Man-Ram a First Ballot HOF'er???

[AZGrizFan]

I've been in a spirited debate with 3 guys in my fantasy baseball league....they all INSIST Man-Ram is a no-brainer first ballot HOF'er....I disagree.

Here's his stats:

Batting Stats
Year Team G AB R H HR RBI BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG
1993 CLE 22 53 5 9 2 5 2 8 0 0 .200 .302 .170

1994 CLE 91 290 51 78 17 60 42 72 4 2 .357 .521 .269

1995 CLE 137 484 85 149 31 107 75 112 6 6 .402 .558 .308

1996 CLE 152 550 94 170 33 112 85 104 8 5 .399 .582 .309

1997 CLE 150 561 99 184 26 88 79 115 2 3 .415 .538 .328

1998 CLE 150 571 108 168 45 145 76 121 5 3 .377 .599 .294

1999 CLE 147 522 131 174 44 165 96 131 2 4 .442 .663 .333

2000 CLE 118 439 92 154 38 122 86 117 1 1 .457 .697 .351

2001 BOS 142 529 93 162 41 125 81 147 0 1 .405 .609 .306

2002 BOS 120 436 84 152 33 107 73 85 0 0 .450 .647 .349

2003 BOS 154 569 117 185 37 104 97 94 3 1 .427 .587 .325

2004 BOS 152 568 108 175 43 130 82 124 2 4 .397 .613 .308

2005 BOS 152 554 112 162 45 144 80 119 1 0 .388 .594 .292

2006 BOS 130 449 79 144 35 102 100 102 0 1 .439 .619 .321
2007 BOS 133 483 84 143 20 88 71 92 0 0 .388 .493 .296

2008 BOS 20 74 15 25 6 20 8 21 0 0 .410 .703 .338

Total 1970 7132 1357 2234 496 1624 1133 1564 34 31 .409 .594 .313





Discuss.... xcoffeex xcoffeex

[blueballs]

I don't know about first ballot as the BBWA does some strange things but HOF for sure.

[UNHWildCats]

When he retires he will be a .300 lifetime hitter very close to if not decently past 600 career homers with over 2000 RBI and near 3000 hits.... Manny will be a first ballot HOFer

[Cleets]

His STATS are amazing but:
130years of baseball: and he's going to finish his career as the MLB grand slam leader... that's amazing in it's own right...
& World a Series MVP

Considering he's played 14 full seasons with probably 4 good season left xeyebrowx

How do you not go to the Hall

[AZGrizFan]

His STATS are amazing but:
130years of baseball: and he's going to finish his career as the MLB grand slam leader... that's amazing in it's own right...
& World a Series MVP

Considering he's played 14 full seasons with probably 4 good season left xeyebrowx

How do you not go to the Hall


I'm not arguing his "Hall" credentials...I'm arguing whether he's a slam dunk first ballot HOF'er. xeyebrowx

[Cleets]

I'm not arguing his "Hall" credentials...I'm arguing whether he's a slam dunk first ballot HOF'er. xeyebrowx

10-4 Ghost Rider (I see what you're saying)
Because of his oddities and seemingly awkward outfield play... they might hold off one year just to keep him humble

[TheValleyRaider]

Slam-dunk? I don't think so

Manny's something else. Probably as good a pure hitter in the majors in the last 10-15 years as you'll find.

I don't care for the surefire "first ballot" stuff, because it always seemed strange to me that someone could be unworthy for several years, then suddenly, without their stats changing one bit, they become better/more famous/what have you. I can understand something like closers where from our position in the present we can see how guys like Sutter and Gossage were the beginning of a real change in the game, but for Manny? Or a hitter like that in general?

I'd vote for him

[NE MT GRIZZ]

I'm not arguing his "Hall" credentials...I'm arguing whether he's a slam dunk first ballot HOF'er. xeyebrowx

I'm with you AZ, not a first ballot, but he'll get in.

His defense, and the diminished 500 HR plateau will keep him off the first ballot.

[UNHWildCats]

lets compare to a few 1st ballot HOFers

..................H......R.......AB....AVG....OBP. ....HR....RBI
Ramirez.........2,234..1,357...7,132...313....409. ...496...1,624
Williams........2,654..1,798...7,706...344....482. ...521...1,839
Gehrig..........2,721..1,888...8,001...340....447. ...493...1,995
Yaz.............3,419..1,816..11,988...285....379. ...452...1,844
Mantle..........2,415..1,677...8,102...298....421. ...536...1,509


If you project Mannys numbers to the amount of ABs the other players has, Manny pretty much matches all of them in numbers. Im not sure how you can say hes not a first ballot HOF.

