AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 8, Fall 2024

[Preferred Walk-On]

Just got back from the Fargodome a little bit ago. Putting together the sheet now, but here is a live updating version and just want to get this out there to not delay the poll opening any further. CLICK HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K43NO5rThdfNBpbrZ9Z-wm9YCEe2wvceQ8KjSrCj_Zw/edit?usp=sharing) to see How They Fared. Enjoy!

[Professor Chaos]

What the hell happened to Mercer??? They gave up 46 points total through their first 6 games of the season and give up 55 today to Samford (42 in the first half)??? Hard to figure out what to do with them now.

[Christiank22]

Dear AGS. Take your sdsu picks and shove it. Go bison

[bonarae]

Montana State's time to shine in the polls has finally come! Hope this'll last until Cat/Griz week.

[MTfan4life]

What the hell happened to Mercer??? They gave up 46 points total through their first 6 games of the season and give up 55 today to Samford (42 in the first half)??? Hard to figure out what to do with them now.

Or Villanova? Going on the road and getting blitzed by a Maine team that lost by 29 to Monmouth a few weeks ago. They didn't even score until garbage time with their backup guys in.

[Mocs123]

What the hell happened to Mercer??? They gave up 46 points total through their first 6 games of the season and give up 55 today to Samford (42 in the first half)??? Hard to figure out what to do with them now.

I'm not sure to be honest (I haven't watched the game), but Samford's offense is very hot/cold and when it's hot they can score a ton of points in a hurry. They always seem to spoil someone's season in the SoCon. I still think Mercer is a really good team with with a great defense. I knew they were in trouble when they got down early as their offense isn't designed to come from behind. Nobody gets through the SoCon unscathed. Let's not forget a middle of the SoCon pack Wofford team beat Richmond, and another middle of the pack SoCon team ETSU too the juggernaut of NDSU down to the wire. What happed to Mercer was just "Any given Saturday" - They'll recover and be just fine.

[SeattleCat]

Montana State's time to shine in the polls has finally come! Hope this'll last until Cat/Griz week.

In my humble opinion, in Montana States current injury situation, both NDSU and SDSU are better.

[coriander_seed]

It's worth noting that Mercer's strength of schedule is in the bottom third among FCS programs.
An argument could be made that Samford is the strongest club they have faced since Chattanooga in Week 3.

[wapiti]

What the hell happened to Mercer??? They gave up 46 points total through their first 6 games of the season and give up 55 today to Samford (42 in the first half)??? Hard to figure out what to do with them now.


Or Villanova? Going on the road and getting blitzed by a Maine team that lost by 29 to Monmouth a few weeks ago. They didn't even score until garbage time with their backup guys in.

Shows how much harder road victories sometimes can be.

[coriander_seed]

Or Villanova? Going on the road and getting blitzed by a Maine team that lost by 29 to Monmouth a few weeks ago. They didn't even score until garbage time with their backup guys in.
One could make an argument that Maine is the toughest FCS ball club they have faced.
And, it's worth noting that the Monmouth loss came a week after a disappointing trip to Bozeman.

[Milktruck74]

I usually have trouble ranking the bottom 5-8, this week its trying to figure out where to put the top 5 or so. I have a hard time ranking a team above the team that they just lost to head to head, but....I guess I do that when a high ranked team (ie Mercer) is beated by an unranked team and the unranked team doesn't make it into the poll and the ranked team doesn't slied out of the poll...but still, This week is just gonna "if they played at a neutral site NEXT WEEK, who would win?" and go from there.

[caribbeanhen]

I usually have trouble ranking the bottom 5-8, this week its trying to figure out where to put the top 5 or so. I have a hard time ranking a team above the team that they just lost to head to head, but....I guess I do that when a high ranked team (ie Mercer) is beated by an unranked team and the unranked team doesn't make it into the poll and the ranked team doesn't slied out of the poll...but still, This week is just gonna "if they played at a neutral site NEXT WEEK, who would win?" and go from there.

Harvard and Dartmouth?

