AGS Game Of The Week, 2024 Playoffs Round 1 & Southern Classic

[Chalupa Batman]

Sorry for just the list of games, but no time for a write up this week. Perhaps I'll try and come back tonight and put something in.


What is the FCS game of the week?


#12 Illinois State @ #17 Southeast Missouri State

#T37 Central Connecticut State @ #10 Rhode Island

#21 UT Martin @ #16 New Hampshire

Grambling vs. Southern (in New Orleans, LA) (on NBC)

#32 Lehigh @ #9 Richmond

#19 Eastern Kentucky @ #11 Villanova

Drake @ #13 Tarleton State

#18 Northern Arizona @ #15 Abilene Christian

#20 Tennessee State @ #14 Montana (on ESPN2)

[Outsider1]

These are all hard to pick, but I had to go with our game for a couple of reasons: 1) It's ACU's first FCS play-off since we moved to DI and it's been a tough road to get here. 2) It's also been a while for NAU and a battle for them to get back. 3) I think we are fairly evenly matched teams that should put on a good show which is what the play-offs are all about.

[dbackjon]

These are all hard to pick, but I had to go with our game for a couple of reasons: 1) It's ACU's first FCS play-off since we moved to DI and it's been a tough road to get here. 2) It's also been a while for NAU and a battle for them to get back. 3) I think we are fairly evenly matched teams that should put on a good show which is what the play-offs are all about.


Agreed - seems to be one of the more evenly matched games.

And congrats on the first FCS playoffs - didn't realize that.

[MSUBobcat]

I agree with Outsider's comment. However, I went with Ill State @ SEMO and potentially for a different reason than why 4 others picked it.... I'm kinda hoping SEMO wins a close game at home, when the game would normally have been in Normal. The thought of the team, coaches, fans wondering if they would have eked out a victory if they hadn't given up home field for the HS championships.... My schadenfreude would be thru the roof!

[caribbeanhen]

These are all hard to pick, but I had to go with our game for a couple of reasons: 1) It's ACU's first FCS play-off since we moved to DI and it's been a tough road to get here. 2) It's also been a while for NAU and a battle for them to get back. 3) I think we are fairly evenly matched teams that should put on a good show which is what the play-offs are all about.

I picked this game as well, hopefully McIvor is ok! I didn't see your game vs SFA so not sure how he got hurt or if they just took him out to play it safe

[Outsider1]

I picked this game as well, hopefully McIvor is ok! I didn't see your game vs SFA so not sure how he got hurt or if they just took him out to play it safe

I watched the game, but actually missed the injury. I just saw when they put Haggard in. Coach KP said he expected McIvor to play though. I am just waiting to see.

[Redbird 4th & short]

I agree with Outsider's comment. However, I went with Ill State @ SEMO and potentially for a different reason than why 4 others picked it.... I'm kinda hoping SEMO wins a close game at home, when the game would normally have been in Normal. The thought of the team, coaches, fans wondering if they would have eked out a victory if they hadn't given up home field for the HS championships.... My schadenfreude would be thru the roof!

Schadenfreude ???? Well thats an oddly diabolical reason to pick against my Redbirds !!

Kidding aside .. as I said on another thread, we're actually all good with it, even Spack - he lobbied for it. It nets to big positive marketing for football, school, town and even all sports. 16 strong HS football programs (player, coaches, families, friends/students/etc) all parading thru Normal, IL, ISU campus, and Hancock for 2 days .. is a very good thing for ISU. We don't even get many chances to host Round 1 anyway. This is Year 2, and so far there are no regrets even this year. Not sure how long contract is .. but we went hard after this IHSA championsip deal well before this new 16 seed format was developed. But I doubt that would have changed anything.

Besides, if we can't beat SEMO on road, we weren't long for these playoffs anyway. We think the trend lines for both teams and SOS and even the 4 head to heads, all favor my Redbirds. Not saying we can't lose, but so long as we come ready to play, I like our chances a lot.

