SoCon vs. CAA - "A Statistical Analysis"

[Blueandwhitefightfight]

There is another thread that used some random arbitrary numbers to form a statistic set trying to say that the CAA was better than the SoCon. I knew that wasn't true so I did "a statistical analysis" of my own. But I actually paid attention during Intro to Statistics and was able come up with a couple numbers that actually make sense, aren't abitrary, and are complete.


The other guy contradicted himself by saying "regular season records don't matter" but then awarding points for simply making the playoffs alone. Obviously regular season records matter as they decide who gets your "1 point" for "making the playoffs". So lets take a look at the COMPLETE head to record of the SoCon teams against CAA teams for the past 4 seasons (because some of those players would have still been eligible and playing this past season).

Yep, sure enough - just as I suspected. The SoCon is superior to the CAA. The record:

SoCon - 8 wins
CAA - 3 wins

The SoCon team wins 72% of the time.

Let's take another number.

Total points scored:

SoCon - 317
CAA - 285



The SoCon's speed beats out the CAA. The CAA is good, but not as good as the SoCon.

[BlueHen86]

The only thing that matters is that ASU won the NC. This whole best conference argument is stupid. We might as well argue favorite colors.

Green rules!;)

[Umass74]

Yep, sure enough - just as I suspected. The SoCon is superior to the CAA. The record:

SoCon - 8 wins
CAA - 3 wins

The SoCon team wins 72% of the time.

Let's take another number.


Five of the eight SoCon wins are from Appy in '06 and '07. The Mountaineers beat JMU and UMass in '06 and JMU, Richmond and Delaware in '07.

We know they're good, how did the rest of the league do?

[GreatAppSt]

Five of the eight SoCon wins are from Appy in '06 and '07. The Mountaineers beat JMU and UMass in '06 and JMU, Richmond and Delaware in '07.

We know they're good, how did the rest of the league do?

About as good as JMU UMass Richmond and Delaware did.

[FCS Preview]

There is another thread that used some random arbitrary numbers to form a statistic set trying to say that the CAA was better than the SoCon. I knew that wasn't true so I did "a statistical analysis" of my own. But I actually paid attention during Intro to Statistics and was able come up with a couple numbers that actually make sense, aren't abitrary, and are complete.


The other guy contradicted himself by saying "regular season records don't matter" but then awarding points for simply making the playoffs alone. Obviously regular season records matter as they decide who gets your "1 point" for "making the playoffs". So lets take a look at the COMPLETE head to record of the SoCon teams against CAA teams for the past 4 seasons (because some of those players would have still been eligible and playing this past season).

Yep, sure enough - just as I suspected. The SoCon is superior to the CAA. The record:

SoCon - 8 wins
CAA - 3 wins

The SoCon team wins 72% of the time.

Let's take another number.

Total points scored:

SoCon - 317
CAA - 285



The SoCon's speed beats out the CAA. The CAA is good, but not as good as the SoCon.

And how many were home games for the SoCon?

[mrklean]

CAA is just like the Big Ten..................... SLOW! AZZ HELL!!!

[appstate1998]

why is it before a game and people warn others about coming into the Rock everyone says oh they will be ready the crowd won't be a factor...but then people are always bringing up home field advantage after a loss as an excuse

[FCS Preview]

why is it before a game and people warn others about coming into the Rock everyone says oh they will be ready the crowd won't be a factor...but then people are always bringing up home field advantage after a loss as an excuse

HFA is a legitimate question. If the SoCon is 8-3, but (7-1) at home and (1-2) on the road, then that's a telling statistic.

Now, we know that two of the games were at a neutral site. But what about the rest?

[Jerbearasu]

Five of the eight SoCon wins are from Appy in '06 and '07. The Mountaineers beat JMU and UMass in '06 and JMU, Richmond and Delaware in '07.

We know they're good, how did the rest of the league do?
So you are saying that App has beaten 100% of the CAA teams they've faced in the past 2 years but they haven't beaten all of the SoCon teams. Is that correct? The only losses by App State in the past 3 years have come from the ACC, Big 12, SEC, and the SoCon...

[dungeonjoe]

And how many were home games for the SoCon?
how many times did the CAA/A-10 outbid the SoCon? SO maybe the only stat that counts is the $$$$$.

[FCS Preview]

how many times did the CAA/A-10 outbid the SoCon? SO maybe the only stat that counts is the $$$$$.
These weren't all playoff games, were they?
I know Hofstra beat Furman in the regular season this year.

[Eight Legger]

The best overall league, to me, is the one that sends the most teams to the playoffs every year. Period. Lately that has been the CAA. We're talking about the two best leagues in FCS though, so it's not like the CAA will always have more playoff teams.

[Poly Pigskin]

The best overall league, to me, is the one that sends the most teams to the playoffs every year. Period. Lately that has been the CAA. We're talking about the two best leagues in FCS though, so it's not like the CAA will always have more playoff teams.

That doesn't work because of the different number of teams in every conference. Larger conferences are obviously more likely to have more playoff eligible teams, and therefore more teams in the field.

