SoCon 2023 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 10 - SoCon CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK

[FUBeAR]

Saturday, November 4, 2023 SoCon Football


Away
Home
Time
Notes


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
1P
Good matchup of middle-of-SoCon Pack Teams


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30UTC (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1:30P
Unless FUBeAR is mistaken, the winner of this game will clinch at least a share of the SoCon Championship and will earn the SoCon’s AutoBid to the FCS Playoffs. This is a BIG game!


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
2P
Mercer hopes to keep Playoff hopes alive and CIT tries to dash those dreams by picking up their 1st win in front of the Home crowd


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
3P
WCU looks to shake off a 2 game losing streak and put this season back on the Playoffs rails. The Cullowhee contingent just cannot wait another 40 years to get back to the Playoffs. Wofford has the benefit of the Playbook Furman and Mercer gave them and is home. A win here could make a miserable season a little less so.

[FUBeAR]

Thought we should bring this post and the next one over to this week for forward-looking discussion.


Going into October a few years back, I think it was Gene Henley (Mocs awesome beatwriter for the CTFP) I heard say, "We know what is suppose to happen but the SoCon is gonna SoCon!) Well Yesterday, was almost the SoCon-est day of SoCon-est days. We all knew what the outcome of the games should have been...and 3 of the 4 ended up that way, albeit quite the nailbiter!!!!

Anyway, I'll put this in here...but with the understanding that there is plenty of SoConing left to SoCon (except the Mocs, which will be completely done SoConing 2 weeks before everyone else in the SoCon....Stupid Scheduling!!!!)

Anyway, here is a take on the playoffs using Mr. Massey's ideas.

Barely getting by VMI didn't really hurt in the Massey Algorithm. Going into yesterday, Massey had the Mocs at 54% vs Furple with a score of 27-24. Today it is 53% with a 26-24 victory (i'd gladly accept either). I guess if Furman was able to actually hang some points on ETSU, the algorithm may have swung further in their favor. So, here is what Mr. Massey Says for the top half of the SoCon for the rest of the season.

Mocs finish 7-1 with a SoCon Championship and one loss to WCU (Mocs get the head to head tiebreaker)
Furple is in sole possession of 2nd with one loss to UTC
Mercer in 3rd at 6-2 with losses to #1 and #2 (with the 3rd place tie breaker being a head to head over Western)
Western in 4th at 6-2 with losses to #2 and #3

If the Mocs win on 11/4 they let the rest of the SoCon sort itself out.

However, if the Mocs don't win on Saturday, it'll be difficult for the committee to figure things out....

Furman will probably be 8-0 (obviously the AQ)

and Mocs at 6-2 along with Mercer and Western. each 1-1 amongst the others....So, I think the committee has to let in at least 2 teams from the SoCon. The Conference probably deserve 3....4 is a big stretch....

The big question is, who eats Thanksgiving dinner at home?

[FUBeAR]

Thought we should bring this post and the previous one over to this week for forward-looking discussion.


In the unlikely event that Furman loses to the TrainSnakeBirds this coming Saturday, the Paladins would only “be in sole possession of 2nd” (by 1/2 game) until the Paladins play Wofford the following Saturday. Then, in the likely event that Furman defeats the 0-9 or 1-8 Terriers, Furman and Chattanooga would be SoCon Co-Champions with equal 7-1 Conference Records. The SoftLeatherShodNativeAmericans would get the AutoBid due to the unlikely hypothetical stated above.

Back to likely events…
FU beats UTC & Woffy
Mercer beats CIT and Sam.
WCU beats Woffy, ETSU, and VMI
UTC loses to Bama

FU 10-1 / 8-0
Mercer 8-3 / 6-2
WCU 8-3 / 6-2
Chatt 7-4 / 6-2

FU in with top 4 seed, perhaps Top 2
Mercer and WCU in, unseeded and 1 of them prolly going to FU in Round 2
Chatt out - although the Mocs SHOULD BE IN

That’s how FUBeAR sees it. Mercer over Samford is the most tenuous of those likely events, IFBO.

[The Cats]

Saturday, November 4, 2023 SoCon Football


Away
Home
Time
Notes


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
1P
Good matchup of middle-of-SoCon Pack Teams


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30UTC (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1:30P
Unless FUBeAR is mistaken, the winner of this game will clinch at least a share of the SoCon Championship and will earn the SoCon’s AutoBid to the FCS Playoffs. This is a BIG game!


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
2P
Mercer hopes to keep Playoff hopes alive and CIT tries to dash those dreams by picking up their 1st win in front of the Home crowd


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
3P
WCU looks to shake off a 2 game losing streak and put this season back on the Playoffs rails. The Cullowhee contingent just cannot wait another 40 years to get back to the Playoffs. Wofford has the benefit of the Playbook Furman and Mercer gave them and is home. A win here could make a miserable season a little less so.





Why did I know you'd show up with bells on this week to start off the SoCon thread? However, I'm sure you could have come up with a little more disparaging remarks about Catamount football, if you really tried... oh, oh, yeah... I forgot, you haven't posted your rankings yet. Never mind.

[wcugrad95]

Mercer and Furman beat Western. The final scores are all that matter in the end, and WCU now has 2 SOCON losses. I could do some of the same earlier types of statements others have done in rating the teams ("if team A can change their offense" or try and use scores vs common opponents to rationalize things), or use things that I myself have done ("if we had this guy playing" or "if we didn't turn the ball over so many times") - but it doesn't change any outcomes. I am hopeful that the committee does factor in some of those kinds of things for teams that finish in the 7-4/8-3 range, because it is highly likely the league will have 3 of them this year.

But the rankings are supposed to be based on the teams that are put out on the field this coming Saturday. I think yesterday was a serious "trap" weekend that caught Furman both looking backwards at their win and forwards at their upcoming showdown with UTC, and UTC always struggles at VMI but they probably had 1 eye looking towards next Saturday, too.

1. Furman - the winner Saturday is going to be the champ and FU is playing for a high seed
2. Chattanooga - trying to win a ring for Ford while also understanding a loss could mean missing the playoffs
3. Mercer - have to put them here until they lose to Samford
4. WCU - can climb back up as high as #2 if they get their head's out of their butts and get some guys back healthy
5. Samford - dangerous team who is hungry to claw their way to 7 wins (and they are capable of doing it)
6. VMI - another dangerous team who is playing much better than their record shows
7. ETSU - played inspired against FU, but the offense is a mess due to so many injuries
8. Wofford - desperately wants to spoil somebody's season, and somebody has to win the game on 11/11
9. Citadel - desperately wants to spoil somebody's season, and somebody has to win the game on 11/11

Playoffs:
Furman is in regardless - question is how high will they be? All the other contenders still have work to do. If UTC loses this weekend, they will finish 7-4 and have 1 win against ranked teams (but that Samford team dropped from the ranks after the loss). If Mercer wins out they should be a ranked team and IMO in the field. If they lose to Samford they will finish 7-4 and be out. And WCU needs to win out and look more like the team they did the first 1/2 of the season. Lose a game and the Cats are out at 7-4. Have 3 mediocre showings but still win and it will be nail-biting time. Win games by double-digits and they are solidly in the field.

Seems crazy to me, but we could seriously be looking at 1 or more 8-win SOCON teams on the bubble - which makes no sense given how good the top-half is this year. I think we are definitely looking at no 7-4 teams getting in. We all have to play each other, so there is no dodging the best teams.

[FUBeAR]

Mercer and Furman beat Western…and WCU now has 2 SOCON losses.

the committee does factor in some…kinds of things for teams…

the rankings are supposed to be based on the teams that are put out on the field this coming Saturday.

1. Furman - the winner Saturday is going to be the champ and FU is playing for a high seed
2. Chattanooga - trying to win a ring for Ford while also understanding a loss could mean missing the playoffs

Link to AGS SoCon Weekly Rankings Charter and/or instructions?

OK - Let's try this again...

Seems to FUBeAR that some of us may be a bit uncertain about the ramifications of the FU @ Chatt game … or maybe FUBeAR is wrong about his understanding of the ramifications and/or his understanding of others’ understandings of the ramifications, so let’s lay ‘em out. Please offer any corrections you see are needed, if any.

