Week 10 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Just 2 week until Selection Sunday so time for an updated playoff prognostication. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining game I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).



Big Sky
Montana locked themselves in this week with a big win over Sac St and Idaho and Montana St kept trucking as they're only a win away from locking in their spot and might be in regardless. How the seeds break down amongst these teams will be interesting - if Montana St beats Montana as Massey predicts it could be a mess at the top with three 9-2 teams all 1-1 against each other. Massey thinks Idaho's next game at Weber St is closer to a toss up than most would think so that could throw another monkey wrench into things. That Sac St/UC Davis finale might be interesting if UC Davis wins and they both finish 7-4. UC Davis would have the head-to-head win but Sac St has that nice FBS/Pac-12 pelt - would there be enough room for both? I still think this league gets 4 bids this year and probably 3 seeds.

Locked in
Montana 8-1 (5-1) [1.22/0.78] - @Portland St (77%), Montana St (45%)

Likely in
Idaho 7-2 (5-1) [1.41/0.59] - @Weber St (52%), Idaho St (89%)
Montana St 7-2 (5-1) [1.34/0.66] - EWU (79%), @Montana (55%)

Work left to do
Sac St 6-3 (3-3) [1.51/0.49] - Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (54%)
UC Davis 5-4 (3-3) [1.22/0.78] - @Idaho St (76%), Sac St (46%)


CAA
Another week and another couple teams (UNH and Hampton) falling of this list of CAA playoff contenders. Delaware knocked themselves out of the top 4 seed conversation with their loss to Elon but are still just a win away from locking in their playoff spot. Both Nova and Albany picked up big wins that has them on the verge of locking in their spot as well. I'm having a hard time seeing more than one playoff bid, if that, from the group in the "work left to do category". Richmond/Elon and William & Mary/Richmond will be huge games these least two weeks and the loser of both of those games is likely out. I think even if URI wins out they're on the wrong side of the bubble. We'll see who can make it to Selection Sunday with 4 or fewer losses out of the CAA but I'm thinking 3-4 bids for the league is it with 3 more likely than 4.

Likely in
Delaware 7-2 (5-1) [1.33/0.67] - @Campbell (76%), Nova (57%)
Villanova 7-2 (5-1) [1.28/0.72] - Towson (85%), @Delaware (43%)
Albany 7-3 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - @SBU (94%), Monmouth (58%)

Work left to do
Richmond 6-3 (5-1) [1.06/0.94] - Elon (64%), @W&M (41%)
Elon 5-4 (5-1) [1.29/0.71] - @Richmond (36%), Hampton (93%)
William & Mary 5-4 (3-3) [1.48/0.52] - @Hamptom (89%), Richmond (59%)
Rhode Island 5-4 (3-3) [1.49/0.51] - NC A&T (90%), @Towson (59%)


MVFC
Another week closer to Selection Sunday and another week where the list of playoff contenders in the MVFC stays huge (what a difference from last year). SDSU is locked in and I'm thinking they're probably only one more win away from locking up the #1 seed as well. USD got a huge win @SIU and is tracking towards a decent seed. At least 2 in the group of NDSU/UNI/SIU is going to be at 4 losses or more come Selection Sunday - UNI probably has the best shot of those 3 at 7-4 but head-to-head matchups between them these last 2 weeks will loom large even though I tend to think all of them are in at 7-4. UND could also end up in the 7-4 group to make things even messier but if they lose to USD next week they're likely already playing a playoff game in week 12 vs Illinois St who hung on this list by a thread yesterday. YSU is yet another MVFC team likely to end up at 7-4 - their head-to-head win over SIU should help them but they lost to UNI and don't play NDSU or UND so it'll be tough to place them until we see who else is at 7-4 with them. 6 bids is looking more and more likely but it could drop to 5 or get all the way to 7 depending on how things shake out these last 2 weeks.

Locked in
SDSU 9-0 (6-0) [1.80/0.20] - @YSU (84%), Missouri St (95%)

Likely in
USD 7-2 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - UND (54%), @WIU (97%)

Work left do to
NDSU 6-3 (3-3) [1.47/0.53] - SIU (80%), @UNI (67%)
UNI 6-3 (5-1) [0.97/1.03] - @Missouri St (63%), NDSU (33%)
SIU 6-3 (3-3) [1.19/0.81] - @NDSU (20%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 6-3 (4-2) [1.10/0.90] - @USD (46%), Illinois St (65%)
YSU 6-3 (4-2) [1.01/0.99] - SDSU (16%), @Murray St (85%)
Illinois St 5-4 (3-3) [1.26/0.74] - Murray St (91%), @UND (35%)


SOCON
Furman is the autobid here and is a massive favorite to finish 10-1 which probably gets them the #2 or #3 national seed. As for the rest they're in if they get to 8 wins but any and all of them would be on the bubble at 7-4. WCU is in the best shape of that group with 2 very winnable games to close out the season but they've been sputtering lately and might need some help if they drop one of those although head-to-head wins over Chattanooga and Samford may come in handy for them. Chattanooga is in the uneviable position of needing another win to lock themselves in and having to go to Bama for their final game so they're destined to be on the bubble at 7-4. Mercer and Samford play a coin flip game next week and if Samford wins they play what's likely another coin flip game in week 12 vs UTM. I'm not sure Samford will even be in at 7-4 with a sub-D1 win amongst those 7 wins but they could make a strong case. This league could still get anywhere from 2-4 bids IMO - it's just too early to tell.

Locked in
Furman 8-1 (6-0) [1.93/0.07] - VMI (98%), @Wofford (94%)

Work left to do
Western Carolina 6-3 (4-2) [1.46/0.54] - ETSU (72%), @VMI (74%)
Mercer 7-3 (5-2) [0.51/0.49] - Samford (51%)
Chattanooga 7-3 (6-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Bama (~0%)
Samford 5-4 (4-3) [0.99/1.01] - @Mercer (49%), UTM (50%)


Patriot
Lafayette's loss to Colgate yesterday turned this group upside down as Lafayette went from being on the fringe of a seed if they win out to now probably sitting on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose to Fordham next week (as Massey predicts). Holy Cross will be rooting for that to happen as one more league loss for Lafayette puts them back in the driver's seat for the autobid. They could take matters into their owns hands and essentially lock up a bid by beating Army next weekend but that's a tall order. I think Fordham is actually hurt by Lafayette's loss to Colgate because, even though Fordham can get above Lafayette in the playoff pecking order with a win next week, a win over Lafayette all of a sudden probably isn't a win over a playoff team like it looked like it would be last week. Whether the Patriot gets an at-large is probably a coin flip unless both HC and Lafayette win out.

Work left to do
Lafayette 7-2 (3-1) [1.18/0.82] - Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (73%)
Holy Cross 6-3 (4-1) [1.16/0.84] - @Army (22%), Georgetown (94%)
Fordham 6-3 (2-2) [1.21/0.79] - @Lafayette (54%), @Colgate (67%)



OVC/Big South
The OVC/Big South is still a mess - UTM barely avoided what would've been a crippling loss to TTU but SEMO didn't as they dropped a game to RMU meaning no one in this league (as far as I can tell) controls their own destiny for the autobid due to the fact that SEMO and G-W don't play each other. It seems like UTM's only path to the playoffs would be through an at-large since, if they beat SEMO next week, and G-W wins out they lose the tie breaker to G-W but if they get to 9-2 with that win and another win over Samford in week 12 they're looking good for a playoff bid no matter what. EIU and Tennessee St play an elimination game next week - I'm not sure TSU is in even if they finish 8-3 after an ugly loss to CSU yesterday. EIU could definitely make a case for an at-large at 8-3 but that head-to-head loss to UTM could bite them unless UTM snags the auto. It's possible this league gets an at-large especially if UTM and G-W win out but that'll be the most they can hope for.