[ElCid]

I went with UT-M/NH game. I couldn't help feel they were each a tiny bit of pretender at times. Good teams though. They each had a generous schedule, but lost to the three hardest opponents on their schedule. Neither had a marquis win. Good regional match as well. It's why I love the playoffs.

[ElCid]

Besides, if we can't beat SEMO on road, we weren't long for these playoffs anyway. We think the trend lines for both teams and SOS and even the 4 head to heads, all favor my Redbirds. Not saying we can't lose, but so long as we come ready to play, I like our chances a lot.

This game was my second choice. And please don't take this wrong, but for the same reasons I have on the other. I really think both team have had a friendly schedule and haven't necessarily over impressed. The two hard Valley teams Ill St faced, they got thumped. They missed the other two. SEMO has one decent win, in hindsight. And a couple not real good Ls. That you have to play this on the road is unfortunate. But it might show who, if either, was a pretender, and who wasn't.

I was shocked at the common opponents when looking at these two teams. That normally doesn't happen for two teams in different confs. But you are right, edge clearly to Ill St. If you somehow lose a close one in the road, the schedule conflict might be re-evaluated.

[MSUBobcat]

Schadenfreude ???? Well thats an oddly diabolical reason to pick against my Redbirds !!

Kidding aside .. as I said on another thread, we're actually all good with it, even Spack - he lobbied for it. It nets to big positive marketing for football, school, town and even all sports. 16 strong HS football programs (player, coaches, families, friends/students/etc) all parading thru Normal, IL, ISU campus, and Hancock for 2 days .. is a very good thing for ISU. We don't even get many chances to host Round 1 anyway. This is Year 2, and so far there are no regrets even this year. Not sure how long contract is .. but we went hard after this IHSA championsip deal well before this new 16 seed format was developed. But I doubt that would have changed anything.

Besides, if we can't beat SEMO on road, we weren't long for these playoffs anyway. We think the trend lines for both teams and SOS and even the 4 head to heads, all favor my Redbirds. Not saying we can't lose, but so long as we come ready to play, I like our chances a lot.

I agree it's a terrible reason and I'm an a$$hole for it. It truly is nothing against your team, just the circumstance. xlolxxpeacex

I agree that hosting will be good for Ill. State's recruiting, but it also seems like a catch-22. The best players of the state get exposed to the school, its facilities, etc. which will probably help land some good prospects that they may have otherwise not gotten. These players theoretically then help the Redbirds make recurring trips to the playoffs, potentially often getting seeded in that 9-16 range... for which they can't host. And 'round and 'round we go. xrotatehx

[Redbird 4th & short]

I agree it's a terrible reason and I'm an a$$hole for it. It truly is nothing against your team, just the circumstance. xlolxxpeacex

I agree that hosting will be good for Ill. State's recruiting, but it also seems like a catch-22. The best players of the state get exposed to the school, its facilities, etc. which will probably help land some good prospects that they may have otherwise not gotten. These players theoretically then help the Redbirds make recurring trips to the playoffs, potentially often getting seeded in that 9-16 range... for which they can't host. And 'round and 'round we go. xrotatehx

No need to fall on sword on this .. Schadenfreude ... it's my new favorite word !!!

Just as clarification ... putting aside the key injuries I have bemoaned several times now, we're a different team than we were the first 8 games. We got some people back, and our new lineup settled in ... so we're getting much more consistent. As a result, we're finally finding our stride on defense, and our run game is getting more consistent.

Though MVFC depth is down this year after the top 3 Dakota's .. so it's a little harder to say for sure how far we've come. But were definitely in a better place. But assuming we do beat SEMO, going to UCD is a very tall order for round 2 .. they seem to do a lot well. So unless there is a physicality/size difference in our favor, I'm not seeing much chance for upset at UCD. I'd have to see a whole lot more at SEMO first. Even then, ive said for a while the top 5 or 6 is a a definite cut above everyone else ... top 3 for MVFC and Big Sky.

