A10 Playoff Nightmare

[DTSpider]

I've started a new thread since the old one got mucked up. Out of the 6 teams at the top I see two scenarios which could be very interesting:

1. UMass, UNH & Richmond finish 7-1 and JMU at 6-2.
2. UMass & Richmond at 7-1 and JMU & UNH at 6-2.

What I think makes it interesting is that in these scenarios Richmond would have to beat JMU. Come playoff time if only 3 A10 teams can get in, which 3 do you take?

I think that UMass is a lock. I also think that UNH would be tough to overlook. Which means Richmond vs. JMU. If Richmond wins the head-to-head does that give the Spiders enough to push the defending national champs with an 8-3 record out of the playoffs?

[bandl]

I've started a new thread since the old one got mucked up. Out of the 6 teams at the top I see two scenarios which could be very interesting:

1. UMass, UNH & Richmond finish 7-1 and JMU at 6-2.
2. UMass & Richmond at 7-1 and JMU & UNH at 6-2.

What I think makes it interesting is that in these scenarios Richmond would have to beat JMU. Come playoff time if only 3 A10 teams can get in, which 3 do you take?

I think that UMass is a lock. I also think that UNH would be tough to overlook. Which means Richmond vs. JMU. If Richmond wins the head-to-head does that give the Spiders enough to push the defending national champs with an 8-3 record out of the playoffs?

Richmond running the tables against Hofstra, @JMU, VMI, @Towson, W&M to go 7-1?? I doubt it. :cool: UR may be on the rise this year, but I don't think you should be looking past Hostra right now (let alone looking ahead to the likes of JMU and W&M). Your 'nightmare' scenario (7-1 in conference play) could turn into a real nightmare with a 2nd conference loss to Hofstra tomorrow with 3 more conference games to go.

THere is alot of A-10 football to go...let's take it one week at a time, eh? ;) Win against Hofstra (and hopefully JMU wins against UD!!!) and then the A-10 picture will be a little clearer...not much though!!! :D

[jmuroller]

Hofstra is underrated.

[OL FU]

I planned to look at all my secret computer files last night when I got home, but, alas, forgot. With Cal-Poly looking almost certain, CCU more than likely a certainty unless they stumble once. If, and I don't think it will happen, SC State beats Hampton this weekend, the MEAC may have two teams in the playoffs. It is hard to imagine the A-10 getting more than three and even possible they only get two teams in (although I think three is more likely). I'll take UMass, UNH and JMU (The defending champion at 8-3 is tough to overlook). I still think W&M is very much a contender for post-season. All a team can do is win, but so much this year depends on how the other conferences shake out.

A-10 needs to pull for Hampton, hope GSU losses another one ( if they don't and they beat Furman you have two 8-3 SoCon teams on 9-2 SoCon team and ASU as the conference champ(of course assuming those three win the rest of the games they should win)), hope MSU or Portland State has more than three losses and hope two clear leaders in the Gateway emerge.

[bandl]

Richmond running the tables against Hofstra, @JMU, VMI, @Towson, W&M to go 7-1?? I doubt it. :cool: UR may be on the rise this year, but I don't think you should be looking past Hostra right now (let alone looking ahead to the likes of JMU and W&M). Your 'nightmare' scenario (7-1 in conference play) could turn into a real nightmare with a 2nd conference loss to Hofstra tomorrow with 3 more conference games to go.

THere is alot of A-10 football to go...let's take it one week at a time, eh? ;) Win against Hofstra (and hopefully JMU wins against UD!!!) and then the A-10 picture will be a little clearer...not much though!!! :D

And I should add....where's W&M in your nightmare scenario??? Not even a consideration for a playoff spot in the A-10??

[jmuroller]

I see where @5-6 teams gunning for the final 2-3 spots. Boy is it going to be close this year.

[LacesOut]

Yeah, where's W&M??

And I can't see anyone running the table in that conference.

JMO, but it's just too dang early to speculate on whom will be in the playoffs. I'll just sit back and watch and let the teams decide it........on the field.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think that UMass is a lock...

