SoCon 2024 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 2

[FUBeAR]

Schedule only for now. All SoCon games this week are on Saturday 9/7. All times shown are Eastern.

FUBeAR will return later with his always-highly-anticipated SoCon Power Rankings…



AWAY
HOME
TIME


South Carolina State
The Citadel
12P


Campbell
WCU
1P


Bucknell
VMI
1:30P


Mercer
Bethune-Cookman

3P


Wofford
Richmond
3:30P


University of Virginia - Wise
ETSU
5:30P


Charleston Southern
Furman
6P


Chattanooga
Georgia State
7P


Samford
Florida
7P

[Reign of Terrier]

Give me:
Citadel (don't let me down bellhops!)
Western (looked good against NC State)
Bucknell (could see VMI rally)
Mercer (BC doesn't look great)
Wofford (homer pick, but we left a lot of points on the board against GW, Richmond looks good, but not elite, but I'll be honest, I think they're overrated - shocking take by me, I know)
ETSU (why are they scheduling UVA Wise still?)
Furman (though CSU could surprise)
Georgia State (Dell McGee is a good coach and will just be better than the mocs)
Florida (SEC SEC SEC)

Power rankings, just based on week one, don't over-read this, I am not crowning a champ or saying these will be the best teams, just best based on what we've seen and the socon had a bad day. If you're ranked low, it's because we know nothing about you, and I also don't typically reward people for losing (I'm not an MVFC/Big sky fan):

1) Mercer
2) Western
3) Wofford
4) Citadel
5)ETSU
6) Samford
7) UTC
8) Furman
9) VMI

If my picks go through, I anticipate the rankings to look like this next week. If a team I picked to win loses, they'll get bumped down, obviously, but the only team I picked to lose that I feel will compete is VMI, and even then, I don't see them jumping higher than 7th.

1) Mercer
2) Wofford
3) Western
4) Citadel
5) Furman
6) ETSU
7) UTC
8) Samford
9) VMI

I'll feel a lot more confident in power rankings in about early September, but at this stage in the season, I value wins in themselves and little stuff like third down defense/offense, yards per rush/yards given up per rush than top line numbers.

[wcugrad95]

Talk about a week where it is probably harder to do power rankings than it was before we had any game action. The only 2 teams IMO who have much to talk about were Mercer (as expected) and WCU. And Western played great for 3 quarters but in the end still lost by 17 points.

Wofford won a game I thought they probably should. GWU lost their coach and the top-half of their team to the portal (mostly to ETSU) so I thought the Terriers should be positioned to win and they still had to pull it out. I figured Citadel would be in a toss-up and they were. Samford was the biggest loser in power ranking value as they lost a game that I don’t think anybody expected them to. VMI was probably not far behind - I expected them to lose to the Tribe, but not to look so bad in doing so.

Of course the top pre-season teams in Chatty and Furman got embarrassed, but the teams they played will embarrass a lot of other FBS schools so I’d say let’s see them next week to gauge who they really are.

Too early to power rank mainly because of who all we played. Mercer has to be on top because they won by 53 points! WCU may have looked the best of any team but lost and gave up 500 yards of offense. So I’d use the cop-out and say power rankings are TBD.

[Reign of Terrier]

The thing with playing teams on a P4 level is that they make little mistakes look huge. You can sweep any mistakes under the rug as just not being applicable, or you can say there are big questions marks. But IMO the reality is much worse from an evaluation standpoint: you can't really say anything.

[Milktruck74]

The thing with playing teams on a P4 level is that they make little mistakes look huge. You can sweep any mistakes under the rug as just not being applicable, or you can say there are big questions marks. But IMO the reality is much worse from an evaluation standpoint: you can't really say anything.

You are correct. This week really didn't tell us too much about several of the teams... UTC, Furple, Mercer were as expected. Playing up or down doesn't really give a good picture. I saw some good things though.

The ETSU Running Bulldogs played better than I expected.

Wofford showed that they may be building on last seasons ending, but we don't know too much about the Original Running Bulldogs to compare, except their QB was pretty good at ETSU.

Citadel showed that they aren't going to quit fighting, which those kids always play hard.

VMI, well they do the best they can with the talent they can recruit. They have some players, but need to find several more to be competitive.

WCU showed they have talent to run with a mid tier ACC squad...I think their stock went up in my eyes...can they hold that momentum for the next 11 weeks?

And last, Sammy...They have a lot of work to do. Adam B. is a talented DC, but does Hatch give him enough schollys to be competitive?

[Reign of Terrier]

Since folks in the CAA thread are picking Richmond without much commentary, I will give the bull case for Wofford and the bear case against Richmond, starting with the latter.

First of all, Richmond wasn’t an obvious playoff team for me last year. Maybe this is a hindsight is 20-20 thing, but hear me out. They finished the regular season 8-3, but played no team in the regular season that ended up winning more than 6 games. 4 of the teams they played combined for a record of 4-39 (all wins). They lost to 2 teams who finished the season below .500. They didn’t play, let alone beat, any of the top CAA teams during the regular season, and when they did, they were routed by Albany.

If you take an average team and gave them this schedule (beat 4 bad teams, and 6 teams sitting at 5-6 or 6-5), that average team would finish no worse than 7-3 on average 50% of the time (beating the 4 bad teams and splitting the average teams), so richmond finishing 8-2 isn’t indicative of being super good.

They didn’t even break the top 25 in STATS until playoff time, which tells me had they lost to either of elon or w&m they probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs. And before someone says “and W&M/elon would have taken their place”….no. Just no. Elon would have been on the bubble and maybe gotten in on SOS OOC quality losses, but if william and mary converted their 2 point conversion on rivalry weekend, both would have sat home.

And then when I look at the stats from last season or the UVA game (with lots of salt, though UVA isn’t a powerhouse) there’s nothing on either side of the ball that screams dominance. Their QBs are a step down from Reece Udinski, and though a Russ Huesman team will feature a running QB prominently, this team doesn’t appear to light up the rush stats like those Chattanooga teams a decade ago. Huesman is a defensive guy at heart and i see the spiders running a lot of 4 man fronts this year (noticing a lot more of this at the fcs level recently with GW and Samford this weekend too), and I guess you could say overall the defense isn’t bad. But the last 4-6 games the Spiders haven’t been all that good on defense statistically, especially compared to the 4ish games where they played those awful 1-10 teams.

Obviously, all of this is caveated with the fact that it’s a brand new year and last year isn’t this year. But I feel confident in saying, regardless of the outcome this week, I’m not confident Richmond is a top 15 team.

The bull case for Wofford is pretty simple. We’re just better Our defense was pretty stellar last year, and will have less of a learning curve in year 2 of the system. We brought back most of our 2 deeps and got better in the portal. Against GW, we looked pretty good against the run, and only gave up 20 when we spotted the running bulldogs field position at the 40 or better for 3 of their scores (13 points).

And, to be frank, I don’t like taking high stakes bets personally (anything greater than $50 for me), but I would bet a lot of money that our offense this year will be much better this year as long as Odom is running the show and staying healthy. Last year our offense was pathetic, and we could really only score points if we got lucky or the other team got unlucky. On Thursday, it was the inverse, as we left anywhere from 13 to 17 points on the field by making mistakes like penalties and dropped passes (which will happen in August). That stuff is going to get cleaned up.

In the last month of the season last year, Wofford struggled, but without much of an offense, the last 4 games we beat Furman, won another game, pushed a top 20 Western team, and though i won’t pretend the mercer game was super competitive, we only lost by 2 TDs (and non-offensive touchdowns were the difference). Odom only played against Furman.

All of that said, believing in Wofford after the last 4 years is a gamble. There’s no conclusive reason to think we can win 2 straight. The safe pick is Richmond, for sure. But if you really think this will be a blowout, I don’t think you’ve paid enough attention to either team.

[bonarae]

The Citadel
WCU
Bucknell
Mercer
Richmond
ETSU
Furman
Georgia State
Gators

[Milktruck74]

Since folks in the CAA thread are picking Richmond without much commentary, I will give the bull case for Wofford and the bear case against Richmond, starting with the latter.

First of all, Richmond wasn’t an obvious playoff team for me last year. Maybe this is a hindsight is 20-20 thing, but hear me out. They finished the regular season 8-3, but played no team in the regular season that ended up winning more than 6 games. 4 of the teams they played combined for a record of 4-39 (all wins). They lost to 2 teams who finished the season below .500. They didn’t play, let alone beat, any of the top CAA teams during the regular season, and when they did, they were routed by Albany.

If you take an average team and gave them this schedule (beat 4 bad teams, and 6 teams sitting at 5-6 or 6-5), that average team would finish no worse than 7-3 on average 50% of the time (beating the 4 bad teams and splitting the average teams), so richmond finishing 8-2 isn’t indicative of being super good.

They didn’t even break the top 25 in STATS until playoff time, which tells me had they lost to either of elon or w&m they probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs. And before someone says “and W&M/elon would have taken their place”….no. Just no. Elon would have been on the bubble and maybe gotten in on SOS OOC quality losses, but if william and mary converted their 2 point conversion on rivalry weekend, both would have sat home.

And then when I look at the stats from last season or the UVA game (with lots of salt, though UVA isn’t a powerhouse) there’s nothing on either side of the ball that screams dominance. Their QBs are a step down from Reece Udinski, and though a Russ Huesman team will feature a running QB prominently, this team doesn’t appear to light up the rush stats like those Chattanooga teams a decade ago. Huesman is a defensive guy at heart and i see the spiders running a lot of 4 man fronts this year (noticing a lot more of this at the fcs level recently with GW and Samford this weekend too), and I guess you could say overall the defense isn’t bad. But the last 4-6 games the Spiders haven’t been all that good on defense statistically, especially compared to the 4ish games where they played those awful 1-10 teams.

Obviously, all of this is caveated with the fact that it’s a brand new year and last year isn’t this year. But I feel confident in saying, regardless of the outcome this week, I’m not confident Richmond is a top 15 team.

