2023 Playoffs Round 2: Sacramento State @ #3 South Dakota

[Professor Chaos]

Game kicks off Saturday 12/2 at 1PM CT and will be streaming on ESPN+. Winner faces the winner of North Dakota State and Montana St.


https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/53356229237_af8a97694d_b.jpg

[BisonFan02]

Did you have the thread already waiting. :D

[Professor Chaos]

Did you have the thread already waiting. :D
Maybe.... I may or may not have edited the title slightly. :D

[TheKingpin28]

All is becoming right again.

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[Born a Rabbit]

what will the line be here? right now it does not feel like coyotes could be much bigger favorites than UND was going into today vs the hornets. obviously yotes have a FAR better D than the Fhawks have but this feels like a tight one

[Utgrizfan]

Seems South Dakotas offense is their weakest side of the ball but I think they can score points on the Hornets. This could be another shootout if Sac State performs like that did today on Offense, will come down to Strength on Strength: Sac Offense vs SD Defense

[POD Knows]

I mean, we are talking about South Dakota, this has to be an aberration or a glitch in the matrix or something. I think USD wins but I just can't wrap my head around it.

[Green Cookie Monster]

but I just can't wrap my head around it.

Shouldn’t be too hard to do.

[2wagriz]

Big sky starts out by performing better than the MV. Wrong conference got too many teams in.

[Chalupa Batman]

South Dakota this year are like the Minnesota Vikings last year. They just find a way to keep winning every close game in the regular season. It caught up with the Vikings in the playoffs, can the Coyotes keep the magic going if it's another tight one?

[Christiank22]

Big sky starts out by performing better than the MV. Wrong conference got too many teams in.

Very poor attempt at trolling

[2wagriz]

Very poor attempt at trolling

Trolling no. Facts, yes. Less dessert at GC?

[TrooperCoats]

Should be a fun game. Sac St looked fast, and I have no idea how the Yotes would do in a defense-optional game.
I suspect the Yotes defensive ends will do a much better job of containing the edge than what UND did today. Beyond that, who knows. Yotes are very young - not sure what to expect in the playoffs.

[MTfan4life]

Should be a fun game. Sac St looked fast, and I have no idea how the Yotes would do in a defense-optional game.
I suspect the Yotes defensive ends will do a much better job of containing the edge than what UND did today. Beyond that, who knows. Yotes are very young - not sure what to expect in the playoffs.

There were 920 combined yards when they played Youngstown State, so they do have a little experience in a game with minimal defensive success. Sac State's run defense is pretty poor. South Dakota simply needs to find a way to run the ball to stay on top of this one.

[TrooperCoats]

There were 920 combined yards when they played Youngstown State, so they do have a little experience in a game with minimal defensive success. Sac State's run defense is pretty poor. South Dakota simply needs to find a way to run the ball to stay on top of this one.
Fair point. That game is the case study for why most people outside of USD aren't 'believers'. Yotes were up 3 TD's in the 2nd half, and then uncharacteristically gave up several big plays in a row. So they needed to score (and did), but never trailed. Similar story with NDSU & SIU - up multiple scores late, then defense/offense philosophy changes and the other team comes back to make it look much closer than the rest of the game really was.

Even the UND game didn't feel like it was really in doubt, and USD trailed. Kind of hard to describe/figure out. There is no question the Yotes stop trying to score and start trying to run out the clock when up multiple scores in the 2nd half.

[POD Knows]

There were 920 combined yards when they played Youngstown State, so they do have a little experience in a game with minimal defensive success. Sac State's run defense is pretty poor. South Dakota simply needs to find a way to run the ball to stay on top of this one.
UND was running the ball down Sac States throat and then decided to get cute throwing the ball and it probably cost them the game.

[Houndawg]

Trolling no. Facts, yes. Less dessert at GC?

Thats some feeble smack, hopefully you will improve with practice and be able to hang at this level

[robsnotes4u]

UND was running the ball down Sac States throat and then decided to get cute throwing the ball and it probably cost them the game.

