AGS Poll Results 2024 Week 10

[AGSPoll]

11/4/2024


Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
North Dakota State Bison
1058
26


2
Montana State Bobcats
1045
17


3
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
988



4
UC Davis Aggies
924



5
South Dakota Coyotes
913



6
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
812



7
Incarnate Word Cardinals
764



8
Idaho Vandals
728



9
Montana Grizzlies
724



10
Mercer Bears
710



11
Rhode Island Rams
648



12
Richmond Spiders
584



13
Villanova Wildcats
514



14
Missouri State Bears
421



15
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
416



16
Tarleton Texans
415



17
Abilene Christian Wildcats
398



18
Stony Brook Seawolves
304



19
Illinois State Redbirds
265



20
Central Arkansas Bears
231



21
Chattanooga Mocs
219



22
William & Mary Tribe
161



23
Western Carolina Catamounts
149



24
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
137



25T
Harvard Crimson
111



25T
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
111










ORV:




27
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
58



28
Duquesne Dukes
50



29
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
35



30
Tennessee State Tigers
21



31
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
16



32
Dartmouth Big Green
15



33
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
9



34
North Carolina Central Eagles
5



35
Southeastern Louisiana Lions
5



36
Jackson State Tigers
4



37
South Carolina State Bulldogs
4



38
New Hampshire Wildcats
3


































Most Significant Win:
Western Carolina Catamounts






Most Significant Loss:
Central Arkansas Bears

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

After a run of perhaps multiple years without issues I've managed to mess up 3 straight weeks...lol. I appreciate our staff's patience....xbowx

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Mercer Bears
8: Montana Grizzlies
9: Richmond Spiders
10: Idaho Vandals
11: Rhode Island Rams
12: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
13: Harvard Crimson
14: Missouri State Bears
15: Abilene Christian Wildcats
15: Tarleton Texans
16: Villanova Wildcats
18: Chattanooga Mocs
19: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
20: Stony Brook Seawolves
21: Illinois State Redbirds
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
24: Central Arkansas Bears
25. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

The Most Significant Win: Harvard Crimson
The Most Significant Loss: Central Arkansas Bears

[Chalupa Batman]

For your viewing pleasure:

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Mercer Bears
7: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
8: Incarnate Word Cardinals
9: Chattanooga Mocs
10: Idaho Vandals
11: Richmond Spiders
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Rhode Island Rams
14: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
15: Montana Grizzlies
16: Stony Brook Seawolves
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Missouri State Bears
19: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
20: Harvard Crimson
21: Villanova Wildcats
22: Dartmouth Big Green
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Southeastern Louisiana Lions
25: Illinois State Redbirds

The Most Significant Win: Western Carolina Catamounts
The Most Significant Loss: Central Arkansas Bears

[ursus arctos horribilis]

After a run of perhaps multiple years without issues I've managed to mess up 3 straight weeks...lol. I appreciate our staff's patience....xbowx

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Mercer Bears
8: Montana Grizzlies
9: Richmond Spiders
10: Idaho Vandals
11: Rhode Island Rams
12: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
13: Harvard Crimson
14: Missouri State Bears
15: Abilene Christian Wildcats
15: Tarleton Texans
16: Villanova Wildcats
18: Chattanooga Mocs
19: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
20: Stony Brook Seawolves
21: Illinois State Redbirds
22: Western Carolina Catamounts
23: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
24: Central Arkansas Bears
25. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

The Most Significant Win: Harvard Crimson
The Most Significant Loss: Central Arkansas Bears


You're welcome.

[Professor Chaos]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-6/

My biggest criticisms are Central Arkansas and UND. Look at Central Arkansas' wins... they're very underwhelming and now they have an awful loss to Utah Tech on top or it. I was surprised to see them comfortably in the consensus top 25 at #20 - that should've/could've been game against Arkansas State shouldn't still be propping them up IMO. UND has now lost two straight games to teams who don't have a single vote in this poll - they're not a top 25 team right now... time to rip that band-aid off.

[Professor Chaos]

And since I laid out my criticisms here's my ballot if anyone wants to critique it:

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Montana Grizzlies
11: Missouri State Bears
12: Mercer Bears
13: Richmond Spiders
14: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
15: Tarleton Texans
16: Abilene Christian Wildcats
17: Villanova Wildcats
18: Stony Brook Seawolves
19: Harvard Crimson
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: Western Carolina Catamounts
22: Chattanooga Mocs
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

[dbackjon]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-6/

My biggest criticisms are Central Arkansas and UND. Look at Central Arkansas' wins... they're very underwhelming and now they have an awful loss to Utah Tech on top or it. I was surprised to see them comfortably in the consensus top 25 at #20 - that should've/could've been game against Arkansas State shouldn't still be propping them up IMO. UND has now lost two straight games to teams who don't have a single vote in this poll - they're not a top 25 team right now... time to rip that band-aid off.

I completely missed seeing that score - a team NAU hammered beats the mighty Bears?

Central Arkansas - all your vote belong to the Jacks! ;)

[POD Knows]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-6/

My biggest criticisms are Central Arkansas and UND. Look at Central Arkansas' wins... they're very underwhelming and now they have an awful loss to Utah Tech on top or it. I was surprised to see them comfortably in the consensus top 25 at #20 - that should've/could've been game against Arkansas State shouldn't still be propping them up IMO. UND has now lost two straight games to teams who don't have a single vote in this poll - they're not a top 25 team right now... time to rip that band-aid off.Yea, UND should not be in the poll, they have one quality win and a couple bad losses.