Work left to do
UT Martin 7-2 (4-1) [1.03/0.97] - SEMO (53%), @Samford (50%)
EIU 6-3 (2-2) [1.51/0.49] - TSU (65%), @RMU (86%)
Tennessee St 6-3 (2-2) [1.03/0.97] - @EIU (35%), TTU (69%)
Gardner-Webb 5-4 (3-1) [1.39/0.61] - @TTU (63%), CSU (76%)
SEMO 4-5 (3-1) [1.21/0.79] - @UTM (47%), @Bryant (74%)


Others
I combined the SLC and UAC here but that's it for now as FAMU and NCCU kept their grips on their Celebration Bowl bids and the previous 2 leagues mentioned still have 3 or more teams in contention. You could see that UIW loss to Nicholls coming the way they'd been sputtering the last few weeks - I don't know what to make of UIW's at-large chances now. Their cancelled game vs NWSU now counts as a forfeit win but are they dinged for a sub-D1 win and a forfeit win if they win their finale against HCU??? Your guess is as good as mine but I think their at-large chances are sketchy. To get back in the conversation for the auto they need Lamar to beat Nicholls next week. The UAC is less tricky as both APSU and UCA control their own destiny. APSU might have a case for an at-large at 8-3 but I think they'd be in trouble - UCA is autobid or bust.

Work left to do
Austin Peay 7-2 (4-0) [1.54/0.46] - Utah Tech (89%), UCA (65%)
UCA 6-3 (3-1) [1.00/1.00] - EKU (65%), @APSU (35%)
Incarnate Word 7-2 (4-1) [0.90/0.10] - NWSU (100% - forfeit), @HCU (90%)
Nicholls 4-4 (5-0) [1.31/0.69] - Lamar (86%), @SLU (45%)


The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Idaho (9-2), Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (9-2), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 6 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (10-1), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3), Chattanooga (7-4)

The other 6 autos:
Patriot: Holy Cross (7-4)
OVC/Big South: Gardner-Webb (7-4)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: Nicholls (5-5)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Furman (10-1)
3. Idaho (9-2)
4. Montana St (9-2)
5. USD (9-2)
6. Montana (9-2)
7. Delaware (9-2)
8. NDSU (8-3)

Last 4 in: UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)
First 4 out: Fordham (8-3), Lafayette (8-3), UTM (8-3), UIW (8-2)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: EIU (8-3), TSU (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), Elon (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), Samford (6-5)

Some big movement in the projected seeds this week - this would be a tough draw for top seed SDSU since they'd probably have regular season rematches all the way until Frisco. A lot of tough decisions with this projected bubble as well - Fordham or Chattanooga was basically a coin flip for me. I still kinda doubt the committee gives the MVFC 7 bids and my logic is admittedly circular since I'm giving credit to these MVFC teams for wins over teams in my projected field which is easier to get when you have 7 teams from one conference in the projected field. Still it's tough to make a case for the projected 8 wins teams in weaker conferences over the proejected 7 win teams in the MVFC.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[grizband]

Would Idaho receive a higher seed than Montana, based on the head-to-head game between the two teams?

[clenz]

I can't wait to see the following situation play out and the heads exploding trying to justify who to seed, not to seed, where each should be ranked, etc.

UNI>MOSU
UND>USD
NDSU>SIU
YSU>SDSU
UNI>NDSU

That would give UNI a share of the Valley title at 8-3 (7-1) and the Valley standings would look like

SDSU 10-1 7-1
UNI 8-3 7-1
UND 8-3 6-2
USD 8-3 6-2
NDSU 7-4 4-4
SIU 7-4 4-4

The absolute hilarity of the outrage that would ensure giving UNI a seed - though it'd be hard to argue against given they'd be sharing the Valley title. Though we've seen UNI finish second, outright, in the Valley and the seed given to a team that finished 5th 2 games behind them in the the standings.

I say that because USD is going to be "ranked" the seed line before UNI would. They likely won't fall much because the UND win moves UND to 8-3 so it's "not a bad loss". Would that UND win be late enough in the year to bump them back ahead of UNI in the rankings (if UNI has even moved in front of them yet by that point)? If USD and UND are ranked a head of UNI and UNI gets the seed because they shared the conference title? *chefs kiss*. Though it's more likley that shared title and head to head blow out of UND is ignored and UNI isn't seeded and is instead fed to a seeded USD.


The double standard application and spin cycles are going to be oh so fun to read the next few weeks if that plays out.

[Catbooster]

Would Idaho receive a higher seed than Montana, based on the head-to-head game between the two teams?
Yes since this is based on assuming Massey's predictions are correct.

Massey has MSU slightly favored over UM so this is based on the Griz losing Cat/Griz.

[The Yo Show]

I can't wait to see the following situation play out and the heads exploding trying to justify who to seed, not to seed, where each should be ranked, etc.

UNI>MOSU
UND>USD
NDSU>SIU
YSU>SDSU
UNI>NDSU

That would give UNI a share of the Valley title at 8-3 (7-1) and the Valley standings would look like

SDSU 10-1 7-1
UNI 8-3 7-1
UND 8-3 6-2
USD 8-3 6-2
NDSU 7-4 4-4
SIU 7-4 4-4

The absolute hilarity of the outrage that would ensure giving UNI a seed - though it'd be hard to argue against given they'd be sharing the Valley title. Though we've seen UNI finish second, outright, in the Valley and the seed given to a team that finished 5th 2 games behind them in the the standings.

I say that because USD is going to be "ranked" the seed line before UNI would. They likely won't fall much because the UND win moves UND to 8-3 so it's "not a bad loss". Would that UND win be late enough in the year to bump them back ahead of UNI in the rankings (if UNI has even moved in front of them yet by that point)? If USD and UND are ranked a head of UNI and UNI gets the seed because they shared the conference title? *chefs kiss*. Though it's more likley that shared title and head to head blow out of UND is ignored and UNI isn't seeded and is instead fed to a seeded USD.


The double standard application and spin cycles are going to be oh so fun to read the next few weeks if that plays out.

This would be chaos... kinda mentioned by virtue of saying YSU > SDSU, but not included in your standings there ysu would end

8-3 and in the valley standings at 6-2... right in positioning with UND and SD.

Would ysu have an argument for a seed in that case too? I think so, not saying they would get one, but they have two conference losses from early in the season on the road and by 3 points each game, coupled with an at home win over SDSU

[Professor Chaos]

Would Idaho receive a higher seed than Montana, based on the head-to-head game between the two teams?


Yes since this is based on assuming Massey's predictions are correct.

Massey has MSU slightly favored over UM so this is based on the Griz losing Cat/Griz.
Yep - Idaho, Montana St, and Montana would all be 1-1 against each other if the Cats beat the Griz so someone has to get seeded below someone they beat. In that case they'd all be 9-2 but Idaho and Montana St would be conference co-champs with Idaho getting the autobid (and the bump in seed line) above Montana St.

[atthewbon]

If Austin Peay ends up 8-3 and missing the auto bid I think they should get in over a potential 7-4 Chattanooga team.

[grizband]

Would Idaho receive a higher seed than Montana, based on the head-to-head game between the two teams?


Yes since this is based on assuming Massey's predictions are correct.

Massey has MSU slightly favored over UM so this is based on the Griz losing Cat/Griz.


