AGS Poll Results 2023 Wk10

[AGSPoll]

11/6/2023



Rank
Team:
Total Points
First Place Votes


1
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
1225
49


2
Furman Paladins
1117



3
Idaho Vandals
1111



4
Montana Grizzlies
1090



5
Montana State Bobcats
1059



6
South Dakota Coyotes
976



7
Sac State Hornets
744



8
Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
728



9
Villanova Wildcats
716



10
North Carolina Central Eagles
677



11
Southern Illinois Salukis
663



12
Albany Great Danes
631



13
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
559



14
North Dakota State Bison
550



15
Northern Iowa Panthers
544



16
Chattanooga Mocs
536



17
Youngstown State Penguins
532



18
Western Carolina Catamounts
447



19
Austin Peay Governors
359



20
Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
299



21
Mercer Bears
297



22
Incarnate Word Cardinals
275



23
Florida A&M Rattlers
217



24
Harvard Crimson
128



25
Elon Phoenix
98
















ORV:




26
Lafayette Leopards
90



27
Central Arkansas Bears
55



28
Holy Cross Crusaders
52



29
Tarleton Texans
43



30
Richmond Spiders
40



31
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
27



32
Nicholls Colonels
23



33
Eastern Illinois Panthers
10



34
William & Mary Tribe
5




















































Most Significant Win:
Montana Grizzlies






Most Significant Loss:
Incarnate Word Cardinals

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Professor Chaos is taking care of business in real life so he will post his article a little later than usual.

[crusader11]

My take --

Don't sleep on Samford. They're playing the kind of football we thought they should be playing back in September. Don't think they're going to qualify for an at-large, but believe they're one of the 25 best teams today.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Montana Grizzlies
5: Idaho Vandals
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Albany Great Danes
9: Sac State Hornets
10: Southern Illinois Salukis
11: Chattanooga Mocs
12: Western Carolina Catamounts
13: Youngstown State Penguins
14: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
15: Mercer Bears
16: Villanova Wildcats
17: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
18: North Dakota State Bison
19: North Carolina Central Eagles
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: Harvard Crimson
22: Lafayette Leopards
23: Holy Cross Crusaders
24: Elon Phoenix
25: Samford Bulldogs

[atthewbon]

Here is my ballot. 2-4 are pretty close in my mind, you could interchange them. I think the UAC teams are being a little underrated.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana Grizzlies
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Albany Great Danes
8: Sac State Hornets
9: North Carolina Central Eagles
10: Villanova Wildcats
11: Northern Iowa Panthers
12: Youngstown State Penguins
13: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
14: Southern Illinois Salukis
15: North Dakota State Bison
16: Austin Peay Governors
17: Mercer Bears
18: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
19: Western Carolina Catamounts
20: Florida A&M Rattlers
21: Tarleton Texans
22: Central Arkansas Bears
23: Chattanooga Mocs
24: Incarnate Word Cardinals
25: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

[POD Knows]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Montana Grizzlies
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Sac State Hornets
8: North Carolina Central Eagles
9: Southern Illinois Salukis
10: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
11: Chattanooga Mocs
12: Harvard Crimson
13: Northern Iowa Panthers
14: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
15: Western Carolina Catamounts
16: Mercer Bears
17: Albany Great Danes
18: Villanova Wildcats
19: North Dakota State Bison
20: Incarnate Word Cardinals
21: Florida A&M Rattlers
22: Youngstown State Penguins
23: Austin Peay Governors
24: Elon Phoenix
25: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

POD Knows

The Most Significant Win: Elon Phoenix
The Most Significant Loss: Incarnate Word Cardinals

My top 10 is pretty close to the AGS poll but I have major deviations from 11 to 25, I have basically the same teams but it is a cluster from 11 and down I think

[caribbeanhen]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana Grizzlies
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Harvard Crimson
9: Sac State Hornets
10: Albany Great Danes
11: North Carolina Central Eagles
12: Villanova Wildcats
13: Southern Illinois Salukis
14: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
15: Austin Peay Governors
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: North Dakota State Bison
18: Chattanooga Mocs
19: Youngstown State Penguins
20: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
21: Holy Cross Crusaders
22: Mercer Bears
23: Western Carolina Catamounts
24: Central Arkansas Bears
25: Lafayette Leopards

Caribbeanhen

[caribbeanhen]

Albany 31
Nova. 10

Final

[wapiti]

Why does NC Central receive so much love with only 1 good win?

and Florida AM has no good wins.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Montana Grizzlies
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: North Carolina Central Eagles
8: Sac State Hornets
9: Albany Great Danes
10: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
11: Youngstown State Penguins
12: Chattanooga Mocs
13: Southern Illinois Salukis
14: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
15: Villanova Wildcats
16: Mercer Bears
17: Northern Iowa Panthers
18: Florida A&M Rattlers
19: Western Carolina Catamounts
20: North Dakota State Bison
21: Harvard Crimson
22: Richmond Spiders
23: Austin Peay Governors
24: Incarnate Word Cardinals
25: Tarleton Texans

The Most Significant Win: Montana Grizzlies
The Most Significant Loss: Incarnate Word Cardinals
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Patriot League

[KPSUL]

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/5/2023 8:32:48

Your vote is listed below.


1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana Grizzlies
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Furman Paladins
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Montana State Bobcats
7: Albany Great Danes
8: Villanova Wildcats
9: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
10: Southern Illinois Salukis
11: North Dakota State Bison
12: Sac State Hornets
13: Northern Iowa Panthers
14: North Carolina Central Eagles
15: Chattanooga Mocs
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: Youngstown State Penguins
18: Mercer Bears
19: Incarnate Word Cardinals
20: Elon Phoenix
21: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
22: Austin Peay Governors
23: Western Carolina Catamounts
24: Florida A&M Rattlers
25: Harvard Crimson

KPSUL

The Most Significant Win: Albany Great Danes
The Most Significant Loss: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Colonial Athletic Association

[Dane96]

Albany 31
Nova. 10

Final

This...it's quite appalling all over the place, in every ranking/poll. Albany schedule > Nova schedule. Albany schedule > Delaware schedule. I have less of an issue (more of a complaint) with UD above Albany...but Nova?! Ridiculous.