[coriander_seed]

I have a hard time ranking a team above the team that they just lost to head to head...
As the name of this site suggests, on field play has many variables, any one of which can affect the outcome of a game.
The better ball club can lose on any given Saturday.
Given this, my approach when ranking teams leans on body of work. The season resume is far more important than an individual result.

[Milktruck74]

As the name of this site suggests, on field play has many variables, any one of which can affect the outcome of a game.
The better ball club can lose on any given Saturday.
Given this, my approach when ranking teams leans on body of work. The season resume is far more important than an individual result.

I kinda agree, but it is still hard ranking a team lower than a team they just beat head to head....because YESTERDAY they were the better team.

[Milktruck74]

Harvard and Dartmouth?

I think I've heard of them. In fact, the Mocs have a kid from one of those JuCos.

- - - Updated - - -


Harvard and Dartmouth?

I think I've heard of them. In fact, the Mocs have a kid from one of those JuCos.

[coriander_seed]

I kinda agree, but it is still hard ranking a team lower than a team they just beat head to head....because YESTERDAY they were the better team.
I think it would be an enjoyable exercise to start with a completely unbiased data set, all teams ranked #1 at the start of the season, and then progress through the season, game by game, moving the victorious team one spot ahead of the losing team, no movement when the victor is already ranked above the opponent.

Anyone up for the challenge of writing that algorithm?

[Milktruck74]

I think it would be an enjoyable exercise to start with a completely unbiased data set, all teams ranked #1 at the start of the season, and then progress through the season, game by game, moving the victorious team one spot ahead of the losing team.

Anyone up for the challenge of writing that algorithm?

I like it. We do have that for the end of the season...called the playoffs!!!! But a regular season one sounds interesting.

[CopperCat]

In my humble opinion, in Montana States current injury situation, both NDSU and SDSU are better.

MSU offense is better. Defense is a different story with all the injuries.

But MSU should absolutely be #2 at this point.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I'm not sure to be honest (I haven't watched the game), but Samford's offense is very hot/cold and when it's hot they can score a ton of points in a hurry. They always seem to spoil someone's season in the SoCon. I still think Mercer is a really good team with with a great defense. I knew they were in trouble when they got down early as their offense isn't designed to come from behind. Nobody gets through the SoCon unscathed. Let's not forget a middle of the SoCon pack Wofford team beat Richmond, and another middle of the pack SoCon team ETSU too the juggernaut of NDSU down to the wire. What happed to Mercer was just "Any given Saturday" - They'll recover and be just fine.

I thought so too, but great defenses do not give up 55 pt. Period. Still think they are solid, but this is just a head scratcher.


Shows how much harder road victories sometimes can be.

Agreed. So, now I'll play devil's advocate. NDSU over ETSU should be treated way differently than the thought that NDSU is down. They won...on the road...against what might be arguably the 2nd best team in the SoCon. On the flip side, SDSU lost to NDSU by 4 pt...on the road in the Fargodome, so who is really the better team? Last night...NDSU. At the Dyk or neutral field...who knows?


Harvard and Dartmouth?

In a pinch...but heck, why not?...insert "impressive" wins against "impressive opponents" here...


I kinda agree, but it is still hard ranking a team lower than a team they just beat head to head....because YESTERDAY they were the better team.

We are 8 weeks in. Body of work matters, and I might argue that result of head-to-head matters as well...especially considering the manner in which a team won/lost. They are not mutually exclusive.


I think it would be an enjoyable exercise to start with a completely unbiased data set, all teams ranked #1 at the start of the season, and then progress through the season, game by game, moving the victorious team one spot ahead of the losing team, no movement when the victor is already ranked above the opponent.

Anyone up for the challenge of writing that algorithm?

So right now Dartmouth is #2 behind Montana State? carribeanhen approves! ;)

[caribbeanhen]

I thought so too, but great defenses do not give up 55 pt. Period. Still think they are solid, but this is just a head scratcher.



Agreed. So, now I'll play devil's advocate. NDSU over ETSU should be treated way differently than the thought that NDSU is down. They won...on the road...against what might be arguably the 2nd best team in the SoCon. On the flip side, SDSU lost to NDSU by 4 pt...on the road in the Fargodome, so who is really the better team? Last night...NDSU. At the Dyk or neutral field...who knows?



