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Professor Chaos
October 29th, 2023, 11:16 AM
3 weeks and closing until Selection Sunday so time for an updated playoff prognostication. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game. Using Massey percentages to project the remaining game I put together what I think would be the field at the bottom of this post if it all played out like it's supposed to (which we all know it won't).



Big Sky
There's basically 4 teams in contention here as UC Davis and Portland St play an elimination game this week and probably only UC Davis has a realistic shot at 7-4 which still puts them at the mercy of the bubble which is looking pretty tough. Idaho's big win last week sets them up for a nice seed if they win out but Montana St can still get back to the top of this heap if they also win out. Montana matches up with 2 of the other top 3 in these last 3 weeks (and @Portland St won't be a gimme either) so they could still play themselves up to a top 2 seed or down to the bubble. Sac St is still in decent shape since they don't need a win in Missoula this week but getting one would basically lock them in. I think this league gets 4 bids this year and up to 3 seeds.

Likely in
Montana St 6-2 (4-1) [2.28/0.78] - NAU (89%), EWU (80%), @Montana (59%)
Montana 7-1 (4-1) [1.71/1.29] - Sac St (57%), @Portland St (73%), Montana St (41%)
Idaho 6-2 (4-1) [2.39/0.61] - @UNC (96%), @Weber St (54%), Idaho St (89%)

Trending towards in
Sac St 6-2 (3-2) [1.99/1.01] - @Montana (43%), Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (59%)

Work left to do
UC Davis 4-4 (2-3) [1.86/1.14] - Portland St (69%), @Idaho St (75%), Sac St (41%)
Portland St 4-4 (3-2) [1.33/1.67] - @UC Davis (31%), Montana (27%), @UNC (75%)


CAA
The playoff contenders in the CAA thinned yesterday with Monmouth, Towson, and Campbell all bowing out. The problem with this league is there's so many teams already right on the bubble that they're going to knock each other out which softens the bubble but it also devalues the wins for the teams that got them since they were against teams now out of contention. Delaware is still looking very good and tracking towards a high seed. I'm starting to wonder if 7 wins will even be enough for Nova or Albany so each might need to win 2 of their last which could be iffy. William & Mary and Richmond are in if they win out but I think they're on even tougher footing if they only get to 7 wins. The rest need to win out and even then I'm not sure it'll be enough. A lot still depends on who amongst these CAA bubble teams is still standing at 7-4 come Selection Sunday and then the head-to-head wins amongst that group will be magnified. I'm thinking 3-4 bids is all this list of contenders in this league can hope for this year.

Likely in
Delaware 7-1 (5-0) [2.22/0.78] - Elon (81%), @Campbell (77%), Nova (64%)

Trending towards in
Villanova 6-2 (4-1) [1.75/1.25] - @UNH (54%), Towson (85%), @Delaware (36%)
Albany 6-3 (4-1) [2.08/0.92] - W&M (58%), @SBU (91%), Monmouth (59%)

Work left to do
William & Mary 5-3 (3-2) [1.94/1.06] - @Albany (42%), @Hamptom (92%), Richmond (60%)
Richmond 6-3 (5-1) [1.09/0.91] - Elon (69%), @W&M (40%)
Rhode Island 5-4 (3-3) [1.51/0.49] - NC A&T (90%), @Towson (61%)
Elon 4-4 (4-1) [1.43/1.57] - @Delaware (19%), @Richmond (31%), Hampton (94%)
New Hampshire 4-4 (2-3) [1.68/1.32] - Nova (46%), @Monmouth (48%), Maine (74%)
Hampton 4-4 (2-3) [0.36/2.64] - @Maine (21%), W&M (8%), @Elon (6%)


MVFC
The MVFC is still looking like it could hoard a ton of at-large bids (as many as 6) if things play out according to the Massey percentages - which they did last week. SDSU is the first lock in the field IMO and Massey like SIU's chances to get 8 wins which puts them easily in. USD and NDSU have some big tests coming up but they probably each only need to win one to get in although they'll put their fates on the bubble at 7-4. UND won yesterday but their numbers took a hit and Massey now projects them to lose to USD which took them from a low seed last week to shaky footing on the bubble this week. UNI continues to plug along and might get to that last game vs NDSU at 7-3 (6-1) which should get them regardless of how that game turns out and seeded if they win out. Even YSU has a manageable path to 7 wins although I think they'd be squarely on the bubble in that case. Illinois St is probably not going to make it to Selection Sunday with 4 losses but if they do they could make it in (which would likely knock out UND). I think 5 bids is the floor for the MVFC this year with a decent shot at 6 and even 7 is possible.

