SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 11

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule
All games Saturday, 11/9. All times ET



AWAY
HOME
TIME
You’ll see … soon


Western Carolina
ETSU

12P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55073_ETSU-vs-WCU_20241109/stats/)




Mercer
VMI
1:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55199_VMI-vs-MER_20241109/stats/)



Chattanooga
The Citadel

2P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55225_CIT-vs-CHAT_20241109/stats/)




Wofford
Furman

2P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55202_FUR-vs-WOF_20241109/stats/)




Tennessee Tech
Samford

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55207_SAM-vs-TTU_20241109/stats/)







FUBeAR’s SoCon PowerRankings …




FUBeAR’s
PowerRank


SoCon
Team

FUBeAR’s
PowerRank
Notes

Massey
Projected
Overall Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Win %


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
Clearly #1

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)
#2 WITH Artopoeus

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Loss to Mercer, WCU



3

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)
#3 - would be #2 IF Chatt doesn’t have Artopoeus & most likely #4 IF WCU had Gonzales

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Chatt, Mercer



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)
#4 WITHOUT Gonazales

7-5


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Mercer, ETSU



5

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)
Very, very slight edge over Wofford

4-8


2-6


0.250


8

Wins over VMI, Samford



6

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)
QB#1 Odom’s return gives them a boost. Game this week against the Redshirting Paladins may not be quite as easy as they think it’s gonna be.

5-7


3-5


0.375


5

Wins over VMI, Samford, CIT



7

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)
Only position for them. 4 minutes of 1 game has really been their only bright spot in this entire season.

4-7


2-5


0.286


6

Wins over VMI, Mercer



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)
Refused to go winless. No surprise that Keydets don’t quit.

1-11


1-7


0.125


9

Win over Furman




















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)
Redshirt Season

3-8


2-5


0.286


6

Wins over CIT, Wofford



While FUBeAR is not completely eschewing SCIENCE, he’s now prepared to apply some of his own understanding.

[bonarae]

ETSU
UTC
Mercer
Furman
Samford

[wcugrad95]

I find it interesting that FUBeAR puts WCU #4 without Gonzales. Last I checked UTC has a very good defense, and Chase doesn’t play on that side of the ball. Yet our former all-state (think he was the 6A player of the year) in FL QB comes in for his first start and after looking shaky at the beginning he only goes 34 of 48 for 432 yards and 5 TDs. I think we are going to be ok with Dickens, and it shows Kerwin still knows how to run an offense without Kade 😀

I’ll still go pull my stoopid stats together, but this week I am going back to what I have seen - I think the stats need a couple more factors because my guess is they would still have UTC at the top even with 2 SOCON losses.

1. Mercer
2. WCU
3. Chattanooga
4. ETSU
5. Citadel
6. Wofford
7. Samford
8. VMI
9. Furman

I am basically doing this by looking at the SOCON standings but then if it is close I go to head-to-head. I just saw WCU beat UTC. If the Mocs can only run for 58 yards against the Cats I don’t really know how Chase makes up for that. WCU also fumbled a ball at the 1 and early on our young QB literally gave the ball to a Mocs defender as we were driving to give them a defensive TD to spot them a 14-0 lead. That is 2 scores in the first half that could have easily been different - no worse that WCU +3 but they turned into UTC +7. After that Mocs early 14-0 lead, WCU outscored them 38-20.

I have to put UTC ahead of the Bucs because they beat them. Then I have to drop Samford for now behind Citadel and Wofford because I just saw them lose to both the last 2 weeks. And making my power rankings be about if teams played this weekend, while I know Furman is decimated and probably still coulda/shoulda beat VMI on Saturday, they didn’t.

[Milktruck74]

I find it interesting that FUBeAR puts WCU #4 without Gonzales. Last I checked UTC has a very good defense, and Chase doesn’t play on that side of the ball. Yet our former all-state (think he was the 6A player of the year) in FL QB comes in for his first start and after looking shaky at the beginning he only goes 34 of 48 for 432 yards and 5 TDs. I think we are going to be ok with Dickens, and it shows Kerwin still knows how to run an offense without Kade 

I’ll still go pull my stoopid stats together, but this week I am going back to what I have seen - I think the stats need a couple more factors because my guess is they would still have UTC at the top even with 2 SOCON losses.

1. Mercer
2. WCU
3. Chattanooga
4. ETSU
5. Citadel
6. Wofford
7. Samford
8. VMI
9. Furman

I am basically doing this by looking at the SOCON standings but then if it is close I go to head-to-head. I just saw WCU beat UTC. If the Mocs can only run for 58 yards against the Cats I don’t really know how Chase makes up for that. WCU also fumbled a ball at the 1 and early on our young QB literally gave the ball to a Mocs defender as we were driving to give them a defensive TD to spot them a 14-0 lead. That is 2 scores in the first half that could have easily been different - no worse that WCU +3 but they turned into UTC +7. After that Mocs early 14-0 lead, WCU outscored them 38-20.

I have to put UTC ahead of the Bucs because they beat them. Then I have to drop Samford for now behind Citadel and Wofford because I just saw them lose to both the last 2 weeks. And making my power rankings be about if teams played this weekend, while I know Furman is decimated and probably still coulda/shoulda beat VMI on Saturday, they didn’t.

As far as the difference Chase makes for the Mocs 58 yards rushing, he is the field general that keeps the sticks moving and allows the Mocs to control the game clock. Without him, the RBs don't get the opportunities, the Defense is on the field more than they should be, so the opposing offense gets more opportunities. Schaumburg had some really nice throws (probably a better pure passer than CA) and he is going to be a solid option in the future, but he still has much to learn about fitting into Rusty's game strategy.

Taking noting away from Dickens, he had a great game and whipped the Mocs...That said, if Chase plays, it is a different game altogether. The lack of Mocs RBs production is absolutely correlated to CA not being able to go, because chase doesn't go 3 for 12 on 3rd downs, he doesn't give up a 12-minute TOP advantage...Not having CA gave the Cats 92 plays...35 more opportunities than Chattanooga. Chase understands how to extend drives by taking what the D gives...Lucas needs to learn to live to fight another down, and not try and get it all at once! When you take out sacks Chase has about 25 rushing attempts for 150 yards...Lucas has 1. He makes wise decisions that extend drives, where lucas just throws the ball away.

[caribbeanhen]

I hear the Fuboo family LLC will be making some changes prior to the deadline for this weeks picks, probably on a conference call as we speak

[FUBeAR]

1) I find it interesting that FUBeAR puts WCU #4 without Gonzales.

2) Last I checked UTC has a very good defense, and Chase doesn’t play on that side of the ball.

3) Yet our former all-state (think he was the 6A player of the year) in FL QB comes in for his first start and after looking shaky at the beginning he only goes 34 of 48 for 432 yards and 5 TDs. I think we are going to be ok with Dickens

4) If the Mocs can only run for 58 yards against the Cats I don’t really know how Chase makes up for that.


1) FUBeAR has not watched the Chatt @ WCU game. He may (or may not) feel differently after he does.

2 & 4) FUBeAR is almost certain that 95 has heard of the pervasive, current usage of the term “complementary football.” This does not mean that the Players are telling each other how nice they look. There is an “i” in that type of amicability, but still not one in “TEAM.” No, this phrase means, quite rightly so, that what the Offense does affects the effectiveness or the Defense, and mice-mersa. Not having an All SoCon caliber QB leading Chatt’s Offense, undoubtedly, affected the SoftLeatherShoes’ Defense, regardless of where he sits on the Team buses. Artopoeus throws darts on mid-range balls and the sweetest of long balls (except against Mercer). This is why he’s an All-SoCon caliber QB. Chatt’s QB#2, as far as FUBeAR knows has never (yet) been mentioned as an, or a potential, All SoCon QB. When a QB can throw mid-range darts and sweet long balls, a Defense has to decide whether or not to defend that by their alignments and calls. If a Defense doesn’t respect that with Artopoeus, he will Edward Scissorhands them into tatters, and then take the top off when they bite on double-moves to stop the mid-range bleeding. Can Chatt’s QB#2 do that? Though not dispositive, this indicates he cannot, or, at least, did not, consistently…



Player
Cmp
Att.
%
Yds.
TD
INT
Long
Sack


Schomburg,Luke
14
31
45.2
314
2
3
43
1



If WCU was able to play Cover 0 and Cover 1 most of the game, especially against a less effective runner than Artopoeus is (and he IS effective - not quite as effective as Gonzales, but still dangerous), as Chatt’s QB#2 MAY (dunno) be, they can put 7-8 in the box and prevent an effective run game, almost solely based on outnumbering the blockers.

