Big Sky Preview Week 5

[catbob]

Didn't have time to write one up last week, sorry. :)

This week pits two ranked BSC squads against one another, and should have pit 2 more against each other, but ISU did not make it in the AGS poll, though they did in several other polls. At any rate:

#24 Portland State @ #11 Eastern Washington
- The Eagles played badly at Idaho State. They turned the ball over 4 times. Idaho States defense shut down the running game, giving up only 61 yards on the ground. Is this the way to beat EWU? The answer is no, because Meyer and Kimble alone can kill you, who needs to run the ball? Last week was a bad example of the typical Eagles offense, and I look for them to rebound well at home. The question is, can the EAgles stop Joe Rubin, who rushed for an astounding 356 yards and 5 TDs last week vs UNC. The Vikings stayed away from the typica Big Sky formula with a tough defense and a smashmouth running game, but they will get down early and running can't save you then.
What to watch : Joe Rubin was ridiculous last week, and could have another big day against a suspect Eagle defense.
- 24-38

Idaho State @ #16 Montana State
- The Bobcats rebounded very well last week against NDSU after a crushing loss at Cal Poly. Though not impressive in their win against NDSU, they quietly beat a team that was arguably the hottest team in the country. MSU suffered some key injuries in that game, and will be without two of their leading LBs, their leading rusher, and a starting DL. They didn't play most of the game vs NDSU, either (except for the RB). Last years leading rusher will get the start, so don't expect any significant drop-off from the Cats already mediocre ground game. ISU is also plagued with injuries, but are coming into Bozeman very confident about their upset (which I predicted :)) last week against EWU. And they are playing very good defense as this point. But despite their victory, they only gained 301 yards of total offense and their passing game has been fairly dismal, throwing only 3 TDs and 7 Picks so far. If Hagler is off his game, he could meet a similar fate that Dixon (SFA) met in Bozeman - 3 picks. I look for MSU to control both sides of the ball and win fairly easily.
What to watch : In their two home games, MSU has allowed 120 RYPG against 2 run-oriented offenses, and have only given up a total of 23 points in those two contests.
- 14-31

Weber State @ #4 Montana
- The Wildcats have been up and down this season. They beat up on Western St 61-0, then get pounded at #24 Fresno (and rightfully so), Get hammered by NDSU 41-0, then turn around and beat a pretty talented NAU team at home. The Grizzlies are coming off a 7-0 win against a tough SDSU squad, but I though I'd never see the day where I would say that Weber has more offense than the Grizzlies right now. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, if the Griz only score 7 again, it will be enough to win, that is how good the Griz defense has been playing. I look for the Griz to find some sort of rhythm offensively, and play solid defense again. Weber has some talent and a great coach, but the Griz play too well in the confines of Washington-Grizzly Stadium.
What to watch : Weber has a very good running game and it sets up the playaction passes quite well. If they can get any sucess running the ball it will open the field up.
- 10-19

Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State
- What can you say about Sac St? Nothing positive. They are playing absolutely awful on both sides of the ball. They have been outscored 143-35 in just 4 games. Their only hope is to duplicate Webers performance vs NAU, which was run the ball effectively. They have a good RB in Ryan Mole, but he has no line to run behind. The Jacks are coming off a tough loss to Weber on the road in which Murietta didn't complete 50% of his passes. So far this season NAU hasn't proven it can beat a quality IAA squad, but Sac St is far from a quality IAA squad. Murietta can have another subpar day and still I like the Jacks in this one.
What to watch : Murietta could be due for a breakout game, as he has only passed over 200 yards twice this year (209 twice).
- 28-14

Possible upset of the week: Weber over UM.
Best matchup: PSU vs EWU
Worst matchup: NAU vs CSUS

[JALMOND]

I'd be willing to be that all the games will be closer than those scores...

PSU at EWU---Eagles troubles will continue against an excellent Viking defense. Rubin will have another big day as PSU steals one in Cheney (OK, so I am a homer)...PSU 24, EWU 20.

ISU at MSU---Maybe the best game of the week. Idaho State wants to prove they are that good and the Bobcats also want to prove they are as well. This will be nip and tuck all the way. MSU 28, ISU 27 as the Bengals miss a 2-point conversion with no time left.

Weber at Montana---Questions surrounding this game. Which Weber team will show up. Will the Griz offense get going? The way the year has gone so far...Weber 12, Montana 10.