I hardly think they're a lock. After Maine this week they are @Army, UNH, @Hofstra, and @Delaware in the Tub is a brutal schedule, and they have to win 2 of these games to make it. Any team in I-AA could lose 3 games to this crew.

[GannonFan]

I think the A10 only getting 2 in the playoffs would be almost impossible - they'll more than likely have more than 3 teams that reach the 8 win plateau and keeping in mind that it is a 12 team conference, only getting 2 teams in would be only 16% of the conference getting in. When you see the Gateway and Southern maybe getting up to 3 teams in that would be 33% of their conference getting in. I think 3 teams from the A10 is a lock - the 4th would only come with a Coastal loss to anyone along with a Cal Poly collapse along with a one-bid Patriot along with a one-bid MEAC along with... you get the idea, pretty much unlikely. But 3 is almost a mortal lock.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

When you see the Gateway and Southern maybe getting up to 3 teams...

3 Gateway teams, I buy. But the Southern? They may only get 1 bid if App St. loses and Furman wins out! How, pray tell, does the SoCon get 3 teams this year?

[Tribe4SF]

Somebody will probably get caught napping. W&M has once already, and almost last week. I'm donating 50 cases of No-Doz! :eek: :hyped:

[Umass74]

I wonder if strength of schedule will hurt JMU.

Suppose that they go 8-3 (only one more loss). How will the the fact that two of those wins are against Loch Haven and Delaware State affect the committee?? 6-3 against major I-AA teams may not be impressive.

Note to JMU fans, I'm not, repeat not, taking a shot at the Dukes. I've said before I think they are an excellent team. This is a strength-of-schedule thought only...

[GannonFan]

3 Gateway teams, I buy. But the Southern? They may only get 1 bid if App St. loses and Furman wins out! How, pray tell, does the SoCon get 3 teams this year?

Furman only has one loss so far , Appalachian St will have 3 at the least as they still have LSU left, but if they win at Wofford this weekend it's reasonable that they could end up with 3 losses (Chatty is at App St this year so little chance of last years fiasco happening again), and Georgia Southern, despite their lackluster play, only has 3 losses and gets Furman at home. Furman with 2 losses and App St and GSU with 3 losses could, depending on the rest of the nation, see 3 teams from the SOCON in the playoffs. It isn't unrealistic, maybe just not likely. Not impossible though.

[OL FU]

I am not arguing for three from the SoCon. But it is possible. ASU and GSU could be 8-3 and Furman could be 8-3 or better. (Obviously, I am hoping GSU is no better then 7-4 since our game is in the future)

I also see three as a more likely number from the A-10. Just do the math. 8 at large bids. If Cal-Poly and CCU get in then there is 6 to go. One from the Southlands, Gateway, BSC, SoCon, A-10. Only one more left. Not a lot of room for error.

[GannonFan]

I wonder if strength of schedule will hurt JMU.

Suppose that they go 8-3 (only one more loss). How will the the fact that two of those wins are against Loch Haven and Delaware State affect the committee?? 6-3 against major I-AA teams may not be impressive.

Note to JMU fans, I'm not, repeat not, taking a shot at the Dukes. I've said before I think they are an excellent team. This is a strength-of-schedule thought only...

Del St may not end up being that much of a drag - Del St's 3 losses are to Coastal (potential playoff team), JMU (potential playoff team), and Hampton (potential playoff team). If they win out the rest of the way (also being SC St), that win doesn't look as weak as it normally would. Obviously still not a very strong win but certainly far better than a Lock Haven or an Albany. W&M has both Liberty and VMI on their OOC list so they're not exactly boasting a really strong SOS either - a lot will have to do with the JMU/W&M game in a few weeks and whether UMass or UNH lose to anyone else besides each other.

[OL FU]

3 Gateway teams, I buy. But the Southern? They may only get 1 bid if App St. loses and Furman wins out! How, pray tell, does the SoCon get 3 teams this year?

