SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 12

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games on Saturday 11/16 - All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
FUBeAR
Already
Knows


FURMAN
ETSU
12P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55333_ETSU-vs-FUR_20241116/stats/)



SAMFORD
CHATTANOOGA
12:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55442_CHAT-vs-SAM_20241116/stats/)



VMI
WCU
1P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55415_WCU-vs-VMI_20241116/stats/)



THE CITADEL
WOFFORD
1:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55443_WOF-vs-CIT_20241116/stats/)



MERCER
ALABAMA
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/52386_ALA-vs-MER_20241116/stats/)




FUBeAR’s SoCon PowerRankings to follow later today…

[Reign of Terrier]

Power ranking

1) Mercer
2) Chattanooga
3) ETSU
4) Western
5) Wofford (with Odom)
6) Citadel
7) Samford
8) VMI
9) Furman

not a huge gap between 5 and 9.

Winners: Home Team Chalk.

Game of the week is probably Battle For The Big Dog Trophy.

[bonarae]

ETSU
UTC
WCU
Wofford
Tide

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games on Saturday 11/16 - All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
FUBeAR
Already
Knows


FURMAN
ETSU
12P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55333_ETSU-vs-FUR_20241116/stats/)



SAMFORD
CHATTANOOGA
12:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55442_CHAT-vs-SAM_20241116/stats/)



VMI
WCU
1P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55415_WCU-vs-VMI_20241116/stats/)



THE CITADEL
WOFFORD
1:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/55443_WOF-vs-CIT_20241116/stats/)



MERCER
ALABAMA
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/52386_ALA-vs-MER_20241116/stats/)




FUBeAR’s SoCon PowerRankings



FUBeAR’s
PowerRank


SoCon
Team


Massey Projected Overall Record


Massey Projected SoCon Record


Massey Projected SoCon Win %


Massey Projected SoCon Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details



Tier 1









1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford


Tier 2









2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Loss to Mercer, WCU



3

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Chatt, Mercer



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

7-5


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Mercer, ETSU


Tier 3









5

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

6-6


4-4


0.500


5

Wins over VMI, Samford, Furman, CIT



6

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

3-8


2-5


0.286


6

Wins over VMI, Mercer



7

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

4-8


2-6


0.250


7

Wins over VMI, Samford


Tier 4








8
VMI
1-11
1-7
0.125
9
Win over Furman











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UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

2-9


1-6


0.143


8

Win over CIT



FUBeAR is settling for SCIENCE cuz the Science has settled.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Not much action on the SoCon thread this week!

ETSU
UTC
WCU
The Citadel
Bama :(

the question can be: will Mercer score more than the 13 points that LSU managed to score vs Alabama?

[ElCid]

Not much action on the SoCon thread this week!

ETSU
UTC
WCU
The Citadel
Bama :(

the question can be: will Mercer score more than the 13 points that LSU managed to score vs Alabama?

I sure hope you are right about my Dogs. We are obviously much improved. But we are still very inconsistent. We either start great and fall apart, or fall apart early and fall too far behind to come back. We just can't seem to play a solid 60 minutes. Even so, I can see general improvement overall. It's just slow. If we put together a full game, we most certainly can win this week. We will see.

[BearDownMU]

I sure hope you are right about my Dogs. We are obviously much improved. But we are still very inconsistent. We either start great and fall apart, or fall apart early and fall too far behind to come back. We just can't seem to play a solid 60 minutes. Even so, I can see general improvement overall. It's just slow. If we put together a full game, we most certainly can win this week. We will see.

I really like your coach. Gonna be a good one, I think.

[ElCid]

I really like your coach. Gonna be a good one, I think.

I think I like him. Lots of our fans are impatient. They all think they would be better coaches. He brings a lot. Grad, prior Cid coach, NFL stink. If by year four we haven't achieved a winning record, I would begin to doubt him. If he can establish a consistent program with moderate success, I hope we can keep him long term. But who knows.

[Mocs123]

I think The Citadel is one of those places where it will take longer to rebuild than say a UTC or WCU as you're going to have to build with freshmen without many transfers. I think it's a hard place to win consistently but unlike VMI you have a grad school, some football history, and Charleston is nice place to recruit to.

- - - Updated - - -

I think The Citadel is one of those places where it will take longer to rebuild than say a UTC or WCU as you're going to have to build with freshmen without many transfers. I think it's a hard place to win consistently but unlike VMI you have a grad school, some football history, and Charleston is nice place to recruit to.

[ElCid]

I think The Citadel is one of those places where it will take longer to rebuild than say a UTC or WCU as you're going to have to build with freshmen without many transfers. I think it's a hard place to win consistently but unlike VMI you have a grad school, some football history, and Charleston is nice place to recruit to.

- - - Updated - - -

I think The Citadel is one of those places where it will take longer to rebuild than say a UTC or WCU as you're going to have to build with freshmen without many transfers. I think it's a hard place to win consistently but unlike VMI you have a grad school, some football history, and Charleston is nice place to recruit to.

That captures it fairly well.

[FU_Paladin08]

Week 12 Rankings:
Mercer
Chatt
ETSU
WCU
Wofford
Samford
CIT
VMI
Furman


Picks:
ETSU beats Furman
UTC beats Samford
WCU beats VMI
Bama beats Mercer
Wofford beats The Citadel

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR did a complete analysis of how every FCS Team ranks in the 47 Statistics that the NCAA Tracks/Compiles/Publishes. He assigned points from 123 to 1 inversely to a Team’s ranking in each category & cumulated those point totals to derive a single “Overall Stats Ranking” “(OSR)” for every FCS Team. He did not weight the 47 categories.

Below are the results for SoCon Teams.




