Professor Chaos
November 3rd, 2024, 11:45 AM
We're now 3 weeks away from Selection Sunday and we're starting to see the herd of teams in playoff contention thinned but I've still got 33 teams amongst 8 conferences vying for 21 available spots (the other 3 are autos from one-bid leagues) so there's still a lot to be decided. To get a handle on it I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/fcs/ratings and clicking on each team there gives the details I'm using below. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining games I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).
Big Sky
Not much changed in the Big Sky from last week. Montana St locked themselves into the field and UC Davis put themselves on the precipice needing only 1 win in their last 3 to lock themselves in and they may sneak in even if they lose their final 3. Montana is looking pretty solid but they've got 2 tough ones in their last 3 although they could probably drop both and still make it in if they beat PSU. Idaho is probably in good shape being favored in each of their final 3 and only needing to win 2 of them to get in. NAU took care of the toughest of their remaining games (by Massey's estimation) taking down Weber St yesterday meaning they're heavy favorites to win out and that would definitely put them in consideration but they'd be at the mercy of the bubble with a D2 win and no notable wins (but they would have respectable losses). It looks like the Big Sky will get at least 4 bids with a shot at 5 and could have as many as 4 in the top 16.
Locks
Montana St 9-0 (5-0) [2.12/0.88] - Sac St (80%), @UC Davis (66%), Montana (65%)
Trending towards in
UC Davis 8-1 (5-0) [1.21/1.79] - @Montana (33%), Montana St (34%), @Sac St (54%)
Work left to do
Montana 7-2 (4-1) [1.86/1.14] - UC Davis (67%), Portland St (83%), @Montana St (35%)
Idaho 6-3 (3-2) [2.13/0.87] - @Portland St (72%), Weber St (67%), @Idaho St (74%)
Must win out
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-2) [2.43/0.57] - @Cal Poly (88%), @UNC (93%), EWU (62%)
CAA
The herd of CAA teams thinned a bit as 3 teams dropped off the list but there's still 7 playoff contenders. Rhode Island is one win away from locking in their spot and a win over Delaware might put them in line for a top 8 seed and a first round bye. Richmond and Villanova are both favored in each of their final 3 although each have some coin flip games going by the Massey odds - I think Richmond is in a slightly better spot but both are likely in if they can win at least 1 and should be locked in if they can win 2 more. Stony Brook keeps piling up wins but the rubber meets the road now as Massey has them as an underdog in each of their final 3 and they'll need to win at least one, maybe two, to get themselves in. William and Mary needs to win their next 2 or put themselves in a real tough spot needing to win their season finale @Richmond and even at 8-4 I think they'd be pretty sketchy but the bubble is looking fairly weak. Of the two teams that need to win out UNH is in a much better spot using Massey's odds but they'll need to start by winning a coin flip against Monmouth next week. The floor for the CAA is 3 bids but could be as many as 6 so it'll probably be somewhere in between - there's still a lot to be determined in terms of how many CAA teams can make it into the top 8 or the top 16 as well.
Trending towards in
Rhode Island 8-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - @Delaware (25%), Albany (65%), @Bryant (79%)
Richmond 7-2 (5-0) [2.09/0.91] - @Campbell (78%), @Hampton (73%), W&M (58%)
Work left to do
Villanova 7-2 (4-1) [2.10/0.90] - NC A&T (99%), @Monmouth (56%), Delaware (56%)
Stony Brook 7-2 (4-1) [1.04/1.96] - Albany (45%), @UNH (21%), Monmouth (38%)
William & Mary 6-3 (3-2) [1.99/1.01] - Elon (68%), Bryant (90%), @Richmond (42%)
Must win out
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-2) [1.94/1.06] - Monmouth (55%), SBU (79%), @Maine (60%)
Hampton 5-4 (2-3) [0.92/2.08] - @Towson (33%), Richmond (27%), @Albany (31%)
MVFC
NDSU locked in their playoff spot today and SDSU looks to be following fairly soon in locking themselves in. USD needs to win 2 of their final 3 to lock in which is very doable but if they drop their penultimate regular season game @UND having to beat NDSU in the final week to get there would be a tough out. I think Illinois St needs to win out to lock in as they'd be pretty shaky at 8-4 (assuming they take a season ending loss to UND as Massey projects). UND took their 2nd straight stunning loss to put their playoff hopes on life support as they've got SDSU and USD at home the next two weeks and follow that up with a road trip to Illinois St needing to win all 3 to get in - they'd be an interesting case study at 7-5 because they'd need to get a couple of very impressive wins to get there but that seems unlikely to happen so it's not worth discussing it much yet. It's possible the MVFC could only have 3 playoff teams but 4 is still a possibility and 5 seems pretty much out of the question although they could end up getting 2 of the top 3 seeds though and perhaps 3 in the top 8 since NDSU, SDSU, and USD were all in the top 4 of the committee's top 10 released earlier this week. One note out of left field is Indiana St - if they can pull a stunner @USD next week they'd have a real shot at finishing 7-5 on a 5 game winning streak and could come out of nowhere to steal a bid.
