SoCon 2023 Predictions and Power Rankings - Week 8

[wcugrad95]

We have a WCU vs Furman thread, but figured we needed to talk about the rest of the games :)




Away
Home
Time
Location




https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30East Tennessee State University (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chattanooga (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1:00 P.M.

Chattanooga, Tenn. (Conf.)




https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30 P.M.

Lexington, Va. (Conf.)




https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30Western Carolina (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:30 P.M.

Cullowhee, N.C. (Conf.)




https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
4:00 P.M.

Macon, Ga. (Conf.)

[Mocs123]

Samford -35 – A good game between two teams in the middle of the SoCon, but in the end I think the Bulldogs have too many weapons and get the win in Lexington.
VMI -17

ETSU - 21
Chattanooga -28 – This is a rivalry game and ETSU will bring their A game no matter their record, though in the end I think the Mocs are a stronger team and pull out the win to keep the Rail in the Scenic City.

Furman - 31
Western Carolina -34 – Game of the Week – This should be a great game between two of the top teams in the SoCon. I’ll take the home team by the thinnest of margins.

Wofford -10
Mercer – 31 – Wofford’s D is pretty good, but so is Mercer. The Bears are mad, so I think they win by multiple scores at home.


Power Rankings


Furman – If I were FUBeAR, I’d do a 1A and 1B but I’ll just say that the margin between #1 and #2 on my list is razor thin, and I thought about moving WCU up to #1, but they were on a Bye week and it seems unfair to move Furman down a spot after a win.
Western Carolina – So close to getting the top spot in the SoCon in nearly 40 years
Chattanooga – The Mocs got by the first week of their do or die pre-playoff run.
Mercer - Strong team flying under the radar
Samford – Talented team that is looking to ruin someone’s season
ETSU – Got their first D1 win of the season in a big way, did the Bucs find their QB?
VMI – The Keydets won the Silver Shako, have a winning record in the SoCon, and still have a chance to get 8 D1 wins….but the back half of their schedule is brutal and it starts this week.
Wofford – Can the Terriers get a win this year…..they have to be looking forward to November 11th.
The Citadel – Can the bellhops get a win this year…..they also have to be looking forward to the 11th.


As a Mocs fan, I will be pulling for the Paladins this Saturday as we need someone to give WCU a loss - of course that only helps if we're able to win out the rest of our games which won't be easy. This is a rivalry game with ETSU, VMI has had our number the past few years, and of course Furman will be a huge test.

[bonarae]

UTC
Samford
WCU - GOTW candidate
Mercer

[OrangeAndBlack]

Mercer is still stuck in the eternal "middle" of the SoCon. The same script this year: Blow out the bad teams, and lose or get blown out by the good teams. Mercer has now lost 5 straight "big games" since last season. 1 more "big game" left this year on the road at WCU. 1 more kinda big game against Samford, depending how they finish.


UTC
Samford
Mercer
Furman -- I'll pick Furman against anyone until they show me not to.

[The Cats]

Chattanooga
Samford
Western Carolina
Mercer


Power Ranking

1. (1) Western Carolina (5-1, 3-0 SoCon)
Next: Furman (5-1, 3-0 SoCon)

2. (2) Furman (5-1, 3-0 SoCon)
Next: at Western Carolina (5-1, 3-0 SoCon)

3. (3) Chattanooga (5-2, 4-1 SoCon)
Next: ETSU (2-4, 1-2 SoCon)

4. (4) Samford (3-4, 2-3 SoCon)
Next: at VMI (3-3, 2-1 SoCon)

5. (5) Mercer (4-3, 2-2 SoCon)
Next: Wofford (0-7, 0-4 SoCon)

6. (7) ETSU (2-4, 1-2 SoCon)
Next: at Chattanooga (5-2, 4-1 SoCon)

7. (6) VMI (3-3, 2-1 SoCon)
Next: Samford (3-4, 2-3 SoCon)

8. (8) The Citadel (0-6, 0-3 SoCon)
Next: Bye

9. (9) Wofford (0-7, 0-4 SoCon)
Next: at Mercer (4-3, 2-2 SoCon)

[FU_Paladin08]

Furman over Western: it will be nice to get some clarity on the top 2 spots. I think Western will get their yards but Furman defense will get the game ball with key stops.


Chatty over ETSU: 3rd best team in the SoCon will win.


Samford over VMI: Sammy wins easily. They’re building momentum, just too late in the season to matter.


Mercer over Woffy: I don’t know. Mercer is better.


1) Furman
2) WCU
3) UTC
4) Mercer
5) Sammy
6) VMI
7) ETSU
8) Woffy
9) Citadel

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR was a-wonderin’ ‘bout some things, so he researched & compiled some data. Then he did some analysis of the data. Then he built a kinda sorta model using the analyzed data to form a fairly rudimentary projection of future results based on past performance. FUBeAR prolly shoulda weighted this model to apply more projecting heft to Samford and CIT, but he didn’t. FUBeAR has some thoughts on what the model tells him…but as Steve McCroskey once queried of Johnny, FUBeAR would like to know from y’all…


https://youtu.be/L8oAQOvOEXY?feature=shared




WCU DEFENSE














WCU Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Arkansas
105
110
-5
95%
274
211
63
130%
379
321
58
118%


Samford
35
116
-81
30%
315
305
10
103%
350
421
-71
83%


EKU
143
187
-44
76%
366
245
121
149%
509
432
77
118%


Chas Sou
141
101
40
140%
82
111
-29
74%
223
212
11
105%


CIT
123
113
10
109%
103
89
14
116%
226
202
24
112%


Chatt
144
144
0
100%
399
288
111
139%
543
432
111
126%


Averages
115
128
-13
90%
256
208
48
123%
372
337
35
110%


Furman Off (projection1)
160
178
-18

244
198
46

403
376
27


















FURMAN DEFENSE














Furman Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Tenn Tech
79
133
-54
59%
212
177
35
120%
291
310
-19
94%


S. Carolina
108
98
10
110%
463
312
151
148%
571
410
161
139%


Kennesaw
182
148
34
123%
308
174
134
177%
490
322
168
152%


Mercer
144
137
7
105%
123
194
-71
63%
267
331
-64
81%


CIT
39
113
-74
35%
239
89
150
269%
278
202
76
138%


Samford
46
116
-70
40%
291
305
-14
95%
337
421
-84
80%


Averages
100
124
-24
80%
273
208
64
131%
372
333
40
112%


WCU Off (projection1)
178
222
-44

405
310
95

584
532
52
















































WCU OFFENSE














WCU Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Arkansas
64
133
-69
48%
227
218
9
104%
291
351
-60
83%