You may be right but there is a better chance of the SoCon getting three than the PL getting 2. :D

[LacesOut]

Del St may not end up being that much of a drag - Del St's 3 losses are to Coastal (potential playoff team), JMU (potential playoff team), and Hampton (potential playoff team).

WAR DEL STATE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GO HORNETS!! lol

[Lehigh Football Nation]

You may be right but there is a better chance of the SoCon getting three than the PL getting 2. :D

I hope not! :D I think Lehigh gets in if Holy Cross and Lehigh both run the table. Having said that, I'm a big fan of Hampton this weekend... and I'm also hoping WCU gets the Jug again this year too... :D That would help everybody in the at-large race.

[GannonFan]

I hope not! :D I think Lehigh gets in if Holy Cross and Lehigh both run the table. Having said that, I'm a big fan of Hampton this weekend... and I'm also hoping WCU gets the Jug again this year too... :D That would help everybody in the at-large race.

The game is in Boone so that would probably favor the Mountaineers.

[OL FU]

I hope not! :D I think Lehigh gets in if Holy Cross and Lehigh both run the table. Having said that, I'm a big fan of Hampton this weekend... and I'm also hoping WCU gets the Jug again this year too... :D That would help everybody in the at-large race.

I am pulllng for the Bulldogs but I think Hampton is a better pick. What you should really be hoping for is Furman beating GSU :D and VMI pulling the upset over CCU.

Me, I am still concentrating on Elon. Yep, go ahead and laugh but with Furman's 2005 "Cardiac Kids" routine, I sweat them all.

[Black and Gold Express]

3 Gateway teams, I buy. But the Southern? They may only get 1 bid if App St. loses and Furman wins out! How, pray tell, does the SoCon get 3 teams this year?

Actually it's a pretty easy scenario.

1. ASU - if they win out their I-AA games (@WOF, UTC, WCU, @ELON) they are in for sure. 8-3 and one of the toughest schedules in I-AA. I would put this as about an 85% chance of happening, hinging greatly on the game at Wofford this weekend. One loss in this group of games and they are done barring a miracle in Baton Rouge.

2. Furman - win out (ELON, @GSU, WOF, @UTC) and they are the auto bid. If they lose to GSU, they are still in at 9-2. If they lose to two of those teams, they probably are out with 3 conference losses, or best case they are one of the last bubble teams. Their schedule is definitely not an easy road left to hoe.

3. GSU - in clear desperation right now, and how they respond will tell the nation a ton about them. They need to win out (CIT, @SDSU, FUR, Morehead State). Doing so should lock them up at at large bid. The advantage they have here is the backloaded home schedule, and the cupcake to end the season. But that roady to South Dakota won't be easy.

There is a major wildcard in all this, Chattanooga. Most people not following closely would be surprised that they are 5-2, but their only quality win is against Wofford, and they got hammered against GSU and Memphis. But, as 2004 taught us, they are more than capable of Air Raiding a team into playoff oblivion. They must win out though (WCU, @ASU, CIT, FUR). Doing so would give them the automatic bid, but even going 3-1 (which would include at least one upset win) might get them in the field.

And you cannot dismiss Wofford either. Their remaining schedule is not pretty (ASU, @CIT, @WCU, @FUR, @G-W), but if Coach Ayers can work his Zen magic and finish out no worse than 4-1, it will be hard to keep them out.

If you had to rate the chances, based on remaining schedule right now, I would put it from most likely to make it to least likely as follows:



ASU
Furman
GSU
Chattanooga
Wofford
But all of them have legitimate shots at pulling it out. None of these can be considered longshots right now, IMO.

I would say, at this very moment, three from the SoCon is a given. That may well change as quickly as Saturday night though.

[OL FU]

Actually it's a pretty easy scenario.

1. ASU - if they win out their I-AA games (@WOF, UTC, WCU, @ELON) they are in for sure. 8-3 and one of the toughest schedules in I-AA. I would put this as about an 85% chance of happening, hinging greatly on the game at Wofford this weekend. One loss in this group of games and they are done barring a miracle in Baton Rouge.

