All Team Playoff Chances

[leopardball2010]

I don't follow Red Herring Bets, but here are their estimates on each team for each round:

https://twitter.com/redherringbets/status/1727812994787361268?s=61

(And yes, I know it sounds like a troll account, but their post history suggest some semblance of serious information lol)

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[The Cats]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_pswlSbYAAzDBs?format=jpg&name=small

[KPSUL]

So they think Drake has a 13% chance of beating NDSU in the Fargo Dome?xcrazyx

Credibility right down the drain.

[skinny_uncle]

So they think Drake has a 13% chance of beating NDSU in the Fargo Dome?xcrazyx

Credibility right down the drain.


xconfusedx

[ST_Lawson]

So they think Drake has a 13% chance of beating NDSU in the Fargo Dome?xcrazyx

Credibility right down the drain.

For reference, here's what Massey says about teams winning their first round games:

North Dakota State - 100%
Southern Illinois - 90%
Youngstown State - 90%
Delaware - 87%
Richmond - 78%
Austin Peay - 69%
Mercer - 67%
North Dakota - 55%
------------------------
Sacramento State - 45%
Gardner-Webb - 33%
Chattanooga - 31%
NC Central - 22%
Lafayette - 13%
Nicholls State - 10%
Duquesne - 10%
Drake - 0%

Home teams are favored in all games.

[skinny_uncle]

A Valley team will take the title.

[MR. CHICKEN]

A Valley team will take the title.

........DID YA.....REALLY HAVE TA POST DAT......xsighx.....AWQ?

[leopardball2010]

Massy has Lafayette with only a 13% over Deleware? I need to better understand that formula. You tell me 25-30% sure I'll understand. But 13?!?!

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[Chalupa Batman]

Massy has Lafayette with only a 13% over Deleware? I need to better understand that formula. You tell me 25-30% sure I'll understand. But 13?!?!

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I see Lafayette with a 34% chance to beat Delaware. Drake has a 13% chance to beat NDSU.

[leopardball2010]

I see Lafayette with a 34% chance to beat Delaware. Drake has a 13% chance to beat NDSU.The other poster was saying Massy has Lafayette at 13% the chart from Red Herring Bets does have Lafayette at 34%.

I was just saying that I definitely don't understand the Massy ratings and I need to read more about methodology

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[Chalupa Batman]

The other poster was saying Massy has Lafayette at 13% the chart from Red Herring Bets does have Lafayette at 34%.

I was just saying that I definitely don't understand the Massy ratings and I need to read more about methodology

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Ah okay. I agree with Red Herring Bets on the Lafayette chances, and with Massey on the Drake chances.

[ElCid]

I see Lafayette with a 34% chance to beat Delaware. Drake has a 13% chance to beat NDSU.

It changed because of the games the last few days. That's the problem with the computer. If the link between teams isn't very strong, as it is within a conf, you can get bigger swings. But 13% for Lafayette, is ridiculous. If I was to guess.... Lafayette's chances dropped because, Buffalo got buffaloed by a real bad E Michigan last night...which lessened Fordham's win, which lessened Lafayette's win. And BC got smashed by Miami, and BC beat Syracuse, who in turn thumped Colgate, who beat Lafayette. Those are just two inputs. There are probably more.

[ejjones]

For reference, here's what Massey says about teams winning their first round games:

North Dakota State - 100%
Southern Illinois - 90%
Youngstown State - 90%
Delaware - 87%
Richmond - 78%
Austin Peay - 69%
Mercer - 67%
North Dakota - 55%
------------------------
Sacramento State - 45%
Gardner-Webb - 33%
Chattanooga - 31%
NC Central - 22%
Lafayette - 13%
Nicholls State - 10%
Duquesne - 10%
Drake - 0%

Home teams are favored in all games.
RICH too high IMO. Could easily be reversed..

[Chalupa Batman]

It changed because of the games the last few days. That's the problem with the computer. If the link between teams isn't very strong, as it is within a conf, you can get bigger swings. But 13% for Lafayette, is ridiculous. If I was to guess.... Lafayette's chances dropped because, Buffalo got buffaloed by a real bad E Michigan last night...which lessened Fordham's win, which lessened Lafayette's win. And BC got smashed by Miami, and BC beat Syracuse, who in turn thumped Colgate, who beat Lafayette. Those are just two inputs. There are probably more.

I think Red Herring Bets has their own odds, or at least gets them from some place other than Massey. Southern Illinois going from 57% to 90%, YSU from 71% to 90%, Delaware from 66% to 87%. That seems like way too much movement for Massey to change odds that much.

[ElCid]

I think Red Herring Bets has their own odds, or at least gets them from some place other than Massey. Southern Illinois going from 57% to 90%, YSU from 71% to 90%, Delaware from 66% to 87%. That seems like way too much movement for Massey to change odds that much.

Yup. It's a mathematical formula based on a set algorithm though. The betting odds/spread have everything to do with current money bet, whether it is accurate or not. The S Illinois and YSU moves probably have to do with all the MAC games this week with the link being the S Illinois win.

[gofurman]

For reference, here's what Massey says about teams winning their first round games:

North Dakota State - 100%
Southern Illinois - 90%
Youngstown State - 90%
Delaware - 87%
Richmond - 78%
Austin Peay - 69%
Mercer - 67%
North Dakota - 55%
------------------------
Sacramento State - 45%
Gardner-Webb - 33%
Chattanooga - 31%
NC Central - 22%
Lafayette - 13%
Nicholls State - 10%
Duquesne - 10%
Drake - 0%

Home teams are favored in all games.

SOCON DOING WELL. 2 - 0. I hope people remember this next year

Mercer holding serve at 67%
Chattanooga exceeding the supposed 31% chance on the road.

and Chattanooga won WITHOUT three best players. All America RB Aliya Ford. Starting QB. SoCon DPIY person. All out or left game