[TheValleyRaider]

lets compare to a few 1st ballot HOFers

..................H......R.......AB....AVG....OBP. ....HR....RBI
Ramirez.........2,234..1,357...7,132...313....409. ...496...1,624
Williams........2,654..1,798...7,706...344....482. ...521...1,839
Gehrig..........2,721..1,888...8,001...340....447. ...493...1,995
Yaz.............3,419..1,816..11,988...285....379. ...452...1,844
Mantle..........2,415..1,677...8,102...298....421. ...536...1,509


If you project Mannys numbers to the amount of ABs the other players has, Manny pretty much matches all of them in numbers. Im not sure how you can say hes not a first ballot HOF.

Well, adjusting those numbers for Manny having played in a more offensive era might provide a bit more prospective. I'm not enough of a statistical guy to figure it out, but I know there are historical adjustment metrics available

[UNHWildCats]

I'm with you AZ, not a first ballot, but he'll get in.

His defense, and the diminished 500 HR plateau will keep him off the first ballot.

23 current 500 home run members in the 120 year history or so of baseball? diminished plateau? are you serious?

Sure Bonds cheated and Sosa probably did too, but Bonds was probably still a 500 HR guy anyway.

[UNHWildCats]

Well, adjusting those numbers for Manny having played in a more offensive era might provide a bit more prospective. I'm not enough of a statistical guy to figure it out, but I know there are historical adjustment metrics available
Im gonna email Paul from YF vs SF... he's a statistical nerd.... I'll ask him to tackle this on their blog.... when he does I will give ya the link to the post :p

[UMass922]

I'm not arguing his "Hall" credentials...I'm arguing whether he's a slam dunk first ballot HOF'er. xeyebrowx

I've never understood all the hullabaloo made over whether or not a guy gets in on the first ballot. Either someone's a HOF'er or he isn't. It boggles my mind that there are HOF voters who can believe a player is hall-worthy but not vote for him under the delusion that getting in on the first ballot accords some special distinction.

In any case, barring any steroid/HGH/etc. allegations, Manny will get in on the first try.

[NE MT GRIZZ]

lets compare to a few 1st ballot HOFers

..................H......R.......AB....AVG....OBP. ....HR....RBI
Ramirez.........2,234..1,357...7,132...313....409. ...496...1,624
Williams........2,654..1,798...7,706...344....482. ...521...1,839
Gehrig..........2,721..1,888...8,001...340....447. ...493...1,995
Yaz.............3,419..1,816..11,988...285....379. ...452...1,844
Mantle..........2,415..1,677...8,102...298....421. ...536...1,509




It just not right to mention Manny's name with Lou, Mickey, and Ted

xnonono2x

[NE MT GRIZZ]

23 current 500 home run members in the 120 year history or so of baseball? diminished plateau? are you serious?

Sure Bonds cheated and Sosa probably did too, but Bonds was probably still a 500 HR guy anyway.


By the time Manny is ready for the Hall, there will probably be at least 20 more members of the 500 club.

[Cleets]

It just not right to mention Manny's name with Lou, Mickey, and Ted

xnonono2x

Oh my... xlolx When should we be allowed to mention his name after he passes all of them...

[grizband]

lets compare to a few 1st ballot HOFers

..................H......R.......AB....AVG....OBP. ....HR....RBI
Ramirez.........2,234..1,357...7,132...313....409. ...496...1,624
Williams........2,654..1,798...7,706...344....482. ...521...1,839
Gehrig..........2,721..1,888...8,001...340....447. ...493...1,995
Yaz.............3,419..1,816..11,988...285....379. ...452...1,844
Mantle..........2,415..1,677...8,102...298....421. ...536...1,509


If you project Mannys numbers to the amount of ABs the other players has, Manny pretty much matches all of them in numbers. Im not sure how you can say hes not a first ballot HOF.
Looking at these stats, its amazing to think that neither Williams, Mantle nor Gehrig ever reached 3,000 hits. xrotatehx

[Cleets]

By the time Manny is ready for the Hall, there will probably be at least 20 more members of the 500 club.

I don't think so: Please name them..?

[UNHWildCats]

Looking at these stats, its amazing to think that neither Williams, Mantle nor Gehrig ever reached 3,000 hits. xrotatehx

Williams was a war hero who lost many ABs in his prime serving his country, Gehrig most certainly would have if not for ALS and Im sure most people wish they could be half as productive as Mantle while never having a Blood alcohol level under .10 :p

[UNHWildCats]

Pujols is the only player over 200 career homers who is anywhere near a lock for 500. Theres a couple others who have an outside shot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_500_home_run_hitters_of_all_time

[UNHWildCats]

oops I missed Sheffield, hes 19 short right now.

