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JALMOND
November 3rd, 2024, 11:49 PM
"And down the stretch they come!!!" November is here and the conference has five clear frontrunners who are distancing themselves from the rest. While no one looks capable of stopping Montana State, the other four should be in line for a playoff berth. But some good matchups still on tap for the last three weeks so all five will definitely have earned it. Here are this week's power rankings (last week in parenthesis). All are my opinion only. Let November begin.

1. Montana State (1)---Last week won at Eastern Washington 42-28, this week Sacramento State at home---The Bobcats continue to push through their schedule, with last week getting a crucial road win. They come home this week, bringing in a desperate squad from the bottom of the standings. Their dominance should continue.

2. UC Davis (2)---Last week beat Northern Colorado at home 59-7, this week at Montana---The Aggies put their game away early last week with a convincing home win against a lower class opponent. They step up to the upper levels this weekend with a tough road game on the horizon. This may be a good statement game.

3. Idaho (3)---Last week bye, this week at Portland State---The Vandals earned their bye week after trudging through their schedule with various injuries. A good time to get healthy, they now go on the road to face off against their paper rivals. Road games in November are never easy and the Vandals can't afford to slip.

4. Montana (4)---Last week won at Cal Poly 42-7, this week UC Davis at home---The good news is the Grizzlies found their defense during the bye week, and have only allowed one touchdown in the last two games. However, the level of difficulty goes up this weekend, but they stay at home to face a top tier team. They are ready, though.

5. Northern Arizona (5)---Last week beat Weber State at home 27-6, this week at Cal Poly---The Lumberjacks are truly the surprise team in the conference and have clearly put themselves in position for a playoff berth and to be mentioned as a top tier team in the conference. A road game against a lower team better not sidetrack them.

6. Portland State (10)---Last week won at Sacramento State 58-38, this week Idaho at home---The Vikings probably scheduled themselves out of a playoff spot this year, but they felt confident about getting some surprises along the way. They got one on the road last week. They have another shot at one this week, but it will be tough.

7. Idaho State (8)---Last week bye, this week at Weber State---The Bengals took last week off after a strong overtime home win over a tough opponent with playoff aspirations, and went in to the bye week feeling good about themselves. They get one of the two teams sinking to the depths of the conference at home this week.

8. Weber State (7)---Last week lost at Northern Arizona 27-6, this week Idaho State at home---The Wildcats came out lifeless after their bye last week and were out of the game before you could blink, and while their defense tried to keep them in the game, the offense could not get started. Playing for pride starts this week.

9. Eastern Washington (9)---Last week lost to Montana State at home 42-28, this week at Northern Colorado---The Eagles found out what most of the conference knows already. Fall behind to the top dog, then try to scramble to get back in it. It didn't work and they were the next victim. They should get a win this week.

10. Sacramento State (6)---Last week lost to Portland State at home 58-38, this week at Montana State---After while, you have to call it like it is. The Hornets played everyone close and just came up short until this game. But they haven't really played anyone. Two of the next three are against the top teams in the conference.

11. Cal Poly (11)---Last week lost to Montana at home 42-7, this week Northern Arizona at home---The Mustangs have had some good games and just a few not so good games. This game was a not so good game as they ran into a buzzsaw against a team trying to make a statement. Another tough game awaits them.

12. Northern Colorado (12)---Last week lost to UC Davis 59-7, this week Eastern Washington at home---The Bears have looked good on occasion as well, but last week against a top team was not a good game in any means. The level may drop a bit this weekend, but it will still be tough to get a win, even with the game at home.

RECAP: 1, then 2, then 3-5, big gap, then 6-10, with 11-12 bringing up the rear.

MSUBobcat
November 4th, 2024, 12:03 PM
1. Montana State (1) - As EWU is wont to do, their offense gave MSU's D a strong test. The Bobcat offense continued to roll and pulled away in the 4th.
2. UC Davis (2) - After having a tendency to play to their opponents' level a bit earlier this year, Davis put their foot on the throat of NoCo.
3. Idaho (3) - The Idaho schools took the week off. No adjustment deemed necessary.
4. Montana (4) - The Griz beat the brakes off of Poly, as they should, but their loss to UND is now looking like a 2nd bad loss (Weber also), so they stay behind Idaho, who has no bad losses and 2 or 3 solid wins (Wyo, ACU and NAU).
5. NAU (5) - The Jacks ran out to an early lead and never let the Grills back in, keeping their playoff aspirations alive. Unfortunately, what was looking like a good win is starting to become tarnished with Sac State failing in their PAC-12 application process.
6. Idaho State (6) - The Bengals had the weekend off, which prevented them from losing, like the teams below them. That keeps them in the 6 spot, with a challenging trip to Ogden upcoming.
7. Weber State (8) - Took an L at a hard place for opposing teams. Stay ahead of the Vikes because of the H2H and I think they probably beat my #6 this weekend, but it's getting hard to figure out who WSU is this year, with a home loss to UNC and an OT loss to what is apparently a bad Sac St. team.
8. PSU (10) - Knocked off a reeling Sac St team for its 2nd win against its brutal schedule. They'd like to laissez les bons temps rouler, but the welcome a Vandals team coming off a bye and needing wins to ensure a playoff berth and a top 16 seed and the home game that comes with it.
9. EWU (9) - The EWU offense continues to be in top gear. Unfortunately, they don't have a defense to let them win shootouts.
10. Sac State (7) - What was expected to be a promising season has gone completely off the rails. Was the talk of moving up too much of a distraction for them? Either way... they have not made themselves look very appealing for a call-up.
11. Cal Poly (11) - Took one on the chin from one of the conference heavyweights. Technically, NoCo has the better win, stunning Weebs in Ogden, but Poly has the H2H
12. UNC (12) - Got dump trucked on their trip to Cali. That keeps them in the cellar.