The bull case for Wofford is pretty simple. We’re just better Our defense was pretty stellar last year, and will have less of a learning curve in year 2 of the system. We brought back most of our 2 deeps and got better in the portal. Against GW, we looked pretty good against the run, and only gave up 20 when we spotted the running bulldogs field position at the 40 or better for 3 of their scores (13 points).

And, to be frank, I don’t like taking high stakes bets personally (anything greater than $50 for me), but I would bet a lot of money that our offense this year will be much better this year as long as Odom is running the show and staying healthy. Last year our offense was pathetic, and we could really only score points if we got lucky or the other team got unlucky. On Thursday, it was the inverse, as we left anywhere from 13 to 17 points on the field by making mistakes like penalties and dropped passes (which will happen in August). That stuff is going to get cleaned up.

In the last month of the season last year, Wofford struggled, but without much of an offense, the last 4 games we beat Furman, won another game, pushed a top 20 Western team, and though i won’t pretend the mercer game was super competitive, we only lost by 2 TDs (and non-offensive touchdowns were the difference). Odom only played against Furman.

All of that said, believing in Wofford after the last 4 years is a gamble. There’s no conclusive reason to think we can win 2 straight. The safe pick is Richmond, for sure. But if you really think this will be a blowout, I don’t think you’ve paid enough attention to either team.

I didn't pick Woffy this week, but there is not much here I could argue with. At this point in the season, we just don't have too much to go on, and your argument is as good as any.

[Reign of Terrier]

I didn't pick Woffy this week, but there is not much here I could argue with. At this point in the season, we just don't have too much to go on, and your argument is as good as any.

I’ll take that as a dub xlolx

[FUBeAR]

Schedule only for now. All SoCon games this week are on Saturday 9/7. All times shown are Eastern.

FUBeAR will return later with his always-highly-anticipated SoCon Power Rankings…



AWAY
HOME
TIME


South Carolina State
The Citadel
12P


Campbell
WCU
1P


Bucknell
VMI
1:30P


Mercer
Bethune-Cookman
3P


Wofford
Richmond
3:30P


University of Virginia - Wise
ETSU
5:30P


Charleston Southern
Furman
6P


Chattanooga
Georgia State
7P


Samford
Florida
7P


Predictions to come later in the week…

FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Ranking

1. Furman - Of course FUBeAR was less than enamored with what he witnessed in Oxford last evening, but as many wise posters have already said here in this thread, not a lot was revealed about the quality or relative strengths of these SoCon Teams in some of these games. So, while FUBeAR is strongly tempted to move the Paladins down in his Power Rankings, he is going to heed the advice of those with more intelligence than this Bear of very little brain and defer such a move until more data points are available.

1. Mercer - Mercer did soundly SEC-over-FCS-like defeat an FCS Team that notched a win last season over a SoCon Team that FUBeAR sees is ranked here as high as 2nd, so there is certainly no reason at all to drop the Bears out of his top spot. There was a lot to like about Thursdays victory over the Ho’s. Defensive starters and back-ups played exceptionally well and with high energy except for 1 series. There was some sloppiness on O and the OL still looks they need to gel, but the new skill Players were impressive, including the new QB. With a successful trip to a hostile Daytona Beach this week, we’ll anxiously await their trip to the Scenic City for an early season showdown of top SoCon Championship contenders the following Saturday night … with FUBeAR planning to attend…hopefully on the sidelines, as he was when he cheered the Paladins on to the SoCon Championship over the TrainDrivingAvians there last Fall.

3. Chatt - See “1.” above

4. WCU - FUBeAR was enjoying Mercer’s big win (along with the fantastic hospitality) from the President’s Suite in Maconga last Thursday, so he did not see the Cats put a scare into the RaleighPups and he hasn’t gone back to watch. He has heard wonderful reviews from all parts though, so the PurpleKitties move up 2 spots. Can they get over the hump(s) this week and keep it rolling at home vs. a dangerous Campbell Team that was within late-game striking distance of a Liberty Team, whose only loss last season was to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl?

5. ETSU - FUBeAR predicted the MountainSwashBucklers would upset the Appy’s on Saturday and he feels if they could have scored a TD from the 3 yard line to close the score to 17-14 late in the 3rd quarter, that momentum would have propelled them to manifest FUBeAR’s projection. But, some boneheadedness forced them to take a FG and that actually swung LadyMo back to the MountainRears. This Team has talent. They will gain confidence in their Home opening scrimmage this week and be a ‘tough out’ for any SoCon Team. They do drop a spot, but only because of the Catamounts surprisingly strong showing over in Wake County.

6. Wofford - With a win over a back-to-back Playoff Team, albeit a heavily depleted Gardner-Webb squad, the Mini-Pups did the SoCon a solid and move up in FUBeAR’s Power Rankings. Pull off 6 to 8 arachnid legs in Richmond on Saturday and the LittleDogs journey back to some measure of respectability will be officially underway.

7. CIT - Winning a ‘trophy’ game on the road over a cross-swamp FCS rival, while coming off a winless season is an outstanding accomplishment for the bellhops. If they can just hold serve at home on Hall of Fame Weekend against SC State, another ‘just-up-the-road’ rival, this Saturday, their chances at opening SoCon play @ Mercer in a few weeks as an undefeated squad are excellent. If Mercer is able to get past Chatt the week before, we could have yet another early-season SoCon showdown of undefeated Teams. FUBeAR also plans to attend that one, so he will be a bellhop ‘fan’ for the next 2 weeks.

8. Samford - ”because everyone knows that the 3rd consecutive year of bringing in 40 transfers is always the best year!” - FUBeAR is leaving his Week1 comment here for consideration. UWG, as FUBeAR has noted, will be competitive fast in FCS, but Samford just could not lose that game and hope to retain any semblance of respectability. Putting the final nail in Furman Alum’s, Billy Napier’s, coffin in Gainesville this week could change all that immediately…and gift Mr. Napier with $26 million to stay home and putter in his garden all Fall. OTOH, the BullPups are seriously in danger of coming winless into Travelers Rest on 9/28.

9. VMI - Haven’t watched the game, but it seems the Roos never left the pouch during their contest in Williamsburg. This is not acceptable for a SoCon Team to do in a game vs. a CAA Team. The row in LexVegas is a tough one to hoe, but they must find a way. Another poor showing at home this week against a Bucknell Team that ‘hung around’ for a half @ Navy could lead to FUBeAR opening proceedings to have the LargeMarsupials voted off of SoCon Island.

[ElCid]

SC ST @ The Citadel - My Dogs had a fairly emotional game so I am always a little cautious about the next game. There was a bit of improvement as the game went on. The Grad QB is a real player. His passing ability is the best we have had in years. We had quite a bit of good running as well when we didn't try to just hand off up the middle. I'm going to have faith and think we are going to build on the confidence gained from the come from behind victory. My Dogs - 34-26

Campbell @ WCU - Western did ok against a good P5. It was obviously a lot closer than the final score indicated. Hope they don't take it too hard or be over confident this week. They should handle the Camels at home, but Campbell hung in there with Liberty for while. Cats in a close one - 38-31

Bucknell @ VMI - Obviously didn't see the game, but looks like the Keydets got abused by W&M. These two have a history of close games so anything could happen, but I think VMI is going to have a rough time of it this year. 31-27

Mercer at B-C - Mercer should handle them with little difficulty even on the road. 45-17

Wofford at Richmond - Richmond may very well be ranked too high. They didn't do great against a mediocre ACC team. And while they won with a late rally, Wofford had to deal with an almost entirely new G-W. They are definitely better than recently, but the Spiders will pull it out at home. 28-24

Virginia-Wise @ ETSU - They didn't play bad against Appy. This will be a scrimmage as expected. 55-3

Charleston Southern @ Furman - CSU got shocked late and Furman got abused. Both will play hard. Hard to judge what Furman has since they had a top 10 FBS to contend with. But they will bounce back better at home. 38-17

UTC @ Ga St - As with Furman, we really didn't get to see how Chatty will look this year due to their opponent. Ga St got rolled by a surging Tech. I can definitely see the Mocs keeping this close, but it may be a bit much having back to back FBS games. 34-17

Samford @ Florida - Samford has to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the conf. They could keep it close for a while or get abused like Chatty or Furman did this past week. You just never know. They will lose though. 56-10

I think the biggest game will be the Wofford one. Obviously due to Richmond's ranking. The Citadel/SC St and WCU/Campbell game are also high on the list. The Furman and Mercer games are probably a given, and the VMI game not very impactful either way.

Power Rankings are tough given the opponents this past week. So until we get more, I going to have to go with some preseason bias as well as this past week's results.

1 - Mercer - Did exactly what they should have
2 - WCU - Overachieved, even if they lost
3 - Furman - ?? even if embarrassing
4 - UTC - ?? even if embarrassing
5 - The Citadel - Hung in and got the victory on the road. I bumped them a little above Wofford only because the comeback was a little bigger.
6 - Wofford - Hung in and got the victory on the road
7 - ETSU - Not embarrassed, but still an L for the transfer team
8 - Samford - Got embarrassed by what is still a glorified Div II team
9 - VMI - Got embarrassed

[The Cats]

Campbell at Western Carolina
SC State at The Citadel
Bucknell at VMI
Mercer at Bethune-Cookman
Wofford at Richmond
UVA Wise at ETSU
Charleston Southern at Furman
Samford at Florida
Chattanooga at Georgia State


power rankings later...

[ElCid]

Campbell at Western Carolina
SC State at The Citadel
Bucknell at VMI
Mercer at Bethune-Cookman
Wofford at Richmond
UVA Wise at ETSU
Charleston Southern at Furman
Samford at Florida
Chattanooga at Georgia State


power rankings later...

VMI going to have a tie?

[The Cats]

VMI going to have a tie?

Thanks for pointing that out xthumbsupx

[The Cats]

Power Poll...