Locks
NDSU 9-1 (6-0) [1.55/0.45] - Missouri St (87%), @USD (68%)
Trending towards in
SDSU 7-2 (4-1) [2.68/0.32] - @UND (85%), SIU (99%), @Missouri St (84%)
USD 6-2 (4-1) [1.93/1.07] - Indiana St (>99%), @UND (62%), NDSU (32%)
Work left do to
Illinois St 6-3 (3-2) [1.73/1.27] - @UNI (52%), @Indiana St (81%), UND (39%)
Must win out
UND 5-4 (2-3) [1.14/1.86] - SDSU (15%), USD (38%), @Illinois St (61%)
SOCON
Mercer is looking very good after a big win over ETSU needing only a win @VMI next week to lock themselves in. But WCU's win over Chattanooga threw the rest of the league into an all-out brawl to try to get to Selection Sunday with less than 5 losses with no margin for error left for Chattanooga and ETSU as they join WCU in the group that needs to win out. UTC probably has the best Massey odds to do that as ETSU and WCU play a coin flip game next week with the loser being eliminated and WCU has another coin flip game (according to Massey) at Samford to end the season. I do think Mercer's seed window took a slight hit with Chattanooga's loss yesterday but they're likely still a top 8 seed if they can finish 9-2 - that might be it for SOCON teams in the top 16 though as 2-3 bids is their ceiling and those last 1-2 teams will probably be amongst the bottom 8 if they make it into the playoffs.
Trending towards in
Mercer 8-1 (5-1) [1.71/1.29] - @VMI (93%), @Bama (<1%), Furman (77%)
Must win out
Chattanooga 5-4 (4-2) [2.24/0.76] - @Citadel (88%), Samford (74%), @APSU (62%)
East Tennessee St 5-4 (3-2) [2.06/0.94] - WCU (52%), Furman (66%), @VMI (87%)
Western Carolina 5-4 (4-1) [1.90/1.10] - @ETSU (48%), VMI (91%), @Samford (51%)
UAC
It was pandemonium in the UAC yesterday with both Tarleton and UCA taking surprising losses (UCA especially losing to previously winless Utah Tech in a game Massey gave them a 90% chance to win). That means the chances the league gets an at-large took a hit and their chance for multiple at-larges likely goes out the window entirely. Tarleton goes from trending towards in to needing to get back on track for the playoffs after their loss to EKU since they have both ACU and UCA on the schedule still. ACU has 3 coin flip games left and needs to win all 3 to lock themselves in - winning 2 may be enough (and could even get them the autobid) but it depends on which two they win and how much help they get. UCA still needs to play @EKU and Tarleton so they've got to get the ship righted in a hurry or they'll be out of the playoff picture as well now that they've got that anchor of a loss to Utah Tech weighing them down when it comes to at-large consideration. EKU stays on this list for one more week but it seems unlikely they can keep the magic going. The UAC may not be able to get any teams into the top 8 seeds when it's all said and done but there's still a lot to be decided here in the final 3 weeks.
