The Conferences - A Statistical Analysis

[Cranium716]

Time and time again, the question is brought up: What is the strongest conference? Instead of bickering back and forth about the subjective details, I’ve decided to take a look at the more objective facts. Records in the regular season mean absolutely nothing if you don’t make the playoffs, as the ultimate goal of a season is to win the national championship. So I have decided to take a look at the conferences’ performance in the playoffs over the past 5 and 10 years and determine what the strongest conference in the nation is using this data. The way I set up this analysis is as follows:

Each team that makes the playoffs from a conference is given one point. As teams win games and go further into the playoffs, the points received increase. Point values are the following:

1 point for a playoff berth
3 points for a first-round win
5 points for a QF win
7 points for a SF win
10 points for winning the NC

For example, this year’s point breakdown looks like this:

CAA: 31
SoCON: 30
Gateway: 13
Big Sky: 5
OVC: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

Since 1998, the rankings look like this:

SoCON: 231
CAA: 207
Gateway: 111
Big Sky: 96
Southland: 66
OVC: 44
Patriot: 41
MEAC: 27
Independent: 9
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

From these statistics, you can see that the SoCON is ranked as the best conference over the past 10 years, but over the past 5 years, the CAA has been the strongest. It should also be noted that nearly all (83 out of 107 points) of the SoCON’s points came from App St over the past 5 years, while in the CAA, numerous teams contributed to the ranking, including JMU, Richmond, UMass, Delaware, W&M, and UNH.

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now. You can argue the subjective qualities all day long, but when you get down to it and look at it objectively, the CAA has consistently thrived in the playoffs with multiple teams. I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.

[08Dawg]

Not to bash you, but I think any of us would still be a little subjective. I probably would have found a different way to play these numbers. With the CAA putting five teams in the playoff, of course they're going to come out looking strong. Wofford beat Montana, so they put up some numbers. It's not all App State.

[ChickenMan]

It's not all App State.

Just... 77.5%... :p

[Cranium716]

Not to bash you, but I think any of us would still be a little subjective. I probably would have found a different way to play these numbers. With the CAA putting five teams in the playoff, of course they're going to come out looking strong. Wofford beat Montana, so they put up some numbers. It's not all App State.

I agree that this year's numbers for the CAA are higher because of the five teams in the playoffs, but isn't that the point of the whole season, to make the playoffs? App St accounts for 78% of all the SoCON's points since 2003. During this time, the only other SoCON teams to make it out of the first round are Wofford (2003, 9 points), Furman (2004, 4 points), Furman (2005, 9 points), and Wofford (2007, 4 points).

Keep in mind that this is a 5 and 10 year look at the conferences' performances, so this year's numbers do not impact the overall results that much.

[phillyAPP]

Time and time again, the question is brought up: What is the strongest conference? Instead of bickering back and forth about the subjective details, I’ve decided to take a look at the more objective facts. Records in the regular season mean absolutely nothing if you don’t make the playoffs, as the ultimate goal of a season is to win the national championship. So I have decided to take a look at the conferences’ performance in the playoffs over the past 5 and 10 years and determine what the strongest conference in the nation is using this data. The way I set up this analysis is as follows:

Each team that makes the playoffs from a conference is given one point. As teams win games and go further into the playoffs, the points received increase. Point values are the following:

1 point for a playoff berth
3 points for a first-round win
5 points for a QF win
7 points for a SF win
10 points for winning the NC

For example, this year’s point breakdown looks like this:

CAA: 31
SoCON: 30
Gateway: 13
Big Sky: 5
OVC: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

Since 1998, the rankings look like this:

SoCON: 231
CAA: 207
Gateway: 111
Big Sky: 96
Southland: 66
OVC: 44
Patriot: 41
MEAC: 27
Independent: 9
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

From these statistics, you can see that the SoCON is ranked as the best conference over the past 10 years, but over the past 5 years, the CAA has been the strongest. It should also be noted that nearly all (83 out of 107 points) of the SoCON’s points came from App St over the past 5 years, while in the CAA, numerous teams contributed to the ranking, including JMU, Richmond, UMass, Delaware, W&M, and UNH.

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now. You can argue the subjective qualities all day long, but when you get down to it and look at it objectively, the CAA has consistently thrived in the playoffs with multiple teams. I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.


