Socon 2024 predictions and power rankings - week 5

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer at Wofford
ETSU at the Citadel
Samford at Furman
Portland State at Chattanooga

Power Rankings
1. Mercer - Looks good, especially on defense. Some of their accomplishments are fading so far as PC and BC don’t look that great (BC hasn’t won a game), Chattanooga hasn’t won a game yet, and the Citadel has one win. None of that is incompatible with Mercer going on a run, but Wofford will be a good test.
2. ETSU - They seem to like to run the ball. I can’t make a good read of them so far, but the Elon win was decisive enough for me to put them here.
3. Wofford - Maybe a homer pick, but Amari Odom is going to be special for. Hopefully getting some beat up players on defense back after the bye. There’s a non-zero percent chance that the Richmond and GW OOC wins will be the best in the conference this year. Wofford’s played in tough, close games against close teams and won a couple. That’s going to give us an advantage going into conference play.
4. Western Carolina - If they didn’t lose to Campbell, they’d be higher. Their offense found something against Montana, but their defense showed some weakness too. They’re off this week, but the Wofford game in two weeks will be make or break.
5. Furman - they’re a dangerous team that’s going to push everyone in the conference. But not everything seems to be there. Too many mistakes on offense, the run game isn’t as dominant as it was, QB is super young and plays like it, defense is giving way too much in the run game.
6. Citadel - they are clearly better than last year. Drayton is building something. An ill-timed pick 6 against Mercer put them behind the 8 ball. I think they are in the same boat as Furman.
7. Chattanooga - Looked good against Georgia State, but that’s about it. Offense just seems uninspired. Their running back room is a step back from years past, and though Artopeus is good and experienced, I don’t think their passing game is so good that they can lean on it exclusively to win lots of games in the socon. The Mercer game was a good example of this. Thankfully their defense is very good and will keep them in lots of games.
8. Samford - they don’t have the offense they need to go on a run to the playoffs. Their defense is pretty meh.
9. VMI - I honestly don’t know if they can win a game this year. Last year they were 5-6, sure, but they lost lots of contributors on defense to the portal. Rocco is known as a defensive guy, but he’s basically having to rebuild on both sides of the ball. They don’t really have much of a passing threat, and though they have a good running back, because of the former, teams can stack the box against the latter.

[wcugrad95]

League play is now getting ready to truly crank up, and so as odd as it sounds after most of us have played 1/3rd of our schedule - I think the next 2 weeks will be where we actually find out a meaningful set of rankings. I wouldn't argue too much with most of what ROT has in terms or rankings or with a whole lot of his reasoning. But in the next 2 weeks:


If Mercer gets to 3-0 look out - they have ETSU, WCU, and Furman all having to travel to Macon
UTC should beat Portland State to get in the W column, and then if they beat ETSU the following week.... or I could go with some kind of vice-versa for the Bucs who could certainly win their next 2
Wofford could be at the top in 2 weeks, or they could be in the bottom half if they drop games against Mercer and @WCU


I could keep going down the list. And I am sure I could post a very similar comment each week given the parity in the league. But records matter and I won't cop-out like before and slightly switch his rankings:


Mercer
ETSU
Wofford
WCU
Furman
Chattanooga
Citadel
Samford
VMI


Picks:
Mercer @ Wofford
ETSU @ Citadel
Samford @ Furman
Portland State @ UTC

[FUBeAR]

Mercer at Wofford 1:30P
ETSU at the Citadel 2P
Samford at Furman 2P
Portland State at Chattanooga 7PFYP

Good effort though.

5 uppercase letters and inclusion of Kickoff Times…and you woulda nailed it!

[Reign of Terrier]

Also, when we are speculating about playoffs, it’s worth mentioning that non socon team has finished 8-4 and gotten in the playoffs. The committee doesn’t reward us for playing 12 games. I could see an exception for wofford, pending on how GW and Richmond shake out. I could also see chatt doing it with 2 fbs games, though they have been screwed by the committee before. Maybe ETSU too (they’ll need 8 wins to get 7 d1 wins)

All that to say, it may be socon championship or bust for the citadel, furman, Western, and VMI.

I’d say everyone else but Mercer (chatt, wofford, Samford, and ETSU) needs 6 conference wins to have a shot.

I’d feel best about being Mercer, Wofford, chatt, and ETSU.

Edit: As I look over this post though, I have a hard time thinking the committee would leave out an 8 win socon team this year because all but the citadel/ETSU would have won like 7 of 8 d1 games OR a good OOC win. Like if chatt finishes 8-4, they would have won 8 of 9 games (probably the socon title).

I dunno, it depends on the committee’s mood and if they value winning streaks over a bad loss.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR is letting SCIENCE take the wheel for another week…

FUBeAR’s SoCon POWER RANKINGS - Week 5



FUBeAR’s
Power
Rank
SoCon
Team
Massey
Projected
Overall Record
Massey
Projected
SoCon Record
Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish
Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details


1a
Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
11-1
8-0
1
Only projected loss is to Alabama. FUBeAR is not prepared, at this time to opine regarding his projection of the outcome of that contest, so he will leave Mr. Masseys thoughts in place, for now. [Unchanged from Week 4]


1b
Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)
8-4
7-1
2
loss to Mercer [Unchanged from Week 4]


3
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)
7-5
6-2
3
losses to Mercer, Furman [Unchanged from Week 4]


4
Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)
6-6
5-3
4
losses to Mercer, Furman, WCU [Unchanged from Week 4]


5
ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)
6-6
4-4
5
wins over CIT, VMI … AND now also winning over Samford & Wofford


6
Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)
5-7
3-5
6
losses to Mercer, FU, Chatt, WCU … AND now also losing to ETSU


7
Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)
4-8
2-6
7
losses to Mercer, FU, WCU, Chatt, Samford … AND now also losing to ETSU


8
Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)
3-9
1-7
8
Now winning over VMI


9
VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)
0-11
0-8
9
Now losing to CIT … and going 0’fer / 0’fer



- While tempted to drop Furman out of the top spot in his Power Rankings, but with the Paladins coming off a hard-fought, closer-than-the-score, heartbreaking loss to a Top 15 Team, FUBeAR just doesn’t see the science of such a change. The “1b” notation will have to suffice.

- In his heart FUBeAR believes…

….. - ETSU may be better than WCU & Chatt. FUBeAR has been tellin’ y’all and Coach Lamb is converting new believers every week.
….. - Wofford is probably better than Samford and will compete with the 4 Teams above them. Mercer will either provide the YardBarkers with validation of their return from FCS Purgatory this week or send them back for additional redemption for the sin for their previous Coaching hire.
….. - Samford will be challenged to compete with any of the 5 above them, plus, probably Wofford. The Hounds of Homewood have a chance to change FUBeAR’s mind about them in the shadows of Paris Mountain this week.
….. - CIT, as FUBeAR’s heart told him last week, is better than VMI, and may even be as good as or better than Samford and Wofford.

BUT …Can’t go with heart. Gotta go with SCIENCE!

[The Cats]

Mercer (4-0, 2-0 SoCom) at Wofford (2-1, 0-0 SoCon)
ETSU (2-2, 0-0 SoCon) at The Citadel (2-2, 0-1 SoCon)
Samford (1-2, 0-0 SoCon) at Furman (1-3, 0-0 SoCon)
Portland State (0-3) at Chattanooga (0-3)


Power rankings....

Last week's ranking are in parentheses.

1. (1) Mercer (4-0, 2-0 SoCon)
Next: at Wofford (2-1, 0-0 SoCon)

2. (5) ETSU (2-2, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: at The Citadel (2-2, 0-1 SoCon)

3. (2) Wofford (2-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Mercer (4-0, 2-0 SoCon)

4. (4) Western Carolina (1-3, 0-0SoCon)
Next: Bye Week

5. (3) Chattanooga (0-3, 0-1 SoCon)
Next: Portland State (0-3)

6. (6) Furman (1-3, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Samford (1-2, 0-0 SoCon )

7. (8) The Citadel (2-2, 0-1 SoCon)
Next: at Mercer (4-0, SoCon 2-0)

8. (7) Samford (1-2, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: at Furman (1-3, 0-0 SoCon)

9. (9) VMI (0-4, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Bye Week

[bonarae]

Wofford
ETSU
Furman
UTC

[FU_Paladin08]

Week 5 Rankings:
No changes from last week.


Mercer
Wofford
ETSU
Furman
Chatt
WCU
Samford
CIT
VMI

[gofurman]

Also, when we are speculating about playoffs, it’s worth mentioning that non socon team has finished 8-4 and gotten in the playoffs. The committee doesn’t reward us for playing 12 games. I could see an exception for wofford, pending on how GW and Richmond shake out. I could also see chatt doing it with 2 fbs games, though they have been screwed by the committee before. Maybe ETSU too (they’ll need 8 wins to get 7 d1 wins)

All that to say, it may be socon championship or bust for the citadel, furman, Western, and VMI.

I’d say everyone else but Mercer (chatt, wofford, Samford, and ETSU) needs 6 conference wins to have a shot.

I’d feel best about being Mercer, Wofford, chatt, and ETSU.

Edit: As I look over this post though, I have a hard time thinking the committee would leave out an 8 win socon team this year because all but the citadel/ETSU would have won like 7 of 8 d1 games OR a good OOC win. Like if chatt finishes 8-4, they would have won 8 of 9 games (probably the socon title).

I dunno, it depends on the committee’s mood and if they value winning streaks over a bad loss.

reignofterrier. Please check your private messages - I’m gonna send one in a minute.

what ! Furman and Wofford? Cats and dogs sleeping together lol

[SU DOG]

Power rankings are laughable at this point of the season, and I realize they are not projections as to how the end of the season will look. Still, I am compelled to say that Samford in 8th place next to VMI is an interesting scenario. I guess this in effect says right now that Samford would win one game and that would be vs the Keydets and go 1-7. We have never finished that low since being in the SoCon if my quick look-back is accurate. I think 7th in 2010 is our low water mark. So, what teams would I place above my Dogs right now in the PR? I absolutely don't know, but this team will not finish 1-7, I am sure of that, and that is why I don't do this list so early in the season. Having said that, it's all in good fun, and I even kinda like seeing us placed that low. I will, however, post my game picks later on in the week.

[FUBeAR]

Power rankings are laughable at this point of the season, and I realize they are not projections as to how the end of the season will look. Still, I am compelled to say that Samford in 8th place next to VMI is an interesting scenario. I guess this in effect says right now that Samford would win one game and that would be vs the Keydets and go 1-7. We have never finished that low since being in the SoCon if my quick look-back is accurate. I think 7th in 2010 is our low water mark. So, what teams would I place above my Dogs right now in the PR? I absolutely don't know, but this team will not finish 1-7, I am sure of that, and that is why I don't do this list so early in the season. Having said that, it's all in good fun, and I even kinda like seeing us placed that low. I will, however, post my game picks later on in the week.
Trust SCIENCE!

[wcugrad95]

I totally agree SU DOG - I expect in the end we have probably several 3-5/4-4/5-3 teams. It is the nature of the SOCON to beat up on each other AND to have a couple of totally unexplainable results. But just like voting for the top-25 the power rankings are more a current moment-in-time opinion. I still think we have really 4 tiers - Mercer, then ETSU and Wofford, then a bunch of us, then VMI. As mentioned, I fully expect my rankings to shift significantly in the next 2 weeks, and the SOCON being the SOCON they will probably shift every week.

[Reign of Terrier]

When it comes to power ranking and stuff like that, i think of it more of an average than anything. Good teams are usually much better than average teams or bad teams in terms of consistency. That’s why Wofford’s win over Furman was so huge last year. Honestly, maybe the biggest conference upset in socon history (second maybe only to Mercer beating chatt in 2015).

So yeah, rank ordering teams is fun and easy, but i expect a lot of messiness. I think VMI is going 0-8 in conference, but wouldn’t be surprised if there’s 1-3 teams sitting at 3-5, tied for 8th.

[caribbeanhen]

Trust Astrology !https://i0.wp.com/therevealer.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/First-Mercado.png?resize=975%2C536&ssl=1

[Reign of Terrier]

So if you’re a fan of any socon team, with the exception of VMI (who won’t win 6 games, let alone 8) you still have a reasonable shot to make the playoffs.

Since 2015 (after everyone was able to schedule full d1 post-app/gsu/elon), there are multiple teams that put themselves on the bubble….

After an 0-2 start (*Wofford 2019)
After an 0-3 start - one loss being FBS (Furman 2017*, Furman 2018)
An early OOC loss in september or august (Wofford 2019, *UTC 2015, *citadel 2015, UTC 2023
An early OOC loss that looked bad (, *UTC 2023, Furman 2018
An early loss to a team that ended below .500 (*UTC 2023, *Wofford 2019)
beinf .500ish half way through the season (*2016 Wofford, *Furman 2017, *2023 Mercer)

The bad news is that 4 losses is historically too big of a deficit to overcome early. But the past doesn’t predict the future



*made the playoffs

[gofurman]

When it comes to power ranking and stuff like that, i think of it more of an average than anything. Good teams are usually much better than average teams or bad teams in terms of consistency. That’s why Wofford’s win over Furman was so huge last year. Honestly, maybe the biggest conference upset in socon history (second maybe only to Mercer beating chatt in 2015).

So yeah, rank ordering teams is fun and easy, but i expect a lot of messiness. I think VMI is going 0-8 in conference, but wouldn’t be surprised if there’s 1-3 teams sitting at 3-5, tied for 8th.

------------------

NO. JUST NO.

I don't think that was such a huge upset. Big yes, huge - kinda sorta maybe?. Please read the whole post. We purposely SAT our QB (who is now playing for G5 Jax State and starting there !!). Our RB who got a PRO DAY - Dominic Roberto.. and MORE. I mean we purposely decimated our team to be healthy for the playoffs. AND. IT. WORKED.

FYI - you don't know the SoCon if you think Woff over FU last year was NEAR the biggest upset in SoCon history!!! - Furman (WE WERE NOT GOOD ) beat NUMBER 2 MARSHALL in 1993 and we WERE NOT GOOD. We went 5-5-1 and they were DOMINATING like SDSU now and winning national titles. That year they lost in the national title to Youngstown State.

Let me put it in PERSPECTIVE. Marshall lost to NC State by SEVEN. But lost to Furman by 14. And lost the NATIONAL TITLE GAME - so these were National Champion players.. .by TWELVE. Ours was the biggest margin of defeat for them all year. Despite getting to the National Title game and playing NC State. A 5-5-1 Furman team ??

