AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 12, Fall 2024

[Preferred Walk-On]

With two Big Sky games in the 4th Qtr, I present to you this week's How They Fared.

A little bit of red (L's) in the top 25, with a fair amount of green (W's) in the ORV. Please take note of the opponents involved in some of these L's and W's, as what you think of them should provide a little bit of context for where to place teams, especially given this is week 12 with some of these teams fighting for their playoff lives.

I'll leave it at that, but CLICK HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-8lQ7knT0BEw5uezXHhtdA8EY2g-dvQ5lz5xvIRuYC8/edit?usp=sharing) to see the list, and comment in the thread to let us know how we should be thinking about some of these L's and W's.

[caribbeanhen]

Harvard should of been near 15 a few weeks ago so surely this will be the week

[caribbeanhen]

if Abilene Christian had a Defense would be top 8, they have talent

[wapiti]

Harvard should of been near 15 a few weeks ago so surely this will be the week

Two issues with ranking ivy teams.
They do not participate in the playoffs.
There ooc schedules are often weak making it tough to gauge how good they are.

[KPSUL]

if Abilene Christian had a Defense would be top 8, they have talent

I watched the last part of that game. I agree, the only defense I've seen play worse than ACU's this season was Tarleton's. Hard to know how great an offensive player is when they are being poorly defended. Conversely, a solid defense can reveal how good an offensive player really is. Case in point, Roland Dempster for Stony Brook vs UNH yesterday. Roland had good numbers, 85 yards on 21 carries, 4.0 yds per carry, good but not spectacular. But he wasn't getting those yards because defenders were not in position or not doing their jobs as I saw countless times as I watched the presumptive UAC Championship game. He got the yards by powering through first and second hits - you rarely saw anyone take him down solo. Had Roland Dempster been playing against Tarleton or ACU, he would have gained 50% more yardage on the same number of carries.

[caribbeanhen]

I watched the last part of that game. I agree, the only defense I've seen play worse than ACU's this season was Tarleton's. Hard to know how great an offensive player is when they are being poorly defended. Conversely, a solid defense can reveal how good an offensive player really is. Case in point, Roland Dempster for Stony Brook vs UNH yesterday. Roland had good numbers, 85 yards on 21 carries, 4.0 yds per carry, good but not spectacular. But he wasn't getting those yards because defenders were not in position or not doing their jobs as I saw countless times as I watched the presumptive UAC Championship game. He got the yards by powering through first and second hits - you rarely saw anyone take him down solo. Had Roland Dempster been playing against Tarleton or ACU, he would have gained 50% more yardage on the same number of carries.

all fair and good points but I would take my chances with RB Sam Hicks, he's got the it factor. I didn't see #23 Johnson yesterday but he's good

QB Maverick Mcivor looks really good too, he seems to get a lot of time to throw and WR Blayne Taylor is a beast.

Having said all that if they lose next week, they probably won't be making the playoffs but I would like to see them get a shot at it

[lionsrking2]

ACU won the autobid so they’re already in

[SFA 93]

I though ACU, the conference champions, got an auto bid to the playoffs, aren’t they already in regardless of next week?

[kalm]

if Abilene Christian had a Defense would be top 8, they have talent

Agreed. I saw that when they played Idaho. MacIver is a solid QB and he has weapons.

[POD Knows]

if Abilene Christian had a Defense would be top 8, they have talentTheir QB can sling it, he might be the best in the country. Tarleton coaching staff let them down again, terrible play calling on offense at the end of the game and what was with that D at the end, freaking weak.

[KPSUL]

Two issues with ranking ivy teams.
They do not participate in the playoffs.
There ooc schedules are often weak making it tough to gauge how good they are.

Montana State 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Merceyhurst 0-6
Utah Tech 1-9
Maine 5-5

Harvard's 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Stetson 1-6
UNH 7-4
Holy Cross 5-5


Looks like the edge goes to Harvard for OOC in 2024

The Ivies have generally upgraded their OOC opponents over the past 5 or so years. There is also more parity in conference play. Like everyone else they like to schedule one very likley win, and they like to play it as their ist game - understandably as they don't start until the 3rd week of the season. While they don't normally play FBS teams (Yale is an exception), they also play no Div 2 opponents.