Why does everyone feel the need to debate this constantly? We talk about our superiority over FBS because we determine a champion on the field, and then we resort to the same numbers games to try to figure out this kind of stuff. It all boils down to opinion, and you can find numbers to back up any opinion. But I guess it is the offseason, so hey, go nuts!! xthumbsupx

[ASU]

Merry Christmas and goodwill to the CAA from an avid SoCon supporter.
Remember, we are all in this world together. Let's not hate each other just trying to debate which conference is superior to the other. Both are quality programs.....if there is any "enemy" , it is the BCS conferences that arbitrarily had set up a system to make things to their advantage. They want to control TV, money, advertising, recruiting, and anything to make themselves look better. Their smug attitudes are something that we have all run into. Let's all work together to try to get the NCAA to level out the playing field with their ongoing study. Maybe just have one level with so many scholarships.....something reasonable.

[FCS Preview]

Let's all work together to try to get the NCAA to level out the playing field with their ongoing study. Maybe just have one level with so many scholarships.....something reasonable.

And what would your solution be for a school that is currently FCS but offers 63, 30, or 0 scholarships? Force them up to 85? What would 85 FB scholarships do to a school's Title IX complaince if they currently offer 0 or 30?

[hapapp]

Why does everyone feel the need to debate this constantly? We talk about our superiority over FBS because we determine a champion on the field, and then we resort to the same numbers games to try to figure out this kind of stuff. It all boils down to opinion, and you can find numbers to back up any opinion. But I guess it is the offseason, so hey, go nuts!! xthumbsupx

Agreed. I really don't understand this need to prove one conference superior to another. There are no really objective measures. So, it is a purely subjective, in the "eye of the beholder" argument. I understand it is interesting for message board banter, but I don't think folks should get too worked up over it. It doesn't hurt my ego if a CAA supporter thinks his conference is the best.

[hapapp]

And what would your solution be for a school that is currently FCS but offers 63, 30, or 0 scholarships? Force them up to 85? What would 85 FB scholarships do to a school's Title IX complaince if they currently offer 0 or 30?


I think there are some folks that hope the NCAA would find some middle ground for those "upper level" FCS schools and the "lower end" FBS schools. I think a legitimate concern is the varying degrees of scholarships offered at the FCS level.

[The Moody1]

And what would your solution be for a school that is currently FCS but offers 63, 30, or 0 scholarships? Force them up to 85? What would 85 FB scholarships do to a school's Title IX complaince if they currently offer 0 or 30?

Hop on board or drop to D-II. Why should a school that offers 0 scholarships ever be considered to be D-I in football? Th NCAA needs to change the requirement that in order to be D-I in other sports you have to be D-I in Football.

[GreatAppSt]

And what would your solution be for a school that is currently FCS but offers 63, 30, or 0 scholarships? Force them up to 85? What would 85 FB scholarships do to a school's Title IX complaince if they currently offer 0 or 30?

Is this what you are suggesting?

[FCS Preview]

Is this what you are suggesting?

Is what, what I am suggesting? I asked a question; I didn't make any suggestions.

[HaveFunKc]

Hop on board or drop to D-II. Why should a school that offers 0 scholarships ever be considered to be D-I in football? Th NCAA needs to change the requirement that in order to be D-I in other sports you have to be D-I in Football.

Welcome to the #1 issue for the NCAA v/s Div I-A/Major schools... $$$$!!! Big time money in Div I basketball (March Madness) then add the Bowl games. NCAA pulled of the coup of the century when they created the basketball tournament (and pretty much killed the NIT). Re-doing Div I football with all the $ involved, 'major' schools aren't going to let that go as easily - way too much $ at stake for them (just look at the payout of the major bowls for example)...

Top that off with, dropping schools to Div II becomes more than a competition question, but in essense a political/economic 'sentence of death' then because those schools would loose out on $ they count for survival to meet Title IX...

Whatever happened to just having sports in college for competition and fun??? Oh yea, major college became the minor leagues for professional sports - sorry I forgot... xrolleyesx

[Col Hogan]

I think there are some folks that hope the NCAA would find some middle ground for those "upper level" FCS schools and the "lower end" FBS schools. I think a legitimate concern is the varying degrees of scholarships offered at the FCS level.


Hop on board or drop to D-II. Why should a school that offers 0 scholarships ever be considered to be D-I in football? Th NCAA needs to change the requirement that in order to be D-I in other sports you have to be D-I in Football.

History, folks...History...

I saved the following history lesson in my email...did not record who wrote it...I did not, so I will not take credit for it...but those who argue this very subject need to know the history of how we got here...


Until 1978 football was like every other sport in the NCAA. It was organized into three divisions.

Division III for schools not wishing to award athletic aid.
Division II for schools wishing to award aid but at a low cost level and offering few sports.
Division I for schools with broad based athletic programs (read lots of sports) willing to offer a lot of scholies.

The NCAA had a contract with ABC (and later others) for football (it was THE cash cow for the NCAA). Schools were limited in number of national appearances (5 in two years) and every conference was guaranteed at least one regional appearance every two years. Revenue went into two pools. Pool one was to the televised schools per appearance. Pool two was divided among all Division I schools.

