Will 7-3 Make the Playoffs in 12 Game Year?

[TexasTerror]

Disclaimer: I know it's early -- but thought this would spur some discussion on the seven wins for 11 game teams vs eight wins for 12 game team debate...

May as well throw out my team...Sam Houston State. Our 11th game by the way is East Central Oklahoma.

What's the general thoughts on seven wins and the playoff chances for the Bearkats if they went 7-3? If you hypothetically said that Bearkat losses were Kansas, McNeese and UCA -- top two in the SLC plus our FBS foe.

The OOC wins are at Gardner-Webb and home for Prairie View A&M.
The SLC wins under the scenario are road games at Nicholls State and Northwestern State. Home game wins would be Stephen F Austin, Texas State-San Marcos and Southeastern Louisiana.

Road Div I record - 3-2 (losses at Kansas and UCA)
Home Div I record - 4-1 (loss is McNeese)

In a year where a good deal of schools are playing 12 games, if this going to cut it?

My general thought is that it would if we had a marquee conference or OOC win. There are no marquee OOC games available outside of Kansas, which is a tall task. In conference, would a win over UCA on the road or McNeese at home be enough push?

What's the deal with your team? And what do you think about mine?

[PantherRob82]

I'm thinking probably not. Depends on a lot of other things though.

[McNeese75]

Probably not unless you are in the CAA xwhistlex xpeacex

[Eight Legger]

You would have zero chance of making it in the scenario you outlined there. There are simply too many good teams that will have better schedules and end up with better records also. I worry about us making it in at 8-4, even if our four losses are to Virginia, UMass, JMU and Elon with wins over Delaware and Villanova, for example.

[MaximumBobcat]

If you don't get the SLC autobid, its starting to look like you'll have to have 8 D1 wins. SHSU is going to have to beat McNeese or UCA if they want to go to the playoffs this year IMO. Either that, or get a W against Kansas, which is unlikely. The Bobcats are in the same position, but our FBS game is a bit more winnable. Not to mention we can't look past the Nicholls and Northwestern State games...it's going to be a long season in the SLC.

[TexasTerror]

Pretty much, if I am going with what I am being told -- our wins need to be better. Which means we need Prairie View A&M to do some damage and Gardner-Webb to do what some think they may be able to do in the Big South. That would make our out of conference wins better, if those programs did their part outside of the Sam game...

Options...
a) Southland AQ
b) 9-2
c) Sit at home

[TexasTerror]

If you don't get the SLC autobid, its starting to look like you'll have to have 8 D1 wins. SHSU is going to have to beat McNeese or UCA if they want to go to the playoffs this year IMO. Either that, or get a W against Kansas, which is unlikely. The Bobcats are in the same position, but our FBS game is a bit more winnable.

Bobcats have the tougher SLC slate. Road games at McNeese and SHSU, two of the top teams if you look at the SLC preseason polls. If the Bobcats find their groove, the final game in Huntsville could be an elimination game. Wouldn't that be great?

Northern Colorado and Southern Utah will be interesting games for the Bobcats. Could be problematic. And there's that trip to the dark horse SLU that could spell a 'L' for the Bobcats, just as easy as our trip to Thibodaux...

[blackfordpu]

Disclaimer: I know it's early -- but thought this would spur some discussion on the seven wins for 11 game teams vs eight wins for 12 game team debate...

May as well throw out my team...Sam Houston State. Our 11th game by the way is East Central Oklahoma.

What's the general thoughts on seven wins and the playoff chances for the Bearkats if they went 7-3? If you hypothetically said that Bearkat losses were Kansas, McNeese and UCA -- top two in the SLC plus our FBS foe.

The OOC wins are at Gardner-Webb and home for Prairie View A&M.
The SLC wins under the scenario are road games at Nicholls State and Northwestern State. Home game wins would be Stephen F Austin, Texas State-San Marcos and Southeastern Louisiana.

Road Div I record - 3-2 (losses at Kansas and UCA)
Home Div I record - 4-1 (loss is McNeese)

In a year where a good deal of schools are playing 12 games, if this going to cut it?

My general thought is that it would if we had a marquee conference or OOC win. There are no marquee OOC games available outside of Kansas, which is a tall task. In conference, would a win over UCA on the road or McNeese at home be enough push?