Samford
284
173
111
164%
262
222
40
118%
546
395
151
138%


EKU
211
178
33
119%
340
345
-5
99%
551
523
28
105%


Chas Sou
237
178
59
133%
446
259
187
172%
683
437
246
156%


CIT
261
215
46
121%
308
293
15
105%
569
508
61
112%


Chatt
275
148
127
186%
276
218
58
127%
551
366
185
151%


Averages
222
171
51
139%
310
259
51
120%
532
430
102
124%


vs. Furman Def (projection2)
130
100
30

326
273
53

456
373
83


















FURMAN OFFENSE














Furman Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Tenn Tech
194
147
47
132%
190
167
23
114%
384
314
70
122%


S. Carolina
80
130
-50
62%
243
322
-79
75%
323
452
-129
71%


Kennesaw
159
141
18
113%
237
198
39
120%
396
339
57
117%


Mercer
222
123
99
180%
165
205
-40
80%
387
328
59
118%


CIT
199
215
-16
93%
146
293
-147
50%
345
508
-163
68%


Samford
211
173
38
122%
205
222
-17
92%
416
395
21
105%


Averages
177
155
23
115%
198
234
-37
84%
375
389
-14
96%


vs. WCU Def (projection2)
134
117
17

217
257
-40

351
374
-23



















Rush Yds



Passing Yds



Total Yds





Furman Off1 vs. WCU DEF
160



244



403





Furman OFF2 vs. WCU Def
134



217



351





Furman OFF Projection
147



230



377
Furman Projected vs. WCU













375
Furman Average













101%
Slight overperform





















Rush Yds



Passing Yds



Total Yds





WCU Off1 vs. Furman DEF
178



405



584





WCU OFF2 vs. Furman Def
130



326



456





WCU OFF Projection
154



366



520
WCU projected vs. Furman













532
WCU Average













98%
Slight underperform

[Milktruck74]

FUBeAR was a-wonderin’ ‘bout some things, so he researched & compiled some data. Then he did some analysis of the data. Then he built a kinda sorta model using the analyzed data to form a fairly rudimentary projection of future results based on past performance. FUBeAR prolly shoulda weighted this model to apply more projecting heft to Samford and CIT, but he didn’t. FUBeAR has some thoughts on what the model tells him…but as Steve McCroskey once queried of Johnny, FUBeAR would like to know from y’all…


https://youtu.be/L8oAQOvOEXY?feature=shared






WCU DEFENSE














WCU Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Arkansas
105
110
-5
95%
274
211
63
130%
379
321
58
118.07%


Samford
35
116
-81
30%
315
305
10
103%
350
421
-71
83.14%


EKU
143
187
-44
76%
366
245
121
149%
509
432
77
117.82%


Chas Sou
141
101
40
140%
82
111
-29
74%
223
212
11
105.19%


CIT
123
113
10
109%
103
89
14
116%
226
202
24
111.88%


Chatt
144
144
0
100%
399
288
111
139%
543
432
111
126%


Averages
115
128
-13
90%
256
208
48
123%
372
337
35
110%


Furman Off (projection1)
160
178
-18

244
198
46

403
376
27


















FURMAN DEFENSE














Furman Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Tenn Tech
79
133
-54
59%
212
177
35
120%
291
310
-19
94%


South Carolina
108
98
10
110%
463
312
151
148%
571
410
161
139%


Kennesaw
182
148
34
123%
308
174
134
177%
490
322
168
152%


Mercer
144
137
7
105%
123
194
-71
63%
267
331
-64
81%


CIT
39
113
-74
35%
239
89
150
269%
278
202
76
138%


Samford
46
116
-70
40%
291
305
-14
95%
337
421
-84
80%


Averages
100
124
-24
80%
273
208
64
131%
372
333
40
112%


WCU Off (projection1)
178
222
-44

405
310
95

584
532
52
















































WCU OFFENSE














WCU Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Arkansas
64
133
-69
48%
227
218
9
104.13%
291
351
-60
83%


Samford
284
173
111
164%
262
222
40
118.02%
546
395
151
138%


EKU
211
178
33
119%
340
345
-5
99%
551
523
28
105%


Chas Sou
237
178
59
133%
446
259
187
172%
683
437
246
156%


CIT
261
215
46
121%
308
293
15
105%
569
508
61
112%


Chatt
275
148
127
186%
276
218
58
127%
551
366
185
151%


Averages
222
171
51
139%
310
259
51
120%
532
430
102
124%


vs. Furman Def (projection2)
130
100
30

326
273
53

456
373
83


















FURMAN OFFENSE














Furman Opponent
Rush Yds
Avg Rush Yds
Difference
%
Passing Yds
Avg Passing Yds
Difference
%
Total Yds
Avg Total Yds
Difference
%


Tenn Tech
194
147
47
131.97%
190
167
23
113.77%
384
314
70
122%


South Carolina
80
130
-50
61.54%
243
322
-79
75.47%
323
452
-129
71%


Kennesaw
159
141
18
113%
237
198
39
120%
396
339
57
117%


Mercer
222
123
99
180%
165
205
-40
80%
387
328
59
118%


CIT
199
215
-16
93%
146
293
-147
50%
345
508
-163
68%


Samford
211
173
38
122%
205
222
-17
92%
416
395
21
105%


Averages
177
155
23
115%
198
234
-37
84%
375
389
-14
96%


vs. WCU Def (projection2)
134
117
17

217
257
-40

351
374
-23



















Rush Yds



Passing Yds



Total Yds





Furman Off1 vs. WCU DEF
160



244



403





Furman OFF2 vs. WCU Def
134



217



351





Furman OFF Projection
147



230



377
Furman Projected vs. WCU













375
Furman Average













101%
Slight overperform





















Rush Yds



Passing Yds



Total Yds





WCU Off1 vs. Furman DEF
178



405



584





WCU OFF2 vs. Furman Def
130



326



456





WCU OFF Projection
154



366



520
WCU projected vs. Furman













532
WCU Average













98%
Slight underperform





Not sure where the data point would be included, but I think a big factor you must consider is time of possession. WCU has the ability to score on every play (be it ground or air). Furple needs to limit the touches they get. While my Mocs were absolutely an outlier on this one. The Mocs able to win the TOP battle with Western by a pretty decent margin (+20 mins), the game pretty much came down to the team with the ball last was going to win. I don't see that being an issue with Furple...but the TOP will matter. You have to get keep the ball away from Gonzo and Reid.

[FUBeAR]

Not sure where the data point would be included, but I think a big factor you must consider is time of possession. WCU has the ability to score on every play (be it ground or air). Furple needs to limit the touches they get. While my Mocs were absolutely an outlier on this one. The Mocs able to win the TOP battle with Western by a pretty decent margin (+20 mins), the game pretty much came down to the team with the ball last was going to win. I don't see that being an issue with Furple...but the TOP will matter. You have to get keep the ball away from Gonzo and Reid.
So…no thoughts on the 72 data points presented, analyzed, and rendered into a projection model?