Locked in
SDSU 8-0 (5-0) [2.50/0.50] - NDSU (73%), @YSU (82%), Missouri St (95%)

Likely in
SIU 6-2 (3-2) [2.02/0.98] - USD (81%), @NDSU (22%), Indiana St (99%)

Trending towards in
USD 6-2 (4-1) [1.65/1.35] - @SIU (19%), UND (50%), @WIU (96%)
NDSU 6-2 (3-2) [1.74/1.26] - @SDSU (27%), SIU (78%), @UNI (70%)

Work left do to
UNI 5-3 (4-1) [1.89/1.11] - WIU (98%), @Missouri St (61%), NDSU (30%)
UND 5-3 (3-2) [2.05/0.95] - @Murray St (88%), @USD (50%), Illinois St (67%)
YSU 5-3 (3-2) [1.87/1.13] - @Indiana St (84%), SDSU (18%), @Murray St (85%)
Illinois St 4-4 (2-3) [1.70/1.30] - @Missouri St (45%), Murray St (93%), @UND (33%)


SOCON
Mercer's big win over WCU complicates things a bit in the SOCON. Furman and Chattanooga play the de facto conference title game this Saturday - Massey still likes UTC at home and if that happens things get a little simpler and could get the SOCON an extra playoff bid IMO. If Furman wins that jumble of UTC, Mercer, and WCU might be a mess to sort out with everyone going 1-1 against each other. If any of those teams get to 8 wins they're in but 7 wins would be get sketchy for any and all of them and head-to-head may play a big factor if only 2 of them are on the bubble at 7-4. Samford is still hanging around but needs to win both of their final two which isn't impossible but seems unlikely. This league could still get anywhere from 2-4 bids IMO - it's just too early to tell.

Likely in
Furman 7-1 (5-0) [2.39/0.61] - @UTC (47%), VMI (98%), @Wofford (94%)

Work left to do
Chattanooga 7-2 (6-1) [0.53/1.47] - Furman (53%), @Bama (~0%)
Mercer 6-3 (4-2) [1.44/0.56] - @The Citadel (93%), Samford (51%)
Western Carolina 5-3 (3-2) [2.21/0.79] - @Wofford (73%), ETSU (71%), @VMI (77%)
Samford 5-4 (4-3) [0.96/1.04] - @Mercer (49%), UTM (47%)


Patriot
As Massey projected Holy Cross beat Fordham which means not much changed from last week in the Patriot. I think Lafayette's win over Georgetown solidified their playoff chances as Massey has them as a strong favorite to get to 9-2 which means they'd be the autobid since only HC has fewer than 2 losses in league play and Lafayette beat them head-to-head. If Holy Cross can win out, which would include a win over FBS Army, they should get an at-large but that might knock Fordham out even if they win out (as Massey projects). If either HC or Fordham loses one more they're probably on the outside looking in but Fordham might even get snubbed at 8-3. I think the Patriot could snag an at-large bid again but 2 seems unlikely and it could even be a one bid league still.

Trending towards in
Lafayette 7-1 (3-0) [2.07/0.93] - Colgate (81%), Fordham (46%), @Lehigh (81%)

Work left to do
Holy Cross 5-3 (3-1) [2.14/0.86] - @Lehigh (92%), @Army (28%), Georgetown (94%)
Fordham 5-3 (1-2) [2.13/0.87] - Bucknell (87%), @Lafayette (54%), @Colgate (72%)


UAC
Despite UCA being upset by Tarleton not much changed in the UAC. All 3 of these teams listed control their own destiny for the autobid. However, an at-large for this conference looks increasingly unlikely - APSU may have a shot at 8-3 but they'd need some help elswhere on the bubble to get in. I think this is just a one-bid league with these 3 teams duking it out over the next 3 weeks to see who takes the auto.

Work left to do
Austin Peay 6-2 (3-0) [2.17/0.83] - @EKU (65%), Utah Tech (87%), UCA (65%)
UCA 5-3 (2-1) [1.78/1.22] - @UNA (78%), EKU (66%), @APSU (35%)
EKU 4-4 (3-0) [1.19/1.81] - Austin Peay (35%), @UCA (34%), SFA (49%)


OVC/Big South
UTM's loss to G-W made a real mess out of the OVC/Big South. Only SEMO controls their own destiny for the autobid and UTM, EIU, and Tennessee St could all make strong cases for an at-large if any of them wins out but doesn't get the autobid. I added Bryant and Gardner-Webb to this list this week since both could still tie for a share of the conference title should SEMO lose (and Bryant still plays them) but they play each other this week which almost certainly eliminates the loser. It's possible this league gets an at-large especially if UTM wins out but doesn't get the auto but who knows with so much still to be decided.

