SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 9

[FUBeAR]

SOCON SCHEDULE
All games are Saturday, 10/26. All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
TO BE PROJECTED


SAM
CIT
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54679_CIT-vs-SAM_20241026/stats/)



ETSU
WOF
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54691_WOF-vs-ETSU_20241026/stats/)



WCU
MER
3:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54720_MER-vs-WCU_20241026/stats/)



VMI
CHAT
4P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54722_CHAT-vs-VMI_20241026/stats/)



Furman taking a well-deserved and definitively needed week off.

[Milktruck74]

Obviously all SoCon Eyes will be glued to the set to see what happens in Macon this week. Will the Bears bounce back? They are gong to have to do it against a hot offense and that didn't bode well for them yesterday. SAmmy looked like they could have beat anyone in the first half yesterday...they hatcher Hatched and tried to give the bears every opportunity to get back into it. Will they have a hangover in Charleston on saturday? THe Bellhops are fired up after winning the silver phallic hat, so can they catch Sammy off guard? Probably not...But SoCon! And Woffy...they are not a bad team. Can they find a little bit of life on Offense? can they use the homefield to stifle the Bucs offense and maybe get a defensive score? Probably not,...but SoCon. I think the Mocs should handle the keydets quickly, but how much time will Rusty and company spend during the week working on their WCU package?

This will be an interesting week in the SoCon...Lets Ride!

[Reign of Terrier]

So I have been saying Wofford could still make the playoffs at 7-5. I no longer think that's true. The losses to Chatt and Mercer were just too bad, even if Richmond is looking great right now. The good news is we have like a 50%ish chance of having Amari Odom back. I'm hoping the Terriers make 5-7, which will be possible with the Citadel and Furman still on the schedule.

[Mocs123]

I'm sure FUBeAR won't stray from his newfound love of science this week - as Massey still has Mercer as the top team in the SoCon this week.

#14 - Mercer
#16 - Chattanooga
#30 - Western Carolina
#32 - ETSU
#37 - Samford
#50 - Wofford
#63 - Furman
#81 - The Citadel
#115 - VMI

[Mocs123]

Looking at this weeks games - the obvious game of the week is the #30 Western Carolina Catamounts at the #14 Mercer Bears. Friday, this would have been an easy pick for me - with the Bears the clear favorites, but it's a bit harder after Saturday. The Bears imploded a bit and Catamounts racked up 810 yards of offense - I mean those numbers are hard to ignore.

WCU's offense at the beginning of the year was pretty pedestrian but other than a little bit of a head scratching one score loss to #68 Campbell, they've not looked bad....respectable losses to FBS - NC State and #7 Montana. WCU's best win is over #44 Elon.

Mercer started off the season with some blowout wins over terrible teams and have one quality win - #16 Chattanooga. The defense has looked really good though!

Either way it should be a good game, but I've got to ponder on it a bit before I make my pick on the game...

[ElCid]

Anybody onboard for setting up a Go fund Me Page for FUBeARs mental health counselling sessions?

[Mocdaddy]

Nah, Milktruck will offer his services for free.

[The Cats]

Picks:

ETSU (4-3, 2-1 SoCon) at Wofford (3-4, 1-3 SoCon)
Samford (3-3, 2-1 SoCon) at The Citadel (3-5, 1-4 SoCon)
Western Carolina (4-3, 3-0 SoCon) at Mercer (6-1, 3-1 SoCon)
VMI (0-7, 0-3 SoCon) at Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1 SoCon)


Power Rankings:

Last week's ranking are in parentheses.

1. (2) Western Carolina (4-3, 3-0 SoCon)
Next: at Mercer(6-1, 3-1 SoCon)

2. (3) Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1 SoCon)
Next: VMI (0-7, 0-3 SoCon)

3. (4) ETSU (4-3, 2-1 SoCon)
Next: at Wofford (3-4, 1-3 SoCon)

4. (5) Samford (3-3, 2-1 SoCon)
Next: at The Citadel (2-6, 0-4 SoCon)

5. (1) Mercer (4-3, 3-0 SoCon)
Next: Western Carolina (4-3, 3-0 SoCon)

6. (7) Wofford (3-4, 1-3 SoCon)
Next: ETSU (4-3, 2-1 SoCon)

7. (6) Furman (2-4, 1-1 SoCon)
Next: Western Carolina (3-3, 3-0 SoCon)

8. (8) The Citadel (2-6, 0-4 SoCon)
Next: Samford (3-3, 2-1 SoCon)

9. (9) VMI (0-7, 0-3 SoCon)
Next: at Chattanooga (4-3, 3-1 SoCon)

[The Cats]

Anybody onboard for setting up a Go fund Me Page for FUBeARs mental health counselling sessions?

I'm sure Foosbear can afford to pay for his own psychiatric services out of all the money Furman & Mercer pay him as an athletic influencer...

[caribbeanhen]

I'm sure Foosbear can afford to pay for his own psychiatric services out of all the money Furman & Mercer pay him as an athletic influencer...

Would it be more accurate to say The Southern Conference Commish is cutting his checks..

[wcugrad95]

My weekly stoopid ratings always start with my stoopid stats. Based on games so far against scholarship FCS teams, and account for average of point differential, yards gained, and yards given up. These are simply in alphabetical order.



Team
Games Played
Avg Pts For
Avg Pts Against
Difference
Rank
Avg Passing
Avg Rushing
Total
Rank
Passing Against
Rushing Against
Total
Rank


Chattanooga
5
28.60
13.00
15.60
1
265
137
402
3
155
138
293
2


Citadel
7
17.86
24.71
(6.86)
7
172
138
310
6
225
146
371
7


ETSU
5
28.80
22.80
6.00
5
182
222
404
2
242
105
347
5


Furman
5
18.20
33.40
(15.20)
8
217
80
297
8
248
202
450
9


Mercer
6
28.33
15.17
13.17
2
217
157
374
4
223
49
272
1


Samford
5
30.20
22.80
7.40
3
273
97
370
5
224
106
330
4


VMI
6
12.33
29.83
(17.50)
9
122
112
234
9
221
136
357
6


WCU
6
29.67
23.33
6.33
4
334
135
469
1
234
182
416
8


Wofford
7
17.71
23.29
(5.57)
6
202
104
306
7
171
159
330
3



If I just take the average ranking and give more credence to point differential, Chattanooga would for the first time since I started these move in front of Mercer. But at some point things like H2H, SOS, and your conference record have to come into play. What these are now starting to tell me is per usual, we are on the verge of having another mess on our hands down the stretch in the SOCON with literally 5 of 9 teams who can argue why they should be in the top 2 or 3 of anybody's rankings.

Special notes:

Mercer's D took a big hit with points and yards, but still will statistically be very high becaue of how they performed the first 6 games.
UTC really kind of just put it in cruise control on offense, but their margin of victory, points scored, and only giving up 5 points gets them way up the list (and probably moving up the national rankings, too).
VMI actually outgained Citadel on Saturday, but still took the loss and still have the largest negative point differential.
WCU's offensive outbreak helps them move into the top spot for offensive production, and helps move them into 4th on point differential. The Cats also move into #2 on average points scored. Western is often the butt of jokes regarding defense, but after only giving up 55 rushing yards this week move out of last place in average yards given up (Furman takes over that distinction after giving up over 800 to WCU).


I need to noodle on these numbers a little more to come up with my rankings. I want to move Samford way up because of their win, but of course they also already lost to ETSU. I want to drop Mercer down because of their loss against a good passing offense. Is WCU the team who can now score 40 and get 500+ yards (I'd put them top-2 or 3) or are we the team who lost to Campbell and gave up gobs of yardage to Montana (then I'd put us more like 4 or 5). I honestly think any of the top 5 on these statistical rankings have a legit shot at the SOCON crown.

Except of course for Western. We'll figure out some way to screw this up and lose 2 or 3 and let the Campbell debacle once again keep us out of the playoffs.

[FUBeAR]

95 sez…

I want to drop Mercer down because of their loss against a good passing offense.

Mercer’s D previously ceded over 300 yards passing to CIT and CHATT was approaching that. So, 378 by Samford is not terribly out of line for Mercer’s D to allow vs. a SoCon Team…and Mercer’s D did have 3 more INT’s…and 3 more Sacks. They still lead the FCS in both of those metrics.

The story of that game was written by the Mercer Offense’s 1st 3 disastrous possessions giving Samford the ability to score 21 points while only covering 71 yards AND by the Mercer Offense, apparently, wanting to finish what they started, enabling a Samford Fumble Return TD and a Samford INT Return TD in the 4th quarter. Samford’s Offense had 3 ‘normal’ scoring possessions in the 1st half, which is great. Samford’s Offense did not score after halftime and only gained 89 yards & made only 3 1st downs on 8 possessions.

As you’re applying your human element, subjectivity to your rankings, individual ‘game flow’ might be worth considering.

Score is still 55-35 Samford W … but the game was certainly not about Mercer’s Defense failure to stop Samford’s Passing game. That may have been an element of the game, but more of a to-be-expected one than a defining element.

[wcugrad95]

Very true FUBeAR, but I said heading into the game that the only small possible chink in Mercer's D was the passing game and that teams should open up and try to exploit that. It can lead to INTs and sacks, but it can also lead to points. So I was more saying Mercer faced a notable passing team and gave up 378 and several TD throws. Although true it didn't take a whole lot for Sammie to get those early scores.

I also don't know what to think about the backup QB. In some ways, the Mercer O looked better with him out there. But still mistakes will be made by any of the young QBs the Bears have. Your starter is more athletic and can give you a more dynamic rushing attack (although the backup got some yards, too). I would be more scared of DJ Smith as a Catamount given our struggles with other athletic and competent running QBs.

[Milktruck74]

Nah, Milktruck will offer his services for free.

I know the remedy to his ailments....and I can spring for a handle of Tito's...but if it takes more than that, someone else is on the hook for the second dose!

[FUBeAR]

Very true FUBeAR, but I said heading into the game that the only small possible chink in Mercer's D was the passing game and that teams should open up and try to exploit that. It can lead to INTs and sacks, but it can also lead to points. So I was more saying Mercer faced a notable passing team and gave up 378 and several TD throws. Although true it didn't take a whole lot for Sammie to get those early scores.

I also don't know what to think about the backup QB. In some ways, the Mercer O looked better with him out there. But still mistakes will be made by any of the young QBs the Bears have. Your starter is more athletic and can give you a more dynamic rushing attack (although the backup got some yards, too). I would be more scared of DJ Smith as a Catamount given our struggles with other athletic and competent running QBs.
You can drop Mercer to #9 based on the 1st and 4th quarter performance of the Bears’ O if you would like … but you said you wanted “to drop Mercer down because of their loss against a good passing offense.”

Yes, Mercer lost to a good passing offense, but they really didn’t lose BECAUSE of that good passing Offense.

They lost because of early crushing consecutive mistakes by the Mercer Offense (and 1 shanked punt) and miraculous-comeback-killing Offense errors that were capitalized upon and some/many/most/all (choose your preferred qualifier) certainly caused by Samford’s opportunistic Defense.

[Milktruck74]

You can drop Mercer to #9 based on the 1st and 4th quarter performance of the Bears’ O if you would like … but you said you wanted “to drop Mercer down because of their loss against a good passing offense.”

Yes, Mercer lost to a good passing offense, but they really didn’t lose BECAUSE of that good passing Offense.

They lost because of early crushing consecutive mistakes by the Mercer Offense (and 1 shanked punt) and miraculous-comeback-killing Offense errors that were capitalized upon and some/many/most/all (choose your preferred qualifier) certainly caused by Samford’s opportunistic Defense.

This Pains Me to even mention....but....if Mercer doesnt give up that fumble return for TD...They were on the way to mounting one hell of a comeback. Hatcher did everything in his power to give them the time they needed to do so... So, what would we (and the rest of AGS) be saying about Mercer if they were able to actually mount the comeback that they were trying to get done? I have to agree a little with Fooobie...The Mercer D is not the issue with this game. and I think they will adjust and show it next saturday against the CAts. That is going to be a fun one to watch...either WCU thumps the Bears and my mocs control their own destiny in the SoCon Hunt...or...Mercer regroups and has the same 1 loss record as my Mocs...I don't even know how the Conference might shake out, but I know my Mocs are in the Hunt!

[SU DOG]

I can't understand why no mention has been made about the Samford rushing defense. It has been good all year, but anyone look at the stats vs Mercer? Mercer had 34 rushing attempts and gained a total net of 39 yards, that is a 1.1 yards/carry average. That is playing some terrific defense against the Bears' RBs. Samford has a very weak running game as usual, but did manage 2.1 yds/carry and a net rushing total of 68 yards on 33 attempts. BTW, not that it really matters, but Hatcher pulled the defensive starters out of the game at the 6:33 mark of the 4th quarter, so the last Mercer TD was scored on the 2nd defense.

Another observation that is just my opinion, but I am glad that Whitt Newbauer wasn't groomed from fall camp on to be the starting Mercer QB. That kid is gonna win a lot of games for the Bears if he isn't poached by some G or even P4 Team. He is a PLAYER!

[wcugrad95]

While I will give you Sammy got plenty of gifts in the game, Mercer's #1 in the world D still gave up plenty of scores. After the first 3 TDs on short fields, Samford scored on a 1-play, 77-yard pass. Then after the Bears got on the board, Samford had a 15-play 73-yard TD drive and another 6-play 89-yard TD drive. Did those not count against Mercer's D? At that point it was 42-7 and Samford almost went into Hatcher mode to give the game away.

