AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 3, Fall 2024

[Preferred Walk-On]

Welcome voters and non-voters to another episode of How They Fared. I'm your host, Preferred Walk-On, and this week's action had a number of exciting finishes and close calls, but ultimately very few upsets of real significance.

In the "close shave" category, was a relative newcomer, #2 North Dakota State, "surviving" (if you can/should call it that) a scare from unranked and previously unnoted East Tennessee State. Also, #5 Villanova outlasted unranked Towson 14-13. In a SoCon battle of ranked foes, #16 Mercer knocked off #10 Chattanooga by a TD 10-3. #13 UC Davis also held off up-and-comer #34 Southern Utah 24-21.

Three upsets that did occur within the bottom 17-25 of the top 25 were #17 Youngstown State falling to unranked Duquesne at home 25-28, #22 Weber State losing by a failed PAT to unranked Lamar 16-17, and in a mild upset, #23 Elon coming up short to #30 Western Carolina 17-24.

On the rebound this week was not only Western Carolina, but also #28 Richmond brought #39 Charleston Southern back down to Earth by a score of 38-0. Also in the ORV category, #29 Wofford did lose in a close one to #14 William & Mary 21-28. And for those who hopped on the St. Francis bandwagon, it might be time to hop back off, as the #36 Red Flash fell to unranked conference foe Central Connecticut State 27-20.

While there are a couple of games entering the 4th quarter, this concludes this week's episode, and you can view How They Fared by CLICKING HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17bNSjQYtDvgK1It6vrKclF38W1DmswUziDZySA0FaB4/edit?usp=sharing). As always, updates will occur following completion of the remaining games, and your input is always welcome regarding the sheet and/or your perspective on who we should or should not be watching out for and why.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Forgot to add, as noted in another thread, #6 South Dakota did not play unranked Portland State, and this is reported in the HTF sheet as "NO CONTEST" (no win/loss recorded). If this changes and affects records somehow, the appropriate change will be reflected in future HTF sheets.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Forgot to add, as noted in another thread, #6 South Dakota did not play unranked Portland State, and this is reported in the HTF sheet as "NO CONTEST" (no win/loss recorded). If this changes and affects records somehow, the appropriate change will be reflected in future HTF sheets.

Whooping Cough was the reason that game was called off. Apparently took out a bunch of PSU teammates.

Southern Utah is probably better than anyone else in your bottom 10 on your ballot even though they lost a close one tonight. Not you PWO, anyone reading this.

Wofford definitely needs to get a closer look now too I think.

Poll will open shortly folks!

[Professor Chaos]

Give Rhode Island a look. Good win over Campbell today (who beat Western Carolina last week) and their win over Holy Cross looks better after today.

Goes without saying as a Bison fan but if NDSU is in your top 10 ETSU definitely needs to be in your top 25... they were clearly outplaying NDSU in both main phases of the game until the last 4 game minutes today.

[Preferred Walk-On]

Whooping Cough was the reason that game was called off. Apparently took out a bunch of PSU teammates.

Southern Utah is probably better than anyone else in your bottom 10 on your ballot even though they lost a close one tonight. Not you PWO, anyone reading this.

Wofford definitely needs to get a closer look now too I think.

Poll will open shortly folks!

I agree that some of the close losses (and a few of the wins) might need a good look to really make a determination about ranking. Southern Utah, Wofford, and even Wofford's last week opponent Richmond need some serious consideration IMO.

I would also like to submit that if you are going to rank SEMO, you had better have UT-M pretty close behind...see last week's HTF and this week's results for UT-M. I know it is North Alabama, but the Lions lost to Illinois State by 7 and the scores between SEMO v. UNA and UT-M v. UNA are pretty much identical. Of course if you don't rank either, then at least you are consistent with the two, but I just don't see it.

I'll be curious to see where ETSU and NDSU come in this week, especially relative to a few other MVFC teams. Also, I am hopeful that Mercer (and Chatty) get their dues.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

You are both smart dudes and I was just trying to spur a little discussion in exactly the direction you took it. ETSU did look very good today, Campbell I watched last week and they surprised me too a bit.

Early on it's always tough but I think the tips suggested in here so far as to teams to assess are spot on, all of them. Rhode Island, Richmond, etc. I was gonna say it is tough early on but at this point if you look at these teams objectively against some teams in your (generic "your") ballot then I bet you would have a tough time putting some of your "it's all crap after the T10 stuff in.