Yep - Idaho, Montana St, and Montana would all be 1-1 against each other if the Cats beat the Griz so someone has to get seeded below someone they beat. In that case they'd all be 9-2 but Idaho and Montana St would be conference co-champs with Idaho getting the autobid (and the bump in seed line) above Montana St.
That's fair, that's for clarifying.

[clenz]

This would be chaos... kinda mentioned by virtue of saying YSU > SDSU, but not included in your standings there ysu would end

8-3 and in the valley standings at 6-2... right in positioning with UND and SD.

Would ysu have an argument for a seed in that case too? I think so, not saying they would get one, but they have two conference losses from early in the season on the road and by 3 points each game, coupled with an at home win over SDSU

Didn’t intentionally leave them off. It just never occurred to me that also put them at 8-3 6-2. I haven’t looked enough to know how that 3 way tie for 3rd would actually play out.


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[JacksFan40]

Didn’t see any mention of the Pioneer outside of you giving Davidson the auto, but I’m pretty sure I read that if both Davidson and Drake win out that Drake would get the auto due to tiebreaker, as they don’t play each other. Pretty sure it was because Drake beat St. Thomas and that gives them the edge.

[JacksFan40]

I can't wait to see the following situation play out and the heads exploding trying to justify who to seed, not to seed, where each should be ranked, etc.

UNI>MOSU
UND>USD
NDSU>SIU
YSU>SDSU
UNI>NDSU

That would give UNI a share of the Valley title at 8-3 (7-1) and the Valley standings would look like

SDSU 10-1 7-1
UNI 8-3 7-1
UND 8-3 6-2
USD 8-3 6-2
NDSU 7-4 4-4
SIU 7-4 4-4

The absolute hilarity of the outrage that would ensure giving UNI a seed - though it'd be hard to argue against given they'd be sharing the Valley title. Though we've seen UNI finish second, outright, in the Valley and the seed given to a team that finished 5th 2 games behind them in the the standings.

I say that because USD is going to be "ranked" the seed line before UNI would. They likely won't fall much because the UND win moves UND to 8-3 so it's "not a bad loss". Would that UND win be late enough in the year to bump them back ahead of UNI in the rankings (if UNI has even moved in front of them yet by that point)? If USD and UND are ranked a head of UNI and UNI gets the seed because they shared the conference title? *chefs kiss*. Though it's more likley that shared title and head to head blow out of UND is ignored and UNI isn't seeded and is instead fed to a seeded USD.


The double standard application and spin cycles are going to be oh so fun to read the next few weeks if that plays out.
If UNI wins out they should be a lock for a seed with only two FCS losses. Right now I would predict SDSU, USD, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and Furman to all be seeded with one of those last two spots coming down to NDSU, UNI, or SIU.

[clenz]

Didn’t see any mention of the Pioneer outside of you giving Davidson the auto, but I’m pretty sure I read that if both Davidson and Drake win out that Drake would get the auto due to tiebreaker, as they don’t play each other. Pretty sure it was because Drake beat St. Thomas and that gives them the edge.
Drake owns the edge in SOV and SOR but Massey gives better odds to Davidson to not drop one of the final 2 as of now.

[clenz]

If UNI wins out they should be a lock for a seed with only two FCS losses. Right now I would predict SDSU, USD, Montana, Montana State, Idaho, and Furman to all be seeded with one of those last two spots coming down to NDSU, UNI, or SIU.
Should, but I've followed the FCS long enough to know that if UNI, USD, UND, and YSU all finish at 8-3 it won't matter than UNI beat YSU and UND. It won't matter than UNI finished with a share of the conference title while the others didn't. If history has shown us anything it's that UNI would be the bottom of that group in terms of getting a seed or even a seat at the playoff table.

UND and USD are both already ranked ahead of UNI and UNI isn't going to get the same NDSU boost those two did so they won't jump them. UND beats USD that moves UND up a ton and the other side would be "You can't fault USD for losing to UND like that". So they both stay ahead of UNI. YSU beats SDSU and they'll skyrocket because they beat SDSU and the H2H between those two gets thrown out because YSU beat SDSU late in the year.

It's pre-emptive conspiracy theory thinking on my part, but if you take a step back and truly think about it you'll see what I said absolutely would happen.

None of it matters if UNI doesn't win out and that exact situation doesn't play out. To get every single game to play out to get to that scenario is almost statistically impossible. Just a fun though experiment

EDIT - additional thought that i'm not sure where to put elsewhere

UNI's loss to WSU has been called a boat anchor, and it's not a good loss for sure. But don't look now as Weber is at 20 in Massey (laughable, I realize) and could finish 6-5 as they have a virtual lock win against Poly and are a 50/50 toss up with Idaho per massey. If Weber is at 6-5 are they still a "boat anchor"? What's even better with that is should Weber win that it puts Idaho also at 8-3 going to the playoffs. Does Idaho get hit with a "boat anchor" loss though pattern?xrotatehxxrotatehxxcoffeex:D

[atthewbon]

Interesting tweet about fcs playoff odds. The account further breaks it down by conference and has odds for receiving a bye. https://x.com/RedHerringBets/status/1721222324039377247?s=20
3314133141

[geaux_sioux]

Might as well mark us down for an L in Verm. Even our great teams from the past struggled there. Factor in our recent road ineptitude and it’s not looking good for the f’n hawks

[SDFS]

Should, but I've followed the FCS long enough to know that if UNI, USD, UND, and YSU all finish at 8-3 it won't matter than UNI beat YSU and UND. It won't matter than UNI finished with a share of the conference title while the others didn't. If history has shown us anything it's that UNI would be the bottom of that group in terms of getting a seed or even a seat at the playoff table.

UND and USD are both already ranked ahead of UNI and UNI isn't going to get the same NDSU boost those two did so they won't jump them. UND beats USD that moves UND up a ton and the other side would be "You can't fault USD for losing to UND like that". So they both stay ahead of UNI. YSU beats SDSU and they'll skyrocket because they beat SDSU and the H2H between those two gets thrown out because YSU beat SDSU late in the year.

It's pre-emptive conspiracy theory thinking on my part, but if you take a step back and truly think about it you'll see what I said absolutely would happen.

None of it matters if UNI doesn't win out and that exact situation doesn't play out. To get every single game to play out to get to that scenario is almost statistically impossible. Just a fun though experiment

EDIT - additional thought that i'm not sure where to put elsewhere

UNI's loss to WSU has been called a boat anchor, and it's not a good loss for sure. But don't look now as Weber is at 20 in Massey (laughable, I realize) and could finish 6-5 as they have a virtual lock win against Poly and are a 50/50 toss up with Idaho per massey. If Weber is at 6-5 are they still a "boat anchor"? What's even better with that is should Weber win that it puts Idaho also at 8-3 going to the playoffs. Does Idaho get hit with a "boat anchor" loss though pattern?xrotatehxxrotatehxxcoffeex:D

If UNI wins out and they are tied with USD and UND. UNI would be the second team for a seed in the MVFC - due to head to head record. I mean you think UND is the playoff darling compared to UNI? I don't think so. Just win both games and UNI will be a seed - end of story.

[smilo]

Interesting tweet about fcs playoff odds. The account further breaks it down by conference and has odds for receiving a bye. https://x.com/RedHerringBets/status/1721222324039377247?s=20
3314133141

6-5 New Hampshire gonna get in, but not even a sliver for Rhode Island. Mad respect for sticking with the analytics, but you know the committee would never.

Font looks like the old 538 modelling.

