Who will Cinderella be this year?

[CopperCat]

So who will it be? George Mason again, or will it be San Diego or perhaps an at-large VCU team? What say ya'll?xchinscratchx

[YaleFootballFan]

Cornell. xthumbsupx

[wkuhillhound]

Cornell or South Alabama despite losing today. I still believe that they will get an at-large berth. xthumbsupx

[FargoBison]

Drake, they are having a cinderella season right now and I don't see it stopping.

[wkuhillhound]

Would you include Butler?

[otto4pres]

Hello.

[AZGrizFan]

Can a 9-9 team from the Pac-10 be considered a "Cinderella"? If so, I nominate Arizona State University:

Quality wins:

Xavier
USC
Stanford
U of A (2 times)

[mvemjsunpx]

Drake - I'm not sure if they count as a Cinderella since they'll be at least a 5-seed, but they're obviously very good.

Butler - See Drake, but with more tournament upset experience.

Stephen F. Austin - A 3-2 record against the RPI top-100 including wins over Oklahoma & San Diego. They still have to win the Southland, though.

George Mason - Aside from their '06 Cinderella credentials, they have a 2-1 record against the RPI top-50 with wins over Dayton & Kansas State.

[mvemjsunpx]

Possible Women's Cinderellas

Marist - Last year's women's Cinderella is even better this year: they're ranked in the top-25, they close games well with superb free-throw shooting, and they posted back-to-back Oahu wins over RPI top-25 teams Utah & Nebraska.

Montana - If they don't choke in the Big Sky Tournament again, they'll be dangerous. The Lady Griz shoot the three exceptionally well & do a great job on post defense, so they have a good shot at an upset or two. They rank in the top-25 in five stats: scoring, shooting % defense, free-throw %, 3-point %, & turnovers. Side note: if the Lady Griz win the BSC tourney & somehow get to the elite-8, that will give head coach Robin Selvig 700 wins.

Utah - I'm not sure if they qualify as a Cinderella, but the Utes have won 22 straight games heading into the Mountain West tournament. Their defense, as always, is outstanding.

Wisconsin-Green Bay - The Phoenix won an NCAA tourney game last year & could be primed for at least one more as they lead the nation in 3-point shooting (43.1%).

James Madison - The Dukes may need to win the CAA tournament to get in, but they could post some upsets if they do. They have a lot of size & rank near the top in both rebounding & blocks. JMU also has two RPI top-25 wins including a 25-point pasting of George Washington.

[andy7171]

I have to say Drake will be considered a Cinderella, even though they'll be a top seed.

[mcveyrl]

I think Davidson could make a decent run.

[AshevilleApp2]

I think Davidson could make a decent run.

Second.

[wkuhillhound]

Possible Women's Cinderellas

Marist - Last year's women's Cinderella is even better this year: they're ranked in the top-25, they close games well with superb free-throw shooting, and they posted back-to-back Oahu wins over RPI top-25 teams Utah & Nebraska.

Montana - If they don't choke in the Big Sky Tournament again, they'll be dangerous. The Lady Griz shoot the three exceptionally well & do a great job on post defense, so they have a good shot at an upset or two. They rank in the top-25 in five stats: scoring, shooting % defense, free-throw %, 3-point %, & turnovers. Side note: if the Lady Griz win the BSC tourney & somehow get to the elite-8, that will give head coach Robin Selvig 700 wins.

Utah - I'm not sure if they qualify as a Cinderella, but the Utes have won 22 straight games heading into the Mountain West tournament. Their defense, as always, is outstanding.

Wisconsin-Green Bay - The Phoenix won an NCAA tourney game last year & could be primed for at least one more as they lead the nation in 3-point shooting (43.1%).

James Madison - The Dukes may need to win the CAA tournament to get in, but they could post some upsets if they do. They have a lot of size & rank near the top in both rebounding & blocks. JMU also has two RPI top-25 wins including a 25-point pasting of George Washington.

Add Western Kentucky to the mix. They have the Top 15 leading scorer in NCAA history in Crystal Kelly. Her number has already been retired. She is first athlete to ever get their number retired before finishing their career n WKU history. Made the WNIT Final Four the last two years. They are tournament savvy and will create havoc b/c they are a unknown commodity.