This is all about pre-disposition of Albany's 11th place poll by the CAA coaches to start the year. On paper, until the UD-Nova matchup, I'd say UD=Albany.

Craziest part of Albany's run: Missing three starting offensive lineman, 2 starting receivers, and a starting safety...plus one other on the two deep. For most of the season.

[crusader11]

Albany should be the highest ranked CAA team.

7-1 against FCS.

Very competitive in their two FBS games.

Smoked Villanova.

Only blemish is a 38-31 road loss to UNH.

This is better than UD, who lost at home to Elon.
Also better than Richmond, who has losses to Hampton and Morgan St.
And, they should be ahead of Nova thanks to the head-to-head win.

It's pretty simple, actually.

[Chalupa Batman]

Albany should be the highest ranked CAA team.

I agree, so at least I got one thing right this week. For your viewing pleasure:

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana Grizzlies
3: Furman Paladins
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: Albany Great Danes
7: South Dakota Coyotes
8: Northern Iowa Panthers
9: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
10: Villanova Wildcats
11: Youngstown State Penguins
12: Southern Illinois Salukis
13: Chattanooga Mocs
14: Mercer Bears
15: North Dakota State Bison
16: Sac State Hornets
17: North Carolina Central Eagles
18: Austin Peay Governors
19: Western Carolina Catamounts
20: Harvard Crimson
21: Florida A&M Rattlers
22: Elon Phoenix
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Lafayette Leopards
25: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs

The Most Significant Win: Elon Phoenix
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards

[Professor Chaos]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-5/

Really soft landing for Delaware only dropping to #8 - not sure what kept them propped up so high considering they're missing a good chunk of the top CAA teams on their schedule but they play Nova in a couple weeks so that'll either validate them or expose them as overranked. I'm still not liking the spread between SIU and YSU considering they now have the same record and YSU whooped them earlier this year - would've liked to see them swapped in the consensus. Same goes with UNI being below UND but it's getting closer at least.

[Professor Chaos]

Here's my crack at it this week:

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana Grizzlies
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Sac State Hornets
8: North Carolina Central Eagles
9: Chattanooga Mocs
10: Northern Iowa Panthers
11: Youngstown State Penguins
12: Albany Great Danes
13: Delaware Fightin Blue Hens
14: Villanova Wildcats
15: Mercer Bears
16: North Dakota State Bison
17: Southern Illinois Salukis
18: Western Carolina Catamounts
19: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
20: Harvard Crimson
21: Austin Peay Governors
22: Elon Phoenix
23: Florida A&M Rattlers
24: Lafayette Leopards
25: Incarnate Word Cardinals

[Preferred Walk-On]

Albany 31
Nova. 10

Final
Exactly!

-----

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/5/2023 5:45:31

Your vote is listed below.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana Grizzlies
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Chattanooga Mocs
9: Southern Illinois Salukis
10: Sac State Hornets
11: Mercer Bears
12: Youngstown State Penguins
13: Albany Great Danes
14: North Dakota State Bison
15: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
16: North Carolina Central Eagles
17: Villanova Wildcats
18: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
19: Western Carolina Catamounts
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: Nicholls Colonels
22: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
23: Elon Phoenix
24: Holy Cross Crusaders
25: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

The Most Significant Win: Montana Grizzlies
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

[smilo]

I have Albany 9, Villanova 10 and Delaware 12... but I do believe the committee gives Villanova/Delaware a seed over Albany.

[Nova09]

This...it's quite appalling all over the place, in every ranking/poll. Albany schedule > Nova schedule. Albany schedule > Delaware schedule. I have less of an issue (more of a complaint) with UD above Albany...but Nova?! Ridiculous.

This is all about pre-disposition of Albany's 11th place poll by the CAA coaches to start the year. On paper, until the UD-Nova matchup, I'd say UD=Albany.

Craziest part of Albany's run: Missing three starting offensive lineman, 2 starting receivers, and a starting safety...plus one other on the two deep. For most of the season.

It's really not appalling at all.

Before I get into why: I agree Albany is better. I would rank Albany ahead if I did rankings. I definitely wouldn't have Nova top 10. I know Albany won the head to head and deservedly so. There are no excuses, but here is context:

Nova played worst game of year. It happens. 5-0 turnover differential. Yeah, "bad teams turn ball over" but that's not Nova, and we have a season of evidence outside 1 game. 6 fumbles is absurd for anyone, losing 3 and holding 3 basically what you expect when fumble that many times.

Through all that, STILL only 17-10 in 4th. Nova ball, fumble in own half, short field td. Ensuing drive, fumble own half, short field td. Suddenly competitive game for 3 qs becomes blowout. Credit Albany, they finished us off when given a chance. But this blowout narrative a hen keeps pushing is disingenuous.

And know how I know it has nothing to do with preseason perceptions? The computers see Nova as better. Again, I don't even agree, I give Albany the edge, but it's not appalling for people here to come Nova on the body of work--the computers sure do.

Want to know what to do about it? Don't get cute scheduling 2 fbs. Your own fault you have an extra loss. You want an eye on playoffs, schedule for it.

[crusader11]

Does Albany get credit for forcing those turnovers?

[smilo]

Want to know what to do about it? Don't get cute scheduling 2 fbs. Your own fault you have an extra loss. You want an eye on playoffs, schedule for it.

