Ranking Sub-.500 Teams?

[Preferred Walk-On]

Weeks 4-6 are often a time where a potentially rankable team has an sub-.500 record due to a number of circumstances, but often due to FBS matchups and/or matchups involving very good FCS teams. While this is an annual discussion topic on the podcast, especially around weeks 4-6, I am curious about the opinions within the general AGS population, and why?

Poll question: What are your feelings regarding ranking sub-.500 teams after week 3?
a. Yes, there are circumstances where these teams should be ranked.
b. No, there is not a single circumstance where these teams should be ranked.

Additional question (not in poll): If you feel there are circumstances allowing for ranking after week 3, at what week do these circumstances no longer apply?

P.S. Did a quick search, but did not see a thread addressing this directly. If there is, moderators please feel free to combine this one.

[FUBeAR]

a.

Additional question response: the week a Team goes 0-2 In-Conference unless there is a HIGHLY significant body of evidence to indicate otherwise.

Example: Team A (an MVFC Team in this example) beats a FBS P5, badly smashes a good ranked FCS Team, loses an OT away game to Montana State, then loses an OT game to SDSU in Brookings, and yet another OT game in the FargoDome in their 1st 2 MVFC games. They are 2-3, but an argument could be made they should be Top 5 or at worst Top 10.

[crusader11]

Yes.

Not all wins and losses are created equal.

[Reign of Terrier]

For the first two weeks, you can rank them. Then from game 3-5, kick them out. It they are truly good they shouldn’t be below .500 after game 6.

[Outsider1]

a.

Agree that not all loses are equal and conference games may not begin until week 3 or 4. So, by week 3 I start evaluating. By weeks 4-5, that should tell me enough unless it's an extremely rare situation.

[Professor Chaos]

By the end of the season I'd say no... I'd say as late as weeks 6-7 it's still possible but takes a pretty unique circumstance - before that sure and after that no bueno.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I have Chattanooga ranked despite being 1-3. However, if they lose this week to ETSU to fall to 1-4 the Mocs will definitely be on the outside looking in. I'll give teams a 4-5 week grace period given the number of FBS games/unbalanced OOC scheduling. Like others have said, at some point a team needs to win games....

[ElCid]

It depends.

But by week 6, teams are into the conf schedule. If a team played two FBS, assuming they are loses, they need to go 3-1 otherwise. Week 6 is pretty much a good cutoff to be at least 3-3. And they better be good. If it includes two FBS, then it is most likely a 12 game year so they also have a chance to go 9-3, or at least 8-4, or possibly with an especially hard schedule, 7-5. A team that is 2-4 after 6 games basically needs to win out with an average schedule. Doable but obviously much harder. And they better be a really good team to get the benefit of the doubt.

N Iowa has been the proverbial red headed step child more than once. Obviously the poster child this year is UTC. There is usually one. There is no doubt that are a good team. Rank-worthy currently is arguable. They better win the next two or they are gone. At least until/if they make a huge run.

[ST_Lawson]

By the end of the season I'd say no... I'd say as late as weeks 6-7 it's still possible but takes a pretty unique circumstance - before that sure and after that no bueno.

This is my opinion as well.

[JacksFan40]

As stated previously it depends on circumstances, same would apply for teams above .500 that don’t deserved to be ranked. Butler is 4-0 but I don’t think anyone is arguing they should be ranked right now, they’ve beaten 3 lower level teams and Murray State who is basically a D2 caliber team. It all depends on who they’ve played.

[taper]

Of course there are circumstances. Usually rare, but it can happen. Anybody voting B would be a good fit for the Coach's Poll.

[MTfan4life]

For the first two weeks, you can rank them. Then from game 3-5, kick them out. It they are truly good they shouldn’t be below .500 after game 6.

This right here. If you want to be ranked, simply be at .500 or above. Just because I don't rank a team at 1-3, regardless of who they've played, doesn't mean I will pass on them at 3-3 or 4-3. Just haven't earned being ranked, yet, by simply losing all or most of their games. The season is about winning, not losing.

[KnightoftheRedFlash]

This isn't the NFL.

Schedules are wildly uneven.

[FUBeAR]

This isn't the NFL.

Schedules are wildly uneven.
Exactly - here’s a radical idea…

How ‘bout each & every voter rank each FCS Team based, exclusively, upon their opinion of which Team is some degree better than the Team below it, but, by some degree, not as good as the Team above it, at that particular point in time, and then submit the Teams they have decided are the 25 best FCS Teams in the rank order to which they have assigned each Team.

Crazy-talk, FUBeAR knows, but worthy of consideration, perhaps.

https://www.enworld.org/media/1671492414102-png.100625/full

[Bisonoline]

Why would you want rank these teams?

[FUBeAR]

Why would you want rank these teams?
Because your opinion is that they are one of the 25 best Teams in FCS, maybe.