Sounds like the Cats as of late.


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[ming01]

USD seems like the better overall team. They can play defense unlike UND.

[The Cats]

South Dakota

[FUBeAR]

Haven't read this thread...don't really intend to...sorry Hornet/Coyote fans, FUBeAR just ain't that into you.

But...since FUBeAR did the research last summer and opened the file for another reason, he thought he would provide some historical data that may interest the peeps posting in this thread...If this has already been posted here or you are uninterested...FUBeAR don't care.

In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #3 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents, in Round 2, is:

#3 Seeds = 6 WINS and 3 L's
Unseeded = 3 L's and 6 WINS

The Average Score in the 6 #3 Seed WINS has been ~42-~18; a margin of victory of ~24 points.
The Average Score in the 3 Unseeded WINS has been ~31-~19; a margin of victory of ~12 points.

#3 Seeds have 'held serve' in Round 2 in the 4 most recent 24/8 Playoffs.

Interestingly, only Jacksonville State (OVC) has been upset in Round 2, as a #3 Seed ... 3 times ... ALL 3 times it happened, as follows...
In 2017, lost to unseeded Kennesaw (Big South) 17-7.
In 2016, lost to unseeded Youngstown State (MVFC) 40-24.
In 2014, lost to unseeded Sam Houston State (Southland) 37-26.

South Dakota, like JaxSt...does wear Red. Y'all can call that "vermillion" if you want to, but it's red. FUBeAR is not going to put USD on official UPSET ALERT because of the color coincidence, but it is something to keep in mind as you're placing your gentlemens' wagers on this game.

[Karl Havoc]

South Dakota is favored by 7.5.

[dbackjon]

Hornets own the Dakotas

[TrooperCoats]

Question for stats nerds: The stats in the first post include a few things I haven't seen before. In the MVFC thread, we had a discussion a few weeks ago about advanced stats and KenPom-esque points per possession. Does the Offensive Yards Per Play kind of do the same thing (takes away pace of play)? Assuming it does, wouldn't the yards/play be the metric to use for ranking an offense (as opposed to total yards or points)?

It would still seem to me that a points per play or points per possession would be the best metric. If you have ever watched USD play, you know they are very slow/methodical on offense - they shorten the game so there are few possessions. That is a big reason everyone says the Yotes offense isn't very good. Using this game, Yotes Offense Yards/Play is better than Sac St, but the offense rankings are flipped big time - USD #48 Sac St #4.

What am I missing/what am I getting right?

[Professor Chaos]

Question for stats nerds: The stats in the first post include a few things I haven't seen before. In the MVFC thread, we had a discussion a few weeks ago about advanced stats and KenPom-esque points per possession. Does the Offensive Yards Per Play kind of do the same thing (takes away pace of play)? Assuming it does, wouldn't the yards/play be the metric to use for ranking an offense (as opposed to total yards or points)?

It would still seem to me that a points per play or points per possession would be the best metric. If you have ever watched USD play, you know they are very slow/methodical on offense - they shorten the game so there are few possessions. That is a big reason everyone says the Yotes offense isn't very good. Using this game, Yotes Offense Yards/Play is better than Sac St, but the offense rankings are flipped big time - USD #48 Sac St #4.

What am I missing/what am I getting right?
There's nothing advanced about yards per play - it is what the description says it is. Pace of play shouldn't impact yards per play - it could impact yards per game or points per game. I do have total plays in the Power BI report that I use to put this together so I could calculate that kind of thing but my stats list is pretty lengthy already so I don't think it would be all that useful since it would further clutter up the list.

As a fan of a team whose offense works stubbornly slow at all times (even when it's not in their best interest) I can understand how yards and point per game numbers for the offense suffer because of it. However, yards and points per game numbers for the defense should be better because of it and, like I said earlier, yards per play shouldn't be impacted by how slowly or quickly the offense is working.

EDIT: The overall offense ranking is from Massey - I'm not sure how it's calculated but I'm guessing it takes into account somewhat how fast each teams plays.

