AGS Poll Results 2024 Week 13 (SELECTION SUNDAY)

[AGSPoll]

11/24/2024





Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
Montana State Bobcats
999
39


2
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
940
1


3
North Dakota State Bison
911



4
South Dakota Coyotes
897



5
UC Davis Aggies
839



6T
Idaho Vandals
759



6T
Incarnate Word Cardinals
759



8
Mercer Bears
741



9
Richmond Spiders
703



10
Rhode Island Rams
628



11
Villanova Wildcats
531



12
Illinois State Redbirds
519



13
Tarleton Texans
500



14
Montana Grizzlies
485



15
Abilene Christian Wildcats
378



16
New Hampshire Wildcats
327



17
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
319



18
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
313



19
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
250



20
Tennessee State Tigers
240



21
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
199



22
Missouri State Bears
167



23
South Carolina State Bulldogs
80



24
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
74



25
Harvard Crimson
71
















ORV:




26T
Chattanooga Mocs
68



26T
Jackson State Tigers
68



28
Stony Brook Seawolves
54



29
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
39



30
Western Carolina Catamounts
38



31
North Carolina Central Eagles
30



32
Lehigh Mountain Hawks
29



33
Duquesne Dukes
19



34T
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
8



34T
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8



36
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
4



37T
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
2



37T
Dartmouth Big Green
2



37T
Towson Tigers
2






















Most Significant Win:
South Dakota Coyotes






Most Significant Loss:
North Dakota State Bison

[POD Knows]

Again, there is no real logic to SDSU being ahead of NDSU, none, zero, lost the head to head, had a weaker SOS, what am I missing here??? There FBS loss is a LOT worse than the NDSU loss, played a D2 and had fewer FCS wins. This just baffles me.

[Professor Chaos]

This week's top 25 article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-13-top-25-results/

I'm a little surprised to see Missouri St as low as they were at #22 - they had respectable losses to Montana, NDSU, SDSU, and FBS Ball St. They destroyed #12 Illinois St and won at #21 UTM. I doubt many of the schools above them finish the season any better playing NDSU and SDSU - I guess they're getting punished because they're not playoff eligible???

Some other notes of interest - believe it or not this is only the 2nd time in the history of the AGS Poll that Montana St has been #1 (the first was in week 11 of 2011). Some long droughts were ended as South Carolina St made their first appearance in the AGS Top 25 since 2013 and Southern Utah made their first appearance since 2018.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's the projected at-larges based on the AGS consesnsus:

1. NDSU (3)
2. USD (4)
3. UC Davis (5)
4. Idaho (6T)
5. Rhode Island (10)
6. Villanova (11)
7. Illinois St (12)
8. Tarleton (13)
9. Montana (14)
10. UNH (16)
11. NAU (18)
12. EKU (19)
13. Tennessee St (20)
14. UT Martin (21)

First 4 out:
Southern Utah (24)
Chattanooga (26T)
Stony Brook (28)
SLU (29)


Interesting to see NAU pretty comfortably in. We'll see if the committee gets any wrong this year. ;)

[OhioHen]

Important to note - the AGS poll is complete and published BEFORE the field is announced. STATS and Coaches will probably publish AFTER the field is announced and still be less "predictive" than AGS.

[Chalupa Batman]

The AGS bracket would look something like this (autobids in bold):

Southeast Missouri State @ #16 New Hampshire @ #1 Montana State
UT Martin @ #9 Richmond @ #8 Mercer

Tennessee State @ #13 Tarleton @ #4 South Dakota
#12 Illinois State @ Drake* @ #5 UC Davis

Eastern Kentucky @ #14 Montana @ #3 North Dakota State
Lehigh @ #11 Villanova @ #6 Idaho

Northern Arizona @ #15 Abilene Christian @ #2 South Dakota State
Central Connecticut State @ #10 Rhode Island @ #7 Incarnate Word


*Illinois State @ Drake due to the Illinois high school football championships taking place at Hancock Stadium next weekend

[coriander_seed]

Again, there is no real logic to SDSU being ahead of NDSU, none, zero, lost the head to head, had a weaker SOS, what am I missing here??? There FBS loss is a LOT worse than the NDSU loss, played a D2 and had fewer FCS wins. This just baffles me.
Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs)
Congrove, Doktor Entropy, Dolphin, and Massey...