FCS Rank


Team


Points




7

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4239




33

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

3376




36

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

3321




47

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

3238




64

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

2962




77

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

2791




84

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

2700




107

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

2186




109

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

2184




CIT and WCU are the surprises here, to FUBeAR.

CIT’s Special Teams results, as well as some Defensive stats really moved the bellhops performance up the chart.

Penalties were a big ‘sore spot’ for the Catamounts. But turnovers also dropped WCU below what we would expect based upon their W/L record.

Any thoughts on this?

FUBeAR has one example of ‘a thought’ … and it’s an early ‘reveal.’ This data analysis has pushed FUBeAR, who was 50/50 on that game, to go with CIT over Woffy in his picks this week. May even make a small investment in Coach Drayton’s BoysInBabyBlue.


Oh…in case anyone is interested, below are the Top 10 FCS Teams…




Rank


Team


Points




1

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

4583




2

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

4507




3

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

4453




4

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

4390




5

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

4340




6

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

4334




7

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4239




8

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

4213




9

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

4093




10

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

4088




Interesting notes here…

* Butler will not receive an At-Large bid and will not win the PFL AutoBid, so if this data ‘holds,’ the statistically best FCS Team will not be in the FCS Playoffs. Looks like the Bulldogs ran up their stats playing 3 Non-D1 Teams, so there’s some solid scheduling karma to that.

* Stephen F. Austin (SFA), is highly unlikely to win the Southland, and somewhat of a long-shot to make the Playoffs. Ahhh…looks like the Lumberjacks played 1 of those non-D1 ‘fake’ Teams that, most likely, based on the 77-0 score, padded their stats quite a bit.

* Neither Harvard nor Delaware will participate in the Playoffs this season

* While Montana State, barring a collapse in the next 2 weeks, certainly deserves a Top 4 Seed, FUBeAR recently heard National FCS pundits conjecturing that 4 Big Sky Teams would be in the Top 8 seeds - Montana State, UC-Davis (11th OSR), Idaho (52nd OSR), and Montana (22nd OSR). FUBeAR doesn’t see it, but we know how the Committee do.

* Pending the outcome of the Furman @ Mercer game on 11/23, Mercer definitely has a legitimate argument for a Top 8 (should be a LOCK) / Should be Top 5 / can make a case for a Top 4 Seed … but we know how the Committee do. FUBeAR will be shocked if the Bears (pending the outcome of the FU) game hang on to the #8 Slot where the Committee had them on 10/30, cuz we know how the Committee do.

[Mocs123]

Butler as the #1 Team in FCS???? xlolx

While it's probably good for the fans, their SoS leaves a little to be desired. Even VMI would probably take them to the woodshed.

They played:
Upper Iowa (D2)
Murray State (FCS- MVFL)
Hanover (D3)
Virginia Lynchburg (NCCAA)
Morehead State
Drake
Davidson
Stetson
Valparaiso
St. Thomas
Presbyterian

[FUBeAR]

Butler as the #1 Team in FCS???? xlolx

While it's probably good for the fans, their SoS leaves a little to be desired. Even VMI would probably take them to the woodshed.

They played:
Upper Iowa (D2)
Murray State (FCS- MVFL)
Hanover (D3)
Virginia Lynchburg (NCCAA)
Morehead State
Drake
Davidson
Stetson
Valparaiso
St. Thomas
Presbyterian
Yeah…said that…albeit with less detail


FUBeAR wrote

Looks like the Bulldogs ran up their stats playing 3 Non-D1 Teams, so there’s some solid scheduling karma to that.

[ElCid]

Yeah…said that…albeit with less detail

My very first thought was along the lines of Mocs123. If you were to take out the stats from PC and Mercer, NGU and The Citadel, UVA-Wise and ETSU, I believe it would change quite a bit. The FBS stats can skew things badly as well. Look at the UTC and Furman scores in their FBS games. Sure teams can have good and bad games against higher, and lower, tier teams. I'm sure we will drop two or three spots after our Clemson game. But I will almost guarantee that that SOCON list would reshuffle a bit if just scholly FCS games were used. The Citadel and WCU placement didn't surprise me a lot. It's why WCU is 5-5, even if they lost a lot of close ones to very good teams. And a few different plays in each of their games, a few changed stats from playing in desperation mode trying to pull out the W and they would move up the list. As an aside, they were in every game and could realistically be undefeated. We could be 6-4 with two more scores. And until this past week, we haven't been blown out. I'm just using an arbitrary four score loss as a blowout. We have been losing to good teams by 16 or 17 points. Furman and VMI have 3 and 4 blowout loses so they make sense.

So in summary, it's not just Ws and Ls, but who you are playing and what the results were. In other words, these stats you used aren't necessarily a very valuable measure when it comes to the big picture in regard to playoffs or seeding, etc. They might line up, maybe not.

One final tidbit, because I have been monitoring it, our punter is #1 in FCS. #2 in Div I and only a fraction of a yard behind the FSU punter. He could be playing on Sunday.

[FUBeAR]

One final tidbit, because I have been monitoring it, our punter is #1 in FCS. #2 in Div I and only a fraction of a yard behind the FSU punter. He could be playing on Sunday.
This is not a valuable measure when it comes to the big picture.

In looking at the relative barometric pressures, combined with local wind speeds, and humidity readings in the games he has punted, as well as playing surface differences, his performance is clearly inflated.

[kdinva]

ETSU 38; Furman 20
UTC 35; Samford 24
Wofford 21; The Citadel 19
Alabama 52; Mercer 20
WCU 31; VMI 13

[ElCid]

This is not a valuable measure when it comes to the big picture.

In looking at the relative barometric pressures, combined with local wind speeds, and humidity readings in the games he has punted, as well as playing surface differences, his performance is clearly inflated.

Yup.