AGS Poll Results 2024 Week 4

[AGSPoll]

9/23/2024



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1193
41


2
Montana State Bobcats
1130
3


3
Idaho Vandals
1104
3


4
North Dakota State Bison
1051
1


5
South Dakota Coyotes
957



6
Villanova Wildcats
894



7
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
873



8
Montana Grizzlies
869



9
Central Arkansas Bears
836



10
Sac State Hornets
759



11
Mercer Bears
698



12
UC Davis Aggies
642



13
William & Mary Tribe
626



14
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
619



15
Southern Illinois Salukis
497



16
Incarnate Word Cardinals
429



17
Illinois State Redbirds
335



18
Tarleton Texans
271



19
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
215



20
Abilene Christian Wildcats
212



21
Richmond Spiders
199



22
Wofford Terriers
190



23
Chattanooga Mocs
177



24
Rhode Island Rams
154



25
New Hampshire Wildcats
150
















ORV:




26
Lamar Cardinals
72



27
Albany Great Danes
41



28
Lafayette Leopards
38



29
Western Carolina Catamounts
37



30
Yale Bulldogs
36



31
Nicholls Colonels
34



32
Harvard Crimson
31



33
Florida A&M Rattlers
30



34
Weber State Wildcats
28



35
Missouri State Bears
25



36
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
22



37
Furman Paladins
19



38
Northern Iowa Panthers
16



39
Idaho State Bengals
15



40
Duquesne Dukes
10
















Most Significant Win:
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks





Most Significant Loss:
Lafayette Leopards

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Idaho Vandals
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: South Dakota Coyotes
5: North Dakota State Bison
6: Central Arkansas Bears
7: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
8: Villanova Wildcats
9: Mercer Bears
10: Montana Grizzlies
11: Incarnate Word Cardinals
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: Tarleton Texans
14: Southern Illinois Salukis
15: Chattanooga Mocs
16: William & Mary Tribe
17: UC Davis Aggies
18: Yale Bulldogs
19: Sac State Hornets
20: Abilene Christian Wildcats
21: Wofford Terriers
22: Harvard Crimson
23: Lamar Cardinals
24: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
25: New Hampshire Wildcats

The Most Significant Win: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Patriot League

[Redbird 4th & short]

This seems very reasonable overall, especially just 4 games into season. I still question Villanova getting lot of spillover love from last season when they were legit good. They lost a lot on offense. And their YSU win by 7 pts looks worse every week.

But that is the only team that is clearly questionable IMO .. this is actually a very good poll for week 4.

[Professor Chaos]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-4-top-25-results-6/

Not much noteworthy this week to be honest - I suspect the poll is going to start getting mixed up quite a bit next week with the start of widespread conference play. It's still very top heavy with MVFC and Big Sky teams taking the entire top 5 and 7 of the top 8 spots so that can't be sustained for too much longer.

[Professor Chaos]

My crack at it for the week:

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Idaho Vandals
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Mercer Bears
9: UC Davis Aggies
10: Sac State Hornets
11: Villanova Wildcats
12: Central Arkansas Bears
13: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Southern Illinois Salukis
16: Incarnate Word Cardinals
17: William & Mary Tribe
18: Rhode Island Rams
19: Illinois State Redbirds
20: New Hampshire Wildcats
21: Abilene Christian Wildcats
22: Lamar Cardinals
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Yale Bulldogs
25: Columbia Lions

[Professor Chaos]

Here's a data nugget to ruminate on in lieu of anything all that controversial in this week's poll - it's a list to date of where all the current members of each FCS conference have been ranked in the AGS Poll since its inception in 2004. The columns represent each top 25 ranking and the numbers in the grid are the count of times current teams from each conference have been in that ranking in the history of the AGS Poll (which has now had 286 releases).

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54016419096_daf0305d40_b.jpg

[SeattleCat]

: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Idaho Vandals
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Villanova Wildcats
7: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
8: Montana Grizzlies
9: Central Arkansas Bears
10: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
11: Sac State Hornets
12: Mercer Bears
13: William & Mary Tribe
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: Incarnate Word Cardinals
16: Illinois State Redbirds
17: Chattanooga Mocs
18: Tarleton Texans
19: Abilene Christian Wildcats
20: Richmond Spiders
21: Southern Illinois Salukis
22: Wofford Terriers
23: Western Carolina Catamounts
24: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
25: New Hampshire Wildcats

[MSUBobcat]

This seems very reasonable overall, especially just 4 games into season. I still question Villanova getting lot of spillover love from last season when they were legit good. They lost a lot on offense. And their YSU win by 7 pts looks worse every week.