[POD Knows]

Montana State 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Merceyhurst 0-6
Utah Tech 1-9
Maine 5-5

Harvard's 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Stetson 1-6
UNH 7-4
Holy Cross 5-5


Looks like the edge goes to Harvard for OOC in 2024

The Ivies have generally upgraded their OOC opponents over the past 5 or so years. There is also more parity in conference play. Like everyone else they like to schedule one very likley win, and they like to play it as their ist game - understandably as they don't start until the 3rd week of the season. While they don't normally play FBS teams (Yale is an exception), they also play no Div 2 opponents.
MSU also played an FBS team and won but I get your point, the rest of their OOC was pretty lame.

[caribbeanhen]

ACU won the autobid so they’re already in

that's good news, I knew somebody would clarify so thanks LK2!

[caribbeanhen]

Two issues with ranking ivy teams.
They do not participate in the playoffs.
There ooc schedules are often weak making it tough to gauge how good they are.

The Ivy presidents or whomever it is that thinks it's better for them to sit out of the playoffs should be publicly flogged ...xcoffeex

[Outsider1]

I watched the last part of that game. I agree, the only defense I've seen play worse than ACU's this season was Tarleton's. Hard to know how great an offensive player is when they are being poorly defended. Conversely, a solid defense can reveal how good an offensive player really is. Case in point, Roland Dempster for Stony Brook vs UNH yesterday. Roland had good numbers, 85 yards on 21 carries, 4.0 yds per carry, good but not spectacular. But he wasn't getting those yards because defenders were not in position or not doing their jobs as I saw countless times as I watched the presumptive UAC Championship game. He got the yards by powering through first and second hits - you rarely saw anyone take him down solo. Had Roland Dempster been playing against Tarleton or ACU, he would have gained 50% more yardage on the same number of carries.

When our offense is humming, even good defense have struggled against us because we have so many weapons and can spread the ball around. That kind of talent is hard to defend. Our offensive issue has been consistency. What you saw last night was both offenses playing up to a very hyped-up game and very long historical rivalry with championship implications. The defenses held when they could but struggled overall. I have been unhappy with our defense, over-all, all season long. They play too soft and weren't built to take down high powered offenses. Many of them are much younger than our offense. They too have been extremely inconsistent and highly vulnerable to big plays (out of place, playing too far off, missed assignments). My first wish is we did end up with too many injuries last night. We started dropping like flies towards the end. Second is that next week against SFA doesn't become a letdown game. Finally, the defense I have called out all season doesn't get burned in the playoffs. We did much better with TOP, ball protection and penalties last night. Hopefully we keep that up.

[wapiti]

Montana State 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Merceyhurst 0-6
Utah Tech 1-9
Maine 5-5

Harvard's 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Stetson 1-6
UNH 7-4
Holy Cross 5-5


Looks like the edge goes to Harvard for OOC in 2024

The Ivies have generally upgraded their OOC opponents over the past 5 or so years. There is also more parity in conference play. Like everyone else they like to schedule one very likley win, and they like to play it as their ist game - understandably as they don't start until the 3rd week of the season. While they don't normally play FBS teams (Yale is an exception), they also play no Div 2 opponents.

MSU also has the Big Sky to play. The Ivy as a whole is weak and not do much for sos for Harvard

[Catbooster]

Montana State 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Merceyhurst 0-6
Utah Tech 1-9
Maine 5-5

Harvard's 2024 OOC FCS opponent's Record vs FCS thru Week 12

Stetson 1-6
UNH 7-4
Holy Cross 5-5


Looks like the edge goes to Harvard for OOC in 2024

The Ivies have generally upgraded their OOC opponents over the past 5 or so years. There is also more parity in conference play. Like everyone else they like to schedule one very likley win, and they like to play it as their ist game - understandably as they don't start until the 3rd week of the season. While they don't normally play FBS teams (Yale is an exception), they also play no Div 2 opponents.
While I wouldn't attempt to argue that MSU had a tough OOC schedule, you conveniently forgot to mention the FBS game (as Pod pointed out) and that MSU wasn't scheduled to play Mercyhurst until Stephen F Austin cancelled late this summer. MSU had to scramble to get any FCS team to replace them.

