2024 Playoffs Round 2: #12 Illinois State @ #5 UC Davis

[Professor Chaos]

Game kicks off at 1PM PT on Saturday 12/7 and will be streamed on ESPN+.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54177296433_6f5d6388e2_o.jpg

[Russ B]

Should be a nice clear Fall day (high 50s/low 60s) in Davis; long-term forecast says we're in for a dry spell for the next week or two.

[JacksFan40]

Illinois State did a great job forcing turnovers but boy was their offense awful in the 2nd half. Doubt UC Davis will implode offensively like SEMO did, so Illinois State needs to figure out how to do something offensively if they want to win. I’d also imagine Miles Hastings won’t be asked to throw 85 times like SEMOs QB did, so the Redbirds will actually have to respect the run.

[SeattleCat]

This could be an interesting matchup, does ISU have the horses to stop Larison?

[cmt]

Don't totally know what to make of Illinois St. Before today, the only three good teams they played beat them by a combined score of 123-17. And it definitely not a good look to be +7 in the turnover margin and only win by 8.

Hastings only threw 8 picks this year and 3 of those were in the first game against Cal. Obviously anything can happen (in another thread someone mentioned SDST's 10 turnover game in the 2017 semifinals) but I'd bet against Hastings throwing even 3 picks in this game. Take out the Cal game and that's 13 turnovers in 11 FCS games this year.

My gut says as long as UCD doesn't turn the ball over, they should win the game relatively comfortably.

[The Cats]

UC Davis

[POD Knows]

Davis wipes the field with them. ISUr is not a good defensive team and very inconsistent on offense.

[ming01]

UCD by 7-10.

[caribbeanhen]

This could be an interesting matchup, does ISU have the horses to stop Larison?

No

[CA Forever]

Go Ags!

[caribbeanhen]

Davis wipes the field with them. ISUr is not a good defensive team and very inconsistent on offense.

so without saying New Hampshire or N Arizona, tell us if SEMO even belonged in the playoffs

[POD Knows]

so without saying New Hampshire or N Arizona, tell us if SEMO even belonged in the playoffs
What, SEMO should have won that game yesterday. If they played the Redbirds 10 times, they probably win 7. NH with a seed was a disgrace. I had them in the 20s in my poll that was generous. NAU was awful, they made a very bad defense look like the 70s Steel Curtain. There is a lot of fluff outside the top 7 or 8 teams in the FCS right now.

[caribbeanhen]

What, SEMO should have won that game yesterday. If they played the Redbirds 10 times, they probably win 7. NH with a seed was a disgrace. I had them in the 20s in my poll that was generous. NAU was awful, they made a very bad defense look like the 70s Steel Curtain. There is a lot of fluff outside the top 7 or 8 teams in the FCS right now.

nope.... heard that song and dance too many times about ole Seymoo

- - - Updated - - -


What, SEMO should have won that game yesterday. If they played the Redbirds 10 times, they probably win 7. NH with a seed was a disgrace. I had them in the 20s in my poll that was generous. NAU was awful, they made a very bad defense look like the 70s Steel Curtain. There is a lot of fluff outside the top 7 or 8 teams in the FCS right now.

this is balls on

[Redbird 4th & short]

Very strange win for sure. Couple general observations:

1. OVC teams had a good day yesterday. Tenn Martin won big over seeded UNH. Tenn St gave Montana all they could handle .. needed 2 PR TDs to won by 14. Even former OVC EKU had a chance to beat Villanova .. robbed of a strip sack TD in a very questionable call where reference refused to explain the over rule. Then SEMO gave us all we could handle in a very odd game. That and MVFC depth is highly questionable this year after our top 3.

2. We've been an inconsistent team for sure .. offense is potent and dynamic, but just not consistent in run game. Defense breaks down too often, but very good and explosive at times. Last week, we shut down UND who just lit up USD defense the week before. We're also very good in red zone for most part, and usually pretty good on 3rd Down.. just not 2nd half yesterday.

3. Spack is notoriously conservative with a lead. Game was even statistically at half and leading 28-7. Our QB Rittenhouse lit them up for 233 yards. Defense was solid and started forcing TOs. Not saying we shut it down after half, but Spack just wants to win .. he doesn't care about stats or style points. And they just lit us up the 2nd half .. we were playing not to lose. But we still managed 8 TOs to our 1 to win the game. Then still led by 21 after Q3 .. prevent was full on. They got 200 more yds in Q4 .. all mojo lost by then, but still hung on to win on road.

