More Likely Fate for NDSU?

[smilo]

I must say, I was pretty shocked to see arguments prior to this week that NDSU deserved to be in the conversation for a national seed when they have a blowout loss to a bubble team. The USD loss is looking better, but I still don't think this team has the talent to win both of their final two tossup games. I have them about five spots lower than consensus so maybe I am out of line.

But SIU is clearly in a tier above for me, and it's a coin flip at the Fargo Dome.
UNI has been adjacent to the ND schools in my poll, hampered by the Weber loss, but they look almost evenly matched, and it is a road game.

The 7 and 8 seeds look completely up for grabs, so 2 wins may mean a seed and 2 losses should knock the Bison out with enough teams from quality conferences having 7 D1 wins.

So what do y'all think is more likely? 2 wins and a bye or 2 losses and an early winter?

[Bisonoline]

What about just making the playoffs with no seed?

[bonarae]

Will we jeer or make xhurrayx when they are left out come selection Sunday? xchinscratchx

[smilo]

What about just making the playoffs with no seed?

If both games indeed have ~50 percent probability, then this outcome has 50 percent probability. This is objectively the most likely outcome

The second most likely outcome is up for debate. Arguably each is 20-30 percent chance.

[Professor Chaos]

2 wins more likely than 2 losses. Whether that's good enough for a national seed is TBD but they'll likely be below either USD or UND (whoever wins the matchup of those 2 next week) so an 8 seed might be the best they can hope for.

Seeds this year are going to be tricky I think. The bar for a 4 seed or a 6 seed or and an 8 seed is going to be lower than it typically has been in past years I think.

[JacksFan40]

I can’t see the Bison sweeping SIU and UNI, so I guess 6-5 is more likely.

[NY Crusader 2010]

6-5 more likely.

I see the Bison winning one and being in the playoffs. Would they get any home games at 7-4?

[Gil Dobie]

6-5 more likely.

I see the Bison winning one and being in the playoffs. Would they get any home games at 7-4?

They would likely outbid anyone for a first round home game, if they make the playoffs. I'm on the 6-5 train but would be happy to get a first round game at 7-4.

[Hammerhead]

I voted for 6-5, but think they will win one and play in the opening round and then getting sent to one of the other schools in the Dakotas in round 2.

[POD Knows]

They don’t deserve to be in the playoffs at 7-4. If they beat SIU lose to UNI, who are their good wins, it is a pretty weak resume honestly but they will probably sneak into the playoffs, get a laugher in the first home playoff game and lose the next road game to a seeded team.

Their D cannot stop any offense that has a pulse and they are too inconsistent on offense and lack discipline on that side of the ball. The defense and the special teams are a train wreck right now.

[Christiank22]

I must say, I was pretty shocked to see arguments prior to this week that NDSU deserved to be in the conversation for a national seed when they have a blowout loss to a bubble team. The USD loss is looking better, but I still don't think this team has the talent to win both of their final two tossup games. I have them about five spots lower than consensus so maybe I am out of line.

But SIU is clearly in a tier above for me, and it's a coin flip at the Fargo Dome.
UNI has been adjacent to the ND schools in my poll, hampered by the Weber loss, but they look almost evenly matched, and it is a road game.

The 7 and 8 seeds look completely up for grabs, so 2 wins may mean a seed and 2 losses should knock the Bison out with enough teams from quality conferences having 7 D1 wins.

So what do y'all think is more likely? 2 wins and a bye or 2 losses and an early winter?

This NDSU squad is at best a fringe top 25. They have no business even being in playoff discussions in my opinion. I haven’t seen such inept football outside of Western Illinois this whole season. Hell even Murray state has more to build on. There is absolutely nothing NDSU does well.

[OhioHen]

Two losses more likely than two wins, and even with the two wins a seed isn't guaranteed.

Most likely scenario is one win and one loss and getting a home game on Thanksgiving weekend before going to SDSU for another beatdown.

[Christiank22]

Two losses more likely than two wins, and even with the two wins a seed isn't guaranteed.

Most likely scenario is one win and one loss and getting a home game on Thanksgiving weekend before going to SDSU for another beatdown.

We ain’t in the playoffs with another loss. I don’t really think we deserve to be in the playoffs even if we go 2-0 in the next 2 tbh

[smilo]

This NDSU squad is at best a fringe top 25. They have no business even being in playoff discussions in my opinion. I haven’t seen such inept football outside of Western Illinois this whole season. Hell even Murray state has more to build on. There is absolutely nothing NDSU does well.

I think you underestimate how bad the FCS is this year.

[POD Knows]

We ain’t in the playoffs with another loss. I don’t really think we deserve to be in the playoffs even if we go 2-0 in the next 2 tbhJFC, seriously, an 8-3 Bison team with W's over SIU and UNI isn't playoff worthy, I am not even that negative on this team. I do believe that they need to win both games to get in the playoffs but I imagine there is enough grift to get them in at 7-4.