Just a demand for alternate data / analysis / modeling?

FUBeAR ain’t your dang personal marionette, y’know!

https://i.etsystatic.com/5889065/r/il/fcbc22/3932847869/il_794xN.3932847869_7khc.jpg

[Sir William]

Chattanooga over ETSU
Samford over VMI
Furman over W Carolina
Mercer over Wofford


Power Rankings:

1) Furman
2) W Carolina
3) Chattanooga
4) Mercer
5) Samford
6) VMI
7) ETSU
8) The Citadel
9) Wofford

[wcugrad95]

I am still trying to gleen what the data points are supposed to point to? In essence it shows that both teams will get around the same number of yards they have been averaging. Last year's game between these 2 teams saw WCU actually out-perform in yards gained. Western had a ridiculous 691 yards (to Furman's 492 - so also an out-perform), and both teams scored 40+ points.

Flipping it to look at points scored vs given up against FCS teams:




Western
Furman


Avg Points Scored
47
33.8


Avg Points Given Up
23.2
17.4


Differential
23.8
16.4




So if the points are also in-line with the FUBeAR calculus (Furman slightly overperforms and WCU slightly underfperforms), I'll take it as WCU has clearly seen for the last several years that points are a lot more important than yards gained:




Western (98%)
Furman (101%)


Avg Points Scored
46.06
34.138



Of course none of that matters, but nice job digging through all of that pile of info FUBeAR. Your old math teachers (and your Stats teacher at Furman) would be proud!

[FUBeAR]

I am still trying to gleen what the data points are supposed to point to? In essence it shows that both teams will get around the same number of yards they have been averaging. Last year's game between these 2 teams saw WCU actually out-perform in yards gained. Western had a ridiculous 691 yards (to Furman's 492 - so also an out-perform), and both teams scored 40+ points.

Flipping it to look at points scored vs given up against FCS teams:




Western
Furman


Avg Points Scored
47
33.8


Avg Points Given Up
23.2
17.4


Differential
23.8
16.4




So if the points are also in-line with the FUBeAR calculus (Furman slightly overperforms and WCU slightly underfperforms), I'll take it as WCU has clearly seen for the last several years that points are a lot more important than yards gained:




Western (98%)
Furman (101%)


Avg Points Scored
46.06
34.138



Of course none of that matters, but nice job digging through all of that pile of info FUBeAR. Your old math teachers (and your Stats teacher at Furman) would be proud!
Cool...

So...a couple of 'redirects' - 1) The data points are not "supposed to point to" anything. The data is the data and it's up to us to determine what story, if any, that data may tell and what insights, if any, that data may reveal. 2) And as Coach T. Turner (RIP) might say....like "love," what's "last year" got to do with it?


You reached the same initial conclusion that FUBeAR did...Both of these Teams in terms of Their Offense vs. Opponents' Defenses and Their Defenses vs. Opponents' Offenses are performing similarly in terms of yardage output & yardage yielded (good, but, of course, not entirely dispositive, metrics) as it relates to these opponents' average output. This is a way to compare performances of O's and D's that have not faced each other...and it's predictive value increases as the difference in the strength of schedules of the 2 Teams approaches zero. Massey says WCU's SoS is 33.01 and FU's is 30.39...so WCU's is about 9% 'harder' (assuming Massey's SoS scale is linear) and that is not contemplated in this analysis. You may recognize another flaw in the analysis - it would have been better to remove the FU and WCU data from the Opponents' averages - but FUBeAR didn't feel like doing that or, as mentioned, weighting FU and WCU's common opponents more heavily for projection purposes.

Succinctly and roughly, this tells us...if both Teams' Offenses and Defenses perform at about the levels they have performed this season, then WCU will likely have ~450 - 600 yards of Offense and Furman will have ~350 - 400 yards. FUBeAR would opine that the closer each Team is to the bottom or top of that range will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. If WCU puts up 600 yards and Furman only gets 350, we can safely assume WCU will win the game and if WCU puts up 450 yards and FU gets 400, even though the Catamounts have more yards, FUBeAR thinks Furman probably wins that game.

So...you, like that scoundrel TrainSnake, MilkTruck, also are demanding that we consider different data. But...at least you did some of the work on your own...unlike that ShoeBird, MilkTruck...with your Points analysis. BUT...FUBeAR doesn't love your analysis...First of all, FUBeAR will bet there's not another Team in all of College Football this season that has thrown the ball in the end zone up by 50 with 7 seconds to play...but let's just overlook that karma-catching moment. Points are interesting. We should definitely look at those. Also....with FU and WCU both playing SEC Teams as their FBS games, there's no need to remove those data points. Finally, while Points Scored and Points Scored Against are easy-to-do, they are not as predictive as the Actual vs. Average type of analysis that FUBeAR did for yards...

So....let's do the exact same analysis for Points and see what that tells us...



WCU POINTS ALLOWED






WCU
Opponent
Points
Avg
Points
Diff
%


Arkansas
56
30
-26
187%


Samford
7
30
23
23%


EKU
24
28
4
86%


Chas Sou
21
16
-5
131%


CIT
14
9
-5
156%


Chatt
50
35
-15
143%


Averages
29
25
-4
116%


Furman Pts (projection1)
37
32
-5










FURMAN POINTS ALLOWED






Furman Opponent
Points
Avg
Points
Diff
%


Tenn Tech
10
12
2
83%


S. Carolina
47
29
-18
162%


Kennesaw
28
21
-7
133%


Mercer
14
23
9
61%


CIT
14
9
-5
156%


Samford
21
30
9
70%


Averages
22
21
-2
108%


WCU Pts (projection1)
44
41
-3
























WCU POINTS SCORED






WCU Opponent
Points
Avg
Points
Diff
%


Arkansas
13
25
-12
52%


Samford
30
29
1
103%


EKU
27
36
-9
75%


Chas Sou
77
31
46
248%


CIT
49
38
11
129%


Chatt
52
23
29
226%


Averages
41
30
11
136%


vs. Furman Pts (projection2)
30
22
8










FURMAN POINTS SCORED






Furman Opponent
Points
Avg
Points
Diff
%


Tenn Tech
45
24
21
188%


S. Carolina
21
31
-10
68%


Kennesaw
31
20
11
155%


Mercer
38
24
14
158%


CIT
28
38
-10
74%


Samford
27
30
-3
90%


Averages
32
28
4
114%


vs. WCU Pts (projection2)
33
29
4











Points





Furman Pts1 vs. WCU DEF
37





Furman PTS2 vs. WCU Def
33





Furman Points Projection
35
Furman Projected vs. WCU





32
Furman Average





110%
Overperform












Points





WCU Pts1 vs. Furman DEF
44





WCU PTS2 vs. Furman Def
30





WCU Points Projection
37
WCU projected vs. Furman





41
WCU Average





91%
Underperform





What does that tell us?