[NE MT GRIZZ]

I don't think so: Please name them..?

OK, so 20 might be a little high, here are some that will be very close(If they stay healthy) in 10 years, when Manny will be ready for the Hall:

Manny
Sheff
Chipper
Andruw Jones
Vlad
Pujols
Derek Lee
Adam Dunn
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Howard
Carlos Delgado
Lance Berkman
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran


The 500 club is not a lock for the Hall anymore.

[Cleets]

OK, so 20 might be a little high, here are some that will be very close(If they stay healthy) in 10 years, when Manny will be ready for the Hall:

Manny
Sheff
Chipper
Andruw Jones
Vlad
Pujols
Derek Lee
Adam Dunn
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Howard
Carlos Delgado
Lance Berkman
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran


The 500 club is not a lock for the Hall anymore.

Excuse me Chipper who..!! the cripple playing in Atlanta with one good season left.. xlolx
you can take half the guys off that list..!!!! xeyebrowx

about 8 guys are going to do it from that list (which should not include Manny)

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Looking at these stats, its amazing to think that neither Williams, Mantle nor Gehrig ever reached 3,000 hits. xrotatehx

And when I looked at the stats my first thought was what would Williams have been if he hadn't lost all the seasons while he served in WWII and Korea! Mind boggling to think what numbers he might have achieved if baseball wasn't impacted by WWII! He lost at least two seasons shortly after the year he hit .406!!

Not unreasonable to assume he would have got 346 hits during the lost seasons to achieve 3K. He probably would have been second to Ruth (and eventually fourth behind Bonds and Aaron) in homers with high 600's as well.

Mantle probably only has himself to blame because he really didn't take care of his body during his career from what I understand. He had great speed when his career started which would have translated into many hits even later in his career. Not sure he played as many seasons as he could have either. I'll let the Yankees fans provide their opinion.

Yaz had a very long career which is why he reached that plateau. He'd be the first to say that he wasn't as good a hitter as Ted.

[UMass922]

OK, so 20 might be a little high, here are some that will be very close(If they stay healthy) in 10 years, when Manny will be ready for the Hall:

Manny
Sheff
Chipper
Andruw Jones
Vlad
Pujols
Derek Lee
Adam Dunn
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Howard
Carlos Delgado
Lance Berkman
Alfonso Soriano
Carlos Beltran


The 500 club is not a lock for the Hall anymore.

Probably true, but it won't be difficult to distinguish the legit from the pretenders in that ever-increasing club. Manny's reputation as one of the most complete, feared, and fearless hitters of the era is secure. From that list, only Pujols and Vlad are arguably in his class (for relatively young guys like Howard and A. Ramirez, it's too soon to say). No one's going to be confusing Manny with Derek Lee or Carlos Delgado.

[JoltinJoe]

TM:

Manny's a first ballot guy, as I see it.

Why do you think he isn't?

[TheValleyRaider]

Im gonna email Paul from YF vs SF... he's a statistical nerd.... I'll ask him to tackle this on their blog.... when he does I will give ya the link to the post :p

I read it anyway :p

Replacement Level Yankees is also good for this kind of statistical thing. One of the guys there did a ranking of all-time Yankee seasons by position based on offensive stats adjusted on a per season basis. Really great stuff xnodx

[Reed Rothchild]

Absolutley xnodx

[grizband]

OK, so 20 might be a little high, here are some that will be very close(If they stay healthy) in 10 years, when Manny will be ready for the Hall:

Manny
Sheff maybe
Chipper maybe
Andruw Jones maybe
Vlad maybe
Pujols yes
Derek Lee no
Adam Dunn maybe
Aramis Ramirez no
Ryan Howard too early
Carlos Delgado maybe
Lance Berkman no
Alfonso Soriano no
Carlos Beltran no


The 500 club is not a lock for the Hall anymore.
Pujols is the only person on this list, if current trends remain, I see hitting 500 homeruns. Dunn may, but he strikes out a lot, and Howard needs to put together a couple more 40+ homerun seasons before I give him serious consideration.

