Red Birds vs. Penguins

[ysubigred]

YSU @ game 7 is already in the playoff mode. 7-4 will not get the flightless birds into late November play.

IL State is coming off a convincing win @ home over Indy State.

Which Penguin team shows up? "Leave no doubt," ummm.. we'll see..

GooooooooGuins.

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[Redbird 4th & short]

Hello Penguin fans ... big game for both teams' playoff chances. MVFC looks to be a lock for 5 bids, or possibly 6. And we're both fighting for the 6th bid at the moment.

YSU is certainly the 6th team to this point, with us currently the 7th. Massey computer has you 22nd and their Composite has you 16th, playing the 17th ranked SOS. Their computer has us 29th, their Composite 33rd, against 85th ranked SOS. Even Vegas likes you better ... below infers a 32-22 like score. Both teams have strong diverse offenses. So it will likely come down to who's defense shows better.

Despite last year's lethargic/inconsistent offense, we figured to be better offensively this year. Our QB can throw it .. it was just too much new last year with new OC and transfer QB, and no established receivers, plus a few too many injuries to RB and OL groups a year ago. In any case, we ultimately sucked on offense last year and only saw glimpses of what QB Annexstad could do under new OC Peterson. This year we're seeing a lot more of what they can do.

But we lost a lot from a stellar defense a year ago, not just MVFC DPOY and Buck Buchanan winner Vandeburg, but about 75% of our starters. So while we have very good defensive stats this year, it is against a weak SOS to this point. But we settled down 2nd half against SDSU, and shut out ISUb's offense last week .. their only score was a pick 6 on our 1st drive, plsu 2 punts. We then ran table 44-0 after that. Held them to 11 first downs and 168 total yards despite having their starting QB back .. we beat them as bad or worse than their 2 D-I losses. We really wish we could take a mulligan on our EIU game.

Should be a great game .. 2 strong offenses, and solid defenses, and we think we're finally playing both sides of ball well. But we shall see where we're at facing tough team like YSU on the road.

Illinois State +10

Over / under 54.5

[ysubigred]

Hello Penguin fans ... big game for both teams' playoff chances. MVFC looks to be a lock for 5 bids, or possibly 6. And we're both fighting for the 6th bid at the moment.

YSU is certainly the 6th team to this point, with us currently the 7th. Massey computer has you 22nd and their Composite has you 16th, playing the 17th ranked SOS. Their computer has us 29th, their Composite 33rd, against 85th ranked SOS. Even Vegas likes you better ... below infers a 32-22 like score. Both teams have strong diverse offenses. So it will likely come down to who's defense shows better.

Despite last year's lethargic/inconsistent offense, we figured to be better offensively this year. Our QB can throw it .. it was just too much new last year with new OC and transfer QB, and no established receivers, plus a few too many injuries to RB and OL groups a year ago. In any case, we ultimately sucked on offense last year and only saw glimpses of what QB Annexstad could do under new OC Peterson. This year we're seeing a lot more of what they can do.

But we lost a lot from a stellar defense a year ago, not just MVFC DPOY and Buck Buchanan winner Vandeburg, but about 75% of our starters. So while we have very good defensive stats this year, it is against a weak SOS to this point. But we settled down 2nd half against SDSU, and shut out ISUb's offense last week .. their only score was a pick 6 on our 1st drive, plsu 2 punts. We then ran table 44-0 after that. Held them to 11 first downs and 168 total yards despite having their starting QB back .. we beat them as bad or worse than their 2 D-I losses. We really wish we could take a mulligan on our EIU game.

Should be a great game .. 2 strong offenses, and solid defenses, and we think we're finally playing both sides of ball well. But we shall see where we're at facing tough team like YSU on the road.

Illinois State +10

Over / under 54.5Rain and a crappie day forecasted.. will be more interesting..

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[Redbird 4th & short]

Rain and a crappie day forecasted.. will be more interesting..

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accuweather says 0.10" ... so should NOT get to messy. But will be cool, windy, and a little wet at times ... as of today. So it shouldn't cause huge changes to game plans. But yes, QBs will need to be more careful in pass game depending on when rain falls.

