Predict the field

[Professor Chaos]

Predict the at-large teams and the seeds.

For the seeds I'll take:
1) SDSU
2) Montana
3) USD
4) Albany
5) Villanova
6) Idaho
7) Furman
8) NDSU
9) Montana St (yes I realize this isn't an actual seed - flip a 3 sided coin to guess which of Furman/NDSU/Montana St won't be seeded)


The autos:
1. SDSU (MVFC)
2. Montana (Big Sky)
3. Villanova (CAA)
4. Furman (SOCON)
5. Austin Peay (UAC)
6. Lafayette (Patriot)
7. Gardner-Webb (Big South-OVC)
8. Nicholls (Southland)
9. Duquesne (NEC)
10. Drake (Pioneer)

For the at large here's who I think is in safely (in alpha order):
1. Albany
2. Delaware
3. Idaho
4. Mercer
5. Montana St
6. NDSU
7. Richmond
8. USD

That leaves 6 spots left for these teams who I think are the bubble contenders (in alpha order):
Chattanooga
EIU
Holy Cross
NC Central
Sac St
SIU
UC Davis
UIW
UND
UTM
YSU
WCU

For those 6 I'd take (in order): UND, YSU, SIU, UC Davis, Sac St, NC Central
Leaving these out: Chattanooga, UIW, WCU, EIU, Holy Cross, UTM

What do you think? A lot of uncertainty on the bubble this year - will be interesting to see what the AGS Poll consensus is.

[DFW HOYA]

Holy Cross lost to Army in the final two minutes and lost in overtime to BC and Lafayette. What more did they have to do?

[Professor Chaos]

Holy Cross lost to Army in the final two minutes and lost in overtime to BC and Lafayette. What more did they have to do?
Beat one of those teams... or not lose by 2 scores to Harvard.

[Chalupa Batman]

I just posted this in the playoff prognostication thread:


Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Last 4 in: Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central.
First 4 Out: UC Davis, Sacramento State, UT Martin, Incarnate Word



Holy **** is the bubble TOUGH this year!!

[DFW HOYA]

Beat one of those teams... or not lose by 2 scores to Harvard.

How many other at-large candidates have an FBS win? Sluka was one-foot-on-the-sidelines short of single handedly beating BC at Chestnut Hill.

Harvard is a really good team, by the way. Unfortunately, their parochial schedules don't make that altogether clear.

[Professor Chaos]

How many at-large candidates have an FBS or P5 win?
SIU and Sac St do as far as bubble teams. Idaho does as well but they're nowhere near the bubble.

In my opinion FBS losses shouldn't necessarily hurt you but they shouldn't help you either although they can hurt you indirectly by taking away a chance to get an extra FCS win.

[crusader11]

Why should I be impressed with NC Central?

Look at their schedule and wins closer. Non-D1 win over Winston Salem State, bad loss to Howard, and exactly one win over a team with a winning record (Elon).

[atthewbon]

I think you have it right. I think it's a coin flip between NDSU and Montana State for the last seed (Though I also wouldn't completely rule out Austin Peay). I think the 24 teams you have in are the 24 most likely. I think UIW might end up making it at the expense of NC Central though I'd lean towards NC Central.

[crusader11]

Holy Cross lost to Army in the final two minutes and lost in overtime to BC and Lafayette. What more did they have to do?

Win one of these four games. Go 8-3 and I think HC is very nearly “safely” in.

If the committee sees value in very close losses to two FBS opponents (one a P5 who’s going to a bowl game and another who owns a win over top 25 Air Force) and a decently strong SOS, HC has a better chance at an at large than I thought.

Personally, I don’t think they deserve it.

[atthewbon]

I just posted this in the playoff prognostication thread:


Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Last 4 in: Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central.
First 4 Out: UC Davis, Sacramento State, UT Martin, Incarnate Word



Holy **** is the bubble TOUGH this year!!

If the committee looks favorably on the SOCON this year. I think the bubble ends up looking like this. However, I think they don't and that 2 SOCON bids is more likely than 4.

[crusader11]

I think you have it right. I think it's a coin flip between NDSU and Montana State for the last seed (Though I also wouldn't completely rule out Austin Peay). I think the 24 teams you have in are the 24 most likely. I think UIW might end up making it at the expense of NC Central though I'd lean towards NC Central.

Neither should make it.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I know Holy Cross fans love their regional FBS games (ego) but the reality is, scheduling two of them is dumb. The odds of winning are clearly very small so this scheduling practice is doing nothing more than accepting extra $$ for a decreasing margin of error when it comes to making the playoffs. While scheduling a complete dud (Valpo or Marist for example) might not have made a difference, a middling to bad CAA or SoCon team likely would have got them over the hump at 8-3. Even a .500'ish NEC team would have helped imo.

With this said, based on what I've seen today, Holy Cross would fill out the bracket just as well as some of these other potential at-large teams. While they clearly have flaws, I think they would be a tougher out than 2-3 at large teams will prove to be....

