4-7 playoff team!!!!!!!!

[kirkblitz]

How does everyone feel about the possibility of a 4-7 team winning their confrences auto bid? for example maybe a big south team just squeaks by in conference for the auto bid in 2010. Should they be kept out of the playoffs for someone else?

[appfan2008]

if they win the autobid then they are in... that is how the system works...

[kirkblitz]

but how do you feel about it?

[gophoenix]

but how do you feel about it?

This kind of thing can happen any many conferences.... not just the Big South. So, why does it matter?

[Franks Tanks]

We get teams with losing records in the NCAA B-Ball tourney every now and then. I think the 4-7 possibility is highly unlikely--maybe a 5-6 (or 6-5 like us in 2006)

[KiddBrewer]

This kind of thing can happen any many conferences.... not just the Big South. So, why does it matter?

you go 4-7 in the socon, youre not getting the autobid. it would take a VERY down year.

[GannonFan]

This kind of thing can happen any many conferences.... not just the Big South. So, why does it matter?

Agreed - not a big deal, that's life with autobids. I think the Patriot sent a 6-5 team before and the world didn't end. It basically ends up being a bye for one of the top teams. Of course, getting rid of autobids altogether would be an idea, but there are too many conferences that would be terrified of that setup.

[gophoenix]

you go 4-7 in the socon, youre not getting the autobid. it would take a VERY down year.

It could have happened mathematically before Samford was added. And this is all the more likely in conferences like the SoCon, CAA and Gateway where more than 2/3 of the teams are contenders these days. So not saying it would, just that it could happen.

I mean, this is the way automatic berths work. Sometimes you get teams in that otherwise would not have been in. Montana State made it in at 6-5 not long ago.

But even with that, this is unlikely in any conference.

[CSUBUCDAD]

At least it isn't like they used to run the HS playoffs here in SC. Until 2 years ago, if you were one of the largest 16 schools in the state, you could get into the post season with an 0-11 record. West Ashley HS did just that back in 2002.

[citdog]

At least it isn't like they used to run the HS playoffs here in SC. Until 2 years ago, if you were one of the largest 16 schools in the state, you could get into the post season with an 0-11 record. West Ashley HS did just that back in 2002.


admin i'll go ahead and do it for you....

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[Cobblestone]

PLAYOFFS?!? PLAYOFFS?!? @ 4-7? There is hope for us... hope.

[lizrdgizrd]

It could have happened mathematically before Samford was added. And this is all the more likely in conferences like the SoCon, CAA and Gateway where more than 2/3 of the teams are contenders these days. So not saying it would, just that it could happen.

I mean, this is the way automatic berths work. Sometimes you get teams in that otherwise would not have been in. Montana State made it in at 6-5 not long ago.

But even with that, this is unlikely in any conference.
I think you'd have the best chance of this happening in a really weak conference where they either don't schedule DI OOC or can't beat the OOC they schedule.

[gophoenix]

I think you'd have the best chance of this happening in a really weak conference where they either don't schedule DI OOC or can't beat the OOC they schedule.

Or a really strong conference where all teams are stepping up the game and end up about even like much of the gateway and socon seems to be doing.

Add to that playing a I-A, a stout I-AA and a cupcake and you could get the conference teams splitting games (a la SoCon last year), and losing two hard OOC games. And then, voila, losing record for an automatic bid.

[mcveyrl]

We get teams with losing records in the NCAA B-Ball tourney every now and then. I think the 4-7 possibility is highly unlikely--maybe a 5-6 (or 6-5 like us in 2006)

Those teams usually win their conference tourneys and don't win the regular season like you have to in football.



It could have happened mathematically before Samford was added. And this is all the more likely in conferences like the SoCon, CAA and Gateway where more than 2/3 of the teams are contenders these days. So not saying it would, just that it could happen.

I mean, this is the way automatic berths work. Sometimes you get teams in that otherwise would not have been in. Montana State made it in at 6-5 not long ago.

But even with that, this is unlikely in any conference.


I think to look at the probability of it happening in current autobid conferences, you have to look at how many times it's happened in the past. None.

Any conference that has an autobid with six teams has a possibility of this happening. In the Big South, you will have five conference games. You go 4-1, lose all your OOC...but you could still get in. I'll admit that this is also highly unlikely since you would probably at least win two OOC games.

EDIT: I think my math is wrong...Big South will have seven when autobid starts, right?

[lizrdgizrd]

Or a really strong conference where all teams are stepping up the game and end up about even like much of the gateway and socon seems to be doing.

Add to that playing a I-A, a stout I-AA and a cupcake and you could get the conference teams splitting games (a la SoCon last year), and losing two hard OOC games. And then, voila, losing record for an automatic bid.
Well, at 4-7 all 4 wins would be against conference teams. That's no stretch of the imagination for a tough conference. The problem is the 7 losses, 4 of which would be against OOC competition. So you'd have to either be playing a really tough OOC schedule with no cupcakes or just be a weak team in a weak conference.