4. We've been playing like this all year .. very good at times, and very ugly at others. We had a lot of key injuries first half of season. All 4 AAs were hit, 2 for season, plus bunch of all MVFCs, plus other starters. But now as healthy as weve been, less 4 starters. Yet 6-0 on road in FCS. We are inconsistent but opportunistic and capable at times.

5. Lastly, their QB had a 116 college QBR or 55.82 NFL QBR. So while we sucked the 2nd half playing conservatively, we were still covering and making plays. Some felt we got held a lot, limiting us to 3 sacks .. debatable for sure.

We likely lost another RB, so now down to our 3rd RB .. a true FR #25, plus RB4 transfer from WIU. Likely going to be throwing a lot more against you guys. But Lawson has much better quicks than Wright .. but a true FR.

That said ... we don't have any margin for error against UCD. I've had you guys in my top 6 teams we didn't want to play until qtrs. Not feeling optimistic at all, but I don't rule out us playing up to your level for a while.

Gotto think you guys are 10 to 14 pt favorites. We shall see which ISUr team shows up. But we know how good you guys are on both sides of ball, run and pass. Again, not optimistic.

[Chalupa Batman]

so without saying New Hampshire or N Arizona, tell us if SEMO even belonged in the playoffs

They were the autobid for the OVC so you can't exactly replace them with someone else. And yes they deserved to be in the bracket

[ST_Lawson]

They were the autobid for the OVC so you can't exactly replace them with someone else. And yes they deserved to be in the bracket

Yup, you could make an argument that UT Martin or TN State didn't deserve to get at-large spots, but SEMO was the automatic qualifier. If we're going to stick with one of the best parts of the FCS (every team in a playoff-participating conference has a route to the championship), then we gotta keep the auto bids.

I do think that UT Martin deserved to be in it: they did well in their first-round game and had 8 DI wins, including one over an FBS (technically...it's Kennesaw State). And OOC they played all full-scholarship FCS or FBS teams (K-State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Kennesaw State).

Tennessee State did...whatever that was...against Montana, but they did have 9 DI wins, although SOS was weaker than UT Martin. And they did beat conference champ SEMO.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Illinois State did a great job forcing turnovers but boy was their offense awful in the 2nd half. Doubt UC Davis will implode offensively like SEMO did, so Illinois State needs to figure out how to do something offensively if they want to win. I’d also imagine Miles Hastings won’t be asked to throw 85 times like SEMOs QB did, so the Redbirds will actually have to respect the run.

deleted my original response .. forgot completely about earlier post I did.

But you make all fair points. If we play UCD 5 times:



1 of 5 ... we might win once if Spack and coordinators put together a good game plan and players execute it and play inspired. Spack knows how to prepare and play up to higher levels .. though does not always succeed. It's usually against programs/coaches he knows well.
1 of 5 .. we might compete and make it a game well into 4th qtr, even if they expand lead late.
3 of 5 .. we would likely lose by 3 or more TDs


I'm pleasantly surprised we have 8 of 31 votes so far. As to question of whether we have the horses .. we do. The real question is whether we can play more consistently for 2 halves. But no, this is not a game we can reasonably expect to win.

Again, Spack has impressed and over achieved in big games before. We've also imploded in games like this. UCD looks legit in all phases. I give us a 20 to 40% chance of competing per above.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yup, you could make an argument that UT Martin or TN State didn't deserve to get at-large spots, but SEMO was the automatic qualifier. If we're going to stick with one of the best parts of the FCS (every team in a playoff-participating conference has a route to the championship), then we gotta keep the auto bids.

I do think that UT Martin deserved to be in it: they did well in their first-round game and had 8 DI wins, including one over an FBS (technically...it's Kennesaw State). And OOC they played all full-scholarship FCS or FBS teams (K-State, North Alabama, Missouri State, Kennesaw State).

Tennessee State did...whatever that was...against Montana, but they did have 9 DI wins, although SOS was weaker than UT Martin. And they did beat conference champ SEMO.

I feel like OVC may be the most improved conference in this years playoff. Look at what each team did with seeded teams.