In a pinch...but heck, why not?...insert "impressive" wins against "impressive opponents" here...



We are 8 weeks in. Body of work matters, and I might argue that result of head-to-head matters as well...especially considering the manner in which a team won/lost. They are not mutually exclusive.



So right now Dartmouth is #2 behind Montana State? carribeanhen approves! ;)


nooo not at all

its that 18-25 range that Harvard would beat, just saying if you’re struggling with that range consider an Ivy team

[Milktruck74]

We are 8 weeks in. Body of work matters, and I might argue that result of head-to-head matters as well...especially considering the manner in which a team won/lost. They are not mutually exclusive.



;)

I dont disagree, but I guess it is how you look at polls in general. Are they a snapshot of that particular point in the season? or are they a reward for past play?

I absolutely get that there are flukes and any team can beat any other team...we saw that yesterday. And that doesn't mean Sammy with some rough losses and not even ranked is now in the top 10...but they were better than a top 10 team YESTERDAY...hence the snapshot view! And conversely, MErcer shouldn't drop completely out of the polls after losing to a non-ranked SAmmy team.

I guess it is harder when teams are actually close in my poll to not jump the H2H winner above the team they beat yesterday...Good thing we have a playoff to sort out all my human error.

I know I'm being very polarized on the view of polls...I do think it isn't always black and white...it should be a nice shade of gray...but is it dark gray or light gray? HA.

[Preferred Walk-On]

nooo not at all

its that 18-25 range that Harvard would beat, just saying if you’re struggling with that range consider an Ivy team

I don't disagree. Just had to give you a little grief. ;)

[Preferred Walk-On]

I dont disagree, but I guess it is how you look at polls in general. Are they a snapshot of that particular point in the season? or are they a reward for past play?

I absolutely get that there are flukes and any team can beat any other team...we saw that yesterday. And that doesn't mean Sammy with some rough losses and not even ranked is now in the top 10...but they were better than a top 10 team YESTERDAY...hence the snapshot view! And conversely, MErcer shouldn't drop completely out of the polls after losing to a non-ranked SAmmy team.

I guess it is harder when teams are actually close in my poll to not jump the H2H winner above the team they beat yesterday...Good thing we have a playoff to sort out all my human error.

I know I'm being very polarized on the view of polls...I do think it isn't always black and white...it should be a nice shade of gray...but is it dark gray or light gray? HA.

To play devil's advocate a bit more, why shouldn't Samford be ranked above Mercer? Loss @ ETSU (3 pt). Loss by West Georgia (week 1) is anchor; however, the 2003 Montana Grizzlies lost to then transitioning NDSU and went on to be co-champions of the Big Sky...for comparison. Food for thought.

[POD Knows]

Harvard and Dartmouth?
They are both dog**** but both are in my top 25, pretty much tells you the state of affairs in the FCS.

[FUBeAR]

I thought so too, but great defenses do not give up 55 pt. Period. Still think they are solid, but this is just a head scratcher.
Still your hands & nails…

THIS is how the story begins…


Team
Qtr
Spot
Time
Obtained
Spot
Time
How Ended
Plays-Yds.
TOP


SAM
1st
MER30
13:37
PUNT (17 yards)
MER0
12:15
TD
5-30
01:22


SAM
1st
MER15
11:40
FUMB
MER0
11:32
TD
1-15
00:08


SAM
1st
MER26
11:27
INT
MER0
10:59
TD
3-26
00:28


Mercer won the remaining 56 minutes of the game by 1 point.

Using Elon Musk’s Boring Company’s tool to tunnel your Defense / Team out of a game in the 1st 4 minutes is, generally, not a good plan.

FUBeAR has heard it said that you don’t get a 2nd chance to make a 1st impression. Mercer had a chance to disprove that, having a chance to get it back to a 1-TD game, driving, with plenty of time left in the 4th…but then…

…THIS, happened…


1st and 10 at SAM32
MER QB sacked for loss of 13 yards to the SAM45, fumble recovered by SAM at SAM45. SAM return 55 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:43.


