Week 8 Playoff Prognostication

[Professor Chaos]

Believe it or not Selection Sunday is only 4 weeks away so I spent a couple hours this morning pouring through conference standings, remaining schedules, and the Massey ratings to put together my first playoff prognostication of this season. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
The Big Sky seems pretty top heavy this year - both Montana schools are in unless they implode down the stretch, Idaho is in very good shape as is Sac St. After that things get sketchy... UC Davis can't trip up in these next 3 or they'll end up in the same spot they were last year - needing a win over Sac St in week 12 to avoid 6-5. The last 3 are still alive but seems pretty unlikely any of them can win out which they'd probably all need to do in order to get in. I'm thinking 4 bids for the Big Sky this year with 5 at most but they might get as many as 3 seeds again.

Likely in
Montana St 6-1 (4-0) [2.90/1.10] - @Idaho (59%), NAU (91%), EWU (78%), @Montana (62%)
Montana 6-1 (3-1) [2.67/1.33] - UNC (99%), Sac St (57%), @Portland St (73%), Montana St (38%)

Trending towards in
Idaho 5-2 (3-1) [2.71/1.29] - Montana St (41%), @UNC (93%), @Weber St (51%), Idaho St (86%)
Sac St 5-2 (2-2) [2.77/1.23] - Idaho St (85%), @Montana (43%), Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (52%)

Work left to do
UC Davis 4-3 (2-2) [2.67/1.33] - @NAU (69%), Portland St (75%), @Idaho St (75%), Sac St (48%)
EWU 3-4 (2-2) [2.44/1.56] - @Portland St (59%), Cal Poly (92%), @Montana st (22%), NAU (71%)
Portland St 3-4 (2-2) [1.64/2.36] - EWU (41%), @UC Davis (25%), Montana (27%), @UNC (71%)
Idaho St 3-4 (3-1) [0.74/3.26] - @Sac St (15%), Weber St (20%), UC Davis (25%), @Idaho (14%)


CAA
Much like last year the CAA is a mess at this point but will probably sort itself out by Selection Sunday. Unlike last year it seems like most of these teams will end up on the outside looking in whereas last year a lot of CAA bubble teams made it in. Only Delaware can be feeling all that comfortable. If Nova can take care of business at home they should be in also and Albany probably just needs to win 2 of 4 in order to get in. After that there's very little margin for error among this group. I think UNH and maybe William & Mary are about the only teams who could take another loss and still have a chance if they win out. Richmond is probably out at 7-4 and everyone else would absolutely need to win out (their FCS games) to get in. I'm thinking the CAA is going to cannibalize itself down to 3-4 bids but they will undoubtedly have multiple teams on the bubble so we'll see.

Likely in
Delaware 6-1 (4-0) [2.79/1.21] - @Towson (73%), Elon (76%), @Campbell (70%), Nova (61%)

Trending towards in
Villanova 5-2 (3-1) [2.67/1.33] - SBU (97%), @UNH (51%), Towson (79%), @Delaware (39%)
Albany 5-3 (3-1) [2.71/1.29] - @Maine (69%), W&M (54%), @SBU (90%), Monmouth (58%)

Work left to do
William & Mary 4-3 (2-2) [2.67/1.33] - Monmouth (61%), @Albany (46%), @Hamptom (93%), Richmond (67%)
New Hampshire 4-3 (2-2) [2.23/1.77] - @URI (52%), Nova (49%), @Monmouth (48%), Maine (73%)
Richmond 5-3 (4-1) [1.63/1.37] - Campbell (67%), Elon (64%), @W&M (33%)
Elon 4-4 (4-1) [1.55/1.45] - @Delaware (24%), @Richmond (36%), Hampton (94%)
Rhode Island 4-4 (2-3) [1.89/1.11] - UNH (48%), NC A&T (87%), @Towson (54%)
Monmouth 3-4 (2-2) [2.21/1.79] - @W&M (39%), SBU (88%), UNH (52%), @Albany (42%)
Towson 3-4 (2-2) [1.61/2.39] - Delaware (27%), @NC A&T (67%), @Nova (21%), URI (46%)
Campbell 4-3 (3-2) [1.29/2.71] - @Richmond (33%), @UNC (2%), Delaware (30%), @NC A&T (64%)
Hampton 3-4 (1-3) [0.73/3.27] - NC A&T (41%), @Maine (19%), W&M (7%), @Elon (6%)


MVFC
The MVFC is starting to look like the conference that could hoard a ton of playoff bids but it always seems like this conference finds a way to cannibalize itself more than you'd think was possible. SDSU is practically a lock - Massey still doesn't like USD much as he sees them as underdogs in each of their next 3 (2 of which are at home). SIU has a pretty clear path to 7 wins and that FBS win should be enough to get them in if they get there. UND should get back on track in their next 2 and then would just need a split in their last 2 to get in. Massey still like NDSU a lot but I think those last 2 are going to be tougher than the percentages say but they can probably get in just by winning one of their final 3. Even YSU and UNI have manageable paths to 7 wins (YSU especially) but UNI would be have a stronger 7 win resume if it came down to it. Illinois St and Missouri St will likely fall off this list before too long. I think at least 5 bids for the MVFC is very likely with a decent shot at 6 and even 7 is possible (see my projected field).

Likley in
SDSU 7-0 (4-0) [3.35/0.65] - @USD (91%), NDSU (69%), @YSU (81%), Missouri St (93%)

Trending towards in
USD 6-1 (4-0) [1.81/2.19] - SDSU (9%), @SIU (28%), UND (49%), @WIU (95%)
SIU 5-2 (2-2) [2.86/1.14] - @WIU (97%), USD (72%), @NDSU (18%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 4-3 (2-2) [3.06/0.94] - Indiana St (96%, @Murray St (90%), @USD (51%), Illinois St (70%)
NDSU 5-2 (2-2) [2.83/1.17] - Murray St (99%), @SDSU (31%), SIU (82%), @UNI (70%)

Work left do to
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [2.47/1.53] - Missouri St (60%), @Indiana St (86%), SDSU (19%), @Murray St (83%)
UNI 4-3 (3-1) [2.45/1.55] - @Illinois St (60%), WIU (97%), @Missouri St (58%), NDSU (30%)
Illinois St 4-3 (2-2) [2.04/1.96] - UNI (40%), @Missouri St (42%), Murray St (92%), @UND (30%)
Missouri St 3-4 (2-2) [1.47/2.53] - @YSU (40%), Illinois St (58%), UNI (42%), @SDSU (7%)


SOCON
The SOCON is pretty simple right now - Furman is sitting pretty and looking at a high seed if they win out (although Massey has them as an underdog at Chatanooga) and Western Carolina looks to have a pretty workable path to 8 (or even 9) wins. Chattanooga is in a tough spot IMO, if they don't beat Furman at home in a couple weeks they'll probably finish 7-4 with a very nondescript resume so they'd be at the mercy of the bubble. Mercer would really increase their chances at crashing the postseason party if they could pick up a win against WCU this Saturday - that Samford/Mercer game in week 11 could end up being a play-in (or at least a play-out) game. It's possible the SOCON only gets 2 bids again but I'm thinking they're looking more likely at 3 playoff selections as of right now with 4 still a possibility.

Likely in
Furman 6-1 (4-0) [3.28/0.72] - ETSU (90%), @UTC (46%), VMI (99%), @Wofford (93%)

Trending towards in
Western Carolina 5-2 (3-1) [2.92/1.08] - Mercer (57%), @Wofford (77%), ETSU (76%), @VMI (83%)

Work left to do
Chattanooga 6-2 (5-1) [1.49/1.51] - @VMI (95%), Furman (54%), @Bama (~0%)
Mercer 5-3 (3-2) [1.85/1.15] - @WCU (43%), @The Citadel (92%), Samford (50%)
Samford 4-4 (3-3) [1.87/1.13] - The Citadel (93%), @Mercer (50%), UTM (44%)


Patriot
Things are really up in the air in the Patriot after Lafayette's upset of Holy Cross yesterday. Despite that Lafayette is far from feelig comfortable as Massey sees them as an underdog to Fordham in week 11. Fordham and Holy Cross play this Saturday and whoever loses might have their playoff hopes dashed. It's tough to say whether the Patriot could snag an at-large with so much uncertainty around not only how this league will shake out but how the rest of the leagues will shake out but there will likely be a opportunity for the PL to snag an at-large. If it plays out like Massey predicts and Holy Cross beats Fordham who then beats Lafayette it would be a real mess as Holy Cross would likely be conference co-champ (but not the auto) at 7-4 while Fordham would have a better record at 8-3 with an FBS win and I don't think both would make it in that scenario.

Work left to do
Lafayette 6-1 (2-0) [2.83/1.17] - @Georgetown (75%), Colgate (78%), Fordham (47%), @Lehigh (82%)
Holy Cross 4-3 (2-1) [2.75/1.25] - @Fordham (62%), @Lehigh (93%), @Army (25%), Georgetown (95%)
Fordham 5-2 (1-1) [2.48/1.52] - Holy Cross (38%), Bucknell (89%), @Lafayette (53%), @Colgate (69%)


UAC
If things play out the way Massey predicts then APSU may be hosting the de facto conference championship game in week 12 vs UCA although ACU and EKU still have a shot to make some noise. ACU already lost to UCA and doesn't play APSU (or EKU) but EKU has both of the top 2 teams left on their schedule. If both UCA and APSU can get to that last game at 8-2 this could be a 2 bid league - otherwise it'll just be the autobid I think.

Work left to do
Austin Peay 5-2 (3-0) [3.13/0.87] - UNA (93%), @EKU (66%), Utah Tech (89%), UCA (65%)
UCA 5-2 (2-0) [2.60/1.40] - Tarleton St (78%), @UNA (81%), EKU (66%), @APSU (35%)
ACU 4-3 (2-1) [1.92/2.08] - @SUU (45%), Utah Tech (79%), Tarleton St (68%), @Texas A&M (~0%)
EKU 3-4 (2-0) [1.83/2.17] - @Utah Tech (66%), Austin Peay (34%), @UCA (34%), SFA (49%)


OVC/Big South
UTM has the inside track at the auto as they host the other conference co-leader in SEMO in week 11. Even if they drop that one they could still get an at-large assuming they win their other 3. SEMO is in autobid (where they control their own destiny) or bust mode right now. EIU might have a shot at an at-large at 8-3 but would need some help I think. Tennessee St presents another at-large possibilty for the OVC/Big South if they can get to 8-3 or better. There's a slough of 4 loss teams in the this league right now outside of SEMO but it doesn't look like any will be in play for the auto or an at-large IMO. Depending on how tough the bubble is and how these games shake out this league could get anywhere from 1-3 bids - I think 1 or 2 is probably most likely.

Trending towards in
UT Martin 6-1 (3-0) [2.76/1.24] - @G-W (72%), @TTU (93%), SEMO (54%), @Samford (56%)

Work left to do
SEMO 3-4 (3-0) [2.90/1.10] - @Nicholls (64%), RMU (98%), @UTM (46%), @Bryant (82%)
EIU 5-3 (1-2) [2.09/1.91] - @Lindenwood (62%), TSU (63%), @RMU (84%)
Tennessee St 5-2 (1-1) [2.36/1.64] - Lindenwood (66%), @CSU (55%), @EIU (37%), TTU (78%)


Others
This is just the Southland for now where UIW is looking like they'll run the table as they face the other two undefeated teams in league play over the next 2 weeks and are heavy favorites in both but if someone else gets the SLC auto then UIW would probably steal a bid from a bubble team assuming they get to 9-2. We could see some teams from other leagues like the SWAC or MEAC join this group if a team like FAMU or NCCU gets upset and misses out on the Celebration Bowl or if the contending teams in the previous 3 conferences I mentioned get thinned out but for now it's pretty empty.

Likely in
Incarnate Word 6-1 (3-0) [3.49/0.51] - @Lamar (87%), Nicholls (75%), NWSU (95%), @HCU (92%)



The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 4 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Montana (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (10-1), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3),
MVFC: 6 - SDSU (11-0), UND (8-3), NDSU (8-3), SIU (8-3), USD (7-4), UNI (7-4), YSU (7-4)
SOCON: 2 - Furman (9-2), WCU (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3)
Patriot: 1 - Lafayette (9-2), Fordham (8-3)

The other 5 autos:
OVC/Big South: UTM (10-1)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: UIW (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (7-4)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Montana St (10-1)
3. Delaware (10-1)
4. Montana (9-2)
5. Furman (9-2)
6. WCU (9-2)
7. UTM (10-1)
8. UND (8-3)

Last 4 in: UNI (7-4), USD (7-4), Fordham (8-3), YSU (7-4)
First 4 out: UCA (8-3), EIU (8-3), Holy Cross (7-4), UC Davis (7-4)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: TSU (8-3), Mercer (7-4), Richmond (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), ACU (6-5), SEMO (6-5), UNH (6-5), URI (6-5)

The bubble always seems tough forecasting this far out when you don't factor in any upsets so upsets will soften it these last 4 weeks. Call me an MVFC homer if you will for giving them what I believe would be a record 7 playoff bids but if it shakes out like this I just think those 7-4 MVFC teams have better resumes than the 7-4/8-3 teams from the other leagues I have on the outside. It's incredibly unlikely the MVFC gets 7 different 7 win teams anyway.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.

[FUBeAR]

Great stuff. Your SoCon comments seem spot on.

Just a question. If Furman finishes 10-1 with only an FBS P5 SEC loss, and Delaware wins out, does the much easier schedule (missing upper CAA Teams - William & Mary, Albany, and Richmond) of Delaware enable Furman to grab the #3 Seed?

OK - one more query / ask - if you would be so kind - lay out the Seeding for FU if the above happens (assuming you answered “yes” (or as FUBeAR would call it, “correctly”) to FUBeAR’s 1st question) and/or either/both Montana State loses to Montana | SDSU loses to NDSU.

[Professor Chaos]

Great stuff. Your SoCon comments seem spot on.

Just a question. If Furman finishes 10-1 with only an FBS P5 SEC loss, and Delaware wins out, does the much easier schedule (missing upper CAA Teams - William & Mary, Albany, and Richmond) of Delaware enable Furman to grab the #3 Seed?