I see what your trying to do BUT CAA 5 teams impacts this year.


The only way to do it is by playing each other and that won't happen because it may impact gettting into the playoffs.

I think the southern conference is as tough as any playoff, as is the CAA, as is the big sky,as is the OVC. We all know that the best 3-4 in any conference can beat each other on "ANY GIVEN SATURDAY". I will say the speed in the southern conerence would give us a few extra wins.

Playoffs is close way to gauge BUT........

Playing the games is the only way to know!

[ChickenMan]

I agree that this year's numbers for the CAA are higher because of the five teams in the playoffs, but isn't that the point of the whole season, to make the playoffs? App St accounts for 78% of all the SoCON's points since 2003. During this time, the only other SoCON teams to make it out of the first round are Wofford (2003, 9 points), Furman (2004, 4 points), Furman (2005, 9 points), and Wofford (2007, 4 points).

Keep in mind that this is a 5 and 10 year look at the conferences' performances, so this year's numbers do not impact the overall results that much.


Can you post the 'points' accumulated by each school over the past ten seasons?

[Cranium716]

Can you post the 'points' accumulated by each school over the past ten seasons?

Yeah, I'll put something together.

[Cranium716]

Here are the team numbers since 1998:

App St 97
Georgia Southern 88
Montana 76
Delaware 55
UMass 51
Western Kentucky 36
Furman 33
N Iowa 33
JMU 29
Youngstown St 26
McNeese St 22
Colgate 19
Southern Illinois 19
Richmond 18
Western Illinois 18
Florida A&M 15
Illinois St 14
Lehigh 14
New Hampshire 13
Sam Houston St 13
Wofford 13
Northwestern St. 12
William & Mary 10
E Washington 9
Florida Atlantic 9
Hofstra 9
Texas St 9
Villanova 9
Maine 8
Eastern Illinois 6
Montana St 6
N Arizona 6
Troy State 6
Fordham 5
NC A&T 5
Cal Poly 4
Hampton 4
UConn 4
Lafayette 3
Bethune-Cookman 2
Jacksonville St 2
Tenn St 2
Coastal Carolina 1
Delaware St 1
E Kentucky 1
Murray St 1
Nicholls St 1
Northeastern 1
Portland St 1
Tenn -Martin 1

And here are the numbers since 2003:

App St 78
Delaware 46
Montana 28
JMU 28
N Iowa 24
UMass 21
Southern Illinois 19
Colgate 17
Furman 14
Richmond 13
New Hampshire 13
Wofford 13
Youngstown St 9
Sam Houston St 9
William & Mary 9
E Washington 9
Florida Atlantic 9
Texas St 9
Western Kentucky 5
Montana St 5
Western Illinois 4
Illinois St 4
N Arizona 4
Cal Poly 4
McNeese St 3
Eastern Illinois 3
Hampton 3
Lafayette 3
Georgia Southern 2
Jacksonville St 2
Lehigh 1
Northwestern St. 1
Fordham 1
NC A&T 1
Bethune-Cookman 1
Coastal Carolina 1
Delaware St 1
E Kentucky 1
Nicholls St 1
Tenn -Martin 1

[ASU88]

This seems to tell us that the CAA is better overall, top to bottom, but that the SoCon has been stronger at the top.

[Cranium716]

This seems to tell us that the CAA is better overall, top to bottom, but that the SoCon has been stronger at the top.

Agreed. The SoCON has had two great teams in GSU and App St, which make up a huge majority of the SoCON's points during the 5 and 10 year periods. But, as it relates to overall conference strength, the CAA is clearly the strongest.

[OL FU]

I am not arguing with the conclusion because I believe that over the last five years the CAA has been the overall best conference. Now where is OnStange when you need him. The statistics are flawed. Mountaineer continued the practice of looking at the playoffs through some statistical manner, but the outcome measures playoff success, not the best conference, not the best team, etc. A Measure of playoff participation really does not measure the best conferences for many reasons, but the main one is the uneven number of teams in a conference. It is almost mathematically impossible for the Gateway or the SoCon to get 4 teams in the playoffs not to mention five. The fact that each team plays all the others plus typically a loss to a I-A team makes the probability low if not zero. A lot has been made of the strength of the CAA and I will grant you I agree, but there are years where 12 teams actually help the CAA look better and I think this was one of those years. IF UD had played UMass in Mass, UD quite possibly would not have made the playoffs. Now I am not saying that is a forgone conclusion but this is one of those years where the schedules worked to the benefit of the CAA ( I think). Also, if you buy the argument that the SoCon is top heavy, then many of the SoCon trips to the playoffs should not have occurred. I will also grant that argument has merit. Last year's Furman team is a good example of that in my opinion.

