AGS Top 25 - How They Fared - Week 6, Fall 2023

[Preferred Walk-On]

We are now (almost) officially halfway through the FCS season. With one game still in progress (SFA @ UTech), I present to you this week's How They Fared (which will be completely updated by morning...or sooner).

CLICK HERE (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gFMN8MqP4KMLjZ0I5gjTkypI_xELXoYl3pwSQc59mm4/edit?usp=sharing) to see what happened this week in FCS and for links to each box score/game summary (by clicking on the score of each game). Enjoy!

[dewey]

Thanks for doing these each week!

Dewey

[kdinva]

thank you

[Preferred Walk-On]

Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, and Southern Illinois...thoughts?

William & Mary, Albany, and Rhode Island...thoughts?

Northern Arizona and Central Arkansas..thoughts?

[skinny_uncle]

Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, and Southern Illinois...thoughts?

William & Mary, Albany, and Rhode Island...thoughts?

Northern Arizona and Central Arkansas..thoughts?
SIU laid an egg. Hoping they can bounce back next game.

[FUBeAR]

Figuring WCU moves into the Top 5 just behind Furman, does Chattanooga get into the Top 10 or just Top 15?

[Preferred Walk-On]

SIU laid an egg. Hoping they can bounce back next game.

So is UNI>YSU>SIU a fair assessment, and if not, what should one be looking at?

[atthewbon]

So is UNI>YSU>SIU a fair assessment, and if not, what should one be looking at?

I'm still debating it, but in my poll I currently have YSU>SIU>UNI. The UNI loss against Weber St is looking worse, and they were not impressive against Indiana St. I can see an argument for any order for these and many other teams. I'm really struggling with the rankings this week. There are really only 3 teams (the top 3) where I feel good about their position.

[Chalupa Batman]

So is UNI>YSU>SIU a fair assessment, and if not, what should one be looking at?

I know UNI beat YSU a week ago, but after this past week I would have YSU>UNI>SIU. The Penguins looked so dominant/the Salukis looked so bad coupled with UNI struggling with Indiana State that’s the order I have but it’s close between YSU/UNI.

[Dane96]

Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, and Southern Illinois...thoughts?

William & Mary, Albany, and Rhode Island...thoughts?

Northern Arizona and Central Arkansas..thoughts?

Albany was down 4 starters, then lost a fifth on the second possession. Two starting OLs, 2 WRs, and a Safety. Towson is much better than people think. Super physical game. I think Towson finally is gelling with all their new guys. Albany went for it on 4th and 6 instead of taking a 28 yard FG with a lights out kicker or the score would have been 27-17. Albany is a 15-20 team IMHO. Albany is 4-0 vs FCS comp, with an average margin of victory of almost 14 points a game. They have played 4 of 6 games on the road. Took both Marshall (very good G5, almost took down NC State) and Hawaii (suspect G5, but a 6000 mile trip after playing Marshall the week before) to the limit.

Not a world beater...but a solid 15-20 team.

UNH next week is going to be a nightmare. Albany has the injuries and UNH has had a week to prepare. Albany-UNH games are always a battle...and the game is UNH homecoming. For anyone who hasn't been to UNH homecoming, it's a great, amazing **** show. UNH is the clear favorite irrespective of record due to all the above. If Albany walks out of Durham with a win, Albany is a 10-14 level team, if not better.

[CrusaderBob]

Not a voter here and obviously biased ... but a couple observations about the swings here ...


What's the thinking that says Western Carolina can squeek out a win over # 20 Chatanooga and in at least 1 persons mind move up 4 spots passing 2 teams that won (1 convincingly) and an idle team?

Week 5, Holy Cross lost by 10 (in a game that never really felt that close because of HC turnovers) to then #37 Harvard and dropped 8 spots.

This week Southern Illinois was dominated by #37 Youngstown State. Seems to me, the Salukis should drop somewhere around 8=10 spots in everyone's poll and the Penguins should move to the upper teens (+15-20 spots) as Harvard did.

I know every week is different and who wins and who loses determines movement as each school builds a season long resume, but if the movement is not similar this week to last week for YSU & SIU I'd be very curious to hear the thought process.