[The Cats]

What does that tell us?


Nothing.

.....or how to lie with statistics ...

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoBggtWhAoX9-m50RpW9c_Zq1EjTyGEGU2kXwIM2jSqGSYnyo0gqn7RuHFE7mS0 yXgcTPdiOzqCdepP1kimEktOwNHAVPYr7YGaV78ueE-O7inkO_GaKZm5vjMlRC8FAvkjFW4xJ9Y_tlRM8UxP2qzVXNWOC 14SxgLIYmcYwuGQM7ZvCvGJEQkJmhZbJY/w456-h688/lie%20with%20statics.jpg

[Milktruck74]

Nothing.

.....or how to lie with statistics ...

https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoBggtWhAoX9-m50RpW9c_Zq1EjTyGEGU2kXwIM2jSqGSYnyo0gqn7RuHFE7mS0 yXgcTPdiOzqCdepP1kimEktOwNHAVPYr7YGaV78ueE-O7inkO_GaKZm5vjMlRC8FAvkjFW4xJ9Y_tlRM8UxP2qzVXNWOC 14SxgLIYmcYwuGQM7ZvCvGJEQkJmhZbJY/w456-h688/lie%20with%20statics.jpg








My Thesis chair once told me "there are liars, there are DAMN LIARS, and then there are statistations!!!" HE also said "if you torture the data long enough, it'll tell you exactly what you want to hear!"

[FUBeAR]

My Thesis chair once told me "there are liars, there are DAMN LIARS, and then there are statistations!!!" HE also said "if you torture the data long enough, it'll tell you exactly what you want to hear!"
LOL - FUBeAR don't see that kitty litter unless it's quoted - Funny cuz that analysis/model projects a 37-35 WCU WIN

https://i.imgflip.com/r40qr.jpg


Where's your Time of Possession analysis / model, MT? Let's see some of that Thesis ish!

How about some thoughts on RiddleTheYounger's triumphant ride on the ETSU Cutlass back into the Scenic City this week? Is he gonna light up the Mocs?

[The Cats]

LOL - FUBeAR don't see that kitty litter unless it's quoted -

That's kind of funny as Fubear answers every post "kitty litter" puts on the board about his reckless posts, not calling Fubear a liar, he just likes to stretch the truth...

[ElCid]

That's kind of funny as Fubear answers every post "kitty litter" puts on the board about his reckless posts, not calling Fubear a liar, he just likes to stretch the truth...

Stretches it like a rubber band.

[FUBeAR]

Stretches it like a rubber band.

https://youtu.be/vPQgfaB3S1c?feature=shared

[Chalupa Batman]

not calling Fubear a liar...

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bh1Q7NrCYAEMOox?format=jpg&name=small

[wcugrad95]

All I looked at were the bottom numbers. Unless I am reading them wrong, they showed WCU scoring more points and that was all I really cared about.

[The Cats]

All I looked at were the bottom numbers. Unless I am reading them wrong, they showed WCU scoring more points and that was all I really cared about.

Said by Furman's "resident WCU poster (the good one)"...

[wcugrad95]

Not sure I understand that post. FUBeAR’s analysis this time shows WCU scoring more points than Furman. For once I like his use of data 😀

[The Cats]

Not sure I understand that post. FUBeAR’s analysis this time shows WCU scoring more points than Furman. For once I like his use of data 

That's why you're the "good one"...

[FUBeAR]

All I looked at were the bottom numbers. Unless I am reading them wrong, they showed WCU scoring more points and that was all I really cared about.
Good deal - yep - the projection model FUBeAR cobbled together calculates a most likely score of…

WCU 37 - FU 35…which FUBeAR doesn’t think would surprise anyone.

But…FUBeAR thinks there is more to glean … and thanks to you for suggesting we look at point totals…

FUBeAR believes the prediction of the model is better viewed as a range…so, it predicts a range of…

WCU 30-44 and FU 33-37 …. So the projected outcomes range from FU 37 - WCU 30 to WCU 44 - FU 33 …. The outcome will be somewhere between a 7 point win for FU and an 11 point win for WCU.

If you can get Furman and 7.5 or more points, that’s a bet you might want to make. If you have to give 11.5 or more points to take the Catamounts, you might not want to make that bet.

Nothing about the projection surprised FUBeAR. Those ranges of scores ‘track.’

The thing that did surprise FUBeAR the most, after hearing ad infinitum about WCU ‘lighting up the scoreboard’ and ‘winning dominantly’ while Furman’s same number of wins is being characterized as ‘just barely enough’ and ‘unimpressive’ is that the over- or under-perform with respect to the Points/Points Allowed averages for both Teams’ 6 opponents is really not that dissimilar. See below…

WCU POINTS ALLOWED - 116% of AVG
FU POINTS ALLOWED - 108% of AVG - advantage FU
WCU POINTS SCORED - 136% of AVG - advantage WCU
FU POINTS SCORED - 114% of AVG

From all the WCU hype and what FUBeAR hears from the oh-so-knowledgeable FCS pundits, FUBeAR would think FU’s points scored vs. Average metric would have been more like 80% and certainly not over 100%. And he would have thought WCU’s would be at least 150%. 136% is certainly impressive, but throwing the ball into the Endzone when up by 50 and 7 seconds to play will do that for ya…along with having to keep pace when your Defense is giving up half a hundred to a Team that labored to squeeze out only 1 2nd half touchdown vs. Mercer a week later.

Y’all see anything else that is worth ‘calling out?’

[gofurman]

My Thesis chair once told me "there are liars, there are DAMN LIARS, and then there are statistations!!!" HE also said "if you torture the data long enough, it'll tell you exactly what you want to hear!"

Furman nerd here. That quote is most commonly attributed to Mark Twain. Believe it was in a book of his -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics

[FUBeAR]

This should help the Mocs some this Saturday...

https://www.wjhl.com/sports/college-sports-2/etsu-bucs/etsu-wide-receiver-dismissed-from-team/
ETSU wide receiver dismissed from team
JOHNSON CITY, Tenn. (WJHL) — East Tennessee State University senior wide receiver Einaj Carter has been dismissed from the football team, the university announced Tuesday.