I give all kinds of credit for Mercer showing heart and character to try and fight back. I've seen plenty of WCU teams that would have folded up and went home. But I think you are doing a little disservice to Samford's O, and you still have to recognize that not all of their scores came on ultra-short fields.

Mercer has played a cupcake schedule outside the UTC game. They balled-out in that one on D, but their other-worldly stats were primarily built against the likes of Presbyterian, Bethune Cookman, Princeton, and giving up 21 points and 393 yards to the Citadel. The Bellhops scored 13 and only had 188 total yards against VMI yesterday.

Am I saying Mercer is a terrible team? In no form or fashion. Am I saying the Bears can't still win 9 or 10 games? I'd be surprised if they don't. Am I saying they can't come out and shut WCU down next week? I have actually seen it happen before (including the last game in Macon). But am I saying they have shown they can be thrown on and give up some points? Yes - I am saying that. If their D was as good as some think, they wouldn't have given up all those other scores and could have still won the game with the 35 points Mercer did score. Those 3 drives are the 20-point difference just as much as the scoop and score and INT return.

[FUBeAR]

While I will give you Sammy got plenty of gifts in the game, Mercer's #1 in the world D still gave up plenty of scores. After the first 3 TDs on short fields, Samford scored on a 1-play, 77-yard pass. Then after the Bears got on the board, Samford had a 15-play 73-yard TD drive and another 6-play 89-yard TD drive. Did those not count against Mercer's D? At that point it was 42-7 and Samford almost went into Hatcher mode to give the game away.

I give all kinds of credit for Mercer showing heart and character to try and fight back. I've seen plenty of WCU teams that would have folded up and went home. But I think you are doing a little disservice to Samford's O, and you still have to recognize that not all of their scores came on ultra-short fields.

Mercer has played a cupcake schedule outside the UTC game. They balled-out in that one on D, but their other-worldly stats were primarily built against the likes of Presbyterian, Bethune Cookman, Princeton, and giving up 21 points and 393 yards to the Citadel. The Bellhops scored 13 and only had 188 total yards against VMI yesterday.

Am I saying Mercer is a terrible team? In no form or fashion. Am I saying the Bears can't still win 9 or 10 games? I'd be surprised if they don't. Am I saying they can't come out and shut WCU down next week? I have actually seen it happen before (including the last game in Macon). But am I saying they have shown they can be thrown on and give up some points? Yes - I am saying that. If their D was as good as some think, they wouldn't have given up all those other scores and could have still won the game with the 35 points Mercer did score. Those 3 drives are the 20-point difference just as much as the scoop and score and INT return.
OK … sure … whatever you said…

https://i.giphy.com/i5122m6rzSAwg.webp

[bonarae]

Samford
ETSU
Mercer
Chattanooga

[wcugrad95]

FOOBS - I thought you were a man of science? Math and science say the Mercer D surrendered 451 total yards and even if some were short fields they gave up 6 offensive TDs to Samford. Last year WCU had some terrible TOs against Furman and Mercer and I was told that was because those other teams “made those plays happen” when I said it was Western’s fault more than the other team. Are you already off the math and science bandwagon?

I am only spinning the actual stats and scoring drive details.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Let’s not celebrate WCU just yet for beating up on Furman. The same team that lost to Charleston Southern (sorry FUBear). I’ll allow it if they come into Macon and win, which is a big ask. Duke did beat FSU for the first time (1-22 all time). Streaks are made to be broken eventually! I don’t think this is the year though.

my power ranks:

1. UTC
2. Samford
3. Mercer
4. ETSU
5. WCU - 2015 was a good year! The last time WCU beat Mercer.
6. wofford
7. The Citadel
8. Furman
9. VMI

[Milktruck74]

Offensive POW - Obviously when you throw it for 620 yards you are going to be the OPOW, but numbers aside and a little devil's advocate tossed in there for good measure...(and the fact that his performance was noteworthy...but paled in comparison to Gonzoles)....What about Crittenden?

So, for discussion...Which was a better "performance"? Going 35/55 for 620 yards and 5 TDs against a very broken and young team...or going 23/37 for 378 yards and 4 TDs against one of the top Defenses in FCS?

I'll say both are impressive, both are worthy of POW honors but which was a better performance? Now I did take away QC's 3 picks....and if he didn't have those, I could easily argue for him being POW over CG...but he gave up the rock...but again to a better defense...

So who was more impressive saturday? Thoughts? I'm sure FooBare will have some unbiased and informative thoughts regarding which QB was most impressive dismantling his two teams!

[FUBeAR]

Offensive POW - Obviously when you throw it for 620 yards you are going to be the OPOW, but numbers aside and a little devil's advocate tossed in there for good measure...(and the fact that his performance was noteworthy...but paled in comparison to Gonzoles)....What about Crittenden?

So, for discussion...Which was a better "performance"? Going 35/55 for 620 yards and 5 TDs against a very broken and young team...or going 23/37 for 378 yards and 4 TDs against one of the top Defenses in FCS?

I'll say both are impressive, both are worthy of POW honors but which was a better performance? Now I did take away QC's 3 picks....and if he didn't have those, I could easily argue for him being POW over CG...but he gave up the rock...but again to a better defense...

So who was more impressive saturday? Thoughts? I'm sure FooBare will have some unbiased and informative thoughts regarding which QB was most impressive dismantling his two teams!
Nah…Both were extremely impressive. They do different things in their different Offenses and both excelled at doing what they were asked to do. FUBeAR would just as soon have this guy on his Team…

Passing


Player
Cmp
Att.
Yds.
TD
Int.
Long
Sack


Artopoeus,Chase (https://gomocs.com/sports/football/roster/chase-artopoeus/11082)
13
19
145
1
0
45
0


Rushing


Player
Att.
Gain
Loss
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


Artopoeus,Chase (https://gomocs.com/sports/football/roster/chase-artopoeus/11082)
5
36
0
36
2
13
7.2



All 3 are OUTSTANDING and none really get the National recognition they deserve.

Gonzales might because Coach Bell will take every opportunity to enable him to pump up his stats.

Crittenden, who is a bit different than his predecessors, and differently (though, not lesser so) effective, will not have typical Samford QB stats, and…

…Coach Wright probably isn’t aware that stats are kept of QB’s…and if he is aware, he doesn’t care. So Acidophilus will always be under appreciated by peeps outside of the SoCon.

[ElCid]

Offensive POW - Obviously when you throw it for 620 yards you are going to be the OPOW, but numbers aside and a little devil's advocate tossed in there for good measure...(and the fact that his performance was noteworthy...but paled in comparison to Gonzoles)....What about Crittenden?

So, for discussion...Which was a better "performance"? Going 35/55 for 620 yards and 5 TDs against a very broken and young team...or going 23/37 for 378 yards and 4 TDs against one of the top Defenses in FCS?

I'll say both are impressive, both are worthy of POW honors but which was a better performance? Now I did take away QC's 3 picks....and if he didn't have those, I could easily argue for him being POW over CG...but he gave up the rock...but again to a better defense...

So who was more impressive saturday? Thoughts? I'm sure FooBare will have some unbiased and informative thoughts regarding which QB was most impressive dismantling his two teams!

To "me" the pow is more than just pure numbers. I like both your sides of the issue. But WCU going in and winning big on the road for the first time at Furman in 10 years is huge. But throwing 3 INTs is still throwing INTs against a good D or not. That "could" have cost the game had Mercer capitalized on them. That they didn't was on Mercer and their poor O that day, not on anything Sanford's QB did. So even if he still did very good overall, he handed Mercer more chances to come back. I POWs don't do that. Samford didn't win solely because of their QB. "I" believed WCU did win because of their QB. His numbers being more than gaudy, gaudy on steroids, cements it in my mind. All subjective of course.

[caribbeanhen]

FOOBS - I thought you were a man of science? .

Poetry in motion is what Fubby wants to be
his bull is deeper than any ocean https://www.musicchartsarchive.com/sites/default/files/singles-large/dolby-thomas--she-blinded-me-with-science.jpg

[wcugrad95]

Clearly I am biased, but Gonzales set a SOCON record for most passing yards in the history of the league. According to Wikipedia the 620 would be the 14th most in the history of NCAA D1 football (7th most in FCS play). Gotta give him the nod here.

[SU DOG]

I would have to agree that the gaudy passing yard numbers of Gonzales would have to get the nod here.

[Smitty]

5. WCU - 2015 was a good year! The last time WCU beat Mercer.


I really appreciate everybody reminding me the last time WCU beat another team somewhere, as if I hadn't been living through the last 20 years of it...

[Milktruck74]

Yeah, I'm not trying to take away from CG in any way. I didn't realize that 620 is the 7th best FCS performance ever....and there have been some good FCS QBs that have played against some really bad Defenses over the years (just thinking about Steve McNair in the swac). But it's hard to be a QB with 378 and 4 tds and not the pow. Ha. Those numbers get you the opow every week this year...except week 8. If Cole had 378 and 4 against a weak Furple D, that's still a great performance. Just a good chance to spark some Monday discussion.

[wcugrad95]

Totally get it Milktruck - I think it is a good discussion particularly given Mercer's defensive stats coming into the game. But then as I was looking at them as WCU's opponent this week, I noticed that in 3 of the 4 SOCON games the Bears have played they have given up at least 250 yards passing (259 to UTC but no TDs, then 336 and 1 TD to Citadel, and now 378 and 4 TDs to Samford). They totally shut Wofford down in all phases. So in 4 SOCON games the Bears have given up 1103 yards passing and 5 TDs. That is an average of over 275 yards passing and more than 1 TD per game.

Now they have also picked up 9 INTs in those games with I think maybe 3 being returned for scores, so that is still a bit of proceed at your own caution. The Bears may shut WCU down, but for better or worse I do expect us to test them through the air both deep but also with mid-range and on-time passes like Samford did. Tall order to do that to a really good defense a 2nd week in a row.

[Mocs123]

…Coach Wright probably isn’t aware that stats are kept of QB’s…and if he is aware, he doesn’t care. So Acidophilus will always be under appreciated by peeps outside of the SoCon.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Coach Wright would just assume line up with two tight ends, a fullback, tailback, and run it up the gut every play.

[FUBeAR]

The peeps on the WCU were doing some Mercer vs. WCU Schedule comparative analysis … yeah, we’ll call it that.

So, since FUBeAR worked this up for them, he thought he should share it here, FWIW…



WCU











FCS
Opponent

FCS
Opponent Record

Massey
Rank
Sagarin
Rank
Game Result

Points
For
Points
Against
Common Opponent
Difference

Total
Common Opponent
Difference

Best W / Worst L



Campbell

2-5
68
70
L

16
24


L



Elon

2-5
44
41
W
24
17


W


Montana
5-2
7
6
L
35
46





Wofford

3-4
50
69
W
21
17
+4




Citadel

3-5
81
94
W
30
16
+14
+18



Furman
2-5
63
73
W
52
20





Total / Average

17-26
(0.395)
52
59
4-2
178
140
+38






Avg/Avg

56
McNeese-ish




















MERCER












FCS

Opponent


FCS

Opponent Record


Massey

Rank


Sagarin

Rank


Game

Result


Points

For


Points

Against


Common Opponent

Difference


Total

Common Opponent
Difference

Best W / Worst L



Presbyterian
2-6
125
116
W
63
10





Bethune-Cookman
1-6
123
117
W
31
2





Chattanooga

4-3
16
9
W
10
3


W


Citadel

3-5
81
94
W
38
21
+17




Wofford

3-4
50
69
W
22
3
+19
+36



Princeton
2-3
67
62
W
34
7





Samford

3-3
37
32
L
35
55


L


Total / Average


18-30
(0.375)

71
71
6-1
233
101
+132






Avg/Avg

71
TN Tech-ish

[FUBeAR]

SOCON SCHEDULE
All games are Saturday, 10/26. All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
TO BE PROJECTED


SAM
CIT
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54679_CIT-vs-SAM_20241026/stats/)



ETSU
WOF
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54691_WOF-vs-ETSU_20241026/stats/)



WCU
MER
3:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54720_MER-vs-WCU_20241026/stats/)



VMI
CHAT
4P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54722_CHAT-vs-VMI_20241026/stats/)



Furman taking a well-deserved and definitively needed week off.

FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Rankings

FUBeAR must apologize for his tardiness in getting his Power Rankings posted this week. Hopefully, Vegas has not had to shut down operations during the delay. FUBeAR was awaiting a couple of return calls from Indianapolis and Spartanburg before he could make his final decisions and post his Rankings this week. So, without further adieux…

FUBeAR, ever a Bear of SCIENCE, will choose to, once again this week, not rely on his own understanding, and, instead, subjugate his own feelings and opinions to the empirical knowledge of the EXPERTS.




FUBeAR’s
Power
Rank


SoCon
Team


Massey
Projected
Overall Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Win %


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

9-3


7-1


0.875


2

Loss to Mercer



3

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

7-4


5-2


0.714


3

Losses to ETSU, Chatt



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

6-6


5-3


0.625


4

Losses to Mercer, Chatt, Samford



5

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

7-5


5-3


0.625


5

Losses to Chatt, Mercer, WCU



6

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

4-8


2-6


0.250


7

Wins over CIT, VMI



7

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

3-9


1-7


0.125


8

Win over VMI



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)

0-11


0-8


0.000


9

0’fer / 0’fer



















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

4-7


3-4


0.429


6

Wins over CIT, VMI, Woff



Astute and observant readers will note something a might different about FUBeAR’s Power Rankings this week.

FUBeAR learned over the weekend, during his Homecoming pilgrimage to Travelers Rest, that Furman had respectfully and sincerely applied to the NCAA and the SoCon seeking a Team Redshirt for the 2024 Season.