The two close FBS games is basically why I have Albany ahead though. Hawaii isn't really an extra loss. Just an extra game where they weren't supposed to be competitive but were any way.

Otherwise agree with your points on the context of the game.

If Villanova beat Albany but lost to UNH (and Albany beat UNH), I don't think this changes the picture significantly. I give the slight edge to UA for proving it twice against the FBS - even if the computers all see it differently.

[ElCid]

Why does NC Central receive so much love with only 1 good win?

and Florida AM has no good wins.

The world wonders. I got em in, but they can't break my top 20 without some actual good wins. Elon is borderline good only due to being inconsistent. If they win out I may raise NCCU, that is if they themselves win out.

[MSUBobcat]

It's really not appalling at all.

Before I get into why: I agree Albany is better. I would rank Albany ahead if I did rankings. I definitely wouldn't have Nova top 10. I know Albany won the head to head and deservedly so. There are no excuses, but here is context:

Nova played worst game of year. It happens. 5-0 turnover differential. Yeah, "bad teams turn ball over" but that's not Nova, and we have a season of evidence outside 1 game. 6 fumbles is absurd for anyone, losing 3 and holding 3 basically what you expect when fumble that many times.

Through all that, STILL only 17-10 in 4th. Nova ball, fumble in own half, short field td. Ensuing drive, fumble own half, short field td. Suddenly competitive game for 3 qs becomes blowout. Credit Albany, they finished us off when given a chance. But this blowout narrative a hen keeps pushing is disingenuous.

And know how I know it has nothing to do with preseason perceptions? The computers see Nova as better. Again, I don't even agree, I give Albany the edge, but it's not appalling for people here to come Nova on the body of work--the computers sure do.

Want to know what to do about it? Don't get cute scheduling 2 fbs. Your own fault you have an extra loss. You want an eye on playoffs, schedule for it.

I, and most here, didn't get to watch the game. Did Albany do nothing to cause the turnovers and it was just Nova doing a FB version of the Bad News Bears and butter fingering the ball away?

I also wouldn't necessarily get too hung up using the computers as a major piece of evidence that one team is better than another... Massey STILL has Weber as a top 20 team and they are a really bad team. They shouldn't be in the top 50. Algorithms aren't gospel.

[ElCid]

This week's poll article: https://thefcswedge.com/ags-poll/ags-poll-week-10-top-25-results-5/

Really soft landing for Delaware only dropping to #8 - not sure what kept them propped up so high considering they're missing a good chunk of the top CAA teams on their schedule but they play Nova in a couple weeks so that'll either validate them or expose them as overranked.

I punished Delaware. The first real challenge they have faced all year and they blew it. Their schedule has been eh. Not worthy of their current rank. They are barely top 15, at this point. That Nova game will be critical.

[ElCid]

I, and most here, didn't get to watch the game. Did Albany do nothing to cause the turnovers and it was just Nova doing a FB version of the Bad News Bears and butter fingering the ball away?

I also wouldn't necessarily get too hung up using the computers as a major piece of evidence that one team is better than another... Massey STILL has Weber as a top 20 team and they are a really bad team. They shouldn't be in the top 50. Algorithms aren't gospel.

Weber is getting all their algorithm love from beating Northern Iowa on the road.

[MSUBobcat]

Weber is getting all their algorithm love from beating Northern Iowa on the road.

And PLAYING in the Big Sky, results of the games be damned. The algorithm gets screwed up by one outlier result (BBQ beating UNI, NAU beating Montana, etc.) and it perpetuates throughout.

[Nova09]

What to make of incarnate word? On the one hand, their founding in 1881 is WAY earlier than I expected, earlier than many ranked ahead of them, even matching unanimous #1.

On the other, they never have reached abilene level ball girl status. Being on the opposite sideline that game is something I don't think they ever recovered from. I could be wrong, I haven't really heard about ball girls in a while, but it seems like the type of thing someone would have mentioned if it was noteworthy.

[Nova09]

I, and most here, didn't get to watch the game. Did Albany do nothing to cause the turnovers and it was just Nova doing a FB version of the Bad News Bears and butter fingering the ball away?

I also wouldn't necessarily get too hung up using the computers as a major piece of evidence that one team is better than another... Massey STILL has Weber as a top 20 team and they are a really bad team. They shouldn't be in the top 50. Algorithms aren't gospel.

Combination. I don't really think there's an fcs team capable of purely causing 6 fumbles by an opposing scholarship fcs. This isn't a bishop sycamore situation. When you fumble that much in one game, and don't have a history or rest of season issue with fumbling, it's flukes.

I'm really not trying to take away from Albany. They won, they deserve it, it's not like we were ever in control and just blew it, they are good. But at the same time, I don't think you can draw any sweeping conclusions about the season when the game is that flukey.

[ElCid]

What to make of incarnate word? On the one hand, their founding in 1881 is WAY earlier than I expected, earlier than many ranked ahead of them, even matching unanimous #1.

On the other, they never have reached abilene level ball girl status. Being on the opposite sideline that game is something I don't think they ever recovered from. I could be wrong, I haven't really heard about ball girls in a while, but it seems like the type of thing someone would have mentioned if it was noteworthy.

Did someone say Abilene and Ball girl? This was one seriously weird thread.

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?160333-Ballgirl-on-the-Abilene-Christian-side&highlight=Ball%20girl

[caribbeanhen]

Exactly!

-----

Hello Preferred Walk-On,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 11/5/2023 5:45:31

Your vote is listed below.

