2024 Playoffs Round 1: #12 Illinois State @ SE Missouri State

[Professor Chaos]

Game kicks off at 11AM CT and will be streamed on ESPN+. Winner goes to #5 UC Davis next week.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54162024804_265e8ebd97_o.jpg

[The Cats]

Illinois State

[Redbird 4th & short]

Ironically, we went to SEMO in 2019 playoff 1st round. They were ranked 12 and favored. We were the team slipping due to injuries last few games. But we controlled the LOS and RB James Robinson ran wild for 290+ yards .. and we won pretty easily.

This year we're 12th seed and ranked, and SEMO is the one slipping a bit of late. Reversal of fortunes 6 years later to the week.

This season .. there are 4 common opponents where we outdid them 3 of 4. But weve played Massey #25 SOS and SEMO played #79. That and we've been trending favorable the last month and finally putting things together after be hammered by key injuries the first month or 2.

Haven't scouted their team, but I know they like to throw and got a lot of pass catcher, couple pretty tall.

Fyi for those not aware .. we host IHSA championships for all 8 divisions that weekend .. so there was no way we could host.

[JacksFan40]

Ironically, we went to SEMO in 2019 playoff 1st round. They were ranked 12 and favored. We were the team slipping due to injuries last few games. But we controlled the LOS and RB James Robinson ran wild for 290+ yards .. and we won pretty easily.

This year we're 12th seed and ranked, and SEMO is the one slipping a bit of late. Reversal of fortunes 6 years later to the week.

This season .. there are 4 common opponents where we outdid them 3 of 4. But weve played Massey #25 SOS and SEMO played #79. That and we've been trending favorable the last month and finally putting things together after be hammered by key injuries the first month or 2.

Haven't scouted their team, but I know they like to throw and got a lot of pass catcher, couple pretty tall.

Fyi for those not aware .. we host IHSA championships for all 8 divisions that weekend .. so there was no way we could host.
Odd they couldn’t have planned for a possible Illinois State playoff game when scheduling. Every year the SD state title games are in Vermillion and USD still plays a home game that weekend every so often. Even SDSU made it work when they hosted it in 2019 due to the Dome being renovated. Granted those were regular season games and we have 7 classes instead of 8.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Odd they couldn’t have planned for a possible Illinois State playoff game when scheduling. Every year the SD state title games are in Vermillion and USD still plays a home game that weekend every so often. Even SDSU made it work when they hosted it in 2019 due to the Dome being renovated. Granted those were regular season games and we have 7 classes instead of 8.

This was done with 100% knowledge it would preclude us from hosting a 1st round playoff game every year we host. Spack lobbied for it .. he loves what it does for marketing the school and football recruitment. This is year 2, and there don't appear to be any regrets.

Most fans are fine with it, even now.

[ST_Lawson]

As good as SEMO was doing the first part of the season, they've struggled in November.
Lost at Lindenwood by 12 in a rainy game (which negated much of their passing attack)
Beat my Leathernecks, but it was a really close one and they only pulled away in the last few minutes of the game. If WIU had had even an "average for the OVC" defense, SEMO would have lost that game.
Lost to a pretty decent Tennessee State team.

Meanwhile, ISU hasn't lost since mid-October.

Looking at common opponents (I know, transitive wins don't really mean much, but there were a decent number of them):
North Alabama - ISU won by 7, SEMO won by 22
Western Illinois - ISU won by 17, SEMO won by 9
Eastern Illinois - ISU won by 24, SEMO won by 11
Southern Illinois - ISU won by 35, SEMO won by 17

It just feels like SEMO has been struggling lately and ISU is on a bit of a hot streak, so I went with the Redbirds over the Redhawks.

[Libertine]

That's a bold choice, Cotton.

[Chalupa Batman]

Voted for SEMO, but I don't really like it. Haven't been too high on either of these teams the last month or so

[BeamMeUp]

This was done with 100% knowledge it would preclude us from hosting a 1st round playoff game every year we host. Spack lobbied for it .. he loves what it does for marketing the school and football recruitment. This is year 2, and there don't appear to be any regrets.

Most fans are fine with it, even now.
A lot of respect for Spack for sticking by this decision. He sees the long-term benefits, not only for the University, but for his football program as well.

[Redbird 4th & short]

As good as SEMO was doing the first part of the season, they've struggled in November.
Lost at Lindenwood by 12 in a rainy game (which negated much of their passing attack)
Beat my Leathernecks, but it was a really close one and they only pulled away in the last few minutes of the game. If WIU had had even an "average for the OVC" defense, SEMO would have lost that game.
Lost to a pretty decent Tennessee State team.

Meanwhile, ISU hasn't lost since mid-October.

Looking at common opponents (I know, transitive wins don't really mean much, but there were a decent number of them):
North Alabama - ISU won by 7, SEMO won by 22
Western Illinois - ISU won by 17, SEMO won by 9
Eastern Illinois - ISU won by 24, SEMO won by 11
Southern Illinois - ISU won by 35, SEMO won by 17

It just feels like SEMO has been struggling lately and ISU is on a bit of a hot streak, so I went with the Redbirds over the Redhawks.
This is how i see it as well. Thing is, we know we had a lot of weak wins and losses the first 8 games. But we dealt with a lot of key injuries .. impacted many of our top starters. Now down 4 starters for rest of season, but most of the rest are back .. and we finally know what we've got these last 4 weeks, and we're starting to gel finally.