You all - on the other hand - were dangerously improving by end of last year (almost beat Western etc and I think just beat Citadel... ) and we had our key guys held out on purpose as they were banged up bad (Huff never did really recover and Roberto - again, PRO DAY RB - played about 4 plays vs Montana .. ) ... that Marshall team was HEADS and SHOULDERS above last year's Furman team. And that hurts to admit. FCS was just so much better back then. These were the heady days of the BIG THREE. 1993 - I was there. Put it this way - yall were a 20 point Vegas Underdog last year and Vegas didn't know our guys were gonna be held out. SO I would honestly say a 14 point underdog at most. probably 12. Furman was a 35+ point underdog to Marshall who had all their players !! So OBJECTIVELY ya'll had a great win (!) - but not NEAR the win we had over Marshall. I do realiize this is before Wofford joined the SoCon. But your statement said - and I quote - "maybe the biggest conference upset in socon history". NO WAY, and I very much respect your posts. Well thought out. But if we are really saying SoCon, then last year was not even top 5 probably

VEGAS don't lie. Furman's upset was sizably larger - completely freakish. I saw both of those games. Ya'll had a great upset. But it was doable - key guys out, ya'll were undervalued and improving ! Furman's was just not even believable.. no way no how. The one I refer to would be like Furman right now beating SDSU this week - Recall that Marshall lost to NC State by 7 and the national title by 12 to a Powerhouse Youngstown State team.... But in our bad years somehow we beat them by 14

[Reign of Terrier]

Look, that Furman team was probably one of the best socon teams of the last 10 years. You know i mean it because 1) hate Furman 2) I think it was statistically the best defense of the spread era and 3) 5 of the best 10 socon teams of the last decade were wofford teams, and if I’m putting that Furman team above it…yeesh. And Wofford was 1-9 going into that game and beat citadel in the ugliest offensive game i have ever watched. A 4-5 team has somethings good working for it. Wofford had an okay defense and that was it. We were a bottom 20 FCS team and y’all were a top 5. It’s one thing if that happens in september but it happened in mid November!

i know there were injuries and extenuating circumstances and yes Wofford did get lucky…but that’s what made it probably a top socon upset all time.

[gofurman]

Look, that Furman team was probably one of the best socon teams of the last 10 years. You know i mean it because 1) hate Furman 2) I think it was statistically the best defense of the spread era and 3) 5 of the best 10 socon teams of the last decade were wofford teams, and if I’m putting that Furman team above it…yeesh. And Wofford was 1-9 going into that game and beat citadel in the ugliest offensive game i have ever watched. A 4-5 team has somethings good working for it. Wofford had an okay defense and that was it. We were a bottom 20 FCS team and y’all were a top 5. It’s one thing if that happens in september but it happened in mid November!

i know there were injuries and extenuating circumstances and yes Wofford did get lucky…but that’s what made it probably a top socon upset all time.

I guess we will have to disagree some. See, to me, the injuries and extenuating circumstances TAKE AWAY from the upset. If it was all of Furman vs all of Wofford and you won - absolutely a top/great upset... See, it was ALL of national runner-up Marshall. ALL OF THEM. If I looked back and they were missing their starting QB who later transferred UP and their all everything Running Back and etc and etc. I would be like "it was great and I loved it but there were asterisks - BIG asterisks !!

I will show my objectivity - Furman beat UNC 28 - 3. TWENTY EIGHT TO THREE !!!!!!!!! When they had both Julius Peppers playing and Ryan Sims (a serious pro DL). So modern day Clemson D Line (or better - Julius Peppers !!!!!!!). And yet they were on their 3rd or 4th QB (a HS QB but now a safety). I RELISH that upset. LOVE IT. But will admit there were "circumstances".

1999. Furman 28. UNC 3. With a top 10 DL of NFL History !!!!!!
Furman Football Squad Knocks Off UNC, 28-3 - University of North Carolina Athletics (goheels.com) (https://goheels.com/news/1999/10/30/205469190)

[wcugrad95]

I'll go into the way-back machine as well. When I was at Western, in the 1992 season we were a decent football team. Finished 7-4 but of course didn't make the playoffs losing a heartbreaker to App State 14-12 in the last game of the season (stop me if you have heard of Western losing a game to miss the playoffs before). Earlier in the year in back-to-back weeks we hosted #6 Citadel and then #2 Marshall. The Thundering Herd went on to win the national championship over Youngstown State that season. WCU lost to Citadel 36-31 but then turned around and beat Marshall 38-30.

If that is too far back, we'll go to 1998. Another so-so Western team who finished the year 6-5. But in the last game of the season we smacked #2 App State around 23-6. That Mountaineer team lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs, so the Marshall game was probably a bigger deal.

[Reign of Terrier]

As a side note, I will say that ETSU probably needs to be ranked. Just watched the highlights of the Elon game - and I know it’s a highlight - but they had a 31-7 lead at one point. I think it’s very much possible Elon is just not very good, but I still think that’s a good enough showing to warrant attention.

I’m cautious with Mercer and ETSU because they’re brand new teams. Mercer hasn’t played a spectacular opponent yet - Chatt hasn’t earned that credential - so their weaknesses (and every team has them) haven’t been pushed hard yet. ETSU has had lots of good, but it’s hard to tell if the bad they’ve shown is due to simply being overmatched. We’ll know more in a couple weeks for sure, but i like where those teams are. If they start out like 6-2 or something they’re probably playoff teams.

[gofurman]

I'll go into the way-back machine as well. When I was at Western, in the 1992 season we were a decent football team. Finished 7-4 but of course didn't make the playoffs losing a heartbreaker to App State 14-12 in the last game of the season (stop me if you have heard of Western losing a game to miss the playoffs before). Earlier in the year in back-to-back weeks we hosted #6 Citadel and then #2 Marshall. The Thundering Herd went on to win the national championship over Youngstown State that season. WCU lost to Citadel 36-31 but then turned around and beat Marshall 38-30.

If that is too far back, we'll go to 1998. Another so-so Western team who finished the year 6-5. But in the last game of the season we smacked #2 App State around 23-6. That Mountaineer team lost in the 2nd round of the playoffs, so the Marshall game was probably a bigger deal.

yeah. Don’t need to beat up Terrier too much. Just saying top upset in SoCon of all time - need to be careful with statements like that. To be fair, (see I am trying 😀) I get that Wofford probably looks at it since they joined the conference. 1996?

[gofurman]

So if you’re a fan of any socon team, with the exception of VMI (who won’t win 6 games, let alone 8) you still have a reasonable shot to make the playoffs.

Since 2015 (after everyone was able to schedule full d1 post-app/gsu/elon), there are multiple teams that put themselves on the bubble….

After an 0-2 start (*Wofford 2019)
After an 0-3 start - one loss being FBS (Furman 2017*, Furman 2018)
An early OOC loss in september or august (Wofford 2019, *UTC 2015, *citadel 2015, UTC 2023
An early OOC loss that looked bad (, *UTC 2023, Furman 2018
An early loss to a team that ended below .500 (*UTC 2023, *Wofford 2019)
beinf .500ish half way through the season (*2016 Wofford, *Furman 2017, *2023 Mercer)

The bad news is that 4 losses is historically too big of a deficit to overcome early. But the past doesn’t predict the future



*made the playoffs

Terrier. good stuff. I would appreciate a reply to my private message if you get a chance. Thanks ! Just your thoughts. I’ll send you an additional item

[Milktruck74]

While we are kinda piling it on ROT, and someone mentioned Marshall and 1993....Well, that was the year that the Mocs finished with 3 D1 wins (2-6 in the conference, only ahead of VMI). Those 1993 SoCon wins were against #1 Marshall and some mid tier purple team from South Carolina. I'd say that upset of Marshall would rank up there pretty close to Woffy/Furple last year.

Also, I think people do not realize how dominant teams at the top of the SoCon were back then. In fact the 23 year stretch from 85-07 there were only 4 Championship games that didn't feature at least one team from the SoCon. So to knock off a #1 ranked Marshall, or a #2 ranked Marshall by even a mid tier SoCon team, let alone a second to last team, was a HUGE DEAL!

[Reign of Terrier]

Just want to point out that all of you are old and it's wild that I'm like 16 years older than when I started posting here and I'm still one of the younger ones lol

[FUBeAR]

Just want to point out that all of you are old and it's wild that I'm like 16 years older than when I started posting here and I'm still one of the younger ones lol
For your records, cuz FUBeAR can tell you are a-keepin’ ‘em, FUBeAR began his AGS journey as a different incarnation almost 2 decades ago. Mark it down.

https://i.postimg.cc/s23McXHM/IMG-1359.jpg

[gofurman]

While we are kinda piling it on ROT, and someone mentioned Marshall and 1993....Well, that was the year that the Mocs finished with 3 D1 wins (2-6 in the conference, only ahead of VMI). Those 1993 SoCon wins were against #1 Marshall and some mid tier purple team from South Carolina. I'd say that upset of Marshall would rank up there pretty close to Woffy/Furple last year.

Also, I think people do not realize how dominant teams at the top of the SoCon were back then. In fact the 23 year stretch from 85-07 there were only 4 Championship games that didn't feature at least one team from the SoCon. So to knock off a #1 ranked Marshall, or a #2 ranked Marshall by even a mid tier SoCon team, let alone a second to last team, was a HUGE DEAL!

This ... so much THIS. It was AMAZING how dominant we were back then... Furman was maybe the least of the 3 and was in THREE NATIONAL TITLE GAMES ( 85, 88, 2001) and won ONE. And was often in the semifinals etc. And I am admitting we were the least of the BIG THREE in totality - GSU SIX(?) FCS NATIONAL TITLES. APP STATE THREE IN A ROW. People forget this.

[gofurman]

Just want to point out that all of you are old and it's wild that I'm like 16 years older than when I started posting here and I'm still one of the younger ones lol

Just wait until you hit 50+. Enjoy your 30s and 40s (I assume that's where you are :D) - everything starts to hurt when you hit 50

[gofurman]

https://i0.wp.com/therevealer.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/First-Mercado.png?resize=975%2C536&ssl=1



dang it. " caribbeanhen has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space."

Caribbeanhen - please delete a few of your messages (INBOX I ASSUME) so I can send you the reply... I think you will really like some of the answer

[ElCid]

dang it. " caribbeanhen has exceeded their stored private messages quota and cannot accept further messages until they clear some space."

Caribbeanhen - please delete a few of your messages (INBOX I ASSUME) so I can send you the reply... I think you will really like some of the answer

Man, you and Hen must have some bromance going on.

[FUBeAR]

This is interesting.

1/4 to 1/3rd of the way thru the season and the Pre-Season SoCon Offensive POY / 1st Team All SoCon QB is last (of the rated QB’s - VMI has split time between 3 QB’s…guess none of them have enough attempts to qualify for the SoCon Stats Leaderboard yet. The highest rated VMI QB is 92.2) in QB Rating and the 2nd Team Pre-Season All SoCon QB is next to last.

Whodathunk it?

Think these rankings will stay this way as we move into the shank of SoCon vs. SoCon games this week?

FUBeAR does find it logical (very SCIENCE-like) that the Top 2 QB’s play for the Teams he has rated as the Top 2 Teams in his SoCon Power Rankings. They say it’s all about the QB’s these days. Perhaps ‘they’ are right … scientifically speaking.



Name
Team
GP
Comp
Att
Comp%
Pass Yds
TD
Int
Yds/Att
Pass Yds/Game
Rating










DJ. Smith
Mercer
4
68
88
77.3
924
8
4
10.5
231.0
186.4




Trey Hedden
Furman
4
49
87
56.3
751
5
3
8.6
187.8
140.9


Jaylen King
ETSU
4
49
89
55.1
654
5
1
7.3
163.5
133.1


Amari Odom
Wofford
3
53
95
55.8
709
4
0
7.5
236.3
132.4


Quincy Crittendon
Samford
3
65
97
67.0
636
3
2
6.6
212.0
128.2


Johnathan Bennett
The Citadel
4
49
95
51.6
734
2
2
7.7
183.5
119.2


Chase Artopoeus
Chattanooga
3
41
80
51.2
632
2
3
7.9
210.7
118.4


Cole Gonzales
WCU
4
88
153
57.5
977
4
5
6.4
244.2
113.2




And…here’s what the Rushing Leaderboard shows. QB’s are Bolded.

Looks to FUBeAR that, rounding the 1st curve, Mercer’s QB, DJ Smith has the early lead for that SoCon OPOY Award. Jaylen King, ETSU’s QB, is right on his heels. We’ll see how Smith does against that resurgent LittlePup Defense this week. And playing the bellhops D in ChuckTown should present a nice challenge for King.



Name
Team
GP
Att
Yds
TD
Fum
Yds/Att
Rush Yds/Game
APYD






Bryson Irby
ETSU
4
50
354
4
0
7.1
88.5
361


Dwayne McGee
Mercer
4
74
334
2
0
4.5
83.5
363


Hunter Rice
VMI
4
56
292
3
0
5.2
73.0
345


Branson Adams
WCU
4
48
238
4
0
5.0
59.5
334




Corey Ibrahim
The Citadel
4
40
236
1
0
5.9
59.0
288


Devontae Houston
ETSU
3
28
197
1
0
7.0
65.7
223


Jaylen King
ETSU
4
39
189
2
1
4.8
47.2
189


Damonta Witherspoon
Samford
3
40
180
2
2
4.5
60.0
210


DJ. Smith
Mercer
4
39
159
3
0
4.1
39.8
159


Myion Hicks
Furman
4
35
151
1
2
4.3
37.8
147


Reggie Davis
Chattanooga
3
47
143
1
1
3.0
47.7
143


Ryan Ingram
Wofford
3
30
141
3
1
4.7
47.0
149


Cooper Wallace
The Citadel
4
34
130
1
0
3.8
32.5
163


Cole Gonzales
WCU
4
36
102
1
3
2.8
25.5
102


Quincy Crittendon
Samford
3
41
102
2
5
2.5
34.0
93


Johnathan Bennett
The Citadel
4
31
83
2
2
2.7
20.8
83


J.T. Smith
Wofford
3
20
79
1
0
4.0
26.3
127


Grant Robinson
Furman
4
36
76
2
0
2.1
19.0
109


Amari Odom
Wofford
3
22
19
0
4
0.9
6.3
19

[caribbeanhen]

DJ Smith has been the only player in the Southern Conference mentioned by name by CH, after watching one series back in week 1

[Reign of Terrier]

I’ll go ahead and say I don’t think the passing stats will stick. Hedden and Smith have each played at least one, but in Mercer’s case 2 awful defenses. It’s possibly the same case with Jaylen King, but we need more info. UVA wise isn’t too good, and i’m elon skeptical.