3) Chatt had no tape on WCU’s QB#2 and that matters. This MAY apply to the ETSU @ Mercer game also - the Bears were ready for King (outside of 1 68 Yd TD on a totally blown coverage…95 coulda completed that pass) - not so much for English. Everyone knows they don’t speak King’s English in Maconga. Quick story to validate … One time FUBeAR, Coaching a HS Team, picked up a “tell” on video from an All-State QB (later a Payton Award winner & NFL QB). This was ID’d and confirmed via intensely watching 11 full games of video on the guy. FUBeAR, an OL Coach, alerted the D Staff to what he saw and we knew with near-100% accuracy pre-snap whether they were going to run or pass and were able to relay the “tell” and check to adjust our alignments and calls accordingly on most plays. Won us a 2nd round Playoff game (in OT). Was the fact that we had 11 full games of video on the kid to pick up that “tell” the difference in an OT game? Maybe. Hard to say it was not. If WCU’s Coaches cared to watch, they could have had at least 3 games of tape on Chatt’s QB #2 (@ Alabama ‘23, @APSU ‘23 & @FU ‘23). We’ll see how WCU’s QB #2 (now #1) performs in subsequent games. He’s obviously talented, but we Ball Coaches & Ball Players watch video for a reason…many reasons actually. Word to the wise - pass along to Coach Bell that QB#2, now QB#1, needs to align his feet the same way, pre-snap, regardless if the play call is a run or a pass. Don’t be like that future NFL QB was, as a HS Jr. He fixed his “tell” before his Sr. Year and beat us 2x…1st game of regular season & ending our season in another 2nd round Playoff game. xnodx

[FUBeAR]

I hear the Fuboo family LLC will be making some changes prior to the deadline for this weeks picks, probably on a conference call as we speak
Do to circumstances beyond our control - Covid or election interference or something like that, FUBeAR picks were solo last week…and it showed. 🤮

[FUBeAR]

As far as the difference Chase makes for the Mocs 58 yards rushing, he is the field general that keeps the sticks moving and allows the Mocs to control the game clock. Without him, the RBs don't get the opportunities, the Defense is on the field more than they should be, so the opposing offense gets more opportunities. Schaumburg had some really nice throws (probably a better pure passer than CA) and he is going to be a solid option in the future, but he still has much to learn about fitting into Rusty's game strategy.

Taking noting away from Dickens, he had a great game and whipped the Mocs...That said, if Chase plays, it is a different game altogether. The lack of Mocs RBs production is absolutely correlated to CA not being able to go, because chase doesn't go 3 for 12 on 3rd downs, he doesn't give up a 12-minute TOP advantage...Not having CA gave the Cats 92 plays...35 more opportunities than Chattanooga. Chase understands how to extend drives by taking what the D gives...Lucas needs to learn to live to fight another down, and not try and get it all at once! When you take out sacks Chase has about 25 rushing attempts for 150 yards...Lucas has 1. He makes wise decisions that extend drives, where lucas just throws the ball away.
Yeah…what he said.

[wcugrad95]

My only rebuttal is that WCU gave up over 300 yards rushing the previous week to Mercer. UTC at one point held a 14-0 lead in this game, but had only attempted something like 8 rushes in those 3 series. Chattanooga is historically a physical team, but even early on they decided they either couldn't or didn't want to try and run it against a Western D that most people run first against to setup the pass. I think the Mocs only attempted 14 runs in the first half and ended the game with only 24 total attempts (of course a few of those were sacks).

So maybe I should rethink my take and say that it was probably a loss on the coach's shoulders (which again would probably be similar no matter who the QB is). In the first half Western had 4 series of at least 8 plays (one that was 11). And those drives were during times when Chatty was having offensive success and had a few scores. So those shouldn't be on a tired D. I think Western simply has the Moc's number right now over UTC with our offense.

Sometimes teams just are bad matchups, and this felt like a bad matchup for Chattanooga with either our QB1 or QB2. It was maybe a perfect storm for our D to be facing an offense that didn't really try to run it and wanted to test the one relatively decent part of our D.

[843yapterrier]

1. Mercer
2. WCU
3. Chattanooga
4. ETSU
5. Wofford w Odom (maybe higher…)
6. Citadel
7. Samford
8. VMI -(Wofford w/o Odom
9. Furman

[FUBeAR]

My only rebuttal is that WCU gave up over 300 yards rushing the previous week to Mercer. UTC at one point held a 14-0 lead in this game, but had only attempted something like 8 rushes in those 3 series. Chattanooga is historically a physical team, but even early on they decided they either couldn't or didn't want to try and run it against a Western D that most people run first against to setup the pass. I think the Mocs only attempted 14 runs in the first half and ended the game with only 24 total attempts (of course a few of those were sacks).

So maybe I should rethink my take and say that it was probably a loss on the coach's shoulders (which again would probably be similar no matter who the QB is). In the first half Western had 4 series of at least 8 plays (one that was 11). And those drives were during times when Chatty was having offensive success and had a few scores. So those shouldn't be on a tired D. I think Western simply has the Moc's number right now over UTC with our offense.

Sometimes teams just are bad matchups, and this felt like a bad matchup for Chattanooga with either our QB1 or QB2. It was maybe a perfect storm for our D to be facing an offense that didn't really try to run it and wanted to test the one relatively decent part of our D.
Be the QB you are and count the WCU box on D. That MAY (again, FUBeAR has not watched the game) tell you a lot about why Chatt was ~60% Pass vs. Run. It’s possible that Chatt’s QB#2 (Starting record now 1-3) wasn’t enough of a threat, as Artopoeus definitely is, to move even half a man out of the box…and that can make all the difference on play type selection / rushing success.

[FUBeAR]

1. Mercer
2. WCU
3. Chattanooga
4. ETSU
5. Wofford w Odom (maybe higher…)
6. Citadel
7. Samford
8. VMI -(Wofford w/o Odom
9. Furman
https://c.tenor.com/wej71lfOh1QAAAAd/tenor.gif
…not even close.

0-4 / 104-32 / 26-8 … 3 scores behind 1-4. Odom doesn’t make up that kinda ground…and he played nearly the whole game vs. #1 … threw 3 INT’s, including a Pick6. Love him, but he ain’t THAT guy.

….vs. your #7…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
INT
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
12
20
203
0
1
38
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
4
15
34
-19
0
15
-4.8



vs. your (and consensus) #1…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
Int.
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
9
22
67
0
3
20
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
6
8
12
-4
0
7
-0.7

[wcugrad95]

On the WCU defensive approach, Bell had said on his show that after the Mercer showing we may give up 500 passing yards but we were going to line up to stop the run. So regardless of who was starting the Cats were going to at least attempt to stop the run and rely on our physical DBs to try and hold their own. So the guys we put in the box were part of the announced plan going in.

Bell also publicly challenged the defense and even said we had to get some guys playing who welcomed contact and wanted to tackle people. That kind of public commentary can either backfire or motivate guys. In this case it seemed to get the intended reaction.

[FUBeAR]

On the WCU defensive approach, Bell had said on his show that after the Mercer showing we may give up 500 passing yards but we were going to line up to stop the run. So regardless of who was starting the Cats were going to at least attempt to stop the run and rely on our physical DBs to try and hold their own. So the guys we put in the box were part of the announced plan going in.

Bell also publicly challenged the defense and even said we had to get time guys playing who welcomed contact and wanted to tackle people. That kind of public commentary can either backfire or motivate guys. In this case it seemed to get the intended reaction.
LOL - C’mon man … Bell also said on his show that Gonzalez (and Reid in ‘23) were just fine…and that the Holding Call when the WCU OLman arm-barred and Bear (or maybe Cat)-Hugged the Mercer DLman, who was running past him to blow up Gonzalez, to the ground, opening a big running lane for Gonzales, was a “phantom call,” for which the Referee, who had a perfectly clear view of the obvious Hold, should be suspended for making the call … of what he clearly was in position to see, and clearly saw.

FUBeAR puts, and any objective viewer should put, exactly a 0% credibility rating on anything Coach Bell says on his show.

Besides, if WCU puts 7-8 in the box against Artopoeus, the Catamount DB’s, as good as they are, which is VERY, are still dealing with this guy…

https://i.giphy.com/r5GIxZllRN4oU.webp

[Reign of Terrier]

https://c.tenor.com/wej71lfOh1QAAAAd/tenor.gif
…not even close.

0-4 / 104-32 / 26-8 … 3 scores behind 1-4. Odom doesn’t make up that kinda ground…and he played nearly the whole game vs. #1 … threw 3 INT’s, including a Pick6. Love him, but he ain’t THAT guy.