[Chalupa Batman]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-6/

My biggest criticisms are Central Arkansas and UND. Look at Central Arkansas' wins... they're very underwhelming and now they have an awful loss to Utah Tech on top or it. I was surprised to see them comfortably in the consensus top 25 at #20 - that should've/could've been game against Arkansas State shouldn't still be propping them up IMO. UND has now lost two straight games to teams who don't have a single vote in this poll - they're not a top 25 team right now... time to rip that band-aid off.

Yeah UCA hasn't looked very good in their last 4 games. They got handled pretty easily by ACU, eked out wins over West Georgia & North Alabama, and just got blown out by previously winless Utah Tech. ShunDerrick Powell didn't play against the Trailblazers but that's still no excuse to not handle a team like that.

[Professor Chaos]

I think they're ranked pretty fairly but this season has a lot of could've/should've vibes from ETSU. They had NDSU beat - were up 2 scores late in the 4th but couldn't cover a muffed punt by NDSU and couldn't recover an onsides kick and lost that one. The box score makes it look like they outplayed Mercer but turned it over 4 times, giving up 2 defensive scores in the process, and gave up a punt block TD in a 6 point loss.

They were really close to having a really good season but just haven't been able to put things together at the right times.

[Puddin Tane]

If powell is hurt, you can stick a fork in uca. That kid is impressive

[MSUBobcat]

Unpopular take apparently, but I'm not seeing how UIW is a top-8 for running it up on bad teams. Their best win is over an NAU that will either be on the outside looking in or one of the last teams in, and then a 3pt road win over a decent, but not great SELA. They played SDSU respectably for 3 quarters, pulling within 7 to start the 4th, before running out of gas and ultimately losing by 21. They followed that up with another respectable, but still a losing, performance against an SIU that apparently was comprised of just one man, DJ Williams, since they have gone on to lose every game since, including ISU-b, and usually by huge deficits. Granted the Salukis schedule without Williams has been a challenging one, but they're losing by a minimum of 17 points, and a max of 35pts to Ill State. I get that Williams is a stud, but I'm starting to think that they probably only have 2 more wins if he was playing (SEMO, maybe, because it was at home and they lost by 17 and obviously the Sycamores). I don't think he makes up for 21 points vs NDSU, nor 21 @ Mo. State. Definitely not 29 @ USD or 35 vs Ill St.

TLDR; UIW has 1 win over a playoff contender, a big loss to a top 3 and a loss to a team that probably wasn't going to end up as good as we thought at the start of the year. Top 12 probably, especially with so many teams having blemishes, maybe even top 10. #7 just seems high to me. xtwocentsx

[Professor Chaos]

Unpopular take apparently, but I'm not seeing how UIW is a top-8 for running it up on bad teams. Their best win is over an NAU that will either be on the outside looking in or one of the last teams in, and then a 3pt road win over a decent, but not great SELA. They played SDSU respectably for 3 quarters, pulling within 7 to start the 4th, before running out of gas and ultimately losing by 21. They followed that up with another respectable, but still a losing, performance against an SIU that apparently was comprised of just one man, DJ Williams, since they have gone on to lose every game since, including ISU-b, and usually by huge deficits. Granted the Salukis schedule without Williams has been a challenging one, but they're losing by a minimum of 17 points, and a max of 35pts to Ill State. I get that Williams is a stud, but I'm starting to think that they probably only have 2 more wins if he was playing (SEMO, maybe, because it was at home and they lost by 17 and obviously the Sycamores). I don't think he makes up for 21 points vs NDSU, nor 21 @ Mo. State. Definitely not 29 @ USD or 35 vs Ill St.

TLDR; UIW has 1 win over a playoff contender, a big loss to a top 3 and a loss to a team that probably wasn't going to end up as good as we thought at the start of the year. Top 12 probably, especially with so many teams having blemishes, maybe even top 10. #7 just seems high to me. xtwocentsx
Both SEMO and UIW are getting sucked up into the vacuum of the top 10 without having to do much as teams above them falter. It was bound to happen considering how top heavy the poll was, and still is, with MVFC and Big Sky teams. They could end up as the #4 and #5 seeds by Selection Sunday.

EDIT: The point totals of the top 5 are interesting; if all 43 voters had the same top 5 those 5 teams would have a total of 4945 points - the current top 5 have a total of 4928 points so it's nearly a consensus that those are the top 5 as of now (there's some head-to-head matchups in there to come still with NDSU playing USD and Montana St playing UC Davis).

[POD Knows]

Unpopular take apparently, but I'm not seeing how UIW is a top-8 for running it up on bad teams. Their best win is over an NAU that will either be on the outside looking in or one of the last teams in, and then a 3pt road win over a decent, but not great SELA. They played SDSU respectably for 3 quarters, pulling within 7 to start the 4th, before running out of gas and ultimately losing by 21. They followed that up with another respectable, but still a losing, performance against an SIU that apparently was comprised of just one man, DJ Williams, since they have gone on to lose every game since, including ISU-b, and usually by huge deficits. Granted the Salukis schedule without Williams has been a challenging one, but they're losing by a minimum of 17 points, and a max of 35pts to Ill State. I get that Williams is a stud, but I'm starting to think that they probably only have 2 more wins if he was playing (SEMO, maybe, because it was at home and they lost by 17 and obviously the Sycamores). I don't think he makes up for 21 points vs NDSU, nor 21 @ Mo. State. Definitely not 29 @ USD or 35 vs Ill St.

