SoCon 2023 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 9

[Mocs123]

I didn't see a thread for this week....so discuss the SoCon in week 9.

[bonarae]

Games for this week:

UTC at VMI
ETSU at Furman
Mercer at WCU
The Citadel at Wofford

My picks:
UTC
Furman
WCU
Wofford - hard to pick this one... like Demons-McNeese over in the SLC.

[FUBeAR]

A Friday pre-game post in the SoCon Week 8 thread…


So…at this point, it is near unanimous that the peeps without a horse in the race or a cat in the fight, are picking WCU over Furman.

That tracks with all of the National FCS pundits.

Not even sure that Furman should waste the money to drive up & back.Also in the AGS Pick’em Contest, 22 of 31 (71%) picked WCU to defeat Furman.

No Bear in the brawl, nor Cat in the fight this week?

Choose wisely.


* OrangeAndBlack, a Mercer-aligned SoCon picker, was the only non-FU-aligned SoCon picker who correctly picked the Paladins. Interesting, huh?

[Sir William]

Citadel plays at Samford, not at Wofford.

Chattanooga over VMI
Furman over ETSU
W Carolina over Mercer
Samford over The Citadel


Power Rankings

1) Furman
2) W Carolina
3) Chattanooga
4) Mercer
5) Samford
6) ETSU
7) VMI
8) The Citadel
9) Wofford

[wcugrad95]

FWIW looks like WCU's Reid will be held out for probably a couple of weeks (per his own posts). Huge game for both WCU and Mercer this weekend. A win and WCU should be well on their way to the playoffs. A win by the Bears could muddy the waters. The SOCON could be looking at maybe a clear 2 teams in the playoffs (10-1 FU and 9-2 WCU if they win Saturday), maybe 2 teams clearly in and one with a good chance (9-2 FU, 9-2 WCU, and 8-3 UTC if they pull the upset), or we can have FU as the only one clearly in and then several teams hoping for a bid (Mercer and WCU at 8-3 if the Bears win Saturday and UTC at either 8-3 or 7-4 depending on that Furman game).

As they say, it is getting real now. The WCU/Mercer game in the grand scheme of things is probably bigger for Western than the Furman game was. The loss Saturday makes it really tough to be a conference champ, but losing to a top-3 team doesn't hurt post-season chances that much. A loss this weekend would move WCU down and Mercer up probably into those "first 4" or "last 4" conversations.

Western looks like they will be a little healthier - Reid was out against FU but so were several other players. WCU will have to run the football better (and commit to it) to beat Mercer.

[Mocs123]

Chattanooga -24 – The Keydets have seemingly had the Mocs number lately and Lexington is a tough place to play, but the Mocs should beat the Keydets by multiple scores. Let’s just hope that the Mocs aren’t looking ahead to Furman.
VMI -13

ETSU - 9
Furman – 41 – The Bucs head to Travelers Rest trying to figure out who they are as a team, but the ‘Dins are rolling, and that won’t change this week. Furman wins big.

Mercer 21
Western Carolina 41 – Mercer looks like the last significant hurdle to the Catamounts playoff chances. They’re not quite as explosive without Reid, but I still think they beat the Bears by multiple scores.

The Citadel-17
Samford 41 – The Battle of the Bulldogs, and at the end of the day the Bulldogs from the low country will still be looking for their first D1 win.

Power Rankings


Furman – Huge win this past week solidifies the top spot.
Western Carolina – A little less explosive with Reid out, but still looking solid for the playoffs.
Chattanooga – Another week passed of do or die keeping their playoff hopes alive.
Mercer – Fighting for their playoff lives – with a big test this week.
Samford – Effectively out of the playoff race, but playing spoiler.
VMI – Still in the running for the playoffs, but with the gauntlet of UTC, WCU, and FU to go.
ETSU – A team dealing with a ton of injuries.
Wofford – full rebuild mode in Spartanburg.
The Citadel - Things are not well in the low country.

[FUBeAR]

Western Carolina 41 – they beat the Bears by multiple scores.
1 TD w/missed XP, 11 FG’s, and 1 Safety?

Seems like a lot of FG’s.

[wcugrad95]

I'd take it :)

[FUBeAR]

I'd take it :)
Gotta stop the run in order to get 12 possessions

FUR - Rushing


Att.
Net
TD
Lg.
Avg.


48
334
2
54
7.0



Also…gotta move the ball & score…

SoCon Total Defense Rankings


Index
Team
G
RUSH
PASS
PLAYS
YDS
AVG/P
TD
AVG/G


1
Mercer (https://soconsports.com/teamstats.aspx?path=football&year=2023&school=mercer)
5
506
853
310
1359
4.4
8
271.8


2
Furman (https://soconsports.com/teamstats.aspx?path=football&year=2023&school=furman)
4
318
922
252
1240
4.9
9
310.0



SoCon Scoring Defense Rankings


Index
Team
G
TD
FG
XPT
2XP
DXP
SAF
PTS
AVG/G


1
Furman (https://soconsports.com/teamstats.aspx?path=football&year=2023&school=furman)
4
9
1
7
1
0
0
66
16.5


2
Mercer (https://soconsports.com/teamstats.aspx?path=football&year=2023&school=mercer)
5
8
10
8
0
0
0
86
17.2



Can the WCU Defense hold Mercer under 17 points? They are giving up 29 per game now and Mercer is averaging scoring 24.