Work left to do
UT Martin 6-2 (3-1) [1.94/1.06] - @TTU (90%), SEMO (51%), @Samford (53%)
SEMO 4-4 (3-0) [2.26/0.74] - RMU (98%), @UTM (49%), @Bryant (79%)
EIU 5-3 (1-2) [2.14/0.86] - @Lindenwood (67%), TSU (60%), @RMU (87%)
Tennessee St 6-2 (2-1) [1.84/1.16] - @CSU (67%), @EIU (40%), TTU (78%)
Gardner-Webb 4-4 (2-1) [2.00/1.00] - @Bryant (54%), @TTU (66%), CSU (80%)
Bryant 4-4 (2-1) [1.25/1.75] - G-W (46%), @Lindenwood (58%), SEMO (21%)


Others
Still just lonely UIW in this group for now as FAMU and NCCU kept their grips on their Celebration Bowl bids and the previous 3 leagues mentioned still have 3 or more teams in contention. Nicholls could crash this party if they beat UIW (and the way UIW has been squeaking by lately they might be ripe for plucking) which would put UIW in a tough spot since they only have 10 games scheduled now with the NWSU game cancelled and they have a sub-D1 win so 7-2 vs D1 probably puts them on the bubble if they lose to Nicholls.

Likely in
Incarnate Word 7-1 (4-0) [1.65/0.35] - Nicholls (73%), @HCU (92%)


The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 3 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Idaho (9-2), Montana St (9-2), Montana (9-2), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (10-1), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3)
MVFC: 5 - SDSU (11-0), USD (8-3), NDSU (8-3), SIU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4)
SOCON: 3 - Furman (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3), Mercer (8-3), WCU (8-3)
Patriot: 1 - Lafayette (9-2), Fordham (8-3)

The other 5 autos:
OVC/Big South: UTM (9-2)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: UIW (9-1)
NEC: Duquesne (8-3)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Delaware (10-1)
3. Idaho (9-2)
4. Montana St (9-2)
5. Furman (9-2)
6. Montana (9-2)
7. USD (8-3)
8. NDSU (8-3)

Last 4 in: WCU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (8-3)
First 4 out: YSU (7-4), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: TSU (8-3), Richmond (7-4), Rhode Island (7-4), UCA (7-4), Gardner-Webb (7-4), UC Davis (6-5)

I gave UTM the Big South/OVC auto for sake of ease since Massey projects a 3-way tie with SEMO and G-W (who don't play each other) so not sure how the tie breakers would work. Mercer grabbing another at-large for the SOCON tightened the bubble from last week which bumped YSU out for me. I think they could make an arugment over Fordham (or UND) but I wonder if politics come into play, even though it's not supposed to, with 6 MVFC teams already in the field. I think UIW at 9-1 or Sac St at 8-3 would be in play for that 8 seed but I think UIW's SOS is just too poor and Sac St would be 4 seeds for the Big Sky (which they've done before) but thinking that's not going to happen (EDIT: Chattanooga at 8-3 probably in play for the #8 seed as well - could see them getting the nod over NDSU probably moreso than the other 2 I mentioned).

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

Christiank22
October 29th, 2023, 11:22 AM
Appreciate these posts. I don’t see a way NDSU makes the playoffs though. We have a better chance of losing out than we do winning 2/3 IMO.

UNI and SIU will bully our defense. SDSU lmao…

crusader11
October 29th, 2023, 12:05 PM
Love your work, Chaos. Thanks for putting in the time to do this.

wcugrad95
October 29th, 2023, 02:38 PM
Massey has the UTC vs Furman game as basically a toss-up. If FU wins a very close game and finishes 10-1, do they move to the #2 or #3 seed? And if UTC loses a game say 28-26 instead of winning a game by the same score, do they get dropped out at 7-4? The UNA game was a brutal loss for the Mocs (and being honest - the SOCON), but it was in game 1 and seems tough to think a 3 or 4 point difference against the #2 or #3 team in the country this coming weekend would be the difference in them making or missing the playoffs - I would think a close loss proves they actually are playoff-worthy versus the other way around.

I know this is purely on the Massey projections, and I also appreciate you pulling all of this together. But interested in what others think specifically of Chattanooga. I am obviously somewhat biased, as I have watched many of their games. I also hope that some consideration is given to the SOCON since we are true round-robin. Yes we get to play the bottom-tier teams, but there is no dodging the best teams in the league, either. So 2 or so losses with at least 1 win when you play at least 3 other playoff-caliber teams is at least defendable.

grizband
October 29th, 2023, 03:00 PM
Massey has the UTC vs Furman game as basically a toss-up. If FU wins a very close game and finishes 10-1, do they move to the #2 or #3 seed? And if UTC loses a game say 28-26 instead of winning a game by the same score, do they get dropped out at 7-4? The UNA game was a brutal loss for the Mocs (and being honest - the SOCON), but it was in game 1 and seems tough to think a 3 or 4 point difference against the #2 or #3 team in the country this coming weekend would be the difference in them making or missing the playoffs - I would think a close loss proves they actually are playoff-worthy versus the other way around.