I think Wofford’s offensive stats will blow up in the second half of the season, especially running the ball. I don’t expect Ingram to lead the conference in rushing - he may be too far behind - but i think 1000 yards is on the table. Wofford has played 2 top 40 rush defenses in GW/Richmond, and I expect all of our former opponents to climb the rankings because they’ve played FBS opponents (and W&M”s run D looked impressive against Furman).

I’m a big fan of putting context to stats. Wofford only looks middling to above average on offense because we have played a tougher FCS OOC. Odom has a 55% completion percentage, but it would probably be higher had we not been in a clear hurry up situation against W&M and was like 3 of 13 in the last 4 minutes when it was obvious we had to pass. After Mercer, we have WCU&VMI (give up roughly 475+ ypg), Samford, Furman (who has defensive vulnerabilities), and the citadel (who isn’t bad, but isn’t good either).

I expect Smith to stay at the top of passing stats for Mercer - especially efficiency/passer rating because Mercer’s not going to put him in a position to fail (but we haven’t seen the bears play from behind). I think Artopeous and Gonzalez will climb too. I think Hunter Rice’s stats will drop on a per game basis as folks have already figured out VMI isn’t a passing threat

[FUBeAR]

RoT sez…
I think Wofford’s offensive stats will blow up in the second half of the season, especially running the ball.

FUBeAR finds Amari Odoms’ Rushing Stats interesting and somewhat puzzling.

After 4 career games, he has 29 Attempts for -2 yards with 6 Fumbles, and 0 TD’s.

Not particularly Payton-like without thru-the-roof Passing stats that are top of the charts nationally. His are mid-pack in the SoCon.


Based on RoT’s take, these Rushing Stats should probably improve for Odom, and for Wofford, overall, against Mercer’s as-yet-unchallenged Rush Defense …. that was near the top of the SoCon in ‘23 and, so far, at the top of the nation in ‘24.

[Reign of Terrier]

RoT sez…

FUBeAR finds Amari Odoms’ Rushing Stats interesting and somewhat puzzling.

After 4 career games, he has 29 Attempts for -2 yards with 6 Fumbles, and 0 TD’s.

Not particularly Payton-like without thru-the-roof Passing stats. His are mid-pack in the SoCon.


Based on RoT’s take, these Rushing Stats should probably improve for Odom, and for Wofford, overall, against Mercer’s as-yet-unchallenged Rush Defense …. that was near the top of the SoCon in ‘23 and, so far, at the top of the nation in ‘24.

Now take out sack yardage (11 for -92)But I also said 0 about Odom running the ball. If anything he needs to run more. Lots of his sack, fumble, and loss yardage stats come from holding the ball too long.

Wofford’s offense will take off in the second half of the season because of Odom’s passing ability and Ingram running the ball, as well as JT smith both running and catching and Kyle Watkins probably breaking a receiving school record at some point. You should watch Wofford play more, you’d understand what’s going on a little better.

[wcugrad95]

If the Montana game is an indication, I expect Gonzalez should start climbing at least statistically as I think we will continue to pass more. He had an absolute stinker against Campbell that still hurts.

And in case anybody missed it, he also suffered a slight shoulder separation to his non-throwing arm. He didn’t come out, and luckily we have our bye this week to get several guys healed up. But something to keep an eye on. He didn’t look as sharp after the roughing the passer hit he took, but some of that had to do with better/tighter coverage by the Griz.

[FUBeAR]

Now take out sack yardage. But I also said 0 about Odom running the ball. If anything he needs to run more. Lots of his sack, fumble, and loss yardage stats come from holding the back. I know it’s 8-56 for sack yardage just for the last 3 games.

Wofford’s offense will take off in the second half of the season because of Odom’s passing ability and Ingram running the ball, as well as JT smith both running and catching. You should watch Wofford play more, you’d understand what’s going on a little better.
Are you interested in funding FUBeAR’s FloSports subscription so he can complete his watching of ALL of Woffy’s 2024 body of work?

Odom’s 4 game career stats are what they are. Sacks count. 10,000 words of quibbling and qualifying is not going to change those stats. He’ll have a great opportunity to begin to improve those against Mercer’s untested Defense this week.

Wofford is definitely improved all over the field and their level of Coaching is night & day. The PorchYappers will be competitive in every SoCon game they play this season.

Highly doubtful we will see a result similar to any of these this Saturday…will let y’all know the exact outcome by Friday.



Date
Season
Location
Score


10/21/2023
2023
Macon, Ga.
Mercer W 31 - 17


10/1/2022
2022
Spartanburg, S.C.
Mercer W 42 - 7


10/23/2021
2021
Macon, Ga.
Mercer W 45 - 14

[Reign of Terrier]

Are you interested in funding FUBeAR’s FloSports subscription so he can complete his watching of ALL of Woffy’s 2024 body of work?

Odom’s 4 game career stats are what they are. Sacks count. 10,000 words of quibbling and qualifying is not going to change those stats. He’ll have a great opportunity to begin to improve those against Mercer’s untested Defense this week.

Wofford is definitely improved all over the field and their level of Coaching is night & day. The PorchYappers will be competitive in every SoCon game they play this season.

Highly doubtful we will see a result similar to any of these this Saturday…will let y’all know the exact outcome by Friday.



Date
Season
Location
Score


10/21/2023
2023
Macon, Ga.
Mercer W 31 - 17


10/1/2022
2022
Spartanburg, S.C.
Mercer W 42 - 7


10/23/2021
2021
Macon, Ga.
Mercer W 45 - 14




Here.


https://youtu.be/jopMWq-x0MU?feature=shared

[FUBeAR]

Here.


https://youtu.be/jopMWq-x0MU?feature=shared
FUBeAR could only make it thru the 1st 7 minutes before his smarm bucket overflowed.

Saw Odom get sacked twice for a Safety & a near-Safety. Did see another Woffy QB with a nice run and saw the Woffy Placekicker complete a 1st down pass in that 7 minutes though.

Impressive.

[Reign of Terrier]

FUBeAR could only make it thru the 1st 7 minutes before his smarm bucket overflowed.

Saw Odom get sacked twice for a Safety & a near-Safety. Did see another QB with a nice run and saw the Placekicker complete a 1st down pass in that 7 minutes though.

Impressive. Give it 20 more seconds. Skip to 7:10

[FUBeAR]

Give it 20 more seconds. Skip to 7:10
Maybe - after a turpentine shower. That oozing smarm is sweetgum sticky.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, I finally grew the stomach to look at the not-fourth-down by W&M. Go to 13:36 and see where the line to gain is. Then look at the split second where the first down yardage marker is. He had to get to the hash for the first, but when they give him the first, the marker is clearly short. This is not a situation where there was a bad spot that gave them the first down, and W&M ran a quick play. This is a situation where it’s clear that the outside ref thought he had first down gave it to him, but the ref with a better look marked him short. That’s okay, that happens all the time! The problem is they went with the shorter ref and gave him a first anyway! That’s bad! They didn’t even measure.

https://youtu.be/7e91dD4h_jQ?feature=shared

Is it consequential for the sake of the game? Who knows. If it’s thoroughly established as fourth down and W&M huddles up and runs a clean play, not rushed, they may well make the first. But seeing this unfold in real time was demoralizing and the refs should probably be reprimanded for this high school mistake.

And then the same thing happens 14:28 smh

I’m not going to whine about this forever, because the real reason we lost is because our pressure couldn’t land and Wilson found the holes in our zone defenses on third down, and Odom missed a couple throws. But if Wofford is on the bubble for either the playoffs or a seed, this should be brought up. Because a situation where Wofford isn’t chasing the lead in the fourth quarter or W&M is chasing points does change the nature of that game.

[FUBeAR]

So, I finally grew the stomach to look at the not-fourth-down by W&M. Go to 13:36 and see where the line to gain is. Then look at the split second where the first down yardage marker is. He had to get to the hash for the first, but when they give him the first, the marker is clearly short. This is not a situation where there was a bad spot that gave them the first down, and W&M ran a quick play. This is a situation where it’s clear that the outside ref thought he had first down gave it to him, but the ref with a better look marked him short. That’s okay, that happens all the time! The problem is they went with the shorter ref and gave him a first anyway! That’s bad! They didn’t even measure.

https://youtu.be/7e91dD4h_jQ?feature=shared

Is it consequential for the sake of the game? Who knows. If it’s thoroughly established as fourth down and W&M huddles up and runs a clean play, not rushed, they may well make the first. But seeing this unfold in real time was demoralizing and the refs should probably be reprimanded for this high school mistake.

And then the same thing happens 14:28 smh

I’m not going to whine about this forever, because the real reason we lost is because our pressure couldn’t land and Wilson found the holes in our zone defenses on third down, and Odom missed a couple throws. But if Wofford is on the bubble for either the playoffs or a seed, this should be brought up. Because a situation where Wofford isn’t chasing the lead in the fourth quarter or W&M is chasing points does change the nature of that game.You, seriously, want the Playoff Selection Committee to consider a ‘bad 1st down spot’ in the 3rd quarter of an early September game to determine whether to grant Woffy a Playoff bid and leave another Team out?

Sure - can hear the Chairman of the Committee on ESPN Selection Show Sunday…

”Y’know Jim, we thought long and hard about the last Team IN. It came down to Wofford and North Dakota State, both at 7-5 and 7-4 in FCS. But when we thought deeply about it, we just had to put that bad early September 3rd quarter 1st down spot that Wofford experienced into the equation and leave the Bison at home.”


Also - giving them WAY too much credit. Based on numerous prior year decisions, FUBeAR is not 100% convinced any of them have ever watched a Football game that didn’t involve their employer.

[ElCid]

So, I finally grew the stomach to look at the not-fourth-down by W&M. Go to 13:36 and see where the line to gain is. Then look at the split second where the first down yardage marker is. He had to get to the hash for the first, but when they give him the first, the marker is clearly short. This is not a situation where there was a bad spot that gave them the first down, and W&M ran a quick play. This is a situation where it’s clear that the outside ref thought he had first down gave it to him, but the ref with a better look marked him short. That’s okay, that happens all the time! The problem is they went with the shorter ref and gave him a first anyway! That’s bad! They didn’t even measure.

https://youtu.be/7e91dD4h_jQ?feature=shared

Is it consequential for the sake of the game? Who knows. If it’s thoroughly established as fourth down and W&M huddles up and runs a clean play, not rushed, they may well make the first. But seeing this unfold in real time was demoralizing and the refs should probably be reprimanded for this high school mistake.

And then the same thing happens 14:28 smh

I’m not going to whine about this forever, because the real reason we lost is because our pressure couldn’t land and Wilson found the holes in our zone defenses on third down, and Odom missed a couple throws. But if Wofford is on the bubble for either the playoffs or a seed, this should be brought up. Because a situation where Wofford isn’t chasing the lead in the fourth quarter or W&M is chasing points does change the nature of that game.

We've all seen bad calls. They happen. I still have seen nothing about our 1st and ten play against N Greenville being reviewed, and overturned after 10 minutes. Only issue was they returned the ball to the previous spot for a 4 and one!!?!

[wcugrad95]

Going back a few posts to the QB talk, I wanted to expand it a little to overall offense. My feeling for Western is we are more what you saw against NC State and Montana than the relative ugliness from the Campbell and even Elon games. In one of the other threads there was talk about maybe it was Kade Bell who made the Bell offense go, but I think the new OC has to get his legs under him (he played for Kerwin at Jacksonville and coached alongside Kade at both Tusculum and Western). So either he is getting better, or Kerwin is taking on more of the offensive play calling versus just the higher-level game plan.

But the biggest thing we were missing the last few weeks was the big-play guy. Hard to lose Dez Reid at RB and Censere Lee and David White at WR and not have field-stretchers to replace them. The hope in Catamount land is that De'Andre Tamarez is now giving us that threat. Montana had a very hard time covering him, and I personally wish we would have kept going back to the well with deep throws. His stat line on Saturday - 8 catches, 229 yards, 1 TD and he drew a couple of PI calls on deep balls where the Montana DB was beat. Cal Jones and AJ Columbo are very good posession receivers, but the Cats needed a deep threat.

[FUBeAR]

More stats - this time of the Team variety.

This view is substantially available at the SoCon website, but FUBeAR added a few things and added a more comprehensive ranking metric…

Thoughts?



Team
FUBeAR STATS RANK
TOTAL RANK PTS
GP
PPG
OPP
PPG
PPG
DIFF
PPG DIFF RANK
TOTAL
YDS/GAME
OPP TOTAL YDS/GAME

TOTAL YDS/GAME
DIFF

TOTAL YDS/GAME DIFF RANK
PASS YDS/GAME
OPP PASS YDS/GAME
PASS YDS/GAME DIFF
PASS YDS/GAME DIFF RANK
RUSH YDS/GAME
OPP RUSH YDS/GAME
RUSH YDS/GAME DIFF
RUSH YDS/GAME DIFF RANK


Mercer
1
5
4
35.5
9.0
26.5
1
425.8
243.5
182.3
1
240.2
211.0
29.2
2
185.5
32.5
153.0
1


ETSU
2
10
4
35.0
22.5
12.5
2
447.8
341.2
106.6
2
207.0
211.8
-4.8
4
240.8
129.5
111.3
2


Wofford
3
14
3
22.7
22.3
0.3
4
345.7
348.7
-3.0
3
241.0
184.0
57.0
1
104.7
164.7
-60.0
6


CIT
4
16
4
29.2
20.5
8.8
3
343.5
366.5
-23.0
4
191.8
211.8
-20.0
6
151.8
154.8
-3.0
3


Furman
5
22
4
23.0
35.2
-12.2
6
341.0
438.8
-97.8
5
246.0
228.2
17.8
3
95.0
210.5
-115.5
8


WCU
6
23
4
24.0
31.2
-7.2
5
373.8
485.5
-111.7
6
260.2
278.0
-17.8
5
113.5
207.5
-94.0
7


Samford
7
26
3
16.0
30.0
-14.0
7
325.0
432.3
-107.3
7
212.0
281.0
-69.0
8
113.0
151.3
-38.3
4


Chatt.
8
32
3
9.0
34.3
-25.3
8
271.0
465.3
-194.3
8
214.7
251.7
-37.0
7
56.3
213.7
-157.4
9


VMI
8
32
4
13.0
41.8
-28.8
9
231.5
465.5
-234.0
9
118.0
310.0
-192.0
9
113.5
155.5
-42.0
5

[wcugrad95]

I was going to try and look at stats across the league against FCS scholarship competition (no stat-padding from Pioneer or D2 type games but no getting crushed for FBS ones, either) to try and make it somewhat apples-to-apples. Still not exact given the variance of OOC strenth of schedule for some teams. But it will have to do. Might take a little time, and for some teams that will be only 1 game (UTC) and for most others it will be 2 games. For WCU it would be 3.