Speaking of which ... am I making too much of Idaho ? I really feel like they are a very strong #6 ... definitely better than Mercer and UIW, Certainly in big games .. maybe they play to level of opponent ?? So have trouble getting up for lesser teams. Be curious your views in Idaho ??

[MSUBobcat]

No need to fall on sword on this .. Schadenfreude ... it's my new favorite word !!!

Just as clarification ... putting aside the key injuries I have bemoaned several times now, we're a different team than we were the first 8 games. We got some people back, and our new lineup settled in ... so we're getting much more consistent. As a result, we're finally finding our stride on defense, and our run game is getting more consistent.

Though MVFC depth is down this year after the top 3 Dakota's .. so it's a little harder to say for sure how far we've come. But were definitely in a better place. But assuming we do beat SEMO, going to UCD is a very tall order for round 2 .. they seem to do a lot well. So unless there is a physicality/size difference in our favor, I'm not seeing much chance for upset at UCD. I'd have to see a whole lot more at SEMO first. Even then, ive said for a while the top 5 or 6 is a a definite cut above everyone else ... top 3 for MVFC and Big Sky.

Speaking of which ... am I making too much of Idaho ? I really feel like they are a very strong #6 ... definitely better than Mercer and UIW, Certainly in big games .. maybe they play to level of opponent ?? So have trouble getting up for lesser teams. Be curious your views in Idaho ??

I think you are spot on with Idaho, tho to not incur the wrath of FUBeAR, I wouldn't go so far as to say "definitely better than Mercer". I would probably agree with respect to UIW. They have a pretty stout defense but it has played to their opponents' level at times this year (see Cal Poly at home in mid-October). At the same time, the offense has pretty consistently put up points (sans an xasswhipx in Bozeman) with the backup (or even the backup's backup) starting for most of the year due to starter Jack Layne breaking his collarbone in that damn good performance by the Vandals against Oregon. He has been back the last 2 games and thrown for 517 yards on 35 of 49 (71.4%) for 6TD and 1 INT, albeit against meh to bad teams in Weber and Idaho State. If you assume that the defense will "get up" for playoff caliber teams, scoring mid-20's max could be expected. Having played only 3 games, it's hard to get a read on how Layne may do against playoff quality defenses. Granted it was Oregon, he was 11 of 25 (44%) for 168 yards and 1TD to 1 INT before leaving with injury in Week 1.

[Redbird 4th & short]

This game was my second choice. And please don't take this wrong, but for the same reasons I have on the other. I really think both team have had a friendly schedule and haven't necessarily over impressed. The two hard Valley teams Ill St faced, they got thumped. They missed the other two. SEMO has one decent win, in hindsight. And a couple not real good Ls. That you have to play this on the road is unfortunate. But it might show who, if either, was a pretender, and who wasn't.

I was shocked at the common opponents when looking at these two teams. That normally doesn't happen for two teams in different confs. But you are right, edge clearly to Ill St. If you somehow lose a close one in the road, the schedule conflict might be re-evaluated.

Might surprise most of you to hear this, but losing a close one to SEMO won't likely cause a big stir or any second guessing of this IHSA contract.

Friendly is very relative .. but no offense taken at all. 5 weeks ago I wouldn't have felt any confidence at all beyond 50/50. But today I feel much better given our own improved circumstances and looking at their recent results. Note, all the common opponent games were played well before we got relatively healthy.

But we have to show up and keep our mojo going on the road against the #17 ranked team.

[ElCid]

Might surprise most of you to hear this, but losing a close one to SEMO won't likely cause a big stir or any second guessing of this IHSA contract.

Friendly is very relative .. but no offense taken at all. 5 weeks ago I wouldn't have felt any confidence at all beyond 50/50. But today I feel much better given our own improved circumstances and looking at their recent results. Note, all the common opponent games were played well before we got relatively healthy.

