What is a playoff quality record?

[URMite]

I had thought that with the possible 12 game schedule that an 8-4 record would give a team a good shot at the playoffs. I'm not as certain anymore. It now seems that if the top teams lose only away games against good teams (a big if) then maybe as many as 1/2 to 2/3 of 8-4 teams may not make the playoffs.

I'm looking at maybe 10 teams having 9 or more wins, and 4 others at 8-3 against good schedules. Which would mean that an 8-4 team would need to have 2 or 3 wins over ranked teams to be one of the last two in. And that the chances of a 7-4 playoff team would be more remote than usual.

Now a few teams could be even more dominant than expected and reduce the number of teams with good records, but to me it seems this year is set up for a good chance of 2 or 3 teams getting woofed based on the schedules alone without a game being played yet.

So, yes it is early but I think the odds of there being a logjam of good teams with 8 wins instead of 7 this year are higher than usual.

[skinny_uncle]

The fact that some teams are playing 12 game schedules and others are only playing 11 will probably confuse things more.

[blueballs]

Only one team has ever received an at large bid with four losses.

Supposedly the committee judges the candidates by the quality of their wins and less than seven division 1 victories (regardless of how weak the teams were, they could be in the high 180's in Sagarin, as long as they're D1, right?) places a team in serious jeopardy of not making the field.

The committe nuances the stated criteria just enough to allow politics to enter into the equation, and that's not even considering seeding, which is an even greater problem.

Bottom line??? Win your conference or win 7 in the CAA and you're okay.

[TheValleyRaider]

Remember that in preseason everyone thinks they're going to win 8-9 games, so the competition looks much tougher now. Injuries, Upsets, the actual playing out of the schedule will thin the ranks. Winning 8 games is a pretty good way to find yourself in the postseason

[stevdock]

I would be surprised if an 8 win team from the power conferences (CAA, SoCon, and MVFC) would be out of the playoffs, but there could be a few from the other conferences. I think there are more quality teams this year than last year and then you add that most teams are playing 12 will definitely cloud that issue a bit. I would be shocked this year if a 7 win team gets into the playoffs with an at-large.

[furman94]

yeah, 8 wins in the Socon usually gets an at large

[OL FU]

I had thought that with the possible 12 game schedule that an 8-4 record would give a team a good shot at the playoffs. I'm not as certain anymore. It now seems that if the top teams lose only away games against good teams (a big if) then maybe as many as 1/2 to 2/3 of 8-4 teams may not make the playoffs.

I'm looking at maybe 10 teams having 9 or more wins, and 4 others at 8-3 against good schedules. Which would mean that an 8-4 team would need to have 2 or 3 wins over ranked teams to be one of the last two in. And that the chances of a 7-4 playoff team would be more remote than usual.

Now a few teams could be even more dominant than expected and reduce the number of teams with good records, but to me it seems this year is set up for a good chance of 2 or 3 teams getting woofed based on the schedules alone without a game being played yet.

So, yes it is early but I think the odds of there being a logjam of good teams with 8 wins instead of 7 this year are higher than usual.

I think you are correct and it certainly is going to depend on how many teams are 8-4. No doubt if you are CAA, Socon, Gateway and probably Big Sky and 8-4 record will get a more positive look than in some other conferences. However, it will depend on your wins. I do wonder though if the committee will be more inclined to include the BSouth and the NEC since they are getting the furture auto-bids?

[PantherRob82]

Keep in mind that auto bid teams can really throw things off.

[slostang]

All I know is that if Cal Poly gets 8 wins in their 11 game schedule they shoud get in. They are playing a fairly tough schedule (2 FBS one of which is a BCS team, 3 ranked teams and no DIIs).

@ San Diego State
Montana
@ McNeese State
@ Northwestern State
University of South Dakota
@ South Dakota State
Idaho State
Southern Utah
North Carolina Central
UC Davis
@ Wisconsin

[OL FU]

All I know is that if Cal Poly gets 8 wins in their 11 game schedule they shoud get in. They are playing a fairly tough schedule (2 FBS one of which is a BCS team, 3 ranked teams and no DIIs).

@ San Diego State
Montana
@ McNeese State
@ Northwestern State
University of South Dakota
@ South Dakota State
Idaho State
Southern Utah
North Carolina Central
UC Davis
@ Wisconsin

I agree. I think usually 8-3 gets in with a good schedule. but 8-4 is a lot different. Many teams have a lower division school on the schedule, ie Furman. 8-4 for us probably means we are 7-4 in the eyes of the committee. xnodx

[furman94]

Unfortunately, that's the truth!

[TheValleyRaider]

Well, remember, lower-division games only count towards the playoffs if you lose (and even then they're not really supposed to count, but look really really bad)

And FBS games are a similar mixed bag, where they really only count if you win (and that's more of a 'tiebreaker' kind of thing for an at-large or seed)

If you want to analyze your schedule, dump those games first, and see how many wins you think you can count in FCS games. That should give you a better sense of where you stand

[Jerbearasu]

There will be confusion though because some teams are playing 12 games and some are playing 11. A 8-3 team could get overlooked by a 9-3 team even if the team that played 12 games had one against a d2 school. I think everyone agrees that 9 wins in the regular season is great but it won't be fair to the teams like Cal-Poly that only lined up 11 games. I personally am glad App scheduled 12 games for this very reason. I would have loved to have a Bye week so the players could rest but I think that extra game will help in the eyes of the selection committee.

[ericsaid]

Depends on the conference the team is from. If they are from the CAA 7-5 will get in. Any other conference must be 9-3 or 9-2 to get in. The head of the selection committee being the head honcho of the CAA lets every last CAA team in that can get in. So in 2010 expect around 6 or 7 CAA teams in the playoffs. Two from SoCon and one from the Big Sky etc...

[skinny_uncle]

Depends on the conference the team is from. If they are from the CAA 7-5 will get in. Any other conference must be 9-3 or 9-2 to get in. The head of the selection committee being the head honcho of the CAA lets every last CAA team in that can get in. So in 2010 expect around 6 or 7 CAA teams in the playoffs. Two from SoCon and one from the Big Sky etc...

So, you are saying CAA bias is replacing east coast bias?
:D

[TheValleyRaider]

Depends on the conference the team is from. If they are from the CAA 7-5 will get in. Any other conference must be 9-3 or 9-2 to get in. The head of the selection committee being the head honcho of the CAA lets every last CAA team in that can get in. So in 2010 expect around 6 or 7 CAA teams in the playoffs. Two from SoCon and one from the Big Sky etc...

This would be funnier if many of you didn't actually believe it xrolleyesx xoopsx

[slostang]

So, you are saying CAA bias is replacing east coast bias?
:D

They are one in the same aren't they.xsmiley_wix

[skinny_uncle]

They are one in the same aren't they.xsmiley_wix
http://i60.photobucket.com/albums/h13/skinny_uncle/sampb808bb914081d21a.jpg

[slostang]

There will be confusion though because some teams are playing 12 games and some are playing 11. A 8-3 team could get overlooked by a 9-3 team even if the team that played 12 games had one against a d2 school. I think everyone agrees that 9 wins in the regular season is great but it won't be fair to the teams like Cal-Poly that only lined up 11 games. I personally am glad App scheduled 12 games for this very reason. I would have loved to have a Bye week so the players could rest but I think that extra game will help in the eyes of the selection committee.