Now that the bash is over, I know how much work this type of thing is and I appreciate you doing it. But I think you have to look real hard at this as a statistical measure of a conference strength.

[lucchesicourt]

And it also tells us that the teams in the GWFC are very weak, using this method of determining the strength of the conference. A very incorrect assumption since there have only been 2 playoff elgible teams for 4 of the first 5 years of its existence, and 3 playoff elgible teams last year.

[OL FU]

And it also tells us that the teams in the GWFC are very weak, using this method of determining the strength of the conference. A very incorrect assumption since there have only been 2 playoff elgible teams for 4 of the first 5 years of its existence, and 3 playoff elgible teams last year.


Agreed - - See my comments above. Good info but it should not be used for the conclusion drawn

[phillyAPP]

This seems to tell us that the CAA is better overall, top to bottom, but that the SoCon has been stronger at the top.


I do not agree unless you are saying "IN the playoffs" CAA has had more teams in the playoffs. The southern conference would do very well, especially this year if we had 3-5 teams in the playoffs. I believe SC best 5 are as competitive as CAA.

[OL FU]

I do not agree unless you are saying "IN the playoffs" CAA has had more teams in the playoffs. The southern conference would do very well, especially this year if we had 3-5 teams in the playoffs. I believe SC best 5 are as competitive as CAA.


I am going to be a heretic. From and overall percentage top to bottom standpoint, the CAA has been better than the Socon. The SoCon over the last five or so years, not counting this year, has been a two or three team league. Last year App and to some degree Furman. 2006. App and Furman( Wofford a maybe) 2004 - Furman and Georgia Southern and maybe Wofford. 2003 Wofford period. I can't recall off the top of my head the teams in the CAA during that period that would be comparable but typically it would be at least 5 or 6 teams.

The argument that I have always made with the best conference deal is would you rather be the best from top to bottom or the best at the top. I would rather be both, but if I have to choose, I will take being better at the top.

Of course on of the reasons I think that is because historically Furman is close to the top in the SoCon

[Skjellyfetti]

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now.

Thanks for posting this.

Only thing I find flawed is why you picked 2003 to demonstrate the conference that is currently on top. Could it possibly be because Delaware won the NC that year? If I understand how you figure the points, a team winning a championship receives 26 points. That alone is the difference in the Socon vs. CAA during those years. I'd be interested to see the points from 2004-2007.:D



And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

This is why I hate statistics. If you had chosen different years, the results would come out different and if you gave different points for each step in the playoffs the results would be different.

[TCisMYhero]

Time and time again, the question is brought up: What is the strongest conference? Instead of bickering back and forth about the subjective details, I’ve decided to take a look at the more objective facts. Records in the regular season mean absolutely nothing if you don’t make the playoffs, as the ultimate goal of a season is to win the national championship. So I have decided to take a look at the conferences’ performance in the playoffs over the past 5 and 10 years and determine what the strongest conference in the nation is using this data. The way I set up this analysis is as follows:

Each team that makes the playoffs from a conference is given one point. As teams win games and go further into the playoffs, the points received increase. Point values are the following:

1 point for a playoff berth
3 points for a first-round win
5 points for a QF win
7 points for a SF win
10 points for winning the NC

For example, this year’s point breakdown looks like this:

CAA: 31
SoCON: 30
Gateway: 13
Big Sky: 5
OVC: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

Since 1998, the rankings look like this:

SoCON: 231
CAA: 207
Gateway: 111
Big Sky: 96
Southland: 66
OVC: 44
Patriot: 41
MEAC: 27
Independent: 9
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

From these statistics, you can see that the SoCON is ranked as the best conference over the past 10 years, but over the past 5 years, the CAA has been the strongest. It should also be noted that nearly all (83 out of 107 points) of the SoCON’s points came from App St over the past 5 years, while in the CAA, numerous teams contributed to the ranking, including JMU, Richmond, UMass, Delaware, W&M, and UNH.