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Montana Grizzlies
4: Idaho Vandals
5: Montana State Bobcats
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Chattanooga Mocs
9: Southern Illinois Salukis
10: Sac State Hornets
11: Mercer Bears
12: Youngstown State Penguins
13: Albany Great Danes
14: North Dakota State Bison
15: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
16: North Carolina Central Eagles
17: Villanova Wildcats
18: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
19: Western Carolina Catamounts
20: Austin Peay Governors
21: Nicholls Colonels
22: Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
23: Elon Phoenix
24: Holy Cross Crusaders
25: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks

The Most Significant Win: Montana Grizzlies
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards
Which Conference Does Your Team Play in?: Missouri Valley Football Conference

No Rattlers! How could you

Just kidding, very nice poll with the exception of?

[Dane96]

It's really not appalling at all.

Before I get into why: I agree Albany is better. I would rank Albany ahead if I did rankings. I definitely wouldn't have Nova top 10. I know Albany won the head to head and deservedly so. There are no excuses, but here is context:

Nova played worst game of year. It happens. 5-0 turnover differential. Yeah, "bad teams turn ball over" but that's not Nova, and we have a season of evidence outside 1 game. 6 fumbles is absurd for anyone, losing 3 and holding 3 basically what you expect when fumble that many times.

Through all that, STILL only 17-10 in 4th. Nova ball, fumble in own half, short field td. Ensuing drive, fumble own half, short field td. Suddenly competitive game for 3 qs becomes blowout. Credit Albany, they finished us off when given a chance. But this blowout narrative a hen keeps pushing is disingenuous.

And know how I know it has nothing to do with preseason perceptions? The computers see Nova as better. Again, I don't even agree, I give Albany the edge, but it's not appalling for people here to come Nova on the body of work--the computers sure do.

Want to know what to do about it? Don't get cute scheduling 2 fbs. Your own fault you have an extra loss. You want an eye on playoffs, schedule for it.

Albany was missing 5 starters, and beat Nova by 21. Are we really having this conversation? Albany's average margin of victory is 17 points in the CAA, two of which came against ranked teams and one of which was against an ORV.

Watch, we go out and fumble the bag against Monmouth or SBU :)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The one team I did not rank this week is UT-Martin (they were 14th in my poll last week) after losing to GWU then escaping a pretty bad Tennessee Tech team in OT. Their last two games, SEMO and Samford, provide two great opportunities to prove their national value and jump back up the rankings.

I look at the OVC-Big South similar to the PL. I think there's 3-4 teams that are generally pretty good to possibly good enough to make a run in the playoffs. However, who that team is, is hard to figure out at times....

[caribbeanhen]

I punished Delaware. The first real challenge they have faced all year and they blew it. Their schedule has been eh. Not worthy of their current rank. They are barely top 15, at this point. That Nova game will be critical.

I did too, every Delaware fan has been saying they are ranked too high.

Now, if they can get some of their big play makers healthy and get the QB situation firmed up and healthy going forward, they could make some noise in the playoffs.

and if they don't, they could lose to Campbell and Nova and miss the playoffs entirely.

[Catbooster]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana Grizzlies
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: Furman Paladins
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Northern Iowa Panthers
8: Albany Great Danes
9: Youngstown State Penguins
10: Southern Illinois Salukis
11: Sac State Hornets
12: Chattanooga Mocs
13: Villanova Wildcats
14: North Carolina Central Eagles
15: Western Carolina Catamounts
16: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
17: North Dakota State Bison
18: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
19: Elon Phoenix
20: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
21: Austin Peay Governors
22: Mercer Bears
23: Tarleton Texans
24: Incarnate Word Cardinals
25: Harvard Crimson

Catbooster

The Most Significant Win: Albany Great Danes
The Most Significant Loss: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

[HensRock]

No Rattlers! How could you

Just kidding, very nice poll with the exception of?

Maybe the Rattlers can work their way back into PWO's good graces with their big test against Lincoln (CA) this Saturday.... or NOT.

Lincoln is an 0-11 Div-II startup program. This is only the 2nd year they have had athletics at the school.
They must have no field to play on because ALL 12 of their games this year are on the road, 8 of which are against FCS schools AND Florida will be the 11th different state they have visited! They have criss-crossed the entire country: Idaho, Colorado, Oregon, California, Texas (2x), CONNECTICUT, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, and now Florida. Not only are they 0-11, but losing by an average of 30 pts/game. Why would a team schedule like this??

[MSUBobcat]

Maybe the Rattlers can work their way back into PWO's good graces with their big test against Lincoln (CA) this Saturday.... or NOT.

Lincoln is an 0-11 Div-II startup program. This is only the 2nd year they have had athletics at the school.
They must have no field to play on because ALL 12 of their games this year are on the road, 8 of which are against FCS schools AND Florida will be the 11th different state they have visited! They have criss-crossed the entire country: Idaho, Colorado, Oregon, California, Texas (2x), CONNECTICUT, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Utah, and now Florida. Not only are they 0-11, but losing by an average of 30 pts/game. Why would a team schedule like this??

You don't listen to the weekly Wedge podcast.....

[caribbeanhen]

You don't listen to the weekly Wedge podcast.....

No

[MSUBobcat]

No

You too? Missing out, IMO. Couple nice podcasts each week talking FCS football. I put it on while driving around. To each their own.