But as an example, Mercer has 3 games. They had a total of 287 yards against the Mocs - 12 of 17 passing for 103 yards and 52 rushes for 184 yards. UTC is typically a good defense. The Bears had 465 yards against Bethune (244 passing and 221 rushing). They had 433 against Citadel (253 and 180). That would be an average of 395 yards (200 passing / 195 rushing). It would also be an average of 26.33 points per game. I'll lookup all 9 teams and put it in a pretty chart.

[FUBeAR]

I was going to try and look at stats across the league against FCS scholarship competition (no stat-padding from Pioneer or D2 type games but no getting crushed for FBS ones, either) to try and make it somewhat apples-to-apples. Still not exact given the variance of OOC strenth of schedule for some teams. But it will have to do. Might take a little time, and for some teams that will be only 1 game (UTC) and for most others it will be 2 games. For WCU it would be 3.

But as an example, Mercer has 3 games. They had a total of 287 yards against the Mocs - 12 of 17 passing for 103 yards and 52 rushes for 184 yards. UTC is typically a good defense. The Bears had 465 yards against Bethune (244 passing and 221 rushing). They had 433 against Citadel (253 and 180). That would be an average of 395 yards (200 passing / 195 rushing). It would also be an average of 26.33 points per game. I'll lookup all 9 teams and put it in a pretty chart.
Logical … theoretically, but not enough data….IFBO…to make the juice worth the squeeze if you just ‘strip out’ the Non-FCS Full Schollie games (see below)…

…unless you want to get into modeling, maybe using multipliers … something like (for Offensive Stats) .75 for lower level 1.25 for FBS G5 1.5 for FBS P5 and the inverses for Defensive Stats. Then, of course, only use/think about per game stats to equalize the 3 vs. 4 game Teams

FCS Full Schollie Games
CIT - 3
Mercer - 3
VMI - 3
WCU - 3
Woffy - 3
ETSU - 2
Furman - 2
Samford - 2
Chatt - 1

…have fun with that!

[wcugrad95]

Team
Games Played
Avg Pts For
Avg Pts Against
Difference
Rank
Avg Passing
Avg Rushing
Total
Rank
Passing Against
Rushing Against
Total
Rank


Citadel
3
21.00
27.33
(6.33)
6
225
118
343
6
249
163
412
7


ETSU
2
34.50
26.00
8.50
2
173
263
436
1
219
158
376
6


Furman
2
22.00
29.00
(7.00)
T-7
250
93
342
7
121
249
370
5


Mercer
3
26.33
8.67
17.67
1
200
195
395
2
241
35
276
1


Samford
2
20.50
22.50
(2.00)
4
244
142
385
3
189
144
333
3


UTC
1
3.00
10.00
(7.00)
T-7
259
19
278
8
103
184
287
2


VMI
3
15.00
36.00
(21.00)
9
127
147
274
9
286
144
430
8


WCU
3
25.00
29.00
(4.00)
5
267
111
378
4
265
209
473
9


Wofford
3
22.67
22.33
0.33
3
241
105
346
5
184
165
349
4



It's in a spreadsheet, so I can add as we play more games. Simply have the teams in alphabetical order. No bias - it will just get better with more games and these are simply the numbers to date. Might be worth revisiting after everybody has at least 4 games under their belt. Eventually taking point differential, offensive rank, and defensive rank to come up with ​something.

[wcugrad95]

Not much talk about the actual games so far. Don't we have a big showdown in Sparkle City this Saturday? And a big game in Travelers Rest where Furple will be watching the refs closely? And a Citadel/ETSU match-up that should either really help us figuring out power rankings or throw a monkey wrench in the whole thing? And an OOC matchup for the Mocs to show they are the best 0-3 team in the country?

Some pretty intriguing games.

[FUBeAR]

Team
FUBeAR Total Stats Rank (95 Method)
FUBeAR Total Stats Rank Pts (95 Method)
FCS Full Schollie Games Played
Avg Pts For
Avg Pts Against
Difference
Rank
Avg Passing
Avg Rushing
Total
Rank
Passing Against
Rushing Against
Total
Rank


Citadel
T-7
19
3
21.00
27.33
(6.33)
6
225
118
343
6
249
163
412
7


ETSU
2
9
2
34.50
26.00
8.50
2
173
263
436
1
219
158
376
6


Furman
T-7
19
2
22.00
29.00
(7.00)
T-7
250
93
342
7
121
249
370
5


Mercer
1
4
3
26.33
8.67
17.67
1
200
195
395
2
241
35
276
1


Samford
3
10
2
20.50
22.50
(2.00)
4
244
142
385
3
189
144
333
3


UTC
5
17
1
3.00
10.00
(7.00)
T-7
259
19
278
8
103
184
287
2


VMI
9
26
3
15.00
36.00
(21.00)
9
127
147
274
9
286
144
430
8


WCU
6
18
3
25.00
29.00
(4.00)
5
267
111
378
4
265
209
473
9


Wofford
4
12
3
22.67
22.33
0.33
3
241
105
346
5
184
165
349
4



It's in a spreadsheet, so I can add as we play more games. Simply have the teams in alphabetical order. No bias - it will just get better with more games and these are simply the numbers to date. Might be worth revisiting after everybody has at least 4 games under their belt. Eventually taking point differential, offensive rank, and defensive rank to come up with ​something.

Added a couple of columns. FUBeAR is a big fan of reducing things to 1 number. That way he doesn’t, usually, have to take off his shoes to math.

[wcugrad95]

Yeah - something like that Foobs. I'd probably want to give more weight to point differential since that is what matters most. But your stat method is what might be telling in a couple of weeks.

[FUBeAR]

Yeah - something like that Foobs. I'd probably want to give more weight to point differential since that is what matters most. But your stat method is what might be telling in a couple of weeks.
Ask and ye shall receive…



Team
FUBeAR Total Stats Rank (95 Method 2.0)
FUBeAR Total Stats Rank Pts (95 Method 2.0)
FCS Full Schollie Games Played
Avg Pts For
Avg Pts Against
Difference
Rank
Avg Passing
Avg Rushing
Total
Rank
Passing Against
Rushing Against
Total
Rank


Citadel
5
26
3
21.00
27.33
(6.33)
6
225
118
343
6
249
163
412
14


ETSU
2
16
2
34.50
26.00
8.50
2
173
263
436
2
219
158
376
12


Furman
8
31
2
22.00
29.00
(7.00)
T-7
250
93
342
14
121
249
370
10


Mercer
1
11
3
26.33
8.67
17.67
1
200
195
395
8
241
35
276
2


Samford
4
22
2
20.50
22.50
(2.00)
4
244
142
385
12
189
144
333
6


UTC
T-6
27
1
3.00
10.00
(7.00)
T-7
259
19
278
16
103
184
287
4


VMI
9
43
3
15.00
36.00
(21.00)
9
127
147
274
18
286
144
430
16


WCU
T-6
27
3
25.00
29.00
(4.00)
5
267
111
378
4
265
209
473
18


Wofford
3
21
3
22.67
22.33
0.33
3
241
105
346
10
184
165
349
8

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

It has been a while since I last posted in one of these threads. I see that Wofford and ETSU have greatly improved this season. I am going to take a swing at where I am at:

1) Mercer - undefeated and the early favorite to score the program's first conference title.
2) ETSU - crowned champions of the Paul Hamilton Bowl
3) Wofford - did good so far
4) The Citadel - showed some level of improvement
5) Western Carolina - had nothing to be ashamed of against Montana
6) Furman - had a rough start so far
7) Samford - darn near lost to a SWAC team
8) Chattanooga - strength of schedule places them here
9) VMI - they're fabulous, fabulously bad

This Week's Games
Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Bears continue their winning ways
ETSU @ The Citadel - Bucs get a convincing win on the road
Samford @ Furman - Paladins defend their house
Portland State @ Chattanooga - Mocs score their first win

[gofurman]

It has been a while since I last posted in one of these threads. I see that Wofford and ETSU have greatly improved this season. I am going to take a swing at where I am at:

1) Mercer - undefeated and the early favorite to score the program's first conference title.
2) ETSU - crowned champions of the Paul Hamilton Bowl
3) Wofford - did good so far
4) The Citadel - showed some level of improvement
5) Western Carolina - had nothing to be ashamed of against Montana
6) Furman - had a rough start so far
7) Samford - darn near lost to a SWAC team
8) Chattanooga - strength of schedule places them here
9) VMI - they're fabulous, fabulously bad

This Week's Games
Mercer @ Wofford (Game of the Week) - Bears continue their winning ways
ETSU @ The Citadel - Bucs get a convincing win on the road
Samford @ Furman - Paladins defend their house
Portland State @ Chattanooga - Mocs score their first win

glad your ETSU guys have improved. Sort of. Lol

i want it on record that Furman is probably a dangerous spoiler this year. We did the same in 2021. 6-5

2021. 6-5
2022. Bad call or win SoCon. Made playoffs - Best Elon in playoffs…. Lost close game in 2nd round of playoffs
2023. Win SoCon. Playoffs. Earn bye. Win second round v Chattanooga. Lose double OT in quarterfinals at Montana.

I could see a similar patter emerging from this year. I know I’ve said it. But it’s freakish youth. TRUE FR QB. RFR Center. Freshman Cbs. Two freshman CBs. Sometimes a freshman RB. think about that from a pass pro perspective. True fr QB. RFR Center. Freshman RB to pick up blitz package. . And now with a senior all conference WR missing we have 3 WRs at Fr. Fr. Sophomore. And TE is Sophomore also. Our OL has a one senior.

just saying I am just looking for improvement this year. Honestly could see a 4 win season

[FUBeAR]

Here’s an interesting stat that FUBeAR heard about in Mercer’s post-game Press Conference after their CIT game …

From the PC game, thru their next 2 games, and to the game with the bellhops, Mercer’s Defense ran up a streak of 30 consecutive denials of 3rd Down Conversions to their opponents’ Offenses!

Reckon has anyone ever tracked such a stat and what is the FCS/I-AA or D1 record?

Interestingly, when asked about Mercer D’s performance vs. CIT, All SoCon LB, Isaac Dowling, said something about not getting off the field on 3rd Downs (CIT was 6 of 15) and needing to clean that up … as the first thing out of his mouth.

Also, note that Mercer’s opponents are converting 3rd Downs at almost twice the rate against their other opponents (which include 4 FBS Teams and 4 lower division Teams - so, let’s call that a ‘wash to the FCS mean’ … to be fair) that they did against Mercer.

[FUBeAR]

Not much talk about the actual games so far. Don't we have a big showdown in Sparkle City this Saturday? And a big game in Travelers Rest where Furple will be watching the refs closely? And a Citadel/ETSU match-up that should either really help us figuring out power rankings or throw a monkey wrench in the whole thing? And an OOC matchup for the Mocs to show they are the best 0-3 team in the country?

Some pretty intriguing games.

All righty … this should prompt some thought … or perhaps 10,000 words in 9 long paragraphs…

Mercer @ Wofford … we have a kinda sorta Common Opponent Comparison.

- Wofford just barely squeaked out a come-from-2-scores-behind-in-the-4th-quarter, 1 point win over Gardner-Webb, needing a late-game 45 yard Field Goal to, finally, eke out a most fortunate win.

- Mercer absolutely demolished Presbyterian - 63-10. PC only had 2 possessions that gained over 15 yards and was outgained 500 yards to 137 - much of that against Mercer’s backups as the game was well-in-hand before halftime. It was pretty much like Furman @ Ole Miss or Chatt @ UTenn.

- PC, last week, was down 1 score @ half and trailed Gardner-Webb by only 1 score a third of the way thru the 4th quarter. PC put up over 300 yards of Offense @ G-W.


Don’t think FUBeAR is gonna project something like Mercer 49 - Woffy 7, but this Common-ish Opponent comparison might lead less informed Prediculators to do so. Yes?

[SU DOG]

FUB citing 3rd down conversions is one of the straws I am grasping at. The young Furman Offense has a terrible percentage rate of success in that area. Now granted, that stat isn't one of the biggies for determining an outcome (too many variables to consider), but please let me have some hope for my team. My other straw is that the talent of the Samford front seven is way underestimated. Holding a team to under 50 yards total offense in the second half is not an easy task against any team. I'm not saying Alabama State is a good team, but they do have a 233-pound all-conference RB running behind an O-Line that goes 6'4.5" and averages 313 pounds. Hatcher said in his postgame that Quincy took a hit that caused him to be less than 100%. Also, IMO, Hatcher is known to sometimes play not to lose when we should be attacking. Having said all this, I am not at all sold on our secondary. The chunk plays that Furman can get could be the difference. Hedden can definitely throw the long ball with accuracy.

There are some of my thoughts on this contest. I will go with my heart and pick the Bulldogs along with Mercer, ETSU, and UTC.

[SU DOG]

First line out for this game is DRatings Predictor which has Furman with a 72.7% chance for the win. Point wise, FU is favored by about 7 points.

[FUBeAR]

FUB citing 3rd down conversions is one of the straws I am grasping at. The young Furman Offense has a terrible percentage rate of success in that area. Now granted, that stat isn't one of the biggies for determining an outcome (too many variables to consider), but please let me have some hope for my team. My other straw is that the talent of the Samford front seven is way underestimated. Holding a team to under 50 yards total offense in the second half is not an easy task against any team. I'm not saying Alabama State is a good team, but they do have a 233-pound all-conference RB running behind an O-Line that goes 6'4.5" and averages 313 pounds. Hatcher said in his postgame that Quincy took a hit that caused him to be less than 100%. Also, IMO, Hatcher is known to sometimes play not to lose when we should be attacking. Having said all this, I am not at all sold on our secondary. The chunk plays that Furman can get could be the difference. Hedden can definitely throw the long ball with accuracy.