Work left to do
Tarleton St 7-2 (4-1) [1.73/1.27] - @UWG (73%), ACU (52%), UCA (48%)
Abilene Christian 6-3 (5-1) [1.45/1.55] - @APSU (52%), @Tarleton (48%), @SFA (45%)
Central Arkansas 6-3 (3-2) [1.72/1.28] - @EKU (59%), SUU (61%), @Tarleton (52%)
Must win out
Eastern Kentucky 5-4 (2-2) [1.47/1.53] - UCA (41%), @APSU (40%), UNA (66%)
OVC/Big South
Nothing changed for SEMO as they were idle and look to be speeding towards an undefeated against the FCS 11-1 regular season and perhaps a top 4 seed. UTM's win over Tennessee St didn't change much in the outlook for the conference as UTM still is in a good spot as heavy favorites in their final 3 and winning out should lock them in. Tennessee St still has a tough road as Massey sees them as a slight favorite against WIU next week but heavy underdogs in their final two @G-W and vs SEMO so they may be in trouble. It does seem like the OVC gets an at-large this year but if UTM takes an ugly loss it could still be just a one-bid league.
Trending towards in
Southeast Missouri St 8-1 (5-0) [2.51/0.49] - @Lindenwood (83%), WIU (86%), @TSU (81%)
Work left to do
UT Martin 6-3 (4-1) [2.66/0.34] - @CSU (92%), TTU (84%), Lindenwood (89%)
Tennessee St 6-3 (3-2) [1.03/1.97] - @WIU (56%), @G-W (29%), SEMO (19%)
Southland
Incarnate Word is in good shape needing to win 2 of their final 3 to get in which is very doable but winning out probably gets them a top 8 seed and a first round bye. SFA gets one more gimme against TAMU-CC but after that things get tough as they close out the season against conference leader UIW and with a very intriguing final week OOC matchup with ACU which could turn into a playoff game in it's own right. Lamar is on their last legs and doesn't seem to be like they'll be in the playoff conversation much longer. SLU is going to be an interesting team if they finish 7-5 - their win over SFA is looking better and better and their schedule has been brutal as their losses so far are to 2 FBS teams, SDSU, UIW, and Tarleton so they'd be a pretty good looking 7-5 team with how soft the bubble is looking this year. It's still possible the SLC only gets the autobid but they still could get as many as 2 at-large bids.
Trending towards in
Incarnate Word 7-2 (4-0) [2.30/0.70] - Lamar (87%), @SFA (52%), @TAMU-CC (91%)
Work left to do
Stephen F Austin 6-3 (4-2) [1.92/1.08] - @TAMU-CC (90%), UIW (48%), ACU (55%)
Must win out
Lamar 5-4 (2-2) [0.85/2.15] - @UIW (13%), Nicholls (36%), @McNeese (36%)
SE Louisiana 5-5 (4-1) [1.42/0.58] - NWSU (97%), @Nicholls (45%)
Others
I added NC Central to this list as their loss to SCSU drops them out of the lead position for the MEAC's spot in the Celebration Bowl. I don't think they'll have much of a shot at an at-large bid though as they only have 11 games scheduled with one of those being a sub-D1 game so they can only get to 8-3 (7-3 vs D1 opponents). They also have an ugly loss to Elon who has long bowed out of playoff contention in the CAA which will likely hurt them. The other 3 autobid leagues - the NEC, Patriot, and Pioneer - are all almost certainly just one bid leagues this year.
Must win out
NC Central 6-3 (2-1) [1.75/0.25] - Howard (84%), @DSU (91%)
The Field
So there's 14 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the final 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists include the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Montana St (12-0), Montana (9-3), UC Davis (9-3), Idaho (9-3), NAU (8-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (10-2), Rhode Island (10-2), Villanova (10-2), UNH (8-4)
MVFC: 3 - NDSU (11-1), SDSU (10-2), USD (8-3), Illinois St (8-4)
SOCON: 2 - Mercer (10-2), Chattanooga (8-4), ETSU (8-4)
UAC: 1 - UCA (9-3), Tarleton (9-3)
OVC/Big South: 1 - SEMO (11-1), UTM (9-3)
SLC: 0 - UIW (10-2)
The other 3 autos:
Patriot: Holy Cross (7-5)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
Pioneer: Drake (9-1)
The seeds (there's 16 now... woo-hoo!)
