Surprise team(s) to earn a top 8 seed in the playoffs - 2024 edition

[Chalupa Batman]

Which team(s) not ranked in the AGS preseason top 25 (https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?361429-AGS-Poll-Results-2024-PRESEASON-POLL) do you think has the best chance to earn a top 8 seed in this years playoffs? Since the current 24 team playoff format began in 2013, in 9 of the 10 fall seasons at least one team not ranked in the AGS preseason top 25 poll has earned a top 8 seed in the playoffs. Even though 16 teams will be seeded this year, I'm only asking which team (or teams, you can select more than one option) you think will gain a top 8 seed (as they are the ones receiving a first round bye).



For a complete list of teams from 2013-2022 that went from unranked in the preseason to top 8 seed in the postseason, see the thread from last year:

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?337082-Which-team(s)-not-in-the-AGS-preseason-top-25-will-be-seeded-in-this-years-playoffs

In 2023, 3 more teams joined the unranked-to-seeded club: South Dakota (3 seed), Albany (5 seed) and Villanova (8 seed). Amazingly, none of these three teams were even in the top 40 of last years preseason poll so each of them truly came from out of nowhere.

[Chalupa Batman]

Bump

[JacksFan40]

I think Mercer has the best shot of this group, but don’t feel strongly about any of them.

Holy Cross went 11-0 in 2022 with a win over an eventual bowl-eligible G5 and only got the 8 seed, I don’t think they have very good odds at getting a seed. UNI could but they’ll always find a way to end up around 7-4. I don’t know enough about Austin Peay and EIU. UNH would be my 2nd place team on this list.

[crusader11]

Fordham could be an interesting one.

Went 6-5 last season, but did have an FBS win over Buffalo. They always have talent, especially on offense, but underperform. I don't think Joe Conlin is all that great of a coach. That said, they bring back a good QB in CJ Montes. Plus, their OOC isn't terribly challenging, but does present opportunities for nice wins (Bowling Green, CCSU, Stony Brook, Dartmouth, Monmouth, Merrimack). If they're able to go 10-2 or 11-1, could be seed-worthy.

Rhode Island is really interesting this year to me. They bring in Hunter Helms (former Clemson back up QB...he actually committed to Holy Cross at one point) to an already good team. They were a better team than there 6-5 record indicated last year, IMO. Should have beaten Georgia St (went to a bowl) last year, and had near misses against Towson and Richmond -- win one of those games and they're maybe a playoff team.

[POD Knows]

I had Mercer in my top 25 so I excluded them, maybe Holy Cross, they probably have an easy schedule and a one loss season and they could sneak in. Really depends on how the top team performed. If they all beat up on each other a 2 or 3 loss MVFC or BSC team could drop out of the top 8

[crusader11]

I had Mercer in my top 25 so I excluded them, maybe Holy Cross, they probably have an easy schedule and a one loss season and they could sneak in. Really depends on how the top team performed. If they all beat up on each other a 2 or 3 loss MVFC or BSC team could drop out of the top 8

Decently challenging OOC.

FBS (Syracuse)

Top two Ivy's (Harvard and Yale)

Two top tier CAAs (UNH, URI)

Bryant...who isn't a slouch.

We'll learn a lot after the first two weeks of the season (at URI, vs. UNH).

[caribbeanhen]

Decently challenging OOC.

FBS (Syracuse)

Top two Ivy's (Harvard and Yale)

Two top tier CAAs (UNH, URI)

Bryant...who isn't a slouch.

We'll learn a lot after the first two weeks of the season (at URI, vs. UNH).

Why isn’t Bryant a slouch?

They lost their QB to Washington State

they do have a transfer QB coming in from Coastal Carolina

not disagreeing with you just asking

[crusader11]

Why isn’t Bryant a slouch?

They lost their QB to Washington State

they do have a transfer QB coming in from Coastal Carolina

not disagreeing with you just asking

6-5 a season ago (4-2 in BS/OVC)...two of those losses came to Gardner-Webb and and Eastern Illinois by a combined two points (both in OT). Had they beaten GW, they'd have been a playoff team.

Jarrett Guest (the Coastal transfer) is going to be a good QB for them. Also brought in a bunch of other transfers (several from FBS schools).