What's the deal with your team? And what do you think about mine?

I would say our AD needs to get with the program and schedule at least one more game. If other teams are playing 12 games we should as well if we want to keep up.

[TheValleyRaider]

Based on the scenario you outlined in your first post, I'd say no on Sam Houston

Even if your 2 FCS losses are McNeese and UCA, those 2 are probably the top 2 in the SLC, and barring the loser of their game losing 2 other SLC games, you're looking at 3rd Place in the Conference. Even with UCA not being eligible, that's a tall order for the committee. Throw in the myriad number of 8-win teams with 12 game schedules (and at least 11 D-I games with that), and you're behind the 8-ball to begin with

The best argument SHSU could have in this scenario is either A) they're being considered with a 7-4/7-5 team for a spot, or B) the SLC as a conference racks up some impressive OOC wins and demonstrates a truly strong profile nationally. Outside of your FBS matchups, the SLC has UC-Davis (UCA), Western Illinois (SFA), South Dakota State (SFA) and Northern Iowa (Nicholls) against which they can make some noise. Without a doubt, an uphill battle there

As for my team, Colgate has 12 D-I games, so our path is pretty straightforward xpeacex

[McNeese75]

Bobcats have the tougher SLC slate. Road games at McNeese and SHSU, two of the top teams if you look at the SLC preseason polls. If the Bobcats find their groove, the final game in Huntsville could be an elimination game. Wouldn't that be great?

Northern Colorado and Southern Utah will be interesting games for the Bobcats. Could be problematic. And there's that trip to the dark horse SLU that could spell a 'L' for the Bobcats, just as easy as our trip to Thibodaux...

Bobcats NEED to beat SUU and NC xnodx . There is no way they should lose those games.

[TexasTerror]

I would say our AD needs to get with the program and schedule at least one more game. If other teams are playing 12 games we should as well if we want to keep up.

12 games is not necessarily a good thing. Not every school is doing it.

Got to remember we already have two flights (Kansas and Gardner-Webb) which seems to be the most we're willing to do. Also, the 12th game may have ended up being a sub-Div I game which serves no purpose. The only game that would have made sense was a Div I game and if it was an FBS, again that would make little sense to our efforts at getting into the playoffs.

[KAUMASS]

If you don't win the auto bid, then you will need to be in the top 15-25 in the GPI index at the end of the year with 7 D1 wins to have a shot and be considered for an at large. Historically, the committee will go down the GPI index for eligible teams after the autobids are in. Generally speaking, most of the autobids schools are rated in the top 10-15 in the GPI at the end of the year anyhow and the at large selections are usually ranked between 15-25 within the GPI. 7 D1 wins will not cut it this year unless you beat Kansas and your GPI is in the top 20. A 12th game can affect your GPI ratings as the GPI takes into affect who you played and all of their opponents and who they beat or lost to. Beating a cupcake can hurt you more in the GPI rankings than losing to a top 20 FCS rated school.

Good Luck this year. Our boys will be in Texas this year taking on Texas Tech. Tech will be tough, but our boys should hold their own.

[elon77]

You would have zero chance of making it in the scenario you outlined there. There are simply too many good teams that will have better schedules and end up with better records also. I worry about us making it in at 8-4, even if our four losses are to Virginia, UMass, JMU and Elon with wins over Delaware and Villanova, for example.

glad to see there's one spider who thinks they can lose to elon. i'll be there, and it can not get here soon enought. it should be one awsome game, and it's only the first one!:)

[TexasTerror]

Good Luck this year. Our boys will be in Texas this year taking on Texas Tech. Tech will be tough, but our boys should hold their own.

Tech has their QB and WR returning...don't they? Good luck with that. They show no mercy through out the game and will try to put points on the scoreboard from opening snap to final whistle...

[patssle]

Our boys will be in Texas this year taking on Texas Tech. Tech will be tough, but our boys should hold their own.

Honestly...I doubt it. Tech will probably hang 50 or 60 on you. They do to every FCS school they play.

But prove me wrong!

[Black Saturday]

Probably not unless you are in the CAA xwhistlex xpeacex

Ha! You beat me to it!