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now. You can argue the subjective qualities all day long, but when you get down to it and look at it objectively, the CAA has consistently thrived in the playoffs with multiple teams. I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.

Just my $.02, but do you think you should take into account OOC losses, FCS wins/losses, etc. into consideration? I think that might help to make it a bit more objective. For example: CAA gets one point this year for a playoff berth at 7-4, while Gateway gets nothing last year for a UNI team that was 7-4.

[phillyAPP]

I am going to be a heretic. From and overall percentage top to bottom standpoint, the CAA has been better than the Socon. The SoCon over the last five or so years, not counting this year, has been a two or three team league. Last year App and to some degree Furman. 2006. App and Furman( Wofford a maybe) 2004 - Furman and Georgia Southern and maybe Wofford. 2003 Wofford period. I can't recall off the top of my head the teams in the CAA during that period that would be comparable but typically it would be at least 5 or 6 teams.

The argument that I have always made with the best conference deal is would you rather be the best from top to bottom or the best at the top. I would rather be both, but if I have to choose, I will take being better at the top.

Of course on of the reasons I think that is because historically Furman is close to the top in the SoCon


You are correct, SC top 3-4 are as good or better. And now add Elon and Cit.

[jbuggASU]

Are these numbers statistically significant? If so at what level? Haha, feel like I'm back in school.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Yeah did you just arbitrarily pick the amount of points?

And I think you do have to take the regular season at least a little bit into consideration...

There has to be some weight to this too. Some of this should be where a team is seeded and then ultimately who the team lost to. For example, JMU this year could have been the second best team, but they only get 1 point for losing in the first round...

[OL FU]

We are a tough crowdxnodx xsmiley_wix

[Saluki09]

It's a law of averages. Of course if you have 12 teams in one single conference there will be a decent amount that make the playoffs. Thing is, the CAA shouldn't be one conference. They should add a couple teams and split it into two conferences that actually play everyone in their conference. Next year look for the Gateway to bring in 3-4 teams with the Dakota States coming in.

[ASUMountaineer]

I like your analysis and point system. I think it is very accurate to say that the CAA has performed very well in the playoffs the last 10 years. Good work. Hopefully the SoCon will begin to get better from the bottom up.

[Saluki09]

Just for the heck of it, I did your interesting point system for the CAA North and South.

Since 2003

CAA North - 34, More than half from Umass...and the only other team that gave points was UNH

CAA South - 96, almost half of which are from Delaware with JMU contributing a decent amount of the total as well.

So while according to these numbers the CAA South is a strong division, the CAA North would be sitting under the Big Sky (and actually closer to the Southland) in that time span

[Cranium716]

Well holy crap, where are my fellow CAA colleagues when I need them? Let me try and answer a few questions...


Only thing I find flawed is why you picked 2003 to demonstrate the conference that is currently on top. Could it possibly be because Delaware won the NC that year? If I understand how you figure the points, a team winning a championship receives 26 points. That alone is the difference in the Socon vs. CAA during those years. I'd be interested to see the points from 2004-2007.:D

2003 wasn't chosen because of Delaware's NC (I could have picked 2004 since JMU won the NC that year too), but just because of normal increments (5 and 10 years).

Using different starting points yields pretty much the same results, with the exception that App St skews the results. Remember my conclusion: I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.


Just my $.02, but do you think you should take into account OOC losses, FCS wins/losses, etc. into consideration? I think that might help to make it a bit more objective. For example: CAA gets one point this year for a playoff berth at 7-4, while Gateway gets nothing last year for a UNI team that was 7-4.

That's true that points may be awarded for teams with the same records that did and did not make the playoffs; however, in the grand scheme of things, one point will not make a difference. If UNH had beaten UNI this year, additional points would have been added, but since they beat the #1 seed, wouldn't those extra points then be warranted?


Yeah did you just arbitrarily pick the amount of points?

And I think you do have to take the regular season at least a little bit into consideration...

There has to be some weight to this too. Some of this should be where a team is seeded and then ultimately who the team lost to. For example, JMU this year could have been the second best team, but they only get 1 point for losing in the first round...

The rating values were spread out equally, with the exception of the 10 points for winning the NC. Since the values are equidistant from each other, they are perfectly valid for measuring the success in each round. The extra one point (10 instead of 9) for winning the NC is negligable in the grand scheme of things.