Those money-grubbing NCAA incompetents in Indy and those heartless souls (AKA Wofford Fans & beneficiaries) in SparkleCity, without just cause, denied the Paladin plea however and here we are.

Once FUBeAR confirmed the facts of the matter, late this afternoon, with Messiuer’s Baker and Cross, he had an agonizing decision to make.

FUBeAR, unlike, the merciless tyrants in power, out of an abundance of caution for the fine Student Athletes at Furman, has chosen to recognize the thoughtful Paladin petition and will, now, exempt Furman from his Power Rankings for the balance of the 2024 Season.

Please respect this difficult heartfelt decision.

[ElCid]

SOCON SCHEDULE
All games are Saturday, 10/26. All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
TO BE PROJECTED


SAM
CIT
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54679_CIT-vs-SAM_20241026/stats/)



ETSU
WOF
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54691_WOF-vs-ETSU_20241026/stats/)



WCU
MER
3:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54720_MER-vs-WCU_20241026/stats/)



VMI
CHAT
4P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54722_CHAT-vs-VMI_20241026/stats/)



Furman taking a well-deserved and definitively needed week off.

FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Rankings

FUBeAR must apologize for his tardiness in getting his Power Rankings posted this week. Hopefully, Vegas has not had to shut down operations during the delay. FUBeAR was awaiting a couple of return calls from Indianapolis and Spartanburg before he could make his final decisions and post his Rankings this week. So, without further adieux…

FUBeAR, ever a Bear of SCIENCE, will choose to, once again this week, not rely on his own understanding, and, instead, subjugate his own feelings and opinions to the empirical knowledge of the EXPERTS.




FUBeAR’s
Power
Rank


SoCon
Team


Massey
Projected
Overall Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Win %


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

9-3


7-1


0.875


2

Loss to Mercer



3

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

7-4


5-2


0.714


3

Losses to ETSU, Chatt



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

6-6


5-3


0.625


4

Losses to Mercer, Chatt, Samford



5

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

7-5


5-3


0.625


5

Losses to Chatt, Mercer, WCU



6

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

4-8


2-6


0.250


7

Wins over CIT, VMI



7

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

3-9


1-7


0.125


8

Win over VMI



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)

0-11


0-8


0.000


9

0’fer / 0’fer



















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

4-7


3-4


0.429


6

Wins over CIT, VMI, Woff



Astute and observant readers will note something a might different about FUBeAR’s Power Rankings this week.

FUBeAR learned over the weekend, during his Homecoming pilgrimage to Travelers Rest, that Furman had respectfully and sincerely applied to the NCAA and the SoCon seeking a Team Redshirt for the 2024 Season.

Those money-grubbing NCAA incompetents in Indy and those heartless souls (AKA Wofford Fans & beneficiaries) in SparkleCity, without just cause, denied the Paladin plea however and here we are.

Once FUBeAR confirmed the facts of the matter, late this afternoon, with Messiuer’s Baker and Cross, he had an agonizing decision to make.

FUBeAR, unlike, the merciless tyrants in power, out of an abundance of caution for the fine Student Athletes at Furman, has chosen to recognize the thoughtful Paladin petition and will, now, exempt Furman from his Power Rankings for the balance of the 2024 Season.

Please respect this difficult heartfelt decision.

I see your mental health counselling session must have gone well. So happy to hear.

[gofurman]

To "me" the pow is more than just pure numbers. I like both your sides of the issue. But WCU going in and winning big on the road for the first time at Furman in 10 years is huge. But throwing 3 INTs is still throwing INTs against a good D or not. That "could" have cost the game had Mercer capitalized on them. That they didn't was on Mercer and their poor O that day, not on anything Sanford's QB did. So even if he still did very good overall, he handed Mercer more chances to come back. I POWs don't do that. Samford didn't win solely because of their QB. "I" believed WCU did win because of their QB. His numbers being more than gaudy, gaudy on steroids, cements it in my mind. All subjective of course.

it’s good by Western. But look, Furman stinks this year. I mean SUCKS. especially at pass D. We are on our FOURTH bandit player - our primary pass rush guy. First team was all American Luke Clark. All American. We don’t beat Citadel without him. Had key sacks where he just shoved the Citadel OT to the ground. He’s out. Then the 2nd and 3rd string are now out. On 4th string bandit true freshman now who we never expected to play.

western did very well. Great even ! But beating us is like loading up on VMI right now. You SHOULD set records vs Furman this year. We’ve beaten VMI by 50+ many years. Heck, we beat Stetson by 40 this year. That hasn’t aged well. I would slow my roll on Western until they beat Mercer and UTC …. Not being negative. Just saying my guys are in a total rebuild. Wait a week or three

maybe Western is that good. But Furman - HORRIBLE - is just one ( bad ) data point

[wcugrad95]

I am not sure anybody is now picking WCU to run the table. The POW talk is just that - player of this last week. So I took it that ElCid was referencing Cole’s crazy numbers were also notable that they came on the road in a place Western has not done well.

[wcugrad95]

And as I replied to FUBeAR’s post on the WCU board, I am not sure what his schedule comparison is trying to accomplish? Just looking at FCS level games it shows Mercer has played a weaker schedule than even WCU. Throw in our FBS game against NC State and it shows our overall schedule is even that much tougher.

The argument was not who had the easier schedule so far. The argument (just like I saw made by Samford posters heading into the game last week when FOOBS posted all those stats on their board) is that much of Mercer’s dominant defensive stats have come against pretty poor competition minus Chattanooga.

I still think Mercer is an elite D, particularly in the run game, getting after the passer, and causing turnovers (and turning those into scores). But I was SHOCKED as I started looking at some defensive stats. Mercer is #2 in the SOCON in TFLs. Do you know who #1 is?

Last time Western played in Macon we took an epic beatdown. And they have beaten us 8 straight years. So it will no doubt take poor little Western’s best game to stay on the field in this one. You should all pick Mercer.

[Reign of Terrier]

I am not sure anybody is now picking WCU to run the table. The POW talk is just that - player of this last week. So I took it that ElCid was referencing Cole’s crazy numbers were also notable that they came on the road in a place Western has not done well.

I will be honest...I'm tempted to?

[ElCid]

And as I replied to FUBeAR’s post on the WCU board, I am not sure what his schedule comparison is trying to accomplish? Just looking at FCS level games it shows Mercer has played a weaker schedule than even WCU. Throw in our FBS game against NC State and it shows our overall schedule is even that much tougher.

The argument was not who had the easier schedule so far. The argument (just like I saw made by Samford posters heading into the game last week when FOOBS posted all those stats on their board) is that much of Mercer’s dominant defensive stats have come against pretty poor competition minus Chattanooga.

I still think Mercer is an elite D, particularly in the run game, getting after the passer, and causing turnovers (and turning those into scores). But I was SHOCKED as I started looking at some defensive stats. Mercer is #2 in the SOCON in TFLs. Do you know who #1 is?

Last time Western played in Macon we took an epic beatdown. And they have beaten us 8 straight years. So it will no doubt take poor little Western’s best game to stay on the field in this one. You should all pick Mercer.

I think it's going to be much harder on WCU after Mercer's stumble last week. They will be fired up. But WCU looks to be in the groove as well. Could they be peaking at the right time? The next three games for y'all are going to be tough.

[FUBeAR]

And as I replied to FUBeAR’s post on the WCU board, I am not sure what his schedule comparison is trying to accomplish? Just looking at FCS level games it shows Mercer has played a weaker schedule than even WCU. Throw in our FBS game against NC State and it shows our overall schedule is even that much tougher.

The argument was not who had the easier schedule so far. The argument (just like I saw made by Samford posters heading into the game last week when FOOBS posted all those stats on their board) is that much of Mercer’s dominant defensive stats have come against pretty poor competition minus Chattanooga.

I still think Mercer is an elite D, particularly in the run game, getting after the passer, and causing turnovers (and turning those into scores). But I was SHOCKED as I started looking at some defensive stats. Mercer is #2 in the SOCON in TFLs. Do you know who #1 is?
Trying to accomplish? What an odd comment.

Unlike the world we live in today, FUBeAR was raised in a time when analysis began with data compilation instead of an agenda.

In this instance, FUBeAR noticed that WCU’s fans seemed to be attributing any success Mercer has enjoyed this season as due to their schedule being comprised of 5 & Under Youth Girl’s Ballet Clubs. And then FUBeAR noticed WCU fans describing ‘24 Montana as pretty much the same the ‘85 Bears (Chicago version, not Mercer’s) and favorably comparing Elon (the University, not Musk) to the ‘01 Miami Hurricanes (wish they would stay in Miami, instead of flooding the Tar Heel State).

So FUBeAR said to himself, “Dang, FUBeAR, y’know, FUBeAR should really take a few minutes to compile and organize the data that will enable us to compare the schedules and results of Mercer and WCU. Because, it seems, FUBeAR, from reading these WCU fans’ descriptions, perhaps Mercer would be best served to forfeit this game against a WCU Team which clearly plays in such an elevated stratum that is so far above that in which Mercer has so lowly toiled.”

So, then, FUBeAR, in the way he was taught, began to compile and organize the available data, taking great care to be sure that the data included in the presented was complete, accurate, and relevant. And, of course, FUBeAR didn’t want to “cherry-pick” as the partisan fan is wont to do (see quoted post above for several examples).

Now, with all of the relevant data compiled, organized, and presented, FUBeAR, so far, has provided no analysis as to what that data might tell us, preferring to allow the reader to develop his/her/their own interpretations.


But…as FUBeAR has now been accused of “trying to accomplish” something by simply compiling, organizing, and presenting data, FUBeAR might as well present some of the findings he sees in this data…

- Despite facing 2 very low-rated opponents to open the season, Mercer’s overall Strength of Schedule (SoS) has risen considerably in the subsequent 5 games.

- FUBeAR finds it beneficial to ‘boil down’ complex comparative data to one single, tangible & representative factoid whenever possible.
….. - In this case, that is …. Mercers FCS schedule has equated to playing Tennessee Tech every game and WCU’s FCS schedule has equated to playing McNeese every game.
….. - Massey's Matchup Tool projects the most likely result between these 2 Teams on a neutral field would be a 2 point win by the Cowboys.
….. - Thus, FUBeAR concludes the difference in Mercer’s vs. WCU’s schedules is not 5 year old ballet girls vs. Super Bowl Champions.
….. - It’s actually a rather insignificant difference, if you, y’know, use actual data to inform your opinion.

- Mercer has a far better “Best Win” (Chatt 16/9) than WCU (Elon 44/41)
- WCU has a far worse “Worst Loss” (Campbell 68/70) than Mercer (Samford 37/32)

- While both Mercer & WCU have defeated each of their 2 common opponents, Mercer’s win over each was a larger win than WCU’s and the Total Difference in margin in both games is 2x in Mercer’s favor.


What do you see in that data?

[wcugrad95]

I see that you are not focusing on the point that was trying to be made (by Samford fans last week and WCU fans this week). We were looking at Mercer's schedule as a possible indicator of why the defensive statistics are so astronmically good for the Bears, and how they are starting to now come down at least a little. That is what the look at Mercer's schedule was intending to do. The exact same argument was made on Samford's board and I get Mercer's O caused a lot of the problems, but Samford still did score 6 offensive TDs and gained 450 yards.

Doesn't mean Mercer doesn't have a good (dare I say elite) defense - I have said multiple times they do. But just saying it might be why they are like top 3 in so many categories in the first 6 weeks.

But since you asked what I see, I'll simplify and just look at Massey's rankings (Sagarin's are the same rankings - just different numbers):




Mercer
WCU
Tougher Game


Toughest
UTC
NC State
WCU


2nd toughest
Samford
Montana
WCU


3rd toughest
Wofford
Elon
WCU


4th toughest
Princeton
Wofford
WCU


5th toughest
Citadel
Furman
WCU


6th toughest
Bethune
Citadel
WCU


7th toughest
Presby
Campbell
WCU




Ok - so maybe you don't want me to use the NC State game. That is fine. Take them off, and slide #7 Montana up and that is still according to the stats a tougher game than #16 UTC. Mercer has played 3 teams that are ranked 81 or worse (2 that are basically the very bottom of FCS in Bethune and Presby). Western's lowest-ranked opponent is a common one for Mercer in Citadel at that 81 spot.

I am in no way saying Western has played against world-beaters. I am saying (you are even saying it) that Western has played a tougher schedule to date. None of this has any real bearing at all on Saturday's game. I am merely pointing out you can't deny Mercer's D has feasted on some pretty bad teams. But again - that is what good defenses are supposed to do, and is in no way saying Mercer can't and won't continue to be a very good defense the rest of the way. I just think their statistics will continue to change as they play some better teams. That is natural and honestly expected.

[caribbeanhen]

FuBeaR,

have you ever been to Cape Girardeau, Missouri?

[Milktruck74]

I know this past Saturday's performances (by both Mercer and Western) are making everybody a bit crazy...but using the FooBare Scientific research, Massey has WCU as the favorite in only one of its remaining 5 SoCon games (ETSU is a push). ETSU is only the underdog in its remaining game with Mercer. And the Chatty Mocs are heavy favorites in everyone but WCU (but that one is still at 57%)...

So, While Mercer v Western will be the SoCon game of the week this week...the bigger threat for the SoCon to do SoCon things will happen on 11/2 when the Mountain Pirates roll into Maconga. IF Mercer can regroup against the Cats, The ETSUx game sets up a potential 3-way crown....and what is more SoCon than that?

[rtzlunar]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Coach Wright would just assume line up with two tight ends, a fullback, tailback, and run it up the gut every play.