[The Cats]

UTC at VMI
ETSU at Furman
Mercer at WCU
The Citadel at Samford


Power Ranking
1. (2) Furman (6-1, 4-0 SoCon)
Next: ETSU (2-5, 1-3 SoCon)

2. (1) Western Carolina (5-2, 3-1SoCon)
Next: Mercer (5-3, 3-2 SoCon)

3. (3) Chattanooga (6-2, 5-1 SoCon)
Next: atVMI(3-4, 2-2 SoCon)

4. (4) Samford (4-4, 3-3 SoCon)
Next: The Citadel (0-7, 0-4 SoCon)

5. (5) Mercer (5-3, 3-2 SoCon)
Next: at Western Carolina (5-2, 3-1SoCon)

6. (7) ETSU (2-5, 1-3 SoCon)
Next: at Furman (6-1, 4-0 SoCon)

7. (6) VMI (3-4, 2-2 SoCon)
Next: Chattanooga (6-2, 5-1 SoCon)

8. (8) The Citadel (0-7, 0-4 SoCon)
Next: at Samford (4-4, 3-3 SoCon)

9. (9) Wofford (0-8, 0-5 SoCon)
Next: Bye

[ElCid]

Looks like we could very well go winless this year. I don't hold out hope in either of the next two weeks. Maybe a chance in the last two games. That would be historic. We have only had one winless season every, in 118 seasons of football, and that was in 1918 during the war. Oh well, records are made to be broken.

[OrangeAndBlack]

* OrangeAndBlack, a Mercer-aligned SoCon picker, was the only non-FU-aligned SoCon picker who correctly picked the Paladins. Interesting, huh?

Furman is so good that I stand by what I said last week -- you pick Furman until they lose. I don't care who they're playing against at this point.

As for the WCU and Mercer game, I know that most or all will pick WCU. This is the moment that Mercer needs to rise up and win a 'big one'. Like FUBear said before, history is the one thing pointing in Mercer's direction. WCU hasn't beat Mercer since 2015? It's been a while!

[garland823]

That would be historic. We have only had one winless season every, in 118 seasons of football, and that was in 1918 during the war.
Must be nice.

[FU_Paladin08]

UTC over VMI
Furman over ETSU
WCU over Mercer
Samford over The Citadel


Rankings:
Furman
Western
Chatty
Mercer
Samford
VMI
ETSU
Woffy
Citadel

[FUBeAR]

Choose wisely, Pickers…

https://twitter.com/mercerfootball/status/1716958676617957558

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR's SoCon Picks & Power Rankings

FUBeAR's Forecast


Away
Home
Time
You Shall See...


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chatt (http://www.gomocs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30P
We will continue to see the Moc's O find out who/what it is after the sad loss of Ford, but he has not looked like himself all year, so they are pretty sure of what the evolved product is going to be. It's hard to play in Lexington and the bird feathers may get a bit ruffled early, but the snakes will slither away from the giant marsupials as the game goes on.

FINAL SCORE: Chattanooga 31 - VMI 17


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
2P
It's HOMECOMING. IT's PLAYERS DAY. AND...as the Paladins are celebrating the 4 consecutive SoCon Championship Teams 1980-83, FUBeAR, part of all 4 of those Teams, as Honorary Captain for the Paladins, is calling the Coin Toss. Should he go for Heads or Tails? Should we add a poll to this thread?

Once that excitement is over, the excitement will all be over.

FINAL SCORE: Furman 49 - ETSU 0


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:30P
Welp - this is the big one this weekend folks. Can WCU recover from the physical beating they took last Saturday? FUBeAR tried to tell 'em not to play Reid last week as he's now reinjured himself and, almost certainly, made it worse.... "Oh no, FUBeAR, it's not even the same injury. Coach Bell said it was a different injury... (to the same hamstring on the same leg) ...y'know...it's really a different injury...because we would have never played him if that previous injury wasn't 100% healed. Just because we viewed that game as the SoCon Championship Game and our mantra the entire season has been "Championship or Bust," we would never have rushed him back into action."

So...anyhoo...WCU is beat up and they are going to be without their best Player (for a while, one would imagine...and one would hope UNTIL he is 100% ready to play). Their O sputtered against the #2 Ranked Defense in the SoCon last week. How do we think they are going to do against the #1 Ranked SoCon Defense this week...as banged up as they are? Better than last week or worse? Y'know how the optometrist does with the 2 lenses..."Better or Worse...Better...Worse" - FUBeAR just doesn't see how WCU can be better. WCU has gotten better at stopping the run (not that we could tell last week), but they have, so Mercer will not be able to run the ball as well as FU did or as well as they would like, but they will be able to run it well enough for the Catamounts to have to put 7 in the box ... and that's Mountain Music to the combo of James, Harper, and Peevy.

FINAL SCORE: Mercer 27 - WCU 17


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_citadel.png?width=30CIT (http://www.citadelsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Sam. (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
3P
In front of 86 Players' Parents, this one goes to the Dogs...