[Reign of Terrier]

Top 15 solves all problems

[caribbeanhen]

Top 15 solves all problems

nope, we don't need no stinkin rules

[skinny_uncle]

SU is 2-3 but have played 5 straight teams.

[JacksFan40]

SU is 2-3 but have played 5 straight teams.
Well I would hope they’ve played 5 straight teams, I’d be confused otherwise.

[skinny_uncle]

Well I would hope they’ve played 5 straight teams, I’d be confused otherwise.
5 ranked teams. Number 6 is this week.

[Catbooster]

This point in the season, 5 or so games, is probably the limit for me for sub-.500 teams barring unusual circumstances (never say never). Even prior to this point I probably need a good reason.

[wapiti]

NAU could be one of the sub .500 teams that receive consideration to receive votes

[ElCid]

NAU could be one of the sub .500 teams that receive consideration to receive votes

Same with Chatty at this point. Look what they did to PSU compared to Davis barely winning on a seriously questionable call. I'll probably leap some over them as a result, if warranted. PSU was robbed.

[Outsider1]

NAU could be one of the sub .500 teams that receive consideration to receive votes

NAU is now .500 in both OOC and conference, not sub .500. Still, I wouldn't put them into my top 25 yet. They played Idaho well, and their win last week puts them right on the edge. They are definitely 26-30 range. That's where I had them last week, as I needed to watch them more. I'm not sure they break the top 25 yet. They have a tough schedule, so I might be being too harsh on them, but I want to see more. Next week will definitely give more info.

[smilo]

I guess it never occurred to be that Northern Arizona shouldn't be ranked and today really solidifies that for me. I would want to move them up if the Incarnate Word loss weren't holding them back by virtue of H2H (second order through blowout loss to a team that loss to Southern Illinois). And I plan on checking Massey/SP+ tomorrow to double check those instincts. Despite the MVFC computer love, I do think they could be close.

Lumberjacks aside, I really think Chattanooga is going to be in the conversation for the top 10 very soon and have no reason to exclude them on the basis of record. The aforementioned Salukis, and Sac State with 2 FBS losses seem worthy of inclusion. Towson has always been on the fence for me, and I was confident they were good enough to beat W&M - just needed the resume validation to rank a losing team. And I've been in on UTM too, though that depends how highly you still think of Missouri State, with the loss to Montana. I still wouldn't blame someone voting for Nicholls either though I want to see them play a real team.

I don't see why I should replace those teams with Rhode Island (who I can't vote for after a OT win vs Hampton) or Richmond (unconvincing wins...) or Weber/Monmouth with bad losses or a fluke like Lamar/Stony Brook.

At some point, there aren't enough teams with winning records. I'll vote for what I know to be quality over 3-2 FAMU or 3-0 Dartmouth with no resume, even by advanced metrics. There aren't enough teams with valid winning records worth a ranking. I will rank the best. They will prove soon if they don't belong. Can anyone rationalize why the 8 underlined teams belong ahead of any bolded team not, except perhaps Nicholls? I don't see it.

[Chalupa Batman]

The aforementioned Salukis.......... seem worthy of inclusion.

Without DJ Williams the Salukis shouldn't be sniffing the poll

[smilo]

Without DJ Williams the Salukis shouldn't be sniffing the poll

I am more receptive to this argument after the 4th quarter....yikes! Still out-gained ISU-r, but back-to-back-to-back-to-back Turnovers since I composed this post (to say nothing of the field goal they had just missed). I had them penciled in around 19 but that's likely done.

[FUBeAR]

Same with Chatty at this point. Look what they did to PSU compared to Davis barely winning on a seriously questionable call. I'll probably leap some over them as a result, if warranted. PSU was robbed.
As you’re boosting the Mocs, appropriately, don’t overlook that they lost a late 4th quarter lead and were barely beaten by a Team that beat the Team that just beat FBS #1 Alabama.

Y’all can transitive properties-shame FUBeAR all you want, but who your Team plays, how they beat or lost to them and how those opponents & their opponents have performed previously or subsequently should be rightly factored into any serious analysis of the relative strength of a Team.

If not, just copy/paste the MVFC & Big Sky standings - alternate a few of them into one another - and call it day.

[bonarae]

Meanwhile... I was having a hard time voting earlier. I picked up the "wins matter after the Ivies start play" voting style in the early 2010s.

[Milktruck74]

As you’re boosting the Mocs, appropriately, don’t overlook that they lost a late 4th quarter lead and were barely beaten by a Team that beat the Team that just beat FBS #1 Alabama.



That's the Mocs 3-4-5 property... Lose by 3 to a team that beat a team by 4 that beat (number one..its out of order) by 5.

????

Crazy transitives...

[skinny_uncle]

5 ranked teams. Number 6 is this week.
Another ranked team coming up next in NDSU. Mainly hoping the Salukis don't run out of QBs. Started the season with 5 on the roster, 4 are now injured.