I do not agree that the regular season should have a ton of weight because, as I've said before, you play the season to make the playoffs!


It's a law of averages. Of course if you have 12 teams in one single conference there will be a decent amount that make the playoffs. Thing is, the CAA shouldn't be one conference. They should add a couple teams and split it into two conferences that actually play everyone in their conference. Next year look for the Gateway to bring in 3-4 teams with the Dakota States coming in

Good point. Figuring out the "points per team" since 2003 would look like this:

SoCON: 13.4
CAA: 10.8
Gateway: 8.7
BSC: 4.9
SLC: 3.3
Patriot: 3.1
Great West: 0.8
OVC: 0.7
MEAC: 0.7
Big South: 0.1

These numbers can be deceiving however because of App St. Taking them out of the mix, the SoCON's value would only be 4.1. If you took the CAA's highest performer out of the mix (Delaware), the change would not be nearly as dramatic (7.6).

Oh, and by the way, this whole thing is coming from someone who thinks that the Gateway is going to be the strongest conference in the country next year.


Just for the heck of it, I did your interesting point system for the CAA North and South.

Since 2003

CAA North - 34, More than half from Umass...and the only other team that gave points was UNH

CAA South - 96, almost half of which are from Delaware with JMU contributing a decent amount of the total as well.

So while according to these numbers the CAA South is a strong division, the CAA North would be sitting under the Big Sky (and actually closer to the Southland) in that time span

I completely agree that the CAA South is a hell of a lot stronger than the North. However, using the points per team method it would look like this:

CAA South: 16.0
SoCON: 13.4
Gateway: 8.7
CAA North: 5.7
BSC: 4.9

And that is including App St in the SoCON! Plus, W&M and Richmond also contributed a lot of points to the South's total: Delaware (47.9%), JMU (29.2%), Richmond (13.5%), W&M (9.4%).

So technically, it would be fair to say that the CAA South is the strongest "conference" in the country!

[The Moody1]

While I agree this made up system has some merit, it reminds me of the old saying, "figures don't lie, but liars figure." :)

[GSU Eagle]

These numbers show what Georgia Southern fans already know -- in the last 5 years we just haven't been a very dominant team at all. In the 5-10 year ago period we were rolling, but since Paul Johnson left to go to Navy we just haven't been the same.

Hopefully with Chris Hatcher we are on the way back.

[Poly Pigskin]

The average points per team still isn't really a meaningful statistic; it's still skewed by conference size. Having more teams in the playoffs is beneficial because then it's more likely that your teams draw a weaker opponent in the first round, which in turn makes intraconference matchups more likely in successive rounds, which in turn guarantees that conference more points.

And as a homer, I think you have the points per team average too low for the GWFC. Sure, 4 points, 5 teams, but only 2 were eligible (3 this year), so it would make more sense to only count those 2.2 teams Also, how do you handle teams switching conferences during the period you examined like UNC moving from the Great West to Big Sky? Obviously that won't change the statistics drastically, I just like nit-picking stuff like this. Overall, good work, it's fun to look at stuff like this, even if I don't completely agree with the methodology or conclusions.

[UAalum72]

Actually, this is a ranking of "Conference accomplishment in the playoffs, not counting those who choose not to participate, and handicapping those without an automatic bid".

Not only are the Ivy League and SWAC not counted at all, I'd rate the Great West ahead of the OVC and MEAC since 2003, since the GW has actually WON a playoff game lately. I'd eliminate the point for an appearance by an automatic bid entrant, giving them points only for winning a first-round game. Or, since they have only at-large bids, the Big South and GW could be combined with the Independent totals.

[GreatAppSt]

Looks to me more like many CAA fans are desperatly searching for something to prop up their crushed egos.xbawlingx Okay I'll say it the CAA is the bestest conference in these whole United States O America. Yep they sure is! Uhuh I agree your the #1. The real deal. All that an a bag o chips, the whole enchilada. xcoolx I hope that make y'all better now STFU about it? We get it.xrolleyesx xrolleyesx xrolleyesx

xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex xdeadhorsex :pumpuke:

[furpal87]

Actually, the one additional statistic to add would be road wins mean more than home wins. JMU's run in 2004 is in someways the most impressive because it was done on the road as was Delaware's two wins this year.