1. NDSU (11-1)
2. Montana St (12-0)
3. SDSU (10-2)
4. SEMO (11-1)
5. UIW (10-2)
6. Mercer (10-2)
7. USD (8-3)
8. Richmond (10-2)
9. Montana (9-3)
10. UC Davis (9-3)
11. Idaho (9-3)
12. Rhode Island (10-2)
13. Villanova (10-2)
14. UCA (9-3)
15. UTM (9-3)
16. Tarleton (9-3)
Last 4 in: Chattanooga (8-4), ETSU (8-4), Illinois St (8-4), NAU (8-4)
First 4 out: SFA (8-4), William & Mary (8-4), ACU (7-5), WCU (7-5)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: NC Central (8-3), Stony Brook (7-5), TSU (7-5), SLU(6-6), UND (6-6), EKU (6-6), Hampton (5-7), Lamar (5-7)
The bubble tightened a bit with NAU and UNH entering the picture at a projected 8-4 (although UND exited it) - that bumped out two 8-win teams mentioned above in SFA and W&M. I'm not sure how the UAC auto would play out in this scenario since, if the Massey projections hold, there would be a 3 way tie for the conference title between ACU, Tarleton, and UCA. The seeds are a mess after about #5 as I was trying to take into consideration some of the future games with the Massey projected winner and loser moving up/down accordingly (if it plays out like this - which it very likely won't). I gave a projected 8-3 USD a healthy bump up since the playoff selection committee had them at #4 in their recently released top 10 and I can't imagine that a projected loss to #1 seed NDSU would bump them down much. I had a hard time with Idaho - since they were ranked #7 in the committee's top 10 and I have them seeded at #11 even though they're projected to win out from here but UC Davis being projected to lose to both Montana schools made me bump Idaho down accordingly due to their head-to-head loss to UC Davis and their equal records.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.
Big Sky
Not much changed in the Big Sky from last week. Montana St locked themselves into the field and UC Davis put themselves on the precipice needing only 1 win in their last 3 to lock themselves in and they may sneak in even if they lose their final 3. Montana is looking pretty solid but they've got 2 tough ones in their last 3 although they could probably drop both and still make it in if they beat PSU. Idaho is probably in good shape being favored in each of their final 3 and only needing to win 2 of them to get in. NAU took care of the toughest of their remaining games (by Massey's estimation) taking down Weber St yesterday meaning they're heavy favorites to win out and that would definitely put them in consideration but they'd be at the mercy of the bubble with a D2 win and no notable wins (but they would have respectable losses). It looks like the Big Sky will get at least 4 bids with a shot at 5 and could have as many as 4 in the top 16.
Locks
Montana St 9-0 (5-0) [2.12/0.88] - Sac St (80%), @UC Davis (66%), Montana (65%)
Trending towards in
UC Davis 8-1 (5-0) [1.21/1.79] - @Montana (33%), Montana St (34%), @Sac St (54%)
Work left to do
Montana 7-2 (4-1) [1.86/1.14] - UC Davis (67%), Portland St (83%), @Montana St (35%)
Idaho 6-3 (3-2) [2.13/0.87] - @Portland St (72%), Weber St (67%), @Idaho St (74%)
Must win out
Northern Arizona 5-4 (3-2) [2.43/0.57] - @Cal Poly (88%), @UNC (93%), EWU (62%)
CAA
The herd of CAA teams thinned a bit as 3 teams dropped off the list but there's still 7 playoff contenders. Rhode Island is one win away from locking in their spot and a win over Delaware might put them in line for a top 8 seed and a first round bye. Richmond and Villanova are both favored in each of their final 3 although each have some coin flip games going by the Massey odds - I think Richmond is in a slightly better spot but both are likely in if they can win at least 1 and should be locked in if they can win 2 more. Stony Brook keeps piling up wins but the rubber meets the road now as Massey has them as an underdog in each of their final 3 and they'll need to win at least one, maybe two, to get themselves in. William and Mary needs to win their next 2 or put themselves in a real tough spot needing to win their season finale @Richmond and even at 8-4 I think they'd be pretty sketchy but the bubble is looking fairly weak. Of the two teams that need to win out UNH is in a much better spot using Massey's odds but they'll need to start by winning a coin flip against Monmouth next week. The floor for the CAA is 3 bids but could be as many as 6 so it'll probably be somewhere in between - there's still a lot to be determined in terms of how many CAA teams can make it into the top 8 or the top 16 as well.
