SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 13

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games on Saturday, 11/23. Kickoff times shown are ET.



AWAY TEAM
HOME TEAM
TIME
Future News


ETSU
VMI

12P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55478_VMI-vs-ETSU_20241123/stats/)




Chattanooga
Austin Peay

1P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55512_PEAY-vs-CHAT_20241123/stats/)




Furman
Mercer

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55532_MER-vs-FUR_20241123/stats/)




Western Carolina
Samford

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55522_SAM-vs-WCU_20241123/stats/)




The Citadel
Clemson

3:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52399_CLEM-vs-CIT_20241123/stats/)




Wofford
South Carolina

4P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52081_SC-vs-WOF_20241123/stats/)

[Mocs123]

The real question is will the SoCon get anyone in except for Mercer? It seems like both the Mocs and Bucs didn't want to play after Thanksgiving this year based on last Saturday.

[bonarae]

ETSU
Austin Peay
Mercer
WCU
Clumpson
USC Gamecocks

[wcugrad95]

Mocs123 - the Bucs at best will finish with a max of 6 D1 wins. UTC will finish at best 7-3 against FCS teams but very well might finish in 3rd place in the league. IMO the league’s only possible shot at a 2nd team would be WCU with a win given we would be 6-2 and alone in 2nd place. And I really don’t see us getting in, but would be shocked for a team behind the Cats in the league standings with the same record making it. Of course it is the FCS playoff committee, and they shock me annually.

[FUBeAR]

Mocs123 - the Bucs at best will finish with a max of 6 D1 wins. UTC will finish at best 7-3 against FCS teams but very well might finish in 3rd place in the league. IMO the league’s only possible shot at a 2nd team would be WCU with a win given we would be 6-2 and alone in 2nd place. And I really don’t see us getting in, but would be shocked for a team behind the Cats in the league standings with the same record making it. Of course it is the FCS playoff committee, and they shock me annually.FUBeAR’s takeaway, from years of observing and then scratching until his scalp is bloody, is the Committee doesn’t give a rat’s hindquarters about Conference standings / Conference records. They seem to view those as incidental. SoCon Champions without the Autobid, which WCU still could be, pending FUBeAR’s lifting of the curse decision, have been excluded on at least 1 (but it may be 2 or 3) occasion, in favor of some 5th place CAA Team.

WCU’s “leg up” over Chatt is the H2H victory, not the SoCon standings. Chatt’s “leg up” over WCU is a .700 FCS record vs. WCU’s .636 (assuming wins this coming week).

FUBeAR’s sense is the Committee thinks macro > micro. So, that means they will most likely value the “full body of FCS work, over the entire season” more than a single 1-score game 4 weeks ago.

And, that brings FUBeAR to another observation. From the discussion he’s been reading among WCU, Chatt, and (previously) ETSU fans, there seems to be a sense that the Committee will be trying to look at the SoCon in a micro way to select the best 2nd Playoff Team. They ain’t.

WCU & Chatt are now like those grocery store lobsters sitting in a big tank with about 12-15 other FCS lobsters. Their SoCon logos are on the bottoms of their shells. Their records, strength of schedules, etc. will be compared with all of the other lobsters in the tank, not just each other’s, to see which crustacean gets to go to dinner.

Finally, Chatt’s AD is on the Committee. WCU’s is not.

FUBeAR thinks the SoCon has screwed itself into being a 1 bid league with 4 or 5 (gotta consider Samford’s victories over Mercer, Chatt, and, possibly, over WCU) Playoff quality Teams this season. Reality sux.

But…who knows…maybe FUBeAR will find himself properly motivated to lift the curse and allow WCU to sneak their Kitty/Lobster claws into the Playoffs.

[Mocs123]

I'm not saying we deserve to go - we crapped the bed on Saturday, but if UTC, WCU, or ETSU had "MVFC" on their lobster shells, they'd be going to the playoffs (assuming they win Saturday).

[gofurman]

Hate it for SoCon. Probably just Mercer…. Fuels the national narrative.

anyway.

power rankings. Some Mercer fan said Furman was worst. That doesn’t hold up anymore. Sure VMI won H2H over Furman. but Furman beat Citadel and ETSU. should Furman be ranked ahead of ETSU? NO. I’m objective. It’s body of work

power rankings

Mercer. 9 wins
————
Western. 6 win
Chatt 6 win
ETSU. 6 win
————
samford. 4 win. **. Missing a game due to Helene
Citadel. 5 win
Woff. 5 win
————
Furman. 3 wins. **. Missing a game due to Helene
————
VMI. 1 win

[FUBeAR]

I'm not saying we deserve to go - we crapped the bed on Saturday, but if UTC, WCU, or ETSU had "MVFC" on their lobster shells, they'd be going to the playoffs (assuming they win Saturday).
The MVFC/Big Sky/CAA tank is in a white tablecloth restaurant.

You’re a grocery store tank lobster.

[Catamount87]

Had we not crapped the field when we played Campbell... Then again, the SoCon has a history of teams crapping out at least one game and screwing themselves over. We sure seem to have our fair share of that. ***Looking that the VMI game last year***

[Mocs123]

UTC is the king of late season collapses.

It looked like we were going to go to the playoffs in 2019 - lost final game of the season to VMI
It looked like we were going to get a seed and then dropped our final two games to Mercer and The Citadel
It looked like we were going to the playoffs in 2022 -maybe even a seed and drop our last to games to Samford and WCU
Now, in 2024 we looked like we were going to the playoffs and drop a game to Samford that probably puts us out of the mix.

We were favored in all of those games except the Samford game in 2022.

If you're a mediocre SoCon team, you want to see the Mocs on your schedule in November.

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games on Saturday, 11/23. Kickoff times shown are ET.



AWAY TEAM
HOME TEAM
TIME
Future News


ETSU
VMI

12P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55478_VMI-vs-ETSU_20241123/stats/)




Chattanooga
Austin Peay

1P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55512_PEAY-vs-CHAT_20241123/stats/)




Furman
Mercer

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55532_MER-vs-FUR_20241123/stats/)




Western Carolina
Samford

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55522_SAM-vs-WCU_20241123/stats/)




The Citadel
Clemson

3:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52399_CLEM-vs-CIT_20241123/stats/)




Wofford
South Carolina

4P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52081_SC-vs-WOF_20241123/stats/)





FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Rankings



FUBeAR’s
Power Rank


SoCon
Team


Massey Projected Overall
Record


Massey Projected SoCon
Record


Massey Projected SoCon
Win %


Massey Projected SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon
W/L
Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

7-5


5-3


0.625


3

Losses to Mercer, WCU, Samford



3

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

7-5


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Mercer, ETSU



4

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

7-5


5-3


0.625


3

Losses to Chatt, Mercer, Furman



5

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

4-7


3-4


0.429


5

Wins over VMI, Mercer, Chatt



6

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

5-7


3-5


0.375


6

Wins over VMI, Samford, Wofford



7

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

5-7


3-5


0.375


6

Wins over VMI, Samford, Furman



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)

1-11


1-7


0.125


9

Win over Furman



















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

3-8


2-5


0.286


8

Win over CIT, ETSU



Only 1 small break from SCIENCE.

When we are contemplating the effects of a Curse on outcomes, it’s difficult to assume SCIENCE enjoys primacy over the Dark Arts…so, while Massey is projecting a 1 point Catamount Win over the HomewoodHounds, FUBeAR knows there are outside forces that may, or may not, exert influence on that outcome.

Thus, FUBeAR is conjuring up his rankings with the SoftLeatherShoeWearingBirds ahead of the LilacLionsOfTheMountains, as his sole exception to Mr. Massey’s SCIENCE.

[The Cats]

When we are contemplating the effects of a Curse on outcomes, it’s difficult to assume SCIENCE enjoys primacy over the Dark Arts…so, while Massey is projecting a 1 point Catamount Win over the HomewoodHounds, FUBeAR knows there are outside forces that may, or may not, exert influence on that outcome.

Thus, FUBeAR is conjuring up his rankings with the SoftLeatherShoeWearingBirds ahead of the LilacLionsOfTheMountains, as his sole exception to Mr. Massey’s SCIENCE.

Foosbear is as full of stuffing, as a Thanksgiving turkey.... However, it matters not what the Cats do next Saturday, win or lose, their season will be concluded. Not a share of the SoCon crown, and no at large berth to the playoffs.

The SoCon is now a one bid league this season, due to the large numbers of teams in the MFFC, the Big Sky and especially the CAA. The SoCon continues to cannibalize it's playoff hopes each season, and continues to get no respect nationally because of this... while the large conferences pad their w/l records with wins from the lower half of their conference schedules, and top team not playing each other.

Maybe in twenty or thirty more years the SoCon will wise up and add members...

[ElCid]

Foosbear is as full of stuffing, as a Thanksgiving turkey.... However, it matters not what the Cats do next Saturday, win or lose, their season will be concluded. Not a share of the SoCon crown, and no at large berth to the playoffs.

The SoCon is now a one bid league this season, due to the large numbers of teams in the MFFC, the Big Sky and especially the CAA. The SoCon continues to cannibalize it's playoff hopes each season, and continues to get no respect nationally because of this... while the large conferences pad their w/l records with wins from the lower half of their conference schedules, and top team not playing each other.

Maybe in twenty or thirty more years the SoCon will wise up and add members...

It really is obvious that those three have a huge advantage is not having to play their top teams. So a mediocre middling team in those confs can look much better, per their record, as a result.

A perfect example, NAU. Not picking on them. They are a good team, but they illustrate the issue. They didn't have to play Davis or Montana St. So they might have a "padded" stealth record. Their best win is against a 3-8 Sac St team. Or maybe against E Washington if they win. Or how about Ill St. They skated by not playing either SD school. Their best win is a floundering 3-8 S Ill team. Look at NH. They missed Delaware and Richmond, and even W&M. They do have a not bad best win against SB. Speaking of which, they missed Delaware and Richmond as well.

I'm not for increasing the SOCON size just to make our records look better, but this issue is very obvious.

[Catamount87]

It is sounding as if FUBeAR is planning on practicing some voodoo.

[wcugrad95]

I will jump on this bandwagon, too. It is not simply that we have to play all the teams in our conference (good and bad), but it is that we have to play all of them every single year. We all know exactly who the other team is, what they do, what their tendencies are, etc. So seldom do you see anybody truly sneak up on somebody. So it is obvious to me that since the SOCON does this to each other every single year, every league win means it is well-earned regardless of if it is an upset of a higher-ranked team or if it is simply the top team beating the bottom one.

Nobody would be totally shocked if Montana figured out a way to beat Montana State this week because it is a rivalry game and the teams know each other so well. That is almost every week in the SOCON.

[FUBeAR]

It is sounding as if FUBeAR is planning on practicing some voodoo.
FUBeAR is authorized, by virtue of his attendance at & DEFENSIVE participation in 2 acts of violent vandalism / attempted vandalism (the latter of which included an assault with a deadly weapon) committed by a riotous mob of WCU fans in ‘83 & ‘84 at Paladin Stadium, to lift the “Paladin Stadium Goalpost Vandalism Karmic Curse of ‘83” which has prevented WCU from making the Playoffs since the 1st heinous transgression of their lawless fans and extended their infinite futility in trying to win a SoCon Football Championship.

Earlier this season, FUBeAR was thinking the time had come to remove this yoke of sadness from Catamount Nation, but as previously stated, Coach Bell’s lack of even a shred of humility at the end of the Furman game (at the very scene of the prior crimes) and following a double-digit loss to Mercer caused FUBeAR to decide to defer taking that benevolent action.

FUBeAR has since made it known that with WCU in position to win their 1st ever SoCon Football Championship and possibly in contention for a Playoff bid, he is open to reconsidering his deferral and removing the curse.

That gracious acknowledgement has only been met, so far, with counterproductive insults and personal attacks, yet FUBeAR, ever-forgiving and always open-minded, has not yet decided whether or not to leave the curse in place.

What do you think FUBeAR should decide? What would you decide if you had the power FUBeAR has?

[wcugrad95]

FUBeAR should pull hard for WCU and his beloved Paladins this Saturday and will them to wins. Then he should fight off the notion that with a loss the Bears shouldn't be seeded and use his powers to ensure that the SOCON co-champions are both in the FCS playoffs and Mercer still gets a bye.

With that kind of power, that is what I would do.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR should pull hard for WCU and his beloved Paladins this Saturday and will them to wins. Then he should fight off the notion that with a loss the Bears shouldn't be seeded and use his powers to ensure that the SOCON co-champions are both in the FCS playoffs and Mercer still gets a bye.

With that kind of power, that is what I would do.
Now that sounds completely sane & logical. Definitely worth considering.

But…should there be some level of contrition & humility involved?

It seems as if that’s usually a part of such a thing as lifting a 40+ year curse. No?

[SU DOG]

While I certainly agree with the sentiments expressed about SoCon Teams being disrespected for Playoffs and the advantages some conferences have, I do not think that is the total story. Samford and Furman had no possible goals to reach for winning Saturday. It was the responsibility of UTC and ETSU to prepare and use a possible Playoff incentive to win those games. Yeah the underdogs knew what their opponents would do but not anymore than the staffs of UTC and ETSU should have known about their opponents' tendencies. Add to that the fact that both these favorites were playing at home. I really hope UTC makes the Playoffs and that this loss will wake them up. The stats from that game don't even make sense and show what a blowout it really was and they also show that the Mocs were sleep walking. I also hope that Western will come to Homewood with incentive to win and that our older players will also be motivated knowing this is their last game in our beautiful stadium. Hopefully we can make it interesting and I somehow believe it will be.

[The Cats]

It really is obvious that those three have a huge advantage is not having to play their top teams. So a mediocre middling team in those confs can look much better, per their record, as a result.

A perfect example, NAU. Not picking on them. They are a good team, but they illustrate the issue. They didn't have to play Davis or Montana St. So they might have a "padded" stealth record. Their best win is against a 3-8 Sac St team. Or maybe against E Washington if they win. Or how about Ill St. They skated by not playing either SD school. Their best win is a floundering 3-8 S Ill team. Look at NH. They missed Delaware and Richmond, and even W&M. They do have a not bad best win against SB. Speaking of which, they missed Delaware and Richmond as well.

I'm not for increasing the SOCON size just to make our records look better, but this issue is very obvious.

What is downright insulting is that the CAA may get as many as 5 teams in the playoffs, based off their win/loss records, how can this be? The SoCon will probably get one team, the auto bid, Mercer.

[wcugrad95]

Now that sounds completely sane & logical. Definitely worth considering.

But…should there be some level of contrition & humility involved?

It seems as if that’s usually a part of such a thing as lifting a 40+ year curse. No?