[Chalupa Batman]

If the committee looks favorably on the SOCON this year. I think the bubble ends up looking like this. However, I think they don't and that 2 SOCON bids is more likely than 4.

I could've looked at it all night between the two BSC teams and the two SoCon teams and I still don't know if I would've made up my mind. UC Davis has 2 bad losses (NAU & EWU) which knocked them behind WCU & UTC (who only have 1 bad loss each) for me, which also knocks Sac State behind them also since they are behind Davis.

[DFW HOYA]

Win one of these four games. Go 8-3 and I think HC is very nearly “safely” in.

If the committee sees value in very close losses to two FBS opponents (one a P5 who’s going to a bowl game and another who owns a win over top 25 Air Force) and a decently strong SOS, HC has a better chance at an at large than I thought.

Personally, I don’t think they deserve it.

8-3 means something at Holy Cross because it has a brand. I recall the 2011 season when Georgetown was 8-3 and there was absolutely, positively no chance for an at-large bid. Less than zero.

[crusader11]

8-3 means something at Holy Cross because it has a brand. I recall the 2011 season when Georgetown was 8-3 and there was absolutely, positively no chance for an at-large bid. Less than zero.

That was when the field was 20 teams. Big difference.

Beating Wagner, Howard, Davidson, and Marist in the OOC is pretty different than three point losses against Boston College and Army, blowout wins over Yale and Merrimack, and losing to the Ivy champs.

[crusader11]

I know Holy Cross fans love their regional FBS games (ego) but the reality is, scheduling two of them is dumb. The odds of winning are clearly very small so this scheduling practice is doing nothing more than accepting extra $$ for a decreasing margin of error when it comes to making the playoffs. While scheduling a complete dud (Valpo or Marist for example) might not have made a difference, a middling to bad CAA or SoCon team likely would have got them over the hump at 8-3. Even a .500'ish NEC team would have helped imo.

With this said, based on what I've seen today, Holy Cross would fill out the bracket just as well as some of these other potential at-large teams. While they clearly have flaws, I think they would be a tougher out than 2-3 at large teams will prove to be....

As you know, FBS games are scheduled years in advance. When these games were scheduled, not sure HC was thinking about positioning themselves for FCS playoffs.

Anyways, give me the Army and BC games over a total snooze or a Saturday afternoon against Marist or CCSU. No brainer.

[grizband]

8-3 means something at Holy Cross because it has a brand. I recall the 2011 season when Georgetown was 8-3 and there was absolutely, positively no chance for an at-large bid. Less than zero.
Does Holy Cross have a brand name on the East Coast, yes. Does that translate into the entire landscape of FCS football? No, not for several years.

[Go...gate]

Win one of these four games. Go 8-3 and I think HC is very nearly “safely” in.

If the committee sees value in very close losses to two FBS opponents (one a P5 who’s going to a bowl game and another who owns a win over top 25 Air Force) and a decently strong SOS, HC has a better chance at an at large than I thought.

Personally, I don’t think they deserve it.

For the benefit of our conference, I hope they get in.

[caribbeanhen]

Sluka has brand, get that man in the playoffs

[POD Knows]

Holy Cross lost to Army in the final two minutes and lost in overtime to BC and Lafayette. What more did they have to do?
Maybe beat somebody.

[Gil Dobie]

I would bracket it like this but doubt it will happen. 4 teams ahead of NDSU in the Stats poll lost, so that is why I have them 5, up from 9.


Drake
1 SDSU


Richmond







MSU
8 Nova


Austin Peay







Lafayette
5 NDSU


UCD







Mercer
6 Albany


UND







Nichols
2 Montana


YSU







NCCU
7 Furman


Delaware







Gardner Webb
3 USD


Sac St







Duquesne
4 Idaho


SIU






Last 4 in - UCD, Richmond, NCCU, YSU


Last 4 out - WCU, Chatty, ICW, UT-Martin

[Utgrizfan]

I would bracket it like this but doubt it will happen. 4 teams ahead of NDSU in the Stats poll lost, so that is why I have them 5, up from 9.


Drake
1 SDSU


Richmond







MSU
8 Nova


Austin Peay







Lafayette
5 NDSU


Sac St







Mercer
6 Albany


UND







Nichols
2 Montana


YSU







NCCU
7 Furman


Delaware







Gardner Webb
3 USD


Sac St







Duquesne
4 Idaho


SIU






Last 4 in - UCD, Richmond, NCCU, YSU


Last 4 out - WCU, Chatty, ICW, UT-Martin




You have sacramento state listed twice

[Utgrizfan]

For me:

SEEDS:

1) SDSU
2) Montana
3) USD
4) Albany
5) Idaho
6) Villanova
7) Furman
8) Montana State

Montana State has a better SoS then NDSU so they get the last seed. The remaining teams:

AQ:

Nicholls
Drake
Lafayette
Austin Peay
Gardner Webb
Duquesne

AT LARGE:

NDSU
YSU
UND
Mercer
Delaware
Richmond

The last 4 spots are really tricky but went with these:

Sac State: Big P5 FBS Win
UIW: 8-1 vs FCS (Don't know how they'll treat a Forfeit)
NCCU: 8-1 vs FCS
SIU: FBS Win and beat Austin Peay

[salukis1993]

Just don't get the love for NCC. Played no one.