….vs. your #7…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
INT
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
12
20
203
0
1
38
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
4
15
34
-19
0
15
-4.8



vs. your (and consensus) #1…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
Int.
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
9
22
67
0
3
20
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
6
8
12
-4
0
7
-0.7




to be fair on the rushing numbers, he was sacked once and had the ball go over his head for a loss of like -28 on the two.

[Reign of Terrier]

LOL - C’mon man … Bell also said on his show that Gonzalez (and Reid in ‘23) were just fine…and that the Holding Call when the WCU OLman arm-barred and Bear (or maybe Cat)-Hugged the Mercer DLman, who was running past him to blow up Gonzalez, to the ground, opening a big running lane for Gonzales, was a “phantom call,” for which the Referee, who had a perfectly clear view of the obvious Hold, should be suspended for making the call … of what he clearly was in position to see, and clearly saw.

FUBeAR puts, and any objective viewer should put, exactly a 0% credibility rating on anything Coach Bell says on his show.

Besides, if WCU puts 7-8 in the box against Artopoeus, the Catamount DB’s, as good as they are, which is VERY, are still dealing with this guy…

https://i.giphy.com/r5GIxZllRN4oU.webp

FU_Bear remembers calls/no-calls he didn’t like more saliently than the Hatfields and McCoys remembered spites going back 3 generations.

[FUBeAR]

FU_Bear remembers calls/no-calls he didn’t like more saliently than the Hatfields and McCoys remembered spites going back 3 generations.
Whether or not FUBeAR likes or doesn’t like the call, he remembers them. See Holding on FU @ UIW in ‘22 - microsecond grab of the back of a backside DLman’s jersey - absolutely no impact on the outcome of the play, but the Holding Penalty probably was THE determining factor costing the Paladins a trip to the Quarterfinals. Furman fans were LIVID!

FUBeAR … “Did he grab his jersey? Then the call was correct.” Lotta FU peeps mad @ FUBeAR over that opinion, including some of the Coaching Staff. Don’t wanna get called for Holding, don’t grab his jersey … and don’t throw out your arm as a waist clothesline that you convert into a Bear/CatHug around the DLman’s waist.

[Milktruck74]

Chatt’s QB#2 (Starting record now 1-3)

I would point out that the 1-3 record are as follows

1 loss vs 2023 Alabama, which finished 5th in BCS rankings (which includes the longest reception of the season against the Tide)
1 FCS PLAYOFF Win AT #13 APSU
1 FCS PLAYOFF Loss AT #7 Furple
1 Loss at a playoff caliber Conference team in WCU.

Schaumburg may be 1-3 as a started and he has quite a bit of growing up to do...but name me any other FCS QB that has lined up against a tougher SOS in his tenure?

This week had some mixups in it. I think the UAC just gave up one, maybe two of their spots in the playoffs.

I still think My Mocs can make the field by winning out. That would be 8-4 with 8 FCS wins (8 in the last 9).
WCU has a great shot to make it at if they can win out and get that elusive SoCon Championship.
Mercer is in at 10-2 (baring some implosion) and a Share of the SoCon Championship.
And ETSU is still in the Mix, depending on next week.

The SoCon will have two teams in, should have three, and could have four.

Team 1 - Mercer is in.
Team 2 - WCU if they win out, Chattanooga if ETSU beats WCU.
Team 3 - Chattanooga if WCU wins out, ETSU if they beat WCU
Team 4 - WCU if they lose to ETSU, and gets a ton of help from around the country...and some favorable committee love!!! I just don't see a 7-5 ETSU team getting into the mix.

[wcugrad95]

Agree Milktruck except I think we’d have to dissect either WCU or ETSU at 7-5. I know losses are losses, but the world saw ETSU go toe-to-toe with the overwhelming #1 NDSU (should have won the game). They lost a hard fought game against the Mocs who for this exercise we feel is in the playoffs. And they had a chance to recover an onside kick to throw some deep passes to possibly come back on Mercer. Which was also a game they gave up 17 points on bad mistakes on the offensive side of the ball. So 3 tough losses that could have been wins.

Then WCU has undoubtedly as bad a loss as anybody who is in playoff consideration can have. We were struggling on O with a new OC to start the season. I’d say that problem has been resolved. We led 2 top-10 teams by 17 points on the road but failed to close either deal. And we just beat a playoff team that ETSU lost to.

So which team has the best argument between WCU and ETSU at 7-5? I think whoever wins might just go 8-4 and leave no doubt. But the question of the 7-5 team’s fate might also be heavily swayed with how this weekend goes (close or blow-out, fluke plays or a bunch of TOs swaying the outcome, etc.).

[The Cats]

Picks for Week #11:

Western Carolina (5-4, 4-1 Southern) at ETSU (5-4, 3-2 Southern)
Mercer (8-1, 5-1 Southern) at VMI (1-8, 1-4 Southern)
Chattanooga (5-4, 4-2 Southern) at The Citadel (4-5, 2-4 Southern)
Wofford (4-5, 2-4 Southern) at Furman (2-6, 1-3 Southern)
Tennessee Tech (4-5) at Samford (3-5)


Power Rankings
Last week's ranking are in parentheses.

1. (1) Mercer (8-1)
Next: at VMI (1-8)

2. ( 3) Western Carolina (5-4)
Next: at ETSU (5-4)

3. (2) Chattanooga (5-4)
Next: at The Citadel (4-5)

4. (4) ETSU (5-4)
Next: Western Carolina (5-4)

5. (4) The Citadel (4-5)
Next: Chattanooga (5-4)

6. (7) Wofford (4-5)
Next: at Furman (2-6)

7. (6) Samford (3-5)
Next: Tenn Tech (4-5)

8. (9) VMI (1-8)
Next: Mercer (9-1)

9. (8) Furman (2-6)
Next: Wofford (4-5)

[The Cats]

from the first trophy game, 6 years ago...


https://catamountsports.com/images/2023/11/3/2023_BlueRidgeBorderBattle_SPLASH.png







https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3oHFnRXaWZw

[Reign of Terrier]

Chatt is in if they win out. Western may have a bad loss on their resume, but they themselves aren't a bad loss. Starting the season 0-3, having 8 D1 wins, playing 2 FBS teams, and winning 7 of your last 8 means, unequivocally, you get a bid. Especially with wins over ETSU and curb stomping Wofford. If Richmond doesn't get a CAA autobid, they have an edge over the spiders ( I would pull for W&M maybe when they play in a couple weeks?)

ETSU needs to win out. Maybe the NDSU loss looks good. Maybe not. But only having 6 D1 wins looks bad on the resume. If ETSU's best win is 6-6 Wofford, that's not the best thing. The Richmond principle applies.

So, ideally, I'd say the socon is getting 3. If they get 4, I'd rather that fourth team be ETSU because they don't have a bad loss like western. So go catamounts next week I guess. I would bet on the over.

Historically, the committee HATES 8-4 socon teams, but thankfully we did good enough OOC to maybe make a difference. It would be a slam dunk 4 team thing if ETSU didn't schedule UVA Wise and if Western didn't lose to Campbell.

[wcugrad95]

Certainly agree on your last statement. If that is even a Pioneer-team win for both squads we would both be looking at bids. WCU could even afford to lose this game had we gone 2-2 OOC. I know historically the committee might not like 8-4 SOCON teams, but I think there is more evidence they don't hate 6-2 conference records by the top 4 leagues. But I have no doubts Western has no shot if we don't win 'em all. We have 2 "quality losses" to top-10 teams that we led, and we lost our FBS game. But the Campbell game is there to really hurt if we let it.

[Reign of Terrier]

to be fair, the “committee hates 8-4 teams” is exclusively true about Chattanooga. I think it happened to them twice under Huesman. Milltruck can correct me on that. But the socon is definitely deeper now.

the other thing that will help western (again, gotta beat ETSU) is Montana continuing to play well. And yes, selfishly, Wofford playing well will help ETSU because that may turn out to be the Bucs best win and a mutual opponent that they look better against compared to another playoff team.

[FUBeAR]

Sorry Catamounts. The LandPirates will OWN the 4th quarter after Hootie croons Wagon Wheel during the quarter break…
https://twitter.com/nsdugan/status/1853483657056354414
Walkin' to the south out of Roanoke
I caught a trucker out of Philly, had a nice long toke
But he's a-headin' west from the Cumberland Gap
To Johnson City, Tennessee

…even tho his Philly trucker is completely lost. Johnson City is EAST of the Cumberland Gap. He was on the right track heading south out of Roanoke, but then…maybe too much toking. He’s never gonna die in Raleigh goin’ that way...free or not free.