FWIW - No idea what the story is here, but there is an interesting aside...Carter had an amazing year as a Freshman @ Savannah State in 2019 - National leader in Returns and an all-around WR/RB. Then came Covid in 2020...no season for Savannah State (Fall or Spring)...then FUBeAR saw that Carter had announced he was transferring to Mercer and FUBeAR liked what he saw on his videos....Then, instead, Devron Harper (a similar type of Player) came to Mercer in 2021, transferring from Gardner Webb. And...Carter stayed @ SSU and was their Leading Receiver, Returner, and 3rd Leading Rusher in 2021. Then he 'pops up' @ ETSU in 2022 and did some good things there as the Bucs 2nd or 3rd leading receiver last year - believe he caught a long TD against Furman in the 1st series. FUBeAR believes he's been injured a good bit this year, so he can probably get a medical waiver...and still have 2 years to play...somewhere....He could fit well within Samford's Offense if whatever caused this issue can be resolved/overcome...FUBeAR will keep an eye out to see if/where he 'pops up' next...but it looks like that won't be in Chattanooga this Saturday.

[bonarae]

This should help the Mocs some this Saturday...

Disciplinary actions gone inefficient? Or was he a 'cancer' to the Bucs?

[caribbeanhen]

FuBeaR, just tell us who’s winning the game… I need to make my picks

I’m leaning Furman but haven’t decided yet

[FUBeAR]

FuBeaR, just tell us who’s winning the game… I need to make my picks

I’m leaning Furman but haven’t decided yet

https://youtu.be/OWDOSnC9aCs?feature=shared

[caribbeanhen]

https://youtu.be/OWDOSnC9aCs?feature=shared

might have to resort to the force because the neighbor is running low on sacrificial Gallenas and so far it’s working the Caribbean way


Standings:


1
grizband
135


2
JacksFan40
130


3
Caribbeanhen
129


4
Crusader11
127


5
bonarae
126


5
KPSUL
126


7
MR. CHICKEN
125


7
MTfan4life
125


9
FUBeAR
124


9
mvemjsunpx
124


9
uofmman1122
124


12
Chalupa Batman
122


12
Go Lehigh TU owl
122


14
ElCid
121


14
MSUBobcat
121


16
Bisonator
120


17
atthewbon
119


17
Wapiti
119


19
Carolina010
115


19
The Cats
115


21
Catbooster
114


22
centraljerseycat
113


23
JALMOND
112


23
POD Knows
112

[FUBeAR]

might have to resort to the force because the neighbor is running low on sacrificial Gallenas and so far it’s working the Caribbean way
Standings:


3
Caribbeanhen
129


9
FUBeAR
124



Yeah - ever since FUBeAR added FUBeAR Jr. and the new Mr. Little Miss FUBeAR to his brain trust, performance has taken a nosedive. Thinking we just needed to gel as a unit. This is our 3rd week together, so we may have all the kinks ironed out and run the table.

https://media.tenor.com/te7CosXeoNcAAAAd/tim-g.gif

[kdinva]

I just looked at the two deeps for Sammy @ VMI. almost 2/3 of the names listed on Samford's side have "GR" at the class designation. hell, they should be 6-1 right now just because of that....

[FUBeAR]

I just looked at the two deeps for Sammy @ VMI. almost 2/3 of the names listed on Samford's side have "GR" at the class designation. hell, they should be 6-1 right now just because of that....
FUBeAR counted 20 unique Samford Players listed with GR as their “class designation,” including Special Teams Players.

60% of those 20 are Transfers.

There used to be a common saying among College Football Coaches..."They transfer for a reason." .... Perhaps that still applies today; even in the time of the portal.

[SU DOG]

I just looked at the two deeps for Sammy @ VMI. almost 2/3 of the names listed on Samford's side have "GR" at the class designation. hell, they should be 6-1 right now just because of that....

You know, I totally agree with that.

[ElCid]

FUBeAR counted 20 unique Players listed, including Special Teams Players.

60% of those 20 are Transfers.

There used to be a common saying among College Football Coaches..."They transfer for a reason." .... Perhaps that still applies today; even in the time of the portal.

I've said it before, having a roster that is predominantly transfers is not a good thing. It makes for a huge disconnect between students/fans and teams. You can't fill stadiums consistently with fans if you field nothing but transfers each year. Filling a hole is one thing. Fielding a team that is 50% transfers is nothing but hiring mercenaries and win at all cost thinking. The players who are doing multiple stops are beyond description.

And as you pointed out, are the transfers that good anyway? So, alienate your young players as well by replacing them with "also rans" from other schools. Good strategy!

I'm sure coaches and some fans are rationalizing away all the negative aspects of this situation. It's become purely a business for them. The thing about businesses is that the consumer (the student and fan and donor) can simply go elsewhere if the product doesn't meet their needs. I'm not sure those supporting the current trends realize how badly they are alienating their customers.

[SU DOG]

While I am not thrilled with the numbers that we have, I do know we have some really good guys who have transferred here for some good reasons. For example, one is a former Marine with extensive deployments, who may not get to play, but relocated to Birmingham and just wants to be part of a D-1 team. He transferred from a juco, was not recruited, and has been outspoken in thanking Samford for the opportunity. Another is an Auburn AL native who transferred from an Ivy school and wanted the opportunity to play at the stadium where he dreamed of. He even got the opportunity to be a starter as he played before his friends and folks there this year. I could go on with many other examples, but I'll just say also that several of our xfers were All-Academic at their previous schools.

I am definitely not thrilled with our transfer numbers, as they are way too many, but I do think our players meet Samford's standards for admittance and I don't consider them troublemakers or paid mercenaries.

[wcugrad95]

I would counter your post ElCid and say if you were winning every season my bet is most schools would still be excited about their team and coming out to games.

The challenge is can you turnover like that every year and sustain success? WCU has had crazy turnover since Bell got here, but it has been a mixture of mostly transfers the coaching staff knew/had a history with coupled with much of our core talent being the 20 or so guys that were good under the last regime along with some really good finds in recruiting.

Remember - the portal means many big schools use spots for guys to transfer. The flip side of that it also means quite a few talented high school kids are going to find their best offers come from FCS schools. I think we see some FBS level guys in the SOCON right now simply because there wasn’t room on the bigger school’s rosters.

[ElCid]

Hey don't get me wrong. There are probably a lot of unique situations where it fits for all involved. And I can stomach grad students wanting one more season somewhere. But wholesale jumping from school to school, sometimes more than once, is a bit much to support. And it isn't the few success stories that concern me. It's the ongoing morphing of the institution into one that, along with the other changes like NIL, becomes one of swapping players and players looking for the highest bidder. It's just alien to those who hold traditional values and reward those values. Like I said, anyone can rationalize it, like by winning, but it erodes the grassroots support. Maybe I'm out of date, but I would rather go .500, or less, with recruited players than 10-1 with half the squad as transfers. But that's me.

I certainly see it through a different lens as I feel a great deal of camaraderie will my fellow students and grads, including the athletes. I don't know how students and grads from other institutions view that.