NAU at Sac St---NAU gave up a tough one on the road to Weber last week. Sac St still waiting for a breakout game. Upset here...Sac St 21, NAU 17.

There, that should really mess up the Big Sky standings.

[biobengal]

"I look for MSU to control both sides of the ball and win fairly easily."

Wow!! Really? "CONTROL both sides of the ball"? Not going to happen. I don't care how good Lulay is, if you can't run the ball, your not going to "control both sides of the ball" and "win fairly easily". You said the cats have given up 120 yards to two opponents, you left a little something out, you know, the other two opponents: MSU opponents 180.5 ypg, MSU 114.3. For the sake of comparison: ISU 187.5, ISU opponents 60.0.

"their passing game has been fairly dismal, throwing only 3 TDs and 7 Picks so far".

Dismal? I don't agree. I would say Hagler actually stacks up fairly well with Lulay, despite his senior status. The 7 picks seem pretty bad, any bengal fan will tell you quite a few of those picks came on tipped balls. The receivers are getting better about handling Hagler's velocity. Additionally, 4 of those picks came against Kentucky.

CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT RAT
Travis Lulay 68 114 861 59.6 7.55 7 3 138.1
Matt Hagler 66 110 824 60.0 7.49 3 7 119.2

It is obvious to most that it is early to be quoting stats, but there is certainly more to these stats than was presented in your "win fairly easily" argument. I don't have any problem with you picking MSU, you should. Homecoming for the cats, your house, bengal road woes. However, if you truly believe your prediction of a fairly easy win you are going to be sorely disappointed. :D

[Tod]

Only two posts on this thread so far, but I find it amazing that you both think Weber has a good shot at the Griz. Upset of the week? Try Sac State over NAU for a much better possibility, as I don't think either of the other two games would be much of an upset whoever wins.

Plus, the Griz are at home and NAU is on the road.

Edit: There were only two posts when I first started writing this post.

[catbob]

"I look for MSU to control both sides of the ball and win fairly easily."

Wow!! Really? "CONTROL both sides of the ball"? Not going to happen. I don't care how good Lulay is, if you can't run the ball, your not going to "control both sides of the ball" and "win fairly easily".

You can win very easily without a running game. I said MSU has a mediocre running game, not an non-existant one. We average 125 on the ground per game. Nothing to brag about, but it isn't like we can't run. Mediocre at best.



You said the cats have given up 120 yards to two opponents, you left a little something out, you know, the other two opponents: MSU opponents 180.5 ypg, MSU 114.3. For the sake of comparison: ISU 187.5, ISU opponents 60.0.

I said in their two home games. Unfortunately MSU is a different team at home. NDSU RYPG prior to MSU - 193. Rushing yards against MSU - 135. Again, nothing to brag about, but we held a good rushing team to an average day. More importantly I guess is points. We held a team averaging 45 points a game to 17. SFA averaging 51 points a game, they scored 6 on us. Also SFA is averaing 168 RYPG, they got 106 against us.




"their passing game has been fairly dismal, throwing only 3 TDs and 7 Picks so far".

Dismal? I don't agree. I would say Hagler actually stacks up fairly well with Lulay, despite his senior status. The 7 picks seem pretty bad, any bengal fan will tell you quite a few of those picks came on tipped balls. The receivers are getting better about handling Hagler's velocity. Additionally, 4 of those picks came against Kentucky.

CMP ATT YDS CMP% YDS/A TD INT RAT
Travis Lulay 68 114 861 59.6 7.55 7 3 138.1
Matt Hagler 66 110 824 60.0 7.49 3 7 119.2

He throws for a decent amount of yards, but 3TDs through the air in 4 games isn't what I'd call stellar. Comparing stats there more or less just backed up my claim.


However, if you truly believe your prediction of a fairly easy win you are going to be sorely disappointed. :D

That is all it is, a prediction. I believe the Bengals will ride into Bozeman a little cocky, and that can either be a good or bad thing. I just feel the Cats put a complete game together this Saturday. The Bengals play tough, but I feel the Cats are too good right now. The game could go either way, I'm not 100% confident in my prediction of course, but I just see the Cats winning in a convincing fashion. Call me a homer, but the win vs EWU didn't impress me as much as everyone else. Hope ISU doesn't prove me wrong. :)

By the way, I'm 5/6 on predictions thus far, my only downfall being Cal Poly. :)

[catbob]

Only two posts on this thread so far, but I find it amazing that you both think Weber has a good shot at the Griz. Upset of the week? Try Sac State over NAU for a much better possibility, as I don't think either of the other two games would be much of an upset whoever wins.