TLDR; UIW has 1 win over a playoff contender, a big loss to a top 3 and a loss to a team that probably wasn't going to end up as good as we thought at the start of the year. Top 12 probably, especially with so many teams having blemishes, maybe even top 10. #7 just seems high to me. xtwocentsx
How many wins does MSU have over a playoff contender or a top 25 team, not being a smart ass just too lazy to look.

[ElCid]

How many wins does MSU have over a playoff contender or a top 25 team, not being a smart ass just too lazy to look.

Massey SOS
MSU - 40
UIW - 43

Hmm. Just a data point.

[caribbeanhen]

And since I laid out my criticisms here's my ballot if anyone wants to critique it:

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Incarnate Word Cardinals
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
9: Rhode Island Rams
10: Montana Grizzlies
11: Missouri State Bears
12: Mercer Bears
13: Richmond Spiders
14: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
15: Tarleton Texans
16: Abilene Christian Wildcats
17: Villanova Wildcats
18: Stony Brook Seawolves
19: Harvard Crimson
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: Western Carolina Catamounts
22: Chattanooga Mocs
23: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
24: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
25: Eastern Kentucky Colonels

if Dartmouth lost to #19 Harvard they probably should still be ranked https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/6b2e01c2-a879-4c08-a70f-1e1762404509

Also, my eyes tell me that if your 21-23 Southern Conference teams were to play higher ranked Villanova and Stony Brook, my money would be down south more times than not

[Preferred Walk-On]

Sux - Mercer, ETSU, WCU & Chatt will be better than 1/2 (or more than 1/2) of the Playoff field of 24.

Quoted FUBeAR from SoCon (Week 10) thread.

FUBeAR, I think I agree with you, although maybe not quite to the extent that you believe the SoCon teams should be ranked.


if Dartmouth lost to #19 Harvard they probably should still be ranked https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/6b2e01c2-a879-4c08-a70f-1e1762404509

Also, my eyes tell me that if your 21-23 Southern Conference teams were to play higher ranked Villanova and Stony Brook, my money would be down south more times than not

I agree here as well. According to my "eye-test", I believe the ranked SoCon teams would get the better of most (all?) of the ranked CAA teams more often than not. See below...

----------

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/3/2024 18:00:20

Your vote is listed below.

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
9: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Montana Grizzlies
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
15: Rhode Island Rams
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
19: Tarleton Texans
20: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
21: Missouri State Bears
22: Southern Utah Thunderbirds
23: Harvard Crimson
24: Dartmouth Big Green
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

The Most Significant Win: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
The Most Significant Loss: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

[caribbeanhen]

Quoted FUBeAR from SoCon (Week 10) thread.

FUBeAR, I think I agree with you, although maybe not quite to the extent that you believe the SoCon teams should be ranked.



I agree here as well. According to my "eye-test", I believe the ranked SoCon teams would get the better of most (all?) of the ranked CAA teams more often than not. See below...

----------

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/3/2024 18:00:20

Your vote is listed below.

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
9: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Montana Grizzlies
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
15: Rhode Island Rams
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
19: Tarleton Texans
20: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
21: Missouri State Bears
22: Southern Utah Thunderbirds
23: Harvard Crimson
24: Dartmouth Big Green
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

The Most Significant Win: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
The Most Significant Loss: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

Do you honestly think the Southern Conference trifecta wouldn't handle those over ranked OVC teams more times than not? I think we will see at least one OVC vs Southern Conference game in the playoffs ... hopefully

- - - Updated - - -


Quoted FUBeAR from SoCon (Week 10) thread.

FUBeAR, I think I agree with you, although maybe not quite to the extent that you believe the SoCon teams should be ranked.



I agree here as well. According to my "eye-test", I believe the ranked SoCon teams would get the better of most (all?) of the ranked CAA teams more often than not. See below...

----------

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/3/2024 18:00:20

Your vote is listed below.

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
9: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Montana Grizzlies
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
15: Rhode Island Rams
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
19: Tarleton Texans
20: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
21: Missouri State Bears
22: Southern Utah Thunderbirds
23: Harvard Crimson
24: Dartmouth Big Green
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

The Most Significant Win: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
The Most Significant Loss: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

Do you honestly think the Southern Conference trifecta wouldn't handle those over ranked OVC teams more times than not? I think we will see at least one OVC vs Southern Conference game in the playoffs ... hopefully

[Professor Chaos]

if Dartmouth lost to #19 Harvard they probably should still be ranked https://www.anygivensaturday.com/blob:https://www.anygivensaturday.com/6b2e01c2-a879-4c08-a70f-1e1762404509

Also, my eyes tell me that if your 21-23 Southern Conference teams were to play higher ranked Villanova and Stony Brook, my money would be down south more times than not
Probably right about those 5-4 SOCON teams. I'm still not really sold on Dartmouth... I've kind of been itching for an excuse to drop them with the underwhelming wins they've been stringing together.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Do you honestly think the Southern Conference trifecta wouldn't handle those over ranked OVC teams more times than not? I think we will see at least one OVC vs Southern Conference game in the playoffs ... hopefully

- - - Updated - - -



Do you honestly think the Southern Conference trifecta wouldn't handle those over ranked OVC teams more times than not? I think we will see at least one OVC vs Southern Conference game in the playoffs ... hopefully

Let’s have two of those games and see what happens.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MSUBobcat]

How many wins does MSU have over a playoff contender or a top 25 team, not being a smart ass just too lazy to look.

To date, MSU has just an FBS win and a thumping of AGS's current #8 (38-0 when the starters were pulled). Maine ended up being a better win than expected (they whooped Nova, currently #13, by 28) but not a contender. Our tough part of the schedule (@Davis, vs UM) is still coming which will lower Massey's SOS from 40th to 24th.