[ChickenMan]

Looks to me more like many CAA fans are desperatly searching for something to prop up their crushed egos.

Crushed egos??? Five teams in the playoffs.. three in the quarters.. two in the semi's and one in the finals.. crushed isn't the word I would use... ;)

[ChickenMan]

Actually, the one additional statistic to add would be road wins mean more than home wins. JMU's run in 2004 is in someways the most impressive because it was done on the road as was Delaware's two wins this year.

Very true... xthumbsupx

[Saint3333]

Looks to me more like many CAA fans are desperatly searching for something to prop up their crushed egos.xbawlingx Okay I'll say it the CAA is the bestest conference in these whole United States O America. Yep they sure is! Uhuh I agree your the #1. The real deal. All that an a bag o chips, the whole enchilada.


Doesn't it feel good to be the 2007 CAA Champsxthumbsupx!

[Eyes of Old Main]

I would say that historically, the SoCon has had extremely powerful teams at the top and extremely weak ones at the bottom. Over the years, Georgia Southern, Appalachian State and Furman have been very competitive and/or dominant on the national level. But, others, such as Western Carolina and Chattanooga have not been. No question the CAA has been deeper recently and has also won its share of playoff games and titles.

At present, I would say the CAA is the stronger conference, top to bottom, but that is somewhat skewed by the fact that they have more teams. That size skew is the same as how the pre-expansion ACC generally got fewer teams into the NCAA basketball tournament when few would actually argue that the SEC was a better conference.

[Seven Would Be Nice]

This statistical analysis does not take into account how the committee screwed the socon teams from getting into the playoffs, this year, and several others.

[RazorEdge19]

Time and time again, the question is brought up: What is the strongest conference? Instead of bickering back and forth about the subjective details, I’ve decided to take a look at the more objective facts. Records in the regular season mean absolutely nothing if you don’t make the playoffs, as the ultimate goal of a season is to win the national championship. So I have decided to take a look at the conferences’ performance in the playoffs over the past 5 and 10 years and determine what the strongest conference in the nation is using this data. The way I set up this analysis is as follows:

Each team that makes the playoffs from a conference is given one point. As teams win games and go further into the playoffs, the points received increase. Point values are the following:

1 point for a playoff berth
3 points for a first-round win
5 points for a QF win
7 points for a SF win
10 points for winning the NC

For example, this year’s point breakdown looks like this:

CAA: 31
SoCON: 30
Gateway: 13
Big Sky: 5
OVC: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

Since 1998, the rankings look like this:

SoCON: 231
CAA: 207
Gateway: 111
Big Sky: 96
Southland: 66
OVC: 44
Patriot: 41
MEAC: 27
Independent: 9
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

From these statistics, you can see that the SoCON is ranked as the best conference over the past 10 years, but over the past 5 years, the CAA has been the strongest. It should also be noted that nearly all (83 out of 107 points) of the SoCON’s points came from App St over the past 5 years, while in the CAA, numerous teams contributed to the ranking, including JMU, Richmond, UMass, Delaware, W&M, and UNH.

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now. You can argue the subjective qualities all day long, but when you get down to it and look at it objectively, the CAA has consistently thrived in the playoffs with multiple teams. I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.

While I appreciate the effort put into these stats, when it comes down to it, they mean absolutely jack. Its like the BCS, you can get close, but put both teams on the field and you could have a totally different result then the stats predict.

[FCS Preview]

This statistical analysis does not take into account how the committee screwed the socon teams from getting into the playoffs, this year, and several others.

xdeadhorsex

Everyone from the SoCon with 7 D-I wins made the playoffs. They did not get screwed. Now...Hofstra, Villanova, Norfolk State...they have reason to complain. But you hear nary a peep out of those fans.