[Chalupa Batman]

UIW: 8-1 vs FCS (Don't know how they'll treat a Forfeit)


UIW has a sub D1 win so they only have 7 FCS wins.

[POD Knows]

For me:

SEEDS:

1) SDSU
2) Montana
3) USD
4) Albany
5) Idaho
6) Villanova
7) Furman
8) Montana State

Montana State has a better SoS then NDSU so they get the last seed. The remaining teams:

AQ:

Nicholls
Drake
Lafayette
Austin Peay
Gardner Webb
Duquesne

AT LARGE:

NDSU
YSU
UND
Mercer
Delaware
Richmond

The last 4 spots are really tricky but went with these:

Sac State: Big P5 FBS Win
UIW: 8-1 vs FCS (Don't know how they'll treat a Forfeit)
NCCU: 8-1 vs FCS
SIU: FBS Win and beat Austin Peay
Montana State has one win against a ranked team as near as I can tell, they really haven't beaten anybody outside Sac State. I don't care what their SOS is, they lost to virtually every ranked team they played. They are not a slam dunk for a seed at all.

[Wolffan]

Holy Cross lost to Army in the final two minutes and lost in overtime to BC and Lafayette. What more did they have to do?Holy Cross had 4 losses (none of them in overtime). Losing to Harvard and Lafayette, both at home, means they failed to win any quality games. Their wins over weak Lehigh (by 4) and weak Fordham (by 2). were particularly unimpressive.

[Gil Dobie]

You have sacramento state listed twice

Thanks, one should have been UCD

[Utgrizfan]

Montana State has one win against a ranked team as near as I can tell, they really haven't beaten anybody outside Sac State. I don't care what their SOS is, they lost to virtually every ranked team they played. They are not a slam dunk for a seed at all.

Oh it for sure could go either way, after comparing both the Cats and NDSUs resumes they are very similar but when breaking it down:

-Both have a blowout loss, MSU to #3 Montana, NDSU to #13 UND. (ADV. MSU)

-Both have a loss to a Top 10 ranked team, MSU @ Idaho, NDSU vs South Dakota. (ADV. MSU, Road vs Home loss)

-Both lost to SDSU, MSU almost won the game on the last play, NDSU got slammed. (ADV. MSU)

-NDSU only beat 3 teams with a winning record, MSU only beat 2. (ADV. NDSU)

-Since ranked wins matter at the time the game is played according to the Committee MSU has 2 Top 10 ranked wins (Weber and Sac State) while NDSU has 0 but did get ranked wins over SIU and UNI. (ADV. MSU)

These are just a few reasons why I have MSU over NDSU and I have both of them ahead of Austin Peay.

[UNHWildcat18]

If the committee looks favorably on the SOCON this year. I think the bubble ends up looking like this. However, I think they don't and that 2 SOCON bids is more likely than 4.
I don’t see them getting more than 3. The bottom 4 teams and the socon are what? Like 10-34 combined

[2wagriz]

Wow! You did a really good job with this. Thank you! That's a solid bracket

[gofurman]

Sluka has brand, get that man in the playoffs

Caribbean is a good man. I think you served in military? If so I appreciate it!

however, here I must disagree. Brand schmand . It’s a TEAM GAME. WIN to get in.

Shadeur Sanders has a brand and Colorado isn’t going anywhere post season. Just because you are an exciting player doesn’t mean your team should be in playoffs. Rightly so Colorado will be sitting home in a week. TEAM GAME. Have to win enough games. Can’t change rules for an electric player. I don’t see a rule that says “exceptions can be made for highlight reel players”. If they are so good then win more games

[gofurman]

If the committee looks favorably on the SOCON this year. I think the bubble ends up looking like this. However, I think they don't and that 2 SOCON bids is more likely than 4.

im a SoCon guy and have to agree. I think it’s 2 or 3 teams. The shame of western losing their qb today in last game changed everything…. Hate that. Furman playing without starting qb and all conference RB couldnt complete many passes as freshman throws were at ankles or missing wide open receivers. He (freshman qb) lead a great comeback last minute win over UTC for conference title and lit up VMI for outright SoCon titke but came back to earth today.

I sincerely hope all teams are pretty healthy in playoffs. Ndsu had the injury bug last year unfortunately

[Chalupa Batman]

Wow! You did a really good job with this. Thank you! That's a solid bracket

Which one? :D

[NY Crusader 2010]

Win one of these four games. Go 8-3 and I think HC is very nearly “safely” in.

If the committee sees value in very close losses to two FBS opponents (one a P5 who’s going to a bowl game and another who owns a win over top 25 Air Force) and a decently strong SOS, HC has a better chance at an at large than I thought.