Cal Poly tried hard for a 12th game. They took the Wisconsin game thinking that they could use some of the money (they are getting $500,000) to pay a good guarantee for a 7th home game. They could find no takers. They were also willing to travel on the front end of a home and home contract and still no takers.

They did not want to fill the 12th game with a DII game so they decided to go with 11. I hope they did not schedule themselves out of the playoffs.

[danefan]

Its really hard to compare 8-4 and 8-3 records without known the quality wins and bad losses.

If you win 8 games with 4 bad losses and another team wins 8 games with 3 losses that aren't so bad (close games, FBS, top ranked FCS teams), I think the 8-3 gets in over the 8-4.

I really think it will come down to which team has the really poor loss or that really big win on the record.

We are looking it at now in the abstract. When you put some context around it in week 6 or 7 I think you'll start to thin out the possibilities.

[ericsaid]

This would be funnier if many of you didn't actually believe it xrolleyesx xoopsx


App played 3 of the 5 teams from the SoCon last year and ofcourse beat them all. Some may argue that JMU beat themselves but if App scores 4 touchdowns with 19 minutes of possession that deserve to win.(two missed PAT's and a missed FG). It's ridiculous for the CAA to place 5 teams when the most from any other conference was 2.xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

[TheValleyRaider]

App played 3 of the 5 teams from the SoCon last year and ofcourse beat them all. Some may argue that JMU beat themselves but if App scores 4 touchdowns with 19 minutes of possession that deserve to win.(two missed PAT's and a missed FG). It's ridiculous for the CAA to place 5 teams when the most from any other conference was 2.xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

Then who should have been taken?

[Jerbearasu]

Its really hard to compare 8-4 and 8-3 records without known the quality wins and bad losses.

If you win 8 games with 4 bad losses and another team wins 8 games with 3 losses that aren't so bad (close games, FBS, top ranked FCS teams), I think the 8-3 gets in over the 8-4.

I really think it will come down to which team has the really poor loss or that really big win on the record.

We are looking it at now in the abstract. When you put some context around it in week 6 or 7 I think you'll start to thin out the possibilities.
I agree with you on the 8-3 getting in over an 8-4 team but like I said before what will happen to the 8-3 team vs a 9-3 team with all variables with wins and losses being similar. Remember in previous years with 11 game seasons a lot of good 8-3 teams have been left out. I could see a better 8-3 team left out because there is another team that has 9 wins. IMO, the committee will see a 9 win team from a power conference and let them through.

[Jerbearasu]

Then who should have been taken?

I personally think GSU should have been taken over UNH and that is nothing against New Hampshire. And don't get me wrong I know that GSU played themselves out with the 4 losses but they were also punished for the game against West Georgia while UNH was rewarded by playing a non-scholly d1 team. I just don't believe that a D2 school is that much worse than a non-scholly D1. That was the difference in them getting left out over UNH.

We all complain that FBS schools are afraid to play us and that it is hard for us to pick up those games but then we turn around and are hypocrites towards the D2 schools by punishing the teams in FCS that do play them.

[Big Al]

I know this is gonna get a lot of groans, but Dayton should have been in.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

App played 3 of the 5 teams from the SoCon last year and ofcourse beat them all. Some may argue that JMU beat themselves but if App scores 4 touchdowns with 19 minutes of possession that deserve to win.(two missed PAT's and a missed FG). It's ridiculous for the CAA to place 5 teams when the most from any other conference was 2.xeyebrowx xeyebrowx xeyebrowx

I assume you meant that App beat three of the five CAA teams. Yes App did, they dominated the CAA, but no other SoCon team did. I love how so many of the SoCon folks conveniently forget that Richmond eliminated Wofford on SoCon soil during those same playoffs. And how Hofstra defeated Furman during the season.

It's not ridiculous when the next team in was also a CAA Team (Villanova). It's not ridiculous when play on the field showed that most likely Villanova was more worthy than Eastern Illinois. OMG, that would have been six CAA teams. It's not ridiculous when my Wildcats proved they were worthy on the field in Cedar Falls in that Dome that is viewed as one of the most difficult venues in AGS. It's not ridiculous when one of your SoCon teams can't beat one of two low level SoCon teams to get to 8-3 with seven D-I wins. It's not ridiculous when teams don't realize that scheduling a Pioneer (or MAAC team in the past) is better than scheduling a D-II. (You can disagree all you want, but until you get the NCAA to change, those are the rules we play by. It's no secret agenda. Schedule the Big South, Jacksonville, Morehead State, Davidson, etc. before Mars Hill, West Georgia, Lenoir-R, etc.) It's not ridiculous when multiple other conferences don't have teams that post a resume that is as strong as a 5th CAA team.

How many OOC schedules in the Patriot, OVC, MEAC, Pioneer, NEC, Big South, Pioneer, etc. are going to build a resume that will gain an at large bid over a team from the CAA, SoCon, MVC or Big Sky? (JMHO, but not many.)

I'll throw one other item out. Let's assume that Furman had won at Hofstra and they were also 7-4 like UNH. Don't you think UNH would have still won the bid because they demolished Hofstra on the same field as a close Furman win? I do.

[TheValleyRaider]

I personally think GSU should have been taken over UNH and that is nothing against New Hampshire. And don't get me wrong I know that GSU played themselves out with the 4 losses but they were also punished for the game against West Georgia while UNH was rewarded by playing a non-scholly d1 team. I just don't believe that a D2 school is that much worse than a non-scholly D1. That was the difference in them getting left out over UNH.

West Georgia was 2-9 last year, so not only did Georgia Southern schedule a D-II (which wouldn't have counted anyway), but they scheduled a bad one at that.

It's the Division I Championship, and really, how can we compare games against D-II and D-III competition? We have enough trouble deciding the worth of FBS victories. The Eagles made their bed, and have no one to blame but themselves for lying in it

By the way, as another point of comparision, both UNH and GSU played FBS opponents. Marshall and Colorado State finished 3-9, but UNH beat the Herd

GSU's only argument is that the CAA shouldn't have gotten a 5th bid because a 5th had never been given before. Really, that's not a great argument if the goal is to get the "best teams" in

The team that has a real beef with UNH's inclusion is Villanova, who also finished 7-4 (all D-I wins) but beat UNH head-to-head. Unfortunately for the rest of the FCS world, Villanova is also CAA

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I personally think GSU should have been taken over UNH and that is nothing against New Hampshire. And don't get me wrong I know that GSU played themselves out with the 4 losses but they were also punished for the game against West Georgia while UNH was rewarded by playing a non-scholly d1 team. I just don't believe that a D2 school is that much worse than a non-scholly D1. That was the difference in them getting left out over UNH.