[wcugrad95]

But his target was to make it to NC so he could die free. So he obviously would back the NC-based team, right???

[wcugrad95]

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1853868038447112379




That is a pretty crazy stat. How many other teams in the country could sustain an injury to their possible Conference OPOTY QB and not really miss a beat? I'd venture to guess not too many. I think we have (and have had) some talented QBs in Cullowhee the last few years, but this kind of blew me away and shows that if you go to Western and have some talent and take time to get command of this offense, Coach Bell's scheme will help you put up some big time numbers.

Of course we need it to also include wins, but it has to be good marketing material for guys who don't sign with the big boys to think about playing in Bell's offense.

[FU_Paladin08]

Week 11 Rankings:
Mercer
WCU
Chatt
ETSU
Wofford
Samford
CIT
VMI
Furman


Picks:
Wofford beats Furman
UTC beats The Citadel
WCU beats ETSU
Mercer beats VMI
Samford beats Tenn Tech

[FUBeAR]

https://twitter.com/CraigHaley/status/1853868038447112379


That is a pretty crazy stat. How many other teams in the country could sustain an injury to their possible Conference OPOTY QB and not really miss a beat? I'd venture to guess not too many. I think we have (and have had) some talented QBs in Cullowhee the last few years, but this kind of blew me away and shows that if you go to Western and have some talent and take time to get command of this offense, Coach Bell's scheme will help you put up some big time numbers.

Of course we need it to also include wins, but it has to be good marketing material for guys who don't sign with the big boys to think about playing in Bell's offense.
WOW! Impressive Stat, indeed!

That 2021 WCU Team must’ve run away with the SoCon Championship, huh?
[FUBeAR checks notes] … Nope … ETSU won the SoCon. WCU finished in a 3-way tie for 4th @ 4-4.

Well, crazy things happen in the SoCon. Surely, with that kind of QB talent/production, the 2021 Catamounts made a nice run in the Playoffs, right?
[FUBeAR checks notes] … Nope … At 4-7 … that 2021 WCU didn’t come anywhere near getting even a whiff of a Playoff berth.


​Oh well … no worries. Surely, it’ll turn out differently this year…

https://c.tenor.com/g7nzxqrG9GIAAAAd/tenor.gif

[Sandlapper Spike]

Just a quick note: Chattanooga-The Citadel is a 2pm ET kickoff. At least, I hope it is...

(As always, relying on the SoCon website can be a dicey proposition.)

[FUBeAR]

Just a quick note: Chattanooga-The Citadel is a 2pm ET kickoff. At least, I hope it is...

(As always, relying on the SoCon website can be a dicey proposition.)
Thanks - Post #1 edited to match the 2:00 PM time posted on CIT’s website & rows re-sorted to reflect proper time progression.

Also, FUBeAR checked with the SoCon Digital Communications Team and they provided a copy of an email from CIT’s Athletics Administration advising the SoCon of a 1:00 PM kickoff for the Chatt @ CIT game.

Finger-pointing scandals are the best!

[wcugrad95]

The stat about WCU’s QB numbers was primarily about how good Bell’s offensive system is. Earlier this year there were lots of questions (even in Western circles) that maybe Kade Bell was the straw that stirred the drink. But I think it is clear that Kerwin still knows how to run an offense.

And my post even said these numbers need to come with wins. But if you turn back the clock to pre-Bell football at WCU it was very dark. Since taking over at Western Coach Bell has secured at least a .500 SOCON record each season (including this one as we already have 4 league victories). Nobody is content or wants to settle for that - but he deserves a ton of credit in moving WCU from being a doormat to being a top-half team.

We might finish 5-3 in the league again (but we might go 7-1 and be no worse than co-champs), but I’d expect his offense remains the one in the SOCON teams hate to face the most.

Offense sells and defense wins, so we’ll have to see if WCU can play at least solid D in these next 3 to get the huge monkey off our backs and finally make the playoffs this time around.

[gofurman]

https://c.tenor.com/wej71lfOh1QAAAAd/tenor.gif
…not even close.

0-4 / 104-32 / 26-8 … 3 scores behind 1-4. Odom doesn’t make up that kinda ground…and he played nearly the whole game vs. #1 … threw 3 INT’s, including a Pick6. Love him, but he ain’t THAT guy.

….vs. your #7…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
INT
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
12
20
203
0
1
38
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
4
15
34
-19
0
15
-4.8



vs. your (and consensus) #1…

PASSING


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
Int.
Long
Sack


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
9
22
67
0
3
20
1


RUSHING


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Odom,Amari (https://woffordterriers.com/sports/football/roster/amari-odom/8606)
6
8
12
-4
0
7
-0.7





Maybe Odom is great but his stat line is 4 TDs and 4 INTs for the year... a 1:1 ratio. That is not good. My Furman guys are horrible and BOTH our QBs have a positive TD to INT ratio.

I am objective. What I did see with Odom was some really big passes like 20 completions on 30 attempts for 200 yards !! WOW. Impressive. I was just surprised to see a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. regardless, niether Wofford nor Furman are going to the playoffs... also a 54% completion ratio? But with him at QB you all beat GWebb and Richmond and Samford... so you got the wins !

Wofford has had a better year this year for sure (Richmond, Samford wins). Furman the MUCH better of the past 2 or 3 years with good playoff runs etc !! Hopefully both teams represent the SoCon well next year and are back to the top of the league

[gofurman]

Chatt is in if they win out. Western may have a bad loss on their resume, but they themselves aren't a bad loss. Starting the season 0-3, having 8 D1 wins, playing 2 FBS teams, and winning 7 of your last 8 means, unequivocally, you get a bid. Especially with wins over ETSU and curb stomping Wofford. If Richmond doesn't get a CAA autobid, they have an edge over the spiders ( I would pull for W&M maybe when they play in a couple weeks?)

ETSU needs to win out. Maybe the NDSU loss looks good. Maybe not. But only having 6 D1 wins looks bad on the resume. If ETSU's best win is 6-6 Wofford, that's not the best thing. The Richmond principle applies.

So, ideally, I'd say the socon is getting 3. If they get 4, I'd rather that fourth team be ETSU because they don't have a bad loss like western. So go catamounts next week I guess. I would bet on the over.

Historically, the committee HATES 8-4 socon teams, but thankfully we did good enough OOC to maybe make a difference. It would be a slam dunk 4 team thing if ETSU didn't schedule UVA Wise and if Western didn't lose to Campbell.


Reign of Terrier - who is out for Wofford in this game vs Furman? **Or, maybe better, Which STARTERS are possibly missing (and their numbers)? And I mean from the beginning of the year to now. I think you had a good DL out early on? What number was he? Is he back? I like to watch with an informed eye and see if a guy we thought wasn't playing does play or vice versa.

IE, I KNOW you know your Woffd football so a list just like this: (completely making this up)
5 interior DL was out, probably back now. Starter and All-conference level
7 MLB was out, probably still out. Starter.
62 on OL maybe plays this week. Starter

then I just know who to look for ...


I will be more than happy to reply in kind if you want with a few "iffy" for Furman etc. Though you probably don't want that ... LOL

Thanks in advance for your answer. I do think people are too QB-centric on here. no game is as much about TEAM as is football.

[FUBeAR]

The stat about WCU’s QB numbers was primarily about how good Bell’s offensive system is. Earlier this year there were lots of questions (even in Western circles) that maybe Kade Bell was the straw that stirred the drink. But I think it is clear that Kerwin still knows how to run an offense.

And my post even said these numbers need to come with wins. But if you turn back the clock to pre-Bell football at WCU it was very dark. Since taking over at Western Coach Bell has secured at least a .500 SOCON record each season (including this one as we already have 4 league victories). Nobody is content or wants to settle for that - but he deserves a ton of credit in moving WCU from being a doormat to being a top-half team.

We might finish 5-3 in the league again (but we might go 7-1 and be no worse than co-champs), but I’d expect his offense remains the one in the SOCON teams hate to face the most.

Offense sells and defense wins, so we’ll have to see if WCU can play at least solid D in these next 3 to get the huge monkey off our backs and finally make the playoffs this time around.
Would you agree that WCU MUST win out to make the Playoffs at 8-4 (unless Mercer loses to BOTH of the currently 2 bottom SoCon Teams AND a complicated scenario involving ETSU, which would be dependent upon the outcome of the WCU @ ETSU and other games, breaks the right way for WCU…giving WCU the SoCon AutoBid)?

2 of the 3 remaining games are on the road, including @ ETSU.

We know ETSU is a very good, ranked or should be ranked, Team that took FCS all-but-consensus #1 NDSU to the wire (and shoulda won) at Home.