[caribbeanhen]

PC
just know Massey math doesn’t figure in curses, Nova is certain to be a loss for Delaware

Likely in
Delaware 7-2 (5-1) [1.33/0.67] - @Campbell (76%), Nova (57%)

[SteelSD]

Didn’t see any mention of the Pioneer outside of you giving Davidson the auto, but I’m pretty sure I read that if both Davidson and Drake win out that Drake would get the auto due to tiebreaker, as they don’t play each other. Pretty sure it was because Drake beat St. Thomas and that gives them the edge.
If Drake wins out it’s crazy to think they would make the FCS playoffs with resume that includes a loss to a NAIA school. Not to mention 2 losses to MVFC schools by a combined 125-14. But yeah, the Pioneer deserves an auto bud…

[Puddin Tane]

Hey. If Lamar wins out, 7-4 with losses to Idaho, South Dakota, Uiw, and fbs ULM

UIW would get auto…give my Cardinals an at larggggge! Frisco bound!

peck em

[bonarae]

If Drake wins out it’s crazy to think they would make the FCS playoffs with resume that includes a loss to a NAIA school. Not to mention 2 losses to MVFC schools by a combined 125-14. But yeah, the Pioneer deserves an auto bud…

Why does Davidson have the edge? Is a D-II loss "better" than a NAIA loss in the eyes of the playoff selection committee? And yes, Davidson also lost their other game to a scholarship FCS program in VMI, albeit it was closer than the Bulldogs' losses to MVFC programs.

[clenz]

Why does Davidson have the edge? Is a D-II loss "better" than a NAIA loss in the eyes of the playoff selection committee? And yes, Davidson also lost their other game to a scholarship FCS program in VMI, albeit it was closer than the Bulldogs' losses to MVFC programs.

What are you confused by?

In Massey Davidson has the edge as Massey feels Drake is more likely to lose one of the two final games than Davidson. Neither is likely to lose but Massey believes it’s Drake more likely

Drake gets the auto if neither lose due to SOV and SOR


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Chalupa Batman]

Should, but I've followed the FCS long enough to know that if UNI, USD, UND, and YSU all finish at 8-3 it won't matter than UNI beat YSU and UND. It won't matter than UNI finished with a share of the conference title while the others didn't. If history has shown us anything it's that UNI would be the bottom of that group in terms of getting a seed or even a seat at the playoff table.

UND and USD are both already ranked ahead of UNI and UNI isn't going to get the same NDSU boost those two did so they won't jump them. UND beats USD that moves UND up a ton and the other side would be "You can't fault USD for losing to UND like that". So they both stay ahead of UNI. YSU beats SDSU and they'll skyrocket because they beat SDSU and the H2H between those two gets thrown out because YSU beat SDSU late in the year.

It's pre-emptive conspiracy theory thinking on my part, but if you take a step back and truly think about it you'll see what I said absolutely would happen.

None of it matters if UNI doesn't win out and that exact situation doesn't play out. To get every single game to play out to get to that scenario is almost statistically impossible. Just a fun though experiment

EDIT - additional thought that i'm not sure where to put elsewhere

UNI's loss to WSU has been called a boat anchor, and it's not a good loss for sure. But don't look now as Weber is at 20 in Massey (laughable, I realize) and could finish 6-5 as they have a virtual lock win against Poly and are a 50/50 toss up with Idaho per massey. If Weber is at 6-5 are they still a "boat anchor"? What's even better with that is should Weber win that it puts Idaho also at 8-3 going to the playoffs. Does Idaho get hit with a "boat anchor" loss though pattern?xrotatehxxrotatehxxcoffeex:D

In this scenario I would rank them YSU>UNI>UND>USD in the playoff pecking order, with YSU & UNI likely both being seeded in the 6-8 range. The Penguins late season win over SDSU would easily be the best win anyone has this year and outweigh earlier very close losses on the road against two 8 win teams. After that it's pretty simple among the other 3 teams....UNI is 1-0 against the other 2, UND is 1-1, and USD is 0-1. I know you had NDSU beating SIU in your hypothetical, but if they won out they'd be another 8-3 team, but given their late season loss to USD they would be last among the 8-3 teams.

[WestCoastAggie]

How strong is UIW's SOS compared to the other bubble teams? I think they should get in at 9-2 but their SOS could be a reason why they're left out in the cold.

[grizband]

How strong is UIW's SOS compared to the other bubble teams? I think they should get in at 9-2 but their SOS could be a reason why they're left out in the cold.

Sagarin has Incarnate Word with a SOS of 202, out of 262 Division 1 teams in his rankings. Massey has UIW ranked as 81/128 for FCS strength of schedule.

For comparison, here are some other Massey SOS rankings for other playoff bubble teams. Granted, these are only teams with a 6-3 record, so it does not include the entire playoff bubble.

3 - Northern Iowa
12 - Southern Illinois
13 - Sacramento State
18 - North Dakota
19 - Youngstown State
22 - North Dakota State
28 - Central Arkansas
43 - Western Carolina
46 - Holy Cross
84 - Fordham
85 - Richmond

[TrooperCoats]

I get it is a pretty unrealistic scenario, but I'm not sure you can treat the records as apples to apples when UNI avoided both SIU and USD this year. The question would still be "who are the best wins?", not just "what is their conference record?".

[clenz]

I get it is a pretty unrealistic scenario, but I'm not sure you can treat the records as apples to apples when UNI avoided both SIU and USD this year. The question would still be "who are the best wins?", not just "what is their conference record?".
I put where NIU would rank in the FCS world based on Massey ratings in there for SIU

The bottom number is the average rank of teams beaten



UNI
SIU
USD


115
115
115


85
85
97


54
69
85


36
39
69


25
36
65


13
11
13


12
10
8


4
4
4


43
46.13
57



So UNI has the advantage in conference standings and average SOV.

OOC games only - which is where 2 of UNI's losses came - gives an advantage to SIU as they played 10, 39, and NIU would slot at 11.

UNI played 54, 20, and Iowa State would slot at #1 in the FCS ratings.

USD played 97, 65, and their FBS game would also slot at 1

Averages there? UNI 55 SIU 46.13 USD 75

I know you think you did something there, but you really didn't with that thought.

USD loses the SOS, SOR, and SOV to both UNI and USD.

"UNI avoided USD and SIU" - and still had a significantly higher SOS, SOR and SOV than USD. Both lost to SDSU in essentially identical methods, except UNI did it on the road. USD managed to give them free access to their back ends in their own stadium.

USD got the bottom 3 of the Valley in MUSU, WIU, ISUb and played St Thomas and Lamar OOC. That's 5 of your 11 games in the bottom half of the entirety of the FCS.

SIU got the entire bottom third of the Valley with ISUB, WIU, MUSU, MOSO.

UNI didn't get Murray State this year so they played 3 of the bottom 4 in MOSU, ISUB, and WIU just as USD did. However, rather than adding Lamar and St Thomas to that schedule they played 2 Big Sky teams OOC. We can start to do a cross-cancellation for UNI/USD OOC and see where both teams are 8-3 but the imbalance to get there comes in

ISU/Mizzou cancel as P5 losses
NAU/Idaho State cancel as basically equal Big Sky wins
Then it comes down to Weber vs PFL St. Thomas - and big advantage UNI

Should UNI have beat #20 in Massey Weber? Yes, probably. 7 turnovers in a game will sink you pretty damn hard. However, I'd say it's safe to say had UNI got the benefit of playing St. Thomas this year rather than Weber UNI would be looking at a shot to go 9-2 and had USD played Weber (and Weber played with the same fire they did against UNI) USD might be sitting at 6-3 right now just like UNI is playing the hypothetical get to 8 win game.