[wcugrad95]

Why would WCU be behind Furman? Western is one of a handful of teams with wins against multiple top-20 teams and has a much more dominant win over a common opponent (Citadel). Furman at 4 or 5 means WCU at 3 or 4 😀

[crusader11]

Figuring WCU moves into the Top 5 just behind Furman, does Chattanooga get into the Top 10 or just Top 15?

I have WCU 5 and Furman 6 in mine.

Not so much a slight against Furman, more so I’ve been so damn impressed with WCU, who they’ve beaten, and how they’ve beaten them. I think I was one of the only voters who had them in my preseason top 25, so the validation is nice.

Plus, in the only common opponent that WCU and Furman have (Citadel), WCU was much more dominant.

[CrusaderBob]

Why would they be ahead of North Dakota State or Incarnate Word? I'm not trying to be critical of Western Carolina, but the consistency of how people vote.

I'm talking relatively on each voter's ballot. If you had Western Carolina ahead of Furman, Sacramento State, & Incarnate Word last week, their win doesn't change much in the top 4-5 on your ballot. But if the other voters combined to put Western Carolina at 9, I do not understand a 2 point win on with a time expiring FG where you gave up 50 points moves a team from 9 to 4. To 6 or 7 given the rest of the results this week, sure. But I don't see how they jump 5 spots on anyone's ballot given how everything ahead of them went this week.

That's all. It's all opinion and I was responding to one post. The results will tell more than my speculation.

[crusader11]

Bob, unsure if your post is directed at me (I don't think so) but here goes...

I've been high on WCU all season. Last week, I had them at 7 in my poll. Here's how my top ten looked --

1: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
2: Montana State Bobcats
3: Idaho Vandals
4: Sac State Hornets
5: Furman Paladins
6: Southern Illinois Salukis
7: Western Carolina Catamounts
8: Incarnate Word Cardinals
9: North Dakota State Bison
10: Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens

So obviously Southern Illinois is going to drop big time after getting blown out by Youngstown. And I decided to have WCU leapfrog Furman by virtue of their results against a common opponent (Citadel).

Who were you referring to with your post?

For what it's worth, if I had WCU below UIW, I'd move WCU ahead of UIW this week. Their win on the road against a fringe top 25 team in Chattanooga is far better than UIW escaping at home against SELA. UIW dropped two places in my poll this week.

[wcugrad95]

Full-disclosure, I am a WCU homer and I do not have them that high. But 2 wins against top-20 teams (the last one scoring 52 points against what most people thought was a really good defense on the road) means WCU is proving each week they are better than we thought. Many of the other top-20 teams are there because they have been good in the past and there is simply an expectation that they are good again. If you are going to judge teams on what they are doing this season then WCU is the poster-child for being a fast climber. That can all change with back-to-back games against Furman and Mercer after our bye. But the great thing about the AGS board is that most voters try to truly recognize what teams are doing right here, right now. And not what last season or the past 10 years means. WCU can be top-5 tomorrow and drop like a rock 3 weeks from now.

[wcugrad95]

Deleted my post - wasn't instructed on the rules about posting, and don't want to influence any of you with my entry-level thoughts xlolx

[Preferred Walk-On]

All of my posturing now in place, I am a first time voter. I honestly want to be as fair as I can, and am clearly more knowledgeable about teams in the South East than in other parts of the country. But I do my best to read up on many threads here, watch parts of or at least highlights from other top-ranked teams, and check box scores and stats from as many games as I can. I purposefully am slow-playing WCU because I want us to be an underdog against everybody we play, and I truthfully think there are 3 or 4 SOCON teams that are worthy of being in the top-25 based on their current rosters/coaches and their season-to-date results (along with my eyeballs watching so many games). I would welcome constructive criticism and questions on who I put where vs who I included and left out. I want to be a solid voter, and expect this forum to help me be so.

Hello wcugrad95,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 10/8/2023 8:08:26



Was just going to say that we normally have a practice of discussing teams, but try to do so without stating ranking positions or posting our votes until after the week’s poll is released. I do appreciate the enthusiasm though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FUBeAR]

😀
FYP

[Catbooster]

All of my posturing now in place, I am a first time voter. I honestly want to be as fair as I can, and am clearly more knowledgeable about teams in the South East than in other parts of the country. But I do my best to read up on many threads here, watch parts of or at least highlights from other top-ranked teams, and check box scores and stats from as many games as I can. I purposefully am slow-playing WCU because I want us to be an underdog against everybody we play, and I truthfully think there are 3 or 4 SOCON teams that are worthy of being in the top-25 based on their current rosters/coaches and their season-to-date results (along with my eyeballs watching so many games). I would welcome constructive criticism and questions on who I put where vs who I included and left out. I want to be a solid voter, and expect this forum to help me be so.