And we know that Samford, while ridiculously inconsistent, can be dangerous in any game. That one’s in Homewood.

VMI at Home seems clearly winnable, but we saw what happened last year in Lexington when the mostly-Gonzales-less (think he played 2 series) Catamounts faced the Keydets.

FUBeAR would love to see all 4 should-be-Top-15 SoCon Teams (Mercer, Chatt, ETSU, and WCU) make the Playoffs, but the path for WCU seems very narrow. A win on Saturday would clear a lot of giant logs off that road, but defeating ETSU in Johnson City is a giant redwood, firmly rooted in the center lane. FUBeAR’s final picks will come later, but he’s a-leanin’ toward the LandLockedSeaFelons right about now.

[wcugrad95]

I certainly agree because of the embarassing no-show against Campbell that WCU has to win out to get to 8-4 to make the playoffs. Tall order with 2 on the road and a history of losing a game at or towards the end of the season. But I'll also say it was a tall-order last week against the Mocs as well. I'd guess most people expected WCU to fold-up and get crushed when Gonzales was seen on crutches on the sideline, and probably a lot of "here we go" when we found ourselves down to UTC 14-0 early with a couple of mistakes.

Like I said, Western might lose all of the rest of our games. But I think another big difference with this team and the culture now is that WCU feels like we can win them all, too. More talent by far, but we also seem to have a little more fight and drive than we had before Bell got to campus. I certainly can remember lots of years under previous staffs where the team downright quit - sometimes on a play, but sometimes on an entire game or on the last part of a season. A 6-6/5-3 record 5 or 6 years ago would bring praise and probably an extension to the coach's contract in Cullowhee. Now it is considered the floor of where we should be. That is not great by any stretch, but light-years better than the past.

Teams have to change the talent-level and their culture first. Then they have to learn how to handle and overcome adversity. Then they have to learn how to win games they would previously lose. Then they have to learn to take care of teams they should and also put teams away when they have them down. Then you are championship-level. I think WCU is trying to get over the hump of that last step, and the next 3 weeks will tell us how close the Cats are coming to going from top-half to top-shelf, or staying as just a good, solid team.

[ElCid]

So, what will happen to the SOCON race and playoff prospects when The Citadel put a thumping on Chatty this Saturday?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[wcugrad95]

So a Bulldogs win IMO would mean UTC is sitting at home. Sounds like Schomburg will be at the helm for the Mocs again, and (for every game he has ever started) it will be on the road. The Citadel are in one of those phases I talked about trying to learn how to win, so this one could be interesting.

WCU, ETSU, and UTC are all in must-win-out situations. People seem to have fixated on that for Western, but IMO any SOCON team with playoff aspirations has to get to 8 wins. Chattanooga has the 2 FBS games to fall back on, while WCU has the ugly loss that is a black-eye. But ETSU also has a non-D1 win on their record that would doom them when comparing records to other teams if they only have 7 total (and only 6 D1).

Every game left is the playoff for all 3 - next loss and you are out.

[Catamount87]

Without a doubt all three are in a win out or be left out situation. Between WCU, ETSU and UTC, the Mocs may have the toughest road to go, @ Citadel (4-5), home Samford (3-5) and @ Peay (4-5). WCU has two road games, @ ETSU (5-4) and @ Samford (3-5) then VMI (1-8) at home. ETSU has a slight edge as they have two home games WCU (5-4), Furman (2-6) then at VMI (1-8).

[Reign of Terrier]

The stat about WCU’s QB numbers was primarily about how good Bell’s offensive system is. Earlier this year there were lots of questions (even in Western circles) that maybe Kade Bell was the straw that stirred the drink. But I think it is clear that Kerwin still knows how to run an offense.

And my post even said these numbers need to come with wins. But if you turn back the clock to pre-Bell football at WCU it was very dark. Since taking over at Western Coach Bell has secured at least a .500 SOCON record each season (including this one as we already have 4 league victories). Nobody is content or wants to settle for that - but he deserves a ton of credit in moving WCU from being a doormat to being a top-half team.

We might finish 5-3 in the league again (but we might go 7-1 and be no worse than co-champs), but I’d expect his offense remains the one in the SOCON teams hate to face the most.

Offense sells and defense wins, so we’ll have to see if WCU can play at least solid D in these next 3 to get the huge monkey off our backs and finally make the playoffs this time around.

Yeah, the success is mainly due to the air raid. Not a criticism of any of your QBs, 99% of all FCS QBs ever have been system QBs, and it’s all about the system. Wofford’s system currently sucks. Air raid principles are really good for the college level. Everyone hates dink and dunks, but if they are the cornerstone of your offense AND you can run the ball, it’s hard to stop your offense, especially against similar talent levels.

[Reign of Terrier]

Maybe Odom is great but his stat line is 4 TDs and 4 INTs for the year... a 1:1 ratio. That is not good. My Furman guys are horrible and BOTH our QBs have a positive TD to INT ratio.

I am objective. What I did see with Odom was some really big passes like 20 completions on 30 attempts for 200 yards !! WOW. Impressive. I was just surprised to see a 1:1 TD to INT ratio. regardless, niether Wofford nor Furman are going to the playoffs... also a 54% completion ratio? But with him at QB you all beat GWebb and Richmond and Samford... so you got the wins !

Wofford has had a better year this year for sure (Richmond, Samford wins). Furman the MUCH better of the past 2 or 3 years with good playoff runs etc !! Hopefully both teams represent the SoCon well next year and are back to the top of the league

Half of his picks were off drops, and 3 of them were in one game…Mercer. When he was spiralling and maybe a little hurt.

Some on the Wofford board described the matchup of Wofford’s offense against Furman’s defense as the stoppable force vs the movable object and I think that tracks.

[Reign of Terrier]

Reign of Terrier - who is out for Wofford in this game vs Furman? **Or, maybe better, Which STARTERS are possibly missing (and their numbers)? And I mean from the beginning of the year to now. I think you had a good DL out early on? What number was he? Is he back? I like to watch with an informed eye and see if a guy we thought wasn't playing does play or vice versa.

IE, I KNOW you know your Woffd football so a list just like this: (completely making this up)
5 interior DL was out, probably back now. Starter and All-conference level
7 MLB was out, probably still out. Starter.
62 on OL maybe plays this week. Starter

then I just know who to look for ...


I will be more than happy to reply in kind if you want with a few "iffy" for Furman etc. Though you probably don't want that ... LOL

Thanks in advance for your answer. I do think people are too QB-centric on here. no game is as much about TEAM as is football.

Wofford is missing 2 starters on offense, our best defensive player in DL Brandon Maina and our LB Morgan. Both haven’t played since game 3 or 4. Both are out for the year. One of our wide outs is also out for the year, but he had minimal statistical impact.

Wofford’s defense is stout. In spite of the injuries, we’re rotating lots of young guys. We’re going to lose a couple good corners next year, but already the backups each have a pick or two I think. Wofford’s deep on defense. Injuries suck, obviously, but it’s all about program building.

On offense, we have depth too, but a different kind of depth in that our offense sucks and no one outside of Watkins and Odom really differentiate themselves, and even then the former depends heavily on the latter. Then again, most of our receivers are young, so who knows.

[FUBeAR]

SoCon Schedule & FUBeAR’s PERFECT PICKS
All games Saturday, 11/9. All times ET



AWAY
HOME
TIME
You’ll see … soon


Western Carolina
ETSU

12P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55073_ETSU-vs-WCU_20241109/stats/)

Darius is gonna sing about a wagon before the 4th quarter starts and the LandSailingCriminals are going to load it and run the dang ball from Kickoff until the final whistle. WCU’s run D is ranked #99th in FCS and this is not gonna be 99 problems for the CorsairClimbers’ Top 20 Rushing Offense. On the other side of the ball, ETSU is talented and aggressive. They also have, something the SnakyBirds didn’t - a full game tape on the LilacLionsOfTheMountains new QB. He, and the Kitties O will still ‘get theirs,’ but the Bucs’ O is gonna control the clock and limit those opportunities…and flip the sheet music (and the direction from the Cumberland Gap to Johnson City) on their close losses to NDSU, Chatt, and Mercer.

ETSU 29 - WCU 28


Mercer
VMI
1:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55199_VMI-vs-MER_20241109/stats/)
Bears bore us, and VMI, as they control this one from start (that’ll be different) to finish. But, because of ETSU’s win over WCU and the outcome of this game, Mercer celebrates clinching at least a share of their 1st-ever SoCon Football Championship right there on Alumni Field, where it all started for them 10 seasons ago on 9/27/14 - with their 1st SoCon game & 1st SoCon victory.