[SeattleCat]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Idaho Vandals
3: Montana State Bobcats
4: Montana Grizzlies
5: South Dakota Coyotes
6: Furman Paladins
7: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
8: North Carolina Central Eagles
9: Albany Great Danes
10: Villanova Wildcats
11: Sac State Hornets
12: Florida A&M Rattlers
13: Austin Peay Governors
14: Youngstown State Penguins
15: Elon Phoenix
16: Chattanooga Mocs
17: North Dakota State Bison
18: Lafayette Leopards
19: Southern Illinois Salukis
20: Mercer Bears
21: Western Carolina Catamounts
22: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
23: Central Arkansas Bears
24: Harvard Crimson
25: Northern Iowa Panthers

SeattleCat

The Most Significant Win: Elon Phoenix
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards

[kdinva]

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Furman Paladins
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Montana State Bobcats
5: Montana Grizzlies
6: South Dakota Coyotes
7: Chattanooga Mocs
8: Villanova Wildcats
9: Sac State Hornets
10: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens
11: North Dakota State Bison
12: North Carolina Central Eagles
13: North Dakota Fighting Hawks
14: Albany Great Danes
15: Southern Illinois Salukis
16: Northern Iowa Panthers
17: Mercer Bears
18: Youngstown State Penguins
19: Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
20: Western Carolina Catamounts
21: Florida A&M Rattlers
22: Incarnate Word Cardinals
23: Richmond Spiders
24: Austin Peay Governors
25: Harvard Crimson


The Most Significant Win: Montana Grizzlies
The Most Significant Loss: Lafayette Leopards

[Redbird 4th & short]

Why does NC Central receive so much love with only 1 good win?

and Florida AM has no good wins.

Like Incarnate Word, I guess they need to actually lose to one of the many mediocre to bad teams they have been barely beating all year before people wake up.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I honestly am not shocked at UNI being where they are it is probably right. I am confused at how they are behind North Dakota though. Both teams are 6-3 neither team has a super standout win. I guess you could say the early season loss for UNI against Weber St. was bad, but UNI is a much different team right now than they were early on. Plus just a few weeks ago UNI handled North Dakota 27-0. UNI is 5-1 in conference with UND being 4-2. I know this late in the season head-to-head matters less, but I mean when the resume is similar the H2H should matter especially when one team dominates the other.

[crusader11]

You can debate whether or not UNI should be above or below South Dakota, but the lowest the should be ranked among Valley teams is third.

[crusader11]

I'm actually beginning to wonder how good Southern Illinois is.

On one hand, they played SDSU tougher than any Valley team all season. Lost 17-10, matched them in total yards exactly (308) and had five more first downs. Damn impressive.

On the other hand, they're 3-3 in the league with the three wins coming against three of the bottom four in the Valley consisting of WIU, Indiana St, and Murray St (a combined record of 5-22).

SIU shot up a bunch of polls early in the season when they beat NIU and SEMO (who we thought was good) and have managed to stay in the top 15 or so since.

If they finish 7-4 (4-3), but their four league wins are against the basement of the Valley, are we sure they're a playoff team? Probably because the bubble is going to be pretty weak, but don't think it's a definite.

[MSUBobcat]

You can debate whether or not UNI should be above or below South Dakota, but the lowest the should be ranked among Valley teams is third.

How would you debate putting UNI above South Dakota?
Similar point spread in FBS losses, though Missouri is better than Iowa State. Draw
USD beating St. Thomas and Lamar is better than UNI beating Idaho State and losing to Weber. Edge: USD
USD thumped Murray; UNI thumped WIU. Draw
USD and UNI both beat YSU by 3 at home. Another draw
USD beat ISU-b by 14; UNI beat them by 7. Edge: USD, slightly
Both got thumped by SDSU. Another draw.
USD beat the Bizun in Fargo, UNI pummeled UND at home. Edge: UNI, moderately.
USD won at ranked SIU by 7; UNI won at unranked Ill State by 3. Edge: USD

USD 1 less loss (and not to a team of BBQ's quality) and is 3-1 vs ranked teams, while UNI is 2-1 vs ranked teams with that other bad loss. USD seems like the clear #2 in MVFC to me. xdontknowx

[clenz]

You're real real real hung up on only that one game in UNI's schedule in week 2.

I don't really care either way who is ranked higher

but

it's clear you have some pretty significant bias going on in any, and every, breakdown you do.

Seems to be a pretty common thing in the MSU fanbase given the MSU fan willing to post their submission as the 6th Valley team and barely in at 25.

[F'N Hawks]

I honestly am not shocked at UNI being where they are it is probably right. I am confused at how they are behind North Dakota though. Both teams are 6-3 neither team has a super standout win. I guess you could say the early season loss for UNI against Weber St. was bad, but UNI is a much different team right now than they were early on. Plus just a few weeks ago UNI handled North Dakota 27-0. UNI is 5-1 in conference with UND being 4-2. I know this late in the season head-to-head matters less, but I mean when the resume is similar the H2H should matter especially when one team dominates the other.

It’s gonna be OK UNI fans, everything will be alright.

[Catbooster]

You're real real real hung up on only that one game in UNI's schedule in week 2.

I don't really care either way who is ranked higher

but

it's clear you have some pretty significant bias going on in any, and every, breakdown you do.

Seems to be a pretty common thing in the MSU fanbase given the MSU fan willing to post their submission as the 6th Valley team and barely in at 25.
I doubt the MSU fanbase is much different than the fanbase here in general. My UNI ranking was way higher than the AGS consensus. Confirmation bias or you just missed my post (I assume the latter)? Three opinions from MSU fans is probably not enough to represent the entire fan base, especially when one is high, one low and another somewhere in the middle.

I had dropped the Grizzlies out of my top 25 for a couple weeks earlier in the season. I now have them ranked #2. I think quite a few voters treated them similarly. They've made a phenomenal turn-around. Personally, I think that early loss by UNI can be treated similarly.

[MSUBobcat]

You're real real real hung up on only that one game in UNI's schedule in week 2.

I don't really care either way who is ranked higher

but

it's clear you have some pretty significant bias going on in any, and every, breakdown you do.

Seems to be a pretty common thing in the MSU fanbase given the MSU fan willing to post their submission as the 6th Valley team and barely in at 25.