1. Western Carolina (0-1, 0-0SoCon)
Next: Campbell

2. Mercer (1-0, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Bethune-Cookman

3. Chattanooga (0-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: at Georgia State

4. Furman (0-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Charleston Southern

5. Wofford (1-0, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: at Richmond

6. ETSU (0-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: UVA-Wise

7. Samford (0-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: at Florida

8. The Citadel (1-0, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: SC State

9. VMI (0-1, 0-0 SoCon)
Next: Bucknell

[The Cats]

http://twitter.com/Catamounts/status/1830612559214395874

[caribbeanhen]

Mercer QB DJ Smith can spin some tunes …. Looks like a player

[FUBeAR]

Mercer QB DJ Smith can spin some tunes …. Looks like a player
It was a nice Off-Broadway debut with just a few flubbed lines.

We’ll see how he does when the neon lights are bright, by George.

[FU_Paladin08]

Power Rankings:
Furman
Chatt
WCU
ETSU
Mercer
Samford
Wofford
CIT
VMI

[caribbeanhen]

It was a nice Off-Broadway debut with just a few flubbed lines.

We’ll see how he does when the neon lights are bright, by George.

but does he know every crack on these dirty sidewalks of Broadway? Is Campbell on the sked?

[Mocs123]

SC State - 27
The Citadel – 28 – Another Palmetto State win for the Bulldogs

Campbell - 24
Western Carolina -35 – The Catamounts win a solid OOC game.

Bucknell - 21
VMI – 27 – The Keydets are able to pull out the OOC win at home.

Mercer – 35 – The Bears have a good beach vacation.
Bethune-Cookman - 17

Wofford - 17
Richmond – 31 – Russ Huesman parties like it’s 2014

UV Wise – 10
ETSU – 49 – Mountain Pirates by as many as they want.

Charleston Southern -19
Furman – 41 – The Paladins take out some frustrations on the coastal Bucs.

Chattanooga - 21
Georgia State – 28 - Do the Mocs have a chance at an upset here? – yes, but after last weeks beatdown we have a lot of work to do. Go prove me wrong Mocs!!

Samford - 10
Florida – 52 – The Gators are mad, and take it out on the Bulldogs

[FUBeAR]

Wofford - 17
Richmond – 31 – Russ Huesman parties like it’s 2014
Did you mean 13 points for the PorchYappers?

[FUBeAR]

but does he know every crack on these dirty sidewalks of Broadway? Is Campbell on the sked?
They would have been if they had hired former Griz HC Joe Glenn to replace Mike Minter

[BearDownMU]

Power Rankings:
Furman
Chatt
WCU
ETSU
Mercer
Samford
Wofford
CIT
VMI

Are you coming after FUBeAR's title? lol

[Reign of Terrier]

So I fully anticipate Wofford being ranked by the time they play Wofford (or at least by season’s end) and if that happens, Wofford will have played 4 consecutive ranked teams. If we come out the other end of that stretch with a winning record (to say nothing if GW climbs into the rankings by the end of the year to make it a retrospective 5), Wofford would have a case at 7-5 this year or nothing matters for the playoffs.

[wcugrad95]

Not sure who you are saying will be ranked since you say when Wofford plays Wofford, but my guess is it will be tough for a 7-win SoCon team to make it. WCU will most likely face 5 ranked teams (Elon, Montana, Chatty, Furman, and Mercer). If we go 7-5 (and 7-4 against FBS teams) I still don’t think we would make it in a 12-game season.

[ElCid]

Not sure who you are saying will be ranked since you say when Wofford plays Wofford, but my guess is it will be tough for a 7-win SoCon team to make it. WCU will most likely face 5 ranked teams (Elon, Montana, Chatty, Furman, and Mercer). If we go 7-5 (and 7-4 against FBS teams) I still don’t think we would make it in a 12-game season.

I think he meant Mercer since they aren't ranked in the coaches poll. Both Mercer and WCU are ranked in the AGS poll. And Richmond and W&M are ranked in both polls. Also I think you meant 7-4 against FCS, not FBS. If it were FBS, you'd be in for sure.

[Reign of Terrier]

Not sure who you are saying will be ranked since you say when Wofford plays Wofford, but my guess is it will be tough for a 7-win SoCon team to make it. WCU will most likely face 5 ranked teams (Elon, Montana, Chatty, Furman, and Mercer). If we go 7-5 (and 7-4 against FBS teams) I still don’t think we would make it in a 12-game season.

It would depend on who lost to whom and in what fashion, but I would say so long as western won their 2 OOC games not as Montana, they should make it at 7-5 or 8-4.

[gofurman]

I ABSOLUTELY think we are living in a new world order.

now you have 7-10. UBER FREAKIN ELITE teams who buy anyone they want in an instant transfer. Like a trade deadline. Unlimited pockets. $$$$$$$. I’m not saying Furman will be good. Have to see. But for Furman and Chatt etc these are just crazy games v. Ole Miss and Tennessee. example Furman was paid 500k to play at Ole Miss. ole Miss paid a Defensive Lineman 800k - one guy - to join the team. ONE GUY well more than they paid the entire Furman TEAM! I also heard they bought 20ish players this year to go for the CFP and start a Heisman campaign for Jaxson Dart.

my point is this. I LOVE FCS over FBS scalps but they are going to dwindle as these (SEC primarily but a few others) teams create an enormous chasm. Not just between FCS but even in FBS. Great example? Three time national Champion Clemson didn’t take any NIL transfers. UGA wore them out by 30. Clemson fans are mad. IF you want to win you are going to have to pay literal Millions.

part of this I am arguing throw out the stupid Furman and Chattanooga scores. But hey, maybe we stink - though Lane Kiffin is a TOTAL AZZHOL. even went for vs Furman up 14-0 on a 4th and 3 at our 10 yard line instead of taking a Fg!!! WTF. No one does that. Watched our coaches presser. He was PISSED. noting Ole Miss went TEMPO the whole freakin game. Our coach said “I’ve been on the other side of this, and that’s not how we handle these things”.

but overall just saying we now have maybe. 1) 10 NIL MONEY teams …. Then the 2) rest of FBS top 25 … then 3) the rest of FBS

believe me. I was pulling for SDSU etc. And Ok State ain’t close to the top of the SEC. but times they are a changing. I hate it.

[FU_Paladin08]

Furman over CSU
Chatt over Ga State
WCU over Campbell
ETSU over VA Wise
Mercer over Bethune
Florida over Samford
Richmond over Wofford
SC State over CIT
Bucknell over VMI

[wcugrad95]

With how bad last week looked for scores, we really need to pickup as many OOC games vs FCS opponents as possible these next couple of weekends to help the entire conference out with perception. Might be a tall order for Wofford to beat a ranked Richmond team, but we need at least 4 wins from the WCU, Furman, VMI, Mercer, and Citadel games. A scalp by the Mocs would also be nice.

My winners are:
Furman
Ga State
WCU
ETSU
Mercer
Florida
Richmond
Citadel
VMI

6-3 for the league, but I really think Chatty has a good shot to win as well.

[Reign of Terrier]

As a sidenote, I just want to point out how broken Massey Ratings are right now. And as a general thing, I want to apologize for being so model-brained over the last 7 years or so. I have lots of criticisms of models in general, not just in sports, but Massey is awful right now. For instance: they give Richmond an 89% chance of beating Wofford, with an expected line of 17 points. On first blush, that's fine, just an opinion.

But then you look at Richmond's schedule. Right now, Massey thinks this game is Richmond's third-most likely victory, only giving them a higher chance over Delaware State and Charleston Southern. The problem is that Wofford is higher ranked than 5 of Richmond's remaining schedule, and of the teams Richmond is favored to beat (Hampton), smashed them last year. There's a contradiction there.

I guess the model ways heavily on how Wofford performed offensively last year, as the Terriers are only expected to put up 14 points on the Spiders, but man, that is an assumption that "doesn't know ball" as the kids say.

These models are bad, and a lot of their data is heavily influenced by availability heuristic (i.e who played whom) and they really shouldn't be taken seriously until way late in the season, and even then with a grain of salt.

[wcugrad95]

Yeah - models are still built with at least some biases baked in. They should get better each week with more data, but they start off skewed and it takes a long time for those biases to be removed. We argue it frequently, but there is no doubt that the perception that teams are strong because they play in certain conferences sway things. That is also multiplied when many of those teams/conferences start with so many ranked teams. There is last and previous season's success baked-in.

[ElCid]

As a sidenote, I just want to point out how broken Massey Ratings are right now. And as a general thing, I want to apologize for being so model-brained over the last 7 years or so. I have lots of criticisms of models in general, not just in sports, but Massey is awful right now. For instance: they give Richmond an 89% chance of beating Wofford, with an expected line of 17 points. On first blush, that's fine, just an opinion.

But then you look at Richmond's schedule. Right now, Massey thinks this game is Richmond's third-most likely victory, only giving them a higher chance over Delaware State and Charleston Southern. The problem is that Wofford is higher ranked than 5 of Richmond's remaining schedule, and of the teams Richmond is favored to beat (Hampton), smashed them last year. There's a contradiction there.

I guess the model ways heavily on how Wofford performed offensively last year, as the Terriers are only expected to put up 14 points on the Spiders, but man, that is an assumption that "doesn't know ball" as the kids say.

These models are bad, and a lot of their data is heavily influenced by availability heuristic (i.e who played whom) and they really shouldn't be taken seriously until way late in the season, and even then with a grain of salt.

Having looked these computer rating systems for a number of years and recording their results for a four year period, they don't vary a whole lot over the course of a season. That being predicting to actual outcome. I also copied the entire seasons predictions, every single game in the season, before the season, as well as the current, updated weekly predictions. On average, it only varies by a couple percentage points in accurately predicting an outcome between the preseason and weekly predictions.