[kdinva]

thanks again for the spreadsheet......I'm getting cross-eyed trying to figure out who goes where......by November, we'll have a bunch of four loss teams in the poll, it's so balanced this Fall, IMO

[TheKingpin28]

Every year until about week 6/7, I feel like this saying becomes more relevant: I can get to about 10-12 and then it's a giant WTF after that.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[Preferred Walk-On]

I actually thought selecting 25 teams wasn’t that bad this week. Perhaps ranking the top 10, then starting over to rank the next 15 is the trick.

IMO there seems to have been enough meaningful H2H matchups (more than normal for this early?) to actually gauge 11-25. I had a harder time ranking 1-10, w/ D2 games, almost upsets, insular (same conference matchups) w/ close result, whooping cough, and FBS matchups that didn’t give a real good indication of team quality. For example, take South Dakota…D2 win, loss to Wisconsin (see how they fared yesterday), and a no contest. So, does a North Dakota team with a loss to Iowa State, win over Montana, and win over Idaho State have a better resume? Should South Dakota be a top 10 team with resume thus far (last season is not this season)? What about Mercer and Chattanooga? A hard fought game where a TD separates them. Both top 10 (I think possibly), neither top 10 (not likely), AND where do you place them in the pool of BSC and MVFC teams? And don’t even get me started on North Dakota State? The top 10 appears to be the dartboard, my friends.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[smilo]

I don't think it needs to be said, but Lamar should probably be ranked next week, maybe for the first time since I've posted here. The loss to Texas State looks rather good after Texas State's national tv performance.


Whooping Cough was the reason that game was called off. Apparently took out a bunch of PSU teammates.

Southern Utah is probably better than anyone else in your bottom 10 on your ballot even though they lost a close one tonight. Not you PWO, anyone reading this.

Wofford definitely needs to get a closer look now too I think.

Poll will open shortly folks!

When I left off last night these were going to be my first two teams out, along with perhaps UNH (and I was already ranking SUU last week which I expected to be a one time thing - they did better than I expected this week).

Waking up today, I don't think I can keep Towson in. Week 2 performance was not great. But I'm not sure who else to take out. Abilene Christian dropping from my #11 after a win? XD Or a good 0-3 team like Chatty or Nicholls (may be the latter for me)

Either way, very very tough. Though I do hope the voters finally punish Albany to make room. Illinois State too. Both have ugly past performances looking worse and continued to show they are pretenders.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm assuming I'm the only one who ranks Ivy League teams from the preseason onward?

I've had Yale and Harvard "taking up space" for 3 weeks. Based on what I see around FCS, I remain confident the Ancient 8 has 1 or 2 teams that deserve a seat at the Top 25 table. With that said, I expect it to take a week or two for their best teams to get their footing this season. Just like it takes everyone else time to settle in....

[grizband]

I'm assuming I'm the only one who ranks Ivy League teams from the preseason onward?

I've had Yale and Harvard "taking up space" for 3 weeks. Based on what I see around FCS, I remain confident the Ancient 8 has 1 or 2 teams that deserve a seat at the Top 25 table. With that said, I expect it to take a week or two for their best teams to get their footing this season. Just like it takes everyone else time to settle in....
Following Week 3, I don't think teams without a game played should be ranked. I won't judge anyone who does still rank based off preseason prognostications, but there is enough evidence right now not to include Ivy teams.

[The Cats]

Thanks for the wins and losses spreadsheet!!!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Following Week 3, I don't think teams without a game played should be ranked. I won't judge anyone who does still rank based off preseason prognostications, but there is enough evidence right now not to include Ivy teams.

I still struggled with the value of the evidence of some of the teams who have played 3 games. For instance, Nicholls has played two FBS teams then endured a hurricane prior to a trip to California to play a Top 25 Sac State squad. The Colonels may very well still be a Top 25 team because of the "who they are" evidence is so skewed.

Likewise with Lafayette. They're very good but that's largely based on who they have not who they played. I've gotten very little "voter value" from a competitive but still multiple possession loss to FBS Buffalo, a wild coin-flip win over Monmouth, and beating up on Marist who is a tomato can.

For Lehigh, their game against Princeton next Saturday serves as a significant barometer despite it being the Tigers first game. With a win I think people will really start believing again in Bethlehem; especially with Bucknell at home to follow. Holy Cross can regain quite a bit of equity by beating a stout Yale team imo.

