2024 Week 11 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Just 2 weeks left until Selection Sunday and bubble teams continue to drop like flies as we lost 4 more teams are now down to 29 teams amongst 8 conferences vying for 21 available spots (the other 3 are autos are likely one-bid leagues) so there's still a lot to be decided but the bubble is getting weaker. To get a handle on it I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/fcs/ratings and clicking on each team there gives the details I'm using below. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining games I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).


Big Sky
UC Davis joined Montana St as a playoff lock and they'll play each other next week to see who gets the Big Sky auto - that winner is probably on track for a top 2 seed assuming they can win their season finale. Idaho is in pretty good shape being favored in both of their last 2 - they probably only need to win one to get in but winning both may get them a top 8 seed. Montana dropped a tough one to UC Davis and was also hurt by earlier opponents WCU (who they beat) and UND (who they lost to) falling off the playoff bubble - they can probably get in with a win vs Portland St even if they lose to Montana St in their finale but they might be unseeded (meaning no playoff home games) if that happens. NAU continues to take care of business and are favorites to win out and that would definitely put them in consideration but they'd be at the mercy of the bubble with a D2 win and no notable wins (although they would have respectable losses). It looks like the Big Sky will get at least 4 bids with a shot at 5 and could have as many as 3 in the top 8 seeds.

Locks
Montana St 10-0 (6-0) [1.39/0.61] - @UC Davis (67%), Montana (72%)
UC Davis 9-1 (6-0) [0.93/1.07] - Montana St (33%), @Sac St (61%)

Trending towards in
Idaho 7-3 (4-2) [1.42/0.58] - Weber St (70%), @Idaho St (72%)

Work left to do
Montana 7-3 (4-2) [1.10/0.90] - Portland St (82%), @Montana St (28%)

Must win out
Northern Arizona 6-4 (4-2) [1.54/0.46] - @UNC (95%), EWU (59%)


CAA
The CAA has sorted itself out quite a bit over the last couple weeks and is now looking like they'll get a minimum of 4 teams in (although no one is locked in yet) and maybe even 5. Richmond is in the driver's seat for the autobid as the only undefeated team in the conference (shockingly they don't have any of the other CAA teams on this list on their conference schedule) and winning out likely gets them into the top 8. Rhode Island may have been able to snag a top 4 seed had they beaten Delaware yesterday but now they're looking pretty iffy to even get into the top 8 and get a playoff bye even if they win out. Villanova has 2 pretty tough games left @Monmouth and vs Delaware but only need one to get in - I think they'd need to win out and get some help to get into the top 8. Stony Brook continues to defy the Massey odds and rack up wins - they only need one more to lock in although @UNH next week may be a tough place to do it. Of the two that must win out I think only UNH controls their own destiny - they should be in at 8-4 while William & Mary would be in for a sweat at 8-4 although to get there they'd get a high quality win against Richmond (which would probably offset their bad loss to Elon yesterday) but the rest of their resume is till pretty lackluster. Should the bubble implode Towson and Maine may have a shot as 7-5 teams if either wins out, Towson probably moreso than Maine but either would need a ton of help.

Trending towards in
Richmond 8-2 (6-0) [1.34/0.66] - @Hampton (75%), W&M (58%)
Rhode Island 8-2 (5-1) [1.49/0.51] - Albany (70%), @Bryant (80%)
Villanova 8-2 (5-1) [1.17/0.83] - @Monmouth (59%), Delaware (59%)
Stony Brook 8-2 (4-1) [0.64/1.36] - @UNH (22%), Monmouth (42%)

Must win out
New Hampshire 6-4 (4-2) [1.41/0.59] - SBU (78%), @Maine (62%)
William & Mary 6-4 (3-3) [1.29/0.71] - Bryant (88%), @Richmond (42%)


MVFC
SDSU joined NDSU as a playoff lock and both are tracking towards a top 3 seed. USD could likely play themselves into the top 3 if they win out but should they lose to NDSU in their season finale I think they're probably still in the top 8 but could get knocked down by only having 8 wins (they had a game cancelled earlier in the season) and they don't have much for quality wins. Illinois St took another step closer to the playoffs yeterday and have a realively easy game @Indiana St to get to 8 wins - normally that would be enough for an MVFC team but their OOC schedule is pretty awful and they miss USD and Missouri St in conference play so they probably need to win out to lock in and Massey still (for some reason) likes UND to beat them in the season finale although they may be in at 8-4 regardless. You'd think UND is dead to rights after their 3rd straight loss but with remaining games vs USD and @Illinois St I still think, as crazy as it may sound, they can play themselves back in at 7-5 although they'd probably need help and the way they're going it seems a virutal impossibility that they can win their last 2. It's looking like 4 bids in the MVFC's ceiling this year and just 3 is still a distinct possibility - although that lack of bids might be dulled by the fact that they could have 2 of the top 3 and 3 of the top 8 seeds.

Locks
NDSU 9-1 (6-0) [1.51/0.49] - Missouri St (86%), @USD (66%)
SDSU 8-2 (5-1) [1.83/0.17] - SIU (99%), @Missouri St (84%)

Trending towards in
USD 7-2 (5-1) [1.02/0.98] - @UND (68%), NDSU (34%)

Work left do to
Illinois St 7-3 (4-2) [1.32/0.68] - @Indiana St (87%), UND (45%)


SOCON
Mercer is the first team to truly punch their ticket to the 2024 playoffs as they have locked up the SOCON auto and might be tracking towards a top 4 seed if the Big Sky and MVFC teams ahead of them right now cannibalize themselves. After that the playoff contenders below them continue to dwindle. ETSU picked up a huge win over WCU (knocking the Catamounts out of playoff contention) and are solid favorites to win out which should get them in despite a sub-D1 win. UTC did what they needed to do by soundly beating The Citadel and are favorites win out which should get them in as well although that finale at Austin Peay won't be a gimme. It's still possible it's Mercer and Mercer alone as a playoff team out of the SOCON although Massey likes their odds to get 3 teams in but nothing can be assumed for either of the SOCON teams vying to get to 8-4.

Locks
Mercer 9-1 (6-1) [0.81/1.19] - @Bama (<1%), Furman (81%)

Must win out
East Tennessee St 6-4 (4-2) [1.60/0.40] - Furman (70%), @VMI (90%)
Chattanooga 6-4 (5-2) [1.42/0.58] - Samford (80%), @APSU (63%)


UAC
Tarleton got themselves back on track for a playoff spot yesterday but they can't be feeling super comfortable with 2 coin flip games, according to Massey, remaining - I think they'd be a very sketchy 8-4 bubble team if they lose both since they'd likely be losing to fellow bubble teams on top of losing games themselves. Likewise ACU has two con flip games remaining but I think one win in their final 2 probably gets them in. If they beat Tarleton next week they're the UAC auto and their finale against SFA could be a very intriguing week 13 OOC game if both are fighting for bubble position. UCA's loss to EKU means they join EKU in the group that must win out and I'm not even sure getting to 8-4 gets UCA in at this point although to get there they'd get a monster win over Tarleton. EKU is trending towards crushing some bubble dreams as they're very likely in if they can get to 8-4 with 2 FBS losses and back-to-back quality wins over Tarleton and UCA but Massey has them as an underdog at Austin Peay next week. Tarleton is probably the only UAC team than can crack the top 8 at this point but it's still plausible that this league could only get 1 bid or could have as many as 4 if things play out perfectly for them - there's a lot up for grabs in the UAC in the final 2 weeks. If the bubble implodes watch out for Southern Utah as well - they could be a 7-5 team that gets some consideration if they win out.

Trending towards in
Tarleton St 8-2 (5-1) [1.06/0.94] - ACU (54%), UCA (52%)

Work left to do
Abilene Christian 7-3 (6-1) [0.95/1.05] - @Tarleton (46%), @SFA (48%)

Must win out
Eastern Kentucky 6-4 (4-2) [1.10/0.90] - @APSU (41%), UNA (68%)
Central Arkansas 6-4 (3-3) [1.06/0.94] - SUU (58%), @Tarleton (48%)


OVC/Big South
SEMO's unexpected loss to Lindenwood doesn't do all that much to the conference outlook but it does deal a blow to their seeds chances as they're now probably unlikely to crack the top 8 after looking like they could get as high as #4 coming into this week - they're still in line for the auto but that season final @Tennesse St just got a little more interesting. UTM continues to take care of business and is very likely to win out which would get them in either as an at-large or as the auto. Tennessee St probably needs to win out to get in, which is a tall order according to Massey - they'd be in the conversation at 8-4 but I think they'll need help and Massey expects them to lose their final 2 so we'll see if they can even make an argument at all. It's still looking like the OVC gets 2 in but seeds for both SEMO and, by association, UTM took a hit today.

Trending towards in
Southeast Missouri St 8-2 (5-1) [1.63/0.37] - WIU (87%), @TSU (76%)

Work left to do
UT Martin 7-3 (5-1) [1.72/0.28] - TTU (83%), Lindenwood (89%)
Tennessee St 7-3 (4-2) [0.91/1.09] - @G-W (33%), SEMO (24%)


Southland
Incarnate Word clinches the auto with one win in their final 2 which seems highly likely at this point - winning out could even get them a top 8 seed and a first round bye. SFA took a crippling loss to East Texas A&M (formerly TAMU-CC) and they need to win out now with two very tough games remaining - the good news is those tough games can allow them to show the selection committee that they're playoff worthy but they need to improve in a hurry or they'll be a playoff afterthought. I still see SLU as a very interesting bubble team if they finish 7-5 - they have a win over SFA and their schedule has been brutal as their losses so far are to 2 FBS teams, SDSU, UIW, and Tarleton so they might be the first 7-5 bubble team to get a look. It's looking more and more likely that the SLC only gets the autobid but they still could snag an at-large if the cards fall right for them.

Trending towards in
Incarnate Word 8-2 (5-0) [1.47/0.53] - @SFA (57%), @TAMU-CC (90%)

Must win out
Stephen F Austin 6-4 (4-3) [0.95/1.05] - UIW (43%), ACU (52%)
SE Louisiana 6-5 (5-1) [0.51/0.49] - @Nicholls (51%)


Others
Still only NC Central on this list although I don't think they'll have much of a shot at an at-large bid though as they only have 11 games scheduled with one of those being a sub-D1 game so they can only get to 8-3 (7-3 vs D1 opponents). They also have an ugly loss to Elon who has long bowed out of playoff contention in the CAA which will likely hurt them. It'a possible Lehigh makes this list next week - if Bucknell beats Holy Cross (Massey has HC as a heavy favorite though) then Bucknell would be in line for the Patriot League auto so if that happens and Lehigh wins out they could be an at-large candidate at 8-3 although I think their lack of quality wins would hurt their argument quite a bit so they'd need a lot of help. The other 2 autobid leagues, the NEC and Pioneer, are all almost certainly just one bid leagues this year.

