THE WEIRD 2024 SEASON- A THREAD (NIL/PORTAL/UPSETS)

[MUHAWKS]

I admittedly suck at getting my point across correctly, but I have a good "nose" and I smell something funny about the 2024 season and this goes for FCS and FBS. My question is this-


Have The Portal and NIL actually worked in reverse possibly where it has INCREASED parity? Has it now been long enough where we now see that teams that do not have continuity and just a revolving door of both staff and players are seeing it not pay off? Like, were/are certain teams just forced into saying "Screw it, lets build or rebuild or grow from The Portal" and some of them just are not able to manage it well?

I do not have tons of examples, but this season is only halfway done and so far Northern Illinois beat ND at ND- Bama lost to Vandy and almost SC- Arkansas beat Tennessee, Kentucky beat Ole Miss- Florida State is terrible- UNLV is "decent" maybe even good. In FCS we have weird stuff like a loaded Lafayette team getting shutout by NON SCHOLARSHIP Georgetown, who BEAT Columbia who looks pretty good. Albany went from a legit top 10 team to an also ran in a watered down CAA. Stony Brook is 4-2. Montana is vulnerable a bit, some IVY League weird stuff going on. I cannot put my finger on it, but it just seems like a year where anything goes. Yes, in FCS, SDSU is still the best and will probably win it all, but after them and Montana State and maybe NDSU I do not think that any of the other top 15 are above losing to essentially any random team. It feels like a year where a team like Duquesne can go and beat like South Dakota. Like I said, I am not even sure exactly what I am saying, but Army and Navy are both ranked and undefeated and look good doing it. Could one of them ruin the Irish's playoff top 12? The last time both were ranked was 1960. Can anyone else smarter than me finish this post for me, b/c I think I am on to something I just cannot articulate it or figure it out. But I think most o us assumed the portal and NIL would kill a team like mine (Monmouth) and yet even though we are only 3-3 we have a better team and are a play or two away from being ranked and beat an FBS school. Holy Cross is average at best. Stony Brook is halfway decent. Random schools like Tarleton and Abilene are ranked- There is just something very odd going on and it feels like top 10-15 teams are vulnerable to just about anyone in the 20-40 range and this goes for FBS and FCS. What am I trying to say? anyone????

[FUBeAR]

I admittedly suck at getting my point across correctly, but I have a good "nose" and I smell something funny about the 2024 season and this goes for FCS and FBS. My question is this-


Have The Portal and NIL actually worked in reverse possibly where it has INCREASED parity? Has it now been long enough where we now see that teams that do not have continuity and just a revolving door of both staff and players are seeing it not pay off? Like, were/are certain teams just forced into saying "Screw it, lets build or rebuild or grow from The Portal" and some of them just are not able to manage it well?

I do not have tons of examples, but this season is only halfway done and so far Northern Illinois beat ND at ND- Bama lost to Vandy and almost SC- Arkansas beat Tennessee, Kentucky beat Ole Miss- Florida State is terrible- UNLV is "decent" maybe even good. In FCS we have weird stuff like a loaded Lafayette team getting shutout by NON SCHOLARSHIP Georgetown, who BEAT Columbia who looks pretty good. Albany went from a legit top 10 team to an also ran in a watered down CAA. Stony Brook is 4-2. Montana is vulnerable a bit, some IVY League weird stuff going on. I cannot put my finger on it, but it just seems like a year where anything goes. Yes, in FCS, SDSU is still the best and will probably win it all, but after them and Montana State and maybe NDSU I do not think that any of the other top 15 are above losing to essentially any random team. It feels like a year where a team like Duquesne can go and beat like South Dakota. Like I said, I am not even sure exactly what I am saying, but Army and Navy are both ranked and undefeated and look good doing it. Could one of them ruin the Irish's playoff top 12? The last time both were ranked was 1960. Can anyone else smarter than me finish this post for me, b/c I think I am on to something I just cannot articulate it or figure it out. But I think most o us assumed the portal and NIL would kill a team like mine (Monmouth) and yet even though we are only 3-3 we have a better team and are a play or two away from being ranked and beat an FBS school. Holy Cross is average at best. Stony Brook is halfway decent. Random schools like Tarleton and Abilene are ranked- There is just something very odd going on and it feels like top 10-15 teams are vulnerable to just about anyone in the 20-40 range and this goes for FBS and FCS. What am I trying to say? anyone????
Chill … FUBeAR & Professor Jennings got you…