1-2 fighting for the conference auto and a top 8 seed and the first round bye that comes with it. 2 weekends from now is going to be a battle.
3-4 very good chance to make the playoffs, but chinks in the armor have me questioning a deep run.
5 will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, due to that Lincoln game and no real quality wins.
6-10 just couldn't quite put it together this year.
11-12 another year of futility.

wapiti
November 4th, 2024, 05:29 PM
1. Montana State ---Last week won at Eastern Washington 42-28, this week Sacramento State at home Bobcats continue to play for seeding.

2. UC Davis ---Last week beat Northern Colorado at home 59-7, this week at Montana---The Aggies secured a playoff spot with 8 Div 1 wins

3. Idaho ---Last week bye, this week at Portland State---The Vandals need to win 1 more to qualify for playoffs and with a FBS win that will likely be enough. With @PSU, Weber and @ISU the Vandals have a good chance of winning out the rest of the season.

4. Montana ---Last week won at Cal Poly 42-7, this week UC Davis at home---The Griz defense is starting to hum and that will be tested this week against UC Davis. The Griz have 7 Div 1 wins and with that will most likely be in the playoffs.

5. Northern Arizona ---Last week beat Weber State at home 27-6, this week at Cal Poly---The Lumberjacks best win is @Incarnate Word and will need to win out to earn 7 Div 1 wins

6. Portland State ---Last week won at Sacramento State 58-38, this week Idaho at home---Nice road win for the Vikings and knocked the Hornets from playoff consideration.

7. EWU---Lost to the top team in the conference, but was able to make a good game of it. The Eagles have given several good teams a good game, but not enough to earn a W in them.

8. Idaho State ---Last week bye, this week at Weber State---Is this upcoming game against Weber a bit of a rivalry game? The schools are only about 2 hours apart from each other.

9. Weber State ---Last week lost at Northern Arizona 27-6, this week Idaho State at home---The Wildcats have struggled their last 3 games. Have they given up like EWU did last year?

10. Sacramento State ---Last week lost to Portland State at home 58-38, this week at Montana State--- The Hornets started off the year highly ranked. Have the Hornets returned to being Suck State?

11. Cal Poly ---Last week lost to Montana at home 42-7, this week Northern Arizona at home

12. Northern Colorado ---Last week lost to UC Davis 59-7, this week Eastern Washington at home

MSUBobcat
November 4th, 2024, 05:58 PM
1. Montana State ---Last week won at Eastern Washington 42-28, this week Sacramento State at home Bobcats continue to play for seeding.

2. UC Davis ---Last week beat Northern Colorado at home 59-7, this week at Montana---The Aggies secured a playoff spot with 8 Div 1 wins

3. Idaho ---Last week bye, this week at Portland State---The Vandals need to win 1 more to qualify for playoffs and with a FBS win that will likely be enough. With @PSU, Weber and @ISU the Vandals have a good chance of winning out the rest of the season.

4. Montana ---Last week won at Cal Poly 42-7, this week UC Davis at home---The Griz defense is starting to hum and that will be tested this week against UC Davis. The Griz have 7 Div 1 wins and with that will most likely be in the playoffs.

5. Northern Arizona ---Last week beat Weber State at home 27-6, this week at Cal Poly---The Lumberjacks best win is @Incarnate Word and will need to win out to earn 7 Div 1 wins

6. Portland State ---Last week won at Sacramento State 58-38, this week Idaho at home---Nice road win for the Vikings and knocked the Hornets from playoff consideration.

7. EWU---Lost to the top team in the conference, but was able to make a good game of it. The Eagles have given several good teams a good game, but not enough to earn a W in them.

8. Idaho State ---Last week bye, this week at Weber State---Is this upcoming game against Weber a bit of a rivalry game? The schools are only about 2 hours apart from each other.

9. Weber State ---Last week lost at Northern Arizona 27-6, this week Idaho State at home---The Wildcats have struggled their last 3 games. Have they given up like EWU did last year?

10. Sacramento State ---Last week lost to Portland State at home 58-38, this week at Montana State--- The Hornets started off the year highly ranked. Have the Hornets returned to being Suck State?