We all complain that FBS schools are afraid to play us and that it is hard for us to pick up those games but then we turn around and are hypocrites towards the D2 schools by punishing the teams in FCS that do play them.

Then why do you folks continue to use UNH in your example rather than Eastern Illinois? They were the worst at-large team in the playoff field!

I'll say it again, the NCAA has established the guidelines (years ago) about the D-I wins. Until you can lobby the NCAA to adjust their views on D-II games, every team that schedules a D-II is taking a risk. And don't forget there is one huge difference about games with FBS -- we're all D-I schools!!!!

Believe me, it would have been much easier for UNH to schedule a D-II school. We have one in our ice hockey league (they play D-I hockey and everything else is D-II) that is about one hour away from UNH. It would be an obvious choice and less costly than bringing a team from NY to NH. This isn't rocket science folks. UNH understood the playoff guidelines and has scheduled accordingly the past few years (Stony Brook and Iona). JMU learned their lesson a few years ago and hasn't scheduled a D-II since.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

West Georgia was 2-9 last year, so not only did Georgia Southern schedule a D-II (which wouldn't have counted anyway), but they scheduled a bad one at that.

It's the Division I Championship, and really, how can we compare games against D-II and D-III competition? We have enough trouble deciding the worth of FBS victories. The Eagles made their bed, and have no one to blame but themselves for lying in it

By the way, as another point of comparision, both UNH and GSU played FBS opponents. Marshall and Colorado State finished 3-9, but UNH beat the Herd

GSU's only argument is that the CAA shouldn't have gotten a 5th bid because a 5th had never been given before. Really, that's not a great argument if the goal is to get the "best teams" in

The team that has a real beef with UNH's inclusion is Villanova, who also finished 7-4 (all D-I wins) but beat UNH head-to-head. Unfortunately for the rest of the FCS world, Villanova is also CAA

For the record, Villanova and UNH didn't play last year so they didn't have that as an argument.

Even if they did, those head-to-head meetings don't always carry the weight one would expect. In 1996 UNH defeated Villanova 34-0 on Nov. 9th and finished with an 8-3 record as did 'Nova. The Main Liners got the playoff bid while the Granite Staters stayed home.

[TheValleyRaider]

For the record, Villanova and UNH didn't play last year so they didn't have that as an argument.

Why did I think they did? :o

Maybe Nova was better against common opponents? I feel there was some reason one could legitimately argue Nova over UNH... xchinscratchx

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Common opponents for the Wildcats last year:

Maine: Nova at home by 7 in OT; UNH at home by 25
JMU: Nova loses in VA by 28; UNH loses in VA by 17
Richmond: Nova loses in VA by 8; UNH loses in VA by 7 (UNH throwing non-hail Mary pass into the end zone as time expires)
Delaware: Nova at home by 16-10; UNH wins at home by 5, 35-30 after having 35-10 lead.
Hofstra: Nova at home by 4; UNH wins in NY by 40-3
UMass: Nova loses in MA by 8 in 4OT; UNH loses in MA by 20

First time I've actually looked at the results versus common opponents and I sure can see why the committee picked UNH. I'll give the Main Liners the UMass advantage, but UNH has a significant advantage versus Hofstra and Maine as well as a slight advantage versus JMU and maybe even Delaware since Santos got hurt during that game and UNH had a huge lead.

[Jerbearasu]

Then why do you folks continue to use UNH in your example rather than Eastern Illinois? They were the worst at-large team in the playoff field!

I'll say it again, the NCAA has established the guidelines (years ago) about the D-I wins. Until you can lobby the NCAA to adjust their views on D-II games, every team that schedules a D-II is taking a risk. And don't forget there is one huge difference about games with FBS -- we're all D-I schools!!!!

Believe me, it would have been much easier for UNH to schedule a D-II school. We have one in our ice hockey league (they play D-I hockey and everything else is D-II) that is about one hour away from UNH. It would be an obvious choice and less costly than bringing a team from NY to NH. This isn't rocket science folks. UNH understood the playoff guidelines and has scheduled accordingly the past few years (Stony Brook and Iona). JMU learned their lesson a few years ago and hasn't scheduled a D-II since.

I use UNH as an example because they were the only 7-4 at-large team to make the field. While we can argue and say EIU was the weakest they were still 8-3. I just think you should look at the quality of a schedule that each team puts together.
I look at GSU's non-conference from last year and it was really good. They played a Coastal Carolina team that was coming off a playoff appearance the year before, South Dakota State that I think everyone can agree was really good, an easy D2 team and a weak Colorado State team but it is still FBS.
UNH OOC schedule was a bad Dartmouth team, a non-scholly d1 team and a weak FBS team. Granted they did beat Marshall and I agree that should mean something when you are playing against any FBS team but you can't tell me their OOC schedule was tougher than GSU.
Georgia Southern's losses were also all close losses. They had two L's in OT, one on a missed FG at the end of the game, and the other they were within a score of sending it to OT even though they were down big in the beginning... UNH lost by 17 pts, 7 pts, 18 pts, and 20 pts. So in 3 of their losses they weren't even really in the game.
I have never tried saying that GSU didn't make their own bed because we all know that in a typical year 4 losses will not cut it if you expect to make the playoffs. But last year was an exception that a 4 loss team had the chance to get the nod and IMO the selection committee got the choice wrong...

[Jerbearasu]

The team that has a real beef with UNH's inclusion is Villanova, who also finished 7-4 (all D-I wins) but beat UNH head-to-head. Unfortunately for the rest of the FCS world, Villanova is also CAA

I think I could agree with you about Villanova having a legitimate case over both GSU and UNH. I have a biased towards SoCon teams and I acknowledge that but Villanova did put together an impressive resume as well. All 4 of their losses were on the road. 3 of their losses were to other playoff contenders and then an FBS loss.

[TheValleyRaider]

I have never tried saying that GSU didn't make their own bed because we all know that in a typical year 4 losses will not cut it if you expect to make the playoffs. But last year was an exception that a 4 loss team had the chance to get the nod and IMO the selection committee got the choice wrong...

The problem with your argument though is that the Selection Committee didn't have a choice

It's not about the losses anymore, it's about the wins

Georgia Southern needed to win 7 D-I games to be eligible. They did not. There were other teams out there with legitimately strong schedules that met the minimum requirement for inclusion when Georgia Southern did not

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I use UNH as an example because they were the only 7-4 at-large team to make the field. While we can argue and say EIU was the weakest they were still 8-3. I just think you should look at the quality of a schedule that each team puts together.

Aren't you contradicting yourself on this one? If we look at who EIU played, then a few teams deserved a bid before them. Just because they were 8-3 shouldn't guarantee them a bid (or a higher seeding if that were to occur) when at large bids are supposed to go to the best teams. Weren't there 9-2 teams that didn't get bids?


