AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 4, Fall 2024

[Preferred Walk-On]

There are three games finishing up involving teams in the AGS Top 25 or ORV, so it is that time again to present How They Fared.

CLICK HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1KG7csFzhNgWupzPFxN9Yxc-wmLo_Yx8zPWbUo3p9a4w/edit?usp=sharing) to see how the AGS ranked, nearly ranked, or previously ranked teams did in their games this week. Will update as per usual, and let me know what I messed up on.

Let the discussion begin...

[Preferred Walk-On]

I'll start...for anybody thinking that Southern Utah is horribly under-ranked, please see idaho State Bengals...or please consider ranking ISUo. ;)

[Preferred Walk-On]

One more...Abilene Christian lost to Idaho by 3. This same Abilene Christian needed a FG from distance at the buzzer to beat Northern Colorado by 2 last week. Idaho over South Dakota State for the top spot might need some reconsideration this week...and Abilene Christian looks quite deserving of a significant ranking.

[Preferred Walk-On]

OK, last one...for now. Southeast Missouri State had a very nice win this week over a highly regarded Southern Illinois team...@ SIU...by 3 scores. SEMO beat Tennessee-Martin by 3...in 2 OT...@ SEMO...just two weeks ago. I realize Tennessee-Martin did lose this week to Missouri State (who did receive votes this year before being excluded from the poll as transitional) by 7 pt, but 13 spots between SEMO and UT-M AND not ranking UT-M seems a bit harsh. Oh, and where does one place SIU in relation to UT-M now? Happy voting!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

OK, last one...for now. Southeast Missouri State had a very nice win this week over a highly regarded Southern Illinois team...@ SIU...by 3 scores. SEMO beat Tennessee-Martin by 3...in 2 OT...@ SEMO...just two weeks ago. I realize Tennessee-Martin did lose this week to Missouri State (who did receive votes this year before being excluded from the poll as transitional) by 7 pt, but 13 spots between SEMO and UT-M AND not ranking UT-M seems a bit harsh. Oh, and where does one place SIU in relation to UT-M now? Happy voting!

No disagreement with anything you say. I think SUU is pretty good, I think Idaho is top notch too, I think the SoCon, the top of the CAA, and from what I see really a whole bunch of teams are good enough on anygiven to make a really good team pay the price. I'm telling you all that WCU was really good today as well in a hostile environment. so, if the Griz are a playoff team this year, I think WCU will be as well...but who knows if either team will be because there are holes in both teams that need time to fill in.

WCU has a really good secondary, a real good Oline, good RB, and a QB that is tough as nails and as good as you've seen in FCS for the most part. I just think there are so many decent teams out there right now.

[smilo]

No disagreement with anything you say. I think SUU is pretty good, I think Idaho is top notch too, I think the SoCon, the top of the CAA, and from what I see really a whole bunch of teams are good enough on anygiven to make a really good team pay the price. I'm telling you all that WCU was really good today as well in a hostile environment. so, if the Griz are a playoff team this year, I think WCU will be as well...but who knows if either team will be because there are holes in both teams that need time to fill in.WCU has a really good secondary, a real good Oline, good RB, and a QB that is tough as nails and as good as you've seen in FCS for the most part. I just think there are so many decent teams out there right now.I'll take your word for it since I trust your judgement, but I'd be really surprised if Western Carolina ended the season with a winning record. They seem to currently be projected just under 6-6 and have a disastrous loss to Campbell, who looks especially bad this year. 2 gimmes to get to 3 wins, and then six genuine coin flips. I just don't see them getting in with fewer than 8 wins, so they'll need to go 5 of 6, which probably could get them the autobid anyway. They are in dire position in a conference with enormous parity.

[TheKingpin28]

Convince me that NDSU is a top 5 team. If we are talking Offense only, sure and in fact, maybe even #1. Special Teams, sure I'd consider it. Defense, possibly the worst defense NDSU has had since 09, and that is saying something. This team is not a top 5 team and I hope the voters are doing justice and agreeing on it.

[smilo]

Also, I'm frankly not too convinced that Montana is especially great to begin with. I think Missouri State is good but potentially at risk of getting left out if they don't win at Illinois State so the narrow win won't look great.

North Dakota left me with a lot more questions than answers yesterday so the close loss is going to have us question how good Montana actually is all season. The schedule is soft through no fault of their own. Unless, they dominate Weber and Davis, or teams in front of them lose, they might not see my top 8 for awhile.

I might sound like a hypocrite as a Villanova fan with an even softer schedule, but the FCS loss is going to be a bigger drag -- until Nova takes one of their own.

[Pards Rule]

You can move Leopards out of top 25...

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

You can move Leopards out of top 25...

For now. With that said, the Leopards should still be on everyone's conscious given the fact one of their losses is to a clearly solid/good Buffalo team and the other coming at the hands of Columbia who perhaps ends up being a tough out thus making the "L more tolerable (generally speaking). Lafayette also has a good win over Monmouth. If i'm a Lafayette fan I'm more concerned about the injuries than yesterday's loss.

As of today, he PL still has 3 (Holy Cross, Lafayette, Lehigh) teams who could find their way into the Top 25 by the end of the year and another in Colgate who has the ability to at least join the conversation. Although, the loss to Maine might prove to be worse than losing to Columbia.

Bucknell might be able to. However, they have such an equity deficiency as a program they'll likely have to get to 9 or 10 wins first.

[taper]

If you have NDSU and Nova in your top 10, Towson needs to get votes. I know some people object to ranking teams without wins, but they've played very respectably against a tough schedule.

[wcugrad95]

I know this is a trully "duh" comment, but ranking particularly at the FCS level is just so hard. In my own backyard, we have WCU at 1-3 who played 1 really bad game and they will fall out of my poll. Had we played some D2 or Pioneer type team and had a blowout win vs the bad loss to Campbell in week 2, they'd still be in my top-25 at 2-2. Had just a handful of plays gone the other way and the Cats beat the Griz on the road yesterday WCU might be in my top-20 even with the bad loss. Had BOTH of those things happened and we were 3-1 heck I might have Western in the top-10.