There are some of my thoughts on this contest. I will go with my heart and pick the Bulldogs along with Mercer, ETSU, and UTC.
When not facing an undefeated FBS SEC #6 Team, Furman’s 3rd Down Conversion % is .001 behind FCS Top 5 Idaho.

Also, when considering the Stat that SHOULD, IFBO, be used - 3rd Down + 4th Down Conversions (using the 3rd Down Conversion denominator to calculate the stat) - as it more accurately reflects Offenses’ ability to ‘stay on the field,’ Furman’s “Drive Continuation Rate,” extrapolated as above, nearly doubles its 3rd Down Conversion rate.

Though not exactly “fair” to compare because the others are not calculated using FUBeAR’s “DCR” metric & are not ‘extrapolated,’ Furman’s DCR, as extrapolated above, is in the Top 25 in 3rd Down Conversion % in FCS.

Sorry, SU DOG, you gonna have to find another peg of hope upon which to hang your leash & collar.

[FUBeAR]

First line out for this game is DRatings Predictor which has Furman with a 72.7% chance for the win. Point wise, FU is favored by about 7 points.
Massey is in line with that - 64% chance of an FU victory by 6 points (30-24).

[Reign of Terrier]

All righty … this should prompt some thought … or perhaps 10,000 words in 9 long paragraphs…

Mercer @ Wofford … we have a kinda sorta Common Opponent Comparison.

- Wofford just barely squeaked out a come-from-double-digits-behind-in-the-4th-quarter, 1 point win over Gardner-Webb, needing a late-game 45 yard Field Goal to, finally, eke out a most fortunate win.

- Mercer absolutely demolished Presbyterian - 63-10. PC only had 2 possessions that gained over 15 yards and was outgained 500 yards to 137 - much of that against Mercer’s backups as the game was well-in-hand before halftime. It was pretty much like Furman @ Ole Miss or Chatt @ UTenn.

- PC, last week, was down 1 score @ half and trailed Gardner-Webb by only 1 score a third of the way thru the 4th quarter. PC put up over 300 yards of Offense @ G-W.


Don’t think FUBeAR is gonna project something like Mercer 49 - Woffy 7, but this Common-ish Opponent comparison might lead less informed Prediculators to do so. Yes?

We weren’t behind double digits. Wofford left about 17 points on the field. We gave GW good field position throughout and they couldn’t capitalize.

I watched the game, it never really was in doubt, but there was definitely frustration among GW that they weren’t stomping them worse. GW was up 21-0. PC benefited from some trick plays, an INT, and 45 yards worth of personal foul penalties by GW. PC made it more interesting, which is kind of expected in week 4 relative to week 1. GW let up 5 explosive plays which amounted to over half of their production. I’m not prepared to say PC has a better offense than JMU.

Meanwhile, a D2 team put more points on the on Bethune Cookman than Mercer. Should we sound the alarm on the Mercer offense?

[SU DOG]

Hard to follow your Extrapolating FUB, but you are the one that used the plain 3rd down conversion stat to talk about the Mercer defense. Leaving out Ole Miss, Furman's stats are 5-16 vs Chas Southern, 3-10 vs Stetson, and 2-11 vs William & Mary. Now if you want to somehow claim a 3rd down conversion rate of 27% vs 3 FCS Teams (and one in name only) as one of the best in the country, so be it. Did you ever work for that old website where you could take your team and show by some long drawn-out score process that they are #1 in the country? LOL! Thanks, but I think I will hold onto that straw. It may not help me Saturday, but for now it isn't breaking.

[wcugrad95]

Mercer @ Wofford:
I think Mercer showed that they are plenty good in a nice win against Citadel last week, and they continue to show they are very tough to run the football against. But Citadel had success through the air (336 yards on only 19 completions - 17.68 ypc). While I know 1 score came on a pick-6 (for both teams), that game was 28-21 roughly halfway through the 3rd quarter. Citadel's offense was #6 in the league in my stupid ratings (purely total yards per game). Wofford has shown a knack for keeping games close so far, and they are #5 in my stupid offense rating. I think the zebras could be involved, turnovers will be extremely important, and the Terriers end up with some nice passing yards but come up a little short. Closer than Mercer v Citadel, but a similar vibe and stats, but maybe a little less point production. Caveat again is zebras and turnovers.

ETSU at Citadel:
ETSU is currently the hot/it/darling team with an effort that fell short against the Bizun and then a really solid win at Elon this past week. Citadel is way better than a season ago, and has a QB who can make some throws. The Bulldogs have kept all their FCS games close and are the home team, but I think the combo of King at QB and Irby at RB will be too much and like the Bucs in this one.

Samford at Furman:
Samford is the team that make my ratings look stupid so far. They played in an ugly game and won against Alabama State. The put up some big offenseive numbers in a loss to West Georgia that people might have thought was OK based on West Georgia's roster, but then that Wolves team went and lost their next 2 games by 14 and 19 points. Furman is having to replace seemingly 75% of the 2-deep and have turned to a promising but still true FR at QB. Even so, Furman showed some signs of life in a loss at William & Mary last week. Since the game is at Furple I will go with the Paladins pulling out another close game. But same as the showcase SOCON game this week - zebras and turnovers could be a factor.

Portland State @ Chattanooga:
I expect the Mocs are eager to get back on the field to prove their 0-3 start has more to do with them playing 3 pretty good teams than it means they are a bad one. Oddly, BOTH of these teams have 2 FBS losses and neither has a win yet. In the Vikings only FCS game to date, they gave up 46 points and 535 yards (316 on the ground) to Weber State. In Chatty's only FCS games, they were in a slugfest with Mercer. UTC has not looked real good running the football yet, but I think the Mocs get their offense on-track and secure their first win by a wide margin.

[FUBeAR]

1) We weren’t behind double digits.

B) Should we sound the alarm on the Mercer offense?
1) Apologies - FUBeAR meant to use the more accurate and more descriptive terminology…

- Wofford just barely squeaked out a come-from-2-scores-behind-in-the-4th-quarter, 1 point win over Gardner-Webb, needing a late-game 45 yard Field Goal to, finally, eke out a most fortunate win.

Will edit the original so as to not mislead anyone about how much Wofford late-game trailed a team that escaped with a win from a Team that Mercer curb-stomped.


B) Mercer’s Offense is evolving. Regardless of the relative scores, production, stats, etc. - having watched each of their 4 games - they have improved each game. Returning, really only the starting Center and Left Guard, as significant contributors from their 2023 Team, that makes sense. Definitely a work-in-progress.

[kdinva]

Mercer 34; Wofford 28
ETSU 31; The Citadel 20
Furman 42, Samford 20
UTC 34; Port. St. 16

[ElCid]

ETSU 34 at The Citadel 26
Mercer 21 at Wofford 17
Port. St. 17 at UTC 38
Samford 21 at Furman 35

Mercer
Wofford
ETSU
WCU
UTC
Furman
The Citadel
Samford
VMI

[GRIZ1948]

Having watched WCU the last year and watched their game against Montana last weekend I don't see them losing to Furman and they might take Mercer--we see a 8-4 WCU team making the playoffs largely due to their fine battle in Missoula and conference play. WCU is due to get going now after a tough preseason.

[GRIZ1948]

If the Montana game is an indication, I expect Gonzalez should start climbing at least statistically as I think we will continue to pass more. He had an absolute stinker against Campbell that still hurts.

And in case anybody missed it, he also suffered a slight shoulder separation to his non-throwing arm. He didn’t come out, and luckily we have our bye this week to get several guys healed up. But something to keep an eye on. He didn’t look as sharp after the roughing the passer hit he took, but some of that had to do with better/tighter coverage by the Griz.

Gonzales is a stud and a very good QB and he showed that in Missoula last weekend.

[wcugrad95]

GRIZ1948 has easily moved into first place on my Montana Griz fan poll :)

[FU_Paladin08]

Picks:
Mercer over Wofford
ETSU over Citadel
Furman over Samford
UTC over Portland State

[OrangeAndBlack]

Wofford has been consistent in the passing game. 0 interceptions and ~250 yards per game. At least one 35ish yard pass play per game. So it’s nearly a certainty they’ll hit a couple big pass plays. I would assume they’ll attempt a lot of them. On defense, let’s give Wofford their first INT! And maybe add another fumble to their record.

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford has been consistent in the passing game. 0 interceptions and ~250 yards per game. At least one 35ish yard pass play per game. So it’s nearly a certainty they’ll hit a couple big pass plays. I would assume they’ll attempt a lot of them. On defense, let’s give Wofford their first INT! And maybe add another fumble to their record.

So it’s a little bit misleading. Odom did throw 1 INT against W&M, but it was nullified because of a roughing the passer call. HOWEVER, the caveat even to that pick was that it was 4th and 25 and he had to get it out of there anyway.

What makes Odom special as a redshirt freshman is that he doesn’t make many mistakes passing. His main weakness is holding the ball too long, and either not getting rid of it or not scrambling. That’s usually not a problem with a guy with that kind of athleticism. Pretty much all of his fumbles come from that.

I put the probability of Mercer getting a couple sacks as high and at least one turnover. Meanwhile, if that doesn’t happen, that probably means Wofford wins big.

[FUBeAR]

GRIZ1948 has easily moved into first place on my Montana Griz fan poll :)
https://i.postimg.cc/yNZZ12MX/IMG-1360.jpg

[FUBeAR]

Wofford has been consistent in the passing game. 0 interceptions and ~250 yards per game. At least one 35ish yard pass play per game. So it’s nearly a certainty they’ll hit a couple big pass plays. I would assume they’ll attempt a lot of them. On defense, let’s give Wofford their first INT! And maybe add another fumble to their record.
Yep.

Reckon, though, if they gonna try all that Sprint Out Passing on Saturday?

Odom throws quite well (usually) on the run. Don’t see that now like we used to in the 70’s and 80’s. FUBeAR remembers Billy Lott from Clemson lightin’ us up with it one Saturday. Perry Tuttle musta had about 10 catches on what we used to call Drag routes or on Backside Posts (not Skinny Posts … old school 45 degree angle Posts) from Lott off those Sprint Outs. Woffy Head Coach Watson remembers that Passing game. He’s even older than FUBeAR.

Only difference is Lott could Sprint out right OR left, and if going left, would get his hips & shoulders squared up while on the dead run and rip it - right on target. FUBeAR, in watching 2 games & 7 minutes of a highlight show, hasn’t seen Odom sprint out to his left even 1 time. Probably ran 10-15 full Sprint Out Passes to his right though. A bit like a Point Guard who can’t go to his left in Hoops, perhaps.

Mercer’s DC, Coach Brown, watches video and he don’t need FUBeAR to tell him what to expect & perhaps, ‘overplay’ (to continue the Hoops analogy). Add to this that Odom has fumbled at a rate of about 1 time for every 5 (recorded) Rushing Attempts and FUBeAR is going to expect to see, particularly, Mercer’s speedy & aggressive DE’s Braden Manley and Carson Griffin, along with similarly gifted Mercer LB’s Ken Standley and Marques Thomas (3 of those in the Top 5 among SoCon Sacks Leaders) in looking for 1 or more of that “4S’s” work (Sack, Strip, Scoop, and Score) they put on Chatt’s QB Artopoeus…before a Mercer Defensive TD was bogusly overturned and ruled a Chatt incompletion “on Review.”

We will see. Maybe Odom CAN throw going to his left and maybe he CAN keep from putting the ball on the ground.

[ElCid]

Any word on issues with PSU at Chatty? Storm is pretty much going to hit Chattanooga around noon tomorrow. They are saying TS force still. I'll believe that when I see it. Should be good by game time, but power and travel might be an issue.

[caribbeanhen]

CH took Wofford in the pick em game

why? The QB

I’ll be checking on you boys/LLCs to see who you picked

[FUBeAR]

CH took Wofford in the pick em game

why? The QB

I’ll be checking on you boys/LLCs to see who you picked
The Sprint Out (left OR right) Lott to Tuttle connection in Death Valley in ‘79 cautionary tale didn’t convince you otherwise, huh?

[Reign of Terrier]

Odom fwiw sprint left twice just in the second half of the william and mary game alone, so don’t trust the #fakenewsfubearmedia. One of them he dropped the snap and threw off the timing. 85% of the time Odom is pure magic, the other 15% you remember he’s played less than 5 college games.

W&M was Odom’s worst game by far - he probably missed more receivers (albeit only slightly) in that game than the other 3 combined. A handful of them were on those sprint out right routes. I’m not really worried though, Watson’s had about two weeks to coach him up.

The mistakes he makes comes from the plays where the first two reads are covered and he doesn’t commit. All of his career fumbles are on pass attempts and like half of them are when he’s been in the process of getting rid of it on the way down. I want to see him scramble. There are lots of situations where if he scrambles instead of looking down field, we would get the next down more manageable. On our second to last drive, before we turned it over on downs, he needed to do that on 3rd down, it would have been 4th and 3-7 as opposed to 4th and 11.

Some would say this just shows an indecisive QB, but Wofford’s offense is very west coast and thus more timing oriented than other offenses (on average), and bad things usually happen after like the 3rd or 4th second after snap. If anything, Odom’s weakness isn’t indecisiveness, it’s not giving up on a passing play in time. Sometimes it works out - thinking of our TD drive before half against Richmond, but a lot of times it doesn’t.

It’s the little stuff like that which is the difference between being very good and great. He’ll get there. Shawn Wartson has coached lots of QBs from Teddy Bridgewater to Sean Klatt, and he’s said that he can only think of one QB with better instincts. As far as I can remember, I don’t think Wofford’s been led by a redshirt freshman at QB since Shawn Graves, though Joe Newman was close and comparable. If he starts judging busted plays better, he’s going to be a force.

[FUBeAR]

Odom fwiw sprint left twice just in the second half of the william and mary game alone, so don’t trust the #fakenewsfubearmedia. One of them he dropped the snap and threw off the timing.
Oops…

FUBeAR did miss that one time (at band camp) that Odom actually ran a rollout to his Left in 3 games (vs. ~50 to his Right). Have reviewed now and he did complete a pass for a 1st Down on that play. And, the ball traveled nearly 10 yards in the air on that 1 pass…which is nice; so he has that going for him.