[dbackjon]

UC-Davis

[CopperCat]

This could be an interesting matchup, does ISU have the horses to stop Larison?

This is ISU’s key to the game. And I think the answer is an emphatic no. Nobody can stop him, and I don’t think ISU contains him either. He’ll be north of 150 yards total offense in this game.

[caribbeanhen]

This could be an interesting matchup, does ISU have the horses to stop Larison?

interesting player that also catches the ball out of the backfield

Let’s see how he does against a MVFC team that is not from the Big Sky. Illinois St is not one of the Dakotas, but I still think it’ll be an interesting matchup with Davis winning by a TD

[Paladin1aa]

UCD is the pick.

[ST_Lawson]

I feel like OVC may be the most improved conference in this years playoff. Look at what each team did with seeded teams.

Yup, going into the season, I was fully expecting our new conference to only get one (the autobid)...maybe two teams in...but to get three and have them all compete fairly well is impressive. There were obviously a couple of sloppy games, but both losses were within one score with under two minutes left in the game, and the other was a blowout win for the OVC.

As for this game...ISU at UC Davis. I did vote for Davis, but I don't think they'll steamroll ISU or anything. My guess is that it will be the Aggies by a TD.

[ming01]

Hard to pick against UCD, but I think ISU hangs around and nearly wins.

[bonarae]

Q: how many points will be the margin for the winning team?

Outside of Larison, UCD has more diverse receiving options (Winston Williams - all-Big-Sky 1st Team, Trent Tompkins - a former QB, Samuel Gbatu Jr.) than rushing options (Jordan Fisher - possible heir of Larison next season, Matteo Perez).

[Redbird 4th & short]

This is ISU’s key to the game. And I think the answer is an emphatic no. Nobody can stop him, and I don’t think ISU contains him either. He’ll be north of 150 yards total offense in this game.

Spack defenses usually have the athletes and are very gap sound .. except for this years team. We look like world beaters at times, then suddenly there are gaping holes .. way too inconsistent for a Spack team. We have big hitters and playmakers in our secondary. But maybe not enough athleticism in our LBer crew for the likes of Larison, especially leading in rushing and receiving. That's very unusual combo you rarely see. We finally got AA Abdullah back at LB around 5 weeks ago .. great athlete and playmaker at 225 lbs. But he's our Edge rusher, and was really good at that before his injury against Iowa. Not sure he would make a good spy or not. LB Niekamp is very good, but playing injured (cast on hand, and some other undisclosed injury that slows him some) .. he still makes a lot tackles and big plays, but limited in open space. We are usually pretty good in red zone, but give up too many yards in general.

In short, his stat line is very impressive and unusual ... so it will be very interesting to see what we do to spy/contain him. I noted Cal and Idaho found a way to stop him. But all the best players have off days. Spack is sometimes pretty good about figuring out how to stop a single stud player. But again, his rushing and pass catching stats are too unusually good. Hard to imagine even containing him.

The biggest unknown is overall physicality ... frankly, that's our best hope. That and Spack needs to commit to playing this game aggressively on offense and defense ... playing it safe to avoid a blowout will only ensure one thing ... a slower blow out. I worry he plays it safe, like NDSU game .. we were down 14-7 at half ... final was 42-10. UCD is also too good to do that against.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yup, going into the season, I was fully expecting our new conference to only get one (the autobid)...maybe two teams in...but to get three and have them all compete fairly well is impressive. There were obviously a couple of sloppy games, but both losses were within one score with under two minutes left in the game, and the other was a blowout win for the OVC.

As for this game...ISU at UC Davis. I did vote for Davis, but I don't think they'll steamroll ISU or anything. My guess is that it will be the Aggies by a TD.

Smart bet there.

But I can see anything from a 3 pt win to 21+ pt loss. They do too much well. Our only hope is a reasonably aggressive game plan and that our physicality is better than they are used to .. need them reacting to us and on their heels some. Otherwise .. eh, going to be a long day.

[caribbeanhen]

Smart bet there.

But I can see anything from a 3 pt win to 21+ pt loss. They do too much well. Our only hope is a reasonably aggressive game plan and that our physicality is better than they are used to .. need them reacting to us and on their heels some. Otherwise .. eh, going to be a long day.