I think there has been plenty of humility given by WCU fans for these past 40 years :-)

[FUBeAR]

I think there has been plenty of humility given by WCU fans for these past 40 years :-)
Being repeatedly unwillingly humbled is not the same as voluntarily expressing humility and demonstrating sincere contrition.

FUBeAR’s current sense is that WCU fans of today seem to take a good measure of pleasure in and are actually prideful with regard to the violent felonies committed by their compatriots of that era. Kinda like the bellhops take great pride in having fired the 1st shots in a war that resulted in more American casualties than all other wars before or since…combined.

[Reign of Terrier]

Folks, Wofford was at or near the top of the socon for like 9 of 13 seasons (2007-2019) and it bugs me that other teams can't get it together for a full season.

The FCS is very weird in that some programs (in the socon, Wofford and Furman, even though the former has been down for 5 years) just have mojo that when they are good they don't typically torpedo their season with a bad showing. Really, since 2014, Mercer is probably the only team to not do that. Heck, even the Citadel is either playoff worthy or forgettable. But Western, UTC, Samford, and I guess maybe ETSU really don't have that mojo yet.

When I'm critical of teams like Western or Samford is really because I want them to be good enough to where when we lose to them it doesn't look so bad. Everyone having their **** together hurts no one.

[ElCid]

Folks, Wofford was at or near the top of the socon for like 9 of 13 seasons (2007-2019) and it bugs me that other teams can't get it together for a full season.

The FCS is very weird in that some programs (in the socon, Wofford and Furman, even though the former has been down for 5 years) just have mojo that when they are good they don't typically torpedo their season with a bad showing. Really, since 2014, Mercer is probably the only team to not do that. Heck, even the Citadel is either playoff worthy or forgettable. But Western, UTC, Samford, and I guess maybe ETSU really don't have that mojo yet.

When I'm critical of teams like Western or Samford is really because I want them to be good enough to where when we lose to them it doesn't look so bad. Everyone having their **** together hurts no one.

Huh? You are mostly right, but go check 2016. My Bulldogs went 8-0, 10-1 with only an FBS loss and had no self destruct game. That came in the playoffs. LOL. So your caveat was correct, but when did Mercer not at least try to semi self destruct? They probably were playing with fire losing to Sanford this year. They could have been looking at a top 4 seed. Sure it hasn't irreversibly damaged them, but they still have another game. Lose it and they might lose their top 8 seed.

[The Cats]

Folks, Wofford was at or near the top of the socon for like 9 of 13 seasons (2007-2019) and it bugs me that other teams can't get it together for a full season.

The FCS is very weird in that some programs (in the socon, Wofford and Furman, even though the former has been down for 5 years) just have mojo that when they are good they don't typically torpedo their season with a bad showing. Really, since 2014, Mercer is probably the only team to not do that. Heck, even the Citadel is either playoff worthy or forgettable. But Western, UTC, Samford, and I guess maybe ETSU really don't have that mojo yet.

When I'm critical of teams like Western or Samford is really because I want them to be good enough to where when we lose to them it doesn't look so bad. Everyone having their **** together hurts no one.

I think WCU, Chattanooga, ETSU and Samford could give a flip how you think it looks when you lose to one of us, which has become a regular occurance the last few years, as you know it's not 2007-2019 any more....

[Reign of Terrier]

Huh? You are mostly right, but go check 2016. My Bulldogs went 8-0, 10-1 with only an FBS loss and had no self destruct game. That came in the playoffs. LOL. So your caveat was correct, but when did Mercer not at least try to semi self destruct? They probably were playing with fire losing to Sanford this year. They could have been looking at a top 4 seed. Sure it hasn't irreversibly damaged them, but they still have another game. Lose it and they might lose their top 8 seed.

I wouldn’t say The Citadel losing in the playoffs was a self-destruction. That year Wofford was really good, but learning how to win again (after a 3 year hiatus from the playoffs). If anything the Citadel that year was pretty clutch. On the top of my head, they beat Samford, Wofford, and Chattanooga (the other 3 playoff teams) in a close game/OT. Wofford led in the regular season game, it was the infamous pitch 6 game.

Regardless, I guess another way of putting it is that if wofford, Furman or the Citadel are like 5-0 in conference play or on a collision course to the playoffs I don’t expect them to lose a headscratcher later in the season, but I can’t say the same for Chattanooga, ETSU, Samford, or Western.

I wouldn’t say Mercer losing to Samford is a collapse, simply because it happened mid-season, Samford does weird **** like that all the time (they basically did it to Wofford for like a decade), and it didn’t alter the playoff hunt. I guess another way to make this post succinct is the “SC 3” teams don’t typically blow their chance of making the playoffs with silly losses, though they quite often ruin their seeding. Whereas these other team blow their playoff chances AND seeding on various occasions. I have no explanation for it other that the vibes-based “mojo”.


I think WCU, Chattanooga, ETSU and Samford could give a flip how you think it looks when you lose to one of us, which has become a regular occurance the last few years, as you know it's not 2007-2019 any more....

“No guys, really I don’t care, that’s why I have to tell people I don’t care. Every time.”

Oh my god, shut up you are so whiney.

I root for basically the entire SoCon (even Furman) to be successful. I basically say that with the casual observation that there’s something weird that a couple teams can’t get it together, and it’s kind of heartbreaking, and your insecure loser ass self can’t take a minor gesture of solidarity as a W.

Imagine that you root for a losing team for generations and even go on message board to talk about your loser team and when someone says “I hate it when your team loses and wish they would be successful if my team isn’t” your loser ass self says “nah, **** this guy.”

Absolute clown show, miserable existence. Delete your account xlolx

[Catamount87]

FUBeAR is authorized, by virtue of his attendance at & DEFENSIVE participation in 2 acts of violent vandalism / attempted vandalism (the latter of which included an assault with a deadly weapon) committed by a riotous mob of WCU fans in ‘83 & ‘84 at Paladin Stadium, to lift the “Paladin Stadium Goalpost Vandalism Karmic Curse of ‘83” which has prevented WCU from making the Playoffs since the 1st heinous transgression of their lawless fans and extended their infinite futility in trying to win a SoCon Football Championship.

Earlier this season, FUBeAR was thinking the time had come to remove this yoke of sadness from Catamount Nation, but as previously stated, Coach Bell’s lack of even a shred of humility at the end of the Furman game (at the very scene of the prior crimes) and following a double-digit loss to Mercer caused FUBeAR to decide to defer taking that benevolent action.

FUBeAR has since made it known that with WCU in position to win their 1st ever SoCon Football Championship and possibly in contention for a Playoff bid, he is open to reconsidering his deferral and removing the curse.

That gracious acknowledgement has only been met, so far, with counterproductive insults and personal attacks, yet FUBeAR, ever-forgiving and always open-minded, has not yet decided whether or not to leave the curse in place.

What do you think FUBeAR should decide? What would you decide if you had the power FUBeAR has?


33534

[FUBeAR]

33534FUBeAR doesn’t need to let “it” go.

Catamount Nation needs FUBeAR (or another of the very few still-living (RIP JB34) authorized PSGVKC83 curse-keepers) to let THEM go.

The time is nigh…and ever-fleeting.

[The Cats]

I wouldn’t say The Citadel losing in the playoffs was a self-destruction. That year Wofford was really good, but learning how to win again (after a 3 year hiatus from the playoffs). If anything the Citadel that year was pretty clutch. On the top of my head, they beat Samford, Wofford, and Chattanooga (the other 3 playoff teams) in a close game/OT. Wofford led in the regular season game, it was the infamous pitch 6 game.

Regardless, I guess another way of putting it is that if wofford, Furman or the Citadel are like 5-0 in conference play or on a collision course to the playoffs I don’t expect them to lose a headscratcher later in the season, but I can’t say the same for Chattanooga, ETSU, Samford, or Western.

I wouldn’t say Mercer losing to Samford is a collapse, simply because it happened mid-season, Samford does weird **** like that all the time (they basically did it to Wofford for like a decade), and it didn’t alter the playoff hunt. I guess another way to make this post succinct is the “SC 3” teams don’t typically blow their chance of making the playoffs with silly losses, though they quite often ruin their seeding. Whereas these other team blow their playoff chances AND seeding on various occasions. I have no explanation for it other that the vibes-based “mojo”.



“No guys, really I don’t care, that’s why I have to tell people I don’t care. Every time.”

Oh my god, shut up you are so whiney.

I root for basically the entire SoCon (even Furman) to be successful. I basically say that with the casual observation that there’s something weird that a couple teams can’t get it together, and it’s kind of heartbreaking, and your insecure loser ass self can’t take a minor gesture of solidarity as a W.

Imagine that you root for a losing team for generations and even go on message board to talk about your loser team and when someone says “I hate it when your team loses and wish they would be successful if my team isn’t” your loser ass self says “nah, **** this guy.”

Absolute clown show, miserable existence. Delete your account xlolx

2024 - 5-6 overall, 3-5 conference
2023 - 2-9 overall, 2-6 conference
2022 - 3-8 overall, 3-8 conference
2021 - 1-10 overall, 0-8 conference
2020 - 1-4 overall, 1-4 conference

and you're embarrassed when WCU, Chattanooga, ETSU or Samford beats you? give me a break, Wofford's glory days are gone, along with their sugar daddy... maybe you should go back into hibernation
.

[Reign of Terrier]

2024 - 5-6 overall, 3-5 conference
2023 - 2-9 overall, 2-6 conference
2022 - 3-8 overall, 3-8 conference
2021 - 1-10 overall, 0-8 conference
2020 - 1-4 overall, 1-4 conference

and you're embarrassed when WCU, Chattanooga, ETSU or Samford beats you? give me a break, Wofford's glory days are gone, along with their sugar daddy... maybe you should go back into hibernation
.

Wofford has about as many playoff wins in the last decade than all of these combined, so yeah it is embarrassing. In fact, I go so far to say that there’s no such thing as a good season for Wofford so long as we lose to Western. One just never happened. Same with ETSU and Chattanooga, but at least they have a playoff win since I’ve been living on this earth.

The difference between me and you is not that the success of our teams, but I use these platforms to enhance my experience, and the experience of others, watching the great game of FCS football. If it fails to that for myself and others, I log off. That’s not unhealthy, that’s being normal. I have major respect for WCU/VMI and other fans because y’all can watch all the losing and still be plugged in. Having said that, given that my previous comment talking smack toward you got more rep for it than anything I’ve said recently, I think it’s more likely you need to go into a hibernation. Take the lead from your team and quit being miserable. Get a life, and stop sucking.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR’s Fiery Fun Take for today…

Furman’s Trey Hedden’s QB rating is better than the QB rating of the Pre-Season SoCon OPOY (Gonzales), who was also the Pre-Season 1st Team QB.

Hedden’s QB rating is also better than the 2nd Team Pre-Season All SoCon QB (Artopoeus).

The only SoCon QB with a better QB rating than Hedden is Samford’s QB (Crittendon), which some would opine is primarily a system-driven annual eventuality, regardless of who is plugged into the Samford QB slot.

Thus, a legitimate argument can be logically made that Furman’s True Freshman, Trey Hedden, in 2024, is the best QB in the SoCon.


We can all agree on this, right?







Rank


1

Player


Quincy Crittendon

Team


Samford
# of
Games

10
Comp’s


257
Att’s


359
Comp
%

71.6
Yd’s


2486
TD’s


17
INT’s


9
Yds
/Comp

6.9
YPG


248.6
QB
Rating

140.4


2
Trey Hedden
Furman
9
131
207
63.3
1557
12
8
7.5
173.0
137.9


3
Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
8
125
216
57.9
1800
9
5
8.3
225.0
137.0


4
Cole Gonzales
Western Carolina
8
205
332
61.7
2543
12
7
7.7
317.9
133.8


5
Amari Odom
Wofford
7
102
183
55.7
1350
6
6
7.4
192.9
122.0


6
Johnathan Bennett
The Citadel
11
119
229
52.0
1604
7
7
7.0
145.8
114.8


7
Jaylen King
East Tennessee
10
116
221
52.5
1536
9
11
7.0
153.6
114.4

[FootballFan93]

FUBeAR’s Fiery Fun Take for today…

Furman’s Trey Hedden’s QB rating is better than the QB rating of the Pre-Season SoCon OPOY (Gonzales), who was also the Pre-Season 1st Team QB.

Hedden’s QB rating is also better than the 2nd Team Pre-Season All SoCon QB (Artopoeus).

The only SoCon QB with a better QB rating than Hedden is Samford’s QB (Crittendon), which some would opine is primarily a system-driven annual eventuality, regardless of who is plugged into the Samford QB slot.

Thus, a legitimate argument can be logically made that Furman’s True Freshman, Trey Hedden, in 2024, is the best QB in the SoCon.


We can all agree on this, right?







Rank


1

Player


Quincy Crittendon

Team


Samford
# of
Games

10
Comp’s


257
Att’s


359
Comp
%

71.6
Yd’s


2486
TD’s


17
INT’s


9
Yds
/Comp

6.9
YPG


248.6
QB
Rating

140.4


2
Trey Hedden
Furman
9
131
207
63.3
1557
12
8
7.5
173.0
137.9


3
Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
8
125
216
57.9
1800
9
5
8.3
225.0
137.0


4
Cole Gonzales
Western Carolina
8
205
332
61.7
2543
12
7
7.7
317.9
133.8


5
Amari Odom
Wofford
7
102
183
55.7
1350
6
6
7.4
192.9
122.0


6
Johnathan Bennett
The Citadel
11
119
229
52.0
1604
7
7
7.0
145.8
114.8


7
Jaylen King
East Tennessee
10
116
221
52.5
1536
9
11
7.0
153.6
114.4





No.

[FUBeAR]

No.
1 post
2 letters & a punctuation mark.

Coach Billy S. once declared that brevity is the soul of wit.

Or…maybe he meant to say Whitt. xsmiley_wix


WELCOME MERCER FAN!

We could use more of you guys around these parts!

[wcugrad95]

Agree with FootballFan93. Good and simple "no" as the answer.

But pulling from the same place FUBeAR pulled from, I'll post these filtered to only look at SOCON games:



Rank
Player
Team
# of Games
Comp's
Att's
Comp %
Yd's
TD's
INT's
Yds / Comp
YPG
QB Rating


1
Taron Dickens
WCU
5
89
121
73.6
990
9
2
8.2
198
163.5


2
Cole Gonzales
WCU
4
117
179
65.4
1566
8
2
8.7
391.5
151.4


3
Quincy Crittendon
Samford
6
170
230
73.9
1685
13
6
7.3
280.8
148.9


4
Trey Hedden
Furman
5
82
120
68.3
806
7
5
6.7
161.2
135.7


5
Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
5
76
138
55.1
1031
3
2
7.5
206.2
122.1


6
Johnathan Bennett
Citadel
8
87
172
50.6
1174
5
6
6.8
146.8
110.5


7
Jaylen King
ETSU
6
67
132
50.8
882
4
10
6.7
147
101.



The SOCON QB of the Year should just be "whoever is playing for WCU" based on the numbers. In confernece games, that is 17 TDs and only 4 INTs, to go along with 2556 yards (365/game). The 2 QBs also have 3 additional rushing TDs in the 7 league games so far. I know Cole had the crazy game against Furman, but averaging nearly 400 yards passing means he had some other big days, too.

