FCS Wedge Bracketology

[MTfan4life]

So, I have quite the monologue about this on the FCS Wedge, but I have created a bracket based on a few human polls and computer polls. So what I do is I take both my poll and kalm's poll. Then I take the AGS Poll, the Massey ratings, and two more computer rating systems. I combine them altogether with teams getting points for where they are ranked in each one. I've been doing this all season, but Kris suggested I start posting them here. Once I get the top 16, I put together the rest of the bracket on regionalization and also avoiding rematches in the first round. So here's what I have this week:




1. NDSU


16. Tennessee-Martin



Illinois State







9. Montana



Drake




8. Idaho







4. South Dakota


13. Mercer



Richmond







12. Rhode Island



Villanova




5. UC Davis







2. Montana State


15. Chattanooga



Duquesne







10. Incarnate Word



Abilene Christian




7. Tarleton State







3. SDSU


14. Central Arkansas



ETSU







11. North Dakota



Holy Cross




6. SEMO



Once I had the top 16 teams, I had three separate bus trips. Rhode Island already played Holy Cross, but they won't play Villanova, so that sets up for that matchup. Abilene and Incarnate are a very likely matchup if one is seeded 9-16 with being in-state but not the same conference. Then Tennessee-Martin and ISU-r are within 400 miles. After that, I went semi regional for most of them and just was left with Holy Cross going to UND. And this bracket is if the season ended right now. Montana State, Montana, and UC-Davis all have to play each other in the remaining slate, just to name one example of things still to shake out.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just to have a little fun with this:

1. Used Professor Chaos' playoff prognostication for the teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367849-2024-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication)
2. Used Committee's anointed tools (KPI and Massey) to average out the ranking of the playoff teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367966-Playoffs-odds-and-ends).
3. Seeded them 1-24 (done by averaging KPI and Massey rankings).
4. Filled in bracket (only had to switch Tennessee-Martin and Richmond, due to Tennessee-Martin being matched up with Southeast Missouri State in the 1st round; they were switched keep them on same side of bracket).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ygsxAp7NK0teMZqh72lFNuui0rGHlp2s/view?usp=sharing

Enjoy!

[rhowdyram]

Just to have a little fun with this:

1. Used Professor Chaos' playoff prognostication for the teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367849-2024-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication)
2. Used Committee's anointed tools (KPI and Massey) to average out the ranking of the playoff teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367966-Playoffs-odds-and-ends).
3. Seeded them 1-24 (done by averaging KPI and Massey rankings).
4. Filled in bracket (only had to switch Tennessee-Martin and Richmond, due to Tennessee-Martin being matched up with Southeast Missouri State in the 1st round; they were switched keep them on same side of bracket).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ygsxAp7NK0teMZqh72lFNuui0rGHlp2s/view?usp=sharing

Enjoy!

I'm really not trying to get ahead of myself, certainly not before we hit 9 wins, but I'd just point out that 12/7 would be an absolutely crazy day in Kingston if URI can get a top 8 seed. It would be our first playoff game since 1985 AND the rat bastard Providence College Friars would be coming to town for our annual basketball rivalry game.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I'm really not trying to get ahead of myself, certainly not before we hit 9 wins, but I'd just point out that 12/7 would be an absolutely crazy day in Kingston if URI can get a top 8 seed. It would be our first playoff game since 1985 AND the rat bastard Providence College Friars would be coming to town for our annual basketball rivalry game.
That sounds like it would be quite the day!

[uofmman1122]

Just to have a little fun with this:

1. Used Professor Chaos' playoff prognostication for the teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367849-2024-Week-9-Playoff-Prognostication)
2. Used Committee's anointed tools (KPI and Massey) to average out the ranking of the playoff teams (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?367966-Playoffs-odds-and-ends).
3. Seeded them 1-24 (done by averaging KPI and Massey rankings).
4. Filled in bracket (only had to switch Tennessee-Martin and Richmond, due to Tennessee-Martin being matched up with Southeast Missouri State in the 1st round; they were switched keep them on same side of bracket).

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ygsxAp7NK0teMZqh72lFNuui0rGHlp2s/view?usp=sharing

Enjoy!
I just don't see how a 9-3 Montana team gets the #4 seed assuming we lose to bozeman, but I've been surprised on selection sunday before!

[Preferred Walk-On]

I just don't see how a 9-3 Montana team gets the #4 seed assuming we lose to bozeman, but I've been surprised on selection sunday before!

That was Massey and KPI averaged, or as FUBeAR would say…science. Yes, #4 is perhaps a stretch, but ball out AND win the Brawl, and…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lucchesicourt]

It's UM

[Preferred Walk-On]

It's UM

Defending National Runner-Up UM…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MUHAWKS]

I'm really not trying to get ahead of myself, certainly not before we hit 9 wins, but I'd just point out that 12/7 would be an absolutely crazy day in Kingston if URI can get a top 8 seed. It would be our first playoff game since 1985 AND the rat bastard Providence College Friars would be coming to town for our annual basketball rivalry game.


If we lose to you- I will be rooting for that to happen- I really like Fleming- Not 100% sold on him as a coach, I am more neutral there and have not seen enough to know, but personally the guy is very likeable. My take at least.