Must win out
NC Central 6-3 (2-1) [1.69/0.31] - Howard (82%), @DSU (87%)


The Field

So there's 14 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the final 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists include the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Montana St (12-0), UC Davis (10-2), Idaho (9-3), Montana (8-4), NAU (8-4)
CAA: 4 - Richmond (10-2), Rhode Island (10-2), Villanova (10-2), UNH (8-4), Stony Brook (8-4)
MVFC: 3 - NDSU (11-1), SDSU (10-2), USD (8-3), Illinois St (8-4)
SOCON: 2 - Mercer (10-2), Chattanooga (8-4), ETSU (8-4)
UAC: 0 - Tarleton (10-2)
OVC/Big South: 1 - SEMO (10-2), UTM (9-3)
SLC: 0 - UIW (10-2)

The other 3 autos:
Patriot: Lehigh (8-3)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
Pioneer: Drake (9-1)

The seeds (there's 16 now... woo-hoo!)
1. NDSU (11-1)
2. Montana St (12-0)
3. SDSU (10-2)
4. UC Davis (10-2)
5. Mercer (10-2)
6. UIW (10-2)
7. USD (8-3)
8. Richmond (10-2)
9. Idaho (9-3)
10. Villanova (10-2)
11. Tarleton (10-2)
12. Rhode Island (10-2)
13. SEMO (10-2)
14. UTM (9-3)
15. Chattanooga (8-4)
16. Montana (8-4)


Last 4 in: ETSU (8-4), Illinois St (8-4), Stony Brook (8-4), NAU (8-4)
First 4 out: SLU(7-5), ACU (7-5), EKU (7-5), SFA (7-5)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: NC Central (8-3), TSU (7-5), UCA (7-5), William & Mary (7-5)

The bubble weakened this week with losses by UCA, SFA, and W&M - although I'm not so sure the UAC is going to clear out so nicely as Massey projects with ACU, EKU, and UCA all finishing 7-5. There's more 7-5 teams that might get consideration (like Towson, Maine, and SUU) but I still don't see SLU making it and they would be the most attractive of that group for an at-large in this projected scenario. The seeds are still a mess - I think I might have UIW and USD over-seeded nf this scenario but it would be some tough decisions from about 6 through 12 or so. The lower seed lines are getting easier to crack as I'm now projecting a couple 8-4 teams to make the seeds.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[caribbeanhen]

Excellent read

looked at Massey earlier today and it looked like a different format with games missing ..

[lionsrking2]

Northern Arizona has win over a non Division I (non NCAA) so best they can be is 7-3 vs FCS. Best win is vs a team with a .500 record and their only two non-conference FCS games were a blowout loss vs UIW (we lost by three) and a win over a 1-win Utah Tech. There resume would be no better than ours if we beat Nicholls. We may be on the outside looking in right now but compared to NAU we have a case IMO.

[Professor Chaos]

Excellent read

looked at Massey earlier today and it looked like a different format with games missing ..
The main ratings page is all goofed up. I was able to get it to work by going to each individual conferences page. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.

[FUBeAR]

The main ratings page is all goofed up. I was able to get it to work by going to each individual conferences page. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.
FUBeAR’s Attorneys’ CEASE & DESIST demands are having their desired effect. Soon, we will see that Mr. Massey has corrected his algorithm that perpetually overrates Big Sky Teams.

Or the legal action will progress.

[uofmman1122]

I don't think the Griz will get a seed after we lose by 40 in Bozeman.

But hell, we may not beat PSU next weekend, so it might not matter.

[Professor Chaos]

Northern Arizona has win over a non Division I (non NCAA) so best they can be is 7-3 vs FCS. Best win is vs a team with a .500 record and their only two non-conference FCS games were a blowout loss vs UIW (we lost by three) and a win over a 1-win Utah Tech. There resume would be no better than ours if we beat Nicholls. We may be on the outside looking in right now but compared to NAU we have a case IMO.
SLU definitely has an argument over NAU. Not only was NAU's game against a non-D1 it appears Lincoln (CA) doesn't even have an athletics website to track their results (which have been brutal - they lost to Mercyhurst 66-0 yesterday) so they get no credit for that game in my book. However, like SLU, NAU doesn't have any bad losses but doesn't have any great wins either and despite SLU's brutal OOC schedule NAU has a slightly stronger SOS according to Sagarin. SLU played their common opponent in Incarnate Word much tougher than NAU did though. NAU does close out the season against EWU so that will give another common opponent to use as a comparison. It's splitting hairs between the two and could easily go the opposite order from what I have it.

[ElCid]

Excellent read

looked at Massey earlier today and it looked like a different format with games missing ..

I can't even get to any page of Massey. Site seems down. It was jacked up last night. Probably some fan of a slighted team hijacked it.

[Professor Chaos]

I don't think the Griz will get a seed after we lose by 40 in Bozeman.

But hell, we may not beat PSU next weekend, so it might not matter.
That win over Missouri St will come in very handy for the Griz I think. They have another good win over NAU as well and it's possible the WCU win gets a little bit of clout back if the Catamounts can win out to finish 7-5. Those losses to Weber and UND look pretty icky though so you may be right.


I can't even get to any page of Massey. Site seems down. It was jacked up last night. Probably some fan of a slighted team hijacked it.
Yeah, not even the conference pages work anymore. The whole thing is down right now - glad I got my numbers earlier today.

[FUBeAR]

SLU definitely has an argument over NAU. Not only was NAU's game against a non-D1 it appears Lincoln (CA) doesn't even have an athletics website to track their results (which have been brutal - they lost to Mercyhurst 66-0 yesterday) so they get no credit for that game in my book. However, like SLU, NAU doesn't have any bad losses but doesn't have any great wins either and despite SLU's brutal OOC schedule NAU has a slightly stronger SOS according to Sagarin. SLU played their common opponent in Incarnate Word much tougher than NAU did though. NAU does close out the season against EWU so that will give another common opponent to use as a comparison. It's splitting hairs between the two and could easily go the opposite order from what I have it.
Help a brotha out …

Does “SOS” stand for “Strength of Schedule” or does it really mean “Same OLD ****” … and the joke is on the rest of us.

”us” = we ALL know who we “us-es” are…and aren’t.

[Professor Chaos]

Help a brotha out …

Does “SOS” stand for “Strength of Schedule” or does it really mean “Same OLD ****” … and the joke is on the rest of us.

”us” = we ALL know who we “us-es” are…and aren’t.
You interpret however you feel is best but I was referring to strength of schedule.

Btw... Massey appears to have reclaimed his site from the Martian hackers and the main FCS ratings page along with all the conference pages are back up.

[caribbeanhen]

I can't even get to any page of Massey. Site seems down. It was jacked up last night. Probably some fan of a slighted team hijacked it.

maybe the MacongaBar LLC has "convinced" Mr. Massey to tinker around with inputs to create a more southern hospitality

[FUBeAR]

You interpret however you feel is best but I was referring to strength of schedule.

Btw... Massey appears to have reclaimed his site from FUBeAR’s Legal Team and the main FCS ratings page along with all the conference pages are back up.
FYP

[ElCid]

That win over Missouri St will come in very handy for the Griz I think. They have another good win over NAU as well and it's possible the WCU win gets a little bit of clout back if the Catamounts can win out to finish 7-5. Those losses to Weber and UND look pretty icky though so you may be right.


Yeah, not even the conference pages work anymore. The whole thing is down right now - glad I got my numbers earlier today.

It's back up.

[FUBeAR]

maybe the MacongaBar LLC has "convinced" Mr. Massey to tinker around with inputs to create a more southern hospitality
Pitch a shutout, dominate statistically, clinch the SoCon Championship, claim the 1st Playoff AutoBid…and Mr. Massey’s minions do this…



Team
Record
Δ


Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
9-10.900
-1



That’s it - gonna play hardball now. Y’all know Jay Sekulow (IYKYK) is a Mercer Bear.

RELEASE THE HOUNDS!!! … and Bears.

[caribbeanhen]

Work left to do
Abilene Christian 7-3 (6-1) [0.95/1.05] - @Tarleton (46%), @SFA (48%)

caught the last train to Clarksville yesterday and was about to cruise through the station when I saw something that caught my eye and put the remote down for a minute

It was the Abilene running backs and how the coach simply gets the ball into talents hands including simple dump off pass plays.... watched a good part of 3rd Qtr and 4th Qtr and was impressed but also realize they are not really a complete team but those RB's and the QB looked pretty good

Sam Hicks RB
139 Carries
849 yards
10 TD's

26 receptions
233 yards
2 TD's

now somebody is probably going to tell me Cmon man, he's an All American....

[Chalupa Batman]

Here's the bracket I would come up with, if the season were to end today (auto bids in BOLD):


Stony Brook/#16 Rhode Island @ #1 North Dakota State
Bucknell/#9 Richmond @ #8 Incarnate Word

Illinois State/#13 Southeast Missouri State @ #4 UC Davis
Eastern Kentucky/#12 Chattanooga @ #5 South Dakota

UT Martin/#14 Tarleton @ #3 South Dakota State
Drake/#11 Montana @ #6 Mercer

East Tennessee State/#15 Abilene Christian @ #2 Montana State
Duquesne/#10 Villanova @ #7 Idaho


Last 4 in (in alphabetical order): East Tennessee State, Eastern Kentucky, Illinois State, Stony Brook
First 4 out (in alphabetical order): Central Arkansas, Northern Arizona, Southeastern Louisiana, Western Carolina

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Here's the bracket I would come up with, if the season were to end today (auto bids in BOLD):


Stony Brook/#16 Rhode Island @ #1 North Dakota State
Duquesne/#9 Richmond @ #8 Incarnate Word

Illinois State/#13 Southeast Missouri State @ #4 UC Davis
Eastern Kentucky/#12 Chattanooga @ #5 South Dakota

UT Martin/#14 Tarleton @ #3 South Dakota State
Drake/#11 Montana @ #6 Mercer

East Tennessee State/#15 Abilene Christian @ #2 Montana State
Holy Cross/#10 Villanova @ #7 Idaho


Last 4 in (in alphabetical order): East Tennessee State, Eastern Kentucky, Illinois State, Stony Brook
First 4 out (in alphabetical order): Central Arkansas, Northern Arizona, Southeastern Louisiana, Western Carolina

If the season ended today Bucknell is the PL AQ.

[Chalupa Batman]

If the season ended today Bucknell is the PL AQ.

Thank you. I just went off current Massey rating but should've looked at how tiebreaker procedures would be applied at the moment. I have corrected and adjusted my bracket.

[ElCid]

Pitch a shutout, dominate statistically, clinch the SoCon Championship, claim the 1st Playoff AutoBid…and Mr. Massey’s minions do this…



Team
Record
Δ


Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
9-10.900
-1



That’s it - gonna play hardball now. Y’all know Jay Sekulow (IYKYK) is a Mercer Bear.

RELEASE THE HOUNDS!!! … and Bears.

You simply refuse to look at the big picture. Mercer beat a way down VMI. Great. Samford got thumped by Tenn Tech team that was #63. I forgot, how did Mercer do against Samford? Asked for another.

[dbackjon]

Northern Arizona has win over a non Division I (non NCAA) so best they can be is 7-3 vs FCS. Best win is vs a team with a .500 record and their only two non-conference FCS games were a blowout loss vs UIW (we lost by three) and a win over a 1-win Utah Tech. There resume would be no better than ours if we beat Nicholls. We may be on the outside looking in right now but compared to NAU we have a case IMO.

But you have lost 5 games. Blame the AD for scheduling two FBS teams.

[lionsrking2]

But you have lost 5 games. Blame the AD for scheduling two FBS teams.

That's beside the point: We're 6-3 vs FCS … Northern Arizona is 5-3 vs FCS. At the end of the day, if we take care of our business, we'll have two common opponents to compare if we're both on the bubble.

[dbackjon]

That's beside the point: We're 6-3 vs FCS … Northern Arizona is 5-3 vs FCS. At the end of the day, if we take care of our business, we'll have two common opponents to compare if we're both on the bubble.


NAU had years where the FBS losses kept us out to the playoffs. Your AD traded wins for cash.