[McNeese75]

Based on the scenario you outlined in your first post, I'd say no on Sam Houston

Even if your 2 FCS losses are McNeese and UCA, those 2 are probably the top 2 in the SLC, and barring the loser of their game losing 2 other SLC games, you're looking at 3rd Place in the Conference. Even with UCA not being eligible, that's a tall order for the committee. Throw in the myriad number of 8-win teams with 12 game schedules (and at least 11 D-I games with that), and you're behind the 8-ball to begin with

The best argument SHSU could have in this scenario is either A) they're being considered with a 7-4/7-5 team for a spot, or B) the SLC as a conference racks up some impressive OOC wins and demonstrates a truly strong profile nationally. Outside of your FBS matchups, the SLC has UC-Davis (UCA), Western Illinois (SFA), South Dakota State (SFA) and Northern Iowa (Nicholls) against which they can make some noise. Without a doubt, an uphill battle there
As for my team, Colgate has 12 D-I games, so our path is pretty straightforward xpeacex

Just to enhance the OOC oppotunities, McNeese plays Cal Poly and South Dakota State and Northwestern State plays Cal Poly xnodx

[TheValleyRaider]

Just to enhance the OOC oppotunities, McNeese plays Cal Poly and South Dakota State and Northwestern State plays Cal Poly xnodx

I had the SLC Composite schedule and I can't believe I missed those

Wins there would definately improve your profile overall xnodx

[ASU88]

Richmond-Elon may be the most interesting FCS matchup of the opening weekend. I'd LOVE to see that game.

[BisonBacker]

As always it depends on the teams SOS. If you are San Diego not it won't mean crap.

[elcid96]

How many teams for the SLC went to the playoffs last year? I believe that SOCON or CAA schools with 8-4 record will be picked over 7-3 SLC schools. Who knows for sure?

[KAUMASS]

Honestly...I doubt it. Tech will probably hang 50 or 60 on you. They do to every FCS school they play.

But prove me wrong!

Here's a start on paper.....


Without hijacking the thread, the FCS opponents of Tech in the past were cupcakes during that year in the FCS. Tech has never played a top 10 FCS school. I'm not predicting a win by anymeans, but it will be decent game. We will find out what they have as they open up with E. Washington. Matty "Heisman" from BC could only put up 200 yards passing and 24 points on us last year.(not all td passes either) 3 of our 4 db's were pre-season all conference picks this year and will have a big defensive line this year.
Can't wait for the game..



From the UMass football blog....www.umass74.blogspot.com...

Here are my thoughts on the Texas Tech game. Would like to hear other opinions..Tech plays Eastern Washington, Nevada & SMU before the UMass game. Eastern Washington may be their hardest game before UMass, if E.W. is comparable to their FCS playoff team of a year ago. E.W. historically has a excellent team every couple of years. We will see. SMU and Nevada are no better than a top 10-15 FCS squad, and would have difficulty winning the CAA. There seems to be alot of talk about Texas Tech being a BCS caliber team, I don't see it happening with their '08 schedule.

Umass has Albany and Holy Cross, then JMU, then Tech. Albany and Holy Cross will be testers, as they are no pushovers. JMU will be a physical game. I like our schedule prior to the Tech game. We have a week off after Tech.


I'm a stats guy and a former player for UMass. Texas Tech is over-rated. Yes, they have crushed lower-tiered FCS schools. So **** what. So would UMass. Tech is in for another level against UMass this year that they are not expecting. They(Tech) will be complacent and I'm calling for a tie in the 3rd quarter and it could go either way in the 4th.

Northwestern State was ranked 62FCS in the GPI in 2007 and ended up 4-7. They lost 75-7 to tech. Southeast Louisana in 2006 was ranked 97 in the GPI-FCS and finished the year at 2-9. They lost 62-0 to Tech. Indiana State in 2005 was 0-11 and also got beat by St. Francis, Indiana, a NAIA school 42-10. They Ind. State lost 63-7 to Tech that year. Top 15 division 2 schools could have beaten those FCS teams in those years.