EDIT2: IMO the true gauge of how potent an offense is can be gleaned primarily from 2 stat categories: yards per carry and passing efficiency. After that 3rd down conversion and red zone percentages are good indicators as well.

[JacksFan40]

Hornets own the Dakotas
Hornets own one of the Dakotas. SDSU beat them in 2021 in Sacramento.

[TrooperCoats]

Hornets own one of the Dakotas. SDSU beat them in 2021 in Sacramento.
USD has zero losses to Sac St.

[RahRahRabbits]

USD has zero losses to Sac St.

I'd imagine that would be the F'in Hawks he was referring to... and I would really caution anyone against using playoff-UND as a metric to how good or bad the Valley is. Remember... they spent 7 years in the Big Sky (9 if you count their 2 independent years playing a full BS schedule in 2018-19), and they're only in their 4th in the Valley. One could argue their mediocrity is still deeply rooted from their Big Sky days. xlolx

For what it's worth, Sac State is 3-4 all time against UND, 0-1 against both SDSU and NDSU, and have never played USD.

Now back to your regular scheduled programming of Hornets @ Coyoteees. Should be a good game... I don't think the "scary Midwest winter weather" should be too much of a factor... but do be aware, I think the wind blows weird in that dome.

[TrooperCoats]

Haven't read this thread...don't really intend to...sorry Hornet/Coyote fans, FUBeAR just ain't that into you.

But...since FUBeAR did the research last summer and opened the file for another reason, he thought he would provide some historical data that may interest the peeps posting in this thread...If this has already been posted here or you are uninterested...FUBeAR don't care.

In the 9 prior Playoffs that have utilized the 24 Team / 8 Seeds (with home games AND 1 week rests prior), the record of #3 Seeds vs. Unseeded Opponents, in Round 2, is:

#3 Seeds = 6 WINS and 3 L's
Unseeded = 3 L's and 6 WINS

The Average Score in the 6 #3 Seed WINS has been ~42-~18; a margin of victory of ~24 points.
The Average Score in the 3 Unseeded WINS has been ~31-~19; a margin of victory of ~12 points.

#3 Seeds have 'held serve' in Round 2 in the 4 most recent 24/8 Playoffs.

Interestingly, only Jacksonville State (OVC) has been upset in Round 2, as a #3 Seed ... 3 times ... ALL 3 times it happened, as follows...
In 2017, lost to unseeded Kennesaw (Big South) 17-7.
In 2016, lost to unseeded Youngstown State (MVFC) 40-24.
In 2014, lost to unseeded Sam Houston State (Southland) 37-26.

South Dakota, like JaxSt...does wear Red. Y'all can call that "vermillion" if you want to, but it's red. FUBeAR is not going to put USD on official UPSET ALERT because of the color coincidence, but it is something to keep in mind as you're placing your gentlemens' wagers on this game.
Mr. FUBeAR, do you have all these put in one spot? It looks like the 3 seed has the same record (6-3) as the 6 seed, which is surprising. Any other weird findings?

[Grizzlies82]

I am surprised this poll is as close as it is. Would have expected a much wider margin for South Dakota.

[TrooperCoats]

I am surprised this poll is as close as it is. Would have expected a much wider margin for South Dakota.
From what I can gather, the reasons a lot of people are picking against USD:
- Sac St was able to score against UND, and since that is only one letter different, they will be able to score against USD
- USD doesn't score enough or blow out enough teams for anyone to care
- USD plays in a dome, which some people hate for some reason
- USD had an off year last year, so clearly they can't actually be very good this year

I think the underdog role suits the team pretty well, tbh.

[Paladin1aa]

My prediction - this will be close. USD wins 28-24.

[Chalupa Batman]

From what I can gather, the reasons a lot of people are picking against USD:

- USD doesn't score enough or blow out enough teams for anyone to care

I think the underdog role suits the team pretty well, tbh.