Personally, I don’t think they deserve it.

These are predominantly my thoughts as well. Beat Lafayette and we're the PL auto. Beat Army or BC and we're almost definitely an at-large.

Only one 8-3 at-large team has ever come out of the PL (2005 Lafayette) and we would have been the 2nd if one of those FBS game results were flipped. 7-4 out of the PL is a bridge too far, even with 2 close FBS losses.

[crusader11]

For me:

UIW: 8-1 vs FCS (Don't know how they'll treat a Forfeit)
NCCU: 8-1 vs FCS


FCS record alone isn’t a good enough reason.

Who you play matters.

There have been years where a PFL or NEC team has gone 9-1 against the FCS. Does that, alone, mean they should get in?

I don’t think either team’s resume is all that impressive, but I’d take NC Central over UIW in a heartbeat. UIW has done absolutely nothing that’s been noteworthy this season.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Holy Cross had 4 losses (none of them in overtime). Losing to Harvard and Lafayette, both at home, means they failed to win any quality games. Their wins over weak Lehigh (by 4) and weak Fordham (by 2). were particularly unimpressive.

I don't think the close margins in these games matter so much. You mention that we failed to win any quality games with 4 losses -- that's what ultimately will do us in. Yale COULD be viewed as a quality win after yesterday, but its borderline.

Speaking of Fordham, did their entire offense go on strike after our game? That being said, their defense seems to have had a strong finish to the season, much like ours. The Fordham-Colgate game was 0-0 at half yesterday.

[NY Crusader 2010]

FCS record alone isn’t a good enough reason.

Who you play matters.

There have been years where a PFL or NEC team has gone 9-1 against the FCS. Does that, alone, mean they should get in?

I don’t think either team’s resume is all that impressive, but I’d take NC Central over UIW in a heartbeat. UIW has done absolutely nothing that’s been noteworthy this season.

Perhaps the committee will end up viewing these teams in the same lens as they viewed the 2012 Lehigh team that went 10-1 and didn't get in.

I think NCCU is 100% a lock. The NCAA will want to keep the MEAC involved in the playoffs whenever they have the chance. I wouldn't mind seeing Incarnate Word stay home.

[caribbeanhen]

Caribbean is a good man. I think you served in military? If so I appreciate it!

however, here I must disagree. Brand schmand . It’s a TEAM GAME. WIN to get in.

Shadeur Sanders has a brand and Colorado isn’t going anywhere post season. Just because you are an exciting player doesn’t mean your team should be in playoffs. Rightly so Colorado will be sitting home in a week. TEAM GAME. Have to win enough games. Can’t change rules for an electric player. I don’t see a rule that says “exceptions can be made for highlight reel players”. If they are so good then win more games

I totally agree with you but you never know what the committee will do, that was kind of a Hail Mary for Holy Cross and and a very fun player to watch in Sluka

[WileECoyote06]

Autos:
Big Sky - Montana
Big South-OVC - Gardner-Webb
CAA - Villanova
Missouri Valley - South Dakota St
Northeast - Duquesne
Patriot - Lafayette
Pioneer - Drake
SoCon - Furman
Southland - Nicholl's St
UAC - Austin Peay

At-large -
Big Sky (3) - Montana State, Idaho, Sacramento State
CAA (3) - Albany, Richmond, Delaware
MVFC (4) - South Dakota, Southern Illinois, North Dakota St, North Dakota
Patriot (1) - Holy Cross
SoCon (1) - Mercer
Southland (1) - Incarnate Word
MEAC (1) - NC Central

Last Four in: Delaware, Incarnate Word, NC Central, Holy Cross
First Four out: UT-Martin, Western Carolina, Youngstown State, UT-Chattanooga
Next out: UC-Davis, Eastern Illinois

Games:

NC Central @ Richmond to 1 South Dakota State
Gardner-Webb @ Mercer to 8 Furman
Incarnate Word @ Sacramento State to 4 Idaho
Holy Cross @ Delaware to 5 Albany

Nicholls State @ North Dakota to 2 Montana
Lafayette @ Duquesne to 7 Villanova
Southern Illinois @ Austin Peay to 3 South Dakota
Drake @Montana State to 6 North Dakota State

[ncspiderfan]

One thing to think about as you guys guess at your brackets. If Richmond gets in (and I think they will with a six-game win streak to end the season). The CAA scheduling being what it is, the Spiders have not played Nova or Albany. If those teams are seeded, Spiders could well play into either (probably Nova a bus ride). Delaware vs Richmond first week is also possible as they have not played (another bus ride), the only thing about that one is I know Richmond made a nice bid and I would hope Delaware did, so they could both well end up hosting first round.