I know this is purely on the Massey projections, and I also appreciate you pulling all of this together. But interested in what others think specifically of Chattanooga. I am obviously somewhat biased, as I have watched many of their games. I also hope that some consideration is given to the SOCON since we are true round-robin. Yes we get to play the bottom-tier teams, but there is no dodging the best teams in the league, either. So 2 or so losses with at least 1 win when you play at least 3 other playoff-caliber teams is at least defendable.
Whether Furman gets a top 3 seed I think depends on how a few other teams finish the season. Montana, Montana State, Delaware, South Dakota State will also be in contention for those spots, but any of them with more than 2 losses probably doesn't earn a top 3. So yes, Furman definitely has a shot if they finish 10-1, but I don't know whether it's a guarantee.

Chalupa Batman
October 29th, 2023, 03:46 PM
Whether Furman gets a top 3 seed I think depends on how a few other teams finish the season. Montana, Montana State, Delaware, South Dakota State will also be in contention for those spots, but any of them with more than 2 losses probably doesn't earn a top 3. So yes, Furman definitely has a shot if they finish 10-1, but I don't know whether it's a guarantee.

I think Furman will remain ahead of Montana State if they both win out, 0 FCS losses compared to 2 for the Bobcats I don't see how Montana State gets ahead of Furman. If Delaware also wins out with Furman I think the Paladins should be ahead of the Blue Hens unless Delaware absolutely destroys Villanova to end the season and Furman doesn't do the same to UTC, then it's a tossup between those 2. If the Griz win out, I think they jump ahead of Furman for the #2 seed. They would have wins over Idaho, Sac St, and Montana State and those wins would carry a lot more weight IMO than their early season struggles against Butler, Ferris State, and NAU.

I think Idaho is in the mix here too, if they win out they would be 8-1 vs FCS plus a dominating FBS win over Nevada (yes they are a bad FBS team but according to Sagarin & Massey the Wolfpack are rated similarly to or higher than highly ranked FCS teams such as North Dakota, Furman, Incarnate Word, and South Dakota). If the Vandals and Griz both win out, and the Vandals only loss is a 2 point loss to Montana, I could see them ending up #2 and #3.

And of course, SDSU is going to be #1 unless the selection committee is handing out crack in their meetings.

Professor Chaos
October 29th, 2023, 04:02 PM
Good points... I pretty much agree with grizband and CB. I'll qualify this by saying this is just my opinion and I'm not on the selection committee so it means about as much as any random fan's opinion but I think at 10-1 the lowest Furman would be is #3 and the only teams that should be seeded above them would be a 11-0 or 10-1 SDSU or a 10-1 Montana. I'd say Idaho might have a decent claim for #3 at 9-2 if Montana finishes 10-1 but I'd put Furman in over them. I think Furman should be ahead of Delaware if both finish 10-1.

The nice thing about the big 4 in the Big Sky this year (Idaho, Montana, Montana St, and Sac St) is that they all play each other so the unbalanced Big Sky schedule doesn't hurt them much.

Chalupa Batman
October 29th, 2023, 04:37 PM
Good points... I pretty much agree with grizband and CB. I'll qualify this by saying this is just my opinion and I'm not on the selection committee so it means about as much as any random fan's opinion but I think at 10-1 the lowest Furman would be is #3 and the only teams that should be seeded above them would be a 11-0 or 10-1 SDSU or a 10-1 Montana. I'd say Idaho might have a decent claim for #3 at 9-2 if Montana finishes 10-1 but I'd put Furman in over them. I think Furman should be ahead of Delaware if both finish 10-1.

The nice thing about the big 4 in the Big Sky this year (Idaho, Montana, Montana St, and Sac St) is that they all play each other so the unbalanced Big Sky schedule doesn't hurt them much.

I agree that Furman should be locked in to a top 3 seed if they win out, but I could see arguments for the Vandals or Blue Hens being there as well. There's going to be a lot of lobbying to be put in the 2,3,6, or 7 seeds instead of 4,5 or 8.

Go Lehigh TU Owl
October 29th, 2023, 10:29 PM
I wonder what Lafayette's ceiling is should they finish 10-1 (10-0 vs FCS)? The PL is "pretty good" this year, the best its been since the mid 2010s, so I think they would have some respect in the committee room. The question is how much equity? 7 or 8 seed?