[blur2005]

At least it isn't like they used to run the HS playoffs here in SC. Until 2 years ago, if you were one of the largest 16 schools in the state, you could get into the post season with an 0-11 record. West Ashley HS did just that back in 2002.
Oh, good, they got rid of that system. One of my cousins went to one the Big 16 that was always bad at football and he told me about that ridiculous system, though I don't think it was West Ashley.

[MaximumBobcat]

All of you guys are such big proponents of "playing it out on the field" I would think you guys would enjoy something like this. If you don't like a 4-7 team getting in, just think of conference games as a mini tournament to get a bid to the big tournament. They got hot at the right time.

[Hansel]

for smaller conf's i would like to see a system where the "top ranked" team earns the bid over the "conf champ". when only 5-7 conf games are played in a 11-12 game regular season, you could get a situation where a team is 6-5 goes 4-2 in conf wins the tie-breakers and is "conf champ" over a team who is 8-3 overall 4-2 in conf. essentially in the smaller leagues you would be saying half the games in the season don't matter

[gophoenix]

for smaller conf's i would like to see a system where the "top ranked" team earns the bid over the "conf champ". when only 5-7 conf games are played in a 11-12 game regular season, you could get a situation where a team is 6-5 goes 4-2 in conf wins the tie-breakers and is "conf champ" over a team who is 8-3 overall 4-2 in conf. essentially in the smaller leagues you would be saying half the games in the season don't matter

Why reward the "best" team if they couldn't get it done. That's how Charleston Southern won it a few years ago. Sometimes the best ranked team isn't the best team at the time due to anything, injuries for instance.

I just find it interesting that some of the people here that are the biggest critics of expanding the playoffs are the same people who criticize the top basketball conferences for multiple bids and fight for an automatic to the basketball field. I mean, seriously. Without automatic bids to the basketball tourney, how many non-big 6 schools would make it in? Would Gonzaga or Valpo ever been as good as they were? Etc etc etc

I just find it amusing the change in tune some people have when your from the top of I-AA...... you sound like the ACC and others in FBS or basketball.......

[Hoseinexile07]

If a team goes 4-7 to win its conference championship, it obviously can't play well out of conference. It'll get blown out in the first round of the playoffs. Problem solved.

[putter]

If a team goes 4-7 to win its conference championship, it obviously can't play well out of conference. It'll get blown out in the first round of the playoffs. Problem solved.

I don't have a problem with it. The committee gave the conference the auto-bid so the conference champion gets in regardless of record. My guess would be that would only happen a couple of times, like Hoseinexile said, you get sent up against the top teams in the playoffs and you find out very quickly what it will take to get to that level. That results in better recruiting and scheduling and builds a better program.

[Ivytalk]

I don't have a problem with it. The committee gave the conference the auto-bid so the conference champion gets in regardless of record. My guess would be that would only happen a couple of times, like Hoseinexile said, you get sent up against the top teams in the playoffs and you find out very quickly what it will take to get to that level. That results in better recruiting and scheduling and builds a better program.

You are correct, sir!xthumbsupx

[EKU05]

This kind of thing can happen any many conferences.... not just the Big South. So, why does it matter?

I agree with you, but I think part of his point is the size of the Big South...most conferences make you play enough conference games to where it is NEARLY impossible to win the league and have a losing record. For example in the OVC it would require a bunch of teams tying at 5-3, plus the team that wins the tie breaker would have had to lose all three non-conference games...which rarely happens to most teams because they schedule at least one game they should win.

[patssle]

SFA was very close to making it to the playoffs as a 5-6 team in 2006. They lost to the SLC champion, McNeese, 20-17 and thus finished 4-7 and 4-2 in SLC play. They started out the season losing 5 in a row including D2 Delta St.

Had they beaten McNeese, they would of been 5-6/5-1 and gotten the SLC autobid.

[eaglesrthe1]

you go 4-7 in the socon, youre not getting the autobid. it would take a VERY down year.

Amen. Which is why it wouldn't cause me any grief to get rid of autos altogether.

[eaglesrthe1]

SFA was very close to making it to the playoffs as a 5-6 team in 2006. They lost to the SLC champion, McNeese, 20-17 and thus finished 4-7 and 4-2 in SLC play. They started out the season losing 5 in a row including D2 Delta St.

Had they beaten McNeese, they would of been 5-6/5-1 and gotten the SLC autobid.

The solution to that would be to raise the auto-bid limit minimum to seven teams. It would drastically reduce the odds of having a team with a losing record in the playoffs.

[gophoenix]

Amen. Which is why it wouldn't cause me any grief to get rid of autos altogether.