I look at GSU's non-conference from last year and it was really good. They played a Coastal Carolina team that was coming off a playoff appearance the year before, South Dakota State that I think everyone can agree was really good, an easy D2 team and a weak Colorado State team but it is still FBS.
UNH OOC schedule was a bad Dartmouth team, a non-scholly d1 team and a weak FBS team. Granted they did beat Marshall and I agree that should mean something when you are playing against any FBS team but you can't tell me their OOC schedule was tougher than GSU.
Georgia Southern's losses were also all close losses. They had two L's in OT, one on a missed FG at the end of the game, and the other they were within a score of sending it to OT even though they were down big in the beginning... UNH lost by 17 pts, 7 pts, 18 pts, and 20 pts. So in 3 of their losses they weren't even really in the game.
I have never tried saying that GSU didn't make their own bed because we all know that in a typical year 4 losses will not cut it if you expect to make the playoffs. But last year was an exception that a 4 loss team had the chance to get the nod and IMO the selection committee got the choice wrong...

You're right, they chose EIU over Villanova. ;)

GA Southern wasn't really in the comparison because they didn't have seven D-I wins. I doubt there was any comparison by the committee between what GA Southern did compared to ANY other team.

If GA Southern had played Jacksonville, Davidson or Morehead State instead of West Georgia then the comparison you made would have taken place. If GA Southern had played Charleston Southern, South Carolina State or Savannah State instead of West Georgia, then the comparison you made would have taken place.

At least it looks like the lesson has been learned because you have Austin Peay on the schedule this year. I'm assuming that they're a full OVC team this year.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I think I could agree with you about Villanova having a legitimate case over both GSU and UNH. I have a biased towards SoCon teams and I acknowledge that but Villanova did put together an impressive resume as well. All 4 of their losses were on the road. 3 of their losses were to other playoff contenders and then an FBS loss.

Did you look at the comparisons in the head to head matches with six common opponents for Villanova and UNH that I posted? The FBS win over Marshall to me more than offsets a bad loss to Northeastern. I think that still says UNH deserved the bid over Villanova. Not to mention that I don't think the committee gave Villanova as much credit for their Delaware win as many AGS members did because it was felt that UD knew they were a lock for the playoffs and didn't bring their "A" game. Also, don't forget that Delaware and Hofstra were both undefeated when UNH beat them in October. I don't see how the Villanova wins over William & Mary, Towson, Lehigh and Penn and loss to Maryland make up for UNH's better performance against the common opponents, their FBS win over Marshall and wins over Rhode Island, Dartmouth and Iona.

[RabidRabbit]

Using last year to predict how things go this year misses that the top two teams of the GWFC last year weren't eligible, but are this year. Using last year's results but this year's eligibility standards would have had NDSU in for sure, and I suspect SDSU (as the GWFC champion over NDSU) as two teams that may be in instead of a 5th CAA or a 2nd OVC. However, these two teams will need to prove themselves in the MoValley.

[ericsaid]

I assume you meant that App beat three of the five CAA teams. Yes App did, they dominated the CAA, but no other SoCon team did. I love how so many of the SoCon folks conveniently forget that Richmond eliminated Wofford on SoCon soil during those same playoffs. And how Hofstra defeated Furman during the season.

It's not ridiculous when the next team in was also a CAA Team (Villanova). It's not ridiculous when play on the field showed that most likely Villanova was more worthy than Eastern Illinois. OMG, that would have been six CAA teams. It's not ridiculous when my Wildcats proved they were worthy on the field in Cedar Falls in that Dome that is viewed as one of the most difficult venues in AGS. It's not ridiculous when one of your SoCon teams can't beat one of two low level SoCon teams to get to 8-3 with seven D-I wins. It's not ridiculous when teams don't realize that scheduling a Pioneer (or MAAC team in the past) is better than scheduling a D-II. (You can disagree all you want, but until you get the NCAA to change, those are the rules we play by. It's no secret agenda. Schedule the Big South, Jacksonville, Morehead State, Davidson, etc. before Mars Hill, West Georgia, Lenoir-R, etc.) It's not ridiculous when multiple other conferences don't have teams that post a resume that is as strong as a 5th CAA team.

How many OOC schedules in the Patriot, OVC, MEAC, Pioneer, NEC, Big South, Pioneer, etc. are going to build a resume that will gain an at large bid over a team from the CAA, SoCon, MVC or Big Sky? (JMHO, but not many.)

I'll throw one other item out. Let's assume that Furman had won at Hofstra and they were also 7-4 like UNH. Don't you think UNH would have still won the bid because they demolished Hofstra on the same field as a close Furman win? I do.

I didn't say anything about the Richmond beating Wofford or about App dominating the CAA. My post's point was to say that there were other deserving teams that had better records than 7-4 or had the same record but played in a different conference that could have progressed. Just to even out the playoffs for all conferences. When almost 1/3 of the playoff spots are taken from ONE conference thats just ridiculous.

[BDKJMU]

I would be surprised if an 8 win team from the power conferences (CAA, SoCon, and MVFC) would be out of the playoffs, but there could be a few from the other conferences. I think there are more quality teams this year than last year and then you add that most teams are playing 12 will definitely cloud that issue a bit. I would be shocked this year if a 7 win team gets into the playoffs with an at-large.

8-3 yes, but 8-4 no. I'm willing to wager that at least one 8-4 team from the big 3 (CAA, So-Con and Gateway) won't make the playoffs.

[BDKJMU]

I would be surprised if an 8 win team from the power conferences (CAA, SoCon, and MVFC) would be out of the playoffs, but there could be a few from the other conferences. I think there are more quality teams this year than last year and then you add that most teams are playing 12 will definitely cloud that issue a bit. I would be shocked this year if a 7 win team gets into the playoffs with an at-large.

8-3 yes, but 8-4 no. I'm willing to wager that at least one 8-4 team from the big 3 (CAA, So-Con and Gateway) won't make the playoffs.

Looking at the 1/2 doz most touted CAA teams pre season, UMass, UR and UD all have 12 games. JMU, Nova, and UNH have 11.

[TheValleyRaider]

IMHO, I still think some of you are overestimating how many teams will actually win 8 games xtwocentsx xpeacex

[BDKJMU]

There will be confusion though because some teams are playing 12 games and some are playing 11. A 8-3 team could get overlooked by a 9-3 team even if the team that played 12 games had one against a d2 school. I think everyone agrees that 9 wins in the regular season is great but it won't be fair to the teams like Cal-Poly that only lined up 11 games. I personally am glad App scheduled 12 games for this very reason. I would have loved to have a Bye week so the players could rest but I think that extra game will help in the eyes of the selection committee.

If the 8-3 team played an all Div one schedule and the 9-3 team had a Div II, they are both 8 Div I wins and 3 Div I losses. That 12th game if its a Div II won't make a difference.

[BDKJMU]

Depends on the conference the team is from. If they are from the CAA 7-5 will get in. Any other conference must be 9-3 or 9-2 to get in. The head of the selection committee being the head honcho of the CAA lets every last CAA team in that can get in. So in 2010 expect around 6 or 7 CAA teams in the playoffs. Two from SoCon and one from the Big Sky etc...