Plus, the Griz are at home and NAU is on the road.

Edit: There were only two posts when I first started writing this post.

Weber might be a little better team than people realize. If you have an average defense, which Weber does, stopping the Griz isn't rocket science. Stuff Hilliard and make Washington beat you. If Weber can find away around the Griz defense and get a running game going, win the possession battle, I like their chances. But that is optimum scenario for Weber, and I don't see it happening, hence my prediction. :) It will probably be 19-3 in the 4th and Weber scores in the last 6 minutes of regulation or so.

[biobengal]

"He throws for a decent amount of yards, but 3TDs through the air in 4 games isn't what I'd call stellar."

Your right 3 td's is not awesome, but did you notice Hagler likes to get them on the ground. In fact, he has more td's (4) than the whole MSU rushing attack (3) and I hear MSU has lost their #1.

You might not be impressed with Hagler, who is just a sophomore, but you take away a couple of unlucky bounces and Hagler is right up there with Lulay, who is the BEST EVER at msu. Still not convinced this kid will be good? Wait till next year, we get everybody back on offense, everybody!

[catbob]

Yea ISU is going to be scary good next year. They are going to get better and better as the season progresses, but they aren't at the Cats level just yet.

Our #2 RB was our #1 all of last year so we are in capable hands.

[Tod]

"He throws for a decent amount of yards, but 3TDs through the air in 4 games isn't what I'd call stellar."

Your right 3 td's is not awesome, but did you notice Hagler likes to get them on the ground. In fact, he has more td's (4) than the whole MSU rushing attack (3) and I hear MSU has lost their #1.

You might not be impressed with Hagler, who is just a sophomore, but you take away a couple of unlucky bounces and Hagler is right up there with Lulay, who is the BEST EVER at msu. Still not convinced this kid will be good? Wait till next year, we get everybody back on offense, everybody!

:eek: :eek: :eek:

What about the D?

[eagle1]

ISU is indeed improved but the Eagles shot themselves in the foot at ISU with (very) poor special teams play. ISU can run the ball but they are not in PSU category. Their passing game is suspect. I just don't see ISU winning on the road (outdoors) at MSU. I hope that the Eagles can rebound and beat PSU at home. PSU scares me the most of all the Big Sky teams. They have a very tough defense and they can run the ball on offense. Just like ISU, their passing game is suspect. Go Eagles!!!

[WYOBISONMAN]

I think the Idaho State/Montana State game could be a real battle. I plan on watching that one on TV at the bar.

[WhereDoITypeMyUsername?]

As long as Lulay's in the backfield, MSU will have at least a competent running threat. I think ISU will be down from the emotional high of last week with the off-field troubles and the Cats'll be able to handle 'em after the Bengals' early-game emotional burst plays out.

And Weber will get their ass handed to 'em in Missou.

I agree with WYOBISON that ISU/MSU should be exciting, but the real telling matchup in the Sky in my opinion is EWU/PSU.

Some of us wondered just how the Eagles would do this year without a proven running back. I postulated publicly (http://www.egriz.com/GrizBoard/viewtopic.php?p=90605#90605) prior to the season that a lot of the success or the Erik-to-Eric hookup could be attributed to the excellent Darius Washington... and wondered how they'd do this year without a superior running game to take the pressure off of Meyer. That appears to be panning out somewhat. They also really benefited from the excellent O-Line play, which hasn't materialized this year so far. We'll get an even better look on Saturday.

[Aggie71]

Poly will be the downfall of all of us, I think. Smart kids, good coaching, good school, good location and good tradition.

Darn, sounds like another school in N. Cal.

GO AGS

[catbob]

Well for the second time I missed a perfect week by one game. Last time it was MSU falling at Poly, and this time Sac St surprised everyone by beating NAU.

So for the season in my 2 prediction threads, I am 9/11. :P

[JALMOND]

You're a much better picker than I am, Catbob (although I did get the Sac St/NAU game don't ask me how). Simply, this week the favorites (UM, MSU and EWU) beat the upstarts (Weber, ISU and PSU). My travels through Montana this weekend made me listen to portions of the UM game and the MSU game. The Cats and Griz are definitely good this year, but watch out for Weber and ISU. My take, the conference is shaping up to be a great race this year.