I picked UC Davis to win in the elimination game and said it was a risky choice. They just have some star power at QB and RB and that's why I went with Davis. I do see the athletic nature of your Defense, and you have a good WR but I'm just not seeing your QB as a star type, he throws and accurate pass but seems like a step slow and injury prone.... I say all this based on a few quarters so I don't know a thing really

[Redbird 4th & short]

I picked UC Davis to win in the elimination game and said it was a risky choice. They just have some star power at QB and RB and that's why I went with Davis. I do see the athletic nature of your Defense, and you have a good WR but I'm just not seeing your QB as a star type, he throws and accurate pass but seems like a step slow and injury prone.... I say all this based on a few quarters so I don't know a thing really

QB Rittenhouse isn't injury prone - he's just a gutty kid who doesn't play it safe too often .. so no issues there. Hard to say what happened in 2nd half of last weeks game because we just never know what Spack will do with a lead in 2nd half. But we led by 21 for nearly 2 qtrs, until they scored 2 late TDs. But Rittenhouse can spin it and can run with it. He might be banged up, because he hasn't been running as much the last month or so like he used to. But ISUr is 2nd in MVFC with 233 pass ypg. And Rittenhouse has been on nice streak the last 6 games ... 255 ypg, avg-ing 22 of 33 for 70% comp rate and 150 QBR. The first 7 games he was throwing maybe 21 passes per game ... so he's upped his pass count by 50% for more yards, and has stronger QBR.

Btw, SEMO QB had a 118 QBR on those 85 passes last week ... our pass defense did well for the aerial attack they endured dropping back in cover 85 times ... thats 2+ games worth in one game. I think UCD throws over 35 passes per game ... that will be a relief for our secondary.

And this is game that Spack should be willing to play it more aggressively, since we're underdogs. Plus it will be warmer, which always helps the energy level, and hits and ground don't hurt as much. And their run defense looks stout up the middle. So we will have to throw it more than usual .. and the weather will help on that front. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rittenhouse throw 40+ passes for first time.

Btw, we've got 3 productive WRs .. Sobkowicz, Loyd, and Kasper. They are 2nd, 5th, and 10th in catches per game per MVFC. But Kasper has only played 9 games, so he should actually be 8th place at 4.55 per game. So we actually have 3 WRs in top 8 of MVFC in catches per game. But Sobkowicz and Loyd are both very good, and Kasper is great role player and can help a lot underneath playing the slot .. still getting better. I think their DBs are smallish, so we'll see how well they cover and tackle.

Anyway, we've been too inconsistent most of the season. They've also got 4 weak wins, same as us. But they have 4 strong wins/losses against the top 4 opponents... we sucked in our biggest games. But those were all earlier when we were still trying to get people back from IR .. and settle into new rotations. So we're better now and have our rotations set.






Index
Player
G
REC
YDS
TD
LONG
AVG/C
REC/G
AVG/G


1
Tomczak,Max (Youngstown State)
12
73
904
4
73
12.4
6.1
75.3


2
Sobkowicz,Daniel (Illinois State)
13
70
997
9
84
14.2
5.4
76.7


3
Belquist,Bo (North Dakota)
12
65
932
10
73
14.3
5.4
77.7


4
Wood,Hunter (Missouri State)
12
63
770
3
35
12.2
5.3
64.2


5
Loyd,Xavier (Illinois State)
13
66
912
6
59
13.8
5.1
70.2


6
Rochelle,Rashad (Indiana State)
12
58
527
4
63
9.1
4.8
43.9


7
Wilde,Griffin (South Dakota State)
12
56
900
8
60
16.1
4.7
75.0


8
Lewis,Keontez (Southern Illinois)
11
49
813
5
65
16.6
4.5
73.9


9
Lance,Bryce (North Dakota State)
12
50
696
10
74
13.9
4.2
58.0


10
Kasper,Eddie (Illinois State)
10
41
367
0
43
9.0
4.1
36.7

[Redbird 4th & short]

Some perspective on our 112th ranked pass defense with 256 yards per game vs UCDs 3rd ranked pass offense with 325 YPG ... suggests we shouldn't bother showing up.