7-5 WON'T get you at At-large from the CAA or any other conference. Even 8-4 from the CAA, So-Con, or Gateway will be iffy.

[BDKJMU]

I didn't say anything about the Richmond beating Wofford or about App dominating the CAA. My post's point was to say that there were other deserving teams that had better records than 7-4 or had the same record but played in a different conference that could have progressed. Just to even out the playoffs for all conferences. When almost 1/3 of the playoff spots are taken from ONE conference thats just ridiculous.

5 out of 12 CAA teams is about 42% of the conference. If the Gateway had taken 3 of (then) 7 teams (which they have before), thats also about 42% of the conference.

Now saw if GSU had gotten the last at large instead of UNH. That would have been 3 of (then) 8 So-Con teams, 37.5% of the conference teams, while leaving 4 of 12 CAA, 33.3% of the conference teams. Now this season if 4 of 12 CAA teams and 3 of now 9 So-Con teams get in, thats the same percentage for both conference's- 33.3%. Same goes if the Gateway or whatever the heck you call it now gets 3 of now 9 teams in.

Bottom line, it doesn't matter how many go from a conference- its about taking the BEST 8 At-large teams preiod. And UNH came within a hair of knocking off then undefeated and #1 UNI on the road. UNH proved they were deserving of that bid.

[URMite]

IMHO, I still think some of you are overestimating how many teams will actually win 8 games xtwocentsx xpeacex

You may be right but it is hard to predict a road win against a good team. Therefore before the season starts, it looks like a lot of 9 win and 8 win teams. Road wins, FBS wins, and upsets by unexpected teams can change that.

I think the idea that newly eligible teams (especially the Dakota STs) may impact the quality of the resumes of the last teams in is a very valid one. If they had been eligible last season NDSU would almost certainly have been in and SDSU at 7-4 and a strong schedule would have received serious consideration as well.

The 11 vs 12 games schedule does complicate things. If you were 8-3, and added a win against a weak DI team, it might only have limited benefit. But if you were 7-4 and added that same win (something we might do, our last schedule additions were VMI and georgetown) then you give yourself a fighting chance of getting a spot, instead of a remote one. It is just that, I had thought only one 8-4 team might be left out and now there seems like a real possibility that there could be 2 or 3. xeekx

[89Hen]

Only one team has ever received an at large bid with four losses.
Didn't see anyone else question this, but I seem to recall last year that UNH was the third team to have been chosen for an at-large with 4 losses. I know one was AppSt. Just went back and looked and they went in 1992 with four (two I-A's). Can't remember who the other was... YSU, Marshall, or somebody like that. xpeacex

[PurpleandGold]

I thought a 7-4 Montana State with a DII loss (Chadron State) went two to three years ago.

[Eight Legger]

It would be interesting to me to see what happened if we went 8-4 with wins against JMU, UMass, Elon, UVA, Delaware, Maine, Hofstra and Villanova but losses to Georgetown, Towson, W&M and VMI...

Of course that would never happen, but I suspect we'd still make it even then.

I think most 8-4 teams from power conferences will make it in, as long as they have a few wins against top 15 teams and no really bad losses.

[89Hen]

losses to Georgetown, Towson, W&M and VMI... no really bad losses.
Ummm. xeyebrowx

[89Hen]

I thought a 7-4 Montana State with a DII loss (Chadron State) went two to three years ago.
MSU got the BSC auto two years in a row with bad records. They would have never gotten an at-large those years.

[ericsaid]

5 out of 12 CAA teams is about 42% of the conference. If the Gateway had taken 3 of (then) 7 teams (which they have before), thats also about 42% of the conference.

Now saw if GSU had gotten the last at large instead of UNH. That would have been 3 of (then) 8 So-Con teams, 37.5% of the conference teams, while leaving 4 of 12 CAA, 33.3% of the conference teams. Now this season if 4 of 12 CAA teams and 3 of now 9 So-Con teams get in, thats the same percentage for both conference's- 33.3%. Same goes if the Gateway or whatever the heck you call it now gets 3 of now 9 teams in.

Bottom line, it doesn't matter how many go from a conference- its about taking the BEST 8 At-large teams preiod. And UNH came within a hair of knocking off then undefeated and #1 UNI on the road. UNH proved they were deserving of that bid.

Bottom line is, 5 teams from one conference and 16 playoff sports equals almost 1/3 which is too many considering the most any other conference got were 2 teams.xnonono2x

[TheValleyRaider]

Bottom line is, 5 teams from one conference and 16 playoff sports equals almost 1/3 which is too many considering the most any other conference got were 2 teams.xnonono2x

Let's ask again:

Who else should have gotten in?

It's a simple question. There are 16 spots. The fact that 4 of the at-larges were available for the CAA is not their fault. The committee was not going to reduce the field just because "5 from one conference is too many"

So who should they have taken?

[IndianaAppMan]

I thought a 7-4 Montana State with a DII loss (Chadron State) went two to three years ago.

Wait, so let me get this straight.

Montana State goes 7-3 against DI, 0-1 against DII, and that's deemed playoff-worthy.

Georgia Southern goes 6-4 against DI, 1-0 against DII, and that's not deemed playoff-worthy. They were also broke App's home winning-steak.

In other words, it's more harmful to your playoff chances when you lose to a DI team than a DII team. There's definitely something screwy about that.

My assessment of Ga Southern's problem: had the SoCon not been so strong, Elon, Ga. Southern, or The Citadel easily could have made the playoffs. Outside of FBS games, the SoCon served up their only losses.

[Eight Legger]

Ummm. xeyebrowx

Obviously those would be BAD losses, which is why I asked the original question. My follow up was not related to the first part of that equation. Sorry if it came across that way.

[89Hen]

Wait, so let me get this straight.

Montana State goes 7-3 against DI, 0-1 against DII, and that's deemed playoff-worthy...
Please see my response to that issue. MSU was NOT an at-large team that year.

[danefan]

Wait, so let me get this straight.

Montana State goes 7-3 against DI, 0-1 against DII, and that's deemed playoff-worthy.

Georgia Southern goes 6-4 against DI, 1-0 against DII, and that's not deemed playoff-worthy. They were also broke App's home winning-steak.

In other words, it's more harmful to your playoff chances when you lose to a DI team than a DII team. There's definitely something screwy about that.

My assessment of Ga Southern's problem: had the SoCon not been so strong, Elon, Ga. Southern, or The Citadel easily could have made the playoffs. Outside of FBS games, the SoCon served up their only losses.

Its nearly impossible to compare teams and playoff credentials from year to year. The reason is because records do not live in the abstract. The strength of one teams record (in terms of playoff consideration) is directly related to other teams in the mix. Montana State's record from 2006 was considered in the context of the rest of the FCS world at that time, just as GSU was in 2007. The committee doesn't sit there and say well Montana State got in last year with this record so GSU should get in this year with this record. They say what are the best 8 teams with 7+ DI wins that have not received auto bids. That's what it comes down to.