[kardplayer]

Lots of questions here (some I'm reframing to make a point)

1. Is Manny a HOF'er
2. Is there a "special distinction" to be a first ballot guy
3. Is he a first ballot HOF'er
4. Is the 500 plateau not what it used to be

1. Yes. The HOF comes down to long periods of excellence, far above the field. Its hard to argue against a guy that has been an absolute threat for 10+ years. Any statistical analysis Paul or whoever could do is going to show that he was one of the top players of his era. A quick glance of baseball reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirma02.shtml) shows that he was #1 or #2 in the AL in OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) 6 times from 1999 to 2006 plus 5 more top 10's in that category between 1995 and 2005. Very impressive.

2. There is definitely a distinction for the first ballot - it is theoretically "reserved" for the all time greats. Think of it as the "VIP" level of HOF membership. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/01/05/first_ballot_ap/

3. For the most part, the first ballot thing holds, and for that, I'd have to see better era-adjusted stats, but my instinct says he's not first ballot worthy. I'd like to see him get to 550 HR's - that would put him ahead of Mike Schmidt, who hit 548 in a much tougher era.

4. To put the HR totals into perspective, there won't be 20 to get to 500 by the time Manny is on the ballot, but he is currently 9th out of players from his era behind Bonds (762), Sosa (609), Griffey Jr. (596), McGwire (583), Palmeiro (569), ARod (522), Frank Thomas (516), and Thome (512) and he leads Sheffield by 15. That makes the HR total not as impressive. In fact, I think a Manny vs. Thomas vs. Thome vs. Sheffield comparison could be very interesting to see how HOF-worthy they all are...

[Eyes of Old Main]

Manny will be in with no trouble unless it turns out he's a juicer like Barry, Sammy, McGwire, Palmiero, etc.

[UNHWildCats]

Lots of questions here (some I'm reframing to make a point)

1. Is Manny a HOF'er
2. Is there a "special distinction" to be a first ballot guy
3. Is he a first ballot HOF'er
4. Is the 500 plateau not what it used to be

1. Yes. The HOF comes down to long periods of excellence, far above the field. Its hard to argue against a guy that has been an absolute threat for 10+ years. Any statistical analysis Paul or whoever could do is going to show that he was one of the top players of his era. A quick glance of baseball reference.com (http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/ramirma02.shtml) shows that he was #1 or #2 in the AL in OPS (on base percentage + slugging percentage) 6 times from 1999 to 2006 plus 5 more top 10's in that category between 1995 and 2005. Very impressive.

2. There is definitely a distinction for the first ballot - it is theoretically "reserved" for the all time greats. Think of it as the "VIP" level of HOF membership. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/01/05/first_ballot_ap/

3. For the most part, the first ballot thing holds, and for that, I'd have to see better era-adjusted stats, but my instinct says he's not first ballot worthy. I'd like to see him get to 550 HR's - that would put him ahead of Mike Schmidt, who hit 548 in a much tougher era.

4. To put the HR totals into perspective, there won't be 20 to get to 500 by the time Manny is on the ballot, but he is currently 9th out of players from his era behind Bonds (762), Sosa (609), Griffey Jr. (596), McGwire (583), Palmeiro (569), ARod (522), Frank Thomas (516), and Thome (512) and he leads Sheffield by 15. That makes the HR total not as impressive. In fact, I think a Manny vs. Thomas vs. Thome vs. Sheffield comparison could be very interesting to see how HOF-worthy they all are...
Lets assume he plays four mor eyears beyond this year (He says he wants to play til hes 45 but we wont stretch that, With 4 more years he will be knocking on 600 nevermind 550.... Heck iof he keeps on the tear hes on he will approach 550 this season.

[UMass922]

2. There is definitely a distinction for the first ballot - it is theoretically "reserved" for the all time greats. Think of it as the "VIP" level of HOF membership. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/news/2002/01/05/first_ballot_ap/

Perhaps theoretically there is, but all you need to do is look at the list to see that it's much more arbitrary. DiMaggio isn't a first-ballot HOFer but Dave Winfield is? Yogi Berra isn't, but Robin Yount is? Killebrew isn't, but Puckett is? If there ever was a "VIP" status to being a first-ballot guy, there clearly isn't anymore, and it's time to stop pretending that it matters.

[blueballs]

23 current 500 home run members in the 120 year history or so of baseball? diminished plateau? are you serious?

Sure Bonds cheated and Sosa probably did too, but Bonds was probably still a 500 HR guy anyway.

Palmiero and McGwire too...

[blueballs]

Which brings me to this ponderance (if that's a word)... who among today's active players- meaning currently on a MLB roster- is a lock first ballot HOF?

My list would include Maddux, Glavine, A-Rod, Johnson...