Umass's offensive line this year will probably be the biggest and most physical Tech faces this year. My offensive line when I played was about 6'3, 280 per guy. These guys this year will probably average 6-7, 310. Are you kidding me? Throw in that 255 pound back that was pounding the rock in spring ball this year and Nelson as a scat/power back as well. UMass is going to eat some people up this year. Umass will pound the ball hard and then open up the air attack with Coen. The receivers may be a bit green, but it won't matter as the running game will open up the air game. Mix in Coen, the best percentage completion guy in UMass history.

[TheValleyRaider]

Texas Tech put up 43 points on Texas and 34 against Oklahoma, who I would say have pretty good defenses themselves

Much respect for UMass and their D, but Tech is going to get their's against the Minutemen. That's just the way they play. UMass will also likely get their points, as TT doesn't exactly play what one would call "defense," but the offensive style and ability they bring to the field makes them a very difficult matchup for any FCS side

[elcid96]

This thread has been hijacked

[TexasTerror]

How many teams for the SLC went to the playoffs last year? I believe that SOCON or CAA schools with 8-4 record will be picked over 7-3 SLC schools. Who knows for sure?

The SLC has scheduled themselves out of the playoffs for the last few years. Prior to Katrina/Rita, the SLC was constantly putting two or three teams into the playoffs.

I believe College Sporting News was working on an article related to the "scheduling out".

This past season, every SLC team outside of McNeese was pretty much eliminated from at-large consideration with a month to go in the season!

[McNeese75]

How many teams for the SLC went to the playoffs last year? I believe that SOCON or CAA schools with 8-4 record will be picked over 7-3 SLC schools. Who knows for sure?

Well we all know that is because of "East Coast Bias" :D

[McNeese75]

Here's a start on paper.....


Without hijacking the thread, the FCS opponents of Tech in the past were cupcakes during that year in the FCS. Tech has never played a top 10 FCS school. I'm not predicting a win by anymeans, but it will be decent game. We will find out what they have as they open up with E. Washington. Matty "Heisman" from BC could only put up 200 yards passing and 24 points on us last year.(not all td passes either) 3 of our 4 db's were pre-season all conference picks this year and will have a big defensive line this year.
Can't wait for the game..



From the UMass football blog....www.umass74.blogspot.com...

Here are my thoughts on the Texas Tech game. Would like to hear other opinions..Tech plays Eastern Washington, Nevada & SMU before the UMass game. Eastern Washington may be their hardest game before UMass, if E.W. is comparable to their FCS playoff team of a year ago. E.W. historically has a excellent team every couple of years. We will see. SMU and Nevada are no better than a top 10-15 FCS squad, and would have difficulty winning the CAA. There seems to be alot of talk about Texas Tech being a BCS caliber team, I don't see it happening with their '08 schedule.

Umass has Albany and Holy Cross, then JMU, then Tech. Albany and Holy Cross will be testers, as they are no pushovers. JMU will be a physical game. I like our schedule prior to the Tech game. We have a week off after Tech.


I'm a stats guy and a former player for UMass. Texas Tech is over-rated. Yes, they have crushed lower-tiered FCS schools. So **** what. So would UMass. Tech is in for another level against UMass this year that they are not expecting. They(Tech) will be complacent and I'm calling for a tie in the 3rd quarter and it could go either way in the 4th.

Northwestern State was ranked 62FCS in the GPI in 2007 and ended up 4-7. They lost 75-7 to tech. Southeast Louisana in 2006 was ranked 97 in the GPI-FCS and finished the year at 2-9. They lost 62-0 to Tech. Indiana State in 2005 was 0-11 and also got beat by St. Francis, Indiana, a NAIA school 42-10. They Ind. State lost 63-7 to Tech that year. Top 15 division 2 schools could have beaten those FCS teams in those years.

Umass's offensive line this year will probably be the biggest and most physical Tech faces this year. My offensive line when I played was about 6'3, 280 per guy. These guys this year will probably average 6-7, 310. Are you kidding me? Throw in that 255 pound back that was pounding the rock in spring ball this year and Nelson as a scat/power back as well. UMass is going to eat some people up this year. Umass will pound the ball hard and then open up the air attack with Coen. The receivers may be a bit green, but it won't matter as the running game will open up the air game. Mix in Coen, the best percentage completion guy in UMass history.