11. Cal Poly ---Last week lost to Montana at home 42-7, this week Northern Arizona at home

12. Northern Colorado ---Last week lost to UC Davis 59-7, this week Eastern Washington at home

In a 12 game season, I disagree that 7 D1 wins will be enough to ensure a playoff berth. Idaho would be leaning pretty heavily on that FBS win, but they also have a good road win over likely playoff-participant ACU and bubble-team NAU so one more may be enough to get them in, but far from a sure thing IMO. In the case of the Griz, if they win no more games, they would have a nice win over MO State and a decent win over WCU, who is faltering. They would also have a loss to UND, who is stumbling down the stretch and likely to miss the playoffs, an inexplicable home loss to Weber, another not-good loss to PSU and would be ending their season on a 3 game schneid. I feel that the PSU game is an absolute must-win if they don't pull a W over Davis or MSU, as 7-5 with that resume isn't that impressive. This is likely a moot point, as Idaho is pretty heavily favored in all of their remaining games so winning at least 2 should be no problem and the Griz couldn't possibly ***** the bed that badly.... could they? PSU went on the road and beat Sac State, but c'mon....

NAU also got thumped 38-14 @ UIW, so their best win is....Sac State? ISU-o? Weber? EWU? Dealer's choice of middling Big Sky teams, all at home. The Jacks would be entering the post season on a 5 game winning streak, which may help push them over the edge.

wapiti
November 4th, 2024, 06:12 PM
In a 12 game season, I disagree that 7 D1 wins will be enough to ensure a playoff berth. Idaho would be leaning pretty heavily on that FBS win, but they also have a good road win over likely playoff-participant ACU and bubble-team NAU so one more may be enough to get them in, but far from a sure thing IMO. In the case of the Griz, if they win no more games, they would have a nice win over MO State and a decent win over WCU, who is faltering. They would also have a loss to UND, who is stumbling down the stretch and likely to miss the playoffs, an inexplicable home loss to Weber, another not-good loss to PSU and would be ending their season on a 3 game schneid. I feel that the PSU game is an absolute must-win if they don't pull a W over Davis or MSU, as 7-5 with that resume isn't that impressive. This is likely a moot point, as Idaho is pretty heavily favored in all of their remaining games so winning at least 2 should be no problem and the Griz couldn't possibly ***** the bed that badly.... could they? PSU went on the road and beat Sac State, but c'mon....

NAU also got thumped 38-14 @ UIW, so their best win is....Sac State? ISU-o? Weber? EWU? Dealer's choice of middling Big Sky teams, all at home. The Jacks would be entering the post season on a 5 game winning streak, which may help push them over the edge.

I misread the NAU IW game. IW won that.
so if NAU wins out they will not have a good win. Their best win would be EWU maybe Sac.

dbackjon
November 4th, 2024, 06:15 PM
I misread the NAU IW game. IW won that.
so if NAU wins out they will not have a good win. Their best win would be EWU maybe Sac.


If NAU gets to 8-4 they will be a solid bubble team.

Pros:
Only FCS losses are to top 15 teams (Idaho, Montana, UIW - all on the road).
5-game win streak


Cons:
Only 7 FCS wins
No "signature win"

MSUBobcat
November 4th, 2024, 06:22 PM
If NAU gets to 8-4 they will be a solid bubble team.

Pros:
Only FCS losses are to top 15 teams (Idaho, Montana, UIW - all on the road).
5-game win streak


Cons:
Only 7 FCS wins
No "signature win"

The 5 game win streak might be just enough, IMO. It all depends on who else is on the bubble of course, but it seems like the committee often favors how you are trending entering the post season. I think NAU has a pretty good shot at making it, both with their remaining schedule and the presumed resume.

JALMOND
November 4th, 2024, 07:26 PM
Determining where to place the mush in the middle (6-10) was pretty simple when I looked up all 5 teams in that range. I didn't want to push PSU that high but it sort of came out that way.

PSU--Wins over Idaho State (7) and Sacramento State (10), both on the road. Losses to Montana State (1), UC Davis (2) and Weber State (8) when Weber was killing everyone (see below).

ISU---Wins over Cal Poly (11) and Sacramento State (10). Losses to Montana State (1), Portland State (6) and Northern Arizona (5).

WSU---Wins over Portland State (6) and Montana (4). Something happened after the Montana game because they haven't won since then.

EWU--Win over Sacramento State (10). Losses to Montana (4), Davis (2), Montana State (1), and Idaho (3).

SAC--Win over Weber State (8) in 2OT. Losses to Portland State (6), Idaho State (7) and Eastern Washington (9).

My thinking is that PSU's game with Weber was the second game of the season and, if played now, the result may be different. PSU also gets the head to head over ISU by virtue of their win in Pocatello. ISU not far behind, though. Weber needs to get back to winning in which they could leap over both PSU and ISU. EWU has the head to head over SAC.

Pile of mush right now between those teams.