But that is the only team that is clearly questionable IMO .. this is actually a very good poll for week 4.

Agree with all of this. Maybe a team up or down a spot or 3, but that's all subjective. Nova's win over YSU not as shiny, but the 1pt win over Towson perhaps not looking quite as bad as I had originally thought either.

One that I think needs explanation is Wofford behind Richmond. I don't believe that just the H2H puts you over the top, but Richmond's wins are pretty meh, while Wofford's wins are over the team they are below and a Gardner-Webb team that I think better than their record indicates and their loss is to the AGS #13. G-W has a 1pt loss to Wofford, another 1pt loss to FBS Charlotte (not a powerhouse, but FBS nonetheless) and a 7pt loss to FBS JMU, who is receiving votes at 3-0.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Here's a data nugget to ruminate on in lieu of anything all that controversial in this week's poll - it's a list to date of where all the current members of each FCS conference have been ranked in the AGS Poll since its inception in 2004. The columns represent each top 25 ranking and the numbers in the grid are the count of times current teams from each conference have been in that ranking in the history of the AGS Poll (which has now had 286 releases).

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54016419096_daf0305d40_b.jpg

Oddly similar to the number of releases the podcast has had. xlolx

288 was the last one.

[Chalupa Batman]

For your viewing pleasure:

1: Idaho Vandals
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Central Arkansas Bears
5: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6: Mercer Bears
7: South Dakota Coyotes
8: North Dakota State Bison
9: Montana Grizzlies
10: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
11: William & Mary Tribe
12: Sac State Hornets
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: UC Davis Aggies
15: Incarnate Word Cardinals
16: Villanova Wildcats
17: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
18: Abilene Christian Wildcats
19: Southern Illinois Salukis
20: Wofford Terriers
21: Western Carolina Catamounts
22: Rhode Island Rams
23: Tarleton Texans
24: New Hampshire Wildcats
25: Illinois State Redbirds

The Most Significant Win: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
The Most Significant Loss: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

[ElCid]

I guess maybe I dreamed Wofford beat Richmond.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I guess maybe I dreamed Wofford beat Richmond.

Eventually some leeway needs to be given for head-to-head results. I moved Incarnate Word past Southern Illinois this week despite the fact the Salukis beat the Cardinals in Carbondale a couple of weeks ago. My rationale being, IWU has played a murderous schedule. Their resounding win over NAU on Saturday moved my needle. With that said, SIU has also played a tough schedule and moving forward will have far more opportunities to move back ahead of IWU.

[POD Knows]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Villanova Wildcats
5: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Central Arkansas Bears
9: South Dakota Coyotes
10: Sac State Hornets
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: William & Mary Tribe
14: Mercer Bears
15: Southern Illinois Salukis
16: Chattanooga Mocs
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Wofford Terriers
19: Incarnate Word Cardinals
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
22: New Hampshire Wildcats
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Abilene Christian Wildcats

[ElCid]

Eventually some leeway needs to be given for head-to-head results. I moved Incarnate Word past Southern Illinois this week despite the fact the Salukis beat the Cardinals in Carbondale a couple of weeks ago. My rationale being, IWU has played a murderous schedule. Their resounding win over NAU on Saturday moved my needle. With that said, SIU has also played a tough schedule and moving forward will have far more opportunities to move back ahead of IWU.

I agree. But, "eventually" isn't week 4. IT WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO for goodness sakes. And struggling to stay ahead against Delaware St for most of the game isn't exactly a confidence builder for ranking Richmond above Wofford. In any event it's too early to consider body of work to overcome a H2H, especially one so recent.

[Chalupa Batman]

Eventually some leeway needs to be given for head-to-head results. I moved Incarnate Word past Southern Illinois this week despite the fact the Salukis beat the Cardinals in Carbondale a couple of weeks ago. My rationale being, IWU has played a murderous schedule. Their resounding win over NAU on Saturday moved my needle. With that said, SIU has also played a tough schedule and moving forward will have far more opportunities to move back ahead of IWU.

