2024 Playoffs Round 1: UT Martin @ #16 New Hampshire

[Professor Chaos]

Game kicks off at 1PM ET and will be streamed on ESPN+. Winner goes to #1 Montana State next week.


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[The Cats]

Toss up in my book... can't even make a guess

[UNHWildcat18]

I’m very nervous as we have a few players that a banged up, hopefully they can all play next week.

I think it’s going to be a hell of a game.

[McCowboys]

Toss up in my book... can't even make a guess

I picked UNH just because they are at home.

[ming01]

Want to switch my pick to UT-Martin.

[caribbeanhen]

Want to switch my pick to UT-Martin.

You’re gonna regret that

[ST_Lawson]

Toss up in my book... can't even make a guess

100% agree. I went with UT Martin because they're OVC like we are now, but it's pretty much 50/50.

[ming01]

You’re gonna regret that

Seems like a toss up to me.

[WrenFGun]

Worth noting that by the end of the UNH/Maine game, UNH was down:

Starting FS Brendan Tighe [almost certainly out for the season], DE Josiah Silver, RB Myles Thomason, #1 WR Logan Tomlinson [ankle], #2 WR Joey Corcoran [Shoulder], #3 Caleb Burke [leg]. This is in addition to the fact that their #2 CB [Caleb Mead] now appears to be their starting running back despite never playing the position in college as of three weeks ago.

Hoping that Silver, Tomlinson and Burke at least are a go for UTM, but who knows.

[caribbeanhen]

Worth noting that by the end of the UNH/Maine game, UNH was down:

Starting FS Brendan Tighe [almost certainly out for the season], DE Josiah Silver, RB Myles Thomason, #1 WR Logan Tomlinson [ankle], #2 WR Joey Corcoran [Shoulder], #3 Caleb Burke [leg]. This is in addition to the fact that their #2 CB [Caleb Mead] now appears to be their starting running back despite never playing the position in college as of three weeks ago.

Hoping that Silver, Tomlinson and Burke at least are a go for UTM, but who knows.

well that's not good

[SeattleCat]

Worth noting that by the end of the UNH/Maine game, UNH was down:

Starting FS Brendan Tighe [almost certainly out for the season], DE Josiah Silver, RB Myles Thomason, #1 WR Logan Tomlinson [ankle], #2 WR Joey Corcoran [Shoulder], #3 Caleb Burke [leg]. This is in addition to the fact that their #2 CB [Caleb Mead] now appears to be their starting running back despite never playing the position in college as of three weeks ago.

Hoping that Silver, Tomlinson and Burke at least are a go for UTM, but who knows.

Most teams are pretty banged up this time of year, I imagine UTM has had some big losses too. Even Montana State is down a couple of running backs, Tackle, safety, linebacker all starters. Next man up.

[s-k]

I do this kind of streaming consciousness while I look over things and type on another forum to see who or what I might like to pick in a game. Here were my thoughts on this game if anyone sees anything that may be off or incorrect. I was unaware of some of those injuries for UNH other than Tomlinson who I saw walk off the field vs Maine. It is difficult for non-fans in the FCS who aren't as familiar with the team to know if they will play or not or the severity of the injury. Not much in the way of news on that sort of thing at this level.


I did immediately like the Under 50.5 in the UT Martin – New Hampshire game. It is 48.5 now FD and 46.5 at DK. Under in UNH FCS games are 7-2-2 by my count (avg total 50.13). UT Martin Unders are 5-6 (avg total 53.18).

If you watch New Hampshire you know they just are not good offensively. Such a drastic change from last year when their O is what led them and the D usually let them down. Now the D leads them and the O tries to score enough points.

I know I have posted a lot about the New Hampshire offense on here through the year when justifying their opponent as a play or taking an Under. Take last week, UNH definitely won that game because of their D, held Maine below 200y of O, 0-for-9 on 3rd down, held them to 8 FDs! But…the UNH O, they only had 286 ttl yards. Maine had a better ypp 4.4-4.0. UNH O wasn’t much better for 3Q vs Stony Brook, but they had a 3 TD 4Q and came from 20 down to win that one. UNH O posted just 326 ttl yards in that one (4.5). SB lost back-to-back fumbles in their own territory where UNH was able to get 2 TDs off just 66y of O short fields. Similar story vs Monmouth 3 games ago. UNH had a 5y TD drive after a muffed punt recovery and a 27y TD after an INT. UNH had 335y (3.9) in that one. Beat Albany 31-14, had some O in that one right? Not really. A 50y pick-six contributed to the 31 pts and just 297y of O, but did have a good 5.8 ypp which is by far the best they had vs anyone since September. Now we are back in the dark ages of UNH O, mid season when they scored 6 on Nova with just 254 ttl yards (3.9) and 9 on URI with just 235 ttl yards (3.5). How about 151 ttl yards and 2.6 yppg in a WIN at Elon! Ok, I’ll stop there. They actually did have some good O in Sept, thanks to playing Stonehill and Bryant.

An interesting thing about UNH is they are running it more than they are passing it the last several games. 38att – 122y (3.2) at Maine to 34 passes. 45att – 130y (2.9) vs Monmouth to 41 passes. 31att – 89y (3.0) at Albany to just 20 passes. That is 3 of their last 4 games. They did pass more than run vs SB because they were down and had to come back, but even there they ran 32att – 63y (2.0). So what is this? They are really trying to run the ball, but clearly are not very good at it. Started 3 different guys at RB in that span due to some injuries. They have been inserting a small starting CB Mead some at RB and he ripped off a 57y TD run (which means their other 37 runs netted just 65y). They must have realized their passing O is not good enough so no matter how inefficient their run game is, they still want to do it. The actual yards by the guys running the ball is better than the overall team stats because UNH gives up a lot of negative TFLs and sacks which get subtracted. UNH allows 8 TFLs per game! This ranks last in the CAA (115th nationally). They are the CAA’s worst rush O, but they try.