[SpreadTheWord]

How strong is UIW's SOS compared to the other bubble teams? I think they should get in at 9-2 but their SOS could be a reason why they're left out in the cold.

We don't deserve to get in.

[MSUBobcat]

How strong is UIW's SOS compared to the other bubble teams? I think they should get in at 9-2 but their SOS could be a reason why they're left out in the cold.

7-2, not 9-2. There is no game this weekend against NW State (cancelled) and they played non-counter NAIA North American University. They should absolutely be left in the cold. Their best win would probably be a 7pt road win over ACU, who may be under .500 at year end. For context, UCA beat ACU by 35, SUU beat them by 38.

[Silenoz]

Would Idaho receive a higher seed than Montana, based on the head-to-head game between the two teams?
It would make sense

Cal loss = SDSU loss >>> NAU loss

[F'N Hawks]

I doubt UND wins this weekend. They will be 7-4 (like every other year)

[kalm]

Just 2 week until Selection Sunday so time for an updated playoff prognostication. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs (or who's already in) to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining game I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).



Big Sky
Montana locked themselves in this week with a big win over Sac St and Idaho and Montana St kept trucking as they're only a win away from locking in their spot and might be in regardless. How the seeds break down amongst these teams will be interesting - if Montana St beats Montana as Massey predicts it could be a mess at the top with three 9-2 teams all 1-1 against each other. Massey thinks Idaho's next game at Weber St is closer to a toss up than most would think so that could throw another monkey wrench into things. That Sac St/UC Davis finale might be interesting if UC Davis wins and they both finish 7-4. UC Davis would have the head-to-head win but Sac St has that nice FBS/Pac-12 pelt - would there be enough room for both? I still think this league gets 4 bids this year and probably 3 seeds.

Locked in
Montana 8-1 (5-1) [1.22/0.78] - @Portland St (77%), Montana St (45%)

Likely in
Idaho 7-2 (5-1) [1.41/0.59] - @Weber St (52%), Idaho St (89%)
Montana St 7-2 (5-1) [1.34/0.66] - EWU (79%), @Montana (55%)

Work left to do
Sac St 6-3 (3-3) [1.51/0.49] - Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (54%)
UC Davis 5-4 (3-3) [1.22/0.78] - @Idaho St (76%), Sac St (46%)


CAA
Another week and another couple teams (UNH and Hampton) falling of this list of CAA playoff contenders. Delaware knocked themselves out of the top 4 seed conversation with their loss to Elon but are still just a win away from locking in their playoff spot. Both Nova and Albany picked up big wins that has them on the verge of locking in their spot as well. I'm having a hard time seeing more than one playoff bid, if that, from the group in the "work left to do category". Richmond/Elon and William & Mary/Richmond will be huge games these least two weeks and the loser of both of those games is likely out. I think even if URI wins out they're on the wrong side of the bubble. We'll see who can make it to Selection Sunday with 4 or fewer losses out of the CAA but I'm thinking 3-4 bids for the league is it with 3 more likely than 4.

Likely in
Delaware 7-2 (5-1) [1.33/0.67] - @Campbell (76%), Nova (57%)
Villanova 7-2 (5-1) [1.28/0.72] - Towson (85%), @Delaware (43%)
Albany 7-3 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - @SBU (94%), Monmouth (58%)

Work left to do
Richmond 6-3 (5-1) [1.06/0.94] - Elon (64%), @W&M (41%)
Elon 5-4 (5-1) [1.29/0.71] - @Richmond (36%), Hampton (93%)
William & Mary 5-4 (3-3) [1.48/0.52] - @Hamptom (89%), Richmond (59%)
Rhode Island 5-4 (3-3) [1.49/0.51] - NC A&T (90%), @Towson (59%)


MVFC
Another week closer to Selection Sunday and another week where the list of playoff contenders in the MVFC stays huge (what a difference from last year). SDSU is locked in and I'm thinking they're probably only one more win away from locking up the #1 seed as well. USD got a huge win @SIU and is tracking towards a decent seed. At least 2 in the group of NDSU/UNI/SIU is going to be at 4 losses or more come Selection Sunday - UNI probably has the best shot of those 3 at 7-4 but head-to-head matchups between them these last 2 weeks will loom large even though I tend to think all of them are in at 7-4. UND could also end up in the 7-4 group to make things even messier but if they lose to USD next week they're likely already playing a playoff game in week 12 vs Illinois St who hung on this list by a thread yesterday. YSU is yet another MVFC team likely to end up at 7-4 - their head-to-head win over SIU should help them but they lost to UNI and don't play NDSU or UND so it'll be tough to place them until we see who else is at 7-4 with them. 6 bids is looking more and more likely but it could drop to 5 or get all the way to 7 depending on how things shake out these last 2 weeks.

Locked in
SDSU 9-0 (6-0) [1.80/0.20] - @YSU (84%), Missouri St (95%)

Likely in
USD 7-2 (5-1) [1.52/0.48] - UND (54%), @WIU (97%)

Work left do to
NDSU 6-3 (3-3) [1.47/0.53] - SIU (80%), @UNI (67%)
UNI 6-3 (5-1) [0.97/1.03] - @Missouri St (63%), NDSU (33%)
SIU 6-3 (3-3) [1.19/0.81] - @NDSU (20%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 6-3 (4-2) [1.10/0.90] - @USD (46%), Illinois St (65%)
YSU 6-3 (4-2) [1.01/0.99] - SDSU (16%), @Murray St (85%)
Illinois St 5-4 (3-3) [1.26/0.74] - Murray St (91%), @UND (35%)


SOCON
Furman is the autobid here and is a massive favorite to finish 10-1 which probably gets them the #2 or #3 national seed. As for the rest they're in if they get to 8 wins but any and all of them would be on the bubble at 7-4. WCU is in the best shape of that group with 2 very winnable games to close out the season but they've been sputtering lately and might need some help if they drop one of those although head-to-head wins over Chattanooga and Samford may come in handy for them. Chattanooga is in the uneviable position of needing another win to lock themselves in and having to go to Bama for their final game so they're destined to be on the bubble at 7-4. Mercer and Samford play a coin flip game next week and if Samford wins they play what's likely another coin flip game in week 12 vs UTM. I'm not sure Samford will even be in at 7-4 with a sub-D1 win amongst those 7 wins but they could make a strong case. This league could still get anywhere from 2-4 bids IMO - it's just too early to tell.

Locked in
Furman 8-1 (6-0) [1.93/0.07] - VMI (98%), @Wofford (94%)

Work left to do
Western Carolina 6-3 (4-2) [1.46/0.54] - ETSU (72%), @VMI (74%)
Mercer 7-3 (5-2) [0.51/0.49] - Samford (51%)
Chattanooga 7-3 (6-2) [0.00/1.00] - @Bama (~0%)
Samford 5-4 (4-3) [0.99/1.01] - @Mercer (49%), UTM (50%)


Patriot
Lafayette's loss to Colgate yesterday turned this group upside down as Lafayette went from being on the fringe of a seed if they win out to now probably sitting on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose to Fordham next week (as Massey predicts). Holy Cross will be rooting for that to happen as one more league loss for Lafayette puts them back in the driver's seat for the autobid. They could take matters into their owns hands and essentially lock up a bid by beating Army next weekend but that's a tall order. I think Fordham is actually hurt by Lafayette's loss to Colgate because, even though Fordham can get above Lafayette in the playoff pecking order with a win next week, a win over Lafayette all of a sudden probably isn't a win over a playoff team like it looked like it would be last week. Whether the Patriot gets an at-large is probably a coin flip unless both HC and Lafayette win out.