[danefan]

Please see my response to that issue. MSU was NOT an at-large team that year.

What year are you talking about?

Gosh....records and stats are so much easier to find when collegesportingnews.com is up and running.

[Poly Pigskin]

Please see my response to that issue. MSU was NOT an at-large team that year.

Actually they were. Montana won the Big Sky in 06.

[ericsaid]

Let's ask again:

Who else should have gotten in?

It's a simple question. There are 16 spots. The fact that 4 of the at-larges were available for the CAA is not their fault. The committee was not going to reduce the field just because "5 from one conference is too many"

So who should they have taken?


Why not YSU? They had UNI 13-0 until the 4th quarter. Your missing my point completely. It's not a question of who but a statement saying that having more than twice as many as any other conference is just ridiculous.

[danefan]

Why not YSU? They had UNI 13-0 until the 4th quarter.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but YSU did not have 7 DI wins did they?

[OL FU]

Wait, so let me get this straight.

Montana State goes 7-3 against DI, 0-1 against DII, and that's deemed playoff-worthy.

Georgia Southern goes 6-4 against DI, 1-0 against DII, and that's not deemed playoff-worthy. They were also broke App's home winning-steak.

In other words, it's more harmful to your playoff chances when you lose to a DI team than a DII team. There's definitely something screwy about that.

My assessment of Ga Southern's problem: had the SoCon not been so strong, Elon, Ga. Southern, or The Citadel easily could have made the playoffs. Outside of FBS games, the SoCon served up their only losses.

Also, while I don't think it is a rule it is guidance that teams should have 7 DI wins. Everyone knows it and people schedule accordingly.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Wait, so let me get this straight.

Montana State goes 7-3 against DI, 0-1 against DII, and that's deemed playoff-worthy.

Georgia Southern goes 6-4 against DI, 1-0 against DII, and that's not deemed playoff-worthy. They were also broke App's home winning-steak.

In other words, it's more harmful to your playoff chances when you lose to a DI team than a DII team. There's definitely something screwy about that.

My assessment of Ga Southern's problem: had the SoCon not been so strong, Elon, Ga. Southern, or The Citadel easily could have made the playoffs. Outside of FBS games, the SoCon served up their only losses.

Montana State had an FBS win over Colorado that same year.

Correct me if I'm wrong but last year, Elon was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (W. VA. Wesleyan), GA Southern was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (West Georgia), and The Citadel was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (Webber International). I don't think the problem was SoCon teams beating up on each other. xwhistlex xwhistlex

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Bottom line is, 5 teams from one conference and 16 playoff sports equals almost 1/3 which is too many considering the most any other conference got were 2 teams.xnonono2x


Let's ask again:

Who else should have gotten in?

It's a simple question. There are 16 spots. The fact that 4 of the at-larges were available for the CAA is not their fault. The committee was not going to reduce the field just because "5 from one conference is too many"

So who should they have taken?

Exactly. The committee's responsibility is to take the best eight at-large teams that meet the guidelines. Their job isn't to balance out bids among leagues or to give out a charity bid to a team that didn't play a worthy schedule. (Sure would have been an easy year to do the latter.)

At the same time, I'm not an arrogant fool. If there had been other eligible teams from the SoCon, Gateway, BSC, SLC, etc., then there is a very good chance that one of them would have been selected before UNH, Villanova and EIU.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Also, while I don't think it is a rule it is guidance that teams should have 7 DI wins. Everyone knows it and people schedule accordingly.

And it's been a pretty clear guideline for a few years now. Hasn't YSU been burned at least twice now, 2005 and 2007? JMU was burnt once a couple of years ago. Didn't Mickey start a campaign with the press about how his 7-4 team was deserving despite only having six D-I wins? He was correct about how good his team was, but he didn't get an at-large bid. For the record, the CAA only got two bids that year (2005). Wasn't UMass also 7-4 that year with only six D-I wins as well.

No doubt that the CAA teams got the message loud and clear after 2005. xpeacex

[TheValleyRaider]

Why not YSU? They had UNI 13-0 until the 4th quarter. Your missing my point completely. It's not a question of who but a statement saying that having more than twice as many as any other conference is just ridiculous.

But is is a question of who

The committee has guidelines to follow, and the guidelines say 7 D-I wins is the minimum. Once you've culled the sides that didn't reach the minimum, then you have a pool to select from

danefan said it best: records do not exist in the abstract. Were there another team worthy of selection, you no doubt would have seen them chosen over UNH. The problem is, there wasn't such a team last year

[stevdock]

Should have made the exception to the rule and let us meet you all in the playoffs. UNH's gameplan and execution though showed that they were a worthy playoff team.

[ericsaid]

Should have made the exception to the rule and let us meet you all in the playoffs. UNH's gameplan and execution though showed that they were a worthy playoff team.

Ofcourse they were worthy. Everyone in the playoff's are worthy, I personally was rooting for them over UNI because UNI was obviously overrated even though they went undefeated and beat ISU. Sad thing is the middle pack of the CAA beat the upper echalon of the former Gateway conference. The SoCon and CAA are the two conferences becoming much stronger that i've seen while the Missouri Valley and PFL and SLC and OVC remain stagnant.

[Poly Pigskin]

Ofcourse they were worthy. Everyone in the playoff's are worthy, I personally was rooting for them over UNI because UNI was obviously overrated even though they went undefeated and beat ISU. Sad thing is the middle pack of the CAA beat the upper echalon of the former Gateway conference. The SoCon and CAA are the two conferences becoming much stronger that i've seen while the Missouri Valley and PFL and SLC and OVC remain stagnant.

Yeah, cause adding NDSU and SDSU definitely qualifies as remaining stagnant... xconfusedx

[TheValleyRaider]

Ofcourse they were worthy. Everyone in the playoff's are worthy, I personally was rooting for them over UNI because UNI was obviously overrated even though they went undefeated and beat ISU. Sad thing is the middle pack of the CAA beat the upper echalon of the former Gateway conference. The SoCon and CAA are the two conferences becoming much stronger that i've seen while the Missouri Valley and PFL and SLC and OVC remain stagnant.

Hey Flyer!

Someone just put the Pioneer League in the same rarified air as the Southland and OVC!

xrulesx

[IndianaAppMan]

Montana State had an FBS win over Colorado that same year.

Correct me if I'm wrong but last year, Elon was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (W. VA. Wesleyan), GA Southern was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (West Georgia), and The Citadel was 7-4 but only had six D-I wins (Webber International). I don't think the problem was SoCon teams beating up on each other. xwhistlex xwhistlex

That's exactly what the problem was.
The Citadel played 11 games. They lost an FBS game and beat a DII team, which basically didn't count. That left 9 games to get 7 wins. They took care of business with the OOC games; however, in the SoCon, they ran into problems.
Exact same story for Elon and GSU, except that both those teams beat one of the conference champs.

None of them got 7 DI wins, and it was thanks largely to the strength of the SoCon.

If the reason those teams missed the playoffs wasn't due to the SoCon beating up on itself, then what was?