[SoCon48]

Time and time again, the question is brought up: What is the strongest conference? Instead of bickering back and forth about the subjective details, I’ve decided to take a look at the more objective facts. Records in the regular season mean absolutely nothing if you don’t make the playoffs, as the ultimate goal of a season is to win the national championship. So I have decided to take a look at the conferences’ performance in the playoffs over the past 5 and 10 years and determine what the strongest conference in the nation is using this data. The way I set up this analysis is as follows:

Each team that makes the playoffs from a conference is given one point. As teams win games and go further into the playoffs, the points received increase. Point values are the following:

1 point for a playoff berth
3 points for a first-round win
5 points for a QF win
7 points for a SF win
10 points for winning the NC

For example, this year’s point breakdown looks like this:

CAA: 31
SoCON: 30
Gateway: 13
Big Sky: 5
OVC: 2
MEAC: 1
Patriot: 1
Southland: 1

Since 1998, the rankings look like this:

SoCON: 231
CAA: 207
Gateway: 111
Big Sky: 96
Southland: 66
OVC: 44
Patriot: 41
MEAC: 27
Independent: 9
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

And since 2003, the rankings look like this:

CAA: 130
SoCON: 107
Gateway: 61
Big Sky: 44
Southland: 26
Patriot: 22
Independent: 9
OVC: 7
MEAC: 6
Great West: 4
Big South: 1

From these statistics, you can see that the SoCON is ranked as the best conference over the past 10 years, but over the past 5 years, the CAA has been the strongest. It should also be noted that nearly all (83 out of 107 points) of the SoCON’s points came from App St over the past 5 years, while in the CAA, numerous teams contributed to the ranking, including JMU, Richmond, UMass, Delaware, W&M, and UNH.

From this analysis, I think that it is perfectly clear that when you look at the conferences objectively that the CAA is the strongest conference in the nation right now. You can argue the subjective qualities all day long, but when you get down to it and look at it objectively, the CAA has consistently thrived in the playoffs with multiple teams. I don’t think that anyone can argue that the best team in the country comes from the SoCON, but the best conference has now been proven to be the CAA.

Look at it this way. The CAA put in 5 teams and none (0, zilch, nada) won the National Championship.

[FCS Preview]

Look at it this way. The CAA put in 5 teams and none (0, zilch, nada) won the National Championship.

And the CAA didn't get a single home game after the first round either.

CAA had 3 home games, and 7 road games, not counting the NC game.

[Eyes of Old Main]

And the CAA didn't get a single home game after the first round either.

CAA had 3 home games, and 7 road games, not counting the NC game.

Then the CAA should bid more money for games. Appalachian only got one game based off their attendence (the first round). From there, they'd have been on the road had the bracket not blown up. From that point on, it was all about the bid value.

Same with Wofford. They had to travel to Montana based off seeding, but once they won, they got their home game against higher ranked Richmond because they put more money on the NCAA's table (although Richmond didn't help their cause much with their attendence at home in the first round).

Granted, the CAA won some big games on the road at UNI, SIU, Wofford, etc., but since we all universally acknowledge that money talks and everything else walks in the playoffs, it's hard to defend the CAA not bringing home the title based off them having to go on the road most of the time.

[ChickenMan]

Granted, the CAA won some big games on the road at UNI, SIU, Wofford, etc., but since we all universally acknowledge that money talks and everything else walks in the playoffs, it's hard to defend the CAA not bringing home the title based off them having to go on the road most of the time.


The CAA didn't bring home a title because ASU was the best FCS 'team' in the nation.. however ASU winning sure as hell doesn't mean that the SoCon was the best 'conference' in the nation... ;)

[ASU]

The CAA didn't bring home a title because ASU was the best FCS 'team' in the nation.. however ASU winning sure as hell doesn't mean that the SoCon was the best 'conference' in the nation... ;)

Chicken Man.....is that a picture of you or your former coach....what was his name? Heard his interview on SME .... went to Michigan and coached there a long time, with much success....what is his name, it bugs me (sorry, I should remember).

We are never going to settle the "Best" conference thing.....both conferences are good. It's just great that so many people that belong to a particular conference thinks that their conference is best. Means a lot more than thinking that the conference you are in is the worst. Even if you figure it out....the next year it can change...just think what the Gateway will be like next year....should be much stronger.

[wocorebel]

I just want to add to all of the people thinking that the CAA is better. Georgia Southern and Wofford both beat App this year. If I remember correctly, App beat JMU, Richmond and Delaware. It seems that the SOCON has teams that can beat App but the CAA doesn't. YOu can say we are top heavy in your calculations but we have teams that can beat that team, it seems like you guys don't.

[FCS Preview]

Yet GSU lost to Elon, Chattanooga and Furman -- three teams that didn't make the playoffs.