It’s this one. The 4 wins against playoff teams are nice, but they came by 19 points total so your margin of error has been small. This and getting one of the more difficult draws of the seeded teams also doesn’t help. I think people would be more confident in you if you were playing Richmond, Delaware, or even Mercer.

[Karl Havoc]

I’ll be on South Dakota tomorrow. Third straight road game for Sac and 4th in 5 weeks. They played penalty-free and turnover-free football last week - good luck repeating that. Kaiden Bennett is a game changer but the defense is soft and USD’s defense won’t be nearly as generous as UND’s. Sac really faded after September and last week doesn’t change my mind.

[TrooperCoats]

It’s this one. The 4 wins against playoff teams are nice, but they came by 19 points total so your margin of error has been small. This and getting one of the more difficult draws of the seeded teams also doesn’t help. I think people would be more confident in you if you were playing Richmond, Delaware, or even Mercer.
All fair points.
The counter to the close wins is the late TD's scored against the Yotes (NDSU is a good example), but I think that goes along with their style, which quite frankly doesn't leave a lot of room for error. The Yotes tend to score when then need to, as opposed to when they can. But I'm not complaining.

I expect a two score win on Saturday, but even if it is a loss, it will still have been a successful season.

[Houndawg]

It’s this one. The 4 wins against playoff teams are nice, but they came by 19 points total so your margin of error has been small. This and getting one of the more difficult draws of the seeded teams also doesn’t help. I think people would be more confident in you if you were playing Richmond, Delaware, or even Mercer.

Not to mention the blown call that preserved their 7-point win against an SIU team that held them to 85 yds rushing and under 200 yds total. Solid potential for an upset as USD was one play away from being an at-large instead of the #3 seed, however that same game also showed that the ball is mostly bouncing USDs way this year. Home team by 3.

[TrooperCoats]

Not to mention the blown call that preserved their 7-point win against an SIU team that held them to 85 yds rushing and under 200 yds total. Solid potential for an upset as USD was one play away from being an at-large instead of the #3 seed, however that same game also showed that the ball is mostly bouncing USDs way this year. Home team by 3.
Oh man - I forgot about that game. From and SIU standpoint, I think your take is spot on.
From a USD standpoint, it was a great example of what I mentioned above. Yotes got up 2 scores and were content bleeding the clock and punting for field position (no doubt because they were confident the D wasn't going to give up two scores). But then the D changed too for some reason, so SIU almost scored 2 TD's in the last 3:06 (had zero points in the first 56:54). Yotes control the whole game and then in the last 5 minutes things get weird.

Also, it is funny to me how two fanbases can have such different takes on the same game and both be right.

- - - Updated - - -

[Houndawg]

Oh man - I forgot about that game. From and SIU standpoint, I think your take is spot on.
From a USD standpoint, it was a great example of what I mentioned above. Yotes got up 2 scores and were content bleeding the clock and punting for field position (no doubt because they were confident the D wasn't going to give up two scores). But then the D changed too for some reason, so SIU almost scored 2 TD's in the last 3:06 (had zero points in the first 56:54). Yotes control the whole game and then in the last 5 minutes things get weird.

Also, it is funny to me how two fanbases can have such different takes on the same game and both be right.

- - - Updated - - -

There's Exhibit A right there - from our perspective, 332yds offense, it felt less like being controlled for 57 minutes and more like 57 minutes of us not being able to control ourselves, 7 penalties, 6 sacks. Give credit to the Yotes d for the sacks, but it wasn't like we couldn't move the ball, it was just one of those games everybody has now and then and not to suggest that SIU deserved the W, the teams are evenly matched and the game went down to the final play. I spent much of my youth near Sacramento and played rugby with quite a few guys that played fb at Sac State - best of luck to the Yotes today

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Yotes up 24-7 8:38 2Q

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Is game one of those "if a tree falls in the woods..." type deal?

Yotes 31-17 8:48 4Q

[JacksFan40]

Coyotes win 34-24.

Winner of NDSU/MSU will head to Vermillion.