Chipper a future Hall of Famer?

[terrierbob]

In his career through the 2007 season, Jones is a .307/.403/.546 hitter with 386 home runs, 1,152 walks and 1,299 RBIs in 1,985 games. He is behind only Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray on the all-time switch hitters career home run list. He is considered one of the game's best all-around hitters, and one of the best switch hitters in the history of the game.He is the only switch hitter in Major League Baseball history to have a .300+ career batting average and more than 300 home runs. Mantle, widely regarded as the greatest switch hitter of all time, ended his career with a .298 batting average

[UNHWildCats]

I think he is. 500 HRs might not be a stretch.

He's 36 and if he plays another 4 years he would need to average 28 or so HRs to reach 500. He's only hit less then 25 three times, his rookie year, his third year and an injury year.

[DinoDex200]

He's in, regardless. If he didn't play one more game...the best player on one of the best teams of his era, one of the top 3 switch hitters of all time, and offensively productive from a position not known for big numbers.

In the interest of full disclosure - I am a Braves fan. :)

[UNHWildCats]

Since when is a 3B/LF not an offensive position?

[andy7171]

If he keeps his average up and gets 450 HRs, I don't see why not.

[whitey]

I doubt Chipper plays 4 more years. He's already hinted at retiring after this one hasn't he?

Anyway...I think he deserves to be in the H.O.F. I wouldn't consider him a lock, but he'll probably get in...just maybe not on the first ballot.

Don't forget that the he also has 1 MVP, 2 Silver Sluggers and 5 All-Star appearances, which the Baseball Writer's love to look at.

FWIW here are the 10 players (http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=jonesch06:Chipper+Jones&st=age&compage=35&age=35) he is most similiar to according to Baseball Reference:
- Gary Sheffield
- Duke Snider (HOF)
- Jeff Bagwell
- Frank Thomas
- Billy Williams (HOF)
- Mike Schmidt (HOF)
- Rafeal Palmeiro
- Bernie Williams
- Reggie Jackson (HOF)
- Fred McGriff

Look at the company he keeps. Sheffield, Bagwell and Thomas should all get in. If that happens then Chipper should too.

[terrierbob]

He should be able to get 410-425 HRs.

[blur2005]

Aside from the question of how many homers he'll hit, I think it'd be a ridiculous shame for Chipper to not make the Hall....for reasons other than he's always been my favorite player on my favorite team.

He has an adjusted .317 EqA (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=61), which, besides VORP, is pretty much the best method of determining just how good a player is. It's a better tool over time, too. To give you a comparison, Mickey Mantle had a .340, which is insanely good. To compare to some HOFers mentioned in an earlier post, Duke Snider had a .309, Reggie Jackson - .305, Mike Schmidt - .313, and Billy Williams - .300 (may not have deserved to get in). Gary Sheffield actually has a .318. Considering the nature of Chipper being the most successful switch-hitter aside from Mantle, and one who has a career OPS of .949, I'm pretty damn confident he deserves a place in the Hall.

If he plays as well this year as last, his numbers will only get a little better. I know he's getting old but last year was one of his best season's in the league, possibly his best since his MVP season. He managed to have over a 1.000 OPS at the age of 35.

I probably just offended a lot of people with my non-use of batting average but that is not the truest measure of a good hitter. Mantle could've hit .298 for me any day of the week, especially the year where he had a .512 OPB. Jesus.

[DinoDex200]

Since when is a 3B/LF not an offensive position?

He played LF for maybe 1.5 years, and they were actually his least productive years.

If you look at the list of top hitters of all time, most of them aren't 3B. I think at one point, he had the record for most consecutive seasons with 100 RBIs at 3B.

Probably not a first ballot guy, but he'll get in.

[nwFL Griz]

I can't disagree more. I'm about 75% that he's a first ballot HOF'er. He is without a doubt in, it's just a matter of when not if.

[Ivytalk]

He's in, regardless. If he didn't play one more game...the best player on one of the best teams of his era, one of the top 3 switch hitters of all time, and offensively productive from a position not known for big numbers.

In the interest of full disclosure - I am a Braves fan. :)

I agree, even though I've booed him lustily for years.:p

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a Phillies fan.

Q: What's Bobby Cox's favorite garment?
A: The "wifebeater"!:p

[JoltinJoe]

The comparison to Mantle's lifetime BA overlooks that Mantle played during an era of much lower BAs. Chipper Jones is no Mickey Mantle.

That being said, I've got no problem with Chipper Jones making the HOF.