Well, the more Ive looked into this, the more I'm starting to believe our pass defense is actually better than it seems. Here are some mitigating stats and factors on that point:

1. we give up 256 pass yards per game, which ranks 10th in MVFC and 112th in FCS .. looks bad on surface for sure
2. but our defensive QBR is 130.6, which ranks 3rd in MVFC and #54 in FCS .. so middle of FCS. UCD is ranked 45th with 124.6 defensive QBR. UCS is 6 pts better.
3. our RZ Defense permits scores on just 73.2% of trips, which also ranks 3rd in MVFC and 21st in FCS .. UCD is down at #34 scoring on 76.9%, we're 3.7 pts better
4. our 3rd down conversion rate on defense is 37.8%, which again ranks 3rd in MVFC and 46th in FCS .. right behind UCD at#45 with 37.6%, within 0/2%
5. our scoring defense ranks 45th with 23.6 ppg, UCD is #38 with 23.17 ppg .. we're within half a point

So other than Pass YPG, our defense is pretty even with UCD. Their SOS is ranked 15th, ours is ranked 18th.

But the most telling factor as to why we've given up 256 pass YPG is this ... quite simply, we've played against a lot of quality and pass happy teams - Team Passing YPGs and QBR. So we've played 7 of 12 FCS QBs in top 30 YPG .. 4 are top 10. We also played 10 QBs in top half of FCS in QBR (#66 por better), including 5 in Top 25. Note, even the 4 least Pass Happy teams 9 thru 12, all 4 were in the upper half of QBR. But the top 8 below are all very accomplished passing offenses. Only Iowa is not listed below. And Ive included UCD, who we haven't played yet of course.

Now UCD is statistically in the top 3 of our opponents .. including MoST and NDSU, with SEMO and WIU not far behind. And we didn't fare well against NDSU and MoST .. but we're a different team the last 5 weeks since we've settled into our new rotations. But this helps explain why we are ranked #112 in Pass Yards per Game, even while doing well statistically in many other key defensive stats.



UCD is #3 with 325 YPG and #8 in QBR .. didn't play yet
SEMO is #4 with 322 YPG and #71 in QBR .. he had a 118 QBR against us in those 85 passes
MoST is #6 with 306 YPG and #2 in QBR
WIU is #7 304 YPG and #18 in QBR
EIU is #14 with 266 YPG and #45 in QBR
UNA is #22 with 246 YPG and #57 in QBR
SIU is #30 with 235 YPG and #72 in QBR
NDSU is #43 with 223 YPG but #1 in QBR
UNI is #84 with 186 YPG, but #53 in QBR
YSU is #88 with 181 YPG but #66 in QBR
UND is #95 with 173 YPG but #56 in QBR
ISUb is #110 with 147 YPG but #58 in QBR
MuST is #107 with 158 YPG and #118 in QBR


None of this is meant to suggest, they wont get lot of pass yards, just that we've seen a lot of teams that pass well, and went 9-2 ... though UCD is in top 3 for sure with the 2 teams that smoked us in weeks 5 and 7.

[caribbeanhen]

so what are the stats for teams that got the benefit of a bye week?

I've seen that work on here somewhere, meaning first round playoff winner advances to play team that had a first round bye...

[cmt]

so what are the stats for teams that got the benefit of a bye week?

I've seen that work on here somewhere, meaning first round playoff winner advances to play team that had a first round bye...

2023: 7-1 (North Dakota St beat No. 6 Montana St)
2022: 8-0
2021: 7-1 (South Dakota St beat No. 4 Sacramento St)
2019: 5-3 (Austin Peay beat No. 4 Sacramento St, Northern Iowa beat No. 7 South Dakota St, Illinois St beat No. 8 Central Arkansas)
2018: 8-0
2017: 5-3 (Kennesaw St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, New Hampshire beat No. 4 Central Arkansas, Weber St beat No. 8 Southern Utah)
2016: 5-3 (Youngstown St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, Wofford beat No. 6 Citadel, Richmond beat No. 7 North Dakota)
2015: 5-3 (Sam Houston St beat No. 4 McNeese St, Colgate beat No. 5 James Madison, Northern Iowa beat No. 6 Portland St)
2014: 7-1 (Sam Houston St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St)
2013: 5-3 (New Hampshire beat No. 5 Maine, Jacksonville St. beat No. 6 McNeese St, Coastal Carolina beat No. 8 Montana)

[FUBeAR]