And, yeah…the other one, although Odom never actually rolled/sprinted Left, RoT is correct in that it looks like the play may have been designed for him to do that, but when he dropped the perfect snap, FUBeAR (among at least 1 other) lost focus and didn’t register it as him rolling/sprinting Left…because he actually didn’t…a slight drift left post-snap-bobble … maybe. No worries … happens to a lot of right-handed-only Point Guards when they try to go to their left…double-dribble / traveling, etc. When it’s just not natural for them, mistakes happen.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think you’re inventing a reason to be critical of him, considering most of his passes are just straight drop backs. If Mercer overloads one side, Wofford will just adjust. We can do that now with a balanced attack.

[FUBeAR]

I think you’re inventing a reason to be critical of him, considering most of his passes are just straight drop backs. If Mercer overloads one side, Wofford will just adjust. We can do that now with a balanced attack.
https://c.tenor.com/QwsUv6Em3O8AAAAC/tenor.gif

17 Sprint Outs in 2 games + 7 minutes of Coach’s highlight show. 1 (actually) to the Left.

And… you don’t “overload” - you analyze various formations / motions / field position (YL & Hash) / downs & distances / personnel tendencies and call Defensive “plays” (or audibles / checks), accordingly, that are likely to disrupt such. Odom is not fast. He is an effective & somewhat elusive ’smart’ runner (who also has exceptional pocket presence at this stage of his development), but he cannot outrun Mercer’s Speedy/Aggressive LB’s / Edge Players if they have the ‘drop’ and the angle on him on a nekkid Sprintout.

Good news for you is bye week for Woffy gave them more time for self-scout tendency analysis. So, they may be able to disguise it better.

But, seriously, extrapolating, Woffy prolly ran a total of about 20 - 25 Sprint Outs - which were most often ‘nekkid’ (no blockers / protectors with QB). Almost exclusively to the right and from the left hash with a shift and/or pre-snap motion toward the playside - so, a Sprint Flood or Boot Flood. They LOVE that play!

FUBeAR, as DC, is gonna guess right 1 or 2 times in the 7 or 8 times it’s comin’ and if the Players execute properly, it’s gonna blow up a FR QB who has had significant difficulty holding on to the Football.

[FUBeAR]

Still looking to obey 95’s command, let’s do some head-to-head look-in at Samford @ Furman…

QB Matchup


Name
Team
GP
Comp
Att
Comp/GP
Att/GP
Comp %
Yds
TD
INT
YPC
YPA
YPG
Sack
Pass
Rating
Rush Att
Rush Yds
Rush Yds/Att
Rush Yds/GP
TD
FUM


Trey Hedden
FU
4
49
87
12.3
21.8
56.3
751
5
3
15.3
8.6
187.8
9
140.9
16
-19
-1.2
-4.75
1
4


Quincy Crittendon
SU
3
65
97
21.7
32.3
67.0
635
3
2
9.8
6.6
212.0
5
128.2
41
102
2.5
34.0
2
5



Toss-up? Probably. But…the fact that any FU QB is a “toss-up” with a Samford QB, with the usual astronomical numbers Samford QB’s put up, is …
ADVANTAGE: Furman


Top RB’s Matchup


Name
Team
GP
Att
Yds
TD
FUM
YPA
Yds/GP


Damonta Witherspoon
SU
3
49
180
2
2
4.5
60.0


Myion Hicks
FU
4
35
151
1
2
4.3
36.8


Grant Robinson
FU
4
36
76
2
0
2.1
19.0



Nothing interesting to see here, as far as FUBeAR is concerned. Both Teams need a field trip to St. Vincent’s of Lambeau where they should beg for forgiveness at the Altar of the Green & the Gold.
ADVANTAGE: Youth Football Private Quarterback Coaches

BTW - The current Starting QB for St. Vincent’s Green Bay Packers is a Roswell Hornet. Shoutout to the Killa Bees! Back when he wore the Kelly Green & White, we let him chunk it around a little bit, but we still ran the dang Football… A LOT … and WELL!!


Top 4 Receivers Matchup


Name
TEAM
GP
Recp
Yds
TD
Fum
YPR
YPG


Joshua Harris
FU
3
13
257
2
0
19.8
85.7


Ben Ferguson
FU
4
10
213
1
0
21.3
53.2


Colton Hinton
FU
4
16
153
2
1
9.6
38.2


Brock Chappell
FU
4
8
96
1
0
12.0
24.0


FURMAN TOTAL

4
47
719
6
1
15.3
179.8


Brendan Jenkins
SU
3
12
211
1
0
17.6
70.3


Iaan Cousin
SU
3
12
173
1
0
14.4
57.7


E. Jai Mason
SU
3
13
82
0
0
6.3
27.3


DJ Rias
SU
3
10
75
0
1
7.5
25.0


SAMFORD TOTAL

3
47
541
2
1
11.5
180.3



See “QB Matchup” above for narrative. Samford…2 Passing TD’s to their Top 4 Retrievers in 3 games. That’s ground for declaring a State of Emergency in Homewood!
ADVANTAGE: Furman


*May add Top Defense Players comparison to this later … may not.

[wcugrad95]

Is Harris back for FU?

[caribbeanhen]

https://c.tenor.com/QwsUv6Em3O8AAAAC/tenor.gif

17 Sprint Outs in 2 games + 7 minutes of Coach’s highlight show. 1 (actually) to the Left.

And… you don’t “overload” - you analyze various formations / motions / field position (YL & Hash) / downs & distances / personnel tendencies and call Defensive “plays” (or audibles / checks), accordingly, that are likely to disrupt such. Odom is not fast. He is an effective & somewhat elusive ’smart’ runner (who also has exceptional pocket presence at this stage of his development), but he cannot outrun Mercer’s Speedy/Aggressive LB’s / Edge Players if they have the ‘drop’ and the angle on him on a nekkid Sprintout.

Good news for you is bye week for Woffy gave them more time for self-scout tendency analysis. So, they may be able to disguise it better.

But, seriously, extrapolating, Woffy prolly ran a total of about 20 - 25 Sprint Outs (almost exclusively right) - which were most often ‘nekkid’ (no blockers / protectors with QB). Almost exclusively to the right and from the left hash with a shift and/or pre-snap motion toward the playside - so, a Sprint Flood or Boot Flood. They LOVE that play!

FUBeAR, as DC, is gonna guess right 1 or 2 times in the 7 or 8 times it’s comin’ and if the Players execute properly, it’s gonna blow up a FR QB who has had significant difficulty holding on to the Football.

wow, you've done some serious scouting and let the Italian PM slip away in the process. I would say the Woffy QB looks like a playmaker and if the play is not there, he will find a way to make a play, the opposition can scheme and plan, but you can't account for an athlete sometimes no matter how hard you try.

This is the reason the good coaches know it's about players

[FUBeAR]

wow, you've done some serious scouting and let the Italian PM slip away in the process. I would say the Woffy QB looks like a playmaker and if the play is not there, he will find a way to make a play, the opposition can scheme and plan, but you can't account for an athlete sometimes no matter how hard you try.

This is the reason the good coaches know it's about players
Of course. Coach Jacobs & Coach Hendrix don’t keep FUBeAR on Retainer for no reason.

”Player will find a way…” - You’ve, obviously, never faced a FUBeAR-Coached Football Team

And - finally - It’s almost entirely about Players in the P4, where Coaches are paid in the 10’s of millions of $’s.

It’s much, much more about the Coaches in FCS. Not just about scheme & game management (which are HUGE), but also ID’ing/Recruiting less than 3-Star talent, Developing (so they can & will execute to near perfection), and Retaining that talent.

[caribbeanhen]

Of course. Coach Jacobs & Coach Hendrix don’t keep FUBeAR on Retainer for no reason.

”Player will find a way…” - You’ve, obviously, never faced a FUBeAR-Coached Football Team

And - finally - It’s almost entirely about Players in the P4, where Coaches are paid in the 10’s of millions of $’s.

It’s much, much more about the Coaches in FCS. Not just about scheme & game management (which are HUGE), but also ID’ing/Recruiting less than 3-Star talent, Developing (so they can & will execute to near perfection), and Retaining that talent.

Jaqueez Ezzard

[Reign of Terrier]

FU Bear isn’t wrong about the whole scheming standpoint, but he’s overplaying the sprint-right pattern as more consequential than any other tendency(Odom’s thrown 95 passes this year and only about 20 of them were of the variety he’s talking about).

What’s great about Wofford’s offense now - and it is different from other pro spread offenses is two-fold: commitment to balance run-pass and west coast passing principles. Our passing game is probably more dependent on timing than the average offense. You beat it by being the receivers to the place they’re trying to be on the field or by getting sufficient pressure. A good example of a team kind of doing this was Furman in 2022 (I say kind of because we still got lots of yardage).

The problem is that if you’re too aggressive or drop too many back, Wofford will run the ball or key into how you’re overplaying. And if you’re not good in the secondary, you’ll get picked apart. Wofford’s offense was okay in 2022 once Jimmy Weirick clicked in the system about half way through the season (went on a stretch where he threw like 12 TDs and 1 INT). But we didn’t have a good defense and our run game was bad because our OL coaching was really bad. Last season, our offensive troubles came down to not having the right (or at least ready passing game).

This year, we have a run game, a defense, and a QB who can run the system. We aren’t immune from three and outs, but we typically get better as the game goes on, and our starts have gotten progressively better.

I’m optimistic that playing Richmond and GW will help Wofford, simply because they also play 4 man fronts, and similarly try to smother the run. They easily had us befuddled early, but we were soon able to move the ball and take advantage of their aggressiveness.

[caribbeanhen]

FU Bear isn’t wrong about the whole scheming standpoint, but he’s overplaying the sprint-right pattern as more consequential than any other tendency(Odom’s thrown 95 passes this year and only about 20 of them were of the variety he’s talking about).

What’s great about Wofford’s offense now - and it is different from other pro spread offenses is two-fold: commitment to balance run-pass and west coast passing principles. Our passing game is probably more dependent on timing than the average offense. You beat it by being the receivers to the place they’re trying to be on the field or by getting sufficient pressure. A good example of a team kind of doing this was Furman in 2022 (I say kind of because we still got lots of yardage).

The problem is that if you’re too aggressive or drop too many back, Wofford will run the ball or key into how you’re overplaying. And if you’re not good in the secondary, you’ll get picked apart. Wofford’s offense was okay in 2022 once Jimmy Weirick clicked in the system about half way through the season (went on a stretch where he threw like 12 TDs and 1 INT). But we didn’t have a good defense and our run game was bad because our OL coaching was really bad. Last season, our offensive troubles came down to not having the right (or at least ready passing game).

This year, we have a run game, a defense, and a QB who can run the system. We aren’t immune from three and outs, but we typically get better as the game goes on, and our starts have gotten progressively better.

I’m optimistic that playing Richmond and GW will help Wofford, simply because they also play 4 man fronts, and similarly try to smother the run. They easily had us befuddled early, but we were soon able to move the ball and take advantage of their aggressiveness.

FuBeaR might not be wrong, but he's not spilling the whole truth either.

Team A vs Team B on a neutral field

both teams have top notch coaches that excel equally at preparation, scheming, strategy and adjusting on game day, In other words, they are equally great coaches

but Team A has slightly better talent

who is your money on? I'll go with Team A every time

this is why recruiting is such a big deal, coaches jobs depend on getting the best players

[FUBeAR]

FU Bear … he’s overplaying the sprint-right pattern as more consequential than any other tendency(Odom’s thrown 95 passes this year and only about 20 of them were of the variety he’s talking about).

OK …

…IF Woffy runs a minimum of 7 Sprintouts or Bootlegs Right and Mercer does NOT sack Odom (or any other Woffy QB that may replace Odom) on at least 1 of those, FUBeAR will change his AGS Avatar to the image of RoT’s choosing from Sunday 9/29 until Sunday 11/3

OTOH, IF those conditions ARE met, RoT will change his AGS Avatar to the pic below for that same period of time.

Bet?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYc6HPLa4AAMkOt?format=jpg&name=240x240

[FUBeAR]

FuBeaR might not be wrong, but he's not spilling the whole truth either.

Team A vs Team B on a neutral field

both teams have top notch coaches that excel equally at preparation, scheming, strategy and adjusting on game day, In other words, they are equally great coaches

but Team A has slightly better talent

who is your money on? I'll go with Team A every time

this is why recruiting is such a big deal, coaches jobs depend on getting the best players
With that premise, only a Bear with an even littler brain than FUBeAR’s (if that’s possible) would choose Team B.

Better question….

Team A has better Talent than Team B. Let’s define it as a difference of “Talent +1”
Team B has better Coaching than Team A by an exactly equal amount as the Talent difference as defined above … “Coaching +1”

FUBeAR would bet on Team B all 8 days in every week.

[wcugrad95]

FWIW, I actually found several different lines for some of the SOCON games this weekend. Here are what most of them look like.

Mercer -4.5 over Wofford with an over/under of 45.5 - roughly a Mercer 25-21 win
ETSU -15.5 over Citadel with an over/under of 53.5 - roughly an ETSU 34-19 win
Furman -5.5 over Samford with an over/under of 50.5 - roughly a Furman 28-23 win
UTC -9.5 (I saw this as low as 5.5) over Portland State with an over/under of 58.5 - roughly a Mocs 34-24 win

[caribbeanhen]

With that premise, only a Bear with an even littler brain than FUBeAR’s (if that’s possible) would choose Team B.

Better question….

Team A has better Talent than Team B. Let’s define it as a difference of “Talent +1”
Team B has better Coaching than Team A by an exactly equal amount as the Talent difference as defined above … “Coaching +1”

FUBeAR would bet on Team B all 8 days in every week.

now we’re getting somewhere

I think it was last year when I tried to motivate or almost beg somebody with scheming up a mathematical equation factoring in talent level and coaching expertise of a team that produces a score factor of given team

No takers

[Reign of Terrier]

OK …

…IF Woffy runs a minimum of 7 Sprintouts or Bootlegs Right and Mercer does NOT sack Odom (or any other Woffy QB that may replace Odom) on at least 1 of those, FUBeAR will change his AGS Avatar to the image of RoT’s choosing from Sunday 9/29 until Sunday 11/3

OTOH, IF those conditions ARE met, RoT will change his AGS Avatar to the pic below for that same period of time.

Bet?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYc6HPLa4AAMkOt?format=jpg&name=240x240
I’m already assuming we get sacked a couple times, and priced that in my prediction that we still win, so why would I change my profile picture for a win on a minute detail?