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUOGxePBs50

[MUHAWKS]

Chill … FUBeAR & Professor Jennings got you…


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUOGxePBs50



But I gave you paragraphs bruh

[FUBeAR]

But I gave you paragraphs bruh
Truth & your largesse was repaid with a metaphysical answer to your broad query. Now just apply the concepts Prof. Jennngs has laid out and your mind & heart will no longer be troubled.

[Milktruck74]

I admittedly suck at getting my point across correctly, but I have a good "nose" and I smell something funny about the 2024 season and this goes for FCS and FBS. My question is this-


Have The Portal and NIL actually worked in reverse possibly where it has INCREASED parity? Has it now been long enough where we now see that teams that do not have continuity and just a revolving door of both staff and players are seeing it not pay off? Like, were/are certain teams just forced into saying "Screw it, lets build or rebuild or grow from The Portal" and some of them just are not able to manage it well?

I do not have tons of examples, but this season is only halfway done and so far Northern Illinois beat ND at ND- Bama lost to Vandy and almost SC- Arkansas beat Tennessee, Kentucky beat Ole Miss- Florida State is terrible- UNLV is "decent" maybe even good. In FCS we have weird stuff like a loaded Lafayette team getting shutout by NON SCHOLARSHIP Georgetown, who BEAT Columbia who looks pretty good. Albany went from a legit top 10 team to an also ran in a watered down CAA. Stony Brook is 4-2. Montana is vulnerable a bit, some IVY League weird stuff going on. I cannot put my finger on it, but it just seems like a year where anything goes. Yes, in FCS, SDSU is still the best and will probably win it all, but after them and Montana State and maybe NDSU I do not think that any of the other top 15 are above losing to essentially any random team. It feels like a year where a team like Duquesne can go and beat like South Dakota. Like I said, I am not even sure exactly what I am saying, but Army and Navy are both ranked and undefeated and look good doing it. Could one of them ruin the Irish's playoff top 12? The last time both were ranked was 1960. Can anyone else smarter than me finish this post for me, b/c I think I am on to something I just cannot articulate it or figure it out. But I think most o us assumed the portal and NIL would kill a team like mine (Monmouth) and yet even though we are only 3-3 we have a better team and are a play or two away from being ranked and beat an FBS school. Holy Cross is average at best. Stony Brook is halfway decent. Random schools like Tarleton and Abilene are ranked- There is just something very odd going on and it feels like top 10-15 teams are vulnerable to just about anyone in the 20-40 range and this goes for FBS and FCS. What am I trying to say? anyone????

It is an odd year. While I preface saying I know there is absolutely ZERO transitive properties in football....but... My Mocs led Georgia State the entire game and GaSt had to score late to win by 3, the next week they beat Vandy by 4, who in turn beat Bama by 5. Then ETSU was leading NDSU late in the game and the Bison ended up scoring twice in the last 2 minutes to win by 3. But the Bison gave up like 280 yards on the ground. Then my Mocs pretty much shut down that run game two weeks later. This is my Myopic view using my team, but I'd bet most of us have similar stories. Based on the trajectory of this season at thehalf way point, the committee will have its hands full trying to figure out who fills the 10-24 spots.

[crusader11]

Lots of words, MUHAWKS.

I think there's something to be said for a strong nucleus of players being in a program together for an extended period of time (Army, Navy), compared to programs who are renting players for just a season.