NY Crusader 2010
October 30th, 2023, 05:17 AM
I wonder what Lafayette's ceiling is should they finish 10-1 (10-0 vs FCS)? The PL is "pretty good" this year, the best its been since the mid 2010s, so I think they would have some respect in the committee room. The question is how much equity? 7 or 8 seed?

Good question. Maybe the 8 seed. Still work to do. Massey still somehow has them as an underdog AT HOME against Fordham. Some of these FCS ratings sets, not to mention the posted spreads on ESPN, are truly bizarre.

crusader11
October 30th, 2023, 07:26 AM
I wonder what Lafayette's ceiling is should they finish 10-1 (10-0 vs FCS)? The PL is "pretty good" this year, the best its been since the mid 2010s, so I think they would have some respect in the committee room. The question is how much equity? 7 or 8 seed?

Don’t think a seed is in their future.

No eye-catching FCS win. We’re competitive with Duke for a half, but the committee will see that game as a “blow out.”

Some teams would have to lose ahead of them to be even in contention.

Remember, last year HC went undefeated in the regular season, beating FBS Buffalo, Ivy Champs Yale, NEC Champs Merrimack, top 25 Fordham…and snuck in as the final seed.

Lafayette doesn’t have that resume.

Pards Rule
October 30th, 2023, 08:11 AM
Don’t think a seed is in their future.

No eye-catching FCS win. We’re competitive with Duke for a half, but the committee will see that game as a “blow out.”

Some teams would have to lose ahead of them to be even in contention.

Remember, last year HC went undefeated in the regular season, beating FBS Buffalo, Ivy Champs Yale, NEC Champs Merrimack, top 25 Fordham…and snuck in as the final seed.

Lafayette doesn’t have that resume.

Crusader well placed here. And dont forget we were hosed by THREE ACC crap calls that were momentum changers and I firmly submit we would have had another TD or 10 in there if not for that garbage, Shame cause we were going to lose but I guess they thought a 25 or 28 spread was too close against a no name team.

crusader11
October 30th, 2023, 08:31 AM
Crusader well placed here. And dont forget we were hosed by THREE ACC crap calls that were momentum changers and I firmly submit we would have had another TD or 10 in there if not for that garbage, Shame cause we were going to lose but I guess they thought a 25 or 28 spread was too close against a no name team.

Lafayette definitely looked like they belonged in that game. Should / could have been 14-14 or Duke only up 21-14 at the half.

ysubigred
October 30th, 2023, 09:31 AM
Last 4 in: WCU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (8-3)

First 4 out: YSU (7-4), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4)

YSU is on the outside looking in as usual this time of year. I agree UNI and USD are in ahead of YSU with equal 7-4 records in the valley due to head to head competition and YSUs' weak OOC.

A 7-4 UND, I'm not sure about. [emoji848] they beat the Bizon we beat SIU..

Still 3 weeks to play out YSU needs help. My hope is that the Bizon scuffs up SDSU and they come to Y-town, not as strong. 8-3 YSU is a lock. I'm a realist, and the inconsistent play YSU has shown on the road in the valley the season can be over in Terre Haute this Saturday.

Bottom line: Guins need help @ 7-4. If the OOC was a good one, then less help. Need to stop this Valparaiso type game. Robert Morris is a fully funded scholarship team. I don't know why their game hurts us for any consideration.

8-3 "Leaves No Doubt." A very tall order, and as Massey has it, it is a very unlikely low percentage chance.

GooooooooGuins!

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

Professor Chaos
October 30th, 2023, 10:09 AM
Last 4 in: WCU (8-3), UNI (7-4), UND (7-4), Fordham (8-3)

First 4 out: YSU (7-4), EIU (8-3), William & Mary (7-4), Holy Cross (7-4)

YSU is on the outside looking in as usual this time of year. I agree UNI and USD are in ahead of YSU with equal 7-4 records in the valley due to head to head competition and YSUs' weak OOC.

A 7-4 UND, I'm not sure about. [emoji848] they beat the Bizon we beat SIU..

Still 3 weeks to play out YSU needs help. My hope is that the Bizon scuffs up SDSU and they come to Y-town, not as strong. 8-3 YSU is a lock. I'm a realist, and the inconsistent play YSU has shown on the road in the valley the season can be over in Terre Haute this Saturday.

Bottom line: Guins need help @ 7-4. If the OOC was a good one, then less help. Need to stop this Valparaiso type game. Robert Morris is a fully funded scholarship team. I don't know why their game hurts us for any consideration.