FINAL SCORE: Samford 56 - The Citadel 24



FUBeAR’s First-to-Last

1) Furman - A few more moguls and 1 good-sized jump and our SoCon Paladins TEAM will schuss into the FCS Playoffs as the #1 Seed...maybe #2
2) Mercer - Offense showed enough to see that the 'fix' is in progress, but if the D can continue to sustain its LOCKDOWN, this TEAM is CLEARLY the 2nd best Team in the SoCon and CLEARLY a Playoff Team.
3) Chattanooga - Tough to pick between #3 and #4 - both being very different without their star RB's. Chatt's D and overall TEAM gets the nod. Despite an upcoming, expected loss to FU, this squad should be able to make some noise in the Playoffs
4) WCU - 9th best in FCS and the 4th best in the SoCon - seems about right to FUBeAR. Although their loss this week will take them out of a seed and possibly pit them back against their vanquishers, the Paladins, in Greenville in Round 2 of the Playoffs, it's still been a season to remember. Let's hope the Catamounts don't have to spend another 40 years 'in the desert' before they get to the Playoffs again.
5) Samford - This is still a very good Football TEAM. It's a shame that their upcoming, expected loss to Mercer is going to eliminate the Bulldogs from Playoff consideration because they do belong IN the Playoffs as the SoCon's deserved 5th Team. Maybe they can take it out on UT-Martin for the SoCon brand!
6) VMI - Decent showing against Samford. Enough to keep the Keydets TEAM above the bottom third.
7) ETSU - With WR Huzzie now out and guys heading to the portal, the Bucs' season is scuttled. They'll raise her and attempt drydock repairs in the offseason, but not sure they are really better than the 2 below
8T) The Citadel - FUBeAR's got nuthin'
8T) Wofford - FUBeAR's got nuthin'

[caribbeanhen]

Where is the R of Terror?

[FUBeAR]

Where is the R of Terror?
Still cipherin' up Woffy's 9 win season

[rtzlunar]

FUBeAR’s First-to-Last

1) Furman - A few more moguls and 1 good-sized jump and our SoCon Paladins TEAM will schuss into the FCS Playoffs as the #1 Seed...maybe #2
2) Mercer - Offense showed enough to see that the 'fix' is in progress, but if the D can continue to sustain its LOCKDOWN, this TEAM is CLEARLY the 2nd best Team in the SoCon and CLEARLY a Playoff Team.
3) Chattanooga - Tough to pick between #3 and #4 - both being very different without their star RB's. Chatt's D and overall TEAM gets the nod. Despite an upcoming, expected loss to FU, this squad should be able to make some noise in the Playoffs
4) WCU - 9th best in FCS and the 4th best in the SoCon - seems about right to FUBeAR. Although their loss this week will take them out of a seed and possibly pit them back against their vanquishers, the Paladins, in Greenville in Round 2 of the Playoffs, it's still been a season to remember. Let's hope the Catamounts don't have to spend another 40 years 'in the desert' before they get to the Playoffs again.


I think you should have Mercer #1.

You have Mercer ranked ahead of Chattanooga despite a 12-point home loss to them.

You have Chattanooga ranked ahead of Western even though Western won in Chattanooga.

So clearly Mercer should be ranked ahead of Furman since Furman beat them based on your other rankings. Makes perfect sense.

😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[FUBeAR]

You have Mercer ranked ahead of Chattanooga despite a 12-point home loss to them.

You have Chattanooga ranked ahead of Western even though Western won in Chattanooga.
You have an amazing ability to observe and restate obvious information.

At this point in the season, it's about overall body of work (not picking out, say that Mercer beat North Alabama by double digits and that Chatt lost to North Alabama by double digits) and current status of each Team. Those sort of snapshots, standing alone, matter until we get more data, as we have now and we see how Teams evolve. Players get hurt over a season and that changes Teams. If Ford doesn't plays against Mercer, Chatt only rushes for 2.0 ypc ... maybe that changes the game.

If you want to do your rankings by copying and pasting the current SoCon standings, knock yourself out.

[wcugrad95]

I will say Ford has been hurt for weeks. He didn’t look right as far back as the Wofford game. So personally I hate it for him but I don’t think him playing or not against Mercer would have made a difference in the Moc’s double-digit win. His 9 carries would have been split-up between Appleberry and others, and you could argue if his runs were successful they might have been more successful by a guy who is healthy.

I do like your ambitious thoughts of 4 SOCON teams in, but in your post you show Chattanooga loosing to FU (and I would assume Alabama). Do you think a 7-win team gets in?

I’ll also agree the Mercer vs WCU game is very big. WCU is presumably in win or lose with the rankings that came out, but Mercer needs to win ‘em all to get in. Or at least I’d think Chatty has a better shot at 7-4 than Mercer does since the Mocs have been ranked much of the year. So the Bears probably need to get to 8 and they can’t with a loss tomorrow.

[FUBeAR]

Ford has been hurt. I don’t think him playing or not against Mercer would have made a difference. His carries would have been split-up, and you could argue his runs might have been more successful by a guy...

I do like your ambitious thoughts of 4 SOCON teams in, but in your post you show Chattanooga loosing to FU (and I would assume Alabama). Do you think a 7-win team gets in?