[UNHWildcat18]

MVFC isn't getting 6 bids....

[penguinpower]

MVFC isn't getting 6 bids....

The CAA isn't getting more than 4. Weak conference

[WestCoastAggie]

The CAA isn't getting more than 4. Weak conference

4 and a possible.

[UNHWildcat18]

The CAA isn't getting more than 4. Weak conference

Lol you mad bro? Never spoke about the CAA’s bid outlook, just simply stating I highly doubt the committee gives 1/4th of the field to a single conference.

[penguinpower]

Lol you mad bro? Never spoke about the CAA’s bid outlook, just simply stating I highly doubt the committee gives 1/4th of the field to a single conference.

Not mad. Just saying that if you didn't put a limit in conferences and you actually picked the best teams it should go MVFC and then a toss up between BiG Sky and CAA. But there's a paradigm of thinking where it's not appropriate (for whatever reason) to take as many as necessary from a single conference. Optics? I don't know, but I would like to see the real top 25 play not this complete bull**** system where schools that aren't serious about football, and don't field competitive teams get auto IDs into the playoffs.

Not upset at all. More upset with the system. Now complicating it is the addition of the Stats FCS poll run by Beta Male Himself Craig Hailey. It's so slanted to his favorite teams that his assessments are disgusting. Well he gets a voice now and so does the coaches poll which basically looks like a bunch of 2 digit IQ's cast their votes based on wins and losses only (no thought out behind it because thinking is too hard).

Oh yeah and now D2 wins count
Let's just make it more ****ed up than it already is.

[BeamMeUp]

Lol you mad bro? Never spoke about the CAA’s bid outlook, just simply stating I highly doubt the committee gives 1/4th of the field to a single conference.

2021 FCS Playoffs:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. USD
4. SIU
5. UNI
6. MSU

[ysubigred]

Unfortunately, 7-4 YSU will be sitting at grandmas house on Thanksgiving.. It's been proven many times that they'll take a 7-4 BSC, SOCON, Southland, or CAA team before YSU. 7-4 UNI now that's another story..

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[MSUBobcat]

Not mad. Just saying that if you didn't put a limit in conferences and you actually picked the best teams it should go MVFC and then a toss up between BiG Sky and CAA. But there's a paradigm of thinking where it's not appropriate (for whatever reason) to take as many as necessary from a single conference. Optics? I don't know, but I would like to see the real top 25 play not this complete bull**** system where schools that aren't serious about football, and don't field competitive teams get auto IDs into the playoffs.

Not upset at all. More upset with the system. Now complicating it is the addition of the Stats FCS poll run by Beta Male Himself Craig Hailey. It's so slanted to his favorite teams that his assessments are disgusting. Well he gets a voice now and so does the coaches poll which basically looks like a bunch of 2 digit IQ's cast their votes based on wins and losses only (no thought out behind it because thinking is too hard).

Oh yeah and now D2 wins count
Let's just make it more ****ed up than it already is.

Some minor clarifications. There's 2 AQs, generally, that aren't competitive. The teams they took spots from (let's say the 6th best MVFC team) aren't going to win it all.

Next, there was literally a whole thread about how D2 wins were already counters, even before numb nutz's recent article to the contrary.

[Chalupa Batman]

2021 FCS Playoffs:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. USD
4. SIU
5. UNI
6. MSU

2018 was another year with 6 teams from one conference making the playoffs, this time the CAA:

Maine, JMU, Delaware, Elon, Stony Brook, Towson.

[ysubigred]

2018 was another year with 6 teams from one conference making the playoffs, this time the CAA:

Maine, JMU, Delaware, Elon, Stony Brook, Towson.Yup, so 6 teams from a conference is not unheard of. 7 teams would be an albatross..

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[ysubigred]

Crazy year was 2016 for MVFC playoffs..

4 teams in

8-3 SDSU auto

At large

10-1 NDSU
8-3 YSU
6-5 IL State

6 - 5 in,, wow on a 24 team field..

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[Redbird 4th & short]

Yep .. and the 6-5 ISUr went on road to 9-2 UCA and dominated for 3 qtrs before wheels fell off in Q4 on 2 special teams plays laying 10 pts in their lap. Then our defense lost all mojo, but still lost by just 7. That was also the year we beat a beat a very competitive Northwestern team (Massey #42) .. we beat them by 2 on road. Ohio St beat them by 4 at home. They beat 8-4 Pitt in bowl game that year. This was first year post Roberson/Coprich. Since 2010, MVFC has many comparable stories involving YSU, UNI, et al. of the 4th thru 6th best MVFC teams.

If you go back and look at playoff results of MVFC vs CAA or any other conference, when they get 4 to 6 bids .. MVFC has always over-performed, while CAA has always under-performed, despite getting larger share of the weak autobids from east coast conferences. The MVFC collective playoff record since 2010, excluding NDSU (.950 win rate), is right around a .650 win rate against all other conferences. And the only weak autbid we get is from Pioneer, and we share that with Big Sky .. so we get very few undeserving autobids compared to east coast / CAA.

So the notion of MVFC getting 4 to 6 bids every year has objectively proven to be well deserved. In fact, many years we should/could have gotten more bids .. just ask YSU how many times theyve stayed home with 8-4 and 7-4 records playing a top 10 SOS. They fired a HC because of this.


Crazy year was 2016 for MVFC playoffs..

4 teams in

8-3 SDSU auto

At large

10-1 NDSU
8-3 YSU
6-5 IL State

6 - 5 in,, wow on a 24 team field..

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[ysubigred]

Yep .. and the 6-5 ISUr went on road to 9-2 UCA and dominated for 3 qtrs before wheels fell off in Q4 on 2 special teams plays laying 10 pts in their lap. Then our defense lost all mojo, but still lost by just 7. That was also the year we beat a beat a very competitive Northwestern team (Massey #42) .. we beat them by 2 on road. Ohio St beat them by 4 at home. They beat 8-4 Pitt in bowl game that year. This was first year post Roberson/Coprich. Since 2010, MVFC has many comparable stories involving YSU, UNI, et al. of the 4th thru 6th best MVFC teams.

If you go back and look at playoff results of MVFC vs CAA or any other conference, when they get 4 to 6 bids .. MVFC has always over-performed, while CAA has always under-performed, despite getting larger share of the weak autobids from east coast conferences. The MVFC collective playoff record since 2010, excluding NDSU (.950 win rate), is right around a .650 win rate against all other conferences. And the only weak autbid we get is from Pioneer, and we share that with Big Sky .. so we get very few undeserving autobids compared to east coast / CAA.

So the notion of MVFC getting 4 to 6 bids every year has objectively proven to be well deserved. In fact, many years we should/could have gotten more bids .. just ask YSU how many times theyve stayed home with 8-4 and 7-4 records playing a top 10 SOS. They fired a HC because of this.Yes, sir.. YSU was National Runners Up also as ISU was a buzz saw at 6-5. Crazy how the selection committee slights YSU @ 8-3, 8-4, 7-4 playing in the MVFC, and again, I believe they know once in the flightless birds will knock out some of the FCS Darlings.





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[penguinpower]

Yep .. and the 6-5 ISUr went on road to 9-2 UCA and dominated for 3 qtrs before wheels fell off in Q4 on 2 special teams plays laying 10 pts in their lap. Then our defense lost all mojo, but still lost by just 7. That was also the year we beat a beat a very competitive Northwestern team (Massey #42) .. we beat them by 2 on road. Ohio St beat them by 4 at home. They beat 8-4 Pitt in bowl game that year. This was first year post Roberson/Coprich. Since 2010, MVFC has many comparable stories involving YSU, UNI, et al. of the 4th thru 6th best MVFC teams.

If you go back and look at playoff results of MVFC vs CAA or any other conference, when they get 4 to 6 bids .. MVFC has always over-performed, while CAA has always under-performed, despite getting larger share of the weak autobids from east coast conferences. The MVFC collective playoff record since 2010, excluding NDSU (.950 win rate), is right around a .650 win rate against all other conferences. And the only weak autbid we get is from Pioneer, and we share that with Big Sky .. so we get very few undeserving autobids compared to east coast / CAA.

So the notion of MVFC getting 4 to 6 bids every year has objectively proven to be well deserved. In fact, many years we should/could have gotten more bids .. just ask YSU how many times theyve stayed home with 8-4 and 7-4 records playing a top 10 SOS. They fired a HC because of this.

And YSU was left out after winning 4 of 5 it's last 5 games last year while Delaware was on a multiple game losing streak with the same record.

The playoff selection process is utter nonsense. The MVFC commissioner is weak. That shouldn't have happened because in years past they said you couldn't be losing 2 out of 3 or 3 out of 4 games prior to selection. That exception was made for Delaware last year.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Yes, sir.. YSU was National Runners Up also as ISU was a buzz saw at 6-5. Crazy how the selection committee slights YSU @ 8-3, 8-4, 7-4 playing in the MVFC, and again, I believe they know once in the flightless birds will knock out some of the FCS Darlings.

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Yep .. note, I had already long ago noticed YSU has gotten robbed the most going back to mid 2010's decade.

But it takes other forms ... like after dominating 2014-15 playoffs the first time we got more than 3 bids ... had to go 22-1 in OOC games, to get more than 3, and got 5 ... and we dominated in playoffs. Then a 2015-16 playoffs come .. we get 5 teams again, but they put all 5 on same side of brackets. Something that was never done before to Colonial when they were dominant in the 2000-10 era. Yet we still dominated the other conferences in playoffs, but of course knocked each other out in process too.

it also impacted SDSU, with them either not getting a seed they deserved, and/or getting repeatedly paired with NDSU to be knocked out earlier in playoff. I get regional pairings, but this really screwed their chances of making a final 4 until very recently. How many more playoff games would SDSU have won if they weren't paired with NDSU so often.

One other MVFC and ISUr story was 2019 ... we were supposedly last team in because of our QB problems and eventual injury. Some said we never should have gotten the bid. Consensus was it was a down year for MVFC. Yet we once again dominated in playoffs. ISUr smoked 2 teams on road who were considered definite favorites. MVFC got 4 in round of 16, 3 in round of 8. And we gave NDSU their toughest game in quarters, while UNI beat SDSU before giving JMU their toughest gam in quarters ... until they lost in Natty to NDSU. And many said 2019 was a down year for MVFC, so we only got 4 teams and dominated, and 2 of our 3 losses that playoff were at the hands of an MVFC team.

[UNHWildcat18]

Not mad. Just saying that if you didn't put a limit in conferences and you actually picked the best teams it should go MVFC and then a toss up between BiG Sky and CAA. But there's a paradigm of thinking where it's not appropriate (for whatever reason) to take as many as necessary from a single conference. Optics? I don't know, but I would like to see the real top 25 play not this complete bull**** system where schools that aren't serious about football, and don't field competitive teams get auto IDs into the playoffs.

Not upset at all. More upset with the system. Now complicating it is the addition of the Stats FCS poll run by Beta Male Himself Craig Hailey. It's so slanted to his favorite teams that his assessments are disgusting. Well he gets a voice now and so does the coaches poll which basically looks like a bunch of 2 digit IQ's cast their votes based on wins and losses only (no thought out behind it because thinking is too hard).

Oh yeah and now D2 wins count
Let's just make it more ****ed up than it already is.

The D2 counting in any shape is just ridiculous I agree

[UNHWildcat18]

2021 FCS Playoffs:
1. NDSU
2. SDSU
3. USD
4. SIU
5. UNI
6. MSU

Was a mistake to do it then, I doubt they repeat themselves. This year I don't think it will happen.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Nonetheless ... we're planning to kick you butts on saturday .. our little self-pity party is over !!!

xthumbsupxxdrunkyx

[Redbird 4th & short]

Was a mistake to do it then, I doubt they repeat themselves. This year I don't think it will happen.
UNH18

As to the 6 bids in 2021. it was admittedly not as stellar of a playoff year for MVFC. But here were the records and Massey SOS's going into the playoffs:

1. NDSU .. 10-1 playing Massey #15 SOS .. smoked everyone in playoff except JMU.
2. SDSU .. 8-3 playing Massey #5 SOS .. beat #14 UCD in playin, then #4 seed Sac st on road, then #5 seed Villanova on road, before falling to #8 seed Mont St on road, though Mont St finished #2 after playoff.
3. USD .. 7-4 playing Massey SOS #9, paired with SIU in playin game
4. SIU .. 7-4 playing Massey SOS #3, paired with USD in playin game at home and won
5. UNI .. 6-5 playing Massey SOS #2, paired with #4 ranked EWU on road and lost playin by 10. As for the "quality" of their 6-5 record .. they had 3 wins over playoff teams, 3 losses to playoff teams (10-14 pts, 2 of 3 on road), 1 loss to my ISUr, and 1 loss to 7-5 Iowa St by just 6 on road.
6. MSU .. 8-3 playing Massey SOS #7, paired with #13 TN Martin and lost by 1


So the only questionable bid was 6-5 UNI .. except they went 3-3 against playoff teams in reg season, also lost to 7-5 Iowa St by 6 on road, Massey SOS #7 in FBS, who lost to FBS #14 Clemson by just 7 in Bowl game. So UNI got a bid and lost to #4 EWU by 10 on road.

Curious which bubble team per Hero should have made it over the 6-5 UNI record based on SOS and actual results ?

25. Rhode Island .. 7-4 against Massey #63
26. Mercer .. 7-3 against Massey #45
27. Richmond .. 6-5 against Massey #42
28. Weber State .. 6-5 against Massey #16
29. EKU .. 7-4 against Massey #41

Only ones close are Mercer and Weber St. But Mercer played just 1 playoff team and lost. Weber St 4 playoff teams and went 1-3. And got smoked in a comparable FBS game. The other 3 are even less qualified.

[The Yo Show]

MVFC isn't getting 6 bids....

MVFC is getting at max 5 bids, but I do think they take 5... who knows could take 4, but I believe they take 5, but no way 6.

To borrow a phrase from POD, #BOOKIT

[Redbird 4th & short]

Penguin fans ... curious what you guys did defensively in the SIU game. You were averaging 2 sacks/gm but got 7 that game. Plus 4 hurries, 5 breakups, and 1 pick. SIU was only giving up 1.5 sacks/gm, but fell apart against YSU. So an outlier for both teams ... any idea how the defensive game plan came together so well against SIU ?

Don't worry, I wont say a word to Spack. :D

[penguinpower]

Penguin fans ... curious what you guys did defensively in the SIU game. You were averaging 2 sacks/gm but got 7 that game. Plus 4 hurries, 5 breakups, and 1 pick. SIU was only giving up 1.5 sacks/gm, but fell apart against YSU. So an outlier for both teams ... any idea how the defensive game plan came together so well against SIU ?

Don't worry, I wont say a word to Spack. :D

Simple. SIU LOS is undersized

[Paladin1aa]

YSU forces a 3 and out. Opens with a dominating run game. ISUr small upfront. King TD run.

YSU 7.
ISUr 0

[Paladin1aa]

ISUr another 3 and out. YSU D looks great.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Looks way to much like our EIU game so far. Nice start for Penguns.

[Redbird 4th & short]

YSU forces a 3 and out. Opens with a dominating run game. ISUr small upfront. King TD run.

YSU 7.
ISUr 0

This is our main issue on defense .. we are nowhere near as stout as we usually are. Shows up against good teams.

[Paladin1aa]

Birds 27 TD pass

7 all

[Redbird 4th & short]

There we go .. .. our placekicking is not good, but tied it up.

[Redbird 4th & short]

yeesh

[Paladin1aa]

YSU 72 yd TD pass

YSU 14-7

[Paladin1aa]

Birds TD pass.

14 all

Same YSU problem. Pass D is weak.

[Redbird 4th & short]

so our top 3 pass catchers are 2 original non-schollie guys .. Sobkowicz (38 catches thru today so far), Kasper (27, injured). And then D-II transfer TE Grandy (32 thru today).

Geez our run defense is bad.

edit ... Geez our run and pass defense is bad.

[Paladin1aa]

Oliver TD pass catch.

YSU 21-14

[Paladin1aa]

Birds 4 yd TD pass

21 all

[Redbird 4th & short]

Big run by Wenkers Wright. This guy can play, but been playing banged up on and off for 2 years. Talented with great frame, but never seems 100%.

[Redbird 4th & short]

our run defense settled down 2nd half against SDSU ... we're hoping same against you guys. Otherwise .. yikes.

[Paladin1aa]

YSU TD bomb.

YSU 28-21

D struggle, lol

[Redbird 4th & short]

our run defense settled down 2nd half against SDSU ... we're hoping same against you guys. Otherwise .. yikes.

wow, awful defense. This is so not a Spack team .. defense or offense.

[Redbird 4th & short]

announcer needs to stop talking about our defense stats ... we've played 1 good team of the 6 so far. Our Massey SOS is #85 despite playing SDSU.

[Paladin1aa]

Birds TD pass.

28 all. Still 1st half.

Never saw a shoot out coming

[Paladin1aa]

Half time 28 all.

YSu secondary is garbage.

[Redbird 4th & short]

Half time 28 all.

YSu secondary is garbage.

don't under-estimate how garbage ours has been ... 2 wide open blown coverages, and another beat deep. Run defense seems worse.

[Paladin1aa]

YSU gets an INT.


YSu start with run to Birds 23

[Paladin1aa]

YSU FG

YSU 31-28

[Paladin1aa]

Bird jet sweep for TD.

Birds 35-31

[The Yo Show]

35-31 red birds

[The Yo Show]

38 - 35 penguins

[Paladin1aa]

YSU TD pass

YSU 38-35

[The Yo Show]

That was running into the kicker not roughing

[ysubigred]

That was running into the kicker not roughingUmm.. who cares.. this no talent, no discipline, no coaches team is hard to watch.

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[Paladin1aa]

Birds FG

38 all

late 4th

[The Yo Show]

Umm.. who cares.. this no talent, no discipline, no coaches team is hard to watch.

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It made a difference there though led them to a field goal

[The Yo Show]

Field goal to decide it.

[Paladin1aa]

4 seconds to go. 37 yd FG coming up for YSU

- - - Updated - - -

YSU FG good.

YSU 41-38

[ysubigred]

It made a difference there though led them to a field goalThese mental break downs are killing them.

Winner never the less [emoji3059][emoji7][emoji3060]

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[ysubigred]

WTF was Spack thinking.. I give him the YSU game ball.

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[Redbird 4th & short]

WTF was Spack thinking.. I give him the YSU game ball.

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Followed stats 2nd half and wondered wtf we called timeout for. Great game.. congrats !

[Paladin1aa]

Dont have to sleep on this one. YSU wins 41-38, but lucky as he11 to do that -

coaching staff is trash
we have too many undisciplined players on the field making stupid mistakes
we had a RB ( King) with over 100 yds the 1st half. We don’t use him enough playing an inferior local RB
our secondary is garbage
my preseason prediction was for 6-5, even with experienced OL, great WRs and other talent including a tough D
we will finish at best 7-4 but 6-5 is very possible
havent recruited a QB in forever. Hint - Brungard isn’t the answer
recruiting in Dec is critical. Too many holes to fill.
very disappointing on a hopeful year.
The Zips need help. Hope they hire our HC Mr. Principal and his H.S. OC and DC

[BeamMeUp]

I will take an ugly win over another loss. Let's be real here... if we had won last week it would have been an ugly win as well. This league is tough and it is loaded with challenging teams. We found a way to win, which at the end of the day is what ultimately matters.

4-3 with Missouri State and Indiana State ahead. Keep on winning.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Nice win 'Guins!