Look at Villanova's success in basketball under Jay Wright. Rarely did he piece a team together with transfers and rarely was he recruited one-and-done players. His best teams were recruited out of high school / prep school, developed at Villanova, and were there until they were upperclassmen. There's something to be said for teams built this way.

[ElCid]

Lots of words, MUHAWKS.

I think there's something to be said for a strong nucleus of players being in a program together for an extended period of time (Army, Navy), compared to programs who are renting players for just a season.

Look at Villanova's success in basketball under Jay Wright. Rarely did he piece a team together with transfers and rarely was he recruited one-and-done players. His best teams were recruited out of high school / prep school, developed at Villanova, and were there until they were upperclassmen. There's something to be said for teams built this way.

This. And not to pick on them, but in the SOCON, our poster child for transfers has been Samford. On paper they have consistently had some of the top rosters. But overall their on field success does not match that expectation with seriously inconsistent results.

Wait until serious money starts feeding the frenzy. There are always people who think throwing money at an issue can fix it. It's going to be the wild west before this plays out and an earth shaking response has to fix it.

[Outsider1]

Nothing beats a roster of good players that have played together for several years. You can't beat that chemistry and sense of knowing (and confidence) of what everyone else is doing. Great players can be thrown together and have success, but it seems to always be limited.

[MUHAWKS]

Good input guys (seriously)- appreciate the thoughts- I agree and this is sort of what I was trying to say, BUT I was also maybe thinking "SOME" teams just know how to manage the portal and guys that will be with a team for 1-2 years (maybe by not just trying to take the best guy or name guy but actually knowing the player and if he will be a fit for the culture/locker room). So two sides to the coin- My MAIN point was yes the Army/Navy thing- where its pure continuity coupled with obvious discipline and all that but also in FCS there are both sides where you have the Samford example that Elcid brought up, but then you also have Stony Brook who was just awful, got a new coach and combined it with tons of transfers to be ok- Then you have tons of schools who may just have some sort of edge with "build from within" but they know how to combine it with the portal, whereas other programs have no cue and just go get name guys, best available etc. etc. It truly is an art not a science, and although I cannot prove anything, I think the parity and upsets and just hard to figure out year have something to do with all this. To The Chattanooga guy- I actually like your examples and comparison and agree that we cannot actually take it as the law, but examples like that are rampant in a relative sense and actually I think it matters at times and certainly at least gives hope and dreams to The Non Dakotas and Montanas of the world. No paragraph breaks this time, sorry.

[Milktruck74]

My Mocs get a bad rap for taking quite a few transfers. About 1/3 of the roster did not come directly from high school. That said, Rusty is pretty selective about who he brings in from the portal. Unless it is a very extenuating circumstance players must have at least two years of eligibility left to even be considered. About half of the guys that are transfers on the Mocs were somewhat local kids that went away and for whatever reason (playing time, family, etc) decided to return home. As you mention, "managing the portal" is key. Some coaches just use it to try and find a quick hit of talent and other coaches use it to augment what they have and put a premium on culture over talent. The former just doesn't work out so well.

[Outsider1]

Transfers are the norm now. Most FCS teams are going to have a fairly medium to large mix of transfers every year. Agree that managing the portal and picking the right fit of players to match your teams chemistry, philosophy, etc... is a large part of that. It's not just about talent.

[FUBeAR]

Multiple consecutive years of importation of large numbers of Short-Term Talent has been proven capable of filling gaps, solving problems, jump-starting a ‘down’ program, and winning some games.

Unless FUBeAR is mistaken, it has not (yet) proven it can consistently win Championships at the FCS level - certainly not National Championships, and, perhaps not even Conference Championships in a strong conference.

[Ridge1982]

Parity is here to stay thanks to the portal and NIL. They give everyone a chance to one day slay Goliath and qualify for the playoffs in both subdivisions.