I’ll also agree the Mercer vs WCU game is very big. WCU is presumably in win or lose with the rankings that came out, but Mercer needs to win ‘em all to get in…the Bears probably need to get to 8

Ford avg’d double the ypc against Mercer that the rest of the Team did without him. In a game of inches - that’s what a game where the entire scoring differential is provided solely by Field Goals can accurately be called - double ypc’s matter. Ford picked up 1st Downs on 1/3 of his rushes against Mercer, which represented 3/4’s of the 1st downs Chatt was able to manage on the ground.

Sure, if you want to belittle the significant contribution to a Chattanooga victory that was achieved by one of the great RB’s in SoCon history, go ahead. If you think any random Moc would have outperformed one of their all-time greats, you can besmirch his legacy all you want. FUBeAR won’t do that and won’t try to diminish those gutsy contributions made by such a warrior. FUBeAR knows that Ailym Ford made a HUGE difference for the Mocs every time he suited up. That Saturday against Mercer was no exception.

FUBeAR’s FCS Football theology can be defined as “Committee Epiphanyism.” He believes that one day the Playoff Selection Committee will see the light and have the truth revealed to them that the SoCon is better than the Big Sky. Perhaps that epiphany will come on or before November 19th and they will absolve the Mocs for their transgression at North Alabama, leaving them @ 6-3 with losses against Playoff Teams and a win over Playoff-quality Samford and FBS Lite KSU-A (as opposed to KSU-B…that lost to TTU and ChuckSouth).

Yes - Mercer @ WCU is a “must-have” for Mercer and a “nice-to-have” for WCU…and that may make all the difference.

[walliver]

I’m happy Wofford will not lose this weekend. Our D will hold BYE scoreless. Now if we can just get a field goal.

I haven’t posted much this year, not just because of a dismal season, but sometimes life gets in the way of football. I still plan to attend the last 2 home games. Hopefully there will be a defibrillator in house for FUBear when we beat Furman 😄

[Sir William]

I picked Western over Mercer earlier in this thread, based purely on what I've seen and the fact that the game is in Cullowhee (which doesn't necessarily mean a thing). The more I have thought about it throughout the week, the more I'm tempted to pick Mercer over Western because of the urgency and "gotta have" mindset that should be on the Bears.

Here's the truth, however...
For years, Mercer has been touted over and over as a SoCon up-and-coming power, and occasionally a favorite; yet the Bears have never sniffed a SoCon championship or even made the playoffs as a SoCon at-large. It has always - always! - been coulda, woulda, shoulda for the orange and black. The outcome of this game against Western (especially in Cronic's fourth season) may very well serve as a true benchmark of what Mercer football is really made. Namely, can the Bears win a big game when it really counts?

That said, I'm pulling for Mercer in this one; but it's high time for the Bears to start walking the talk. I hope they do so this Saturday.

[wcugrad95]

Over-exaggerate muchFUBeAR???

I’d expect no Moc fan would have a huge disagreement with my post. Ford had 9 carries for 38 yards, and two of them went for 15 yards each - meaning he averaged just over 1 YPC in the other 7. He had no carries on their first drive where they kicked a FG. He had no carries in their 3rd drive where they kicked their second FG. He had 1 catch for 3 yards in their 6th drive that gave them a 3rd FG. He did have 2 good runs (for first downs) in their next drive that led to a 4th FG. On their TD drive he had 1 rush for 0 yards (Mocs now up 19-7). Doesn’t look like he had another carry after that drive.

Historically Ford is an all-timer, but being injured means he was not the typical RB he has been. I’d ask any of the Moc fans to weigh-in if Ford was the difference, or if maybe only giving up 10 points, 280 total yards, and 0 rushing yards were bigger factors in the game.

I absolutely hate it for guys like Ford and now Huzzie at ETSU. Ford has been a difference-maker nearly his entire career. But for the last couple of weeks it is clear he is not the same guy (now for clear and obvious reasons) and it is the Appleberry show the rest of the way.

[kdinva]

WCU 27; Mercer 23
Samford 48, The Citadel 14
Furman 45; ETSU 10
UTC 28; VMI 17

[FUBeAR]

Over-exaggerate muchFUBeAR???

Ford injured means he was not the RB he has been.
Jeez - why do you hate Ailym Ford so bad?

Devalue much? … is the question you should be asking yourself.

FORD WAS TWICE AS EFFECTIVE AS THE REST OF THE MOCS BALLCARRIERS IN THEIR GAME WITH MERCER. All of your words cannot change that fact.

FUBeAR don’t care what anyone opines. The facts are the facts and the fact is…FORD WAS TWICE AS EFFECTIVE AS THE REST OF THE MOCS BALLCARRIERS IN THEIR GAME WITH MERCER.

If he doesn’t play, that game could’ve gone very differently.

To deny that is to take away what he has meant to Chattanooga Football over the past several years. FUBeAR would certainly hope no Mocs fan would trash Ford’s legacy as you are.