2. Furman - win out (ELON, @GSU, WOF, @UTC) and they are the auto bid. If they lose to GSU, they are still in at 9-2. If they lose to two of those teams, they probably are out with 3 conference losses, or best case they are one of the last bubble teams. Their schedule is definitely not an easy road left to hoe.

3. GSU - in clear desperation right now, and how they respond will tell the nation a ton about them. They need to win out (CIT, @SDSU, FUR, Morehead State). Doing so should lock them up at at large bid. The advantage they have here is the backloaded home schedule, and the cupcake to end the season. But that roady to South Dakota won't be easy.

There is a major wildcard in all this, Chattanooga. Most people not following closely would be surprised that they are 5-2, but their only quality win is against Wofford, and they got hammered against GSU and Memphis. But, as 2004 taught us, they are more than capable of Air Raiding a team into playoff oblivion. They must win out though (WCU, @ASU, CIT, FUR). Doing so would give them the automatic bid, but even going 3-1 (which would include at least one upset win) might get them in the field.

And you cannot dismiss Wofford either. Their remaining schedule is not pretty (ASU, @CIT, @WCU, @FUR, @G-W), but if Coach Ayers can work his Zen magic and finish out no worse than 4-1, it will be hard to keep them out.

If you had to rate the chances, based on remaining schedule right now, I would put it from most likely to make it to least likely as follows:



ASU
Furman
GSU
Chattanooga
Wofford
But all of them have legitimate shots at pulling it out. None of these can be considered longshots right now, IMO.

I would say, at this very moment, three from the SoCon is a given. That may well change as quickly as Saturday night though.

I agree with everything you said except that at this moment three is a given ( I believe that assumes either a three loss Wofford Furman Chat or GSU gets in and I am not sure that is the case) . Other than that the analysis is right on.

[bandl]

Actually it's a pretty easy scenario.

1. ASU - if they win out their I-AA games (@WOF, UTC, WCU, @ELON) they are in for sure. 8-3 and one of the toughest schedules in I-AA. I would put this as about an 85% chance of happening, hinging greatly on the game at Wofford this weekend. One loss in this group of games and they are done barring a miracle in Baton Rouge.

2. Furman - win out (ELON, @GSU, WOF, @UTC) and they are the auto bid. If they lose to GSU, they are still in at 9-2. If they lose to two of those teams, they probably are out with 3 conference losses, or best case they are one of the last bubble teams. Their schedule is definitely not an easy road left to hoe.

3. GSU - in clear desperation right now, and how they respond will tell the nation a ton about them. They need to win out (CIT, @SDSU, FUR, Morehead State). Doing so should lock them up at at large bid. The advantage they have here is the backloaded home schedule, and the cupcake to end the season. But that roady to South Dakota won't be easy.

There is a major wildcard in all this, Chattanooga. Most people not following closely would be surprised that they are 5-2, but their only quality win is against Wofford, and they got hammered against GSU and Memphis. But, as 2004 taught us, they are more than capable of Air Raiding a team into playoff oblivion. They must win out though (WCU, @ASU, CIT, FUR). Doing so would give them the automatic bid, but even going 3-1 (which would include at least one upset win) might get them in the field.

And you cannot dismiss Wofford either. Their remaining schedule is not pretty (ASU, @CIT, @WCU, @FUR, @G-W), but if Coach Ayers can work his Zen magic and finish out no worse than 4-1, it will be hard to keep them out.

If you had to rate the chances, based on remaining schedule right now, I would put it from most likely to make it to least likely as follows:



ASU
Furman
GSU
Chattanooga
Wofford
But all of them have legitimate shots at pulling it out. None of these can be considered longshots right now, IMO.

I would say, at this very moment, three from the SoCon is a given. That may well change as quickly as Saturday night though.

Thanks...that cleared the SoCon up for me...seriously! :) I have a hard enough time keeping track of who is playing who, who played who, who needs to win out, who can afford a loss, etc. in the A-10, it's just hard to keep up with other conferences that well.