Massey SOS
MSU - 40
UIW - 43

Hmm. Just a data point.

Might as well add the other part of that equation. While UIW has played a similar SOS to MSU, the important factor is that MSU is 9-0 against the 40th toughest schedule while UIW is... 9-2 against a slightly easier schedule.

[TheKingpin28]

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: UC Davis Aggies
6: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
7: Incarnate Word Cardinals
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Montana Grizzlies
10: Mercer Bears
11: Rhode Island Rams
12: Richmond Spiders
13: Villanova Wildcats
14: Missouri State Bears
15: Abilene Christian Wildcats
16: Tarleton Texans
17: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
18: Central Arkansas Bears
19: Stony Brook Seawolves
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: William & Mary Tribe
22: Harvard Crimson
23: Western Carolina Catamounts
24: Chattanooga Mocs
25: East Tennessee State Buccaneers

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

To date, MSU has just an FBS win and a thumping of AGS's current #8 (38-0 when the starters were pulled). Maine ended up being a better win than expected (they whooped Nova, currently #13, by 28) but not a contender. Our tough part of the schedule (@Davis, vs UM) is still coming which will lower Massey's SOS from 40th to 24th.



Might as well add the other part of that equation. While UIW has played a similar SOS to MSU, the important factor is that MSU is 9-0 against the 40th toughest schedule while UIW is... 9-2 against a slightly easier schedule.

Absolutely true. But I was just answering a question of someone with some objective data. And the original point was that UIW isn't top 10 material. That IS a worthy and debatable question. But I would ask what other team has a better record with as high a SOS that isn't ahead of them in the poll. There might be, I haven't looked specifically, but I bet there isn't. I realize that a record and SOS don't tell the whole story, but it's just an objective starting point.

[MSUBobcat]

Both SEMO and UIW are getting sucked up into the vacuum of the top 10 without having to do much as teams above them falter. It was bound to happen considering how top heavy the poll was, and still is, with MVFC and Big Sky teams. They could end up as the #4 and #5 seeds by Selection Sunday.

EDIT: The point totals of the top 5 are interesting; if all 43 voters had the same top 5 those 5 teams would have a total of 4945 points - the current top 5 have a total of 4928 points so it's nearly a consensus that those are the top 5 as of now (there's some head-to-head matchups in there to come still with NDSU playing USD and Montana St playing UC Davis).

Yes, I agree with that. Montana screwing the pooch against UND in the 2nd half, and somehow losing to Weber in OT, obviously has to bring them down. Idaho has a better resume, IMO. I think Mercer beats UIW (unless they beat themselves). It'll all shake out. I'm just not as keen on that SIU loss as I was earlier on. QB is a key position, no doubt, but I'm starting to doubt that they would have been much better W-L wise if DJ was playing. Missouri State should be above UIW. Ill State probably is 8-1 against that schedule. I dunno. Just seemed like you're hard pressed to find any real good wins and the shine is wearing off the SIU loss being a "good loss".

Depending on how the game of MSU @ Davis works out, it could easily be treated similar to how NDSU-SDSU was, with no major shakeup. If MSU handles Sac St and Davis gets a solid road win in WA-Griz Stadium, and the following week MSU drops a 3 point road loss to Davis, I wouldn't expect to drop out of the top 4, especially presuming both win on the final weekend and NDSU handles USD in the 'Dome. In that case, I could see 11-1 NDSU as #1, then 11-1 Davis, 10-2 SDSU, and 11-1 MSU. (I'm just hoping we get the D back on track against Sac St and go get the win in Cali before thumping the Griz, rendering this all moot xnodx)

[MSUBobcat]

Absolutely true. But I was just answering a question of someone with some objective data. And the original point was that UIW isn't top 10 material. That IS a worthy and debatable question. But I would ask what other team has a better record with as high a SOS that isn't ahead of them in the poll. There might be, I haven't looked specifically, but I bet there isn't. I realize that a record and SOS don't tell the whole story, but it's just an objective starting point.

As I stated to PC, Missouri State for 1. 20th SOS, same 7-2 record. Ill State, 21st SOS but 6-3. Getting down to where the SOS gap probably doesn't allow for an extra loss, but TN Martin is 6-3 against the 30th. Montana is also 7-2 against the 33rd toughest schedule. How about this one: Tarleton, fresh off a loss to EKU for which they dropped to 16th (and some say wasn't punished enough) is also 7-2 against..... the 44th toughest schedule. 1 slot below UIW. Rhode Island is 2 spots back, but with a shiny 8-1 record.

So using that metric:
Missouri State, Montana - same record, better SOS
Rhode Island - very similar SOS (only 2 spots back), but 1 extra W

Qualitatively:
Ill State - much tougher SOS, but 1 more L
TN Martin - somewhat tougher SOS, but 1 more L (not advocating for TN Martin above UIW)

Basically equal - Tarleton (reminder: currently ranked 16th) nearly identical SOS (30.09 vs 30.04) and identical 7-2 record.

So that's 3, maybe 4 using SOS and record, that should be above them, bringing UIW to 11th and my initial point called for a top 12, maybe top 10.....

[POD Knows]

As I stated to PC, Missouri State for 1. 20th SOS, same 7-2 record. Ill State, 21st SOS but 6-3. Getting down to where the SOS gap probably doesn't allow for an extra loss, but TN Martin is 6-3 against the 30th. Montana is also 7-2 against the 33rd toughest schedule. How about this one: Tarleton, fresh off a loss to EKU for which they dropped to 16th (and some say wasn't punished enough) is also 7-2 against..... the 44th toughest schedule. 1 slot below UIW. Rhode Island is 2 spots back, but with a shiny 8-1 record.