... others who would merit consideration but not first ballot would be Jeter, Pudge, Rivera, Manny, Smoltz, Pedro, Chipper, Hoffman, Thome, Sheffield, Schilling, Kent...

There are several others who likely are on HOF career paths but haven't played long enough: Pujols, Ichiro, Utley, Beckett, Santana, Helton, Vlad...

A few recently retired players will receive strong consideration: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Thomas, Piazza...

Who else among these lists????

bold= locks to be inducted barring any unforseen circumstance.

[andy7171]

His statistics say he's a 1st ballot HOFer. But "Manny being Manny" might keep him out for a year. The Baseball Writers hold SERIOUS grudges, the bastages!

[813Jag]

should know that I never looked for dates on the street. xlolx

[813Jag]

His statistics say he's a 1st ballot HOFer. But "Manny being Manny" might keep him out for a year. The Baseball Writers hold SERIOUS grudges, the bastages!
It'll be interesting to see how "Manny being Manny" plays into his consideration.

[AZGrizFan]

His statistics say he's a 1st ballot HOFer. But "Manny being Manny" might keep him out for a year. The Baseball Writers hold SERIOUS grudges, the bastages!


It'll be interesting to see how "Manny being Manny" plays into his consideration.

See, this is my contention----Manny being Manny, IMHO,will DEFINITELY keep him out for at LEAST one year. I'm positive he'll be IN, but I see the BBWA being dicks, like they commonly are, when it comes to that "special" reservation of being a 1st ballot HOF'er. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

Anyway, I hope I'm right, because in 10 years (assuming he plays 5 more) I get a free lunch. xthumbsupx

Wait. I guess that'd have to be 11 years then...

[grizband]

Which brings me to this ponderance (if that's a word)... who among today's active players- meaning currently on a MLB roster- is a lock first ballot HOF?

My list would include Maddux, Glavine, A-Rod, Johnson...

... others who would merit consideration but not first ballot would be Jeter, Pudge, Rivera, Manny, Smoltz, Pedro, Chipper, Hoffman, Thome, Sheffield, Schilling, Kent...

There are several others who likely are on HOF career paths but haven't played long enough: Pujols, Ichiro, Utley, Beckett, Santana, Helton, Vlad...

A few recently retired players will receive strong consideration: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Thomas, Piazza...

Who else among these lists????

bold= locks to be inducted barring any unforseen circumstance.
In December, Clemens was on my list for a first-ballot HOF nod; now, I'm not sure he gets in.

[Cleets]

Which brings me to this ponderance (if that's a word)... who among today's active players- meaning currently on a MLB roster- is a lock first ballot HOF?

My list would include Maddux, Glavine, A-Rod, Johnson...

... others who would merit consideration but not first ballot would be Jeter, Pudge, Rivera, Manny, Smoltz, Pedro, Chipper, Hoffman, Thome, Sheffield, Schilling, Kent...

There are several others who likely are on HOF career paths but haven't played long enough: Pujols, Ichiro, Utley, Beckett, Santana, Helton, Vlad...

A few recently retired players will receive strong consideration: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Thomas, Piazza...

Who else among these lists????

bold= locks to be inducted barring any unforseen circumstance.

Blue...
I'm no Yankee fan but Jeter is the real deal... (He would be on my first ballot)
and Pudge too... he was the best catcher in all of MLB for 9 years in a row and was a top ten hitter for about 6 years - a very rare combination

[andy7171]

See, this is my contention----Manny being Manny, IMHO,will DEFINITELY keep him out for at LEAST one year. I'm positive he'll be IN, but I see the BBWA being dicks, like they commonly are, when it comes to that "special" reservation of being a 1st ballot HOF'er. xnodx xnodx xnodx xnodx

I completely agree with you. Especially about the BBWA! xthumbsupx

Should he be a first ballot? Yes. Will he? Prolly not.

[Marcus Garvey]

I didn't realize his numbers were that good. I guess all the roiders got me so jaded, I failed to notice. Also, I don't notice AL players that much since I don't see them play too much.

[UNHWildCats]

Tom Verducci chimes in on the historical perspective of Manny

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/04/22/manny/index.html?eref=writers

[JoltinJoe]

Blue...
I'm no Yankee fan but Jeter is the real deal... (He would be on my first ballot)
and Pudge too... he was the best catcher in all of MLB for 9 years in a row and was a top ten hitter for about 6 years - a very rare combination

Jeter will have 3,000 hits probably by the beginning of the 2011 season, and he will be only 36.

He's a first ballot lock.