[mvemjsunpx]

Add Western Kentucky to the mix. They have the Top 15 leading scorer in NCAA history in Crystal Kelly. Her number has already been retired. She is first athlete to ever get their number retired before finishing their career n WKU history. Made the WNIT Final Four the last two years. They are tournament savvy and will create havoc b/c they are a unknown commodity.

I don't see WKU's women having much of a Cinderella shot. Their defense is average at best & they turn it over too much. They score well inside, but most of the major conference schools are equipped to contain inside scoring & the Hilltoppers don't shoot the 3 enough to counter that. They've also been handled by all the RPI top-50 teams they've played other than MTSU (who is 50th.).

Western Kentucky might win a first-round game because they'll likely be seeded as a 9 or 10, but anything beyond that would be quite surprising.

[wkuhillhound]

I don't see WKU's women having much of a Cinderella shot. Their defense is average at best & they turn it over too much. They score well inside, but most of the major conference schools are equipped to contain inside scoring & the Hilltoppers don't shoot the 3 enough to counter that. They've also been handled by all the RPI top-50 teams they've played other than MTSU (who is 50th.).

Western Kentucky might win a first-round game because they'll likely be seeded as a 9 or 10, but anything beyond that would be quite surprising.

Hence, Cinderella.

They do have major weaknesses, especially the turnovers. They do play a tough schedule every year. They should have won at least one of those games. They are not the powerhouse like they used to be in the 80s when they went to two Final Fours. They are starting to show some life.

[mvemjsunpx]

Hence, Cinderella.

They do have major weaknesses, especially the turnovers. They do play a tough schedule every year. They should have won at least one of those games. They are not the powerhouse like they used to be in the 80s when they went to two Final Fours. They are starting to show some life.

Winning a first-round game as a 9 or 10-seed doesn't make you a Cinderella; that's pretty typical. I'm mainly listing likely double-digit seeds that can scare or beat noticeably higher seeds &/or mid-majors that can make it deep in the tournament. I wouldn't quite put WKU in either category. Anything beyond a first-round win over a slightly higher seed seems exceedingly unlikely for them.

They should have won at least one of those games? Other than against conference foe MTSU (who is barely in the top-50 & may not be come selection time), they lost to each of their RPI top-50 opponents by 16 points or more.

[wkuhillhound]

Winning a first-round game as a 9 or 10-seed doesn't make you a Cinderella; that's pretty typical. I'm mainly listing likely double-digit seeds that can scare or beat noticeably higher seeds &/or mid-majors that can make it deep in the tournament. I wouldn't quite put WKU in either category. Anything beyond a first-round win over a slightly higher seed seems exceedingly unlikely for them.

They should have won at least one of those games? Other than against conference foe MTSU (who is barely in the top-50 & may not be come selection time), they lost to each of their RPI top-50 opponents by 16 points or more.

Since they won the tournament. They are in anyway. If WKU can make noise it will surprise a lot of people.

[mvemjsunpx]

Since they won the tournament. They are in anyway. If WKU can make noise it will surprise a lot of people.

I agree. And WKU is a quality team. However, my effort was to analyze who I actually think has a good shot at doing what it takes to be a surprise Cinderella. I don't think WKU really fits the bill. Beating a 7 or 8-seed doesn't make you a Cinderella & they aren't strong enough in the areas a mid-major needs to be strong in to upset a top-flight team. They probably will also have to play a 1 or 2-seed in the second round, which isn't likely to go well for them. If you want the Lady Toppers to have any chance at being a Cinderella, you'd better hope for an 11, 12, or 13-seed.

[wkuhillhound]

I agree. And WKU is a quality team. However, my effort was to analyze who I actually think has a good shot at doing what it takes to be a surprise Cinderella. I don't think WKU really fits the bill. Beating a 7 or 8-seed doesn't make you a Cinderella & they aren't strong enough in the areas a mid-major needs to be strong in to upset a top-flight team. They probably will also have to play a 1 or 2-seed in the second round, which isn't likely to go well for them. If you want the Lady Toppers to have any chance at being a Cinderella, you'd better hope for an 11, 12, or 13-seed.