…and then, THIS, happened on the next possession…


2nd and 10 at SAM28
(08:55) MER QB sacked for loss of 13 yards to the SAM41, fumble recovered by SAM at SAM41.


…and, finally, THIS, happened on the next possession…


2nd and 10 at MER23
(06:41) MER QB pass intercepted at MER26 SAM return 26 yards to the MER00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:33.


So…don’t pull all your hair out while scratching that head, PWO, as 5 of Samford’s 8 TD’s are pretty much on Mercer’s Offense. FUBeAR predicted Samford’s excellent Offense would score 20 on Mercer’s excellent Defense, even correctly projecting their missed XP…BUT he did not foresee Mercer’s Offense being Samford’s O’s Top Contributor.

Maybe Mercer’s D goes to “Hold” instead of “Buy” after this week, but not any reason to tag ‘em with a “Sell” rating just yet.

Now, if WCU’s O goes for another 800+ next week, yeah…maybe call your broker.

[caribbeanhen]

They are both dog**** but both are in my top 25, pretty much tells you the state of affairs in the FCS.

this is progress compared to where you where 5 years ago on those poison Ivies :D

[ElCid]

I thought so too, but great defenses do not give up 55 pt. Period. Still think they are solid, but this is just a head scratcher.





I watched a bit of the Mercer game and it wasn't their D that gave up most of the points...it was their O! Mercer had 5 turnovers. Yikes. At least three of Samford's scores were short field <30 yards from turnovers. Two more were interception/fumble TDs for Samford. Yikes! That's 35 points right there. I actually thought Mercer was going to pull the epic comeback when they got within 14 as the third qtr ended, but they turned it over again, and again for 14 more points. They were down by 35 at one point. It was one of those days for Mercer. But don't sell Samford short on their O firepower. I think they continue to have one of the lowest TOP per scoring possession. Its actually kind of weird how they do it. But when it works they just play pitch and catch up and down the field. They could be 5-1 right now if they hadn't started out slow this year. And they were only down to Florida 14-0 at half. Mercer should take a hit no doubt, but both they and Samford are better than it may appear. Samford's game against WCU in a few weeks, who had 800+ yards this week, could be epic. Neither team is very strong on D. The over/under for yards in that game should be 1000.

[Preferred Walk-On]

So…don’t pull all your hair out while scratching that head, PWO, as 5 of Samford’s 8 TD’s are pretty much on Mercer’s Offense. FUBeAR predicted Samford’s excellent Offense would score 20 on Mercer’s excellent Defense, even correctly projecting their missed XP…BUT he did not foresee Mercer’s Offense being Samford’s O’s Top Contributor.

Maybe Mercer’s D goes to “Hold” instead of “Buy” after this week, but not any reason to tag ‘em with a “Sell” rating just yet.

Now, if WCU’s O goes for another 800+ next week, yeah…maybe call your broker.

Appreciate the perspective on the turnovers. Definitely hard to win a game when that happens. Those last two return for scores were killers. So, I have two thoughts here: (1) top teams do not turn the ball over like that, and (2) great defenses prevent scores or limit to FGs for a few of those. I think Mercer is still a very good team (ranked?...definitely yes). I think their defense is probably better than the score indicates (great?...probably not). Finally, I also saw that the Samford QB threw three INTs (turnovers were 5 to 3). According to ESPN Play-by-Play, Mercer capitalized on one of three, and ignoring the two return for scores, Samford capitalized on two of three (or four of five total). Rough day for Mercer, but probably deserving of a bit of a demotion in the rankings. My question is, "Does Samford deserve some consideration, AND should do they warrant consideration to be above Mercer in the rankings?"

As for the head scratching, not much hair left to pull out, so I should be OK.