Scenario 1) Chatt beats Furman AND Furman beats BOTH VMI & Wofford
——- Chatt and Furman are both SoCon Champions at 7-1
——- Chatt earns the SoCon AutoBid

Scenario 2) Chatt beats Furman AND Furman loses to EITHER VMI OR Wofford OR loses to BOTH
——- Chatt, at 7-1, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 or 5-3 Furman and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Chatt earns the SoCon AutoBid

Scenario 3) Furman beats Chatt AND Furman beats BOTH VMI AND Wofford
——- Furman, at 8-0, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 Chatt and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Furman earns the SoCon AutoBid

Scenario 4) Furman beats Chatt AND Furman loses to EITHER VMI OR Wofford, BUT ONLY to 1 of those 2
——- Furman, at 7-1, is the outright SoCon Champion, over 6-2 Chatt and any other SoCon Team with 2 or more losses
——- Furman earns the SoCon AutoBid

Scenario 5 AKA "She Complicated" - Furman beats Chatt AND Furman loses to BOTH VMI AND Wofford
——- Furman AND Chatt, both at 6-2 would both be SoCon Champions AND IF...
---------- Scenario 5a) Mercer loses to EITHER OR BOTH The Citadel AND/OR Samford AND WCU loses to ANY OR ALL of Wofford AND/OR ETSU, AND/OR VMI
-------------------- Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of the head-to-head win over Chatt
---------- Scenario 5b) Mercer defeats The Citadel AND Samford AND WCU defeats Wofford AND ETSU, AND VMI.
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, Mercer, and WCU, ALL at 6-2 are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custompages/socon/championships/tie-breaking/tie-breaking_procedures_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 3-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 1-2, Mercer 1-2, WCU 1-2
---------- Scenario 5c) Mercer defeats The Citadel AND Samford, but WCU loses to any of Wofford OR ETSU, OR VMI
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, AND Mercer, ALL at 6-2, are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custompages/socon/championships/tie-breaking/tie-breaking_procedures_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 2-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 1-1, Mercer 0-2
---------- Scenario 5d) Mercer loses to The Citadel OR Samford OR BOTH, AND WCU defeats Wofford AND ETSU, AND VMI
-------------------- Furman, Chatt, AND WCU, ALL at 6-2, are ALL SoCon Champs
-------------------- Per the SoCon Tie-breaking Procedure - https://static.soconsports.com/custompages/socon/championships/tie-breaking/tie-breaking_procedures_football.pdf - Furman would earn the SoCon AutoBid by virtue of a 2-0 record among the other tied Teams with records of Chatt 0-2, WCU 1-1


Summarizing....
1) IF Furman defeats Chatt, Furman earns at least a share of the SoCon Championship AND the SoCon AutoBid
2) IF Furman defeats Chatt AND wins 1 more regular season game over either of 2 Teams with current combined records of 2-8/3-13, Furman wins the outright SoCon Championship and, of course, the previously secured AutoBid
3) IF Chatt defeats Furman, Chatt earns at least a share of the SoCon Championship AND the SoCon AutoBid
4) IF Chatt defeats Furman AND Furman loses 1 more regular season game to either of 2 Teams with current combined records of 2-8/3-13, Chatt wins the outright SoCon Championship and, of course, the previously secured AutoBid
5) Mercer AND/OR WCU can still earn a share of the SoCon Championship IF Furman defeats Chatt, then Furman 'loses out' AND EITHER or BOTH of them 'win out.'
6) Although Mercer AND/OR WCU can still earn a share of the SoCon Championship, they have no path to earn the SoCon AutoBid

Make sense?


WCU AND Mercer Fans - See Summary Note 5 - ALL WCU AND MERCER FANS WILL WANT TO BE HUGE FURMAN FANS THIS SATURDAY IN ORDER TO KEEP THEIR SoCon Championship chances alive. WELCOME TO THE TEAM!!! <F> #FUATT (if only for a week - cuz you'll then want FU to lose in the next 2 weeks)

[Gene Henley]

Chattanooga loses to Furman, the Mocs have to become the biggest Samford fans ever because the Mocs don't get in over 8-3 Mercer but would probably get in over 7-4 Mercer due to the head-to-head win in Macon.

This feels like a year the league should get 4 in, which means the league will get two.

19 SoCon teams have won 6 or more conference games since the FCS field moved to 24 teams. 17 of them have made the playoffs, with UTC in 2013 (three-way tie, league probably hurt by average App State and Ga Southern teams that were leaving the league) and Mercer in 2019 when the Bears played a 10-game schedule and won 7, which included a NAIA win.

But I also didn't think the league would get four in in 2016, and that league was as balanced then as it as it is this year.

Better make those bids really juicy for the committee.

[FUBeAR]

Chattanooga loses to Furman, the Mocs have to become the biggest Samford fans ever because the Mocs don't get in over 8-3 Mercer but would probably get in over 7-4 Mercer due to the head-to-head win in Macon.

This feels like a year the league should get 4 in, which means the league will get two.

But I also didn't think the league would get four in in 2016.

Better make those bids really juicy for the committee.
Furman has already offered each Committee member, individually, a 1/13th share of this year’s Duke Endowment funding in order to get the #1 or #2 seed.

Calling it part of their NIL deals. These Committee Members deserve to have a few dollars of walkin’ around money for all of the long hard hours they put in on behalf of FCS Football!


…and wasn’t that more of a foot-to-head Chatt win in Macon?

[Gene Henley]

Furman has already offered each Committee member, individually, a 10% share of this year’s Duke Endowment funding in order to get the #1 or #2 seed.

Calling it part of their NIL deals. These Committee Members deserve to have a few dollars of walkin’ around money for all of the long hard hours they put in on behalf of FCS Football!

FuBeAR, UTC, Mercer and WCU should be doing the same. That's the only way we get our dream of four SoCon teams in the field.

[bonarae]

Predictions:
VMI (not sure what to think of ETSU now)
Furman
Mercer
WCU

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

It has been awhile since I last posted on here. I saw the Furman-ETSU and Chattanooga-VMI scores and was wondering if any of you saw that coming (I didn't). Without further ado, this is where I see it:

1) Furman - oh what a difference "jettisoning"* Furman Georgie makes (and if any of you have not already wrote Scott Carter a thank you note, please do).
2) Chattanooga - is now playing a playoff elimination game this week (and unless they come into possession of some Alabama hand signals, they finish 7-4).
3) Mercer - is now in the position of scoring their first playoff bid in school history (and if they do, will a Lamb Bowl rematch be possible).
4) Western Carolina - fell flat on their face the last couple of weeks (and it will really stink since they were off to a great start).
5) Samford - completes the sweep against the SoCon Toliet Bowl contenders (and they get two weeks to prep for Mercer)
6) VMI - had nothing to be ashamed of vs. Chattanooga (and a win next week will make the SoCon Toilet Bowl a three team race for sure)
7) ETSU - had nothing to be ashamed of vs. Furman (and a win next week will eliminate them from SoCon Toilet Bowl contention)
8) (TIE) A Citadel - got smacked around on the road (and desperately needs to win some games)
(TIE) Wofford - showed some signs of life but fell apart (and also desperately needs to win some games)

* means "failing forward" into a SoCon head coaching role where the "jettisonee" has done a fabulous job (he's fabulously bad). Heck, I give him an A++ (as in abysmal).

This Week's Games
VMI @ ETSU - Bucs gets eliminated from SoCon Toilet Bowl contention
Furman @ Chattanooga (Game of the Week) - Paladins claim the autobid and the SoCon championship
Mercer @ A Citadel (Beatdown of the Week) - A Citadel, Taco Hell, Mademoiselle, Batman Smells, Dave Chapelle, IT DOESN'T MATTER, BEARS BY FIDDY!
Western Carolina @ Wofford (Beatdown of the Week Part Deux) - Wofford Terriers, ball carrier, Charleston Post and Courier, Road Warriors, Steve Spurrier, IT DOESN'T MATTER, CATS BY FIDDY!

[The Cats]

VMI (3-5, 2-3 SoCon) at ETSU (2-6, 1-4 SoCon)
Furman (7-1, 5-0 SoCon) at Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 SoCon)
Mercer (6-3, 4-2 SoCon) at The Citadel (0-8, 0-5 SoCon)
Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2 SoCon) at Wofford (0-8, 0-5 SoCon)




Power ranking

1. (1) Furman (7-1, 5-0 SoCon)
Next: at Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 SoCon)

2. (3) Chattanooga (7-2, 6-1 SoCon)
Next: Furman(7-1, 5-0 SoCon)

3. (5) Mercer (6-3, 4-2 SoCon)
Next: at The Citadel(0-0, 0-5 SoCon)

4. (2) Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2SoCon)
Next: at Wofford (0-8, 0-5 SoCon)

5. (4) Samford (5-4, 4-3 SoCon)
Next: Bye

6. (6) ETSU (2-6, 1-4 SoCon)
Next: VMI (3-5, 2-3 SoCon)

7. (7) VMI (3-5, 2-3 SoCon)
Next: at ETSU (2-6, 1-4 SoCon)

8. (8) The Citadel (0-0, 0-5 SoCon)
Next: Mercer (6-3, 4-2 SoCon)

9. (9) Wofford (0-8, 0-5 SoCon)
Next: Western Carolina (5-3, 3-2SoCon)

[Milktruck74]

It has been awhile since I last posted on here. I saw the Furman-ETSU and Chattanooga-VMI scores and was wondering if any of you saw that coming (I didn't). Without further ado, this is where I see it:

!


Yes and no...read previous posts... The SoCon is gonna do SoCon things!!! I can't think of a year in the past 20 or so that the conference didn't have 12 different (and very plausible) finishes with two weeks to go in the season. And we always see a 7th -9th place team with a win over a 2nd or 3rd ranked team. And often times those scenarios involved a 3 way tie and a very complex tiebreaker. IT is just the way of the SoCon!