Secondly, I'm not so sure you disproved the Wapiti's claim that the Ivies' ooc schedules are often weak, making it difficult to gauge how good they are. You simply showed that a highly ranked team also had a weak ooc schedule (excluding their FBS game).

IMHO, the question about the Ivies' ooc schedules has always been not only that they are not playing powerhouses, but also that they are generally very limited in their variety conference-wide. That they are generally so insulated from most of FCS. While MSU had a relatively easy ooc schedule this year, between all of the Big Sky schools there were multiple games played with many of the FCS conferences. And then we get a gauge of strength because of the interplay within the conference. The Ivies tend to only play from a limited pool of teams. So whether they are hard games or not, there is relatively little exposure to a large part of FCS football.

[kdinva]

just like prior weeks, like now, like next Sunday, all rankings 1-40 will be tough and make for great debating. one persons #7 may be another's #16, and so on.....one persons #33 will be someone else's #21

[caribbeanhen]

Harvard beat New Hampshire this year but KPSUL didn’t mention that. New Hampshires playoff push might get derailed by that loss.

[Outsider1]

An interesting note about ACU's UAC title last night. Abilene is a small city of only roughly 130,000 people, yet it has 3 private universities: McMurry, Hardin Simmons and ACU. Both McMurry and Hardin Simmons play DIII, McMurry in the SCAC and HSU in the ASC. ALL THREE universities either won their conference title outright or shared in the conference title. I don't think that has ever happened in the same year. McMurry went 7-3 (7-1) to share the SCAC title. HSU went undefeated 10-0 (6-0) to win the ASC. Of course, ACU has one more game, but sits at 8-3 (7-1).

[KPSUL]

When our offense is humming, even good defense have struggled against us because we have so many weapons and can spread the ball around. That kind of talent is hard to defend. Our offensive issue has been consistency. What you saw last night was both offenses playing up to a very hyped-up game and very long historical rivalry with championship implications. The defenses held when they could but struggled overall. I have been unhappy with our defense, over-all, all season long. They play too soft and weren't built to take down high powered offenses. Many of them are much younger than our offense. They too have been extremely inconsistent and highly vulnerable to big plays (out of place, playing too far off, missed assignments). My first wish is we did end up with too many injuries last night. We started dropping like flies towards the end. Second is that next week against SFA doesn't become a letdown game. Finally, the defense I have called out all season doesn't get burned in the playoffs. We did much better with TOP, ball protection and penalties last night. Hopefully we keep that up.

Good response! UNH is the opposite of ACU then, we have a very mature defense that has largely played together for years, the offense not so much. We had two starter on D from last year leave and the two guys we got via transfer have been excellent. I do think it is considerably harder to build a very good defense than it is an offense, and when an offense runs into a truly strong defensive team it can be quite a shock to them. Of course any team needs an offense that can move and hold onto the ball and score a reasonable number of points - no matter how good the D is.
Congratulations to your team for firming up a playoff spot.

[KPSUL]

While I wouldn't attempt to argue that MSU had a tough OOC schedule, you conveniently forgot to mention the FBS game (as Pod pointed out) and that MSU wasn't scheduled to play Mercyhurst until Stephen F Austin cancelled late this summer. MSU had to scramble to get any FCS team to replace them.

Secondly, I'm not so sure you disproved the Wapiti's claim that the Ivies' ooc schedules are often weak, making it difficult to gauge how good they are. You simply showed that a highly ranked team also had a weak ooc schedule (excluding their FBS game).