That is how wild FCS right now, and that is just looking at one team's scenario. The SOCON has 2 losses to William & Mary in very competetive games. We have 2 straight wins on the road against Elon who has been ranked or ORV. We have an 0-3 Chattanooga team that I know is good enough to be a playoff-caliber squad. So I fully expect we will beat each other up and probably have several 7-ish win teams and only get 1 or 2 in. But it is clear the SOCON can compete with the guys most pollsters have highly ranked (coulda/shoulda by ETSU last week and WCU this week).

[FUBeAR]

I know this is a trully "duh" comment, but ranking particularly at the FCS level is just so hard. In my own backyard, we have WCU at 1-3 who played 1 really bad game and they will fall out of my poll. Had we played some D2 or Pioneer type team and had a blowout win vs the bad loss to Campbell in week 2, they'd still be in my top-25 at 2-2. Had just a handful of plays gone the other way and the Cats beat the Griz on the road yesterday WCU might be in my top-20 even with the bad loss. Had BOTH of those things happened and we were 3-1 heck I might have Western in the top-10.

That is how wild FCS right now, and that is just looking at one team's scenario. The SOCON has 2 losses to William & Mary in very competetive games. We have 2 straight wins on the road against Elon who has been ranked or ORV. We have an 0-3 Chattanooga team that I know is good enough to be a playoff-caliber squad. So I fully expect we will beat each other up and probably have several 7-ish win teams and only get 1 or 2 in. But it is clear the SOCON can compete with the guys most pollsters have highly ranked (coulda/shoulda by ETSU last week and WCU this week).
EXACTLY correct!

[Reign of Terrier]

I think the socon has like 6 teams who are top 50 (sans citadel, VMI, and Samford), but having watched a lot of games (albeit some of them sped up), I’m only convinced that Wofford, Mercer, and ETSU look top 25. And even then, I don’t think of them look top 15.

I think we are going to cannibalize ourselves again this year and at this point, Wofford, Mercer, and ETSU, and Chatt need to succeed for the sake of the conference. Western and Furman’s losses to CSU and Campbell are just a little too awkward. Same with Samford and their WGU L. VMI is out or it. The Citadel is teetering and can afford maybe one more loss in conference play.

I would have to go back, but I don’t think any socon team has ever come back from something like a 1-4 start to make the playoffs. Having 4 losses going to November isn’t a deal breaker, but it’s just hard. I’m typically pretty gracious to 2 early season losses, especially if one is OOC (Wofford in 2019 pulled it off), but 3 is tough.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Convince me that NDSU is a top 5 team. If we are talking Offense only, sure and in fact, maybe even #1. Special Teams, sure I'd consider it. Defense, possibly the worst defense NDSU has had since 09, and that is saying something. This team is not a top 5 team and I hope the voters are doing justice and agreeing on it.
I wish I could, but NDSU has not been a top 5 team for two weekends now (at least according to me and my poll submitted last week). Last week, they were outplayed. This weekend, NDSU was not outplayed, they just were not sharp at all. That said, NDSU did just beat the team (by 17 pt) that last week gave AGS #6 Villanova all they could handle, so?... But seriously, no, NDSU is not a top 5 team at this point.

[Preferred Walk-On]

I don't know, but should we be talking about East Tennessee State a little more? In their "prove it" game this past weekend, they dispensed with a CAA team (rather handily) that has received votes and was briefly in the top 25 (week 3). Personally, like ursus indicated for Western Carolina at Montana (paraphrasing: solid team), East Tennessee State showed "something" against NDSU that makes me think their performance was not simply an anomaly. Time will tell.

[Reign of Terrier]

Just glancing at the box score, passing efficiency might be ETSU’s kryptonite. Might. Their defense may also be only average - I say that because Elon struggled in all their games but the NC Central game - and even then 14 of their 41 points came off a pick 6 and a short field. Again, all of this is inconclusive. Maybe Elon’s offense is average and ETSU is better than i’m leading on here. I don’t know! i just refuse to extrapolate from the UVA wise and app games.

If I were a voter, i’d probably rank Wofford and ETSU because there does appear to be something there.

[wcugrad95]

ETSU has a QB and RB who will put a lot of pressure on teams. Funny that you also included WCU in your post, as the Cats had also just beaten Elon the week before on the road. The SOCON has 0-3 (UTC), 1-3 (WCU), and 2-2 (ETSU) teams that are all pretty good. I expect that ETSU will be in my top-25 and the other 2 are a win or two away from being back in. Records obviously matter, but I will reward all of them as soon as they get some more wins and get above .500.

And ROT I will have Wofford in my top-25, but they also have to show us something. Along with Mercer, I think the SOCON has 5 teams (maybe more) who have the talent to be rankable. But we gotta get some wins and now that we are going into conference play unfortunately those wins are going to be coming at other league team's expense.