I assume this was a response to my post? I'm not hung up on ****. UNI isn't on MSU's schedule, nor have they really done anything of note recently (a quarterfinal appearance 4 years ago, I guess), so I really couldn't care less about them at the moment. I responded specifically to a person saying that UNI as the #2 MVFC team is debatable. I asked THAT GUY how he comes to that conclusion. I provided support for why I don't think it's a debate. There's no bias, just evidentiary support.

Being the 3rd highest ranked team in the MVFC this late in the year is an admirable accomplishment. Not sure why that's so insulting to you. We're the 3rd team in the Big Sky and I'm okay with that.

Now back to your tilting at windmills. xpeacex

[crusader11]

How would you debate putting UNI above South Dakota?
Similar point spread in FBS losses, though Missouri is better than Iowa State. Draw
USD beating St. Thomas and Lamar is better than UNI beating Idaho State and losing to Weber. Edge: USD
USD thumped Murray; UNI thumped WIU. Draw
USD and UNI both beat YSU by 3 at home. Another draw
USD beat ISU-b by 14; UNI beat them by 7. Edge: USD, slightly
Both got thumped by SDSU. Another draw.
USD beat the Bizun in Fargo, UNI pummeled UND at home. Edge: UNI, moderately.
USD won at ranked SIU by 7; UNI won at unranked Ill State by 3. Edge: USD

USD 1 less loss (and not to a team of BBQ's quality) and is 3-1 vs ranked teams, while UNI is 2-1 vs ranked teams with that other bad loss. USD seems like the clear #2 in MVFC to me. xdontknowx

Seems like a pretty good debate to me…

[Redbird 4th & short]

You're real real real hung up on only that one game in UNI's schedule in week 2.

I don't really care either way who is ranked higher

but

it's clear you have some pretty significant bias going on in any, and every, breakdown you do.

Seems to be a pretty common thing in the MSU fanbase given the MSU fan willing to post their submission as the 6th Valley team and barely in at 25.

Exactly .. one game = 1 data point for UNI. With 25 teams being ranked, by season end it is 1 of 25 x 11 = 275 data points. i could go back in time to pick out games from USD and MoST when they both routinely went 0-8, 1-7, 2-6 in MVFC play, yet beat other conferences ranked teams in nonconf play. It didn't eliminate them from playoffs or top 25s.

It is 1 data point of so many data points. Everyone lays an egg .. even NDSU when they dominated .. usually lost 1 game a year completely unexpected.

[ElCid]

You're real real real hung up on only that one game in UNI's schedule in week 2.

I don't really care either way who is ranked higher

but

it's clear you have some pretty significant bias going on in any, and every, breakdown you do.

Seems to be a pretty common thing in the MSU fanbase given the MSU fan willing to post their submission as the 6th Valley team and barely in at 25.

I think there is more going on for both UNI AND YSU. I only have my observation when people post their polls. And I'm not sure how many voters are MVFC voters as compared to the whole, but in general, it seems like many of it's voters don't rank these two teams as high as the consensus. I will freely admit, I am usually leery of UNI because as good as they are in general, they seem to blow it late more than once. Everyone screams about history being important, so I'm applying it. Maybe incorrectly currently. But I have been moving them up each week. But to get back to my point, I'm not sure your fellow MVFC voters are giving either team a fair shake. I could be wrong, but I just review their posted votes occasionally. One could say they may know these teams better. Also, I think Ursus did say at one time that, in general, most voters are harsher on their own conference teams than others. That situation might be at work.

[kab]

With ndsu AD on committee every valley team should be nervous if the bizon have the same record as another team

[clenz]

I think there is more going on for both UNI AND YSU. I only have my observation when people post their polls. And I'm not sure how many voters are MVFC voters as compared to the whole, but in general, it seems like many of it's voters don't rank these two teams as high as the consensus. I will freely admit, I am usually leery of UNI because as good as they are in general, they seem to blow it late more than once. Everyone screams about history being important, so I'm applying it. Maybe incorrectly currently. But I have been moving them up each week. But to get back to my point, I'm not sure your fellow MVFC voters are giving either team a fair shake. I could be wrong, but I just review their posted votes occasionally. One could say they may know these teams better. Also, I think Ursus did say at one time that, in general, most voters are harsher on their own conference teams than others. That situation might be at work.
The irony in you viewing UNI as blowing it late is that it's the exact opposite of what they are known to do.

UNI's schedule ****s them from the start of the year over the last decade. They start, on average, 1-2 because they'll play a P5, a mid level Big Sky and a top 25 Big Sky both as H/Hs. Then they'll go on and finish 5-3 or 6-2 in Valley play, meaning they are finishing the season as strong/stronger than the vast majority of the teams in the country.

I got curious so i went and looked at every year going back to 2014

14 - started 2-3 (2 FBS games) and then won 6 of the last 7 and 5 straight to finish the season (6-2 in Valley play). Won first playoff game 44-10 before falling to eventual runner up Illinois State

15 - started 2-4 (FBS loss, @ #1 NDSU loss by 3, @ #3 ISUR loss by 7, loss to a playoff WIU by 5). Finished season 9-5 winning 5 straight to end the regular season, including 2 ranked wins (SDSU and ISUB), first round playoff win over a ranked team 53-17, second round playoff win @ #5 Portland State 29-17, loss to NDSU by 10 - only team to be within 28 of NDSU in the playoffs that year IIRC)

16 - was an awful year all around at 5-6 still won 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5 and the 2 losses were #1 NDSU by 4 and #8 SDSU in a game that went absolutely sideways as we had nothing to play for and SDSU was playing for a seed

17 - started 2-3 (FBS loss, loss @ SUU, loss to #15 WIU) then beat #7 SDSU by 20, #9 YSU, #6 USD, and MOSU/ISUB to win 5 of the last 6 (only loss was to #1 NDSU). Then won a playoff game 46-7 before falling to seeded SDSU in the rematch in Brookings.