[Christiank22]

JFC, seriously, an 8-3 Bison team with W's over SIU and UNI isn't playoff worthy, I am not even that negative on this team. I do believe that they need to win both games to get in the playoffs but I imagine there is enough grift to get them in at 7-4.

The product on the field just sucks. I genuinely think any season outside this season and this NDSU team has a losing record.

[POD Knows]

The product on the field just sucks. I genuinely think any season outside this season and this NDSU team has a losing record.I watch I lot of other football games and the product sucks in a lot of places, watched the UIW/Nicholls game yesterday, brutal to watch, terrible, NDSU would boat race both those teams and Nicholls is undefeated in that conference.

I agree on the NDSU on field product, the D is as bad as it gets, they simply cannot defend any type of slant route and that has been happening over and over again all year. Used to have pretty decent special teams and now I cringe when they walk on the field. The offense has its moments and then somebody will drop a pass in a critical situation (the Nelson drop at the goal line yesterday was huge) or a penalty (real or imagined) will happen and kill drives. They are frustrating to watch.

[skinny_uncle]

There should have been an option for 1-1 which I consider the most likely outcome. With SIU. it depends on who is healthy. I did not like the way Cox landed in the endzone at the end of the game. UNI is overdue to lay an egg.

[POD Knows]

There should have been an option for 1-1 which I consider the most likely outcome. With SIU. it depends on who is healthy. I did not like the way Cox landed in the endzone at the end of the game. UNI is overdue to lay an egg.
If NDSU beats SIU at home and then loses at UNI, do you think they should have a playoff spot? I am doing my AGS poll now and there is a lot of hot garbage out there but that resume is Michelob Lite bad.

[caribbeanhen]

I think you underestimate how bad the FCS is this year.

this

[caribbeanhen]

If NDSU beats SIU at home and then loses at UNI, do you think they should have a playoff spot? I am doing my AGS poll now and there is a lot of hot garbage out there but that resume is Michelob Lite bad.

I’m having trouble finding enough teams, I might have rank The Rattlers but don’t tell PWO

[crusader11]

In discussion for a seed at 8-3.

Comfortably in at 7-4.

Out at 6-5.

[The Yo Show]

I personally think it's likely that NDSU beats SIU and loses to UNI going 7-4

- - - Updated - - -

If YSU and NDSU both go 7-4 who gets left out?

[Professor Chaos]

I personally think it's likely that NDSU beats SIU and loses to UNI going 7-4

- - - Updated - - -

If YSU and NDSU both go 7-4 who gets left out?
That would be a tough one. They'd be very similar but NDSU would have an extra conference/FCS loss (to a UND team that YSU didn't play) although NDSU also would have better OOC wins. I'd hope neither are left out at 7-4 but it would be coin flip if one was.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

IMO, NDSU goes 2-0 to end the season. A seed? Possibility depending on the rest of the FCS and how it shakes out.

[MR. CHICKEN]

........IFIN' BIZONSSSSS COOD BEAT....CENTRAL ARKANSAS........THEY COOD BEAT....S. ILL/N.IOWA........BRAWK!

[mvfcfan]

My guess is NDSU beats SIU and then the game at UNI is probably a toss up. If NDSU makes the playoffs at 7-4 they will still get a home game because they'll bid high enough to get one. If they go 8-3 they probably eek out a 7 or 8 seed.

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting observation I had getting my stats comparison Power BI report ready ahead of the playoff matchups being announced; NDSU is 3rd in the FCS in points-per-game differential (+16.2), 4th in the FCS in yards-per-game differential (+161), and 5th in the FCS in yards per play differential (+1.79). That's with the 19th ranked SoS so far (according to Massey).... maybe this Bison team isn't as bad as we all thought???

[SeattleCat]

They don’t deserve to be in the playoffs at 7-4. If they beat SIU lose to UNI, who are their good wins, it is a pretty weak resume honestly but they will probably sneak into the playoffs, get a laugher in the first home playoff game and lose the next road game to a seeded team.

Their D cannot stop any offense that has a pulse and they are too inconsistent on offense and lack discipline on that side of the ball. The defense and the special teams are a train wreck right now.

The Bizon might be down, but they're still a top at least 15 team, I think I have them at 10. They'll make the playoff but don't deserve a seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the Quarters.

[MSUBobcat]

Interesting observation I had getting my stats comparison Power BI report ready ahead of the playoff matchups being announced; NDSU is 3rd in the FCS in points-per-game differential (+16.2), 4th in the FCS in yards-per-game differential (+161), and 5th in the FCS in yards per play differential (+1.79). That's with the 19th ranked SoS so far (according to Massey).... maybe this Bison team isn't as bad as we all thought???