Work left to do
Lafayette 7-2 (3-1) [1.18/0.82] - Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (73%)
Holy Cross 6-3 (4-1) [1.16/0.84] - @Army (22%), Georgetown (94%)
Fordham 6-3 (2-2) [1.21/0.79] - @Lafayette (54%), @Colgate (67%)



OVC/Big South
The OVC/Big South is still a mess - UTM barely avoided what would've been a crippling loss to TTU but SEMO didn't as they dropped a game to RMU meaning no one in this league (as far as I can tell) controls their own destiny for the autobid due to the fact that SEMO and G-W don't play each other. It seems like UTM's only path to the playoffs would be through an at-large since, if they beat SEMO next week, and G-W wins out they lose the tie breaker to G-W but if they get to 9-2 with that win and another win over Samford in week 12 they're looking good for a playoff bid no matter what. EIU and Tennessee St play an elimination game next week - I'm not sure TSU is in even if they finish 8-3 after an ugly loss to CSU yesterday. EIU could definitely make a case for an at-large at 8-3 but that head-to-head loss to UTM could bite them unless UTM snags the auto. It's possible this league gets an at-large especially if UTM and G-W win out but that'll be the most they can hope for.

Work left to do
UT Martin 7-2 (4-1) [1.03/0.97] - SEMO (53%), @Samford (50%)
EIU 6-3 (2-2) [1.51/0.49] - TSU (65%), @RMU (86%)
Tennessee St 6-3 (2-2) [1.03/0.97] - @EIU (35%), TTU (69%)
Gardner-Webb 5-4 (3-1) [1.39/0.61] - @TTU (63%), CSU (76%)
SEMO 4-5 (3-1) [1.21/0.79] - @UTM (47%), @Bryant (74%)


Others
I combined the SLC and UAC here but that's it for now as FAMU and NCCU kept their grips on their Celebration Bowl bids and the previous 2 leagues mentioned still have 3 or more teams in contention. You could see that UIW loss to Nicholls coming the way they'd been sputtering the last few weeks - I don't know what to make of UIW's at-large chances now. Their cancelled game vs NWSU now counts as a forfeit win but are they dinged for a sub-D1 win and a forfeit win if they win their finale against HCU??? Your guess is as good as mine but I think their at-large chances are sketchy. To get back in the conversation for the auto they need Lamar to beat Nicholls next week. The UAC is less tricky as both APSU and UCA control their own destiny. APSU might have a case for an at-large at 8-3 but I think they'd be in trouble - UCA is autobid or bust.

Work left to do
Austin Peay 7-2 (4-0) [1.54/0.46] - Utah Tech (89%), UCA (65%)
UCA 6-3 (3-1) [1.00/1.00] - EKU (65%), @APSU (35%)
Incarnate Word 7-2 (4-1) [0.90/0.10] - NWSU (100% - forfeit), @HCU (90%)
Nicholls 4-4 (5-0) [1.31/0.69] - Lamar (86%), @SLU (45%)


The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 2 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Idaho (9-2), Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (9-2), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 6 - SDSU (11-0), USD (9-2), NDSU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (10-1), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3), Chattanooga (7-4)

The other 6 autos:
Patriot: Holy Cross (7-4)
OVC/Big South: Gardner-Webb (7-4)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: Nicholls (5-5)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Furman (10-1)
3. Idaho (9-2)
4. Montana St (9-2)
5. USD (9-2)
6. Montana (9-2)
7. Delaware (9-2)
8. NDSU (8-3)

Last 4 in: UND (7-4), YSU (7-4), SIU (7-4), Chattanooga (7-4)
First 4 out: Fordham (8-3), Lafayette (8-3), UTM (8-3), UIW (8-2)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: EIU (8-3), TSU (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), UC Davis (6-5), Elon (6-5), Illinois St (6-5), Samford (6-5)

Some big movement in the projected seeds this week - this would be a tough draw for top seed SDSU since they'd probably have regular season rematches all the way until Frisco. A lot of tough decisions with this projected bubble as well - Fordham or Chattanooga was basically a coin flip for me. I still kinda doubt the committee gives the MVFC 7 bids and my logic is admittedly circular since I'm giving credit to these MVFC teams for wins over teams in my projected field which is easier to get when you have 7 teams from one conference in the projected field. Still it's tough to make a case for the projected 8 wins teams in weaker conferences over the proejected 7 win teams in the MVFC.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

Now wait just a second there, Mister. If Davis is still being mentioned at 6-5, then a 6-5 EWU with a win over Davis and this week against the Cats...on the road...with our run defense...

Yeah never mind. :D

Great work as always here. It's thoroughly appreciated.

[Catbooster]

Now wait just a second there, Mister. If Davis is still being mentioned at 6-5, then a 6-5 EWU with a win over Davis and this week against the Cats...on the road...with our run defense...

Yeah never mind. :D

Great work as always here. It's thoroughly appreciated.
Are you coming over here to the game?

[TrooperCoats]

I put where NIU would rank in the FCS world based on Massey ratings in there for SIU

The bottom number is the average rank of teams beaten



UNI
SIU
USD


115
115
115


85
85
97


54
69
85


36
39
69


25
36
65


13
11
13


12
10
8


4
4
4


43
46.13
57



So UNI has the advantage in conference standings and average SOV.

OOC games only - which is where 2 of UNI's losses came - gives an advantage to SIU as they played 10, 39, and NIU would slot at 11.

UNI played 54, 20, and Iowa State would slot at #1 in the FCS ratings.

USD played 97, 65, and their FBS game would also slot at 1

Averages there? UNI 55 SIU 46.13 USD 75

I know you think you did something there, but you really didn't with that thought.

USD loses the SOS, SOR, and SOV to both UNI and USD.

"UNI avoided USD and SIU" - and still had a significantly higher SOS, SOR and SOV than USD. Both lost to SDSU in essentially identical methods, except UNI did it on the road. USD managed to give them free access to their back ends in their own stadium.

USD got the bottom 3 of the Valley in MUSU, WIU, ISUb and played St Thomas and Lamar OOC. That's 5 of your 11 games in the bottom half of the entirety of the FCS.

SIU got the entire bottom third of the Valley with ISUB, WIU, MUSU, MOSO.

UNI didn't get Murray State this year so they played 3 of the bottom 4 in MOSU, ISUB, and WIU just as USD did. However, rather than adding Lamar and St Thomas to that schedule they played 2 Big Sky teams OOC. We can start to do a cross-cancellation for UNI/USD OOC and see where both teams are 8-3 but the imbalance to get there comes in

ISU/Mizzou cancel as P5 losses
NAU/Idaho State cancel as basically equal Big Sky wins
Then it comes down to Weber vs PFL St. Thomas - and big advantage UNI

Should UNI have beat #20 in Massey Weber? Yes, probably. 7 turnovers in a game will sink you pretty damn hard. However, I'd say it's safe to say had UNI got the benefit of playing St. Thomas this year rather than Weber UNI would be looking at a shot to go 9-2 and had USD played Weber (and Weber played with the same fire they did against UNI) USD might be sitting at 6-3 right now just like UNI is playing the hypothetical get to 8 win game.

OK. First - I apologize - I meant to reply to Chalupa's post, not yours. But at some point people watch games, not take averages of SOS, which is what I was referring to. I don't think a ton of people would pick UNI to beat both USD and/or SIU, so comparing YSU, UNI, and UND is not apples to apples.