[Reign of Terrier]

ETSU has a QB and RB who will put a lot of pressure on teams. Funny that you also included WCU in your post, as the Cats had also just beaten Elon the week before on the road. The SOCON has 0-3 (UTC), 1-3 (WCU), and 2-2 (ETSU) teams that are all pretty good. I expect that ETSU will be in my top-25 and the other 2 are a win or two away from being back in. Records obviously matter, but I will reward all of them as soon as they get some more wins and get above .500.And ROT I will have Wofford in my top-25, but they also have to show us something. Along with Mercer, I think the SOCON has 5 teams (maybe more) who have the talent to be rankable. But we gotta get some wins and now that we are going into conference play unfortunately those wins are going to be coming at other league team's expense.I’m just being consistent. Losing games against good teams is correlated with being both slightly worse than very good teams and being the kind of team that blow it. I have a high standard of what entails a good/rankable team (hence why i think a top 15 is superior than a top 25) and think polls have an anchoring effect on how teams and conferences are perceived. Historically, I’m the one giving voters **** for ranking a 2-4 MVFC team (or something) just because “it was close man.” And as much as i’d love to be a shill (and could fulfill that role well), I’m listening to my brain over my heart. Because history tells me a lot of those teams sort of collapse.I think it was 2017 when I went hard in on this when it was Youngstown state that was 3-3, had lost 3 straight close ones, and people were saying “keep them ranked man!” and then they strolled into Stambaugh stadium and got shut out by Illinois State 35-0. They finished 6-5, no playoffs or ranking. I could be getting the context confused with 2019 though, because it happens a lot.If I were a hack, I’d totally practice selective memory and be advocating like 5 socon teams to be ranked, but i’ve seen way too many collapses in other teams and my team (2013) to be super high on any team having 3 losses before late October.

[taper]

Just glancing at the box score, passing efficiency might be ETSU’s kryptonite. Might. Their defense may also be only average - I say that because Elon struggled in all their games but the NC Central game - and even then 14 of their 41 points came off a pick 6 and a short field. Again, all of this is inconclusive. Maybe Elon’s offense is average and ETSU is better than i’m leading on here. I don’t know! i just refuse to extrapolate from the UVA wise and app games.

If I were a voter, i’d probably rank Wofford and ETSU because there does appear to be something there.
With over 10k posts here, why aren't you a voter? More is better, the "mistakes" the rest of us make get averaged out.

[TheKingpin28]

I wish I could, but NDSU has not been a top 5 team for two weekends now (at least according to me and my poll submitted last week). Last week, they were outplayed. This weekend, NDSU was not outplayed, they just were not sharp at all. That said, NDSU did just beat the team (by 17 pt) that last week gave AGS #6 Villanova all they could handle, so?... But seriously, no, NDSU is not a top 5 team at this point.They fell out last week for me as well, after the almost ETSU embarrassment and they reaffirmed my doubt in them yesterday.

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[wcugrad95]

ROT I think we are saying the same thing here. I in no way am advocating that 5 SOCON teams are deserving of being ranked. I said as many as 5 have the talent to be ranked with some wins. I do think the conference has 5 or more good teams, but every conference has good teams. The difference with us is we all play each other, and this year the league overall is playing better OOC competition. So by season's-end the team(s) at the top should be well-known commodities.

[POD Knows]

I wish I could, but NDSU has not been a top 5 team for two weekends now (at least according to me and my poll submitted last week). Last week, they were outplayed. This weekend, NDSU was not outplayed, they just were not sharp at all. That said, NDSU did just beat the team (by 17 pt) that last week gave AGS #6 Villanova all they could handle, so?... But seriously, no, NDSU is not a top 5 team at this point.
Not top 5 for me either, not with that defense. I watched the SDSU SLU game and the SDSU D, which is down this year, is a whole other level better than NDSU. Their LBs and secondary guys actually tackle and hit people and are actually around the ball when a pass is thrown.

[Reign of Terrier]

With over 10k posts here, why aren't you a voter? More is better, the "mistakes" the rest of us make get averaged out.

Used to be. Stopped when life stuff happened and when i got annoyed with people being silly on here saying they watched all the games when they didn’t and things used to be a lot worse in terms of bias in conversations. The Ysu anecdote i shared earlier is one example.

Now, I consciously don’t commit to things and principly think 25 is too many teams to rank. 15 or 16 is better.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'll take your word for it since I trust your judgement, but I'd be really surprised if Western Carolina ended the season with a winning record. They seem to currently be projected just under 6-6 and have a disastrous loss to Campbell, who looks especially bad this year. 2 gimmes to get to 3 wins, and then six genuine coin flips. I just don't see them getting in with fewer than 8 wins, so they'll need to go 5 of 6, which probably could get them the autobid anyway. They are in dire position in a conference with enormous parity.

I wasn't very clear I guess but what I am saying is IF the Griz are a playoff team (we have lots of holes at this time) and IF the WCU team fills in some of it's holes then I would think they can make it as they were a really good team on the field yesterday. I pointed out their strength, but by deductive reasoning their weaknesses may be much more exploitable by SoCon teams that can run the ball effectively.

But that is the case for about 50 teams out there right now, and we know they aren't all gonna make that cut in the end. I also think they got a little beat up yesterday so that may rear it's head too.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Also, I'm frankly not too convinced that Montana is especially great to begin with. I think Missouri State is good but potentially at risk of getting left out if they don't win at Illinois State so the narrow win won't look great.

North Dakota left me with a lot more questions than answers yesterday so the close loss is going to have us question how good Montana actually is all season. The schedule is soft through no fault of their own. Unless, they dominate Weber and Davis, or teams in front of them lose, they might not see my top 8 for awhile.

I might sound like a hypocrite as a Villanova fan with an even softer schedule, but the FCS loss is going to be a bigger drag -- until Nova takes one of their own.

Right now, Montana is not particularly strong. It is similar to last year in that we don't have a firm footing in several areas. But that is progressing, like last season too. So by the 7th game we'll have a good idea who we are.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I know this is a trully "duh" comment, but ranking particularly at the FCS level is just so hard. In my own backyard, we have WCU at 1-3 who played 1 really bad game and they will fall out of my poll. Had we played some D2 or Pioneer type team and had a blowout win vs the bad loss to Campbell in week 2, they'd still be in my top-25 at 2-2. Had just a handful of plays gone the other way and the Cats beat the Griz on the road yesterday WCU might be in my top-20 even with the bad loss. Had BOTH of those things happened and we were 3-1 heck I might have Western in the top-10.