I have UIW ahead of SIU as well, but that’s pretty much due to the fact that DJ Williams is out for the Salukis now and thus not as strong as they were when they beat UIW.

[mvemjsunpx]

Previous week in parentheses…


1. South Dakota St. (1)
2. Montana St. (2)
3. North Dakota St. (3)
4. Idaho (4)
5. South Dakota (5)
6. Central Arkansas (6)
7. North Dakota (8)
8. Sacramento St. (9)
9. Southeast Missouri St. (12)
10. UC Davis (7)
11. Villanova (10)
12. Montana (11)
13. Mercer (13)
14. William & Mary (15)
15. Rhode Island (17)
16. Southern Illinois (14)
17. Incarnate Word (NR)
18. Duquesne (23)
19. East Tennessee St. (25)
20. New Hampshire (NR)
21. Lamar (16)
22. Florida A&M (18)
23. Weber St. (NR)
24. Tennessee-Chattanooga (24)
25. Harvard (NR)

Dropped - Tennessee-Martin (19), Abilene Christian (20), Southern Utah (21), Lafayette (22)


W - SEMO
L - Lafayette

[caribbeanhen]

I agree. But, "eventually" isn't week 4. IT WAS A COUPLE WEEKS AGO for goodness sakes. And struggling to stay ahead against Delaware St for most of the game isn't exactly a confidence builder for ranking Richmond above Wofford. In any event it's too early to consider body of work to overcome a H2H, especially one so recent.

agree with this, Richmond is going to crash and burn

[POD Knows]

agree with this, Richmond is going to crash and burn
I agree with this and I expect Wofford to crash and burn as well but I still have them in my poll but I doubt it will last very long.

[RahRahRabbits]

Here's a data nugget to ruminate on in lieu of anything all that controversial in this week's poll - it's a list to date of where all the current members of each FCS conference have been ranked in the AGS Poll since its inception in 2004. The columns represent each top 25 ranking and the numbers in the grid are the count of times current teams from each conference have been in that ranking in the history of the AGS Poll (which has now had 286 releases).

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/54016419096_daf0305d40_b.jpg

So I find this extremely interesting. Throwing a little conditional formatting on your numbers makes it very clear the MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA are easily the most dominant of remaining teams (I see you SOCON, pulling up the 3rd position in the 25-hole, way to represent!). The Valley's gaudy 146 weeks in slot 1 is very eye-popping (thanks NDSU), but the CAA definitely dominates spots 6-25. Even with the 108-week deficit in spot 1, the CAA still has more total weeks ranked as you show (1339 to 1330).

Also interesting with how you displayed this information of CURRENT teams (does this include Delaware still?). That makes it easy to show what talent we've lost (22.0-29.7% of 1-5 ranked position weeks for example, 7-18% of slots 6-25). Who had the bulk of those transitioned rankings? Gotta imagine that would be JMU, App State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Sam Houston? Obviously some of those teams had many fewer years from 2004 to their move up, so some schools numbers may not reach too high.

Tabulating yearly data would be interesting to see how these numbers have changed through time. How have conferences actually changed --- whether that's lost talent to the FBS, gained talent from DII, or just programs and institutions inevitably changing through time? Clearly very strong programs have moved up, but how much "watering down" of the FCS has truly occurred that hasn't been equally backfilled (probably not answerable from this alone)? How many of these programs moved when they were on top? Running numbers on only teams present since 2004 (and still present) could help answer the backfilling question. NDSU/SDSU/UC Davis officially were D1 in 2004, but I think it would be fair to not include them as the OG's to this poll if those numbers were ran since they were in the midst of a transition. Other notable later additions were USD/UND, Incarnate Word, Central Arkansas, and I'm sure a few others that have some ranked weeks.

I'm mostly just thinking out loud here. But gosh darn it, data can be so sexy!
33486

Side note, maybe someday I'll figure out how to insert an image smoothly and effectively into my post like you, Dr. Chaos. But today is still not that day.

[MSUBobcat]

https://i.postimg.cc/gkBKJLJr/Screenshot-2024-09-24-101807.jpg

I got you, Rah Rah. To post an image, go to https://postimages.org/ (probably others also). Choose image. Click the Copy button at the end of "Direct Link". Come back to AGS, click "Insert Image", click "from URL" tab, paste link, uncheck "Retrieve remote file", "okay". (all credit to FUBeAR for the instructions a few years back xsalutex).