[FUBeAR]

Here's the truth...
…the Bears have never sniffed a SoCon championship



Qtr
Time
Scoring Play
MER
ETSU


4th
09:22
ETSU - Tyler Keltner 41 yd field goal 6 plays, 9 yards, TOP 3:25
35
31


4th
01:47
ETSU - Malik Murray 13 yd pass from Tyler Riddell (Tyler Keltner kick) 6 plays, 35 yards, TOP 3:12
35
38



Hmmmm….Standing on the Mercer sidelines in this de facto SoCon Championship game up in Johnson City in 2021, FUBeAR sure was getting a STRONG whiff of a Mercer Football SoCon Championship with 1:48 seconds to play.

Never won? Correct.
Never “sniffed?” HARDLY!

[Sir William]

Ok, maybe a little sniff xpeacex. But you get what I'm saying. This Saturday looms large.

[ElCid]

Ok, maybe a little sniff xpeacex. But you get what I'm saying. This Saturday looms large.

I think they blow it again.

Yeah, I'm just saying it to get a rise out the FUBeAR.

[FU_Paladin08]

At this point I’m rooting for Western just to see how Mercer keeps that #2 ranking next week. Maybe more interestingly will be how Western will inevitably fall further in the FuBear rankings. After a riveting FU/WCU thread last week I’m just happy for some fresh content!

[OrangeAndBlack]

GG to Western Carolina. But they still haven't beat Mercer since 2015 (Great stat by FUBear!)

Side note: WCU coach is a clown. He was out on the field after every play. Finally got flagged late in the 4th.

[BearDownMU]

I totally understand why Bob Hoffman made people crazy. Bell is MF'ing someone every single time the camera is on him. Gracious.

That said, I am very impressed with the WCU players. Pretty much every possible thing that could have gone wrong for them did and they never let up. Lotta fight in those dogs.. errr... Cats. :)

[Mocs123]

Interesting day in the SoCon today.....Furman and Chattanooga struggling with opponents they probably shouldn't have and WCU falling at Mercer.

[wcugrad95]

That Mercer v WCU game. I mean Western couldn’t have done any more to give the Bears the game. Both teams are 5-3 and IMO should both be ranked. But man - Western with 6 TOs and 3 leading directly to 21 Bear points was hard to watch.

WCU didn’t even pretend like we were going to run the football. We are a decent to good football team without Reid, but the last 2 weeks have been a bit brutal on O.

[The Cats]

I guess there is one team that Mercer really gets up for each year, and it seems to be Western. While we did all we could to help them win, they played well, and and made the plays they needed to make to win. Congrats to the Bears, that's 8 in a row over the Cats. At least it wasn't a complete beatdown like last year in Macon.... But, 5 turnovers will cost you most games.

The Cats are just not the same team without Reid. I don't know if we would have won if Reid played and was 100%, but you have to play with what you got, and the last two weeks, we didn't "got" Reid.

[Mocs123]

Any word on when Reid might return? Will he be back in time for the playoffs?

[The Cats]

Any word on when Reid might return? Will he be back in time for the playoffs?

If he's not back soon, I don't see the playoffs in our picture... with the way today's SoCon games went, both VMI & ETSU have the potential for wins over the Cats. Two weeks ago, that was unthinkable...

But to answer your question, we have no idea, I'm guessing he's out the next two weeks...

[wcugrad95]

Reid seems like he is definitely out at least next week if not 2 more weeks. WCU only attempted 19 total rushes, and at least a few of those were Gonzalez scrambling - meaning we only called about 15 total run plays. Adams is a capable back - he was averaging over 5 YPC in the first half. But we didn’t even act like we would run the ball after halftime.

Reid is a difference-maker, but WCU will have to at least make teams think we could hand the ball off from time to time in these next 3. Reid coming back has a lot to do with what Western does in the next 2 games. Lose one and I’d shut him down for the season. We are honestly a year away from where I thought we would be (some of our absolute best players are SOs this season).

[Sir William]

Way to go, Bears!

[kdinva]

Interesting day in the SoCon today.....Furman and Chattanooga struggling with opponents they probably shouldn't have and WCU falling at Mercer.

VMI's last two games, Keydets in 2nd half has allowed a total of one field goal (UTC today, shut out Sammy last week), and offense today should have scored more and won the game outright. Kicker missed 4 points, Ironside throws an INT into the end zone right in the gut of the UTC Def. back.

Keydets led most of the stats, except the one that matters. 26 first downs, 440 total yards (Season high), plus-12 in TOP....and VMI was without their #1 and #3 receivers. Hunter Rice with the first 200 yard rushing game since Alex Ramsey

[wcugrad95]

It was almost a disastrous trap-weekend for the SOCON.

[Milktruck74]

Going into October a few years back, I think it was Gene Henley (Mocs awesome beatwriter for the CTFP) I heard say, "We know what is suppose to happen but the SoCon is gonna SoCon!) Well Yesterday, was almost the SoCon-est day of SoCon-est days. We all knew what the outcome of the games should have been...and 3 of the 4 ended up that way, albeit quite the nailbiter!!!!

Anyway, I'll put this in here...but with the understanding that there is plenty of SoConing left to SoCon (except the Mocs, which will be completely done SoConing 2 weeks before everyone else in the SoCon....Stupid Scheduling!!!!)

Anyway, here is a take on the playoffs using Mr. Massey's ideas.

Barely getting by VMI didn't really hurt in the Massey Algorithm. Going into yesterday, Massey had the Mocs at 54% vs Furple with a score of 27-24. Today it is 53% with a 26-24 victory (i'd gladly accept either). I guess if Furman was able to actually hang some points on ETSU, the algorithm may have swung further in their favor. So, here is what Mr. Massey Says for the top half of the SoCon for the rest of the season.

Mocs finish 7-1 with a SoCon Championship and one loss to WCU (Mocs get the head to head tiebreaker)
Furple is in sole possession of 2nd with one loss to UTC
Mercer in 3rd at 6-2 with losses to #1 and #2 (with the 3rd place tie breaker being a head to head over Western)
Western in 4th at 6-2 with losses to #2 and #3

If the Mocs win on 11/4 they let the rest of the SoCon sort itself out.

However, if the Mocs don't win on Saturday, it'll be difficult for the committee to figure things out....

Furman will probably be 8-0 (obviously the AQ)

and Mocs at 6-2 along with Mercer and Western. each 1-1 amongst the others....So, I think the committee has to let in at least 2 teams from the SoCon. The Conference probably deserve 3....4 is a big stretch....

The big question is, who eats Thanksgiving dinner at home?

[FUBeAR]

Going into October a few years back, I think it was Gene Henley (Mocs awesome beatwriter for the CTFP) I heard say, "We know what is suppose to happen but the SoCon is gonna SoCon!) Well Yesterday, was almost the SoCon-est day of SoCon-est days. We all knew what the outcome of the games should have been...and 3 of the 4 ended up that way, albeit quite the nailbiter!!!!

Anyway, I'll put this in here...but with the understanding that there is plenty of SoConing left to SoCon (except the Mocs, which will be completely done SoConing 2 weeks before everyone else in the SoCon....Stupid Scheduling!!!!)

Anyway, here is a take on the playoffs using Mr. Massey's ideas.

Barely getting by VMI didn't really hurt in the Massey Algorithm. Going into yesterday, Massey had the Mocs at 54% vs Furple with a score of 27-24. Today it is 53% with a 26-24 victory (i'd gladly accept either). I guess if Furman was able to actually hang some points on ETSU, the algorithm may have swung further in their favor. So, here is what Mr. Massey Says for the top half of the SoCon for the rest of the season.

Mocs finish 7-1 with a SoCon Championship and one loss to WCU (Mocs get the head to head tiebreaker)
Furple is in sole possession of 2nd with one loss to UTC
Mercer in 3rd at 6-2 with losses to #1 and #2 (with the 3rd place tie breaker being a head to head over Western)
Western in 4th at 6-2 with losses to #2 and #3

If the Mocs win on 11/4 they let the rest of the SoCon sort itself out.

However, if the Mocs don't win on Saturday, it'll be difficult for the committee to figure things out....

Furman will probably be 8-0 (obviously the AQ)

and Mocs at 6-2 along with Mercer and Western. each 1-1 amongst the others....So, I think the committee has to let in at least 2 teams from the SoCon. The Conference probably deserve 3....4 is a big stretch....

The big question is, who eats Thanksgiving dinner at home?
In the unlikely event that Furman loses to the TrainSnakeBirds this coming Saturday, the Paladins would only “be in sole possession of 2nd” (by 1/2 game) until the Paladins play Wofford the following Saturday. Then, in the likely event that Furman defeats the 0-9 or 1-8 Terriers, Furman and Chattanooga would be SoCon Co-Champions with equal 7-1 Conference Records. The SoftLeatherShodNativeAmericans would get the AutoBid due to the unlikely hypothetical stated above.

Back to likely events…
FU beats UTC & Woffy
Mercer beats CIT and Sam.
WCU beats Woffy, ETSU, and VMI
UTC loses to Bama

FU 10-1 / 8-0
Mercer 8-3 / 6-2
WCU 8-3 / 6-2
Chatt 7-4 / 6-2

FU in with top 4 seed, perhaps Top 2
Mercer and WCU in, unseeded and 1 of them prolly going to FU in Round 2
Chatt out - although the Mocs SHOULD BE IN

That’s how FUBeAR sees it. Mercer over Samford is the most tenuous of those likely events, IFBO.

[The Cats]

Going into October a few years back, I think it was Gene Henley (Mocs awesome beatwriter for the CTFP) I heard say, "We know what is suppose to happen but the SoCon is gonna SoCon!) Well Yesterday, was almost the SoCon-est day of SoCon-est days. We all knew what the outcome of the games should have been...and 3 of the 4 ended up that way, albeit quite the nailbiter!!!!

Anyway, I'll put this in here...but with the understanding that there is plenty of SoConing left to SoCon (except the Mocs, which will be completely done SoConing 2 weeks before everyone else in the SoCon....Stupid Scheduling!!!!)

Anyway, here is a take on the playoffs using Mr. Massey's ideas.

Barely getting by VMI didn't really hurt in the Massey Algorithm. Going into yesterday, Massey had the Mocs at 54% vs Furple with a score of 27-24. Today it is 53% with a 26-24 victory (i'd gladly accept either). I guess if Furman was able to actually hang some points on ETSU, the algorithm may have swung further in their favor. So, here is what Mr. Massey Says for the top half of the SoCon for the rest of the season.