Mercer 31 - VMI 10


Chattanooga
The Citadel

2P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55225_CIT-vs-CHAT_20241109/stats/)

Chatt bounces back against a group of game bellhops. Unfortunately, the bellhops had to tote all the Alumni luggage on Homecoming Weekend and are just too tired to finish this one strong, but the tips they earned will spend well.

Chattanooga 17 - CIT 14


Wofford
Furman

2P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55202_FUR-vs-WOF_20241109/stats/)

Furman’s youngsters pull it all together and get some measure of revenge for the 71 Furman Players who fell to Woffy last season and graduated without an opportunity to exact the revenge for themselves. So, on Sr. Day in Paladin Stadium, when 2 Student Equipment Managers, 1 Student Trainer, and their families will be the only ones eligible to be so honored, Furman gets it done.

Furman 24 - Wofford 14


Tennessee Tech
Samford

3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/55207_SAM-vs-TTU_20241109/stats/)

With a crowd of 2 Student Equipment Managers and 1 Student Trainer in attendance, Samford gets back on the winning track OOC.

Samford 35 - TTU 24





FUBeAR’s SoCon PowerRankings …




FUBeAR’s
PowerRank


SoCon
Team

FUBeAR’s
PowerRank
Notes

Massey
Projected
Overall Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Win %


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
Clearly #1

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)
#2 WITH Artopoeus

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Loss to Mercer, WCU



3

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)
#3 - would be #2 IF Chatt doesn’t have Artopoeus & most likely #4 IF WCU had Gonzales

8-4


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Chatt, Mercer



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)
#4 WITHOUT Gonazales

7-5


6-2


0.750


2

Losses to Mercer, ETSU



5

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)
Very, very slight edge over Wofford

4-8


2-6


0.250


8

Wins over VMI, Samford



6

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)
QB#1 Odom’s return gives them a boost. Game this week against the Redshirting Paladins may not be quite as easy as they think it’s gonna be.

5-7


3-5


0.375


5

Wins over VMI, Samford, CIT



7

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)
Only position for them. 4 minutes of 1 game has really been their only bright spot in this entire season.

4-7


2-5


0.286


6

Wins over VMI, Mercer



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)
Refused to go winless. No surprise that Keydets don’t quit.

1-11


1-7


0.125


9

Win over Furman




















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)
Redshirt Season

3-8


2-5


0.286


6

Wins over CIT, Wofford



While FUBeAR is not completely eschewing SCIENCE, he’s now prepared to apply some of his own understanding.

[FUBeAR]

Finally watched the 1st half of Chatt @ WCU…

HOT TAKE1: WCU’s #47 is an All-SoCon quality LB, who is a “Special Teams Players” (per WCU’s broadcast guy, Daniel Hooker) and listed as 3rd Team (edit - just saw he has moved up to 2nd Team this week) on WCU’s published depth chart. He was one of several Catamount Players, who, as best FUBeAR can understand, started vs. Chatt to teach the ‘real’ Starters a lesson because of their poor performance @ Mercer. He was all over the field - mostly in Chatt’s backfield - during the first several series of the game - reminded FUBeAR a lot of Furman’s All-American LB, Evan DiMaggio. Then, it seems, having learned their lessons, the ‘real’ Starters were filtered into the game. Maybe this was a great Coaching move - WCU won that game, right? And/Or, maybe #47 is a 3rd Teamer at WCU because his 40 time is a tenth of a second slower than the guys ahead of him…or maybe he’s not from FL - dunno. But, once we put the final Players’ luxury suites into the indoor practice facility at FUBeAR University and get our Team started, FUBeAR hopes he finds WCU’s #47 in the portal. He has a PHAT NIL deal and a spot on FUBeAR’s roster - as a full-time Starter.

HOT TAKE2: Dickens was SORE, without a doubt, on Sunday. Coach Bell must have a great deal of confidence in HIS backup. ETSU’s smaller, quicker, and a bit more athletic Defenders won’t whiff on him as often as Chatt’s, who had no video on him, did. They’ll still whiff some because he’s, indeed, a slippery customer. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Coach Lamb put a “Spy” on him - maybe a rangy, athletic Player like #21 LB, Ray Coney. Mercer did that, with some success, on WCU’s QB, Tyrie Adams, during Coach Lamb’s tenure at Mercer. This will be interesting to watch.

If FUBeAR gets a chance to watch the 2nd half, FUBeAR may have a couple more Hot Takes … WCU fans can’t wait for those…FUBeAR is certain!

[kdinva]

ETSU 35; WCU 27
UTC 24; THE CITADEL 16
WOFFORD 27; FURMAN 23
SAMFORD 35; TENN. TECH 31
MERCER 33; VMI 17

[gofurman]

Wofford is missing 2 starters on offense, our best defensive player in DL Brandon Maina and our LB Morgan. Both haven’t played since game 3 or 4. Both are out for the year. One of our wide outs is also out for the year, but he had minimal statistical impact.

Wofford’s defense is stout. In spite of the injuries, we’re rotating lots of young guys. We’re going to lose a couple good corners next year, but already the backups each have a pick or two I think. Wofford’s deep on defense. Injuries suck, obviously, but it’s all about program building.

On offense, we have depth too, but a different kind of depth in that our offense sucks and no one outside of Watkins and Odom really differentiate themselves, and even then the former depends heavily on the latter. Then again, most of our receivers are young, so who knows.

Thanks - may I ask which 2 starters on the Offense? what positions? Thanks in advance for the reply.

Again, if you want an update on us I will be happy to give it.. .but you probably don't loll

[wcugrad95]

I'll at least agree with parts of your Hot Takes FUBeAR.

Hot Take #1: Blue Monroe (#47) is definitely a guy who finds the football, and then usually makes tackles when he gets there. He played throughout the game and has been getting more snaps the last few weeks. The problem is he is playing at the MLB position where he and the starter (Turner) are both pretty good. He'd be playing a lot more with that little bit of extra speed you mentioned if he could move to another position and there was no concern about covering RBs out of the backfield, but I expect them to play Blue more snaps. Players make plays and I think Blue Monroe can do that for Western.

Hot Take #2: Dickens is no doubt slippery. I am not sure the Tyrie Adams comparison that I heard on the broadcast is exactly appropriate, as Adams was a ridiculous athlete (won the SOCON high jump as a FR at over 7") and was quite a bit taller. I'd say Dickens is maybe "slippier-er" and straight out faster, where Adams (although very slim) could also put his shoulder down if he really needed to even at only like 185 lbs. My own hot take is that he'll make a ton of plays, but I want him to tuck that ball in a little bit better!

With WCU's offense, I'd say if ETSU uses a defender as a spy and Dickens can be patient that will leave one of the Cat's talented WRs or RBs open on short passes with room in the middle of the field while that extra defender is tied-up. I'd roll Dickens out a ton in this game - but I'd also run the football quite a bit, too. In SOCON-only games ETSU is currently the #2 rushing team in the conference (averaging 159.6/SOCON game) and WCU is #3 (averaging 154.6).

For Western's D - Coach Bell said after the Mercer game that he didn't care if we gave up 500 passing yards, we had to get better at and be committed to stopping the run game. That can backfire particularly against a very capable running QB, and/or it can backfire in that you'll be leaving your DBs on islands (UTC got several long completions). So it will be interesting to see who ETSU starts at QB, and if Western has any different kind of philosophy or scheme against the Bucs this week compared to the Chattanooga game.

[FUBeAR]

Sam sez… https://herosports.com/week-11-fcs-predictions-uc-davis-montana-sdsu-und-bzbz/

No. 22 Western Carolina at ETSU
A must-win game for both to keep their playoff hopes alive.

WCU and ETSU are 5-4 overall. If either wins out, they’ll have a good shot at the bracket at 8-4, although ETSU’s non-D1 win could be a factor on the bubble. But beating a ranked WCU team, plus close losses to Chattanooga and Mercer would give an 8-win ETSU squad a good argument for the bracket.

WCU got a big-time ranked win last week, beating Chattanooga 38-34. And the Catamounts did it without their star QB Cole Gonzales. But all good there, because redshirt freshman Taron Dickens stepped in and went 34/48 for 431 yards, five touchdowns, and one interception. He also led the team, which has struggled to get its running backs going consistently, with 41 yards on the ground.

ETSU feels it could easily be 8-1 right now instead of 5-4. They gave then-No. 2 NDSU a 38-35 win, lost 17-10 vs. Chattanooga, and last week gave up an early 14-3 lead on Top 10 Mercer and lost 37-31. Controversial flags (see FUBeAR note below) were thrown on back-to-back ETSU onside kick recoveries.