OK - one more query / ask - if you would be so kind - lay out the Seeding for FU if the above happens (assuming you answered “yes” (or as FUBeAR would call it, “correctly”) to FUBeAR’s 1st question) and/or either/both Montana State loses to Montana | SDSU loses to NDSU.
A lot of unknown variables but if all these teams ended 10-1 (of course it's not possible for both Montana and Montana St to finish 10-1) I think the pecking order for the seeds would be something like: SDSU, Montana St, Montana, Furman, Delaware.

Side note on SDSU - in the field that I projected they would have wins over a whopping 7 playoff teams if they go undefeated... that's just silly. I really think they're 2 losses away from falling out of the top 2 seeds and if they lose one the only team that could plausibly be seeded over them would be Montana St (I know SDSU has the head-to-head but it was a razor thin win at home so it's easy to make the argument Montana St would be better on a neutral field).

[taper]

SDSU is the favorite, but I wouldn't be shocked if USD pulls off the upset at home next week. Very messy if that happens.

[Milktruck74]

Nice Work. Appreciate the effort...Hoping my Mocs figure a way to factor into the equation and be a third SoCon team in...SoCon has been a one trick pony for way too long. if they got three in, I think two of the three could garner wins and make the SoCon a respectable playoff conference again...at some point it becomes a numbers game. If MVFC gets 7 in, they will have advancements.....so, the rich get richer!!!!

[FUBeAR]

Nice Work. Appreciate the effort...Hoping my Mocs figure a way to factor into the equation and be a third SoCon team in...SoCon has been a one trick pony for way too long. if they got three in, I think two of the three could garner wins and make the SoCon a respectable playoff conference again...at some point it becomes a numbers game. If MVFC gets 7 in, they will have advancements.....so, the rich get richer!!!!
# IN
# w/Bye Week Off
#with AND #of Home Game(s)

…makes most of the difference.

[Puddin Tane]

to date-
Nicholls losses- Sac St, TCU, Tulane
Lamar losses -Idaho, South Dakota, and ULM

I think alot of ranked FCS teams would have the same record as these two. (To date!). I just throwing this out there. Who knows how things will end.

I think Uiw slips up somewhere. Dont know where, but strange things happen down here. Their qb missed last game, not sure of his status. I dont think we have the run D to beat em.

Nicholls had a game cancelled. May come back to bite em? Say Nicholls finishes 6-4. With losses to Tcu, Tulane, Sac St and Uiw…

[Houndawg]

Believe it or not Selection Sunday is only 4 weeks away so I spent a couple hours this morning pouring through conference standings, remaining schedules, and the Massey ratings to put together my first playoff prognostication of this season. I broke it down by conference listing the teams in order from where I think (using Massey as a guide) each team sits in terms of easiest path to the playoffs to toughest path within their conference. You can see all of Massey's updated numbers at https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/fcs/ratings. The numbers in brackets behind each team is Massey's expected remaining wins and losses and the percentage in parenthesis behind each remaining game is Massey's percentage that each team wins that respective game.


Big Sky
The Big Sky seems pretty top heavy this year - both Montana schools are in unless they implode down the stretch, Idaho is in very good shape as is Sac St. After that things get sketchy... UC Davis can't trip up in these next 3 or they'll end up in the same spot they were last year - needing a win over Sac St in week 12 to avoid 6-5. The last 3 are still alive but seems pretty unlikely any of them can win out which they'd probably all need to do in order to get in. I'm thinking 4 bids for the Big Sky this year with 5 at most but they might get as many as 3 seeds again.

Likely in
Montana St 6-1 (4-0) [2.90/1.10] - @Idaho (59%), NAU (91%), EWU (78%), @Montana (62%)
Montana 6-1 (3-1) [2.67/1.33] - UNC (99%), Sac St (57%), @Portland St (73%), Montana St (38%)

Trending towards in
Idaho 5-2 (3-1) [2.71/1.29] - Montana St (41%), @UNC (93%), @Weber St (51%), Idaho St (86%)
Sac St 5-2 (2-2) [2.77/1.23] - Idaho St (85%), @Montana (43%), Cal Poly (97%), @UC Davis (52%)

Work left to do
UC Davis 4-3 (2-2) [2.67/1.33] - @NAU (69%), Portland St (75%), @Idaho St (75%), Sac St (48%)
EWU 3-4 (2-2) [2.44/1.56] - @Portland St (59%), Cal Poly (92%), @Montana st (22%), NAU (71%)
Portland St 3-4 (2-2) [1.64/2.36] - EWU (41%), @UC Davis (25%), Montana (27%), @UNC (71%)
Idaho St 3-4 (3-1) [0.74/3.26] - @Sac St (15%), Weber St (20%), UC Davis (25%), @Idaho (14%)


CAA
Much like last year the CAA is a mess at this point but will probably sort itself out by Selection Sunday. Unlike last year it seems like most of these teams will end up on the outside looking in whereas last year a lot of CAA bubble teams made it in. Only Delaware can be feeling all that comfortable. If Nova can take care of business at home they should be in also and Albany probably just needs to win 2 of 4 in order to get in. After that there's very little margin for error among this group. I think UNH and maybe William & Mary are about the only teams who could take another loss and still have a chance if they win out. Richmond is probably out at 7-4 and everyone else would absolutely need to win out (their FCS games) to get in. I'm thinking the CAA is going to cannibalize itself down to 3-4 bids but they will undoubtedly have multiple teams on the bubble so we'll see.

Likely in
Delaware 6-1 (4-0) [2.79/1.21] - @Towson (73%), Elon (76%), @Campbell (70%), Nova (61%)

Trending towards in
Villanova 5-2 (3-1) [2.67/1.33] - SBU (97%), @UNH (51%), Towson (79%), @Delaware (39%)
Albany 5-3 (3-1) [2.71/1.29] - @Maine (69%), W&M (54%), @SBU (90%), Monmouth (58%)

Work left to do
William & Mary 4-3 (2-2) [2.67/1.33] - Monmouth (61%), @Albany (46%), @Hamptom (93%), Richmond (67%)
New Hampshire 4-3 (2-2) [2.23/1.77] - @URI (52%), Nova (49%), @Monmouth (48%), Maine (73%)
Richmond 5-3 (4-1) [1.63/1.37] - Campbell (67%), Elon (64%), @W&M (33%)
Elon 4-4 (4-1) [1.55/1.45] - @Delaware (24%), @Richmond (36%), Hampton (94%)
Rhode Island 4-4 (2-3) [1.89/1.11] - UNH (48%), NC A&T (87%), @Towson (54%)
Monmouth 3-4 (2-2) [2.21/1.79] - @W&M (39%), SBU (88%), UNH (52%), @Albany (42%)
Towson 3-4 (2-2) [1.61/2.39] - Delaware (27%), @NC A&T (67%), @Nova (21%), URI (46%)
Campbell 4-3 (3-2) [1.29/2.71] - @Richmond (33%), @UNC (2%), Delaware (30%), @NC A&T (64%)
Hampton 3-4 (1-3) [0.73/3.27] - NC A&T (41%), @Maine (19%), W&M (7%), @Elon (6%)


MVFC
The MVFC is starting to look like the conference that could hoard a ton of playoff bids but it always seems like this conference finds a way to cannibalize itself more than you'd think was possible. SDSU is practically a lock - Massey still doesn't like USD much as he sees them as underdogs in each of their next 3 (2 of which are at home). SIU has a pretty clear path to 7 wins and that FBS win should be enough to get them in if they get there. UND should get back on track in their next 2 and then would just need a split in their last 2 to get in. Massey still like NDSU a lot but I think those last 2 are going to be tougher than the percentages say but they can probably get in just by winning one of their final 3. Even YSU and UNI have manageable paths to 7 wins (YSU especially) but UNI would be have a stronger 7 win resume if it came down to it. Illinois St and Missouri St will likely fall off this list before too long. I think at least 5 bids for the MVFC is very likely with a decent shot at 6 and even 7 is possible (see my projected field).

Likley in
SDSU 7-0 (4-0) [3.35/0.65] - @USD (91%), NDSU (69%), @YSU (81%), Missouri St (93%)

Trending towards in
USD 6-1 (4-0) [1.81/2.19] - SDSU (9%), @SIU (28%), UND (49%), @WIU (95%)
SIU 5-2 (2-2) [2.86/1.14] - @WIU (97%), USD (72%), @NDSU (18%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 4-3 (2-2) [3.06/0.94] - Indiana St (96%, @Murray St (90%), @USD (51%), Illinois St (70%)
NDSU 5-2 (2-2) [2.83/1.17] - Murray St (99%), @SDSU (31%), SIU (82%), @UNI (70%)

Work left do to
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [2.47/1.53] - Missouri St (60%), @Indiana St (86%), SDSU (19%), @Murray St (83%)
UNI 4-3 (3-1) [2.45/1.55] - @Illinois St (60%), WIU (97%), @Missouri St (58%), NDSU (30%)
Illinois St 4-3 (2-2) [2.04/1.96] - UNI (40%), @Missouri St (42%), Murray St (92%), @UND (30%)
Missouri St 3-4 (2-2) [1.47/2.53] - @YSU (40%), Illinois St (58%), UNI (42%), @SDSU (7%)


SOCON
The SOCON is pretty simple right now - Furman is sitting pretty and looking at a high seed if they win out (although Massey has them as an underdog at Chatanooga) and Western Carolina looks to have a pretty workable path to 8 (or even 9) wins. Chattanooga is in a tough spot IMO, if they don't beat Furman at home in a couple weeks they'll probably finish 7-4 with a very nondescript resume so they'd be at the mercy of the bubble. Mercer would really increase their chances at crashing the postseason party if they could pick up a win against WCU this Saturday - that Samford/Mercer game in week 11 could end up being a play-in (or at least a play-out) game. It's possible the SOCON only gets 2 bids again but I'm thinking they're looking more likely at 3 playoff selections as of right now with 4 still a possibility.

Likely in
Furman 6-1 (4-0) [3.28/0.72] - ETSU (90%), @UTC (46%), VMI (99%), @Wofford (93%)

Trending towards in
Western Carolina 5-2 (3-1) [2.92/1.08] - Mercer (57%), @Wofford (77%), ETSU (76%), @VMI (83%)

Work left to do
Chattanooga 6-2 (5-1) [1.49/1.51] - @VMI (95%), Furman (54%), @Bama (~0%)
Mercer 5-3 (3-2) [1.85/1.15] - @WCU (43%), @The Citadel (92%), Samford (50%)
Samford 4-4 (3-3) [1.87/1.13] - The Citadel (93%), @Mercer (50%), UTM (44%)


Patriot
Things are really up in the air in the Patriot after Lafayette's upset of Holy Cross yesterday. Despite that Lafayette is far from feelig comfortable as Massey sees them as an underdog to Fordham in week 11. Fordham and Holy Cross play this Saturday and whoever loses might have their playoff hopes dashed. It's tough to say whether the Patriot could snag an at-large with so much uncertainty around not only how this league will shake out but how the rest of the leagues will shake out but there will likely be a opportunity for the PL to snag an at-large. If it plays out like Massey predicts and Holy Cross beats Fordham who then beats Lafayette it would be a real mess as Holy Cross would likely be conference co-champ (but not the auto) at 7-4 while Fordham would have a better record at 8-3 with an FBS win and I don't think both would make it in that scenario.

Work left to do
Lafayette 6-1 (2-0) [2.83/1.17] - @Georgetown (75%), Colgate (78%), Fordham (47%), @Lehigh (82%)
Holy Cross 4-3 (2-1) [2.75/1.25] - @Fordham (62%), @Lehigh (93%), @Army (25%), Georgetown (95%)
Fordham 5-2 (1-1) [2.48/1.52] - Holy Cross (38%), Bucknell (89%), @Lafayette (53%), @Colgate (69%)


UAC
If things play out the way Massey predicts then APSU may be hosting the de facto conference championship game in week 12 vs UCA although ACU and EKU still have a shot to make some noise. ACU already lost to UCA and doesn't play APSU (or EKU) but EKU has both of the top 2 teams left on their schedule. If both UCA and APSU can get to that last game at 8-2 this could be a 2 bid league - otherwise it'll just be the autobid I think.

Work left to do
Austin Peay 5-2 (3-0) [3.13/0.87] - UNA (93%), @EKU (66%), Utah Tech (89%), UCA (65%)
UCA 5-2 (2-0) [2.60/1.40] - Tarleton St (78%), @UNA (81%), EKU (66%), @APSU (35%)
ACU 4-3 (2-1) [1.92/2.08] - @SUU (45%), Utah Tech (79%), Tarleton St (68%), @Texas A&M (~0%)
EKU 3-4 (2-0) [1.83/2.17] - @Utah Tech (66%), Austin Peay (34%), @UCA (34%), SFA (49%)


OVC/Big South
UTM has the inside track at the auto as they host the other conference co-leader in SEMO in week 11. Even if they drop that one they could still get an at-large assuming they win their other 3. SEMO is in autobid (where they control their own destiny) or bust mode right now. EIU might have a shot at an at-large at 8-3 but would need some help I think. Tennessee St presents another at-large possibilty for the OVC/Big South if they can get to 8-3 or better. There's a slough of 4 loss teams in the this league right now outside of SEMO but it doesn't look like any will be in play for the auto or an at-large IMO. Depending on how tough the bubble is and how these games shake out this league could get anywhere from 1-3 bids - I think 1 or 2 is probably most likely.

Trending towards in
UT Martin 6-1 (3-0) [2.76/1.24] - @G-W (72%), @TTU (93%), SEMO (54%), @Samford (56%)

Work left to do
SEMO 3-4 (3-0) [2.90/1.10] - @Nicholls (64%), RMU (98%), @UTM (46%), @Bryant (82%)
EIU 5-3 (1-2) [2.09/1.91] - @Lindenwood (62%), TSU (63%), @RMU (84%)
Tennessee St 5-2 (1-1) [2.36/1.64] - Lindenwood (66%), @CSU (55%), @EIU (37%), TTU (78%)


Others
This is just the Southland for now where UIW is looking like they'll run the table as they face the other two undefeated teams in league play over the next 2 weeks and are heavy favorites in both but if someone else gets the SLC auto then UIW would probably steal a bid from a bubble team assuming they get to 9-2. We could see some teams from other leagues like the SWAC or MEAC join this group if a team like FAMU or NCCU gets upset and misses out on the Celebration Bowl or if the contending teams in the previous 3 conferences I mentioned get thinned out but for now it's pretty empty.