[KnightoftheRedFlash]

Again, there is no real logic to SDSU being ahead of NDSU, none, zero, lost the head to head, had a weaker SOS, what am I missing here??? There FBS loss is a LOT worse than the NDSU loss, played a D2 and had fewer FCS wins. This just baffles me.

Recency bias is a terrible drug.

I never understood the wholesale acceptance a late loss is worse than an earlier defeat.

It makes no rational sense.

[ngineer]

Recency bias is a terrible drug.

I never understood the wholesale acceptance a late loss is worse than an earlier defeat.

It makes no rational sense.

I agree with the concern. The only rationale, that I can speculate, is that "early losses" are easier to "explain away" because some teams are still feeling out rosters and are less experienced than two months later in November. There can be more 'excuses' for mistakes made with a young roster in late August/early September, than in late November. Of course, by then some teams' rosters have been decimated by injuries...I know the old saw, "You are what your record says you are."

[Professor Chaos]

Here's the projected at-larges based on the AGS consesnsus:

1. NDSU (3)
2. USD (4)
3. UC Davis (5)
4. Idaho (6T)
5. Rhode Island (10)
6. Villanova (11)
7. Illinois St (12)
8. Tarleton (13)
9. Montana (14)
10. UNH (16)
11. NAU (18)
12. EKU (19)
13. Tennessee St (20)
14. UT Martin (21)

First 4 out:
Southern Utah (24)
Chattanooga (26T)
Stony Brook (28)
SLU (29)


Interesting to see NAU pretty comfortably in. We'll see if the committee gets any wrong this year. ;)
All I can say is wow!!!!

The AGS Poll nailed all 14 at-large teams. We nailed the 9-16 seeds exactly. The top 8 seeds were only 5 total seed lines off (NDSU and SDSU flipped - had Idaho 2 spots too high and Mercer one spot too low).

Great work voters!

EDIT: And had the same first 4 teams out as well!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Mercer Bears
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Richmond Spiders
10: Rhode Island Rams
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Tarleton Texans
13: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
14: Montana Grizzlies
15: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
16: Tennessee State Tigers
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Villanova Wildcats
19: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Lehigh Mountain Hawks
22: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
23: Harvard Crimson
24: Central Connecticut Blue Devils
25: South Carolina State Bulldogs

Go Lehigh TU Owl

The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook Seawolves
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Patriot League

[TheKingpin28]

All I can say is wow!!!!

The AGS Poll nailed all 14 at-large teams. We nailed the 9-16 seeds exactly. The top 8 seeds were only 5 total seed lines off (NDSU and SDSU flipped - had Idaho 2 spots too high and Mercer one spot too low).

Great work voters!

EDIT: And had the same first 4 teams out as well!Hats off to everyone who did this! Just another reason why there is no media or other fan poll better than us. No one even comes close, no one.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[smilo]

I spent an unreasonable amount of time poring through resumes until I was confident with the order I had 40 open tabs in. I am not surprised the selection committee went with UT-Martin and Tennessee State since they shared in a conference championship, but Southern Utah and Stony Brook appear to be better teams to me (not to mention three others that I had ahead of them. And I am OK with that decision. A conference champion has more rights to prove itself compared to a 5th place team with 2 OK wins

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota Coyotes
3: North Dakota State Bison
4: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Incarnate Word Cardinals
9: Richmond Spiders
10: Rhode Island Rams
11: Villanova Wildcats
12: Abilene Christian Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Missouri State Bears
15: Illinois State Redbirds
16: Montana Grizzlies
17: Harvard Crimson
18: New Hampshire Wildcats
19: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
20: Southern Utah Thunderbirds
21: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
22: Stony Brook Seawolves
23: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
24: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
25: Towson Tigers

26. Southeastern Louisiana; 27. UT-Martin; 28. Tennessee State; 29. Western Carolina; 30. Chattanooga
31. Dartmouth; 32. South Carolina State; 33. Tennessee Tech; 34. Jackson State; 35. Monmouth
36. William & Mary; 37. North Carolina Central; 38. Yale; 39. Duquesne; 40. Lehigh