[danefan]

That's exactly what the problem was.
The Citadel played 11 games. They lost an FBS game and beat a DII team, which basically didn't count. That left 9 games to get 7 wins. They took care of business with the OOC games; however, in the SoCon, they ran into problems.
Exact same story for Elon and GSU, except that both those teams beat one of the conference champs.

None of them got 7 DI wins, and it was thanks largely to the strength of the SoCon.

Or

None of them got 7 DI wins, and it was thanks largely to poor scheduling.

Don't schedule sub DI games. Its pretty simple. I know the argument (we treat DII like FBS treats us, etc...). But the rules are clear. Lobby to change them, but while they are in effect, you have to play by them. If you don't, you have no right to complain about it.

The same goes for PFL. Schedule up or don't complain.

[IndianaAppMan]

Or

None of them got 7 DI wins, and it was thanks largely to poor scheduling.

Don't schedule sub DI games. Its pretty simple. I know the argument (we treat DII like FBS treats us, etc...). But the rules are clear. Lobby to change them, but while they are in effect, you have to play by them. If you don't, you have no right to complain about it.

The same goes for PFL. Schedule up or don't complain.

tell that to Delaware for their westchester game. had they played a tougher FBS team as Elon (South Florida) and The Citadel (Wisconsin) did, they'd have been sitting at home during the playoffs with 6 DI wins rather than advanced to the national finals.

Think about this for a second: if Corey Lynch doesn't block that field goal, App finishes 8-3, or with 7 DI wins. Lenoir-Rhyne is DII. If App also doesn't get the last-minute interception against the supposed SoCon weakling Furman, they're also outside of the playoffs. Fact is that Furman stunk it up against Hofstra. They lost a game they never should have lost, but that stuff happens in the game of football. They showed their true colors in the ASU game.

[danefan]

tell that to Delaware for their westchester game. had they played a tougher FBS team as Elon (South Florida) and The Citadel (Wisconsin) did, they'd have been sitting at home during the playoffs with 6 DI wins rather than advanced to the national finals.

Think about this for a second: if Corey Lynch doesn't block that field goal, App finishes 8-3, or with 7 DI wins. Lenoir-Rhyne is DII. If App also doesn't get the last-minute interception against the supposed SoCon weakling Furman, they're also outside of the playoffs. Fact is that Furman stunk it up against Hofstra. They lost a game they never should have lost, but that stuff happens in the game of football. They showed their true colors in the ASU game.


If that had happened, none of those teams would have had anything to complain about.

Listen, I'm not saying the system is right. I advocate for a counter-type system for counting DII games for FCS playoff eligibility similar to that for counting FCS games for FBS bowl eligibility. In my perfect world, all DI teams would count and DII teams with 30 scholarships would count the same as DI teams.

[IndianaAppMan]

My case has been all along that I think the SoCon is stronger than the CAA. I base that on the problems middle- and lower-tier teams presented the national champions as compared with what the CAA teams did.

For those who insist on counting the JMU game as a CAA win against ASU, then they also must count the Furman game as a win as well. That would make the CAA 1-2 against App, and the SoCon 3-4.

But all this evidence leads just to my opinion. Until there is enough CAA-SoCon games, which even this year will hardly be sufficient, no definitive conclusion can be reached.

I mean, this isn't a case of the SEC-vs.-Big Ten or SEC-vs.-ACC, where a host of games between the conferences occur annually to determine which conference is better. Any rational person will realize that both conferences are top-notch when looking at more than mere playoff berths.

[Jerbearasu]

Exactly. The committee's responsibility is to take the best eight at-large teams that meet the guidelines.

That isn't completely true. I think everyone can agree that in 2006 Wofford was one of the best teams in the nation at the end of the season. Absolutely, nobody wanted a piece of them but they were 7-4 with a bunch of good 8-3 teams in the equation. Wofford met the "guidelines" with 7 D1 wins (which I don't think is a rule but it is preferred) and they were definitely one of the top 8 at-large teams. Their record at the beginning of the season got them in the whole so it is not totally about taking the best 8 teams that are available. There are other circumstances that come into the mix.

[813Jag]

tell that to Delaware for their westchester game. had they played a tougher FBS team as Elon (South Florida) and The Citadel (Wisconsin) did, they'd have been sitting at home during the playoffs with 6 DI wins rather than advanced to the national finals.

Think about this for a second: if Corey Lynch doesn't block that field goal, App finishes 8-3, or with 7 DI wins. Lenoir-Rhyne is DII. If App also doesn't get the last-minute interception against the supposed SoCon weakling Furman, they're also outside of the playoffs. Fact is that Furman stunk it up against Hofstra. They lost a game they never should have lost, but that stuff happens in the game of football. They showed their true colors in the ASU game.
I have no dog in the fight, but Delaware beat Navy.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

tell that to Delaware for their westchester game. had they played a tougher FBS team as Elon (South Florida) and The Citadel (Wisconsin) did, they'd have been sitting at home during the playoffs with 6 DI wins rather than advanced to the national finals.

Think about this for a second: if Corey Lynch doesn't block that field goal, App finishes 8-3, or with 7 DI wins. Lenoir-Rhyne is DII. If App also doesn't get the last-minute interception against the supposed SoCon weakling Furman, they're also outside of the playoffs. Fact is that Furman stunk it up against Hofstra. They lost a game they never should have lost, but that stuff happens in the game of football. They showed their true colors in the ASU game.

I think the Delaware fans know they are playing with fire with D-II West Chester on their schedule. So far they haven't got burnt by having a D-II. Knowing they have that D-II on their schedule, they chose to schedule a regional FBS that was also a winnable game. Had they lost that game, then I think you would have seen a different performance in the Villanova game. And if they had still lost to Nova, they would have acknowledged that they missed the playoffs because of the game versus West Chester. One of these years it is going to bite them in the arse.

I know you find this difficult to believe, but CAA teams beat each other up all season despite not playing all members of the league. There are enough quality teams to provide a very challenging eight game league slate no matter who you play. Knowing how difficult that league schedule is, most CAA teams don't schedule D-II schools and risk that seven win threshold. Delaware happens to be in a long term contract with a regional school that used to be a formidable rival back in the D-II days. UNH also used to play West Chester during our D-II days.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

That isn't completely true. I think everyone can agree that in 2006 Wofford was one of the best teams in the nation at the end of the season. Absolutely, nobody wanted a piece of them but they were 7-4 with a bunch of good 8-3 teams in the equation. Wofford met the "guidelines" with 7 D1 wins (which I don't think is a rule but it is preferred) and they were definitely one of the top 8 at-large teams. Their record at the beginning of the season got them in the whole so it is not totally about taking the best 8 teams that are available. There are other circumstances that come into the mix.

I don't know all the details but I thought it was a couple of years earlier that Wofford was passed by and the term Woffed was born. But you know what, the Committee thought they chose the best eight at large teams. Sometimes we as fans don't agree with them and sometimes they make mistakes, but they still have the mission to select what they think are the best eight teams.