Likely in
Incarnate Word 6-1 (3-0) [3.49/0.51] - @Lamar (87%), Nicholls (75%), NWSU (95%), @HCU (92%)



The Field

So there's 14 at-large available (1 more than last year with the Big South and OVC merging) - this is where I see them landing if things go to plan based on Massey odds over the last 4 weeks (which of course they won't) - the lists includes the autos so there's one additional team for each conference on top of the at-larges:
Big Sky: 3 - Montana St (10-1), Montana (9-2), Idaho (8-3), Sac St (8-3)
CAA: 2 - Delaware (10-1), Albany (9-3), Villanova (8-3),
MVFC: 6 - SDSU (11-0), UND (8-3), NDSU (8-3), SIU (8-3), USD (7-4), UNI (7-4), YSU (7-4)
SOCON: 2 - Furman (9-2), WCU (9-2), Chattanooga (8-3)
Patriot: 1 - Lafayette (9-2), Fordham (8-3)

The other 5 autos:
OVC/Big South: UTM (10-1)
UAC: APSU (9-2)
SLC: UIW (10-1)
NEC: Duquesne (7-4)
Pioneer: Davidson (9-2)

The seeds
1. SDSU (11-0)
2. Montana St (10-1)
3. Delaware (10-1)
4. Montana (9-2)
5. Furman (9-2)
6. WCU (9-2)
7. UTM (10-1)
8. UND (8-3)

Last 4 in: UNI (7-4), USD (7-4), Fordham (8-3), YSU (7-4)
First 4 out: UCA (8-3), EIU (8-3), Holy Cross (7-4), UC Davis (7-4)

Others on the outside looking in amongst the teams I've listed above: TSU (8-3), Mercer (7-4), Richmond (7-4), William & Mary (7-4), ACU (6-5), SEMO (6-5), UNH (6-5), URI (6-5)

The bubble always seems tough forecasting this far out when you don't factor in any upsets so upsets will soften it these last 4 weeks. Call me an MVFC homer if you will for giving them what I believe would be a record 7 playoff bids but if it shakes out like this I just think those 7-4 MVFC teams have better resumes than the 7-4/8-3 teams from the other leagues I have on the outside. It's incredibly unlikely the MVFC gets 7 different 7 win teams anyway.

What do you think? Feel free to throw out your projection - it's kind of a fun exercise IMO.


Looking from the perspective of a Saluki homer my immediate response is why an 8-3 UND would get the 8 seed over an 8-3 SIU - they don't play each other, have similar SOS and SIU has an FBS win. Not that the 8 seed is a great prize, just wondering. And of course the last thing that would happen would be season playing out to Massey's specs

[Professor Chaos]

Looking from the perspective of a Saluki homer my immediate response is why an 8-3 UND would get the 8 seed over an 8-3 SIU - they don't play each other, have similar SOS and SIU has an FBS win. Not that the 8 seed is a great prize, just wondering. And of course the last thing that would happen would be season playing out to Massey's specs
Of those 3 possible projected 8-3 teams in the MVFC UND would have a head-to-head win over NDSU and NDSU would have a head-to-head win over SIU. UND would also be 6-2 in conference (also riding a 4 game win streak with wins over NDSU and USD) whereas SIU would be 5-3. It's a whole lot of speculation though and probably not worth the squeeze on the fine points buts that's why I put UND as the 2nd team in the MVFC.


to date-
Nicholls losses- Sac St, TCU, Tulane
Lamar losses -Idaho, South Dakota, and ULM

I think alot of ranked FCS teams would have the same record as these two. (To date!). I just throwing this out there. Who knows how things will end.

I think Uiw slips up somewhere. Dont know where, but strange things happen down here. Their qb missed last game, not sure of his status. I dont think we have the run D to beat em.

Nicholls had a game cancelled. May come back to bite em? Say Nicholls finishes 6-4. With losses to Tcu, Tulane, Sac St and Uiw…
I don't think any SLC team outside of UIW even sniffs an at-large. The rest of the conference combined has 1 FCS out-of-conference win which was HCU's win over PV A&M last week. That many FBS and sub-D1 games OOC leaves little room for error and nobody but UIW in the SLC left themselves any.

EDIT: I guess if Nicholls beats SEMO and SEMO wins the OVC/Big South auto they could get a look at 6-4 (5-1) but SEMO would only be 6-5 and that probably means UTM snags an at-large tightening the bubble making it tougher for Nicholls to find a spot. Just not seeing it but I'm just a random fan - maybe the committee looks at it differently.

[Sitting Bull]

Great stuff. Your SoCon comments seem spot on.

Just a question. If Furman finishes 10-1 with only an FBS P5 SEC loss, and Delaware wins out, does the much easier schedule (missing upper CAA Teams - William & Mary, Albany, and Richmond) of Delaware enable Furman to grab the #3 Seed?

OK - one more query / ask - if you would be so kind - lay out the Seeding for FU if the above happens (assuming you answered “yes” (or as FUBeAR would call it, “correctly”) to FUBeAR’s 1st question) and/or either/both Montana State loses to Montana | SDSU loses to NDSU.

I think the decision on coin flips like that come down to revenue production. Delaware can sell more tickets so if it’s close, that will be a major factor.

For Delaware to get that high, they would have to beat Villanova, Towson and Elon. They already beat UNH. So it’s not as easy as you describe.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I think the decision on coin flips like that come down to revenue production. Delaware can sell more tickets so if it’s close, that will be a major factor.

For Delaware to get that high, they would have to beat Villanova, Towson and Elon. They already beat UNH. So it’s not as easy as you describe.

...IT'S HOW WE GOT IN LAST YEAR.........AWK!!

[wcugrad95]

Nice Work. Appreciate the effort...Hoping my Mocs figure a way to factor into the equation and be a third SoCon team in...SoCon has been a one trick pony for way too long. if they got three in, I think two of the three could garner wins and make the SoCon a respectable playoff conference again...at some point it becomes a numbers game. If MVFC gets 7 in, they will have advancements.....so, the rich get richer!!!!

If I am reading it correctly, I think the Professor just has a typo when he says 2 SOCON teams but then lists 3. These projections have UTC beating Furman and the SOCON having tri-champions at 7-1. That puts the Mocs in as the 3rd team, and FU and WCU both seeded.

For FUBeAR's questions, I would add another question. If FU wins out at 10-1 that means UTC is probably out (or it pushes Mercer further down the board) but I would argue a 10-1 Furman team would be deserving of at least the #3 seed since they are already ranked 3/4 in the STATS and Coaches poll. Given Montana and Montana St play each other, a 10-1 FU would be #3 (with an MSU win) or #2 (with a Montana win).

[Professor Chaos]

If I am reading it correctly, I think the Professor just has a typo when he says 2 SOCON teams but then lists 3. These projections have UTC beating Furman and the SOCON having tri-champions at 7-1. That puts the Mocs in as the 3rd team, and FU and WCU both seeded.

For FUBeAR's questions, I would add another question. If FU wins out at 10-1 that means UTC is probably out (or it pushes Mercer further down the board) but I would argue a 10-1 Furman team would be deserving of at least the #3 seed since they are already ranked 3/4 in the STATS and Coaches poll. Given Montana and Montana St play each other, a 10-1 FU would be #3 (with an MSU win) or #2 (with a Montana win).
I meant 2 at-large bids from the SOCON so one of those 3 is the auto.

I agree a 10-1 Furman looks pretty good for a #3 seed. I do think the winner of Montana St/Montana, if they're 10-1, would be seeded over a 10-1 Furman for #2 since both would have wins over Idaho and Sac State in addition to their win over the other.

[clenz]

Of those 3 possible projected 8-3 teams in the MVFC UND would have a head-to-head win over NDSU and NDSU would have a head-to-head win over SIU. UND would also be 6-2 in conference (also riding a 4 game win streak with wins over NDSU and USD) whereas SIU would be 5-3. It's a whole lot of speculation though and probably not worth the squeeze on the fine points buts that's why I put UND as the 2nd team in the MVFC.I get no one likes to rank UNI and it is what it is but...this whole thread is real interesting going back to the OG comments on teams.

UNI has the same overall record as UNI and YSU. Has a 3-1 Valley record compared to 2-2 for those 2, and has beaten both head to head yet is significantly behind them in every single human ranking, thought process, and pecking order for the playoffs. Why?

If only UNI would play Drake, Valpo, Robert Morris, or NAU OOC rather than Weber State we'd be 5-2. Those two teams are ****ing 4-4 and played those four schools OOC. They both get Murray State AND Indiana State. UNI misses that locked in W over Murray. They have 2 locked in Ws that UNI doesn't and they still sit behind UNI with a loss to them.

UNI "has work to do", and sure they do. Yet right now there is a fairly legitmate case to be made the finish 6-2 in Valley play, if not 7-1 pending which NDSU shows up in Cedar Falls. Yet somehow they will be ranked behind all of those teams come the final poll even should they win out and get to 8-3.

Even at 7-4 and it comes down to a UNI, YSU, and UND at 7-4 I promise literally every human here will rank UNI outside of the 25 (despite going 6-2 in Valley play and beating both) and YSU and UND in the top 15 and easily in the playoffs. All because UNI played Weber and UND/YSU played ****ing Valpo and Drake.

It is what it is, but the narrative around UNI has been built in before the season and I predicted exactly how it would play out week to week in the MVFC thread, so I expected this to be the case. It's just interesting to see how predictable it actually is.

[Professor Chaos]

I get no one likes to rank UNI and it is what it is but...this whole thread is real interesting going back to the OG comments on teams.

UNI has the same overall record as UNI and YSU. Has a 3-1 Valley record compared to 2-2 for those 2, and has beaten both head to head yet is significantly behind them in every single human ranking, thought process, and pecking order for the playoffs. Why?

If only UNI would play Drake, Valpo, Robert Morris, or NAU OOC rather than Weber State we'd be 5-2. Those two teams are ****ing 4-4 and played those four schools OOC. They both get Murray State AND Indiana State. UNI misses that locked in W over Murray. They have 2 locked in Ws that UNI doesn't and they still sit behind UNI with a loss to them.

UNI "has work to do", and sure they do. Yet right now there is a fairly legitmate case to be made the finish 6-2 in Valley play, if not 7-1 pending which NDSU shows up in Cedar Falls. Yet somehow they will be ranked behind all of those teams come the final poll even should they win out and get to 8-3.

Even at 7-4 and it comes down to a UNI, YSU, and UND at 7-4 I promise literally every human here will rank UNI outside of the 25 (despite going 6-2 in Valley play and beating both) and YSU and UND in the top 15 and easily in the playoffs. All because UNI played Weber and UND/YSU played ****ing Valpo and Drake.

It is what it is, but the narrative around UNI has been built in before the season and I predicted exactly how it would play out week to week in the MVFC thread, so I expected this to be the case. It's just interesting to see how predictable it actually is.
The simple answer is that loss to Weber St is an anchor hanging around UNI's neck right now. But at 7-4 (6-2) I think they're pretty safely in and at 8-3 (7-1) they could even be seeded. Where they're at in the polls right now doesn't mean much but all I can speak for is myself and I have UNI as the 3rd highest ranked team in the MVFC this week on the back of those wins over YSU and UND.

[clenz]

The simple answer is that loss to Weber St is an anchor hanging around UNI's neck right now. But at 7-4 (6-2) I think they're pretty safely in and at 8-3 (7-1) they could even be seeded. Where they're at in the polls right now doesn't mean much but all I can speak for is myself and I have UNI as the 3rd highest ranked team in the MVFC this week on the back of those wins over YSU and UND.
"anchor around the neck"

meanwhile boa tracing horrific non-scholarship teams is the cloud holding others up 10+ spots a head of them in the rankings.

That's the problem with the MVFC, or FCS in general. You get punished for playing a "real" schedule. You get punished for having the nerve (or lack of brain cells in UNI's AD case) to play someone other than a non-scholarship team.

It's one of the billion reasons I despise our AD. Playing those games has no reward and only risk. Kudos for UND and YSU for knowing how to pull the wool over voters' eyes and trick them. Start out 2-1 or 3-0 because you play teams that would be bad D3 teams you are set for the season compared to someone who beat you, has the same record, a better conference, record, etc. in spite of playing the #1 hardest SOS in the country.

You say you have them 3rd in the Valley yet somehow you have a minimum of 5 teams a head of them when it comes the playoff picture - SDSU, SIU, NDSU, USD, UND (who is seeded?) and even with YSU fighting for that last playoff spot

[Professor Chaos]

"anchor around the neck"

meanwhile boa tracing horrific non-scholarship teams is the cloud holding others up 10+ spots a head of them in the rankings.

That's the problem with the MVFC, or FCS in general. You get punished for playing a "real" schedule. You get punished for having the nerve (or lack of brain cells in UNI's AD case) to play someone other than a non-scholarship team.

It's one of the billion reasons I despise our AD. Playing those games has no reward and only risk. Kudos for UND and YSU for knowing how to pull the wool over voters' eyes and trick them. Start out 2-1 or 3-0 because you play teams that would be bad D3 teams you are set for the season compared to someone who beat you, has the same record, a better conference, record, etc. in spite of playing the #1 hardest SOS in the country.

You say you have them 3rd in the Valley yet somehow you have a minimum of 5 teams a head of them when it comes the playoff picture - SDSU, SIU, NDSU, USD, UND (who is seeded?) and even with YSU fighting for that last playoff spot
I have them as 7th in this list of MVFC teams right now because I think the teams above them have easier paths to 7 wins. Like you mentioned you can partially thank the imbalanced conference schedule for that but the Massey percentages say those road games at Illinois St and Missouri St won't be gimmes for UNI.