18 - started 1-3 (Iowa, @ Montana, #1 NDSU). Finished the regular season 7-5 so went 6-2 over the last 8 weeks. Then went on to win a playoff game before losing by 6 @ #4 Davis.

19 - started 3-3 (L to Iowa State in 3 OT, @ #5 Weber, @ #1 NDSU - also beat a RV Idaho State and #18 YSU in that span). Then went 5-1 to close the regular season - only loss was at #8 SDSU. Won as first round playoff game, revenged the SDSU loss and beat SDSU in Brookings, then fell in the quarters to JMU.

20 - stupid season doesn't count in my eyes for things like this

21 - see 16 but still managed to make the playoffs because we were on the cusp of being really good but just weren't. Lost to #7 FBS Iowa State by 6, beat a ranked Sac State team 34-14, beat a #6 SDSU, beat #3 SIU. Finished 6-5 in the regular season. Lost a road playoff game first round to EWU where EWU scored 19 despite averaging about 50 on the season.

22 - started 0-3 and then 2-4. Finished by winning 4 of the last 5 and the only loss was by 3 on a last second field goal by #1 SDSU.


So does all of that really fit into the "they fall off late" narrative you have? No. In the month of November since the start of 2014 UNI is 27-6 in the month of November, and 3 of those losses were in 2021. They have made the playoffs 6 of those 8 years and are over .500 in the playoffs. UNI just gets the fortune, or misfortune, of being close to the DSU's and getting them in the second or third round more than they don't. Turns out that hasn't worked well for anyone over that time period. In fact 4 of the 6 palyoff losses came to one of the DSUs or JMU. How many teams have had any success in the playoffs against those 3 other than that same group of 3? Virtually no one.

UNI's Valley finish in those season is
3
3
4
2
3
2
6
3

Outside of the DSU's what program in the Valley is finishing conference play that consistently in the standings? UNI has a conference record of 41-23 in that time, finished .500 twice and over .500 every other year. Finished at 6-2 more than any other conference record. Likely to finish either 6-2 or 7-1 again this year.

I can tell you based on just quick math in my head there isn't a single non DSU school that matches that over that same time period.

So I guess my question to you is, what constitutes blowing it late more than once? The playoff losses @ SDSU, @ NDSU and @ SDSU? The regular season losses late in the year to SDSU? Which of the 6 losses in November, compared to 27 November wins, is so egregious that it completely overrides the 82% win % in the month of November to make it so "UNI usually blows it late?". I'd love to know. I'd love to know what record is required over the last 6 half of the season (specifically November when the playoff push is actually on) is required? If 82% is blowing it what isn't? 90? 95? If UNI is blowing it late at 82% I can only imagine about 10-12 teams actually aren't "Blowing it late" especially when SOS comes into play on it.

[ElCid]

The irony in you viewing UNI as blowing it late is that it's the exact opposite of what they are known to do.

UNI's schedule ****s them from the start of the year over the last decade. They start, on average, 1-2 because they'll play a P5, a mid level Big Sky and a top 25 Big Sky both as H/Hs. Then they'll go on and finish 5-3 or 6-2 in Valley play, meaning they are finishing the season as strong/stronger than the vast majority of the teams in the country.

I got curious so i went and looked at every year going back to 2014

14 - started 2-3 (2 FBS games) and then won 6 of the last 7 and 5 straight to finish the season (6-2 in Valley play). Won first playoff game 44-10 before falling to eventual runner up Illinois State

15 - started 2-4 (FBS loss, @ #1 NDSU loss by 3, @ #3 ISUR loss by 7, loss to a playoff WIU by 5). Finished season 9-5 winning 5 straight to end the regular season, including 2 ranked wins (SDSU and ISUB), first round playoff win over a ranked team 53-17, second round playoff win @ #5 Portland State 29-17, loss to NDSU by 10 - only team to be within 28 of NDSU in the playoffs that year IIRC)

16 - was an awful year all around at 5-6 still won 2 of last 3 and 3 of last 5 and the 2 losses were #1 NDSU by 4 and #8 SDSU in a game that went absolutely sideways as we had nothing to play for and SDSU was playing for a seed

17 - started 2-3 (FBS loss, loss @ SUU, loss to #15 WIU) then beat #7 SDSU by 20, #9 YSU, #6 USD, and MOSU/ISUB to win 5 of the last 6 (only loss was to #1 NDSU). Then won a playoff game 46-7 before falling to seeded SDSU in the rematch in Brookings.

18 - started 1-3 (Iowa, @ Montana, #1 NDSU). Finished the regular season 7-5 so went 6-2 over the last 8 weeks. Then went on to win a playoff game before losing by 6 @ #4 Davis.

19 - started 3-3 (L to Iowa State in 3 OT, @ #5 Weber, @ #1 NDSU - also beat a RV Idaho State and #18 YSU in that span). Then went 5-1 to close the regular season - only loss was at #8 SDSU. Won as first round playoff game, revenged the SDSU loss and beat SDSU in Brookings, then fell in the quarters to JMU.

20 - stupid season doesn't count in my eyes for things like this

21 - see 16 but still managed to make the playoffs because we were on the cusp of being really good but just weren't. Lost to #7 FBS Iowa State by 6, beat a ranked Sac State team 34-14, beat a #6 SDSU, beat #3 SIU. Finished 6-5 in the regular season. Lost a road playoff game first round to EWU where EWU scored 19 despite averaging about 50 on the season.

22 - started 0-3 and then 2-4. Finished by winning 4 of the last 5 and the only loss was by 3 on a last second field goal by #1 SDSU.