[kdinva]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
21: South Carolina State Bulldogs
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Jackson State Tigers
25: Tennessee State Tigers



The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook Seawolves

[NDSU1980]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
21: South Carolina State Bulldogs
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Jackson State Tigers
25: Tennessee State Tigers



The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook Seawolves

NDSU in 8th place? LOL

[POD Knows]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
21: South Carolina State Bulldogs
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Jackson State Tigers
25: Tennessee State Tigers



The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook SeawolvesWhere did NDSU touch you, wow

[FUBeAR]

Where did NDSU touch you, wow
Pretty sure it was West (or, maybe, East) of The Cumberland Gap…

SoCon Football Standings


TEAM
CONF
OVR
OVR
PCT



Mercer

7-1
.875
10-2
.833



Western Carolina

6-2
.750
7-5
.583



Chattanooga

5-3
.625
7-5
.583



ETSU

5-3
.625
7-5
.583



NDSU -VS- ETSU


Qtr
Time
Scoring Play
NDSU
ETSU


4th
08:39
ETS - Lewis,Cameron 19 yd pass from King,Jaylen (Johnson,Ewan kick) 4 plays, 63 yards, TOP 02:23
23
35


4th
01:59
NDS - Marshall,TK 3 yd run (Crosa,Griffin kick), 6 plays, 51 yards, TOP 00:50
30
35

[POD Knows]

Pretty sure it was West (or, maybe, East) of The Cumberland Gap…

SoCon Football Standings


TEAM
CONF
OVR
OVR
PCT



Mercer

7-1
.875
10-2
.833



Western Carolina

6-2
.750
7-5
.583



Chattanooga

5-3
.625
7-5
.583



ETSU

5-3
.625
7-5
.583



NDSU -VS- ETSU


Qtr
Time
Scoring Play
NDSU
ETSU


4th
08:39
ETS - Lewis,Cameron 19 yd pass from King,Jaylen (Johnson,Ewan kick) 4 plays, 63 yards, TOP 02:23
23
35


4th
01:59
NDS - Marshall,TK 3 yd run (Crosa,Griffin kick), 6 plays, 51 yards, TOP 00:50
30
35



Fine, then we can throw out the fluke win by USD over NDSU at USD. ETSU was also a ranked team for most of the year. NDSU at 8 is a complete outlier and cannot be supported by any decent metric, sorry, it just can't.

[RahRahRabbits]

Fine, then we can throw out the fluke win by USD over NDSU at USD. ETSU was also a ranked team for most of the year. NDSU at 8 is a complete outlier and cannot be supported by any decent metric, sorry, it just can't.

Very much agree, NDSU at 8 is borderline criminal. I do think Fubear was making a joke, however.

[POD Knows]

Very much agree, NDSU at 8 is borderline criminal. I do think Fubear was making a joke, however.Probably but I have seen that reference to the ETSU game multiple times on other threads and sites and it is relevant topic for discussion I guess. I nicked them at the time for the game but it wasn't like losing or skating by some bottom feeder. Hell, Mercer only beat them by 6, maybe Mercer should be tossed out of the top 8 seeds and that game was at Mercer, I watched it.

[Bisonoline]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
21: South Carolina State Bulldogs
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Jackson State Tigers
25: Tennessee State Tigers



The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook Seawolves

Now that's funny.

[ElCid]

Probably but I have seen that reference to the ETSU game multiple times on other threads and sites and it is relevant topic for discussion I guess. I nicked them at the time for the game but it wasn't like losing or skating by some bottom feeder. Hell, Mercer only beat them by 6, maybe Mercer should be tossed out of the top 8 seeds and that game was at Mercer, I watched it.

Possibly, but as with most games, comparing OOC and Conf games is really hard to do. It's hardly ever an apples to apples comparison. The whole rivalry, history, familiarity, travel, etc, most certainly add a dynamic to the conf games that isn't usually present in OOC games. So I've always tempered equal comparisons of these two situations. Another example was how easy it is to say Mercer and UTC should never have have lost to Samford. They really shouldn't have, but these team know each other very well and they know how to exploit weaknesses way better than non conf teams do. How did Nova lose to Maine so bad? Or an OOC example, how did UND beat Montana? But lost to 4-8 YSU, who also lost to Duquesne? These were just some quick examples, but there are lots more.

