Nate Robertson gets big contract

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http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/SPORTS02/80116034


The Tigers have signed Nate Robertson to a three-year deal worth $21.25 million, a person with knowledge of the negotiations told the Free Press this morning.

Robertson went 9-13 with a 4.76 ERA in 30 starts for Detroit this year

He is (42-55, 4.60) for his career.

[Cleets]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/SPORTS02/80116034



He is (42-55, 4.60) for his career.

That's almost as bad as the Red Sox JD Drew contract..!!! xlolx
although it looks like they've got more outs and back-doors in that contract than a down town whore house...

xwhistlex

[Gil Dobie]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/SPORTS02/80116034



He is (42-55, 4.60) for his career.

Gotta spend money to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees. xoopsx

[FCS Preview]

Gotta spend money to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees. xoopsx

gotta spend wisely...

[AshevilleApp2]

Gotta spend money to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees. xoopsx


That's a lot of money, but he is a left hand starter who throws a lot of innings. I'm just glad to see the beloved Tigers willing to spend the money needed to compete with Cleveland, Minnesota and those teams in the AL East.

[Gil Dobie]

gotta spend wisely...

Wisely is relative to the person spending the money. The Twins get bashed for having it and not spending it. Tigers have it and spend it. Lefties have an inflated value compared to righties. xeyebrowx

[FCS Preview]

Wisely is relative to the person spending the money. The Twins get bashed for having it and not spending it. Tigers have it and spend it. Lefties have an inflated value compared to righties. xeyebrowx

$7M/yr for a pitcher with one winning season and a .433 winning pct....

[AshevilleApp2]

$7M/yr for a pitcher with one winning season and a .433 winning pct....

Again, if you want to compete you have to pony up. Athletes making ridiculous money is nothing new. What it gives the Tigers is a fifth starter who averages nearly 200 innings a year. And with the bullpen being thin, it's important for the starters to log as many innings as possible.

[Cleets]

Gotta spend money to compete with the Red Sox and Yankees. xoopsx

Please read Money Ball... (I'm begging you)

[AZGrizFan]

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080116/SPORTS02/80116034



He is (42-55, 4.60) for his career.

Hate to tell ya, but $7 mil a year isn't a BIG contract for a left handed innings eater. That's about average....and he's about an average pitcher... xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex

Yes, we're all in the wrong business... xmadx xmadx xmadx

[AshevilleApp2]

Hate to tell ya, but $7 mil a year isn't a BIG contract for a left handed innings eater. That's about average....and he's about an average pitcher... xwhistlex xwhistlex xwhistlex

Yes, we're all in the wrong business... xmadx xmadx xmadx

Absolutely. And since the Tigers should score a bunch or runs this year, a #5 starter with a career ERA of less than 5.00 should do okay (or average!)

[UNHWildCats]

Ted Lily

http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/lillyte01.shtml

4 years/$40M (2007-10)



Gil Meche

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/mechegi01.shtml

5 years/$55M (2007-11)




AJ Burnett

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burnea.01.shtml

5 years/$55M (2006-10)




Carl Pavano

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pavanca01.shtml

4 years/$39.95M (2005-08), plus $13M 2009 club option




Just to name a few... All had mediocre career records and ERA at best. Though Pavano did have a great year before signing his deal. The Tigers actually got a bargain here... and with the offense in 2008 even with a 4.00 era a pitcher could win 18 games for them.

[FCS Preview]

Lilly's was ridiculous too...for a .500 career pitcher.
Meche never had a losing season before signing with KC
Burnett's was poor, but he had an ERA under 3.76
Pavano's was pure stupidity, but was coming off an 18-win season

[AZGrizFan]

Lilly's was ridiculous too...for a .500 career pitcher.
Meche never had a losing season before signing with KC
Burnett's was poor, but he had an ERA under 3.76
Pavano's was pure stupidity, but was coming off an 18-win season


And yet, Lilly was the best pitcher in the Cubs rotation last year. xlolx xlolx

[FCS Preview]

And yet, Lilly was the best pitcher in the Cubs rotation last year. xlolx xlolx

Best pitcher on a team that hasn't won a title in 100 years, and hasn't been to the WS since 1945.

Talk about damning with feint praise. xlolx

[UNHWildCats]

And yet, Lilly was the best pitcher in the Cubs rotation last year. xlolx xlolx
With how well Lily and Meche (aside from the record) pitched last year more teams will make gambles like this.

[Cleets]

The Money Ball formula for a starting pitcher is simple...

1) Quality Starts
2) Wins

that's what you pay for...