Don't expect this to be an easy game at all. Maybe that says more about HC than Bryant.

[Outsider1]

I don't think the UAC will offer up AP as it's alternative over UCA or Tarleton. I am actually thinking that either SUU or ACU could have a chance this year. Both are running a bit below the radar, which is fine. AP reloaded fairly well, but it is still a fresh reload. I think both the Big Sky and MVFC could also up different alternatives.

[POD Knows]

Decently challenging OOC.

FBS (Syracuse)

Top two Ivy's (Harvard and Yale)

Two top tier CAAs (UNH, URI)

Bryant...who isn't a slouch.

We'll learn a lot after the first two weeks of the season (at URI, vs. UNH).
Doesn’t look that challenging and I guess if they can’t win most of those game then they aren’t a top 8 seed.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Doesn’t look that challenging and I guess if they can’t win most of those game then they aren’t a top 8 seed.


Bryant 2023 results sorted by Massey rank



Date

Opponent
Rnk(Rec)
Result
PF
PA



Sat 09-30
at
Rhode Island (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6516)
40(6-5)
L (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287760)
26
49



Sat 11-04

Gardner Webb (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2825)
46(7-5)
L (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288311)OT
44
45



Sat 10-21
at
E Illinois (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2341)
48(8-3)
L (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288112)OT
24
25



Sat 09-23
at
Princeton (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6339)
50(5-5)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287647)OT
16
13



Sat 11-18

SE Missouri St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/7300)
51(4-7)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288566)
45
21



Sat 09-16

Brown (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/933)
59(5-5)
L (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287516)
25
29



Sat 10-28
at
Charleston So (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1457)
81(4-7)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288237)
47
24



Sat 10-14

Robert Morris (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6588)
97(4-7)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287967)
43
24



Sat 11-11
at
Lindenwood (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/4116)
99(3-7)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938288479)
38
3



Sat 09-09

LIU Post (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/2008)
100(4-7)
W (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287396)
21
10



Sat 09-02
at
UNLV (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5323)
(9-5)
L (https://masseyratings.com/game.php?gid=938287253)
14
44

[Puddin Tane]

Uiw. They got a point to prove after getting hosed last year. They are gonna run up scores whenever possible

[crusader11]

Doesn’t look that challenging and I guess if they can’t win most of those game then they aren’t a top 8 seed.

Average Sagarin rating of these six teams is 152.

That's pretty good.

What's an example of a really challenging OOC slate this season?

[POD Knows]

Uiw. They got a point to prove after getting hosed last year. They are gonna run up scores whenever possibleThey were ranked 15 in the preseason poll, the question was which team outside the AGS 25 have a shot at an 8 or higher seed.

[POD Knows]

Average Sagarin rating of these six teams is 152.

That's pretty good.

What's an example of a really challenging OOC slate this season?I don't know, UNI has 2 FBS games, UND plays Iowa State and Montana, SDSU plays Oklahoma State, Incarnate Word and SELA, Partland States OOC is super tough. Hell, NDSU plays Colorado, Tenn State (creampuff), ETSU and Towson, no idea on the last two, I think Montana State has a tough OOC.

[Puddin Tane]

i was thinking Lamars was tuff with Tx St, Weber and cent arkie…until i looked at Sela’s.. tulane, so miss, eastern wash, s dakota state and tarelton. Dayum

[crusader11]

SELA always seems to have a BRUTAL OOC.

Last year it was Miss St, South Alabama, EWU, and Tarleton.

In 2022, it was Louisiana Lafayette, FAU, CCSU, Murray St, Jax St.

[MSUBobcat]

I don't know, UNI has 2 FBS games, UND plays Iowa State and Montana, SDSU plays Oklahoma State, Incarnate Word and SELA, Partland States OOC is super tough. Hell, NDSU plays Colorado, Tenn State (creampuff), ETSU and Towson, no idea on the last two, I think Montana State has a tough OOC.