Trending towards in
Rhode Island 8-1 (5-0) [1.69/1.31] - @Delaware (25%), Albany (65%), @Bryant (79%)
Richmond 7-2 (5-0) [2.09/0.91] - @Campbell (78%), @Hampton (73%), W&M (58%)
Work left to do
Villanova 7-2 (4-1) [2.10/0.90] - NC A&T (99%), @Monmouth (56%), Delaware (56%)
Stony Brook 7-2 (4-1) [1.04/1.96] - Albany (45%), @UNH (21%), Monmouth (38%)
William & Mary 6-3 (3-2) [1.99/1.01] - Elon (68%), Bryant (90%), @Richmond (42%)
Must win out
New Hampshire 5-4 (3-2) [1.94/1.06] - Monmouth (55%), SBU (79%), @Maine (60%)
Hampton 5-4 (2-3) [0.92/2.08] - @Towson (33%), Richmond (27%), @Albany (31%)
MVFC
NDSU locked in their playoff spot today and SDSU looks to be following fairly soon in locking themselves in. USD needs to win 2 of their final 3 to lock in which is very doable but if they drop their penultimate regular season game @UND having to beat NDSU in the final week to get there would be a tough out. I think Illinois St needs to win out to lock in as they'd be pretty shaky at 8-4 (assuming they take a season ending loss to UND as Massey projects). UND took their 2nd straight stunning loss to put their playoff hopes on life support as they've got SDSU and USD at home the next two weeks and follow that up with a road trip to Illinois St needing to win all 3 to get in - they'd be an interesting case study at 7-5 because they'd need to get a couple of very impressive wins to get there but that seems unlikely to happen so it's not worth discussing it much yet. It's possible the MVFC could only have 3 playoff teams but 4 is still a possibility and 5 seems pretty much out of the question although they could end up getting 2 of the top 3 seeds though and perhaps 3 in the top 8 since NDSU, SDSU, and USD were all in the top 4 of the committee's top 10 released earlier this week. One note out of left field is Indiana St - if they can pull a stunner @USD next week they'd have a real shot at finishing 7-5 on a 5 game winning streak and could come out of nowhere to steal a bid.
Locks
NDSU 9-1 (6-0) [1.55/0.45] - Missouri St (87%), @USD (68%)
Trending towards in
SDSU 7-2 (4-1) [2.68/0.32] - @UND (85%), SIU (99%), @Missouri St (84%)
USD 6-2 (4-1) [1.93/1.07] - Indiana St (>99%), @UND (62%), NDSU (32%)
Work left do to
Illinois St 6-3 (3-2) [1.73/1.27] - @UNI (52%), @Indiana St (81%), UND (39%)
Must win out
UND 5-4 (2-3) [1.14/1.86] - SDSU (15%), USD (38%), @Illinois St (61%)
SOCON
Mercer is looking very good after a big win over ETSU needing only a win @VMI next week to lock themselves in. But WCU's win over Chattanooga threw the rest of the league into an all-out brawl to try to get to Selection Sunday with less than 5 losses with no margin for error left for Chattanooga and ETSU as they join WCU in the group that needs to win out. UTC probably has the best Massey odds to do that as ETSU and WCU play a coin flip game next week with the loser being eliminated and WCU has another coin flip game (according to Massey) at Samford to end the season. I do think Mercer's seed window took a slight hit with Chattanooga's loss yesterday but they're likely still a top 8 seed if they can finish 9-2 - that might be it for SOCON teams in the top 16 though as 2-3 bids is their ceiling and those last 1-2 teams will probably be amongst the bottom 8 if they make it into the playoffs.