We've discussed this before. Most of these computer systems only use who they played (SOS), where, and what the score was. There are weighting changes due to time as well. I don't know any that utilize staters returning, injuries, coaching changes, scheme changes, or any intangible factor. It also magnifies some team's and conference's ratings, up or down, as a result of their schedule insolation. The Ivy is the poster child for that obviously. The less OOC games to factor means less connection. I think they use a beginning rating based on their previous seasons record while looking at the strength of that schedule. In Massey's case, he does not actually use the historic scores to directly rewicker the actual predictions each week, just the rating. Then the rating is used to predict the score. But he uses home field and SOS and W/L result to determine the score. That's a rough overview. But the number of scores that are sometimes within a point or two is always curious. But even a broken clock is correct twice a day. The initial rating is important, but as the weeks go by, they become less weighted so a team doing good does move up based on its W/L and SOS. I've seen it. It's why Wofford moved up 26 spots this past week. Even though I don't think G-W is the G-W of last year. Right now the Computer thinks it is. Same applies to us and CSU. If I'm right these wins will look less impressive each week to the computer and the updated ratings will reflect this. If I'm wrong, they will get more positive weight.

Most models in any field are bad. They are created by people and they reflect the flaws of those who create them. I've said it many times, there are some systems out there that are home cooked by those who created them. Go look at the Massey composite. There are crazy systems out there. It's always good for laugh to see a team have a high and low ranking be something like #5 on one and #85 on another. The real question is what percentage of success is predicting an outcome is acceptable? Massey and Sagarin, if I recall correctly, averaged in the mid to upper 70s% when I did my evaluation years ago. But that's about what I did or you can do. I usually just cross check them as an additional data point and idiot check. Broke? Eh. They are what they are.

[BearDownMU]

I ABSOLUTELY think we are living in a new world order.

now you have 7-10. UBER FREAKIN ELITE teams who buy anyone they want in an instant transfer. Like a trade deadline. Unlimited pockets. $$$$$$$. I’m not saying Furman will be good. Have to see. But for Furman and Chatt etc these are just crazy games v. Ole Miss and Tennessee. example Furman was paid 500k to play at Ole Miss. ole Miss paid a Defensive Lineman 800k - one guy - to join the team. ONE GUY well more than they paid the entire Furman TEAM! I also heard they bought 20ish players this year to go for the CFP and start a Heisman campaign for Jaxson Dart.

my point is this. I LOVE FCS over FBS scalps but they are going to dwindle as these (SEC primarily but a few others) teams create an enormous chasm. Not just between FCS but even in FBS. Great example? Three time national Champion Clemson didn’t take any NIL transfers. UGA wore them out by 30. Clemson fans are mad. IF you want to win you are going to have to pay literal Millions.

part of this I am arguing throw out the stupid Furman and Chattanooga scores. But hey, maybe we stink - though Lane Kiffin is a TOTAL AZZHOL. even went for vs Furman up 14-0 on a 4th and 3 at our 10 yard line instead of taking a Fg!!! WTF. No one does that. Watched our coaches presser. He was PISSED. noting Ole Miss went TEMPO the whole freakin game. Our coach said “I’ve been on the other side of this, and that’s not how we handle these things”.

but overall just saying we now have maybe. 1) 10 NIL MONEY teams …. Then the 2) rest of FBS top 25 … then 3) the rest of FBS

believe me. I was pulling for SDSU etc. And Ok State ain’t close to the top of the SEC. but times they are a changing. I hate it.

A few things here:

1) I think UGA wears Clemson out regardless. That D is completely insane.
2) Not sure if you watched Mercer v Mole Ms. last year, but Lane did the same thing. It's just what he does.
3) I also really hate how NIL works at the moment, but it doesn't make more insanely good football players. If anything, I think it does the opposite of what you're suggesting at the FBS level. All of a sudden, teams like Miss. are in the mix for a player that, without some stupid NIL deal, is going to UGA, Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama. Like the Alabama corner that was committed to UGA and flipped to Ohio State at the last minute. Heard OSU gave him a million dollars. Yep. That'll do it. Certainly you are correct that only some school will have the money to do that, but I think it really does spread the talent around more because someone will for sure consider South Carolina over Georgia or Alabama for an extra $250k. And, let's be honest, the likelihood of an FCS team beating a TOP 20 team and REAL thin anyway. Impact because of this is marginal at best.
4) Finally, there are for sure more than 10 FBS teams that can put large buckets of money together.

[kdinva]

Campbell 24; Western Carolina 45
SC State 17; The Citadel 20
Mercer 38; Bethune-Cookman 20
Wofford 17; Richmond 31
UVA Wise 8; ETSU 49
Charleston Southern 16; Furman 46
Samford 23; Florida 45
Chattanooga 20; Georgia State 34
Bucknell 23; VMI 31

[FUBeAR]

Campbell 24; Western Carolina 45
SC State 17; The Citadel 20
Mercer 38; Bethune-Cookman 20
Wofford 17; Richmond 31
UVA Wise 8; ETSU 49
Charleston Southern 16; Furman 46
Samford 23; Florida 45
Chattanooga 20; Georgia State 34
Bucknell 23; VMI 31
Can your Keydets score 31 and win?

They’ve done that exactly 1 time since October of 2021.

FUBeAR hopes so, but he remains a bit skeptical.

[Reign of Terrier]

The fact that the computers have Richmond favored by 17 points, yet none of the gambling sites i can find have a line for this one, tells me that Vegas agrees with me. Not that Wofford will necessarily win, but that you’re probably setting money on fire if you think Richmond wins big.

For those who care, there was a line for the GW game, and i want to say it opened at -8.5 or -10.5 for the running bulldogs and closed at -6.5 or so. Vegas isn’t as confident that the Terriers are a pushover.

[wcugrad95]

Since 5dimes went away I haven't had a lot of luck finding reputable lines on many of the FCS games. This is what I found on the Action Network site:


https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png

The Release of FCS Lines




I have been betting FCS football for years, and only this year have I seen FCS lines released long before kickoff. It remains to be seen if this will continue throughout the 2024 season, but many books such as FanDuel, DraftKings and bet365 released major FBS vs. FCS lines way ahead of schedule for Weeks 0 and 1.
The typical experience is that the FCS betting menu gets released one by one at about 11 a.m. ET on the day of the game. This provides advantages and disadvantages both to the bettor and the bookmaker.
They don’t have the extended exposure and can pivot quickly when receiving bets, while the bettor has to be prepared to fire away quickly at the computer right away on Saturday morning.

[wcugrad95]

Don't get me wrong - I want Wofford to beat Richmond for the sake of the conference (just like I want all of us to win this weekend). I also like that you guys and Citadel got OOC wins last week. I love the enthusiasm, but I'd say most people want to see more from really all the SoCon teams after last week and particularly teams like Wofford and Citadel after last season. I think you guys are improved, and we know every year there is a good chance of mayhem in league play.

Retroactively I found a spread for the GW vs Wofford game. Opened at Wofford getting 7.5 and closed with the Terriers getting 3. The O/U opened at 47.5 and closed at 49.5. Vegas was off on both counts, and is a good indication of why they typically stay out of FCS games until the last minute. You beat a GW team with all new coaches and half of the team had to be replaced. So I think most people want to see how things go this week before making a call on a lot of us in the SoCon.

[ElCid]

The fact that the computers have Richmond favored by 17 points, yet none of the gambling sites i can find have a line for this one, tells me that Vegas agrees with me. Not that Wofford will necessarily win, but that you’re probably setting money on fire if you think Richmond wins big.

For those who care, there was a line for the GW game, and i want to say it opened at -8.5 or -10.5 for the running bulldogs and closed at -6.5 or so. Vegas isn’t as confident that the Terriers are a pushover.

Actually I saw G-W at -3.5 as a final. But betting lines are even more inaccurate than the non betting computers. All it takes is one proud, but misguided, possibly inebriated, alum to plop down 10 grand on their team to move the points. Obviously depending on how much has been bet. Not very scientific and prone to huge bias. Vegas will always move the points to minimize their potential loss regardless of the most likely game result.

If it makes you feel better, Sagarin has Richmond winning by just 4.

[Sandlapper Spike]

I think there were some big late moves on a few FCS-vs.-FCS lines last week. I suspect that was mostly due to the lines being out there much longer than normal (as opposed to this week, for example).

Computer systems trying to project early-season games in the transfer portal era have a tough task. Trying to project early-season FCS games in the transfer portal era is undoubtedly exponentially more difficult.

This is what my power rating system cooked up for the SoCon, Week 2 for the FCS-vs.-FCS games. The other three games are not based on any system, because my setup doesn't evaluate FCS-vs.-non-FCS games.

I have no real confidence in any of this (especially in early September).

Mercer 38, Bethune-Cookman 12 (my only concern is that it is a road game)
Richmond 32, Wofford 13 (could be overrating Richmond here)
VMI 28, Bucknell 24 (if you argued that is about 10 points too many for both teams, I wouldn't argue)
Furman 35, Charleston Southern 14 (that actually seems about right to me)
South Carolina State 24, The Citadel 23 (incidentally, this could be a bad-weather game, which might scramble things)
Western Carolina 38, Campbell 32 (honestly not sure Campbell will score this many points)
East Tennessee State 56, UVA-Wise 7 (lots of guys get to play)
Florida 59, Samford 21 (Florida needs a big win, and Samford appears defensively challenged to say the least)
Georgia State 23, Chattanooga 20 (can Mocs rebound from last week to pull off FBS upset?)

--

I wish Chattanooga had played Georgia State before facing Tennessee. I really would have liked the Mocs' chances against the Panthers in that scenario.