[Mocs123]

VMI – 27 – I could see this game going either way, but I thought the Keydets had a lot of fight last week and think they win a close one in Johnson City.
ETSU - 24

Furman - 21
Chattanooga – 24 – Another close game in the SoCon, but I think the Mocs are able to win a close one in the Scenic City to clinch a share of the SoCon title.

Mercer – 42 – The Bears continue to roll in Charleston.
The Citadel - 17

Western Carolina – 35 – The Catamounts right the ship and stay in the playoff hunt this week in Spartanburg.
Wofford - 20

Power Rankings – Man this isn’t getting any easier. After Furman, the next three could go in just about any order, the same with the next two or three, and then the bottom two.


Furman – It wasn’t pretty against the Bucs but they got the win.
Chattanooga – Escaped Lexington with the win.
Mercer – The Bears are fighting for their first playoff spot.
Western Carolina – Strugging a bit without their top RB, but still in the playoff hunt.
Samford – Effectively out of the playoff race, but playing spoiler.
VMI – The Keydets are starting to figure out who they are.
ETSU – The Bucs put up a heck of fight against the ‘Dins this past week – are they starting to gel?
Wofford – full rebuild mode in Spartanburg.
The Citadel - Things are not well in the low country.

[FU_Paladin08]

VMI over ETSU
Furman over Chatty
Mercer over The Citadel
WCU over Woffy


Rankings:
Furman
Chatty
Mercer
Western
Samford
VMI
ETSU
Woffy
Citadel

[FUBeAR]

Furman - 21
Chattanooga – 24 – Another close game in the SoCon, but I think the Mocs are able to win a close one in the Scenic City to clinch a share of the SoCon title.

Power Rankings – Man this isn’t getting any easier. After Furman, the next three could go in just about any order


Furman
Chattanooga
Mercer
Western Carolina



*clinch at least a share of the SoCon title - there are paths for either Team to be outright SoCon Champions (IF they win this game) or to earn a share of the SoCon Championship (even IF they lose this game). The loser of this game cannot be outright SoCon Champions, however.

Power Rankings - WHAT??? Every poster on this board AND their small children AND their pets have mocked (or is it Moc'd?) FUBeAR for having Mercer in or around the #2 slot all season...but now you're telling FUBeAR that makes perfect sense????? Does that revelation / epiphany come with an apology to FUBeAR ... or nah?

[ElCid]

Yes and no...read previous posts... The SoCon is gonna do SoCon things!!! I can't think of a year in the past 20 or so that the conference didn't have 12 different (and very plausible) finishes with two weeks to go in the season. And we always see a 7th -9th place team with a win over a 2nd or 3rd ranked team. And often times those scenarios involved a 3 way tie and a very complex tiebreaker. IT is just the way of the SoCon!

2016. It wasn't in doubt at all with two weeks to go. Once we took out Chatty and Wofford mid-season, it was over. We wrapped it up with a bow. But I get you. That is rarely done. Most seasons it's got multiple scenarios. And while the conference has separated a little more than usual this year, there is still a long history of upsets.

That said, it wouldn't be surprising to see either WCU or Mercer get a shock this week. Either another close game or outright loss. Probably not, but it wouldn't be surprising at all. Both teams probably think they got a bye week after a hard fought game last week. We will see if they travel prepared. I thought WCU learned how to win again, but they've slipped a bit. Albeit against good quality teams, but they gotta win against the good ones as well. Injuries aside, a team has to have quality depth to take the prize.

[wcugrad95]

FUBeAR you generally are one of the guys who gives people crap when they use a whole bunch of "ifs" and coulda's in their statements, then you give us a laundry-list of ifs. The consensus expects that the winner of the FU/UTC game has the best chance to land the auto-bid. A win by UTC guarantees them the auto-bid and clinches them at worst a share of the SOCON title. Does that now pass your test?

I mean we could say "if Furman, Mercer, and WCU lose all the rest of their games" is a scenario, right? Low probability, but possible. UTC only has 1 SOCON game left. Win and they can be no worse than the co-champ and will get the auto-bid with the H2H win vs the only other team who can possibly finish 7-1. Lose and they very well might be out of the playoffs. That seems crazy to me - play a close game and I would argue it proves UTC is playoff-worthy rather than the other way around (lose a close game and they aren't???).

As for the Mercer comment, I think pretty much everybody other than you has had Mercer around the 4 spot for several weeks now - many had them at 3 after Samford lost a couple of games. You of course have had them either tied with or right behind Furman all season. With their win on Saturday, they have moved into the 3 spot for most people (up 1 place, but still behind a team they lost to by double digits a couple of weeks ago). I will be interested to see how you rank Mercer this week. Given at one point they had a bigger lead over Western than FU ever did, and given how close Furman's game was playing against a team who's starting QB I think might have been playing on an intramural team in Johnson City last week, I'd think maybe the Bears should be #1 in your rankings? Or surely you'll go 1 and 1a xlolx

[wcugrad95]

That said, it wouldn't be surprising to see either WCU or Mercer get a shock this week. Either another close game or outright loss

I personally would be shocked to see WCU or Mercer lose this week - Mercer proved they are a top-25 team, have plenty of talent that will be hard for Citadel to contain (QB who gets out of trouble and some absolute stud WRs to go along with a tough defense). WCU with all the stupid penalties and turnovers actually proved to me that they can move the ball and score and keep things going until Reid comes back. The Cats showed more guts in this game than they have in the past several years in my opinion. Would I be shocked if the games are closer than expected - it is the SOCON, and of course I have been shocked before. But I expect both teams to win by double-digits barring either of them turning it over 6 times!!!

For WCU, we have to try and get back to a little more balance. Even without Reid, Adams was averaging over 5 YPC against Mercer in the first half. But because of the circumstances and the special teams and defensive scores, WCU went into air-raid mode and ran the ball very few times in the second half. I hope we "run the dang ball" a lot more this coming Saturday. I expect Mercer to just be way more physical against your Bulldogs and to keep you down to around 10-14 points.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR you generally are one of the guys who gives people crap when they use a whole bunch of "ifs" and coulda's in their statements, then you give us a laundry-list of ifs. The consensus expects that the winner of the FU/UTC game has the best chance to land the auto-bid. A win by UTC guarantees them the auto-bid and clinches them at worst a share of the SOCON title. Does that now pass your test?

I mean we could say "if Furman, Mercer, and WCU lose all the rest of their games" is a scenario, right? Low probability, but possible. UTC only has 1 SOCON game left. Win and they can be no worse than the co-champ and will get the auto-bid with the H2H win vs the only other team who can possibly finish 7-1. Lose and they very well might be out of the playoffs. That seems crazy to me - play a close game and I would argue it proves UTC is playoff-worthy rather than the other way around (lose a close game and they aren't???).

As for the Mercer comment, I think pretty much everybody other than you has had Mercer around the 4 spot for several weeks now - many had them at 3 after Samford lost a couple of games. You of course have had them either tied with or right behind Furman all season. With their win on Saturday, they have moved into the 3 spot for most people (up 1 place, but still behind a team they lost to by double digits a couple of weeks ago). I will be interested to see how you rank Mercer this week. Given at one point they had a bigger lead over Western than FU ever did, and given how close Furman's game was playing against a team who's starting QB I think might have been playing on an intramural team in Johnson City last week, I'd think maybe the Bears should be #1 in your rankings? Or surely you'll go 1 and 1a xlolx
You're gonna hurt yourself with all of this overthinking....Are you seeing flashes of light? Does your head hurt on 1 side only?

Trying to decipher the word salad course at the beginning of this 3 course meal of a post - At Least = At Worst - no idea what the point of all those other croutons and snap peas is/are.

On to the Mulligan Stew in Paragraph 3 - This may be hard for you to have noticed, but FUBeAR ain't a Bear that cares what "everybody other than" FUBeAR thinks/does. As a service, just to you (Please remember to tip you waiter), FUBeAR will drop some logic on you...

1) Once we get a few weeks - maybe 4 or 5 into the season, astute people ranking Teams consider the entire body of work of all of the Teams that s/he/it is ranking to have more weight than a single data point (1 game).
2) The 1 game you cite where Mercer and Chatt scored the exact same number of TD's against each other certainly factors into FUBeAR's thinking as he evaluates both Teams' overall body of work.
3) The games against common opponents also factor into FUBeAR's thinking - such as WCU and North Alabama - who were both dominated by Mercer and who both defeated Chatt.
4) Furman proved they were better than Mercer several weeks ago and FUBeAR hasn't seen enough to change that thinking.
5) Mercer, for the 8th year in a row, proved they were a better Team than WCU just last Saturday. FUBeAR doesn't see anything in comparing their overall body of work to change that thinking.
6) FUBeAR has seen Mercer as the 2nd best Team in the SoCon all season, with the exception of some (well-noted and documented) doubt creeping in after the Offensive performance against a very good Chatt Defense, and he's sorry that "everybody other than" FUBeAR has been unable to realize that.

Y'all can hate on FUBeAR for many things, but don't hate on him for being right.

Thank you for dining with us.

[wcugrad95]

At Least = At Worst - no idea what the point of all those other croutons and snap peas is/are.