- - - Updated - - -


FWIW, I actually found several different lines for some of the SOCON games this weekend. Here are what most of them look like.

Mercer -4.5 over Wofford with an over/under of 45.5 - roughly a Mercer 25-21 win
ETSU -15.5 over Citadel with an over/under of 53.5 - roughly an ETSU 34-19 win
Furman -5.5 over Samford with an over/under of 50.5 - roughly a Furman 28-23 win
UTC -9.5 (I saw this as low as 5.5) over Portland State with an over/under of 58.5 - roughly a Mocs 34-24 win

Good lines. I’d pick UTC to cover and that’s about it.

[FUBeAR]

I’m already assuming we get sacked a couple times, and priced that in my prediction that we still win, so why would I change my profile picture for a win on a minute detail?
https://i.imgflip.com/4sndpt.jpg

[wcugrad95]

Saw this pic of Finley Stadium in Chattanooga...

33492

[JALMOND]

Saw this pic of Finley Stadium in Chattanooga...

33492

Do you suppose UTC could loan us a boat? We couldn't get one on the plane.

[FUBeAR]

Crap!

https://furmanpaladins.com/news/2024/9/27/furman-football-womens-soccer-games-postponed.aspx

GREENVILLE, S.C. -- Furman's football game versus Samford and the Paladins' women's soccer game against Western Carolina, which were scheduled to be played Saturday in Greenville, have been postponed due to the effects of Hurricane Helene, Furman Vice President of Intercollegiate Athletics Jason Donnelly has announced.

The Furman University campus will be closed on Saturday.

Further details regarding these events will be announced at a later date.

[SU DOG]

Hey 95 is the official WCU site down? May be me, but no luck when I click on it.

[FUBeAR]

Saw this pic of Finley Stadium in Chattanooga...

33492larger pic

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYfPc9LWsAAy8vF?format=jpg&name=large

[Reign of Terrier]

Watched the citadel Mercer game for a second time and will say the Citadel is definitely better than last year, but they haven’t gotten up to average yet. That’s okay. Their pass efficiency defense and rush defense isn’t too good, and they haven’t been able to run on anyone consistently through 3 d1 games. They can definitely pass it, but some misses definitely held them back more than the Mercer secondary. On defense, there were some missed assignments and poor footwork on some of Mercer’s explosive plays, but beyond that there were some things to like.

Having said that, they’re a young team, and Drayton is still building. I think they’ll be below .500 this year, but if they can keep making progress, they’ll be something to watch next year.

I’m still not persuaded by Mercer’s offense yet. If Wofford can keep them in check, i like us to win.

[FUBeAR]

larger pic

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYfPc9LWsAAy8vF?format=jpg&name=large
All better, just an hour later. Root-Rooter to the rescue. Told y’all there might be some poop in the Mocs’ locker room.

All cleared out now. Thanks Coach Helene!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYfPc9LWsAAy8vF?format=jpg&name=large

Look out vikings!

[wcugrad95]

Not sure about the WCU site, but as I was set to try and head out from FL to drive up to help my family in Western North Carolina with clean-up efforts, my sister-in-law sent me a note from the North Carolina DOT that says ALL roads in Western North Carolina should be considered closed right now. All lanes of I-40 are closed one mile west of Exit 64 near Black Mountain due to flooding. All lanes of I-40 are also closed between exit 66 to 72 due to a mudslide.

[Reign of Terrier]

So, I really wish Wofford could play tomorrow, but there are more important things in life - like having safe roads.

The silver lining is that, if we don’t the only teams in conference to play a full schedule would be UTC, VMi, and western, who i honestly don’t think will win the conference.

[The Cats]

Hey 95 is the official WCU site down? May be me, but no luck when I click on it.


Same here, it's down.

"Western North Carolina is effectively cut off due to extreme flooding. All interstates in/out are closed or blocked, and most state highways are blocked too. NC DOT is saying "All roads should be considered closed" except for emergency use."

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GYfxqcjXMAA6e77?format=jpg&name=large

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford/Mercer game postponed until 3:00. Some of the parking is closed off (including the verandah lot behind the end zone) and there won’t be concessions. Given everything going on, I’d be okay with telling spectators not to come and just have the game pandemic style so not too many emergency service folks are diverted, and what marginal car traffic the game would add doesn’t strain the roads further

https://woffordterriers.com/news/2024/9/27/football-hurricane-helene-impacts-wofford-athletics-events.aspx

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently Asheville is having a 1000 year flood.

[wcugrad95]

I saw a news blurb that the dam at Lake Lure's failure was "imminent" and that Lake James (in Marion) was going to raise to possibly 10-12' past the highest levels on record. The closures/blockage from the pic that The Cats posted is incredible. I was going to head up to try and help with my family and I simply can't get there.

[SU DOG]

Wofford/Mercer game postponed until 3:00. Some of the parking is closed off (including the verandah lot behind the end zone) and there won’t be concessions. Given everything going on, I’d be okay with telling spectators not to come and just have the game pandemic style so not too many emergency service folks are diverted, and what marginal car traffic the game would add doesn’t strain the roads further

https://woffordterriers.com/news/2024/9/27/football-hurricane-helene-impacts-wofford-athletics-events.aspx

- - - Updated - - -

Apparently Asheville is having a 1000 year flood.


Any word on whether the football game will still be streamed?

[Reign of Terrier]

Any word on whether the football game will still be streamed?

It should be, but i”m expecting technical difficulties.

[JALMOND]

Viks should be OK as long as UTC only allows the two-legged versions of Moccasins on the field and none of the "snaky" kind. Those look nasty. xlolxxthumbsupx

[FUBeAR]

Viks should be OK as long as UTC only allows the two-legged versions of Moccasins on the field and none of the "snaky" kind. Those look nasty. xlolxxthumbsupx
What are you talking about? They are the MOCkingbirds….

Or…maybe a maniacally smiling & waving bird driving a train is their mascot….

Or…maybe, they have something to do with Indigenous Peoples.

Or…maybe you’re right - snakes or soft leather shoes. Really hard to know.

https://i.postimg.cc/sf4rjWkM/IMG-0997.jpg

[caribbeanhen]

hang in there El Cid

[walliver]

Just read on X that ETSU’s football team is currently stranded in NC waiting for roads to reopen.

[The Cats]

Hey 95 is the official WCU site down? May be me, but no luck when I click on it.

an update on Cullowhee...


http://twitter.com/MaggieJMullen20/status/1839808491877544185

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR’s SoCon PICKS - Week 5 (Helene-shortened version)

DATE
AWAY
HOME
TIME
WHAT IT BE


9/28
ETSU
CIT
2 (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/24092817571709_CIT-vs-ETSU_20240928/stats/)P
Assuming the Highways in Western NC open up sufficiently, the host bellhops Defense will be similarly accommodating. ETSU continues on their preordained (y’know, cuz they played NDSU close) path to a SoCon Championship showdown with their preordained only other playoff-worthy (y’know, cuz they played Montana close) SoCon Team, WCU.

ETSU 35 - CIT 17


X
SAM
FUR
X
Helene 140 - Furman 0 - Samford 0


9/28
MER
WOF
3P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/53667_WOF-vs-MER_20240928/stats/)
SoCon Game of the Week involving SoCon Teams clearly unable to compete with MVFC & Big Sky Teams as ETSU & WCU (now, “suddenly” and only are). Mercer’s ALL NEW (not ALL NUDE, that’s something altogether different) Offense is beginning to show signs of maturing. About to Tweener stage now. Heard Taylor Swift playing in the Bears Locker Room last week. Tweeners are both annoying and persistent. Expect Mercer’s Offense to be exactly this to Woffy’s D. Mercer’s Defense is as good as any in FCS, except for every Team in the MVFC and the Big Sky (of course). Front 7 (and rotating subs) are a wall of “Don’t even…Just don’t.” DB’s are still working thru some things. If Wofford wants to win this (and they do), they will have to do so on the young arm of Amari Odom - while he’s trying not to get knocked out of the game. That arm may be long, but it’s very thin.

Mercer 27 - Wofford 14


9/28
PRST
CHAT
6P (https://soconsports.com/fb/game/24092820582151_CHAT-vs-PRST_20240928/stats/)
Chattanooga needs a win like Lake Lure needs a new dam. Channeling 2016, Mocs put the NorseTerrorists on their Cowcatcher and ride them back though the PortlandProgressivePortal. We don’t like their kind down here.

Chatt 45 - Portland State 14




FUBeAR’s SoCon POWER RANKINGS - Week 5

FUBeAR is letting SCIENCE take the wheel for another week…


FUBeAR’s
Power
Rank
SoCon
Team
Massey
Projected
Overall Record
Massey
Projected
SoCon Record
Massey
Projected
SoCon
Finish
Massey Projected
SoCon W/L Details


1a
Mercer (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/4649)
11-1
8-0
1
Only projected loss is to Alabama. FUBeAR is not prepared, at this time to opine regarding his projection of the outcome of that contest, so he will leave Mr. Masseys thoughts in place, for now. [Unchanged from Week 4]


1b
Furman (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2800)
8-4
7-1
2
loss to Mercer [Unchanged from Week 4]


3
W Carolina (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8742)
7-5
6-2
3
losses to Mercer, Furman [Unchanged from Week 4]


4
Chattanooga (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/7809)
6-6
5-3
4
losses to Mercer, Furman, WCU [Unchanged from Week 4]


5
ETSU (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/2321)
6-6
4-4
5
wins over CIT, VMI … AND now also winning over Samford & Wofford


6
Samford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/6987)
5-7
3-5
6
losses to Mercer, FU, Chatt, WCU … AND now also losing to ETSU


7
Wofford (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/9126)
4-8
2-6
7
losses to Mercer, FU, WCU, Chatt, Samford … AND now also losing to ETSU


8
Citadel (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/1545)
3-9
1-7
8
Now winning over VMI


9
VMI (https://masseyratings.com/cf2024/8450)
0-11
0-8
9
Now losing to CIT … and going 0’fer / 0’fer



- While tempted to drop Furman out of the top spot in his Power Rankings, but with the Paladins coming off a hard-fought, closer-than-the-score, heartbreaking loss to a Top 15 Team, FUBeAR just doesn’t see the science of such a change. The “1b” notation will have to suffice.

- In his heart FUBeAR believes…

….. - ETSU may be better than WCU & Chatt. FUBeAR has been tellin’ y’all and Coach Lamb is converting new believers every week.
….. - Wofford is probably better than Samford and will compete with the 4 Teams above them. Mercer will either provide the YardBarkers with validation of their return from FCS Purgatory this week or send them back for additional redemption for the sin for their previous Coaching hire.
….. - Samford will be challenged to compete with any of the 5 above them, plus, probably Wofford. The Hounds of Homewood have a chance to change FUBeAR’s mind about them in the shadows of Paris Mountain this week.
….. - CIT, as FUBeAR’s heart told him last week, is better than VMI, and may even be as good as or better than Samford and Wofford.

BUT …Can’t go with heart. Gotta go with SCIENCE![/QUOTE]

[FUBeAR]

Uh-oh
https://twitter.com/claytravis/status/1839857465598288005
Clay Travis added a comment to correct that Tyler Dell is ETSU’s QB Coach and Tre Lamb is the HC

Gonna add a few comment Tweets to this below - they may not all ‘stack’ correctly and some may duplicate, but worth the effort…xlolx

https://twitter.com/claytravis/status/1839858374822797447
https://twitter.com/walkonpartinawa/status/1839874852053778555

[caribbeanhen]

Uh-oh
https://twitter.com/claytravis/status/1839857465598288005
Clay Travis added a comment to correct that Tyler Dell is ETSU’s QB Coach and Tre Lamb is the HC

Gonna add a few comment Tweets to this below - they may not all ‘stack’ correctly and some may duplicate, but worth the effort…xlolx

https://twitter.com/claytravis/status/1839858374822797447
https://twitter.com/walkonpartinawa/status/1839874852053778555

The Citadel are not the ones that tried to drive over the Appalachians in a hurricane though

[walliver]

Looking at the NC road closure website, I don’t see anyway, other than helicopter, that ETSU makes it to Charleston today. I-40 and I-26 have multiple closures. Internet and cell services are limited in Western N.C.

To be honest, a well-run athletic department should have left a day earlier to avoid this. The Citadel has a lot of experience with last minute changes.

HTTPS://drivenc.gov

[SU DOG]

As I understand it, the ETSU bus made it into Charleston early this morning and the game will be played. The Citadel has issued a statement that the kickoff time is set for 5PM Eastern Time.

[Sandlapper Spike]

Clay Travis tried to stir up something by claiming The Citadel wasn't willing to adjust the game time, and people fell for it like idiots. What a country.

The game will now be played at 5pm ET.

My guess is that ETSU might not have wanted to play any later than that today, given it has to find its way back to Johnson City afterwards.

[FUBeAR]

Clay Travis tried to stir up something by claiming The Citadel wasn't willing to adjust the game time, and people fell for it like idiots. What a country.

The game will now be played at 5pm ET.

My guess is that ETSU might not have wanted to play any later than that today, given it has to find its way back to Johnson City afterwards.
So…your claim, then, is that, in fact, a ‘Citadel graduate has been known to have even a modicum of intelligence.’

It’s a worthy debate.

[Reign of Terrier]

Clay Travis slanders the Citadel because he's kind of a hack, I slander the Citadel because I hate the Citadel, we are not the same

[FUBeAR]

Clay Travis slanders the Citadel because he's kind of a hack, I slander the Citadel because I hate the Citadel, we are not the same
Your hatred for the bellhops will not be ripe for another 20 years or so.

Keep working on it though. It’s a noble cause.

[Reign of Terrier]

The good news is if you’re Wofford in this game is that the infernal 10 scripted plays are over with

[OrangeAndBlack]

The good news is if you’re Wofford in this game is that the infernal 10 scripted plays are over with

haha funny!

DJ Smith is injured for Mercer. Although I think Wofford might be upset at that news, as they had his number so far today!

[wcugrad95]

I know it is only 1 quarter of play, but relatively ugly football so far. Mercer is good on D but Wofford looks pretty inept on O (the Bears have given up some passing yards this year and Wofford has 0 passing yards). If DJ Smith is out this may be a close but awful football game to watch.