[lionsrking2]

NAU had years where the FBS losses kept us out to the playoffs. Your AD traded wins for cash.

We've all had those years but it's irrelevant in this comparison because we both could finish with the same record vs FCS and have two common opponents. One could easily say your AD scheduled a layup instead of another FCS which could have helped separate you in a potential bubble comparison. But he chose to schedule a school that may or may not exist.

[Utgrizfan]

I think SUU has a better shot at an at large bid then most other teams if they win out due to having an FBS win

[dbackjon]

We've all had those years but it's irrelevant in this comparison because we both could finish with the same record vs FCS and have two common opponents. One could easily say your AD scheduled a layup instead of another FCS which could have helped separate you in a potential bubble comparison. But he chose to schedule a school that may or may not exist.

NAU has a hard time getting teams to Flagstaff, especially for one-offs. We've done very good making sure we have two-games series with other FCS teams (always one home, one away unless there is a scheduling issue for the other team). Lincoln was all we could get. I mean they would probably give NW State a good game

[dbackjon]

I think SUU has a better shot at an at large bid then most other teams if they win out due to having an FBS win

They do if they can get to 7-5. But again, 5 total losses

[lionsrking2]

They do if they can get to 7-5. But again, 5 total losses
Committee doesn’t see five losses. They’ll see four FCS losses and an FBS win for SUU.

[MSUBobcat]

Committee doesn’t see five losses. They’ll see four FCS losses and an FBS win for SUU.

History says otherwise, according to PC, and I believe that guy has a spreadsheet tracking this so I'm apt to believe him. It's happened once, an MVFC team that I seem to recall everyone calling BS about it even then. There could be a situation where an 8 win team is turned down over 7 losses (NAU absolutely could be that team), but, odds are against it.

[FUBeAR]

Committee doesn’t see five losses. They’ll see four FCS losses and an FBS win for SUU.
FWIW…

Sagarin and Massey both have that SUU “FBS win” (UTEP 2-8) over the 35th best FCS Team (right between SIU & Dartmouth (Sagarin) or SLU & Towson (Massey)) if we change that B to a C.

That’s a decent FCS win, but FUBeAR is of the opinion that the Committee doesn’t ignore the relative quality of an “FBS win” in their deliberations.

They will ignore SUU’s loss to FBS Utah though. You are absolutely correct about that.

[lionsrking2]

History says otherwise, according to PC, and I believe that guy has a spreadsheet tracking this so I'm apt to believe him. It's happened once, an MVFC team that I seem to recall everyone calling BS about it even then. There could be a situation where an 8 win team is turned down over 7 losses (NAU absolutely could be that team), but, odds are against it.

In 2016 (11-game schedule) 6-5 Illinois State got in over us at 7-4. ISU had 6 D-I wins (including a win over Big Ten Northwestern) which got them in over our seven D-I wins and their five FCS losses got them in over our three FCS losses – and deservedly so. Committees will reward FBS wins, ignore FBS losses and evaluate the FCS resumes and overall performance vs strength of schedule. The issue discussed here is if resumes are tied at 7-3 vs the FCS. NAU cannot get to 8 Division I wins. Had they scheduled a good D-II or a non-scholarship FCS, they might get some credit but not against a Lincoln, whatever they are. It will always be rare to take a 7-5 team over an 8-4 when schedules are relatively comparable but they are not in these examples.

[ngineer]

Who would have thought this time last year that Lehigh would be viewed on this date as having the "inside track" to the auto bid from the Patriot League?! At this point, we have to be seen as that, though I am not in any way even hinting that we have this locked in. Yes, we should beat Colgate at home based upon our comparable opponents. Again, Lehigh is very young, yet, at this time of year, that 'stuff' should be discarded. Accept the 'favored' label and run with it. At the same time, Bucknell should be viewed as an underdog to Holy Cross this weekend in Woostah. However, the Crusaders tough loss to Lehigh last week could have some demoralizing effect this week which the Bison could take advantage of. Bison have an excellent QB, so Cross will need to bring good pressure to force mistakes. Bucknell has their final game at home against Colgate, wherein they should be favored, while Lehigh will have its annual bloodletting match against Laughyette. The emotions of that game can really impact the outcome, and the Leotards will have major incentive to mess up Lehigh's plans for a championship win. If Bucky and Lehigh win out, the Bison will be 7-5 and Lehigh 8-3, with Bucky holding the tie-breaker between them based on a 38-35 win in OT, in which Lehigh lost on two turnovers and a kick off return. Lehigh dominated the game physically. With a loss to #16 FBS Army, and competitive loss way at Yale, (again with self-inflicted wounds), I think the Mountain Hawks have earned consideration for an at-large slot.

[MTfan4life]

Here's the FCS Wedge Bracketology:




1. NDSU


16. Illinois State



Drake







9. Montana



Abilene Christian




8. Incarnate Word







4. UC Davis


13. Richmond



Lehigh







12. Rhode Island



Stony Brook




5. South Dakota







2. Montana State


15. SEMO



East Tennessee State







10. Villanova



Duquesne




7. Mercer







3. SDSU


14. Tarleton



Northern Arizona







11. Tennessee-Martin



Chattanooga




6. Idaho

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

One historically significant streak Lehigh can continue this year.

Be the ONLY CURRENT FCS program to reach the 1-AA/FCS playoffs in EVERY decade, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s......

[ngineer]

Here's the FCS Wedge Bracketology:




1. NDSU


16. Illinois State



Drake







9. Montana



Abilene Christian




8. Incarnate Word







4. UC Davis


13. Richmond



Lehigh







12. Rhode Island



Stony Brook




5. South Dakota







2. Montana State


15. SEMO



East Tennessee State







10. Villanova



Duquesne




7. Mercer







3. SDSU


14. Tarleton



Northern Arizona







11. Tennessee-Martin



Chattanooga




6. Idaho



I love the idea, considering Richmond will be joining the PL next year. What a great way to start a new league rivalry!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I love the idea, considering Richmond will be joining the PL next year. What a great way to start a new league rivalry!

I'd prefer a shot at Villanova. I think they're beatable and since the Wildcats have absolutely owned the PL I would love the opportunity to battle them on the Main Line. Lehigh will get plenty of cracks at the Spiders in the coming years. Granted, the "Temple in me" always wants a crack at 'Nova; especially when they're vulnerable.

Still need two wins and a bit of help though....

[ngineer]

I'd prefer a shot at Villanova. I think they're beatable and since the Wildcats have absolutely owned the PL I would love the opportunity to battle them on the Main Line. Lehigh will get plenty of cracks at the Spiders in the coming years. Granted, the "Temple in me" always wants a crack at 'Nova; especially when they're vulnerable.

Still need two wins and a bit of help though....

Yes, playing 'nova is always fun. It's an easy ride and, yes, I think we can play with them. A trip to Richmond is certainly longer, and they appear to have gotten stronger as the year has played out. Fond memories of beating UR in the, then, I-AA playoffs in 1998, which was the first year of that dynasty run...

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Yes, playing 'nova is always fun. It's an easy ride and, yes, I think we can play with them. A trip to Richmond is certainly longer, and they appear to have gotten stronger as the year has played out. Fond memories of beating UR in the, then, I-AA playoffs in 1998, which was the first year of that dynasty run...

Boggles my mind that was 26 years ago! Even crazier is the fact Lehigh's D2 National Title was "only" 19 years prior! The context of time is fascinating as we get older.

I was at the Quarterfinal UMass game the following week. That day remains etched in my memory for so many reasons! First and goal from the UMass 9 with a minute left and they couldn't score....ugh. Win that game and Lehigh blows past Northwestern State in the Semfinals just like UMass did.

[Professor Chaos]

History says otherwise, according to PC, and I believe that guy has a spreadsheet tracking this so I'm apt to believe him. It's happened once, an MVFC team that I seem to recall everyone calling BS about it even then. There could be a situation where an 8 win team is turned down over 7 losses (NAU absolutely could be that team), but, odds are against it.
No non-MVFC team has ever been selected as an at-large with more than 4 losses. I'd tend to agree with lionsrking2 though about 2 FBS losses not hurting that much as long as they're still able to get to 7 D1 wins especially when compared to an 8 win team with one FBS loss and a sub-D1 win.

The popular theory is FBS losses don't hurt you in the eyes of the selection committee and that's true but they also don't help you. Every D1 win helps - had SLU scheduled another FCS game and only one FBS game they'd be in a better spot now (assuming they won that extra FCS game).

If it came down to 8-4 NAU and 7-5 SLU I'd take NAU but it's super close and that's just my opinion so could definitely see the argument either way.

[caribbeanhen]

Boggles my mind that was 26 years ago! Even crazier is the fact Lehigh's D2 National Title was "only" 19 years prior! The context of time is fascinating as we get older.

I was at the Quarterfinal UMass game the following week. That day remains etched in my memory for so many reasons! First and goal from the UMass 9 with a minute left and they couldn't score....ugh. Win that game and Lehigh blows past Northwestern State in the Semfinals just like UMass did.

the time period between year 4 and 5 is one year, or 20 % of your entire life
The time period between year 49 and 50 is one year or 2 % of your entire life

so you perceive time to be going faster as when your 50, 10 years is the equivalent of 1 year when you were 5

actually, I have no clue but that kind of make sense to me xcoffeex

[Chalupa Batman]

No non-MVFC team has ever been selected as an at-large with more than 4 losses. I'd tend to agree with lionsrking2 though about 2 FBS losses not hurting that much as long as they're still able to get to 7 D1 wins especially when compared to an 8 win team with one FBS loss and a sub-D1 win.

The popular theory is FBS losses don't hurt you in the eyes of the selection committee and that's true but they also don't help you. Every D1 win helps - had SLU scheduled another FCS game and only one FBS game they'd be in a better spot now (assuming they won that extra FCS game).

If it came down to 8-4 NAU and 7-5 SLU I'd take NAU but it's super close and that's just my opinion so could definitely see the argument either way.

In this case I would go with SLU. They would both be 7-3 against FCS teams and I think SLU's 2 best wins (SFA & Lamar) are slightly better than NAU's (Idaho State & Sac State). Also they have a common opponent in UIW and the Lions did much better (lose 34-31) than NAU did (lose 38-14). Of course, after NAU closes the season with EWU and there will be another common opponent for them to be compared by the decision will be muddled up even more. Either way I agree with you that it is super close.

[mvemjsunpx]

In this case I would go with SLU. They would both be 7-3 against FCS teams and I think SLU's 2 best wins (SFA & Lamar) are slightly better than NAU's (Idaho State & Sac State). Also they have a common opponent in UIW and the Lions did much better (lose 34-31) than NAU did (lose 38-14). Of course, after NAU closes the season with EWU and there will be another common opponent for them to be compared by the decision will be muddled up even more. Either way I agree with you that it is super close.

SELU's losses are worse than NAU's, though. They didn't just lose to SoDak State; they were humiliated at home even with Gronowski having a lousy game. They were also blown out by Southern Miss, one of the absolute worst teams in FBS.

Also… SUU has a better resume than either of those teams, IMO.

[Chalupa Batman]

SELU's losses are worse than NAU's, though. They didn't just lose to SoDak State; they were humiliated at home even with Gronowski having a lousy game. They were also blown out by Southern Miss, one of the absolute worst teams in FBS.

Also… SUU has a better resume than either of those teams, IMO.

I really don't think SLU's loss to SDSU is any worse than NAU's loss to UIW. And the Southern Miss game, while they were never really in it, wasn't really a blowout either as the Golden Eagles scored 2 4th quarter touchdowns to stretch the lead out to 25. Still not a "great loss" I guess but not a terrible one either. I know everyone looks at things differently, for me when teams are really close together like this I give slightly more weight to who teams have beat then who they've lost to.