[Professor Chaos]

At-large -
Big Sky (3) - Montana State, Idaho, Sacramento State
CAA (3) - Albany, Richmond, Delaware
MVFC (4) - South Dakota, Southern Illinois, North Dakota St, North Dakota
Patriot (1) - Holy Cross
SoCon (1) - Mercer
Southland (1) - Incarnate Word
MEAC (1) - NC Central

Last Four in: Delaware, Incarnate Word, NC Central, Holy Cross
First Four out: UT-Martin, Western Carolina, Youngstown State, UT-Chattanooga
Next out: UC-Davis, Eastern Illinois
YSU would feel pretty snubbed if this happened considering they smoked SIU 31-3, have the same overall record, and a better conference record. SIU does have much better OOC wins though. Still, I think if any 7-4 MVFC team is left out it's probably SIU.

[Houndawg]

I just posted this in the playoff prognostication thread:


Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Last 4 in: Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central.
First 4 Out: UC Davis, Sacramento State, UT Martin, Incarnate Word



Holy **** is the bubble TOUGH this year!!

I think they'll feed the MVFC to each other early

- - - Updated - - -


I just posted this in the playoff prognostication thread:


Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Last 4 in: Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central.
First 4 Out: UC Davis, Sacramento State, UT Martin, Incarnate Word



Holy **** is the bubble TOUGH this year!!

I think they'll feed the MVFC to each other early

[mvemjsunpx]

Is everyone just assuming Richmond gets in safely just because they're an 8-3 CAA team? I suppose that could be true depending on how superficial the committee is, but it really shouldn't be the case.

The Spiders have 2 bad losses (Morgan, Hampton by 3 scores), just 1 marginally good win (Elon), and they didn't play Albany, Villanova, Delaware, or New Hampshire. xeyebrowx

[WileECoyote06]

The committee seems to put a premium on FBS wins, wins over other conference champions and road OOC wins. SIU has all three, which if SIU and Youngstown are being directly compared, might negate the h-2-h results. This boils down to Youngstown's OOC scheduling.

[Pard4Life]

Lafayette is going to get sent to a CAA school - my money is on Delaware or Richmond, assuming that Albany and Villanova get byes - with our game's winner playing one of those byes. Really have a hard time envisioning another scenario given the regional proximity. Only possible other surprise is giving LC a home game with Duquesne. What would have been interesting was if Lafayette did not fart away the Colgate game, we are 10-1, and in line for a potential seed? Only loss would have been Duke.

Really hoping Holy Cross makes it but not optimistic... the Harvard loss is probably the dagger.

[WileECoyote06]

Is everyone just assuming Richmond gets in safely just because they're an 8-3 CAA team? I suppose that could be true depending on how superficial the committee is, but it really shouldn't be the case.

The Spiders have 2 bad losses (Morgan, Hampton by 3 scores), just 1 marginally good win (Elon), and they didn't play Albany, Villanova, Delaware, or New Hampshire. xeyebrowx

Their saving grace is a long winning streak and wins at William and Mary and Rhode Island. If Richmond lost at W&M, they probably don't get in at 7-4. Considering the end of that game, Richmond is lucky.

[Chalupa Batman]

One thing to think about as you guys guess at your brackets. If Richmond gets in (and I think they will with a six-game win streak to end the season). The CAA scheduling being what it is, the Spiders have not played Nova or Albany. If those teams are seeded, Spiders could well play into either (probably Nova a bus ride). Delaware vs Richmond first week is also possible as they have not played (another bus ride), the only thing about that one is I know Richmond made a nice bid and I would hope Delaware did, so they could both well end up hosting first round.

This is all assuming Albany & Villanova are both seeded.

There are only 3 bus trips up to the Great Danes: Lafayette, Delaware, & Villanova. With 'Nova seeded, it seems like a slam dunk to me that Lafayette is going to play Delaware in the first round with the winner playing Albany.

If Youngstown gets in I think they play Duquesne with the winner going to Villanova as Duquesne & Villanova are the only bus trips for the Penguins. If Youngstown doesn't get in and Richmond does, I think the Spiders play Duquesne with the winner going to Villanova.

Of course, all this is predicated on Albany & Villanova being seeded on opposite sides of the bracket. If they end up #'s 6&7 and on the same side of the bracket, the CAA teams would have to get split up so Richmond might get bracketed to Furman after their first round game or fly out west.

[mvemjsunpx]

Their saving grace is a long winning streak and wins at William and Mary and Rhode Island. If Richmond had lost at W&M, they probably don't get in at 7-4. Considering the end of that game, Richmond is lucky.

This is all true, although I'm not sure how much wins over W&M and Rhody are worth at this point.

Eastern Illinois is also 8-3, and even their SoS rank is 29 spots higher than Richmond's according to Sagarin (those numbers haven't been updated with 11/18 results, but still…). I wouldn't put EIU in, of course, but I'm not sure Richmond's resume is much—if any—better.

[Chalupa Batman]

Lafayette is going to get sent to a CAA school - my money is on Delaware or Richmond, assuming that Albany and Villanova get byes - with our game's winner playing one of those byes. Really have a hard time envisioning another scenario given the regional proximity. Only possible other surprise is giving LC a home game with Duquesne. What would have been interesting was if Lafayette did not fart away the Colgate game, we are 10-1, and in line for a potential seed? Only loss would have been Duke.