[Catamount87]

Predictions

Samford vs VMI: Dogs barely dribble but hope they don't double dribble against the Roos
ETSU vs Chattanooga: Mountain bucs found some fight recently but the choo choo chugs right along
Furman vs WCU: SoCon Game of the Week and maybe game of the year. Cats hold on at home
Wofford vs Mercer: Bears don't quite maul the happless terriers.


Power Rankings

1-a. Furman - by virtue of a higher national ranking
1-b. WCU - rested up and now look to prove to be the true SoCon #1
3. Chattanooga – Bounced back and establish they are #3.
4. Mercer - Once again find themselves in the middle of the pack
5-a. Samford – 2022 was so long ago but still a danger to themselves as much as anyone
5-b. ETSU – Maybe some life left in the bucs
7. VMI – just barely out of the tie for 5th
8. Wofford – Working on their travel plans for the SoCon hapless bowl.
9. The Citadel – Booked their travel plans for the SoCon hapless bowl.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR’s Accurate Assessments


Away
Home
Time
What You’ll See


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chatt (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1P
The Return of Riddle The Younger is a great storyline. Can the LandPirates sail that ship down the Tennessee River and take the port of Chattanooga? Based on the impotence of the Mocs Offense last week, it really would not surprise FUBeAR to see another limp effort from the floppy Snakes. Where did the Offense go that hung half a hundred on the ‘78 Steelers…er, WCU (sorry it’s been confusing this week)? Is Ford now an EV? Did Chattanooga FC commandeer the Team bus to Maconga and that’s all y’all could do? All right…ETSU hangs around for a little while.

Final Score: NoOffense/NoneTaken Mocs 22 - ETSU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30P
You can throw out the record books when these 2 rivals face off in LexVegas. No kidding, Coach Hatcher said that this week. No, really…he did. VMI had a nice, gutsy win last week over a Team that really wanted to beat them. Samford looked like a Team that was trying not to look like a Team that looked like a Team that looked like a deer in headlights against Furman last week. But they are still a talented bunch of stags. If Hiers has recovered from his 10 times-sacked PTSD, the bullpups will do a little frolicking and feel better about themselves.

Final Score: Samford 52 - VMI 17


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:30P
Enough has already been said. More than enough.

Final Score: Furman 34 - WCU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
4P
Coach Cronic sounded Monday like he was ready to get back into the lab or at least on the white board to fix their Offense. Yay!! It’s hard for FUBeAR to explain, and to understand, but Mercer’s woes on Offense seem to be 90% schematic. If you haven’t watched their O game after game Cowboy-Clicker style, FUBeAR ain’t really wanna hear your dissenting opinion. If they CAN fix it, they can win out. If not, their EXCELLENT Defense keeps ‘em mostly in all 4 and they win 2. Realize the Defense has only given up 1 TD in 12 quarters of SoCon play…4 of those quarters against a ranked Team! Punt team and Offense gotta step up. Oh yeah, they’re playing Wofford this week.

Final Score: Mercer 35 - Wofford 6



FUBeAR’s Assigned Altitudes
1) Furman - Paladins avenged last year’s larceny and continue their momentum-building
2 - option A) Mercer - with a repaired Offense - (see Wofford game Assessment above)
2 - option B) WCU - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
3 - option A) WCU - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
3 - option B) Chattanooga - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
4 - option A) Chattanooga - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
4 - option B) Samford - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
5 - option A) Samford - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
5 - option B) Mercer - without a repaired Offense (see Wofford game Assessment above)
6T) ETSU
6T) VMI
8) The Citadel
9) Wofford

[kdinva]

Mercer 38; Wofford 17
WCU 42; Furman 34
Samford 35; VMI 24
UTC 38; ETSU 21

[Catamount87]

FUBeAR’s Accurate Assessments


Away
Home
Time
What You’ll See


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chatt (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1P
The Return of Riddle The Younger is a great storyline. Can the LandPirates sail that ship down the Tennessee River and take the port of Chattanooga? Based on the impotence of the Mocs Offense last week, it really would not surprise FUBeAR to see another limp effort from the floppy Snakes. Where did the Offense go that hung half a hundred on the ‘78 Steelers…er, WCU (sorry it’s been confusing this week)? Is Ford now an EV? Did Chattanooga FC commandeer the Team bus to Maconga and that’s all y’all could do? All right…ETSU hangs around for a little while.

Final Score: NoOffense/NoneTaken Mocs 22 - ETSU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30P
You can throw out the record books when these 2 rivals face off in LexVegas. No kidding, Coach Hatcher said that this week. No, really…he did. VMI had a nice, gutsy win last week over a Team that really wanted to beat them. Samford looked like a Team that was trying not to look like a Team that looked like a Team that looked like a deer in headlights against Furman last week. But they are still a talented bunch of stags. If Hiers has recovered from his 10 times-sacked PTSD, the bullpups will do a little frolicking and feel better about themselves.

Final Score: Samford 52 - VMI 17


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:30P
Enough has already been said. More than enough.

Final Score: Furman 34 - WCU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
4P
Coach Cronic sounded Monday like he was ready to get back into the lab or at least on the white board to fix their Offense. Yay!! It’s hard for FUBeAR to explain, and to understand, but Mercer’s woes on Offense seem to be 90% schematic. If you haven’t watched their O game after game Cowboy-Clicker style, FUBeAR ain’t really wanna hear your dissenting opinion. If they CAN fix it, they can win out. If not, their EXCELLENT Defense keeps ‘em mostly in all 4 and they win 2. Realize the Defense has only given up 1 TD in 12 quarters of SoCon play…4 of those quarters against a ranked Team! Punt team and Offense gotta step up. Oh yeah, they’re playing Wofford this week.

Final Score: Mercer 35 - Wofford 6



FUBeAR’s Assigned Altitudes
1) Furman - Paladins avenged last year’s larceny and continue their momentum-building
2 - option A) Mercer - with a repaired Offense - (see Wofford game Assessment above)
2 - option B) WCU - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
3 - option A) WCU - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
3 - option B) Chattanooga - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
4 - option A) Chattanooga - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
4 - option B) Samford - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
5 - option A) Samford - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
5 - option B) Mercer - without a repaired Offense (see Wofford game Assessment above)
6T) ETSU
6T) VMI
8) The Citadel
9) Wofford

Ah FUBeAR, the possessor of the optimism of a Chicago Cubs fan. You're just unwilling to accept that Mercer is a middle of the pack SoCon team this year, aren't you? Yes, they are a good team but also flawed team for certain this year.

To quote good ole Southern grandmothers everywhere, and especially in Macon, GA, "Bless your heart."

[FUBeAR]

Ah FUBeAR, the possessor of the optimism of a Chicago Cubs fan. You're just unwilling to accept that Mercer is a middle of the pack SoCon team this year, aren't you? Yes, they are a good team but also flawed team for certain this year.To quote good ole Southern grandmothers everywhere, and especially in Macon, GA, "Bless your heart."FUBeAR can tell that you can read.