[FUBeAR]

AWAY
HOME
YOU’LL SEE


South Carolina State
The Citadel
Hall of Fame Game for the Bellhops. FUBeAR was supposed to attend and also be present at the induction ceremony to honor one of the inductees; FUBeAR’s Coaching Colleague. But, due to unavoidable circumstances, FUBeAR is unable to make the trip to honor his well-deserving friend’s long overdue recognition. That’s right, FUBeAR, despite hating the bellhops with every fiber of his being, does have 1 bellhop alum that he loves and respects. Don’t tell anyone! FUBeAR is also devastated that he will not be able to enjoy The Marching 101 from SCSU. They are a real treat. Finally, FUBeAR regrets that he will not be able to witness the resurgent BullPuppies win their 2nd game in a row. Coach Drayton has them believing. The new QB is the real deal and FUBeAR fully expects The Citadel, after dusting off North Greenville, to head to Maconga on 9/21 for an early season showdown of undefeated and ranked SoCon Teams.

CIT 24 - SCSU 14


Campbell
WCU
Both of these Teams were within FBS scalp-taking range last week and this game should be a dandy. The Catamounts should pack Whitmire and their Freshman Class runout should be a sight to behold. Points will be plentiful, but, in the end, it will be the toughness on D that simply inures from playing a SoCon schedule will be the difference in the 4th quarter. It should be close for a while, but the highly aspirational PurpleKitties pull away late.

WCU 49 - Campbell 31


Bucknell
VMI
Home opener at Alumni Memorial Field is always an exciting time, regardless of the unpleasantness of last week’s upset loss to a CAA Team. The Roo’s Offense gets to hoppin’ on both hind legs this week and Coach Rocco’s famously tough Defense punches these bizuns in the mouth early.

VMI 30 - Bucknell 17


Mercer
Bethune-Cookman
Mercer, while not quite hitting on all cylinders last week, and facing an inferior PFL squad, still looked like a Football Team that has a very high ceiling this Fall. With more gelling of the O-Line expected (a True FR started and their transfer with P4 offers did not play vs. PC) and a few more game reps by a few new starters on D, these Bears could definitely challenge to capture their 1st-ever SoCon Championship. FUBeAR has not seen The B-C Wildcats whomping by USF, but the box score does not look pretty and they were 3-8 in ‘23. It will be a hostile environment, but should be another, and more challenging, tune-up to prepare the Bears for the next 2 weeks of match-ups of ranked SoCon Teams - @ Chatt & home vs. CIT

Mercer 49 - B-C 10


Wofford
Richmond
Woffy eked out a good gut-check win last week and, while the Arachnids made the final score at YouVeeAy look semi-respectable, they were really not very competitive in that contest. Richmond, foolishly buys into the completely unwarranted CAA hype, looks at the LittleDog’s ‘23 record, and shows up like Coach Huesman’s 2016 Mocs did (or didn’t) against the PorchYappers. As expected, the superior SoCon prevails again.

Wofford 21 - Richmond 20


University of Virginia - Wise
ETSU
D2 (un)Wise was 2-9 last year, this is their 1st game, and the MountainScalawags, with a better 3rd quarter possession inside the Appy’s 5 last week, could have turned that game and taken a scalp. Coach TLamb is ready to display the Louis he brought and FUBeAR hears he is an admirer of Coach J. Freshwater. He can name the score in this one. How ‘bout he names this one…

ETSU 77 - UVa-Wise 0


Charleston Southern
Furman
Furman plays their 1st game of the 2024 season this week with a challenge coming inland from some pirates that can, relatively-speaking, access deep water. The Baptist College Bucs have some talent, as they showed last week against a good & soon-to-be-ranked squad from The Citadel. But, they don’t have enough to hang with one of the top 2 Teams in the SoCon. Furman, in all black uni’s, terrorizes the North Charleston marauders.

Furman 42 - Charleston Southern 17


Chattanooga
Georgia State
The Scenic City NativeAmericanSoftLeatherShoes are also making their 2024 season debut this week in Hotlanta at Turner Field. FUBeAR would love nothing more than for the SnakesOnATrain to hit a home run and scalp the Panthers, but he thinks they’ll be looking ahead to next week’s SoCon vs. an undefeated Mercer Team. The Mocs will compete, but will come home winless.

Georgia State 24 - Chattanooga 20


Samford
Florida
- Billy Napier is the Head Coach of the Florida Gators.
- Billy Napier is the beleaguered Head Coach of the Florida Gators.
- Billy Napier NEEDS this game to be an unquestionable show of complete dominance from the opening Kickoff to the final whistle.
- Billy Napier is a Furman Alum.
- Billy Napier, when playing for Furman, LOVED his OL Coach, Clay Hendrix, who is now the Head Coach at Furman, and was Furman’s Head Coach in 2022.
- If Furman had won their 2022 game vs. Samford, Furman would have been the SoCon Champions and Samford would have finished as the runner-up
- In that 2022 Samford @ Furman game, there was an Official’s ruling against Furman on a replay, similar to the UCA @ Arkansas State situation last week. The SoCon issued a public apology after the game and the White Hat was terminated (with prejudice), but the results of the game were, of course, not overturned.
- Coach Chris Hatcher is the Head Coach of Samford.
- Coach Chris Hatcher was the Head Coach of Samford in 2022.
- Coach Chris Hatcher played a very vocal and active role, delaying the game for 23 minutes, in influencing the heinous ruling that resulted in the SoCon apology and Official’s termination.
- Without question, Coach Billy Napier knows that Coach Chris Hatcher played a primary and nefarious role in a shameful event which, ultimately, played a significant part in his Alma Mater and his favorite College Coach not winning a SoCon Championship.
- Samford looked mostly inept in their opening game against a transitioning D2 to FCS Team.

Coach Napier can name the score in this one. How ‘bout he names this one…

Florida 77 - Samford 0



FUBEAR’s Week 2 SoCon picks / scores are above.


FUBeAR’s SoCon Power Ranking

1. Furman - Of course FUBeAR was less than enamored with what he witnessed in Oxford last evening, but as many wise posters have already said here in this thread, not a lot was revealed about the quality or relative strengths of these SoCon Teams in some of these games. So, while FUBeAR is strongly tempted to move the Paladins down in his Power Rankings, he is going to heed the advice of those with more intelligence than this Bear of very little brain and defer such a move until more data points are available.

1. Mercer - Mercer did soundly SEC-over-FCS-like defeat an FCS Team that notched a win last season over a SoCon Team that FUBeAR sees is ranked here as high as 2nd, so there is certainly no reason at all to drop the Bears out of his top spot. There was a lot to like about Thursdays victory over the Ho’s. Defensive starters and back-ups played exceptionally well and with high energy except for 1 series. There was some sloppiness on O and the OL still looks they need to gel, but the new skill Players were impressive, including the new QB. With a successful trip to a hostile Daytona Beach this week, we’ll anxiously await their trip to the Scenic City for an early season showdown of top SoCon Championship contenders the following Saturday night … with FUBeAR planning to attend…hopefully on the sidelines, as he was when he cheered the Paladins on to the SoCon Championship over the TrainDrivingAvians there last Fall.

3. Chatt - See “1.” above

4. WCU - FUBeAR was enjoying Mercer’s big win (along with the fantastic hospitality) from the President’s Suite in Maconga last Thursday, so he did not see the Cats put a scare into the RaleighPups and he hasn’t gone back to watch. He has heard wonderful reviews from all parts though, so the PurpleKitties move up 2 spots. Can they get over the hump(s) this week and keep it rolling at home vs. a dangerous Campbell Team that was within late-game striking distance of a Liberty Team, whose only loss last season was to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl?

5. ETSU - FUBeAR predicted the MountainSwashBucklers would upset the Appy’s on Saturday and he feels if they could have scored a TD from the 3 yard line to close the score to 17-14 late in the 3rd quarter, that momentum would have propelled them to manifest FUBeAR’s projection. But, some boneheadedness forced them to take a FG and that actually swung LadyMo back to the MountainRears. This Team has talent. They will gain confidence in their Home opening scrimmage this week and be a ‘tough out’ for any SoCon Team. They do drop a spot, but only because of the Catamounts surprisingly strong showing over in Wake County.

6. Wofford - With a win over a back-to-back Playoff Team, albeit a heavily depleted Gardner-Webb squad, the Mini-Pups did the SoCon a solid and move up in FUBeAR’s Power Rankings. Pull off 6 to 8 arachnid legs in Richmond on Saturday and the LittleDogs journey back to some measure of respectability will be officially underway.

7. CIT - Winning a ‘trophy’ game on the road over a cross-swamp FCS rival, while coming off a winless season is an outstanding accomplishment for the bellhops. If they can just hold serve at home on Hall of Fame Weekend against SC State, another ‘just-up-the-road’ rival, this Saturday, their chances at opening SoCon play @ Mercer in a few weeks as an undefeated squad are excellent. If Mercer is able to get past Chatt the week before, we could have yet another early-season SoCon showdown of undefeated Teams. FUBeAR also plans to attend that one, so he will be a bellhop ‘fan’ for the next 2 weeks.

8. Samford - ”because everyone knows that the 3rd consecutive year of bringing in 40 transfers is always the best year!” - FUBeAR is leaving his Week1 comment here for consideration. UWG, as FUBeAR has noted, will be competitive fast in FCS, but Samford just could not lose that game and hope to retain any semblance of respectability. Putting the final nail in Furman Alum’s, Billy Napier’s, coffin in Gainesville this week could change all that immediately…and gift Mr. Napier with $26 million to stay home and putter in his garden all Fall. OTOH, the BullPups are seriously in danger of coming winless into Travelers Rest on 9/28.

9. VMI - Haven’t watched the game, but it seems the Roos never left the pouch during their contest in Williamsburg. This is not acceptable for a SoCon Team to do in a game vs. a CAA Team. The row in LexVegas is a tough one to hoe, but they must find a way. Another poor showing at home this week against a Bucknell Team that ‘hung around’ for a half @ Navy could lead to FUBeAR opening proceedings to have the LargeMarsupials voted off of SoCon Island.