2023: 7-1 (North Dakota St beat No. 6 Montana St)
2022: 8-0
2021: 7-1 (South Dakota St beat No. 4 Sacramento St)
2019: 5-3 (Austin Peay beat No. 4 Sacramento St, Northern Iowa beat No. 7 South Dakota St, Illinois St beat No. 8 Central Arkansas)
2018: 8-0
2017: 5-3 (Kennesaw St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, New Hampshire beat No. 4 Central Arkansas, Weber St beat No. 8 Southern Utah)
2016: 5-3 (Youngstown St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, Wofford beat No. 6 Citadel, Richmond beat No. 7 North Dakota)
2015: 5-3 (Sam Houston St beat No. 4 McNeese St, Colgate beat No. 5 James Madison, Northern Iowa beat No. 6 Portland St)
2014: 7-1 (Sam Houston St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St)
2013: 5-3 (New Hampshire beat No. 5 Maine, Jacksonville St. beat No. 6 McNeese St, Coastal Carolina beat No. 8 Montana)
62-18 / 77.5% … assuming FUBeAR’s abaci were both functioning correctly.

[caribbeanhen]

2023: 7-1 (North Dakota St beat No. 6 Montana St)
2022: 8-0
2021: 7-1 (South Dakota St beat No. 4 Sacramento St)
2019: 5-3 (Austin Peay beat No. 4 Sacramento St, Northern Iowa beat No. 7 South Dakota St, Illinois St beat No. 8 Central Arkansas)
2018: 8-0
2017: 5-3 (Kennesaw St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, New Hampshire beat No. 4 Central Arkansas, Weber St beat No. 8 Southern Utah)
2016: 5-3 (Youngstown St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St, Wofford beat No. 6 Citadel, Richmond beat No. 7 North Dakota)
2015: 5-3 (Sam Houston St beat No. 4 McNeese St, Colgate beat No. 5 James Madison, Northern Iowa beat No. 6 Portland St)
2014: 7-1 (Sam Houston St beat No. 3 Jacksonville St)
2013: 5-3 (New Hampshire beat No. 5 Maine, Jacksonville St. beat No. 6 McNeese St, Coastal Carolina beat No. 8 Montana)

so not including North Dakota State and evil twin South Dakota States wins, a perfect 0-22 over past 3 years for teams without a first round bye

[FUBeAR]

so not including North Dakota State and evil twin South Dakota States wins, a perfect 0-22 over past 3 years for teams without a first round bye
Yepper … Off week to heal after slugging out a Conference season + home field + often weak competition (particularly in the totally regionalized 1st 2 Rounds Format) for “regionally advantaged” Teams is a HUGE advantage. FUBeAR did some linear regression modeling mapping it vs. expected home vs. away / favorite vs. underdog wins in college football about 2 years ago…and it was significantly different. “Triple Word Score” for Top 8 Seeds - which is too much, IFBO. At least the “2nd round weaker opponent” piece has been somewhat mitigated by Seeding 16. But, it does ‘flow thru’ and continue thru the Playoffs…which then goes back into SoS calculations…which then…

DANG IT! FUBeAR promised hisself he wasn’t gonna beat this valid, but decayed horse again this year.

HATE YOU CHEN!!!

[caribbeanhen]

Yepper … Off week to heal after slugging out a Conference season + home field + often weak competition (particularly in the totally regionalized 1st 2 Rounds Format) for “regionally advantaged” Teams is a HUGE advantage. FUBeAR did some linear regression modeling mapping it vs. expected home vs. away / favorite vs. underdog wins in college football about 2 years ago…and it was significantly different. “Triple Word Score” for Top 8 Seeds - which is too much, IFBO. At least the “2nd round weaker opponent” piece has been somewhat mitigated by Seeding 16. But, it does ‘flow thru’ and continue thru the Playoffs…which then goes back into SoS calculations…which then…

DANG IT! FUBeAR promised hisself he wasn’t gonna beat this valid, but decayed horse again this year.

HATE YOU CHEN!!!

is that because of that half time performance I booked for you in MaConga this Saturday?

[Redbird 4th & short]

UCD up 14-7 ... ISUr started strong with 2 stops and a score. But UCD took the momentum back.

[AggiePride]

28-10 Aggies leading at the half; Hastings and Larison playing with chips on their shoulders.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Redbirds get the ball to start the 2nd half. Momentum and confidence got lost. But UCD just has to many weapons and their QB doesn't miss throws like ours does. Plus a couple weak drops by WRs.