But NDSU that low was a bit much. ETSU should have never lost that game. It is interesting to note that they did the same thing to KSU, in the playoffs a few years ago. Two scores in last two minutes to win. They should have known better.

[FUBeAR]

Very much agree, NDSU at 8 is borderline criminal. I do think Fubear was making a joke, however.
Nope, not a joke - just reporting FACTS with a humorous (hopefully) style.

The FACT is that NDSU was losing, on the road, to the tied-for-3rd place, 6 FCS wins, SoCon Team 58 minutes into the game. The bizuns, to their credit, had the will to win it and ETSU didn't have what it took to close it out, as they should have. As Coach30 says on X, "the moment was too big for them and they pissed down their leg." But what happened, DID happen.

FUBeAR hasn't seen many people offering benevolence, forgiveness, and kind words of encouragement to Mercer (MUCH of the opposite though) for failing to get off the bus, on the road, at Samford (a Team, afflicted with multiple personality disorder, that finished just a game behind ETSU in the SoCon) until 4 minutes after Kickoff. The Bears "won" the final 56 minutes of that game by a point, but with a True-FR QB subbing in for their Starter who went down, they didn't have enough to climb out of the 21 point hole they dug for themselves in those 1st 4 minutes.

The outcomes were different and Mercer should NOT receive ANY forgiveness for their failure to show up on time, costing themselves a perfect, undefeated in FCS, record.

BUT ... if someone chooses NOT to memory-hole what NDSU looked like for 58 minutes in Johnson City against a nearly-middle-of-the-pack SoCon Team, that seems to be 'not-out-of-the-question' to FUBeAR.


Personally, FUBeAR would have NDSU @ #2 with MTSt @ #1, SDSU #3, and USD @ #4 - just as most do/did.


Y'all don't wanna talk about who FUBeAR thinks should be #5 (HINT: it's the Team that played 656 out of 660 minutes of winning FCS Football this season), but that's OK.

It's all set now and FUBeAR really likes Mercer's draw.

If the Bears don't get past the winner of URI/CCSU at home, then they probably didn't deserve to be in the Playoffs anyway - regardless of earning the SoCon AutoBid.

And indoors in Fargo, regardless of the noise level (which is a HUGE challenge), may be much better than being outdoors in Brookings or Billings on 12/14. Probably better to play a #4 (if at #5) vs. a #2...but at that point, everyone's really good...Kinda like asking if you'd rather have a 45-pound plate or an anvil dropped on your toe.

Should be fun to watch it all unfold.

[MSUBobcat]

Possibly, but as with most games, comparing OOC and Conf games is really hard to do. It's hardly ever an apples to apples comparison. The whole rivalry, history, familiarity, travel, etc, most certainly add a dynamic to the conf games that isn't usually present in OOC games. So I've always tempered equal comparisons of these two situations. Another example was how easy it is to say Mercer and UTC should never have have lost to Samford. They really shouldn't have, but these team know each other very well and they know how to exploit weaknesses way better than non conf teams do. How did Nova lose to Maine so bad? Or an OOC example, how did UND beat Montana? But lost to 4-8 YSU, who also lost to Duquesne? These were just some quick examples, but there are lots more.

But NDSU that low was a bit much. ETSU should have never lost that game. It is interesting to note that they did the same thing to KSU, in the playoffs a few years ago. Two scores in last two minutes to win. They should have known better.

I generally agree that the familiarity of conference opponents helps explain away in-conference games that are closer than you'd expect, or even upsets. However, playing devil's advocate, why does the familiarity go more one way than the other, e.g. wouldn't Mercer be as familiar with Samford as Samford is with Mercer and therefore the "better team" should still win, even if not by as much as one would think? I think familiarity narrows the gap between 2 teams and then the real answer is.... AGS.