You know how no one from CUSA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt has a shot at the championship even in a good year.

Thus, you would have no team from the NEC, Big South, Patriot, OVC, MEAC, SWAC have a shot at the playoffs in systems like this.

So, many people complain about the BCS system here and getting rid of autos or limiting them to 6 or 7 basically guarantee the power conferences rake in the bids.

And again, we end up being the BCS, which we all loath.

So you do it here and it sets the precedent for basketball. And as soon as they do that to make more money, all of us would rarely ever make that tournament again.

[Hoseinexile07]

You know how no one from CUSA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt has a shot at the championship even in a good year.

Thus, you would have no team from the NEC, Big South, Patriot, OVC, MEAC, SWAC have a shot at the playoffs in systems like this.

And again, we end up being the BCS, which we all loath.


Agreed. No football team that is sanctioned and in good standing with the NCAA should be kept, de jure or de facto, from competing for the national title. "And that's all I've got to say about that" [Forrest Gump].

[eaglesrthe1]

You know how no one from CUSA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt has a shot at the championship even in a good year.Thus, you would have no team from the NEC, Big South, Patriot, OVC, MEAC, SWAC have a shot at the playoffs in systems like this.
So, many people complain about the BCS system here and getting rid of autos or limiting them to 6 or 7 basically guarantee the power conferences rake in the bids.

And again, we end up being the BCS, which we all loath.

So you do it here and it sets the precedent for basketball. And as soon as they do that to make more money, all of us would rarely ever make that tournament again.

Apples and oranges. There have been years that the champs from some of those leagues would have had a shot at the BCS title, if they had a sixteen teams playoff system like the FCS.

The FCS is nothing about money, it is about merit, and it's just as likely to work the other way. It's the teams that get woofed due to some team ranked 52nd taking an playoff spot simply because of some chips falling in a convoluted way that chaps me. A second 9-2 MEAC team would be more deserving in my opinion than a 5-6 GSU team to me.

A 10-1 NEC team that wasn't the autobid winner would be sitting at home if the conference champ was 5-6, make no bones about it. If by some miracle the 10-1 team were to make it in as a second team while a 8-3 Elon team sat at home, I would be willing to bet that you'd be singing a different tune also. The name of the song would focus on the 5-6 champ, not the 10-1 deserving team.

[gophoenix]

Apples and oranges. There have been years that the champs from some of those leagues would have had a shot at the BCS title, if they had a sixteen teams playoff system like the FCS.

The FCS is nothing about money, it is about merit, and it's just as likely to work the other way. It's the teams that get woofed due to some team ranked 52nd taking an playoff spot simply because of some chips falling in a convoluted way that chaps me. A second 9-2 MEAC team would be more deserving in my opinion than a 5-6 GSU team to me.

A 10-1 NEC team that wasn't the autobid winner would be sitting at home if the conference champ was 5-6, make no bones about it. If by some miracle the 10-1 team were to make it in as a second team while a 8-3 Elon team sat at home, I would be willing to bet that you'd be singing a different tune also. The name of the song would focus on the 5-6 champ, not the 10-1 deserving team.

But teams get woofed that are ranked 40-64 in the basketball because of automatic bids of teams ranked in the 200s. Same thing happens in baseball.

As for the BCS. I seem to remember not long ago that SMU and TCU had fantastic seasons but their conference stunk. They sat hovering 20-15 in rankings. That made them bubble teams behind teams with 3 conference losses in the SEC and Big 12. Is that the way it should work?!?

A 10-1 NEC team could beat 2 CAA teams very well, run the table in a very weak NEC by heavy margins and would still be on the outside looking in at the playoffs in a system with no automatics. The same could be said about the OVC, Patriot or MEAC.

And no, I wouldn't be singing a different tune if it was Elon on the bubble basically because, this is how EVERY other NCAA playoff works. And it is the life of CHOOSING to play in a tough league. Sure, I'd be upset and I would question the automatic berths. But I stand fast in my opinion that automatics for every conference wanting to participate is only fair.

Without automatics, the playoffs turn into the SoCon/CAA/Southland/Big Sky/Gateway special.... no one else would ever have a chance......

And not only that, without automatics, SoS becomes a HUGE factor in making the playoffs, not just wins and losses. And margin of victory comes in handily too. Why would the SoCon/CAA/Southland/Big Sky/Gateway teams every play OOC games against anyone but from those conferences or I-A???? Playing others would only drag the SoS down thus hurting your standing to be in that illustrious top 16 to make the playoffs. And then you would the NEC, Big South, OVC, MEAC, Patriot stagnate because not only will they not make the playoffs, but they can't even get games against the top 5 conferences anymore. And thus, the gap widens .... just like in FBS with the Sun Belt, CUSA, MWC and MAC. And what do teams like Liberty, EIU, EKU, Lehigh, Colgate, Lafayette, Coastal, SC State, Hampton, Albany, Stony Brook , A&T and A&M do because presently, those are schools really putting forth an effort.... and there is only so much room in those top 5 conferences.