Buddy Nix was at the game Saturday as the 1984 team was honored. Probably the only coach in my lifetime more conservative than Rusty.

[wcugrad95]

Agree Milktruck. Western's toughest stretch is to come starting this week at Mercer. Given WCU plays all 3 of the consensus top teams, ETSU and Mercer still have to play, and now Samford is coming out as a total wildcard who still plays Chattanooga and Western, it is going to be the typical late season SOCON stretch. And of course we'll probably even get a couple of head-scatching "how did that happen" upsets, too.

5 teams with either 0 or 1 league loss heading into week 9 sets up for a crazy finish.

[SU DOG]

Two BIG questions in my mind concerns the QBs. Will D J Smith start for the Bears, or will his injury keep him out? The other question is what kind of game will Cole Gonzales have? IMO, he has to have a good game for the Cats to win. Western is more of a one-man team than Mercer and that is not meant to be a derogatory statement for either team or individual - just from my Captain Obvious observation. I can tell you one thing for sure about the Mercer defense. They are FAST to the perimeter and most running wide plays will be nada for success. Inside runs are not much different. For us, in spite of ints, Quincy was really spinning it Saturday or we would have had no chance for much of any offensive production. I will interject here that Samford has a secondary that is getting better and the most underrated defensive front in the SoCon. Back on topic, however, I really don't have a clue on how to pick this Bears-Cats game.

[FUBeAR]

I see that you are not focusing on the point that was trying to be made (by Samford fans last week and WCU fans this week). We were looking at Mercer's schedule as a possible indicator of why the defensive statistics are so astronmically good for the Bears, and how they are starting to now come down at least a little. That is what the look at Mercer's schedule was intending to do. The exact same argument was made on Samford's board and I get Mercer's O caused a lot of the problems, but Samford still did score 6 offensive TDs and gained 450 yards.

Doesn't mean Mercer doesn't have a good (dare I say elite) defense - I have said multiple times they do. But just saying it might be why they are like top 3 in so many categories in the first 6 weeks.

But since you asked what I see, I'll simplify and just look at Massey's rankings (Sagarin's are the same rankings - just different numbers):




Mercer
WCU
Tougher Game


Toughest
UTC
NC State
WCU


2nd toughest
Samford
Montana
WCU


3rd toughest
Wofford
Elon
WCU


4th toughest
Princeton
Wofford
WCU


5th toughest
Citadel
Furman
WCU


6th toughest
Bethune
Citadel
WCU


7th toughest
Presby
Campbell
WCU



Ok - so maybe you don't want me to use the NC State game. That is fine. Take them off, and slide #7 Montana up and that is still according to the stats a tougher game than #16 UTC. Mercer has played 3 teams that are ranked 81 or worse (2 that are basically the very bottom of FCS in Bethune and Presby). Western's lowest-ranked opponent is a common one for Mercer in Citadel at that 81 spot.

I am in no way saying Western has played against world-beaters. I am saying (you are even saying it) that Western has played a tougher schedule to date. None of this has any real bearing at all on Saturday's game. I am merely pointing out you can't deny Mercer's D has feasted on some pretty bad teams. But again - that is what good defenses are supposed to do, and is in no way saying Mercer can't and won't continue to be a very good defense the rest of the way. I just think their statistics will continue to change as they play some better teams. That is natural and honestly expected.
Your table is, unsurprisingly, goofy, includes irrelevant data, uses partial data, and contains errors, so … FUBeAR’s response to that is: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Now let’s look at some of your comments…

“…defensive statistics are so astronmically good for the Bears, and how they are starting to now come down…” - This is FALSE, even though you Cantamounts seem to want, for some reason, to pretend that it is true. (See below)

“I am saying (you are even saying it) that Western has played a tougher schedule to date.” - Yes, we agree that WCU has played a tougher FCS schedule than Mercer, but FUBeAR has also shown, via the McNeese/TTU data-derived factoid (and the data set as a whole), that the difference is relatively insignificant. It’s a small trench of a difference, not the yawning chasm you Cantamounts seem to want, for some reason, to pretend that it is.

”…you can't deny Mercer's D has feasted on some pretty bad teams.” - FUBeAR would not deny that Mercer’s Defense enjoyed early-season success against 2 relatively low-rated Teams. FUBeAR WOULD VEHEMENTLY DENY that Mercer’s Defense’s success has, in any way whatsoever, been limited to the success achieved in those 2 season-opening games, as you Cantamounts seem to want, for some reason, to pretend that it is. Other than ONLY yielding mostly irrelevant yards passing, and for a very brief period during the beginning of the Samford game, TD Passes; Mercer has stone-cold locked down every Offense they’ve faced. Without the most precise exercise in ‘cherry-picking,’ it’s really undeniable, even though you Cantamounts seem to want, for some reason, to pretend that it is.

“their statistics will continue to change as they play some better teams.“ - Welp, this seems to be, um, how’s it said…self-evident. Doesn’t it? But, the rate of that change is the more significant factor. Right? Despite that you Cantamounts seem to want, for some reason, to pretend that it would, or even did, all change after Mercer “played one good team” - referring to Samford & completely ignoring (and disrespecting) Chattanooga & Wofford, a Team that WCU barely defeated and that put up over almost 6x the points, 3x the number of scores, and almost 2.5x the yards on WCU’s D that they did on Mercer’s D…with Woffy’s backup QB. As you can see (below), that is simply not the case. Mercer’s Ranking in a couple of categories actually improved as a result of the Samford game and the only one that dropped was “Scoring Defense*” which we know is, speciously, impacted by the scores that came against Mercer’s Offense. Subtracting all Special Teams and Defensive Scores from the Totals of all of the leading Teams, Mercer’s Scoring Defense ranking would be #1 in FCS.

Mercer - selected NCAA FCS Statistics Rankings
- as of 10/14 | as of 10/21

- Scoring Defense - #1 | #3* (among scholarship Teams)
- Total Defense - #1 (among scholarship Teams) | #1 (among scholarship Teams)
- Rushing Defense - #1 (and no other Team is even close) | #1 (and no other Team is even close)
- 3rd Down Conversion Defense - #1 (among scholarship Teams) | #1
- Defensive TD’s - #1 | #1 (among scholarship Teams)
- 1st Downs Defense - #1 (among scholarship Teams) | #1 (among scholarship Teams)
- Passes Intercepted - #1 | #1
- Team Passing Efficiency Defense - #1 | #1 (among scholarship Teams)
- Red Zone Defense - #2 | #2
- Team Sacks - #1 | #1
- Team TFL’s - #6 | #3
- Turnovers Gained - #1 | #1
- Indiv. INT’s per game - #1 | #1 and #1 (2 Mercer Players tied for #1)

[ElCid]

I would like to know what health precautions FUBeAR has prepared if WCU thumps Mercer this week. We care about you big guy.xlovex

[wcugrad95]

Mercer is going to destroy WCU - we'll probably have negative yards passing (when Mercer is giving up 275+ in their SOCON games). Mercer's D was put in terrible positions last Saturday, so the 6 offensive TDs that were scored by Samford and the 451 yards they gave up were entirely due to Mercer's offensive blunders and the D could in no way stop any of those TDs or at least turn some of them into FGs. I am not sure why Western is even going to bother making the trip.

My guess is we'll just throw it up deep every play and hope for the best.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer is going to destroy WCU - we'll probably have negative yards passing (when Mercer is giving up 275+ in their SOCON games). Mercer's D was put in terrible positions last Saturday, so the 6 offensive TDs that were scored by Samford and the 451 yards they gave up were entirely due to Mercer's offensive blunders and the D could in no way stop any of those TDs or at least turn some of them into FGs. I am not sure why Western is even going to bother making the trip.

My guess is we'll just throw it up deep every play and hope for the best.
When facts fail you, sarcasm avails you.

[FU_Paladin08]

Week 9 Rankings:
WCU
Mercer
Chatt
ETSU
Samford
Wofford
Furman
CIT
VMI


Picks:
ETSU beats Wofford
Samford beats The Citadel
Mercer beats WCU
UTC beats VMI

[gofurman]

Anybody onboard for setting up a Go fund Me Page for FUBeARs mental health counselling sessions?

I noted after Furman played Citadel that Furman did a MUCH better job than Mercer (!) on defense. Back when we had 5 guys left...

we held Citadel (AT CITADEL) to 260 yards Total... 100 in the air. Granted, Citadel led almost the whole game so they were running the clock out some but still
Mercer (AT MERCER) gave up basically 400 yards Total to Citadel... 333 in the air. There does appear to be a passing weakness at Mercer.

I just recall wondering at the time if Mercer might be Awesome on the Front 7 but a little weak if you can get time to launch the ball?

No doubt Mercer is better than my Furman guys. not arguing that AT ALL. Just a tidbit I recall

[caribbeanhen]

FuBeaR,

have you ever been to Cape Girardeau, Missouri?

FooBee must be running for office because he’s not taking questions right now

[Bisonoline]

FuBeaR,

have you ever been to Cape Girardeau, Missouri?

I have. You cant get there from here.

[caribbeanhen]

I have. You cant get there from here.

Why not?

[Bisonoline]

Why not?

When I lived in AR it was just a hard drive with a weird configuration of roads to get there.

[caribbeanhen]

When I lived in AR it was just a hard drive with a weird configuration of roads to get there.

I see

I’m asking on the behalf of Southern Conference fans because I had some visions of a great playoff game between Southeast Missouri State and a Southern conference team. I also looked at it on a map before and was thinking that’s doesn’t look like an easy place to get to.

[FUBeAR]

I see

I’m asking on the behalf of Southern Conference fans because I had some visions of a great playoff game between Southeast Missouri State and a Southern conference team. I also looked at it on a map before and was thinking that’s doesn’t look like an easy place to get to.
Ahhh … hence your question.

Nope, and FUBeAR doesn’t foresee himself getting there any time soon.

Furman, would, now, need a Festivus and SoCon miracle to make the Playoffs and even Mercer’s chances are shaky.

Losses to both should-be (but aren’t, of course) Top 10/Top 15’s WCU & ETSU would put Mercer at 8-3 in FCS if they are even able to secure (currently) expected wins @ VMI and at home against Furman, after 3 consecutive SoCon losses in what are sure to be WARS. At that point, Mercer would most likely be unranked and, even at 8-3 FCS, the Playoff Selection Committee is just not going to put, what could be, an unranked, fading down the stretch, 4th or 5th place SoCon Team in the Playoffs…unless they beat Alabama.

Also, we have a big hoopla planned here in ATL on Quarterfinal Weekend (12/14) as FUBeAR Jr. is ‘walking’ to get his MS in Software Engineering from Georgia Tech. Kinda proud of that young man. Not sure where those smarts came from … the UPS Driver in Bear, DE, maybe? So, if you were being magnanimous and thinking of a Mercer @ SEMO matchup in the Quarters, FUBeAR would just be struggling to catch some of it on his iPhone.

[caribbeanhen]

Ahhh … hence your question.

Nope, and FUBeAR doesn’t foresee himself getting there any time soon.

Furman, would, now, need a Festivus and SoCon miracle to make the Playoffs and even Mercer’s chances are shaky.

Losses to should-be (but aren’t, of course) Top 10 or Top 15’s WCU & ETSU would put Mercer at 8-3 in FCS if they are even able to secure (currently) expected wins @ VMI and at home against Furman. At that point, they would most likely be unranked and, even at 8-3 FCS, the Playoff Selection Committee is just not going to put, what could be, an unranked, fading down the stretch, 4th or 5th place SoCon Team in the Playoffs…unless they beat Alabama.

Also, we have a big hoopla planned here in ATL on Quarterfinal Weekend (12/14) as FUBeAR Jr. is ‘walking’ to get his MS in Software Engineering from Georgia Tech. Kinda proud of that young man. Not sure where those smarts came from … the UPS Driver in Bear, DE, maybe? So, if you were being magnanimous and thinking of a Mercer @ SEMO matchup in the Quarters, FUBeAR would just be struggling to catch some of it on his iPhone.

Lmao

[wcugrad95]

While I like FUBeAR’s prediction of a WCU win, I do not expect Mercer to lose 2 more FCS games after this last Saturday’s loss. Honestly wished they would have come back against Sammy because now I think they’ll have blood in their eyes for my poor little Catamounts heading into Macon. I thought WCU had a tough stretch scheduling wise, then I see Mercer with Samford, WCU, and ETSU in consecutive weeks. And then…

I guess we all have tough schedules when there are really 5 playoff-contending type teams in a 9-team league where we all play each other every year. Regardless, I know the rules have changed a little with playoff travel but unless we get at least 3 teams in I find it hard to believe we don’t have things lined up for 2 to get in and then for them to face each other in round 2. If we have a 3rd or 4th team, I’d expect them to get shipped to the Dakotas if they won a first round game (or maybe to play a first round game).

[caribbeanhen]

Ahhh … hence your question.

Nope, and FUBeAR doesn’t foresee himself getting there any time soon.

Furman, would, now, need a Festivus and SoCon miracle to make the Playoffs and even Mercer’s chances are shaky.

Losses to both should-be (but aren’t, of course) Top 10/Top 15’s WCU & ETSU would put Mercer at 8-3 in FCS if they are even able to secure (currently) expected wins @ VMI and at home against Furman, after 3 consecutive SoCon losses in what are sure to be WARS. At that point, Mercer would most likely be unranked and, even at 8-3 FCS, the Playoff Selection Committee is just not going to put, what could be, an unranked, fading down the stretch, 4th or 5th place SoCon Team in the Playoffs…unless they beat Alabama.