So does all of that really fit into the "they fall off late" narrative you have? No. In the month of November since the start of 2014 UNI is 27-6 in the month of November, and 3 of those losses were in 2021. They have made the playoffs 6 of those 8 years and are over .500 in the playoffs. UNI just gets the fortune, or misfortune, of being close to the DSU's and getting them in the second or third round more than they don't. Turns out that hasn't worked well for anyone over that time period. In fact 4 of the 6 palyoff losses came to one of the DSUs or JMU. How many teams have had any success in the playoffs against those 3 other than that same group of 3? Virtually no one.

UNI's Valley finish in those season is
3
3
4
2
3
2
6
3

Outside of the DSU's what program in the Valley is finishing conference play that consistently in the standings? UNI has a conference record of 41-23 in that time, finished .500 twice and over .500 every other year. Finished at 6-2 more than any other conference record. Likely to finish either 6-2 or 7-1 again this year.

I can tell you based on just quick math in my head there isn't a single non DSU school that matches that over that same time period.

So I guess my question to you is, what constitutes blowing it late more than once? The playoff losses @ SDSU, @ NDSU and @ SDSU? The regular season losses late in the year to SDSU? Which of the 6 losses in November, compared to 27 November wins, is so egregious that it completely overrides the 82% win % in the month of November to make it so "UNI usually blows it late?". I'd love to know. I'd love to know what record is required over the last 6 half of the season (specifically November when the playoff push is actually on) is required? If 82% is blowing it what isn't? 90? 95? If UNI is blowing it late at 82% I can only imagine about 10-12 teams actually aren't "Blowing it late" especially when SOS comes into play on it.

You are right. I had a perception, obviously wrong. I should have said blew it early, due to hype hard scheduling and not being able to play catch up in time. I knew that but it simply translated wrong between my brain and fingers.

[clenz]

You are right. I had a perception, obviously wrong. I should have said blew it early, due to hype hard scheduling and not being able to play catch up in time. I knew that but it simply translated wrong between my brain and fingers.
Simple counter point

"Blowing it early due to a hard SOS"

Is that really blowing it? I posted in another thread UNI's final SOS every year since 2011. It's top 8 every single year and the vast majority of those is top 3. The play an FBS and a ranked Big Sky in the OOC damn near every single season. Hell, next year they play 2 FBS games again. What are they blowing? Outside of the DSU's who is going to play the #1 or #4 rated OOC SOS - or overall SOS - every single season and still manage to get to 7 or 8+ wins more than they don't? Look at the teams in the top 10 of the SOS and look at their records. There is almost a direct inverse correlation between SOS and record, except UNI yearly.

If you are willing to rank UNI highly preseason, drop them for losing games in the first 2 weeks of the season because "Here they go again" knowing they are going to turn around and finish strong but then refuse to move them up at the same speed you dropped them you are proving the problem with bias and slot voting.

here are the records in SOS order
3-6
0-9
6-3 - UNI and was #1 until WIU bombed them this week and they have the #1 remaining SOS so likely to jump back to #1 to finish the year.
3-6
0-9
4-5
7-2 Idaho
7-2 USD
7-2 Montana St
4-5 Weber
0-9
6-3 Sac
6-3 SIU
0-9
3-6
2-7
6-3 UND
6-3 YSU

You can see the inverse correlation to SOS and record.

Now there are a couple 7-2 and other 6-3 teams on there.

Why are those teams getting bumps and being highly rated (higher than UNI) and getting the SOS benfit of the doubt? Is UNI truly being punished that harshly for losing to Weber in week ****ing 2? The answer is yes, and you admitted it. Look how many have called it a "boat anchor around UNI's neck". I've seen people talk about UNI "struggling" to beat Indiana State but not applying that same logic to USD or UND (who needed OT and a last second FG to even tie it).

There's no other reason to look at the resumes of all of those team, especially teams UNI beat and go "Yeah they are a head of them in the conference standings, they beat them H2H, they have a better win, their SOS is higher, etc." other than the bias I've talked about and going "but I expect them to lose a game so when they do I can just go "see i told you!!!" and then puinish them for it"

[MSUBobcat]

Exactly .. one game = 1 data point for UNI. With 25 teams being ranked, by season end it is 1 of 25 x 11 = 275 data points. i could go back in time to pick out games from USD and MoST when they both routinely went 0-8, 1-7, 2-6 in MVFC play, yet beat other conferences ranked teams in nonconf play. It didn't eliminate them from playoffs or top 25s.

It is 1 data point of so many data points. Everyone lays an egg .. even NDSU when they dominated .. usually lost 1 game a year completely unexpected.

1 data point?! I literally laid out comparable games for the ENTIRE SEASON side by side showing why USD has the better resume. USD has one more ranked win and no unranked loss. Another slow week if the weekly AGS poll thread argument is whether USD is clearly ahead of UNI for the 2nd spot in MVFC (AGS, STATS, Coaches, Massey all agree with my assertion). If USD loses to UND this weekend and UNI beats MoSt, then UNI has a claim to be ranked ahead of USD. If not, it'll be more support for USD over UNI (a 4th ranked win vs only 2 for UNI).

No idea what your anecdote about USD/MoSt beating someone and it not eliminating them from playoffs or top 25 has to do with anything - the debate is whether UNI has a claim to the 2nd best MVFC team, not whether UNI is a playoff team or top 25.

[atthewbon]

I can get the frustration that UNI isn't ranked higher than UND. I think they should be. But let's not act like UNI is a team that's consistently disrespected, at least by the people who matter most. UNI has made the playoffs at 6-5 twice in recent memory and I can't remember anytime they've been left out at 7-4. So to the people who matter (the committee) they are taking UNI's SOS into account and placing them into the field accordingly.