Portland State's entire schedule is ridiculous. OOC is FBS Wazzou, #6 USD Yotes, FBS ORV Boise St, and on the road vs #9 Chatty. In BSC play, they get @ T-25 Weber, #17 UC-Davis, #4 MSU, @ #11 Sac St., #7 Idaho, and @ #2 UM. Their OOC is 2 FBS (one of which received top-25 votes) and a home and road game against top 10 FCS teams. Then the Vikings got all 6 of Big Sky's ranked teams. Out of 12 games, only 2 are not FBS or ranked FCS. (all rankings from the AGS preseason poll, because... it's the best)

Montana State's OOC is, unfortunately, pretty soft: an FBS game that we are favored in, @ Utah Tech that went 2-9 last year, home vs Maine (2-9 also) and 1st-year transitioning Mercyhurst after SFA backed out due to changing conference affiliations. We do get 4 of the 5 other ranked BSC teams, skipping only T-25 BBQ.

[SFA 93]

Eastern Washington may surprise.

[JacksFan40]

Uiw. They got a point to prove after getting hosed last year. They are gonna run up scores whenever possible
They certainly get an opportunity to prove themselves on September 7th, looking forward to that one very much.

[POD Knows]

Portland State's entire schedule is ridiculous. OOC is FBS Wazzou, #6 USD Yotes, FBS ORV Boise St, and on the road vs #9 Chatty. In BSC play, they get @ T-25 Weber, #17 UC-Davis, #4 MSU, @ #11 Sac St., #7 Idaho, and @ #2 UM. Their OOC is 2 FBS (one of which received top-25 votes) and a home and road game against top 10 FCS teams. Then the Vikings got all 6 of Big Sky's ranked teams. Out of 12 games, only 2 are not FBS or ranked FCS. (all rankings from the AGS preseason poll, because... it's the best)

Montana State's OOC is, unfortunately, pretty soft: an FBS game that we are favored in, @ Utah Tech that went 2-9 last year, home vs Maine (2-9 also) and 1st-year transitioning Mercyhurst after SFA backed out due to changing conference affiliations. We do get 4 of the 5 other ranked BSC teams, skipping only T-25 BBQ.
Yea. Good catch on the Montana State deal. I checked theirs after I made the post and was going to edit it and forgot. The PSU schedule is brutal. Has to be the toughest schedule on paper right now.

[MSUBobcat]

Eastern Washington may surprise.

EWU was not as bad as their record indicated last year. Gave a pretty good Fresno State all it could handle in a 2OT loss. Beat bubblicious UC Davis on the road. Only 3 losses by more than 1 score (MSU by 43, Portland State by 12 and NDSU by 25, all on the road). I posted in the Big Sky Power rankings thread that they bring back a lot from last year. They return most of the offensive yards per game, 80% of the OL snaps, and 68% of the tackles from last year (per Keeper's spreadsheet). Keeper ranked their returning stats as the 14th best in the FCS. The problem is the defense allowed a staggering 36ppg. I expect the offense will be potent as always, so if the D can makes significant strides, they'll make some noise. The start of their schedule is pretty favorable for building momentum/confidence (Monmouth, Drake, @ SELA, and a winnable FBS in Nevada). Unfortunately for the Eags, after that stretch it gets to the meat of the schedule, with 5 straight ranked BSC teams.

[MSUBobcat]

Yea. Good catch on the Montana State deal. I checked theirs after I made the post and was going to edit it and forgot. The PSU schedule is brutal. Has to be the toughest schedule on paper right now.

If someone has a harder schedule than PSU, please let the class know about it. They could legitimately be a decent team and possibly the 6th/7th best in the BSC, yet finish with a dismal 2-10/3-9 record. On paper, even the FCS ORV would be underdogs in 10 of PSU's games.

[MR. CHICKEN]

If someone has a harder schedule than PSU, please let the class know about it. They could legitimately be a decent team and possibly the 6th/7th best in the BSC, yet finish with a dismal 2-10/3-9 record. On paper, even the FCS ORV would be underdogs in 10 of PSU's games.

NOT AS TOUGH AS VIKIN'S......BUT N. IOWA;

@ ST. THOMAS
@ NEBRASKA
@ HAWAII
S. DAKOTA ST
@ S. DAKOTA
@ N DAKOTA
@ N. DAKOTA ST
ILLINOIS ST
@ YOUNGSTOWN ST

.......UH.....ROADIE @ TOMMIES.....2 FBS's......6 CURRENTLAH RANKED AGS TOP 25's......&........ 4 UH THOSE 6 ON ROAD......😬......AWK!