[caribbeanhen]

The South Carolina State at The Citadel game was a tough one, went back and fourth so much I forgot who I picked

[TribeNomad1]

I was at the UVA game (yes, entire game), hard to get read on Richmond, though they were really scrappy. UR did not seem fast, but they have some size and were not really physically pushed around by VA. Not sure if that is just another not good UVA team, or if Richmond is solid. Richmond QB is big, and their running back #38, stocky and low to the ground. Hard to get a read from one game (see VMI/WM), so will be interested in the Wofford game given Tribe trip to Spartanburg next week.

[Milktruck74]

At this point...

Citadel looks to have a little DAWG in them.
WCU is leaning on Defense to keep them in the game
VMI is doing what it takes to get a SoCon OOC victory!

We will see.

[ElCid]

Couldn't pull it out. Our D is suspect and our O is mediocre and inconsistent. Blocking was bad. Play calling, eh. A couple bad penalties early hurt us at inopportune times. SC St played ball control and wore out our D as well. Still, improved over last year, so going in the right direction.

[Milktruck74]

Couldn't pull it out. Our D is suspect and our O is mediocre and inconsistent. Blocking was bad. Play calling, eh. A couple bad penalties early hurt us at inopportune times. SC St played ball control and wore out our D as well. Still, improved over last year, so going in the right direction.

Yes, but they never gave up. That is the Citadel I remember. They may be down 40 points, but they will be bringing it EVERY PLAY. Coach Drayton is bringing back that mentality.

[Milktruck74]

Adams is Ok...But WCU is MISSING that RB that went to Pitt. He breaks through those arm tackles and takes it to the house...Adams doesn't.

[ElCid]

Everybody imploding today.

[Milktruck74]

Mercer should be up 14-0 by this point....looks like a SoCon ****e show this week....MAybe my Mocs can help by providing a scalp!

[ElCid]

Wofford losing well into the 2nd qtr by a baseball score - 0-5. Of note is they have -7 yards. But they've only given up 5 points. So there is that. It's early.

[Milktruck74]

Unfortunately for the SoCon games aren't 75 minutes long or, Citadel would probably have a Win...VMI would too...and WCU would have time to come back.

[FUBeAR]

Maybe some home-Cookin’ in Daytona?



Penalties
Mercer -
14-128
Bethune-Cookman -
4-30



Mercer up 28-2 in 4th

[BearDownMU]

Let's good SparkleDogs!

[FUBeAR]

Unfortunately for the SoCon games aren't 75 minutes long or, Citadel would probably have a Win...VMI would too...and WCU would have time to come back.
https://cdna.artstation.com/p/assets/images/images/022/213/686/medium/johnny-boston-thumbnail-image5.jpg?1574550672

[ElCid]

Wofford seems to have found themselves. Pretty much over. But not quite. Up by 14 now.

[Milktruck74]

As a sidenote, I just want to point out how broken Massey Ratings are right now. And as a general thing, I want to apologize for being so model-brained over the last 7 years or so. I have lots of criticisms of models in general, not just in sports, but Massey is awful right now. For instance: they give Richmond an 89% chance of beating Wofford, with an expected line of 17 points. On first blush, that's fine, just an opinion.

But then you look at Richmond's schedule. Right now, Massey thinks this game is Richmond's third-most likely victory, only giving them a higher chance over Delaware State and Charleston Southern. The problem is that Wofford is higher ranked than 5 of Richmond's remaining schedule, and of the teams Richmond is favored to beat (Hampton), smashed them last year. There's a contradiction there.

I guess the model ways heavily on how Wofford performed offensively last year, as the Terriers are only expected to put up 14 points on the Spiders, but man, that is an assumption that "doesn't know ball" as the kids say.

These models are bad, and a lot of their data is heavily influenced by availability heuristic (i.e who played whom) and they really shouldn't be taken seriously until way late in the season, and even then with a grain of salt.


Not quite sure we need a 67th book....but ROT is quite prophetic. way to call it and congrats on the win. Way to make the SoCon look good this week.

[ncspiderfan]

Wofford seems to have found themselves. Pretty much over. But not quite. Up by 14 now.

Final now Wofford 26 Richmond 19

Congrats to Terriers, they outplayed Spiders totally for the last three quarters. Been kind of hinting around on our board all week that Wofford was better than most expect.

[Milktruck74]

Final now Wofford 26 Richmond 19

Congrats to Terriers, they outplayed Spiders totally for the last three quarters. Been kind of hinting around on our board all week that Wofford was better than most expect.

Woffy has been getting better since middle of last year. I'm not ready to put them in the top half of the socon, but they could ruin somoeone's run!

[FUBeAR]

The Hedden Era may have just begun at FU

[ElCid]

Looks like Furman finally woke up.

Side note, G-W up on JMU late in second qtr. Could make Wofford's win last week look even better.

[wcugrad95]

Great win by Wofford. I will skip saying how WCU didn’t do this or that - Campbell just played better. I am hoping the Camels are World Beaters, but as MilkTruck pointed out WCU is missing some guys who were home run hitters who are now hitting those dingers for an ACC team.

Not going to say our O went with Kade given it is Kerwin’s offense, and not going to say Western is awful/we suck just yet. But huge letdown in Cullowhee after such a good showing in Raleigh last week. We literally looked better against a P4 team. But again - kudos to what I think might be a sneaky-good Camels squad.

[ElCid]

Wow. Chatty just marched down the field to score, for the lead, with relative ease against GA St. A scalp is definitely doable. They were pushing GA St around.

[Milktruck74]

Go Mocs!

[Reign of Terrier]

Richmond will be a very good team if they can find a QB. Their defense is tough and their run game is also tough, but they can't lean on either of their QBs to carry them. Richmond is a good team. I don't think this is the best version of them you'll see this year. I couldn't tell you if they'll make the playoffs, but they aren't a bad team. That last touchdown and attempted late rally wasn't a fluke, it was the result of just being super physical all days long. Wofford had a DL or two nicked up at the end, was already down a LB going in due to injury and lost another to a targeting call.

Huesman and staff definitely had us scouted out really well for the first few possessions, but Watson et all adjusted well.The first 10-15 plays for wofford are scripted, and so it's no coincidence that we rallied and did better after that point.

Very proud of the effort by the Terriers. Best team win in years. Defense kept us in it in the first half, offense pulled us away late, and defense ultimately held on to win. Let's hope we can heal up for William and Mary.

Go Terriers!

[Milktruck74]

Richmond will be a very good team if they can find a QB. Their defense is tough and their run game is also tough, but they can't lean on either of their QBs to carry them. Richmond is a good team. I don't think this is the best version of them you'll see this year. I couldn't tell you if they'll make the playoffs, but they aren't a bad team. That last touchdown and attempted late rally wasn't a fluke, it was the result of just being super physical all days long. Wofford had a DL or two nicked up at the end, was already down a LB going in due to injury and lost another to a targeting call.

Huesman and staff definitely had us scouted out really well for the first few possessions, but Watson et all adjusted well.The first 10-15 plays for wofford are scripted, and so it's no coincidence that we rallied and did better after that point.

Very proud of the effort by the Terriers. Best team win in years. Defense kept us in it in the first half, offense pulled us away late, and defense ultimately held on to win. Let's hope we can heal up for William and Mary.

Go Terriers!

Congrats to the woffy pups....yall did the SoCon proud.

[ElCid]

UTC game fairly even. Could go either way.

Samford hanging tough with Florida, but they may fade in the second half.

Furman beating themselves.

[ncspiderfan]

Richmond will be a very good team if they can find a QB. Their defense is tough and their run game is also tough, but they can't lean on either of their QBs to carry them. Richmond is a good team. I don't think this is the best version of them you'll see this year. I couldn't tell you if they'll make the playoffs, but they aren't a bad team. That last touchdown and attempted late rally wasn't a fluke, it was the result of just being super physical all days long. Wofford had a DL or two nicked up at the end, was already down a LB going in due to injury and lost another to a targeting call.

Huesman and staff definitely had us scouted out really well for the first few possessions, but Watson et all adjusted well.The first 10-15 plays for wofford are scripted, and so it's no coincidence that we rallied and did better after that point.

Very proud of the effort by the Terriers. Best team win in years. Defense kept us in it in the first half, offense pulled us away late, and defense ultimately held on to win. Let's hope we can heal up for William and Mary.

Go Terriers!

Congrats to Wofford on the win.

I would not sell Wofford's defense short. Your defensive backs shut down the leading competition percentage QB in all of FCS last year, the backup that came in late was not far behind him in percentage last year when the starter was out hurt. Spider pass blocking was not that bad, there was not anyone open to throw it to many times.

I looked like to me the best team won the game. GL to Terriers the remainder of the season. I do not see them finishing 8th in the SoCon as predicted in preseason by many.

[Libertine]

I can't believe how bad Furman looks tonight. What the furple is happening here?

[FUBeAR]

I can't believe how bad Furman looks tonight. What the furple is happening here?
44 2023 Paladins are no longer on the roster. Almost all, if not all, of them have Furman degrees, but they are not on the field at Paladin Stadium tonight.

[Milktruck74]

FoolBear is even...except the bellhops were able to beat CSU at their place.... and Mercer did Ok....but... BCU is just BAD.

[Milktruck74]

Damn.....It looks like the Bellhops are better than Furple.. FoolBare?

[FUBeAR]

Damn.....It looks like the Bellhops are better than Furple.. FoolBare?
https://c.tenor.com/Zz5yZ5lWVZEAAAAC/tenor.gif

[ElCid]

Mocs very much alive. Nice 84 yard TD pass.

[Milktruck74]

Sam Phillips is the Modern day Steve largent....He is good for about 7 possession catches...and then THAT!!!!

- - - Updated - - -


https://c.tenor.com/Zz5yZ5lWVZEAAAAC/tenor.gif

Except....

[Reign of Terrier]

That Furman team last year was generationally good. They were going to take a step back with all of the players they lost. Chuck South isn't bad either. They just have the vulnerabilities of a team that leans heavily on run/read option/playing in the OVC

[Reign of Terrier]

Congrats to Wofford on the win.