Fair enough.

[89Hen]

Saw a great sign from the CAA championship game...


GEORGE MASON...
this year's
GEORGE MASON

[whitey]

So who will it be? George Mason again, or will it be San Diego or perhaps an at-large VCU team? What say ya'll?xchinscratchx


VCU's chances are not looking good at all for a at-large bid at this point. Their RPI is 57. They have no wins against teams with an RPI in the top 50. Not helping their case is that South Alabama, Gonzaga/St. Mary's did not win their conference's respective auto-bids.

If they lost to Mason in the CAA Tourney final rather than W&M in the semi-finals, they would actually be in a better (although not ideal) spot. Anyway I think they are going to be in that "Last 4/Last 8 Out group" meaning the Rams are NIT bound.

I think that Davidson, George Mason & San Diego have the best chances of being this year's "Cinderella".

[USDFAN_55]

I'm thinking Davidson has a good shot a pulling of a few surprising wins. Right now they (ESPN, who is wrong most of the time) are projecting San Diego to be a 15 seed (which I think is rediculaouslly high; I was thinking more like a 12 seed); if they do get 14/15 seed I don't think they'll get out of the 1st round. Funny that they are projecting Saint Mary's and Kentucky a lot higher when San Diego beat both of them, and the Kentucky game was in Kentucky. I guess that's part of the maddness of the tournament.

[mcveyrl]

I'm thinking Davidson has a good shot a pulling of a few surprising wins. Right now they (ESPN, who is wrong most of the time) are projecting San Diego to be a 15 seed (which I think is rediculaouslly high; I was thinking more like a 12 seed); if they do get 14/15 seed I don't think they'll get out of the 1st round. Funny that they are projecting Saint Mary's and Kentucky a lot higher when San Diego beat both of them, and the Kentucky game was in Kentucky. I guess that's part of the maddness of the tournament.

12 seeds are usually listed as bubble teams (if you look at Lunardi's last four in, they are usually 11-13 seeds). In order to be a 12, SD would have to have been in that discussion before their tourney win.

I think that 13-15 is realistic. As far as St. Mary's and Kentucky, you know that you have to look at the whole body of work. Kentucky beat Tennessee, but I'm not sure you'll get much outrage when UT's a 1 or 2 seed.

[USDFAN_55]

12 seeds are usually listed as bubble teams (if you look at Lunardi's last four in, they are usually 11-13 seeds). In order to be a 12, SD would have to have been in that discussion before their tourney win.

I think that 13-15 is realistic. As far as St. Mary's and Kentucky, you know that you have to look at the whole body of work. Kentucky beat Tennessee, but I'm not sure you'll get much outrage when UT's a 1 or 2 seed.

Not at all, after all Tennessee is the SEC champs (at least the east, but they should be the overall champs at the end of the SEC tournament). I just think a 15 seed is a slap in the face. 13 is what we got last time in pretty much the same circumstances, so that is a very good possibility.

[mcveyrl]

Not at all, after all Tennessee is the SEC champs (at least the east, but they should be the overall champs at the end of the SEC tournament). I just think a 15 seed is a slap in the face. 13 is what we got last time in pretty much the same circumstances, so that is a very good possibility.

Didn't St. Mary's finish ahead of you in conference?xeyebrowx

Using that rational, though, here's Lunardi's breakdown:

13 Seeds

SFA (Tied for league championship)
Oral Roberts (tied for league championship)
WKU (tied for league championship)
Cornell (won conference)

14 Seeds

UC S-B (tied for league championship)
Utah St. (tied for league championship)
Austin Peay (won conference - by 3 games)
Siena (tied for league championship)

Now, knowing that the committee values conference championships, I don't think it's unreasonable to think that USD would be a 15 seed. But, I do think they should be 13-14.