[Professor Chaos]

SELU's losses are worse than NAU's, though. They didn't just lose to SoDak State; they were humiliated at home even with Gronowski having a lousy game. They were also blown out by Southern Miss, one of the absolute worst teams in FBS.

Also… SUU has a better resume than either of those teams, IMO.
SUU is a good call out - seen them mentioned a few times so had to go back and look at their schedule and I had dinged them a couple weeks ago for losing to Idaho St amongst their 4 FCS losses but suddenly that doesn't look like such a bad loss anymore. They also would probably have better wins than bubble teams like a 7-5 SLU, 8-4 NAU, or 8-4 Illinois St. They're definitely going to get a look if they can win out to finish 7-5.

[dbackjon]

In this case I would go with SLU. They would both be 7-3 against FCS teams and I think SLU's 2 best wins (SFA & Lamar) are slightly better than NAU's (Idaho State & Sac State). Also they have a common opponent in UIW and the Lions did much better (lose 34-31) than NAU did (lose 38-14). Of course, after NAU closes the season with EWU and there will be another common opponent for them to be compared by the decision will be muddled up even more. Either way I agree with you that it is super close.


Agreed that it will be super close. Of course both teams need to win out or neither has a shot.


Some years it seems like there are only 16-20 teams deserving. This year, there are probably 28-32 teams that can make a case.

[lionsrking2]

I really don't think SLU's loss to SDSU is any worse than NAU's loss to UIW. And the Southern Miss game, while they were never really in it, wasn't really a blowout either as the Golden Eagles scored 2 4th quarter touchdowns to stretch the lead out to 25. Still not a "great loss" I guess but not a terrible one either. I know everyone looks at things differently, for me when teams are really close together like this I give slightly more weight to who teams have beat then who they've lost to.

We were very much in the Southern Miss game if you actually watched it or followed what happened. We couldn't get out of our own way early in the season and that game was a microcosm. Bottom line is we're playing much better now that the QB situation is settled and we're not beating ourselves - other than UIW when we gave them two defensive scores in a three point loss.

Reality is none of us may get in but if the final spot comes down to teams with 7-3 records vs the FCS, we should be in the mix as much or more than anyone.

[MSUBobcat]

No non-MVFC team has ever been selected as an at-large with more than 4 losses. I'd tend to agree with lionsrking2 though about 2 FBS losses not hurting that much as long as they're still able to get to 7 D1 wins especially when compared to an 8 win team with one FBS loss and a sub-D1 win.

The popular theory is FBS losses don't hurt you in the eyes of the selection committee and that's true but they also don't help you. Every D1 win helps - had SLU scheduled another FCS game and only one FBS game they'd be in a better spot now (assuming they won that extra FCS game).

If it came down to 8-4 NAU and 7-5 SLU I'd take NAU but it's super close and that's just my opinion so could definitely see the argument either way.

Seeing that it was likely NAU would win out a few weeks ago, I have been of the mind that it wouldn't be enough with that Lincoln game (scheduling them is dumber than 2 FBS, and yes I heard dback's explanation of it). With the bubble softening as it has, both NAU and SELA have cases to be included. Winning 5 straight looks good to the committee, but 6 of 7 is trending in the right direction also. Neither has a real good win, but no bad losses either.

[FUBeAR]

So FUBeAR was responding to a(nother) totally not sarcastic post from a Big Sky fan and started thinking about something.

We’re about 90% done with the regular season and Teams have played a lot of games vs. great teams, good teams, ok teams, and sucky teams…and each of those games produce outcomes and various statistical results which we all know are important and indicative, yet, admittedly, not dispositive (for many reasons), of the quality of Teams. We all, if we are fans, look at box scores, and we cite Team and Individual Stats frequently.

Heck, the NCAA compiles, tracks, and reports 47 different statistics for all 120+ FCS Teams. They must have some value. And then FUBeAR started wondering if there might be a good way to fully assess which Teams are really excelling across ALL of the stats, instead of “cherry-picking” a few.

So…FUBeAR looked at each of the 47 categories, and ‘pulled’ the Top 10 Teams (plus ties) in each of those. If a Team was the highest ranked in a category, FUBeAR assigned them 10 points. 2nd best rec’d 9 points. 3rd / 8 … and so on. No, FUBeAR didn’t weight the categories. For a mo’bettah analysis, someone might want to do that. But, if we take the Top 10 and evaluate/assign value to the level of performance, we are getting a pretty broad-based overview. Anyway - what you see below are the summed point values assigned and ranked. 115 Teams were in the Top 10 in at least 1 category.

If you take out the non-Schollies & Ivies, this analysis / ranking starts to look a lot like a list of Teams in the convo for Seeds. Not perfectly so, but enough to make FUBeAR say … hmmm 🤔?

ENJOY!




Rank


Team


Score Total




1

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

141




2

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

138




3

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

124




4

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

121




5

Dayton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dayton)

99




6

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

97




7

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

96




8

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

86




9

Eastern Wash. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-wash)

79




10

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

74




10

UIW (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uiw)

74




12

Columbia (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/columbia)

71




12

Tarleton St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tarleton-st)

71




14

UC Davis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uc-davis)

65




15

Missouri St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/missouri-st)

55




16

Youngstown St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/youngstown-st)

53




17

Grambling (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/grambling)

50




17

Nicholls (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nicholls-st)

50




19

Northern Colo. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-colo)

47




20

Idaho St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho-st)

46




21

Lehigh (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lehigh)

43




22

Alabama St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-st)

42




22

Davidson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/davidson)

42




24

Abilene Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/abilene-christian)

41




25

Southeastern La. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeastern-la)

40




26

Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

39




26

Jackson St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/jackson-st)

39




26

Tennessee Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-tech)

39




29

Dartmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dartmouth)

38




29

Montana (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana)

38




29

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

38




32

N.C. Central (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-central)

37




33

Penn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/penn)

36




33

South Carolina St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-carolina-st)

36




33

Stony Brook (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stony-brook)

36




36

Idaho (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho)

35




37

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

34




38

Monmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/monmouth)

33




38

Villanova (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/villanova)

33




40

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

32




40

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

32




40

Yale (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/yale)

32




43

Duquesne (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/duquesne)

31




43

Northern Ariz. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-ariz)

31




45

Morgan St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morgan-st)

30




45

Robert Morris (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/robert-morris)

30




45

Southern U. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-u)

30




48

McNeese (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mcneese)

29




48

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

29




50

Merrimack (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/merrimack)

28




50

Morehead St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morehead-st)

28




52

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

27




52

Georgetown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/georgetown)

27




52

San Diego (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/san-diego)

27




55

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

26




55

UT Martin (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ut-martin)

26




57

Princeton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/princeton)

25




57

Saint Francis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/st-francis-pa)

25




57

Southern Utah (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-utah)

25




60

Drake (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/drake)

24




60

Tennessee St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-st)

24




62

Cornell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cornell)

23




62

Indiana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/indiana-st)

23




62

Wagner (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wagner)

23




65

Northwestern St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northwestern-st)

20




65

Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

20




65

Southern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-ill)

20




68

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bethune-cookman)

19




68

Gardner-Webb (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/gardner-webb)

19




68

Valparaiso (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/valparaiso)

19




71

North Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota)

18




72

Charleston So. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/charleston-so)

17




72

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

17




72

Weber St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st)

17




72

William & Mary (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/william-mary)

17




76

Sacred Heart (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacred-heart)

16




76

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

16




78

Prairie View (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/prairie-view)

15




78

Presbyterian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/presbyterian)

15




78

Southeast Mo. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeast-mo-st)

15




81

Alabama A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-am)

14




81

Bucknell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bucknell)

14




81

Norfolk St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/norfolk-st)

14




84

UNI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uni)

13




85

Alcorn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alcorn)

12




85

Eastern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill)

12




85

Fordham (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/fordham)

12




85

Lamar University (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lamar)

12




85

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

12




90

Hampton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/hampton)

11




90

Sacramento St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacramento-st)

11




92

Delaware St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware-st)

10




92

Florida A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/florida-am)

10




92

Holy Cross (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/holy-cross)

10




92

Howard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/howard)

10




92

Illinois St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/illinois-st)

10




92

LIU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/long-island)

10




92

North Ala. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-ala)

10




92

UAlbany (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/albany-ny)

10




92

Western Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-ill)

10




101

Colgate (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/colgate)

9




102

New Hampshire (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/new-hampshire)

8




102

Towson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/towson)

8




104

Ark.-Pine Bluff (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ark-pine-bluff)

7




104

Central Ark. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-ark)

7




106

Elon (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/elon)

5




106

Maine (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/maine)

5




106

Marist (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/marist)

5




106

Murray St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/murray-st)

5




106

Portland St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/portland-st)

5




111

Cal Poly (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cal-poly)

4




111

Lafayette (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lafayette)

4




111

Texas Southern (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/texas-southern)

4




114

Stetson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stetson)

2




115

Utah Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/utah-tech)

1

[Preferred Walk-On]

Heck, the NCAA compiles, tracks, and reports 47 different statistics for all 120+ FCS Teams. They must have some value. And then FUBeAR started wondering if there might be a good way to fully assess which Teams are really excelling across ALL of the stats, instead of “cherry-picking” a few.

So…FUBeAR looked at each of the 47 categories, and ‘pulled’ the Top 10 Teams (plus ties) in each of those. If a Team was the highest ranked in a category, FUBeAR assigned them 10 points. 2nd best rec’d 9 points. 3rd / 8 … and so on.

If you take out the non-Schollies & Ivies, this analysis / ranking starts to look a lot like a list of Teams in the convo for Seeds. Not perfectly so, but enough to make FUBeAR say … hmmm

FUBeAR, two questions:


Why take out non-schollies & Ivies? The point of your stats is that they are what they are, I think.
Why only consider top 10 in each category? Why not all of them? By virtue of limiting them, one is indeed "cherry-picking", or at the very least, biasing the analysis. For example, let's say a team is #11 in all categories (I know, not realistic, just hypothetical). How would this team end up if we assigned 129 pt for #1 in each category all the way down to 1 pt for #129? I wonder what that might look like then, and without looking, I suspect that Mercer is not #1, Dayton is not #5, and Butler is not #8. I even doubt that North Dakota State would really be #2, Montana State #3, South Dakota #4, or South Dakota State #6.

FUBeAR must also wonder about seeds as well, as while Mercer might fit a desired outcome, doesn't the part that makes FUBeAR go "hmmm" also reinforce the idea that everyone else might not be that wrong (whether or not they have SOS bias). Food for thought.

[Reign of Terrier]

I'll say it with my whole chest: If Richmond gets the autobid, that puts to rest in my mind that CAA is now an overrated conference that has jerry-rigged itself into getting maximal playoff spots.

If their one FCS loss is to Wofford, that just makes the whole damn conference look bad. Wofford is no better than the fourth best team in the socon on its best day (maybe we would have beaten Western with Odom, who knows), but is literally .500 at best this year.

I saw that game in person. It made me think Wofford was a playoff contender...and we weren't. Maybe we would have been had our QB not missed 3 or 4 games. But regardless Richmond would get maybe 3 wins in the socon. Chattanooga, Mercer, and ETSU were all a tier higher than Richmond.