[RahRahRabbits]

I got you, Rah Rah. To post an image, go to https://postimages.org/ (probably others also). Choose image. Click the Copy button at the end of "Direct Link". Come back to AGS, click "Insert Image", click "from URL" tab, paste link, uncheck "Retrieve remote file", "okay". (all credit to FUBeAR for the instructions a few years back xsalutex).

I'll give you the credit, Mr. Bobcat. You are my hero! FUBeAR... I guess you're fine too. :)

Ursus/admin - any way to add this method to 'Attachments and Images' section of the 'Reading and Posting Messages' page in FAQ, so future newcomers who don't even know they need to kiss the feet of FUBeAR can pick it up easier? The conversion of your own image to a URL seems to be the key thing I was missing that isn't outlined there.

[ncspiderfan]

I agree with this and I expect Wofford to crash and burn as well but I still have them in my poll but I doubt it will last very long.

Spiders may well crash and burn as predicted, so just info since I know most here do not get Flo Sports.

Spiders had three TD passes dropped in or near the endzone during Delaware State game. They also had a pass intercepted in the Del St endzone at the end of the 1st half from the Del St 9-yard line. Del St also stopped a drive at their 27 via Richmond throwing another INT later in the game.
Starters out of game included QB and All America preseason WR DeGennaro.

The Wofford loss was helped along by 4 turnovers by Spiders, so they can be good, but need to tighten up on the mistakes

I am not a voter, but if were, I would make Spiders prove they are better than 20th for now. Scored 38 points in each of last two games, but they still made plenty of errors that will not be as easy to overcome versus better teams.

Elon will be a test and should begin to sort out the situation for each team. Elon loss to WCU was helped along by two redzone turnovers after two long drives by Elon I believe so they have shot themselves in the foot with errors also.

Of course, good teams clean these type errors up as season goes along so the crash and burn scenarios remain alive and well for each team this weekend and beyond.

Not trying to throw my Spiders under the bus, they have good players and will win more games along the way, but if do not tighten up they will not beat the remaining few top teams in CAA they have on schedule (Delaware, Elon, W&M).

[FUBeAR]

I'll give you the credit, Mr. Bobcat. You are my hero! FUBeAR... I guess you're fine too. :)

Ursus/admin - any way to add this method to 'Attachments and Images' section of the 'Reading and Posting Messages' page in FAQ, so future newcomers who don't even know they need to kiss the feet of FUBeAR can pick it up easier? The conversion of your own image to a URL seems to be the key thing I was missing that isn't outlined there.Pucker up!

https://i.postimg.cc/DZq2KDhN/IMG-3105.jpg

[FU_Paladin08]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Villanova Wildcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Central Arkansas Bears
9: William & Mary Tribe
10: Mercer Bears
11: Tarleton Texans
12: UC Davis Aggies
13: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Lamar Cardinals
16: Rhode Island Rams
17: McNeese Cowboys
18: Southern Illinois Salukis
19: Sac State Hornets
20: Incarnate Word Cardinals
21: New Hampshire Wildcats
22: Stony Brook Seawolves
23: Illinois State Redbirds
24: Lehigh Mountain Hawks
25: Wofford Terriers


The Most Significant Win: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
The Most Significant Loss: Western Carolina Catamounts
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Southern Conference

[Reign of Terrier]

Spiders may well crash and burn as predicted, so just info since I know most here do not get Flo Sports.

Spiders had three TD passes dropped in or near the endzone during Delaware State game. They also had a pass intercepted in the Del St endzone at the end of the 1st half from the Del St 9-yard line. Del St also stopped a drive at their 27 via Richmond throwing another INT later in the game.
Starters out of game included QB and All America preseason WR DeGennaro.

The Wofford loss was helped along by 4 turnovers by Spiders, so they can be good, but need to tighten up on the mistakes

I am not a voter, but if were, I would make Spiders prove they are better than 20th for now. Scored 38 points in each of last two games, but they still made plenty of errors that will not be as easy to overcome versus better teams.

Elon will be a test and should begin to sort out the situation for each team. Elon loss to WCU was helped along by two redzone turnovers after two long drives by Elon I believe so they have shot themselves in the foot with errors also.