[Chalupa Batman]

This seemed like as good a place as any to post the FCS selection committee top 10 if the season were to end today:





North Dakota State
Montana State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
UC Davis
Southeast Missouri State
Idaho
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Montana

[FUBeAR]

This seemed like as good a place as any to post the FCS selection committee top 10 if the season were to end today:





North Dakota State
Montana State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
UC Davis
Southeast Missouri State
Idaho
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Montana


Just to get these 2 Rankings in a single post…

AGS Poll Results 2024 Week 9


10/28/2024



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
North Dakota State Bison
1128
24


2
Montana State Bobcats
1122
22


3
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1055



4
UC Davis Aggies
985



5
South Dakota Coyotes
976



6
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
904



7
Incarnate Word Cardinals
795



8
Idaho Vandals
756



9
Tarleton Texans
714



10
Montana Grizzlies
695



11
Mercer Bears
661



Aggies & Yotes swap,
Cards drop 2,
And Texans are replaced by Bears

[Professor Chaos]

This seemed like as good a place as any to post the FCS selection committee top 10 if the season were to end today:





North Dakota State
Montana State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
UC Davis
Southeast Missouri State
Idaho
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Montana

The committee likes Mercer more and Tarleton less than the 'puters and other polls do - the rest are all pretty close.

[FUBeAR]

The committee likes Mercer more and Tarleton less than the 'puters and other polls do - the rest are all pretty close.
If Mercer beats ETSU, VMI, and Furman, how much do you think the Bears will need to beat Alabama by in order to keep Montana from jumping them for the #8 Seed?

[Preferred Walk-On]

The committee likes Mercer more and Tarleton less than the 'puters and other polls do - the rest are all pretty close.
Committee Members:

Southern Conference
Chattanooga AD Mark Wharton
Term Expiration: Aug. 2026

Reminder: Chattanooga was beaten by Mercer much earlier this season. Not implying any nefarious activity, just perhaps a little member input that suggests that the Bears have a place in this 10 (and seed, no less). I can't argue against it.

[Preferred Walk-On]

If Mercer beats ETSU, VMI, and Furman, how much do you think the Bears will need to beat Alabama by in order to keep Montana from jumping them for the #8 Seed?
Probably by more than Vanderbilt beat Alabama...and that is just to make sure they are higher than Chattanooga. ;)

Samford>Mercer>Chattanooga>Georgia State>Vanderbilt>Alabama?

It might help you if Western Carolina loses to Samford, just to solidify that Mercer > Montana comparison. Oh, and hope Montana loses the Brawl, otherwise calamity will ensue.

[Preferred Walk-On]

This seemed like as good a place as any to post the FCS selection committee top 10 if the season were to end today:





North Dakota State
Montana State
South Dakota State
South Dakota
UC Davis
Southeast Missouri State
Idaho
Mercer
Incarnate Word
Montana


Committee must have ignored KPI...

[uofmman1122]

If Mercer beats ETSU, VMI, and Furman, how much do you think the Bears will need to beat Alabama by in order to keep Montana from jumping them for the #8 Seed?
Well, if we win out, you're gonna have to beat Alabama in order to get a better seed than us.

[SeattleCat]

Well, if we win out, you're gonna have to beat Alabama in order to get a better seed than us.

There's a buzzsaw on your schedule...

[uofmman1122]

There's a buzzsaw on your schedule...
Maybe, but I'm not sure Davis is as good as you might think.

[FUBeAR]

Well, if we win out, you're gonna have to beat Alabama in order to get a better seed than us.
No doubt…and probably not even then; unless Mercer ran the Tide out of Bryant-Denny

FUBeAR fully expects the Committee will always seed any 0.500 or better Big Sky Team over a 1-FCS-loss 10-2 SoCon Champion.

[uofmman1122]

No doubt…and probably not even then; unless Mercer ran the Tide out of Bryant-Denny

FUBeAR fully expects the Committee will always seed any 0.500 or better Big Sky Team over a 1-FCS-loss 10-2 SoCon Champion.
Yeah, it's almost like beating the #5 and #2 teams in the country would be better than going 1-FCS-loss against a bunch of nobodies. Glad you're starting to come around.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah, it's almost like beating the #5 and #2 teams in the country would be better than going 1-FCS-loss against a bunch of nobodies. Glad you're starting to come around.
If recognizing & expecting to see the built-in systemic bias of the Committee, Polls, Playoff structure, and Computer rankings is “starting to come around,” then, yep, FUBeAR has been “around” - right round, like a record, baby - for quite some time now.

[SteelSD]

No doubt…and probably not even then; unless Mercer ran the Tide out of Bryant-Denny

FUBeAR fully expects the Committee will always seed any 0.500 or better Big Sky Team over a 1-FCS-loss 10-2 SoCon Champion.
Seems about right. Last year Mercer was the 13th best team the Jacks played. Right behind a D2 and ahead of a CAA team.

[uofmman1122]

If recognizing & expecting to see the built-in systemic bias of the Committee, Polls, Playoff structure, and Computer rankings is “starting to come around,” then, yep, FUBeAR has been “around” - right round, like a record, baby - for quite some time now.
https://i.imgur.com/GRB0Sux.png

[SteelSD]

https://i.imgur.com/GRB0Sux.png
Yeah, but cold weather…

[FUBeAR]

https://i.imgur.com/GRB0Sux.png
Structural, systemic bias is an inescapable cage…

https://i.postimg.cc/5tbfM4DN/IMG-1511.png

[uofmman1122]

Structural, systemic bias is an inescapable cage…

https://i.postimg.cc/5tbfM4DN/IMG-1511.png
An artificial cage of your own making, looks pretty on the nose.

[FUBeAR]

An artificial cage of your own making, looks pretty on the nose.
FUBeAR (and CoCo) will allow you to be wrong.

[SeattleCat]

Maybe, but I'm not sure Davis is as good as you might think.

UC Davis is a Brillo pad.

[kalm]

Nice work there Pound Pup.

[MSUBobcat]

An artificial cage of your own making, looks pretty on the nose.

Looks to me the artificial cage is actually thru the forehead, not the nose.