In 1978 Division I was divided into I-A and I-AA. To be I-A you had to either offer a broad based program (ie. 12 sports) or meet minimum attendance requirements. The attendance requirement was there to "save" well supported football programs at schools that didn't have 12 sports.

I-AA was actually a nice compromise for the time. There were over 180 schools playing Division I football at the time. There were only 13 bowl games at the time. Unless you were a member of the Big 8 (Orange), Big 10(Rose), Pac-10(Rose), SWC(Cotton), SEC(Sugar), WAC(Fiesta, then in 1978 Holiday), or Southland (Independence) conferences you were not guaranteed access to a bowl. Division I leagues like the SWAC, MEAC, Big Sky, Ivy, Missouri Valley, PCAA (Big West), MAC, Southern, Ohio Valley, and Yankee (A-10) you were very unlikely to send a team to post-season.

I-AA offered a playoff for those schools. Scholarships were capped at 75 compared to 100 (later 95) for I-A. Many of the Division I leagues already had scholarship caps ranging from 0 in Ivy to 85 in the MAC, MoValley, etc.

Many leagues opted to remain I-A (notably MoValley, Southland, Southern, Yankee, Ivy)


The bigger schools chaffed at sharing the pot of gold (ABC-TV) with over 1. At the end of the 1981 season they eliminated the sport sponsorship element, making it purely attendance based. That knocked I-A down to right at 100. A year later the rest of the MAC got it's house in order (with help from a lawsuit to enjoin enforcement against them) and I-A was at 105 members.

The new I-AA schools were made the following promises.
1) They would have access to television through the ABC contract but would only be paid based on appearances instead of sharing the big check and would be guaranteed a minimum number of regional appearances.
2) They would be able to continue to schedule I-A schools.
3) I-AA would be a division for schools wanting to play high scholarship football.
4) They would have access to a playoff.

Promise #1 was broken in 1983 thanks to the United States Supreme Court striking down the NCAA football television contract. The NCAA was out of the TV business and I-AA was guaranteed one tv appearance, that being the title game and then in most years only because televising the game was made a requirement for bidding on the NCAA basketball tournament.

Promise #2 was when a new rule was adopted for 1989. I-A schools could no longer count a win over a I-AA toward bowl eligibility. From 1981 to 1988 two schools had moved to I-A (not counting the MAC schools that yo-yo'd into I-AA for one year). One was Akron, who had their eyes on MAC membership. The other was La.Tech who made their move partly in response to the proposed legislation. Once the rule was adopted two more schools dashed up, Nevada and Arkansas State, two schools that traditionally relied on playing at least one regional I-A school every year and found those games in danger. After that the dash was on.

Promise #3 was broken when Division III tired of having to recruit against Division I schools like Dayton and Georgetown that played Division I in all sports except football and played Division III football. Shortly after Dayton won national title #2 in 1989 the push was on to get them out of Division III. A couple western schools were playing Division II football. At the request of Division III, the NCAA adopted a new rule requiring football be played in the same division as basketball and in turn nearly forty schools were pushed out of Division II and Division III (mostly III) and into I-AA (including UAB who opted to go on to I-A). Nearly one-third of Division I-A was now non-scholarship programs.

While Promise #4 was kept it was dimished a bit while the SWAC and MEAC pulled out of the playoffs to participate in their own game, the Heritage Bowl. The MEAC has since returned to participation in the playoffs.

The sad fact is that the reasons for creating I-AA initially are gone.
-We no longer have 13 bowl games for 180 schools, we have 28 and potentially 31, for 117 soon to be 119 schools.
-There is no shared revenue from a national TV contract. Each league cuts its own deal.
-I-AA is no longer the exclusive preserve of high scholarship football one-third of the schools are strongly limited in the aid they can give and another handful are like Tenn-Martin, Richmond, Prarie View (and until a few years ago Western Ky) that are in high scholie leagues but awarding well under the limit.
-The schools are still impaired in their ability to schedule I-A schools, both because only one game in four years can count toward a bowl and because now the smaller I-A's must schedule five I-A home games and no longer have a spot available to schedule them.

There may yet be a purpose for I-AA, but as a home for high scholarship football it is an abject failure.

[Eyes of Old Main]

Green rules!;)

Damn right it does! xlolx :D xlolx :D xlolx :D xlolx

[Eyes of Old Main]

why is it before a game and people warn others about coming into the Rock everyone says oh they will be ready the crowd won't be a factor...but then people are always bringing up home field advantage after a loss as an excuse

I think it's a psychological ploy. Anywhere that's loud can intimidate and/or cause problems, but it only does if the visiting team let's it.

I know Montana's crowd effected Wofford's team, but they chose to ignore it and were OK, but others in loud hostile environments don't. That's not to say Wofford is the greatest road team ever, just that they focused on the game and didn't let the crowd effect them. That being said, there have been other circumstances where the Terriers have been rattled on the road. GSU in 2004, ASU in 2004, and you can almost name you trip to Furman.

[Eyes of Old Main]

how many times did the CAA/A-10 outbid the SoCon? SO maybe the only stat that counts is the $$$$$.

In the playoffs, money talks, and everything else walks.