[SeattleCat]

Welcome voters and non-voters to another episode of How They Fared. I'm your host, Preferred Walk-On, and this week's action had a number of exciting finishes and close calls, but ultimately very few upsets of real significance.

In the "close shave" category, was a relative newcomer, #2 North Dakota State, "surviving" (if you can/should call it that) a scare from unranked and previously unnoted East Tennessee State. Also, #5 Villanova outlasted unranked Towson 14-13. In a SoCon battle of ranked foes, #16 Mercer knocked off #10 Chattanooga by a TD 10-3. #13 UC Davis also held off up-and-comer #34 Southern Utah 24-21.

Three upsets that did occur within the bottom 17-25 of the top 25 were #17 Youngstown State falling to unranked Duquesne at home 25-28, #22 Weber State losing by a failed PAT to unranked Lamar 16-17, and in a mild upset, #23 Elon coming up short to #30 Western Carolina 17-24.

On the rebound this week was not only Western Carolina, but also #28 Richmond brought #39 Charleston Southern back down to Earth by a score of 38-0. Also in the ORV category, #29 Wofford did lose in a close one to #14 William & Mary 21-28. And for those who hopped on the St. Francis bandwagon, it might be time to hop back off, as the #36 Red Flash fell to unranked conference foe Central Connecticut State 27-20.

While there are a couple of games entering the 4th quarter, this concludes this week's episode, and you can view How They Fared by CLICKING HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17bNSjQYtDvgK1It6vrKclF38W1DmswUziDZySA0FaB4/edit?usp=sharing). As always, updates will occur following completion of the remaining games, and your input is always welcome regarding the sheet and/or your perspective on who we should or should not be watching out for and why.

As I've said before, you are a gentleman and a scholar, thanks for putting this all together.

[grizband]

I still struggled with the value of the evidence of some of the teams who have played 3 games. For instance, Nicholls has played two FBS teams then endured a hurricane prior to a trip to California to play a Top 25 Sac State squad. The Colonels may very well still be a Top 25 team because of the "who they are" evidence is so skewed.

Likewise with Lafayette. They're very good but that's largely based on who they have not who they played. I've gotten very little "voter value" from a competitive but still multiple possession loss to FBS Buffalo, a wild coin-flip win over Monmouth, and beating up on Marist who is a tomato can.

For Lehigh, their game against Princeton next Saturday serves as a significant barometer despite it being the Tigers first game. With a win I think people will really start believing again in Bethlehem; especially with Bucknell at home to follow. Holy Cross can regain quite a bit of equity by beating a stout Yale team imo.
All good points, with which I don't necessarily disagree. My philosophy is by now I won't vote for a team that hasn't played any games, because it's a recording of performance until now, not a prognostication of future standings. That's just my opinion, and I know my methods aren't perfect.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

All good points, with which I don't necessarily disagree. My philosophy is by now I won't vote for a team that hasn't played any games, because it's a recording of performance until now, not a prognostication of future standings. That's just my opinion, and I know my methods aren't perfect.

Well, my method is perfect so feel free to copy it. xlolx

Preseason 100% prognostication
Wk1 50% data, 50% prognostication.
Wk2 75% data,25% prognostication.
Wk3 90% data, 10% prognostication.
Wk4 100% data.

So, Ivies have a really tough time hanging on but you can't really treat them that much differently unless they just bounce in after one week but I think a lot of people also let them drift down on their ballots until they play. It's just a hard thing to look at objectively.

[Tribe4SF]

Having seen Wofford in person I am impressed. Play very hard and physical and feature a talented young QB and some outstanding WRs.

[Bisonator]

Give ETSU a look, they out played us and should have won the game. They played App St tough in week 1 too. I think they are going to make some noise in the SOCON this season.

[wcugrad95]

Agree on the Bucs. They probably deserve some attention as "most significant loss" this week given what it says about their team in a good way versus bad.

[Chalupa Batman]

I don't think it needs to be said, but Lamar should probably be ranked next week, maybe for the first time since I've posted here. The loss to Texas State looks rather good after Texas State's national tv performance.



The loss to Texas State is a little bit of fool's gold, they got outgained by about 200 yards in the game and scored 10 late points in the last 4 minutes to make it a 7 point loss. Mississippi Valley State was 15 yards away from tying the game with 6 minutes to go in the game. The Weber State win is nice, but I don't think we really know just how good Weber is either. They barely missed the cut for my ballot but they are definitely on the radar.