That is how wild FCS right now, and that is just looking at one team's scenario. The SOCON has 2 losses to William & Mary in very competetive games. We have 2 straight wins on the road against Elon who has been ranked or ORV. We have an 0-3 Chattanooga team that I know is good enough to be a playoff-caliber squad. So I fully expect we will beat each other up and probably have several 7-ish win teams and only get 1 or 2 in. But it is clear the SOCON can compete with the guys most pollsters have highly ranked (coulda/shoulda by ETSU last week and WCU this week).

That's the same thing every conference does so the SOCON is not special in that regard.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Not top 5 for me either, not with that defense. I watched the SDSU SLU game and the SDSU D, which is down this year, is a whole other level better than NDSU. Their LBs and secondary guys actually tackle and hit people and are actually around the ball when a pass is thrown.

I was in a pm with Prof C a couple weeks ago and I mentioned that same thing. I've never seen NDSU so poor at tacking, and out of position on defense, It's the way the Griz looked in the 2nd 1/2 against UND and you are just living on the edge without those fundamentals.

[taper]

NDSU certainly isn't the juggernaut of the past, but who are you putting above them? I still see us as top 5 until someone proves otherwise.

[MSUBobcat]

Used to be. Stopped when life stuff happened and when i got annoyed with people being silly on here saying they watched all the games when they didn’t and things used to be a lot worse in terms of bias in conversations. The Ysu anecdote i shared earlier is one example.

Now, I consciously don’t commit to things and principly think 25 is too many teams to rank. 15 or 16 is better.

With a 24 team playoff, this makes no sense to me.

[MSUBobcat]

If you have NDSU and Nova in your top 10, Towson needs to get votes. I know some people object to ranking teams without wins, but they've played very respectably against a tough schedule.

I don't know about getting votes quite yet for playing respectably. At some point you need to win games. That Morgan State victory is looking decent-ish, but it's the only time playing respectably resulted in a win. I do have W&M on upset watch coming off Towson's bye week.

[Preferred Walk-On]

NDSU certainly isn't the juggernaut of the past, but who are you putting above them? I still see us as top 5 until someone proves otherwise.

Well, I suppose a few MVFC teams, some Big Sky, if ETSU is a middle-pack SoCon, probably one or more or those, and no matter what you think of the Southland/Big South-OVC/UAC, there is probably a team or three one could make an argument for. The FCS teams NDSU has played so far are possibly not the top of their leagues, so the dominance of years past cannot be proclaimed thus far. Not giving some consideration that the top teams from other conferences might be pretty darned good this year is, in my opinion, a mistake. Of course, all poll submissions (yours and mine included) are subject to numerous factors, but the common factor is that they are all subjective.


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[POD Knows]

I was in a pm with Prof C a couple weeks ago and I mentioned that same thing. I've never seen NDSU so poor at tacking, and out of position on defense, It's the way the Griz looked in the 2nd 1/2 against UND and you are just living on the edge without those fundamentals.
It is really just a continuation of the past couple years, can’t tell if it is simply a skill and talent situation or something else. I just think that they aren’t that skilled and our recruiting on that side of the ball just hasn’t been very good. We will see how the year goes but if the D is this bad the rest of the year, this team will be lucky to be a 500 team in the conference

[ElCid]

The FCS teams NDSU has played so far are possibly not the top of their leagues, so the dominance of years past cannot be proclaimed thus far.

Unfortunately, I think NDSU is suffering from playing to their competition. They are clearly top 10 and very arguably top 5. But when you have a legacy, sometimes playing just enough, is enough. I could be wrong, but we've all seen it before. That said, there are a few teams that have surprised. A couple more weeks will reveal much.

[Chalupa Batman]

One more...Abilene Christian lost to Idaho by 3. This same Abilene Christian needed a FG from distance at the buzzer to beat Northern Colorado by 2 last week. Idaho over South Dakota State for the top spot might need some reconsideration this week...and Abilene Christian looks quite deserving of a significant ranking.

Idaho did have to survive a late ACU rally last night, but they also looked just as impressive for 3 quarters as they did in their first 3 games before the Wildcats started their rally. Also, look at Idaho's schedule so far: 2 FBS teams, a ranked team (albeit over-ranked, but also the team that ended their season in the playoffs), and then another ranked team on the road (and on top of that knowing that next week they are travelling to play at another top 15 team). That's a pretty grueling stretch to start the season with, I don't think we should let one bad quarter undo what they did in their first 3 3/4 games and move them down in our poll. I'm not going to say they are a clear cut #1, but the Vandals have absolutely earned any first place votes they receive this week.

[Professor Chaos]

A case could be made for NDSU in the top 5 or a case could be made for them outside of the top 5 - it's kind of a moot point right now because their next 4 games, at Illinois St, vs UND, at SIU, and vs SDSU, will make it pretty clear where they should end up.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Idaho did have to survive a late ACU rally last night, but they also looked just as impressive for 3 quarters as they did in their first 3 games before the Wildcats started their rally. Also, look at Idaho's schedule so far: 2 FBS teams, a ranked team (albeit over-ranked, but also the team that ended their season in the playoffs), and then another ranked team on the road (and on top of that knowing that next week they are travelling to play at another top 15 team). That's a pretty grueling stretch to start the season with, I don't think we should let one bad quarter undo what they did in their first 3 3/4 games and move them down in our poll. I'm not going to say they are a clear cut #1, but the Vandals have absolutely earned any first place votes they receive this week.

I can get on board with that; however, this is not unlike (IMO) the Montana @ North Dakota game…one team dominates one half (I know, not 3/4), and the other team dominates the other half (and in that case, won). One indicator to me how a team finishes a game. To me, Idaho is still a top team, but there is a little doubt here as to “best” of the FCS, especially since we have seen it time and time again on this forum (and even just two weeks ago for NDSU @ ETSU), where it was discussed how great teams find ways to win (or I guess in this case, not give up the win). Also, I think if Idaho gets a 1st place vote, then I would be curious to know where Abilene Christian emerges to in the poll. After all, their only other loss is to FBS Texas Tech…by 1 pt…in OT. This may be the FCS season some AGS members have been clamoring for…less dominance at top and more parity. Just don’t tell South Dakota State or Montana State that.