So using that metric:
Missouri State, Montana - same record, better SOS
Rhode Island - very similar SOS (only 2 spots back), but 1 extra W

Qualitatively:
Ill State - much tougher SOS, but 1 more L
TN Martin - somewhat tougher SOS, but 1 more L (not advocating for TN Martin above UIW)

Basically equal - Tarleton (reminder: currently ranked 16th) nearly identical SOS (30.09 vs 30.04) and identical 7-2 record.

So that's 3, maybe 4 using SOS and record, that should be above them, bringing UIW to 11th and my initial point called for a top 12, maybe top 10.....
Missouri State is underrated on the AGS poll. I have them at 10 and the Griz at 9.

[KPSUL]

Quoted FUBeAR from SoCon (Week 10) thread.

FUBeAR, I think I agree with you, although maybe not quite to the extent that you believe the SoCon teams should be ranked.



I agree here as well. According to my "eye-test", I believe the ranked SoCon teams would get the better of most (all?) of the ranked CAA teams more often than not. See below...

----------

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/3/2024 18:00:20

Your vote is listed below.

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: UC Davis Aggies
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Mercer Bears
7: Idaho Vandals
8: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
9: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
10: Incarnate Word Cardinals
11: Montana Grizzlies
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
15: Rhode Island Rams
16: Richmond Spiders
17: Abilene Christian Wildcats
18: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
19: Tarleton Texans
20: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
21: Missouri State Bears
22: Southern Utah Thunderbirds
23: Harvard Crimson
24: Dartmouth Big Green
25: Stony Brook Seawolves

The Most Significant Win: Eastern Kentucky Colonels
The Most Significant Loss: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

Eye Tests are a form of B.S., and that's not Bachelor of Science.

[MSUBobcat]

Missouri State is underrated on the AGS poll. I have them at 10 and the Griz at 9.

The only thing I can think of is everyone thought they were going to be a continuation of last year's 4-7 squad. Everyone ragged on the Griz Week 1 for barely handling them; now its their best win, and a damn good one. A 5 point loss to the current #9 in WA-Griz is a damn respectable loss. Ball State is no juggernaut, but they are still FBS and somehow beat the NIU that somehow beat Notre Dame, so playing them to a 1 score game is a pretty good loss in my book also. 2 wins over ranked playoff contenders and a drubbing of the team that's a "quality loss" for UIW. I can't figure it out.

I don't recall, is Missouri State playoff eligible this year? I kinda thought not, but we're ranking them so I'm not sure.

[POD Knows]

The only thing I can think of is everyone thought they were going to be a continuation of last year's 4-7 squad. Everyone ragged on the Griz Week 1 for barely handling them; now its their best win, and a damn good one. A 5 point loss to the current #9 in WA-Griz is a damn respectable loss. Ball State is no juggernaut, but they are still FBS and somehow beat the NIU that somehow beat Notre Dame, so playing them to a 1 score game is a pretty good loss in my book also. 2 wins over ranked playoff contenders and a drubbing of the team that's a "quality loss" for UIW. I can't figure it out.

I don't recall, is Missouri State playoff eligible this year? I kinda thought not, but we're ranking them so I'm not sure.
They aren’t playoff eligible and I kind of blew them off for the first half of the year until they started to win a few games and I also forgot that we had decided to include them in the poll.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The only thing I can think of is everyone thought they were going to be a continuation of last year's 4-7 squad. Everyone ragged on the Griz Week 1 for barely handling them; now its their best win, and a damn good one. A 5 point loss to the current #9 in WA-Griz is a damn respectable loss. Ball State is no juggernaut, but they are still FBS and somehow beat the NIU that somehow beat Notre Dame, so playing them to a 1 score game is a pretty good loss in my book also. 2 wins over ranked playoff contenders and a drubbing of the team that's a "quality loss" for UIW. I can't figure it out.

I don't recall, is Missouri State playoff eligible this year? I kinda thought not, but we're ranking them so I'm not sure.

They are not playoff eligible, but at the beginning of the year the MVFC said they might be eligible for the MVFC title or it was TBD. So if they are not eligible for their own conference or the playoffs they would be out.

The lack of decision making for the MVFC on that issue sucks but they just wanted to make it because they were probably pretty sure SDSU or NDSU would win it either way.

So I was left in a spot of making my own decision...and left them in. I don't feel confident in that one and have not all year but I guess it is the way it goes.

They are a good team either way and they could sure cause some trouble for playoff teams down the stretch though.

[caribbeanhen]

They are not playoff eligible, but at the beginning of the year the MVFC said they might be eligible for the MVFC title or it was TBD. So if they are not eligible for their own conference or the playoffs they would be out.

The lack of decision making for the MVFC on that issue sucks but they just wanted to make it because they were probably pretty sure SDSU or NDSU would win it either way.

So I was left in a spot of making my own decision...and left them in. I don't feel confident in that one and have not all year but I guess it is the way it goes.

They are a good team either way and they could sure cause some trouble for playoff teams down the stretch though.

Missouri State and Delaware will be in top half of CUSA next year

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Missouri State and Delaware will be in top half of CUSA next year

I would bet on it.

[smilo]

1. I'll mostly take the 5-4 SoCon teams over the 7-2 CAA teams. WCU losing to Campbell and UR losing to Wofford is a wash. But the WCU loss to Montana and ETSU loss to NDSU are two of the defining games for me. Villanova and Stony Brook would have lost uglier if they played that schedule. Arguably UR too, but they are hot enough to justify now.