A recent example of where familiarity didn't result in a close game is the Brawl from this weekend. There were something like 90+ combined players from Montana representing MSU and UM. Not only do they know each other from playing in-conference, many of these kids played against each other in HS or even were on the same team. Some were likely really good friends with the people lining up opposite them. That still didn't result an upset, a close game, or even one where the Griz covered the spread. Obviously, this is a single example and I do think more often than not conference foes play tighter games than we expect, but it does show that we can't just chalk up a poor, or less than expected, result to "conference games... whaddaya gonna do....."

[FUBeAR]

I generally agree that the familiarity of conference opponents helps explain away in-conference games that are closer than you'd expect, or even upsets. However, playing devil's advocate, why does the familiarity go more one way than the other, e.g. wouldn't Mercer be as familiar with Samford as Samford is with Mercer and therefore the "better team" should still win, even if not by as much as one would think? I think familiarity narrows the gap between 2 teams and then the real answer is.... AGS.

A recent example of where familiarity didn't result in a close game is the Brawl from this weekend. There were something like 90+ combined players from Montana representing MSU and UM. Not only do they know each other from playing in-conference, many of these kids played against each other in HS or even were on the same team. Some were likely really good friends with the people lining up opposite them. That still didn't result an upset, a close game, or even one where the Griz covered the spread. Obviously, this is a single example and I do think more often than not conference foes play tighter games than we expect, but it does show that we can't just chalk up a poor, or less than expected, result to "conference games... whaddaya gonna do....."
Yeah - FUBeAR doesn't put a whole lot of weight on it (particularly in the portal era), but here's why it tends to favor the underdog...

The favorite has been watching the underdog get whipped on opposite Team's videos all season...and, as much as Teams preach "1-0 this week" and "faceless opponent" and "play to our standard," it's just human nature to 'play down' when facing an inferior opponent - that you've watched be inferior for weeks ... or even entire prior seasons.

BUT - another factor not yet mentioned is the "Inside Baseball" that is played in-conference. All Teams in the Conference want the Front-Runner(s) to get knocked off. And, all of these Coaches, particularly in-conference, know each other well. So, whatever rules might exist in a Conference regarding video exchange between upcoming opponents, you can bet that the underdog Team is getting every bit of video they might want from the other non-front-running Coaching Staffs and they are getting their analytics and their thoughts on what worked / what didn't and why.

Better Team should still win, but ... AGS!

[MSUBobcat]

Nope, not a joke - just reporting FACTS with a humorous (hopefully) style.

The FACT is that NDSU was losing, on the road, to the tied-for-3rd place, 6 FCS wins, SoCon Team 58 minutes into the game. The bizuns, to their credit, had the will to win it and ETSU didn't have what it took to close it out, as they should have. As Coach30 says on X, "the moment was too big for them and they pissed down their leg." But what happened, DID happen.

FUBeAR hasn't seen many people offering benevolence, forgiveness, and kind words of encouragement to Mercer (MUCH of the opposite though) for failing to get off the bus, on the road, at Samford (a Team, afflicted with multiple personality disorder, that finished just a game behind ETSU in the SoCon) until 4 minutes after Kickoff. The Bears "won" the final 56 minutes of that game by a point, but with a True-FR QB subbing in for their Starter who went down, they didn't have enough to climb out of the 21 point hole they dug for themselves in those 1st 4 minutes.

The outcomes were different and Mercer should NOT receive ANY forgiveness for their failure to show up on time, costing themselves a perfect, undefeated in FCS, record.

BUT ... if someone chooses NOT to memory-hole what NDSU looked like for 58 minutes in Johnson City against a nearly-middle-of-the-pack SoCon Team, that seems to be 'not-out-of-the-question' to FUBeAR.


Personally, FUBeAR would have NDSU @ #2 with MTSt @ #1, SDSU #3, and USD @ #4 - just as most do/did.


Y'all don't wanna talk about who FUBeAR thinks should be #5 (HINT: it's the Team that played 656 out of 660 minutes of winning FCS Football this season), but that's OK.

It's all set now and FUBeAR really likes Mercer's draw.

If the Bears don't get past the winner of URI/CCSU at home, then they probably didn't deserve to be in the Playoffs anyway - regardless of earning the SoCon AutoBid.