Hope we can regroup, get a TD drive to start the half, and then see what the defense can do. Never one to give up, but this lokks like a steep climb, even if we score TD on the first drive.

[caribbeanhen]

Lans Solo

[SeattleCat]

Lan Larison is the definition of a pounder. He hits hard.

[Redbird 4th & short]

last 3 drives ended at their 7, their 16, and their 18 ... zero points ... 2 on 4th down, 1 on end zone pick.

Then they score on 2 plays .. 35-10.

[AggiePride]

AGS bending, but not breaking, and playing well through 4 downs, scored again and 42-10 now, 3:49 to go

[Redbird 4th & short]

congrats to Cal Davis ... you guys do a lot really well. Should be a great game against USD Coyotes .. good luck rest of way. Though will have to root for my conference mates.

[AggiePride]

congrats to Cal Davis ... you guys do a lot really well. Should be a great game against USD Coyotes .. good luck rest of way. Though will have to root for my conference mates.

Was definitely closer than the final score

xsalutex

[Redbird 4th & short]

Was definitely closer than the final score

xsalutex
In a way, yes, we couldn't finish drives
. 4 trips to you red zone had zero points. At one point early in Q4, we had 5 more first downs and like 45 more total yards, but we were down 28 to 10. Even still, we made it all look so hard at times and also didn't finish. You guys made it all look easy by comparison. Didn't seem like much consolation .. you guys are just very good.

[cmt]

In a way, yes, we couldn't finish drives
. 4 trips to you red zone had zero points. At one point early in Q4, we had 5 more first downs and like 45 more total yards, but we were down 28 to 10. Even still, we made it all look so hard at times and also didn't finish. You guys made it all look easy by comparison. Didn't seem like much consolation .. you guys are just very good.

Part of that red zone stat was because a FG didn't do anything for Illinois St at that point so they had to go for the TDs. Of course, 12 points on 4 red zone trips doesn't sound too good either.

Not that it's any consolation, but that game was definitely closer than 42-10. UCD was better, but on another day, that thing ends like 42-27 or something like that.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Part of that red zone stat was because a FG didn't do anything for Illinois St at that point so they had to go for the TDs. Of course, 12 points on 4 red zone trips doesn't sound too good either.

Not that it's any consolation, but that game was definitely closer than 42-10. UCD was better, but on another day, that thing ends like 42-27 or something like that.

Good point on not wanting to settle for FGs .. we were down 28-10 at half. So I had to look closer at our drives and the red zone trips. One I include only got to their 29 and we had the FG blocked .. partly on kicker it was low trajectory. So including that one, we had 6 drives to Red Zone:

.. 1st half: 1st drive we scored TD. 2nd we missed that FG/blocked. Last drive we got to 5, and kicked FG. So now already down 28-10. So 2 of 3 in RZ in 1st half including the one to 29.

.. 2nd half .. 1st drive to 7 but TO on downs. 2nd drive to 16, but went for it on 4th down and threw pick in endzone. Still down 28-10. 3rd drive drove to 18 and TO on downs. 4th drive TO on downs at our 40 on a fake punt I thought ... thinking Spack told him to run it if it looked good .. bad decision.

That was why I said 4 trips for zero points .. though one was 29 yd line. But yes, overall we were 2 of 6 for 10 pts.

I still go back to my main point ... yes we moved the ball and had chances. But they made it look easy. We made it all look very hard. They avg'd 7.8 yards per play, we avg'd 4.4. They were 7 of 13 on 3rd down, we were 11 of 24 .. nice %, but 24 3rd down plays is a lot. Then we went 2 of 6 on 4th downs. First downs wound up even at 26 to 26.

Again, we battled against a very good team on the road, and could have made it a respectable game if we finished some drives. But we didn't. And everything look hard because they were that much better than us.

We have all of our 2 deep offensive skill guys back next year, plus we get our preseason all american RB Mason Blakemore-King back. Just need to shore up our OL some. So assuming we hold our own in portal again, our offense has a lot coming back .. hoping it can improve against the better teams. Our defense loses some key pieces to graduation ... ad we clearly need some help on defense, which is not at all the norm for a Spack team.