Really hoping Holy Cross makes it but not optimistic... the Harvard loss is probably the dagger.

Lafayette playing Delaware with the winner going to Albany seems like the easiest thing in the field to predict to me.

[TrooperCoats]

Oh it for sure could go either way, after comparing both the Cats and NDSUs resumes they are very similar but when breaking it down:

-Both have a blowout loss, MSU to #3 Montana, NDSU to #13 UND. (ADV. MSU)

-Both have a loss to a Top 10 ranked team, MSU @ Idaho, NDSU vs South Dakota. (ADV. MSU, Road vs Home loss)

-Both lost to SDSU, MSU almost won the game on the last play, NDSU got slammed. (ADV. MSU)

-NDSU only beat 3 teams with a winning record, MSU only beat 2. (ADV. NDSU)

-Since ranked wins matter at the time the game is played according to the Committee MSU has 2 Top 10 ranked wins (Weber and Sac State) while NDSU has 0 but did get ranked wins over SIU and UNI. (ADV. MSU)

These are just a few reasons why I have MSU over NDSU and I have both of them ahead of Austin Peay.
I think it comes down to who you think would beat who. I could put together a similar list of USD over Montana, but most everyone believes UM would win if they played, and thus the lens you look through confirms the original thought. BSC's ranked wins/bad losses assumed 4 teams that were T10 worthy. Honestly, I don't "believe" that is true, and if the top four MVFC played the top four BSC, I think the Valley would look pretty good, even though only SDSU would actually be ranked higher than their opponent.
That said, if NDSU played MSU today, I think NDSU would win.

[Houndawg]

YSU would feel pretty snubbed if this happened considering they smoked SIU 31-3, have the same overall record, and a better conference record. SIU does have much better OOC wins though. Still, I think if any 7-4 MVFC team is left out it's probably SIU.

The SOS giveth and the SOS taketh away - if our o line gets healed we'll surprise people if we get in because we have a defense that can keep us in any game if they don't have to spend 40 minutes on the field as with NDSU. Razor-thin losses to two other Top 5 teams and a win over Austin Peay who will be Top 10 this week, an FBS win, granted a weak MAC team but but one that did beat BC on the road. YSU is a bad loss, but most teams have one - YSU was smoked by the Jacks 34-0, lost to UNI and avoided the Bison. SIU didn't load up on patsys for the preseason plus has stronger SOS and Massey ratings - yes I would be butthurt if I were an YSU fan and they were left out, but it would be easily defensible if it happened. SIU's issue is who they can put on the field right now not their body of work vs that of the other bubble teams I think.

[crusader11]

Lafayette playing Delaware with the winner going to Albany seems like the easiest thing in the field to predict to me.

Is this assuming Villanova is a seed? Other regional teams in the Delaware / PA area are Duquesne and Nova, so they could factor in.

[Chalupa Batman]

Is this assuming Villanova is a seed? Other regional teams in the Delaware / PA area are Duquesne and Nova, so they could factor in.

I’m assuming Villanova is seeded. If not Lafayette could play Villanova instead with the winner going to Albany, but it makes more sense to have the Pards play Delaware with the winner going to Albany since the Hens & Danes didn’t play in the regular season while the Wildcats & Danes did.

[crusader11]

I’m assuming Villanova is seeded. If not Lafayette could play Villanova instead with the winner going to Albany, but it makes more sense to have the Pards play Delaware with the winner going to Albany since the Hens & Danes didn’t play in the regular season while the Wildcats & Danes did.

That makes sense to me.

And that means Duquesne, being in Western PA, likely goes to Youngstown (should they get in). That's a logical match-up (76 miles apart).

[Chalupa Batman]

That makes sense to me.

And that means Duquesne, being in Western PA, likely goes to Youngstown (should they get in). That's a logical match-up (76 miles apart).

That’s exactly what I have, Duquesne/Youngstown with the winner going to Villanova as Philly is the only bus trip among seeded teams for those 2 teams.

[Digby]

Not lose to one PL and one Ivy team. Too many other teams has stronger schedules.

[Chalupa Batman]

I just posted this in the playoff prognostication thread:


Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Montana State/Drake @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman


Last 4 in: Southern Illinois, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, North Carolina Central.
First 4 Out: UC Davis, Sacramento State, UT Martin, Incarnate Word



Holy **** is the bubble TOUGH this year!!

After thinking about this a little more, I would swap the Mercer/North Carolina Central and the Montana State/Drake matchups. Montana State to Idaho is a flight, so if the Bobcats are getting on a plane anyway it makes sense to send them to Fargo to set up an unofficial 8/9 game, plus it avoids the Vandals/Bobcats rematch.


That would make the bracket look like this instead:

Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Montana State/Drake @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman

[crusader11]

Not loose to one PL and one Ivy team. Too many other teams has stronger schedules.