You added "at least" to what Mocs123 had posted. I was saying that should be changed to at worst - a Moc's win guarantees they get the auto-bid and can be no worse than co-champs. Semantics.

If you go with all the "ifs" then you could have FU, Mercer, and WCU all losing the rest of their games and Chatty as the only playoff team in no matter what happens this Saturday. Very odd scheduling by the league where UTC is done with the conference slate and everybody else will still have 2 more SOCON games left.

[FUBeAR]

You added "at least" to what Mocs123 had posted. I was saying that should be changed to at worst - a Moc's win guarantees they get the auto-bid and can be no worse than co-champs. If you go with all the "ifs" then you could have FU, Mercer, and WCU all losing the rest of their games and Chatty as the only playoff team in no matter what happens this Saturday. Very odd scheduling by the league where UTC is done with the conference slate and everybody else will still have 2 more SOCON games left.
Jeez ..... tough crowd...

"At Least" AND "At Worst" mean the same f'in thing to FUBeAR. Not sure what you think is the difference between the 2.

FUBeAR added that "at least" to the phrasing because Mocs123's phrasing of "clinch a share" doesn't explicitly provide that the winner of the FU @ Chatt game could ALSO still win the SoCon outright. It is a clarifying / augmenting addition to Mocs123's statement, not a rebuttal to or correction of it.

https://www.dictionary.com/e/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/saavy.gif

[Sir William]

ETSU over VMI
Furman over Chattanooga
Mercer over The Citadel
W Carolina over Wofford

Power Rankings

1) Furman
2) Chattanooga
3) Mercer
4) W Carolina
5) Samford
6) ETSU
7) VMI
8) Wofford
9) The Citadel

[Milktruck74]

FUBeAR will drop some logic on you...

1) Once we get a few weeks - maybe 4 or 5 into the season, astute people ranking Teams consider the entire body of work of all of the Teams that s/he/it is ranking to have more weight than a single data point (1 game).
2) The 1 game you cite where Mercer and Chatt scored the exact same number of TD's against each other certainly factors into FUBeAR's thinking as he evaluates both Teams' overall body of work.
3) The games against common opponents also factor into FUBeAR's thinking - such as WCU and North Alabama - who were both dominated by Mercer and who both defeated Chatt.
4) Furman proved they were better than Mercer several weeks ago and FUBeAR hasn't seen enough to change that thinking.
5) Mercer, for the 8th year in a row, proved they were a better Team than WCU just last Saturday. FUBeAR doesn't see anything in comparing their overall body of work to change that thinking.
6) FUBeAR has seen Mercer as the 2nd best Team in the SoCon all season, with the exception of some (well-noted and documented) doubt creeping in after the Offensive performance against a very good Chatt Defense, and he's sorry that "everybody other than" FUBeAR has been unable to realize that.

Y'all can hate on FUBeAR for many things, but don't hate on him for being right.

Thank you for dining with us.

After applying some FooLBare Logic to the games this past weekend, I'd like to congratulate all the ETSUx folks for their big upset win over FooLBare's Periwinkle Horse riders...possibly Cowboys? maybe Goucho's (they are located right there in Berea)... Anyway, since FGs no longer count in FooLBare's cipher, the Mountain Pirates won 8-7. Great Win for GC and a heck of a coaching gamble by going for the 2 pt conversion for the win!!!

Then Applying the most recent common opponent...with Furple losing to ETSUx (again according to this logic), and my Mocs winning 34-3 (and it wasn't really that close)...I guess he will be selecting the Mocs this week!!!

[Mocs123]

[QUOTE=FUBeAR;3154743
4) Furman proved they were better than Mercer several weeks ago and FUBeAR hasn't seen enough to change that thinking.

[/QUOTE]

I agree with that statement, and look forward to seeing the Mocs at #2 in your poll since they proved they were a better team than Mercer two weeks ago. Or is that not how the FUBeAR system works?

What is for certain is that there are four really good teams in the SoCon this season and two really bad teams in the SoCon. Also, after a one year anomaly, a Hatcher coached team is back in the middle of the conference standings.

[FUBeAR]

After applying some FooLBare Logic to the games this past weekend, I'd like to congratulate all the ETSUx folks for their big upset win over FooLBare's Periwinkle Horse riders...possibly Cowboys? maybe Goucho's (they are located right there in Berea)... Anyway, since FGs no longer count in FooLBare's cipher, the Mountain Pirates won 8-7. Great Win for GC and a heck of a coaching gamble by going for the 2 pt conversion for the win!!!

Then Applying the most recent common opponent...with Furple losing to ETSUx (again according to this logic), and my Mocs winning 34-3 (and it wasn't really that close)...I guess he will be selecting the Mocs this week!!!
All part of the calculus, FUBeAR’s mascot fluid friend.

Don’t overthink it as 95 is wont to do and don’t underthink it as you have done here. Think it just right - The FUBeAR Way (copyright pending)

[FUBeAR]

I agree with that statement, and look forward to seeing the Mocs at #2 in your poll since they proved they were a better team than Mercer two weeks ago. Or is that not how the FUBeAR system works?

What is for certain is that there are four really good teams in the SoCon this season and two really bad teams in the SoCon. Also, after a one year anomaly, a Hatcher coached team is back in the middle of the conference standings.
This doesn’t appear to be the apology that FUBeAR recently inquired about

[Milktruck74]

Trying to follow the FooLBare way....I picked a hell of a day to quit drinking!!!

[FUBeAR]

Trying to follow the FooLBare way....I picked a hell of a day to quit drinking!!!
Definitely not part of The FUBeAR Way (copyright pending).

In fact, FUBeAR has been tapped to concoct / supply a portion of the Furman Football Players Association (FFPA) & Furman Football Parents pre-game Communion Juice at our tailgate in the shadow of Finley Stadium this Saturday. We will be ready!

[The Cats]

3) The games against common opponents also factor into FUBeAR's thinking - such as WCU and North Alabama - who were both dominated by Mercer and who both defeated Chatt.

I will admit that Mercer did in fact win the football game, however I don't think your know the definition of dominated, or how to use the term properly - or you just like to throw out wild accusations.

-The final score was 38 to 45 Mercer, I don't think the definition of dominated is a 7 point win.
-Total yards was 474 WCU to 422 Mercer, I don't think that's domination by Mercer either.
-First downs, 24 WCU - 26 Mercer - I don't think two first downs is domination by Mercer
-Turnovers, 5 for WCU - 3 for Mercer. Neither is good, but not the definition of domination.

As a final, a 17-7 win over UNA hardly qualifies as dominated, as well....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9j2XnYXMAAoHmN?format=jpg&name=360x360

[wcugrad95]

I saw the stats and they incorrectly showed WCU with 5 TOs. We actually had 6 - two that directly delivered Mercer 14 points (scoop and score on a fumble on a KO return and a pick-6 where we just threw it directly to the Mercer guy deep in our own territory with nobody between him and the endzone). So WCU had 6 turnovers (3 INT and 3 fumbles), had 12 penalties for 81 yards, and I found it amazing that we actually got the game back to within 3 at one point (38-35) against the #1 defense in the SOCON. Western couldn't have played much worse or done much more to hurt their own chances in the game, yet they were still within an onsides kick of having a chance to try and tie it at the end. So yeah - "dominated" seems pretty exaggerated.

[caribbeanhen]

So if Chatty is so good, why the struggle with VMI ?

[FUBeAR]

A bunch of silly stats and whiny narratives giving Mercer’s outstanding Team and individual Players absolutely no credit for a game in which they clearly, once again, for the 8th year in a row, whipped that Cantamount a$$

So yeah - "dominated" seems pretty exaggerated.
In the video below you can watch every play during the game last Saturday that was run while Western Carolina was leading Mercer…


https://youtu.be/guf_FTQvjYA?feature=shared

To be fully transparent, the video anthology you have just viewed also includes every single play that Western Carolina has run while in the lead in every game against Mercer since the 1st half of the WCU @ Mercer game on October 20, 2018; over 5 years ago.

FUBeAR hopes you enjoyed this feast for your eyes.

[FUBeAR]

So if Chatty is so good, why the struggle with VMI ?
VMI has an excellent Defense, as one with your knowledge of and experience with Coach Rocco might anticipate.

Only 2 Teams’ Offenses this season have been able to put up 4 TD’s on VMI’s Defense - FBS NC State and Mercer.

The VMI D averages giving up about 2.5 TD’s / game. So, if they don’t give up a TD, or multiple TD’s, on O and Special Teams…and their O can figure out how to put up 18-19 points, they might beat you. They only avg scoring 13.25 PPG though.



….and Chatt beats YouDee (or any other CAA TEAM) by 3 scores 8 days a week and twice on Sundays!

[caribbeanhen]

VMI has an excellent Defense, as one with your knowledge of and experience with Coach Rocco might anticipate.

Only 2 Teams’ Offenses this season have been able to put up 4 TD’s on VMI’s Defense - FBS NC State and Mercer.