2. Northern Arizona is a playoff team and should be comfortably in the poll. I love UCA and like SFA and considered them for the last spot, but they are not there.

3. Just a few weeks ago I said I won't rank an Ivy this year. After UND and UCA collapse, I have little choice but to include Harvard over both. I considered SFA for #25, but I honestly think SELA is better. Beating UNH and Dartmouth who would also be under consideration for that spot forces my hand.

1: North Dakota State Bison
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: Mercer Bears
6: UC Davis Aggies
7: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
8: Idaho Vandals
9: Incarnate Word Cardinals
10: Montana Grizzlies
11: Missouri State Bears
12: Rhode Island Rams
13: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
14: Richmond Spiders
15: Western Carolina Catamounts
16: Chattanooga Mocs
17: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
18: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
19: Villanova Wildcats
20: Stony Brook Seawolves
21: Tarleton Texans
22: Illinois State Redbirds
23: Abilene Christian Wildcats
24: William & Mary Tribe
25: Harvard Crimson

[ElCid]

As I stated to PC, Missouri State for 1. 20th SOS, same 7-2 record. Ill State, 21st SOS but 6-3. Getting down to where the SOS gap probably doesn't allow for an extra loss, but TN Martin is 6-3 against the 30th. Montana is also 7-2 against the 33rd toughest schedule. How about this one: Tarleton, fresh off a loss to EKU for which they dropped to 16th (and some say wasn't punished enough) is also 7-2 against..... the 44th toughest schedule. 1 slot below UIW. Rhode Island is 2 spots back, but with a shiny 8-1 record.

So using that metric:
Missouri State, Montana - same record, better SOS
Rhode Island - very similar SOS (only 2 spots back), but 1 extra W

Qualitatively:
Ill State - much tougher SOS, but 1 more L
TN Martin - somewhat tougher SOS, but 1 more L (not advocating for TN Martin above UIW)

Basically equal - Tarleton (reminder: currently ranked 16th) nearly identical SOS (30.09 vs 30.04) and identical 7-2 record.

So that's 3, maybe 4 using SOS and record, that should be above them, bringing UIW to 11th and my initial point called for a top 12, maybe top 10.....

Good examples, but there are qualifiers on some of those. And as I said, it's a starting point.

In many people's mind, Missouri St shouldn't be in poll. Most aren't even voting for them at all.

Montana has two warts on them. Small warts, but they are growing. UIW has one growing wart.

Tarleton probably got penalized a bit harshly, but this is probably the best example for everything else being equal.

Tenn-Martin and Ill St are good as well in that they have more losses, but each have 1 FBS loss. But no warts.

RI has the one FBS loss, but looking at their performance, they have squeaked by a couple of real bad teams. Very underwhelming. UIW has one, one score win against a descent SELA. Again, about same SOS.

I'm just playing devils advocate. I have no real affinity for them. I can be convinced they are a tad bit high. But it isn't as egregious as claimed.

Now for my opinion. I think UIW would beat the teams mentioned, at home. On the road, maybe, maybe not. They handled N Arizona as good as Montana did. They beat SELA by the same as Tarleton did. Just random thoughts.

[dbackjon]

Good examples, but there are qualifiers on some of those. And as I said, it's a starting point.

In many people's mind, Missouri St shouldn't be in poll. Most aren't even voting for them at all.

Montana has two warts on them. Small warts, but they are growing. UIW has one growing wart.

Tarleton probably got penalized a bit harshly, but this is probably the best example for everything else being equal.

Tenn-Martin and Ill St are good as well in that they have more losses, but each have 1 FBS loss. But no warts.

RI has the one FBS loss, but looking at their performance, they have squeaked by a couple of real bad teams. Very underwhelming. UIW has one, one score win against a descent SELA. Again, about same SOS.

I'm just playing devils advocate. I have no real affinity for them. I can be convinced they are a tad bit high. But it isn't as egregious as claimed.

Now for my opinion. I think UIW would beat the teams mentioned, at home. On the road, maybe, maybe not. They handled N Arizona as good as Montana did. They beat SELA by the same as Tarleton did. Just random thoughts.

UIW handled NAU far better than Montana did. NAU was in it for a half against UIW, then UIW dominated the second half, beating NAU by 24. NAU went into the 4th quarter leading Montana, losing by 11

[ngineer]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-6/

My biggest criticisms are Central Arkansas and UND. Look at Central Arkansas' wins... they're very underwhelming and now they have an awful loss to Utah Tech on top or it. I was surprised to see them comfortably in the consensus top 25 at #20 - that should've/could've been game against Arkansas State shouldn't still be propping them up IMO. UND has now lost two straight games to teams who don't have a single vote in this poll - they're not a top 25 team right now... time to rip that band-aid off.

Agreed, I dropped them out of my top 25 til they prove otherwise.

[MSUBobcat]

They are not playoff eligible, but at the beginning of the year the MVFC said they might be eligible for the MVFC title or it was TBD. So if they are not eligible for their own conference or the playoffs they would be out.

The lack of decision making for the MVFC on that issue sucks but they just wanted to make it because they were probably pretty sure SDSU or NDSU would win it either way.

So I was left in a spot of making my own decision...and left them in. I don't feel confident in that one and have not all year but I guess it is the way it goes.

They are a good team either way and they could sure cause some trouble for playoff teams down the stretch though.

No issue with the decision. It just made me unsure of myself on the legibility.