If Wofford had to play in the CAA, we would be sitting at 8-3 or so, no doubt in my mind.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR, two questions:


Why take out non-schollies & Ivies? The point of your stats is that they are what they are, I think.
Why only consider top 10 in each category? Why not all of them?
By virtue of limiting them, one is indeed "cherry-picking", or at the very least, biasing the analysis. For example, let's say a team is #11 in all categories (I know, not realistic, just hypothetical). How would this team end up if we assigned 129 pt for #1 in each category all the way down to 1 pt for #129? I wonder what that might look like then,
and without looking, I suspect that Mercer is not #1, Dayton is not #5, and Butler is not #8. I even doubt that North Dakota State would really be #2, Montana State #3, South Dakota #4, or South Dakota State #6.
FUBeAR must also wonder about seeds as well, as while Mercer might fit a desired outcome, doesn't the part that makes FUBeAR go "hmmm" also reinforce the idea that everyone else might not be that wrong (whether or not they have SOS bias). Food for thought.

1) They are not “taken out” in the data analysis, just ‘removed’ for the pondered discussion. Thought that seemed pretty clear. No? The PFL is, essentially, a D3 Football League. Love ‘em and loved the year Mercer was playing PFL in 2013, but FUBeAR doesn’t think a discussion of an analysis is improved by arguing over Apples vs. Kumquats. And, in reality, a 12-0 PFL Team will not receive a Top 8 Seed AND the Ivies don’t participate in the Playoffs / get Seeds … which is what we are all thinking about at this point in the season, as stated in the OP.

2) Because FUBeAR has already used up his quota on IBM’s Quantum Computer-for-hire. Manipulating election results just guzzles qubits! Almost 600 rows of data was plenty to deal with on FUBeAR’s iPad using SHEETS. Knock yourself out, brother https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/742

3) IT IS NOT CHERRY-PICKING to limit a data set for analysis using an unbiased, stated, structured methodology, as FUBeAR did here. The intent was to analyze ‘excellence’ - Leading performers. Otherwise, all we have is records and pre-conceived notions fueled with voodoo math, confirmation bias, and motivated reasoning. This goes deeper, is 100% objective and highlights Teams that have put up high-level results across broad criteria. The analysis you described would be better and you could probably assign category weighting as well - “Scoring Defense” is probably more important than “Fewest Penalties” - again…go for it. Happy to send the dataset if you want to start with that.

4) What objective data informs this suspicion of yours?

5) Struggling with what you mean here…Not a lot of dissent that NDSU, MTSt, and SDSU are the Top 3 Teams. Thought it was interesting that they also ‘rose to the top’ in this analysis…just as SDak did…AND…Mercer. That’s the hmmm 🤔 part?

Oh…btw, in compiling the data, FUBeAR did note that Mercer WAS, in fact, #11 in at least 2 categories. Cherry-Picking would have been, after seeing that, to revise the analysis to include, say, Top 16 Teams, justifying it by saying it’s the number of Seeds this year. THAT’S Cherry-Picking! Not what FUBeAR did.

[AggiePride]

1) They are not “taken out” in the data analysis, just ‘removed’ for the pondered discussion. Thought that seemed pretty clear. No? The PFL is, essentially, a D3 Football League. Love ‘em and loved the year Mercer was playing PFL in 2013, but FUBeAR doesn’t think a discussion of an analysis is improved by arguing over Apples vs. Kumquats. And, in reality, a 12-0 PFL Team will not receive a Top 8 Seed AND the Ivies don’t participate in the Playoffs / get Seeds … which is what we are all thinking about at this point in the season, as stated in the OP.

2) Because FUBeAR has already used up his quota on IBM’s Quantum Computer-for-hire. Manipulating election results just guzzles qubits! Almost 600 rows of data was plenty to deal with on FUBeAR’s iPad using SHEETS. Knock yourself out, brother https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/742

3) IT IS NOT CHERRY-PICKING to limit a data set for analysis using an unbiased, stated, structured methodology, as FUBeAR did here. The intent was to analyze ‘excellence’ - Leading performers. Otherwise, all we have is records and pre-conceived notions fueled with voodoo math, confirmation bias, and motivated reasoning. This goes deeper, is 100% objective and highlights Teams that have put up high-level results across broad criteria. The analysis you described would be better and you could probably assign category weighting as well - “Scoring Defense” is probably more important than “Fewest Penalties” - again…go for it. Happy to send the dataset if you want to start with that.

4) What objective data informs this suspicion of yours?

5) Struggling with what you mean here…Not a lot of dissent that NDSU, MTSt, and SDSU are the Top 3 Teams. Thought it was interesting that they also ‘rose to the top’ in this analysis…just as SDak did…AND…Mercer. That’s the hmmm 🤔 part?

Oh…btw, in compiling the data, FUBeAR did note that Mercer WAS, in fact, #11 in at least 2 categories. Cherry-Picking would have been, after seeing that, to revise the analysis to include, say, Top 16 Teams, justifying it by saying it’s the number of Seeds this year. THAT’S Cherry-Picking! Not what FUBeAR did.

My only question is did you include Mercer’s number 1 ranking for points given up to powerhouse Samford?

[Reign of Terrier]

But thats been true since 2011 .. right ? Most years the CAA would get 4 to 6 teams, many times being paired at home with the 4 usually (not always) weak autobid conferences out east (NEC, Patriot, Big South, MEAC). Yet they still underperform their bid count regularly once they play a legit bid game. They legit dominated the 2000's, but have lived off of that for too long into the 2010s and still in 2020's with help from the UNH AD. Their aggregate playoff record is all the proof needed. IN meantime, MVFC has had to share the one weak autobid conference (Pioneer) with the Big Sky .. so our usual 4 to 6 teams with Big Sky's 4 to 5 teams (last 5 years) get one weak auto bid to share. While the CAA's 4 to 6 teams share up to 4 weak auto bids most years. Yet the MVFC playoff record excl NDSU is around .650 since 2010, and even before SDSU started dominating. And the Big Sky has really stepped it up the last 4 to 5 years as well.

I came this close to flaming you because I thought you were about to go off on Socon in the semis. REGARDLESS. Yes, I do think you are pretty much correct, and I think I’ve been saying it for years. The CAA has benefited bigly from home field advantage, getting easy first round draws (NEC/Patriot/Pioneer), and not playing each other for year. In the mid-to-late 2010s, JMU basically owned the conference and no one stepped up. Now that they are gone, the dynamic is pretty obvious. If you have more bids and you don’t have an elite team, you’re just mathematically more likely to make it to the semifinals.

At this point, the underlying “hack” that the CAA is exploiting is pretty obvious and all it took was a mediocre Wofford team to smack around their best team by conference ranking. I think Rhode Island has only played a few teams with a winning record for instance.

Like, I have no delusions that the Socon is better than the DSUs or Montanas, but just looking at the Big Sky as well, they ALSO benefit from this “not playing everyone dynamic.” I’m not saying those teams are bad and don’t deserve a bid, but I think the MVFC clearly beats itself up and everyone kind of knows it, and so they’re more likely to get deferrence when it’s a bubble MVFC vs BS team (or at least I think so?). All I’m advocating for is recognizing the dynamic with the socon and CAA. Because I think it’s clear that the CAA/Socon are the second tier of the FCS, and it’s the same dynamic of the MVFC/Big sky. The Socon is better. Mercer would smack anyone in the CAA. Maybe Chattanooga too.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I came this close to flaming you because I thought you were about to go off on Socon in the semis. REGARDLESS. Yes, I do think you are pretty much correct, and I think I’ve been saying it for years. The CAA has benefited bigly from home field advantage, getting easy first round draws (NEC/Patriot/Pioneer), and not playing each other for year. In the mid-to-late 2010s, JMU basically owned the conference and no one stepped up. Now that they are gone, the dynamic is pretty obvious. If you have more bids and you don’t have an elite team, you’re just mathematically more likely to make it to the semifinals.

At this point, the underlying “hack” that the CAA is exploiting is pretty obvious and all it took was a mediocre Wofford team to smack around their best team by conference ranking. I think Rhode Island has only played a few teams with a winning record for instance.

Like, I have no delusions that the Socon is better than the DSUs or Montanas, but just looking at the Big Sky as well, they ALSO benefit from this “not playing everyone dynamic.” I’m not saying those teams are bad and don’t deserve a bid, but I think the MVFC clearly beats itself up and everyone kind of knows it, and so they’re more likely to get deferrence when it’s a bubble MVFC vs BS team (or at least I think so?). All I’m advocating for is recognizing the dynamic with the socon and CAA. Because I think it’s clear that the CAA/Socon are the second tier of the FCS, and it’s the same dynamic of the MVFC/Big sky. The Socon is better. Mercer would smack anyone in the CAA. Maybe Chattanooga too.

I love when these 3 get lumped together out of ignorance. The PL's playoff history/place in 1-AA/FCS is nothing like those two conferences. This is not a shot, the data supports a significant variance.

[Preferred Walk-On]

1) They are not “taken out” in the data analysis, just ‘removed’ for the pondered discussion. Thought that seemed pretty clear. No? The PFL is, essentially, a D3 Football League. Love ‘em and loved the year Mercer was playing PFL in 2013, but FUBeAR doesn’t think a discussion of an analysis is improved by arguing over Apples vs. Kumquats. And, in reality, a 12-0 PFL Team will not receive a Top 8 Seed AND the Ivies don’t participate in the Playoffs / get Seeds … which is what we are all thinking about at this point in the season, as stated in the OP.
The Pioneer does send a team to the playoffs. Perhaps your analysis is suggesting (might suggest) this should be a more-than-one-bid league. That is why they should not be "removed". Ivies should also not be removed, because this provides a comparison point, especially for the few teams that may have played an Ivy and might be in playoff consideration.

My point here is that as a scientist, we deal with data sets and there are outliers that we maybe should (or should not) ignore. For example, and there is no political agenda here (so please don't turn it into one), the COVID vaccine has a measured rate of inflammatory heart disease of 2.3 in 100,000 people vaccinated (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8755376/). Just like COVID infection has a measured rate of heart inflammation approximately 7 times that of those vaccinated (https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.951314/full). That said, that is ~15 in 100,000 people. My point: significance is in the eye of the beholder, and just because less than 0.002% show heart inflammation after vaccination, does not mean that it does not matter. Just like one could also say that 0.002% is much lower than the mortality rate for COVID, which some might also argue is low enough to matter or not matter. It is simply perspective and interpretation of data. Applying this to football, that is why considering only the top 7.75% of teams in any category is perhaps not the most rigorous way to consider the data.


2) Because FUBeAR has already used up his quota on IBM’s Quantum Computer-for-hire. Manipulating election results just guzzles qubits! Almost 600 rows of data was plenty to deal with on FUBeAR’s iPad using SHEETS. Knock yourself out, brother https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fcs/current/team/742
Got a kick out of this! I think this might be able to be done via a Google Sheet (I do this with a few columns of data for other things, but would have to play around with 47 columns, or whatever you said were the number of stats).