Tech is going to light up EWU and Umass xnodx Keeping these games within 4 TDs or less will be a Victory!!!

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Depends on the OOC... but in your case, highly unlikely.

[KAUMASS]

Well we all know that is because of "East Coast Bias" :D


There is no bias. As I stated b4, it's all based on the GPI index. I researched the GPI over the last 8 years. Almost all the at larges picked were the next best available teams in order of the GPI index usually ranked 13-22. CAA teams that were 8-3 in the past have been snubbed, some of them co-champs.


BTY, Tech won't hang more than 35 on UMass. I think Tech will beat us by 10-14. UMass has a shot going into the 4th quarter.

[patssle]

Tech won't hang more than 35 on UMass

You think your defense is better than Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Virginia, or Oklahoma St's? All who Tech scored 34 or more on.

[Black Saturday]

Here's a start on paper.....


Without hijacking the thread, the FCS opponents of Tech in the past were cupcakes during that year in the FCS. Tech has never played a top 10 FCS school. I'm not predicting a win by anymeans, but it will be decent game. We will find out what they have as they open up with E. Washington. Matty "Heisman" from BC could only put up 200 yards passing and 24 points on us last year.(not all td passes either) 3 of our 4 db's were pre-season all conference picks this year and will have a big defensive line this year.
Can't wait for the game..



From the UMass football blog....www.umass74.blogspot.com...

Here are my thoughts on the Texas Tech game. Would like to hear other opinions..Tech plays Eastern Washington, Nevada & SMU before the UMass game. Eastern Washington may be their hardest game before UMass, if E.W. is comparable to their FCS playoff team of a year ago. E.W. historically has a excellent team every couple of years. We will see. SMU and Nevada are no better than a top 10-15 FCS squad, and would have difficulty winning the CAA. There seems to be alot of talk about Texas Tech being a BCS caliber team, I don't see it happening with their '08 schedule.

Umass has Albany and Holy Cross, then JMU, then Tech. Albany and Holy Cross will be testers, as they are no pushovers. JMU will be a physical game. I like our schedule prior to the Tech game. We have a week off after Tech.


I'm a stats guy and a former player for UMass. Texas Tech is over-rated. Yes, they have crushed lower-tiered FCS schools. So **** what. So would UMass. Tech is in for another level against UMass this year that they are not expecting. They(Tech) will be complacent and I'm calling for a tie in the 3rd quarter and it could go either way in the 4th.

Northwestern State was ranked 62FCS in the GPI in 2007 and ended up 4-7. They lost 75-7 to tech. Southeast Louisana in 2006 was ranked 97 in the GPI-FCS and finished the year at 2-9. They lost 62-0 to Tech. Indiana State in 2005 was 0-11 and also got beat by St. Francis, Indiana, a NAIA school 42-10. They Ind. State lost 63-7 to Tech that year. Top 15 division 2 schools could have beaten those FCS teams in those years.

Umass's offensive line this year will probably be the biggest and most physical Tech faces this year. My offensive line when I played was about 6'3, 280 per guy. These guys this year will probably average 6-7, 310. Are you kidding me? Throw in that 255 pound back that was pounding the rock in spring ball this year and Nelson as a scat/power back as well. UMass is going to eat some people up this year. Umass will pound the ball hard and then open up the air attack with Coen. The receivers may be a bit green, but it won't matter as the running game will open up the air game. Mix in Coen, the best percentage completion guy in UMass history.

How do you think the Minutemen stack up against JMU?

[McNeese75]

There is no bias. As I stated b4, it's all based on the GPI index. I researched the GPI over the last 8 years. Almost all the at larges picked were the next best available teams in order of the GPI index usually ranked 13-22. CAA teams that were 8-3 in the past have been snubbed, some of them co-champs.


BTY, Tech won't hang more than 35 on UMass. I think Tech will beat us by 10-14. UMass has a shot going into the 4th quarter.

Are you sure your not an App State Fan? You seem to be drinking out of the same kool-aid cup. 4 Td spread minimum in this one.

[KAUMASS]

How do you think the Minutemen stack up against JMU?

Right now-dead even-Gotta give JMU plus 3 at home. We'll get a better idea after the first two games of each team.