I'm rooting for Appy State from the SoCon...always loved them and the good ol' town of Boone!!!

[Tribe4SF]

.... I sweat them all.

Geez, who doesn't this year!

The SOS thing with JMU presents the same problem they had last year with the A-10 tie-breaker, and that is playing a D-II. If the committee squares them up against other A-10s with the same record, it could be the deciding factor. There NC will likely count for them though.

[Black and Gold Express]

I agree with everything you said except that at this moment three is a given ( I believe that assumes either a three loss Wofford Furman Chat or GSU gets in and I am not sure that is the case) . Other than that the analysis is right on.

The more I think about it, the more I would be willing to throw a flyer at Chattanooga being a major spoiler here, and if they can get to 8-3 I think they are in.

A big reason is the complete lack of home atmosphere they have, and having three home games left. If the 500 fans (and I'm not exaggerating too much) attending the ASU game last year is still the going interest level, opposing teams will have to fight lethargy and create their own energy. And Chattanooga doesn't seem to mind playing in front of nobody. I know it sounds like a reach, but that place can eat the life out of you if you aren't careful.

[chantman]

Ol FU,

On another thread, you said, "I am a South Carolina Homer. GO BULLDOGS!!!!!!" On this thread, you are pulling for VMI to upset Coastal. Come on know, palmetto boys have to stick together. :)

[Saint3333]

I'd say Furman has the best chance to make the playoffs followed by
ASU
GSU
Wofford
UTC

I think the big 3 will be back in the playoffs. Just beat Wofford boys!

[DB_Atlantic10]

I wonder if strength of schedule will hurt JMU.

Suppose that they go 8-3 (only one more loss). How will the the fact that two of those wins are against Loch Haven and Delaware State affect the committee?? 6-3 against major I-AA teams may not be impressive.

Note to JMU fans, I'm not, repeat not, taking a shot at the Dukes. I've said before I think they are an excellent team. This is a strength-of-schedule thought only...

So far, JMU loses two games on the road in the last minute of play...CCU I have to admit, caught the Dukes sleeping....and if the you think the Committee won't take the UMass field conditions into considerations, you've lost your mind. I mean they lose on a last second field goal in that mess, then all of a sudden they havent' beaten a quality team...you've just answered the whole boards question about the strength of the A-10...JMU goes 8-3 with no impressive wins over "Major I-AA" teams...watch what you wish for.... Right now our losses came to teams with a combined record of 10-2 and are currently ranked.....other than JMU, who has the Minutemen beaten that can boast those numbers right now, it looks like Richmond 3-3....

Look even closer and you well see that our toughest games are on the road...CCU, Hofstra, UMass, UDel, and W&M, all of which are play-off contention teams....Even Del State is 4-3 losing to #11 JMU, #15 CCU and #4 Hampton in back to back to back weeks.... :confused:

[Cocky]

No way the SOCON gets 3. There are not enough high profile OOC victories.
App St has:
Coastal Carolina
EKU

Furman:
Hofstra
JSU

GSU:
Northeastern

This is probably strecthing the term high profile but these are quality teams that I would consider good OOC wins. GSU's best win would either be UC or Northeastern. App State's would be GSU. Furman would be either App St or Hofstra.

The extra slots either go to the A-10 or the BSC. SOCON just isn't strong enough this year for 3.

[Maroon&White]

and if the you think the Committee won't take the UMass field conditions into considerations, you've lost your mind. I mean they lose on a last second field goal in that mess, then all of a sudden they havent' beaten a quality team...

Enough is enough already. Are you trying to start something? Stop bringing the field up.

[bandl]

Enough is enough already. Are you trying to start something? Stop bringing the field up.

Yeah, let's not delve into that any further. All teams have to play on a soggy/muddy field at one time. If you can't win on them, then sucks to be you. JMU showed they can win on a crappy field (Chatty in the NC game), so that's not the issue. UMass's defense beat JMU, not the field. As everyone said (in more or less words) after the NC game last year..."Montana had to play on the same field as JMU"

[JMU Duke Dog]

I think the A10 gets three at most this season due to a variety of factors. The three will probably be Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and then the winner of James Madison vs. William & Mary. If both JMU and W&M lose two games between now and the end of the regular season, then the A10 could send only two teams to the 2005 playoffs.