3) IT IS NOT CHERRY-PICKING to limit a data set for analysis using an unbiased, stated, structured methodology, as FUBeAR did here. The intent was to analyze ‘excellence’ - Leading performers. Otherwise, all we have is records and pre-conceived notions fueled with voodoo math, confirmation bias, and motivated reasoning. This goes deeper, is 100% objective and highlights Teams that have put up high-level results across broad criteria. The analysis you described would be better and you could probably assign category weighting as well - “Scoring Defense” is probably more important than “Fewest Penalties” - again…go for it. Happy to send the dataset if you want to start with that.
Cherry-picking was perhaps not the best way to describe it; however, without including ALL data, it will always have a level of bias that including all data would not. If you add in "weighting", that would also introduce bias. Heck, then one might as well use SOS. ;)


4) What objective data informs this suspicion of yours?
The objective data has yet to determine this; however, since I do believe that strength of opponents (and thus schedule) differs interconference and can even have a moderate-to-great disparity intraconference, some teams might make higher appearances in statistical items, such that one might have at least a little WTF response. Is it possible that for NDSU, SDSU, MTST, USD, UCD, etc, that while consensus is that they are at the top, essentially averaging out all the statistical categories might not necessarily reflect that...and it might even favor those good teams in a perhaps not so good conference (but without SOS, there would be no such thing as a not so good conference, right?). At this point, it is speculative, nothing more.


5) Struggling with what you mean here…Not a lot of dissent that NDSU, MTSt, and SDSU are the Top 3 Teams. Thought it was interesting that they also ‘rose to the top’ in this analysis…just as SDak did…AND…Mercer. That’s the hmmm 樂 part?

Oh…btw, in compiling the data, FUBeAR did note that Mercer WAS, in fact, #11 in at least 2 categories. Cherry-Picking would have been, after seeing that, to revise the analysis to include, say, Top 16 Teams, justifying it by saying it’s the number of Seeds this year. THAT’S Cherry-Picking! Not what FUBeAR did.
I appreciate that. Top 10 was an arbitrary cutoff, but meaningful? This remains to be seen. I do agree that there appears to be at least a little more than coincidence to this observation.

[Reign of Terrier]

I love when these 3 get lumped together out of ignorance. The PL's playoff history/place in 1-AA/FCS is nothing like those two conferences. This is not a shot, the data supports a significant variance.

Sorry, no. When you regularly have your autobid get into the field with a losing record, you deserve to be lumped in here even if you had a very clear similarity to the NEC and Pioneer traditionally (having fewer athletic scholarships).

It may bug you, you but the FCS is basically 3 different tiers: Fully funded conferences with flagship state schools (MVFC/Big Sky), fully funded conferences with private schools and second or third tier state schools (Socon/Big South/CAA/Southland/OVC/some others) and those with less traditionally (Patriot/Pioneer/NEC). The NEC and patriot are both better than they used to be and a step above the pioneer, but they are clearly an easy out most of the time for most in tier 1 or tier 2

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Sorry, no. When you regularly have your autobid get into the field with a losing record, you deserve to be lumped in here even if you had a very clear similarity to the NEC and Pioneer traditionally (having fewer athletic scholarships).

It may bug you, you but the FCS is basically 3 different tiers: Fully funded conferences with flagship state schools (MVFC/Big Sky), fully funded conferences with private schools and second or third tier state schools (Socon/Big South/CAA/Southland/OVC/some others) and those with less traditionally (Patriot/Pioneer/NEC). The NEC and patriot are both better than they used to be and a step above the pioneer, but they are clearly an easy out most of the time for most in tier 1 or tier 2

Define regularly? The PL has had 27 autobids with 2 of those representatives having losing records. That's 7% of the time, or less than 1 out of every 10 autobid represetatives.....

The Patriot League is better than it used to be? How about when Holy Cross was a Top 5 regular and finished #1 in country? Produced a Heisman Finalist? Lafayette cracked the Top 5 and had their star quarterback Frank Baur on the cover of Sports Illustrated? Colgate had their FIRST Payton Winner....that was the Patriot League just in the 1980s.....

Reign, the data/evidence does not support your assertion in any way.....

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Patriot League in the Final Top 25

1986 #5 Holy Cross
1987#1 Holy Cross (Colgate finished 7-4, spent time ranked, Kenny Gamble wins the Payton Award)
1988 #19 Holy Cross (Lafayette finished 8-2-1 got as high as #5)
1989 T-#4 Holy Cross (Lafayette's Frank Baur is on the cover of Sports Illustrated)
1990 #8 Holy Cross
1991 #3 Holy Cross (Lehigh finished 9-2 with wins over UConn/W&M and got as high as #17)
1992 League was terrible
1993 League was terrible
1994 League was terrible
1995 League was terrible
1996 League was terrible
1997 #24 Bucknell (first year of playoffs)
1998 #7 Lehigh, #21 Colgate
1999 #14 Lehigh #18 Colgate
2000 #8 Lehigh
2001 #5 Lehigh
2002 #12 Fordham #25 Colgate
2003 #2 Colgate, #23 Lehigh (Colgate loses in National Title Game, Jamaal Branch wins the Payton Award)
2004 #15 Lehigh, #19 Lafayette
2005 #21 Lafayette, #23 Colgate
2006 NR
2007 #20 Fordham
2008 #16 Colgate
2009 #14 Holy Cross, #21 Colgate, #24 Lafayette
2010 #14 Lehigh
2011 #6 Lehigh
2012 #13 Lehigh, #24 Colgate
2013 #9 Fordham
2014 #11 Fordham
2015 #17 Colgate, #19 Fordham
2016 #21 Lehigh
2017 NR
2018 #8 Colgate
2019 NR
2020 Covid
2021 #19 Holy Cross
2022 #6 Holy Cross, #22 Fordham
2023 #21 Lafayette

[DFW HOYA]

One historically significant streak Lehigh can continue this year.
Be the ONLY CURRENT FCS program to reach the 1-AA/FCS playoffs in EVERY decade, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, 2020s......

As opposed to the only FCS schools (excepting the Ivy and SWAC), without any playoff appearance, having been in the subdivision since at least 1993:
Bucknell, Georgetown, Marist, and Valparaiso

[FUBeAR]

The Pioneer does send a team to the playoffs. Perhaps your analysis is suggesting (might suggest) this should be a more-than-one-bid league. That is why they should not be "removed". Ivies should also not be removed, because this provides a comparison point, especially for the few teams that may have played an Ivy and might be in playoff consideration.

My point here is that as a scientist, we deal with data sets and there are outliers that we maybe should (or should not) ignore. For example, and there is no political agenda here (so please don't turn it into one), the COVID vaccine has a measured rate of inflammatory heart disease of 2.3 in 100,000 people vaccinated (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8755376/). Just like COVID infection has a measured rate of heart inflammation approximately 7 times that of those vaccinated (https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/cardiovascular-medicine/articles/10.3389/fcvm.2022.951314/full). That said, that is ~15 in 100,000 people. My point: significance is in the eye of the beholder, and just because less than 0.002% show heart inflammation after vaccination, does not mean that it does not matter. Just like one could also say that 0.002% is much lower than the mortality rate for COVID, which some might also argue is low enough to matter or not matter. It is simply perspective and interpretation of data. Applying this to football, that is why considering only the top 7.75% of teams in any category is perhaps not the most rigorous way to consider the data.


Got a kick out of this! I think this might be able to be done via a Google Sheet (I do this with a few columns of data for other things, but would have to play around with 47 columns, or whatever you said were the number of stats).


Cherry-picking was perhaps not the best way to describe it; however, without including ALL data, it will always have a level of bias that including all data would not. If you add in "weighting", that would also introduce bias. Heck, then one might as well use SOS. ;)


The objective data has yet to determine this; however, since I do believe that strength of opponents (and thus schedule) differs interconference and can even have a moderate-to-great disparity intraconference, some teams might make higher appearances in statistical items, such that one might have at least a little WTF response. Is it possible that for NDSU, SDSU, MTST, USD, UCD, etc, that while consensus is that they are at the top, essentially averaging out all the statistical categories might not necessarily reflect that...and it might even favor those good teams in a perhaps not so good conference (but without SOS, there would be no such thing as a not so good conference, right?). At this point, it is speculative, nothing more.


I appreciate that. Top 10 was an arbitrary cutoff, but meaningful? This remains to be seen. I do agree that there appears to be at least a little more than coincidence to this observation.
Um…OK …

A few BRIEF comments…

* This thread is about Playoff Prognostication - we know the PFL is only getting an AutoBid and that Team won’t be seeded. No need to DISCUSS. The Ivies ain’t gonna participate; no need to DISCUSS. The data from PFL & Ivies IS included, but no DISCUSSION is needed about those Teams. As SNL’s Rev. Jackson would say - “The point is MOOT.”

* Now FUBeAR’s heart is hurting. Shouldn’t have gotten that 1 jab.

* FUBeAR is pretty good on Excel; not so much on Sheets for iPad … can’t figger out how to “Paste Special” to ‘convert’ formulas to JUST their values. Really need that. More below…

* Limiting analysis of data sets for manageability is a good thing, especially for OCD-afflicted types. More below…

* Weighting of the 47 stats the NCAA publishes would de-goofify them. One could use that to bias the output OR to add in the ‘bias’ of knowing something about Football. Only reason FUBeAR didn’t do it is cuz he didn’t feel like doing it. With 47 categories, the goofiness is diluted … so juice not worth squeezing, IFBO

* Top 10 significance? Not a David Letterman fan, huh? OK…the Committee released their Top 10 and there’s also the Casey Kasem paradigm.

So…since FUBeAR is OCD and your reply data-shamed him…so, he did it … all 47 categories / all 123 Teams - 141 copy /pastes, ~6,000 rows of data…meticulous assignment of points 123 to 1 … and since the NCAA’s site uses “-“ for ties instead of a value … that part sucked… Anyway, sure the outcome changed some, but, in the main, your suspicion was unfounded…

…Top Teams are still Top Teams…

NOW, LEAVE FUBeAR ALONE - BRAIN IS REALLY TIRED!!




ALL TEAMS / ALL 47 CATEGORIES





Top 10 Teams / ALL 47 CATEGORIES




Rank


Team


Points






Rank


Team


Points




1

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

4583






1

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

141




2

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

4507








2

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

138




3

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

4453








3

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

124




4

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

4390






4

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

121




5

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

4340






5

Dayton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dayton)

99




6

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

4334








6

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

97




7

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4239






7

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

96




8

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

4213






8

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

86




9

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

4093






9

Eastern Wash. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-wash)

79




10

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

4088






10

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

74




11

UC Davis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uc-davis)

3952






10

UIW (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uiw)

74




12

Jackson St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/jackson-st)

3889






12

Columbia (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/columbia)

71




13

UIW (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uiw)

3866






12

Tarleton St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tarleton-st)

71




14

Northern Ariz. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-ariz)

3765






14

UC Davis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uc-davis)

65




15

N.C. Central (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-central)

3727






15

Missouri St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/missouri-st)

55




16

North Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota)

3682






16

Youngstown St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/youngstown-st)

53




17

Missouri St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/missouri-st)

3664






17

Grambling (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/grambling)

50




18

South Carolina St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-carolina-st)

3635






17

Nicholls (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nicholls-st)

50




19

Tarleton St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tarleton-st)

3626






19

Northern Colo. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-colo)

47




20

Dartmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dartmouth)

3596






20

Idaho St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho-st)

46




21

UT Martin (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ut-martin)

3586






21

Lehigh (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lehigh)

43




22

Montana (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana)

3566






22

Alabama St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-st)

42




23

Alabama St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-st)

3547






22

Davidson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/davidson)

42




24

Stony Brook (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stony-brook)

3527






24

Abilene Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/abilene-christian)

41




25

Hampton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/hampton)

3514






25

Southeastern La. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeastern-la)

40




26

Yale (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/yale)

3505






26

Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

39




27

Lehigh (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lehigh)

3477






26

Jackson St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/jackson-st)

39




28

Southeastern La. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeastern-la)

3452






26

Tennessee Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-tech)

39




29

Dayton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dayton)

3451






29

Dartmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dartmouth)