The VMI D averages giving up about 2.5 TD’s / game. So, if they don’t give up a TD, or multiple TD’s, on O and Special Teams…and their O can figure out how to put up 18-19 points, they might beat you. They only avg scoring 13.25 PPG though.



….and Chatt beats YouDee (or any other CAA TEAM) by 3 scores 8 days a week and twice on Sundays!

might have something to do with playing The Citadel, Wofford, Pioneer team and an embarrassing loss to Bucknell

Chatty should of done better

[FUBeAR]

Chatty should of done better
W

Loss to Bucknell is so embarrassing…Is it?

Let’s look at how some CAA leaders (Richmond, Albany, Villanova, and Elon) might fare against the Bison…



Winner
Scr
Loser
Scr


Bucknell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/964)# 280 (3-5)
21
@ Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)# 251 (3-4)
13


Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)# 251 (3-4)
23
@ Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)# 204 (4-3)
21


@ Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)# 204 (4-3)
45
Morgan St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5114)# 262 (2-5)
3


Morgan St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5114)# 262 (2-5)
17
@ Richmond (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6547)# 179 (6-3)
10


Richmond (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6547)# 179 (6-3)
24
@ Rhode Island (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6516)# 176 (5-4)
17


@ Rhode Island (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6516)# 176 (5-4)
34
New Hampshire (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5342)# 186 (4-4)
28


@ New Hampshire (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5342)# 186 (4-4)
38
SUNY Albany (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/123)# 151 (6-3)
31


SUNY Albany (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/123)# 151
31
Villanova
10


Villanova
21
Elon
0

[OrangeAndBlack]

I'd say Mercer's biggest flaw is the kicking game. It almost cost them the game against Western Carolina (2 misses and 1 make off the upright). Mercer's touchback percentage is 4% (!). Furman has a touchback rate of 67%. Luckily for the Bears, Samford's kicking game is weak as well (18% touchbacks and 5-8 on FG).

[OrangeAndBlack]

First it was ETSU that had their homecoming game vs. Mercer. Then Western Carolina did it! Now The Citadel will have homecoming vs. Mercer.

Mercer's final home game vs. Samford is their own homecoming!

[FUBeAR]

First it was ETSU that had their homecoming game vs. Mercer. Then Western Carolina did it! Now The Citadel will have homecoming vs. Mercer.

Mercer's final home game vs. Samford is their own homecoming!
So…the goal is to go 4-0 on Homecoming. That will be impressive.

Did you enjoy that video FUBeAR produced of all of the plays that have been run while WCU has had a lead in a Football game against Mercer in the past 5 years?

[wcugrad95]

@carribeanhen UTC has struggled with their last few trips to Lexington, VA to play the Keydets. The last two games @ VMI the Keydets won (2021 it was 37-34 and 2019 it was 31-24). As noted, VMI had been improving and they have had a pretty decent defense all season.

Throw in a trap game where the Mocs were looking ahead to this week’s showdown, and finding themselves in a close game was not a huge surprise.

[ElCid]

So if Chatty is so good, why the struggle with VMI ?

VMI is actually trending better. And you know how some teams match up together. Four of the last five in that matchup have been decided by one score. It was a conf road game. And as FUBeAR pointed out, VMIs D has been pretty good. Eh. Chatty is definitely a top 20 team. They screwed the pooch by starting slow to open the season and underestimating UNA. Furman is definitely going to have their hands full.

[wcugrad95]

And FUBeAR I think there were multiple posts that said nobody argued that Mercer won the game. WCU’s mistakes all count and as the game unfolded MU deserved to win. You can’t beat good teams playing like that, and Mercer is a good football team.

We aren’t trying to pretend that the game was “inches away” like you did with the UTC team beating the Bears by double-digits. Your FoolBare (copyright @ MilkTruck74) system used for the UTC vs Mercer game would actually show WCU scored more offensive TDs than the Bears did in a close game, and it would show the Mocs led the entire game. You can use those data points to assist tweaking your algorithms. Calling the UTC game really close and the WCU game “domination” is what was questioned.

[OrangeAndBlack]

So…the goal is to go 4-0 on Homecoming. That will be impressive.

Did you enjoy that video FUBeAR produced of all of the plays that have been run while WCU has had a lead in a Football game against Mercer in the past 5 years?

It was cinema magic. Loved every second of it.

[FUBeAR]

It was cinema magic. Loved every second of it.


https://youtu.be/bFpZgDhS00U?feature=shared

[FUBeAR]

there were multiple posts that said nobody argued that Mercer won the game.
SO, SO BIG of you Cantamount Fans and Head Coach to actually acknowledge that the numbers on the scoreboard at the end of the game was the actual score of the game. That’s very brave of y’all.

FUBeAR has seen tens, if not hundreds of WCU fans posts & tweets discussing how the Cantamounts GAVE away the game and heard the Cantamount Head Coach say that about 196 times on his whine-tasting of a Coach’s Show yesterday.

FUBeAR has seen and heard the same about how multiple penalties called or not called cost the Cantamounts the game while listening to the WCU Coach brag about running a “pick play” for a TD that was clearly uncalled OPI…and FUBeAR laughed as Mercer’s 5-9 Safety, Lance Wise, picked off a pass (his 2nd Pick6 in 2 weeks), because the WCU QB couldn’t see him as he was standing next to and shielded by a 6-8 WCU OT, who was ‘in the pattern’ downfield…apparently…as is so often the case when WCU runs their RPO stuff and almost never get called for ineligible downfield.

What FUBeAR hasn’t seen is ANY Cantamount Fan or affiliated person acknowledging that Mercer’s Players went into Cullowhee, KNOCKED those balls out of the Cantamount Players hands, ran or dove in front of and intercepted those Cantamount passes and FORCED every single one of those WCU turnovers.

"HEATH" IS A TYPICAL CANTAMOUNT FAN…
https://twitter.com/heathhottakes/status/1718391275605401667
What FUBeAR also hasn’t seen is ANY Cantamount Fan or affiliated person acknowledging that Mercer’s Team and Players went into Whitmire on WCU’s Homecoming and jumped all over the Cantamounts, never trailing (as they never have to WCU in over 5 years), and led by 2 or 3 scores for almost half the game (28:39 to be precise).

The Cantamounts got their a$$e$ spanked by a better Mercer Team - for the 8th time in a row - and just refuse to admit that TRUTH.

[caribbeanhen]

W

Loss to Bucknell is so embarrassing…Is it?

Let’s look at how some CAA leaders (Richmond, Albany, Villanova, and Elon) might fare against the Bison…



Winner
Scr
Loser
Scr


Bucknell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/964)# 280 (3-5)
21
@ Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)# 251 (3-4)
13


Cornell (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/1910)# 251 (3-4)
23
@ Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)# 204 (4-3)
21


@ Yale (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/9177)# 204 (4-3)
45
Morgan St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5114)# 262 (2-5)
3


Morgan St (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5114)# 262 (2-5)
17
@ Richmond (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6547)# 179 (6-3)
10


Richmond (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6547)# 179 (6-3)
24
@ Rhode Island (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6516)# 176 (5-4)
17


@ Rhode Island (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/6516)# 176 (5-4)
34
New Hampshire (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5342)# 186 (4-4)
28


@ New Hampshire (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/5342)# 186 (4-4)
38
SUNY Albany (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/123)# 151 (6-3)
31


SUNY Albany (https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/123)# 151
31
Villanova
10


Villanova
21
Elon
0




Any loss to Bucknell by a Southern conference team is not a good look and you know this to be true

[FUBeAR]

Any loss to Bucknell by a Southern conference team is not a good look and you know this to be true
The 2023 season that the CAA is having is “not a good look” even though no one is actually seeing it there on FLO.

What is the record number of 1st round Playoff Losses for CAA Teams? Know it’s really a high number, so this year’s CAA miasma probably won’t be able to top it with only 3 Teams in the Playoffs.

[caribbeanhen]

The 2023 season that the CAA is having is “not a good look” even though no one is actually seeing it there on FLO.

What is the record number of 1st round Playoff Losses for CAA Teams? Know it’s really a high number, so this year’s CAA miasma probably won’t be able to top it with only 3 Teams in the Playoffs.

I’m not here to talk CAA but since you insist

Watch the first few minutes of Delaware at Towson

Yarns first play

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wwOrE44ZCnw

[FUBeAR]

I’m not here to talk CAA but since you insist

Watch the first few minutes of Delaware at Towson

Yarns first play

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wwOrE44ZCnw
Is that Cape Henlopen vs. Sussex Central?

[caribbeanhen]

Is that Cape Henlopen vs. Sussex Central?



Marcus Yarns (http://www.gohens.net/player_detail.php?pid=2797)
Jr. (0)
RB
Salisbury, MD/Parkside

[FUBeAR]

I'd say Mercer's biggest flaw is the kicking game. It almost cost them the game against Western Carolina (2 misses and 1 make off the upright). Mercer's touchback percentage is 4% (!). Furman has a touchback rate of 67%. Luckily for the Bears, Samford's kicking game is weak as well (18% touchbacks and 5-8 on FG).
FUBeAR did notice 1 change in the Bears’ Kicking game Saturday that has been made - with significant improvement - an improvement FUBeAR knew would be necessary as early as the 1st quarter of the North Alabama game. FUBeAR won’t ‘call out’ what this change is, but he knows it did prevent at least 1 potentially catastrophic play that most likely would have occurred otherwise. Also, most likely, that catastrophic play would have resulted in a TD for WCU.