Trending towards in
Mercer 8-1 (5-1) [1.71/1.29] - @VMI (93%), @Bama (<1%), Furman (77%)
Must win out
Chattanooga 5-4 (4-2) [2.24/0.76] - @Citadel (88%), Samford (74%), @APSU (62%)
East Tennessee St 5-4 (3-2) [2.06/0.94] - WCU (52%), Furman (66%), @VMI (87%)
Western Carolina 5-4 (4-1) [1.90/1.10] - @ETSU (48%), VMI (91%), @Samford (51%)
UAC
It was pandemonium in the UAC yesterday with both Tarleton and UCA taking surprising losses (UCA especially losing to previously winless Utah Tech in a game Massey gave them a 90% chance to win). That means the chances the league gets an at-large took a hit and their chance for multiple at-larges likely goes out the window entirely. Tarleton goes from trending towards in to needing to get back on track for the playoffs after their loss to EKU since they have both ACU and UCA on the schedule still. ACU has 3 coin flip games left and needs to win all 3 to lock themselves in - winning 2 may be enough (and could even get them the autobid) but it depends on which two they win and how much help they get. UCA still needs to play @EKU and Tarleton so they've got to get the ship righted in a hurry or they'll be out of the playoff picture as well now that they've got that anchor of a loss to Utah Tech weighing them down when it comes to at-large consideration. EKU stays on this list for one more week but it seems unlikely they can keep the magic going. The UAC may not be able to get any teams into the top 8 seeds when it's all said and done but there's still a lot to be decided here in the final 3 weeks.
Work left to do
Tarleton St 7-2 (4-1) [1.73/1.27] - @UWG (73%), ACU (52%), UCA (48%)
Abilene Christian 6-3 (5-1) [1.45/1.55] - @APSU (52%), @Tarleton (48%), @SFA (45%)
Central Arkansas 6-3 (3-2) [1.72/1.28] - @EKU (59%), SUU (61%), @Tarleton (52%)
Must win out
Eastern Kentucky 5-4 (2-2) [1.47/1.53] - UCA (41%), @APSU (40%), UNA (66%)
OVC/Big South
Nothing changed for SEMO as they were idle and look to be speeding towards an undefeated against the FCS 11-1 regular season and perhaps a top 4 seed. UTM's win over Tennessee St didn't change much in the outlook for the conference as UTM still is in a good spot as heavy favorites in their final 3 and winning out should lock them in. Tennessee St still has a tough road as Massey sees them as a slight favorite against WIU next week but heavy underdogs in their final two @G-W and vs SEMO so they may be in trouble. It does seem like the OVC gets an at-large this year but if UTM takes an ugly loss it could still be just a one-bid league.
Trending towards in
Southeast Missouri St 8-1 (5-0) [2.51/0.49] - @Lindenwood (83%), WIU (86%), @TSU (81%)
Work left to do
UT Martin 6-3 (4-1) [2.66/0.34] - @CSU (92%), TTU (84%), Lindenwood (89%)
Tennessee St 6-3 (3-2) [1.03/1.97] - @WIU (56%), @G-W (29%), SEMO (19%)
Southland
Incarnate Word is in good shape needing to win 2 of their final 3 to get in which is very doable but winning out probably gets them a top 8 seed and a first round bye. SFA gets one more gimme against TAMU-CC but after that things get tough as they close out the season against conference leader UIW and with a very intriguing final week OOC matchup with ACU which could turn into a playoff game in it's own right. Lamar is on their last legs and doesn't seem to be like they'll be in the playoff conversation much longer. SLU is going to be an interesting team if they finish 7-5 - their win over SFA is looking better and better and their schedule has been brutal as their losses so far are to 2 FBS teams, SDSU, UIW, and Tarleton so they'd be a pretty good looking 7-5 team with how soft the bubble is looking this year. It's still possible the SLC only gets the autobid but they still could get as many as 2 at-large bids.