38




30

Davidson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/davidson)

3438






29

Montana (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana)

38




31

Duquesne (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/duquesne)

3405






29

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

38




32

Southeast Mo. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeast-mo-st)

3392






32

N.C. Central (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-central)

37




33

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

3376






33

Penn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/penn)

36




34

New Hampshire (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/new-hampshire)

3370






33

South Carolina St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-carolina-st)

36




35

Morgan St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morgan-st)

3365






33

Stony Brook (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stony-brook)

36




36

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

3321






36

Idaho (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho)

35




37

San Diego (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/san-diego)

3319






37

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

34




38

Penn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/penn)

3314






38

Monmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/monmouth)

33




39

Lafayette (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lafayette)

3313






38

Villanova (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/villanova)

33




40

Columbia (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/columbia)

3288






40

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

32




41

Holy Cross (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/holy-cross)

3284






40

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

32




42

William & Mary (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/william-mary)

3274






40

Yale (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/yale)

32




43

Drake (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/drake)

3273






43

Duquesne (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/duquesne)

31




44

Tennessee St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-st)

3268






43

Northern Ariz. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-ariz)

31




45

Robert Morris (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/robert-morris)

3267






45

Morgan St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morgan-st)

30




46

Villanova (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/villanova)

3242






45

Robert Morris (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/robert-morris)

30




47

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

3238






45

Southern U. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-u)

30




48

Tennessee Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-tech)

3236






48

McNeese (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mcneese)

29




49

Abilene Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/abilene-christian)

3218






48

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

29




50

Georgetown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/georgetown)

3185






50

Merrimack (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/merrimack)

28




51

Illinois St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/illinois-st)

3176






50

Morehead St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morehead-st)

28




52

Idaho (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho)

3175






52

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

27




53

Monmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/monmouth)

3121






52

Georgetown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/georgetown)

27




54

Presbyterian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/presbyterian)

3118






52

San Diego (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/san-diego)

27




55

Central Ark. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-ark)

3115






55

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

26




56

Merrimack (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/merrimack)

3106






55

UT Martin (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ut-martin)

26




57

Alabama A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-am)

3050






57

Princeton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/princeton)

25




58

Eastern Wash. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-wash)

3045






57

Saint Francis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/st-francis-pa)

25




59

Maine (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/maine)

3033






57

Southern Utah (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-utah)

25




60

Grambling (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/grambling)

3019






60

Drake (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/drake)

24




61

Idaho St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho-st)

3003






60

Tennessee St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-st)

24




62

Nicholls (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nicholls-st)

2997






62

Cornell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cornell)

23




63

Weber St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st)

2971






62

Indiana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/indiana-st)

23




64

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

2962






62

Wagner (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wagner)

23




65

Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

2952






65

Northwestern St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northwestern-st)

20




66

Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

2918






65

Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

20




67

Gardner-Webb (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/gardner-webb)

2915






65

Southern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-ill)

20




68

Indiana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/indiana-st)

2915






68

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bethune-cookman)

19




69

Morehead St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morehead-st)

2910






68

Gardner-Webb (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/gardner-webb)

19




70

North Ala. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-ala)

2910






68

Valparaiso (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/valparaiso)

19




71

Elon (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/elon)

2869






71

North Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota)

18




72

Brown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/brown)

2863






72

Charleston So. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/charleston-so)

17




73

Southern Utah (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-utah)

2858






72

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

17




74

Sacramento St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacramento-st)

2824






72

Weber St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st)

17




75

LIU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/long-island)

2818






72

William & Mary (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/william-mary)

17




76

Cornell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cornell)

2793






76

Sacred Heart (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacred-heart)

16




77

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

2791






76

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

16




78

Eastern Ky. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ky)

2781






78

Prairie View (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/prairie-view)

15




79

Lamar University (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lamar)

2781






78

Presbyterian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/presbyterian)

15




80

Southern U. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-u)

2752






78

Southeast Mo. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeast-mo-st)

15




81

Howard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/howard)

2745






81

Alabama A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-am)

14




82

Florida A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/florida-am)

2729






81

Bucknell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bucknell)

14




83

Bucknell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bucknell)

2720






81

Norfolk St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/norfolk-st)

14




84

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

2700






84

UNI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uni)

13




85

Austin Peay (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/austin-peay)

2690






85

Alcorn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alcorn)

12




86

Wagner (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wagner)

2669






85

Eastern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill)

12




87

McNeese (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mcneese)

2653






85

Fordham (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/fordham)

12




88

Sacred Heart (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacred-heart)

2625






85

Lamar University (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lamar)

12




89

Towson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/towson)

2620






85

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

12




90

Alcorn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alcorn)

2587






90

Hampton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/hampton)

11




91

Norfolk St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/norfolk-st)

2560






90

Sacramento St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacramento-st)

11




92

Saint Francis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/st-francis-pa)

2554






92

Delaware St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware-st)

10




93

Texas Southern (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/texas-southern)

2549






92

Florida A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/florida-am)

10




94

Cal Poly (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cal-poly)

2524






92

Holy Cross (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/holy-cross)

10




95

Youngstown St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/youngstown-st)

2485






92

Howard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/howard)

10




96

Prairie View (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/prairie-view)

2481






92

Illinois St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/illinois-st)

10




97

Fordham (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/fordham)

2436






92

LIU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/long-island)

10




98

Western Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-ill)

2436






92

North Ala. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-ala)

10




99

Portland St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/portland-st)

2435






92

UAlbany (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/albany-ny)

10




100

UAlbany (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/albany-ny)

2397






92

Western Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-ill)

10




101

Valparaiso (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/valparaiso)

2362






101

Colgate (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/colgate)

9




102

Campbell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/campbell)

2316






102

New Hampshire (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/new-hampshire)

8




103

Southern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-ill)

2311






102

Towson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/towson)

8




104

Charleston So. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/charleston-so)

2277






104

Ark.-Pine Bluff (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ark-pine-bluff)

7




105

Colgate (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/colgate)

2244






104

Central Ark. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-ark)

7




106

Stetson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stetson)

2206






106

Elon (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/elon)

5




107

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

2186






106

Maine (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/maine)

5




108

Eastern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill)

2184






106

Marist (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/marist)

5




109

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

2184






106

Murray St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/murray-st)

5




110

Princeton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/princeton)

2097






106

Portland St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/portland-st)

5




111

UNI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uni)

2063






111

Cal Poly (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cal-poly)

4




112

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bethune-cookman)

2052






111

Lafayette (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lafayette)

4




113

Ark.-Pine Bluff (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ark-pine-bluff)

2048






111

Texas Southern (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/texas-southern)

4




114

Northern Colo. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-colo)

1948






114

Stetson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stetson)

2




115

Bryant (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bryant)

1915






115

Utah Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/utah-tech)

1




116

Murray St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/murray-st)

1912














117

Marist (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/marist)

1832














118

Delaware St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware-st)

1828














119

N.C. A&T (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-at)

1782














120

Utah Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/utah-tech)

1719














121

Houston Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/houston-baptist)

1627














122

Northwestern St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northwestern-st)

1536














123

Mississippi Val. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mississippi-val)

1322

[Reign of Terrier]

Just as a sidenote folks, I don’t take arguments seriously that appeal to things that happened before the Obama administration, and in a couple years even that will be too distant in the past. A lot of people treat conference playoff competition like an epic fantasy history or a computer model, but the reality is that each year is different, there’s not as many data points that are predictive, and what happened in 2010 or 2015 or 1996 is just not relevant.

[Nova09]

Um…OK …

A few BRIEF comments…

* This thread is about Playoff Prognostication - we know the PFL is only getting an AutoBid and that Team won’t be seeded. No need to DISCUSS. The Ivies ain’t gonna participate; no need to DISCUSS. The data from PFL & Ivies IS included, but no DISCUSSION is needed about those Teams. As SNL’s Rev. Jackson would say - “The point is MOOT.”

* Now FUBeAR’s heart is hurting. Shouldn’t have gotten that 1 jab.

* FUBeAR is pretty good on Excel; not so much on Sheets for iPad … can’t figger out how to “Paste Special” to ‘convert’ formulas to JUST their values. Really need that. More below…

* Limiting analysis of data sets for manageability is a good thing, especially for OCD-afflicted types. More below…

* Weighting of the 47 stats the NCAA publishes would de-goofify them. One could use that to bias the output OR to add in the ‘bias’ of knowing something about Football. Only reason FUBeAR didn’t do it is cuz he didn’t feel like doing it. With 47 categories, the goofiness is diluted … so juice not worth squeezing, IFBO

* Top 10 significance? Not a David Letterman fan, huh? OK…the Committee released their Top 10 and there’s also the Casey Kasem paradigm.

So…since FUBeAR is OCD and your reply data-shamed him…so, he did it … all 47 categories / all 123 Teams - 141 copy /pastes, ~6,000 rows of data…meticulous assignment of points 123 to 1 … and since the NCAA’s site uses “-“ for ties instead of a value … that part sucked… Anyway, sure the outcome changed some, but, in the main, your suspicion was unfounded…

…Top Teams are still Top Teams…

NOW, LEAVE FUBeAR ALONE - BRAIN IS REALLY TIRED!!




ALL TEAMS / ALL 47 CATEGORIES





Top 10 Teams / ALL 47 CATEGORIES




Rank


Team


Points






Rank


Team


Points




1

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

4583






1

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

141




2

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

4507








2

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

138




3

North Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota-st)

4453








3

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

124




4

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

4390






4

South Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota)

121




5

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

4340






5

Dayton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dayton)

99




6

Montana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana-st)

4334








6

South Dakota St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-dakota-st)

97




7

Mercer (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mercer)

4239






7

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

96




8

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

4213






8

Butler (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/butler)

86




9

Harvard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/harvard)

4093






9

Eastern Wash. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-wash)

79




10

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

4088






10

SFA (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stephen-f-austin)

74




11

UC Davis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uc-davis)

3952






10

UIW (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uiw)

74




12

Jackson St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/jackson-st)

3889






12

Columbia (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/columbia)

71




13

UIW (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uiw)

3866






12

Tarleton St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tarleton-st)

71




14

Northern Ariz. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-ariz)

3765






14

UC Davis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uc-davis)

65




15

N.C. Central (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-central)

3727






15

Missouri St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/missouri-st)

55




16

North Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota)

3682






16

Youngstown St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/youngstown-st)

53




17

Missouri St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/missouri-st)

3664






17

Grambling (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/grambling)

50




18

South Carolina St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-carolina-st)

3635






17

Nicholls (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nicholls-st)

50




19

Tarleton St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tarleton-st)

3626






19

Northern Colo. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-colo)

47




20

Dartmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dartmouth)

3596






20

Idaho St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho-st)

46




21

UT Martin (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ut-martin)

3586






21

Lehigh (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lehigh)

43




22

Montana (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana)

3566






22

Alabama St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-st)

42




23

Alabama St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-st)

3547






22

Davidson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/davidson)

42




24

Stony Brook (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stony-brook)

3527






24

Abilene Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/abilene-christian)

41




25

Hampton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/hampton)

3514






25

Southeastern La. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeastern-la)

40




26

Yale (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/yale)

3505






26

Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

39




27

Lehigh (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lehigh)

3477






26

Jackson St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/jackson-st)

39




28

Southeastern La. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeastern-la)

3452






26

Tennessee Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-tech)

39




29

Dayton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dayton)

3451






29

Dartmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/dartmouth)

38




30

Davidson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/davidson)

3438






29

Montana (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/montana)

38




31

Duquesne (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/duquesne)