Of course, good teams clean these type errors up as season goes along so the crash and burn scenarios remain alive and well for each team this weekend and beyond.

Not trying to throw my Spiders under the bus, they have good players and will win more games along the way, but if do not tighten up they will not beat the remaining few top teams in CAA they have on schedule (Delaware, Elon, W&M).

Tbh I would rather have the mistakes my team makes being drops. You're way too hard on your Spiders. The defense is tough, and the offense has looked pretty solid, albeit with mistakes preventing last week's final score from looking solid. And you're beat up too.I suspect Elon is not good. If your #36 plays again, the offense will roll bigger.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'll give you the credit, Mr. Bobcat. You are my hero! FUBeAR... I guess you're fine too. :)

Ursus/admin - any way to add this method to 'Attachments and Images' section of the 'Reading and Posting Messages' page in FAQ, so future newcomers who don't even know they need to kiss the feet of FUBeAR can pick it up easier? The conversion of your own image to a URL seems to be the key thing I was missing that isn't outlined there.

Well probably but I'm not going to do any editing of the code etc. to make that an icon in the post boxes etc. but what would be nice is if someone started a thread in the "Comments, Concerns" thread that instructs other members how to do things like this. I saw an ask there a month ago related to posting pics/video and I told the user that our bandwitdth was high enough with pics alone that we would not be adding hosted (AGS) video here.

I did not even know that there was still a free pic hosting site out there like that so it was news to me as well. Things will be changing with the site at the early part of next year so I don't want to go spend a portion of the money for the new on the refurbishing the old for a few months is my thinking on that.

[MSUBobcat]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: North Dakota State Bison
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Villanova Wildcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Central Arkansas Bears
9: William & Mary Tribe
10: Mercer Bears
11: Tarleton Texans
12: UC Davis Aggies
13: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
14: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
15: Lamar Cardinals
16: Rhode Island Rams
17: McNeese Cowboys
18: Southern Illinois Salukis
19: Sac State Hornets
20: Incarnate Word Cardinals
21: New Hampshire Wildcats
22: Stony Brook Seawolves
23: Illinois State Redbirds
24: Lehigh Mountain Hawks
25: Wofford Terriers


The Most Significant Win: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
The Most Significant Loss: Western Carolina Catamounts
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Southern Conference

IMO, your gap between UND and UM is too large given the H2H and trouncing what appears to be a decent enough ISU-o team, but perhaps you're giving credit for a tight road loss and fighting back against WCU.

The gap between Sac Stat and Davis is also too great (Sac is the better team, IMO, but they're close). They have a common opponent, with Sac thumping TAMU-Commerce on the road (pitching a shutout 34-0 to boot) while Davis won by just 14 at home. Davis also only beat SUU by 3 (on the road) and SUU just lost to the aforementioned Bengals 38-28, while Sac beat up on Nicholls 34-7. Massey has Nicholls at #40 and SUU at #42, so comparable teams with not-so-comparable results. Davis seems to have some injury issues on the defensive side, according to a fan on the BSC thread, so if those work out, you may be correct, but game results so far don't support a 7 spot advantage for UC Davis. xtwocentsx

[FU_Paladin08]

IMO, your gap between UND and UM is too large given the H2H and trouncing what appears to be a decent enough ISU-o team, but perhaps you're giving credit for a tight road loss and fighting back against WCU.

The gap between Sac Stat and Davis is also too great (Sac is the better team, IMO, but they're close). They have a common opponent, with Sac thumping TAMU-Commerce on the road (pitching a shutout 34-0 to boot) while Davis won by just 14 at home. Davis also only beat SUU by 3 (on the road) and SUU just lost to the aforementioned Bengals 38-28, while Sac beat up on Nicholls 34-7. Massey has Nicholls at #40 and SUU at #42, so comparable teams with not-so-comparable results. Davis seems to have some injury issues on the defensive side, according to a fan on the BSC thread, so if those work out, you may be correct, but game results so far don't support a 7 spot advantage for UC Davis. xtwocentsx
I wish I could tell you I put that much research into common opponents, and opponents of common opponents, and what not. That is absolutely necessary when splitting hairs between close teams and trying to sort out playoff seeds. Four weeks in and starting conference play I’m leaning heavily on D1 wins from a foundation of the preseason AGS poll. Some fantastic conference matchups against top 25 teams will get things moving quickly in week 5.