[813Jag]

Not at all, after all Tennessee is the SEC champs (at least the east, but they should be the overall champs at the end of the SEC tournament). I just think a 15 seed is a slap in the face. 13 is what we got last time in pretty much the same circumstances, so that is a very good possibility.
It's hard to project seeds at this point, there's lots of tourneys to be played and lots of movement to be made by bubble teams.

[Ivytalk]

Either Cornell or Hillary Clinton.xcoolx

[elcid96]

Definitely Davidson.

[crunifan]

While Drake is having an unbelievable year, I find it hard to call the winner of the Valley a Cinderella team. Valley teams have sent many teams to the Sweet Sixteen and have been ever so close to making it farther.

I nominate Davidson.

[USDFAN_55]

While Drake is having an unbelievable year, I find it hard to call the winner of the Valley a Cinderella team. Valley teams have sent many teams to the Sweet Sixteen and have been ever so close to making it farther.

I nominate Davidson.

But haven't those teams all been considered Cinderellas? Drake can still be considered a Cinderella in my book.

[mvemjsunpx]

Possible Women's Cinderellas

Marist - Last year's women's Cinderella is even better this year: they're ranked in the top-25, they close games well with superb free-throw shooting, and they posted back-to-back Oahu wins over RPI top-25 teams Utah & Nebraska.

Montana - If they don't choke in the Big Sky Tournament again, they'll be dangerous. The Lady Griz shoot the three exceptionally well & do a great job on post defense, so they have a good shot at an upset or two. They rank in the top-25 in five stats: scoring, shooting % defense, free-throw %, 3-point %, & turnovers. Side note: if the Lady Griz win the BSC tourney & somehow get to the elite-8, that will give head coach Robin Selvig 700 wins.

Utah - I'm not sure if they qualify as a Cinderella, but the Utes have won 22 straight games heading into the Mountain West tournament. Their defense, as always, is outstanding.

Wisconsin-Green Bay - The Phoenix won an NCAA tourney game last year & could be primed for at least one more as they lead the nation in 3-point shooting (43.1%).

James Madison - The Dukes may need to win the CAA tournament to get in, but they could post some upsets if they do. They have a lot of size & rank near the top in both rebounding & blocks. JMU also has two RPI top-25 wins including a 25-point pasting of George Washington.


OK, you may be able to scratch Utah off the list. They're still a lock for the NCAA's, but they just lost to 3-27 Colorado State in the MWC quarters.

[SO ILLmatic]

I cant see Davidson being considered as a Cinderella . These teams usually come outta nowhere and have a phenomenal 1st or 2nd round game against whomever they are playing.

Davidson has played alot of teams from the power-conferences during their non-conference schedule (and they played many of these games closely).


teams will know what to expect from Davidson & Stephen Curry.



I got a good feeling about Siena & San Diego for some reason...

[furpal87]

I just want to see Davidson get matched with a non-ACC team, since the ACC schools know all about them. I'm kind of hoping about an 11 seed with a team like Baylor or Miss State, who doesn't have much tournament experience and doesn't know that much about them.

[RabidRabbit]

OK, you may be able to scratch Utah off the list. They're still a lock for the NCAA's, but they just lost to 3-27 Colorado State in the MWC quarters.

Called looking past the next game. xrolleyesx Utah, previously rated 18th, shouldn't be out of the NCAA's due to a one game error. But, it's happened before. They'd be a TOUGH WNIT team. xtwocentsx

[813Jag]

I just want to see Davidson get matched with a non-ACC team, since the ACC schools know all about them. I'm kind of hoping about an 11 seed with a team like Baylor or Miss State, who doesn't have much tournament experience and doesn't know that much about them.
I think Mississippi State will be higher than a 6 seed and they don't have NCAA tourney expierence but they do have postseason expirence, they made a deep run in the NIT. Baylor may be a low seed themselves depending on how they do in the Big 12.

Davidson and Butler will be dangerous teams.

[mvemjsunpx]

Called looking past the next game. xrolleyesx Utah, previously rated 18th, shouldn't be out of the NCAA's due to a one game error. But, it's happened before. They'd be a TOUGH WNIT team. xtwocentsx

Yep, like to Montana last year. :(

Even weirder for Utah's loss is that they were 16-0 in the MWC regular season while CSU was 0-16.