So if Mr. Robertson has 34 starts: wins 10 games and has 20 Quality Starts... The team is paying about 2X (twice) what the Red Sox are paying for Josh Beckett per win...

If you can pay about $600K per win for a starter you're doing okay... if you're paying more than that...then you'll need to evaluate his Quality Starts into the per win dollars...

If Mr. Robinson wins 7 games it's a bad deal for the team... if he wins about 10 the team is getting an average deal... if he wins more than 11 games the team is getting a total deal...

it's all about dollars = per = win + Quality Starts...

Example: Josh Beckett is being paid about $6.6 Million (2007) for 20 wins, that's a great deal for the Red Sox (or any team anywhere) plus he had 25 Quality Starts in 30 Starts...

Robersons deal could work out to be fine... but he's getting paid more than Josh Beckett..


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[AshevilleApp2]

The Money Ball formula for a starting pitcher is simple...

1) Quality Starts
2) Wins

that's what you pay for...

So if Mr. Robertson has 34 starts: wins 10 games and has 20 Quality Starts... The team is paying about 2X (twice) what the Red Sox are paying for Josh Beckett per win...

If you can pay about $600K per win for a starter you're doing okay... if you're paying more than that...then you'll need to evaluate his Quality Starts into the per win dollars...



If Mr. Robinson wins 7 games it's a bad deal for the team... if he wins about 10 the team is getting an average deal... if he wins more than 11 games the team is getting a total deal...

it's all about dollars = per = win + Quality Starts...

Example: Josh Beckett is being paid about $6.6 Million (2007) for 20 wins, that's a great deal for the Red Sox (or any team anywhere) plus he had 25 Quality Starts in 30 Starts...

Robersons deal could work out to be fine... but he's getting paid more than Josh Beckett..


-

How does Money Ball quantify Quality Starts?

[Gil Dobie]

How does Money Ball quantify Quality Starts?

Beckett is also underpaid at the moment. xoopsx

[AshevilleApp2]

Beckett is also underpaid at the moment. xoopsx

Agreed, he's a great relatively young pitcher.

[Cleets]

How does Money Ball quantify Quality Starts?

Each team needs to define "quality starts"
the red sox use a more complicated formula than most teams do.. but each GM should have a formula close to the below...

1) 6 1/3 innings + competitive game = Quality Start
2) 7 complete innings or 110 pitches = Quality Start
3) After the start of the 6th + or - 2 run differential at entrance of Bull Pen

it's all variable depending on the franchise and their GM... but keep in mind over 25 teams do not subscribe to the money ball theory... so how they sign players and sign pitchers and the pay structure they use is unknown...

Money Ball Basic creed:
1) Don't over pay for speed (it's too expensive with limited payoff)
2) On base percentage is king (Plus Avg. with Runners on)
3) Closers are built to be traded (see A's formula since 2001)
4) Starters are about wins = Q.S. (Only.!!)
5) Starting pitchers get traded after 35 yrs or reduced Salary
6) No contracts started before 35 yrs carry into 35th year (example: 32 yr old won't get 4 year deal)

theres a ton more............

Who uses it
The A's (created the formulas for Money ball) and are the best at it
The Blue Jays (as of last year) this will get interesting
The Red Sox (in the Epstien era) on pitching
The The White Sox use it but also use traditional methods too
The Dodgers are implementing it this year
and a few others...

[AshevilleApp2]

Each team needs to define "quality starts"
the red sox use a more complicated formula than most teams do.. but each GM should have a formula close to the below...

1) 6 1/3 innings + competitive game = Quality Start
2) 7 complete innings or 110 pitches = Quality Start
3) After the start of the 6th + or - 2 run differential at entrance of Bull Pen

it's all variable depending on the franchise and their GM... but keep in mind over 25 teams do not subscribe to the money ball theory... so how they sign players and sign pitchers and the pay structure they use is unknown...

Money Ball Basic creed:
1) Don't over pay for speed (it's too expensive with limited payoff)
2) On base percentage is king (Plus Avg. with Runners on)
3) Closers are built to be traded (see A's formula since 2001)
4) Starters are about wins = Q.S. (Only.!!)
5) Starting pitchers get traded after 35 yrs or reduced Salary
6) No contracts started before 35 yrs carry into 35th year (example: 32 yr old won't get 4 year deal)

theres a ton more............

Who uses it
The A's (created the formulas for Money ball) and are the best at it
The Blue Jays (as of last year) this will get interesting
The Red Sox (in the Epstien era) on pitching
The The White Sox use it but also use traditional methods too
The Dodgers are implementing it this year
and a few others...

Thanks for the clarification. Certainly paying off for the Red Sox re pitching.

[spelunker64]

I had to open this to see who Nate Robertson is...