So yes, it is an Apples to Apples comparison because ultimately the same logic applies.

[JohnStOnge]

I've got no problem with it if it happens.

[eaglesrthe1]

You can have a national invitational feel good tournament, or a National Championship Playoff, but you can't have both. I would prefer the best 16 teams on the field, and a team with a losing record is taking a spot from legitimate team no matter what conference they hail from.

If you want to expand the process to include more teams so that more of these programs have a shot, then so be it. That is still no reason to leave out better teams so that lesser teams are included no matter what the final number of entrants are. There are a finite number of players that can participate, and the ones that should reap the reward are the ones that have laid it out on the playing surface, not the ones that make the loudest wailing noise.xbawlingx

The gist of this thread is not the # of teams participating, or the merits of a 10-1 NEC team vs a 7-4 SoCon team. It's about the distinct mathematical probability of a team with a losing record ending up in the playoffs, simply because they happened to have beaten the odds of winning the correct "combination" of games. It's a probability that goes up every time you add more chances (auto-bids).

Just because they might do it wrong in other sports, is no reason to do it wrong in every sport.

[eaglesrthe1]

Really, I'm not saying that auto-bids are unfair, by any means. GSU has just as much chance as any team to benefit, or be punished by that process, so in that sense it is totally fair because all teams are under the same rules.

You just wont (don't) always have the best teams participating for the title, which I think is the most important reason by far for doing the whole process.

[appsfan]

I would have no problem with it since they would be the conference champion who was awarded an auto bid.
Here's another scenario that could happen: the team's first game is against FBS competition (money game). They experience significant injuries at key positions. They proceed to lose their games (OOC) but when conference play comes around they get healthy and win 4 games in conference and go into the playoffs on a roll. I know this is unlikely, but could happen.

[gophoenix]

Really, I'm not saying that auto-bids are unfair, by any means. GSU has just as much chance as any team to benefit, or be punished by that process, so in that sense it is totally fair because all teams are under the same rules.

You just wont (don't) always have the best teams participating for the title, which I think is the most important reason by far for doing the whole process.

I mean, I understand your argument..... but what I am saying is that their are arguments to both sides and the mathematical probability of having a losing record team in is so remote that the likelihood of it happening is very low.

So I ask again, since no one seems to want to answer. Isn't any tournament of this nature a "feel good" if at-large bids are offered? Why should any team have a real shot at the national championship if they couldn't win their conference ultimately?

[BlueHen86]

but how do you feel about it?
Decidedly Ambivalent.

[GannonFan]

It could have happened mathematically before Samford was added. And this is all the more likely in conferences like the SoCon, CAA and Gateway where more than 2/3 of the teams are contenders these days. So not saying it would, just that it could happen.

I mean, this is the way automatic berths work. Sometimes you get teams in that otherwise would not have been in. Montana State made it in at 6-5 not long ago.

But even with that, this is unlikely in any conference.

Dude, I don't think math is on your side. The bigger the conference, the less likely it is to happen. For it to happen in the CAA, the team would need to lose all 3 of their OOC games, and then go 4-4 and somehow win the conference, which of course could only happen if every team in that conference goes 4-4 in conference. There is a scenario where it could happen, but it's so unlikely you can pretty much call it impossible.

[gophoenix]

Dude, I don't think math is on your side. The bigger the conference, the less likely it is to happen. For it to happen in the CAA, the team would need to lose all 3 of their OOC games, and then go 4-4 and somehow win the conference, which of course could only happen if every team in that conference goes 4-4 in conference. There is a scenario where it could happen, but it's so unlikely you can pretty much call it impossible.

Of course math isn't on my side. But overall, with the NEC at 9 teams and Big South at 7, math isn't on that side there either.

[FCS Preview]

Of course math isn't on my side. But overall, with the NEC at 9 teams and Big South at 7, math isn't on that side there either.

With an odd number of teams, you play an even number of games.
So a 9-team NEC would play 8 conference games; A 7-team Big South would play 6 conference games...

[KiddBrewer]

Decidedly Ambivalent.


either that.......or.......decidedly indifferent

not sure which one i fall under....

[Bison101]

I would have no problem with it since they would be the conference champion who was awarded an auto bid.
Here's another scenario that could happen: the team's first game is against FBS competition (money game). They experience significant injuries at key positions. They proceed to lose their games (OOC) but when conference play comes around they get healthy and win 4 games in conference and go into the playoffs on a roll. I know this is unlikely, but could happen.


Sounds likely. I'll buy it.

The situation would probably be most likely in the Great West. I can see Cal-Poly doing something like that in the future.