Sometimes it is the bounce of the ball or unfortunate whistles not going your way. But at some point, you need to find ways to win those close games. I think that fortune turns ETSU’s way this weekend, especially at home. It seems like a team destined to make the playoffs, but that won’t happen unless the Bucs get a win on Saturday. A costly turnover late is the difference in this back-and-forth battle.

Prediction: ETSU 34-31



FUBeAR Note: There was nothing “controversial” about the flag on the 2nd ETSU onside kick at Mercer. The Kicker clearly touched the ball clearly before it had gone 10 yards, and clearly before any Mercer Player touched the ball..

https://i.postimg.cc/9MqZj1Pw/IMG-1518.jpg

[Reign of Terrier]

Thanks - may I ask which 2 starters on the Offense? what positions? Thanks in advance for the reply.

Again, if you want an update on us I will be happy to give it.. .but you probably don't loll
typo - meant defense

[gofurman]

typo - meant defense

gotcha. thanks. Yes, I hate Wofford but if you were to make the playoff next year or so I would have to pull for ya'll and every SoCon team. sick of the bias. Go Mercer.. Go ? - GO SoCon !!!

Q for anyone - I haven't kept up. they are seeding 1-16 now so no more regionalization and less cannibalization... right?

[The Cats]

ETSU 35; WCU 27


Just curious, have you ever picked Western to win?

[BearDownMU]

Just curious, have you ever picked Western to win?

It's been an extraordinary amount of time. Three whole weeks ago. lol

Thread: SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 8 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?366480-SoCon-2024-Predictions-and-Power-Rankings-Week-8)by kdinva (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/member.php?3037-kdinva)


Replies183Views5,128


Re: SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 8 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?366480-SoCon-2024-Predictions-and-Power-Rankings-Week-8&p=3215590#post3215590)
UTC 33; Wofford 17
WCU 24; Furman 17
Mercer 34; samford 17
VMI 20; The Citadel 16

[FUBeAR]

Just curious, have you ever picked Western to win?
It's been an extraordinary amount of time. Three whole weeks ago. lol

Thread: SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 8 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?366480-SoCon-2024-Predictions-and-Power-Rankings-Week-8)

by kdinva
(https://www.anygivensaturday.com/member.php?3037-kdinva)
Re: SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 8 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?366480-SoCon-2024-Predictions-and-Power-Rankings-Week-8&p=3215590#post3215590)
UTC 33; Wofford 17
WCU 24; Furman 17
Mercer 34; samford 17
VMI 20; The Citadel 16

SHOCKINGLY DISRESPECTFUL!!!

Sadly, you gotta reach back WAY farther than that to find the last time FUBeAR was a Catamount Fan - all the way back to Week 7…



THE CITADEL
WCU
2:30P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/54182_WCU-vs-CIT_20241012/stats/)
The bellhops, silly bellhops, got their little hearts broken last week. But they played hard and, at times, played well. At the same time, the Cantamounts high-powered Offense, was scoring at the astronomical rate of 1 TD/half against Woffy. At least it was better than their All-World O’s TD-less effort against the SoupSellers. The MountainFelines were more than fortunate to come away with an unwitnessed win. They have fans back in Whitmire Stadium this week and that is the difference because CIT’s D gives them all they can handle.

WCU 24 - CIT 10



Of course, WCU played FU in Week 8 and Mercer in Week 9 … and Coach Sheridan taught FUBeAR well that the 1st required element in winning a Football game is EXPECTING to win a Football game…so…well…there’s that.

And…FUBeAR nailed the exact 14 point margin outcome with this Week 7 pick of the MountainKitties..btw.

Anyway…on another note…who knew The Cats had so much musical talent…


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiBe2_xvZRk

[ElCid]

Well lately I never pick my Dogs to win. Except I'm breaking my habit this week.

Dogs take Mocs 28-27.....

[Mocs123]

Dogs take Mocs 28-27.....

That's cold ElCid xlolx

[Mocs123]

I guess since it's been reported by the Chattanooga Times Free Press that it's public knowledge - Chase Artopeous is still out with a chest muscle injury and Luke Schomburg will start at quarterback. Unlike last week this was planned for all week and Luke got the QB1 snaps in practice.

[ElCid]

That's cold ElCid xlolx

I can't believe it's been 13 years since those games.

[Reign of Terrier]

Good one in Greenvile, with Wofford and Furman tied with about 5 minutes left in the first quarter.

Furman passing game is looking good, but the run game not so much. Wofford defense forced a turnover, but hasn’t played great third down defense. Odom really is a game changer on offense.

I’m feeling good about this one, not sure if Furman is built to throw it 50 times and win, and I think our tackling in space is going to improve over the course of the game.

[Reign of Terrier]

Also, not sure how the other Furman QB is doing health-wise, but Carson Jones is without a doubt QB1.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman’s having success on the delay draw when Wofford’s DL/linebackers are blitzing/overpursuing.

Wofford’s play-calling on the previous possession wasn’t great on third down. Or it wasn’t executed. I didn’t like a mid-range pass on 3rd and short.

[Reign of Terrier]

Furman is a little better than their record. I know that’s not much for me to say with Wofford sitting at 4-5, but if this Furman team finishes with <4 wins they are better than that. They’re definitely better than what they were a month ago.

[gofurman]

Furman’s having success on the delay draw when Wofford’s DL/linebackers are blitzing/overpursuing.

Wofford’s play-calling on the previous possession wasn’t great on third down. Or it wasn’t executed. I didn’t like a mid-range pass on 3rd and short.

typical for Furman

we fumble. Goes straight to Wofford. We CAUSE the Wofford defense guy to fumble… rolls out of bounds

then they call Furman for grounding ..it was. BUT as announcers agreed probably a missed FACEMASK on Wofford on same play. I swear. The fumble thing kills me. Both cause fumbles. Ours randomly recovered by yall. Y’all’s randomly rolls harmlessly out of bounds. Alll year long

also TONS of low snaps because we are having to have a guard play center - hurting so many plays for us. So you see what injuries do. We can’t SNAP a ball

LITERALLY WE CANT SNAP THE BALL. Furman will probably lose - I say Wofford 80% win chance. If we could snap the bal, it’s at least a 50 50 game. Every other play is either allowing defensive penetration or is off timing because of snaps being rolled on ground or very slow. We are literally rolling snaps on the ground. If we could just snap the ball ( good center instead of having to use guard). We might be leading at half. Longer drives. Convert 4th downs. Maybe 17-13 Furman or whatever.

goid thing is we all know CCH is a great coach. We will have some of this fixed by next year.

probably 6 win team next year. I hope. Lol

[kdinva]

Mercer 17, VMI 0, halftime. Twice Mercer hit on huge 3rd down conversions, led to both TDs.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford’s defensive player recovered the defensive fumble for what it’s worth.

Furman has been held to 10 yards of offense in the second quarter. Helps that’s Wofford’s offense has stayed on the field.

[gofurman]

appreciate the objectivity

effin LOW SNAPS. we can’t snap the ball from center to qb. Probably lost or messed up 9 plays minimum. We aren’t good enough to forfeit FIFTEEN PAYs a game !!!!!!!! No one is. Either kills or messes up timing of so many 0lays. Like announcer said if we snap better we probably convert that 4th down etc. Who knows what happens from that point forward

[Reign of Terrier]

Western goes down, and with it, their playoff hopes. ETSU just has to win out (something I think they can do) and they’ll be in the playoffs. Mercer just needs to win today and they’ll clinch the outright socon title.

[gofurman]

Wofford’s defensive player recovered the defensive fumble for what it’s worth.

Furman has been held to 10 yards of offense in the second quarter. Helps that’s Wofford’s offense has stayed on the field.


ok. But that’s kinda my point. Fumbles are somewhat luck in who recovers. At least somewhat. We fumble. Goes straight to Wofford. Yall fumble right back to another Wofford player. All year. We fumble. Pops to opponent. Others fumble. Goes back to them. Happened at VMI too. We made their defensive guy fumble. Popped right back to them

as a friend says. Some years all tipped balls fall harmlessly to ground. Some years they all go to INT

Speaking of which we were lucky - see just luck - to avoid yall making a pick on a tipped ball. Though on one our wr grabbed your db making him drop the ball. Oh well


and that post of Furman at 10 yards was a little early … good drive by us to end half

[Reign of Terrier]

At this point, we must contemplate: is Western Carolina cursed? They haven’t made the playoffs in like 40 years and on like 3 or 4 occasions in the last 10-15 years they were a win away from getting there.