[Preferred Walk-On]

The simple answer is that loss to Weber St is an anchor hanging around UNI's neck right now. But at 7-4 (6-2) I think they're pretty safely in and at 8-3 (7-1) they could even be seeded. Where they're at in the polls right now doesn't mean much but all I can speak for is myself and I have UNI as the 3rd highest ranked team in the MVFC this week on the back of those wins over YSU and UND.

As do I, and I suspect a number of MVFC fans (and maybe even some MVFC haters) that vote on AGS.


"anchor around the neck"

meanwhile boa tracing horrific non-scholarship teams is the cloud holding others up 10+ spots a head of them in the rankings.

That's the problem with the MVFC, or FCS in general. You get punished for playing a "real" schedule. You get punished for having the nerve (or lack of brain cells in UNI's AD case) to play someone other than a non-scholarship team.

It's one of the billion reasons I despise our AD. Playing those games has no reward and only risk. Kudos for UND and YSU for knowing how to pull the wool over voters' eyes and trick them. Start out 2-1 or 3-0 because you play teams that would be bad D3 teams you are set for the season compared to someone who beat you, has the same record, a better conference, record, etc. in spite of playing the #1 hardest SOS in the country.

You say you have them 3rd in the Valley yet somehow you have a minimum of 5 teams a head of them when it comes the playoff picture - SDSU, SIU, NDSU, USD, UND (who is seeded?) and even with YSU fighting for that last playoff spot

Even if you divert the subject to fluffy wins by others, Weber State is still an anchor. That said, I have always respected UNI for scheduling difficult OOC games, and have defended a 6-5 UNI teams on numerous occasions, because of this AND because of the eye test when they have played NDSU in the past. They are so close to my top 10 right now, and there was legitimate debate with myself in putting them in the top 10. I just wish USD and UNI were playing this year.

[clenz]

Massey has USD with 3 losses in a row that would put them at 6-4. What's worse for a team/resume. A week 3 loss to Weber or losing 3 in a row in the final 4 games? USD also has all 3 of ISUb, WIU, and MUSU, plus playing a non-scholarship OOC. Jesus Christ.

Massey has "not a gimmie" for YSU with MOSU - same percent as UNI/ISUr yet they seem to get the benifit for that? - and a loss to SDSU but then there's the perk of having BOTH ISUb and MUSU on the schedule

UND gets 5 locked in wins from simply having Drake, NAU, WIU, ISUb, and WIU. Holy **** I literally can not imagine a more bitch ass schedule for a Valley team to have than that. If they aren't 8-3 minimum with that schedule they really shouldn't be a playoff team. They should have to finish 2 games clear of anyone else in the Valley, with a H-H win to be considered above that team.


This is what I'm getting at. You're (not just you but the royal you as well) are damning UNI for playing WSU meanwhile going giving equal weight to the otherside for playing half your schedule against the bottom of the bottom for the others. It doesn't add up. I know you do good work and do a lot research and thinking on it. I get that. It's just something that is built in to literally every voter, or person with an opinion, about UNI and the rest of the Valley when it comes to rankings. Because the reality is even if UNI had beaten Weber the talk around it at this point would be "yeah, but Weber isn't as good we thought they'd be preseason so it takes the shine off that win". You can deny it, but you know that is exactly what would be said about it. Meanwhile beating PFLs and NECs is a free pass.

It's just ****ing goofy to me.

[clenz]

As do I, and I suspect a number of MVFC fans (and maybe even some MVFC haters) that vote on AGS.



Even if you divert the subject to fluffy wins by others, Weber State is still an anchor. That said, I have always respected UNI for scheduling difficult OOC games, and have defended a 6-5 UNI teams on numerous occasions, because of this AND because of the eye test when they have played NDSU in the past. They are so close to my top 10 right now, and there was legitimate debate with myself in putting them in the top 10. I just wish USD and UNI were playing this year.
If Weber is an anchor what does that making getting your **** pushed in by a team that lost to Weber? Like shut out and losing by 4 scores? If Weber is an anchor then a 27-0 loss to a team that lost to Weber has to be a ****ing black hole, right?

Same thing - you give up 44 points to a team that lost to Weber and only managed 17 against that anchor of a loss. How ****ing embarrassing is that?

We can take it a step outside of the Valley as well with that. Montana nearly gets clipped by a ****ing D2, and then is in a 1 score game with Idaho State yet somehow top 10-12 team. UNI named their score on Idaho State the second they landed in Idaho. If even UNI doesn't struggle with Idaho State how can anyone justify ranking a team that does highly?

I bring that up because that's something I was seeing on social media last night. A knock against UNI was "They struggled to beat Indiana State", meanwhile the team that person ranked 4th also was in a 7 point game in the fourth quarter against Indiana State as UNI but it was spun as "gutting out a hard to come buy road Valley win. How? What's the difference? Why is one getting a "gutted out" and the other is "barely won"?. Same team. Same location. Fewer number of points scored.

It's entirely too predictable.

[caribbeanhen]

Massey has USD with 3 losses in a row that would put them at 6-4. What's worse for a team/resume. A week 3 loss to Weber or losing 3 in a row in the final 4 games? USD also has all 3 of ISUb, WIU, and MUSU, plus playing a non-scholarship OOC. Jesus Christ.

Massey has "not a gimmie" for YSU with MOSU - same percent as UNI/ISUr yet they seem to get the benifit for that? - and a loss to SDSU but then there's the perk of having BOTH ISUb and MUSU on the schedule

UND gets 5 locked in wins from simply having Drake, NAU, WIU, ISUb, and WIU. Holy **** I literally can not imagine a more bitch ass schedule for a Valley team to have than that. If they aren't 8-3 minimum with that schedule they really shouldn't be a playoff team. They should have to finish 2 games clear of anyone else in the Valley, with a H-H win to be considered above that team.


This is what I'm getting at. You're (not just you but the royal you as well) are damning UNI for playing WSU meanwhile going giving equal weight to the otherside for playing half your schedule against the bottom of the bottom for the others. It doesn't add up. I know you do good work and do a lot research and thinking on it. I get that. It's just something that is built in to literally every voter, or person with an opinion, about UNI and the rest of the Valley when it comes to rankings. Because the reality is even if UNI had beaten Weber the talk around it at this point would be "yeah, but Weber isn't as good we thought they'd be preseason so it takes the shine off that win". You can deny it, but you know that is exactly what would be said about it. Meanwhile beating PFLs and NECs is a free pass.

It's just ****ing goofy to me.

because people despite boat loads and anchors of evidence to the contrary, still believe Weber State is good

UNI got a nice bump in my poll as did NC A&T … haha just kidding on A&T

[clenz]

because people despite boat loads and anchors of evidence to the contrary, still believe Weber State is good


Thank you for making my point for me

I said even if UNI had beaten WSU it would be glossed over because WSU isn't as good as people thought they'd be and you just confirmed it for me with your thoughts.

Even if WSU isn't that good which win would/should carry more weight? WSU or Valpo/Drake?

[crusader11]

Problem for UNI is getting doubled up at home to a Weber team that's shown it's not very good. Only beating 0-7 Indiana St by a possession may also cause voters to raise an eyebrow. Also, as good as SDSU is, you'd have liked to have seen UNI be at least competitive with them.

All that said, UNI was in my 25 this week.

[Professor Chaos]

I get no one likes to rank UNI and it is what it is but...this whole thread is real interesting going back to the OG comments on teams.

UNI has the same overall record as UNI and YSU. Has a 3-1 Valley record compared to 2-2 for those 2, and has beaten both head to head yet is significantly behind them in every single human ranking, thought process, and pecking order for the playoffs. Why?

If only UNI would play Drake, Valpo, Robert Morris, or NAU OOC rather than Weber State we'd be 5-2. Those two teams are ****ing 4-4 and played those four schools OOC. They both get Murray State AND Indiana State. UNI misses that locked in W over Murray. They have 2 locked in Ws that UNI doesn't and they still sit behind UNI with a loss to them.

UNI "has work to do", and sure they do. Yet right now there is a fairly legitmate case to be made the finish 6-2 in Valley play, if not 7-1 pending which NDSU shows up in Cedar Falls. Yet somehow they will be ranked behind all of those teams come the final poll even should they win out and get to 8-3.

Even at 7-4 and it comes down to a UNI, YSU, and UND at 7-4 I promise literally every human here will rank UNI outside of the 25 (despite going 6-2 in Valley play and beating both) and YSU and UND in the top 15 and easily in the playoffs. All because UNI played Weber and UND/YSU played ****ing Valpo and Drake.

It is what it is, but the narrative around UNI has been built in before the season and I predicted exactly how it would play out week to week in the MVFC thread, so I expected this to be the case. It's just interesting to see how predictable it actually is.
I think I agree with you more than you realize. Using Massey percentages to predict the remaining games I had UNI as one of 3 MVFC teams to finish at 7-4 and had them as the first one into the playoffs of those 3 (all 3 were in the "last 4 in"). If both UNI ad UND finish 8-3 I fully agree UNI should get a seed before UND does. As far as the polls go I think had UNI beaten Weber St, who would be 1-6 vs D1 teams had that happened, you're right no one would give much credit for it but I'm pretty sure UNI would be getting full credit for good wins vs YSU and UND and would be consensus top 10 right now if not for that Weber St loss giving voters an excuse to ding them.

[clenz]

Problem for UNI is getting doubled up at home to a Weber team that's shown it's not very good. Only beating 0-7 Indiana St by a possession may also cause voters to raise an eyebrow. Also, as good as SDSU is, you'd have liked to have seen UNI be at least competitive with them.

All that said, UNI was in my 25 this week.
And if you didn't watch that Weber and game only look at the score you're right. That was a one score game with 5 minutes left to go. Then UNI was forcing passes and turnovers will run that score up at the end.

SDSU was ugly. 100%. Much like Weber turning the ball over 6 times in a game will do that.


Do you have the same energy for USD for struggling with Indiana State? They won by 14 instead of 7 but it was a 7 point game well into the 4th and they scored 10 less points than UNI did.

Do you have that same energy to knock Montana to the land of borderline unranked for beating a D2 by 7 and Idaho State by 7? Both of those games at home? Meanwhile UNI went to ISUO and could have hung 60 had they wanted to.

Outside of Montana State when was the last time anyone was competitive with SDSU? I bet it was UNI in 2022 when SDSU needed a last second FG to win. - edit forgot the SIU game this weekend. Do you hold UND getting curbed against them the same way you're holding it against UNI? No? Why not? Remember UND just got **** house 27-0 by that VERY same UNI team just 7 days after UNI got canned by SDSU.

YSU gave up 28 to Robert Morris. RMU hasn't scored that many points all year against a full scholarship D1 school. In fact, they've only done it twice all year and one was a non D1.

See, what I'm pointing out is if you want to take the energy you do against UNI then fine. Just make sure you're taking that same energy, that same position penalty, that same "yeah but" against everyone in the same way.


Everyone should also note - not once have I said UNI should be ranked. Not once have I said they are "a top X team". What I have said is "it's far too predictable the standard that will be held against UNI but not applied elsewhere"

[The Yo Show]

And if you didn't watch that Weber and game only look at the score you're right. That was a one score game with 5 minutes left to go. Then UNI was forcing passes and turnovers will run that score up at the end.

SDSU was ugly. 100%. Much like Weber turning the ball over 6 times in a game will do that.


Do you have the same energy for USD for struggling with Indiana State? They won by 14 instead of 7 but it was a 7 point game well into the 4th and they scored 10 less points than UNI did.

Do you have that same energy to knock Montana to the land of borderline unranked for beating a D2 by 7 and Idaho State by 7? Both of those games at home? Meanwhile UNI went to ISUO and could have hung 60 had they wanted to.

Outside of Montana State when was the last time anyone was competitive with SDSU? I bet it was UNI in 2022 when SDSU needed a last second FG to win. - edit forgot the SIU game this weekend. Do you hold UND getting curbed against them the same way you're holding it against UNI? No? Why not? Remember UND just got **** house 27-0 by that VERY same UNI team just 7 days after UNI got canned by SDSU.

YSU gave up 28 to Robert Morris. RMU hasn't scored that many points all year against a full scholarship D1 school. In fact, they've only done it twice all year and one was a non D1.

See, what I'm pointing out is if you want to take the energy you do against UNI then fine. Just make sure you're taking that same energy, that same position penalty, that same "yeah but" against everyone in the same way.


Everyone should also note - not once have I said UNI should be ranked. Not once have I said they are "a top X team". What I have said is "it's far too predictable the standard that will be held against UNI but not applied elsewhere"

Clenz, I had UNI at 15 in my poll this week and YSU at 22 FWIW.

For correction to the bolded point above, RMU has done it three times, twice against D1 (YSU, Saint Francis and then the non D1 VA Lynchburg).

For other consideration to your comments though, two of those TDs came after YSU put their backups in, and one is assuredly in garbage time if not both.

Lastly, RMU is a full 63 scholly team this year since they have been in the Big South now for a few years.

[The Yo Show]

Here's a real head scratcher (not saying it will happen or is even likely). What do you do if YSU and UNI both win out and end at 8-3?

[Professor Chaos]

Here's a real head scratcher (not saying it will happen or is even likely). What do you do if YSU and UNI both win out and end at 8-3?
They'd both obsviously be in but I'd say that would put YSU in the seeds since they'd have a win (probably the only win????) over presumptive top 2 seed SDSU.

[clenz]

They'd both obsviuosly be in but I'd say that would put YSU in the seeds since they'd have a win (probably the only win) over presumptive top 2 seed SDSU.
Flip side: UNI would be 7-1 in Valley play and that SDSU loss would give UNI a share of the conference title, a H-H win over YSU, and a win over NDSU in the final week of the season. YSU would be 6-2 in Valley play and pending tie breaks could end up being technically 4th or 5th in Valley standings

Not that that matters. 2019 UNI finished 2nd outright in the Valley 2 games clear of SDSU who finished 5th and SDSU got the seed and UNI got sent to SDSU in the playoffs - where UNI beat them.