[MSUBobcat]

Good examples, but there are qualifiers on some of those. And as I said, it's a starting point.

In many people's mind, Missouri St shouldn't be in poll. Most aren't even voting for them at all.

Montana has two warts on them. Small warts, but they are growing. UIW has one growing wart.

Tarleton probably got penalized a bit harshly, but this is probably the best example for everything else being equal.

Tenn-Martin and Ill St are good as well in that they have more losses, but each have 1 FBS loss. But no warts.

RI has the one FBS loss, but looking at their performance, they have squeaked by a couple of real bad teams. Very underwhelming. UIW has one, one score win against a descent SELA. Again, about same SOS.

I'm just playing devils advocate. I have no real affinity for them. I can be convinced they are a tad bit high. But it isn't as egregious as claimed.

Now for my opinion. I think UIW would beat the teams mentioned, at home. On the road, maybe, maybe not. They handled N Arizona as good as Montana did. They beat SELA by the same as Tarleton did. Just random thoughts.

Technically, you said "I would ask what other team has a better record with as high a SOS that isn't ahead of them in the poll. There might be, I haven't looked specifically, but I bet there isn't." So I looked. And there was.

I'm also playing devil's advocate, as the minority, based on poll results. I didn't say their positioning was egregious (kudos; as a Cubs' fan that adjective takes special meaning; gotta listen to their broadcasts), just that I think it's 3 to 5 positions too high. If the season ended today, I don't think the resume warrants a top-8, first round bye. Just bringing it up for conversation.

Edit: after confirmation that Mo State is not eligible, that renders their potential ranking irrelevant in regard to the top-8, first round bye conversation (but not in regard to the AGS poll).

[caribbeanhen]

Eye Tests are a form of B.S., and that's not Bachelor of Science.

it really depends on who's doing the lookin

[Preferred Walk-On]

Eye Tests are a form of B.S., and that's not Bachelor of Science.

So you’re saying we shouldn’t watch games any more. Perhaps we should just listen to them then.


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[Preferred Walk-On]

Missouri State is underrated on the AGS poll. I have them at 10 and the Griz at 9.

That Missouri State @ Northern Iowa game threw me, as a top 10 team has no business making that a game. Also, the Bears have not played NDSU, SDSU, or USD yet (and they will avoid USD altogether). They are a top 20, but 10 might be generous, and they are definitely not underrated.


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[ElCid]

Technically, you said "I would ask what other team has a better record with as high a SOS that isn't ahead of them in the poll. There might be, I haven't looked specifically, but I bet there isn't." So I looked. And there was.

I'm also playing devil's advocate, as the minority, based on poll results. I didn't say their positioning was egregious (kudos; as a Cubs' fan that adjective takes special meaning; gotta listen to their broadcasts), just that I think it's 3 to 5 positions too high. If the season ended today, I don't think the resume warrants a top-8, first round bye. Just bringing it up for conversation.

Edit: after confirmation that Mo State is not eligible, that renders their potential ranking irrelevant in regard to the top-8, first round bye conversation (but not in regard to the AGS poll).

I do have them in the top 8, but I may have to reevaluate after this week. If looking at current resume and wins, discounting overall SOS, Mercer is probably more deserving with wins over WCU, ETSU, and UTC. Their SOS isn't great due to the early OOC games, but will drop once they get their FBS game like others already have. I always try to look at whether a team has had their FBS game yet since it skews the SOS. The Samford loss is a wart, but not horrendous.

Still a lot of season left. I sm not convinced one of the top teams won't falter throwing a wrench into it. MSU, Idaho, USD, Montana have a few tough games left.

If RI were to somehow win out, I think they are a lock for top 8.

[mvemjsunpx]

Previous week in parentheses…


1. Montana St. (1)
2. North Dakota St. (2)
3. South Dakota St. (3)
4. UC Davis (4)
5. South Dakota (5)
6. Southeast Missouri St. (6)
7. Incarnate Word (7)
8. Idaho (9)
9. Rhode Island (11)
10. Mercer (12)
11. Abilene Christian (13)
12. Montana (16)
13. Missouri St. (17)
14. Tennessee-Martin (18)
15. Duquesne (15)
16. Richmond (20)
17. Villanova (21)
18. Stony Brook (22)
19. Tarleton St. (10)
20. Eastern Kentucky (NR)
21. Southern Utah (25)
22. Western Carolina (NR)
23. Tennessee-Chattanooga (8)
24. East Tennessee St. (19)
25. Harvard (NR)

Dropped - Central Arkansas (14), North Dakota (24)


W - Eastern Kentucky
L - Central Arkansas

[FUBeAR]

Mercer is probably more deserving with wins over WCU, ETSU, and UTC. Their SOS isn't great due to the early OOC games, but will drop once they get their FBS game like others already have. I always try to look at whether a team has had their FBS game yet since it skews the SOS. The Samford loss is a wart, but not horrendous.
The Mercer loss to Samford is DEFINITELY a wart. And, if Mercer does what they did against Samford playing @ VMI, vs. Furman, or in a Playoff game vs. even a PFL Team, they are quite likely to lose any of those games. Almost any Team would.

So, that said, some context around the ‘wart’ is fair to provide/know in case anyone cares to look deeper than records/scores…as has been the context of most posts in this thread.