IMHO, the question about the Ivies' ooc schedules has always been not only that they are not playing powerhouses, but also that they are generally very limited in their variety conference-wide. That they are generally so insulated from most of FCS. While MSU had a relatively easy ooc schedule this year, between all of the Big Sky schools there were multiple games played with many of the FCS conferences. And then we get a gauge of strength because of the interplay within the conference. The Ivies tend to only play from a limited pool of teams. So whether they are hard games or not, there is relatively little exposure to a large part of FCS football.

I didn't conveniently fail to mention anything. My response addressed the fact that The Ivies rarely play FBS teams. It also focuses on teams scheduling OOC games looking for an easy win - we all do it, at least for one OOC opponent. I wouldn't use New Mexico as an example of scheduling a challenging opponent. they have been one of the weakest G5 teams for at least a decade. I'm surprised they even undertook the risk of playing Montana State. Again nothing wrong with that, I commend Montana St. for scheduling an FBS team they can be very competitive with, rather than taking a big payout from a Big10 or SEC opponent and sucking up a Div 1 loss.

My main point is that the Ivy teams are scheduling more competitive OOC games than they used to. This Season Brown played URI, Cornell played Albany, Penn played Delaware, Princeton played Mercer, Harvard played UNH and Holy Cross. I do not think that their OOC FCS schedules are notably different than the rest of the FCS. No one wants to try to slay a bunch of dragons before starting conference play.

[Professor Chaos]

Southeastern Louisiana and Southern Utah are two teams that both got just a handful of votes last week that are worth looking at if you haven't already - don't just discount them for having 5 losses.

[coriander_seed]

North Dakota lands 24th in Massey's current Ranking Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs).
Where do they land on your ballot?

[Chalupa Batman]

North Dakota lands 24th in Massey's current Ranking Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs).
Where do they land on your ballot?

They wouldn’t even make Casey Kasem’s top 40.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

They wouldn’t even make Casey Kasem’s top 40.

Love the reference brother. xlolx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Voters, we are missing a few of you this week. You have just over an hour left so get your ballot in ASAP.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Last reminder, just over 15 min. left to vote.

[coriander_seed]

They wouldn’t even make Casey Kasem’s top 40.
They made the AGS Top 40.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

They made the AGS Top 40.

Yes, but you were the only one of that opinion, and why I asked last week. They were well above your T40 btw. xlolx

[coriander_seed]

They were well above your T40 btw. xlolx

xcoffeex

[coriander_seed]

Yes, but you were the only one of that opinion, and why I asked last week. They were well above your T40 btw. xlolx
Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs) places North Dakota at 32.
Greater than 70% of the 28 ranking systems listed placed them in the Top 40.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs) places North Dakota at 32.
Greater than 70% of the 28 ranking systems listed placed them in the Top 40.

Yeah, that is a tool to use. Another tool to use is a losing streak etc. They were not a team worthy of a vote as you placed them last week. If you are voting for a sub .500 team in the twelfth week then I guess we just as well just include the composite ranking of schedules as a voter.

If you feel like letting the composite do the work for you and not put some of your own effort into looking it over then so be it but at some point I'm going to challenge you on it, and that argument you made will not work in the future though.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOW_kPzY_JY

[ElCid]

Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=fcs) places North Dakota at 32.
Greater than 70% of the 28 ranking systems listed placed them in the Top 40.

The composite has some screwy system incorporated in it. One has Butler as 23. And San Diego as 28. Sure it's one system, but some of these home grown algorithms are seriously suspect.

[coriander_seed]

...that argument you made will not work in the future though.
There ain't no future for me, sir. Please remove me from the voter's list. Do not send me another email.

[coriander_seed]

...some of these home grown algorithms are seriously suspect.
Think about those home grown brains that sit in our heads.

[MSUBobcat]

Think about those home grown brains that sit in our heads.

This is where the transparency and debate in the weekly poll threads comes into play. It exposes us to things we make have overlooked, not weighed appropriately or are just plain biased against, consciously or subconsciously. The computer algorithms have no such mechanism to improve.

I was a bit nervous about becoming a voter again next season, but knowing that someone voted for UND as recently as Week 11.... I think I can at least do better than that. xcoffeex

[Outsider1]

This is where the transparency and debate in the weekly poll threads comes into play. It exposes us to things we make have overlooked, not weighed appropriately or are just plain biased against, consciously or subconsciously. The computer algorithms have no such mechanism to improve.