[Professor Chaos]

Flip side: UNI would be 7-1 in Valley play and that SDSU loss would give UNI a share of the conference title, a H-H win over YSU, and a win over NDSU in the final week of the season. YSU would be 6-2 in Valley play and pending tie breaks could end up being technically 4th or 5th in Valley standings

Not that that matters. 2019 UNI finished 2nd outright in the Valley 2 games clear of SDSU who finished 5th and SDSU got the seed and UNI got sent to SDSU in the playoffs - where UNI beat them.
That's a fair point. Although I'd say UNI's 3 point win over YSU at home could be discounted by YSU beating an SDSU team that trucked UNI. A win over NDSU may not be all that special this year if UNI does it since that would but likely put NDSU at 7-4 at best. Solid win but nothing that competes with YSU beating a likely 10-1 SDSU.

[SeattleCat]

because people despite boat loads and anchors of evidence to the contrary, still believe Weber State is good

UNI got a nice bump in my poll as did NC A&T … haha just kidding on A&T

That's ok I tried to rank Delaware State at 5.

[WrenFGun]

The playoff field is an absolute mess this season. I did my first prognostication internally a few days ago and it's just a mess. I didn't even consider a team like Eastern Illinois that could finish with a compelling record and a win over Illinois State.

A few notes from me:

1. I think Sacramento State may have a schedule that makes it REAL hard to make the playoffs. Now with an FBS win over Stanford, even if they lose @Montana they're fine. But they have a good Idaho State team at home and a potential elimination game @UCDavis to close the season. Both teams maybe 7-3 entering that game.

2. Chattanooga, for a second straight year, may have scheduled themselves out of the playoffs. The UNI of the south. No good wins and they may lose to both Furman and certainly Bama to close out. I don't see a 7-4 Chattanooga that loses 3 of their last 4 getting in, though UD did it last year.

3. The UAC is fascinating. UCA and AP play to close the season, and both play EKU.

4. The PL. What the hell, man. Lafayette can knock Georgetown out of the running with a win on Saturday, which would make the Fordham/Lafayette game in 3 weeks a potential title game, except that Fordham has to beat Holy Cross next week. Should be exciting. I imagine that HC/Fordham game will be a war.

5. The UNI/ISU-R is probably an elimination game.

6. The CAA is a mess. Delaware looks the best, but as some sneaky tough matchups coming up @Towson, Elon, @Campbell and Villanova. 2-2 gets them into the field, but that Nova game is a war. Richmond is hot, but have Campbell, Elon and WM left, and may need to win all 3. ELON would be eliminated next week losing to Delaware. Nova has to beat either UNH or Delaware to get in. WM may be in the same boat UNH is in after losing to Towson -- may have to win out and travel to Albany and host Richmond. UAlbany is in great shape; relatively easy schedule, played an extra game. I think the CAA is an easy two bid league with Albany and Delaware, the question is if anyone can get in a third and fourth spot. If the bubble isn't soft enough it may be a two bid league.

[clenz]

That's a fair point. Although I'd say UNI's 3 point win over YSU at home could be discounted by YSU beating an SDSU team that trucked UNI. A win over NDSU may not be all that special this year if UNI does it since that would but likely put NDSU at 7-4 at best. Solid win but nothing that competes with YSU beating a likely 10-1 SDSU.
See, it's already being laid out that a win against NDSU for UNI wouldn't be that impressive because "NDSU is down" yet USD is ranked #4 right now soley on the strength of the NDSU win. Does USD also take a significant hit, just like UNI, because that NDSU win doesn't carry the weight it would have 2 years ago? Dose UND also take a massive ranking hit for that NDSU win?

You see where I'm going with this - and have been trying to point out? You literally used the word "discounted" for UNI beating Youngstown State because of other games on the schedule. It's how everyone has treated UNI for the better part of 15 years while not applying the same logic elsewhere.

You're also already dissmissing UNI's potential win to get to 8-3 (7-1) over NDSU meanwhile USD and UND get a MASSIVE boost from it and never corrected back because "NDSU isn't as impressive". If UNI has to take a major hit because NDSU isn't as good as they were in the past it sure as hell also better be applied to UND (who got shut out by UNI) and USD who has potentially the weakest MVFC schedule.

[MSUBobcat]

Massey has USD with 3 losses in a row that would put them at 6-4. What's worse for a team/resume. A week 3 loss to Weber or losing 3 in a row in the final 4 games? USD also has all 3 of ISUb, WIU, and MUSU, plus playing a non-scholarship OOC. Jesus Christ.

Massey has "not a gimmie" for YSU with MOSU - same percent as UNI/ISUr yet they seem to get the benifit for that? - and a loss to SDSU but then there's the perk of having BOTH ISUb and MUSU on the schedule

UND gets 5 locked in wins from simply having Drake, NAU, WIU, ISUb, and WIU. Holy **** I literally can not imagine a more bitch ass schedule for a Valley team to have than that. If they aren't 8-3 minimum with that schedule they really shouldn't be a playoff team. They should have to finish 2 games clear of anyone else in the Valley, with a H-H win to be considered above that team.


This is what I'm getting at. You're (not just you but the royal you as well) are damning UNI for playing WSU meanwhile going giving equal weight to the otherside for playing half your schedule against the bottom of the bottom for the others. It doesn't add up. I know you do good work and do a lot research and thinking on it. I get that. It's just something that is built in to literally every voter, or person with an opinion, about UNI and the rest of the Valley when it comes to rankings. Because the reality is even if UNI had beaten Weber the talk around it at this point would be "yeah, but Weber isn't as good we thought they'd be preseason so it takes the shine off that win". You can deny it, but you know that is exactly what would be said about it. Meanwhile beating PFLs and NECs is a free pass.

It's just ****ing goofy to me.

I think I'd have UNI as the 4th best Valley team, behind SDSU, USD and NDSU (we'll find out about this one on the field). The reason Weber is an "anchor" is because it turns out they just aren't very good. You say UND gets 5 locked in wins from NAU, et al, but NAU has beaten Montana AND..... the same Weber team that came to the UNI-dome and won by 17 (NAU beat BBQ by 17 in Odgen BTW). Weber is a BAD loss this year and should have been one of those "locked-in" wins that you're upset about other teams having. The Grills have 3 total wins: a decent D-II Central Washington (but DII nonetheless), a terrible, terrible NoCo team that will go winless (and needed late game heroics for the W to boot) and then somehow played their best game of the year against UNI. Rather than try to prop up Weebs as some juggernaut, shift the argument to "it was a bad game and it was a month and a half ago", which is how I see it. If they played WSU in Cedar Falls 10 more times right now, UNI wins every one. But on that particular Any Given Saturday, the shoe was on the other foot and the Panthers took a bad, bad loss.

As for the second part, if UNI was 5-2 with losses to FBS Iowa State and #1 SDSU, with wins over YSU and drubbing highly ranked UND, they would easily be top 15. C'mon, meow. Tone down the hyperbole just a touch. You are right tho: the shine would definitely be off that win, which also explains why taking the L is so damaging.

[Professor Chaos]

See, it's already being laid out that a win against NDSU for UNI wouldn't be that impressive because "NDSU is down" yet USD is ranked #4 right now soley on the strength of the NDSU win. Does USD also take a significant hit, just like UNI, because that NDSU win doesn't carry the weight it would have 2 years ago? Dose UND also take a massive ranking hit for that NDSU win?

You see where I'm going with this - and have been trying to point out? You literally used the word "discounted" for UNI beating Youngstown State because of other games on the schedule. It's how everyone has treated UNI for the better part of 15 years while not applying the same logic elsewhere.

You're also already dissmissing UNI's potential win to get to 8-3 (7-1) over NDSU meanwhile USD and UND get a MASSIVE boost from it and never corrected back because "NDSU isn't as impressive". If UNI has to take a major hit because NDSU isn't as good as they were in the past it sure as hell also better be applied to UND (who got shut out by UNI) and USD who has potentially the weakest MVFC schedule.
You're making false equivalencies between my opinion and the collective opinion in the polls. I said last week on the AGS poll thread that I didn't think USD and UND deserved to be ranked as high as they were driven primarily off of a win over an NDSU team that might not be very good. This phenomenon of your wins not looking as good because your opponents have to take those losses isn't exclusive to UNI. USD/UND should (and would IMO) take hits if NDSU goes further in the tank relative to where they were when those teams beat them.

[clenz]

I think I'd have UNI as the 4th best Valley team, behind SDSU, USD and NDSU (we'll find out about this one on the field). The reason Weber is an "anchor" is because it turns out they just aren't very good. You say UND gets 5 locked in wins from NAU, et al, but NAU has beaten Montana AND..... the same Weber team that came to the UNI-dome and won by 17 (NAU beat BBQ by 17 in Odgen BTW). Weber is a BAD loss this year and should have been one of those "locked-in" wins that you're upset about other teams having. The Grills have 3 total wins: a decent D-II Central Washington (but DII nonetheless), a terrible, terrible NoCo team that will go winless (and needed late game heroics for the W to boot) and then somehow played their best game of the year against UNI. Rather than try to prop up Weebs as some juggernaut, shift the argument to "it was a bad game and it was a month and a half ago", which is how I see it. If they played WSU in Cedar Falls 10 more times right now, UNI wins every one. But on that particular Any Given Saturday, the shoe was on the other foot and the Panthers took a bad, bad loss.
I haven't propped them up. I've asked why UNI should be punished for a Weber game in week ****ing 2 and it's because "Weber Bad". Fine. Week 2 means as much/more than Week 8-12 now. Again, look past the score and it was a 1 score game with 5 minutes left. UNI pressed late and it back fired. It happens. It is what it is. I've not tried to spin it as a good win. Hell, in your own post you are somehow spinning NAU as a good win because they beat Montana in week 4 or whenever it was while saying Weber would be a bad win no matter what because their record is bad. What kind of weird transitional property idea is that? Bad is bad is bad.

I'm saying UNI gets punished in ways and proportions that others won't but also they get rewarded in direct proportion in ways they shouldnt to UNI losing. Why is beating Drake or Valpo worth an extra 10 slots in the polls, especially when you've beat that team head to head?

[clenz]

You're making false equivalencies between my opinion and the collective opinion in the polls. I said last week on the AGS poll thread that I didn't think USD and UND deserved to be ranked as high as they were driven primarily off of a win over an NDSU team that might not be very good. This phenomenon of your wins not looking as good because your opponents have to take those losses isn't exclusive to UNI. USD/UND should (and would IMO) take hits if NDSU goes further in the tank relative to where they were when those teams beat them.
But they won't because slot voting. They already got the bump and literally no one is going to retroactively remove that bump.

Same reason UNI is going to be punished to the end of the season for a game in week 2 - and you bring it up as a literal boat anchor - on UNI's neck.

That bump/valley already was applied to those teams it they will never be removed any voters. So now when UNI beats NDSU rather than getting a bump for beating a meh/average NDSU team like UND or USD did get to have the win discredited.

All I've advocated for this entire thread is take that same energy against UNI and apply it elsewhere. Again, never once have I advocated for UNI to be top 15 or ranked at all even.

[MSUBobcat]

And if you didn't watch that Weber and game only look at the score you're right. That was a one score game with 5 minutes left to go. Then UNI was forcing passes and turnovers will run that score up at the end.

SDSU was ugly. 100%. Much like Weber turning the ball over 6 times in a game will do that.


Do you have the same energy for USD for struggling with Indiana State? They won by 14 instead of 7 but it was a 7 point game well into the 4th and they scored 10 less points than UNI did.

Do you have that same energy to knock Montana to the land of borderline unranked for beating a D2 by 7 and Idaho State by 7? Both of those games at home? Meanwhile UNI went to ISUO and could have hung 60 had they wanted to.

Outside of Montana State when was the last time anyone was competitive with SDSU? I bet it was UNI in 2022 when SDSU needed a last second FG to win. - edit forgot the SIU game this weekend. Do you hold UND getting curbed against them the same way you're holding it against UNI? No? Why not? Remember UND just got **** house 27-0 by that VERY same UNI team just 7 days after UNI got canned by SDSU.

YSU gave up 28 to Robert Morris. RMU hasn't scored that many points all year against a full scholarship D1 school. In fact, they've only done it twice all year and one was a non D1.

See, what I'm pointing out is if you want to take the energy you do against UNI then fine. Just make sure you're taking that same energy, that same position penalty, that same "yeah but" against everyone in the same way.


Everyone should also note - not once have I said UNI should be ranked. Not once have I said they are "a top X team". What I have said is "it's far too predictable the standard that will be held against UNI but not applied elsewhere"

Some incorrect info and lacking context here. USD-ISUb was not a 7 point game until "well into the 4th". They scored to make it a 14pt lead at the 12 minute mark and they took 2 kneel downs inside the 10 to end the game. So yes, they started slow, but the game was pretty well in hand in the 4th and could have been a wider point spread.

With Montana, I was heavily critical of them early (and not just because of my bias against them). However, those who follow more closely know that they made a much-needed change at QB (Vidlak sucked out loud). Due to this, I have changed my tune from, "we're gonna murder them in their own building" to "this could be a dog fight in Wa-Griz this year".

[clenz]

Some incorrect info and lacking context here. USD-ISUb was not a 7 point game until "well into the 4th". They scored to make it a 14pt lead at the 12 minute mark and they took 2 kneel downs inside the 10 to end the game. So yes, they started slow, but the game was pretty well in hand in the 4th and could have been a wider point spread.

With Montana, I was heavily critical of them early (and not just because of my bias against them). However, those who follow more closely know that they made a much-needed change at QB (Vidlak sucked out loud). Due to this, I have changed my tune from, "we're gonna murder them in their own building" to "this could be a dog fight in Wa-Griz this year".
And UNI also started slow against ISU. Didn't score in the first quarter. In fact they were down 10-7 until the final second of the first half. Second half started slow and UNI was down 17-10 with 12 minutes left in the third.

The game finished 27-20 and was 27-17 until ISU hit a field goal with 2 minutes left. UNI then kneed the game out.

So USD gets credit for overcoming a slow start and turning it on the second half but UNI doesn't?

Got it. Makes sense.