8-3 "Leaves No Doubt." A very tall order, and as Massey has it, it is a very unlikely low percentage chance.

GooooooooGuins!

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk
That sums it up pretty well. Since UND and YSU don't play each other there will have to be hairs split if they're both 7-4 (5-3) on Selection Sunday and there's only room for one. That NDSU/SIU game on 11/11 might be a big game for those two since a NDSU win props up UND more and a SIU win props up YSU more.

crusader11
October 30th, 2023, 10:18 AM
Chaos, in your expert opinion, does 8-3 Holy Cross get an at large? This would mean a win over Army.

wcugrad95
October 30th, 2023, 10:35 AM
And back to my post - the focus went towards Furman and if they will be a 2 or 3 seed at 10-1, but anybody with thoughts on if Chattanooga is in the field at 7-4 and a close loss to the Paladins? Win and UTC is in because they will have the auto-bid at 7-1 in the SOCON. Lose a close game to a top-3 seed and finish 7-4 and that could mean from near auto-bid to out of the playoffs???

Professor Chaos
October 30th, 2023, 10:45 AM
And back to my post - the focus went towards Furman and if they will be a 2 or 3 seed at 10-1, but anybody with thoughts on if Chattanooga is in the field at 7-4 and a close loss to the Paladins? Win and UTC is in because they will have the auto-bid at 7-1 in the SOCON. Lose a close game to a top-3 seed and finish 7-4 and that could mean from near auto-bid to out of the playoffs???
I think UTC would be on the bubble at 7-4 but they'd have a decent argument. Losses to Furman and WCU wouldn't hurt them much (as long as WCU isn't at 7-4 with them) but that loss to North Alabama does. They would have decent wins over Mercer and Samford if one of those teams is on the bubble with them (or if Mercer is in the field at 8-3). I think they'd beat a lot of 7-4 CAA teams with that resume but might not beat some 7-4 MVFC teams so depends on how many spots are up for grabs.

UNHWildcat18
October 30th, 2023, 10:55 AM
Even if we don't get in... If we are fortunate enough to finish at 7-4(5-3) it's gonna be awesome watching people sweat it out as the ghost of Marty Scarano circles the selection committee meetings.

crusader11
October 30th, 2023, 11:30 AM
Let's play a game and assume the following statement becomes fact:

What do you do with Incarnate Word when they lose to Nichols, beat Houston Christian, and finish their season 8-2 with one of those wins coming against "North American University"?

What a weird resume this is. On the one hand, only one FCS loss and what might end up being a "nice" win over Abilene Christian...but, on the other, UIW has played absolutely no one. The Southland is historically bad. Do we think they're an at-large team?

Professor Chaos
October 30th, 2023, 11:34 AM
Let's play a game and assume the following statement becomes fact:

What do you do with Incarnate Word when they lose to Nichols, beat Houston Christian, and finish their season 8-2 with one of those wins coming against "North American University"?

What a weird resume this is. On the one hand, only one FCS loss and what might end up being a "nice" win over Abilene Christian...but, on the other, UIW has played absolutely no one. The Southland is historically bad. Do we think they're an at-large team?
I'd get the feeling they'd be in but probably not much to back up their selection. I'd assume the selection committee wouldn't want to punish them for their Northwestern St game getting cancelled. Would they look that much better with a win over a winless team??? I don't know but it would get them to 8 D1 wins which would be better than 7.

Another thing to take into consideration is some claim that the selection committee make selections with attendance figures in mind - UIW is averaging about 2k in attendance so far this year (they probably wouldn't outbid anyone anyway but it can't help them any).

ysubigred
October 30th, 2023, 11:59 AM
That sums it up pretty well. Since UND and YSU don't play each other there will have to be hairs split if they're both 7-4 (5-3) on Selection Sunday and there's only room for one. That NDSU/SIU game on 11/11 might be a big game for those two since a NDSU win props up UND more and a SIU win props up YSU more.Yes, sir.. I was telling my group that this year would have been the better year for NODAK than SODAK schools.. I'm not saying YSU would beat them, but the eye test tells me there was a better chance.

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atthewbon
October 30th, 2023, 08:15 PM
Looking closer at your projected field I noticed you have 8-3 Fordham over 7-4 YSU. I don't disagree with your take that the committee might make this decision. I don't think they'd want 7 MVFC teams. But if theses hypothetical results happen a 7-4 YSU is more deserving than 8-3 Fordham IMO. I also think they'd have a good argument over a hypothetical 7-4 UND.

edit: I also think a hypothetical 8-3 EIU has a good argument against 8-3 Fordham. This would be a very controversial bubble if these results come true.

Professor Chaos
October 30th, 2023, 08:59 PM
Looking closer at your projected field I noticed you have 8-3 Fordham over 7-4 YSU. I don't disagree with your take that the committee might make this decision. I don't think they'd want 7 MVFC teams. But if theses hypothetical results happen a 7-4 YSU is more deserving than 8-3 Fordham IMO. I also think they'd have a good argument over a hypothetical 7-4 UND.

edit: I also think a hypothetical 8-3 EIU has a good argument against 8-3 Fordham. This would be a very controversial bubble if these results come true.
I mentioned that at the very end (all except EIU). I do think politics could come into play when taking a 7th team from one conference (even though it's not supposed to matter) and the committee loves FBS wins and Fordham has one along with a projected win over PL auto Lafayette to get to 8-3.

Between UND and YSU at hypothetical 7-4 records I also considered the signature win for each - UND over NDSU and YSU over SIU and Massey projects NDSU to beat SIU when they meet in week 11 so UND gets an edge there.

MR. CHICKEN
October 30th, 2023, 09:09 PM
Looking closer at your projected field I noticed you have 8-3 Fordham over 7-4 YSU. I don't disagree with your take that the committee might make this decision. I don't think they'd want 7 MVFC teams. But if theses hypothetical results happen a 7-4 YSU is more deserving than 8-3 Fordham IMO. I also think they'd have a good argument over a hypothetical 7-4 UND.

edit: I also think a hypothetical 8-3 EIU has a good argument against 8-3 Fordham. This would be a very controversial bubble if these results come true.

......FORDHAM....HAS UH FBS DUBBYA....IN BUFFALO...WHOM IS CURRENTLY IN 2nd PLACE....MAC EAST........BRAWK!

ps..........UH FBS DUBBYA.......GETS YA.....AN X-TRA CONSONANT.....ON DUH WHEEL UH FORTUNE......AWK!

atthewbon
October 30th, 2023, 09:25 PM
I mentioned that at the very end (all except EIU). I do think politics could come into play when taking a 7th team from one conference (even though it's not supposed to matter) and the committee loves FBS wins and Fordham has one along with a projected win over PL auto Lafayette to get to 8-3.

Between UND and YSU at hypothetical 7-4 records I also considered the signature win for each - UND over NDSU and YSU over SIU and Massey projects NDSU to beat SIU when they meet in week 11 so UND gets an edge there.

Good points. The logic for UND in that scenario makes sense if NDSU beats SIU. While I see the argument for Fordham with the FBS win (Buffalo really isn’t that good FBS wise, though it’s still impressive) the Georgetown loss is really questionable… Although Holy Cross had a good run last year, I’m still not convinced on the strength of the Patriot League. Again as a prediction I think you’re probably right that this is how it would go.


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Puddin Tane
October 30th, 2023, 09:29 PM
Let's play a game and assume the following statement becomes fact:

What do you do with Incarnate Word when they lose to Nichols, beat Houston Christian, and finish their season 8-2 with one of those wins coming against "North American University"?

What a weird resume this is. On the one hand, only one FCS loss and what might end up being a "nice" win over Abilene Christian...but, on the other, UIW has played absolutely no one. The Southland is historically bad. Do we think they're an at-large team?

The southland is having a down year, but i will say ...

uiw is pretty darn good. They are a definite playoff team. Keep em out of the snow and theyll win some playoff games.

Be happy you wont play them

Sader87
October 30th, 2023, 10:37 PM
The Holy Cross offense is Frisco worthy.......unfortunately our D might lose to Middlebury right now.....

Milktruck74
October 31st, 2023, 01:26 PM
I think UTC would be on the bubble at 7-4 but they'd have a decent argument. Losses to Furman and WCU wouldn't hurt them much (as long as WCU isn't at 7-4 with them) but that loss to North Alabama does. They would have decent wins over Mercer and Samford if one of those teams is on the bubble with them (or if Mercer is in the field at 8-3). I think they'd beat a lot of 7-4 CAA teams with that resume but might not beat some 7-4 MVFC teams so depends on how many spots are up for grabs.

I understand that the tUNA loss initially looks bad, but my hope is the committee understands a little bit about football. I hope they can see that tUNA had an entire extra week of practice over the Mocs, since practice always starts so many days prior to the first game. And teams get exponentially better between game one and two. And tUNA had 130 plays of live action to shake out their pre-season cobwebs that the Mocs did not get...The Mocs got in a 21 point hole quickly. Take away the first quarter (or just the first 35 plays) and the Mocs actually leave Florence with a win. I'm trying not to make excuses for the loss, but it has to be put into context. A full game of football and a full week of practice make a huge difference. Does anyone think tUNA would even be within 3 score of the Mocs if they were to play this week?

Professor Chaos
October 31st, 2023, 01:52 PM
I understand that the tUNA loss initially looks bad, but my hope is the committee understands a little bit about football. I hope they can see that tUNA had an entire extra week of practice over the Mocs, since practice always starts so many days prior to the first game. And teams get exponentially better between game one and two. And tUNA had 130 plays of live action to shake out their pre-season cobwebs that the Mocs did not get...The Mocs got in a 21 point hole quickly. Take away the first quarter (or just the first 35 plays) and the Mocs actually leave Florence with a win. I'm trying not to make excuses for the loss, but it has to be put into context. A full game of football and a full week of practice make a huge difference. Does anyone think tUNA would even be within 3 score of the Mocs if they were to play this week?
That's quite the spin... everyone could come up with excuses as to why their team lost a game the percentages say they should win so, on the contrary, I hope the committee doesn't try to make excuses for bad losses and then decide which excuses are worthy of overlooking that loss and which aren't.

FUBeAR
October 31st, 2023, 03:07 PM
That's quite the spin... everyone could come up with excuses as to why their team lost a game the percentages say they should win so, on the contrary, I hope the committee doesn't try to make excuses for bad losses and then decide which excuses are worthy of overlooking that loss and which aren't.
The Committee will say whatever they want to say to justify the decisions they made to put the Teams in the Playoffs that they want to put in the Playoffs.

FUBeAR has listened to years of BS twisting & turning come out of all 7 sides of their purty mouths. MilkTruck’s whiny pleas for leniency are as strong or stronger than 75% of the dreck that oozes from these Committee Members.

If they decide they want to have a 7-4 Mocs Team in the Playoffs, they will roll MilkTruck on Playback. If they don’t, they’ll be saying similar things about 2 7-4 Big Sky Teams, 2 7-4 CAA Teams, and a 6-5 MVFC Team that they decided to put in.

BEAR
October 31st, 2023, 04:10 PM
Once UCA is beaten by either UNA or Eastern Kentucky or Austin Peay go ahead and wipe them off the playoff chart. These coaches aren't ready. xsmhx

JayJ79
November 3rd, 2023, 02:31 PM
The other 5 autos:
...
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)
Davidson and Drake are both currently 5-0 in PFL games, and they do not play each other this season.
If they both end up 8-0, unless my understanding of the PFL tiebreak procedures is wrong, I believe Drake would win the tiebreak.
But Drake's remaining 3 games are tougher than Davidson's remaining 3 games, so it is possible Drake might not win out.
Though I doubt most people really care all that much who wins the PFL AQ spot.

MSUBobcat
November 3rd, 2023, 03:08 PM
Davidson and Drake are both currently 5-0 in PFL games, and they do not play each other this season.
If they both end up 8-0, unless my understanding of the PFL tiebreak procedures is wrong, I believe Drake would win the tiebreak.
But Drake's remaining 3 games are tougher than Davidson's remaining 3 games, so it is possible Drake might not win out.
Though I doubt most people really care all that much who wins the PFL AQ spot.

Not sure if this is the reasoning, but given PC used Massey to predict future outcomes, Drake would not get the AQ due to being only 41% chance to beat Butler in the last game of the season, while Davidson is 72-79% for its remaining 3 games.

Professor Chaos
November 3rd, 2023, 07:02 PM
Davidson and Drake are both currently 5-0 in PFL games, and they do not play each other this season.
If they both end up 8-0, unless my understanding of the PFL tiebreak procedures is wrong, I believe Drake would win the tiebreak.
But Drake's remaining 3 games are tougher than Davidson's remaining 3 games, so it is possible Drake might not win out.
Though I doubt most people really care all that much who wins the PFL AQ spot.


Not sure if this is the reasoning, but given PC used Massey to predict future outcomes, Drake would not get the AQ due to being only 41% chance to beat Butler in the last game of the season, while Davidson is 72-79% for its remaining 3 games.
Yep - I think I left that in there from last week and didn't look too close to whether things had changed this week but Butler will make the Pioneer easier to figure if they can beat Drake. I'm not sure what wacky tie breaker they'd have to go to if both finish 8-0. Probably something like Sagarin or Massey ratings (which Davidson has the advantage in now as well).

clenz
November 3rd, 2023, 07:33 PM
Yep - I think I left that in there from last week and didn't look too close to whether things had changed this week but Butler will make the Pioneer easier to figure if they can beat Drake. I'm not sure what wacky tie breaker they'd have to go to if both finish 8-0. Probably something like Sagarin or Massey ratings (which Davidson has the advantage in now as well).

7th tie break is strength of record
8th is strength of victory
9th is an actual coin flip


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