Hofstra beat Furman, who beat GSU who beat App State. So maybe App State is lucky Hofstra was denied a playoff berth. Of course had JMU not had a brain fart late in the game against App State, we might not even be having this conversation...

[Eaglegus2]

Yet GSU lost to Elon, Chattanooga and Furman -- three teams that didn't make the playoffs.

Hofstra beat Furman, who beat GSU who beat App State. So maybe App State is lucky Hofstra was denied a playoff berth. Of course had JMU not had a brain fart late in the game against App State, we might not even be having this conversation...

Maybe, you should thank the committee for denying Georgia Southern a playoff berth.

It could have been an all SoCon championship game.xsmiley_wix

[appchuck]

I don't understand why people are saying that App is skewing the results, last I heard was that App was in the SoCon in the playoffs, and I believe we still are. By the same argument we can say that Delaware and JMU skew the results.

My 2 cents, as said before, I believe the top 3 in the socon in the past 5 or ten years could possibly beat the top 3 in the CAA, but the bottom 3 of the SoCon probably would lose to the bottom 3 of the CAA.

[ChickenMan]

My 2 cents, as said before, I believe the top 3 in the socon in the past 5 or ten years could possibly beat the top 3 in the CAA, but the bottom 3 of the SoCon probably would lose to the bottom 3 of the CAA.


That opinion has already been debunked in the playoffs.. numerous times..


Of course the top of the SoCon has won games vs the best of the CAA.. but the CAA has also won more than their fair share vs the best of the SoCon as well..

'97.. UD over GSU (at UD)
'98.. UMass over GSU (neutral)
'99.. UMass over Furman (at Furman)
'00.. Hofstra over Furman (at Furman)
'02.. Maine over ASU (at ASU)
'02.. Villanova over Furman (at Nova)
'03.. UD over Wofford (at UD)
'04.. UNH over GSU (at GSU)
'04.. JMU over Furman (at Furman)
'07.. Richmond over Wofford (at Wofford)

That's ten wins and only THREE of those CAA wins came on their home fields.. SIX were on the road at SoCon opponents and one in a neutral championship game. I'd say the CAA has done pretty well vs the SoCon's best.. ;)

[appstate38]

Having only read the first few pages on this thread it seems that this debate has gotten into being a silly contest to see whose schmeckle is bigger..... Can't we just agree that all the stats aside, these are 2 pretty strong conferences with quality teams.


Appalachian State- 2007 SoCon Champs
2007 National Champs
2007 CAA South Champs

[stevdock]

20-2 the last two years and according to this we are no better than Indiana State, Southern Utah, etc. Didn't know we had to jump from dead last to Top 16 to make the playoffs. There is a danger in completely throwing out regular season record. Instead of completely throwing them out, weight them using SOS.

[Cocky]

I just want to add to all of the people thinking that the CAA is better. Georgia Southern and Wofford both beat App this year. If I remember correctly, App beat JMU, Richmond and Delaware. It seems that the SOCON has teams that can beat App but the CAA doesn't. YOu can say we are top heavy in your calculations but we have teams that can beat that team, it seems like you guys don't.


JSU beat Chattanooga who beat GSU who beat App. So I guess the OVC is the best conference. Plus the OVC had a winning record against the SOCON. No I'm wrong the CAA is the best because they beat the OVC champ in the playoffs. No, the SOCON is the best because they beat Richmond. No, App lost to GSU and the circle keeps going.

Top to bottom it is either CAA or SOCON but in most recent years the CAA is the best top to bottom and the SOCON has had the champion. So which makes you better...........?

[mountaineertider]

I see the comparision between the SoCon and the CAA like FBSers see the comparisions between the Big 11 and the SEC. Both of them are extremely strong and if two teams from each play it could go either way. Sometimes the SEC (or in our case SoCon) wins because they have the speed advantage. Sometimes the Big 11 (in our case the CAA) wins with their bigger, stronger players.

Is one confrence better than the other? Sure, it just depends on the year. I'm still trying to figure out who's better this year. xconfusedx

[stevdock]

Who is the big 11?

[mountaineertider]

The Big "10"

[Monarch History]

Having only read the first few pages on this thread it seems that this debate has gotten into being a silly contest to see whose schmeckle is bigger..... Can't we just agree that all the stats aside, these are 2 pretty strong conferences with quality teams.

Finally a man of reason. xbowx xbowx xbowx