[DB_Atlantic10]

Enough is enough already. Are you trying to start something? Stop bringing the field up.

Sorry..... :cool:

[OL FU]

Ol FU,

On another thread, you said, "I am a South Carolina Homer. GO BULLDOGS!!!!!!" On this thread, you are pulling for VMI to upset Coastal. Come on know, palmetto boys have to stick together. :)

I think I said the Lehigh Poster should be pulling for VMI to upset CCU. I am pulling for Coastal Carolina and hoping we see you in Paladin Stadium over the Thanksgiving weekend.

[DB_Atlantic10]

I think the A10 gets three at most this season due to a variety of factors. The three will probably be Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and then the winner of James Madison vs. William & Mary. If both JMU and W&M lose two games between now and the end of the regular season, then the A10 could send only two teams to the 2005 playoffs.

If JMU and W&M lost two more, they will more than likely be to Richmond, who currently sits a top the A-10 south...they could likely slip in with that situation....and since neither team play UMass or UNH in the furture, then someone has to be winning.....

[Spider]

Hofstra is underrated.
that they are.....but the Spidah's win this weekend....

[OL FU]

No way the SOCON gets 3. There are not enough high profile OOC victories.
App St has:
Coastal Carolina
EKU

Furman:
Hofstra
JSU

GSU:
Northeastern

This is probably strecthing the term high profile but these are quality teams that I would consider good OOC wins. GSU's best win would either be UC or Northeastern. App State's would be GSU. Furman would be either App St or Hofstra.

The extra slots either go to the A-10 or the BSC. SOCON just isn't strong enough this year for 3.

Realizing this is an A-10 thread, I am not sure I agree. Assuming GSU ends up a top 25 team. look at it this way. and assuming JSU and Wofford are top 35.

Furman plays 3 top twenty five and 2 top 35 (3 if Chatt keep going)
ASU plays 3 top twenty five and 2 top 35 ( including EKU)
GSU plays 3 top twenty five and 1 top 35
Chat plays 3 top twenty five and 2 top 35.

Can't just count OOC

[HensRock]

Funny I see people talking about GSU's odds of making the playoffs, but no mention of Delaware's.

Don't get me wrong, I think both schools are equally likely to make the playoffs this year - Slim to none amd Slim just left town.

[boozeANDammo]

Funny I see people talking about GSU's odds of making the playoffs, but no mention of Delaware's.

Don't get me wrong, I think both schools are equally likely to make the playoffs this year - Slim to none amd Slim just left town.

Agreed. Both are unlikely to make it... though for two different reasons.

The SoCon will at most get two in. Talk of three is just silly.

[GannonFan]

Funny I see people talking about GSU's odds of making the playoffs, but no mention of Delaware's.

Don't get me wrong, I think both schools are equally likely to make the playoffs this year - Slim to none amd Slim just left town.

I'd have to rate GSU's chances as much better than UD's just simply based on the schedule and the depth of conference. UD has JMU and UMass left at home, both top 10 teams. Then they are on the road, where they are terrible, against W&M (top 10 or 15 team), Maine, and nova. GSU has one road game left against a decent but not great SD St team, and then has The Citadel, Furman, and Morehead St at home. Every one of those games is winnable. I don't think GSU is very good this year, but at 8-3 they most likely get in. Imagine that, though, GSU could be on the road in the first round - have they ever been on the road in a 1st round?

[HensRock]

I'd have to rate GSU's chances as much better than UD's just simply based on the schedule and the depth of conference. UD has JMU and UMass left at home, both top 10 teams. Then they are on the road, where they are terrible, against W&M (top 10 or 15 team), Maine, and nova. GSU has one road game left against a decent but not great SD St team, and then has The Citadel, Furman, and Morehead St at home. Every one of those games is winnable. I don't think GSU is very good this year, but at 8-3 they most likely get in. Imagine that, though, GSU could be on the road in the first round - have they ever been on the road in a 1st round?