So that all sound great for the Under!

Other than WR Tomlinson (who was injured last week unsure status) – all the stars on this UNH team is on D. DEs Silver and Ruiz have been studs for 3 years now. Awesome they stuck around and didn’t transfer out. Silver has been 1st or 2nd Tm CAA all FOUR years and was just named CAA D POY this week. Ruiz has been 1st or 2nd Tm for just three years. Owens transferred in as a grad Safety after a nice career at Yale and he immediately had a huge impact. Toscano is a 5th year at LB and also terrific. They are almost 100 yards and a TD better on D this year than last. Of note, in the unbalanced schedule CAA, they did play 6 of the bottom 8 total Os in the league and only played 2 of the top 8 (Monmouth and Stony Brook). They held Monmouth to half their PPG (20) and were great in yards allowed to them (313 5.5). SB got their scoring avg on them (30), but the yards were down (326 5.1).

I think this D is pretty much for real and the O is not good.

I am personally less familiar with UT Martin. I do know they failed to score an offensive TD at home vs Tennessee Tech and finished with just 9 pts, and 185 ttl yards – almost just want to totally throw that result out. They scored 26 in regulation at Lindenwood last week (445y). Normally they are much better O than that though. Scored 28 on Tennessee State, 21 right out the gate and then punted 5 of their next 6 and scored just 1 TD the rest of the game there. UTM scores a lot vs the worst teams, 40 on CSU, 52 on EIU, 45 on WIU, 35 on GW and pretty good scoring O back in Sept except for the Mo State game.

I think their D is better than their O anyway though. Only three FCS teams have ran for over 100y on them – TTU 107y (3.1), GW 146y (4.3 – top RB for GW had 112y 6.6ypc), and UNA 122y (3.3). Pretty solid run D, just one off game vs GW. They are good, not great at the sacks and TFLs so not too many of those rush numbers are skewed by sacks, just a solid run D and an excellent front 7 (DL Charles Perkins, Christian Dowell, LBs Jaylon Sharp, Tevin Shipp all outstanding). Top 5 run D in FCS. Top 10 3rd down D, Top 10 with 18 INTs on D!

You know, I was reluctant for some reason to like UT Martin in the game, but the more I look here I think I do. I was not sold on the UTM O vs quality D and I can’t unsee the box score from the TTU game, but they likely have a better O than UNH. 4 of the 5 OL are 5th years (3 of which were just named among the top 10 OL in the conference including 2 first teamers), good running game with Patrick Smith leading, solid receivers, QB Dent I guess is pretty good, can run too.

I thought the weather was going to be a problem, but actually it won’t be. Just cold, low 40s, not that much colder than Martin Tennessee with this cold front coming through. Think the cold might effect UTM guys a little more, but not a deal breaker. People say that UNH is a weird place to play, I don’t know. I look back and URI beat them pretty easily there (in the 2H at least). SB was up 20 on them there before they blew it in the final 15 minutes.

Already have the Under and now I am going to take some UT Martin as well. +1 now at DK. This opened UTM -2.5 at FD, current -1.5. I will do some dollar cost avg approach here in case line keeps moving.

[ngineer]

I picked UNH just because they are at home.

This.

[caribbeanhen]

10-7 Tenn M

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

nasty hip drag tackle on the UTM TE....yikes...

[lionsrking2]

The CAA sucks that much is clear

[UNHWildcat18]

UNH missing a few key players and it’s very telling.

[WrenFGun]

I think what you're seeing is essentially the death of the old way of doing business in the FCS. UNH has exactly one FBS transfer on their roster, and he's not even a primary player [Zeroun Skinner is a rotational CB transfer from FIU]. UNH's transfers are slim, and the ones they have [with the exception of Wande Owens] are meant to be complementary. They've done well in going down and getting transfers [Owens, Tomlinson] but they are just physically outclassed here with UTM -- I don't mean this as a slight to UTM, they have plenty of home-grown pieces too but just athletically right now its not close.

[ElCid]

Wow, it's a good chunk into the third qtr and NH has less than 40 total yards. That's unbelievable for a "playoff" team. Not to mention a seeded at large team. Injuries happen. Looks like they have zero depth apparently.

[Chalupa Batman]

Wow, it's a good chunk into the third qtr and NH has less than 40 total yards. That's unbelievable for a "playoff" team. Not to mention a seeded at large team. Injuries happen. Looks like they have zero depth apparently.

Iowa had like 65 yards going into the 4th quarter last night and found a way to win. Don't see the Wildcats having a similar result though.

[JacksFan40]

Iowa had like 65 yards going into the 4th quarter last night and found a way to win. Don't see the Wildcats having a similar result though.
That’s par the norm for Iowa though, nobody else can get away with it like they can.

[Sitting Bull]

Yardage
UT-M 482
UNH 124

[crusader11]

Damn.

[caribbeanhen]

New Hampshire and N Arizona should play in The Committee Go Stand in the Corner Bowl

[FUBeAR]

New Hampshire and N Arizona should play in The Committee Go Stand in the Corner Bowl
…with the EKU @ Nova Refs calling the game.