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[ursus arctos horribilis]

Idaho did have to survive a late ACU rally last night, but they also looked just as impressive for 3 quarters as they did in their first 3 games before the Wildcats started their rally. Also, look at Idaho's schedule so far: 2 FBS teams, a ranked team (albeit over-ranked, but also the team that ended their season in the playoffs), and then another ranked team on the road (and on top of that knowing that next week they are travelling to play at another top 15 team). That's a pretty grueling stretch to start the season with, I don't think we should let one bad quarter undo what they did in their first 3 3/4 games and move them down in our poll. I'm not going to say they are a clear cut #1, but the Vandals have absolutely earned any first place votes they receive this week.

Dead on assessment.

[KPSUL]

I don't know about getting votes quite yet for playing respectably. At some point you need to win games. That Morgan State victory is looking decent-ish, but it's the only time playing respectably resulted in a win. I do have W&M on upset watch coming off Towson's bye week.

It makes sense to hold off on Towson for a couple weeks. With 3 losses they are going to need a winning conference record to even be considered for a playoff at-large bid. They are playing 12 games this season, assuming a win vs Norfolk St. 6-1 in their remaining CAA would likely do it at 8-4. Anything less, "outlook not good".

[FUBeAR]

Well, I suppose a few MVFC teams, some Big Sky, if ETSU is a middle-pack SoCon, probably one or more or those, and no matter what you think of the Southland/Big South-OVC/UAC, there is probably a team or three one could make an argument for. The FCS teams NDSU has played so far are possibly not the top of their leagues, so the dominance of years past cannot be proclaimed thus far. Not giving some consideration that the top teams from other conferences might be pretty darned good this year is, in my opinion, a mistake. Of course, all poll submissions (yours and mine included) are subject to numerous factors, but the common factor is that they are all subjective.

ETSU has finished next-to-last in the SoCon for the past 2 seasons, with a combined SoCon record of 3-13. None of those 3 wins came over a SoCon Team that finished higher than 8th place. Until they prove otherwise by winning within the SoCon in 2024, they can logically be considered a “back of the pack” SoCon Team.

So ‘5 or 6 or more of those [other SoCon Teams]’ within your ‘argument’ may be more appropriate.

[Preferred Walk-On]

ETSU has finished next-to-last in the SoCon for the past 2 seasons, with a combined SoCon record of 3-13. None of those 3 wins came over a SoCon Team that finished higher than 8th place. Until they prove otherwise by winning within the SoCon in 2024, they can logically be considered a “back of the pack” SoCon Team.

So ‘5 or 6 or more of those [other SoCon Teams]’ within your ‘argument’ may be more appropriate.
I think you misinterpreted a bit. I was not saying ETSU in the top 10. I was saying that if they are middle-of-the-pack SoCon, then some other (better?) SoCon teams could be there. What you said for your last sentence was actually what I was trying to point out.

[Reign of Terrier]

With a 24 team playoff, this makes no sense to me.

Very rarely does a team outside of that top 16 that makes the playoffs makes it very far, so i’m cool with it.

[Preferred Walk-On]

A case could be made for NDSU in the top 5 or a case could be made for them outside of the top 5 - it's kind of a moot point right now because their next 4 games, at Illinois St, vs UND, at SIU, and vs SDSU, will make it pretty clear where they should end up.
While I agree it will get sorted out, that could be said for almost everyone.

So really, it is not a moot point right now, since we have to rank teams now, and then again in 4 weeks. But I get what you are saying.

[KPSUL]

ETSU has finished next-to-last in the SoCon for the past 2 seasons, with a combined SoCon record of 3-13. None of those 3 wins came over a SoCon Team that finished higher than 8th place. Until they prove otherwise by winning within the SoCon in 2024, they can logically be considered a “back of the pack” SoCon Team.

So ‘5 or 6 or more of those [other SoCon Teams]’ within your ‘argument’ may be more appropriate. The SoCon pack seems to be running a lot slower so far this season.

[Reign of Terrier]

Look folks, as a socon homer i am not inclined to put too much stock in an early season near-flop by the Bizon. Remember when chuck south took them to OT in 2017? Chuck south lost to gardner webb and had a weird schedule, only winning 6 games, and lost to wofford in the first round of the playoffs.

That’s not to take too much away from ETSU, but it’s like an FBS game that gets close (like when a socon team used to push an ACC or SEC team). The explanation was easily more attributable to the FBS team (NDSU) not the rapid ascent of the lower team (ETSU). That’s the main reason i’m reserved about ETSU.

Tre Lamb is a good coach with a Dabo Swinney vibe, without the portal baggage (in good ways and bad). But I’m just very skeptical that someone can turn a team around so fast. Hendrix at Furman in 2017 is probably the best example of someone doing similar, and Furman was technically the third best team on a tie-breaker in the socon that year. Going through memory, it’s just really hard. If anything it speaks to the strength of the socon where a coach can’t have instant success like in other conferences.

[MSUBobcat]

Very rarely does a team outside of that top 16 that makes the playoffs makes it very far, so i’m cool with it.

How those teams DO in the playoffs is irrelevant to needing to rank the top 24 teams to set the field. The selection committee has to rank 24 team (less any AQs that are outside that ranking), so we might as well also, especially considering the AGS poll comes closer to picking the actual field than any other poll.

[FUBeAR]

I think you misinterpreted a bit. I was not saying ETSU in the top 10. I was saying that if they are middle-of-the-pack SoCon, then some other (better?) SoCon teams could be there. What you said for your last sentence was actually what I was trying to point out.
Nah - think FUBeAR understood.