SD State is under-rated. Look at who their losses were to.

[colgate13]

I think Lehigh gets in if Holy Cross and Lehigh both run the table.

I have to respectfully disagree. The PL is a one bid league this year IMO.

[HensRock]

I have NO idea why Lehigh is still ranked.
It is beyond me. :confused:

[youwouldno]

I agree with duke dawg that the A-10 will get 3, UNH, UMass, and the winner of W&M v. JMU.

It's not that impossible for the SoCon to get three. GSU wins out= probably 3 SoCon teams. Granted, one GSU win would be against mid-major I-AA... but if you win 7 of your last 8 (to finish 8-3) and have 6 I-AA titles, I think you're in.

Otherwise for the SoCon to get 3 would require some weird things to happen. If Furman beats GSU but loses to UTC, then the Paladins are in at 9-2 but UTC is 8-3 with all three losses away, those teams being Memphis, GSU, App St., with wins over Wofford and Furman. Tough to keep them out there, with 8 I-AA wins.

Wofford would have to run the table to get in and that won't happen, plus it would knock App out of the playoffs.

[appst89]

I agree with duke dawg that the A-10 will get 3, UNH, UMass, and the winner of W&M v. JMU.

It's not that impossible for the SoCon to get three. GSU wins out= probably 3 SoCon teams. Granted, one GSU win would be against mid-major I-AA... but if you win 7 of your last 8 (to finish 8-3) and have 6 I-AA titles, I think you're in.

Otherwise for the SoCon to get 3 would require some weird things to happen. If Furman beats GSU but loses to UTC, then the Paladins are in at 9-2 but UTC is 8-3 with all three losses away, those teams being Memphis, GSU, App St., with wins over Wofford and Furman. Tough to keep them out there, with 8 I-AA wins.

Wofford would have to run the table to get in and that won't happen, plus it would knock App out of the playoffs.

I not only don't think it's impossible for the SoCon to get three bids, I think it is highly likely if the following situation unfolds:

ASU wins out
GSU wins out
Furman loses only to GSU

Then ASU is the automatic bid, Furman is 9-2 and they're a lock, GSU is 8-3 and has the tradition of 6 national championships. There's no way those three don't get in.

[rcny46]

Hofstra is underrated.

UNH and UMass better not take them lightly;especially UNH.

[umassfan]

UNH and UMass better not take them lightly;especially UNH.
Im not worried... they dont have a defense and their strength is our strength so it should turn out right.

[HensRock]

I think it is highly likely if the following situation unfolds:

ASU wins out
GSU wins out
Furman loses only to GSU


I think it's a stone cold mortal lock IF that situation unfolds and that is the ONLY way it can happen. My point was, I think it's highly unlikely that that situation unfolds. (mighty big IF)

[Black and Gold Express]

I think it's a stone cold mortal lock IF that situation unfolds and that is the ONLY way it can happen. My point was, I think it's highly unlikely that that situation unfolds. (mighty big IF)

I would wait until after this weekend to make that big an if on it. We're going to learn a lot about 2 of the three teams this weekend.

IF... ASU plays well on the road at Wofford, you can make a strong case that portion of the scenario will happen, barring an injury (LSU) making a huge dent in the team.

IF... GSU wins convincingly over the Citadel at home, you have to look at them as dangerous, and the Paladins still have to walk into Paulson. Not that Furman cannot win there, they have proven they can, but it probably will be another one of those heartstopper games for Furman. The roady at SDSU might be the Eagles biggest question mark then.

Moreover, IF... Furman does not start winning some games convincingly, you have to think they are prime candidates to stub their toe one time the rest of the way. One time is all they need.

For the sake ofa confidence scenario, I'd keep a real close eye on the ASU/WOF, CIT/GSU, and ELON/FUR games. They should tell us a lot.

[WMTribe90]

Here's how I'd put it..