So - you are correct - the “Foot” part of Football is not really a strength for Mercer right now, but it’s a work in progress and improvement is happening…just slowly…and perhaps imperceptibly to the casual fan.

[FUBeAR]

Marcus Yarns (http://www.gohens.net/player_detail.php?pid=2797)
Jr. (0)
RB
Salisbury, MD/Parkside



So he transferred from Salisbury Parkside to Cape Henlopen?

[kdinva]

VMI is actually trending better. ....

and if VMI played Bucknell this weekend, Keydets by 17 or more.

[Milktruck74]

So if Chatty is so good, why the struggle with VMI ?

Lexington has always been a tough place for the Mocs to play. It is a solid 8 hour bus trip, and the game has traditionally been an early start. There are very few hotels near by that can accomodate the visiting team so there is usually at least an hour bus ride to the stadium the morning of...there are about 100 fans that make the trip, and the stands behind the team are about the size of Johnson Haygood...HA. Anyway, one of the team busses had a flat on the way, and it stretched the 8 hours a bit...and then the team all crammed onto 2 busses to finish the ride. VMI always gives Chattanooga All they have. There are plenty of factors as to why Chattanooga Struggled on Saturday, but ultimately they came away with a SoCon road win, and anyway you can get one of those, you take it!!!

I played at VMI once in prep School (their JVs) and twice in college, it is a very different atmsophere....hard to describe, but anyone that has done it knows. As bad as it is for the Mocs (8 hours in a bus), it has to be even harder for Mercer, Sammy, and Citadel...its a hard hard ride.

[caribbeanhen]

Lexington has always been a tough place for the Mocs to play. It is a solid 8 hour bus trip, and the game has traditionally been an early start. There are very few hotels near by that can accomodate the visiting team so there is usually at least an hour bus ride to the stadium the morning of...there are about 100 fans that make the trip, and the stands behind the team are about the size of Johnson Haygood...HA. Anyway, one of the team busses had a flat on the way, and it stretched the 8 hours a bit...and then the team all crammed onto 2 busses to finish the ride. VMI always gives Chattanooga All they have. There are plenty of factors as to why Chattanooga Struggled on Saturday, but ultimately they came away with a SoCon road win, and anyway you can get one of those, you take it!!!

I played at VMI once in prep School (their JVs) and twice in college, it is a very different atmsophere....hard to describe, but anyone that has done it knows. As bad as it is for the Mocs (8 hours in a bus), it has to be even harder for Mercer, Sammy, and Citadel...it’s a hard hard ride.

Good Info and much appreciated

I took a few rough rides, 6 month round trip all expenses paid to Antarctica with 140 sailors on a 269 floating red football, even had a fight with an ice shelf that opened a 120 ft gash (the flat tire) on the port side, made it to Valparaiso, Chile so all was well.

[Milktruck74]

Good Info and much appreciated

I took a few rough rides, 6 month round trip all expenses paid to Antarctica with 140 sailors on a 269 floating red football, even had a fight with an ice shelf that opened a 120 ft gash (the flat tire) on the port side, made it to Valparaiso, Chile so all was well.

I can appreciate that. I got the "opportunity" to spend 60 days onboard a 224' blue bobber, albeit half of that was at Mallory Pier. SO, no comprehension of what 6 mos was like. But the 72" rack was about as accommodating for a 75" 310# guy as a seat on a commercial bus!

[caribbeanhen]

I can appreciate that. I got the "opportunity" to spend 60 days onboard a 224' blue bobber, albeit half of that was at Mallory Pier. SO, no comprehension of what 6 mos was like. But the 72" rack was about as accommodating for a 75" 310# guy as a seat on a commercial bus!

Mallory pier Key West?

Holy crap, I know those 72” racks very well and for a guy your size to have experienced that even for a few nights says wonders about you.

[Milktruck74]

Mallory pier Key West?

Holy crap, I know those 72” racks very well and for a guy your size to have experienced that even for a few nights says wonders about you.

Negatory Ghostrider!!!!! Mallory has a beautiful view across the East river to the Bronx, that is only interrupted by the Throngs Neck Bridge. Had it been Key West in one of the coldest January and Februarys on record, that "average sized" rack might have been a little more bearable for this slightly above average sized dude!!!!

And like I said, I couldn't imagine a 6 month float....even for a 68" tall dude!!! That time in the that rack made me question my future career choices and eventually led to me ending up in Chattanooga instead!

[caribbeanhen]

Negatory Ghostrider!!!!! Mallory has a beautiful view across the East river to the Bronx, that is only interrupted by the Throngs Neck Bridge. Had it been Key West in one of the coldest January and Februarys on record, that "average sized" rack might have been a little more bearable for this slightly above average sized dude!!!!

And like I said, I couldn't imagine a 6 month float....even for a 68" tall dude!!! That time in the that rack made me question my future career choices and eventually led to me ending up in Chattanooga instead!


HaHa. That is some view as I know the bridge but avoid the Bronx

was your view somehow associated with SUNY Maritime?

[Milktruck74]

USMMA

[FUBeAR]

USMMA
FUBeAR was a Meteorologist in the Navy...before he joined the CIA.


How 'bout them Mocs!!!!

[caribbeanhen]

FUBeAR was a Meteorologist in the Navy...before he joined the CIA.


How 'bout them Mocs!!!!

let me know if you want me to post your Navy talent night pics

Where can you find pleasure
Search the world for treasure
Learn science technology
Where can you begin to make your dreams all come true
On the land or on the sea
Where can you learn to fly
Play in sports and skin dive
Study oceanography


- - - Updated - - -


USMMA

outstanding

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR's PRECISE PREDICULATIONS & PERFECT POWER RANKINGS

Saturday, November 4, 2023 SoCon Football


Away
Home
Time
PRECISE PREDICULATION


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
1P
Despite what some may think, particularly those that position themselves as National FCS Pundits, but are really nothing more than Big Sky and/of MVFC FanBoys, both of these Teams have really good defenses. While ETSU is injury, talent, and youth-challenged to get their Offense together, VMI's is starting to gel. This is certainly not the VMI Team that was pushed by Davidson and lost to Bucknell. Their emerging Offense gets the edge for them in this road game.

FINAL SCORE: VMI 24 - ETSU 14


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30UTC (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1:30P
2 outstanding Football Teams that do a lot of things right are going to face off in this de facto SoCon Championship Game. Losing RB Ford is a tough blow for the Mocs (and for him), but his former understudies can certainly do enough (at least) to keep Defenses from risking light boxes to focus only on covering their 3 outstanding waterbug type receivers. The KaliforniaKid gunslinger the TrainBirds hired to clean up this SoCon town is a slick dealer. He makes quick, fearless decisions and the ball flies out with pace. That has given the Chatt O a different look this year. And the D has looked different too. Not better though. Talented, yes...but a little 'off' somehow. Maybe meshing in so many new Players comes with challenges. Anyway...Furman is just solid everywhere. Sure, their Kicking Team may have an off-game in Cullowhee or their O may not be clicking on Homecoming, but another unit just picks up the slack and the Paladins put together another victory. FUBeAR thinks Chatt is going to be challenged to stop Furman's running game and the game is gonna get shorter because of that...and then FU is gonna toss it around a little bit to the 6-7 TE or the RoBerto out of the backfield or Shiflett or Harris or Ferguson or the other Harris or....well, you get the point. And, I think FU has enough talent and D-Front Depth that Artopeous is gonna feel some of that 9-sack heat that Hiers felt and that double the number of previous total sacks that Gonzales felt. It's gonna be a war and it's not gonna be easy for either Team, but the Paladins, currently alone in 1st place in the SoCon, pull away and clinch the AutoBid...and at least a share of the SoCon Championship.

FINAL SCORE: Furman 33 - Chattanooga 21
(you can read more about this score projection here -> https://gopaladins.com/viewtopic.php?p=79048#p79048 if you care to and have interest in SoCon Football Championship history. If you don't...FUBeAR don't care. Keydet Fans will want to read the "story behind the score"... or maybe not. It doesn't end well for the Roos.)


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
2P
The bellhops came out against Samford and looked like they wanted to run their old O...and looked good doing it, until they got too far behind and had to change up to today's O. FUBeAR knows they are going to be full of surprises this week and they will play HARD. They will do everything they can to find an edge and overcome the significant talent difference. Mercer is on a mission and FUBeAR thinks they'll be able to live with the success they had last week. Gonna go 1 of 2 ways. Mercer will totally control the game and blow CIT out early OR it's nervy and Mercer finds a way to win late. Let's split the difference.

FINAL SCORE: Mercer 31 - The Citadel 14


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
3P
If the Catamounts were heading to Lexington this week instead of SparkleCity, FUBeAR would be very, very worried for the CullowheeClan's playoff lives. But Wofford needs to play to get better and they were off last week. WCU may have some issues early, but they should snap out of it and remember what they came to do. Could see some turnovers continuing to plague the purple Cats and penalties could remain a problem...but they do win this one after a bit of early sluggishness.