So Montana turns their season around after a slow start and struggling with a D2 and an awful Idaho State team that UNI pounded and gets credit for it.
UNI starts the season 0-2 and is 4-1 since, including two teams currently ranked in the top 15-17 (one of them a shut out by 4 TDs) and it's "Weber bad and you lost to them so your season is ****ty and trying to rank you is futile and should be lucky to be between 20-25?

Got it. Makes sense. It's exactly what I projected what would happen on a post I made on July 30th. Almost word for word. Maybe I'll go find it and paste it in here.

[MSUBobcat]

I haven't propped them up. I've asked why UNI should be punished for a Weber game in week ****ing 2 and it's because "Weber Bad". Fine. Week 2 means as much/more than Week 8-12 now. Again, look past the score and it was a 1 score game with 5 minutes left. UNI pressed late and it back fired. It happens. It is what it is. I've not tried to spin it as a good win. Hell, in your own post you are somehow spinning NAU as a good win because they beat Montana in week 4 or whenever it was while saying Weber would be a bad win no matter what because their record is bad. What kind of weird transitional property idea is that? Bad is bad is bad.

I'm saying UNI gets punished in ways and proportions that others won't but also they get rewarded in direct proportion in ways they shouldnt to UNI losing. Why is beating Drake or Valpo worth an extra 10 slots in the polls, especially when you've beat that team head to head?

No, you're either trying to spin what I said, or you misinterpreted it. If NAU is a locked-in win, then WSU absolutely has to be a locked-in win because... NAU is better than BBQ. Neither is a good win, which compounds how bad the LOSS is. Follow?

FWIW, in my mock poll last night, UNI is absolutely above UND. No question. No logical person could look at that game and say UND is the better team.

[clenz]

No, you're either trying to spin what I said, or you misinterpreted it. If NAU is a locked-in win, then WSU absolutely has to be a locked-in win because... NAU is better than BBQ. Neither is a good win, which compounds how bad the LOSS is. Follow?

FWIW, in my mock poll last night, UNI is absolutely above UND. No question. No logical person could look at that game and say UND is the better team.
Then 99% of the voters in every single poll aren't logical.

Again, all I've asked is the same exact ****ing logic used to discredit (an actual word used to describe a UNI win and potential win in this thread) UNI get applied across the board.

UNI struggled with Indiana State. Fine. You're right. Then punish people equally for also having a 7 point game in the 4th against ISUb. Punish someone for struggling against an Idaho State team that is just as bad. "UNI beating NDSU wouldn't mean much because they aren't good". Fine. Then take any bump you gave USD or UND away from them.

I challenge you to point to point to a single place I've said UNI should be ranked. I haven't. You (again royal) want to give reasons to not rank UNI or rank them low? Great. Love it. Now tell me why that logic only applies there and not to anyone else.

[JacksFan40]

See, it's already being laid out that a win against NDSU for UNI wouldn't be that impressive because "NDSU is down" yet USD is ranked #4 right now soley on the strength of the NDSU win. Does USD also take a significant hit, just like UNI, because that NDSU win doesn't carry the weight it would have 2 years ago? Dose UND also take a massive ranking hit for that NDSU win?

You see where I'm going with this - and have been trying to point out? You literally used the word "discounted" for UNI beating Youngstown State because of other games on the schedule. It's how everyone has treated UNI for the better part of 15 years while not applying the same logic elsewhere.

You're also already dissmissing UNI's potential win to get to 8-3 (7-1) over NDSU meanwhile USD and UND get a MASSIVE boost from it and never corrected back because "NDSU isn't as impressive". If UNI has to take a major hit because NDSU isn't as good as they were in the past it sure as hell also better be applied to UND (who got shut out by UNI) and USD who has potentially the weakest MVFC schedule.
UND will be taking a major hit for that loss to UNI. USD will depend on how they do against SDSU. If they lose competitively, they'll stay where they are. If they get blown out they'll drop. If they win they'll probably be #2 or #3.

The weight of a win over NDSU will depend on how NDSU finishes out this season. When USD beat them, the Bison were 3-0 and ranked #2, that's why USD got such a bump. UND got less of a bump due to NDSU being 4-1 and ranked #6 by that point. If NDSU gets dropped by SDSU, it'll make a UNI win over the Bison no where as important as what it was for USD. If NDSU drops to both SDSU and SIU, beating NDSU will mean nothing by that point.

[clenz]

The weight of a win over NDSU will depend on how NDSU finishes out this season. When USD beat them, the Bison were 3-0 and ranked #2, that's why USD got such a bump. UND got less of a bump due to NDSU being 4-1 and ranked #6 by that point. If NDSU gets dropped by SDSU, it'll make a UNI win over the Bison no where as important as what it was for USD. If NDSU drops to both SDSU and SIU, beating NDSU will mean nothing by that point.
I know why it would happen that way but do you see how ****ing backwards that thinking is?

UNI's win doesn't mean anything because NDSU isn't good.

They also weren't good early in the year but people thought they were so USD and UND get a major bump because, even though NDSU was also bad early in the season we just didn't know it fully yet.

UNI would have beat the same roster/team that UND and USD did. You don't want to give UNI a potential bump for that should it happen? Fine. I can't fault that at all. My issue is this isn't a different year. UND an USD didn't beat 2016 or 2019 NDSU. The beat the same "bad" NDSU roster that UNI would have. The wins should be treated the same when it comes to rankings then.

It's why slot voting and thought patterns are the dumbest things to exist in voting.

[MSUBobcat]

And UNI also started slow against ISU. Didn't score in the first quarter. In fact they were down 10-7 until the final second of the first half. Second half started slow and UNI was down 17-10 with 12 minutes left in the third.

The game finished 27-20 and was 27-17 until ISU hit a field goal with 2 minutes left. UNI then kneed the game out.

So USD gets credit for overcoming a slow start and turning it on the second half but UNI doesn't?

Got it. Makes sense.

So Montana turns their season around after a slow start and struggling with a D2 and an awful Idaho State team that UNI pounded and gets credit for it.
UNI starts the season 0-2 and is 4-1 since, including two teams currently ranked in the top 15-17 (one of them a shut out by 4 TDs) and it's "Weber bad and you lost to them so your season is ****ty and trying to rank you is futile and should be lucky to be between 20-25?

Got it. Makes sense. It's exactly what I projected what would happen on a post I made on July 30th. Almost word for word. Maybe I'll go find it and paste it in here.

You're a master at twisting things in your own head, that's a given. USD isn't getting that much credit for beating ISUb. No idea where you are getting that. But... they never trailed for 1 second, won by more points, and when the Yotes took kneeled it was to prevent running up the score (they were on the Sycamore 8 yard line). UNI trailed as late as the 3rd quarter, won by less points, and took the knee to get out with a W (they were pinned on their own 2 yard line). So yes... USD DID perform better against ISUb, objectively.

Given that the QB is the single most important position on the field... yes, factoring in that they replaced a schlub with someone who is competent absolutely matters. The poll is meant to be ever-changing using the data we have to that point. Given what I know of all 3, I think both USD and UM beat UNI on a neutral field, so I would definitely have both ahead of UNI. Simple.

[clenz]

You're a master at twisting things in your own head, that's a given. USD isn't getting that much credit for beating ISUb. No idea where you are getting that. But... they never trailed for 1 second, won by more points, and when the Yotes took kneeled it was to prevent running up the score (they were on the Sycamore 8 yard line). UNI trailed as late as the 3rd quarter, won by less points, and took the knee to get out with a W (they were pinned on their own 2 yard line). So yes... USD DID perform better against ISUb, objectively.

Given that the QB is the single most important position on the field... yes, factoring in that they replaced a schlub with someone who is competent absolutely matters. The poll is meant to be ever-changing using the data we have to that point. Given what I know of all 3, I think both USD and UM beat UNI on a neutral field, so I would definitely have both ahead of UNI. Simple.
I've not said USD got a massive bump for ISU. I'm saying it's interesting to see both teams play close games in Indiana and one is "punished" for it in voter eyes and the other is seen as overcoming and gutting out a road win the Valley, which is difficult to do.

Which is a narrative I've seen pushed on social media by larger national "names" that cover the FCS. Including a direct exchange last night between him and the PxP guy for UNI.

[JacksFan40]

I know why it would happen that way but do you see how ****ing backwards that thinking is?

UNI's win doesn't mean anything because NDSU isn't good.

They also weren't good early in the year but people thought they were so USD and UND get a major bump because, even though NDSU was also bad early in the season we just didn't know it fully yet.

UNI would have beat the same roster/team that UND and USD did. You don't want to give UNI a potential bump for that should it happen? Fine. I can't fault that at all. My issue is this isn't a different year. UND an USD didn't beat 2016 or 2019 NDSU. The beat the same "bad" NDSU roster that UNI would have. The wins should be treated the same when it comes to rankings then.

It's why slot voting and thought patterns are the dumbest things to exist in voting.
Voting is done based on the perception of the win at the time. USD beating NDSU at the time was seen as huge and vaulted USD up the rankings. If NDSU continues to falter, that won't affect USD as long as USD does not falter as well, but the win over NDSU will no longer carry the same weight as when it happened. The reason USD continues to move up is because they continue to win. UND just got hammered by UNI and will drop down the rankings. Their win over NDSU is not going to help them anymore, it only moved them up a few spots as it was. This is just how rankings and voting works. Nobody could predict that NDSU would end up being not very good (except NDSU fans apparently). If UNI had beaten NDSU instead of USD that week, UNI would've received that same bump in the rankings, and would have continued to move up if they won afterwards. But UNI already has two FCS losses, one of which was to a not very good Weber State, and the other was a thrashing by SDSU.

[MSUBobcat]

I would like to amend my ordering of the MVFC teams. UNI should be 3rd, given what I know to date. I was using my assumption that NDSU beats them, and that's a bad assumption to make given everything that has happed so far this season. SDSU is the clear #1, followed by USD, then UNI. UNI throttled the team that throttled the team I previously said was #3 and that doesn't make sense at this point with the information we currently have. Luckily, they get to settle it on the field. UNI could possibly pass USD as early as this weekend with a loss by USD against the Rabbits and UNI beating ISU-r, depending on the tightness of each game. Very similar resumes: 1 beat NDSU in Fargo, the other beat a team that beat NDSU. Both beat YSU at home by 3. Some wins over teams you expect to beat and an FBS loss. UNI has that bad loss, which is the separation to this point IMO.

[MSUBobcat]

Voting is done based on the perception of the win at the time. USD beating NDSU at the time was seen as huge and vaulted USD up the rankings. If NDSU continues to falter, that won't affect USD as long as USD does not falter as well, but the win over NDSU will no longer carry the same weight as when it happened. The reason USD continues to move up is because they continue to win. UND just got hammered by UNI and will drop down the rankings. Their win over NDSU is not going to help them anymore, it only moved them up a few spots as it was. This is just how rankings and voting works. Nobody could predict that NDSU would end up being not very good (except NDSU fans apparently). If UNI had beaten NDSU instead of USD that week, UNI would've received that same bump in the rankings, and would have continued to move up if they won afterwards. But UNI already has two FCS losses, one of which was to a not very good Weber State, and the other was a thrashing by SDSU.

C'mon, now... just because they are masters of sandbagging doesn't mean they predicted anything. I can call for rain every day, doesn't make me a meteorologist when it finally rains. xsmiley_wix

[atthewbon]

It would be crazy if the MVFC got 7 teams in the field, I doubt it happens as I imagine the league will cannibalize itself. Though if these Massey results do hold true, it would be really hard to leave any of the 7 out.

[clenz]

Voting is done based on the perception of the win at the time. USD beating NDSU at the time was seen as huge and vaulted USD up the rankings. If NDSU continues to falter, that won't affect USD as long as USD does not falter as well, but the win over NDSU will no longer carry the same weight as when it happened. The reason USD continues to move up is because they continue to win. UND just got hammered by UNI and will drop down the rankings. Their win over NDSU is not going to help them anymore, it only moved them up a few spots as it was. This is just how rankings and voting works. Nobody could predict that NDSU would end up being not very good (except NDSU fans apparently). If UNI had beaten NDSU instead of USD that week, UNI would've received that same bump in the rankings, and would have continued to move up if they won afterwards. But UNI already has two FCS losses, one of which was to a not very good Weber State, and the other was a thrashing by SDSU.
So then the WSU loss shouldn't hurt UNI and shouldn't be called a boat anchor around the neck of UNI. WSU was ranked #9 at the time of that game and IIRC were near top 5 in the poll after that game. So again, if we can retroactively hold teams being bad against UNI then we can retroactively hold teams being bad against teams that beat them. Or if NDSU being #3 when USD beat them matters then WSU being #9 when they beat UNI matters and that loss has almost zero negative weight because it was against a top 10 team. Right? Right?

Again, I'm not arguing that your thought pattern is how it happens. I'm challenging why it's acceptable that it happens that way.

You also keep saying UND is going to fall for losing to UNI. They really haven't. They are still top 15 in every poll and poll submission I've seen. UNI is lucky to be 23 in 98% of them I've seen.

You're giving voters far too much benefit. I've been around here for nearly 2 decades - long time lurker before registering. I've seen this story play out year after year after year. Most times with UNI but not always. I've pointed out similar bull**** with other teams over the years. It bothers the hell out of me, and when you challenge people on it there are so many holes in the logic that just continue to get explained in circular logic.

None of this may matter at all. For all we know UNI loses 2 of the final 4 and we all look dumb for wasting time on this discussion.

UNI might be 4-2 against the FCS. So is UND and YSU...but both of them are 0-1 against UNI.

UNI has the bad loss (which I've already pointed out doesn't make logical sense when using the reasoning for the NDSU boost for the UxDs) and somehow losing to WSU means a minimum of 10 spots in a poll compared to beating ****ing Valpo or Drake.

[Pards Rule]

Someone that parses this stuff told me that as of today Lafayette would be in first round vs UT - Chatty or Florida A&M

[Professor Chaos]

Someone that parses this stuff told me that as of today Lafayette would be in first round vs UT - Chatty or Florida A&M
First round matchups between unseeded teams are pure shots in the dark especially at this point. The best gauge for unseeded matchups is to look for playoff teams within 400 miles of Lafayette since that is the threshold for bus vs air travel and they try to maximize bus trips. Both or those are outside of that for Lafayette (and FAMU is in line for the Celebration Bowl right now anyway) so seems unlikely since there should be plenty of other unseeded teams within 400 miles of Easton, PA.