We lost 2 games and aren't going to win the conference, but hard to argue against those numbers on a team who is going to finish no worse than tied for 2nd (and possibly alone in 2nd place). If Dickens figures out a way to beat Samford, I'd think he would have serious consideration for Freshman of the Year when only playing in 1/2 the league games.

[ElCid]

FUBeAR’s Fiery Fun Take for today…

Furman’s Trey Hedden’s QB rating is better than the QB rating of the Pre-Season SoCon OPOY (Gonzales), who was also the Pre-Season 1st Team QB.

Hedden’s QB rating is also better than the 2nd Team Pre-Season All SoCon QB (Artopoeus).

The only SoCon QB with a better QB rating than Hedden is Samford’s QB (Crittendon), which some would opine is primarily a system-driven annual eventuality, regardless of who is plugged into the Samford QB slot.

Thus, a legitimate argument can be logically made that Furman’s True Freshman, Trey Hedden, in 2024, is the best QB in the SoCon.


We can all agree on this, right?







Rank


1

Player


Quincy Crittendon

Team


Samford
# of
Games

10
Comp’s


257
Att’s


359
Comp
%

71.6
Yd’s


2486
TD’s


17
INT’s


9
Yds
/Comp

6.9
YPG


248.6
QB
Rating

140.4


2
Trey Hedden
Furman
9
131
207
63.3
1557
12
8
7.5
173.0
137.9


3
Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
8
125
216
57.9
1800
9
5
8.3
225.0
137.0


4
Cole Gonzales
Western Carolina
8
205
332
61.7
2543
12
7
7.7
317.9
133.8


5
Amari Odom
Wofford
7
102
183
55.7
1350
6
6
7.4
192.9
122.0


6
Johnathan Bennett
The Citadel
11
119
229
52.0
1604
7
7
7.0
145.8
114.8


7
Jaylen King
East Tennessee
10
116
221
52.5
1536
9
11
7.0
153.6
114.4





Pretty sure you left out the most important stat...W/L. When those completions happen, when those TD passes happen, when those INTs happen are crucial. You know, because there isn't a ring for best QB rating. Is there? Sure it's nice to have a great QB, but it's got to translate into the only critical result. That isn't always the case.

[FUBeAR]

Agree with FootballFan93. Good and simple "no" as the answer.

But pulling from the same place FUBeAR pulled from, I'll post these filtered to only look at SOCON games:



Rank
Player
Team
# of Games
Comp's
Att's
Comp %
Yd's
TD's
INT's
Yds / Comp
YPG
QB Rating


1
Taron Dickens
WCU
5
89
121
73.6
990
9
2
8.2
198
163.5


2
Cole Gonzales
WCU
4
117
179
65.4
1566
8
2
8.7
391.5
151.4


3
Quincy Crittendon
Samford
6
170
230
73.9
1685
13
6
7.3
280.8
148.9


4
Trey Hedden
Furman
5
82
120
68.3
806
7
5
6.7
161.2
135.7


5
Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
5
76
138
55.1
1031
3
2
7.5
206.2
122.1


6
Johnathan Bennett
Citadel
8
87
172
50.6
1174
5
6
6.8
146.8
110.5


7
Jaylen King
ETSU
6
67
132
50.8
882
4
10
6.7
147
101.



The SOCON QB of the Year should just be "whoever is playing for WCU" based on the numbers. In confernece games, that is 17 TDs and only 4 INTs, to go along with 2556 yards (365/game). The 2 QBs also have 3 additional rushing TDs in the 7 league games so far. I know Cole had the crazy game against Furman, but averaging nearly 400 yards passing means he had some other big days, too.

We lost 2 games and aren't going to win the conference, but hard to argue against those numbers on a team who is going to finish no worse than tied for 2nd (and possibly alone in 2nd place). If Dickens figures out a way to beat Samford, I'd think he would have serious consideration for Freshman of the Year when only playing in 1/2 the league games.
Perhaps we should only include games when the relative humidity was above or below a certain percent or maybe we should pick a latitude and only count games above or below that. Whatever 95 prefers.

Look, we’re over 90% thru the season and the range of Strengths of Schedules (which FUBeAR believes is voodoo math anyway) among SoCon Teams has continually narrowed and is, now, relatively, insignificant - no SoCon Team is more than 20 spots above of below the mean SoCon SoS Rank in Massey. Using Conference-only games at this points does add an, albeit incomplete, “apples-to-apples” upside, but it eliminates up to a full 1/3rd of a Player’s results without providing enough ‘normalization’ to justify doing so.

And…if you notice anything about FUBeAR’s ‘work’ with stats, he is always trying to get to ‘1 number’ to assess / compare. Solving multi-variable problems in “Remedial Calculus for Econ Majors” still gives FUBeAR PTSD flare-ups. So…. KISS me, please.

QB Ranking has been developed to be that “1 number” and enables FUBeAR to get his KISS.

[FUBeAR]

Pretty sure you left out the most important stat...W/L. When those completions happen, when those TD passes happen, when those INTs happen are crucial. You know, because there isn't a ring for best QB rating. Is there? Sure it's nice to have a great QB, but it's got to translate into the only critical result. That isn't always the case.
So, you’re advocating for the elimination of all individual awards and honors then?

Or, will you allow those awards, but only for the Players that earn/receive Championship rings?

[ElCid]

So, you’re advocating for the elimination of all individual awards and honors then?

Or, will you allow those awards, but only for the Players that earn/receive Championship rings?

No that's fine, but it needs to be tempered with actual effectiveness. As it is, SOS plays a huge role on the stats for most positions. It's obviously unworkable so raw stats is all you can deal with. So it doesn't matter if you play the best teams or the Weak Sisters of Mercy. So there is no alternate solution. But people know.

[FUBeAR]

No that's fine, but it needs to be tempered with actual effectiveness. As it is, SOS plays a huge role on the stats for most positions. It's obviously unworkable so raw stats is all you can deal with. So it doesn't matter if you play the best teams or the Weak Sisters of Mercy. So there is no alternate solution. But people know.
SoS???

No SoCon Team’s SoS is more than 20 slots above or below the Avg Rank for all SoCon Teams. That’s a tight range. It’s not like Woffy plays in the SEC & Samford plays D3, y’know.

On your prior ‘objection,’ FUBeAR contends that W’s & L’s are also fairly insignificant for 1 year IntraConference Awards. They might be significant for the Heisman or for a Hall of Fame QB nominee, but not really for a short-term / narrow field kind of honor. - the one FUBeaR outlined - Best QB in the SoCon (narrow field) this season (short term).

[Reign of Terrier]

No.
I like this guy xlolx

[BearDownMU]

I'm gonna channel my inner FUBeAR right here.

If Whitt Newbauer had taken every snap for Mercer this year (as most of us agree, in hindsight, he should have) he makes fellow true freshmen Hedden look pedestrian.

Mercer has thrown 290 passes this year. If Whitt had gotten all of those and performed at the same ratios, he'd look something like this. (also note he took zero snaps against PC or Bethune.)



Rank
Player
Team
# of Games
Comp's
Att's
Comp %
Yd's
TD's
INT's
Yds / Comp
YPG
QB Rating


1
Whitt Newbauer
MU
10
167
290
57.52
2550
18
5
15.3
255
165.67



And if it's about wins the only game he's lost as the full time QB is RedElephantEbbs&Flows of Tuscaloosa.

Soooo, how was my FUBeAR impression? lol

[wcugrad95]

Perhaps we should only include games when the relative humidity was above or below a certain percent or maybe we should pick a latitude and only count games above or below that. Whatever 95 prefers.

Look, we’re over 90% thru the season and the range of Strengths of Schedules (which FUBeAR believes is voodoo math anyway) among SoCon Teams has continually narrowed and is, now, relatively, insignificant - no SoCon Team is more than 20 spots above of below the mean SoCon SoS Rank in Massey. Using Conference-only games at this points does add an, albeit incomplete, “apples-to-apples” upside, but it eliminates up to a full 1/3rd of a Player’s results without providing enough ‘normalization’ to justify doing so.

And…if you notice anything about FUBeAR’s ‘work’ with stats, he is always trying to get to ‘1 number’ to assess / compare. Solving multi-variable problems in “Remedial Calculus for Econ Majors” still gives FUBeAR PTSD flare-ups. So…. KISS me, please.

QB Ranking has been developed to be that “1 number” and enables FUBeAR to get his KISS.


I looked at the SOCON-only games because if we are trying to identify the top offensive player (or in this case - top QB) within the league, seems like concentrating on what they did within the conference against the same teams makes the most sense. There is no Mercer QB on the list, but as BearDown posited Newbauer deserves at least a mention trying to determine one of the best QBs in those SOCON games.

[FUBeAR]

I'm gonna channel my inner FUBeAR right here.

If Whitt Newbauer had taken every snap for Mercer this year (as most of us agree, in hindsight, he should have) he makes fellow true freshmen Hedden look pedestrian.

Mercer has thrown 290 passes this year. If Whitt had gotten all of those and performed at the same ratios, he'd look something like this. (also note he took zero snaps against PC or Bethune.)



Rank
Player
Team
# of Games
Comp's
Att's
Comp %
Yd's
TD's
INT's
Yds / Comp
YPG
QB Rating


1
Whitt Newbauer
MU
10
167
290
57.52
2550
18
5
15.3
255
165.67



And if it's about wins the only game he's lost as the full time QB is RedElephantEbbs&Flows of Tuscaloosa.

Soooo, how was my FUBeAR impression? lol
https://content.presentermedia.com/content/animsp/00018000/18855/push_2_of_5_stars_md_nwm_v2.gif

…but those extrapolated numbers for Newbauer are Five Star worthy!

That QB Rating would put him at #5 in FCS.

https://twitter.com/ncaa_fcs/status/1857886352295022964

[FUBeAR]

Lots of SoCon peeps on the just-released South Carolina Football Hall of Fame Nominee ballot.

FUBeAR voted for Furman LEGENDS - Coach Bobby Johnson, Coach Robbie Caldwell, LB Orlando Ruff, and bellhop great QB, Jack Douglas, on the Modern Day Ballot.

FUBeAR voted for the best man to ever walk the home sidelines in Whitmire Stadium as the Catamounts’ Head Coach, Bob (it ain’t his curse) Waters, on the Legacy Ballot.

Can only vote for 4 on the Modern Day Ballot - If FUBeAR could have voted for more, he would have also selected…

WCU DL - Clyde Simmons
Appy QB - Armanti Edwards
Appy LB - Dexter Coakley
Woffy RB - Eric Breitenstein
bellhop LB - Brian Ruff

There may be other SC natives with SoCon ties, but FUBeAR can’t see the detailed bios now that he has voted.


GO VOTE HERE - https://createsend.com/t/i-DF03F0C4FA93C8E22540EF23F30FEDED

[FUBeAR]

Chattanooga, WCU, ETSU, and SoCon fans need to be big fans of the Colonels tonight!

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SE LA
(6 - 5)


Today
7:00 PM

Nicholls
(4 - 7)

[wcugrad95]

Go Nichols!!! There are a ton of 6 and 7 win teams across the country - many of whom played some rather suspect schedules to get their winning records. So I am a fan of basically ALL the teams playing against them except I am a big fan of all the SOCON 6-win teams. If we get a 2nd SOCON team in it will be dependent on us having more teams with winning records, and losses by UTC, ETSU, or WCU will not help any of us.

[FUBeAR]

Seems relevant…


The 2024 season has been a struggle for Furman (3-7, 2-4 SoCon) and the number of young players cast into starting roles. All told…

24 Paladins have made career starting debuts this season, and …
30 of the squad's current 44-member offense and defense two-deep are either freshmen or sophomores.

A year ago, when Furman went 10-3 and won the SoCon title, …

35 of the Paladins' top 44 players possessed junior, senior, or graduate level experience.

[wcugrad95]

Go Paladins, too!

It would be such a Western thing to somehow find our way into a SOCON co-championship and not make the playoffs :)

That being said, I'd take our first ever conference title over the playoffs, but would hold out hope that a 7-win season against a pretty decent schedule and being co-champions could pull some weight. Of course, the Cats have to beat Samford for anything else to matter.

[FootballFan93]

Of course, the Cats have to beat Samford for anything else to matter.

AND Furman would have to beat Mercer AT Mercer. We'll see.

[FUBeAR]

Go Paladins, too!

It would be such a Western thing to somehow find our way into a SOCON co-championship and not make the playoffs :)

That being said, I'd take our first ever conference title over the playoffs, but would hold out hope that a 7-win season against a pretty decent schedule and being co-champions could pull some weight. Of course, the Cats have to beat Samford for anything else to matter.
FUBeAR, most benevolently, remains open-minded to considering clemency, but time is running very short…

https://media.tenor.com/2xa1MFiy_Z4AAAAM/hour-glass-timer.gif

Also - it wouldn’t be a “co-championship.” The SoCon recognizes each Championship Team as SoCon Champions. It is not a shared Championship. It is a Championship earned by each Team. This may seem meaninglessly semantic or the difference may seem overly subtle, but FUBeAR believes once ‘your Team’ earns a Championship and another Team also earns a Championship in the same sport in the same season, you ‘get’ why it’s not those things and the distinction is, instead, important.

[Reign of Terrier]

Just wanna plug here that I feel really good about a lot of what I said this year re: Mercer (predicted some teams would give their defense trouble after they played Wofford - because Wofford sucks on offense this year and I also wasn’t really impressed with DJ Smith and that was vindicated). Those are really the two big things I felt confident about through 3-4 weeks of the season.

I don’t LIKE what happened to Western, and I don’t think I said anything predicting anything for them, but what happened to them fit my gut instinct (that they are cursed).

I didn’t see us beating Samford, and didn’t forsee Samford smacking BOTH Chatt and Mercer while laying and egg against us and the Citadel

[kdinva]

UTC 27; APSU 24
Mercer 34; Furman 17
WCU 35; Samford 33
Clemson 49, The Citadel 13
S. Carolina 54; Wofford 17
ETSU 24; VMI 20

[FUBeAR]

Lots of SoCon peeps on the just-released South Carolina Football Hall of Fame Nominee ballot.

FUBeAR voted for Furman LEGENDS - Coach Bobby Johnson, Coach Robbie Caldwell, LB Orlando Ruff, and bellhop great QB, Jack Douglas, on the Modern Day Ballot.