[FUBeAR]

I know it is only 1 quarter of play, but relatively ugly football so far. Mercer is good on D but Wofford looks pretty inept on O (the Bears have given up some passing yards this year and Wofford has 0 passing yards). If DJ Smith is out this may be a close but awful football game to watch.
*-3 passing yards

Mercer’s RT - transfer from Youngstown, who is very good - also went out and has not returned

[Reign of Terrier]

We are really lucky to not be down by 20. We’re not doing any intermediate passing plays. Smith being out is a little bit of a wash because he often makes bad decisions for the bears. Our defense is hit and miss. I have confidence we will figure something out but not that much.

Unlike Chatt or citadel, i don’t think we will abandon the run, which could be good or bad, we’ll see.

[wcugrad95]

You literally just got your first 2 first downs. Running the football is probably not the way to beat Mercer (you have 20 rushing yards).

That being said, it is still a 3-pt game and with Smith out…

[FUBeAR]

We are really lucky to not be down by 20. We’re not doing any intermediate passing plays. Smith being out is a little bit of a wash because he often makes bad decisions for the bears. Our defense is hit and miss. I have confidence we will figure something out but not that much.

Unlike Chatt or citadel, i don’t think we will abandon the run, which could be good or bad, we’ll see.
*28

Pro-Tip: Abandon the run (for now) - Coach Watson ain’t no dummy

9 straight called passes from Woffy

[FUBeAR]

*28

Pro-Tip: Abandon the run (for now) - Coach Watson ain’t no dummy

9 straight called passes from Woffy

THANK GOODNESS - Finally a holding call on Woffy - their OL has been tackling Mercer’s DL on every pass. 2 ‘broken field’ tackles on that play - so I guess they had to call it

…and, yes, the Mercer TE was holding on the 1 play the announcers called him out - that was not called

Up to 12 straight passes now.

[Reign of Terrier]

*28

Pro-Tip: Abandon the run (for now) - Coach Watson ain’t no dummy

9 straight called passes from Woffy

Yep. Notice how the 10th play was a run, and then i think we had one more after.

Considering how bad offense has played, and the penalties that killed that drive, and we get it in the second half. We will be alright, win or lose.

But man, I’m really tired of Wofford playing really good defenses lol

[OrangeAndBlack]

*-3 passing yards

Mercer’s RT - transfer from Youngstown, who is very good - also went out and has not returned

thats terrible news!!

[FUBeAR]

Yep. Notice how the 10th play was a run, and then i think we had one more after.

Considering how bad offense has played, and the penalties that killed that drive, and we get it in the second half. We will be alright, win or lose.

But man, I’m really tired of Wofford playing really good defenses lol

The 1 play showing Odom rushing was a designed pass - that’s when they finally called Holding



3RD AND 25 ON THE WOF48 - PASS
Odom,Amari left pass incomplete to Watkins,Kyle (Moore,TJ).

3RD AND 20 ON THE MER47 - PASS
Odom,Amari pass complete to Parker,Tyler (Standley,Ken), PENALTY WOF illegal formation 5 yards to the MER42.

3RD AND 10 ON THE MER37 - RUSH
Odom,Amari rush (Manley,Brayden), PENALTY WOF holding (Howard,Mason) 10 yards to the MER27.

2ND AND 20 ON THE MER47 - PASS
Odom,Amari middle pass complete to Smith,J.T. for 10 yards to the MER37 (Hill,Chris).

1ST AND 10 ON THE MER37 - PASS
Odom,Amari sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MER27, (Zock,Andrew).

2ND AND 10 ON THE WOF43 - PASS
Odom,Amari middle pass complete to Pinnix,Kyle for 20 yards to the MER37, 1ST DOWN WOF.

1ST AND 15 ON THE WOF38 - PASS
Odom,Amari left pass complete to Pinnix,Kyle for 5 yards to the WOF43 (Dowling,Isaac).

1ST AND 10 ON THE WOF43 - PENALTY (PASS called)
PENALTY WOF false start (Pinnix,Kyle) 5 yards to the WOF48.

3RD AND 8 ON THE WOF30 - PASS
Odom,Amari middle pass complete to Scott,Isaiah for 13 yards to the WOF43, 1ST DOWN WOF (Redding,Myles).

2ND AND 10 ON THE WOF28 - PASS
Odom,Amari right pass complete to Smith,J.T. for 2 yards to the WOF30 (Watkins,Donovan), PENALTY WOF holding (Moise,Luke).

1ST AND 10 ON THE WOF28 - PASS
Odom,Amariright pass incomplete to Djete,Dylan, QB hurried by Griffin,Carson.

2ND AND 10 ON THE WOF18 - PASS
Odom,Amari middle pass complete to Davis,Jordan for 10 yards to the WOF28, 1ST DOWN WOF (Redding,Myles;Thomas,Marques).

1ST AND 10 ON THE WOF18 - PASS
Odom,Amari right pass incomplete to Scott,Isaiah.

[Reign of Terrier]

At the same time, Watson tells Van Hipp, Wofford sideline reporter, that he wants to establish the run game. No!!!!! xlolx

[FUBeAR]

Dang - looks like another serious injury / medical event for Mercer.

Said it was Mic Wasson - walk-on LB who just earned a scholarship in the pre-season. Sounds like he will be taken to close by Medical Center - Spartanburg Regional - via ambulance…on a board & cart instead of ambulance and had upper body movement, at least

DAMN!

[wcugrad95]

If this was an FBS top-25 game, we would probably be watching exactly how this injury happened over and over. Honestly I am more than happy NOT to be seeing it. Hope that young man is OK.

[Reign of Terrier]

Dang - looks like another serious injury / medical event for Mercer.

Honestly I'm now getting Wofford 2016 vibes from Mercer now


If this was an FBS top-25 game, we would probably be watching exactly how this injury happened over and over. Honestly I am more than happy NOT to be seeing it. Hope that young man is OK.

Yes, I really hate it when they do it. It's good to have the EP preview it and conclude "this isn't for air" but instead it's that SNL skit where it goes over and over again.

[OrangeAndBlack]

A large amount of injuries for Mercer in this game. I missed the kickoff and didn’t see what happened here. Terrible situation.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Western Carolina lost soundly to Campbell (their only win). Now Campbell is struggling to beat Delaware State.

WCU has looked so good at times this season.

[Reign of Terrier]

How do we drop that. We dropped a 94 yard touchdown

[Reign of Terrier]

We're going to lose. Too many mistakes.

[OrangeAndBlack]

How do we drop that. We dropped a 94 yard touchdown

finally hit one of those deep shots against Mercer… and right through his hands!

[Reign of Terrier]

Wofford playcalling is awful lol

[Reign of Terrier]

We deserve to lose lol

[Reign of Terrier]

Mercer's defense is elite. Their offense - even with Smith, maybe not. Probably going to win the SoCon, but the season is young.

[FUBeAR]

Wofford should do nothing but throw deep balls the rest of the game.

[FUBeAR]

Wofford should do nothing but throw deep balls the rest of the game.
Now they have to

[Reign of Terrier]

Our receivers dropping passes is easily a 10+ point swing in this one. Offensive line got totally dominated down the stretch. Our defense isn't bad and Mercer is elite, but a chunk of this is on us. I'm done watching.

[OrangeAndBlack]

GG to Wofford. Mercer going 5-0 into the bye week is amazing. Let’s hope they can get some injured guys back to healthy.

[FUBeAR]

GG to Wofford. Mercer going 5-0 into the bye week is amazing. Let’s hope they can get some injured guys back to healthy.
Now you can brag about the best start ever. Damn Toreros CHEATED!

Still love FUBeAR’s 2013 Bears more! xnodx

[OrangeAndBlack]

The Toreros did cheat!! I was at that San Diego game!

[wcugrad95]

Will be important to learn how long DJ Smith might be out. I think Wofford has a pretty decent Defense, but Mercer was moving the ball well before he went out (shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers). Mercer is good, but will have to be a better offensive team to be elite. But 5-0 is 5-0.

Wofford on the other hand looked horrible on offense. I know Mercer’s D had a lot to do with that, but if the Bears have a weakness on that side it is in the back-end. Wofford really didn’t try to exploit that too much other than the one long throw to a wide open guy that they dropped.

Trying to figure out if that was 2 really good defenses or two pretty pedestrian offenses. I think we have enough data points that Mercer is really good on that side, but with Smith out I still don’t know on the Terriers. Wofford at WCU next week should tell us if Wofford is top-3 or so in the league and WCU is a pretender or vice versa.

One thing is I am glad the game got played. And the other is I hope the kid from Mercer is ok.

[FUBeAR]

The Toreros did cheat!! I was at that San Diego game!
Only one FUBeAR missed. Prolly woulda won if FUBeAR was present.

[Reign of Terrier]

I think Mercer is good enough to make the playoffs and win a game. I don't think they're a quarterfinalist or semifinalist worthy team. That's not an insult! For a first year coach, and all they lost on offense, that's pretty high praise.

Once they develop an elite offense, they just may get there.

Their DC being able to recruit Georgia is probably a big reason he's doing better than he did at YSU. I'm not ready to say they have the best defense in the FCS...that defense probably has Dakota or Montana in its name, but probably top 5 and definitely top 10. The secondary will continue to get better too.

For Wofford, it's back to the drawing board. Still a lot to play for. I will be bold and say that, with the exception of UTC and the gamecocks, Wofford's played the best defenses on its schedule. Having said that, we have way too many unforced errors and drops. Defense is good, and getting better, but we can't afford another game like that. I have misgivings about our style of offense and the playcalling.

[Reign of Terrier]

Will be important to learn how long DJ Smith might be out. I think Wofford has a pretty decent Defense, but Mercer was moving the ball well before he went out (shooting themselves in the foot with turnovers). Mercer is good, but will have to be a better offensive team to be elite. But 5-0 is 5-0.

Wofford on the other hand looked horrible on offense. I know Mercer’s D had a lot to do with that, but if the Bears have a weakness on that side it is in the back-end. Wofford really didn’t try to exploit that too much other than the one long throw to a wide open guy that they dropped.

Trying to figure out if that was 2 really good defenses or two pretty pedestrian offenses. I think we have enough data points that Mercer is really good on that side, but with Smith out I still don’t know on the Terriers. Wofford at WCU next week should tell us if Wofford is top-3 or so in the league and WCU is a pretender or vice versa.

One thing is I am glad the game got played. And the other is I hope the kid from Mercer is ok.

I think it's a little bit of both?

I know for some folks I come off as negative and nit-picky about other teams, but the thing that sticks out to me on Mercer is that their QB play hasn't been great. I know Smith has a high efficiency rate, but it very much is a dink and dunk system. When I'm looking at offenses and evaluating whether or not they're good or not, I look at execution (third downs, redzone, drops, overthrows), and even with Smith in, Mercer didn't execute as much as you'd like. Now, when your defense is that good, it may not matter, and it may be a deliberate decision to be more close to the chest.

FWIW The only team in the socon that I think has a very good offense on a consistent level is probably ETSU, but even then I haven't actually watched them play.

Wofford's problems were made obvious today, but on defense I think the problem is we can be too aggressive and in run defense patient runners can burn us. We improved over the course of this game. At the end of the year, if our offense regresses it will be on Watson's system more than anything.

[wcugrad95]

From the Mercer side, let’s say they ride that defense and go 7-1 in SOCON play (very rare for teams to go undefeated). And the Bears lose to Alabama. At 10-2 they are most likely a seed. So with a bye and 1 win they are now in the quarters.

Way to early to be thinking that. But that is why I think Smith’s injury is pivotal. The Bears had 135 yards on the first 2 drives after the opening fumble. For the rest of the game they had another 152 (total of 287). But even on those 2 pretty good drives they only had 3 points. So plenty to digest and contemplate in this game.

FWIW the Terriers had a total of 146 yards. 130 passing and 16 rushing.

[gofurman]

From the Mercer side, let’s say they ride that defense and go 7-1 in SOCON play (very rare for teams to go undefeated). And the Bears lose to Alabama. At 10-2 they are most likely a seed. So with a bye and 1 win they are now in the quarters.

Way to early to be thinking that. But that is why I think Smith’s injury is pivotal. The Bears had 135 yards on the first 2 drives after the opening fumble. For the rest of the game they had another 152 (total of 287). But even on those 2 pretty good drives they only had 3 points. So plenty to digest and contemplate in this game.

FWIW the Terriers had a total of 146 yards. 130 passing and 16 rushing.

Wofford with 146 yards TOTAL. That’s just painful. ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY SIX …. Man and while that’s - um, not good - I think we know enough now to say Mercer D IS ELITE.

So Mercer lost their QB to ankle and their good RT? Is that right? I know the qb left

[OrangeAndBlack]

Only one FUBeAR missed. Prolly woulda won if FUBeAR was present.

definitely would have won! Luckily it “didn’t happen”.

for the posters barking about Wofford drops, is it still a drop if it doesn’t touch anything?

[Reign of Terrier]

I would bet $10 Wofford has the most drops through 4 games of any team in the FCS

[FUBeAR]

From the Mercer side, let’s say they ride that defense and go 7-1 in SOCON play (very rare for teams to go undefeated). And the Bears lose to Alabama. At 10-2 they are most likely a seed. So with a bye and 1 win they are now in the quarters.

Way to early to be thinking that. But that is why I think Smith’s injury is pivotal. The Bears had 135 yards on the first 2 drives after the opening fumble. For the rest of the game they had another 152 (total of 287). But even on those 2 pretty good drives they only had 3 points. So plenty to digest and contemplate in this game.

FWIW the Terriers had a total of 146 yards. 130 passing and 16 rushing.
Dangit! FUBeAR had 15 yards rushing or under to win 2G’s

[kdinva]

I would bet $10 Wofford has the most drops through 4 games of any team in the FCS

let's check the tapes of wofford and vmi

[FUBeAR]

Chatt 12 for 13 on 3rd Down conversions tonight vs Big Sky Defense

Chatt 0 for 12 on 3rd Down conversions against SoCon Mercer last outing.


Wow - they really improved during their bye week, huh?

[Mocs123]

Glad you recognized our improvement FUBeAR!!! xdrunkyx

Obviously, we missed a few things vs. the Bears defense and looked really out of sorts - part of that was certainly the Bears themselves as their defense, particularly against the run is legit. The Vikes defense certainly wasn't up to the SoCon standard, but I thought their QB was really good - great runner (and you Furman folks know how the Mocs struggle with a WB that can run - Huff killed us the past few years). Huge test for the Mocs this week against the Bucks in JC.