I watched a bit of the Mercer game and it wasn't their D that gave up most of the points...it was their O! Mercer had 5 turnovers. Yikes. At least three of Samford's scores were short field <30 yards from turnovers. Two more were interception/fumble TDs for Samford. Yikes! That's 35 points right there. I actually thought Mercer was going to pull the epic comeback when they got within 14 as the third qtr ended, but they turned it over again, and again for 14 more points. They were down by 35 at one point. It was one of those days for Mercer. But don't sell Samford short on their O firepower. I think they continue to have one of the lowest TOP per scoring possession. Its actually kind of weird how they do it. But when it works they just play pitch and catch up and down the field. They could be 5-1 right now if they hadn't started out slow this year. And they were only down to Florida 14-0 at half. Mercer should take a hit no doubt, but both they and Samford are better than it may appear. Samford's game against WCU in a few weeks, who had 800+ yards this week, could be epic. Neither team is very strong on D. The over/under for yards in that game should be 1000.

Thanks for the additional details. Samford's total yards in this game stuck out to me a bit. If their scores were mostly short on offense, then I might have expected the total yards to maybe be less than Mercer's. Looks like Samford was able to move the ball a bit, regardless of turnovers. But yes, Samford v. Western Carolina at the end of the season should be quite entertaining.

[POD Knows]

this is progress compared to where you where 5 years ago on those poison Ivies :D
Can’t remember the year but I had Princeton pretty high in my poll one year and there was more quality in the FCS at that time. I don’t think I have ever had an Ivy in my top 20 and probably never will. I watch a fair amount of IVY football, I don’t get the allure.

[POD Knows]

Appreciate the perspective on the turnovers. Definitely hard to win a game when that happens. Those last two return for scores were killers. So, I have two thoughts here: (1) top teams do not turn the ball over like that, and (2) great defenses prevent scores or limit to FGs for a few of those. I think Mercer is still a very good team (ranked?...definitely yes). I think their defense is probably better than the score indicates (great?...probably not). Finally, I also saw that the Samford QB threw three INTs (turnovers were 5 to 3). According to ESPN Play-by-Play, Mercer capitalized on one of three, and ignoring the two return for scores, Samford capitalized on two of three (or four of five total). Rough day for Mercer, but probably deserving of a bit of a demotion in the rankings. My question is, "Does Samford deserve some consideration, AND should do they warrant consideration to be above Mercer in the rankings?"

As for the head scratching, not much hair left to pull out, so I should be OK.



Thanks for the additional details. Samford's total yards in this game stuck out to me a bit. If their scores were mostly short on offense, then I might have expected the total yards to maybe be less than Mercer's. Looks like Samford was able to move the ball a bit, regardless of turnovers. But yes, Samford v. Western Carolina at the end of the season should be quite entertaining.
Didn’t NDSU have a 5 turnover game against SDSU the same year we won a natty?

[Preferred Walk-On]

Didn’t NDSU have a 5 turnover game against SDSU the same year we won a natty?

If NDSU did, I don’t remember giving up 55 pt to SDSU.


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[ElCid]

Appreciate the perspective on the turnovers. Definitely hard to win a game when that happens. Those last two return for scores were killers. So, I have two thoughts here: (1) top teams do not turn the ball over like that, and (2) great defenses prevent scores or limit to FGs for a few of those. I think Mercer is still a very good team (ranked?...definitely yes). I think their defense is probably better than the score indicates (great?...probably not). Finally, I also saw that the Samford QB threw three INTs (turnovers were 5 to 3). According to ESPN Play-by-Play, Mercer capitalized on one of three, and ignoring the two return for scores, Samford capitalized on two of three (or four of five total). Rough day for Mercer, but probably deserving of a bit of a demotion in the rankings. My question is, "Does Samford deserve some consideration, AND should do they warrant consideration to be above Mercer in the rankings?"

As for the head scratching, not much hair left to pull out, so I should be OK.



Thanks for the additional details. Samford's total yards in this game stuck out to me a bit. If their scores were mostly short on offense, then I might have expected the total yards to maybe be less than Mercer's. Looks like Samford was able to move the ball a bit, regardless of turnovers. But yes, Samford v. Western Carolina at the end of the season should be quite entertaining.

I think a telling but of evidence will be how they bounce back.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I think a telling but of evidence will be how they bounce back.

100% agree.


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[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just a little over 1/2 hr. to vote.