[KAUMASS]

Are you sure your not an App State Fan? You seem to be drinking out of the same kool-aid cup. 4 Td spread minimum in this one.

I became an App. St. fan after going to the UMass-App. St championship in 2006 in Chatty. They beat us, but to watch a FCS squad with 63 scholies have that much speed and be ranked in the top 40 out of all D-1 teams (230 teams) is awesome wether you like them or not. Check out my prediction of the App. St/Michigan game from last year. Must be the kool aid.

[elon77]

Ha! You beat me to it!

hey black saturday, do they still play football in the caa?xbawlingx

[PaladinFan]

I think it has to open up some. An 8 win team that plays a bunch of little sisters might deserve in. Do they deserve in over a 7 win Furman or Deleware who have freakishly hard schedules? Meh?

[Black Saturday]

hey black saturday, do they still play football in the caa?xbawlingx

Sure they do, look at the pre-season top 10. It's a CAA who's who. It will remain so if your team, my team and Paladin Fan's team don't thin 'em out in September. Great matchups! I like these matchups better than playing Jacksonville or Mars Hill.

[MaximumBobcat]

There is no bias. As I stated b4, it's all based on the GPI index. I researched the GPI over the last 8 years. Almost all the at larges picked were the next best available teams in order of the GPI index usually ranked 13-22. CAA teams that were 8-3 in the past have been snubbed, some of them co-champs.


BTY, Tech won't hang more than 35 on UMass. I think Tech will beat us by 10-14. UMass has a shot going into the 4th quarter.

I wasn't going to comment, but I think you're kidding yourself. Tech is a very GOOD team. A lot of people have them picked to win the Big XII South. I agree with the McNeese fan that said keeping it within 4 tds would be a victory. xtwocentsx

[RabidRabbit]

Disclaimer: I know it's early -- but thought this would spur some discussion on the seven wins for 11 game teams vs eight wins for 12 game team debate...

May as well throw out my team...Sam Houston State. Our 11th game by the way is East Central Oklahoma.

What's the general thoughts on seven wins and the playoff chances for the Bearkats if they went 7-3? If you hypothetically said that Bearkat losses were Kansas, McNeese and UCA -- top two in the SLC plus our FBS foe.

The OOC wins are at Gardner-Webb and home for Prairie View A&M.
The SLC wins under the scenario are road games at Nicholls State and Northwestern State. Home game wins would be Stephen F Austin, Texas State-San Marcos and Southeastern Louisiana.

Road Div I record - 3-2 (losses at Kansas and UCA)
Home Div I record - 4-1 (loss is McNeese)

In a year where a good deal of schools are playing 12 games, if this going to cut it?

My general thought is that it would if we had a marquee conference or OOC win. There are no marquee OOC games available outside of Kansas, which is a tall task. In conference, would a win over UCA on the road or McNeese at home be enough push?

What's the deal with your team? And what do you think about mine?


Going from this schedule, unless Garner-Webb and Prairie View A&M have substantially better years than they have had recently, there are too many teams that will be 7 or 8 wins, in FCS, and the at-large's may even have a FBS win. SDSU and Cal Poly are two examples of very challenging schedules, including OOC. Besides the five other top 25 ranked teams in MoValley, SDSU plays Iowa St. SFA, McNeese St., and Cal Poly. If Jacks finish a game behind the MVFC co-champs 5-3 in conference, and split that four OOC, wouldn't that be better than Garner Webb & Prairie View? How about Poly if they win 3 of 4 vs San Diego St, MT, SDSU, McNeese + win the Great West in convincing fashion. Or if they finish 8-4 with losses to 3 of 4 of those above and Wisconsin?

In the not distant future, and maybe even this year, a team that plays a D-II will be on the outside watching play-offs in front of TV. A team that plays two or more FBS teams, and doesn't win at least one of those will be out.

Not that it will happen this year, but what if NDSU goes 7-5, and it's losses are all top twenty & Wyo. I'd say they'll be watching from TV too. Cent. Conn St. and Austin Peay are about as challenging a pair as Garner-Webb and PVA&M. So much will depend on how CCSU and AP do in their respective conferences.

So no, IMHO SHSU will be sitting home as a #3 out of the SLC, and no top 20 wins.