[MSUBobcat]

I voted for Eastern Illinois. 8-3 last year. Bringing back 91% of the offense's ypg, 73% of the OL snaps and 67% of the defense's tackles. The OOC is challenging, with 2 FBS and Ill State on the slate, but a respectable showing in the FBS and pulling a W over the Redbirds opens the door to a top-8 seed, potentially. G-W returns almost nothing from the PY. UT-Martin will probably be formidable, especially with EIU on the road for it. If they can run the table in-conference, and finish 10-2 with only FBS losses, that's gotta be a top-8 seed.

[Redbird 4th & short]

EWU was not as bad as their record indicated last year. Gave a pretty good Fresno State all it could handle in a 2OT loss. Beat bubblicious UC Davis on the road. Only 3 losses by more than 1 score (MSU by 43, Portland State by 12 and NDSU by 25, all on the road). I posted in the Big Sky Power rankings thread that they bring back a lot from last year. They return most of the offensive yards per game, 80% of the OL snaps, and 68% of the tackles from last year (per Keeper's spreadsheet). Keeper ranked their returning stats as the 14th best in the FCS. The problem is the defense allowed a staggering 36ppg. I expect the offense will be potent as always, so if the D can makes significant strides, they'll make some noise. The start of their schedule is pretty favorable for building momentum/confidence (Monmouth, Drake, @ SELA, and a winnable FBS in Nevada). Unfortunately for the Eags, after that stretch it gets to the meat of the schedule, with 5 straight ranked BSC teams.

Re EWUs prospects ... Keeper has them ranked #3 in Big Sky and #13 in FCS in returning starts/stats.

Plus they picked up these FBS transfers ... sounds like they will be an improved/under-rated team this fall.



Dishawn Misa (LB)
Boise State
Eastern Washington


Landon Ogles (K/P)
Fresno State
Eastern Washington


Noah Stewart (OL)
Michigan
Eastern Washington


Caleb Manson (DL)
Nevada
Eastern Washington


Avery Ellis (DB)
Utah State
Eastern Washington


McKel Broussard (DB)
UTEP
Eastern Washington


Anthony James (DL)
Washington
Eastern Washington


Cole Pruett (WR)
Washington State
Eastern Washington

[JacksFan40]

NOT AS TOUGH AS VIKIN'S......BUT N. IOWA;

@ ST. THOMAS
@ NEBRASKA
@ HAWAII
S. DAKOTA ST
@ S. DAKOTA
@ N DAKOTA
@ N. DAKOTA ST
ILLINOIS ST
@ YOUNGSTOWN ST

.......UH.....ROADIE @ TOMMIES.....2 FBS's......6 CURRENTLAH RANKED AGS TOP 25's......&........ 4 UH THOSE 6 ON ROAD............AWK!
Not a single week they can take it easy. Even the Tommies are as tough as it gets for a PFL team.

[MSUBobcat]

Not a single week they can take it easy. Even the Tommies are as tough as it gets for a PFL team.

Not to be too disparaging to the Tommies, even being on the road (and why???) UNI should handle St. Thomas fairly easily, especially in regards to a conversation about who may be a dark horse for a top-8 seed. NDSU (not even a top-8 last year but maybe should have been) boat-raced Drake, who thumped the Tommies. They also open with Valpo, which is a bad PFL team. In conference they also get cellar-dwellar ISU-b at home. In the sense that "any given Saturday" and no one can take it easy ANY week, sure. But those are 3 games that I think most people are penciling in as a W.

[JacksFan40]

Not to be too disparaging to the Tommies, even being on the road (and why???) UNI should handle St. Thomas fairly easily, especially in regards to a conversation about who may be a dark horse for a top-8 seed. NDSU (not even a top-8 last year but maybe should have been) boat-raced Drake, who thumped the Tommies. They also open with Valpo, which is a bad PFL team. In conference they also get cellar-dwellar ISU-b at home. In the sense that "any given Saturday" and no one can take it easy ANY week, sure. But those are 3 games that I think most people are penciling in as a W.
They should beat them handily but never say never. In 2018 Drake almost knocked off Top 25 Iowa State at the end of the season in Ames. At the very least, St. Thomas has consistently been one of the best teams in the PFL since moving up from D3, it’ll certainly be more of a test than if they were playing Dayton or Morehead. It also certainly doesn’t help if they get caught looking ahead to who they play the next week.