[FUBeAR]

So...FUBeAR was listening to Sam Herder's podcast and heard the Committee Chair - Montana's (of course) AD being interviewed and he said the Committee is 'test driving' KPI (which stands for Kevin Pauga Index - Pauga is a Sports Nerd, who worked his way up from Student Manager to Assoc AD @ Michigan State and he developed this for hoops initially) ... FUBeAR thinks it looks like an even less accurate Massey and FUBeAR don't like it, but since the Committee is "test driving" it...it, undoubtedly, will still influence their decisions...even though the Chair said it won't....

So, let's see how KPI would compile the Playoff Field....right now...using highest rank Team from a Conference as the Projected AutoBid. BOLD is IN. Red shows the total number of Teams from that Conference IN the field



KPI
Team
Playoff Status / Notes
Conf
KPI #
W/L


1
South Dakota State
#1 Seed - 1AutoBid 1
1 - MVFC
0.689
9 - 0


2
Harvard
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.369
7 - 1


3
South Dakota
#2 Seed - 1At-Large 2
2 - MVFC
0.356
7 - 2


4
Montana
#3 Seed - 2AutoBid 3
1 - Big Sky
0.293
8 - 1


5
Idaho
#4 Seed - 2At-Large 4
2 - Big Sky
0.266
7 - 2


6
Furman
#5 Seed - 3AutoBid 5
1 - SoCon
0.264
8 - 1


7
Florida A&M
CELEBRATION BOWL
SWAC
0.241
8 - 1


8
Montana State
#6 Seed - 3At-Large 6
3 - Big Sky
0.236
7 - 2


9
Holy Cross
#7 Seed - 4AutoBid 7
1 - Patriot
0.208
6 - 3


10
Albany
#8 Seed - 5AutoBid 8
1 - CAA
0.202
7 - 3


11
Penn
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.202
6 - 2


12
Lafayette
4At-Large 9
2 - Patriot
0.197
7 - 2


13
Villanova
5At-Large 10
2 - CAA
0.193
7 - 2


14
North Dakota
6At-Large 11
3 - MVFC
0.187
6 - 3


15
Tennessee-Martin
6AutoBid 12
1 - Big South / OVC
0.187
7 - 2


16
Austin Peay
7AutoBid 13
1 - UAC
0.166
7 - 2


38
Non-FCS
NO IDEA WTF?
Non D-I
0.162
111 - 29


17
Drake
8AutoBid 14
1 - Pioneer
0.161
6 - 3


18
Southern Illinois
7At-Large 15
4 - MVFC
0.159
6 - 3


19
Delaware
8At-Large 16
3 - CAA
0.151
7 - 2


20
St. Thomas (MN)
INELIGIBLE
Pioneer
0.148
6 - 3


21
Northern Iowa
9At-Large 17
5 - MVFC
0.145
6 - 3


22
Elon
10At-Large 18
4 - CAA
0.143
5 - 4


23
Western Carolina
11At-Large 19
2 - SoCon
0.142
6 - 3


24
North Dakota State
12At-Large 20
6 - MVFC
0.141
6 - 3


25
Yale
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.141
5 - 3


26
Gardner-Webb
13At-Large 21
2 - Big South / OVC
0.138
5 - 4


27
North Carolina Central
CELEBRATION BOWL
MEAC
0.137
8 - 1


28
Alabama State
14At-Large 22
1 - SWAC
0.137
5 - 3


29
Youngstown State
Last Out
MVFC
0.13
6 - 3


30
Davidson
Next to Last Out
Pioneer
0.126
7 - 2


31
Central Arkansas
Next to Next to Last Out
ASUN
0.116
6 - 3


32
Princeton
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.115
4 - 4


33
Brown
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.107
4 - 4


34
Sacramento State
Next to Next to Next to Last Out
Big Sky
0.107
6 - 3


35
Dartmouth
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.105
4 - 4


36
Chattanooga

SoCon
0.104
7 - 3


37
Mercer

SoCon
0.102
7 - 3


39
Colgate

Patriot
0.100
4 - 5


40
Jackson State

SWAC
0.082
7 - 3


41
Butler

Pioneer
0.079
7 - 3


42
Rhode Island

CAA
0.072
5 - 4


43
Incarnate Word
9AutoBid 23
1 - Southland
0.066
7 - 2


...







64
Duquesne
10AutoBid 24
1 - NEC
0.004
6 - 3




What y'all think?

FUBeAR thinks the Committee needs to look elsewhere - this system dang near would have 3 or 4 PFL Teams in the field ... hey, maybe try watching some games!

[caribbeanhen]

St Thomas of Mn over UNI

Florida A&M over Montana St

gong

[FUBeAR]

St Thomas of Mn over UNI

Florida A&M over Montana St

gong
How ‘bout Sac State behind Davidson?

Personally, FUBeAR thinks that one is pretty accurate, but the AGS Big Sky/MVFC Bloc may blow a carotid when they see it.

[stonemd]

How about SOS of games won? Evaluates quality wins
anybody can lose to a good team
overall SOS is just used to explain poor winning%

[caribbeanhen]

How ‘bout Sac State behind Davidson?

Personally, FUBeAR thinks that one is pretty accurate, but the AGS Big Sky/MVFC Bloc may blow a carotid when they see it.

Yep that too

Alabama St in playoffs… that would be interesting

[ElCid]

So...FUBeAR was listening to Sam Herder's podcast and heard the Committee Chair - Montana's (of course) AD being interviewed and he said the Committee is 'test driving' KPI (which stands for Kevin Pauga Index - Pauga is a Sports Nerd, who worked his way up from Student Manager to Assoc AD @ Michigan State and he developed this for hoops initially) ... FUBeAR thinks it looks like an even less accurate Massey and FUBeAR don't like it, but since the Committee is "test driving" it...it, undoubtedly, will still influence their decisions...even though the Chair said it won't....

So, let's see how KPI would compile the Playoff Field....right now...using highest rank Team from a Conference as the Projected AutoBid. BOLD is IN. Red shows the total number of Teams from that Conference IN the field