I would not sell Wofford's defense short. Your defensive backs shut down the leading competition percentage QB in all of FCS last year, the backup that came in late was not far behind him in percentage last year when the starter was out hurt. Spider pass blocking was not that bad, there was not anyone open to throw it to many times.

I looked like to me the best team won the game. GL to Terriers the remainder of the season. I do not see them finishing 8th in the SoCon as predicted in preseason by many.

Yeah, now that you mention it, we should probably take credit for having Wickersham complete less than 50% of his passes, given his stats from last year. Richmond DBs were good all day too. Tough coverage. I think they missed a couple PIs, but it was good enough that I can see why the flag wasn't thrown

[Milktruck74]

Mocs are trying to get a scalp....probably not...but still trying.

[ElCid]

Mocs moving!

[ElCid]

Oops. Game over. Good try though. Mocs generally looked good.

[Milktruck74]

Not upset....It would have been better toi get a scalp....but We didn;t lose to Chuck South, who lost to the Citadel....

[FUBeAR]

Not upset....It would have been better toi get a scalp....but We didn;t lose to Chuck South, who lost to the Citadel....
How you gonna feel at 0-3 though?

[kdinva]

While I am ticked about the Keydets, after looking at the SoCon top to bottom, we got work to do if the SoCon wants to be a top-4 FCS league.

[caribbeanhen]

While I am ticked about the Keydets, after looking at the SoCon top to bottom, we got work to do if the SoCon wants to be a top-4 FCS league.

I saw the pick six

funny thing was the play right before that should’ve been a pick six, but he dropped it

[caribbeanhen]

Great win by Wofford. I will skip saying how WCU didn’t do this or that - Campbell just played better. I am hoping the Camels are World Beaters, but as MilkTruck pointed out WCU is missing some guys who were home run hitters who are now hitting those dingers for an ACC team.

Not going to say our O went with Kade given it is Kerwin’s offense, and not going to say Western is awful/we suck just yet. But huge letdown in Cullowhee after such a good showing in Raleigh last week. We literally looked better against a P4 team. But again - kudos to what I think might be a sneaky-good Camels squad.

there were Bells
in those hills
but I never saw them winning…..
no, I never saw that at all..

back when they were hired
there was music and wonderful roses
they tell me….

[Reign of Terrier]

Will say that the ref at the wofford Richmond game could not pronounce Wofford correctly

[caribbeanhen]

Will say that the ref at the wofford Richmond game could not pronounce Wofford correctly

congrats on the win yesterday, admittedly after watching the first 10 minutes I thought you were in for a long day but then Richmond started passing the ball to invisible WR's,..... all day long you had them smothered and they had no chance throwing the ball, not sure if your D is that good or the Spiders are that scary in the skill positions. The second string QB did get things moving but mostly with his feet. From what is could make out from channel surfing yesterday you have to be in the geographical northern part of the Southern Conf standings this year after it's all said and done

[Reign of Terrier]

As I said before, it's hard to say how good Richmond is, and what flaws they had were either their own to own or forced by Wofford. Richmond likes to throw the ball somewhat shorter for easy completions with the occasional deep ball (as far as I can tell).

They really really really want to run the ball, and that #38 is going to be a menace this year in the CAA.

Wofford did a pretty okay (but not great) job of stopping the run, but had no answer for the physical running of the QB. We did well with keying on the running backs, but the QB gave us pain. And toward the end, we were definitely worn down via attrition, and their QB2's fresh legs caused havoc. That's not making excuses, that's by design for Huesman.

I'll admit I'm a little worried about the W&M game because of the physicality of the Richmond game left us a little beat up. Could really use a bye. If William and Mary were an air raid team, I'd be a little more confident, but they're going to run right at us too

[ElCid]

As I said before, it's hard to say how good Richmond is, and what flaws they had were either their own to own or forced by Wofford. Richmond likes to throw the ball somewhat shorter for easy completions with the occasional deep ball (as far as I can tell).

They really really really want to run the ball, and that #38 is going to be a menace this year in the CAA.

Wofford did a pretty okay (but not great) job of stopping the run, but had no answer for the physical running of the QB. We did well with keying on the running backs, but the QB gave us pain. And toward the end, we were definitely worn down via attrition, and their QB2's fresh legs caused havoc. That's not making excuses, that's by design for Huesman.

I'll admit I'm a little worried about the W&M game because of the physicality of the Richmond game left us a little beat up. Could really use a bye. If William and Mary were an air raid team, I'd be a little more confident, but they're going to run right at us too


Better not blow it at home. I just moved Wofford into my poll. I hate taking teams out after having just entered them in. Computer has you as a ten point underdog and Massey now has Wofford the highest rated SOCON team. It also has W&M as just a two point favorite at Richmond later on. Definitely doable. They will be beat up a bit after CCU as well. A win here can get Wofford into the top 15.

[The Cats]

Congrats to Wofford on the win. Nice pick up for the conference as the two purple teams laid eggs yesterday.

[The Cats]

What can you say after your team laid a big egg on game day?


http://twitter.com/GoCamelsFB/status/1832568228603728322

[Reign of Terrier]

Man, I don’t mean this as any disrespect to WCU, but it probably stings a little bit to lose to Campbell and they refer to it as their biggest win in program history. Like, I know it’s because the ranking, which WCU earned, but the normie FCS watcher will say “really?” and the pessimistic WCU fan is going to say “they haven’t beaten anyone better?’

[wcugrad95]

I think Campbell will have some more wins this season. Don’t know about ranked ones, but as bad as Western looked the Camels had a lot to do with that.

Could have been WCU had their heads up their butt and expected to coast after playing well in week 1. Or could be the Camels are really good. I am hoping for the latter, as Campbell had some dudes out there, has a good O-line, and played great defense (at least this last Saturday).

WCU is not good enough to turn the ball over 5 times and beat anybody.

[FUBeAR]

I think Campbell will have some more wins this season. Don’t know about ranked ones, but as bad as Western looked the Camels had a lot to do with that.

Could have been WCU had their heads up their butt and expected to coast after playing well in week 1. Or could be the Camels are really good. I am hoping for the latter, as Campbell had some dudes out there, has a good O-line, and played great defense (at least this last Saturday).

WCU is not good enough to turn the ball over 5 times and beat anybody.
Asked this question on Sat. in the “Scores” thread. Didn’t see that any WCU, or even SoCon, fans responded…

“0 TD’s by WCU’s Offense. Damn! Was Kade the real brains of their O?”

Thoughts?

[The Cats]

Asked this question on Sat. in the “Scores” thread. Didn’t see that any WCU, or even SoCon, fans responded…

“0 TD’s by WCU’s Offense. Damn! Was Kade the real brains of their O?”

Thoughts?

Yes, Kade is that good, that's why he's now running the offense for Pitt. However, the real brain is Kerwin, but he's not running the offense. That may change before the season is out.

[Reign of Terrier]

As a fan who has "been through it" the last 5 years, and this sounds *kinda* cliche I'll admit, you can't underestimate the value of coaching and development at this level.

For the most part, the talent level in the FCS is pretty much at parity with each other. Development is one dimension of coaching, but so is situational awareness and experience, knowing how to lead a program, and other stuff.

I think Kerwin Bell knows how to run a program, but I don't think he was running the same offense when he was at Jacksonville (I could be wrong about that), so taking a little bit of a step back isn't super surprising. That doesn't mean it's a terminal decline or anything, but one doesn't have greatness be an essential part of their character when one's a coach. You grow into being great.

I think Furman's DC last year (not sure if he's still there or not). Staggs left for Coastal a few years ago and he wasn't a terrible replacement, and a few years later he led an elite defense.

It's enticing to think of people and people doing jobs as static and unchanging and not getting better OR that one's football program is bigger than one coach or player, but I think in general FCS football is more unstable than people think and the "lifers" at the top are the ones who keep things stable.

[caribbeanhen]

Asked this question on Sat. in the “Scores” thread. Didn’t see that any WCU, or even SoCon, fans responded…

“0 TD’s by WCU’s Offense. Damn! Was Kade the real brains of their O?”

Thoughts?

I dinged the Bells somewhere on here in song

You can ring my bell
Anita Ward

[FUBeAR]

As a fan who has "been through it" the last 5 years, and this sounds *kinda* cliche I'll admit, you can't underestimate the value of coaching and development at this level.

For the most part, the talent level in the FCS is pretty much at parity with each other. Development is one dimension of coaching, but so is situational awareness and experience, knowing how to lead a program, and other stuff.

I think Kerwin Bell knows how to run a program, but I don't think he was running the same offense when he was at Jacksonville (I could be wrong about that), so taking a little bit of a step back isn't super surprising. That doesn't mean it's a terminal decline or anything, but one doesn't have greatness be an essential part of their character when one's a coach. You grow into being great.

I think Furman's DC last year (not sure if he's still there or not). Staggs left for Coastal a few years ago and he wasn't a terrible replacement, and a few years later he led an elite defense.

It's enticing to think of people and people doing jobs as static and unchanging and not getting better OR that one's football program is bigger than one coach or player, but I think in general FCS football is more unstable than people think and the "lifers" at the top are the ones who keep things stable.
Without Kade Bell at Jacksonville, Kerwin Bell’s winning % was a respectable .630.
With Kade Bell in the program, the Dolphins winning % jumped to .673.

NOTE: Neither of the above metrics factor out the 30 PFL wins that Jacksonville had to vacate because of cheating by violating PFL rules while Kerwin Bell was the Head Coach there.

Kade was on the Staff @ Valdosta State all 3 years of Kerwin Bell’s Head Coaching tenure there. They enjoyed a .794 winning percentage at that stop.

They both were on Staff at South Florida in 2019, but only won at a .333 clip that season…and Kerwin Bell was not the Head Coach, so we don’t include this record in the Overall tabulation below.