You were responding to the query about which Teams should, possibly, be ranked ahead of NDSU and, FUBeAR is assuming you were saying that because of the way NDSU @ ETSU played out 2 games ago, that some SoCon Teams might be in that conversation.

Perfectly logical.

The ‘error’ was granting ETSU ‘SoCon middle of the pack status’ when, recently the Bucs have actually been looking at about 7 SoCon rear ends during their SoCon season runs. They have yet to earn that middle of the pack status you granted.

If ETSU had gained middle of the pack status, “1 or more,” as you stated, would have been perfect, but since they haven’t, if we are still using your logic to answer the question, FUBeAR contends “5 or 6 or more” would have been a more appropriate response.

That’s all.

[FUBeAR]

The SoCon pack seems to be running a lot slower so far this season.
Nah - the back of the pack has closed the gap.*

And some of the front-runners tried to chase a couple of Ferraris while they were nursing some pups. Plenty of season to play out.


*This includes the recent decision FUBeAR made to excommunicate VMI from the SoCon.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Nah - think FUBeAR understood.

You were responding to the query about which Teams should, possibly, be ranked ahead of NDSU and, FUBeAR is assuming you were saying that because of the way NDSU @ ETSU played out 2 games ago, that some SoCon Teams might be in that conversation.

Perfectly logical.

The ‘error’ was granting ETSU ‘SoCon middle of the pack status’ when, recently the Bucs have actually been looking at about 7 SoCon rear ends during their SoCon season runs. They have yet to earn that middle of the pack status you granted.

If ETSU had gained middle of the pack status, “1 or more,” as you stated, would have been perfect, but since they haven’t, if we are still using your logic to answer the question, FUBeAR contends “5 or 6 or more” would have been a more appropriate response.

That’s all.

Had to use my AI FUBeAR interpreter, but I think I’m picking up what you’re laying down. However, lurking on the SoCon weekly power rankings thread, it appears that ETSU has already garnered middle-of-the-pack (or better) status…by those in the SoCon know. Even you have them at #5 out of 9…that is the median, which I think indicates the middle. Also, I was going to commend my SoCon colleagues, as you guys/gals have been quite active in those threads. Therefore, I presume that your placement of ETSU holds some merit. So…I am doubtful about 5 or 6 in the top 10 (as are you, unless you have ETSU or Samford there…maybe you do?), but I don’t think it is unreasonable for a few SoCon to be there. In fact, I obviously am thinking along the lines of one or more, as indicated by my last week’s poll submission.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

Had to use my AI FUBeAR interpreter, but I think I’m picking up what you’re laying down. However, lurking on the SoCon weekly power rankings thread, it appears that ETSU has already garnered middle-of-the-pack (or better) status…by those in the SoCon know. Even you have them at #5 out of 9…that is the median, which I think indicates the middle. Also, I was going to commend my SoCon colleagues, as you guys/gals have been quite active in those threads. Therefore, I presume that your placement of ETSU holds some merit. So…I am doubtful about 5 or 6 in the top 10 (as are you, unless you have ETSU or Samford there…maybe you do?), but I don’t think it is unreasonable for a few SoCon to be there. In fact, I obviously am thinking along the lines of one or more, as indicated by my last week’s poll submission.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't take much stock of what FUBeAR lists as ranking. I mean he has Furman as 1b. Lol.

[FUBeAR]

I wouldn't take much stock of what FUBeAR lists as ranking. I mean he has Furman as 1b. Lol.
Why do you hate science?

[Reign of Terrier]

Say what you want about the socon, one of our playoff teams never lost to a squad with fewer scholarships. The Towson-Dusquesne game and SD-UNA game will always give me a chuckle.

[Redbird 4th & short]

ETSU has finished next-to-last in the SoCon for the past 2 seasons, with a combined SoCon record of 3-13. None of those 3 wins came over a SoCon Team that finished higher than 8th place. Until they prove otherwise by winning within the SoCon in 2024, they can logically be considered a “back of the pack” SoCon Team.

So ‘5 or 6 or more of those [other SoCon Teams]’ within your ‘argument’ may be more appropriate.

Except their mew HC did poach the 25 or 30 best players from the best GW team in memory .. at least that who I assume he poached. And according to Keepers, ETSU had 11 starters returning, GW returning just 2.7 starters. Plus he got another 9 from FBS teams. Hard to imagine how they allocated schollie money, and then how many kids they suddenly kicked to the curb.

Anyway, with all of those additions from the new wild wild west that is the Portal and powerless NCAA ... that is a lot of players to suddenly stack into their 2 deep along with 11 returning starters.

Can't wait to see what happens the first time a real P5 team does this .. hire a new HC away and ask him to bring 20+ of their best players along with.

[FUBeAR]

Except their mew HC did poach the 25 or 30 best players from the best GW team in memory .. at least that who I assume he poached.
And those 30 Players & new ETSU Head Coach were totally shut down in the Playoffs last season by a SoCon Team projected to be “middle-of-the-[SoCon] pack” this season.

Just sayin’ national voters/fans seem to want to ascribe “greatness” to an as-yet-unproven-in-the-SoCon-race / recently back-of-the-pack SoCon Team - ETSU - because they took NDSU to the wire … without ascribing ANY of that “greatness” to the SoCon.

FUBeAR assumes we will see a similar sort of commentary regarding a true middle-of-the-pack SoCon Team - WCU (5-3 in ‘23, 4-4 in the prior 2 seasons) - because of the way their game vs. the Griz in Missoula played out. WCU has NEVER won the SoCon in almost 50 years of trying.

The same people will also point to an extremely young, obviously re-building / re-loading (lost 40+ graduates), defending SoCon Champion - Furman’s - loss to Charleston Southern as “proof” of SoCon weakness. They will also include pre-season SoCon favorite - Chattanooga’s 0-3 record as more “proof” - despite that record coming against FBS #5, a very close 1-score loss that included leading in the 4th quarter to an FBS Team with an SEC win in their resume, and a very close 1-score loss to what very well may be a Top 10, currently undefeated, FCS (and SoCon) Team.