[taper]

Someone that parses this stuff told me that as of today Lafayette would be in first round vs UT - Chatty or Florida A&M
FAMU is almost certainly going to the Celebration Bowl, and if they manage to lose enough games to miss that they're not getting a playoff at-large.

[caribbeanhen]

FAMU is almost certainly going to the Celebration Bowl, and if they manage to lose enough games to miss that they're not getting a playoff at-large.

FAMU totally flunked the eye test this past Saturday

Harvard would beat them

[Sitting Bull]

6. The CAA is a mess. Delaware looks the best, but as some sneaky tough matchups coming up @Towson, Elon, @Campbell and Villanova. 2-2 gets them into the field, but that Nova game is a war. Richmond is hot, but have Campbell, Elon and WM left, and may need to win all 3. ELON would be eliminated next week losing to Delaware. Nova has to beat either UNH or Delaware to get in. WM may be in the same boat UNH is in after losing to Towson -- may have to win out and travel to Albany and host Richmond. UAlbany is in great shape; relatively easy schedule, played an extra game. I think the CAA is an easy two bid league with Albany and Delaware, the question is if anyone can get in a third and fourth spot. If the bubble isn't soft enough it may be a two bid league.

From W&M perspective, it’s pretty cut/dry. You either win your last four games - which would include UAlbany and Richmond - finish 8-3 and you’re in. Lose any of the remaining 4 games, you’re out.

[crusader11]

From W&M perspective, it’s pretty cut/dry. You either win your last four games - which would include UAlbany and Richmond - finish 8-3 and you’re in. Lose any of the remaining 4 games, you’re out.

Same goes for Holy Cross. Win the last four (two of which would hopefully be considered "good" wins in Fordham and Army) and I think they'll find themselves on the right side of the bubble. But, I could very easily see them being in the "last two out" category.

[Houndawg]

I haven't propped them up. I've asked why UNI should be punished for a Weber game in week ****ing 2 and it's because "Weber Bad". Fine. Week 2 means as much/more than Week 8-12 now. Again, look past the score and it was a 1 score game with 5 minutes left. UNI pressed late and it back fired. It happens. It is what it is. I've not tried to spin it as a good win. Hell, in your own post you are somehow spinning NAU as a good win because they beat Montana in week 4 or whenever it was while saying Weber would be a bad win no matter what because their record is bad. What kind of weird transitional property idea is that? Bad is bad is bad.

I'm saying UNI gets punished in ways and proportions that others won't but also they get rewarded in direct proportion in ways they shouldnt to UNI losing. Why is beating Drake or Valpo worth an extra 10 slots in the polls, especially when you've beat that team head to head?

This may be true, but I recall talk here by folks in other seasons that were bent out of shape by what they perceived as UNI getting consideration from the committee based on past reputation rather than current body of work.

[MSUBobcat]

This may be true, but I recall talk here by folks in other seasons that were bent out of shape by what they perceived as UNI getting consideration from the committee based on past reputation rather than current body of work.

I could be remembering incorrectly, but I seem to remember more than one year where around this time of year, Clenz himself is saying, "WTF is still ranking 2-3/2-4 UNI!?!" Anyone else remember this, or am I completely out to lunch on this?

That said, the AGS poll having UND at #16 band UNI way down at #24 is pretty hard to understand. I'm not saying flip flop their positions, but UND farther down and UNI a spot or 2 above them seems to make way more sense.

[clenz]

I could be remembering incorrectly, but I seem to remember more than one year where around this time of year, Clenz himself is saying, "WTF is still ranking 2-3/2-4 UNI!?!" Anyone else remember this, or am I completely out to lunch on this?

That said, the AGS poll having UND at #16 band UNI way down at #24 is pretty hard to understand. I'm not saying flip flop their positions, but UND farther down and UNI a spot or 2 above them seems to make way more sense.
UNI hasn't been ranked in the top 5 since...I'd guess...October 2013 at the very most recent.

Started that year 4-0 and beat #6 (and ended up being seeded) McNeese by 40. Then lost half the starters to injuries and 5 straight games - 4 in a row in OT or double OT.

Also, if that's something I was saying (and it's entirely possible) it goes to show I'm not a "rank UNI because bias" guy. I don't tell people "UNI should be ranked". Rank them or don't. I don't care. My issue always is, and has been, be consistent. The same is true when I had the time to properly watch and vote in the AGS Poll. I was active in that thread every week questioning logic for team A but not Team C or F and then using the same logic that you use for A against B and D.

I do it because so many here, and national guys, think they are putting in a ton of effort but still just end up slot voting and defaulting to "Well I had this team ranked here and that team ranked there and that result means this team has to go down because loss and this team has to go up beacuse win" which ignores everything else around the game, the results, around them, etc.

Listen, I get/understand many of the points made. To an extent I'll agree with most of them. I'm simply challenging people with the example I'm most familiar with this year (because I legit haven't had time to watch a bunch of football this fall) using logic that doesn't hold up once it's forced to be applied through the rankings.

If someone doesn't think UNI should be ranked? Fine. I don't care about a number next to UNI's name. I "care" that the logic used to keep UNI (or anyone) out or below others, or discredit wins (actual words used), etc. is applied across the board or what you submit as a ranking for a poll instantly becomes massively flawed.

[Preferred Walk-On]

UNI hasn't been ranked in the top 5 since...I'd guess...October 2013 at the very most recent.

Started that year 4-0 and beat #6 (and ended up being seeded) McNeese by 40. Then lost half the starters to injuries and 5 straight games - 4 in a row in OT or double OT.

Also, if that's something I was saying (and it's entirely possible) it goes to show I'm not a "rank UNI because bias" guy. I don't tell people "UNI should be ranked". Rank them or don't. I don't care. My issue always is, and has been, be consistent. The same is true when I had the time to properly watch and vote in the AGS Poll. I was active in that thread every week questioning logic for team A but not Team C or F and then using the same logic that you use for A against B and D.

I do it because so many here, and national guys, think they are putting in a ton of effort but still just end up slot voting and defaulting to "Well I had this team ranked here and that team ranked there and that result means this team has to go down because loss and this team has to go up beacuse win" which ignores everything else around the game, the results, around them, etc.

Listen, I get/understand many of the points made. To an extent I'll agree with most of them. I'm simply challenging people with the example I'm most familiar with this year (because I legit haven't had time to watch a bunch of football this fall) using logic that doesn't hold up once it's forced to be applied through the rankings.

If someone doesn't think UNI should be ranked? Fine. I don't care about a number next to UNI's name. I "care" that the logic used to keep UNI (or anyone) out or below others, or discredit wins (actual words used), etc. is applied across the board or what you submit as a ranking for a poll instantly becomes massively flawed.

clenz, I am not trying to get in any p***ing match with you, but I would be curious as to your answer to these questions: If the majority (or heck, even many) voters are not consistent, and their poll submission is massively flawed, then (1) "Do you think the AGS Poll is any good?", and (2) "Is it better/worse than STATS, Coaches, insert other FCS site polls here (Reddit, Nation, etc.) and why?"

Could it be better? Others on here would argue that you are preaching to the choir regarding UNI, but that it applies to their team (Mercer, Furman, New Hampshire, even Sam Houston over the last decade+ they were in the FCS come to mind).

I am definitely open to suggestions on how to better apply that consistency you are talking about (is there a less subjective way to do so more easily?).

[SteelSD]

I love the transitive discussions raging here.

By this logic we know that UNI > UND > NAU > WSU > UNI > UND > WSU > UNI...

Football is stupid sometimes.

[WrenFGun]

Same goes for Holy Cross. Win the last four (two of which would hopefully be considered "good" wins in Fordham and Army) and I think they'll find themselves on the right side of the bubble. But, I could very easily see them being in the "last two out" category.

IMO, if HC beats Army, they should be in. 8-3 with a win over Fordham, an FBS win, and super tight losses to Harvard, Lafayette and BC. Tall order, though. Given the PL track record, still wouldn't surprise me if they win the conference.

[WrenFGun]

For reference, from me, I actually have UNI as one of the most likely 7-4 teams to make the field [after SIU]. There only problem is that Weber State loss looks way less good than we thought it would [who'd have thought that 3-5 Weber State and 3-4 Towson would have about as much cache?]

If you get to 7-4 in the MVFC, I think generally you're a real good bet to be in. The problem that UNI faces is really their next game at Illinois State. It's at home, and they have to have it given they'd fall to 2-3 in the MVFC and be a 4 FCS loss team with a loss with a close at a likely desperate North Dakota team.

If Illinois State beats UNI, it means UNI is going to have to beat an NDSU team that might be playing for the playoffs in the final week of the season. Not a spot I'd want to be in.

--

I think the real problem with the MVFC right now is that these are the "probable outcomes for relevant teams:"

UNI -- @ISU-r, NDSU at home. Maybe they're the odds on favorite to beat NDSU at home? I don't know, I think projections would have UNI losing both games and out at 6-5.
ISU-R -- if ISU leaps UNI, they have to go to North Dakota in the finale to clinch a berth. I don't like this team getting in at 7-4 with no good wins and a non-conf loss to EIU with no FBS games.
Youngstown -- I think they just need to win their non SDSU games and they'll be in. 7-4 with wins over ISU-R and SIU.
NDSU -- this team could be in real, real trouble -- are they a playoff team with four FCS losses and having lost 2 of 3? I have to imagine UNI/NDSU is a playoff game.
UND -- If it's relevant, the ISU-R game at the end of the year may be an elimination game, particularly if they lose at South Dakota.

In short, something has to give here. USD, SIU, SDSU and YSU feel like a safe 4 from the MVFC, and I think one other team will get in. These teams play so many games against each other that it may be hard to get to 7-4 for any of them.

[Professor Chaos]

For reference, from me, I actually have UNI as one of the most likely 7-4 teams to make the field [after SIU]. There only problem is that Weber State loss looks way less good than we thought it would [who'd have thought that 3-5 Weber State and 3-4 Towson would have about as much cache?]

If you get to 7-4 in the MVFC, I think generally you're a real good bet to be in. The problem that UNI faces is really their next game at Illinois State. It's at home, and they have to have it given they'd fall to 2-3 in the MVFC and be a 4 FCS loss team with a loss with a close at a likely desperate North Dakota team.

If Illinois State beats UNI, it means UNI is going to have to beat an NDSU team that might be playing for the playoffs in the final week of the season. Not a spot I'd want to be in.

--

I think the real problem with the MVFC right now is that these are the "probable outcomes for relevant teams:"

UNI -- @ISU-r, NDSU at home. Maybe they're the odds on favorite to beat NDSU at home? I don't know, I think projections would have UNI losing both games and out at 6-5.
ISU-R -- if ISU leaps UNI, they have to go to North Dakota in the finale to clinch a berth. I don't like this team getting in at 7-4 with no good wins and a non-conf loss to EIU with no FBS games.
Youngstown -- I think they just need to win their non SDSU games and they'll be in. 7-4 with wins over ISU-R and SIU.
NDSU -- this team could be in real, real trouble -- are they a playoff team with four FCS losses and having lost 2 of 3? I have to imagine UNI/NDSU is a playoff game.
UND -- If it's relevant, the ISU-R game at the end of the year may be an elimination game, particularly if they lose at South Dakota.

In short, something has to give here. USD, SIU, SDSU and YSU feel like a safe 4 from the MVFC, and I think one other team will get in. These teams play so many games against each other that it may be hard to get to 7-4 for any of them.
I think either UNI or NDSU is in at 7-4 so unless they're both coming into that last game at 6-4 it won't be a playoff game. We'll see but I don't think Illinois St or Missouri St hangs in the playoff picture to Selection Sunday but either could be a spoiler knocking another MVFC down to 6-5 which seems like it always happens multiple times year after year in this conference.

[caribbeanhen]

As always Professor thanks for taking the time to put this outstanding prognosis report out

[BeamMeUp]

For reference, from me, I actually have UNI as one of the most likely 7-4 teams to make the field [after SIU]. There only problem is that Weber State loss looks way less good than we thought it would [who'd have thought that 3-5 Weber State and 3-4 Towson would have about as much cache?]

If you get to 7-4 in the MVFC, I think generally you're a real good bet to be in. The problem that UNI faces is really their next game at Illinois State. It's at home, and they have to have it given they'd fall to 2-3 in the MVFC and be a 4 FCS loss team with a loss with a close at a likely desperate North Dakota team.

If Illinois State beats UNI, it means UNI is going to have to beat an NDSU team that might be playing for the playoffs in the final week of the season. Not a spot I'd want to be in.

--

I think the real problem with the MVFC right now is that these are the "probable outcomes for relevant teams:"

UNI -- @ISU-r, NDSU at home. Maybe they're the odds on favorite to beat NDSU at home? I don't know, I think projections would have UNI losing both games and out at 6-5.
ISU-R -- if ISU leaps UNI, they have to go to North Dakota in the finale to clinch a berth. I don't like this team getting in at 7-4 with no good wins and a non-conf loss to EIU with no FBS games.
Youngstown -- I think they just need to win their non SDSU games and they'll be in. 7-4 with wins over ISU-R and SIU.
NDSU -- this team could be in real, real trouble -- are they a playoff team with four FCS losses and having lost 2 of 3? I have to imagine UNI/NDSU is a playoff game.
UND -- If it's relevant, the ISU-R game at the end of the year may be an elimination game, particularly if they lose at South Dakota.

In short, something has to give here. USD, SIU, SDSU and YSU feel like a safe 4 from the MVFC, and I think one other team will get in. These teams play so many games against each other that it may be hard to get to 7-4 for any of them.

After last season, you are more optimistic than any fan in Youngstown of YSU's chances at 7-4, especially considering there could be 6-7 MVFC teams with 7 wins at the end of the year.

However, this year we would have a stronger resume.... but at 7-4, you better give SDSU a battle at the Ice Castle.