[FUBeAR]

Western goes down, and with it, their playoff hopes. ETSU just has to win out (something I think they can do) and they’ll be in the playoffs. Mercer just needs to win today and they’ll clinch the outright socon title.
Nope.

Assuming the Bears hang on to their 27-0 4th quarter lead over VMI, they will only clinch A SHARE of the SoCon Championship. Still have to play Furman at Mercer, which could give Mercer 2 SoCon losses, this, potentially, sharing the title with ETSU and/or Chatt and/or WCU who all already have 2 losses, but could win the rest of their SoCon games. Because Mercer beat all 3 of the potential tied Teams, if Mercer hangs on they will clinch the SoCon Playoff AutoBod today.

[ETSUfan1]

Western goes down, and with it, their playoff hopes. ETSU just has to win out (something I think they can do) and they’ll be in the playoffs. Mercer just needs to win today and they’ll clinch the outright socon title.

The thing that worries me is ETSU played a non-D1 so we would have only seven FCS wins. That NDSU effort helps.

[Mocs123]

Nope.

Assuming the Bears hang on to their 27-0 4th quarter lead over VMI, they will only clinch A SHARE of the SoCon Championship. Still have to play Furman at Mercer, which could give Mercer 2 SoCon losses, this, potentially, sharing the title with ETSU and/or Chatt and/or WCU who all already have 2 losses, but could win the rest of their SoCon games. Because Mercer beat all 3 of the potential tied Teams, if Mercer hangs on they will clinch the SoCon Playoff AutoBod today.

Sorry FUBeAR, but Mercer won't lose to Furman - not with the Paladins with so many out.

[Mocs123]

What's going on in Homewood? Samford down by 20 to TTU?

[gofurman]

Sorry FUBeAR, but Mercer won't lose to Furman - not with the Paladins with so many out.

mercer has perennially struggled with Furman. But not this year

WE CANT SNAP THE BALL

Summary of two teams that don’t matter -
FURMAN
- cant get a clean SH-%-T MOFO snap from center to QB. The ESPN announcers were shocked. other center must be in doghouse. That’s a coach decision to just not switch centers. and for the 14 BAD SNAPS…. that’s like 1 and 1 free throws. Who knows what happens on the ensuing plays as those snaps ruin all those plays. Takes 2 yards off every run they happen etc. Mess up pass timing.
- stupid penalty to rough the Wofford QB. SO STUPID AND BLATANT. woulda been 16-13 Woffd. Instead gave them another shots at a TD. Became 19-13. They missed the extra pt. GAME CHANGER
- our DBs. Bless their hearts. Don’t deserve scholarships. Granted we lost two preseason and another at Citadel. And one transferred to Tulane. And one transferred to play for Colorado! So that’s FIVE DBs who had eligibility left we are out. We are playing DBs 6, 7, 8 and 9. Even with graduation these guys aren’t supposed to be on the field. And it shows. Wofford wisely threw the ball and either caught it or gets a defensive PI

Wofford
- good win. Congrats !!!
issues
- NEEDS A KICKER. missed an xp? Constant Kickoffs to our dangerous guy who returned one 94 yards for a TD this year. That’s BAD kicking. At Furman almost every kickoff goes in end zone. That is one thing we are outstanding at still. Unfortunately we don’t get to kickoff many times. Lol
- not a great pass defense at times. Even lowly Furman had some nice passes throughout the game. The Wofford DBs left holes that Furman exploited. Woff Pass rush was good and saved them. Furman OL is horrible !!! Furman can’t pass protect. Not great at run blocking either. Did I mention we can’t snap the ball to the QB?


good for Wofford. Congrats on win

good for Furman. All these guys will grow and age and our worst part - OL. CENTER. is Hendrix SPECIALTY. Coached it at Furman and Air Force !!! He KNOWS OL. Hendrix is a proven winner. Two god runs in playoffs last two years. Other playoff years prior. SoCon Champion. He will get em going.


***. I do agree with Reign of Terrier that maybe Jones should have been left in earlier in year. Basic thing is he has a higher floor than Hedden. Less mistakes. Hedden has a higher ceiling though. bigger arm etc. But at some point you can’t afford the mistakes

todays mistakes were Not the QB. BAD SNAPS. Rough passer. Fumble. One fumble isn’t bad honestly.


I had heard that Wofford was elite at creating turnovers. We have a porous OL and yet no INTs etc. Not quite sure I saw an elite turnover D. Of course, I saw Furman last year at PLUS SEVENTEEN or something. Freakish. I’m probably skewed.

regardless congrats. Is it basketball season? Lol

[OrangeAndBlack]

I'm ready for my apology for getting blasted for putting Furman as last place a couple weeks ago in the power ranks!

Great win for the Bears today! Left no room for the committee or anyone to talk smack.

Stay healthy at Alabama and take care of business with Furman!

[Reign of Terrier]

The thing that worries me is ETSU played a non-D1 so we would have only seven FCS wins. That NDSU effort helps.

Let not your heart be troubled! 8-4 with wins over Western and Wofford and single score losses to UTC, Mercer, and NDSU, with 7 D1 wins, the Bucs are IN. Just have to take care of business over your next 2.

[gofurman]

I'm ready for my apology for getting blasted for putting Furman as last place a couple weeks ago in the power ranks!

Great win for the Bears today! Left no room for the committee or anyone to talk smack.

Stay healthy at Alabama and take care of business with Furman!

It’s. A moot argument. But we stink.

But we beat Citadel AT citadel. Etc. Crushed VMI BUT LOST. True. Furman 2 wins. VMI one.

Sure they beat us head to head but we beat Citadel head to head. So if vmi goes in front of Furman by H2h logic…. by that logic Furman goes ahead of Citadel as H2H. SO ON H2H it’s Furman ahead of Citadel ahead of VMI. or a love triangle. Lol

if total body of work even Stetson counts as a win. Then Furman is 2 wins. VMI 1 win. Yet again Furman ahead of VMI.

Pointless anyway

what DOES have a point is Furman is the best SoCon football representative the past two years overall. That’s a fact. I wish Mercer the best in the playoffs as we should all be pulling for SoCon. Furman two years ago made second round. Last year quarterfinals (third round). Need someone to do that this year for our league !!!

[FUBeAR]

Seems the vector from the Cumberland Gap to Johnson City wasn’t the only misdirection present for ETSU fans on Saturday…

(Dude deleted his X post showing Hootie’s non-performance. So…edited to swap in this one. Sorry.)
https://twitter.com/davidongie/status/1855424275554947134

Jeez - even Craig Haley is posting about it.
https://twitter.com/craighaley/status/1855622907247923259
ETSU wins a huge game and peeps are bwah-ha-ha-ha’ing about the stupidity of doing this and/or how ETSU misled people. FUBeAR feels bad for Coach Lamb and for the ETSU Fans and Admin’s that don’t spend almost all of their time thinking and talking about how ETSU ‘deserves’ to be some ‘somewhere else’ that is just ‘so much better than the SoCon.’ Maybe, FULLY BE where your feet are and where you have been ‘planted’ for a little while sometime. Just sayin’

[Reign of Terrier]

Darius Rucker was probably on his way to see the Gamecocks play Vandy.

Also, how often does a rivalry game have the exact same score 2 years straight - Wofford beating Furman 19-13?

[FUBeAR]

Darius Rucker was probably on his way to see the Gamecocks play Vandy.

Also, how often does a rivalry game have the exact same score 2 years straight - Wofford beating Furman 19-13?
not a rivalry

[Reign of Terrier]

not a rivalry

^^^okay boomer

[FUBeAR]

^^^okay boomer
OK
https://starswife.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Boomer-Esiason-Wife.webp

[Reign of Terrier]

i said boomer not gooner!



(and yes I know that’s boomer)

[FUBeAR]

i said boomer not gooner!

(and yes I know that’s boomer)
You don’t KNOW that.

In the past decade, FUBeAR’s IRL persona has been stopped multiple times in airports by travelers seeking an autograph while they were calling out, “Boomer!”

[FUBeAR]

HOT TAKE2: Dickens was SORE, without a doubt, on Sunday. Coach Bell must have a great deal of confidence in HIS backup. ETSU’s smaller, quicker, and a bit more athletic Defenders won’t whiff on him as often as Chatt’s, who had no video on him, did. They’ll still whiff some because he’s, indeed, a slippery customer. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Coach Lamb put a “Spy” on him - maybe a rangy, athletic Player like #21 LB, Ray Coney. Mercer did that, with some success, on WCU’s QB, Tyrie Adams, during Coach Lamb’s tenure at Mercer. This will be interesting to watch.
Coach Lamb is an avid FUBeAR Follower…
https://twitter.com/fcsnationradio1/status/1856771146848289031