Also, we have a big hoopla planned here in ATL on Quarterfinal Weekend (12/14) as FUBeAR Jr. is ‘walking’ to get his MS in Software Engineering from Georgia Tech. Kinda proud of that young man. Not sure where those smarts came from … the UPS Driver in Bear, DE, maybe? So, if you were being magnanimous and thinking of a Mercer @ SEMO matchup in the Quarters, FUBeAR would just be struggling to catch some of it on his iPhone.

is the software engineer part of the pick em LLC? Meaning using quantum computing in attempt to pick FCS games?

[Mocs123]

I agree with you wcugrad95 - nobody has an easy schedule in the SoCon and we just sort of beat up on each other. While the Mocs will probably be favored in the remainder of their games, and I certainly think the Mocs are capable of winning all of them - we could just as easily drop one or two as well.

VMI - They may seem like a slam dunk, but VMI has been a thorn in our side the past few years and we barely escaped Lexington with a win last year despite being the more talented team.
WCU - The Catamounts just had over 800 yards of offense against the defending SoCon Champs - That can't make you feel confident!
The Citadel - Charleston is always a tough place to play and the Bulldogs always play tough, no-quit football.
Samford - Despite the Mocs seemingly having the Bulldogs number the past few years, Samford just beat the #8 team in the country soundly and they're always a dangerous team.

And it's not just the Mocs - every SoCon team is looking at their remaining schedule and thinking similar things. I'd say the Mocs, Bears, Catamounts, Bucs, and Alabama Bulldogs are all still in the hunt for the Conference Championship and Playoff Spot(s). And of course, the teams that aren't in the running would like nothing more than to play spoiler.

[FUBeAR]

While I like FUBeAR’s prediction of a WCU win
Dang…do y’all study anything other than skiing and moonshinin’ at that institution in the Cullowhee suburbs?


FUBeAR said…

Losses to…WCU & ETSU would put Mercer at 8-3 in FCS
would
verb
expressing of the conditional (https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b8f7a68888e6939d&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS952US952&hl=en-US&sxsrf=ADLYWILU8A05GqFxvUYpEvvR_40Tpo6nEQ:172969086 0291&q=conditional&si=ACC90nwZrNcJVJVL0KSmGGq5Ka2Y_iLiu0NAGgySKqcpT9z-xULyyuc3KzqSEe2ycd60IjXqfOhXs28h0DqbpJSa2i3knKr-cunZnyHzthNMsxS7bNZFhAw%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB0rHK0KSJAxUcRzABHauWFKEQyecJegQIQhAP) mood, indicating the consequence of an imagined (https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b8f7a68888e6939d&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS952US952&hl=en-US&sxsrf=ADLYWILU8A05GqFxvUYpEvvR_40Tpo6nEQ:172969086 0291&q=imagined&si=ACC90nx67Z8g0WkBmnrPB4IqtqGviJ5TuQ6_nBV7Bi6sB2q Net1fLOKPHriu5TFdCVR_Ze1h2Ii5tSleoz8gnzzSEyGDX_8aQ WzpbT-LwZ7ekwwAKhRchJM%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB0rHK0KSJAxUcRzABHauWFKEQyecJegQIQhAQ) event or situation.

EXAMPLE: "Mercer would, possibly, lose to WCU IF the Bears don’t show up until 4 minutes after kickoff again.”

[SU DOG]

I see

I’m asking on the behalf of Southern Conference fans because I had some visions of a great playoff game between Southeast Missouri State and a Southern conference team. I also looked at it on a map before and was thinking that’s doesn’t look like an easy place to get to.

When Samford was in the OVC I made several trips up to the Cape. I went up for the football games and even remember going to a basketball game or two in the magnificent Show Me Center at SEMO. I seem to recall, however, that there was another OVC foe that I thought was far more isolated than SEMO and that was Tenn Martin. I currently have a retired SEMO professor that is a very good friend who still lives there. He is visiting relatives near here (he was originally from my stomping grounds in AL) and we are supposed to get together this very afternoon, so the timing of my post here is somewhat of a real coincidence.

[FUBeAR]

is the software engineer part of the pick em LLC? Meaning using quantum computing in attempt to pick FCS games?
FBJ & Associates Quantum Computing, Inc.’s current capabilities, customer lists, and customer use(s)/usage are all classified subjects.

[caribbeanhen]

When Samford was in the OVC I made several trips up to the Cape. I went up for the football games and even remember going to a basketball game or two in the magnificent Show Me Center at SEMO. I seem to recall, however, that there was another OVC foe that I thought was far more isolated than SEMO and that was Tenn Martin. I currently have a retired SEMO professor that is a very good friend who still lives there. He is visiting relatives near here (he was originally from my stomping grounds in AL) and we are supposed to get together this very afternoon, so the timing of my post here is somewhat of a real coincidence.

well maybe it's actually Samford that will be making a trip to the show me state in December.... the dream was clear... The Cape. The actual SoCo team playing out that way in December is about as clear as one of Fubears power rankings

[wcugrad95]

Dang…do y’all study anything other than skiing and moonshinin’ at that institution in the Cullowhee suburbs?


would
verb
expressing of the conditional (https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b8f7a68888e6939d&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS952US952&hl=en-US&sxsrf=ADLYWILU8A05GqFxvUYpEvvR_40Tpo6nEQ:172969086 0291&q=conditional&si=ACC90nwZrNcJVJVL0KSmGGq5Ka2Y_iLiu0NAGgySKqcpT9z-xULyyuc3KzqSEe2ycd60IjXqfOhXs28h0DqbpJSa2i3knKr-cunZnyHzthNMsxS7bNZFhAw%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB0rHK0KSJAxUcRzABHauWFKEQyecJegQIQhAP) mood, indicating the consequence of an imagined (https://www.google.com/search?sca_esv=b8f7a68888e6939d&rlz=1C9BKJA_enUS952US952&hl=en-US&sxsrf=ADLYWILU8A05GqFxvUYpEvvR_40Tpo6nEQ:172969086 0291&q=imagined&si=ACC90nx67Z8g0WkBmnrPB4IqtqGviJ5TuQ6_nBV7Bi6sB2q Net1fLOKPHriu5TFdCVR_Ze1h2Ii5tSleoz8gnzzSEyGDX_8aQ WzpbT-LwZ7ekwwAKhRchJM%3D&expnd=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjB0rHK0KSJAxUcRzABHauWFKEQyecJegQIQhAQ) event or situation.

EXAMPLE: "Mercer would, possibly, lose to WCU IF the Bears don’t show up until 4 minutes after kickoff again.”



I am taking anything I can get from you FOOBs where you even acknowledge we have a chance :)

[OrangeAndBlack]

You gotta give VMI credit for fighting these last couple of games. They had a late leads on Wofford and The Citadel. After chatty, VMI has a home match with Furman. Circle that one!

[FUBeAR]

I am taking anything I can get from you FOOBs where you even acknowledge we have a chance :)
FUBeAR has not even come anywhere close, yet, to opining which Team may win this game; much less declared, in any way, shape, form, manner, or mode that WCU does not “have a chance.”

Do they require a Reading Comprehension Exam to graduate from WCU? They need to.

[Mocs123]

VMI and The Citadel never seem to give up and always seem to play hard no matter their record. I'm sure that has something to do with the military facet of the universities and the type of kids they recruit.

[FUBeAR]

…about as clear as one of Fubears power rankings
Why do you hate science?

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford’s CJ coombes got added to the jerry rice watch list, so that’s good

[caribbeanhen]

Why do you hate science?

S C I E N C E

Massey Ratings - College Football : Southern Rankings (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=14064)

How bout this one?

[FUBeAR]

S C I E N C E

Massey Ratings - College Football : Southern Rankings (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=14064)

How bout this one?
Only 0’s & 1’s there.

The SCIENCE FUBeAR uses forecasts outcomes of GAMES, that will be played to WIN!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmoXNILJskw?si=mdmWInVfllE08Z74

Sure, the 0’s and 1’s are used to derive the forecasts, but it’s ALL about the GAMES!

[ElCid]

S C I E N C E

Massey Ratings - College Football : Southern Rankings (https://masseyratings.com/ranks?s=cf&sub=14064)

How bout this one?

Boom.

[FUBeAR]

Boom.
Is a “Boom” FOLLOWING a total Herm Edwards-assisted mic drop rebuttal of a silly, specious, and illogical premise still a “Boom?”

[gofurman]

Ahhh … hence your question.

Nope, and FUBeAR doesn’t foresee himself getting there any time soon.

Furman, would, now, need a Festivus and SoCon miracle to make the Playoffs and even Mercer’s chances are shaky.

Losses to both should-be (but aren’t, of course) Top 10/Top 15’s WCU & ETSU would put Mercer at 8-3 in FCS if they are even able to secure (currently) expected wins @ VMI and at home against Furman, after 3 consecutive SoCon losses in what are sure to be WARS. At that point, Mercer would most likely be unranked and, even at 8-3 FCS, the Playoff Selection Committee is just not going to put, what could be, an unranked, fading down the stretch, 4th or 5th place SoCon Team in the Playoffs…unless they beat Alabama.

Also, we have a big hoopla planned here in ATL on Quarterfinal Weekend (12/14) as FUBeAR Jr. is ‘walking’ to get his MS in Software Engineering from Georgia Tech. Kinda proud of that young man. Not sure where those smarts came from … the UPS Driver in Bear, DE, maybe? So, if you were being magnanimous and thinking of a Mercer @ SEMO matchup in the Quarters, FUBeAR would just be struggling to catch some of it on his iPhone.

first. CONGRATS to your son. I looked at GTech ( a looong time ago ). Anyway. That’s a VERY prestigious degree. And very practical $$. Congrats !


Second. Furman is NOT making the playoffs. No issue there. Our 3 starters left can’t maintain.

[The Cats]

https://twitter.com/OptaAnalystFCS/status/1849511479810076948

[gofurman]

Wofford’s CJ coombes got added to the jerry rice watch list, so that’s good

as is Furman’s freshman QB Trey Hedden. Not that you want too many freshman…. lol.

but those are the two SoCon representatives nominated for the Jerry Rice Award to best FCS newcomer. Objectively I’m surprised our QB is in there. Too much skill position bias and not enough LOS


not a single OL or DT on the list…. Some DE and LBs and safeties like the guy at Wofford

https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/10/fcs-football-jerry-rice-award-2024-watch-list

[kdinva]

Samford 34; The Citadel 14
ETSU 31; wofford 17
Mercer 42; WCU 34
UTC 35; VMI 17

[FUBeAR]

Mercer 42; WCU 34
Curious … if you have an opinion on the matter … how many of your projected 42 Mercer points will be scored by the Bear’s Defense and/or Special Teams?

[wcugrad95]

Probably 28???

Lots of people hating on Western’s D - especially early on. But they are much better than in past years. Playing in their 3rd scheme in 4 seasons led to some really badly blown assignments, but we seem to be playing a little better over there. The flip-side is Mercer has good offensive players, but I don’t think they are the type of team who runs up lots of offensive scores. They are more methodical, measured, controlled, whatever word you want to use.

So agree - if Mercer gets 40+ I would expect some of those points coming from somewhere other than the offense. If WCU scores 34 it will be a very good showing against that defense.

I would probably expect a game in the 20s. Which of course means this will probably end up a 52-50 shootout 😀

[ElCid]

Samford 37 - The Citadel 24
ETSU 28 - Wofford 20
Mercer 21 - WCU 17
UTC 38 - VMI 7

[Sandlapper Spike]

Don't really have any score predictions, just a general question I'll throw out...

I noticed going over the FCS stats that the SoCon as a whole is very points-averse when teams are in the Red Zone. For example, no team in the league is in the FCS top 40 for offensive Red Zone TD%. Naturally, this is mirrored in defensive stats (with four conference teams in the top 20 for fewest expected points allowed in the RZ).

Any thoughts on that? The SoCon has no teams in the FCS top 20 in PPG. I suppose Red Zone issues could be the main reason for the lack of productivity, but it struck me as a bit odd.

[Mocs123]

For Chattanooga - I can say that Coach Wright is VERY conservative. He's a defense first run the ball on offense mentality and I think he'd like every game to be a low scoring defensive slugfest.

[wcugrad95]

For WCU, we have had a couple of stinkers (like the Campbell and honestly even the Wofford game) on offensive point production. Campbell was primarily due to turnovers, and ROT will tell you that the Terriers are that good on D. Western has also missed quite a few short, shoulda been gimme FGs in multiple games. Add to that we also have historically scored some long TDs and us struggling some in the redzone is somewhat typical for the Catamount style of offense (would guess Samford is similar).

But I would also point to our conference games having so much familiarity that when you get in the smaller window of the RZ other teams know what you are trying to do. Playing the same teams every year lends itself to that.

[SU DOG]

Don't really have any score predictions, just a general question I'll throw out...

I noticed going over the FCS stats that the SoCon as a whole is very points-averse when teams are in the Red Zone. For example, no team in the league is in the FCS top 40 for offensive Red Zone TD%. Naturally, this is mirrored in defensive stats (with four conference teams in the top 20 for fewest expected points allowed in the RZ).

Any thoughts on that? The SoCon has no teams in the FCS top 20 in PPG. I suppose Red Zone issues could be the main reason for the lack of productivity, but it struck me as a bit odd.

This is an interesting question. I am probably wrong, but I will give it a go to try to answer. I think the defenses in the SoCon this year are exceptionally good. I also think the SoCon has extremely good QBs (certainly the top teams)who are getting chunk plays that go downfield and then are faced with a tougher short field in the RZ. It seems to me that there is somewhat a lack of the big bruiser RBs that can always get you a few yards down here like we have seen in the past. Again, I may be totally wrong, but just some thoughts.