It’s an artful weave.

If ETSU & WCU totally dominate in their 1st 3 or 4 SoCon games, great - we can say, “See, those 2 are strong, but the SoCon, overall, is weak.” If not, then we shouldn’t say, “Ah…2 lucky games AND the SoCon is weak.”

The correct conclusion in that case would be, “Dang, the SoCon is deep. We need to be thinking about including 4 loss, and even 5 loss, SoCon Teams come Playoff Selection time.”


*TL/DR - Let’s wait a while before we conclude much about the relative strength/weakness of ETSU, WCU, and the SoCon.

[Bisonator]

I'll say it right now.......FURMAN SUCKS!!!:D

[FUBeAR]

I'll say it right now.......FURMAN SUCKS!!!:D
The very young foals of Furman are definitely sucking up College Football experience so far this season.

As they were accepted to advance their educations at Furman, we’ll assume they are very fast learners.

We’ll begin to see if that is true this week as they begin their tough play-everyone SoCon gauntlet vs. Samford.

[Reign of Terrier]

Except their mew HC did poach the 25 or 30 best players from the best GW team in memory .. at least that who I assume he poached. And according to Keepers, ETSU had 11 starters returning, GW returning just 2.7 starters. Plus he got another 9 from FBS teams. Hard to imagine how they allocated schollie money, and then how many kids they suddenly kicked to the curb.

Anyway, with all of those additions from the new wild wild west that is the Portal and powerless NCAA ... that is a lot of players to suddenly stack into their 2 deep along with 11 returning starters.

Can't wait to see what happens the first time a real P5 team does this .. hire a new HC away and ask him to bring 20+ of their best players along with.

So, funny thing about GW…They returned 0 starters this year. Before the Wofford-GW game i counted and there were 3 players on roster who had gotten a catch, rush, or tackle the year before. So, I’m not sure if that source is super accurate.

What the portal does do, however, is make it a lot easier to rebuild. GW had like 20 FBS transfers and a few high major FCS grad students. I talked to someone close to the wofford program, and the word was that they thought GW may be better than they were last year, in spite of lose everyone. I’ve watched a few of their games and that may or may not be true (maintaining my consistency of not rewarding teams too much for losing).

And that brings me back to Tre Lamb. He’s like a mix between Dabo Swinney and Jamie Chadwell. You can tell by the way he talks about the game that he’s a player’s coach, maybe in ways that make you roll your eyes. He’s definitely a good, offensive minded coach, but his weaknesses at GW were defense. I’m inclined to think even higher of him as an offensive coach, given that he’s running a somewhat different offense in year one than he did at GW, which tells you he knows how to adapt to what he has.

But at the same time, he was successful in the big south/ovc partially because it’s relatively easy to build up a program somewhat fast, especially when teams with prestige move up. Chadwell did it and Bohannon did it. Those teams were really good, played tough defense, and ran the ball, but were often limited come playoff time because they couldn’t reliably pass. GW was different because they could do anything on offense, but their defense was poor.

That could change when it comes to using socon prestige in FCS recruiting, but at the moment, i’d put ETSU’s defense under the microscope


And those 30 Players & new ETSU Head Coach were totally shut down in the Playoffs last season by a SoCon Team projected to be “middle-of-the-[SoCon] pack” this season.

Just sayin’ national voters/fans seem to want to ascribe “greatness” to an as-yet-unproven-in-the-SoCon-race / recently back-of-the-pack SoCon Team - ETSU - because they took NDSU to the wire … without ascribing ANY of that “greatness” to the SoCon.

FUBeAR assumes we will see a similar sort of commentary regarding a true middle-of-the-pack SoCon Team - WCU (5-3 in ‘23, 4-4 in the prior 2 seasons) - because of the way their game vs. the Griz in Missoula played out. WCU has NEVER won the SoCon in almost 50 years of trying.

The same people will also point to an extremely young, obviously re-building / re-loading (lost 40+ graduates), defending SoCon Champion - Furman’s - loss to Charleston Southern as “proof” of SoCon weakness. They will also include pre-season SoCon favorite - Chattanooga’s 0-3 record as more “proof” - despite that record coming against FBS #5, a very close 1-score loss that included leading in the 4th quarter to an FBS Team with an SEC win in their resume, and a very close 1-score loss to what very well may be a Top 10, currently undefeated, FCS (and SoCon) Team.

It’s an artful weave.

If ETSU & WCU totally dominate in their 1st 3 or 4 SoCon games, great - we can say, “See, those 2 are strong, but the SoCon, overall, is weak.” If not, then we shouldn’t say, “Ah…2 lucky games AND the SoCon is weak.”

The correct conclusion in that case would be, “Dang, the SoCon is deep. We need to be thinking about including 4 loss, and even 5 loss, SoCon Teams come Playoff Selection time.”


*TL/DR - Let’s wait a while before we conclude much about the relative strength/weakness of ETSU, WCU, and the SoCon.

I totally, 100% understand why people think socon fans are annoying. I truly do. I get it: lots of other conferences have better success in the playoffs, and we haven’t gotten to the semis in a long time.

But when you look at the weird double standards that have been argued historically when it comes to polling and playoff bids in the last 10 years or so, it’s totally understandable. Sure, there are always good arguments for any position, and if we took any situation and isolated it (Furman getting left out in 2018, Wofford not ranked in 2016 until November, Mercer being left out multiple times, and others) I could say “yes there is reasonable doubt here.”

But the reason why we are so annoying and fed up is that reasonable doubt only seems to hurt our conference and not others over the long term. At the end of the day, there’s enough of a pattern to suggest that the power players on committees just don’t respect our conference (did one of the montana ADs say something to the effect that they would give all at large bids to the MVFC and big sky if they could?).