Furman (90% probability of making the playoffs)
ASU (50%)
GSU (20%)
UTC or Wofford (5%)

Here's a good question. Would the commitee take an 8-3 WM or an 8-3 GSU for the last playoff spot if that was the choice? Assume GSU would be the third SoCon and WM the 4th A10 team.

If WM beats JMU but stumbles against another team, then WM gets the nod.
If WM loses to JMU and wins the rest, then GSU might have the better case.

[HensRock]

BGX,
I think ASU is the real deal this year.
I think FU might be the real deal.
I think GSU is down this year.

We'll be watching.

[youwouldno]

W&M is a big-time sleeper IMO. I mean, they aren't really below the radar, but I think they are a potential NC contender. But the committee, all else being equal, is going to defer to GSU.

I don't know how to handicap FU @ GSU. This weekend will tell us some... but I'm not sure how much. When Furman executes its offense, the Paladins will score, period, against anyone in I-AA and a rather large portion of I-A too. However, our offense has been inconsistent at times and we turn the ball over too much. The defense has struggled. Not many run-first teams give up the kind of passing yards we have because usually the opposing offense doesn't have the ball enough.

Aside from GSU though, I doubt seriously any of the other remaining opponents can beat the Paladins. Even @ WCU, it took a miraculous interception by DE Rico Reese (Martin's 5th INT on the day) to halt the drive that could have taken the lead-- after the Paladins scored 3 TDs in under 6 minutes to make it 27-21.

[Black and Gold Express]

W&M is a big-time sleeper IMO. I mean, they aren't really below the radar, but I think they are a potential NC contender. But the committee, all else being equal, is going to defer to GSU.

I don't know how to handicap FU @ GSU. This weekend will tell us some... but I'm not sure how much. When Furman executes its offense, the Paladins will score, period, against anyone in I-AA and a rather large portion of I-A too. However, our offense has been inconsistent at times and we turn the ball over too much. The defense has struggled. Not many run-first teams give up the kind of passing yards we have because usually the opposing offense doesn't have the ball enough.

Aside from GSU though, I doubt seriously any of the other remaining opponents can beat the Paladins. Even @ WCU, it took a miraculous interception by DE Rico Reese (Martin's 5th INT on the day) to halt the drive that could have taken the lead-- after the Paladins scored 3 TDs in under 6 minutes to make it 27-21.

And the other TD WCU tacked on? They buried you guys late.

It's time to face facts now, Furman has been very shaky on the road. Spin the W-L thing all you want, you've needed minor miracles to pull out wins on the road against subpar competition in JSU and Citadel. You got beat by 20 by Western.

And you still have GSU and Chattanooga on the road. We all know full well the Eagles are dangerous even in their down times, especially at Paulson. And believe me from recent experience, Chattanooga is more than capable of pulling off the upset, especially against teams that have trouble keeping their opponents out of the endzone, like Furman has been against every half-decent or better team they have faced.

Having Wofford in your house helps a lot. And I would not be surprised in the least if you won out the rest of the regular season. But Furman's done nothing to make me think they'll waltz through any of their remaining games, this weekend being the exception.

[OL FU]

And the other TD WCU tacked on? They buried you guys late.

It's time to face facts now, Furman has been very shaky on the road. Spin the W-L thing all you want, you've needed minor miracles to pull out wins on the road against subpar competition in JSU and Citadel. You got beat by 20 by Western.

And you still have GSU and Chattanooga on the road. We all know full well the Eagles are dangerous even in their down times, especially at Paulson. And believe me from recent experience, Chattanooga is more than capable of pulling off the upset, especially against teams that have trouble keeping their opponents out of the endzone, like Furman has been against every half-decent or better team they have faced.

Having Wofford in your house helps a lot. And I would not be surprised in the least if you won out the rest of the regular season. But Furman's done nothing to make me think they'll waltz through any of their remaining games, this weekend being the exception.

I agree. This is the season of ambiguity. I don't see a team we can't beat. I also don't see I team we can't lose too. Strange indeed.

Fortunately, we haven't lost to many :D