[ElCid]

Don't really have any score predictions, just a general question I'll throw out...

I noticed going over the FCS stats that the SoCon as a whole is very points-averse when teams are in the Red Zone. For example, no team in the league is in the FCS top 40 for offensive Red Zone TD%. Naturally, this is mirrored in defensive stats (with four conference teams in the top 20 for fewest expected points allowed in the RZ).

Any thoughts on that? The SoCon has no teams in the FCS top 20 in PPG. I suppose Red Zone issues could be the main reason for the lack of productivity, but it struck me as a bit odd.

Defense? Familiarity? More scores from outside the RZ?

Some of our SOCON teams highest scores have come in OOC games. Most teams, not all have had higher scores during those games. Our conf game scores seem to be a bit light. Well, unless you are Mercer last week. It has got to do with Defense. Conf defenses are stepping up when it matters. I haven't looked at the stats much this year yet. But it seems defenses are better than in recent years. We do have five teams in the top 40 for scoring defense.

[wcugrad95]

@sudog - I know in the past, you have (for entertainment purposes only) found SOCON betting lines/point spreads. Since 5DIMES went away I rarely see FCS games until really the morning of. Have you seen anything for SOCON games this weekend?

[Reign of Terrier]

Probably 28???

Lots of people hating on Western’s D - especially early on. But they are much better than in past years. Playing in their 3rd scheme in 4 seasons led to some really badly blown assignments, but we seem to be playing a little better over there. The flip-side is Mercer has good offensive players, but I don’t think they are the type of team who runs up lots of offensive scores. They are more methodical, measured, controlled, whatever word you want to use.

So agree - if Mercer gets 40+ I would expect some of those points coming from somewhere other than the offense. If WCU scores 34 it will be a very good showing against that defense.

I would probably expect a game in the 20s. Which of course means this will probably end up a 52-50 shootout 

I don’t think it will be a shootout either. Western’s defense is just fine. I would not say it’s spectacular. I think they make big plays at big times, but they let up quite a few yards per play. The scoreboard and turnovers have kind of masked that.

Now, they could also just be improving in general, as teams do, or they could be playing awful offenses the last 3 weeks. I can’t say for certain, it’s one of the more interesting questions and reasons to watch.


Don't really have any score predictions, just a general question I'll throw out...

I noticed going over the FCS stats that the SoCon as a whole is very points-averse when teams are in the Red Zone. For example, no team in the league is in the FCS top 40 for offensive Red Zone TD%. Naturally, this is mirrored in defensive stats (with four conference teams in the top 20 for fewest expected points allowed in the RZ).

Any thoughts on that? The SoCon has no teams in the FCS top 20 in PPG. I suppose Red Zone issues could be the main reason for the lack of productivity, but it struck me as a bit odd.

My guess: The socon has about half the league filled with offenses are (as the kids say) mid at best (Wofford, VMI, Furman, Citadel). Mercer’s defense has also been something of a great leveler, causing everyone to suck at offense. Wofford’s defense has kind of been that way too, forcing turnovers and stops in the red zone specifically. Chattanooga also started the year playing tough opponents and maybe that shows up in the stats too. Western has also had struggles executing at times this year, going up and down the field, but shooting itself in the foot and turning the ball over or kicking field goals.

So it’s not one explanation, but many. I expect the conference to continue to struggle.

[FUBeAR]

Probably 28???

Lots of people hating on Western’s D - especially early on. But they are much better than in past years. Playing in their 3rd scheme in 4 seasons led to some really badly blown assignments, but we seem to be playing a little better over there. The flip-side is Mercer has good offensive players, but I don’t think they are the type of team who runs up lots of offensive scores. They are more methodical, measured, controlled, whatever word you want to use.

So agree - if Mercer gets 40+ I would expect some of those points coming from somewhere other than the offense. If WCU scores 34 it will be a very good showing against that defense.

I would probably expect a game in the 20s. Which of course means this will probably end up a 52-50 shootout 
Oh…you will (most likely) disagree, of course, but the more recent success of the WCU Defense has nothing to do with “scheme” and little to do with strategy/tactics of Coaching. The key to that success is the athleticism of WCU’s DB’s.

They very much remind FUBeAR of the SC State Team FUBeAR faced in his final Football game as a Player. They were OK up front, but their DB’s (3 of 4 became NFL’ers, FUBeAR believes) were able to successfully play Press Cover 0 on FU’s Retrievers EVERY play. That meant they could also put 7, 8, or even 9 (in those days) in the box…and, unless the QB is a top-tier run threat, the O is always outnumbered.

Those Bulldogs completely stoned FUBeAR’s Paladins. Shutout and ain’t peed a drop! Future NFL RB & 3-time SoCon PoY gained 18 yds on 9 carries, 240-pound 4.5/4.6 40 future NFL FB had 33 yds on 9 carries, and Future NFL 215-pound QB had 7 yds on 9 carries…against just an OK D-Front, facing an O that had avg’d rushing for 257 ypg.

So…regardless of how good Mercer has been at running the ball, they MUST be able to throw in order to keep 7 or 8 out of the box - can’t block more hats than you have hats to block ‘em.

So…that begs 2 questions…

1) Mercer has 3 WR’s that average about 6-2 205, in addition to their 2 or 3 scatty-quick ones. Can WCU’s not-that-big (5-11 183 Avg) set of DB’s man up on and stone Mercer’s bigger WR’s or will they have to play some Cover 2, 3, and/or Quarters…which means they won’t be able to stack the box…which means Mercer MIGHT be able to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Gonzales & Company on the sidelines?

2) Mercer’s QB situation is a MASSIVE question mark.
a. Will injured-last-month-and-reinjured-last-week QB1, DJ Smith, be able to play AND, if so, will he be 100% - able to fully push off on passes and use, to full effect, the speed, quickness, and agility that enable him to extend plays and be a threat (that MUST be defended) to run (designed & scrambling)? And, even then, would/will Smith be able to up his passing game to account for WCU’s Secondary’s athleticism. They don’t make many of ‘em like that in the MS JUCO league.

b. If Smith is OUT or plays, but proves to be limited (by his injury), and unable to get it done, can QB2, True FR, 6-6 225, Whitt Newbauer, get the job done? He has shown, in 2nd half appearances in Mercer’s last 2 games, that he has a nice arm, good accuracy, solid pocket presence, and an ability to use his legs - differently than Smith - but still rather effectively. Also, although FUBeAR’s Alma Mater is in the league, they don’t make many DB’s like WCU has in the NCHSAA 4-A Cap 6 Conference.

Also…Mercer has had 2 key OL injuries. Both may return to action/full-time action this week. Not having these 2 Players - 1 OUT and 1 only played Part-time - DEFINITELY hurt Mercer’s O in the run game and in PassPro @ Samford. Their play-status WILL matter.

Finally, Mercer’s RB2, who is also their #1 threat as a Retriever out of the backfield, did not play @ Samford. FUBeAR doesn’t think this was an injury situation, but does not know why he did not play. It was referenced very briefly in Mercer’s Head Coach’s show last night, in a way that FUBeAR inferred he will play this week, but it was far from an overt statement of such. Whether or not he is available WILL matter also.

REBUTTAL?

[wcugrad95]

I actually agree with much of what you say FUBeAR. Outside of the disaster of the Campbell game, our DBs and Safeties have been really good in coverage and better-than-normal at actually tackling people. CJ Williams is an all-conference type of CB, we have some other good ones, and we have some depth at Safety to run more guys in and out to stay fresh. Our D-line has always been historically too small, and while we are still smaller we have gotten a little stronger and bigger there. Running up the middle used to be the design against Western's defense but we have been mostly solid between the tackles. Our LBs are very small - more like extra Safeties if I am being honest. But the are fast and athletic.

Our biggest problems have come with either a really good/tall WR (Campbell) just being able to catch balls over our physical DBs, or more commonly if a team can get into our secondary running the football - often the QB - because we are in lots of man/press coverage with DBs downfield and their backs turned. Mercer has plenty of really good athletes on offense to cause all kinds of problems for WCU's D. But so far this year I haven't seen the Bears get real creative offensively. That being said, I have seen the Bears get creative against Western in numerous games in the past 10 seasons.

I agree in this discussion the key will be Mercer's QB situation, their ability to force WCU into more standard defensive schemes (Western will line up in some very confusing-looking sets if you let them), and honestly if your QB gets loose it has proven to be bad for the Western D (see Montana and Citadel).

I think it is an entirely different conversation when we flip to the other side and talk about Mercer's stout D against WCU's O. Mercer makes teams 1-dimensional. Although it is a dimenision Western is good at and actually prefers, if we can't run the ball at all and Cole is off even just a little bit, that can make for a very long day for the Cats as Mercer will just send the house and force mistakes.

[caribbeanhen]

Oh…you will (most likely) disagree, of course, but the more recent success of the WCU Defense has nothing to do with “scheme” and little to do with strategy/tactics of Coaching. The key to that success is the athleticism of WCU’s DB’s.

They very much remind FUBeAR of the SC State Team FUBeAR faced in his final Football game as a Player. They were OK up front, but their DB’s (3 of 4 became NFL’ers, FUBeAR believes) were able to successfully play Press Cover 0 on FU’s Retrievers EVERY play. That meant they could also put 7, 8, or even 9 (in those days) in the box…and, unless the QB is a top-tier run threat, the O is always outnumbered.

Those Bulldogs completely stoned FUBeAR’s Paladins. Shutout and ain’t peed a drop! Future NFL RB & 3-time SoCon PoY gained 18 yds on 9 carries, 240-pound 4.5/4.6 40 future NFL FB had 33 yds on 9 carries, and Future NFL 215-pound QB had 7 yds on 9 carries…against just an OK D-Front, facing an O that had avg’d rushing for 257 ypg.

So…regardless of how good Mercer has been at running the ball, they MUST be able to throw in order to keep 7 or 8 out of the box - can’t block more hats than you have hats to block ‘em.

So…that begs 2 questions…

1) Mercer has 3 WR’s that average about 6-2 205, in addition to their 2 or 3 scatty-quick ones. Can WCU’s not-that-big (5-11 183 Avg) set of DB’s man up on and stone Mercer’s bigger WR’s or will they have to play some Cover 2, 3, and/or Quarters…which means they won’t be able to stack the box…which means Mercer MIGHT be able to run the ball, control the clock, and keep Gonzales & Company on the sidelines?

2) Mercer’s QB situation is a MASSIVE question mark.
a. Will injured-last-month-and-reinjured-last-week QB1, DJ Smith, be able to play AND, if so, will he be 100% - able to fully push off on passes and use, to full effect, the speed, quickness, and agility that enable him to extend plays and be a threat (that MUST be defended) to run (designed & scrambling)? And, even then, would/will Smith be able to up his passing game to account for WCU’s Secondary’s athleticism. They don’t make many of ‘em like that in the MS JUCO league.

b. If Smith is OUT or plays, but proves to be limited (by his injury), and unable to get it done, can QB2, True FR, 6-6 225, Whitt Newbauer, get the job done? He has shown, in 2nd half appearances in Mercer’s last 2 games, that he has a nice arm, good accuracy, solid pocket presence, and an ability to use his legs - differently than Smith - but still rather effectively. Also, although FUBeAR’s Alma Mater is in the league, they don’t make many DB’s like WCU has in the NCHSAA 4-A Cap 6 Conference.

Also…Mercer has had 2 key OL injuries. Both may return to action/full-time action this week. Not having these 2 Players - 1 OUT and 1 only played Part-time - DEFINITELY hurt Mercer’s O in the run game and in PassPro @ Samford. Their play-status WILL matter.

Finally, Mercer’s RB2, who is also their #1 threat as a Retriever out of the backfield, did not play @ Samford. FUBeAR doesn’t think this was an injury situation, but does not know why he did not play. It was referenced very briefly in Mercer’s Head Coach’s show last night, in a way that FUBeAR interpreted he will play this week, but it was far from an overt statement of such. Whether or not he is available WILL matter also.

REBUTTAL?

what the holy heck …

after C H said that it’s more about the Jimmy’s and Joe’s and not necessarily the Ex’s & Oh’s …… fubar did not necessarily agree

when C H said any average Coach can call an average play, but it’s talent that takes it all the way .. Foob ignores

[FUBeAR]

what the holy heck …

after C H said that it’s more about the Jimmy’s and Joe’s and not necessarily the Ex’s & Oh’s …… fubar did not necessarily agree

when C H said any average Coach can call an average play, but it’s talent that takes it all the way .. Foob ignores

1) You read too much FUBeAR
2) You read FUBeAR too closely
3) You should NEVER take anything FUBeAR writes seriously
b) Macro-analysis vs. Micro-analysis … different kettle of frogs.

[Milktruck74]

Don't really have any score predictions, just a general question I'll throw out...

I noticed going over the FCS stats that the SoCon as a whole is very points-averse when teams are in the Red Zone. For example, no team in the league is in the FCS top 40 for offensive Red Zone TD%. Naturally, this is mirrored in defensive stats (with four conference teams in the top 20 for fewest expected points allowed in the RZ).

Any thoughts on that? The SoCon has no teams in the FCS top 20 in PPG. I suppose Red Zone issues could be the main reason for the lack of productivity, but it struck me as a bit odd.

I'll take a stab at this using some Moc's Data points. First, as my fellow Moc pointed out, we have a very calculated and conservative HC in Chattanooga. Rusty would just assume beat someone by a FG than by 30. The Mocs practice clock management football. Take the Mercer Game out of the mix, and against FCS opponents, the Mocs have held the ball over 35 mins per game. IF you only have the rock for 24 minutes, you really don't have too many opportunities to get in the Redzone..or score. Hence the Moc's 8.8 PPG given up to FCS schools. Additionally, there are 4 teams in the SoCon that give up less that 21 PPG. There are exceptional Defenses in the SoCon.