I was a bit nervous about becoming a voter again next season, but knowing that someone voted for UND as recently as Week 11.... I think I can at least do better than that. xcoffeex

You would be great.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

There ain't no future for me, sir. Please remove me from the voter's list. Do not send me another email.

Okay, done.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

This is where the transparency and debate in the weekly poll threads comes into play. It exposes us to things we make have overlooked, not weighed appropriately or are just plain biased against, consciously or subconsciously. The computer algorithms have no such mechanism to improve.

I was a bit nervous about becoming a voter again next season, but knowing that someone voted for UND as recently as Week 11.... I think I can at least do better than that. xcoffeex

It was actually week 12 and he had them ranked at 17...the only points UND got that week. So as I do when things look odd like that I send a short note in the email vote asking if this is correct and stating why it might be the lesser choice than a few other teams not on the ballot. You know, just to try and do what you said above and have a voter take another look at it. Apparently that is not seen in the manner intended so if that is the case then it won't hurt my feelings if we lose a few voters that can't be questioned or make no defense of the position other than "composite".

You always have and make good arguments, we would be well served with you in the mix.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

There ain't no future for me, sir. Please remove me from the voter's list. Do not send me another email.

And btw, I don't want you to have any bad feelings or anything about this. It really was just a question to get a solid reasoning from you on the matter and I sure don't want to have anyone miffed at me over something like this. You were extremely diligent and had ballots that raised no eyebrows until the very end there. I'm sorry it ends with you leaving the group but it was not what I intended at all.

[MSUBobcat]

And btw, I don't want you to have any bad feelings or anything about this. It really was just a question to get a solid reasoning from you on the matter and I sure don't want to have anyone miffed at me over something like this. You were extremely diligent and had ballots that raised no eyebrows until the very end there. I'm sorry it ends with you leaving the group but it was not what I intended at all.

I agree that having a voter leave isn't beneficial and I shouldn't have piled on, so I deleted the meme post. Anyone who takes the time to put together a poll every week doesn't deserve to be ridiculed for a single team's placement, and I apologize coriander_seed. I do hope you'll reconsider.

[FUBeAR]

I apologize

https://www.gbnews.com/media-library/hell-is-frozen-overnight-temperatures-in-the-small-midwestern-town-of-hell-michigan-fell-to-25c.jpg?id=32889297&width=980&quality=90

[caribbeanhen]

https://www.gbnews.com/media-library/hell-is-frozen-overnight-temperatures-in-the-small-midwestern-town-of-hell-michigan-fell-to-25c.jpg?id=32889297&width=980&quality=90

It's too late to apologize, it's too late
I said it's too late to apologize, it's too late

OneRepublic

[MSUBobcat]

https://www.gbnews.com/media-library/hell-is-frozen-overnight-temperatures-in-the-small-midwestern-town-of-hell-michigan-fell-to-25c.jpg?id=32889297&width=980&quality=90

I feel like I've taken accountability when I cross the line as I've aged. Like Rick James, I used to be a habitual line stepper but as I've matured, I try not to be the a$$hole I used to pride myself being.

[MSUBobcat]

It's too late to apologize, it's too late
I said it's too late to apologize, it's too late

OneRepublic

Over my head. I know absolutely nothing about One Republic....

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I agree that having a voter leave isn't beneficial and I shouldn't have piled on, so I deleted the meme post. Anyone who takes the time to put together a poll every week doesn't deserve to be ridiculed for a single team's placement, and I apologize coriander_seed. I do hope you'll reconsider.

Eh, all voters probably need to be able to take a little questioning or the process doesn't work as well as it could either so I guess **** happens. So be it.

[caribbeanhen]

Over my head. I know absolutely nothing about One Republic....

me either but apparently they did that song

[Redbird 4th & short]

Over my head. I know absolutely nothing about One Republic....

consider yourself lucky .. its just a very annoying endless song, which you have obviously suppressed.