FUBeAR voted for the best man to ever walk the home sidelines in Whitmire Stadium as the Catamounts’ Head Coach, Bob (it ain’t his curse) Waters, on the Legacy Ballot.

Can only vote for 4 on the Modern Day Ballot - If FUBeAR could have voted for more, he would have also selected…

WCU DL - Clyde Simmons
Appy QB - Armanti Edwards
Appy LB - Dexter Coakley
Woffy RB - Eric Breitenstein
bellhop LB - Brian Ruff

There may be other SC natives with SoCon ties, but FUBeAR can’t see the detailed bios now that he has voted.


GO VOTE HERE - https://createsend.com/t/i-DF03F0C4FA93C8E22540EF23F30FEDED

Have y’all voted yet?

Need to add a few SoCon names to those listed above, so y’all will know they are on the ballot…

Donnie Abraham - ETSU DB
Troy Brown - Marshall WR
Shawn Graves - Wofford QB

Also add Jim Carlen on the Legacy ballot. West Virginia was in the SoCon when he Coached there … and FUBeAR is friends with his daughter and Coached his grandkids.

So, didn’t wanna leave him out. But … since only 1 vote is allowed on that ballot, FUBeAR still, despite the personal relationship, voted for WCU’s Coach Bob (it’s not HIS curse) Waters over Coach Carlen. How ‘bout that Cats fans?

[The Cats]

Have y’all voted yet?

Need to add a few SoCon names to those listed above, so y’all will know they are on the ballot…

Donnie Abraham - ETSU DB
Troy Brown - Marshall WR
Shawn Graves - Wofford QB

Also add Jim Carlen on the Legacy ballot. West Virginia was in the SoCon when he Coached there … and FUBeAR is friends with his daughter and Coached his grandkids.

So, didn’t wanna leave him out. But … since only 1 vote is allowed on that ballot, FUBeAR still, despite the personal relationship, voted for WCU’s Coach Bob (it’s not HIS curse) Waters over Coach Carlen. How ‘bout that Cats fans?

I voted, & thanks for the letting us know about this vote. I'm sure all the Cat fans appreciate your vote for Coach Waters!!! as do I...

[OrangeAndBlack]

I really hope another SoCon team gets in the field besides Mercer. I would choose WCU if they beat Samford. Good luck and my picks are all chalk this week: Mercer, ETSU, WCU, UTC, and the 2 FBS teams!

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games on Saturday, 11/23. Kickoff times shown are ET.



AWAY TEAM
HOME TEAM
TIME
REAL News


ETSU
VMI

12P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55478_VMI-vs-ETSU_20241123/stats/)

Coach Lamb just rec'd a PHAT new contract thru 2028, so the LandLockedThievingTars celebrate that. VMI won't take it lying down though. Those Roos are gonna jump up and defend their Post. In the end though, the ETSU's win it by they 2-digit year to which Coach Lamb is signed.

ETSU 42 - VMI 14


Chattanooga
Austin Peay

1P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55512_PEAY-vs-CHAT_20241123/stats/)

The Train has been off the track since Mocs QB1 disappeared. Don't think he's back this week. But the SoftLeatherShoes think they have a lot to play for with AD advocating for them in the smoke-filled room in a swanky hotel in New Orleans on Saturday night / Sunday AM. It's ugly, but the Governors are impeachable.

Chattanooga 15 - APSU 14


Western Carolina
Samford

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55522_SAM-vs-WCU_20241123/stats/)

FUBeAR is not making a pick for this game.

He is giving the Catamounts' Fans until Kickoff to demonstrate their level of atonement (no financial reparations required) for their and/or their predecessors serious transgressions. Then FUBeAR will decide how this game, the Furman @ Mercer game, and the Committee's deliberations will play out with regard to the Catamounts' future. FUBeAR has seen just a few small virtuous acts from the LilacLionsOfTheMountains' supporters from mid-week on, but still nothing explicit in the realm of contrition. That is disappointing.


The Citadel
Clemson

3:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52399_CLEM-vs-CIT_20241123/stats/)

GREAT SEASON COACH DRAYTON AND THE BELLHOPS!!

Clemson 49 - The Citadel 0


Wofford
South Carolina

4P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/52081_SC-vs-WOF_20241123/stats/)

Better season AnkleBiters. Keep up the good work!

South Carolina 52 - Wofford 3



FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Rankings



FUBeAR’s
Power Rank


SoCon
Team


Massey Projected Overall
Record


Massey Projected SoCon
Record


Massey Projected SoCon
Win %


Massey Projected SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon
W/L
Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

7-5


5-3


0.625


3

Losses to Mercer, WCU, Samford



3

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

7-5


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Mercer, ETSU



4

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

7-5


5-3


0.625


3

Losses to Chatt, Mercer, Furman



5

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

4-7


3-4


0.429


5

Wins over VMI, Mercer, Chatt



6

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

5-7


3-5


0.375


6

Wins over VMI, Samford, Wofford



7

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

5-7


3-5


0.375


6

Wins over VMI, Samford, Furman



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)

1-11


1-7


0.125


9

Win over Furman



















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

3-8


2-5


0.286


8

Win over CIT, ETSU



Only 1 small break from SCIENCE.

When we are contemplating the effects of a Curse on outcomes, it’s difficult to assume SCIENCE enjoys primacy over the Dark Arts…so, while Massey is projecting a 1 point Catamount Win over the HomewoodHounds, FUBeAR knows there are outside forces that may, or may not, exert influence on that outcome.

Thus, FUBeAR is conjuring up his rankings with the SoftLeatherShoeWearingBirds ahead of the LilacLionsOfTheMountains, as his sole exception to Mr. Massey’s SCIENCE.

[ElCid]

Dang. We got 45 more yards than Clemson. Rushed for 95 yards in the first Qtr, crossed the 50 all three possessions. And we are down 14-0. Ahhhh! Not to mention we got robbed on the first FG attempt. It clearly looked good. We will obviously lose, but my Dogs are looking poised.

[Mocs123]

The Mocs are starting to look like Furman. Artopeous was available as a backup only - Schomburg went out with a knee injury so now Artopeous is in the game. No other scholarship QB available.

Two starting offensive linemen out

It appears Reggie Davis(RB#1) is out and Durrant(RB#2) and Jackson (RB#3) were out coming into the game so RB#4 Wyche and RB#5 Locke (a walkon) are getting the carries.

Now our best possession receiver (Phillips) goes out with a bad looking ankle injury.

[kdinva]

I was very happy VMI's defense held ETSU to 16 points and 318 yards in the Buc's 16-9 win. The Buc's only TD was after they blocked a VMI punt inside the 25. VMI's offense got a little burst with true freshman Crump starting at QB, rushed for 126 yards, but had at least 7 passes dropped by VMI receivers.

[The Cats]

https://twitter.com/WCUFB_Video/status/1860465701401579655

[SU DOG]

I hope the Catamounts get into the Playoffs. That is not because they beat my team (and were fortunate to do so), but I sincerely believe that WCU would represent the SoCon really well. That is a strong team and might do really well.

[Milktruck74]

TSU is playing their way into the playoffs. I can't see the So Con getting a second team in this year. Too much cannibalizing ourselves. Every Bubble team won today!!! EKU, UT MArtin, and TSU.

[OrangeAndBlack]

The Mocs are starting to look like Furman. Artopeous was available as a backup only - Schomburg went out with a knee injury so now Artopeous is in the game. No other scholarship QB available.

Two starting offensive linemen out

It appears Reggie Davis(RB#1) is out and Durrant(RB#2) and Jackson (RB#3) were out coming into the game so RB#4 Wyche and RB#5 Locke (a walkon) are getting the carries.

Now our best possession receiver (Phillips) goes out with a bad looking ankle injury.

thats terrible to hear about all the injuries! Phillips was excellent when I’ve watched him this year.

[gofurman]

Pretty sure you left out the most important stat...W/L. When those completions happen, when those TD passes happen, when those INTs happen are crucial. You know, because there isn't a ring for best QB rating. Is there? Sure it's nice to have a great QB, but it's got to translate into the only critical result. That isn't always the case.

true. And Hedden BEAT CITADEL. I mean came out gun-slinging in his 4th game Or whatever. First SoCon road game perhaps. Down 13 with about 5 minutes left. Two TD drives for the win. Boom

I don’t know how good he is. He may stink. But I know he doesn’t have a team this year. TEAM. Furman has no OL. Here’s a stat. Furman had only ONE RUN OVER TWENTY YARDS ALL YEAR. How can any QB or team win like that? We NEVER RUSHED FOR 200 yards EVER all year. Last three games we averaged about 1.7 yards per carry …. No one. QB. Team can win like that.

then all the defensive injuries. And losing Josh Harris. Hinton is a great WR. but would be so much better if Harris were on opposite side of field. I bet just having Harris we win two more games. Losing Fred Turner at LT probably cost us a game or so easy. I know my team at all 22 positions.

I don’t know if Hedden is it or not. He would add a lot more if he could run a little bit. But he’s so young. It’s a TEAM game. I laugh at QB stats a lot. Sure QB X looks great. He has 7 seconds to throw the ball with no pressure. QB Y has 2.5;seconds before he’s running for his life. It’s why VMI struggles so much. Just not enough overall athletes. Same for us this year in LOS. Heck. We couldn’t SNAP a ball for 2 or 3 games.

[gofurman]

UTC 27; APSU 24
Mercer 34; Furman 17
WCU 35; Samford 33
Clemson 49, The Citadel 13
S. Carolina 54; Wofford 17
ETSU 24; VMI 20

phenomenal guess at Clemson Citadel score !

[ElCid]

I'm proud of my Dogs. Sure we got beat. Made a few mistakes, but we also rolled up 288 yards of rushing against Clemson...double what they allowed per game all year. And half of that was against the starters in the first half. Dabo was pulling his hair out. Ended up 8/18 on third downs with 387 yards total. Not bad.

[FootballFan93]

I'm proud of my Dogs. Sure we got beat. Made a few mistakes, but we also rolled up 288 yards of rushing against Clemson...double what they allowed per game all year. And half of that was against the starters in the first half. Dabo was pulling his hair out. Ended up 8/18 on third downs with 387 yards total. Not bad.

Nice showing against a top 25 FBS team! You guys should definitely be proud of those stats. Always been a fan of the Citadel, and I really like your head coach.

[kdinva]

I'm proud of my Dogs. Sure we got beat. Made a few mistakes, but we also rolled up 288 yards of rushing against Clemson...double what they allowed per game all year. And half of that was against the starters in the first half. Dabo was pulling his hair out. Ended up 8/18 on third downs with 387 yards total. Not bad.

Fine effort, nothing to hang your heads about.............but how did ETSU get 35 points vs NDSU in september?

[caribbeanhen]

I'm here only to say the FCS Playoffs deserves 2 Southern Conference teams....

[Mocs123]

Congratulations to both The Citadel and Wofford for solid showings against P5 FBS teams. You guys have nothing to be ashamed of with efforts like that!

And congrats to Mercer for winning what I believe is your first SoCon Championship and (likely) being the only SoCon team in the playoffs this year.

The SoCon tends to cannibalize itself every year. Do we need to expand and go do divisions where the top teams don't necessarily have to play each other every year?

[ElCid]

Fine effort, nothing to hang your heads about.............but how did ETSU get 35 points vs NDSU in september?

Good question. But I think that the SOCON has some good D's. Sure there is the familiarity thing while playing a conf game, but above the FCS average overall.

[FUBeAR]

I'm here only to say the FCS Playoffs deserves 2 Southern Conference teams....
Unfortunately, there are 4.5 Playoff-QUALITY Teams in the SoCon, but, most likely, only 1 Playoff-worthy Team in the eyes 👀 of the Committee - because…

1) their eyes view the circularly logical, self-fulfilling, voodoo Strength of Schedule calculations as dogmatic
2) SoCon Teams usually have less than 1% chance of pulling an FBS upset because of the level of FBS competition
3) SoCon plays a full round-robin schedule with no ability for Teams to pile up wins facing an all-you-can-eat buffet of bottom-feeders, while missing competing with other top Teams in the Conference - looking at you, CAA.

… and this season, specifically, because…

1) ETSU failed to close the deal vs. NDSU
2) WCU’s Defense went dormant in Missoula
3) Mercer played 4 minutes of barely-JUCO-level Football to start the game at Samford
4) WCU’s Offense took the week off vs. Campbell
5) Chatt’s QB1 went down and QB2 just doesn’t ‘stir the drink’ the same way QB1 does
6) Furman played up to their 2025 potential @ ETSU
7) Samford’s Team has multiple personality disorder - 1 ‘personality’ is Top 10 FCS & the other is #8 in the SoCon
8) WCU’s Team cannot stop committing penalties, particularly personal fouls - almost dead last in FCS in all 4 Penalty Stats tracked by the NCAA
9) ETSU’s inability to settle on a QB1 and build an effective Offense / Offensive game plan around the talents of the QB1 selected
10) Chatt failed to close the deal @ GaState

Think that about covers it. Did FUBeAR miss anything?

[Reign of Terrier]

Unfortunately, there are 4.5 Playoff-QUALITY Teams in the SoCon, but, most likely, only 1 Playoff-worthy Team in the eyes  of the Committee - because…

1) their eyes view the circularly logical, self-fulfilling, voodoo Strength of Schedule calculations as dogmatic
2) SoCon Teams usually have less than 1% chance of pulling an FBS upset because of the level of FBS competition
3) SoCon plays a full round-robin schedule with no ability for Teams to pile up wins facing an all-you-can-eat buffet of bottom-feeders, while missing competing with other top Teams in the Conference - looking at you, CAA.

… and this season, specifically, because…

1) ETSU failed to close the deal vs. NDSU
2) WCU’s Defense went dormant in Missoula
3) Mercer played 4 minutes of barely-JUCO-level Football to start the game at Samford
4) WCU’s Offense took the week off vs. Campbell
5) Chatt’s QB1 went down and QB2 just doesn’t ‘stir the drink’ the same way QB1 does
6) Furman played up to their 2025 potential @ ETSU
7) Samford’s Team has multiple personality disorder - 1 ‘personality’ is Top 10 FCS & the other is #8 in the SoCon
8) WCU’s Team cannot stop committing penalties, particularly personal fouls - almost dead last in FCS in all 4 Penalty Stats tracked by the NCAA
9) ETSU’s inability to settle on a QB1 and build an effective Offense / Offensive game plan around the talents of the QB1 selected
10) Chatt failed to close the deal @ GaState

Think that about covers it. Did FUBeAR miss anything?

I think Wofford wasn’t playoff worthy - just based on how they played a couple of the top flight and how we blew it against the Citadel, but we were a couple plays from being an 8 win team (Citadel, W&M, Western). With a win against Richmond, that would have put us in the playoffs.