[Ivytalk]

Looks like it won't be Nova. G'town just beat them by 19.

[elcid96]

I think Mississippi State will be higher than a 6 seed and they don't have NCAA tourney expierence but they do have postseason expirence, they made a deep run in the NIT. Baylor may be a low seed themselves depending on how they do in the Big 12.

Davidson and Butler will be dangerous teams.

The NIT is a waste of time. South Carolina won the NIT twice and failed to even qualify for the NCAA tourney the next year.

[Biff]

The NIT is a waste of time. South Carolina won the NIT twice and failed to even qualify for the NCAA tourney the next year.

That's cause they're Cock's

[Thunderstruck84]

I'll go with Kent State, Joe Lunardi's got them as a 10 seed even though they're a top 25 RPI team and getting votes in both polls. They've also got the experience to do what it takes to win a tournament game or two.

[wkuhillhound]

Lunardi has WKU playing Butler in the 1st round. That is a no-win situation for anyone. They have Butler as a 5 seed. It seems to be an intriguing match up but not a 1st round game..... xnonox

One of the other brackets had WKU playing Drake another no-win situation for anyone. I thought that you would want the teams Mid-Major to be alive as long as possible. Go figure.

[Rob Iola]

Folks, I'm proud to say that I'm both a Henz grad (ChE 86) and a Mason grad (MBA 98) - even after going to Chatty in '03 I can safely say that the only time I cried over a sporting event was when Mason beat UConn to reach the Final Four in '06. They return 2 starters from that team - Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell (not sure if FCam started in '06, but he definitely contributed) - depending on their bracket they could reach the Sweet 16 but that would be about it.

[UNCBears2010]

I've got three words, er, letters for you guys: BYU.

[Rob Iola]

I've got three words, er, letters for you guys: BYU.
Bring Your Ukelele? Stunningly pointless...

[813Jag]

Lunardi has WKU playing Butler in the 1st round. That is a no-win situation for anyone. They have Butler as a 5 seed. It seems to be an intriguing match up but not a 1st round game..... xnonox

One of the other brackets had WKU playing Drake another no-win situation for anyone. I thought that you would want the teams Mid-Major to be alive as long as possible. Go figure.
When you reach the level Butler has gotten to the last few years it's every team for himself. Me personally, I think it's a good thing (not that a mid-major would be knocked off by a nother mid-major) but just the fact that these teams are getting seeds high enough for these match-ups to even be possible.

[wkuhillhound]

When you reach the level Butler has gotten to the last few years it's every team for himself. Me personally, I think it's a good thing (not that a mid-major would be knocked off by a nother mid-major) but just the fact that these teams are getting seeds high enough for these match-ups to even be possible.

Great point.

[UNCBears2010]

Bring Your Ukelele? Stunningly pointless...

No, I mean Brigham Young University. That's my Cinderella this year.

[OB55]

No, I mean Brigham Young University. That's my Cinderella this year.

Breed 'em Young?? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit, they blow. Even with two or three years maturity on everybody else. You LDS? xlolxxlolxxlolx






:p

[OB55]

Well since the Breed 'em Young 28 year olds took a dump in the Mountain West Tournament they will really be cinderellas in the big show. Or maybe the only polygams in the Big Love!! xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

[UNCBears2010]

Well since the Breed 'em Young 28 year olds took a dump in the Mountain West Tournament they will really be cinderellas in the big show. Or maybe the only polygams in the Big Love!! xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx xlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolxxlolx

Laugh if you want, my Cinderellas the last two years, UNLV and Montana, made the Sweet 16.xthumbsupx

[mvemjsunpx]

Laugh if you want, my Cinderellas the last two years, UNLV and Montana, made the Sweet 16.xthumbsupx

Uh, Montana only went to the second round in '06.

[OB55]

I don't recall UNLV in the Sweet 16 since the Tarkanian days. xcoffeex

[813Jag]

I don't recall UNLV in the Sweet 16 since the Tarkanian days. xcoffeex
They made a run last year. They beat Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. They lost to Oregon in the Sweet 16.