But we have to show up and keep our mojo going on the road against the #17 ranked team.

Friendly in that you only got two of the tough conf teams, and, most of your harder games were at home. It really was a nice schedule.

[WrenFGun]

I think there's a surprisingly decent slate of first round games this year.

Even in the small/big playup games, I think CCSU will be in that game with URI starting their backup QB in their first playoff game in forever; I think Drake based on their performance against Eastern and again against a first time playoff-team in Tarleton that game could stay interesting; probably the one I'm least amped about is Lehigh/Richmond, which I think is the one most at risk of getting away.

I think that EKU/Nova game is terrific -- I think it could be a slug it out, old fashioned type game. Which Nova shows up? The one that just beat FBS bound Delaware or the one that lost 35-7 to Maine and put 14 up on UNH with their third string QB in? EKU has been absurdly resilient and they seem like a tough bunch. They also aren't likely to be impacted by northeast weather.

ACU I felt like had a chance to be a much higher seed had they finished off SFA. I suspect perhaps at minimum maybe they flip flop seeds with Tarleton. I feel like they'd rather be playing Drake right now. Nathan MacIver is the best QB i've seen in FCS this season. That doesn't mean I've watched everyone, but as far as just sitting back and letting it rip, he's terrific. I'd expect athletes to be about the same quality and NAU didn't play a lot of the meat of the BSC. Should be a good game.

UNH/UTM could easily be a seed flip. From a raw numbers perspective, both of these teams were similarly underappreciated/underranked in the polls for awhile. This is probably the 4th/5th last team in matchup. Seem to play similar games.

SEMO/ISU-r should be just a fantastic game.Teams seem evenly matched though SEMO losing to TSU their last time out surprised me.

Which Montana is going to show up? I think people ding them because they didn't play an FBS team but as long as they can afford, their FCS Scheduling was terrific. Basically three top 25 caliber FCS opponents including traveling to ND. I watched the game against WCU and that game was way closer than the final score. They come in getting spanked by the two good teams they played and snuck by a meh PSU team. And yet they get kicked Tennessee State. If I'm 11 seed Villanova I'm sitting there like WTF mate? I think Montana is fortunate in this matchup not to get EKU or UTM. I think they could've lost to either while they shouldn't have enormous problems with TSU, who looks like the worst team in the field on paper by the computer #'s.

[caribbeanhen]

No need to fall on sword on this .. Schadenfreude ... it's my new favorite word !!!

Just as clarification ... putting aside the key injuries I have bemoaned several times now, we're a different team than we were the first 8 games. We got some people back, and our new lineup settled in ... so we're getting much more consistent. As a result, we're finally finding our stride on defense, and our run game is getting more consistent.

Though MVFC depth is down this year after the top 3 Dakota's .. so it's a little harder to say for sure how far we've come. But were definitely in a better place. But assuming we do beat SEMO, going to UCD is a very tall order for round 2 .. they seem to do a lot well. So unless there is a physicality/size difference in our favor, I'm not seeing much chance for upset at UCD. I'd have to see a whole lot more at SEMO first. Even then, ive said for a while the top 5 or 6 is a a definite cut above everyone else ... top 3 for MVFC and Big Sky.

Speaking of which ... am I making too much of Idaho ? I really feel like they are a very strong #6 ... definitely better than Mercer and UIW, Certainly in big games .. maybe they play to level of opponent ?? So have trouble getting up for lesser teams. Be curious your views in Idaho ??

UCD always looks good until they play a good team

FCS pundits should’ve learned their lesson about Idaho last year when Albany went out to the hanger and beat them… I tried to warn you guys Poffenberger was gonna make that happen

As for your redbirds, I have only seen the condensed N Iowa game and have to say after watching that, it was hard to pick you over SEMO. I saw a solid team with some pretty good running backs and a solid defense but not a really good team if that makes sense. I saw a team without the weapons on offense and a average QB

tell me why I’m wrong