And indoors in Fargo, regardless of the noise level (which is a HUGE challenge), may be much better than being outdoors in Brookings or Billings on 12/14. Probably better to play a #4 (if at #5) vs. a #2...but at that point, everyone's really good...Kinda like asking if you'd rather have a 45-pound plate or an anvil dropped on your toe.

Should be fun to watch it all unfold.

Was that the problem for the Samford game?? Did the player buses go to a city 2 hours down the interstate from where the game was actually being played and the band had to play until they arrived, 4 minutes of game-time in??? In that case, maybe we owe Mercer some forgiveness after all.... xsmiley_wix

[FUBeAR]

Was that the problem for the Samford game?? Did the player buses go to a city 2 hours down the interstate from where the game was actually being played and the band had to play until they arrived, 4 minutes of game-time in??? In that case, maybe we owe Mercer some forgiveness after all.... xsmiley_wix
Billings / Bozeman? Is there a difference? It's all frozen tundra, ain't it?

Samford Public Safety stopped Mercer's Team Bus on the way into campus and conducted what they called a "random safety inspection" that lasted for hours. They wouldn't allow any of the Players or Coaches to leave the scene or they threatened that they would "Scheffler" them.

So Mercer's Team Managers and Trainers, who came to the game, separately, in a van, and Mercer's Cheerleaders (male and female) played the 1st 4 minutes.

No forgiveness requested though - NEXT MAN (OR WOMAN) UP!!!

[MSUBobcat]

Billings / Bozeman? Is there a difference? It's all frozen tundra, ain't it?

Samford Public Safety stopped Mercer's Team Bus on the way into campus and conducted what they called a "random safety inspection" that lasted for hours. They wouldn't allow any of the Players or Coaches to leave the scene or they threatened that they would "Scheffler" them.

So Mercer's Team Managers and Trainers, who came to the game, separately, in a van, and Mercer's Cheerleaders (male and female) played the 1st 4 minutes.

No forgiveness requested though - NEXT MAN (OR WOMAN) UP!!!

Nicely done. Chuckled reading about the Schefflering and next man (or woman) up! xlolx

Billings and Bozeman are vastly different. We are mountain-adjacent in Billings, being 40 miles from the nearest mountains, while you can't go 40 miles in any direction from Bozeman without being in the mountains.

[NDSU1980]

Question for Ursus or anyone else connected with ballot counting, will a poll ballot be thrown out if it's obviously got a selection or two way off, either someone way too high or too low? Or do you figure any bias gets evened out in the end?

[MSUBobcat]

Question for Ursus or anyone else connected with ballot counting, will a poll ballot be thrown out if it's obviously got a selection or two way off, either someone way too high or too low? Or do you figure any bias gets evened out in the end?

I believe he reaches out to verify, but other than obvious errors (e.g. when UND used to always get a vote or 2 that was clearly meant to be NDSU), voters are giving significant leeway in their ballot. That said, I would wager that obvious bias has rarely, if ever, occurred in any significant way. It's actually usually found to be the opposite, in that a fan is usually harder on his team than the average voter, likely in an attempt to avoid even an appearance of homerism.

[Professor Chaos]

Question for Ursus or anyone else connected with ballot counting, will a poll ballot be thrown out if it's obviously got a selection or two way off, either someone way too high or too low? Or do you figure any bias gets evened out in the end?


I believe he reaches out to verify, but other than obvious errors (e.g. when UND used to always get a vote or 2 that was clearly meant to be NDSU), voters are giving significant leeway in their ballot. That said, I would wager that obvious bias has rarely, if ever, occurred in any significant way. It's actually usually found to be the opposite, in that a fan is usually harder on his team than the average voter, likely in an attempt to avoid even an appearance of homerism.
Yep - pretty sure if the voter can justify it with anything more substantiative than "cuz I wanted to" it's included. I think it's good that voters aren't punished for being off from the consensus - in the end each ballot is roughly 2% of the collective so it'll balance out and it's not all that rare for the outlier to turn out right by the end of the season.