Even if you don’t count St. Thomas, UNI has 8 games where they’ll have their hands full.

[crusader11]

Why isn’t Bryant a slouch?

They lost their QB to Washington State

they do have a transfer QB coming in from Coastal Carolina

not disagreeing with you just asking

Alright hen, based on the score last night, maybe I'm thinking Bryant is a bit better than they are?

Did you see anything out of them that would lead you to believe they're a .500 club this year?

How was their QB?

[MSUBobcat]

They should beat them handily but never say never. In 2018 Drake almost knocked off Top 25 Iowa State at the end of the season in Ames. At the very least, St. Thomas has consistently been one of the best teams in the PFL since moving up from D3, it’ll certainly be more of a test than if they were playing Dayton or Morehead. It also certainly doesn’t help if they get caught looking ahead to who they play the next week.

Even if you don’t count St. Thomas, UNI has 8 games where they’ll have their hands full.

Looks like St. Thomas has taken a big step back, losing to a DII team that was 3-8 last year. xsmhx

[wapiti]

EWU was not as bad as their record indicated last year. Gave a pretty good Fresno State all it could handle in a 2OT loss. Beat bubblicious UC Davis on the road. Only 3 losses by more than 1 score (MSU by 43, Portland State by 12 and NDSU by 25, all on the road). I posted in the Big Sky Power rankings thread that they bring back a lot from last year. They return most of the offensive yards per game, 80% of the OL snaps, and 68% of the tackles from last year (per Keeper's spreadsheet). Keeper ranked their returning stats as the 14th best in the FCS. The problem is the defense allowed a staggering 36ppg. I expect the offense will be potent as always, so if the D can makes significant strides, they'll make some noise. The start of their schedule is pretty favorable for building momentum/confidence (Monmouth, Drake, @ SELA, and a winnable FBS in Nevada). Unfortunately for the Eags, after that stretch it gets to the meat of the schedule, with 5 straight ranked BSC teams.

After watching the EWU game yesterday, They do have a chance of being a top 8 seed. EWU schedule is no cupcake of a schedule either. Earn a few W's on the tough games and EWU could be in the mix.

@ SELA - EWU should get the W on this road trip
@ FBS Nevada
UM
@ Sac
UC Davis
@ Idaho
MSU
@ NAU (Potential to be a tough game)

[MSUBobcat]

After watching the EWU game yesterday, They do have a chance of being a top 8 seed. EWU schedule is no cupcake of a schedule either. Earn a few W's on the tough games and EWU could be in the mix.

@ SELA - EWU should get the W on this road trip
@ FBS Nevada
UM
@ Sac
UC Davis
@ Idaho
MSU
@ NAU (Potential to be a tough game)

I thought Nevada was a fairly winnable game, but Choate seems to have improved them over last year. They gave SMU (11-3 and AAC champs last year) all they could handle, losing on a TD drive that started with 3:30 left to play. My original thought was if the Eags managed to start 4-0, with a fairly soft slate of @NoCO, vs ISU-o and @NAU (never an EASY game, but winnable) to end the year (always better to end on a winning streak), they had 7 games that they might expect to win, so if they could win vs 2 of the 5 ranked Big Sky teams(@Idaho and vs Davis were my most likely), being 9-3 with and FBS W and loses to potentially highly-seeded UM and MSU, and possibly Sac St, they may eke into a #8 seed if the MVFC cannibalized itself a bit. After a week, Nevada doesn't seem as likely, which would severely damage their hopes of a top 8. They would have to steal another W from the 5 ranked BSC teams and with Monmouth putting up 27 on that abomination of a home field, I just don't see them beating UM and MSU, nor beating Sac St on the road. But... it's only Week 1, so there's bound to be some rust to knock off. EWU's D may gel as the season progresses.