FINAL SCORE: WCU 42 - Wofford 21




FUBeAR's PERFECT POWER RANKINGS

1) Furman (7-1 / 5-0 - SOLELY IN 1st PLACE in the SoCon) - SnakyTrainBirds will try to know the KnobleKnights from their lofty perch atop the SoCon, but until someone does prove and show they are better...they remain here

2) Mercer (6-3 / 4-2) - Someone in this thread said it make perfect sense to rank Mercer here - where FUBeAR has had the Bears ranked almost all season. So, he'll just leave the Bears here. If you have any questions about why, ask that other poster. He know.

3) Chattanooga (7-2 / 6-1 - ALONE IN 2nd PLACE in the SoCon STANDINGS) - Excellent Team. A little less horsepower without their F150, but the Mocs OC knows how to transition a GREAT running Offense into primarily a Passing Offense, so they'll continue to work thru that. Defense still needs to gel more if they are going to make the Playoff run that they can.

4) Samford (5-4 / 4-3) - FUBeAR has come to believe that pre-season expectations weighed heavily on this Samford Team and it hurt them. They seem to be playing much freer now that they are eliminated from retaining the SoCon title and all but eliminated from making the Playoffs. Perhaps with the Offense they run, it's critical that they can just play loose without any pressure. They are certainly doing that in both the Passing and Running game. Even the Defense seems to be stepping up. After a week of getting healed and more loose, FUBeAR is very concerned about Samford knocking the Bears out of the Playoffs (assuming Mercer TCB's in Chucktown this week) for the 2nd year in a row. And he can certainly see them blowing out UT-Martin to end the season. IF those 2 things happen...do they somehow get back into the Playoff convo?

5) WCU (5-3 / 3-2) - FUBeAR knows he's said several times that WCU was certainly a Top 4 Team in the SoCon...and, yes...that is actually a 5) over there to the left. As FUBeAR watched how free and easy Samford is playing and watched how tight, mistake-prone, and penalty-ridden WCU is now playing...plus missing their best Player, he just doesn't, honestly, see the Catamounts as being better than Samford right now. And, yes, he knows the score of the home game with the 5 hour weather delay 2 or 3 months ago. This could change, but right now, friends, this is where the 3-2 Catamounts should be slotted in SoCon rankings.

6) VMI (3-5 / 2-3) - As you may have been able to tell, FUBeAR is starting to like this Keydets Team. He could see them pulling off upsets in the weeks ahead - they have 2 purple Teams on their future schedule that are feeling pretty good about themselves. VMI has the ability to spoil at least 1 of those Teams' parties.

7) ETSU (2-6 / 1-4) - Really solid D with some outstanding Players. But shooting blanks on O. Too young, not enough talent, etc. etc. They are playing hard and doing the best they can with what they have.

8T) Wofford (0-8 / 0-5) - trying to get better, playing hard
8T) The Citadel (0-8 / 0-5) - having fun, playing hard

[caribbeanhen]

It was much easier to pick Furman over Chattanooga then it was to pick Furman over Western Carolina

[FUBeAR]

It was much easier to pick Furman over Chattanooga then it was to pick Furman over Western CarolinaSeemed to take about the same amount of effort to FUBeAR. Superior Team over outstanding, yet at least slightly inferior Team. What's hard?

[caribbeanhen]

Seemed to take about the same amount of effort to FUBeAR. Superior Team over outstanding, yet at least slightly inferior Team. What's hard?

I don’t know… tell us Fubby haha

Last week's results are finally updated:



Week 9



Caribbeanhen
19


dewey
19


ElCid
19


Fcsbuff319
19


mvemjsunpx
18


The Cats
18


atthewbon
17


Carolina010
17


centraljerseycat
17


crusader11
17


uofmman1122
17


Catbooster
16


JacksFan40
16


JALMOND
16


McNeese75
16


MSUBobcat
16


ncspiderfan
16


RahRahRabbits
16


bonarae
15


grizband
15


KPSUL
15


POD Knows
15


Puddin Tane
15


Wapiti
15


Bisonator
14


Chalupa Batman
14


FUBeAR
14


MR. CHICKEN
14


MTfan4life
13


Go Lehigh TU owl
12


Roamingriz
12

[FUBeAR]

I don’t know… tell us Fubby haha

Last week's results are finally updated:


Week 9



Caribbeanhen
19


FUBeAR
14




https://youtu.be/JFvujknrBuE?feature=shared

Besides...you're way better at picking MerriHill over Sacred Francis and St. LIU over St. Heart than FUBeAR is.

[caribbeanhen]

“If UD stayed in FCS, sure they could make more deep playoff runs. But they would likely look like the DII 78 and 79 playoff runs against opponents like Mississippi College, Virginia Union and Winston Salem State. Yeah, the Hens played those teams in the playoffs. This is what the FCS playoffs are starting to look like sans a very small handful of teams. If UD stayed in FCS, sure they could make more deep playoff runs. But they would likely look like the DII 78 and 79 playoff runs against opponents like Mississippi College, Virginia Union and Winston Salem State. Yeah, the Hens played those teams in the playoffs. This is what the FCS playoffs are starting to look like sans a very small handful of teams. I mean Furman at #2 in any poll? Give me a break.

No thanks. Get the move done.”

Posted up on Gohens this morning ….. get on it FuBeaR

[FUBeAR]

“If UD stayed in FCS, sure they could make more deep playoff runs. But they would likely look like the DII 78 and 79 playoff runs against opponents like Mississippi College, Virginia Union and Winston Salem State. Yeah, the Hens played those teams in the playoffs. This is what the FCS playoffs are starting to look like sans a very small handful of teams. I mean Furman at #2 in any poll? Give me a break.

No thanks. Get the move done.”

Posted up on Gohens this morning ….. get on it FuBeaR
Dumbasses gonna dumbass and Delaware certainly has more than their share. Heck, they’re even exporting ‘em …. [skates away from that line]

BTW - you’ve spent a good bit of time posted up in this thread this week. Searching for relevance, maybe or, perhaps took a wrong turn trying to find a CAA game on TV.

Did you make your full slate of SoCon picks and publish your current SoCon Power Rankings here yet?

BTW2 - Delaware Football is winless against Furman Football. Let the rest of your fine feathered (AKA dumbass) friends KNOW THAT!

[caribbeanhen]

Dumbasses gonna dumbass and Delaware certainly has more than their share. Heck, they’re even exporting ‘em …. [skates away from that line]

BTW - you’ve spent a good bit of time posted up in this thread this week. Did you make your full slate of SoCon picks and publish your current SoCon Power Rankings here yet?

Power rankings?

here is mine

Furman

[FUBeAR]

Power rankings?

here is mine

FurmanFurman is just 1 of 5 … dang near 6 now that VMI is starting to heat up … Playoff Quality SoCon Teams that would cut any CAA Team’s a$$.

Rank those 6 and pick all the SoCon games or FUBeAR is going to have to ask MilkTruck to escort you off the premises.

[wcugrad95]

Delaware won the I-AA/FCS national championship in 2003. They made it to the championship game in 2007 and 2010. Several of those playoff seasons prior to 2010 ended with a loss to a SOCON team (App, GaSo, Marshall, and yes - even Furman). Since losing the Championship game in 2010, unless I am missing something, it looks like Delaware has been to the playoffs 3 times in the last 12 seasons (with a semifinal run in 2020 under your old coach). Not throwing arrows at you @caribbeanhen, but that isn't quite the same as NDSU or App State (or maybe what we are seeing start at SDSU) where a team just totally dominated the FCS ranks with multiple national championships in a row and didn't really have a set of peers capable of beating them regularly.

Delaware draws tons of people, has plenty of money, and I am sure has as good a chance as any of the other recent teams to move up. And I totally get why Delaware wants to move up. But blaming the competition seems a little off base to me given the last decade of results. UD is very good this year, and might win it all, but that would be 1 in 20 years.

[caribbeanhen]

Furman is just 1 of 5 … dang near 6 now that VMI is starting to heat up … Playoff Quality SoCon Teams that would cut any CAA Team’s a$$.

Rank those 6 and pick all the SoCon games or FUBeAR is going to have to ask MilkTruck to escort you off the premises.

VMI is starting to heat up? Is Danny rubbing 2 little Rocco’s together… too funny

[caribbeanhen]

Delaware won the I-AA/FCS national championship in 2003. They made it to the championship game in 2007 and 2010. Several of those playoff seasons prior to 2010 ended with a loss to a SOCON team (App, GaSo, Marshall, and yes - even Furman). Since losing the Championship game in 2010, unless I am missing something, it looks like Delaware has been to the playoffs 3 times in the last 12 seasons (with a semifinal run in 2020 under your old coach). Not throwing arrows at you @caribbeanhen, but that isn't quite the same as NDSU or App State (or maybe what we are seeing start at SDSU) where a team just totally dominated the FCS ranks with multiple national championships in a row and didn't really have a set of peers capable of beating them regularly.

