Quick Women's First-Round Breakdown

[mvemjsunpx]

Greensboro (East)


Most Confident Pick


(1)UConn over (16)Cornell

Least Confident Pick


(5)Old Dominion over (12)Liberty

Double-Digit Upset Picks


(none)

Double-Digit Upsets I'm Not Picking, but Have a Good Shot


(12)Liberty over (5)Old Dominion
(15)Robert Morris over (2)Rutgers






Spokane (West)


Most Confident Pick


(2)Stanford over (15)Cleveland St.

Least Confident Pick


(5)West Virginia over (12)New Mexico

Double-Digit Upset Picks


(none)

Double-Digit Upsets I'm Not Picking, but Have a Good Shot


(10)Western Kentucky over (7)UTEP
(11)Wyoming over (6)Pittsburgh
(12)New Mexico over (5)West Virginia
(13)Montana over (4)Vanderbilt






New Orleans (Mideast)


Most Confident Pick


(2)LSU over (15)Jackson St.

Least Confident Pick


(8)Georgia over (9)Iowa

Double-Digit Upset Picks


(12)UT-Chattanooga over (5)Kansas St.

Double-Digit Upsets I'm Not Picking, but Have a Good Shot


(none)






Oklahoma City (Midwest)


Most Confident Pick


(1)Tennessee over (16)Oral Roberts

Least Confident Pick


(13)Illinois St. over (4)Oklahoma

Double-Digit Upset Picks


(10)Hartford over (7)Syracuse
(13)Illinois St. over (4)Oklahoma

Double-Digit Upsets I'm Not Picking, but Have a Good Shot


(11)Temple over (6)Arizona St.
(14)Murray St. over (3)Duke

[mvemjsunpx]

Bracket Analysis




- Albuquerque appears to be the most interesting subregion. Only the Baylor/Fresno game seems to be a foregone conclusion. New Mexico has home-court advantage (which could transfer to Montana for the late game if the Lobos beat WVU) & UNM, Montana, & Wyoming all have definite altitude advantages over their eastern opponents.

- Chattanooga & in particular Liberty are considerably better than their 12-seeds.

- I see a lot of first-round upset possibilities, but I'm only actually picking 3 double-digit seed upsets: Chattanooga over Kansas State (an obvious one given the injury situation for K-State); Illinois State over Oklahoma (the Redbirds' assist/turnover numbers are outstanding); & Hartford over Syracuse (the Hawks have the defensive & postseason experience advantages). Illinois State is the only double-digit seed I have going to the Sweet-16.

- North Carolina is the only 1-seed I don't have going to the Final-4. Their turnover numbers are way too crappy—either Louisville or LSU will knock them off.

- I have UConn over Tennessee in the title game. Not the matchup I want to see, but it's what I think will happen.

- The Oklahoma City region looks noticeably worse than the other three. Tennessee is strong, but the 2 through 7 seeds seem quite weak. Utah really got screwed. They were projected as an 4-seed, but ended up with an 8. I think the Utes are better than most, if not all, of the 2 through 7 seeds in their region. However, if they beat Purdue on the road, they'll have to play top-seeded Tennessee & not one of the vulnerable teams.

[TexasTerror]

- North Carolina is the only 1-seed I don't have going to the Final-4. Their turnover numbers are way too crappy—either Louisville or LSU will knock them off.

And throw in the fact that North Carolina has got to play in New Orleans against LSU, which despite UNC possibly being the best team in the regional, they are practically playing a road contest...

[ScottyDoesKnow]

The 5/12 match-ups seem to always brew an upset. I doubt that will happen this season. I look for all seeds 1-5 to pick up wins in the first round.

The Sun Belt is deplorable this year. From 7th last year as a conference to 15th this year. Western Kentucky is out in the first round at the hands of Texas-El Paso.

I like your pick for Wyoming over Pittsburgh. The Big East I think gets a little too much credit. Beyond UConn and Rutgers, there really are no other names in that league. Hartford over Syracuse is also a pretty good pick. Hartford is no stranger to the NCAA Women's Tournament.

I also like Temple over Arizona State.

[OB55]

Ahhh! Boxkitball excitement! :D

[mvemjsunpx]

Damn. Florida State's upset of Ohio State prevented me from going a perfect 16-0 in today's 1st-round games.

Worse yet, I had OSU in the Sweet-16.

[ScottyDoesKnow]

Ohio State goes out in the first round for the second straight season. Marist once again is a tournament media darling. Me thinks LSU's Sylvia Fowles will stuff the Red Foxes' inside guard play so unless Vianni can connect consistently from long range spreading LSU's defense out in order to create opportunities under the basket to score, Marist may be in a heap of trouble. Still, not a bad way to end it's MAAC tenure.

"Deplorable" was an understatement to describe the Sun Belt this year, and Western Kentucky's absolutely pathetic performance against UTEP was proof that not only was the Sun Belt bad, but that the Lady Toppers were overrated. WKU only had one win against a Power Six school--a squeaker over an average 16-15 Kentucky team. MTSU lost their credibility and the league's credibility by once again failing to make it past the second round of a postseason tournament. CUSA goes 2-0 against Belt teams in post season play. Southern Miss knocked out the Belt's 2nd best team in Arkansas-Little Rock in the WNIT first round. No more room to talk smack about CUSA by fans of the Belt. Truthfully, Western Kentucky should've been seeded no higher than 14th all along.

Only two upsets in the first round with all the Top 5 seeds winning so far goes to prove that parity in the women's game is a forgone conclusion.

(this message posted from the iPhone)

[mvemjsunpx]

Ohio State goes out in the first round for the second straight season. Marist once again is a tournament media darling. Me thinks LSU's Sylvia Fowles will stuff the Red Foxes' inside guard play so unless Vianni can connect consistently from long range spreading LSU's defense out in order to create opportunities under the basket to score, Marist may be in a heap of trouble. Still, not a bad way to end it's MAAC tenure.

"Deplorable" was an understatement to describe the Sun Belt this year, and Western Kentucky's absolutely pathetic performance against UTEP was proof that not only was the Sun Belt bad, but that the Lady Toppers were overrated. WKU only had one win against a Power Six school--a squeaker over an average 16-15 Kentucky team. MTSU lost their credibility and the league's credibility by once again failing to make it past the second round of a postseason tournament. CUSA goes 2-0 against Belt teams in post season play. Southern Miss knocked out the Belt's 2nd best team in Arkansas-Little Rock in the WNIT first round. No more room to talk smack about CUSA by fans of the Belt. Truthfully, Western Kentucky should've been seeded no higher than 14th all along.

Only two upsets in the first round with all the Top 5 seeds winning so far goes to prove that parity in the women's game is a forgone conclusion.

(this message posted from the iPhone)


There hasn't been any parity since the mid-90's when the bulk of the major conferences started caring about women's basketball. The big schools were then able to steal a lot of the thunder from the classic mid-major powers like Montana, Stephen F. Austin, & La Tech. Montana is still strong & La Tech was strong until Kurt Budke left for Oklahoma State, but those teams are now being consistently challenged in conference & aren't as good compared to the national powers as they used to be.