Mocs finish 7-1 with a SoCon Championship and one loss to WCU (Mocs get the head to head tiebreaker)
Furple is in sole possession of 2nd with one loss to UTC
Mercer in 3rd at 6-2 with losses to #1 and #2 (with the 3rd place tie breaker being a head to head over Western)
Western in 4th at 6-2 with losses to #2 and #3

If the Mocs win on 11/4 they let the rest of the SoCon sort itself out.

However, if the Mocs don't win on Saturday, it'll be difficult for the committee to figure things out....

Furman will probably be 8-0 (obviously the AQ)

and Mocs at 6-2 along with Mercer and Western. each 1-1 amongst the others....So, I think the committee has to let in at least 2 teams from the SoCon. The Conference probably deserve 3....4 is a big stretch....

The big question is, who eats Thanksgiving dinner at home?

"Gene Henley", it's that the same guy who posted on Twitter last week that "mathematically" Furman and Chattanooga were tied for first place? I don't put a lot of credence in what folks write, that think like that....

[Gene Henley]

"Gene Henley", it's that the same guy who posted on Twitter last week that "mathematically" Furman and Chattanooga were tied for first place? I don't put a lot of credence in what folks write, that think like that....

It's because it's true.

And they're still tied in the standings, because UTC has played two more games than Furman and has one more win and one more loss.

That's all I was saying. I didn't realize it was a controversial statement.

[The Cats]

It's because it's true.

And they're still tied in the standings, because UTC has played two more games than Furman and has one more win and one more loss.

That's all I was saying. I didn't realize it was a controversial statement.

Did you learn math at Chattanooga?

Football standings are not computed like that. Only in your mind and that of Chattanooga fans are Furman and Chattanooga tied for first place in the SoCon standings...

[Gene Henley]

Did you learn math at Chattanooga?

Football standings are not computed like that. Only in your mind and that of Chattanooga fans are Furman and Chattanooga tied for first place in the SoCon standings...

You can't question my math skills and say "football standings are not computed like that," basically admitting I was right in how I came to my conclusion but also telling me I've applied it to the wrong sport (which is completely possible as I'm a basketball guy).

In my mind I couldn't care less because it takes care of itself on the field.

I have no issue admitting I've probably applied it to the wrong sport. But I'd say the same thing if it were Western Carolina and Furman in the same spot, so it's not a UTC thing to me.

[The Cats]

You can't question my math skills and say "football standings are not computed like that," basically admitting I was right in how I came to my conclusion but also telling me I've applied it to the wrong sport (which is completely possible as I'm a basketball guy).

In my mind I couldn't care less because it takes care of itself on the field.

I have no issue admitting I've probably applied it to the wrong sport. But I'd say the same thing if it were Western Carolina and Furman in the same spot, so it's not a UTC thing to me.

Nice try at confusing the issue, still does not make it right.

Only in your mind is Furman and Chattanooga tied for first place. Has nothing to do with Western Carolina.

I'd say the same thing if Western's record was what the Moc's record is now, and you said Furman and Western Carolina is tied for 1st place.


PS: you are the one that brought up mathematics in you original Twitter post... that's the only reason I brought it up here...

[Gene Henley]

Nice try at confusing the issue, still does not make it right.

Only in your mind is Furman and Chattanooga tied for first place. Has nothing to do with Western Carolina.

I'd say the same thing if Western's record was what the Moc's record is now, and you said Furman and Western Carolina is tied for 1st place.


PS: you are the one that brought up mathematics in you original Twitter post... that's the only reason I brought it up here...

I'm not confusing the issue because it's not an issue.

In virtually every other sport they'd be considered "tied" at the moment. They would be considered "co-champions" if the season ended today, and I would assume Furman would get the automatic bid because of winning %.

But again, I'm admitting that the math I'm using (basing things simply on standings) may not work in football. Not trying to be snarky as again, it's really not that big of a deal to me.

[ElCid]

It's because it's true.

And they're still tied in the standings, because UTC has played two more games than Furman and has one more win and one more loss.

That's all I was saying. I didn't realize it was a controversial statement.

It's not true. Are you on drugs? Furman is 5-0 in conf. Chatty is 6-1. Tied? In what world? Furman is in lead with zero loses. Nothing you can say or spin will change that. It's basic knowledge stuff. Kind of like, everyone knows that Furman sucks. Of course that is "right now." We will see. Maybe you don't understand that conf standing only take conf games into account. 1.000 beats 0.857 every time. Lol.

[wcugrad95]

If Chatty was 6-0-1 and Furman was 5-0 and for some reason the season ended today, then we might have some math discussions to have given neither team would have lost a conference game. But even then Furman would still be the auto-bid and champs because their winning percentage would be 1.000 as ElCid points out. The SOCON actually had a math decision back in the 1983 season when Furman won the championship and auto-bid at 6-0-1 and WCU finished second at 5-0-1 because of a weird scheduling deal. The teams tied each other in the regular season, but 6 wins in 7 games (.857) is better than 5 wins in 6 games (.833).