Wofford is a full-time OC away from being “back” I think.

[FUBeAR]

I think Wofford wasn’t playoff worthy - just based on how they played a couple of the top flight and how we blew it against the Citadel, but we were a couple plays from being an 8 win team (Citadel, W&M, Western). With a win against Richmond, that would have put us in the playoffs.

Wofford is a full-time OC away from being “back” I think.
FUBeAR concurs with this assessment of the PorchYappers, and for clarity, FUBeAR wasn’t including the YardBarkers in his 4.5 Playoff-quality Teams. Those 4.5 are…

Mercer
Chattanooga
WCU
ETSU
Samford (0.5 - the Top 10 in FCS Samford Team; NOT the #8 in SoCon Samford Team)

[caribbeanhen]

Unfortunately, there are 4.5 Playoff-QUALITY Teams in the SoCon, but, most likely, only 1 Playoff-worthy Team in the eyes  of the Committee - because…

1) their eyes view the circularly logical, self-fulfilling, voodoo Strength of Schedule calculations as dogmatic
2) SoCon Teams usually have less than 1% chance of pulling an FBS upset because of the level of FBS competition
3) SoCon plays a full round-robin schedule with no ability for Teams to pile up wins facing an all-you-can-eat buffet of bottom-feeders, while missing competing with other top Teams in the Conference - looking at you, CAA.

… and this season, specifically, because…

1) ETSU failed to close the deal vs. NDSU
2) WCU’s Defense went dormant in Missoula
3) Mercer played 4 minutes of barely-JUCO-level Football to start the game at Samford
4) WCU’s Offense took the week off vs. Campbell
5) Chatt’s QB1 went down and QB2 just doesn’t ‘stir the drink’ the same way QB1 does
6) Furman played up to their 2025 potential @ ETSU
7) Samford’s Team has multiple personality disorder - 1 ‘personality’ is Top 10 FCS & the other is #8 in the SoCon
8) WCU’s Team cannot stop committing penalties, particularly personal fouls - almost dead last in FCS in all 4 Penalty Stats tracked by the NCAA
9) ETSU’s inability to settle on a QB1 and build an effective Offense / Offensive game plan around the talents of the QB1 selected
10) Chatt failed to close the deal @ GaState

Think that about covers it. Did FUBeAR miss anything?

he sure did

Final Standings:


1
ElCid
249


2
Karl Havoc
242


2
grizband
242


4
Massey
240


5
Bisonator
239


6
caribbeanhen
238


7
RahRahRabbits
237


8
MR. CHICKEN
235


9
JacksFan40
232


9
KPSUL
232


9
Wapiti
232


12
mvemjsunpx
231


12
Go Lehigh TU owl
231


14
topher99
230


14
ncspiderfan
230


16
MSUBobcat
228


16
FU_Paladin08
228


16
FUBeAR
228


19
JALMOND
227


20
Puddin Tane
225


20
Chalupa Batman
225


22
MTfan4life
224


23
POD Knows
223


24
centraljerseycat
218


24
footballer23
218


26
bonarae
214


27
The Cats
213


28
Roamingriz
211


29
crusader11
205


30
Catbooster
166


31
zzLsutiger2
128


32
zzzmvfcfan
58


33
zcoriander_seed
46


34
zzbluefish
32


35
zzRJGUIDRY1
18


36
zzCarolina010
13


37
zzSeattleCat
11



great job El Cid

[FUBeAR]

he sure did

Final Standings:


1
ElCid
249


2
Karl Havoc
242


2
grizband
242


4
Massey
240


5
Bisonator
239


6
caribbeanhen
238


7
RahRahRabbits
237


8
MR. CHICKEN
235


9
JacksFan40
232


9
KPSUL
232


9
Wapiti
232


12
mvemjsunpx
231


12
Go Lehigh TU owl
231


14
topher99
230


14
ncspiderfan
230


16
MSUBobcat
228


16
FU_Paladin08
228


16
FUBeAR
228


19
JALMOND
227


20
Puddin Tane
225


20
Chalupa Batman
225


22
MTfan4life
224


23
POD Knows
223


24
centraljerseycat
218


24
footballer23
218


26
bonarae
214


27
The Cats
213


28
Roamingriz
211


29
crusader11
205


30
Catbooster
166


31
zzLsutiger2
128


32
zzzmvfcfan
58


33
zcoriander_seed
46


34
zzbluefish
32


35
zzRJGUIDRY1
18


36
zzCarolina010
13


37
zzSeattleCat
11



great job El Cid
Done in by Corporate mismanagement. Heads are about to roll!

[ElCid]

Done in by Corporate mismanagement. Heads are about to roll!

Heeheehee. I'll remind you from time to time.

[caribbeanhen]

Heeheehee. I'll remind you from time to time.

Corporate LLC FubeaR owned by the Veterans committee

[FUBeAR]

Corporate LLC FubeaR owned by the Veterans committee
Y’all are sucking up those gubmint pensions with time to use AI to analyze picks. FUBeAR & Co. has to work for a living!

[FUBeAR]

Now that the regular season has ended and, per Massey, no SoCon Team’s (voodoo) Strength of Schedule is more than 20 slots above or below the average SoCon SoS, can we acknowledge that Mercer’s Defense is pretty dang good? Or still nah?




FCS Rank


Metric


Team
















1

3RD DOWN CONVERSION PCT DEFENSE
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Converted


Attempts


%
















43


171


0.251










1

DEFENSIVE TDS
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Fumb Ret TD's


INT Ret TD's


Total Def TD's
















4


3


7










1

PASSES INTERCEPTED
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Opp Pass Att


INT's


INT Ret Yds


INT Ret TD's














417


22


323


3








1

RUSHING DEFENSE
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Opp Rush Att


Opp Rush Yds


Opp Rush YPA


Opp Rush TD's


Opp Rush YPG












358


809


2.26


11


67.4






1

TEAM SACKS
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Sacks


Sack Yds


Sacks/Game
















40


240


3.33










1

TURNOVERS GAINED
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Fumb Recvr'd


INT's


Total TO's Gained
















9


22


31










2
(missed #1 by 0.1 TFL/G)

TEAM TACKLES FOR LOSS
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Solo TFL's


Asst TFL's


TFL Yds


Total TFL's


TFL's/Game












70


56


385


98


8.2






8

FIRST DOWNS DEFENSE
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Opp Rush 1st D


Opp Pass 1st D


Opp Penlty 1st D


Opp Total 1st D














62


104


18


184








8

TEAM PASSING EFFICIENCY DEFENSE
Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

Opp Pass Att


Opp Pass Comp


INT's


Opp Pass Yds


Opp Pass TD's


Opp Pass Rating










417


210


22


2936


15


110.82

[wcugrad95]

With WCU not being a first-4 out kind of team, what do you guys think would have made the difference? Was the Campbell loss what killed us, or was it the ETSU loss that would have given us a share of the SOCON championship?

And FUBeAR I know we would have been technically champions, but co-champs in this argument makes more sense.

Put another way, if WCU is 8-4, 7-1 in league play, and SOCON champs but not the AQ team are we in? If we beat Campbell and are 8-4 but the same 6-2 we finished are we in? Or did we really have to overachieve and win both of those games to be 9-3 to even have a realistic shot?

Being a WCU fan it certainly feels like they are saying we would have had to win both given where we landed.

[kdinva]

The Campbell loss was "it".....


With WCU not being a first-4 out kind of team, what do you guys think would have made the difference? Was the Campbell loss what killed us, or was it the ETSU loss that would have given us a share of the SOCON championship?

And FUBeAR I know we would have been technically champions, but co-champs in this argument makes more sense.

Put another way, if WCU is 8-4, 7-1 in league play, and SOCON champs but not the AQ team are we in? If we beat Campbell and are 8-4 but the same 6-2 we finished are we in? Or did we really have to overachieve and win both of those games to be 9-3 to even have a realistic shot?

Being a WCU fan it certainly feels like they are saying we would have had to win both given where we landed.

[ElCid]

With WCU not being a first-4 out kind of team, what do you guys think would have made the difference? Was the Campbell loss what killed us, or was it the ETSU loss that would have given us a share of the SOCON championship?

And FUBeAR I know we would have been technically champions, but co-champs in this argument makes more sense.

Put another way, if WCU is 8-4, 7-1 in league play, and SOCON champs but not the AQ team are we in? If we beat Campbell and are 8-4 but the same 6-2 we finished are we in? Or did we really have to overachieve and win both of those games to be 9-3 to even have a realistic shot?

Being a WCU fan it certainly feels like they are saying we would have had to win both given where we landed.


In.

[Reign of Terrier]

It was the Campbell loss. No way around it.

[FUBeAR]

With WCU not being a first-4 out kind of team, what do you guys think would have made the difference?
FUBeAR knows. Tried to tell y’all all week.

Believe it or don’t … ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

https://m.catholicprayercards.org/i/Spanish%20cards/639_front.jpg

[wcugrad95]

Different question. What made UTC higher in the final conversations over WCU (besides their AD being on the committee)? Was it their big win over Western? Well that couldn’t be it. Was it their 23-point loss to Samford at home who Western beat the next week in Homewood? Hard to see that. Was it their “best win” over ETSU?

Look - I know it is basically petty to worry about being #25 vs #29 (or really being anywhere not in the field). There were way too many 8+ win teams for any SOCON team to expect to break through. But just seems odd that it is clear the Mocs were somehow considered better than the Cats really dating back to the week we beat them.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Different question. What made UTC higher in the final conversations over WCU (besides their AD being on the committee)? Was it their big win over Western? Well that couldn’t be it. Was it their 17-point loss to Samford at home who Western beat the next week in Homewood? Hard to see that. Was it their “best win” over ETSU?

Look - I know it is basically petty to worry about being #25 vs #29 (or really being anywhere not in the field). There were way too many 8+ win teams for any SOCON team to expect to break through. But just seems odd that it is clear the Mocs were somehow considered better than the Cats really dating back to the week we beat them.

The only big argument I could see is: They nearly beat Georgia State. "If" they played a mid tier FCS the likely get to 8 wins. So it's all hypothetical. Maybe in the end it's a respectful nod to UTC to put them in the 1st out position, but they weren't seriously considered.


It's probably good for the future: The message is do not schedule 2 FBS games. Either take the money or be seriously considered for the playoffs. but not both.

[ElCid]

Different question. What made UTC higher in the final conversations over WCU (besides their AD being on the committee)? Was it their big win over Western? Well that couldn’t be it. Was it their 17-point loss to Samford at home who Western beat the next week in Homewood? Hard to see that. Was it their “best win” over ETSU?

Look - I know it is basically petty to worry about being #25 vs #29 (or really being anywhere not in the field). There were way too many 8+ win teams for any SOCON team to expect to break through. But just seems odd that it is clear the Mocs were somehow considered better than the Cats really dating back to the week we beat them.

I'll try, but I'm not convinced myself. It's a consistency thing.

Forget the FBS. Too many weird variables at play. WCU had three OOC, One good, one ok, one not so good. They only won the ok one. Lost to the bad one. And blew a big lead to the good one. Blowing leads is not good. Presents an inconsistent picture to people. UTC only played two OOC. Not great teams, but again OK. Won both. And by as good as other seeded team did. In the conf play, it was a wash with slight edge to WCU H2H. But the Mercer game also showed inconsistency. Again, not sure I convinced myself, but there you are. For what's it worth I still include both in final poll, barely, with edge to WCU. I think both would take at least the bottom third of the field. Maybe the second third at home.

[Sandlapper Spike]

Chattanooga fares well in the computer ratings; it has good metrics across the board, suggesting that it is a top-20 caliber team. I think that by the committee's actual stated standards, the Mocs should be in the field. I am certainly not surprised that they aren't; they don't have the magic number of wins (Eastern Kentucky), aren't a good enough "story" (Tennessee State), and don't have a long history of FCS playoff participation (New Hampshire).

Western Carolina, for whatever reason, does not have excellent metrics. WCU's best argument for playoff inclusion is that it finished solo second in the SoCon, which strikes me as a very good argument, but the selection committee obviously has a rather low opinion of the SoCon as a league. The OVC and CAA combined for five at-large bids while the SoCon was shut out, which is ludicrous but was also expected, because people (including more than a few media members) have become conditioned to the way the committee operates and now accept its decisions as reasonable.

[lionsrking2]

With WCU not being a first-4 out kind of team, what do you guys think would have made the difference? Was the Campbell loss what killed us, or was it the ETSU loss that would have given us a share of the SOCON championship?

And FUBeAR I know we would have been technically champions, but co-champs in this argument makes more sense.

Put another way, if WCU is 8-4, 7-1 in league play, and SOCON champs but not the AQ team are we in? If we beat Campbell and are 8-4 but the same 6-2 we finished are we in? Or did we really have to overachieve and win both of those games to be 9-3 to even have a realistic shot?

Being a WCU fan it certainly feels like they are saying we would have had to win both given where we landed.

You should have been in over Northern Arizona. The fact they got in is a joke. Didn't play the two best teams in the Big Sky, lost to 3 and 4, all FCS wins vs sub .500 teams, blown out at UIW and one of their wins is vs a fake school. Moral of the story is play in the Big Sky and don't lose vs the crap.

[wcugrad95]

I especially appreciate lionsrkings2’s post. Not so much as the direct comparison to any 1 school, but to the point that many teams who had 8 or 9 wins got a huge lift for that magic number by playing in conferences where you can dodge the best teams and have an easier chance of getting extra wins.

At the end of the day you gotta win games, but WCU finished 7-5 and I would argue that was really as bad as we could have possibly done. There were ZERO games we played where we didn’t have a reasonable chance to win (including our game vs NC State). There were at least a few where we woulda/coulda/shoulda won. I get we are dinged for not finishing those, but there is not a first round game on the slate next week that WCU wouldn’t have a very solid chance of winning.

I have not really been a huge fan of expansion because I love the SOCON. But let’s bring on 6 or 7 more doormats so our top 3 teams can all get 8-9 wins every season.

[Mocs123]

It’s hard to say for WCU but it was probably the Campbell game. I think the fact that Gonzalez was injured hurt the catamounts too. The committee looks at that stuff too even if they shouldn’t (and was one of the reasons we didn’t make it in 2013).

To be fair I don’t think any SoCon team was going to get in with just 7 D1 wins. We needed 8 wins in a 12 game season.

For the Mocs the Samford game was the mail in the coffin- a double digit loss to an unranked team at home. No excuses.

It’s hard to fault the Mocs for two FBS losses other than scheduling them in the first place. Losing by one score to the 7-seed - no shame in that. Losing to a good WCU team by one score on the road with our starting QB - the committee could have probably overlooked that too, but losing to the Bulldogs at home the way we did….. I’m not saying Samford was a terrible team but they looked pretty bad on paper to the committee.