KPI
Team
Playoff Status / Notes
Conf
KPI #
W/L


1
South Dakota State
#1 Seed - 1AutoBid 1
1 - MVFC
0.689
9 - 0


2
Harvard
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.369
7 - 1


3
South Dakota
#2 Seed - 1At-Large 2
2 - MVFC
0.356
7 - 2


4
Montana
#3 Seed - 2AutoBid 3
1 - Big Sky
0.293
8 - 1


5
Idaho
#4 Seed - 2At-Large 4
2 - Big Sky
0.266
7 - 2


6
Furman
#5 Seed - 3AutoBid 5
1 - SoCon
0.264
8 - 1


7
Florida A&M
CELEBRATION BOWL
SWAC
0.241
8 - 1


8
Montana State
#6 Seed - 3At-Large 6
3 - Big Sky
0.236
7 - 2


9
Holy Cross
#7 Seed - 4AutoBid 7
1 - Patriot
0.208
6 - 3


10
Albany
#8 Seed - 5AutoBid 8
1 - CAA
0.202
7 - 3


11
Penn
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.202
6 - 2


12
Lafayette
4At-Large 9
2 - Patriot
0.197
7 - 2


13
Villanova
5At-Large 10
2 - CAA
0.193
7 - 2


14
North Dakota
6At-Large 11
3 - MVFC
0.187
6 - 3


15
Tennessee-Martin
6AutoBid 12
1 - Big South / OVC
0.187
7 - 2


16
Austin Peay
7AutoBid 13
1 - UAC
0.166
7 - 2


38
Non-FCS
NO IDEA WTF?
Non D-I
0.162
111 - 29


17
Drake
8AutoBid 14
1 - Pioneer
0.161
6 - 3


18
Southern Illinois
7At-Large 15
4 - MVFC
0.159
6 - 3


19
Delaware
8At-Large 16
3 - CAA
0.151
7 - 2


20
St. Thomas (MN)
INELIGIBLE
Pioneer
0.148
6 - 3


21
Northern Iowa
9At-Large 17
5 - MVFC
0.145
6 - 3


22
Elon
10At-Large 18
4 - CAA
0.143
5 - 4


23
Western Carolina
11At-Large 19
2 - SoCon
0.142
6 - 3


24
North Dakota State
12At-Large 20
6 - MVFC
0.141
6 - 3


25
Yale
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.141
5 - 3


26
Gardner-Webb
13At-Large 21
2 - Big South / OVC
0.138
5 - 4


27
North Carolina Central
CELEBRATION BOWL
MEAC
0.137
8 - 1


28
Alabama State
14At-Large 22
1 - SWAC
0.137
5 - 3


29
Youngstown State
Last Out
MVFC
0.13
6 - 3


30
Davidson
Next to Last Out
Pioneer
0.126
7 - 2


31
Central Arkansas
Next to Next to Last Out
ASUN
0.116
6 - 3


32
Princeton
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.115
4 - 4


33
Brown
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.107
4 - 4


34
Sacramento State
Next to Next to Next to Last Out
Big Sky
0.107
6 - 3


35
Dartmouth
DO NOT PARTICIPATE
Ivy
0.105
4 - 4


36
Chattanooga

SoCon
0.104
7 - 3


37
Mercer

SoCon
0.102
7 - 3


39
Colgate

Patriot
0.100
4 - 5


40
Jackson State

SWAC
0.082
7 - 3


41
Butler

Pioneer
0.079
7 - 3


42
Rhode Island

CAA
0.072
5 - 4


43
Incarnate Word
9AutoBid 23
1 - Southland
0.066
7 - 2


...







64
Duquesne
10AutoBid 24
1 - NEC
0.004
6 - 3




What y'all think?

FUBeAR thinks the Committee needs to look elsewhere - this system dang near would have 3 or 4 PFL Teams in the field ... hey, maybe try watching some games!

It's garbage. I had a whole explanation written out but I lost it. To summarize, it just looks at game by game results. It doesn't appear to update for results of previous games played. If you beat a 4-0 team that ends up being 4-7, you won't lose any standing for that earlier apparent good win. Doesn't matter that a team might be 4-0 by playing the Sisters of Charity. And it looks like record is most important. So it looks like some RPI variation. Something that the committee seems to have liked in the past. And I have no idea where everyone starts. He doesn't say. However, without a thorough explanation by him, I am just speculating by analyzing it by sampling specific results of games each week for various teams.

If I was to guess, I suspect this guy did some politicking to push his little index to insiders while trying to make a name for himself.

However, I do think I solved your "non FCS WTF" issue. It is the average of all non FCS teams played (FBS, DIV II, III, NAIA, etc. That would be average based on using his formulas.

[Professor Chaos]

So...FUBeAR was listening to Sam Herder's podcast and heard the Committee Chair - Montana's (of course) AD being interviewed and he said the Committee is 'test driving' KPI (which stands for Kevin Pauga Index - Pauga is a Sports Nerd, who worked his way up from Student Manager to Assoc AD @ Michigan State and he developed this for hoops initially) ... FUBeAR thinks it looks like an even less accurate Massey and FUBeAR don't like it, but since the Committee is "test driving" it...it, undoubtedly, will still influence their decisions...even though the Chair said it won't....

So, let's see how KPI would compile the Playoff Field....right now...using highest rank Team from a Conference as the Projected AutoBid. BOLD is IN. Red shows the total number of Teams from that Conference IN the field

What y'all think?

FUBeAR thinks the Committee needs to look elsewhere - this system dang near would have 3 or 4 PFL Teams in the field ... hey, maybe try watching some games!
If they were looking for a way to get people to say "maybe the SRS wasn't so bad" this would be it.

[FUBeAR]

It's garbage. I had a whole explanation written out but I lost it. To summarize, it just looks at game by game results. It doesn't appear to update for results of previous games played. If you beat a 4-0 team that ends up being 4-7, you won't lose any standing for that earlier apparent good win. Doesn't matter that a team might be 4-0 by playing the Sisters of Charity. And it looks like record is most important. So it looks like some RPI variation. Something that the committee seems to have liked in the past. And I have no idea where everyone starts. He doesn't say. However, without a thorough explanation by him, I am just speculating by analyzing it by sampling specific results of games each week for various teams.

If I was to guess, I suspect this guy did some politicking to push his little index to insiders while trying to make a name for himself.

However, I do think I solved your "non FCS WTF" issue. It is the average of all non FCS teams played (FBS, DIV II, III, NAIA, etc. That would be average based on using his formulas.
2 things...

1) LOL - "I suspect this guy did some politicking to push his little index to insiders while trying to make a name for himself" - Even though ElCid is an inferior bellhop and FUBeAR is a superior Paladin, our minds run on similar tracks occasionally. FUBeAR did a bit of a 'background check' on this dude - figured his Daddy is an NCAA Executive or something similar...results, so far, are inconclusive...but there's something 'smelly' about this...ElCid and FUBeAR KNOW.

2) "I solved your "non FCS WTF" issue. It is the average of all non FCS teams played (FBS, DIV II, III, NAIA, etc. That would be average based on using his formulas." - Um...OK...now why is this average 'ranked' "#38" when the "KPI#" would rank 17th...where it is shown...and there is no "#38" between "#37" and "#39" ??? WTF???

[FUBeAR]

If they were looking for a way to get people to say "maybe the SRS wasn't so bad" this would be it.
FUBeAR thinks the fact that the Chair of this Committee being willing to publicly (and proudly, IFBO) announce they are considering using this sucking wound of a 'system' as a primary tool in their deliberations, knowing what is currently reflected, tells FUBeAR all he needs to know about the likelihood this Committee is going to 'get it right' this year. Not a chance in hades!

#DefundTheCommittee

[caribbeanhen]

“figured his Daddy is an NCAA Executive or something similar...results, so far, are inconclusive...but there's something 'smelly' about this...ElCid and FUBeAR KNOW”

Reply with quote running slower than a Southern Conference QB but anyway, I find the answer to this insightful prognostication intriguing enough to jump in

[ElCid]

2 things...

1) LOL - "I suspect this guy did some politicking to push his little index to insiders while trying to make a name for himself" - Even though ElCid is an inferior bellhop and FUBeAR is a superior Paladin, our minds run on similar tracks occasionally. FUBeAR did a bit of a 'background check' on this dude - figured his Daddy is an NCAA Executive or something similar...results, so far, are inconclusive...but there's something 'smelly' about this...ElCid and FUBeAR KNOW.

2) "I solved your "non FCS WTF" issue. It is the average of all non FCS teams played (FBS, DIV II, III, NAIA, etc. That would be average based on using his formulas." - Um...OK...now why is this average 'ranked' "#38" when the "KPI#" would rank 17th...where it is shown...and there is no "#38" between "#37" and "#39" ??? WTF???

To answer you last question, because he has a rinky dink operation that provides no methodology or explanations and is just hoping it catches on or it was made to order.

This is exactly the type of little hobbyist, who created some algorithm hoping to make a mark, that I warned about being used in the Massey composite. We have no idea what little tweaks are imbedded in it, or simply a general "baked in" bias, that results in certain schools or conferences being propped up for a desired result. It might be the committee specifically wanted something like this.

My God, look at some of the results. They are comical.