Hello wcugrad95,

We have received your AGS Top 25 vote on 10/8/2023 8:08:26

Your vote is listed below.

Have at it!!!
I'm not sure if it is an unofficial or official rule for voters, but as PWO said, we don't post votes until after the poll is released. We discuss teams relative to each other, upward/downward movement, etc. but not actual rankings until after the poll is released Monday. But thanks for being open to and seeking criticism.

[wcugrad95]

Appreciate this as a newbie voter but long-time member. Not sure what it matters once my vote is in, but I am happy to abide by the unofficial rules. I certainly look forward to the discussion to come.

[MSUBobcat]

Appreciate this as a newbie voter but long-time member. Not sure what it matters once my vote is in, but I am happy to abide by the unofficial rules. I certainly look forward to the discussion to come.

If people posted their polls prior to the final tally, it may influence someone who hasn't yet submitted their poll.

[wcugrad95]

Done - didn't expect my ramblings would impact or influence any of you guys. I'll wait and post really late going forward.

[Chalupa Batman]

Done - didn't expect my ramblings would impact or influence any of you guys. I'll wait and post really late going forward.

You wouldn't have needed to delete your entire post, just the poll. The rest was good stuff. You could have left the part that PWO left in his quote of your post.

People start posting their polls once the AGS poll is released, which is usually around 1pm ET on Mondays.



Please go back and delete your post.


I'm not sure if it is an unofficial or official rule for voters, but as PWO said, we don't post votes until after the poll is released. We discuss teams relative to each other, upward/downward movement, etc. but not actual rankings until after the poll is released Monday. But thanks for being open to and seeking criticism.

You two should go back and delete his poll from your quotes of his post as well.

[CrusaderBob]

Sorry for starting this. I've been around these parts primarily as a lurker for many years and do not want to upset was I think is great evaluation of the top teams in FCS.

[TheKingpin28]

I know Northern Arizona needs to win games, but this could be a team that receives votes with their wins over Montana and Weber State and their extremely close game against Sac St.

[wcugrad95]

NAU and Montana are really hard to judge. Many thought Montana was garbage after they lost to NAU and they needed to be jettisoned out of the top-25, but they simply keep winning and are checking in at 5-1. The Griz will be seriously tested in the next 5 weeks with games against Idaho, Sac St, and Montana St at the end. If they lose 3 of their last 5 to finish 7-4 then NAU's win is not as impressive. In the end, it is about how many games you win and not about how many you played close - so NAU's performance so far is TBD on if they are decent, or if some of the teams they beat or hung with (Montana, Sac St, Weber St) are good or not. Right now the Lumberjacks are 2-4 so hard for people to give them votes. Given what they have left, I expect them to finish around 4-7 or 5-6. Rankings aren't supposed to be forward-looking, but a potential 5-6 at best team is a tough sell.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Not a voter here and obviously biased ... but a couple observations about the swings here ...


What's the thinking that says Western Carolina can squeek out a win over # 20 Chatanooga and in at least 1 persons mind move up 4 spots passing 2 teams that won (1 convincingly) and an idle team?

Week 5, Holy Cross lost by 10 (in a game that never really felt that close because of HC turnovers) to then #37 Harvard and dropped 8 spots.

This week Southern Illinois was dominated by #37 Youngstown State. Seems to me, the Salukis should drop somewhere around 8=10 spots in everyone's poll and the Penguins should move to the upper teens (+15-20 spots) as Harvard did.

I know every week is different and who wins and who loses determines movement as each school builds a season long resume, but if the movement is not similar this week to last week for YSU & SIU I'd be very curious to hear the thought process.

I had YSU #12 last week, dropped them to UR now I have them back at #16, SIU I dropped from #6 to barely inside the Top 20. I dropped Holy Cross, YSU, NDSU and W&M all 12-14 spots or so last week with the caveat all have ample opportunities to work their way back up. W&M is out of my poll and based on their offense I don't see a return unless they finish 8-3 or better. I think HC, NDSU, will re-solidify themselves, not sure about YSU. They have legit talent but there seems to be an impending "choke" element in Northeast Ohio,

NC Central just wins baby! UT-Martin has quietly emerged as a very good program! Impressive given the institution's modest resources.....

[caribbeanhen]

NC Central would de fang The Rattlers of Tallahassee

[TheKingpin28]

NAU and Montana are really hard to judge. Many thought Montana was garbage after they lost to NAU and they needed to be jettisoned out of the top-25, but they simply keep winning and are checking in at 5-1. The Griz will be seriously tested in the next 5 weeks with games against Idaho, Sac St, and Montana St at the end. If they lose 3 of their last 5 to finish 7-4 then NAU's win is not as impressive. In the end, it is about how many games you win and not about how many you played close - so NAU's performance so far is TBD on if they are decent, or if some of the teams they beat or hung with (Montana, Sac St, Weber St) are good or not. Right now the Lumberjacks are 2-4 so hard for people to give them votes. Given what they have left, I expect them to finish around 4-7 or 5-6. Rankings aren't supposed to be forward-looking, but a potential 5-6 at best team is a tough sell.No disagreement there but if EWU is ranked this week, you'd be hard pressed to leave NAU out then. When comparing their resumes to each other, zero reason to have EWU in if NAU is out.

Montana and WSU look a lot better than SELA and UCD since Montana just beat UCD and NAU trounced Montana.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

[crusader11]

No disagreement there but if EWU is ranked this week, you'd be hard pressed to leave NAU out then. When comparing their resumes to each other, zero reason to have EWU in if NAU is out.

Montana and WSU look a lot better than SELA and UCD since Montana just beat UCD and NAU trounced Montana.

Sent from my SM-A546U1 using Tapatalk

Big difference is NAU’s lost to 2-4 Utah Tech (blown out by the Montanas and Missouri St). EWU doesn’t have a bad loss.

[WileECoyote06]

NC Central should be breathing down the neck of the top ten.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Just a little under 2 hrs. to cast your ballot voters so please go do that now if you have not yet.

[caribbeanhen]

NC Central should be breathing down the neck of the top ten.

I agree with that

[crusader11]

NC Central should be breathing down the neck of the top ten.

I was skeptical for a while, but beating Campbell and Elon back-to-back weeks -- the latter of which in convincing fashion -- has my attention and climbing in my poll.

Wish we could see these guys in the playoffs. Just like Harvard.

Sigh.

[SeattleCat]

Preparing for flaming, but.... Northern Arizona's continued tough play and wins are giving them some more cred in my book and have pushed the grizzlies back into my top 25.

[WileECoyote06]

I was skeptical for a while, but beating Campbell and Elon back-to-back weeks -- the latter of which in convincing fashion -- has my attention and climbing in my poll.

Wish we could see these guys in the playoffs. Just like Harvard.

Sigh.

Well we aren't eliminated. Have to win the conference to earn a Celebration Bowl bid. With our five game "tourney", one loss can put you out of the Celebration Bowl. At 9-2 with 4 OOC wins, we should be attractive for an at-large bid.

Sidebar: I'd rather go to Atlanta. xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

I was skeptical for a while, but beating Campbell and Elon back-to-back weeks -- the latter of which in convincing fashion -- has my attention and climbing in my poll.

Wish we could see these guys in the playoffs. Just like Harvard.

Sigh.

Would give the playoffs some juice

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm not sure if it is an unofficial or official rule for voters, but as PWO said, we don't post votes until after the poll is released. We discuss teams relative to each other, upward/downward movement, etc. but not actual rankings until after the poll is released Monday. But thanks for being open to and seeking criticism.

It is an official rule. Thank you all for getting it gone quickly and then editing your own posts. I appreciate your help very much.

wcu is new and mistakes are made but glad we have that lesson covered going forward.xthumbsupx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Done - didn't expect my ramblings would impact or influence any of you guys. I'll wait and post really late going forward.

It is not really abut individual votes but it applies to everyone...think of it this way. If we have 20 or so people posting their ballot before the poll is up and someone waits until the last hour to vote. If they have seen many of those other voters putting WCU or pick any team at a certain range but they thought that team should be higher...will it affect their vote?

Maybe, maybe not. This way though we don't have to concern ourselves with that.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Voters you have a little over a 1/2 hr. left to cast the ballots.