[blur2005]

The comparison to Mantle's lifetime BA overlooks that Mantle played during an era of much lower BAs
...which is why we have statistics like EqA to compare them. Mantle = .340, Chipper = .317 (the nice thing about EqA is that it's designed to work out similar to a batting average, though it is infinitely better at statistically evaluating a player's worth).

I'll agree, Chipper isn't Mantle.

[DinoDex200]

I agree, even though I've booed him lustily for years.:p

In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a Phillies fan.

Q: What's Bobby Cox's favorite garment?
A: The "wifebeater"!:p

I thought that was Brett Myers garment of choice! xlolx

[mcveyrl]

...which is why we have statistics like EqA to compare them. Mantle = .340, Chipper = .317 (the nice thing about EqA is that it's designed to work out similar to a batting average, though it is infinitely better at statistically evaluating a player's worth).

I'll agree, Chipper isn't Mantle.

How so?

BTW, my wife's family is from Torrevieja on the east coast of Spain (near Alicante). My two year-old son's been twice, I've never been. (stupid work) xbawlingx xbawlingx Pictures look nice, though. Enjoy your time over there!

[blur2005]

How so?

BTW, my wife's family is from Torrevieja on the east coast of Spain (near Alicante). My two year-old son's been twice, I've never been. (stupid work) xbawlingx xbawlingx Pictures look nice, though. Enjoy your time over there!
I kind of want to make a trek down to Alicante.

Batting average isn't bad or anything but, obviously, the number one task of the hitter is to get on base. So a guy with a .330 batting average but a .321 on base percentage is actually getting out a lot. A lot of lead-off guys have this problem. The best example is Juan Pierre, who hit .293 last season (not bad by traditional standards) but had an OBP of .331, which, for a guy "setting the table," is not good at all. Ichiro had a .396 btw, which was the highest OBP of any typical lead-off guy because baseball thinks it's best to have a lead-off guy who is fast above all else (which makes no sense when he can't get on base). Sure, Pierre stole 64 bases but that doesn't matter much when he makes so many outs (668 at bats(!!) and only 33 walks).

For EqA, it's the best stat because it takes into account major stats like hits, total bases, walks, sacrifices, and stolen bases in its formula and is adjusted for the variety of fields by adjusting for park factors and era factors (like the dead-ball era). This link (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=61) has the formula. Pierre, by the way, has a career .258 EqA, which is 2 points below that of an average player. The formula is adjusted to make .260 the league average every year.

Sabermetrics have reawakened my passion for the game.

Part of this renewed interest comes from Fire Joe Morgan, the greatest baseball (sports, even) blog on the internet. Takes bad sports journalism to task. Here's (http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2007/05/lets-play-how-much-is-this-wrong.html) an assault on a piece glorifying Juan Pierre last May (Gary Matthews, Jr. as well).

[Go...gate]

He should be in. IMO, one of the most underrated players of his time.

[Eyes of Old Main]

I think Chipper is borderline right now, but probably in. It would probably be more of a slam dunk if he'd not folded down the stretch last year and finished second for the batting title, but his numbers are solid. Don't forget his string of 100 RBI seasons which I think is a record. My guess is that he plays another 2-3 years and accumulates enough numbers to get in. I'm a Braves fan, so maybe I'm a little biased, but since I do not think my childhood hero Dale Murphy belongs in, I can't be that biased.

[Gil Dobie]

FWIW here are the 10 players (http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=jonesch06:Chipper+Jones&st=age&compage=35&age=35) he is most similiar to according to Baseball Reference:
- *Gary Sheffield
- Duke Snider (HOF)
- Jeff Bagwell
- Frank Thomas
- Billy Williams (HOF)
- Mike Schmidt (HOF)
- *Rafeal Palmeiro
- Bernie Williams
- Reggie Jackson (HOF)
- Fred McGriff

Look at the company he keeps. Sheffield, Bagwell and Thomas should all get in. If that happens then Chipper should too.

*Steroid Aided Stats xsmhx

[dbackjon]

Chipper is over-rated. Borderline HOF if he plays a few more years.

First round - not even close.

[terrierbob]

Chipper is over-rated. Borderline HOF if he plays a few more years.

First round - not even close.

How is he overated?

[citdog]

Chipper is over-rated. Borderline HOF if he plays a few more years.

First round - not even close.


YOU'RE A FOOL.

[Gil Dobie]

I think Chipper gets in, probably not the first year, but like Gossage, a few years after he is eligible. I'd compare him to Al Kaline.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Wow, i am starting to get old. I remember when Chipper made a splash with the Braves in the mid 90's. Hard to believe he's 36. I do believe he will get into the HOF. He's been one of the most consistant players at his position and been the positional face of one of the most successful franchises in the last 20 years. I have a few of rookie cards so hopefully he can squeak in first ballot.