[MSUBobcat]

Yep - pretty sure if the voter can justify it with anything more substantiative than "cuz I wanted to" it's included. I think it's good that voters aren't punished for being off from the consensus - in the end each ballot is roughly 2% of the collective so it'll balance out and it's not all that rare for the outlier to turn out right by the end of the season.

Keep that in mind next season when I still have my drawn-from-a-hat preseason picks rolling in the top 25 after Week 9 with 2 wins but some damn quality losses. :D "They're coming on a creep-up!"

[POD Knows]

Possibly, but as with most games, comparing OOC and Conf games is really hard to do. It's hardly ever an apples to apples comparison. The whole rivalry, history, familiarity, travel, etc, most certainly add a dynamic to the conf games that isn't usually present in OOC games. So I've always tempered equal comparisons of these two situations. Another example was how easy it is to say Mercer and UTC should never have have lost to Samford. They really shouldn't have, but these team know each other very well and they know how to exploit weaknesses way better than non conf teams do. How did Nova lose to Maine so bad? Or an OOC example, how did UND beat Montana? But lost to 4-8 YSU, who also lost to Duquesne? These were just some quick examples, but there are lots more.

But NDSU that low was a bit much. ETSU should have never lost that game. It is interesting to note that they did the same thing to KSU, in the playoffs a few years ago. Two scores in last two minutes to win. They should have known better.
NDSU shouldn’t have lost to USD either. It was as much of a fluke as the NDSU game at ETSU. Go watch the last 5 minutes of that game. Fluke bounces, an offensive face mask penalty that nullified a bison first down at the end of the game. Lots of crazy ****. It is what it is

[Bisonator]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: South Dakota Coyotes
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: Incarnate Word Cardinals
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Richmond Spiders
11: Illinois State Redbirds
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: New Hampshire Wildcats
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
21: South Carolina State Bulldogs
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Jackson State Tigers
25: Tennessee State Tigers



The Most Significant Win: Tennessee State Tigers
The Most Significant Loss: Stony Brook Seawolves
Curious what your week 12 poll looked like, didn't see it posted in that weeks thread. Just wondering if you dropped NDSU from 1 to 8 or if you had them lower then most already.

[NDSU1980]

Curious what your week 12 poll looked like, didn't see it posted in that weeks thread. Just wondering if you dropped NDSU from 1 to 8 or if you had them lower then most already.

I'd like to know too where kdinva has been ranking NDSU all season. Funny how quiet he got when he got called out.

[FUBeAR]

I'd like to know too where kdinva has been ranking NDSU all season. Funny how quiet he got when he got called out.
Kind of a quiet guy, but a GREAT FAN of FCS Football, the SoCon, and his VMI Keydets for decades … and that ain’t easy, NDSU1980.

He’s also very knowledgeable and sincere (nothing like FUBeAR). We don’t keep stats, but FUBeAR would wager his picks and score projections in the Weekly SoCon threads are miles ahead of other posters there…except for FUBeAR, who, of course, edits his projections AFTER the games are played.

FUBeAR has NDSU @ #2, but not everyone thinks, like many of y’all seem to, that those bizuns chips, like the one they left in Johnson City, don’t stink.

[ElCid]

Kind of a quiet guy, but a GREAT FAN of FCS Football, the SoCon, and his VMI Keydets for decades … and that ain’t easy, NDSU1980.

He’s also very knowledgeable and sincere (nothing like FUBeAR). We don’t keep stats, but FUBeAR would wager his picks and score projections in the Weekly SoCon threads are miles ahead of other posters there…except for FUBeAR, who, of course, edits his projections AFTER the games are played.

FUBeAR has NDSU @ #2, but not everyone thinks, like many of y’all seem to, that those bizuns chips, like the one they left in Johnson City, don’t stink.

No joke. kdinva is very knowledgeable. No need to kick him because some may not agree. I've seen some pollsters with more questionable ranking. Everyone has their take. His take "may" have been a bit outside, but you'd think he hit some fans with his pitch.

[caribbeanhen]

Kind of a quiet guy, but a GREAT FAN of FCS Football, the SoCon, and his VMI Keydets for decades … and that ain’t easy, NDSU1980.