Reunited (hey, hey) at WCU in 2021, the pair had a .515 winning pace until 2024 arrived and Kerwin Bell is, so far, batting .000 without Kade on Staff.

So…as a pair, they have a Career Winning Percentage of .664.

Without Kade in his program, Kerwin Bell’s Head Coaching Winning Percentage dips to .604.

- Is that 60 percentage point dip without Kade a significant metric? Kerwin Bell was a college Head Coach for 4 years before Kade joined him. They were a pair for the next 12 years of Kerwin Bell’s Coaching career and, in 2024, Kerwin’s program is Kade-less again. So the overall sample size is rather large.

- Is WCU’s 0-2 start an indication of the Kade-less effect?

- Is 0 Offensive TD’s against a Team that had allowed almost 40 ppg in their most recent 8 games prior to their trip up to Cullowhee even more indicative of what we will see from a KadelessKat Offense?

[Reign of Terrier]

For some reason, i have a reputation as a western hater. I’m really not. I’m not inclined to think one game without an offensive touchdown - where you turned the ball over 4 times - is evident that the sky is falling. Will need more data.

But the more I look at it, the more important this game is going to be this week against Elon. I don’t think the catamounts will be able to recover if they start 1-3, and i don’t like them to beat Montana.

[kdinva]

Congrats to Wofford on the win. Nice pick up for the conference as the two purple teams laid eggs yesterday.

Wofford named "Stats Perform" Team of the week.

https://theanalyst.com/na/2024/09/stats-perform-fcs-national-awards-player-team-of-the-week-2

[caribbeanhen]

Without Kade Bell at Jacksonville, Kerwin Bell’s winning % was a respectable .630.
With Kade Bell in the program, the Dolphins winning % jumped to .673.

NOTE: Neither of the above metrics factor out the 30 PFL wins that Jacksonville had to vacate because of cheating by violating PFL rules while Kerwin Bell was the Head Coach there.

Kade was on the Staff @ Valdosta State all 3 years of Kerwin Bell’s Head Coaching tenure there. They enjoyed a .794 winning percentage at that stop.

They both were on Staff at South Florida in 2019, but only won at a .333 clip that season…and Kerwin Bell was not the Head Coach, so we don’t include this record in the Overall tabulation below.

Reunited (hey, hey) at WCU in 2021, the pair had a .515 winning pace until 2024 arrived and Kerwin Bell is, so far, batting .000 without Kade on Staff.

So…as a pair, they have a Career Winning Percentage of .664.

Without Kade in his program, Kerwin Bell’s Head Coaching Winning Percentage dips to .604.

- Is that 60 percentage point dip without Kade a significant metric? Kerwin Bell was a college Head Coach for 4 years before Kade joined him. They were a pair for the next 12 years of Kerwin Bell’s Coaching career and, in 2024, Kerwin’s program is Kade-less again. So the overall sample size is rather large.

- Is WCU’s 0-2 start an indication of the Kade-less effect?

- Is 0 Offensive TD’s against a Team that had allowed almost 40 ppg in their most recent 8 games prior to their trip up to Cullowhee even more indicative of what we will see from a KadelessKat Offense?

saw that

did Papa Bell finally tell Kade

You can go your own way...

[wcugrad95]

As upset as I was with the performance in Cullowhee, I am inclined to think more like ReignOfTerror. Was this an absolute stinker of a game? You bet. Is it hard to win with 4 TOs? No doubt - and WCU actually had FIVE turonovers with a fumble on a nice kickoff return. But do I think WCU has no chance to be any good and that Kerwin Bell doesn't know how to run an offense? Absolutely not. As TheCats pointed out, Kerwin was not acting as the playcaller/OC, but that most likely will change now.

Football fans are a fickle bunch. Last week everybody thought WCU was going to be a top-level FCS team playing well against NC State deep into the game. This week the sky must be falling because we had a truly pathetic performance. We are 2 weeks in, expected to probably be 1-1 and find ourselves at 0-2. Foobs cites that Massey thinks the Paladins will end in a 3-way tie for the SoCon, and IMO there is just as much to worry about at Furman, VMI, Samford, etc.

Western plays 2 really good football teams the next 2 weeks with both games on the road (Elon and Montana). We very well could be 0-4 heading into league play and most people will be hanging up the season (some already are). But if we come out and show that this past weekend was an anomoly and play more like we showed against a P4 team in week 1, I feel like we will be very competitive the rest of the way.

Long-winded answer of saying I think Saturday was not who we are and that Bell can still coach. We have players, but we'll need to see a motivated offensive line more than anything else, make better decisions, and play better pass defense to be any good.

[caribbeanhen]

As upset as I was with the performance in Cullowhee, I am inclined to think more like ReignOfTerror. Was this an absolute stinker of a game? You bet. Is it hard to win with 4 TOs? No doubt - and WCU actually had FIVE turonovers with a fumble on a nice kickoff return. But do I think WCU has no chance to be any good and that Kerwin Bell doesn't know how to run an offense? Absolutely not. As TheCats pointed out, Kerwin was not acting as the playcaller/OC, but that most likely will change now.

Football fans are a fickle bunch. Last week everybody thought WCU was going to be a top-level FCS team playing well against NC State deep into the game. This week the sky must be falling because we had a truly pathetic performance. We are 2 weeks in, expected to probably be 1-1 and find ourselves at 0-2. Foobs cites that Massey thinks the Paladins will end in a 3-way tie for the SoCon, and IMO there is just as much to worry about at Furman, VMI, Samford, etc.

Western plays 2 really good football teams the next 2 weeks with both games on the road (Elon and Montana). We very well could be 0-4 heading into league play and most people will be hanging up the season (some already are). But if we come out and show that this past weekend was an anomoly and play more like we showed against a P4 team in week 1, I feel like we will be very competitive the rest of the way.

Long-winded answer of saying I think Saturday was not who we are and that Bell can still coach. We have players, but we'll need to see a motivated offensive line more than anything else, make better decisions, and play better pass defense to be any good.

Thinking Elon is better than Campbell

but that doesn’t change anything you said

[TribeNomad1]

Thinking Elon is better than Campbell

but that doesn’t change anything you said


Campbell always an enigma, seem to have a lot of athletes, but cannot make it all come together. Will see how the rest of the year goes.

[Reign of Terrier]

Campbell is the case study that recruiting rankings at the FCS level are absolute bull****.

[wcugrad95]

I can tell you that it seemed like every couple of minutes in the game Saturday the announcers were saying this Campbell guy or that Campbell guy started out at an FBS school (many seemed to be in the ACC). Sports frequently are contests of matchups and sometimes momentum is huge. I am not saying Elon isn’t good - very well could run the Cats off the field. But Campbell has a bunch of good athletes, a 6’5” WR who gave Liberty fits, and they got after Cole and made us uncomfortable to say the least. Couple that bad matchup with how momentum just had the Cats basically going in reverse and that is a bad combo.

None of that changes the fact that I don’t think WCU went from being a team I can find all kinds of glowing posts about in week 1 to being a doormat. Again, we could start 0-4 but I still think we have the potential to play with anybody left on our schedule assuming we play with some fire and urgency like we did vs NC State.

Or we could fold up and go 0-12. We’ll just have to see

[Milktruck74]

I still think we have the potential to play with anybody left on our schedule assuming we play with some fire and urgency like we did vs NC State.

Or we could fold up and go 0-12. We’ll just have to see

You just summed up 9 teams in the SoCon...Last year I would have said 6 or 7 teams, but based on the first two weeks, that is the entire league right now.

[SU DOG]

As upset as I was with the performance in Cullowhee, I am inclined to think more like ReignOfTerror. Was this an absolute stinker of a game? You bet. Is it hard to win with 4 TOs? No doubt - and WCU actually had FIVE turonovers with a fumble on a nice kickoff return. But do I think WCU has no chance to be any good and that Kerwin Bell doesn't know how to run an offense? Absolutely not. As TheCats pointed out, Kerwin was not acting as the playcaller/OC, but that most likely will change now.

Football fans are a fickle bunch. Last week everybody thought WCU was going to be a top-level FCS team playing well against NC State deep into the game. This week the sky must be falling because we had a truly pathetic performance. We are 2 weeks in, expected to probably be 1-1 and find ourselves at 0-2. Foobs cites that Massey thinks the Paladins will end in a 3-way tie for the SoCon, and IMO there is just as much to worry about at Furman, VMI, Samford, etc.

Western plays 2 really good football teams the next 2 weeks with both games on the road (Elon and Montana). We very well could be 0-4 heading into league play and most people will be hanging up the season (some already are). But if we come out and show that this past weekend was an anomoly and play more like we showed against a P4 team in week 1, I feel like we will be very competitive the rest of the way.

Long-winded answer of saying I think Saturday was not who we are and that Bell can still coach. We have players, but we'll need to see a motivated offensive line more than anything else, make better decisions, and play better pass defense to be any good.

I like this post as it is well stated and echoes my sentiment about my team Samford. We were not ready for a game that first week. The team that I saw Saturday vs Florida didn't even resemble that one. No, we didn't threaten the Gators but we were not embarrassed IMO. First quarter with no score we held Florida on a 4th and 1 took over and began a nice drive and a long play that that ended on the Florida 18, but was called back. Samford was hit with a penalty that took our drive from the 18 yard line to near midfield. Even the announcers commented on that being a very ticky-tacky call. I won't go into any more play details but with 7:40 to go in the 3rd quarter the game score was 21-7.

Florida is not a top SEC Team, but they do have a roster full of 4**** and 5**** players, many of whom will be playing on Sundays. They dwarfed us with their size and we are not a small FCS Team. Their OL averaged 6-5, 322 and their defensive NT went 6-5, 449(not a typo) pounds. We couldn't match their speed of course, and they obviously wore us down late.

We should know more this weekend as the opponent is a pretty good SWAC Team in Alabama State. Any polls show the Hornets above Samford, and you better believe they will be pumped but I'm picking the Bulldogs.