Today, the official SOCON standings directly from the league site are:

2023 Football Standings
SCHOOL
CONF
CPCT.
CONF. HOME
CONF. AWAY
CONF. STREAK
OVERALL
PCT.
HOME
AWAY
STREAK


Furman (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=furman)
5-0
1.000
3-0
2-0
W5
7-1
.875
4-0
3-1
W6


Chattanooga (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=utc)
6-1
.857
2-1
4-0
W3
7-2
.778
3-1
4-1
W3


Mercer (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=mercer)
4-2
.667
2-1
2-1
W2
6-3
.667
3-1
2-2
W2


Western Carolina (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=wcu)
3-2
.600
1-2
2-0
L2
5-3
.625
2-2
3-1
L2


Samford (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=samford)
4-3
.571
2-2
2-1
W2
5-4
.556
3-2
2-2
W2


VMI (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=vmi)
2-3
.400
1-2
1-1
L2
3-5
.375
2-2
1-3
L2


East Tennessee State University (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=etsu)
1-4
.200
1-1
0-3
L2
2-6
.250
2-1
0-5
L2


The Citadel (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=citadel)
0-5
.000
0-2
0-3
L5
0-8
.000
0-3
0-5
L8


Wofford (http://soconsports.com/index.aspx?path=wofford)
0-5
.000
0-2
0-3
L5
0-8
.000
0-3
0-5
L8

[FUBeAR]

They would be considered "co-champions" if the season ended today
https://media.tenor.com/eVB-dDVSi4QAAAAC/nope-head-shake.gif

https://static.soconsports.com/custompages/socon/championships/tie-breaking/tie-breaking_procedures_football.pdf

Football
Championship Determination Tie-breaking Procedures: The Southern Conference champion shall be the team that finishes with the best won-loss percentage in Conference games during the regular season. In the case that two or more schools finish with identical won-loss records, they shall be declared co-champions.

Furman’s won-loss percentage in Conference games is 1.000.
Chattanooga’s won-loss percentage in conference games is 0.857.

0.857 is the 2nd best won-loss percentage in conference games in the regular season.

1.000 > 0.857.

That makes Furman the team with the best won-loss percentage in Conference games during the regular season (so far).

Furman and Chattanooga do not have identical won-loss records, so they would not be declared co-champions

Thus, Furman would be the outright Southern Conference champion “if the season ended today.”


https://youtu.be/S_TYom5_gDk?feature=shared

[FUBeAR]

This video is somewhat funny, but most importantly, our SoCon Chattanooga Mocs are prominently featured. And, most relevant to recent posts in this thread, the writer(s) of the script for this video is a graduate of the Gene Henley School of Football Standings Communications (you’ll see).


https://youtu.be/6v_LvQEyXnk?feature=shared

BTW - If FUBeAR had been a Co-writer, the Mocs character woulda told ‘em his Conference is the Daddy of theirs and that they could just start calling him “Daddy” going forward.

[The Cats]

It's not true. Are you on drugs? Furman is 5-0 in conf. Chatty is 6-1. Tied? In what world? Furman is in lead with zero loses. Nothing you can say or spin will change that. It's basic knowledge stuff. Kind of like, everyone knows that Furman sucks. Of course that is "right now." We will see. Maybe you don't understand that conf standing only take conf games into account. 1.000 beats 0.857 every time. Lol.

It's no wonder they like that guy in Chattanooga. He's a bigger homer than fubear. I guess he did learn his "mathematics" at UTC,,,

[FUBeAR]

It's not true. Are you on drugs? Furman is 5-0 in conf. Chatty is 6-1. Tied? In what world? Furman is in lead with zero loses. Nothing you can say or spin will change that. It's basic knowledge stuff. Kind of like, everyone knows that Furman sucks. Of course that is "right now." We will see. Maybe you don't understand that conf standing only take conf games into account. 1.000 beats 0.857 every time. Lol.
The madness is spreading!

Now, the Official UTC Football Website / Press Release is claiming and spreading this lie…

“The standings have the Paladins and Mocs in a virtual tie for first…”

https://twitter.com/gomocs/status/1719643691868909986

[kdinva]

It's not true. Are you on drugs? Furman is 5-0 in conf. Chatty is 6-1. Tied? In what world? Furman is in lead with zero loses. Nothing you can say or spin will change that. It's basic knowledge stuff. Kind of like, everyone knows that Furman sucks. Of course that is "right now." We will see. Maybe you don't understand that conf standing only take conf games into account. 1.000 beats 0.857 every time. Lol.

This will all be settled by 8 PM, Saturday November 18.....

[wcugrad95]

I think the question of if Furman and UTC are currently (or virtually) tied at the top is already settled - math don't lie :)

The other stuff purely from a UTC perspective will be decided on Saturday.

[ElCid]

The madness is spreading!

Now, the Official UTC Football Website / Press Release is claiming and spreading this lie…

“The standings have the Paladins and Mocs in a virtual tie for first…”

https://twitter.com/gomocs/status/1719643691868909986

"Virtual tie?" Like in a virtual reality? Or alternate reality where the laws of math don't apply? Eh, it makes for more drama, that is about it. Gotta love the spin-meisters. You know, like you love yourself?