Maybe the Bizun fans are just superb sandbaggers??? SDSU and USD are really good, so those aren't terrible losses. The UND loss was surprising, especially the nature of it, but on the road against a good team in a rivalry game doesn't mean NDSU is as bad as all the sky-is-falling fans would have you believe.

[Professor Chaos]

Maybe the Bizun fans are just superb sandbaggers??? SDSU and USD are really good, so those aren't terrible losses. The UND loss was surprising, especially the nature of it, but on the road against a good team in a rivalry game doesn't mean NDSU is as bad as all the sky-is-falling fans would have you believe.
I don't know if it's sandbagging or spoil'dry (new word) but if every team was held to the standards that NDSU seems to be when it comes to being worthy of a playoff spot there would be about 8 worthy FCS playoff teams I think.

On a related note I'm still not sold on USD. They deserve to get a nice seed for the season they've had but mark me down as a non-believer when it comes to their ability to make a deep playoff run.

[caribbeanhen]

I don't know if it's sandbagging or spoil'dry (new word) but if every team was held to the standards that NDSU seems to be when it comes to being worthy of a playoff spot there would be about 8 worthy FCS playoff teams I think.

On a related note I'm still not sold on USD. They deserve to get a nice seed for the season they've had but mark me down as a non-believer when it comes to their ability to make a deep playoff run.

Me either just yet, they just don’t meet the Behemoth requirements. Right now FCS only has one of those.

[POD Knows]

Me either just yet, they just don’t meet the Behemoth requirements. Right now FCS only has one of those.Told you guys earlier that SDSU is a generational team, they are gonna fly through the playoffs and everybody else is a wannabe. After this is done, they will be looked at as one of the greatest FCS teams ever. No doubt in my mind, they have stars at virtually every position. They bitch slapped a pretty good team, YSU, on their own field in a must win deal for YSU. Nobody is close, they are separated further from the competition than any of the Bison teams during the their run, the gap is HUGE.

[caribbeanhen]

Told you guys earlier that SDSU is a generational team, they are gonna fly through the playoffs and everybody else is a wannabe. After this is done, they will be looked at as one of the greatest FCS teams ever. No doubt in my mind, they have stars at virtually every position. They bitch slapped a pretty good team, YSU, on their own field in a must win deal for YSU. Nobody is close, they are separated further from the competition than any of the Bison teams during the their run, the gap is HUGE.

lots of truth here and I don’t really disagree but just wait till the Montana State fans read it.

I think they have a punchers chance

[Christiank22]

Told you guys earlier that SDSU is a generational team, they are gonna fly through the playoffs and everybody else is a wannabe. After this is done, they will be looked at as one of the greatest FCS teams ever. No doubt in my mind, they have stars at virtually every position. They bitch slapped a pretty good team, YSU, on their own field in a must win deal for YSU. Nobody is close, they are separated further from the competition than any of the Bison teams during the their run, the gap is HUGE.

This might be the saddest thing you’ve ever posted lmao.

[POD Knows]

lots of truth here and I don’t really disagree but just wait till the Montana State fans read it.

I think they have a punchers chanceMontana State is gonna lose at Missoula this weekend. And their OOC wins were against Utah Tech and freaking Stetson. If MSU loses to Montana and NDSU beats UNI, then NDSU deserves a seed over MSU. All of that is a big if but who knows.

[Christiank22]

Montana State is gonna lose at Missoula this weekend. And their OOC wins were against Utah Tech and freaking Stetson. If MSU loses to Montana and NDSU beats UNI, then NDSU deserves a seed over MSU. All of that is a big if but who knows.

It took an injury to the starting Qb and every bounce going SDSU’s way to barely beat Montana State in brookings.

[POD Knows]

It took an injury to the starting Qb and every bounce going SDSU’s way to barely beat Montana State in brookings.Really, ancient history, SDSU is gonna walk through this thing, just watch and then you can take your ****ing 600 posts since 2013 and drag your ass outta here. You don't know **** about anything, now, am I serious or just working karma. Oh baby, the mysteries of the universe.

[JacksFan40]

It took an injury to the starting Qb and every bounce going SDSU’s way to barely beat Montana State in brookings.
We also beat them by 21 in last years semis. We started 2022 slow as well losing to Iowa and only beating UC-Davis by 2. Not saying we’ll run through the playoffs like last time, but it’s certainly possible.

[POD Knows]

We also beat them by 21 in last years semis. We started 2022 slow as well losing to Iowa and only beating UC-Davis by 2. Not saying we’ll run through the playoffs like last time, but it’s certainly possible.
It was the most lopsided 21 point game in the history of 21 point games. The early 2023 game was a fluke, SDSU should have lost that game but teams of destiny win games that they should lose.