[MSUBobcat]

I wish I could tell you I put that much research into common opponents, and opponents of common opponents, and what not. That is absolutely necessary when splitting hairs between close teams and trying to sort out playoff seeds. Four weeks in and starting conference play I’m leaning heavily on D1 wins from a foundation of the preseason AGS poll. Some fantastic conference matchups against top 25 teams will get things moving quickly in week 5.

All good in subjective rankings, my friend! I appreciate your vote and also posting it publicly. Those were just some personal musings of teams that I follow most closely so I thought I'd mention them. My thoughts should be taken with a heaping helping of salt. It makes my crow taste slightly better. xlolx

Keep up the good work!

[FU_Paladin08]

I definitely need some insight on any Big Sky team below the top 3, ha!

[Redbird 4th & short]

So I find this extremely interesting. Throwing a little conditional formatting on your numbers makes it very clear the MVFC, Big Sky, and CAA are easily the most dominant of remaining teams (I see you SOCON, pulling up the 3rd position in the 25-hole, way to represent!). The Valley's gaudy 146 weeks in slot 1 is very eye-popping (thanks NDSU), but the CAA definitely dominates spots 6-25. Even with the 108-week deficit in spot 1, the CAA still has more total weeks ranked as you show (1339 to 1330).

Also interesting with how you displayed this information of CURRENT teams (does this include Delaware still?). That makes it easy to show what talent we've lost (22.0-29.7% of 1-5 ranked position weeks for example, 7-18% of slots 6-25). Who had the bulk of those transitioned rankings? Gotta imagine that would be JMU, App State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Sam Houston? Obviously some of those teams had many fewer years from 2004 to their move up, so some schools numbers may not reach too high.

Tabulating yearly data would be interesting to see how these numbers have changed through time. How have conferences actually changed --- whether that's lost talent to the FBS, gained talent from DII, or just programs and institutions inevitably changing through time? Clearly very strong programs have moved up, but how much "watering down" of the FCS has truly occurred that hasn't been equally backfilled (probably not answerable from this alone)? How many of these programs moved when they were on top? Running numbers on only teams present since 2004 (and still present) could help answer the backfilling question. NDSU/SDSU/UC Davis officially were D1 in 2004, but I think it would be fair to not include them as the OG's to this poll if those numbers were ran since they were in the midst of a transition. Other notable later additions were USD/UND, Incarnate Word, Central Arkansas, and I'm sure a few others that have some ranked weeks.

I'm mostly just thinking out loud here. But gosh darn it, data can be so sexy!
33486

Side note, maybe someday I'll figure out how to insert an image smoothly and effectively into my post like you, Dr. Chaos. But today is still not that day.

read my mind ... nice value add to MSUBobs work.

[Catbooster]

My poll for this week, with AGS ranking and difference between my ranking and AGS's in the two columns after the team's name. I do this once in a while to compare.



1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1
-


2
Montana State Bobcats
2
-


3
Idaho Vandals
3
-


4
South Dakota Coyotes
5
+1


5
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
7
+2


6
Central Arkansas Bears
9
+3


7
North Dakota State Bison
4
-3


8
Montana Grizzlies
8
-


9
Sacramento State Hornets
10
+1


10
Mercer Bears
11
+1


11
Villanova Wildcats
6
-5


12
Southern Illinois Salukis
15
+3


13
UC Davis Aggies
12
-1


14
William & Mary Tribe
13
-1


15
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
14
-1


16
Eastern Tennessee State Bucaneers
19
+3


17
Incarnate Word Cardinals
16
-1


18
Tarleton Texans
18
-


19
Wofford Terriers
22
+3


20
Abilene Christian Wildcats
20
-


21
Rhode Island Rams
24
+3


22
Illinois State Redbirds
17
-5


23
Richmond Spiders
21
-2


24
Western Carolina Catamounts
29
+5


25
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
36
+11

[BlueGoldAg]

IMO, your gap between UND and UM is too large given the H2H and trouncing what appears to be a decent enough ISU-o team, but perhaps you're giving credit for a tight road loss and fighting back against WCU.