He’s also very knowledgeable and sincere (nothing like FUBeAR). We don’t keep stats, but FUBeAR would wager his picks and score projections in the Weekly SoCon threads are miles ahead of other posters there…except for FUBeAR, who, of course, edits his projections AFTER the games are played.

FUBeAR has NDSU @ #2, but not everyone thinks, like many of y’all seem to, that those bizuns chips, like the one they left in Johnson City, don’t stink.

take a bow

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Question for Ursus or anyone else connected with ballot counting, will a poll ballot be thrown out if it's obviously got a selection or two way off, either someone way too high or too low? Or do you figure any bias gets evened out in the end?

Well it does not really happen too much. By that I can tell you of one guy that quit voting because I did question his conference bias pretty hard several times and made him argue his stance and those arguments need more merit than than "that is what I think" type of things. This was about 10 yrs. ago and he had little shame in voting his conference teams as the top 7 or 8 even late in the season. So his vote was way out of line even when considered against the actual overall poll ballots in, and the conference only poll voters he was associated with. So in the end he was the only voter in the history of the poll that I did not accept several of his ballots. It was really obvious, and over a period of time.

But other than that what happens usually is that I try to get any new voters right when they sign up and follow them closely, communicate with them how things are done, and let them know that I am not looking to fight or have arguments but that I want them to get parameters of the culture of what our poll is trying to do and after one year there is almost no problem with any voters. They get it pretty quickly. As MSUBobcat pointed out, there is normally anti bias as I've shown in the past when comparing a set of conference voters rankings with non conference voters.

As you can see by looking around there are a vast majority of voters that have been doing it for many years, and never missing a ballot. So, we have little trouble except for one thing that needs correcting usually and that can be the Montana's, ND's, SD's, and Idaho's getting confused for their brothers across the state. That and duplicates are really the only things I spend any amount of time on vetting the vote.

I used to spend pretty much all day Sunday prepping and fixing things but anymore I turn on the Outlaw Country, sit down after some breakfast and start sending out the ballots and looking over and testing that people have their ballots in order and not missing someone they had in previously etc. These days I spend about 1/10th the time going over things that I used to. Our voters are down to a very condensed number of voters that really know WTF they are doing. It is pretty easy to coach when you are dealing with players like that! xlolx

[POD Knows]

No joke. kdinva is very knowledgeable. No need to kick him because some may not agree. I've seen some pollsters with more questionable ranking. Everyone has their take. His take "may" have been a bit outside, but you'd think he hit some fans with his pitch.
A bit outside, it was 8 feet outside and hit the batter in the on deck circle. 😀 the poster generally posts his polls I think and I don’t believe I have ever had an issue with one of his polls. He can feel free to come on and explain it. I have had to eat some crow on here a couple times for “interesting” polls, it sort of comes with the territory.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Yep - pretty sure if the voter can justify it with anything more substantiative than "cuz I wanted to" it's included. I think it's good that voters aren't punished for being off from the consensus - in the end each ballot is roughly 2% of the collective so it'll balance out and it's not all that rare for the outlier to turn out right by the end of the season.

Justify it is exactly right. All anyone has to do to defend it is say what it was that got them to their spot on the ballot and nobody that does their own ballot has any problem saying why they thought that team deserved the spot. Sometimes, it is a voter leaving a deserving team out too and then I will try and justify why they might deserve consideration over a team they have in. About 1/2 the time they consider it and sya "Yeah, I missed that" and ask to have me fix it and 1/2 the time they want to leave it as is...and we do. But they have something new to look at for the following week's ballot...and then a lot of you guys will point things out as well in the thread too so it truly is a great way to do this thing.

[JALMOND]

Just a thank you to all the voters who participated in the poll this year. The poll has truly become one worth reckoning, and it is due to all of you, both up front and behind the scenes, that keep it going. Even though it's been awhile since my team (Portland State) has made an appearance, I do appreciate it and appreciate the hard work on it.

[Bisonator]

I'd like to know too where kdinva has been ranking NDSU all season. Funny how quiet he got when he got called out.
I'm not calling him out at all just curious if he had NDSU lower than most last week I can buy the drop to 8th I guess. If he had them 1 or 2 then I find the drop a little harsh but oh well. Just curious...