3405






29

Richmond (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/richmond)

38




32

Southeast Mo. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeast-mo-st)

3392






32

N.C. Central (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-central)

37




33

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

3376






33

Penn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/penn)

36




34

New Hampshire (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/new-hampshire)

3370






33

South Carolina St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/south-carolina-st)

36




35

Morgan St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morgan-st)

3365






33

Stony Brook (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stony-brook)

36




36

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

3321






36

Idaho (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho)

35




37

San Diego (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/san-diego)

3319






37

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

34




38

Penn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/penn)

3314






38

Monmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/monmouth)

33




39

Lafayette (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lafayette)

3313






38

Villanova (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/villanova)

33




40

Columbia (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/columbia)

3288






40

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

32




41

Holy Cross (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/holy-cross)

3284






40

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

32




42

William & Mary (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/william-mary)

3274






40

Yale (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/yale)

32




43

Drake (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/drake)

3273






43

Duquesne (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/duquesne)

31




44

Tennessee St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-st)

3268






43

Northern Ariz. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-ariz)

31




45

Robert Morris (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/robert-morris)

3267






45

Morgan St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morgan-st)

30




46

Villanova (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/villanova)

3242






45

Robert Morris (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/robert-morris)

30




47

Chattanooga (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/chattanooga)

3238






45

Southern U. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-u)

30




48

Tennessee Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-tech)

3236






48

McNeese (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mcneese)

29




49

Abilene Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/abilene-christian)

3218






48

The Citadel (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/citadel)

29




50

Georgetown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/georgetown)

3185






50

Merrimack (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/merrimack)

28




51

Illinois St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/illinois-st)

3176






50

Morehead St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morehead-st)

28




52

Idaho (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho)

3175






52

Delaware (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware)

27




53

Monmouth (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/monmouth)

3121






52

Georgetown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/georgetown)

27




54

Presbyterian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/presbyterian)

3118






52

San Diego (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/san-diego)

27




55

Central Ark. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-ark)

3115






55

ETSU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/east-tenn-st)

26




56

Merrimack (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/merrimack)

3106






55

UT Martin (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ut-martin)

26




57

Alabama A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-am)

3050






57

Princeton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/princeton)

25




58

Eastern Wash. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-wash)

3045






57

Saint Francis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/st-francis-pa)

25




59

Maine (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/maine)

3033






57

Southern Utah (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-utah)

25




60

Grambling (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/grambling)

3019






60

Drake (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/drake)

24




61

Idaho St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/idaho-st)

3003






60

Tennessee St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/tennessee-st)

24




62

Nicholls (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nicholls-st)

2997






62

Cornell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cornell)

23




63

Weber St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st)

2971






62

Indiana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/indiana-st)

23




64

Samford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/samford)

2962






62

Wagner (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wagner)

23




65

Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

2952






65

Northwestern St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northwestern-st)

20




66

Central Conn. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-conn-st)

2918






65

Rhode Island (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/rhode-island)

20




67

Gardner-Webb (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/gardner-webb)

2915






65

Southern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-ill)

20




68

Indiana St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/indiana-st)

2915






68

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bethune-cookman)

19




69

Morehead St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/morehead-st)

2910






68

Gardner-Webb (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/gardner-webb)

19




70

North Ala. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-ala)

2910






68

Valparaiso (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/valparaiso)

19




71

Elon (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/elon)

2869






71

North Dakota (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-dakota)

18




72

Brown (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/brown)

2863






72

Charleston So. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/charleston-so)

17




73

Southern Utah (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-utah)

2858






72

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

17




74

Sacramento St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacramento-st)

2824






72

Weber St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/weber-st)

17




75

LIU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/long-island)

2818






72

William & Mary (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/william-mary)

17




76

Cornell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cornell)

2793






76

Sacred Heart (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacred-heart)

16




77

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

2791






76

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

16




78

Eastern Ky. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ky)

2781






78

Prairie View (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/prairie-view)

15




79

Lamar University (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lamar)

2781






78

Presbyterian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/presbyterian)

15




80

Southern U. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-u)

2752






78

Southeast Mo. St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southeast-mo-st)

15




81

Howard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/howard)

2745






81

Alabama A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alabama-am)

14




82

Florida A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/florida-am)

2729






81

Bucknell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bucknell)

14




83

Bucknell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bucknell)

2720






81

Norfolk St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/norfolk-st)

14




84

Western Caro. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-caro)

2700






84

UNI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uni)

13




85

Austin Peay (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/austin-peay)

2690






85

Alcorn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alcorn)

12




86

Wagner (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wagner)

2669






85

Eastern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill)

12




87

McNeese (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mcneese)

2653






85

Fordham (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/fordham)

12




88

Sacred Heart (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacred-heart)

2625






85

Lamar University (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lamar)

12




89

Towson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/towson)

2620






85

Wofford (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/wofford)

12




90

Alcorn (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/alcorn)

2587






90

Hampton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/hampton)

11




91

Norfolk St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/norfolk-st)

2560






90

Sacramento St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/sacramento-st)

11




92

Saint Francis (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/st-francis-pa)

2554






92

Delaware St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware-st)

10




93

Texas Southern (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/texas-southern)

2549






92

Florida A&M (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/florida-am)

10




94

Cal Poly (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cal-poly)

2524






92

Holy Cross (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/holy-cross)

10




95

Youngstown St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/youngstown-st)

2485






92

Howard (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/howard)

10




96

Prairie View (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/prairie-view)

2481






92

Illinois St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/illinois-st)

10




97

Fordham (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/fordham)

2436






92

LIU (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/long-island)

10




98

Western Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-ill)

2436






92

North Ala. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/north-ala)

10




99

Portland St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/portland-st)

2435






92

UAlbany (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/albany-ny)

10




100

UAlbany (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/albany-ny)

2397






92

Western Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/western-ill)

10




101

Valparaiso (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/valparaiso)

2362






101

Colgate (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/colgate)

9




102

Campbell (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/campbell)

2316






102

New Hampshire (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/new-hampshire)

8




103

Southern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/southern-ill)

2311






102

Towson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/towson)

8




104

Charleston So. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/charleston-so)

2277






104

Ark.-Pine Bluff (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ark-pine-bluff)

7




105

Colgate (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/colgate)

2244






104

Central Ark. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/central-ark)

7




106

Stetson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stetson)

2206






106

Elon (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/elon)

5




107

VMI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/vmi)

2186






106

Maine (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/maine)

5




108

Eastern Ill. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/eastern-ill)

2184






106

Marist (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/marist)

5




109

Furman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/furman)

2184






106

Murray St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/murray-st)

5




110

Princeton (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/princeton)

2097






106

Portland St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/portland-st)

5




111

UNI (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/uni)

2063






111

Cal Poly (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/cal-poly)

4




112

Bethune-Cookman (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bethune-cookman)

2052






111

Lafayette (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/lafayette)

4




113

Ark.-Pine Bluff (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/ark-pine-bluff)

2048






111

Texas Southern (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/texas-southern)

4




114

Northern Colo. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northern-colo)

1948






114

Stetson (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/stetson)

2




115

Bryant (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/bryant)

1915






115

Utah Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/utah-tech)

1




116

Murray St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/murray-st)

1912














117

Marist (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/marist)

1832














118

Delaware St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/delaware-st)

1828














119

N.C. A&T (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/nc-at)

1782














120

Utah Tech (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/utah-tech)

1719














121

Houston Christian (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/houston-baptist)

1627














122

Northwestern St. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/northwestern-st)

1536














123

Mississippi Val. (https://www.ncaa.com/schools/mississippi-val)

1322














No ANCOVA? *tsk tsk*
Me suspects collinearity issues

[SeattleCat]

Boy with all the Hot air in this thread, I expect the Socon to be the last 4 teams standing or someone is obviously fixing games.

[FUBeAR]

No ANCOVA? *tsk tsk*
Me suspects collinearity issues
Tried ANCOVA for the OCD, but the side effect of persistent priapism was causing too many issues. Looking for something homeopathic.

[Nova09]

Tried ANCOVA for the OCD, but the side effect of persistent priapism was causing too many issues. Looking for something homeopathic.

I love when impromptu wine & cheese club meetings pop up in threads where The Others don't expect us.

BTW, has any decision been rendered on Mercer's membership? Was Princeton's visit a vetting operative?

[caribbeanhen]

Boy with all the Hot air in this thread, I expect the Socon to be the last 4 teams standing or someone is obviously fixing games.

the hot air is the result of the Southern Conference not being able to let the games do the talkin

[FUBeAR]

I love when impromptu wine & cheese club meetings pop up in threads where The Others don't expect us.

BTW, has any decision been rendered on Mercer's membership? Was Princeton's visit a vetting operative?
In a way, but you have to broaden the aperture.

Think about the recent announcement about the Ancient Eight considering FCS Playoff participation. Both were precursors to the BIGGER news coming this spring.

Some are using the term acquisition. We prefer merger, but with the number of digits before the decimal said to be flowing into the coffers in SparkleCity, it’s hard to deny that the mucky-mucks in the Princeton Offices will be leading the combined entity.

[bobcathpdevil56]

Now just need to gather the same data from the last 25ish years, compile the results of the playoffs and run a regression to determine predictability power of the stats analysis. You got a minute to do that one FuBeAR?

[JacksFan40]

Boy with all the Hot air in this thread, I expect the Socon to be the last 4 teams standing or someone is obviously fixing games.
I remember the 2022 playoffs being an absolute domination by the SoCon, or so I was led to believe by some of the users before the playoffs started. Most of the talk ended after Samford went to Fargo in the quarterfinals, can’t remember how that game went though.

[uofmman1122]

Now just need to gather the same data from the last 25ish years, compile the results of the playoffs and run a regression to determine predictability power of the stats analysis. You got a minute to do that one FuBeAR?
Don't worry, I've got you covered.

Not gonna bore everyone with the minute details, but the results are interesting:

It sure seems like there are a lot of teams high up in these rankings that didn't do well in the playoffs. Weirdly, they seem to come from certain conferences.

Meanwhile, other teams that were high up from certain other conferences did perform well in the playoffs. Strange.

There must be something underlying this data, but honestly it's just too impossible to say what it could be without adding some kind of bias.

But something seems to be stabilizing these results from year to year. I dare say this Sense Of Stability is the missing ingredient to fully unlocking the picture!

We may never know, though. Hopefully brighter minds than mine can crack this code.

[Catbooster]

The initial FRS (FUBeAR Ranking System), using only the top 10 teams in each category, looking at how it ranks the Big Sky:

3. MSU
9. Eastern Washington
14. UC Davis
19. Northern Colorado
20. Idaho State
29. Montana
36. Idaho
43. Northern Arizona
72. Weber State
90. Sac State
106. Portland State
111. Cal Poly

Everyone knows EWU is much better than UC Davis this year. And Northern Colorado is much better than Montana and Idaho.

On second thought...maybe the PWO modified FRS is better?

6. MSU
11. UCD
14. NAU
22. UM
50. Idaho
58. EWU
61. ISU-o
63. WSU
74. Sac State
94. Cal-Poly
99. PSU
114. No Co

Much closer in the order of the teams, but not great. And Butler #1? SFA #4? South Dakota above NDSU and SDSU? etcetera, etc.

Thanks for taking the time to do this, but now that you've done it I'm just left with the opinion that these stats don't indicate anything. Maybe they would if an adjustment was made for strength of schedule.

I think most people are probably not surprised that they aren't a good predictor as it's much easier to rack up stats if you're playing against lesser offenses/defenses.