As far as offense goes, the Mocs have a pretty decent crew over on that side of the ball with the leading rusher, the number 1 ,2, & 9, receivers in the league, a QB that has a 143.9 QBR vs FCS and averages 240 ypg on 27 attempts per game.

Now, would all those offensive numbers be better if our play calling was an attempt to score every play? Probably, but the Offense has a job to chew up the clock and keep the opponents offense on the bench... is this true for every team in the league? No, but it is true for many.

[SU DOG]

wcugrad95 please ck your PM.

[wcugrad95]

Because I am sitting on a call at work for the past couple of hours with nothing better to do, I went a little farther inside the WCU and Mercer numbers looking only at SOCON games. A little skewed as the Bears have played Chattanooga, but there are 2 common opponents. Clearly the Bears win with defense and an efficient offense and WCU like the past few years wants to use our weapons out in space to pick up lots of yards.

Passing Offense:
WCU - 93 of 133 (.700) for 1204 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs - avg 31 of 44.33 for 401.33
MU - 71 of 105 (.676) for 865 yards with 5 TDs and 6 INTs - avg of 17.75 of 26.25 for 216.25
* Might be easy to overlook, but Mercer had 352 yards passing against Samford on Saturday

Rushing Offense:
WCU - 102 for 469 (4.6 YPC) with 6 TDs - avg of 34 for 156.33
Mercer - 166 for 533 (3.2 YPC) with 6 TDs - avg 41.5 for 133.25
* WCU has lost 2 fumbles while Mercer has lost 4

Total Offense: WCU with 557.66 and Mercer with 339.5

Passing Defense:
WCU - 92 of 102 (.520) for 610 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs - avg 17.67 of 34 for 203.33
Mercer - 74 of 148 (.500) for 1103 yards with 5 TDs and 9 INTs - avg 18.5 of 37 for 275.75
* Mercer has 10 sacks and WCU has 8 in league games

Rushing Defense:
WCU - 117 for 468 (4 YPC) with 3 TDs - avg of 39 for 156
Mercer - 99 for 160 (1.62 YPC) with 3 TDs - avg 24.75 for 40
* Holy crap - Mercer has given up only 160 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS in their 4 SOCON games!!!
** Mercer has 25 TFLs vs WCU's 24

Total Defense: WCU gives up 359.33 and Mercer gives up 315.75

3rd/4th down:
WCU converted 24 of 49 (.490) and has given up 27 of 62 (.435)
Mercer converted 23 of 60 (.383) and has given up 14 of 63 (.222)

Turnovers:
WCU has committed 4 (2 INTs and 2 Fumbles) and taken it away 4 (3 INTs and 1 Fumble)
Mercer has committed 10 (6 INTs and 4 Fumbles) and taken it away 10 (9 INTs and 1 Fumble)
* Mercer has multiple defensive TDs on their 9 picks

What does all that tell me? Hell if I know. Special teams have been a little bit of an adventure for WCU (missed FGs, blocked punt and some other close calls, gave up a KO return to Furman) where Mercer normally is very good in that phase. Turnovers can obviously be the great equalizer - probably cost WCU the game against Campbell and Mercer the game against Samford. Mercer gets lots of them, but they also commit a lot of them, too.

Just looking at the 2 common opponents, easy to see that WCU ran and threw the ball better against Woffy and Citadel, and Mercer bottled both of those teams up on defense. But Western's numbers outside of losing contain on Citadel's QBs multple times were really not too shabby.

Most important stat is the scoreboard where WCU has scored 103 points (34.3) and given up 53 (17.67) and Mercer has scored 105 (26.25) and given up 82 (20.5). Western's 52 point outburst and the funky 55 Mercer gave up to Samford factors in heavily in those figures. Mercer has held Wofford and Citadel to 24 total points while WCU gave up 33 to those two teams.

So in true rocket-science fashion, I'd say the team who doesn't make stupid mistakes (penalties, turnovers, etc.) and/or the team who gets that 1 or 2 special plays on special teams (and special could be good or bad) wins this game. And if Mercer keeps up that 3rd/4th down defense of getting off the field almost every time (.222) that would be huge in Mercer's favor.

I know - that is going way out on a limb.

[ElCid]

Because I am sitting on a call at work for the past couple of hours with nothing better to do, I went a little farther inside the WCU and Mercer numbers looking only at SOCON games. A little skewed as the Bears have played Chattanooga, but there are 2 common opponents. Clearly the Bears win with defense and an efficient offense and WCU like the past few years wants to use our weapons out in space to pick up lots of yards.

Passing Offense:
WCU - 93 of 133 (.700) for 1204 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs - avg 31 of 44.33 for 401.33
MU - 71 of 105 (.676) for 865 yards with 5 TDs and 6 INTs - avg of 17.75 of 26.25 for 216.25
* Might be easy to overlook, but Mercer had 352 yards passing against Samford on Saturday

Rushing Offense:
WCU - 102 for 469 (4.6 YPC) with 6 TDs - avg of 34 for 156.33
Mercer - 166 for 533 (3.2 YPC) with 6 TDs - avg 41.5 for 133.25
* WCU has lost 2 fumbles while Mercer has lost 4

Total Offense: WCU with 557.66 and Mercer with 339.5

Passing Defense:
WCU - 92 of 102 (.520) for 610 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs - avg 17.67 of 34 for 203.33
Mercer - 74 of 148 (.500) for 1103 yards with 5 TDs and 9 INTs - avg 18.5 of 37 for 275.75
* Mercer has 10 sacks and WCU has 8 in league games

Rushing Defense:
WCU - 117 for 468 (4 YPC) with 3 TDs - avg of 39 for 156
Mercer - 99 for 160 (1.62 YPC) with 3 TDs - avg 24.75 for 40
* Holy crap - Mercer has given up only 160 TOTAL RUSHING YARDS in their 4 SOCON games!!!
** Mercer has 25 TFLs vs WCU's 24

Total Defense: WCU gives up 359.33 and Mercer gives up 315.75

3rd/4th down:
WCU converted 24 of 49 (.490) and has given up 27 of 62 (.435)
Mercer converted 23 of 60 (.383) and has given up 14 of 63 (.222)

Turnovers:
WCU has committed 4 (2 INTs and 2 Fumbles) and taken it away 4 (3 INTs and 1 Fumble)
Mercer has committed 10 (6 INTs and 4 Fumbles) and taken it away 10 (9 INTs and 1 Fumble)
* Mercer has multiple defensive TDs on their 9 picks

What does all that tell me? Hell if I know. Special teams have been a little bit of an adventure for WCU (missed FGs, blocked punt and some other close calls, gave up a KO return to Furman) where Mercer normally is very good in that phase. Turnovers can obviously be the great equalizer - probably cost WCU the game against Campbell and Mercer the game against Samford. Mercer gets lots of them, but they also commit a lot of them, too.

Just looking at the 2 common opponents, easy to see that WCU ran and threw the ball better against Woffy and Citadel, and Mercer bottled both of those teams up on defense. But Western's numbers outside of losing contain on Citadel's QBs multple times were really not too shabby.

Most important stat is the scoreboard where WCU has scored 103 points (34.3) and given up 53 (17.67) and Mercer has scored 105 (26.25) and given up 82 (20.5). Western's 52 point outburst and the funky 55 Mercer gave up to Samford factors in heavily in those figures. Mercer has held Wofford and Citadel to 24 total points while WCU gave up 33 to those two teams.

So in true rocket-science fashion, I'd say the team who doesn't make stupid mistakes (penalties, turnovers, etc.) and/or the team who gets that 1 or 2 special plays on special teams (and special could be good or bad) wins this game. And if Mercer keeps up that 3rd/4th down defense of getting off the field almost every time (.222) that would be huge in Mercer's favor.

I know - that is going way out on a limb.

Just score 4 TDs in the first 6 minutes of the game and you will be ok. No need to overthink it. Samford did it.

[caribbeanhen]

1) You read too much FUBeAR
2) You read FUBeAR too closely
3) You should NEVER take anything FUBeAR writes seriously
b) Macro-analysis vs. Micro-analysis … different kettle of frogs.

1) My Mother used to tell me I was reading "Cracked" magazine way to much back in the 70's, but reading FuBeaR has flooded the old memory
2) No, only when he's funny
3) best advice for anyone new here, the real trick is being able to learn when he is being serious especially with the whole Jimmy and Joe argument
4) blasphemy, No Puerto Rican would dare to eat a frog as the Coqui is the Bald Eagle of the Isla, most of us that leave the Island have play recorded Coqui serenades just to fall asleep at night

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR apologizes for his tardiness in posting his picks this week. He’s been waiting for updates from inside the Den in Maconga all day, but he’s ready to make his picks now, after fielding that final phone call…

SOCON SCHEDULE & FUBeAR’s Picks (due to the late hour, FUBeAR’s Picks’ narratives will be abbreviated this week. Please just cope with your disappointment privately)
All games are Saturday, 10/26. All times are ET


AWAY
HOME
TIME
PROJECTED


SAM
CIT
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54679_CIT-vs-SAM_20241026/stats/)
CIT will do what CIT does in ChuckTown, but the confidence injection Samford rec’d last week by defeating Mercer was ‘B12 on steroids.’ They will be able to stop the bellhops from stealing their luggage and they will put points on the Half-a-Stadium scoreboard.

Samford 41 - CIT 21


ETSU
WOF
2P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54691_WOF-vs-ETSU_20241026/stats/)
Odom might be back and Woffy’s strengths will match ETSU’s. This game will be tighter than most expect, but the LandPirates will avoid running aground, while looking ahead to next week @ Mercer, and survive some turbulent non-waters in SparkleCity.

ETSU 24 - Wofford 21


WCU
MER
3:30P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54720_MER-vs-WCU_20241026/stats/)
This is the BIG one this week! It cannot be overstated how important this game is to BOTH Teams. FUBeAR has seen Mercer play in person 3x and he’s watched all of their games. He’s also watched all or some of each of WCU’s games. FUBeAR knows these are 2 Top 10 Teams when at full strength. Mercer’s QB situation is like a toddler’s birthday balloon at this point. We’ll be able to grab that string tomorrow though and see what’s inside. Honestly, FUBeAR could go on, and on, and on about this game, but he won’t. Mercer’s O, surprisingly to some, is able to effectively move the ball on the ground and through the air, while WCU completes some BIG passes, but bottom-line, Mercer’s Defense and Special Teams provide too much of an impact for WCU to upset the Bears…unless Mercer is down 21-0 4 minutes into the game…again.

Mercer 38 - WCU 28


VMI
CHAT
4P (https://nextgen.soconsports.com/fb/game/54722_CHAT-vs-VMI_20241026/stats/)
Chatt 31 - VMI 3


Furman taking a well-deserved and definitively needed week off.

FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Rankings

FUBeAR must apologize for his tardiness in getting his Power Rankings posted this week. Hopefully, Vegas has not had to shut down operations during the delay. FUBeAR was awaiting a couple of return calls from Indianapolis and Spartanburg before he could make his final decisions and post his Rankings this week. So, without further adieux…

FUBeAR, ever a Bear of SCIENCE, will choose to, once again this week, not rely on his own understanding, and, instead, subjugate his own feelings and opinions to the empirical knowledge of the EXPERTS.




FUBeAR’s
Power
Rank


SoCon
Team


Massey
Projected
Overall Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon Record


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Win %


Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish


Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details




1

Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)

10-2


7-1


0.875


1

Loss to Samford



2

Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)

9-3


7-1


0.875


2

Loss to Mercer



3

Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)

7-4


5-2


0.714


3

Losses to ETSU, Chatt



4

W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)

6-6


5-3


0.625


4

Losses to Mercer, Chatt, Samford



5

ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)

7-5


5-3


0.625


5

Losses to Chatt, Mercer, WCU



6

Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)

4-8


2-6


0.250


7

Wins over CIT, VMI



7

Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)

3-9


1-7


0.125


8

Win over VMI



8

VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)

0-11


0-8


0.000


9

0’fer / 0’fer



















UNR

Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)

4-7


3-4


0.429


6

Wins over CIT, VMI, Woff



Astute and observant readers will note something a might different about FUBeAR’s Power Rankings this week.

FUBeAR learned over the weekend, during his Homecoming pilgrimage to Travelers Rest, that Furman had respectfully and sincerely applied to the NCAA and the SoCon seeking a Team Redshirt for the 2024 Season.

Those money-grubbing NCAA incompetents in Indy and those heartless souls (AKA Wofford Fans & beneficiaries) in SparkleCity, without just cause, denied the Paladin plea however and here we are.

Once FUBeAR confirmed the facts of the matter, late this afternoon, with Messiuer’s Baker and Cross, he had an agonizing decision to make.

FUBeAR, unlike, the merciless tyrants in power, out of an abundance of caution for the fine Student Athletes at Furman, has chosen to recognize the thoughtful Paladin petition and will, now, exempt Furman from his Power Rankings for the balance of the 2024 Season.

Please respect this difficult heartfelt decision.

[Milktruck74]

All that discussion about SoCon Defenses earlier in this thread...with about 40 mins of football played and 4 of the SoCon Defenses are pitching shutouts. I think that wont last long...maybe one of these defenses scores. Maybe Wofford...

And two of the best defenses in the league haven't even started yet!

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford’s defense is elite at forcing turnovers and is a menace defending the pass, but we are the worst offense of all time, so it doesn’t matter.