Perhaps, yours is a comprehension problem or maybe scanning too quickly causes you to miss words.

Let’s try this…

FUBeAR’s words…

“Mercer’s woes on Offense seem to be 90% schematic”

and 87’s words…

“a good team but also flawed team”

Now…”woes” = “flawed”

Schematic woes (or flaws), unlike talent gaps or locker room / effort issues can be fixed, and sometimes they can be fixed quickly.

For example, FUBeAR was part of a Furman OL in ‘82 that changed our blocking schemes on every single play we ran during the week before we faced a South Carolina DL which included 3 future NFL Players and 2 All-Americans. We won the game and ran all over their Gamecock a$$e$. Coach Robbie Caldwell (now retired after winning an FBS Championship as Clemson’s OL Coach) was genius enough to devise and Coach us up to execute it. And that OL was smart and talented enough to pull it off. Their D-Front (which also included a future NFL LB) didn’t know whether to wind their a$$ or scratch their elbow all day long. Those scheme changes were the primary reason we won that game.

FUBeAR has watched every one of Mercer’s Offensive Plays - cowboy-clicker style - i.e., back and forth at least 8-10 times each play to see & evaluate what each (visible) Player is doing every play. FUBeAR has determined they have significant problems with their schemes. BUT…FUBeAR ain’t the Coach so it’s hard to tell for sure if these are truly scheme issues or just a mass lack of execution (not a lack of effort or ability) up front.

Welp, FUBeAR heard some recent comments from Coach Cronic that suggested he’s reached a conclusion similar to FUBeAR. IF that’s true AND IF Mercer’s Staff is good enough to resolve the issues AND IF Mercer’s Players (OL, TE’s, and RB’s) are smart enough to process/execute the changes FUBeAR thinks they need to make and, hopefully, they see / change also…then Mercer is FUBeAR’s #2 Team.

IF any of those IF’s do not pan out positively, they are #5.

Make sense?

Or are you still having problems processing simple English?

If you disagree and opine Mercer’s Offensive Players just aren’t good enough based on whatever informs you of that (hopefully more than stats / box scores), that’s fine…but FUBeAR disagrees … based upon his extensive observation and analysis. What FUBeAR cannot know is IF Mercer will successfully manage those IF’s. Thus, the 2 different ranking options.

[FUBeAR]

So…at this point, it is near unanimous that the peeps without a horse in the race or a cat in the fight, are picking WCU over Furman.

That tracks with all of the National FCS pundits.

Not even sure that Furman should waste the money to drive up & back.

[ElCid]

So…at this point, it is near unanimous that the peeps without a horse in the race or a cat in the fight, are picking WCU over Furman.

That tracks with all of the National FCS pundits.

Not even sure that Furman should waste the money to drive up & back.

That's about it. But you'd miss the leaves! Suffering a loss is worth that, at least. I'd go but simply can't break away. I am just about midway between Travelers Rest and Cullowhee.

[FUBeAR]

That's about it. But you'd miss the leaves! Suffering a loss is worth that, at least. I'd go but simply can't break away. I am just about midway between Travelers Rest and Cullowhee.Talking about the Furman Team probably shouldn’t waste the money to go. Should probably just forfeit and get some Players healed up in time to try to compete with Chattanooga.

FUBeAR can’t go. Little Miss FUBeAR is bringing FUBeAR’s 2 GrandDogs down from Chattanooga for a visit. So between throwing balls and discouraging yard digging, FUBeAR will watch the massacre on ESPN+…if Furman even decides to make the trip.

[FU_Paladin08]

FUBeAR’s Accurate Assessments


Away
Home
Time
What You’ll See


https://soconsports.com/images/logos/East-Tenn-State.png?width=30ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_chatta_91.png?width=30Chatt (http://www.gomocs.com/)
1P
The Return of Riddle The Younger is a great storyline. Can the LandPirates sail that ship down the Tennessee River and take the port of Chattanooga? Based on the impotence of the Mocs Offense last week, it really would not surprise FUBeAR to see another limp effort from the floppy Snakes. Where did the Offense go that hung half a hundred on the ‘78 Steelers…er, WCU (sorry it’s been confusing this week)? Is Ford now an EV? Did Chattanooga FC commandeer the Team bus to Maconga and that’s all y’all could do? All right…ETSU hangs around for a little while.

Final Score: NoOffense/NoneTaken Mocs 22 - ETSU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30P
You can throw out the record books when these 2 rivals face off in LexVegas. No kidding, Coach Hatcher said that this week. No, really…he did. VMI had a nice, gutsy win last week over a Team that really wanted to beat them. Samford looked like a Team that was trying not to look like a Team that looked like a Team that looked like a deer in headlights against Furman last week. But they are still a talented bunch of stags. If Hiers has recovered from his 10 times-sacked PTSD, the bullpups will do a little frolicking and feel better about themselves.

Final Score: Samford 52 - VMI 17


https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_furman.png?width=30Furman (http://www.furmanpaladins.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_wcu.png?width=30WCU (https://catamountsports.com/)
2:30P
Enough has already been said. More than enough.

Final Score: Furman 34 - WCU 10


https://soconsports.com/images/2023/5/30/Terriers_StackedWHITE.png?width=30Wofford (http://woffordterriers.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_mercer.png?width=30Mercer (http://www.mercerbears.com/)
4P
Coach Cronic sounded Monday like he was ready to get back into the lab or at least on the white board to fix their Offense. Yay!! It’s hard for FUBeAR to explain, and to understand, but Mercer’s woes on Offense seem to be 90% schematic. If you haven’t watched their O game after game Cowboy-Clicker style, FUBeAR ain’t really wanna hear your dissenting opinion. If they CAN fix it, they can win out. If not, their EXCELLENT Defense keeps ‘em mostly in all 4 and they win 2. Realize the Defense has only given up 1 TD in 12 quarters of SoCon play…4 of those quarters against a ranked Team! Punt team and Offense gotta step up. Oh yeah, they’re playing Wofford this week.

Final Score: Mercer 35 - Wofford 6



FUBeAR’s Assigned Altitudes
1) Furman - Paladins avenged last year’s larceny and continue their momentum-building
2 - option A) Mercer - with a repaired Offense - (see Wofford game Assessment above)
2 - option B) WCU - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
3 - option A) WCU - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
3 - option B) Chattanooga - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
4 - option A) Chattanooga - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
4 - option B) Samford - if Mercer is unable to repair their Offense
5 - option A) Samford - if Mercer is able to repair their Offense
5 - option B) Mercer - without a repaired Offense (see Wofford game Assessment above)
6T) ETSU
6T) VMI
8) The Citadel
9) Wofford

Skipped to the next post when I had to start looking at options in the rankings based on what might happen tomorrow. Good content for commentary tho.