The gap between Sac Stat and Davis is also too great (Sac is the better team, IMO, but they're close). They have a common opponent, with Sac thumping TAMU-Commerce on the road (pitching a shutout 34-0 to boot) while Davis won by just 14 at home. Davis also only beat SUU by 3 (on the road) and SUU just lost to the aforementioned Bengals 38-28, while Sac beat up on Nicholls 34-7. Massey has Nicholls at #40 and SUU at #42, so comparable teams with not-so-comparable results. Davis seems to have some injury issues on the defensive side, according to a fan on the BSC thread, so if those work out, you may be correct, but game results so far don't support a 7 spot advantage for UC Davis. xtwocentsx

Quite honestly, I'm not sure that UC Davis is a top 15 team for the reasons you pointed out. We have had a lot of key defensive players out due to injuries but, surprising, it's the defense that has kept us in the games we have won despite being very beat up. It's the offense that has yet to show up with any consistency. We have been pretty good between the 20 yard lines but have had to settle for a lot of FG's inside the red zone instead of TD's. Most of us Aggie fans do not have a good feeling about the game this weekend against Idaho. We haven't shown that we are capable of playing at their level yet.

[Nova09]

I still question Villanova getting lot of spillover love from last season when they were legit good. They lost a lot on offense. And their YSU win by 7 pts looks worse every week.



Nova deserves to be questioned. Unfortunately, I don't think we're gonna get much in the way of answers this whole year. That was my take away as YSU was ending. Was it first game weirdness? Nova dominance and letting up at the end? Closely matched teams over full 60? Questions, little answers...

From that point I looked at schedule and thought "we might not find anything out we don't already know the rest of the way." We know the running game is very good, and with who they play, it'll mostly be just running and wearing down to victory. Scores might not be flashy, but should get the job done.

Defense is at least good (I think better than that) but herein lies the problem: if we're running and controlling TOP and pace, defense might not be on the field for enough drives to get a true sense of how good they are, and benefit from being rested and not pushed to their limit most games.

What we really need to find out is twofold: how good will the passing game be when it NEEDS to be? Not how good is it when we throw a surprise play action that goes for big yards, but when run is slowed by a legit defense and stuck in passing situations, is it good enough for the key completions? And second related point: how good is the defense if offense is struggling? If d starts getting gassed from more minutes out there, if trailing and NEED a stop, what does the D show me?

But this all goes back to my first point, I think nova wins most games against mostly not impressive teams and does so in a not flashy way, sooo...what does that tell us about them?

[SDFS]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Villanova Wildcats
5: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Central Arkansas Bears
9: South Dakota Coyotes
10: Sac State Hornets
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: William & Mary Tribe
14: Mercer Bears
15: Southern Illinois Salukis
16: Chattanooga Mocs
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Wofford Terriers
19: Incarnate Word Cardinals
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
22: New Hampshire Wildcats
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Abilene Christian Wildcats

Really? You have UND ranked ahead of NDSU. Are you high? UND QB has 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. He can't throw the ball. UND is barely a Top 25 team right now.

He currently ranks 91 of 112 rated passers in the FCS according to NCAA.com. So, that puts him the with the lowest level programs of the FCS (Pioneer League, SWAC, NEC). The second UND hits the meat of the MVFC that house of cards is done.

[POD Knows]

Really? You have UND ranked ahead of NDSU. Are you high? UND QB has 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. He can't throw the ball. UND is barely a Top 25 team right now.

He currently ranks 91 of 112 rated passers in the FCS according to NCAA.com. So, that puts him the with the lowest level programs of the FCS (Pioneer League, SWAC, NEC). The second UND hits the meat of the MVFC that house of cards is done.
I absolutely have them higher, they are a better defensive team, their O line appears to be very good and they can run the ball, the passing game is not where it needs to be but it might get better. They also have a quality win over a ranked team, the best Bison win was a fluke over ETSU. The Bison D got exposed hard these past two weeks and I don't think we see much progress there, the issue is personnel in my opinion. NDSU is a good team offensively but I don't know how they will survive in a shoot out every game. NDSU is also going to lose this weekend at ISUr, so there is that.