[Reign of Terrier]

You don’t necessarily want to do things like the p4, but if we played in it, Wofford’s OC would have already been fired mid season. Unfortunately, we don’t, and the OC is the head coach.

[Milktruck74]

Wofford’s defense is elite at forcing turnovers and is a menace defending the pass, but we are the worst offense of all time, so it doesn’t matter.

Elite defenses can be elite for 27 minutes. They can be good for 31 minutes. and they get real average when they are on the field for 34 minutes. if woffy had any ability to move the chains and eat clock...they would be in that Elite category. Unfortunatly, they can't make plays for that long.

I'll say they are talented, but elite is different. They may even have Elite level talent. But....Elite Defenses win games...with help from the O..and woffy O isnt helping them.

[Reign of Terrier]

Elite defenses can be elite for 27 minutes. They can be good for 31 minutes. and they get real average when they are on the field for 34 minutes. if woffy had any ability to move the chains and eat clock...they would be in that Elite category. Unfortunatly, they can't make plays for that long.

I'll say they are talented, but elite is different. They may even have Elite level talent. But....Elite Defenses win games...with help from the O..and woffy O isnt helping them.

Cool story, but I said elite at forcing turnovers. We were fifth in the country going into this one and then forced 2 more. We are elite at forcing turnovers.

[Milktruck74]

Cool story, but I said elite at forcing turnovers. We were fifth in the country going into this one and then forced 2 more. We are elite at forcing turnovers.

YEah, they got a fumble recovery against my Mocs..but My Mocs were 4/4 in Redzone scoring. 8/14 on 3rd down conversions. and 30 pts from the offense...all on an elite defense.

I get it, Wofford has a talented D...but I would also challenge that their Defense has more opportunities for takeaways, since they are on the field for longewr than any oither defense.

[Reign of Terrier]

YEah, they got a fumble recovery against my Mocs..but My Mocs were 4/4 in Redzone scoring. 8/14 on 3rd down conversions. and 30 pts from the offense...all on an elite defense.

I get it, Wofford has a talented D...but I would also challenge that their Defense has more opportunities for takeaways, since they are on the field for longewr than any oither defense.
odd that you are making arguments against claims no one is making

[Milktruck74]

odd that you are making arguments against claims no one is making

Lighten up Francis!

I'm not trying to dispute your numbers of takeaways. I'm just saying I watched an AVERAGE SoCon defense play against my Mocs last week. And I'm pointing out that the more time spent on the field impacts defenses...dramatically.

[Milktruck74]

And back to the defense issue...after 4quarters, the 4 SoCon defenses have given up 2 FGs. I would have thought that ETSUx and Sammy would have been able to get into the zone a few times in the first half...Let's see what second half adjustments look like. I

[Mocs123]

Wofford’s defense is elite at forcing turnovers and is a menace defending the pass, but we are the worst offense of all time, so it doesn’t matter.

Did you see Tom Arth's Chattanooga offenses? We had elite defenses but were terrible on offense.

[Reign of Terrier]

Did you see Tom Arth's Chattanooga offenses? We had elite defenses but were terrible on offense.

Wofford averages less points per game in the last 2 seasons than Arth’s offenses. And we will finish with less wins, easily.

[ElCid]

My Dogs just put it away. Unbelievable. We needed turnovers, but got it done. Less than 6 minutes to go with 18 point lead.

[BearDownMU]

I swear we've missed more tackles in the first half of this game than we have all season combined.

[kdinva]

VMI 10; UTC 7, early in 2nd.

[kdinva]

My Dogs just put it away. Unbelievable. We needed turnovers, but got it done. Less than 6 minutes to go with 18 point lead.

Nice win for the Bulldogs.........a week after Samford dusted Mercer's hide......SoCon turning upside down, maybe only a two bid conference....

[Milktruck74]

Another SOCON saturday so far!!!!

[Milktruck74]

Congrats to the dogs from Charleston In winning the Michal Vick Bowl.

[ElCid]

Nice win for the Bulldogs.........a week after Samford dusted Mercer's hide......SoCon turning upside down, maybe only a two bid conference....

Crazy. Never would have picked it. We just scored again for good measure. 28-3 Huge win. Our punter killed it. 55 yards average. Our FG kicker needs work, missed three, one short, two long.

[Mocs123]

Congrats to the Bucs and Low Country Bulldogs

For whatever reason I always see the Keydets play the Mocs and they always look so much better than their record. I'm not sure if VMI just plays really well against the Mocs, or the Mocs just play really poorly against the Keydets.

[kdinva]

VMI forced a 4th down against UTC, but the VMI DT takes the ball and drops it on a UTC ball carrier's belly, drawing a five yard flag......4 plays later, UTC touchdown

14-10 Mocs, 4 minutes 'till halftime

[Mocs123]

Samford has always been such a Jekyl and Hyde team under Hatcher - they can look amazing and beat anyone - (and Mercer's D is pretty darn good) or they can look outright pedestrian.

[Reign of Terrier]

The only thing you can reliably bet on with Hatcher is that he can and will beat Wofford. Every year.

[Milktruck74]

Congrats to the Bucs and Low Country Bulldogs

For whatever reason I always see the Keydets play the Mocs and they always look so much better than their record. I'm not sure if VMI just plays really well against the Mocs, or the Mocs just play really poorly against the Keydets.


YES

[Milktruck74]

And Mercy figures it out and now leads WCU...feeling like the last team with the ball will win this one. All the defense was played in the first half.

[Milktruck74]

Given time, Cole Gonzales throws a near perfect ball....that is all!

[Mocs123]

Lots of young players for the Keydets but they seem to be plenty talented. Rocco is an interesting hire as he'd had success at Liberty, Richmond, and Delaware - but VMI is a hard place to recruit to and win at. Not having a graduate school hurts them too.

[OrangeAndBlack]

2nd game in a row that coach Jacob’s has elected to punt on 4th and 1 at midfield. And both times the opponent reaches midfield nearly immediately. Championship teams can get a 4th and 1! I wish that would change next time it comes up.

Edit: western scores a TD after this decision so quickly. Samford did the same. It must change! Even if you don’t convert on 4th down, it’s not the end of the world. But you gotta try!

[Mocs123]

I tend to agree OrangeAndBlack - midfield is really no mans land as it's too far for a FG and a punt just doesn't gain you much. We've seen the Mocs QB pooch punt a few times in previous years from midfield, but statistically I'd think you'd be better off going for it, though it's a huge momentum swing if you don't get it.

[wcugrad95]

Hats off to Mercer. They have not been explosive on Offense this season outside of the Presby game, yet they get big play after big play against Western’s D. Mercer was literally 2-11 on 3rd and 4th down tries but still scored 44 points.

Looking like a familiar pattern for WCU. Offense is now humming, but if we don’t score 40+ against good teams it will be hard to win.

Hope Cole is ok. Zion Booker with a very strong game. WCU had 187 yards rushing when Mercer had only given up 160 in 4 SOCON GAMES TOTAL!!! You have to win games when you score 34 and gain 582 yards. And WCU found a way not to.

[Milktruck74]

Hats off to Mercer. They have not been explosive on Offense this season outside of the Presby game, yet they get big play after big play against Western’s D. Mercer was literally 2-11 on 3rd and 4th down tries but still scored 44 points.

Looking like a familiar pattern for WCU. Offense is now humming, but if we don’t score 40+ against good teams it will be hard to win.

Hope Cole is ok. Zion Booker with a very strong game. WCU had 187 yards rushing when Mercer had only given up 160 in 4 SOCON GAMES TOTAL!!! You have to win games when you score 34 and gain 582 yards. And WCU found a way not to.

Hated to see CG go down late. Hope his is well...and that is hard to say when my mocs are playing them next week...but I do! THe Targeting call in the second half will hurt WCU next week too. Based on recent trends, when WCU loses next week they will only have 10 points...so not on your Defense!!!

[OrangeAndBlack]

Well wishes to CG. He played an excellent game and showed why he was preseason POY.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Samford is the epitome of “home field matters”.
home: 3-0
road: 0-4

[Milktruck74]

MErcer, Chattanooga, and ETSU should all get a little bump in tomorrows polls.

[kdinva]

Samford 34; The Citadel 14
ETSU 31; wofford 17
Mercer 42; WCU 34
UTC 35; VMI 17

I WAS CLOSE

[OrangeAndBlack]

I WAS CLOSE

very close! And you took some flack for that pick!

[wcugrad95]

Certainly not the game I expected. I was surprised at the amount of offense from both teams. I thought it might either be somewhat of a blowout if Mercer’s D locked down WCU like they have some other teams, or it might be a game in the 20s if Western could find some success offensively and a special teams or non-offensive TD might be the difference.

No way I expected BOTH teams to get well over 500 yards and score 30+. This looked eerily like Western’s game against Montana. Get up by 17 early on, then fade in the 2nd half. Good teams put teams away when they get that lead and that is what Bell has been talking about the last couple of weeks.

Cats have to regroup - still have Chattanooga and ETSU the next 2 weeks. And the Bears will have to get back after it with another dangerous (but different) Bucs offense coming in. Next week’s games will go a long way in determining the SOCON championship now that we have 4 teams with only 1 league loss and will only have 2 after next Saturday.

[caribbeanhen]

VMI 10; UTC 7, early in 2nd.

Billy Cosh would look good back at VMI, what he’s been able to do at Stony Brook is a career launcher.

I tried to warn you about Rocco

[caribbeanhen]

Crazy. Never would have picked it. We just scored again for good measure. 28-3 Huge win. Our punter killed it. 55 yards average. Our FG kicker needs work, missed three, one short, two long.

saw a bit of the game early, Samford looked like they were running in quicksand

[FUBeAR]

Certainly not the game I expected. I was surprised at the amount of offense from both teams. I thought it might either be somewhat of a blowout if Mercer’s D locked down WCU like they have some other teams, or it might be a game in the 20s if Western could find some success offensively and a special teams or non-offensive TD might be the difference.

No way I expected BOTH teams to get well over 500 yards and score 30+. This looked eerily like Western’s game against Montana. Get up by 17 early on, then fade in the 2nd half. Good teams put teams away when they get that lead and that is what Bell has been talking about the last couple of weeks.
.
You really don’t need to waste your valuable time cogitating on how games are going to go. All you need to do is wait for and read FUBeAR’s projections and the truth will be revealed to you, in advance of the game…



WCU
MER
Mercer’s O, surprisingly to some (lookin’ at you, 95), is able to effectively move the ball on the ground (314 yds) and through the air (234), while WCU completes some BIG passes (about 3 50-ish yards and 5 or 6 20-ish and at least 3 DPI’s on Mercer on deep balls), but bottom-line, Mercer’s Defense (4 sacks, 7 TFL’s, 8 Pass Brkup’s, 4 QBH’s) and Special Teams (3/3 FG, 5/5 XP’s, over 52 avg punt, over 30 yds avg KOR & over 10 yds avg PR), provide too much of an impact for WCU to upset the Bears…unless Mercer is down 21-0 4 minutes into the game…again (it took over 9 minutes for Mercer to get down 14-0…way better than down 21 in 4 minutes :D).

Mercer 38 - WCU 28 (10 point spread was on the money; a couple of TD’s FUBeAR had envisioned became FG’s)



FUBeAR did have a few advantages though…
- FUBeAR knew QB Newbauer was getting all the practice reps with the 1’s this past week. That’s not something Newbauer has ever done before then…and that matters on Saturday.
- FUBeAR also knew that Mercer was getting their #1 off-season ‘acquisition,’ LT #70 Xavier Jennings (chose Mercer over multiple P5 offers), on the field for the 1st time all season. He made a HUGE difference in Mercer’s run game and in sealing off that blind-side pass rush. Though having to work into game-shape and, hopefully, not nicked up again, he will continue to make a difference up front. Appears to be ‘as advertised.’
- FUBeAR also knew Mercer’s RT was OK…been a little in-and-out since he was ‘nicked’ at Woffy. He’s also a very good OLman.

With a healthy, young, talented QB getting tons of practice reps with the gameday Retrievers and working behind an OL that gives him a confidence boost AND a STRONG run game that further relieves the pressure on him, Mercer’s O was probably 30-40% upgraded from the O that took the field in B’Ham. #OLLM. When RB2 / #1 out-of-the-backfield Retriever, Coard, returns (has not played the past 2 weeks), that upgrade kicks up another 5-10%.

Your call on the WCU @ Montana game similarities is spot on. FUBeAR was also thinking that yesterday.

With Gonzales healthy and playing for WCU, and with Mercer (finally) having a full-strength OL, both are Top 10 FCS Teams, as is Chattanooga. Maybe higher than Top 10… And…ETSU may be in that realm as well.

[FUBeAR]

Our FG kicker needs work, missed three, one short, two long.
By “work,” do you mean “The Ten” will go to “work” on him and he’ll be taking “The Walk of Shame” before the end of this weekend? :D

[Sandlapper Spike]

Our kicker has had a pretty good year overall. Had a tough day yesterday, but to be honest the first one is on the head coach (which I'm sure Drayton would admit).

It must have been a difficult day for placekicking in general (Samford missed a 21-yarder), unless of course you were wearing a kilt.

[ElCid]

Our kicker has had a pretty good year overall. Had a tough day yesterday, but to be honest the first one is on the head coach (which I'm sure Drayton would admit).

It must have been a difficult day for placekicking in general (Samford missed a 21-yarder), unless of course you were wearing a kilt.

Nice summary of the game on your site. It was a very good performance by our Bulldogs!

[SU DOG]

My sincere CONGRATULATIONS to The Citadel Football Team. That was truly a well-prepared team against a team that totally wasn't.