[caribbeanhen]

You should have been in over Northern Arizona. The fact they got in is a joke. Didn't play the two best teams in the Big Sky, lost to 3 and 4, all FCS wins vs sub .500 teams, blown out at UIW and one of their wins is vs a fake school. Moral of the story is play in the Big Sky and don't lose vs the crap.

The Big Sky over The Montañas reflects sweet little lies back down to the national FCS pundits who perpetuate lies in the name of attendance

[FUBeAR]

The Big Sky over The Montañas reflects sweet little lies back down to the national FCS pundits who perpetuate lies in the name of attendance
The PotatoPeople are BIG MAD at 10-1 in FCS Mercer getting the #7 Seed over 9-2 in FCS Idaho that had to come from behind and barely beat a 3-8 Big Lie Team that a tied-for-3rd place SoCon non-playoff Team waxed.

Guess they skeered of Richmond or Lehigh or don’t want to back to Bozeman and get shellacked by 5 scores again.

[Reign of Terrier]

You should have been in over Northern Arizona. The fact they got in is a joke. Didn't play the two best teams in the Big Sky, lost to 3 and 4, all FCS wins vs sub .500 teams, blown out at UIW and one of their wins is vs a fake school. Moral of the story is play in the Big Sky and don't lose vs the crap.

Tbh I’m referring to this kind of record inflation “Indianaing.” The new FBS playoff format puts the dynamic at the forefront. I’m a BIG believer that teams should be rewarded for winning most of their games because it’s really hard to do, but starting to think the caveat should be it only counts if you play all of your conference opponents, which is rare in today’s game.

[Reign of Terrier]

Anyway, I made one of these predictions elsewhere, but I’ll make 2 here.

1) The Socon will have equal to or greater than teams in the quarterfinals as the CAA
2) The Socon will have more teams in the playoffs next year.

I’m reading in the hot seat thread and lurking on the WCU boards that Bell at WCU is a candidate at other schools in NC (ECU, Charlotte) and that he’s turned down a contract extension with the Catamounts. If he leaves, I think the Catamounts take a step back. Tre Lamb at ETSU is also a name tossed around for these G5 coaching jobs.

If I were a betting man, I’d say at least one current socon coach won’t be coaching at their school next year. That’s not a crazy bet, because it’s been true of every school for the last few years, with maybe 1-2 exceptions. I think Hatcher at Samford would be the only one fired for performance, but could see Bell, Lamb, and even Jacobs maybe get a call up. I think Rocco, Hendrix, Wright and Drayton are fairly safe. Hendrix has built up enough capital to last like 3 more years of being not-great, and Rocco/Drayton are respected for doing more with less. Wright could piss people off if he collapses again, but also he’s won more games in his first 4 years than any other Socon coach.

For Wofford, Watson probably has another year to make a playoff run, but then I think he’s out if he can’t. That sounds very impatient of the Wofford faithful, but he was not a great hire; it was a cheap and easy move by a cheap and nepotistic Athletic Director. Now, it could work out next year, no doubt, but Wofford’s current playoff drought (5 years) is the longest in 20 years (when we first went D1) and our biggest flaw is that we aren’t fun to watch. Bell and Watson have as many playoff appearances at their current schools, but Western has at least been fun to watch at times. There’s basically no confidence in Watson as an OC. Things aren’t as toxic with wofford fans as they were toward the end of the Conklin era, but everyone’s vibe is “we can do better than this.” We hired a new AD in the last year, and if he was going to pull the trigger on firing Watson, he would have already done it I think, but he’s definitely itching to put his stamp on Wofford’s athletic program to get in the alumni good graces. Both the football and basketball coaches (who were hired under similar circumstances) really have to do something special by the end of the 2025-2026 school years to keep their job.

In the Socon context, I think Wofford could be in a good spot to save Watson’s job if we hire an OC and some of these coaching changes happen.

[wcugrad95]

I will say that some on the WCU board love to troll Twitter (excuse me - X) and take anything said on social media as gospel. Jerry tries hard to let people speculate and reference where they hear things, and he does a good job trying to balance that with not allowing our posters to get digs in on players (coaches and admis are fair game). That being said, if you go back and read our board Kerwin Bell has been going to UF for the past 2 years! And keep in mind there are other threads on the board referencing Kade Bell is going to be the next OC at both FSU and UF :)

I am not saying Kerwin isn't a candidate for the Charlotte job. Actual media outlets like the Charlotte Observer have him as the most likely candiate to get the gig and if offered a possible 4x raise and a step "up" to FBS it would be hard to turn it down at nearly 60 years old. He has an exciting offense, is a big personality that would do well in a major market like Charlotte, etc. At the same time, I think we could have a really good team coming back, and he has 1 year left on his contract and owes us a conference championship that he has promised since geting to Cullowhee. Probably a bigger concern is if he leaves (or if any SOCON coach leaves), how many players do they take with them? That is the blueprint. Look who Kade took to Pittsburgh with him, or at all the players Tre Lamb took to Johnson City. Or that Cignetti went to Indiana with. The list goes on and on, and there will be a lot more of it to come.

[wcugrad95]

I think the fact that Gonzalez was injured hurt the catamounts too. The committee looks at that stuff too even if they shouldn’t (and was one of the reasons we didn’t make it in 2013).


Again, none of this matters. But our backup QB led us to a 3-1 record (including a win over UTC). In those last 4 games without Gonzales the Cats averaged 41 points (38, 21, 58, 47). You could argue we were just as explosive or possibly more explosive with Dickens at QB. He made FR mistakes including 1 that was very costly against ETSU, but in those last 4 starts he was 124-165 (over 75%) with 11 TDs. So I truly don't think it was our injured QB that kept us from being seriously considered. It was a clear bias against the SOCON/for teams with inflated records, and what certainly continues to feel like an even more biased opinion of WCU.

I said early on it would take 8 wins, so I am not at all surprised no 7-win SOCON team made it. My bitching is more about how bubble teams and some of the last ones in/out were viewed.

[caribbeanhen]

I will say that some on the WCU board love to troll Twitter (excuse me - X) and take anything said on social media as gospel. Jerry tries hard to let people speculate and reference where they hear things, and he does a good job trying to balance that with not allowing our posters to get digs in on players (coaches and admis are fair game). That being said, if you go back and read our board Kerwin Bell has been going to UF for the past 2 years! And keep in mind there are other threads on the board referencing Kade Bell is going to be the next OC at both FSU and UF :)

I am not saying Kerwin isn't a candidate for the Charlotte job. Actual media outlets like the Charlotte Observer have him as the most likely candiate to get the gig and if offered a possible 4x raise and a step "up" to FBS it would be hard to turn it down at nearly 60 years old. He has an exciting offense, is a big personality that would do well in a major market like Charlotte, etc. At the same time, I think we could have a really good team coming back, and he has 1 year left on his contract and owes us a conference championship that he has promised since geting to Cullowhee. Probably a bigger concern is if he leaves (or if any SOCON coach leaves), how many players do they take with them? That is the blueprint. Look who Kade took to Pittsburgh with him, or at all the players Tre Lamb took to Johnson City. Or that Cignetti went to Indiana with. The list goes on and on, and there will be a lot more of it to come.

Kerwin has to be over 60, unless he was 14 years old in 1984 when I saw him in Gainesville playing QB for the Gators

[wcugrad95]

Kerwin Douglas Bell (born June 15, 1965) is an American football (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_football) coach and former player who has been the head coach of the Western Carolina Catamounts football (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Carolina_Catamounts_football) team since 2021.


That makes Bell 59. In 1984 he would have been a 19-year old UF quarterback.

[FUBeAR]

biased opinion of WCU
Could it be anything else? Anything at all?

Surely, SOMETHING must come to mind…

https://www.dndspeak.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Curse-1.jpg

[Milktruck74]

Anyway, I made one of these predictions elsewhere, but I’ll make 2 here.

1) The Socon will have equal to or greater than teams in the quarterfinals as the CAA
2) The Socon will have more teams in the playoffs next year.

I’m reading in the hot seat thread and lurking on the WCU boards that Bell at WCU is a candidate at other schools in NC (ECU, Charlotte) and that he’s turned down a contract extension with the Catamounts. If he leaves, I think the Catamounts take a step back. Tre Lamb at ETSU is also a name tossed around for these G5 coaching jobs.

If I were a betting man, I’d say at least one current socon coach won’t be coaching at their school next year. That’s not a crazy bet, because it’s been true of every school for the last few years, with maybe 1-2 exceptions. I think Hatcher at Samford would be the only one fired for performance, but could see Bell, Lamb, and even Jacobs maybe get a call up. I think Rocco, Hendrix, Wright and Drayton are fairly safe. Hendrix has built up enough capital to last like 3 more years of being not-great, and Rocco/Drayton are respected for doing more with less. Wright could piss people off if he collapses again, but also he’s won more games in his first 4 years than any other Socon coach.

For Wofford, Watson probably has another year to make a playoff run, but then I think he’s out if he can’t. That sounds very impatient of the Wofford faithful, but he was not a great hire; it was a cheap and easy move by a cheap and nepotistic Athletic Director. Now, it could work out next year, no doubt, but Wofford’s current playoff drought (5 years) is the longest in 20 years (when we first went D1) and our biggest flaw is that we aren’t fun to watch. Bell and Watson have as many playoff appearances at their current schools, but Western has at least been fun to watch at times. There’s basically no confidence in Watson as an OC. Things aren’t as toxic with wofford fans as they were toward the end of the Conklin era, but everyone’s vibe is “we can do better than this.” We hired a new AD in the last year, and if he was going to pull the trigger on firing Watson, he would have already done it I think, but he’s definitely itching to put his stamp on Wofford’s athletic program to get in the alumni good graces. Both the football and basketball coaches (who were hired under similar circumstances) really have to do something special by the end of the 2025-2026 school years to keep their job.

In the Socon context, I think Wofford could be in a good spot to save Watson’s job if we hire an OC and some of these coaching changes happen.

There are some on the Mocs Boards that feel like Rusty is not the guy because he can't take the team to the next level...but they fail to realize what all he has done at UTC:

1. UTC doesn't have a long history as a powerhouse in FCS.
- 5 playoff appearances in 46 years, Rusty has 1 of them.
- 4 playoff wins, he has one of them.
- He has been on the Sideline for 8 of 9 Mocs Playoff games.
2. Highest Winning percentage of any coach with at least 4 seasons
3. Six seasons without a losing record.
4. One of 10 FCS programs with at least 6 wins per season in the last 6 seasons.
5. His kids graduate on time.
6. His teams have one of the highest GPAs in the Conference.

You don't get rid of a guy unless you can replace him with someone better! Ask UT-Knoxville how that worked out for them with Fulmer. They didn't like that he was only winning 9 games a year... It took them almost 20 years to recover from that one!

Rusty is an alum and loves the School and city. He is at UTC as long as he wants to be.

[Catamount87]

Let's be honest here, WCU, UTC and ETSU didn't do themselves any favors. All three let at least one game that 'they should have won' get away from them. Given that the SoCon has a long history beating each other up, scheduling soft OOC games (not really this past year for these three) and not being a particularly large conference, if you don't outright when the SoCon then you have a smaller margin of error than teams in the bigger (sized) conferences.

[wcugrad95]

FUBeAR I honestly think WCU has been a little cursed, but moreso based on our past leadership (in both the school and the athletics department). When there is no push to be good, and no money to help secure good coaches, update any facilities to help attract athletes, etc. then the program is cursed - and it was for much of the past 40 years. Bob Waters was just a magical guy who along with some other WCU supporters made lemonade out of the lemons being given out. 40 years ago WCU had facilities and budgets in-line with the teams we were playing. Then we sucked not because of any curse, but because we didn't fund anything and we didn't hire any top-level and innovative coaches for a VERY LONG time.

So I am not buying into the otherwordly being a reason the Cats can't win a conference championship or get in to the playoffs. We have at least made some strides in paying more for our coaches, have done some small things to some of the facilities and finally have some pending plans (at least on paper) for bigger upgrades, and the school in general is growing and trying to significantly step-up our drive for donations to make all things including athletics better.

Bell has given us 3 winning seasons in a row. He has yet to have a losing SOCON record. And he has a team loaded with talent. WCU routinely has the most "butts in seats" at our football games versus all the other SOCON teams. And even before that, our last coach really sucked at the end but he had a few 6 and 7-win seasons. So for Western it is more about continuing to value and give at least some priority to having a winning football program. If Bell (and the core of our players) stays I think we have a really good chance to be at least a pre-season favorite next season. If Bell leaves, I at least now have hope that we won't go backwards for the next decade. Western showed me a lot when they let the last coach go - even paying a buyout - and then went after a coach like Bell. So it will suck but I think Western will push to still hire a good coach and be a decent football team moving forward.

[caribbeanhen]

The quandary is easy to solve

You add about 8 teams to the conference

a few recommendations

The Greenville Pride
The Southeastern Florida Fire
The North Carolina Wesleyans
The Mayberry Tenn Scotts
The Methodist Monarchs
The Shorter Hawks
The Warner Bask and Robbins

might not do much for the Massey power ratings but should boost those W-L records

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR I honestly think WCU has been a little cursed, but moreso based on our past leadership (in both the school and the athletics department). When there is no push to be good, and no money to help secure good coaches, update any facilities to help attract athletes, etc. then the program is cursed - and it was for much of the past 40 years. Bob Waters was just a magical guy who along with some other WCU supporters made lemonade out of the lemons being given out. 40 years ago WCU had facilities and budgets in-line with the teams we were playing. Then we sucked not because of any curse, but because we didn't fund anything and we didn't hire any top-level and innovative coaches for a VERY LONG time.

So I am not buying into the otherwordly being a reason the Cats can't win a conference championship or get in to the playoffs. We have at least made some strides in paying more for our coaches, have done some small things to some of the facilities and finally have some pending plans (at least on paper) for bigger upgrades, and the school in general is growing and trying to significantly step-up our drive for donations to make all things including athletics better.

Bell has given us 3 winning seasons in a row. He has yet to have a losing SOCON record. And he has a team loaded with talent. WCU routinely has the most "butts in seats" at our football games versus all the other SOCON teams. And even before that, our last coach really sucked at the end but he had a few 6 and 7-win seasons. So for Western it is more about continuing to value and give at least some priority to having a winning football program. If Bell (and the core of our players) stays I think we have a really good chance to be at least a pre-season favorite next season. If Bell leaves, I at least now have hope that we won't go backwards for the next decade. Western showed me a lot when they let the last coach go - even paying a buyout - and then went after a coach like Bell. So it will suck but I think Western will push to still hire a good coach and be a decent football team moving forward.
So…you’re asking FUBeAR, an authorized Curse-Keeper of the REAL (and justified) curse that has kept WCU from enjoying any REAL success in Football since 1983, to allow Coach Bell to remain in Cullowhee.