The other aspect is SOS .. it isn't close other than these 4 common opponents, all when we were struggling earlier with lot of injuries. Also note that we're 5-0 on road, and have won 5 straight. Our last game was UND and we beat them pretty well .. stats were more dominant than score. Our defense held them as well as the 3 Dakotas and Iowa St.

As for SEMO, they don't run the ball well at all, and while they throw it a lot, their QBR is just 129 and comp rate is just 60% Their QB is really good at staying out of trouble .. just 10 picks and 16 sacks in 550 pass attempts. He's going to make our pass defense work, but its not like he picks defenses apart .. he's 6'5" .. so they just throw a lot. Their OL is good size, but SEMO has played the #79 SOS. And their pass to run count is 46 to 26, so they lean hard into pass game. Their yards per pass is modest and per run is weak. It worked for a while in the OVC, but eventually got figured out as they slipped, or they are banged up .. not sure.

Like you said, they've really struggled the last month .. check it on Massey. While we've found our stride during same period. So I think both teams trend lines and the difference in SOS bodes well for us, even on the road.

[Chalupa Batman]

This camera work is atrocious.

[caribbeanhen]

This camera work is atrocious.

yes it is

[ElCid]

SEMO just picking the Ill St pass defense apart. They made that drive with ease.

[skinny_uncle]

SEMO does have home field. 5-0 at home.

[Chalupa Batman]

What a play by the defensive linemen for a TD.....at least that's what it sounded like because we couldn't see it. Sure would've been nice to see it but the worst camera work I've ever seen strikes again.

Redbirds lead the Redhawks 21-7 with 2:06 left in the 1st half

[JacksFan40]

Turnovers killing SEMO, Redbirds are taking advantage of them.

[RahRahRabbits]

Second pick-six the Redhawks have given the Redbirds. Plenty of contact on the receiver, but a non-called penalty just happens to not be a penalty. Tipped, intercepted, and returned. 3rd interception on the day.

35-14 Illinois State. 9:45 left in the 3rd.

[JacksFan40]

The SEMO QB is on pace for 70 pass attempts. Ridiculous how unbalanced their offense is.

[JacksFan40]

6th turnover by SEMO if this fumble stands.

[RahRahRabbits]

Fumble doesn't stand, but another missed catch attempt by a receiver a few plays later does stand... the 4th interception, and 6th turnover on the day for the redhawks.

Starting to get clammy hands and the shakes... bad flashbacks are entering my mind... just 4 more turnovers to match the debacle the Jacks had in Virginia on that fateful December 2017 afternoon......

[RahRahRabbits]

Oh my goodness.... Illinois State offense stalls quickly, punts it... and gets yet ANOTHER turnover on a muffed punt by SEMO. No sun in the face... just a complete whiff.

7 turnovers....

[JacksFan40]

Fumble doesn't stand, but another missed catch attempt by a receiver a few plays later does stand... the 4th interception, and 6th turnover on the day for the redhawks.

Starting to get clammy hands and the shakes... bad flashbacks are entering my mind... just 4 more turnovers to match the debacle the Jacks had in Virginia on that fateful December 2017 afternoon......
Make it 7, muffed punt by SEMO.

That JMU game was the first thing that came to mind watching this, absolute implosion by SEMO.

[JacksFan40]

Illinois State is struggling to take advantage of the turnovers now. Turned it over on downs. Don’t see either team matching up well with UC Davis.

[RahRahRabbits]

Awful chippy out there! 35-14 end of 3rd quarter. ISUr turns it over on 4th and 1 with a shotgun snap, then handoff to the RB 6 yards deep. I'll never undestand that.

SEMO driving, nearly just had yet another pick by the ISUr defensive line... but they missed it by inches.

Sloppy sloppy sloppy.

[kdinva]

SEMO with the TD pass, receiver dancing around like the game is won, and over......act like you've been there before

[RahRahRabbits]

SEMO with the TD pass, receiver dancing around like the game is won, and over......act like you've been there before

Certainly not a good look. SEMO driving though again, inside the 15. 3 minutes left in the game, down 35-21.

The fact SEMO is even in this game still is a mind boggling disaster of a lack of running the clock or putting together any lengthy drives at all by ISUr.

Scratch that. Interception in the endzone. Official turnover #8 for SEMO. Wow.

[RahRahRabbits]

ISUr offense this half.

- 1 1st down, 22 yards, punt
- 1 1st down, 18 yards, punt
- 0 1st downs off muffed punt, turnover on downs after 4 plays and 9 yards.
- 1 1st down, 17 yards, punt
- 0 1st downs, -6 yards, punt
- 0 1st downs, 2 yards, punt

SEMO with 8 official turnovers... and was STILL in this game because of the Redbirds absolutely abysmal 2nd half offense.

Illinois State wins 35-27.

[Chalupa Batman]

85 pass attempts for DeLaurent, ties the all-time FCS record.

[RahRahRabbits]

85 pass attempts for DeLaurent, ties the all-time FCS record.

That's mind boggling. SEMO with only 15 rush attempts because of that, 8 of those were the QB either designed, scrambling, or sacked.