SOS for Holy Cross is 41, which is better than many other bubble teams.

[Grizzlies82]

Always interesting to visit this site. Almost every fan believes their conference is stronger (more worthy?) than most of the rest of the country might believe. Often this is based upon how they beat such and such team within their own conference. So how many should the SoCon, CAA, MVFC, or Big Sky get into the playoffs, or be awarded a seed? The answer seems to vary greatly depending on your geographic location.

If you what to know the true answer just ask me. I have perfect perspective sitting here in Big Sky country.

Curious to see how the committee decides this morning. Suspect they will present the bracket I emailed to them last night. xnodx

[taper]

SOS for Holy Cross is 41, which is better than many other bubble teams.
SOS only matters if you win some of the hard games. Even calling Harvard a good loss because they beat HC is circular reasoning.

[crusader11]

SOS only matters if you win some of the hard games. Even calling Harvard a good loss because they beat HC is circular reasoning.

Fully agree.

It’s not a good situation to be in when you hope the committee values “close FBS losses” more than wins for other bubble teams.

[MR. CHICKEN]

33179........YET?

[crusader11]

I think it would be unprecedented for an 8 win team out of the CAA to not receive a bid, but I'm not fully sold on Richmond. They're probably going to be on the right side of the bubble, but have bad losses to Morgan State and Hampton. They also had a VERY easy CAA schedule this year, avoiding Albany, Villanova, and Delaware; their SOS is 79th.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I think it would be unprecedented for an 8 win team out of the CAA to not receive a bid, but I'm not fully sold on Richmond. They're probably going to be on the right side of the bubble, but have bad losses to Morgan State and Hampton. They also had a VERY easy CAA schedule this year, avoiding Albany, Villanova, and Delaware; their SOS is 79th.


AIN'T TO MANY.....WHOM....DIDN'T HAVE UH BAD ONE....AWK!

[Utgrizfan]

I think it comes down to who you think would beat who. I could put together a similar list of USD over Montana, but most everyone believes UM would win if they played, and thus the lens you look through confirms the original thought. BSC's ranked wins/bad losses assumed 4 teams that were T10 worthy. Honestly, I don't "believe" that is true, and if the top four MVFC played the top four BSC, I think the Valley would look pretty good, even though only SDSU would actually be ranked higher than their opponent.
That said, if NDSU played MSU today, I think NDSU would win.

I think it's quite possible NDSU could win in a head to head matchup if they played MSU now, but i think who the Home team was would have the advantage in that matchup and probably win. Regardless the Committee looks at ranked wins WHEN they happened, like it or not MSU has 2 top 10 wins which I think will be a factor

[Gil Dobie]

I think it's quite possible NDSU could win in a head to head matchup if they played MSU now, but i think who the Home team was would have the advantage in that matchup and probably win. Regardless the Committee looks at ranked wins WHEN they happened, like it or not MSU has 2 top 10 wins which I think will be a factor

They both have one win vs the field if Sac St and SIU are in.

[fencer24]

Idaho as the #4? WTH?

[Sitting Bull]

I think it would be unprecedented for an 8 win team out of the CAA to not receive a bid, but I'm not fully sold on Richmond. They're probably going to be on the right side of the bubble, but have bad losses to Morgan State and Hampton. They also had a VERY easy CAA schedule this year, avoiding Albany, Villanova, and Delaware; their SOS is 79th.

Except Richmond is on a 7 game win streak

[Sader87]

Sour grapes but give me games at BC and at Army all day over being in the playoffs.

[WileECoyote06]

Haslam paraphrased: FBS wins and wins over Conference champions help your resume. Road wins OOC count.

[Chalupa Batman]

After thinking about this a little more, I would swap the Mercer/North Carolina Central and the Montana State/Drake matchups. Montana State to Idaho is a flight, so if the Bobcats are getting on a plane anyway it makes sense to send them to Fargo to set up an unofficial 8/9 game, plus it avoids the Vandals/Bobcats rematch.


That would make the bracket look like this instead:

Western Carolina/Austin Peay @ #1 South Dakota State
Montana State/Drake @ #8 North Dakota State

Delaware/Lafayette @ #4 Albany
Mercer/North Carolina Central @ #5 Idaho

North Dakota/Nicholls @ #3 South Dakota
Youngstown State/Duquesne @ #6 Villanova

Southern Illinois/Chattanooga @ #2 Montana
Richmond/Gardner-Webb @ #7 Furman

13/14 at-larges, not too bad. Had WCU in instead of Sac State. I thought NDSU/MSU for the 8 seed was a coinflip so 7/8 seeds isn't too bad either. Still not sure how the Bobcats got #6 though.

[SDFS]

How did NCC make the field?

[CHIP72]

Semi-OT comment that I want to post somewhere on the main board; this thread is probably the best spot.

Two-time defending D2 national champ Ferris State lost in the 1st round of this year's D2 playoffs 21-14 at conference rival Grand Valley State in a matchup of top 5 D2 teams. As some of you may remember, Montana played Ferris State during the regular season and the Griz only won by 7 points (and were outgained yardage-wise for the game).