[caribbeanhen]

So…at this point, it is near unanimous that the peeps without a horse in the race or a cat in the fight, are picking WCU over Furman.

That tracks with all of the National FCS pundits.

Not even sure that Furman should waste the money to drive up & back.

I haven’t decided yet

leaning Furman right now

[FUBeAR]

Skipped to the next post when I had to start looking at options in the rankings based on what might happen tomorrow. Good content for commentary tho.
Not “tomorrow” - Fix may have begun on Monday, but we won’t really know until after the WCU game … assuming no issues with defeating the AnkleBiters - we can get some hint of fix progress this week - if we watch closely.

[wcugrad95]

1. WCU - biggest win is bigger, and against common opponents the Cats have been more dominant than FU.
2. Furman - they can jump right back to #1 tomorrow or could fall to #3.
3. Chattanooga - if they just had that UNA game back. I expect some major bruises when the Mocs and Paladins face-off later.
4. Mercer - ranked here because of their defense. If they don’t find what FUBeAR is looking for they could do some normal “Mercering” and fall to #5.
5. Samford - had the ball with a chance to win the game against Furman. They may win out.
6. VMI - I think their defense is pretty decent and they have 2 SOCON wins.
7. ETSU - found some offense last week and could maybe scare some teams down the stretch and climb a little.
8. and 9. Wofford and Citadel - both seemed like they were going to show some strides but then Wofford went back to their old ways. The showdown on 11/11 will decide 8th vs 9th.

[FUBeAR]

1. WCU -
biggest win is bigger, and
against common opponents the Cats have been more dominant than FU
https://images.i.thechive.com/__ccb393bd0b6fa82ab3fade0da940a4fb_width-600.jpeg

[wcugrad95]

Was there any part of my ranking that was inaccurate? I didn't do a "let's rank Mercer anywhere from 2 - 5" like some posters who heard from a coach that something might change :)

Rankings are supposed to be what you have seen to date. WCU has been more impressive to date than Furman. That puts them #1. It can all change tomorrow, next Saturday, or any given Saturday from now until the end - that is what is great about AGS and FCS football.

[FUBeAR]

WCU has been more impressive to date than Furman.
https://images.i.thechive.com/__ccb393bd0b6fa82ab3fade0da940a4fb_width-600.jpeg

[kdinva]

well, VMI didn't win, VMI with two successful TD drives in first half, one late, last drive that stalled at Sammy's five yard line. otherwise a punt fest for the Keydets. Sammy's potent offense shut out the 2nd half.

27-14


FUBeAR’s Accurate Assessments


Away
Home
Time
What You’ll See


ETSU (https://etsubucs.com/)
Chatt (http://www.gomocs.com/)




https://soconsports.com/images/2019/9/23/logo_samford.png?width=30Samford (http://www.samfordsports.com/)
https://soconsports.com/images/logos/VMI_spider_four_color-2015.png?width=30VMI (https://vmikeydets.com/)
1:30P
You can throw out the record books when these 2 rivals face off in LexVegas. No kidding, Coach Hatcher said that this week. No, really…he did. VMI had a nice, gutsy win last week over a Team that really wanted to beat them. Samford looked like a Team that was trying not to look like a Team that looked like a Team that looked like a deer in headlights against Furman last week. But they are still a talented bunch of stags. If Hiers has recovered from his 10 times-sacked PTSD, the bullpups will do a little frolicking and feel better about themselves.

Final Score: Samford 52 - VMI 17

[Milktruck74]

Sad news out of Chattanooga. Ailym Ford's career is over, 125 yards of Chattanooga's all time rushing leader. He has played the last few weeks on a blown ACL. THe Team has some motivation to Win out the SoCon and send him off with a SoCon Ring!!!! Thanks to Furple for keeping that dream alive for the Mocs!!!

[kdinva]

Sad news out of Chattanooga. Ailym Ford's career is over, 125 yards of Chattanooga's all time rushing leader. He has played the last few weeks on a blown ACL.

Ouch, fine player, sad to see college career this way

[gofurman]

WOW. WOW. WOW

WCU had scored 52. 49. And 77 in their last 3 FCS GAMES. Today Vs Furman? 17. Wow

glad for the win but congrats to WCU too. I will say Furman made it our type game - RUN RUN RUN.

350 yards of rushing for FU !!!!!!! (84 for WCU)

still. WCU is a really good team. Go SoCon

[gofurman]

Sad news out of Chattanooga. Ailym Ford's career is over, 125 yards off ate. ToChattanooga's all time rushing leader. He has played the last few weeks on a blown ACL. THe Team has some motivation to Win out the SoCon and send him off with a SoCon Ring!!!! Thanks to Furple for keeping that dream alive for the Mocs!!!

hate to hear

[The Cats]

WOW. WOW. WOW

WCU had scored 52. 49. And 77 in their last 3 FCS GAMES. Today Vs Furman? 17. Wow

glad for the win but congrats to WCU too. I will say Furman made it our type game - RUN RUN RUN.

350 yards of rushing for FU !!!!!!! (84 for WCU)

still. WCU is a really good team. Go SoCon

All I can say is congrats to the Paladins, you had the good fortune to play a Reid less Catamount team. Thats not an excuse, but when you tout former scores put up by the Cats and leave out the main reason for those scores, and that he did not play but in two series of the game, you've left out a lot.

I don't know if WCU would have won with a 100% Reid in the game, but... I can say Reid would have put the Furman defense to a severe test had he not been injured.

[The Cats]

Sad news out of Chattanooga. Ailym Ford's career is over, 125 yards of Chattanooga's all time rushing leader. He has played the last few weeks on a blown ACL. THe Team has some motivation to Win out the SoCon and send him off with a SoCon Ring!!!! Thanks to Furple for keeping that dream alive for the Mocs!!!

Sorry to hear that about Ford, it's a shame when that happens. I hope the Mocs are very moviated when they play the Paladins...

[Milktruck74]

Sorry to hear that about Ford, it's a shame when that happens. I hope the Mocs are very moviated when they play the Paladins...

I think the Cats will actually be rooting louder for the Mocs than their own fans in two weeks!!!!! A three way tie makes it really difficult for the selection committee. Ha

[Mocs123]

Sorry to hear that about Ford, it's a shame when that happens. I hope the Mocs are very moviated when they play the Paladins...

The Mocs should be well motivated, but we always seem to struggle in Lexington and the Furman game only matters if we take care of business against the Keydets this week. Perhaps this is the year we get the monkey off our back as the past four years we seem to have started strong and fallen flat at the end of the season. Maybe this year will prove to be the opposite.