[Reign of Terrier]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Villanova Wildcats
5: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
6: North Dakota State Bison
7: Montana Grizzlies
8: Central Arkansas Bears
9: South Dakota Coyotes
10: Sac State Hornets
11: UC Davis Aggies
12: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
13: William & Mary Tribe
14: Mercer Bears
15: Southern Illinois Salukis
16: Chattanooga Mocs
17: Richmond Spiders
18: Wofford Terriers
19: Incarnate Word Cardinals
20: Illinois State Redbirds
21: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
22: New Hampshire Wildcats
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Western Carolina Catamounts
25: Abilene Christian Wildcats

Concerning.

[POD Knows]

Concerning.
Damn it, nice catch, something happened in my poll on 9-15, because I had Wofford over Richmond in my 9-8 poll. I keep a spreadsheet attached to my email confirmation of my poll submissions and I think i flipped the two in my 9-15 poll and it carried over to this past weekends poll. It is corrected now in my "system", I also think that I have both of them ranked too high but that will short itself out.

Thanks for the heads up.

[Reign of Terrier]

Damn it, nice catch, something happened in my poll on 9-15, because I had Wofford over Richmond in my 9-8 poll. I keep a spreadsheet attached to my email confirmation of my poll submissions and I think i flipped the two in my 9-15 poll and it carried over to this past weekends poll. It is corrected now in my "system", I also think that I have both of them ranked too high but that will short itself out.

Thanks for the heads up.

Figured as much. I’m going to convert more people to the omnipotent science of a top 15 >:)

[Redbird 4th & short]

Really? You have UND ranked ahead of NDSU. Are you high? UND QB has 5 TD passes and 4 INTs. He can't throw the ball. UND is barely a Top 25 team right now.

He currently ranks 91 of 112 rated passers in the FCS according to NCAA.com. So, that puts him the with the lowest level programs of the FCS (Pioneer League, SWAC, NEC). The second UND hits the meat of the MVFC that house of cards is done.

They are 3-1, beating then #4 Montana (1st downs were 25 to 16), and only loss to now #18 Iowa St (3-0) ... both those games, their time of possession was around 37+ to 23 mins. Iowa St was up just 14-3 into Q4 before winning 21-3. UND held their own in ground game completely .. but your right, lost game in pass game. But were 11 of 20 on 3rd down against a very tough FBS team.

They seem to grind out first downs and own the clock. This might explain stronger defensive numbers since the 2 toughest teams both got less than 22 mins on the field .. limited # of drives and defense stays fresh. It adds up come 4th qtr.

Not sure I would put them ahead of NDSU either ... but UND ground game would likely give NDSU fits.

UND is without doubt top 8 level team at this point IMO .. lack of pass game may take a toll at some point, especially against a strong run defense. But until then .. they look legit.

[MTfan4life]

Who keeps giving NDSU a #1 vote? SDSU definitely wouldn't be giving up a combined 59 points to ETSU and Towson.

[POD Knows]

Who keeps giving NDSU a #1 vote? SDSU definitely wouldn't be giving up a combined 59 points to ETSU and Towson.
Somebody that hasn’t watched NDSU play this year.

[MTfan4life]

I guess maybe I dreamed Wofford beat Richmond.

Obviously it was those wins over juggernauts Charleston Southern and Delaware State that made Richmond's resume much more impressive than a team that beat them...

[Reign of Terrier]

Obviously it was those wins over juggernauts Charleston Southern and Delaware State that made Richmond's resume much more impressive than a team that beat them...
Voters are betting on Furman beating Wofford so Richmond> CSU > Furman > Wofford xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

Voters are betting on Furman beating Wofford so Richmond> CSU > Furman > Wofford xlolx

I'm not

[kdinva]

1: Montana State Bobcats
2: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
3: Idaho Vandals
4: North Dakota State Bison
5: Montana Grizzlies
6: Villanova Wildcats
7: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
8: South Dakota Coyotes
9: William & Mary Tribe
10: Central Arkansas Bears
11: Mercer Bears
12: Sac State Hornets
13: UC Davis Aggies
14: Illinois State Redbirds
15: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
16: Rhode Island Rams
17: Southern Illinois Salukis
18: New Hampshire Wildcats
19: East Tennessee State Buccaneers
20: Incarnate Word Cardinals
21: Lafayette Leopards
22: Wofford Terriers
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Richmond Spiders
25: Lehigh Mountain Hawks


The Most Significant Win: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
The Most Significant Loss: Campbell Fighting Camels