At Samford, via a badly shanked Punt, a tipped-in-the-air-INT, and a Strip-Sack given up by a now-backup OT, Mercer was down 21-0 within 4 minutes of Kickoff, on 3 Samford scoring ‘drives’ that averaged less than 24 yards each. Samford earned every one of those TD’s. The shanked punt was Mercer’s only “unforced error” during that disastrous start. Now, overcoming the re-injury loss of their highly-ranked (at the time) Starting QB (on another, later Strip-Sack that was returned for a TD), who was replaced by a True Freshman (who, expectedly, as a True FR pressing in a comeback attempt will, threw a Pick6), Mercer outscored Samford 35-34 in the remaining 56 minutes of the game.

Since acquiring that ugly “wart” on their record, Mercer, in 2 games facing ranked Teams, has also started slowly, falling behind (by as much as 17) in the 1st half of both contests, but, also in both contests, the Bears fought their way back into the game or to leading before halftime and won both.

So, maybe, acquiring the “wart” at Samford provided Mercer with a lesson about playing from behind / mounting a comeback that would be, potentially, highly valuable in a Playoff run. Or, maybe we are learning that Mercer has a fatal flaw of being a slow-starting Team that would / will be a “death sentence” in a Playoff game, or even in their final 2 FCS / SoCon games.

Time will (or may) tell, but Mercer’s loss to Samford did have, IFBO, important context worth considering, and, as Coach P. Harvey always said … “Now you know … … … … the REST of the story.”

[MSUBobcat]

I do have them in the top 8, but I may have to reevaluate after this week. If looking at current resume and wins, discounting overall SOS, Mercer is probably more deserving with wins over WCU, ETSU, and UTC. Their SOS isn't great due to the early OOC games, but will drop once they get their FBS game like others already have. I always try to look at whether a team has had their FBS game yet since it skews the SOS. The Samford loss is a wart, but not horrendous.

Still a lot of season left. I sm not convinced one of the top teams won't falter throwing a wrench into it. MSU, Idaho, USD, Montana have a few tough games left.

If RI were to somehow win out, I think they are a lock for top 8.

I already included Mercer as a team that probably should be ahead of UIW in post #24 ("I think Mercer beats UIW (unless they beat themselves).") I didn't state that I would have Mercer over UIW, but I think saying they win H2H implies which team I would rank over the other.

Idaho is fairly heavily favored by Massey in their remaining games. MSU does have 2 tough games, but losing just 1 would likely keep them ahead of UIW (11-1 against a projected 24th hardest schedule vs 10-2 against a schedule whose difficulty is diminishing over the next 3 weeks to #53). USD very possibly takes an L vs #1 NDSU and theoretically finishes 8-3 due to the "Whooping Cough Game", but I'd probably keep them above the Word unless they get destroyed. They lack a real quality win, but the 3 losses would be a 14 pt loss to B1G's Wisco, a road OT loss to the current FCS #3 (who beat UIW by 21) and a loss to the FCS #1. Montana.... that is a possibility for faltering. They can finish anywhere from #3 to out of the playoffs, IMO, which is a weird thing to say about the #9 team with 3 weeks left. It is unlikely, but if they lose out (heavily favored vs PSU), they would be 7-5, best wins are 5 pt home win over a solid Missouri State and 11 points over bubbly NAU and coming in on a 3 game skid. I think the very same NAU, at 7-4, no marquee wins, but no warts and on a 5 game winning streak may bump them.

If Rhody goes 11-1 against the 47th SOS, I would hope they bump 3 teams ahead of them for a top 8. They'd only have quality wins over Delaware and UNH (possibly HC, if they're a playoff participant), but their only loss would be to a 6-3 B1G Minnesota (though it was a ass whooping). UIW for sure, likely the Griz (don't see them winning out and losing 2 of 3 is a real possibility) and probably Mercer, who would be 10-2 against the #58 SOS. Maybe even Idaho, with 3 wins (2 FCS), but that may depend on how the Davis-MSU-UM round robin goes. If UM takes the L to both and the Davis-MSU game is a nail biter, the winner is likely a top 2 and the loser could stay top 5, meaning the Vandals would have a 10 pt loss to #1 Oregon, a 2 pt road loss to Davis (#2 or #4, hypothetically) and an absolute shellacking in Bozeman (the other of #2 or #4) with wins over FBS Wyo and playoff participants (or at least contenders) ACU and NAU.

[MSUBobcat]

That Missouri State @ Northern Iowa game threw me, as a top 10 team has no business making that a game. Also, the Bears have not played NDSU, SDSU, or USD yet (and they will avoid USD altogether). They are a top 20, but 10 might be generous, and they are definitely not underrated.


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So teams are not allowed to keep an inferior opponent around longer than expected once in a while, even if they still win? Does the #1 team have any business being down by 12 when taking possession with 2:49 remaining and needing an onside kick recovery to beat the #24 team? Just wondering how much leeway a team gets to play down and still get the win before it's deemed as a knock against them.

[Preferred Walk-On]

So teams are not allowed to keep an inferior opponent around longer than expected once in a while, even if they still win? Does the #1 team have any business being down by 12 when taking possession with 2:49 remaining and needing an onside kick recovery to beat the #24 team? Just wondering how much leeway a team gets to play down and still get the win before it's deemed as a knock against them.

Well, clearly you did not look at my ballot (hint: see #1…it is not NDSU). So do so, then try again.

BTW, ETSU appears to be a decent SoCon, but UNI is a bottom MVFC, at least this year. A top 10 does not give up 42 to UNI, and they certainly win by more than one score. Top 20, more likely. #14 is not underrated. Also, take a look at UNI’s season results and please consider reconsidering. ;)

Go ahead and hang on to this post, then go ahead and reference it after Missouri State plays NDSU and SDSU. Maybe it will be in your favor, maybe it won’t. We’ll see. Too bad Missouri State missed the other two Dakotas.


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