We’ll see. You guys just aren’t giving FUBeAR much, if any, reason to bestow any further benevolence upon your beloved Catamounts.

Y’all do recall that the very next thing that happened to WCU Football after their horde of hooligans committed their violent villainous vandalism on 12/10/83 was an embarrassing 5 score curb-stomping on National TV (ABC w/Keith Jackson & Frank Broyles announcing) on 12/17/93, right? It’s been all downhill and disaster ever since.

Just sayin…

[FUBeAR]

The quandary is easy to solve

You add about 8 teams to the conference

a few recommendations

The Greenville Pride
The Southeastern Florida Fire
The North Carolina Wesleyans
The Mayberry Tenn Scotts
The Methodist Monarchs
The Shorter Hawks
The Warner Bask and Robbins

might not do much for the Massey power ratings but should boost those W-L recordsAny of those 7 Teams would be the favorites to win the CAA.

[Mocs123]

I’m not complaining about the Mocs not getting in…..we had our chances - to be honest we had chances to beat both Mercer and WCU - we just didn’t execute as well as those teams. I’m not sure what happened against Samford but we certainly had control of our own destiny and couldn’t hang on. Once you’re “on the bubble” there are a lot of teams you could make an argument being more or less worthy but by that point it’s all a crapshoot and best guess by the committee.

[Mocs123]

@wcu95 - Prior to hiring Bell, I was convinced that WCU was content to have a football program just to give the band a venue to play. Bell was an excellent hire and if he does leave it will be interesting to see who they hire to replace him. Do they splurge for someone similar or go back to a Dennis Wagner coach.

I don’t think WCU is the easiest place to win at in the SoCon, but it’s not the hardest either. Bell has proven you can win there.

[FUBeAR]

Serious question - not being a smart-a$$ (for a change).

Seeing the other multi-bid Conferences have started a “XXXX Conference Playoffs” thread.

With only Mercer participating this season (DAMMIT!!!), do y’all want a “SoCon Playoffs” thread OR just keep posting on this Week 13 thread until it’s time to open a “SoCon OffSeason” thread?

BTW - FUBeAR won’t open a “SoCon OffSeason” thread while Mercer is still playing. Y’all, of course, can do whatever the heck you want.

[wcugrad95]

Mocs123 regarding if Bell leaves, part of what my last post was saying was not a call to FOOBs to somehow work voodoo and keep Bell in Cullowhee, but was more about WCU making more of a commitment in firing our last guy, paying a buyout, and going after somebody like Bell. So my take (and maybe I am just being delusionally positive) is that IF Bell leaves the current President and AD will try and go after a coach who can keep us heading in the right direction. We have significantly upped what we pay for our coaches, have some plans to do facilities upgrades, etc. So it is always a crapshoot on bringing somebody new in, but it won't be like year's past where WCU simply hires a warm body and as you said field a football team so our band has a place to play and be seen.

[wcugrad95]

As for another thread, I would want Mercer to have its own thread when we know who they are playing. They won the conference crown and made it into the playoffs, and they deserve that and the game deserves a thread that is focused on Mercer's hopeful drive to a championship (or at least a Quarter or Semifinal run).

[FUBeAR]

As for another thread, I would want Mercer to have its own thread when we know who they are playing. They won the conference crown and made it into the playoffs, and they deserve that and the game deserves a thread that is focused on Mercer's hopeful drive to a championship (or at least a Quarter or Semifinal run).
OK - so Professor Chaos will open that “Xxxxx @ Mercer” thread this coming Saturday night and provide overviews of each Team with stats comparisons, etc.

So, let’s us SoCon peeps, use that (and hopefully, ‘those’) for our the bulk of our Mercer / SoCon Playoffs discussion-ments when it’s open and keep yammering on in this thread about whatever … and, of course, Coach Bell’s real estate hunt in Metro Charlotte, in this thread until we head to Off-Season after Mercer’s victory in Frisco.

[FUBeAR]

Here’s a fun topic…

SoCon Coach of the Year..

Candidates…

Maurice Drayton, CIT
Mike Jacobs, Mercer
Tre Lamb, ETSU

Who you got? Why?

Any other candidates?

EDIT: Just learned Mercer’s Coach Jacobs is one of 15 Finalists for the Eddie Robinson FCS National Coach of the Year Award. Does that make him SoCon COY by default? FUBeAR was leaning toward Coach Drayton.

[wcugrad95]

Jacobs was a new hire, and took a team that was picked to finish middle-of-the-pack to a 10-2 record and only missed going undefeated in the league due to about 5 gametime minutes full of brain farts by his team. On the other hand, Drayton certainly turned things around for CIT and has them not only fighting hard for 4 quarters, but turned them into a 6th place finish when they were the pre-season last place team. I wouldn't vote for Lamb as it seems like their inability to secure a playoff spot had as much to do with penalties and turnovers, and with him not picking and sticking with a QB (some of the first part of that would apply to my team, too). And he also was basically coaching Gardner-Webb-West so he had a similar kind of year that he had in Boiling Springs the last couple of seasons minus the playoff berths because he is now in a more competitive conference.

So Jacobs vs Drayton. As much as I like the story that is building in Charleston, I'd go with the guy who won the championship in his first year in the league.

And I would give a plug for Bell, but we were picked 3rd and had the pre-season OPOTY coming in. So we would have had to make the playoffs and win at least 1 if not both of those "coulda/shoulda" for him to make the list. At least for me. 6-2 and alone in 2nd is still a big thing for Western, but the other 2 guys would be my top-2 picks.

[Reign of Terrier]

I’m not sure who I’d vote for COTY in the SoCon. Jacobs didn’t have an empty cupboard when he got there, but he did better than his predecessor in the conference race. Tre Lamb obviously did great things, turning a 3-8 team into a 7-5 team, and probably would have made the playoffs had he simply scheduled NOT NDSU and an FCS team instead of UVA wise.

I hate the Citadel, and I’m not a big fan of moral victories (5-7 is a moral victory season, believe me, I experienced one this year)…but I am impressed with what Drayton is up to. Apparently last year, with their winless season, they had 0 starters who had started a game in high school (or something like that). It was an unbelievable statistic, but it made a lot of what they did (or didn’t do, as they sucked) make sense. And now, with 5 wins and maybe a couple more they should have stolen (SC State, Furman), I think it’s hard to exaggerate how much of a turnaround they did. They were a step below a couple teams, like ETSU and Chatt and Mercer, but that’s a crazy improvement from last year.

This is my roundabout way of saying Drayton I guess, but I understand people who disagree. This is a low conviction take from me.

[ElCid]

Here’s a fun topic…

SoCon Coach of the Year..

Candidates…

Maurice Drayton, CIT
Mike Jacobs, Mercer
Tre Lamb, ETSU

Who you got? Why?

Any other candidates?

EDIT: Just learned Mercer’s Coach Jacobs is one of 15 Finalists for the Eddie Robinson FCS National Coach of the Year Award. Does that make him SoCon COY by default? FUBeAR was leaning toward Coach Drayton.

Are you serious? Mercer coach, hands down. 1st year, won Mercer's first Conf Championship? Uhhh? Really? This is a question?

Sure Drayton did better, but a sub .500 season is still not a big thing. If we win the championship next year, sure, maybe.

[BearDownMU]

Here’s a fun topic…

SoCon Coach of the Year..

Candidates…

Maurice Drayton, CIT
Mike Jacobs, Mercer
Tre Lamb, ETSU

Who you got? Why?

Any other candidates?

EDIT: Just learned Mercer’s Coach Jacobs is one of 15 Finalists for the Eddie Robinson FCS National Coach of the Year Award. Does that make him SoCon COY by default? FUBeAR was leaning toward Coach Drayton.

Honestly, the thing that is most impressive about Jacobs is he came in in late January after Cronic's surprising resignation and pretty much held every player of significance. In the portal world, I think it's a minor miracle that he came in (after 3 weeks of Mercer having no coach at all) and got buy in and convinced everyone to stay. Incredible, in my opinion. And, you're correct, the cupboard wasn't bare, but it wasn't bare because he made sure no one left. And we did lose two WRs that were in NFL camps, and a QB to Maine. So this season was with not 1, but 2 Frosh QBs. Also worth noting our Oline was a glaring deficiency and he managed to bring it a couple of guys and coach them up to being a really strong group. I recognize my bias, but I'm borderline stunned we had the year we had, given all the changes.

And, I'm on record of saying how much I like and respect Coach Drayton. He's going to continue to do good things at The Citadel.

[BearDownMU]

Oh, and I love Tre (fun fact: he was a ball boy when his dad Hal was my QB coach at Cartersville High School), but... he ain't it this year.

[The Cats]

Mike Jacobs, Mercer

[FUBeAR]

So…FUBeAR was messin’ with his revolutionary new analytical tool - FUBeAR’s Overall Statistical Ranking (TM pending) … and he came up with this for Mercer’s initial Playoff ‘pod.’




Team


OSR Pts


Massey SoS


OSR x SoS


Adj OSR/1000


Adj OSR/1000/2


Mercer Over


URI Over



Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4076


26.90


109644


110


55







Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

3040


28.38


86275


86


43


12





Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

3099


18.97


58788


59


29


25


14




While still not weighting the NCAA’s 47 tracked/published Statistical Ranking categories, FUBeAR did apply a Strength of Schedule adjustment factor to the tool, using Massey’s voodoo calculation. Then, reducing the outcomes, FUBeAR believes, like David Allen Coe’s friend, Steve Goodman, wrote the perfect country song, that FUBeAR has developed the perfect predictive model.

Gonna call it right now … URI beats CCSU by 14 and Mercer beats URI by 12.

If, for some reason, the Rams screw up and don’t follow the Perfect Predictive Tool and lose to the Devils, the Bears then beat CCSU by 25 (there’s some rounding in the numbers shown).

Go win yourselves some money. You can thank FUBeAR after Thanksgiving.

[ElCid]

So…FUBeAR was messin’ with his revolutionary new analytical tool - FUBeAR’s Overall Statistical Ranking (TM pending) … and he came up with this for Mercer’s initial Playoff ‘pod.’




Team


OSR Pts


Massey SoS


OSR x SoS


Adj OSR/1000


Adj OSR/1000/2


Mercer Over


URI Over



Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4076


26.90


109644


110


55







Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

3040


28.38


86275


86


43


12





Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

3099


18.97


58788


59


29


25


14




While still not weighting the NCAA’s 47 tracked/published Statistical Ranking categories, FUBeAR did apply a Strength of Schedule adjustment factor to the tool, using Massey’s voodoo calculation. Then, reducing the outcomes, FUBeAR believes, like David Allen Coe’s friend, Steve Goodman, wrote the perfect country song, that FUBeAR has developed the perfect predictive model.

Gonna call it right now … URI beats CCSU by 14 and Mercer beats URI by 12.

If, for some reason, the Rams screw up and don’t follow the Perfect Predictive Tool and lose to the Devils, the Bears then beat CCSU by 25 (there’s some rounding in the numbers shown).

Go win yourselves some money. You can thank FUBeAR after Thanksgiving.

Lots of voodoo. Massey has RI by 21 over CCSU. Mercer by 9 over RI as a "medium." Mercer by 24 over CCSU.

[FUBeAR]

Lots of voodoo. Massey has RI by 21 over CCSU. Mercer by 9 over RI as a "medium." Mercer by 24 over CCSU.
The only voodoo is the Massey inducted part.

The rest is based on the ACTUAL relative performances and outcomes of all 123 FCS Teams this season.

FUBeAR derived the point differential determination methodology by reverse ‘forecasting’ every FCS game that has been played this season using each Team’s end of season OSR using a little borrowed time his former work-buddy owed him on Honeywell’s quantum computer. This info, via AI, was used to iteratively determine the best-fit method to forecast scores…and now FUBeAR has shared it with y’all for free.

Prolly go to a subscription model next season.

[Milktruck74]

Here’s a fun topic…

SoCon Coach of the Year..

Candidates…

Maurice Drayton, CIT
Mike Jacobs, Mercer
Tre Lamb, ETSU

Who you got? Why?

Any other candidates?

EDIT: Just learned Mercer’s Coach Jacobs is one of 15 Finalists for the Eddie Robinson FCS National Coach of the Year Award. Does that make him SoCon COY by default? FUBeAR was leaning toward Coach Drayton.

I'm not considering Lamb in the equation, he basically took a 7-4 (regular season) team that made the playoffs last year, moved them 100 miles up the road to a nicer stadium, changed the color of their uniforms and went 7-5, so he is not the COTY.

So, my $0.02 is that Coach Drayton did a better coaching job getting Citadel to 5-7 than Jacobs did getting keeping MErcer out of the portal and going 10-1. Not that Jacobs didn't do a great job, and should and WILL be the SoCon COTY...because wins matter...but I think the effort to get Citadel to 5-7 was more intense than that of getting Mercer to 10-2.

[chattownmocs]

Rusty Wright should have been fired. That is all.

[FUBeAR]

I'm not considering Lamb in the equation, he basically took a 7-4 (regular season) team that made the playoffs last year, moved them 100 miles up the road to a nicer stadium, changed the color of their uniforms and went 7-5, so he is not the COTY.

So, my $0.02 is that Coach Drayton did a better coaching job getting Citadel to 5-7 than Jacobs did getting keeping MErcer out of the portal and going 10-1. Not that Jacobs didn't do a great job, and should and WILL be the SoCon COTY...because wins matter...but I think the effort to get Citadel to 5-7 was more intense than that of getting Mercer to 10-2.
Your conclusions are certainly valid.

Your assessment / description of the job that Coach Lamb did at ETSU is unfair.

[caribbeanhen]

Here’s a fun topic…

SoCon Coach of the Year..

Candidates…

Maurice Drayton, CIT
Mike Jacobs, Mercer
Tre Lamb, ETSU

Who you got? Why?

Any other candidates?

EDIT: Just learned Mercer’s Coach Jacobs is one of 15 Finalists for the Eddie Robinson FCS National Coach of the Year Award. Does that make him SoCon COY by default? FUBeAR was leaning toward Coach Drayton.

Mike London

because he has the highest winning percentage amongst Southern Conference in conference games

[FUBeAR]

Mike London

because he has the highest winning percentage amongst Southern Conference in conference games
Nah… looks like he was 3-2 (.600) to FUBeAR…




Opponent
Result
PF
PA



VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)
W (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/game.php?gid=940319322)
41
7


at
Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)
W (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/game.php?gid=940319453)
28
21



Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)
W (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/game.php?gid=940317811)
34
24



Elon (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2447)
L (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/game.php?gid=940317690)
36
40


at
Richmond (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6547)
L (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/game.php?gid=940318875)
0
27



…and that’s not counting his L to the Beach Cheekins, who begged to join the SoCon.

Coach Jacobs’ winning % was .875.

[BearDownMU]

Mike London

because he has the highest winning percentage amongst Southern Conference in conference games

Racking up wins against the bottom of the table while avoiding the top of the table makes you the best? You must think you're on an MVFC/Big Sky thread. xcoffeex

[FUBeAR]

Racking up wins against the bottom of the table while avoiding the top of the table makes you the best? You must think you're on an MVFC/Big Sky thread. xcoffeex
This is the title of the article the CAA released about their 4 Teams making the Playoffs

[BearDownMU]

This is the title of the article the CAA released about their 4 Teams making the Playoffs

Lol. I meant to put CAA on this but I was having a separate conversation and my wires got crossed.

[Reign of Terrier]

Rusty Wright should have been fired. That is all.
he’s back!

[chattownmocs]

he’s back!

How many seasons can you choke away? It's beyond Huesman's early tenure at this point. Against weaker competition.

[MSUBobcat]

he’s back!

First Hooty, now Chatty??? FUBeAR.... get that "hell froze over" meme in here, STAT!

[Reign of Terrier]

How many seasons can you choke away? It's beyond Huesman's early tenure at this point. Against weaker competition.

As a Wofford fan, I appreciate the commentary that says "The Socon is weak because my team sucks"

[chattownmocs]

As a Wofford fan, I appreciate the commentary that says "The Socon is weak because my team sucks"

You don't think the SOCON is weaker now than it was in 09-13? I didn't think it was a very controversial statement but I don't follow as closely either. I just know that I have no faith whatsoever that Wright will ever get over the hump. 6 years in and the guys best season is 8-5 and he was set up for a conference title or playoff spot almost every single year until completely choking away November.

[FUBeAR]

You don't think the SOCON is weaker now than it was in 09-13?
Nope

https://i.imgflip.com/1lss3k.jpg

[FootballFan93]

Unsurprisingly Mercer sweeps the SoCon Players of the Year and Coach of the Year awards with 6 first team and 7 second team all conference honors. Go Bears

https://soconsports.com/fb/article/blta32fd8122754cadc/

[Reign of Terrier]

The socon is more balanced than it was 10-15 years ago. Nowadays, when a lower third tier team plays a top-third tier team, you kind of know what’s going to happen, but you still tune in because it’s only a 70% chance, whereas between 2008-2012ish, it was 99%.

The Socon has, on balance, elevated its game. The problem is that the top of the FCS has elevated from what it was 10-15 years ago. Speaking as a Wofford fan, we have sucked the last 4 years and this year we were only mediocre. But no doubt in my mind, in 2018/2019, those Wofford teams were better than those in 2010-2012. Yes, I am saying I would take the Conklin teams over the Breitenstein teams. Yes, I hate that.

The game of football is different today than it was 2008-2012ish. Way more spread. Way more multiple.

[wcugrad95]

My hot take on the All SoCon teams is that if Gonzales was the 1st team QB, Dickens should have been the 2nd team selection :)

Project his numbers over the 4 games he started (and his 3-1 record) and he would have maybe been on some national lists. 75% completion ratio for over 1300 yards, 11 TDs vs 3 INTs, and 2 rushing TDs after he was pushed into the starting role.

[FootballFan93]

My hot take on the All SoCon teams is that if Gonzales was the 1st team QB, Dickens should have been the 2nd team selection :)

Project his numbers over the 4 games he started (and his 3-1 record) and he would have maybe been on some national lists. 75% completion ratio for over 1300 yards, 11 TDs vs 3 INTs, and 2 rushing TDs after he was pushed into the starting role.

Piggybacking off of this comment. I disagree about him being second team however his stats are impressive especially for a freshman backup being thrown to the wolves (we know that all too well!). I am more interested in the fact that The Citadels QB got second team rather than Samfords.
https://soconsports.com/fb/stats/

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/3c62fa64-eaf3-4114-b986-92e02309ed3f
if you change the “view” dropdown from table to leaders, he’s first in almost every category but 2. Just an interesting thing I noticed tonight.

[FUBeAR]

My hot take on the All SoCon teams is that if Gonzales was the 1st team QB, Dickens should have been the 2nd team selection :)

Project his numbers over the 4 games he started (and his 3-1 record) and he would have maybe been on some national lists. 75% completion ratio for over 1300 yards, 11 TDs vs 3 INTs, and 2 rushing TDs after he was pushed into the starting role.
Did you include this on-target toss in his completion numbers?

It was good for 13 yards and moved the Cats half the distance to the goal.

https://i.postimg.cc/k4CMqWYr/IMG-1498.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/Nj0pCVQS/IMG-1499.jpg

PENALTIES
Through games Saturday, November 23, 2024






FCS
Rank
Team
# of
Penalties
Penalty
Yards


122 of 123
Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)
105
938

[FootballFan93]

Did you include this on-target toss in his completion numbers? It was good for 15 yards.



if I recall correctly he got a flag for that and then refs announced “number 8 has been ejected” and then all of a sudden #8 was back in the game. It was very confusing.

[FUBeAR]

if I recall correctly he got a flag for that and then refs announced “number 8 has been ejected” and then all of a sudden #8 was back in the game. It was very confusing.
Official Scorer charged it to WCU’s Defensive #8.



1st and 10 at MER35
Croker,Sully kickoff 60 yards to the WCU05 Randle,James return 22 yards to the WCU27 (Slaton,Tripp), out of bounds PENALTY WCU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Guinn,Jaquarius) 13 yards from WCU27 to WCU14.



He’s a 6-2 290 DLman though, so there’s no confusion about which #8 that is tossing a ball from OB, after the play, at the Mercer Player’s head…but maybe they ejected the other guy anyway…

[FUBeAR]

My hot take on the All SoCon teams is that…Gonzales was the 1st team QB, Dickens should have been the 2nd team selection
Piggybacking off of this comment. I disagree about him being second team however his stats are impressive
https://soconsports.com/fb/stats/

Also…if you change the “Qualified For” drop-down to “None,” sort by QB Rating, and remove the non-QB’s who threw 1 or 2 Halfback passes and the QB’s who only played in a few games, the Top 10 looks like this…



Rank
Player
Team
G
Comp
Att
%
Yds
TD’s
INT’s
YPC
YPG
QB
Rating


1
DJ. Smith
Mercer
8
99
136
72.8
1315
9
6
9.7
164.4
167.0


2
Taron Dickens
WCU
7
127
172
73.8
1428
12
3
8.3
204.0
163.1


3
Whitt Newbauer
Mercer
7
83
141
58.9
1251
10
3
8.9
178.7
152.5


4
Gino English
ETSU
11
46
80
57.5
761
7
8
9.5
69.2
146.3


5
Chase Artopoeus
UTC
9
140
237
59.1
1961
11
6
8.3
217.9
138.8


6
Quincy Crittendon
Sam.
11
277
394
70.3
2689
18
12
6.8
244.5
136.6


7
Cole Gonzales
WCU
8
205
332
61.7
2543
12
7
7.7
317.9
133.8


8
Trey Hedden
Furman
10
150
248
60.5
1767
13
9
7.1
176.7
130.4


9
Amari Odom
Wofford
8
117
211
55.5
1565
7
6
7.4
195.6
123.0


10
Luke Schomburg
UTC
8
49
92
53.3
663
4
5
7.2
82.9
117.3



…so, it kinda looks like our 2 Mercer QB’s and our 2 WCU QB’s (the 2 that 95 thinks should have been 1st AND 2nd Team All SoCon) are near the top of the charts.

So, let’s combine their results and see which tandem, based on the single most important QB metric - QB Rating - should have been 1st and 2nd Team All SoCon. 95 might be right…



Rank
Player

Team


G


Comp


Att


%


Yds


TD’s


INT’s


YPA


YPG


QBRating




1

DJ. Smith

Mercer


8


99


136


72.8


1315


9


6


9.7


164.4


167




3

Whitt Newbauer

Mercer


7


83


141


58.9


1251


10


3


8.9


178.7


152.5




Mercer


Mercer


Mercer


12


182


277


65.7


2566


19


9


9.3


213.8


159.7




2

Taron Dickens

WCU


7


127


172


73.8


1428


12


3


8.3


204


163.1




7

Cole Gonzales

WCU


8


205


332


61.7


2543


12


7


7.7


317.9


133.8




WCU


WCU


WCU


12


332


504


65.9


3971


24


10


7.9


330.9


143.8




Ohhh….sorry…NO.

Looks like the Mercer tandem of Newbauer and Smith should have been 1st and 2nd Team All SoCon QB’s. Sorry 95…you lose … AGAIN. Maybe that curse is spreading.

[wcugrad95]

I know you are taking the QBR as the definitive metric there, but I think I would take the WCU duo's numbers when trying to pick the best players at the position. Dicken's average numbers are also brought down significantly because he played sparringly in 3 games before taking over the starting role. But 5 more TDs, only 1 more INT in 227 more attempts, 117 more yards per game - those are things that would certainly factor heavily into a 1st and 2nd all-conference team where it is really about production.

And if you are going to go on QBR, then I guess Dickens would still be the #2 from the list.

Of course I said this was a "hot take" as more tongue-in-cheek. I agree with FootballFan93 that the real head-scratcher is Bennett as the #2 QB in the league. He should probably be about #4 or #5.

[wcugrad95]

And with your argument FUBeAR, English from ETSU would be the 4th best QB in the league. The guy only had 761 passing yards, completed less than 58% of his passes, and his TD to INT ratio was 7:8. I am also scratching my head on how that translates to such a high QBR. That is some FUBeAR science!!!

[FUBeAR]

And with your argument FUBeAR, English from ETSU would be the 4th best QB in the league. The guy only had 761 passing yards, completed less than 58% of his passes, and his TD to INT ratio was 7:8. I am also scratching my head on how that translates to such a high QBR. That is some FUBeAR science!!!
No FUBeAR SCIENCE. Good old fashioned NCAA methodology - have at it! https://captaincalculator.com/sports/football/ncaa-passer-rating-calculator/

Also…FUBeAR loves that you are suggesting we adopt the “95’s Production-based QB Rating System” in favor of both the NCAA’s long-in-place system AND over the knowledge of the majority of 9 SoCon Head Coaches, who probably included things like Leadership, Wins, Improvement-of-the-Players-around-him, Rushing-ability/results, etc. into consideration.

We know there are systems (and Coaches) that are focused on running up stats (often for individuals) in favor of Team Wins & Championships. Gotta factor that into the analysis.


…..and Newbauer also played sparingly in games before taking over the Starting role…so that red herring for Dickens won’t swim.

[wcugrad95]

I am not saying the QBR system is yours. I am saying it is clear with English with a higher QBR than the 1st team QB (and over Crittendon who should have probably been #2), that metric is old and it is clearly flawed. You just jump to it for the narrative it provides for the Mercer players.

But let's keep using it. Since this was for the SOCON 1st and 2nd team accolades, use your same methodology but now look at only conference games. That would end up with:



Name
GP
Comp
Att
Comp %
Yards
TD
INT
Yds/Att
Yds/Gm
Rtg


Taron Dickens


6



125
167
74.9
1398
12
3
8.4
233
165.3


Whitt Newbauer
5
61
108
56.5
986
9
2
9.1
197.2
157


Cole Gonzales
4
117
179
65.4
1566
8
2
8.7
391.5
151.4


Quincy Crittendon
7
190
265
71.7
1888
14
9
7.1
269.7
142.2


DJ. Smith
6
62
90
68.9
747
3
4
8.3
124.5
140.7



Voting obviously takes on some eye-test value and still has some focus on overall production. So hard to see how Bennett gets on anybody's ballot in all of these examples (yours and mine).

[FUBeAR]

I am not saying the QBR system is yours. I am saying it is clear with English with a higher QBR than the 1st team QB (and over Crittendon who should have probably been #2), that metric is old and it is clearly flawed. You just jump to it for the narrative it provides for the Mercer players.

But let's keep using it. Since this was for the SOCON 1st and 2nd team accolades, use your same methodology but now look at only conference games. That would end up with:



Name
GP
Comp
Att
Comp %
Yards
TD
INT
Yds/Att
Yds/Gm
Rtg


Taron Dickens


6



125
167
74.9
1398
12
3
8.4
233
165.3


Whitt Newbauer
5
61
108
56.5
986
9
2
9.1
197.2
157


Cole Gonzales
4
117
179
65.4
1566
8
2
8.7
391.5
151.4


Quincy Crittendon
7
190
265
71.7
1888
14
9
7.1
269.7
142.2


DJ. Smith
6
62
90
68.9
747
3
4
8.3
124.5
140.7



Voting obviously takes on some eye-test value and still has some focus on overall production. So hard to see how Bennett gets on anybody's ballot in all of these examples (yours and mine).
LOL - “The system is flawed. It’s old.” - you sound like Mrs. FUBeAR.

The SoCon is still in the NCAA. It’s still the accepted / tracked / published NCAA system. When the “95 FCS Football Podcast” goes viral, maybe you can get it replaced in favor of your preferred voodoo.

When they name the 2024 All SoCon (Conference games only) Team, please send FUBeAR a link to that media release.


FUBeAR likes the pick of Bennett. Didn’t like him so much at the beginning of the season, but he DEFINITELY became the straw that stirred the bellhops’ Planter’s Punches by the end of the season. Reminded FUBeAR of those FU QB’s in the 80’s (Sorrells, Charpia, Lamb, DeBusk, et al), who threw the ball 16 times a game, ran it 8, and were clearly the best QB’s in the SoCon. They CAUSED their Teams to win.

[wcugrad95]

I'll leave it with this. The voting clearly wasn't heavily weighted towards QBR (which is the metric you are trying to use to identify the best QB), as the #1 and #2 guys who actually were voted in had lower ratings. The "stirring the drink" must have been more of an indicator, and the votes say Gonzales and Bennett were the top straws. I just feel in reality Crittendon was probably the #2 guy, or that had Dickens played the entire season he might have been the #1. Agree with it or not, all-conference teams are still going to be heavily weighted toward the eye-catching stats for skill positions (yards, TDs, etc. for QB/RB/WR, INTs for DBs, sacks/TFL for LBs and lineman) and less towards the efficiency ratings. I don't always agree with that, but based on the choices actually made it was much more what the voters "felt" than anything else.

[FUBeAR]

This was fun to watch live...

https://twitter.com/PaladinFootball/status/1861801150401364464

[ElCid]

ETSU may have not made the playoffs, but their band made the Macy's parade in NYC. LOL. Still good PR.

[wcugrad95]

Really good PR honestly. Western had some really ugly years in football - some people thought it was a joke, but we had lots of people come to the games to see our band. They played the Macy's Parade and the Rose Parade (I think they did one of those twice). And it was a big deal - so kudos to ETSU's band.