Trending towards in
Incarnate Word 7-2 (4-0) [2.30/0.70] - Lamar (87%), @SFA (52%), @TAMU-CC (91%)
Work left to do
Stephen F Austin 6-3 (4-2) [1.92/1.08] - @TAMU-CC (90%), UIW (48%), ACU (55%)
Must win out
Lamar 5-4 (2-2) [0.85/2.15] - @UIW (13%), Nicholls (36%), @McNeese (36%)
SE Louisiana 5-5 (4-1) [1.42/0.58] - NWSU (97%), @Nicholls (45%)
Others
I added NC Central to this list as their loss to SCSU drops them out of the lead position for the MEAC's spot in the Celebration Bowl. I don't think they'll have much of a shot at an at-large bid though as they only have 11 games scheduled with one of those being a sub-D1 game so they can only get to 8-3 (7-3 vs D1 opponents). They also have an ugly loss to Elon who has long bowed out of playoff contention in the CAA which will likely hurt them. The other 3 autobid leagues - the NEC, Patriot, and Pioneer - are all almost certainly just one bid leagues this year.
Must win out
NC Central 6-3 (2-1) [1.75/0.25] - Howard (84%), @DSU (91%)
The Field
So there's 14 at-large available - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the final 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists include the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 4 - Montana St (12-0), Montana (9-3), UC Davis (9-3), Idaho (9-3), NAU (8-4)
CAA: 3 - Richmond (10-2), Rhode Island (10-2), Villanova (10-2), UNH (8-4)
MVFC: 3 - NDSU (11-1), SDSU (10-2), USD (8-3), Illinois St (8-4)
SOCON: 2 - Mercer (10-2), Chattanooga (8-4), ETSU (8-4)
UAC: 1 - UCA (9-3), Tarleton (9-3)
OVC/Big South: 1 - SEMO (11-1), UTM (9-3)
SLC: 0 - UIW (10-2)
The other 3 autos:
Patriot: Holy Cross (7-5)
NEC: Duquesne (9-2)
Pioneer: Drake (9-1)
The seeds (there's 16 now... woo-hoo!)
1. NDSU (11-1)
2. Montana St (12-0)
3. SDSU (10-2)
4. SEMO (11-1)
5. UIW (10-2)
6. Mercer (10-2)
7. USD (8-3)
8. Richmond (10-2)
9. Montana (9-3)
10. UC Davis (9-3)
11. Idaho (9-3)
12. Rhode Island (10-2)
13. Villanova (10-2)
14. UCA (9-3)
15. UTM (9-3)
16. Tarleton (9-3)
Last 4 in: Chattanooga (8-4), ETSU (8-4), Illinois St (8-4), NAU (8-4)
First 4 out: SFA (8-4), William & Mary (8-4), ACU (7-5), WCU (7-5)
Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: NC Central (8-3), Stony Brook (7-5), TSU (7-5), SLU(6-6), UND (6-6), EKU (6-6), Hampton (5-7), Lamar (5-7)
The bubble tightened a bit with NAU and UNH entering the picture at a projected 8-4 (although UND exited it) - that bumped out two 8-win teams mentioned above in SFA and W&M. I'm not sure how the UAC auto would play out in this scenario since, if the Massey projections hold, there would be a 3 way tie for the conference title between ACU, Tarleton, and UCA. The seeds are a mess after about #5 as I was trying to take into consideration some of the future games with the Massey projected winner and loser moving up/down accordingly (if it plays out like this - which it very likely won't). I gave a projected 8-3 USD a healthy bump up since the playoff selection committee had them at #4 in their recently released top 10 and I can't imagine that a projected loss to #1 seed NDSU would bump them down much. I had a hard time with Idaho - since they were ranked #7 in the committee's top 10 and I have them seeded at #11 even though they're projected to win out from here but UC Davis being projected to lose to both Montana schools made me bump Idaho down accordingly due to their head-to-head loss to UC Davis and their equal records.
What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.