Delaware draws tons of people, has plenty of money, and I am sure has as good a chance as any of the other recent teams to move up. And I totally get why Delaware wants to move up. But blaming the competition seems a little off base to me given the last decade of results. UD is very good this year, and might win it all, but that would be 1 in 20 years.

95 the last 10 years of Delaware football have been labeled the Decade of Darkness

Coaching change

from June of 2022 … take a look at first post. I wanted Delaware to become the next JMU at this level but way to many Delaware fans are all saddled up and ready to head out to El Paso and CUSA immediately

https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?306661-Why-not-Delaware

[kdinva]

Furman 27; UTC 24
Mercer 48; The Citadel 14
VMI 24; ETSU 20
WCU 35; Wofford 13.

[OrangeAndBlack]

Furman 28, UTC 17
Mercer 35, The Citadel 9
VMI 20, ETSU 10
WCU 33, Wofford 17

I copied kdinva's homework and changed it a little bit.

[tallgeorgiagent]

7-3 Mocs at half. Should be more than that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ElCid]

About a minute left in the first half in Charleston and Mercer just had their first positive yard of the game. Someone needs to check on FubEARs wellbeing. Lol. Lots of game left left but Mercer has been sleepwalking. Dogs playing best game of the year so far.

[OrangeAndBlack]

About a minute left in the first half in Charleston and Mercer just had their first positive yard of the game. Someone needs to check on FubEARs wellbeing. Lol. Lots of game left left but Mercer has been sleepwalking. Dogs playing best game of the year so far.

FUBear's breathing has stabilized as Furman leads 10-7 now and Mercer 24-10.

[kdinva]

Furman wins a great game: 17-14.

[SU DOG]

Great job by the Furman Freshman QB. Mocs fans may not agree, but I question some of the play calls that their offense ran - unbelievable IMO.

[PaladinNation]

That was one the weirdest games I've watched.
Big win for the DINS!
Carson Jones started a bit shaky but you could tell each series he was getting more confident.
Credit the Furman D. If not for two wacky pass plays, I'm not sure the Mocs score a touchdown.

[crusader11]

Is WCU in must-win mode here? I'm not sure 7-4 with a loss to previously 0-8 Wofford gets them in.

[FUBeAR]

Appreciate all the love

FUBeAR is happier than a pig in 💩

[ElCid]

That said, it wouldn't be surprising to see either WCU or Mercer get a shock this week. Either another close game or outright loss. Probably not, but it wouldn't be surprising at all. Both teams probably think they got a bye week after a hard fought game last week. We will see if they travel prepared.

Told you. My Dogs kept it close for almost three quarters and WCU is hanging on by their finger nails late in fourth. It really was obvious.

[Mocs123]

Great job by the Furman Freshman QB. Mocs fans may not agree, but I question some of the play calls that their offense ran - unbelievable IMO.

I think there are lot's of Moc fans that agree.

[Mocs123]

BTW - Congrats to Furman on the win today. I hope Huff is OK and you can make some noise in the playoffs. Lot's of coulda-woulda-shoulda's for the Mocs, but thus is the life of a Moc fan.

[PaladinNation]

BTW - Congrats to Furman on the win today. I hope Huff is OK and you can make some noise in the playoffs. Lot's of coulda-woulda-shoulda's for the Mocs, but thus is the life of a Moc fan.

The MOCS IMO deserve a Playoff spot… that was a hard fought game.

[FUBeAR]

Chattanooga absolutely deserves a playoff bid!

[wcugrad95]

Crazy to me that UTC in an old-fashioned slobber-knocker will probably miss the playoffs. If anything today probably showed that they belong. 4 points away from the auto-bid and now possibly out just seems wrong.

And WCU. I know we have injuries, but man - next dude up. Wofford hadn’t score more than 20 all season. So Reid and some O-lineman out doesn’t explain all the stupid penalties and the defense giving up 25 points to the Terriers. In year’s past that is a game Western probably figures out how to lose, so I guess a road win is a lot better than a loss. But that was ugly.

[Mocs123]

Crazy to me that UTC in an old-fashioned slobber-knocker will probably miss the playoffs. If anything today probably showed that they belong. 5 points away from the auto-bid and now possibly out just seems wrong.

And WCU. I know we have injuries, but man - next dude up. Wofford hadn’t score more than 20 all season. So Reid and some O-lineman out doesn’t explain all the stupid penalties and the defense giving up 25 points to the Terriers. In year’s past that is a game Western probably figures out how to lose, so I guess a road win is a lot better than a loss. But that was ugly.

A win is a win. It seems like every team has a down game or two - just look at both the Mocs and Paladins last week where we struggled with VMI and ETSU respectively.

[crusader11]

Agree with others who have said Chattanooga deserves an at-large. They’ll for sure be in the last four in/out discussion on Sunday.

[gofurman]

The MOCS IMO deserve a Playoff spot… that was a hard fought game.

yes they do. What a great defense !

and for Furman I hope Huff is ok.

nothing against our youngster at qb - what a first game! To win the conference on the road -
but I am sure we would like to have Huff to show the nation what our SoCon has to offer. Best to have
a senior qb in the post season

[kdinva]

Agree with others who have said Chattanooga deserves an at-large. They’ll for sure be in the last four in/out discussion on Sunday.

ooooh, man.....that lost to North Alabama may cost the Mocs.....we'll see in 15 days.

[ElCid]

ooooh, man.....that lost to North Alabama may cost the Mocs.....we'll see in 15 days.

I'm not sure everyone is all worried about the Mocs. They got a week off before they take care of an Alabama who will be looking ahead to their game with Auburn. Ripe for the taking. Geez.

[crusader11]

ooooh, man.....that lost to North Alabama may cost the Mocs.....we'll see in 15 days.

True.

There's a really good chance that the SoCon has three 7-4 teams at the end of the regular season.

Chattanooga is almost assuredly 7-4 after losing to Alabama.

If Samford wins out (UT Martin and Mercer), they're 7-4.

In the above scenario, that makes Mercer 7-4.

One (and maybe even two) of these teams are getting left behind.

...and this isn't even taking into account that there could be a fourth 7-4 team in the picture (Western Carolina). VMI is frisky and hosts WCU in their season finale.

[Gene Henley]

True.

There's a really good chance that the SoCon has three 7-4 teams at the end of the regular season.

Chattanooga is almost assuredly 7-4 after losing to Alabama.

If Samford wins out (UT Martin and Mercer), they're 7-4.

In the above scenario, that makes Mercer 7-4.

One (and maybe even two) of these teams are getting left behind.

...and this isn't even taking into account that there could be a fourth 7-4 team in the picture (Western Carolina). VMI is frisky and hosts WCU in their season finale.

19 SoCon teams have won 6 conference games or more since the field expanded to 24 in 2013. Only two (2013 UTC due to three-way tie for first and 2021 Mercer due to the Point game) didn't make the playoffs.

I believe that's going to be put to the test this year. But Mercer and Western's roads aren't easy. I still think four will get in: Furman, UTC, Western and Mercer, unless Samford wins out.

[wcugrad95]

Even if Samford wins out, they can't get to 6 SOCON wins (already have losses to FU, UTC, and WCU). They could get to 7 total wins, but one would be over a non-D1 team and they would have a similar problem as Mercer had in that previous year (and that WCU had a couple of different seasons). I know that officially there is no specific rule that you need 7 D1 wins, but IMO it certainly would hurt and keep the Bulldogs out if they were being compared to other 7-win teams. I think the only way for the SOCON to get to 4 is for Mercer and WCU to win out and for the committee to look completely at what UTC did against the teams they played that were ranked when they played them. UTC will have an early-season win over a ranked at the time Samford, a good win over Mercer, a great showing against the #2 Paladins, and a game that literally was down to the last play when Western was highly ranked.

My guess is if WCU or Mercer either lose a game we would be playing with fire and probably out. If we both win 8 (and 6-2 in the SOCON) we are both in. I wonder if that would help or hurt Chattanooga's chances? Means they would have 2 other playoff teams on their resume, but means they are now behind two 8-win teams.

[FUBeAR]

True.

There's a really good chance that the SoCon has three 7-4 teams at the end of the regular season.

Chattanooga is almost assuredly 7-4 after losing to Alabama.

If Samford wins out (UT Martin and Mercer), they're 7-4.

In the above scenario, that makes Mercer 7-4.

One (and maybe even two) of these teams are getting left behind.

...and this isn't even taking into account that there could be a fourth 7-4 team in the picture (Western Carolina). VMI is frisky and hosts WCU in their season finale.
LOL - Cru tryna type his wishes into existence.

Don’t worry Cru. Fordham’s gonna do y’all a solid this week and get a 7-4 HC Team PL autobidded into the Playoffs with a guaranteed 1st round home win over the NEC Autobid.

Wasting pixels anyway. A 7-4 PL Team wasn’t getting in ahead of any 7-4 SoCon Teams - with the possible exception of Samford due to their D2 win.

And since y’all will have that AutoBid … BEAT ARMY!!