I bring up that game for two reasons:

1) It shows that beating really good D2 teams are good wins for DI-AA/FCS playoff contenders.

2) As bad as the DI-AA/FCS playoff bracket sometimes is in terms of matchups and competitive imbalance, at least the NCAA doesn't dick over teams like they sometimes can do in D2 (and for that matter, D3). D2's regional playoff format (it uses four Super Regions based on geography and the champions of the Super Regions then play in the national semifinals) and the strength of D2 SR3 (at least a couple of the top D2 conferences are in that region), plus the facts that 1) GVSU beat FSU in the regular season and 2) Ferris State got a loss by playing Montana meant that Ferris State wasn't even a top four seed in SR3, even though they were ranked #5 nationally (Grand Valley State was #2 nationally). It was absolutely ridiculous that Ferris State was essentially penalized for playing and narrowly losing to the #2 team in DI-AA/FCS, and that GVSU and FSU had to play in the 1st round of the playoffs.

I just wanted to mention that somewhere on here.

[Libertine]

Semi-OT comment that I want to post somewhere on the main board; this thread is probably the best spot.

Two-time defending D2 national champ Ferris State lost in the 1st round of this year's D2 playoffs 21-14 at conference rival Grand Valley State in a matchup of top 5 D2 teams. As some of you may remember, Montana played Ferris State during the regular season and the Griz only won by 7 points (and were outgained yardage-wise for the game).

I bring up that game for two reasons:

1) It shows that beating really good D2 teams are good wins for DI-AA/FCS playoff contenders.

2) As bad as the DI-AA/FCS playoff bracket sometimes is in terms of matchups and competitive imbalance, at least the NCAA doesn't dick over teams like they sometimes can do in D2 (and for that matter, D3). D2's regional playoff format (it uses four Super Regions based on geography and the champions of the Super Regions then play in the national semifinals) and the strength of D2 SR3 (at least a couple of the top D2 conferences are in that region), plus the facts that 1) GVSU beat FSU in the regular season and 2) Ferris State got a loss by playing Montana meant that Ferris State wasn't even a top four seed in SR3, even though they were ranked #5 nationally (Grand Valley State was #2 nationally). It was absolutely ridiculous that Ferris State was essentially penalized for playing and narrowly losing to the #2 team in DI-AA/FCS, and that GVSU and FSU had to play in the 1st round of the playoffs.

I just wanted to mention that somewhere on here.

Oh, it gets better. Ferris State was also playing this game without their head coach as he was suspended for one playoff game after allowing his players to light up victory cigars in the locker room immediately following their winning the 2022 national championship. The cigars didn't violate an NCAA rule but, rather, the local stadium ordinance where the championship game was played.

[Gil Dobie]

Had UCD in and Chatty out, and NDSU a Seed instead of MSU, close.

[SDFS]

Had UCD in and Chatty out, and NDSU a Seed instead of MSU, close.


So, how do you rationalize NCC as an at large?

[BlueGoldAg]

Bob Dunning of the Davis Enterprise had this to say about UC Davis being left out of the playoffs:



Head-to-head results are considered the gold standard when selecting teams for post-season play or to break ties in awarding automatic bids, but for some reason, the selection committee turned a blind eye to Saturday's Aggie victory.

Apparently, order of finish in one of the strongest conferences in the country was also irrelevant to committee members.

Getting screwed by the selection committee two years in a row is tough to take. Hard to imagine how tough this is on the Aggie players and coaches especially the graduating seniors.

[Paladin1aa]

Bob Dunning of the Davis Enterprise had this to say about UC Davis being left out of the playoffs:


Getting screwed by the selection committee two years in a row is tough to take. Hard to imagine how tough this is on the Aggie players and coaches especially the graduating seniors.

Try getting screwed over 4 times. The corrupt committee regularly changes the rules And worse, they apply them for some years and not for others. Our team this year got in. We are decent. But at least 2 and maybe 3 of our teams were way better than this years but didn’t get in and they changed the reasons to cover their arse. The process has politics involved. Remember this year and the process.

This division is a mess. Abuse in the autos. Uneven criteria for at large. Seeding and regionalization. Some are not always in as they opt not to participate or play in another “bowl”. The grand illusion.

[MUMD]

Try getting screwed over 4 times. The corrupt committee regularly changes the rules And worse, they apply them for some years and not for others. Our team this year got in. We are decent. But at least 2 and maybe 3 of our teams were way better than this years but didn’t get in and they changed the reasons to cover their arse.

IMHO Mercer was a better team last year but got left out. In fact we've been on the bubble 3 years running and it FINALLY fell our way.

[Gil Dobie]

So, how do you rationalize NCC as an at large?

Compared to Who? They beat an Elon team that finished 6-2 in the CAA. Played them as tough as the other CAA playoff teams, except Delaware lost to Elon.