[ysubigred]

clenz, I am not trying to get in any p***ing match with you, but I would be curious as to your answer to these questions: If the majority (or heck, even many) voters are not consistent, and their poll submission is massively flawed, then (1) "Do you think the AGS Poll is any good?", and (2) "Is it better/worse than STATS, Coaches, insert other FCS site polls here (Reddit, Nation, etc.) and why?"

Could it be better? Others on here would argue that you are preaching to the choir regarding UNI, but that it applies to their team (Mercer, Furman, New Hampshire, even Sam Houston over the last decade+ they were in the FCS come to mind).

I am definitely open to suggestions on how to better apply that consistency you are talking about (is there a less subjective way to do so more easily?).LOL.. Ole clenz has YSUDS so bad he can't help himself.. puni is in at 6-5. The committee loves rewarding choke artists.. just baffles the **** out of me how uni usually breezes the MVFC but gets its ass handed to them in the playoffs..
YSU is a bit opposite. Let the flightless birds in, and we'll go a few rounds..

Great time of the year..

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

[TrooperCoats]

Not my fight, but it seems like the missing logic here is saying everyone has to hold to Massey predictions except UNI, who gets to count a W what is currently a 30% win. By that same logic, USD's only loss will be SDSU plus NDSU beats SDSU (and UNI, FWIW) so there is a 3 way tie for the conference title. I think you either have to go with the Massey predictions (don't cherry pick) or what you have seen so far this year.

I really don't understand Massey right now - NDSU #3? SIU #4? Is that still pulling in last year's info?

From OP:
Trending towards in
USD 6-1 (4-0) [1.81/2.19] - SDSU (9%), @SIU (28%), UND (49%), @WIU (95%)
SIU 5-2 (2-2) [2.86/1.14] - @WIU (97%), USD (72%), @NDSU (18%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 4-3 (2-2) [3.06/0.94] - Indiana St (96%, @Murray St (90%), @USD (51%), Illinois St (70%)
NDSU 5-2 (2-2) [2.83/1.17] - Murray St (99%), @SDSU (31%), SIU (82%), @UNI (70%)

Work left do to
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [2.47/1.53] - Missouri St (60%), @Indiana St (86%), SDSU (19%), @Murray St (83%)
UNI 4-3 (3-1) [2.45/1.55] - @Illinois St (60%), WIU (97%), @Missouri St (58%), NDSU (30%)

[Professor Chaos]

Not my fight, but it seems like the missing logic here is saying everyone has to hold to Massey predictions except UNI, who gets to count a W what is currently a 30% win. By that same logic, USD's only loss will be SDSU plus NDSU beats SDSU (and UNI, FWIW) so there is a 3 way tie for the conference title. I think you either have to go with the Massey predictions (don't cherry pick) or what you have seen so far this year.

I really don't understand Massey right now - NDSU #3? SIU #4? Is that still pulling in last year's info?

From OP:
Trending towards in
USD 6-1 (4-0) [1.81/2.19] - SDSU (9%), @SIU (28%), UND (49%), @WIU (95%)
SIU 5-2 (2-2) [2.86/1.14] - @WIU (97%), USD (72%), @NDSU (18%), Indiana St (99%)
UND 4-3 (2-2) [3.06/0.94] - Indiana St (96%, @Murray St (90%), @USD (51%), Illinois St (70%)
NDSU 5-2 (2-2) [2.83/1.17] - Murray St (99%), @SDSU (31%), SIU (82%), @UNI (70%)

Work left do to
YSU 4-3 (2-2) [2.47/1.53] - Missouri St (60%), @Indiana St (86%), SDSU (19%), @Murray St (83%)
UNI 4-3 (3-1) [2.45/1.55] - @Illinois St (60%), WIU (97%), @Missouri St (58%), NDSU (30%)



Huh??? Using Massey per game projections UNI beats ISUr, WIU, and Missouri St and loses to NDSU which puts them at 7-4 (6-2).

[TrooperCoats]

Huh??? Using Massey per game projections UNI beats ISUr, WIU, and Missouri St and loses to NDSU which puts them at 7-4 (6-2).

Right - but clenz kept coming back to UNI beating NDSU (and not getting as much credit as USD/UND) as well how they would have a 7-1 record in MVFC. That is legit confusing.

[Professor Chaos]

Right - but clenz kept coming back to UNI beating NDSU (and not getting as much credit as USD/UND) as well how they would have a 7-1 record in MVFC. That is legit confusing.
It's all hypothetical so you can used whatever factors you want to project the remaining games. I used the Massey percentages but that doesn't mean everybody else has to. I'd agree that Massey's rating seem to overvalue NDSU and undervalue USD based on the poll consensus but we'll see who's right or wrong by the time playoff selections roll around.

[Pards Rule]

IMO, if HC beats Army, they should be in. 8-3 with a win over Fordham, an FBS win, and super tight losses to Harvard, Lafayette and BC. Tall order, though. Given the PL track record, still wouldn't surprise me if they win the conference.

Wren, do you think we can revive the Pard-UNH thread? It IS celebtating its 10 anniversary this year. Would be WAY more interesting than the 2013 game as we were a mediocre team. and WHO was that Youngstown poster on here back in 2005 that was bitching Pards got the at large over them? Well my friend, I dont think you would have done anywhere near as well as we did in that App State game!

[ysubigred]

Wren, do you think we can revive the Pard-UNH thread? It IS celebtating its 10 anniversary this year. Would be WAY more interesting than the 2013 game as we were a mediocre team. and WHO was that Youngstown poster on here back in 2005 that was bitching Pards got the at large over them? Well my friend, I dont think you would have done anywhere near as well as we did in that App State game!I'm not sure what YSU poster that was, but even a blind dog can hunt.. let's have a ring count or championship game appearance count or even playoff win count..

I thought so..

Carry on xsalutex

Sent from my SM-G990U using Tapatalk

[clenz]

Can’t ****ing wait for this ISUb UND game to be spin as a gutty win for UnD if they even come back to win while UNI ISUb still gets spin as a struggle and seeing UND ahead of UNI still.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[clenz]

Does USD get destroyed in voting the same way UNI is for getting stomped by SDSU?

I bet not.


It’s not been a good weekend for the double standard against UNI havers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JacksFan40]

UND avoids the upset and wins 36-33 in OT. UND has to win 2 of the remaining 3 for a shot at the playoffs. With how they played today they will struggle with Murray next week.

- - - Updated - - -


Does USD get destroyed in voting the same way UNI is for getting stomped by SDSU?

I bet not.


It’s not been a good weekend for the double standard against UNI havers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
USD will drop after today, far more embarrassing loss for them compared to UNI.

[BeamMeUp]

UND avoids the upset and wins 36-33 in OT. UND has to win 2 of the remaining 3 for a shot at the playoffs. With how they played today they will struggle with Murray next week.

- - - Updated - - -


USD will drop after today, far more embarrassing loss for them compared to UNI.
The way UND is playing down the stretch, they are doing themselves no favors if they end up at 7-4... Clenz --- would def move UNI and YSU ahead of UND at this point.

[JacksFan40]

Idaho upsets Montana State 24-21 in Moscow!

I assume Furman moves to #2 despite the rough win over ETSU?

[grizband]

Idaho upsets Montana State 24-21 in Moscow!

I assume Furman moves to #2 despite the rough win over ETSU?
Does Delaware also have an argument for #2?

[atthewbon]

Does Delaware also have an argument for #2?

Or Idaho? I think you could make an argument for all 3. Also how fall does Montana State fall?

[atthewbon]

Chattanooga's close win vs VMI won't help their resume on the bubble if they end up losing to Furman and Alabama. IDK if they get in at 7-4 if that happens. The loss to North Alabama hurts.

[JacksFan40]

Does Delaware also have an argument for #2?
The case could be made for Delaware over Furman. Both have their only loss being against P5 teams, but Delaware’s was against top 10 Penn State while Furman’s was against a South Carolina team that’ll be lucky to win 4 games. Delaware has also been more convincing in their FCS wins.

[FU_Paladin08]

Delaware isn’t exactly playing against top teams. I’m not saying Furman is either, but let’s cool the leap frogging in the standings for now. To send Idaho all the way to #2 would be incredibly bold.

[Professor Chaos]

Furman is seeded over Delaware easily IMO if they both finish 10-1. Unlike Delaware Furman plays all the other top teams in their conference and the SOCON might be stronger than the CAA this year anyway so wins over WCU, Mercer, and Chatty (who they play next week) gives them the edge over Delaware whose best win would be over Villanova (who they still have to play and have not done well against lately).

I'd also say don't rule out Montana if they finish 10-1 which would include wins over Idaho, Sac St, and Montana St (the latter two they still have to play - but both at home) since they would probably get the nod over either Furman or Delaware in that scenario.

[FU_Paladin08]

Yes. That Montana scenario is real if they win out.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Yes. That Montana scenario is real if they win out.

There's the TV influence too. Montana provides great theater....

[atthewbon]

While I think Furman and Delaware should be seeded over Idaho if it ended right now. I think Idaho is the better team and wins on a neutral field. Idk how I’ll order them in my rankings…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bonarae]

My first playoff-related post this season.... not by any means but this is my first meaningful one related to the playoffs. If the playoffs start in Week 12 or at its usual place in Week 13, who are the teams definitely in or are in the bubble? After Week 9, here is what I believe:

For me, these are the magic teams from the East:
Delaware
Richmond
Villanova
UAlbany
Lafayette
UTC
Furman
Davidson
Duquesne
Austin Peay

Bubble teams:
W&M
Mercer
UNH
WCU (can be in, or are they currently in the bubble ATM?)
EKU
UT Martin (can be in)
Tennessee State
Holy Cross
YSU

West of the Mississippi River FCS Playoff Teams:
SDSU
USD
Idaho
Montana State
Sacramento State
Montana
SEMO
UIW

Bubble:
UCA
Drake
UNI
SIU
NDSU (if they lose out, goodbye playoffs, good riddance for the playoff field this season according to us fans?)
Nicholls

Note about the PFL: Davidson won't play Drake this season. Both have 1 D-II/NAIA loss. It is up to the committee who will make the cut from the league though.

I can only count 18 sure playoff teams ATM. Next Saturday, we will see further separation of the sure and bubble teams.

Celebration Bowl Participants (bonus prediction): NC Central vs. FAMU
SWAC Championship Game Participants: Alcorn vs. FAMU

[MR. CHICKEN]

WHAT 'BOUT TARLETON STATE?......6-3....WHIFF SFA/ABILENE TA GO....WIN OVERAH C. ARKANSAS......2OT LOSS TA E. KENTUCKY......HIGH SCORIN' WIN OVERAH....N. ALABAMA......WHOM PASTED CHATTANOOGA.......AWK!

[MR. CHICKEN]

There's the TV influence too. Montana provides great theater....


....WATCHIN' MONTE...FALL OFF HIS ATV.......IS ALWAYS EXCITIN'........PLENTY UH GRIZZWALD'S....IN DUH STANDS.....AWK!

[bonarae]

WHAT 'BOUT TARLETON STATE?......6-3....WHIFF SFA/ABILENE TA GO....WIN OVERAH C. ARKANSAS......2OT LOSS TA E. KENTUCKY......HIGH SCORIN' WIN OVERAH....N. ALABAMA......WHOM PASTED CHATTANOOGA.......AWK!

Tarleton is not yet eligible, so I didn't count them in.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Tarleton is not yet eligible, so I didn't count them in.

OOOPZ!.......xembarrassedx

[NY Crusader 2010]

Chattanooga's close win vs VMI won't help their resume on the bubble if they end up losing to Furman and Alabama. IDK if they get in at 7-4 if that happens. The loss to North Alabama hurts.

I have them as a solid IN if they beat Alabama.

[MR. CHICKEN]

I have them as a solid IN if they beat Alabama.

.........THEY BEAT ALABAMA...FCS PLAY-OFFS ARE OVER.......AN' S. DAKOTA STATE...IS RUNNER-UP!

[BeamMeUp]

I have them as a solid IN if they beat Alabama.

Excellent analysis. I agree!

[Houndawg]

My first playoff-related post this season.... not by any means but this is my first meaningful one related to the playoffs. If the playoffs start in Week 12 or at its usual place in Week 13, who are the teams definitely in or are in the bubble? After Week 9, here is what I believe:

For me, these are the magic teams from the East:
Delaware
Richmond
Villanova
UAlbany
Lafayette
UTC
Furman
Davidson
Duquesne
Austin Peay

Bubble teams:
W&M
Mercer
UNH
WCU (can be in, or are they currently in the bubble ATM?)
EKU
UT Martin (can be in)
Tennessee State
Holy Cross
YSU

West of the Mississippi River FCS Playoff Teams:
SDSU
USD
Idaho
Montana State
Sacramento State
Montana
SEMO
UIW

Bubble:
UCA
Drake
UNI
SIU
NDSU (if they lose out, goodbye playoffs, good riddance for the playoff field this season according to us fans?)
Nicholls

Note about the PFL: Davidson won't play Drake this season. Both have 1 D-II/NAIA loss. It is up to the committee who will make the cut from the league though.

I can only count 18 sure playoff teams ATM. Next Saturday, we will see further separation of the sure and bubble teams.

Celebration Bowl Participants (bonus prediction): NC Central vs. FAMU
SWAC Championship Game Participants: Alcorn vs. FAMU

SIU is east of the Mississppi River. Carry on.

[caribbeanhen]

SIU is east of the Mississppi River. Carry on.

Pioneer ? How bout neither

[jacksfan29!]

SIU is east of the Mississppi River. Carry on.

If SIU win out, they deserve a seed. FBS win, loss to SDSU, they would have wins over USD and NDSU. The loss to YSU hurts, but still a top 8 resume.

[Professor Chaos]

If SIU win out, they deserve a seed. FBS win, loss to SDSU, they would have wins over USD and NDSU. The loss to YSU hurts, but still a top 8 resume.
Any MVFC team that gets to 9-2 is a lock for a seed - might even get up the 4-5 range depending on how the Big Sky shakes out these last 3 weeks.

[clenz]

Looking at poll ballots from national guys that have been put out so far and, shockingly, I was 100% correct on the double standard with USD/UND and UNI

I don’t want to say I told you so….but….


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk