Could 8/30/08 be black Saturday for FBS?

[Grabholdofyosef]

After reading through the "new schedule updates" post by UNHWildCats (thanks for the great data), I noticed a lot of FCS vs FBS matchups on the opening weekend. I assume there are more than ever because of the addition of the 12th game.

With so much data, I may have some errors, so please post corrections if you see them.

I counted 35 FCS vs FBS games for 8/30. This got me thinking about how many FCS teams could win and how many it would take to get national media attention or could one win like ASU over Michigan happen to get the nation looking our way again.

8 of the FCS playoffs team from 2007 play and several others who are coming off strong seasons. 21 teams from the BCS conferences are playing and 4 or 5 teams that will most likely be in the top 10 (WVU, Ohio st, LSU, OK, and UGA). I think if any of these 5 teams lose it would cause a stir like ASU mich.

Among the teams i know a decent amount about (basically east coast) I think JMU over DUKE is the most likely to happen.

Which upset is most likely to happen?

The 2007 fcs playoff teams and BCS conference teams are in all caps.

cal poly @ sand diego st
s utah @ airforce
uc davis @ sjsu
scst @ central fla
EASTERN ILL @ central mich
E KY @ CINCINNATi
jack st @ G TECH
ten tech@ LOUSIVILLE
E WASH @ TEXAS TECH
idaho st @ boise st
n arizona @ ARIZ ST
n colorado @ PURDUE
coastal car @ PENN ST
DELAWARE @ MARYLAND
hofstra @ UCONN
JMU @ DUKE
maine @ IOWA
neastern @ ball st
towson @ navy
nova @ WVU*
ill st @ marshall
ind st @ e mich
N IOWA @ byu
south dakota st @ IOWA ST
w ill @ ARK
youngstown st @ OHIO ST*
tenn martin @ SOUTH FLA
APPALACHIAN ST @ LSU*
chatt @ OKLAHOMA*
georgia southern @ UGA*
mcneese st @ UNC
se la @ louisiana tech
charleston southern @ MIAMI
grambling st @ nevada
southern @ houston

[Tribe4SF]

Missing some, including...

w&m @ NC STATE
RICHMOND @ VIRGINIA
furman @ VA TECH

Sorry. Not on 8/30.

[Grabholdofyosef]

Missing some, including...

w&m @ NC STATE
RICHMOND @ VIRGINIA
furman @ VA TECH

Sorry. Not on 8/30.
I was only looking at the ones on 8/30. I think those you mentioned are in week two.

[BDK@YSU]

While I would like to say YSU over OSU, ASU over LSU has that novelty of defending champs going head to head, and that's why I picked that game.

[Tribe4SF]

LOUISVILLE should be in caps.

[slycat]

i would have to think chatty over ou. this is the biggest upset because chatty is a lower tier fcs team and ou is a fbs powerhouse.

im sure the app st game would be huge too since its champs vs champs an dapp did it last year but now some people might predict the upset.

[Grabholdofyosef]

LOUISVILLE should be in caps.
thx. I fixed LOUIS and G TECH. I had both those marked on my sheet but I guess my eyes got crossed.

[Hoyadestroya85]

I think our game is the biggest discrepancy.. because i fully expect WVU to be just as good next year

[AZGrizFan]

The easy answer is ASU/LSU. However, I chose YSU/OSU for two reasons: If ASU beats LSU, after last years shock against Michigan I'm not sure people would see it as such a huge upset. And with the way OSU rolled YSU last year, I think this one would cause much bigger shock waves in the FBS world...Although, GSU/GA would be on about an equivalent scale...

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Sorry to say this, but I am going to have to go with GSU-Georgia. Georgia will most likely be the preseason 1 or 2 in pretty much every major poll or ranking in the media. On top of that, we (GSU) will probably not have all of our crap together by next year.xnonono2x LSU will probably not be as good as UGA and GSU not quite as good as ASU, so it would be a bigger upset.

On the other hand, if ASU were to beat LSU, they might get more for the fact that they have two big FBS wins in a row more so than the fact that they just beat LSU.

[Syntax Error]

Sorry to say this, but I am going to have to go with GSU-Georgia. Georgia will most likely be the preseason 1 or 2 in pretty much every major poll or ranking in the media. On top of that, we (GSU) will probably not have all of our crap together by next year.xnonono2x LSU will probably not be as good as UGA and GSU not quite as good as ASU, so it would be a bigger upset.

On the other hand, if ASU were to beat LSU, they might get more for the fact that they have two big FBS wins in a row more so than the fact that they just beat LSU.All of those would be stunners. If UGA is #1 then the Georgia Southern win would be the biggest in FCS history. Youngstown State beating OSU would shake the BCS world and Ohio football would change forever. App beating the defending BCS champ... ooh la la how sweet that would be!!!!!!! xthumbsupx

[dbackjon]

NAU over Arizona State would be a huge upset as well.

[Eyes of Old Main]

All would be big wins that would garner some attention, but if App goes 2-for-2 then that would be the biggest media-wise, though it might not be the biggest talent-wise.

[Cap'n Cat]

Youngstown hands down. They beat OSU and follow with a loss to Vermot Polytechnic.

[HiHiYikas]

It's hard to choose any of these without slighting the others. I hope they all happen so we can judge for ourselves.

[ButlerGSU]

With UGA being the most likely preseason #1, I don't see how them losing to a very, very young GSU team would not be the biggest upset.

[AppGrad06]

I chose GSU vs. UGA. While ASU/LSU will be getting a lot of media attention regardless, I think an ASU win would not be seen as as big of an upset. And with UGA likely to be the pre-season #1 the press would be all over it. though sorry GSU if you win the media win most likely say you pulled an AppState.

[Mountaineer]

I voted GSU vs. Georgia too. xthumbsupx Not gonna happen, but it'd be huge. xnodx

[bobbythekidd]

I chose GSU vs. UGA. While ASU/LSU will be getting a lot of media attention regardless, I think an ASU win would not be seen as as big of an upset. And with UGA likely to be the pre-season #1 the press would be all over it. though sorry GSU if you win the media win most likely say you pulled an AppState.
What he said.

GSU beating 2008 UGA would be a bigger upset but, "pulling an App State" is forged as the term for an FCS team beating a top 25 team FBS team forever more.

An App victory would get more press attention than 2 or 3 of the others combined.

[JohnStOnge]

Below is my take on the ranking of possible FCS wins from most likely to least likely. Not a lot of good matchups for FCS chances. The weaker FBS teams are generally playing weaker FCS teams. Like Eastern Michigan is a really bad FBS but they're playing a really bad FCS in Indiana State.

JMU over Duke
UC Davis over San Jose State
Illinois State over Marshall
Northeastern over Ball State
South Dakota State over Iowa State
Delaware over Maryland
McNeese State over North Carolina
Northern Iowa over Brigham Young
Cal Poly over San Diego State
Hofstra over Connecticut
Grambling over Nevada
Eastern Illinois over Central Michigan
Maine over Iowa
Southeastern Louisiana over Louisiana Tech
Appalachian State over LSU
Towson over Navy
Southern over Houston
Eastern Washington over Texas Tech
Western Illinois over Arkansas
Northern Arizona over Arizona State
South Carolina State over Central Florida
Youngstown State over Ohio State
Georgia Southern over Georgia
Eastern Kentucky over Cincinnatti
Villanova over West Virginia
Jacksonville State over Georgia Tech
Charlston Southern over Miami
Indiana State over Eastern Michigan
Southern Utah over Air Force
Idaho State over Boise State
Tennessee Chattanooga over Oklahoma
Tennessee Martin over South Florida
Tennessee Tech over Louisville
Northern Colorado over Penn State

[Mountaineer]

Here's my take on the ranking of possible FCS wins from most likely to least likely:

Northern Colorado over Penn State

That should be Coastal Carolina. xlolx

[JohnStOnge]

That should be Coastal Carolina. xlolx

Drat. When I was writing them down I skipped somehow combined N. Colorado/Purdue with Coastl Carolina/Penn State. I'll re do it.

[JohnStOnge]

Most to least likely FCS wins corrected. Hopefully:

JMU over Duke
UC Davis over San Jose State
Illinois State over Marshall
Northeastern over Ball State
Cal Poly over San Diego State
South Dakota State over Iowa State
Delaware over Maryland
McNeese State over North Carolina
Northern Iowa over Brigham Young
Hofstra over Connecticut
Grambling over Nevada
Eastern Illinois over Central Michigan
Maine over Iowa
Southeastern Louisiana over Louisiana Tech
Appalachian State over LSU
Towson over Navy
Southern over Houston
Eastern Washington over Texas Tech
Western Illinois over Arkansas
Northern Arizona over Arizona State
South Carolina State over Central Florida
Youngstown State over Ohio State
Georgia Southern over Georgia
Eastern Kentucky over Cincinnatti
Villanova over West Virginia
Jacksonville State over Georgia Tech
Charleston Southern over Miami
Indiana State over Eastern Michigan
Southern Utah over Air Force
Idaho State over Boise State
Northern Colorado over Purdue
Coastal Carolina over Penn State
Tennessee Chattanooga over Oklahoma
Tennessee Martin over South Florida
Tennessee Tech over Louisville

[Seawolf97]

I think our game is the biggest discrepancy.. because i fully expect WVU to be just as good next year

I went with this game-Big East power losing to a rising power in the CAA. Actually anyone of those games would get media attention if the FBS team were to lose. But in the Northeast Nova over West Virginia would be a biggy.xnodx

[Death Dealer]

I picked GSU/UGA. First, there is the traditional animosity the Eagles have towards the Dawgs, and the traditional disdain the Dawgs have for the Eagles. Second, UGA is coming into this year feeling slighted and that they missed out on a shot at the NC. They are looking to make a statement early, sorta like last yeas Michigan team. Third, GSU's diametrically opposed two last seasons, and it only being Hatch's second season as coach.

There'd be no living with them!

Of course, I think FU over Va Tech would be a bigger deal. Small private FCS over Big ACC powerhouse. About as likely as GSU over UGA, but it could happen. xnodx xrulesx

[ngineer]

I voted for Chattanooga only because I think that would be the biggest upset. Of course, ASU knocking off LSU would get a lot of attention because of what the Mountaineers did last year.

[GeauxLions94]

se la @ louisiana tech


Game is being moved to Sept. 20. Tech is opening Aug. 30 against Mississippi State

[Lionsrking]

Game is being moved to Sept. 20. Tech is opening Aug. 30 against Mississippi State

We have the privilege of playing the "CORN" in Lorman on the 8-30. Or did they double book?

[andy7171]

I voted for ASU ove LSU, but would love to see Herbstreet's face should a YSU upset tOSU.

BTW, Towson plays @ Navy on 8/30.

[Grabholdofyosef]

Most to least likely FCS wins corrected. Hopefully:

JMU over Duke
UC Davis over San Jose State
Illinois State over Marshall
Northeastern over Ball State
Cal Poly over San Diego State
South Dakota State over Iowa State
Delaware over Maryland
McNeese State over North Carolina
Northern Iowa over Brigham Young
Hofstra over Connecticut
Grambling over Nevada
Eastern Illinois over Central Michigan
Maine over Iowa
Southeastern Louisiana over Louisiana Tech
Appalachian State over LSU
Towson over Navy
Southern over Houston
Eastern Washington over Texas Tech
Western Illinois over Arkansas
Northern Arizona over Arizona State
South Carolina State over Central Florida
Youngstown State over Ohio State
Georgia Southern over Georgia
Eastern Kentucky over Cincinnatti
Villanova over West Virginia
Jacksonville State over Georgia Tech
Charleston Southern over Miami
Indiana State over Eastern Michigan
Southern Utah over Air Force
Idaho State over Boise State
Northern Colorado over Purdue
Coastal Carolina over Penn State
Tennessee Chattanooga over Oklahoma
Tennessee Martin over South Florida
Tennessee Tech over Louisville
Your projections have it looking like the ACC could really take a hit. 3 teams could fall on the same day to FCS teams, ouch!!!

[UDBlueLotFan]

08/30: UD @ Maryland? xeyebrowx xrulesx

[Grabholdofyosef]

08/30: UD @ Maryland? xeyebrowx xrulesx
That one is listed. Not sure what you meant.

[appstate38]

Looking at the schedule on the First weekend, My question is how many points will JMU be favored by against Duke. If Duke is favored, it will only be by 3 points at the most and only because they are FBS. JMU should drag them up and down the field IMO.

[AAadict]

CAA on 8/30. Delaware beats Maryland where Terps go in as a 9-10 pt favorite at home. JMU will punish Duke and I'm gonna guess a 4-6 pt home favorite line. 'Nova is way in over their head. Credit for the schedule and sure this will help them later in CAA games. WVU favored by 24 but will not cover.
Bonus: Navy over Towson by double digits. I am always glad that Hens get to play Navy the week before Notre Dame. Hard not to look ahead.

[Block-A]

Since the question is, "which causes the most media attention," I had to say App over LSU. I think UTC over Ok and/or 'Nova over WVU would be the bigger upset. And, I'd love to see GSU shut up a bunch of UGa fans....

[JDC325]

Biggest win GSU over UGA
(Instate and UGA should be pre season one or two)

Most media attention App over LSU hands down.
(NCAA NC vs. BCS NC, plus I think they had a big win last year over some weak yankee team in the FBS)

[ASU]

Biggest win GSU over UGA
(Instate and UGA should be pre season one or two)

Most media attention App over LSU hands down.
(NCAA NC vs. BCS NC, plus I think they had a big win last year over some weak yankee team in the FBS)

If all the FCS teams won.....the BCS schools would change the rules....they would probably have 200 scholarships with us having 30 max. I have never been around a sport that is more rigged than what the BCS schools do to football. They want all the TV money.....and want to ensure that they hardly ever lose. Has a tendency to give other categories an inferiority complex....just because the BCS schools can have many more scholarships.

[lizrdgizrd]

I think the biggest upset would be GSU over UGA, but I think there'd be more coverage of ASU over LSU in the media since it's the whole champ vs champ plus ASU been there done that. Not to mention it'd also let them push for the playoffs in FBS since the playoff champ beat the BCS champ.

I'd also love to see Herbie's face if YSU beat OSU. xlmaox

[gmoney55]

I went with GSU-Georgia, because the Dogs are probably going to have the highest preseson ranking of all of those teams, and GSU doesn't have the name recogniton (right now, among FBS fans) as App. State.

[I-AA Fan]

Reality:

OSU is the preseason #1, and the hands-on favorite to go back to the title game again.Tressel came from YSU. Heacock is his hand-chosen assistant & successor. A YSU upset would be the schocker of all, unless OSU plays as badly as Michigan did last year. Now, why don't we have another ASU vs LSU thread, I think there is about 10 of them now. Sorry to be so negative, but it makes for quite the boring board.

Reality #2:

With Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, and the SEC championship game; let's just say that App State is not their biggest worry right now. Talk to them the Tuesday before the game & they will be more worried.

[I-AA Fan]

I went with GSU-Georgia, because the Dogs are probably going to have the highest preseson ranking of all of those teams, and GSU doesn't have the name recogniton (right now, among FBS fans) as App. State.

I would strongly disagree. I would say with Marshall and Boise State out of I-AA ...GSU has the strongest name recognition among the general college football public, when compared to other I-AA/FCS clubs. Less the Ivy League of course.

[ERASU2113]

It was easy to pick ASU/LSU, just due to the NC issue.

However, I would rather see YSU/OSU or GSU/Georgia. Just for the simple fact that by ASU beating LSU...people will not be that impressed due to Michigan. I would rather see another FCS team do it just so it will shine more light on the FCS. Not just Appalachian.

[andy7171]

CAA on 8/30. Delaware beats Maryland where Terps go in as a 9-10 pt favorite at home. JMU will punish Duke and I'm gonna guess a 4-6 pt home favorite line. 'Nova is way in over their head. Credit for the schedule and sure this will help them later in CAA games. WVU favored by 24 but will not cover.
Bonus: Navy over Towson by double digits. I am always glad that Hens get to play Navy the week before Notre Dame. Hard not to look ahead.

I know what one of those A's stands for.

[89Hen]

While I would like to say YSU over OSU, ASU over LSU has that novelty of defending champs going head to head, and that's why I picked that game.
I think those are 1 and 2. Early projections have OSU possibly returning to the NC game and while ASU doing it two years in a row would be amazing, so would an in-state team beating another B10 team for the second year in a row. After the way the OSU fans celebrated the ASU win over UM, it would be funny to see it happen to them.

[mcveyrl]

I think those are 1 and 2. Early projections have OSU possibly returning to the NC game and while ASU doing it two years in a row would be amazing, so would an in-state team beating another B10 team for the second year in a row. After the way the OSU fans celebrated the ASU win over UM, it would be funny to see it happen to them.

I hadn't thought about that. That would be GREAT!!!

[andy7171]

Would Michigan fans all raid the Youngstown State school store for Penguin gear?

[AppStFan76]

Would Michigan fans all raid the Youngstown State school store for Penguin gear?

YES!!xlolx xlolx

[JohnStOnge]

I think those are 1 and 2. Early projections have OSU possibly returning to the NC game .

When OSU was prepping to play LSU in the BCS championship game, I heard a lot about how it was a young team that was expected to be an also ran in its conference. But I didn't really have an appreciation for where they were until I looked up anticipated draft choices at NFLDraftScout.com. That site has only 2 Buckeyes going in this year's draft.

But it projects 11 Ohio State players being drafted NEXT year...possibly four in the first round.

I suspect that Youngstown State's going to be facing a notably better team in 2008 Ohio State than Appalachian State faced in 2007 Michigan. Not that Michigan wasn't good. It was a legitimate top 20 FBS team. But it's looking like, while Michigan was polling as a top 5 team at the start of 2007 but really wasn't, Ohio State might really be that next season.

[Yosef92]

Voted for ASU vs LSU. In a normal year, it's a huge mountain to climb but maybe not the "Biggest upset" of that week. But coming off UM last year... doing it 2 years in a row, would be unbelievable.

So, combining the 2 years, I would say that upsetting UM & LSU in back to back years would be the biggest upset. That and I like voting for App!