It’s good that the socon is getting recognition for near misses, but the most likely outcome is getting 2 in this year. we will probably deserve 3-4. Only way we get that is by adding chuck south, Gardner webb, and PC and having inflated schedules for the teams that normally would finish 6-5 or 7-4.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just about 15 minutes left to cast your ballot voters so get on it if you have not yet.

[Redbird 4th & short]

And those 30 Players & new ETSU Head Coach were totally shut down in the Playoffs last season by a SoCon Team projected to be “middle-of-the-[SoCon] pack” this season. .....



This seems like it is mischaracterized ... Mercer (8-3, 6-2) finished tied for 2nd in Socon and got a deserved at large bid .. 9-4 overall, and 9-3 against FCS. And their preseason ranking was 20/22 nationally. Final rankings were 17/20. Not understanding why you would downplay them the way you did.

And aside from that, GW played Mercer tough in playoffs losing 17-7 at Mercer. Total yards (288 to 280) and 1st downs (16 to 14) were mostly even. GW was down 7 until mid Q4 FG by Mercer on a short field after GW had to punt from their own 1. Once down 10, the 2 of the 3 picks by Mercer occured on their last 2 desperation drives. Mercer punted 11 times to GW 7.

Lastly, the point was mainly that GW and ETSU have been able to combine the best of both rosters to form what looks like a much stronger team this year. I mean, it only makes sense. I don't like it at all ... but they did it, and I'm thinking they might be a pretty good team this year. They had Bison beat, before an amazing comeback by the Bison.

What am I missing here ?

[Houndawg]

OK, last one...for now. Southeast Missouri State had a very nice win this week over a highly regarded Southern Illinois team...@ SIU...by 3 scores. SEMO beat Tennessee-Martin by 3...in 2 OT...@ SEMO...just two weeks ago. I realize Tennessee-Martin did lose this week to Missouri State (who did receive votes this year before being excluded from the poll as transitional) by 7 pt, but 13 spots between SEMO and UT-M AND not ranking UT-M seems a bit harsh. Oh, and where does one place SIU in relation to UT-M now? Happy voting!

right now I'd give the nod to UTM. SIU lost their starting QB last week "for the foreseable future" and the backups first college start was against SEMO. SIU will be doing well to finish mid-pack in the MVFC and depending on what happens QB-wise is looking at 4-7/5-6 maybe 6-5 if we get a break season now. Just like that...wait until next year!

[FUBeAR]

This seems like it is mischaracterized ... Mercer (8-3, 6-2) finished tied for 2nd in Socon and got a deserved at large bid .. 9-4 overall, and 9-3 against FCS. And their preseason ranking was 20/22 nationally. Final rankings were 17/20. Not understanding why you would downplay them the way you did.

And aside from that, GW played Mercer tough in playoffs losing 17-7 at Mercer. Total yards (288 to 280) and 1st downs (16 to 14) were mostly even. GW was down 7 until mid Q4 FG by Mercer on a short field after GW had to punt from their own 1. Once down 10, the 2 of the 3 picks by Mercer occured on their last 2 desperation drives. Mercer punted 11 times to GW 7.

Lastly, the point was mainly that GW and ETSU have been able to combine the best of both rosters to form what looks like a much stronger team this year. I mean, it only makes sense. I don't like it at all ... but they did it, and I'm thinking they might be a pretty good team this year. They had Bison beat, before an amazing comeback by the Bison.

What am I missing here ?
Perspective.

FUBeAR attended the G-W @ Mercer Playoff game. Because FUBeAR was at the game and saw the game, FUBeAR said Mercer totally shut down those 30 Gardner-Webb Players and their Head Coach. After Mercer went up 14-0 and G-W hadn’t scratched thru a quarter and a half, the outcome of the game never seemed in the slightest doubt.

G-W’s lone score in the 2nd quarter came on a 72 yard drive that included 2 long passes that covered 65 of those yards. GWU barely crossed midfield after that. The Runnin’ Bulldogs came to Macon averaging close to 40 points per game in their 5 straight previous wins that put them in the Playoffs. About 4 or 5 scores below their recent average is what they managed in Macon. Almost certain that G-W’s OC would agree that they were shut down. Not gonna win too many College Football games scoring a single TD these days.

Those 30 Players from Gardner-Webb and their Head Coach, all now at ETSU, the Team that took the bizuns to the wire 2 weeks ago, were, as previously accurately stated, totally shut down by Mercer in the 2023 Playoffs.

Mercer was picked by the SoCon Coaches to finish 4th in the SoCon this 2024 season. That is “middle-of-the-pack” in the 9 Team SoCon.

Nothing about FUBeAR’s previous post is a “mischaracterization.”


Without granting an enormously optimistic impact to the concept of synergy, it seems challenging to say that a group of Players from a SoCon straggler combined with a group of Players from a Team that was totally shut down by what-was-expected to be a middle-of-the-pack SoCon Team, can suddenly be deemed “great” and “greater” than all things SoCon just because they scared the bejeebers out of the bizuns.

Maybe they (the ETSU/GWU mashup) are great. They can PROVE that by winning SoCon games.
Maybe the bizuns suck.
Maybe the SoCon is a dang tough conference

FUBeAR is seeing plenty of folks claiming or discussing the 1st and/or 2nd options, but no one calling out the 3rd as even a possibility worth noting.

Haven’t see the post yet that says, “Wow, this ETSU that just about whipped out beloved bizuns hasn’t even been competitive in the SoCon in the past 2 years. Because we know NDSU is Top 5 in FCS and we don’t yet know that ETSU is anything above #7 in the SoCon. Does that mean we ought to be thinking about those Top 3 or 4 SoCon Teams a bit more highly?”

We cannot, logically, consider the 1st 2 options as possibly true without acknowledging the 3rd. That’s all FUBeAR is saying.