While the seven D-I wins is technically only a guideline, the reality of the past few seasons is that it is in all intent and purpose a rule. As long as there have been teams with seven D-I wins, the committee hasn't considered any teams with only six D-I wins. We probably won't know until the field expands how rigid a threshold that is. For example, would they choose a team with a lessor SOS before dipping into the six D-I win teams? Say UNH didn't have the seven D-I wins and instead for example they chose a team with a 10-1, 9-2 or 8-3 record with a lessor SOS. That would have made it crystal clear that the seven D-I wins was more of a rule than a guideline. Until that happens we won't know, but it is very clear to me that seven D-I wins is a very, very real threshold to make the playoffs.

[URMite]

Why not YSU? They had UNI 13-0 until the 4th quarter. Your missing my point completely. It's not a question of who but a statement saying that having more than twice as many as any other conference is just ridiculous.

Is that without regard to record? It is possible (but remote) to have 5 teams in the CAA with 9-2 records and both losses to top 25 or FBS teams. Would you intentional exclude one in that case?

At one point, it looked like we were going to have 4 x 9-2 and 2 x 8-3 last season.

[URMite]

That's exactly what the problem was.
The Citadel played 11 games. They lost an FBS game and beat a DII team, which basically didn't count. That left 9 games to get 7 wins. They took care of business with the OOC games; however, in the SoCon, they ran into problems.
Exact same story for Elon and GSU, except that both those teams beat one of the conference champs.

None of them got 7 DI wins, and it was thanks largely to the strength of the SoCon.

If the reason those teams missed the playoffs wasn't due to the SoCon beating up on itself, then what was?

Without the DII game, they would have had 10 games to get 7 wins, so wasn't that what caused the problem?

[BDKJMU]

Why not YSU? They had UNI 13-0 until the 4th quarter. Your missing my point completely. It's not a question of who but a statement saying that having more than twice as many as any other conference is just ridiculous.

YSU only had 6 Div I wins- therefore ineligible.

[WrenFGun]

I'm a little tired of UNH Wildcat Alum having to hold this entire argument up.

I don't know where people were when I started campaigning for UNH after they smashed Maine in the last week of the season, but we went over it in great depth. Colgate was going to get into the field at 8-3 but lost to Holy Cross. That left both HC and Colgate at 7-4 without the calibur of schedule that UNH had. Keep in mind, folks, that UNH played @Richmond, @JMU, @UMass, @Marshall, @Hofstra and home against Delaware.

The only two teams that can have a justifiable argument for inclusion were Norfolk State (8-3) and Villanova. Norfolk State did not have an impressive win on their resume, and it was said that UNH got in over 'Nova for the FBS win. That said, it was questionable that UNH, at 4-4 in the CAA, got in over 'Nova at 5-3 in the CAA. 'Nova was, potentially, the more deserving candidate, though both UNH and 'Nova were more impressive than EIU.

I understand that the CAA got a lot in, almost 1/2, but none of Furman, GSU, YSU, WIU, The Citadel or Elon did enough to merit inclusion. Period.

As for this season, I would think the committee would look more favorably on 8-3 than 8-4, assuming no DII wins, as the second team just had more opportunities to get it.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

All things equal (e.g., same number of FCS/FBS/DII games), 8-3 > 8-4. Why? Simple, win percentage. Simple math will tell you that.

More opportunities? I dunno. An 8-4 team had one more opportunity. To win or lose. 9-3 > 8-3 Again, win percentage is the name of the game here.

Of course, this all goes out the window when comparing between conferences due to schedule strength, etc. No clear concise answer, thus a selection committee. They usually get it 90% right. That's as good as any human system will ever get.

[Jerbearasu]

I don't know all the details but I thought it was a couple of years earlier that Wofford was passed by and the term Woffed was born. But you know what, the Committee thought they chose the best eight at large teams. Sometimes we as fans don't agree with them and sometimes they make mistakes, but they still have the mission to select what they think are the best eight teams.

I completely agree with you here. It is all about opinions when it comes down to what should be important when choosing the playoff teams and we all have our own thoughts on this matter. I personally look at strength of schedule. The CAA top-to-bottom has been the most competitive conference over the last 10 years or so. While the SoCon is also a tough league it is very top heavy with the bottom 2-3 teams being bad but the top 2-3 being exceptional.

I think for the most part everyone knows what they are going to get competition wise in their conference so their OOC needs to reflect that as well. That is why we say teams like Coastal, Dayton and San Diego from years past need to schedule quality teams in their OOC if they expect to make the playoffs. If they do they will get rewarded like Coastal did in 06.

I only feel that Ga. Southern's OOC was more competitive than UNH. That being said they didn't have a win against an FBS like UNH did and that deserves major consideration as well. In the end, we all know that the usual benchmark for the playoffs has been 8-3 except in an off-year like last year and GSU simply did not do that so it is not like they were completely snubbed.

IMO, everyone tries to schedule at least one easy home game that they can make some money on and get a little practice in. I just don't see much of a difference in playing a non-scholly FCS team as compared to playing a D2 school. That is not saying non-scholly's are bad bc they can beat programs on any day too but so can D2 schools.

The year you were talking about Wofford getting snubbed was back in 02. They had beaten us in our place and had the same record as us but were left out. They also had a pretty competitive schedule moreso than some of the other teams that were included. Before that year they had never really been considered a major contender to make the playoffs and many felt that was a major consideration in how the committee chose the teams that year.

[Tealblood]

CCU in my opinion needs to be at a minimum 9-3 for the playoffs if we go 10-2 we are in easy 9-3 we should be in

[X-Factor]

All I know is that if Cal Poly gets 8 wins in their 11 game schedule they shoud get in. They are playing a fairly tough schedule (2 FBS one of which is a BCS team, 3 ranked teams and no DIIs).

@ San Diego State
Montana
@ McNeese State
@ Northwestern State
University of South Dakota
@ South Dakota State
Idaho State
Southern Utah
North Carolina Central
UC Davis
@ Wisconsin

actually, South Dakota still counts as a DII. We did at the same point in transition.

[elcid96]

I had thought that with the possible 12 game schedule that an 8-4 record would give a team a good shot at the playoffs. I'm not as certain anymore. It now seems that if the top teams lose only away games against good teams (a big if) then maybe as many as 1/2 to 2/3 of 8-4 teams may not make the playoffs.

I'm looking at maybe 10 teams having 9 or more wins, and 4 others at 8-3 against good schedules. Which would mean that an 8-4 team would need to have 2 or 3 wins over ranked teams to be one of the last two in. And that the chances of a 7-4 playoff team would be more remote than usual.

Now a few teams could be even more dominant than expected and reduce the number of teams with good records, but to me it seems this year is set up for a good chance of 2 or 3 teams getting woofed based on the schedules alone without a game being played yet.

So, yes it is early but I think the odds of there being a logjam of good teams with 8 wins instead of 7 this year are higher than usual.

Depends on the conference. Some schools only have 1-2 losses and don't get invited because of their conference.